WEBVTT - Bloomberg Businessweek Weekend - February 3rd, 2023

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg business Week Inside from the reporters and

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<v Speaker 1>editors who bring you America's most trusted business magazine, plus

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<v Speaker 1>global business, finance and tech news. The Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>Podcast with Carol Maser and Tim Stinebec from Bloomberg Radio

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<v Speaker 1>with us Now. Is Bloomberg your senior markets reporter Katie Greifeld.

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<v Speaker 1>She co wrote the story essentially investors, Katie, I gotta

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<v Speaker 1>tell you it seems like they're fighting the FED right now.

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<v Speaker 1>And for also congratulations on the cover story. Thank you. Yeah,

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<v Speaker 1>it was definitely a career milestone, and it does seem

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<v Speaker 1>like people are fighting the Fed. We've been here before,

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<v Speaker 1>but is this time different. A lot of people would

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<v Speaker 1>tell you it is because they actually have the data

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<v Speaker 1>on their side. I mean, we've gotten six consecutive months

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<v Speaker 1>of headline CPI coming down. You're seeing other measures start

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<v Speaker 1>to roll over as well. Employment costs have gone down.

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<v Speaker 1>So I mean the people lining up again to bet

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<v Speaker 1>against the Fed, but that they will actually have to

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<v Speaker 1>cut rates this year. They've got a lot of ammunition

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<v Speaker 1>on their side. And the Fed, I don't know. We

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<v Speaker 1>heard from Jerome Pale just this week. It doesn't seem

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<v Speaker 1>like he's necessarily pushing back as forcefully as might have

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<v Speaker 1>been expected at this point. All right, can we take

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<v Speaker 1>a step back. Joe Weber comes to you, the editor

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<v Speaker 1>of the magazine, May Katie Big FED meeting first one,

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<v Speaker 1>talk to us a little bit about the conversation you

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<v Speaker 1>guys had and what you were thinking about, kind of

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<v Speaker 1>going into what you guys wanted to put out there.

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<v Speaker 1>I will just say Joel kept us on our toes.

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<v Speaker 1>We didn't know until the afternoon the day before that

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<v Speaker 1>it was going to be the cover, so that was

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<v Speaker 1>a fun surprise. But Liz McCormick and I work really

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<v Speaker 1>closely together, you know, we've known each other for years,

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<v Speaker 1>and where she sits on the bond side, where I

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<v Speaker 1>sit on the cross asset side. It just made sense

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<v Speaker 1>if you look across asset classes right now, there's so

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<v Speaker 1>much optimism built into every market on the idea that

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<v Speaker 1>the FED is actually going to pause rates. So that

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<v Speaker 1>was the genesis of this story, because I mean, the

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<v Speaker 1>thing you hear over and over again it's so tired,

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<v Speaker 1>don't fight the FED is exactly what's happening in every

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<v Speaker 1>single market right now. So listen, I got together as

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<v Speaker 1>it happened. Joel was looking for a big, sweepy take

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<v Speaker 1>on this FED meeting, so it came together really quickly

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<v Speaker 1>and really nicely. I have to say, it's pretty remarkable.

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<v Speaker 1>The feeling of risk on all of a sudden here

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<v Speaker 1>in very different. I don't know if everybody was just

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<v Speaker 1>tired of all the selling that went on in two

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<v Speaker 1>But what's interesting is is it the market people keep

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<v Speaker 1>tweeting to me, Hey, the market is forward looking? Is

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<v Speaker 1>it the case that they are looking forward to the

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<v Speaker 1>FED slowing down, stopping at some point, whether it's this

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<v Speaker 1>year or early next year, and that maybe things are

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<v Speaker 1>better in the second half. That's the rub that it

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<v Speaker 1>is a discounting mechanism. And I mean, there's been so

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<v Speaker 1>many moments just in the past few years where the

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<v Speaker 1>market is seemingly at odds, which with what's actually happening

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<v Speaker 1>in the economy. So it's totally possible that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>we priced in the recession last year. Wall Street now

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<v Speaker 1>is saying it's going to be short and shallow. They're

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<v Speaker 1>looking ahead to a brighter future, or they're saying, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>maybe there is going to be a downturn that causes

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<v Speaker 1>the FED to cut But what's interesting about the complexion

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<v Speaker 1>of this risk on rally is whether it ultimately backfires.

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<v Speaker 1>If you think about things such as financial conditions, which

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<v Speaker 1>we know the FED watches. If you look at market

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<v Speaker 1>based measures of financial conditions, which are very popular on

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<v Speaker 1>Wall Street, they've been easing, and Pale and Company have

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<v Speaker 1>you know, said repeatedly that financial conditions, the tightening of

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<v Speaker 1>those sort of measures are how monetary policy actually touches

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<v Speaker 1>the real economy. You know, influences the wealth effect that

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<v Speaker 1>people feel, It influences how comfortable companies feel about issuing

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<v Speaker 1>dead and piling on leverage. If you do have financial

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<v Speaker 1>conditions easing at the same time that the FED is

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<v Speaker 1>trying to take the economy off the boil, those two

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<v Speaker 1>are kind of working at cross purposes. I was pretty

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<v Speaker 1>struck by this one comment from one Neil cash Car,

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<v Speaker 1>the president of the Minneapolis FED. Here's what he said, quote,

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<v Speaker 1>I've spent enough time around Wall Street to know that

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<v Speaker 1>they are culturally, in institutionally optimistic. This is a guy

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<v Speaker 1>when we go up, he's a guy who spent um

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<v Speaker 1>kind of pushing back against rallies, and it's interesting for

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<v Speaker 1>him to be doing this because this is a guy

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<v Speaker 1>who's traditionally known as being dubbish, and he's increasingly now

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<v Speaker 1>seen as hawkish. How should we read into his comment, Well,

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<v Speaker 1>you forgot the best part of the quote. So this

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<v Speaker 1>is from a New York Times profile. Uh. The author

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<v Speaker 1>asked him about the fact that you do have the

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<v Speaker 1>market pricing in rate cuts against what the central bank

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<v Speaker 1>is saying, and he said, referring to the markets, they

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<v Speaker 1>are going to lose the game of chicken. I can

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<v Speaker 1>tell you that. So that's Neil cush Car saying I

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<v Speaker 1>dare you to b yeah, basically saying like you are

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<v Speaker 1>going to lose money here. So the fact that you

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<v Speaker 1>did again have a president of the Minneapolis FED saying that, uh,

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<v Speaker 1>is pretty amazing. We'll see in the next few days.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, after we get a FED meeting, you hear

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<v Speaker 1>from Jerome pal the markets move. In the next few days,

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<v Speaker 1>you have a bunch of FED speakers come out and

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<v Speaker 1>either confirm or walk back that message. So the next

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<v Speaker 1>two days are gonna be critical. I think I agree

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<v Speaker 1>with you, Like it's gonna be so interesting because many

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<v Speaker 1>people set off of j. Powell at that first FED

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<v Speaker 1>meeting that it was kind of like he gave everybody something.

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<v Speaker 1>The hawk's got something that does get something. So it

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<v Speaker 1>was like, what bird, what bird is this? I don't know. Well,

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<v Speaker 1>what's interesting too is you know we are off peak

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<v Speaker 1>inflation right, the trend lines are in our favor, and

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<v Speaker 1>I do wonder the job market holding up. I know

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<v Speaker 1>that's frustrating for the Fed, but it also shows maybe

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<v Speaker 1>we could get to that soft landing. I mean, markets

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<v Speaker 1>could be right. It's like, how do you cross that

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<v Speaker 1>with that whole idea of don't fight the Fed. That's

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<v Speaker 1>the thing, like, we could be right this time. We

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<v Speaker 1>could also turn into a situation into a stop and

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<v Speaker 1>start sort of fed. Maybe they do pause, but maybe

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<v Speaker 1>the next move after the pause isn't a rate cut.

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<v Speaker 1>Maybe they have to hike again if inflation doesn't come.

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<v Speaker 1>But they talked about right, didn't Jay say he goes

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<v Speaker 1>doesn't want to stop and then start again? Yeah, he

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<v Speaker 1>definitely got some questions to that effect on Wednesday. I

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<v Speaker 1>feel like he did a polite little tap dance around it.

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<v Speaker 1>But in terms of what actually pans out this time,

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, the market does have a pretty fraud history

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<v Speaker 1>in fighting the FED. I mean I remember when the September.

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<v Speaker 1>Pause was a conversation for about two weeks at this meeting.

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<v Speaker 1>At one point this past summer, there had been a

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<v Speaker 1>cut priced in for February, which obviously didn't happen. So

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<v Speaker 1>this happens. I mean even again, don't fight the Fed.

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<v Speaker 1>It's one of the most tired sayings in finance, and

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<v Speaker 1>yet we do this every single cycle. It's like Luciana

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<v Speaker 1>Charlie Brown. Yeah, they're going to pull the football. But

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<v Speaker 1>the thing is is the football hasn't been pulled yet

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<v Speaker 1>now and and and there has to be a certain point, Katie,

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<v Speaker 1>when the football isn't pulled, when there is indeed evidence

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<v Speaker 1>from the economy. Wait, so what's the football helping? The

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<v Speaker 1>football is okay, so you know in peanuts, Yeah for sure.

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<v Speaker 1>When Charlie Brown tries to kick the football and over

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<v Speaker 1>and over again, he gets fooled. Yeah, Lucy pulls it.

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<v Speaker 1>And this is like the whole idea of the market's thinking, Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>well we think you're done, so the markets are Lucy,

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<v Speaker 1>no fed the FED chairs Lucy. Okay, I really I

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<v Speaker 1>really want to work with you guys, mat or maybe

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<v Speaker 1>or maybe like potential potential cutting of rates is the football. Okay,

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<v Speaker 1>so maybe this was a bad idea now, but the

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<v Speaker 1>idea of kind of what you write that the markets

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<v Speaker 1>keep thinking one way and J Powell yeah, is kind

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<v Speaker 1>of Lucy, I'm pulling the football kids. We're gonna keep

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<v Speaker 1>raising rates and so they keeping In this case, he's

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<v Speaker 1>being open about it. That's that's the difference I think

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<v Speaker 1>Carol is isn't he always open? Yeah? But but he's

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<v Speaker 1>not like Lucy right, Like, he's not fooling anyone that.

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<v Speaker 1>This is why I like Snoopy. Snoopy is very clear,

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<v Speaker 1>the red baron is clear. Um. Having said this, I

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<v Speaker 1>guess time will tell. But it is interesting when you

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<v Speaker 1>see traders pricing in one thing in the markets, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>especially if you like the bond market, the fixing very

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<v Speaker 1>smart market. And I mean a point to to make

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<v Speaker 1>here which has been made to me, is that you know,

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<v Speaker 1>market participants, investors very loud voices. They get to change

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<v Speaker 1>their mine on the FED every single hour, every single

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<v Speaker 1>day if they want to. Whereas we only hear from

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<v Speaker 1>the Fed in very scheduled regular appearances. We're not going

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<v Speaker 1>to get an update on their dot plot at the

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<v Speaker 1>Summary of Economic Projections until March so there's a long

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<v Speaker 1>time between those sort of updates that we all care

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<v Speaker 1>about and focus on so deeply. Whereas you know we can,

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<v Speaker 1>i mean, public opinion consensus changes so quickly, the FED

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<v Speaker 1>by design doesn't do that. You're in the simulcast with this,

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<v Speaker 1>I feel like we'd go round and round the same conversation.

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<v Speaker 1>The one thing that does stick with me that is

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<v Speaker 1>j Pal saying we're gonna get back to two. So

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<v Speaker 1>that is really their benchmark, and they don't deviate from

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<v Speaker 1>that debate from it, then they're going to have to

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<v Speaker 1>keep raising race. That's the thing. That's where financial conditions

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<v Speaker 1>come in because again, when you think about headline CPI

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<v Speaker 1>at nine point one percent, it's a lot easier to

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<v Speaker 1>get to six and a half percent than it is

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<v Speaker 1>to get to two percent. And that's where you know,

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<v Speaker 1>that's where you maybe need to see some labor market pain.

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<v Speaker 1>We haven't seen it yet, we haven't needed to. But

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<v Speaker 1>to get it back to that benchmark, which they had

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<v Speaker 1>a chance to deviate from, they explicitly said they're not.

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<v Speaker 1>That is a lot more would to chop and they're

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<v Speaker 1>willing to feel that labor pain. They seem to be

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<v Speaker 1>right okay, So apart from the labor market, what could

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<v Speaker 1>derail this? What could derail this in terms, let's say

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<v Speaker 1>linus otherwise you're out of here. I don't know who

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<v Speaker 1>Line is is? Are you kidding? Is he the smelly one?

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<v Speaker 1>He's the sweet one with the blanket and doesn't he

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<v Speaker 1>Isn't he kind of stinky? He's Lucy's little brother, right?

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<v Speaker 1>I don't know anything about sense. Oh my god, there's

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<v Speaker 1>I thought there was like a stench cloud that or

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<v Speaker 1>maybe he's dirty. I don't know, all right, For the FED,

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<v Speaker 1>for the market, for Lucy and Charlie Brown, for the markets.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess which would derail this is inflation that's stickier

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<v Speaker 1>than expected, or re accelerates, because right now, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>it feels like it's come down a lot quicker than

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<v Speaker 1>maybe consensus has said it would. But you know, if

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<v Speaker 1>you do have waged inflation that remains somewhat elevated, if

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<v Speaker 1>you have other pockets of the economy re accelrat if

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<v Speaker 1>you have commodity prices good. I mean, there's a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of potential risks here. For again, this incredible rally that

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<v Speaker 1>we've built so far into this year, that really started

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<v Speaker 1>in mid October. Yeah, like you think about if right

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<v Speaker 1>way to stay higher and companies have to kind of

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<v Speaker 1>eat those costs right to pay for workers. That's going

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<v Speaker 1>to impact margins, which is something we talked about a

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<v Speaker 1>lot here. We love you, Katie Gray felt, thank you

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<v Speaker 1>so much. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast

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<v Speaker 1>so dying to do this story. It was a most

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<v Speaker 1>ready when to hit the Bloomberg this week. By the way,

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<v Speaker 1>it is still is for the week overall. It's in

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<v Speaker 1>the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week, which, as you know,

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<v Speaker 1>out on newsstands, on line of Bloomberg dot com, and

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<v Speaker 1>on the Bloomberg. We just want to get right to

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<v Speaker 1>it because the story is how to be eighteen years

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<v Speaker 1>old again for only two million dollars a year. Here

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<v Speaker 1>to reduce us to Brian Johnson and his mission, We've

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<v Speaker 1>got Ashley Vancey's Bloomberg Business Week features writer, also the

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<v Speaker 1>author of Elon Musk Tesla SpaceX and the Quest for

0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:12.800
<v Speaker 1>a Fantastic Future. So actually answer that question for us,

0:11:13.120 --> 0:11:14.839
<v Speaker 1>who is Brian Johnson. I think a lot of people

0:11:15.080 --> 0:11:17.480
<v Speaker 1>use a product that he was instrumental in bringing in

0:11:17.559 --> 0:11:21.360
<v Speaker 1>market quite frequently. Who is this guy? Yeah, you know,

0:11:21.480 --> 0:11:26.040
<v Speaker 1>he's a he's a software entrepreneur. UM loosely, that's how

0:11:26.040 --> 0:11:30.200
<v Speaker 1>he started. Um. There's a company called Braintree, which which

0:11:30.280 --> 0:11:32.640
<v Speaker 1>is not like a household name, but people use it

0:11:32.679 --> 0:11:36.600
<v Speaker 1>all the time. And and it's also acquired Venmo, which

0:11:36.600 --> 0:11:39.520
<v Speaker 1>people probably do know. So it was helps you, you know,

0:11:39.600 --> 0:11:43.280
<v Speaker 1>process mobile payments on on the internet and and process

0:11:43.360 --> 0:11:47.200
<v Speaker 1>credit cards. And Brian ran that company in his in

0:11:47.280 --> 0:11:50.319
<v Speaker 1>his thirties and sold it to pay Pal a few

0:11:50.400 --> 0:11:54.559
<v Speaker 1>years ago for eight hundred million dollars. And that's kind

0:11:54.559 --> 0:11:56.439
<v Speaker 1>of how he made his fortune, all right, And now

0:11:56.440 --> 0:11:58.920
<v Speaker 1>he wants to be young again or so. Jill Weber,

0:11:59.120 --> 0:12:02.120
<v Speaker 1>the editor of Blieberg this week also in studio with us. Okay,

0:12:02.160 --> 0:12:04.600
<v Speaker 1>so I can be eighteen again. If I have a

0:12:04.640 --> 0:12:07.240
<v Speaker 1>team of thirty doctors and a two million dollar a

0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:09.000
<v Speaker 1>year of budget, what do what do I get for

0:12:09.040 --> 0:12:15.160
<v Speaker 1>that treatment? Actually a lot of work, you know, So

0:12:15.320 --> 0:12:19.480
<v Speaker 1>it does sound exhausting. Actually it looks and it looks exhausting,

0:12:19.760 --> 0:12:22.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, I mean Silicon Valley, and I guess other

0:12:22.120 --> 0:12:26.400
<v Speaker 1>people have been kind of obsessed with longevity and and

0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:29.320
<v Speaker 1>reversing aging for a long time. We we've all heard

0:12:29.320 --> 0:12:32.360
<v Speaker 1>these stories. Brian's kind of taken it to the next level.

0:12:32.440 --> 0:12:36.080
<v Speaker 1>So he's got all these doctors, you know, he's his

0:12:36.080 --> 0:12:39.440
<v Speaker 1>his theories. He's trying to add some metrics and measurements

0:12:39.440 --> 0:12:41.720
<v Speaker 1>and proof to this whole field. And so what all

0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:46.880
<v Speaker 1>these people do is literally test every every part of

0:12:46.920 --> 0:12:50.760
<v Speaker 1>his body with as many research grade instruments as they can.

0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:54.840
<v Speaker 1>So we're talking m ris, ultrasounds, blood tests, stool samples, everything.

0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:57.679
<v Speaker 1>And then you know, he does a series of therapies

0:12:57.960 --> 0:13:01.920
<v Speaker 1>um stuff that begins just like eating well and exercising

0:13:01.960 --> 0:13:04.960
<v Speaker 1>and goes up to two laser treatments on his skin

0:13:05.080 --> 0:13:08.600
<v Speaker 1>and things like that to to try and correct issues

0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:11.680
<v Speaker 1>and give him the body of a much younger person.

0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.640
<v Speaker 1>There's eating well, you know, as we know it. But

0:13:14.679 --> 0:13:17.720
<v Speaker 1>then there's also what Brian Johnson does, which is like

0:13:17.880 --> 0:13:22.319
<v Speaker 1>you know, you tried it, you tried it. Actually, what

0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:26.160
<v Speaker 1>is this concoction that he puts in a blender Yeah,

0:13:26.240 --> 0:13:29.480
<v Speaker 1>so every day, Brian, it's exactly one thousand, nine hundred

0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:32.200
<v Speaker 1>seventies seven calories, and like he likes to say that

0:13:32.280 --> 0:13:34.760
<v Speaker 1>each calorie has to has to fight for its life

0:13:34.840 --> 0:13:37.360
<v Speaker 1>in his diet. And I went to his house, his

0:13:37.360 --> 0:13:41.440
<v Speaker 1>his kind of mansion in Venice, California, and yeah, so

0:13:41.480 --> 0:13:43.760
<v Speaker 1>I got to see what he has for his daily diet.

0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:46.000
<v Speaker 1>You know, some of it is okay, there's this thing

0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:49.800
<v Speaker 1>that he calls nutty pudding, and it's it's basically berries

0:13:49.920 --> 0:13:52.840
<v Speaker 1>and some yogurt type stuff and and that's good. But

0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:54.760
<v Speaker 1>then you know, the heart of what he eats is

0:13:54.800 --> 0:13:58.240
<v Speaker 1>this this kind of vegetable sludge which starts out at

0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:01.280
<v Speaker 1>call a flower and accole and lentils and things that

0:14:01.320 --> 0:14:06.400
<v Speaker 1>I actually like. But when you mush, yeah, it tastes

0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:08.840
<v Speaker 1>it taste, I mean, it had almost had just like

0:14:08.920 --> 0:14:13.600
<v Speaker 1>no taste. It tasted like dirt. And Brian swears it's delicious,

0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:16.000
<v Speaker 1>but I had trouble getting it all down. Okay, can

0:14:16.040 --> 0:14:20.160
<v Speaker 1>you talk to us about meeting him at the front door. Yeah, well,

0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:23.040
<v Speaker 1>so you know, I've been following Brian for years and

0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:25.520
<v Speaker 1>so I know exactly what he looks like and and

0:14:25.520 --> 0:14:27.640
<v Speaker 1>and all that and you know, I we were setting

0:14:27.680 --> 0:14:29.400
<v Speaker 1>up for this dinner and he sent me a text

0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:31.480
<v Speaker 1>message while I was waiting in my car for him

0:14:31.520 --> 0:14:33.440
<v Speaker 1>to arrive, and he said, I might look a little

0:14:33.480 --> 0:14:37.560
<v Speaker 1>different this time. I just had um some fat injected

0:14:37.600 --> 0:14:40.720
<v Speaker 1>into my face and I had an allergic reaction. And

0:14:41.040 --> 0:14:43.360
<v Speaker 1>then when he finally did appear, I mean, his face

0:14:43.480 --> 0:14:47.640
<v Speaker 1>was swollen about, you know, three times it's normal size,

0:14:47.680 --> 0:14:51.440
<v Speaker 1>but he still had He's got this glowing, very beautiful,

0:14:51.640 --> 0:14:54.440
<v Speaker 1>pale skin. And so you know, in the story, I

0:14:54.480 --> 0:14:57.200
<v Speaker 1>say he looked like a giant porcelain doll, and he

0:14:57.280 --> 0:15:00.520
<v Speaker 1>really did. And were you tempted to to join in

0:15:00.520 --> 0:15:03.560
<v Speaker 1>that experiment? Not on that one? That one looked a

0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:07.960
<v Speaker 1>little outside of my my comfort zone, you know. But Brian,

0:15:08.200 --> 0:15:11.240
<v Speaker 1>to his credit, man, I mean, he really he takes

0:15:11.280 --> 0:15:13.640
<v Speaker 1>all this stuff. It's stride. He just kind of laughed

0:15:13.640 --> 0:15:16.200
<v Speaker 1>about it. His son came in and he just kind

0:15:16.200 --> 0:15:18.760
<v Speaker 1>of had a giggle, like he's seen all this stuff before.

0:15:19.080 --> 0:15:21.720
<v Speaker 1>And so Brian just does it and moves on. Okay,

0:15:21.760 --> 0:15:24.720
<v Speaker 1>So are there takeaways for us mere mortals who who

0:15:24.800 --> 0:15:28.560
<v Speaker 1>don't actually want to rewind the clock this obsessively that?

0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:31.280
<v Speaker 1>But maybe you know, steal a couple of couple of

0:15:31.280 --> 0:15:33.600
<v Speaker 1>things from his wisdom, like what what have you adopted

0:15:33.640 --> 0:15:36.680
<v Speaker 1>from Brian Brian's routine that that I might want to

0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:39.880
<v Speaker 1>consider not as much as I should, you would think,

0:15:40.400 --> 0:15:44.960
<v Speaker 1>be like ave I wish? I wish I could say

0:15:45.000 --> 0:15:46.880
<v Speaker 1>it was. I mean, if anyone's curious. So there's a

0:15:46.920 --> 0:15:49.120
<v Speaker 1>couple of things I took away. If anyone's curious, they

0:15:49.120 --> 0:15:52.840
<v Speaker 1>could go to if they search project blueprint, that's what

0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:55.360
<v Speaker 1>this is called. And Brian John said he's got everything

0:15:55.520 --> 0:15:57.680
<v Speaker 1>listening on this website, that he eats, that he puts

0:15:57.680 --> 0:15:59.680
<v Speaker 1>on his face, all of that, And so you could

0:15:59.720 --> 0:16:02.640
<v Speaker 1>kind of pick and choose where you want to get

0:16:02.680 --> 0:16:06.080
<v Speaker 1>into this thing. I would say the big picture might

0:16:06.120 --> 0:16:08.360
<v Speaker 1>take away is that you know, there really are people

0:16:08.400 --> 0:16:11.160
<v Speaker 1>who are trying to move this field to to a

0:16:11.200 --> 0:16:13.120
<v Speaker 1>better place. I mean, the whole point of this is

0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:15.440
<v Speaker 1>like we hear about fad diets, you hear about the

0:16:15.480 --> 0:16:18.920
<v Speaker 1>TB twelve method, and like no one knows if any

0:16:18.960 --> 0:16:21.520
<v Speaker 1>of this stuff works. And so you know, he's publishing

0:16:21.680 --> 0:16:25.680
<v Speaker 1>everything out the open, all his his data and and um,

0:16:25.760 --> 0:16:27.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, and he's one of many people who are

0:16:27.640 --> 0:16:30.720
<v Speaker 1>trying to advance this field and be open about what's

0:16:30.720 --> 0:16:32.840
<v Speaker 1>going on. Not sure I'm ready to try the nutty pudding.

0:16:32.880 --> 0:16:37.320
<v Speaker 1>Having said that, though, seriously, folks um in terms of

0:16:37.320 --> 0:16:39.200
<v Speaker 1>what's going on inside his body, though, some of his

0:16:39.280 --> 0:16:42.320
<v Speaker 1>doctors are excited, right, yeah, I mean, you know, some

0:16:42.400 --> 0:16:45.640
<v Speaker 1>of this sounds kind of little nuts at first, blush,

0:16:45.680 --> 0:16:47.440
<v Speaker 1>but then you look at his at his metrics is

0:16:47.520 --> 0:16:49.120
<v Speaker 1>pretty good, you know. I mean, first of all, the

0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:51.040
<v Speaker 1>guy is like I mean, if you look at him,

0:16:51.080 --> 0:16:55.680
<v Speaker 1>he has ripped like professional athlete and beyond ripped, and uh,

0:16:55.800 --> 0:16:58.480
<v Speaker 1>you know, like his resting heart rate is like forty three.

0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:01.160
<v Speaker 1>He's got the lung capacity of an eighteen year old,

0:17:01.200 --> 0:17:04.960
<v Speaker 1>He's got the gum inflammation of a seventeen year old,

0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:10.879
<v Speaker 1>and so um, you know, out on me. Well see

0:17:10.960 --> 0:17:14.800
<v Speaker 1>that's the point here. But yeah, no, I mean there's

0:17:14.840 --> 0:17:17.760
<v Speaker 1>there's parts of him that are just clearly incredibly healthy,

0:17:17.800 --> 0:17:21.160
<v Speaker 1>and according to this data, you know, he really has

0:17:21.240 --> 0:17:25.520
<v Speaker 1>sort of reversed the age and the overall health of

0:17:25.800 --> 0:17:28.159
<v Speaker 1>a lot of his innards. I think a lot of

0:17:28.160 --> 0:17:29.800
<v Speaker 1>people might want to live longer so they can spend

0:17:29.800 --> 0:17:31.520
<v Speaker 1>more time doing things that they love, so they contend

0:17:31.600 --> 0:17:33.280
<v Speaker 1>more time with their families, so they can, you know,

0:17:33.359 --> 0:17:35.640
<v Speaker 1>have a longer life. But there's this conundrum and reading

0:17:35.640 --> 0:17:37.440
<v Speaker 1>your story actually just in the last thirty seconds that

0:17:37.480 --> 0:17:39.639
<v Speaker 1>we have is this is so exhausting, and this is

0:17:39.680 --> 0:17:41.680
<v Speaker 1>so all encompassing that it seems like to me he

0:17:41.720 --> 0:17:45.200
<v Speaker 1>doesn't have time to to do those other things. Well, yeah,

0:17:45.200 --> 0:17:46.840
<v Speaker 1>this is the one trick. I mean, like I said,

0:17:46.840 --> 0:17:48.959
<v Speaker 1>I've known him for a while and we always debate this.

0:17:49.040 --> 0:17:51.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm like, look, man, one of my favorite things on

0:17:51.359 --> 0:17:53.600
<v Speaker 1>earth is to go have a really nice late dinner

0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:56.119
<v Speaker 1>with a bunch of friends, a bit of wine, you know,

0:17:56.200 --> 0:17:58.560
<v Speaker 1>And and he's just not that's not even an option

0:17:58.760 --> 0:18:01.320
<v Speaker 1>for him. And um, you know, what he's doing is

0:18:01.320 --> 0:18:04.520
<v Speaker 1>a full commitment. I think he would argue that he's

0:18:04.560 --> 0:18:07.480
<v Speaker 1>at the forefront of this. He's a pioneer. The stuff

0:18:07.560 --> 0:18:10.000
<v Speaker 1>is gonna get cheaper and easy to use over time.

0:18:10.200 --> 0:18:14.080
<v Speaker 1>Is he happy though, He's beyond happy. I mean, this

0:18:14.119 --> 0:18:17.560
<v Speaker 1>is sort of like a religious calling for him, you know. Well,

0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:19.960
<v Speaker 1>next up gene therapies, as you write about some more

0:18:20.000 --> 0:18:25.000
<v Speaker 1>experimental procedures. So we look forward to seeing what's next,

0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:28.679
<v Speaker 1>uh for Brian Johnson. And I'm sure I'll be written

0:18:28.720 --> 0:18:31.600
<v Speaker 1>by Ashley Vance Ashley a Bloomberg Business Week along week

0:18:31.640 --> 0:18:34.720
<v Speaker 1>till Webber. Check out the new issue of the magazine.

0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:39.520
<v Speaker 1>You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week Podcast. Catch us

0:18:39.520 --> 0:18:42.199
<v Speaker 1>live week days from two to five pm Eastern on

0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:45.760
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Radio, The Bloomberg Business a band You too. You

0:18:45.880 --> 0:18:48.840
<v Speaker 1>can also listen live to our flagship New York station,

0:18:49.240 --> 0:18:54.040
<v Speaker 1>Just Say Alexa play Bloomberg elve and Dirty. We are

0:18:54.080 --> 0:18:56.600
<v Speaker 1>so excited about our next guest. In fact, sorry Charlie

0:18:56.600 --> 0:18:58.080
<v Speaker 1>if I missed the cute because we were talking with

0:18:58.160 --> 0:19:01.479
<v Speaker 1>him over the next week or so. Just big broad picture.

0:19:01.520 --> 0:19:03.080
<v Speaker 1>We're gonna be hearing from some of the big media

0:19:03.119 --> 0:19:05.840
<v Speaker 1>companies when it comes to earnings. Of course, Netflix already

0:19:05.880 --> 0:19:09.480
<v Speaker 1>reported a blockbuster report thanks to a massive subscriber beat.

0:19:09.760 --> 0:19:12.240
<v Speaker 1>When it comes to the media names, it's about grabbing eyeballs,

0:19:12.280 --> 0:19:15.359
<v Speaker 1>boosting and holding out a subscribers by giving them great

0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:19.000
<v Speaker 1>contact content. And our next guest, Tim really gets his

0:19:19.040 --> 0:19:20.760
<v Speaker 1>space in a big way. Yeah, he's been in it

0:19:20.800 --> 0:19:23.120
<v Speaker 1>as it's evolved in a really big way, from traditional

0:19:23.160 --> 0:19:26.640
<v Speaker 1>broadcast and linear to TV to the explosion and streaming

0:19:26.680 --> 0:19:31.159
<v Speaker 1>and mobile DVDs everything. Josh Stapan is the former president

0:19:31.240 --> 0:19:33.840
<v Speaker 1>CEO of AMC Networks. You know him from such hits

0:19:33.840 --> 0:19:36.440
<v Speaker 1>as Mad Men, Breaking Bad, The Walking Dead. It was

0:19:36.480 --> 0:19:38.960
<v Speaker 1>spun off from table Vision Carol back in two thousand eleven,

0:19:38.960 --> 0:19:40.600
<v Speaker 1>and he's got a new book out. I love it

0:19:40.640 --> 0:19:43.120
<v Speaker 1>the title third Act. I think about my third act

0:19:43.119 --> 0:19:46.479
<v Speaker 1>because I'm still in my first act. Reinventing your next chapter.

0:19:47.200 --> 0:19:50.960
<v Speaker 1>Josh Saypan is in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Thank you,

0:19:50.960 --> 0:19:52.600
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for coming in. Well, thank you

0:19:52.640 --> 0:19:55.040
<v Speaker 1>for having me pleasure. We have so much to talk about.

0:19:55.080 --> 0:19:56.840
<v Speaker 1>Do you still like the media world when you look

0:19:56.840 --> 0:19:58.560
<v Speaker 1>back at it, do you think it's just kind of

0:19:58.800 --> 0:20:01.560
<v Speaker 1>unbelievable and what it's, what it was, what it's become continues,

0:20:02.160 --> 0:20:05.639
<v Speaker 1>it's wonderful. And uh, I can't get enough television. My

0:20:05.640 --> 0:20:08.720
<v Speaker 1>wife and I sit down every night and no joke, actually, uh,

0:20:08.880 --> 0:20:12.560
<v Speaker 1>particularly new shows. There's this abundance of shows, and I

0:20:12.600 --> 0:20:16.359
<v Speaker 1>think television, many would agree what goes on the screen

0:20:16.440 --> 0:20:19.719
<v Speaker 1>at home has come to dominate so much of the conversation,

0:20:19.720 --> 0:20:21.680
<v Speaker 1>and so we sit down frequently and say what do

0:20:21.680 --> 0:20:25.080
<v Speaker 1>you want to watch? What are you watching? God? Well,

0:20:25.119 --> 0:20:28.000
<v Speaker 1>it's a you know, honestly, it's Academy Awards season after

0:20:28.160 --> 0:20:32.040
<v Speaker 1>saying that, So I'm trying to be current as a voter. Yeah,

0:20:32.080 --> 0:20:37.240
<v Speaker 1>on everything that might be so so I've been racking

0:20:37.240 --> 0:20:39.320
<v Speaker 1>them up all they're also sort of findable, but I

0:20:39.359 --> 0:20:42.199
<v Speaker 1>do have access to them. So, uh, you know, everything

0:20:42.200 --> 0:20:48.240
<v Speaker 1>from Pinocchio, Tatar to Babylon to uh everything everywhere at

0:20:48.280 --> 0:20:51.240
<v Speaker 1>once to the list goes on a spectacular list and

0:20:51.280 --> 0:20:56.000
<v Speaker 1>then documentaries and then foreign films, and so there's not

0:20:56.119 --> 0:20:58.880
<v Speaker 1>enough time. What about what about like quote unquote TV

0:20:59.040 --> 0:21:01.640
<v Speaker 1>these days? Because TV these days is that it's such

0:21:01.680 --> 0:21:05.359
<v Speaker 1>a loose it's like, well, no, I don't even mean linear.

0:21:05.480 --> 0:21:09.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean I mean like you know, HBO weekly or

0:21:10.040 --> 0:21:13.439
<v Speaker 1>a Netflix series drops all at once on Netflix, like

0:21:13.680 --> 0:21:16.520
<v Speaker 1>what are you binging? What are you streaming? That's sure, Well,

0:21:16.520 --> 0:21:20.560
<v Speaker 1>I have particular affection for AMC because of time and

0:21:20.680 --> 0:21:24.560
<v Speaker 1>time there and uh so the AMC bought the and

0:21:24.760 --> 0:21:28.679
<v Speaker 1>Rice Library, and so Mayfair Witches and is new and

0:21:28.920 --> 0:21:33.200
<v Speaker 1>Interview with the Vampire is wonderful, and uh as well

0:21:33.240 --> 0:21:36.159
<v Speaker 1>as finishing up the end of Better Call Soul and

0:21:37.119 --> 0:21:40.600
<v Speaker 1>Dark Winds, and the list goes really on no Better

0:21:40.640 --> 0:21:43.919
<v Speaker 1>Call Soul spoilers place. So it's wonderful, But but we do,

0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:49.040
<v Speaker 1>of course watch HBO, Netflix, Apple, etcetera, etcetera. Jus, how

0:21:49.080 --> 0:21:51.640
<v Speaker 1>do you feel about like it's funny? I watched Bad Sisters,

0:21:51.640 --> 0:21:53.240
<v Speaker 1>which I adored. I don't know if you saw it,

0:21:53.280 --> 0:21:55.439
<v Speaker 1>but I watched it week to week because it was

0:21:55.480 --> 0:21:57.840
<v Speaker 1>one and it was kind of fun to look forward

0:21:58.400 --> 0:22:00.280
<v Speaker 1>to when it came out. And I hadn't done that.

0:22:00.359 --> 0:22:02.639
<v Speaker 1>I mean, so often I just something gets dumped and

0:22:02.680 --> 0:22:05.879
<v Speaker 1>I just sit there for hours. Do you like that model?

0:22:05.960 --> 0:22:07.439
<v Speaker 1>Do you think it's a smart model. Do you think

0:22:07.480 --> 0:22:10.240
<v Speaker 1>it's better that we're kind of waiting for something every week? Well?

0:22:10.240 --> 0:22:13.399
<v Speaker 1>I would I would defer to today's experts who are

0:22:13.440 --> 0:22:15.400
<v Speaker 1>deep in the belly of the beast and can understand

0:22:15.400 --> 0:22:18.000
<v Speaker 1>the implications of all that. I will just say as

0:22:18.040 --> 0:22:21.640
<v Speaker 1>a consumer, I don't mean this to be in any

0:22:21.680 --> 0:22:24.320
<v Speaker 1>sense cute. I like it both ways, you know. Yeah,

0:22:24.320 --> 0:22:27.640
<v Speaker 1>I'd like to binge shows and then I can talk

0:22:27.680 --> 0:22:29.520
<v Speaker 1>about something that was on Hulu, which is my wife

0:22:29.520 --> 0:22:33.399
<v Speaker 1>and I liked a show called Patient with Steve Carrell.

0:22:34.240 --> 0:22:37.200
<v Speaker 1>Wonderful show effets on Hulu and we spent and it

0:22:37.280 --> 0:22:40.679
<v Speaker 1>was anxiously awaited watching new episodes each week. So I

0:22:40.720 --> 0:22:44.280
<v Speaker 1>think it's wonderful both ways, depending upon the content. The

0:22:44.320 --> 0:22:47.720
<v Speaker 1>business imperatives behind it are what they are, and people

0:22:47.760 --> 0:22:50.240
<v Speaker 1>who are closer to it today can tell you more

0:22:50.280 --> 0:22:52.600
<v Speaker 1>than I can. I do think about like the explosion

0:22:52.760 --> 0:22:55.120
<v Speaker 1>and just the demand for content and what that has

0:22:55.160 --> 0:22:58.479
<v Speaker 1>done for directors, producers, actors, right, I mean actors who

0:22:58.480 --> 0:23:01.280
<v Speaker 1>would you think only on the big screen? Right, like

0:23:01.560 --> 0:23:04.280
<v Speaker 1>to to have a series on one of the streaming services.

0:23:04.320 --> 0:23:06.120
<v Speaker 1>It's a really cool thing and I think we all benefit.

0:23:06.160 --> 0:23:08.119
<v Speaker 1>But how do you think about the evolution if you

0:23:08.160 --> 0:23:10.439
<v Speaker 1>go back to your early days right when you I

0:23:10.480 --> 0:23:12.800
<v Speaker 1>forget the name of the firm, but it became harder cable,

0:23:12.840 --> 0:23:16.840
<v Speaker 1>like it's hard to think about what it was. Well,

0:23:16.880 --> 0:23:20.480
<v Speaker 1>I grew up really in a desert of television, um

0:23:20.840 --> 0:23:26.000
<v Speaker 1>paucity of anything that was worthwhile. Um uh, there were

0:23:26.119 --> 0:23:29.760
<v Speaker 1>rare in your book would maybe beg to different to

0:23:29.880 --> 0:23:32.960
<v Speaker 1>talk about, because actually he was a really notable exception.

0:23:33.040 --> 0:23:36.040
<v Speaker 1>Another person in the book named Bill Persky, who did

0:23:36.080 --> 0:23:38.880
<v Speaker 1>who really featured strong women in his comedies and as

0:23:38.960 --> 0:23:41.440
<v Speaker 1>it happens, to be a dear personal friends. So I'm

0:23:41.960 --> 0:23:44.760
<v Speaker 1>very attached to both him and his extraordinary work, which

0:23:44.800 --> 0:23:47.639
<v Speaker 1>began with Dick van Dyke and Katon lle So. But

0:23:47.720 --> 0:23:50.520
<v Speaker 1>it was a different world and it really was, if

0:23:50.560 --> 0:23:54.360
<v Speaker 1>not desert, it was desert with few oasis. And today

0:23:54.480 --> 0:23:57.000
<v Speaker 1>it is land of abundance, and I think it's a

0:23:57.040 --> 0:24:00.400
<v Speaker 1>wonderful land of abundance for creative expression. Do you think

0:24:00.440 --> 0:24:01.800
<v Speaker 1>forgive me, tim, but I just went to it. Do

0:24:01.840 --> 0:24:04.840
<v Speaker 1>you think we're getting better in terms of diversity and

0:24:04.840 --> 0:24:08.919
<v Speaker 1>and really serving different audiences? You know, I'd like to

0:24:09.000 --> 0:24:15.760
<v Speaker 1>think yes. I really would like to think yes rather emphatically. Um.

0:24:16.160 --> 0:24:19.760
<v Speaker 1>And you know, shows are coming to mind that are

0:24:19.920 --> 0:24:23.960
<v Speaker 1>really portraying people who look like the world they don't

0:24:24.000 --> 0:24:26.959
<v Speaker 1>look like a different world. And I think that's a virtuous,

0:24:27.520 --> 0:24:31.159
<v Speaker 1>wonderful and really truly truly important thing. Because media is

0:24:31.240 --> 0:24:35.880
<v Speaker 1>so it actually gets inside people's skin. And so if

0:24:35.920 --> 0:24:40.399
<v Speaker 1>they see an embrace of diverse people, I think it

0:24:40.480 --> 0:24:45.320
<v Speaker 1>really helps and influences behavior rather profoundly. I'll tell you

0:24:45.280 --> 0:24:48.960
<v Speaker 1>an anecdote. Another person who's in the book is ex

0:24:49.200 --> 0:24:52.760
<v Speaker 1>Senator Governor Bob Kerrey, who went on to be university

0:24:52.800 --> 0:24:57.000
<v Speaker 1>president and UM and then banker and is also i

0:24:57.000 --> 0:24:59.520
<v Speaker 1>should say, a poet along the way, and was earlier

0:24:59.520 --> 0:25:03.720
<v Speaker 1>a pharmacy in military person and I think there's a

0:25:03.760 --> 0:25:05.720
<v Speaker 1>fourth and a fifth act in there, but that's okay,

0:25:05.880 --> 0:25:09.359
<v Speaker 1>exactly right. But he made a comment we were fortunate

0:25:09.440 --> 0:25:13.240
<v Speaker 1>enough years ago to have been involved with the show

0:25:13.440 --> 0:25:16.080
<v Speaker 1>in its early years called Queer Eye for This Great Guy.

0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:20.399
<v Speaker 1>And Bob commented that that show when he was in

0:25:20.480 --> 0:25:26.920
<v Speaker 1>Nebraska had perhaps more to do with defanging homophobia than

0:25:27.160 --> 0:25:32.560
<v Speaker 1>some legislation, because it made humans seem familiar who were different.

0:25:32.720 --> 0:25:36.119
<v Speaker 1>And I think one sees that, you know in in

0:25:37.080 --> 0:25:38.919
<v Speaker 1>you know, in theater, you see it in books, you

0:25:38.960 --> 0:25:41.440
<v Speaker 1>see it particularly in TV, which is in your home

0:25:41.480 --> 0:25:45.560
<v Speaker 1>every day. You said theater, you run a theater, as

0:25:45.680 --> 0:25:47.879
<v Speaker 1>you own a theater as well. Game for it? Um,

0:25:48.160 --> 0:25:51.040
<v Speaker 1>you really love media and content, don't you want to

0:25:51.040 --> 0:25:53.560
<v Speaker 1>talk about what's not to like? Well? I think there

0:25:53.640 --> 0:25:55.360
<v Speaker 1>is some stuff that has a lot of people concerned

0:25:55.359 --> 0:25:57.840
<v Speaker 1>and the idea of short form stuff and watching on

0:25:57.880 --> 0:26:02.240
<v Speaker 1>your phone. A study back in October by OMDA said

0:26:02.280 --> 0:26:06.280
<v Speaker 1>that TikTok overtook Netflix to become the second most popular

0:26:06.440 --> 0:26:09.440
<v Speaker 1>service in the US. YouTube was at the top when

0:26:09.440 --> 0:26:12.760
<v Speaker 1>it came for people under thirty five watching. Does that

0:26:12.800 --> 0:26:16.800
<v Speaker 1>concern you at all? You know, I'm not sure I

0:26:16.840 --> 0:26:20.160
<v Speaker 1>am an authority on what the impact of short form

0:26:20.200 --> 0:26:23.159
<v Speaker 1>and TikTok, but from the perspective of art, from the

0:26:23.240 --> 0:26:26.760
<v Speaker 1>perspective of you know, what we are consuming, you know,

0:26:27.119 --> 0:26:31.520
<v Speaker 1>I guess truly if you don't mind, again, don't let

0:26:31.560 --> 0:26:35.320
<v Speaker 1>me feign authority. I think, let's be honest, you know

0:26:35.359 --> 0:26:37.679
<v Speaker 1>a thing or two about media. You've been in this space,

0:26:37.760 --> 0:26:40.679
<v Speaker 1>the social implications of it, the social implications a long

0:26:40.800 --> 0:26:45.520
<v Speaker 1>term social implications of media, social not and even on

0:26:45.640 --> 0:26:48.840
<v Speaker 1>art are hard to predict. For a couple of comments,

0:26:48.960 --> 0:26:54.520
<v Speaker 1>if I may, One is that, um, I think it's

0:26:56.640 --> 0:27:02.000
<v Speaker 1>rich and wonderful that younger people can create. I mean that.

0:27:02.080 --> 0:27:05.080
<v Speaker 1>I don't mean that just to be great great media.

0:27:05.760 --> 0:27:09.359
<v Speaker 1>I think people, young people, kids are at home and

0:27:09.400 --> 0:27:13.520
<v Speaker 1>they may be fashioning sort of expertise and careers in

0:27:13.640 --> 0:27:18.000
<v Speaker 1>media by it was making YouTube videos and making TikTok videos.

0:27:18.000 --> 0:27:21.080
<v Speaker 1>And I think it is an on ramp to being

0:27:21.200 --> 0:27:25.800
<v Speaker 1>creative people because they're learning tools. No kidding, you've seen it,

0:27:25.840 --> 0:27:27.280
<v Speaker 1>you see it in your family. I think it's a

0:27:27.320 --> 0:27:30.720
<v Speaker 1>sort of wonderful thing. And you know, I think then

0:27:30.760 --> 0:27:34.560
<v Speaker 1>there's a whole subject about um implications of and social

0:27:34.600 --> 0:27:37.840
<v Speaker 1>implications of and I think one might need a sociologist

0:27:37.880 --> 0:27:40.679
<v Speaker 1>or anthropologist to talk about and figure out all that

0:27:41.200 --> 0:27:43.080
<v Speaker 1>you've talked about. Some of the people in the book,

0:27:43.119 --> 0:27:44.960
<v Speaker 1>tell us first of all, why you wanted to write

0:27:44.960 --> 0:27:48.920
<v Speaker 1>this together. Sure, thank you for asking. So, about three

0:27:48.960 --> 0:27:52.240
<v Speaker 1>or four years ago, as I contemplated the end of

0:27:52.280 --> 0:27:57.760
<v Speaker 1>a conventional career, was that hard? Well? Yeah, because I

0:27:57.800 --> 0:28:00.680
<v Speaker 1>loved it so much. Great company, great play, great people,

0:28:00.760 --> 0:28:04.360
<v Speaker 1>great shows, and very attached to it. And but there's

0:28:04.400 --> 0:28:09.440
<v Speaker 1>an inevitable time to do something different, and um uh,

0:28:09.480 --> 0:28:12.760
<v Speaker 1>So I just began to observe people, some of them

0:28:12.800 --> 0:28:15.320
<v Speaker 1>like me, some different and what they did if they

0:28:15.320 --> 0:28:18.800
<v Speaker 1>had the benefits of continued health and and a degree

0:28:18.840 --> 0:28:21.840
<v Speaker 1>of means that gave them some flexibility. And I became

0:28:21.840 --> 0:28:26.000
<v Speaker 1>a little interested in what do you do after you

0:28:26.080 --> 0:28:29.080
<v Speaker 1>do what you do if you have that opportunity. And

0:28:29.119 --> 0:28:31.760
<v Speaker 1>so I began to observe sort of the good, the bad,

0:28:31.840 --> 0:28:35.159
<v Speaker 1>the indifferent, and the spectacular. And so I thought it

0:28:35.200 --> 0:28:38.000
<v Speaker 1>was a good subject maybe and I'll see if I

0:28:38.000 --> 0:28:39.720
<v Speaker 1>can write a book about it. And so I presented

0:28:39.760 --> 0:28:43.239
<v Speaker 1>it to a publisher and they said, okay, so how

0:28:43.240 --> 0:28:44.560
<v Speaker 1>do you think about it? In the context of your

0:28:44.560 --> 0:28:46.960
<v Speaker 1>own career though, of your own third act? Well, is

0:28:46.960 --> 0:28:49.760
<v Speaker 1>this book your third act? This book a second act?

0:28:49.840 --> 0:28:52.960
<v Speaker 1>That would be a little meta. Uh So, you know,

0:28:53.160 --> 0:28:54.840
<v Speaker 1>what are you doing? Well? I wrote the book, that's it,

0:28:55.320 --> 0:28:58.160
<v Speaker 1>um So, I think it's a part of it. But

0:28:58.240 --> 0:29:00.880
<v Speaker 1>I have some things that I'm starting to do that

0:29:01.080 --> 0:29:05.160
<v Speaker 1>have been pretty appealing to me. Um. I've been working

0:29:05.240 --> 0:29:09.160
<v Speaker 1>I mentioned to you Columbia University, and I've been volunteering

0:29:09.200 --> 0:29:11.360
<v Speaker 1>actually at the Fortune Society with people who have been

0:29:11.880 --> 0:29:14.320
<v Speaker 1>recently released from prison. What's your friend of mine is

0:29:14.360 --> 0:29:18.040
<v Speaker 1>involved with and working on making some independent films, which

0:29:18.080 --> 0:29:19.560
<v Speaker 1>is near and due to my heart. I was at

0:29:19.600 --> 0:29:23.520
<v Speaker 1>Sundance last week. Uh and so a bunch of different things.

0:29:23.840 --> 0:29:25.840
<v Speaker 1>I think it's so important because I do think there

0:29:25.840 --> 0:29:30.200
<v Speaker 1>are people who get through some really significant accomplishments, you know,

0:29:30.440 --> 0:29:32.600
<v Speaker 1>and maybe think that's it, and then you realize wit

0:29:32.640 --> 0:29:34.840
<v Speaker 1>you've got, You've got another runaway, You've got more things

0:29:34.880 --> 0:29:37.840
<v Speaker 1>you can do. Some of the names in your book, Josh,

0:29:37.880 --> 0:29:40.240
<v Speaker 1>are definitely household names. We would know who they are.

0:29:40.320 --> 0:29:42.280
<v Speaker 1>Some of them aren't. Go through some of the names,

0:29:42.280 --> 0:29:46.960
<v Speaker 1>and I'm curious how you decided the list. Sure, well,

0:29:47.040 --> 0:29:51.320
<v Speaker 1>you know. Um, I worked with a wonderful editor who

0:29:51.440 --> 0:29:55.640
<v Speaker 1>has great judgment and I think helped craft the balance

0:29:55.680 --> 0:29:59.760
<v Speaker 1>of the book. And she and I thought, uh that

0:30:00.200 --> 0:30:01.800
<v Speaker 1>it would be good to have a mix of people

0:30:01.840 --> 0:30:04.959
<v Speaker 1>who are well known and who one would recognize. Robert Redford,

0:30:05.000 --> 0:30:10.160
<v Speaker 1>I mentioned Sundance, was a painter and actor. His first

0:30:10.320 --> 0:30:13.720
<v Speaker 1>film direction job was he won an Academy Award for

0:30:13.840 --> 0:30:18.120
<v Speaker 1>ordinary people and obviously an environmentalist and really then gave

0:30:18.720 --> 0:30:23.320
<v Speaker 1>freedom to independent film through the Institute. The festival's better known,

0:30:23.400 --> 0:30:27.480
<v Speaker 1>So he's involved. Alan alda remarkable guy who had the

0:30:27.520 --> 0:30:31.680
<v Speaker 1>privilege of meeting people my age know him as Hawkeye Mesh.

0:30:32.080 --> 0:30:34.640
<v Speaker 1>But he went on to do eight years of a

0:30:34.720 --> 0:30:37.600
<v Speaker 1>science show on public television and then set up the

0:30:37.680 --> 0:30:42.240
<v Speaker 1>all the Institute for Communications and trained no fewer than

0:30:42.360 --> 0:30:47.520
<v Speaker 1>five thousand doctors in how to communicate better patients. So

0:30:47.640 --> 0:30:53.160
<v Speaker 1>the pretty darn remarkable u use of time and sort

0:30:53.160 --> 0:30:58.480
<v Speaker 1>of agency. Um, and the glorious Steinham really needs no summary.

0:30:58.840 --> 0:31:01.160
<v Speaker 1>She sort of speaks for her self. I think, just

0:31:02.480 --> 0:31:05.320
<v Speaker 1>sort of the modern feminist. How did the people who

0:31:05.360 --> 0:31:08.040
<v Speaker 1>you profiled, who you write about come to mind for you?

0:31:08.120 --> 0:31:10.960
<v Speaker 1>Did you tap into your own network? Did yeah, I did.

0:31:11.000 --> 0:31:13.520
<v Speaker 1>I did a process. I did a bit, and then

0:31:13.760 --> 0:31:17.160
<v Speaker 1>I had the help of the woman named Ellie Strauss

0:31:17.680 --> 0:31:20.800
<v Speaker 1>who did some research. She's a friend of my daughter actually,

0:31:20.880 --> 0:31:23.440
<v Speaker 1>and she's a teacher, and so I was able to

0:31:23.480 --> 0:31:26.360
<v Speaker 1>impose upon her and say, do you have some downtime,

0:31:26.440 --> 0:31:28.440
<v Speaker 1>because she's a very bright young woman. And so she

0:31:28.520 --> 0:31:33.760
<v Speaker 1>did some research and we found people who were not

0:31:34.160 --> 0:31:36.760
<v Speaker 1>known at all. There are forty five of those, and

0:31:36.960 --> 0:31:39.760
<v Speaker 1>they're they're just great to read about. I'll mention a

0:31:39.760 --> 0:31:43.040
<v Speaker 1>couple of there's I was saying it when we were talking.

0:31:43.200 --> 0:31:46.920
<v Speaker 1>Hope partly work. She's seventy two. She had a career

0:31:46.960 --> 0:31:51.920
<v Speaker 1>at Verizon. She had attended the Brooklyn Children's Museum as

0:31:51.960 --> 0:31:55.120
<v Speaker 1>a kid, and then she founded as the chair of

0:31:55.160 --> 0:31:59.280
<v Speaker 1>the Bronx Children's Museum that opened its concrete doors a

0:31:59.280 --> 0:32:01.200
<v Speaker 1>couple of months ago. It was reported in the New

0:32:01.240 --> 0:32:05.000
<v Speaker 1>York Times. Jamal Joseph grew up in New York. He

0:32:05.160 --> 0:32:09.960
<v Speaker 1>was gotten into some trouble twice. He became a black panther.

0:32:10.080 --> 0:32:14.520
<v Speaker 1>He served some hard federal time and then got degrees

0:32:14.560 --> 0:32:17.720
<v Speaker 1>in advanced degrees while in prison, taught at Columbia and

0:32:17.720 --> 0:32:23.240
<v Speaker 1>then developed this thing called impact theater, which really advances

0:32:23.440 --> 0:32:26.440
<v Speaker 1>kids and teachers in theater, and it's immensely helpful to them.

0:32:26.440 --> 0:32:28.920
<v Speaker 1>There's more fanciful people. A guy named Art Chill who

0:32:28.920 --> 0:32:32.000
<v Speaker 1>became a stand up comedian at in his late seventies.

0:32:32.040 --> 0:32:34.720
<v Speaker 1>How wild is well? I love this also. I think

0:32:34.920 --> 0:32:37.800
<v Speaker 1>a woman who became a flight attendant in our fifties,

0:32:37.800 --> 0:32:41.560
<v Speaker 1>somebody who became a firefighter. Yes, I loved those stories.

0:32:41.640 --> 0:32:45.880
<v Speaker 1>You know, they're just they actually just elevate me, you know,

0:32:45.960 --> 0:32:50.160
<v Speaker 1>to think, um, I'm gonna go be a firefighter. Well,

0:32:50.160 --> 0:32:51.760
<v Speaker 1>it's so funny because we had a guest earlier in

0:32:51.760 --> 0:32:53.640
<v Speaker 1>the week and I'm not being critical, but I was

0:32:53.680 --> 0:32:55.959
<v Speaker 1>talking about that by the time you're forty five year

0:32:55.960 --> 0:32:57.840
<v Speaker 1>middle age and nobody wants to hire you, and and

0:32:57.960 --> 0:33:01.600
<v Speaker 1>and then to see the third act. You know, just

0:33:02.040 --> 0:33:04.360
<v Speaker 1>there are people who are so productive well into their

0:33:04.720 --> 0:33:08.440
<v Speaker 1>eighties nineties, and they're doing There's a guy named Leonard

0:33:08.480 --> 0:33:13.120
<v Speaker 1>Tao who is nineties five, four or five, who is

0:33:14.160 --> 0:33:18.160
<v Speaker 1>doing it's indescribable what he is doing with his time

0:33:18.200 --> 0:33:21.200
<v Speaker 1>and resource. What did the research of the book and

0:33:21.320 --> 0:33:23.400
<v Speaker 1>writing the book, putting it together and learning about all

0:33:23.400 --> 0:33:25.640
<v Speaker 1>these people teach you about the way that you want

0:33:25.640 --> 0:33:29.600
<v Speaker 1>to spend this time. Yeah, well I think, um, if

0:33:29.600 --> 0:33:33.160
<v Speaker 1>there was, I guess a lesson and it was for me. Um,

0:33:33.560 --> 0:33:37.560
<v Speaker 1>sort of don't lay on the couch. Uh, it's not

0:33:37.680 --> 0:33:43.680
<v Speaker 1>agreeable anyway, and um, don't watch too much tea. We

0:33:43.840 --> 0:33:47.880
<v Speaker 1>started talking about what working too much television. Maybe don't

0:33:47.920 --> 0:33:51.000
<v Speaker 1>watch daytime television or don't binge during the day, get

0:33:51.040 --> 0:33:54.520
<v Speaker 1>out of the house unless it's Bloomberg TV, unless it's

0:33:54.520 --> 0:33:57.000
<v Speaker 1>what it is interesting in this time post pandemic, where

0:33:57.000 --> 0:34:01.520
<v Speaker 1>it's like, go live life. Yeah, you know, it's really honestly,

0:34:01.560 --> 0:34:04.520
<v Speaker 1>the few little things I've done which sounds they're inconsequential

0:34:04.560 --> 0:34:06.960
<v Speaker 1>in the scope of things, but they've been for me.

0:34:07.600 --> 0:34:09.959
<v Speaker 1>I'm not so sure any they're helping anybody in the world.

0:34:10.000 --> 0:34:13.680
<v Speaker 1>I hope a teeny bit. They're certainly making my eyes

0:34:13.880 --> 0:34:18.520
<v Speaker 1>open to the world because my world has been pretty

0:34:18.960 --> 0:34:22.759
<v Speaker 1>um I wouldn't say monolithic, but um, familiar for a

0:34:22.840 --> 0:34:25.120
<v Speaker 1>very long period of time. We really enjoyed this, and

0:34:25.239 --> 0:34:27.200
<v Speaker 1>good luck with the book. And when you're on your

0:34:27.239 --> 0:34:29.560
<v Speaker 1>third act or fourth act or whatever, come back in

0:34:30.040 --> 0:34:32.320
<v Speaker 1>and come talk with us. Thanks so much for having you.

0:34:33.360 --> 0:34:36.120
<v Speaker 1>We wish you well. Josh Sapan. He's former president and

0:34:36.320 --> 0:34:38.480
<v Speaker 1>CEO of a MC Networks. Check out his book I

0:34:38.480 --> 0:34:41.839
<v Speaker 1>put it out on Twitter. Um Josh. His new book

0:34:41.920 --> 0:34:44.640
<v Speaker 1>is the third Act, reinventing your next Chapter. So delighted

0:34:44.640 --> 0:34:47.680
<v Speaker 1>to have him here in studio. Thanks again. You're listening

0:34:47.760 --> 0:34:51.239
<v Speaker 1>to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast Cat Just Live week

0:34:51.320 --> 0:34:54.360
<v Speaker 1>days from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

0:34:54.560 --> 0:34:57.480
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business App, and you too. You can also

0:34:57.560 --> 0:35:00.839
<v Speaker 1>listen live to our flagship New York station, Just Say

0:35:00.920 --> 0:35:06.320
<v Speaker 1>Alexa play Bloomberg Love and Dirty. Uh. If you've spent

0:35:06.440 --> 0:35:08.680
<v Speaker 1>any time in the dairy aisle of the supermarket, you

0:35:08.719 --> 0:35:11.520
<v Speaker 1>have definitely seen cheese, yogurt, butter and more from Tillamook.

0:35:11.560 --> 0:35:13.759
<v Speaker 1>It's a dairy co ops started back in the early

0:35:13.840 --> 0:35:17.360
<v Speaker 1>nineteen hundreds. Today is a one billion dollar brand that

0:35:17.400 --> 0:35:21.239
<v Speaker 1>sells products everywhere from Albertson's to Target, to Walmart and

0:35:21.320 --> 0:35:23.160
<v Speaker 1>so much more. And we got the CEO with us.

0:35:23.160 --> 0:35:25.799
<v Speaker 1>Patrick Kreitzer, the CEO of Tillamook. He joins us now

0:35:25.880 --> 0:35:28.359
<v Speaker 1>via zoom from Oregon. Okay, Patrick, we're gonna talk about

0:35:28.360 --> 0:35:29.839
<v Speaker 1>a lot. We're gonna talk about the business. We're gonna

0:35:29.840 --> 0:35:31.920
<v Speaker 1>talk about inflation. We're gonna talk about what you see

0:35:31.960 --> 0:35:34.960
<v Speaker 1>in the economy, But first, what the heck do you

0:35:34.960 --> 0:35:38.520
<v Speaker 1>put in the ice cream? Because everyone I talked to,

0:35:38.600 --> 0:35:41.640
<v Speaker 1>including you know myself, because I love the Tillamook ice

0:35:41.640 --> 0:35:44.920
<v Speaker 1>cream husband, huge fan, Jason Kelly, our colleague, when he

0:35:44.920 --> 0:35:46.680
<v Speaker 1>found out I was interviewing you, he said, you have

0:35:46.760 --> 0:35:48.080
<v Speaker 1>to try the ice cream. And I'm like, I know,

0:35:48.160 --> 0:35:50.080
<v Speaker 1>We've already talked about the ice cream. What's up with

0:35:50.080 --> 0:35:53.000
<v Speaker 1>the ice cream? Well, there's lots of cream in it.

0:35:53.120 --> 0:35:55.279
<v Speaker 1>We put a lot of dairy in the in every

0:35:55.280 --> 0:35:57.279
<v Speaker 1>one of those ice cream cartons. A lot of a

0:35:57.280 --> 0:35:59.160
<v Speaker 1>lot of love goes into making that, and I'm glad

0:35:59.200 --> 0:36:01.880
<v Speaker 1>you appreciate. So the secret is is the is the

0:36:01.960 --> 0:36:05.359
<v Speaker 1>dairy like it's an extra serving of dairy or something, right?

0:36:05.760 --> 0:36:07.960
<v Speaker 1>It is, Yeah, lots of extra cream. And when you

0:36:08.000 --> 0:36:11.080
<v Speaker 1>make ice cream, uh, you know, you you determine how

0:36:11.160 --> 0:36:13.920
<v Speaker 1>much cream to put in there, and almost also how

0:36:14.040 --> 0:36:16.600
<v Speaker 1>much sort of how much to fluff it up. And

0:36:16.680 --> 0:36:18.640
<v Speaker 1>we do a little less fluffing and a little more

0:36:18.680 --> 0:36:21.440
<v Speaker 1>cream and it tastes fantastic. What's weird, though, is and

0:36:21.440 --> 0:36:23.560
<v Speaker 1>this is a business question, It's not like it's much

0:36:23.600 --> 0:36:27.200
<v Speaker 1>more expensive than sort of competitors right there in terms

0:36:27.200 --> 0:36:28.720
<v Speaker 1>of how you how you think about how it's presented,

0:36:28.760 --> 0:36:31.480
<v Speaker 1>because it comes as like a big you get a

0:36:31.480 --> 0:36:33.800
<v Speaker 1>lot for your money. It's like still a good value.

0:36:34.120 --> 0:36:36.000
<v Speaker 1>How do you make that How do you calculate that move?

0:36:36.000 --> 0:36:39.279
<v Speaker 1>Because the dairy part is the expensive part. It is,

0:36:39.320 --> 0:36:41.400
<v Speaker 1>you're right, the expensive part. And I'm glad you you

0:36:41.480 --> 0:36:44.719
<v Speaker 1>recognize that we we position the brand as it has

0:36:44.760 --> 0:36:50.160
<v Speaker 1>been for over a century, um as everyday premium, which means, yeah,

0:36:50.160 --> 0:36:52.759
<v Speaker 1>you're gonna pay a little bit more for it, but

0:36:52.800 --> 0:36:55.040
<v Speaker 1>there's a lot of value packed into that ice cream

0:36:55.080 --> 0:36:58.040
<v Speaker 1>carton or into that package of cheese and uh. And

0:36:58.120 --> 0:37:00.560
<v Speaker 1>so we're trying to make it accessible and off that

0:37:00.600 --> 0:37:02.480
<v Speaker 1>you're gonna pick it up every week, enjoy it every

0:37:02.520 --> 0:37:05.640
<v Speaker 1>week in your home. Um, but you'll appreciate the quality

0:37:05.680 --> 0:37:07.680
<v Speaker 1>that you paid a little bit more for. Hey, Patrick,

0:37:07.880 --> 0:37:09.879
<v Speaker 1>you know you are in and out of I'm sure

0:37:09.920 --> 0:37:12.680
<v Speaker 1>all of the stores that stuck your items. Um, there's

0:37:12.719 --> 0:37:14.759
<v Speaker 1>a lot of competition out there, So how do you

0:37:14.840 --> 0:37:18.120
<v Speaker 1>make sure that you do stand out? And I'd love

0:37:18.160 --> 0:37:20.320
<v Speaker 1>for you to get into the relationship with your suppliers

0:37:20.360 --> 0:37:25.239
<v Speaker 1>meeting the farmers and the individuals that you work with directly. Yeah, absolutely,

0:37:25.280 --> 0:37:27.520
<v Speaker 1>and um, those two things are very connected for us

0:37:27.560 --> 0:37:29.760
<v Speaker 1>because it all starts with that relationship with the farmers.

0:37:29.800 --> 0:37:32.719
<v Speaker 1>We are a hundred and fourteen year old farmer own

0:37:32.800 --> 0:37:36.840
<v Speaker 1>cooperative UM. And in fact, cheese, which is our primary product,

0:37:37.239 --> 0:37:39.000
<v Speaker 1>is made the same way it was a hundred and

0:37:39.000 --> 0:37:43.680
<v Speaker 1>fourteen years ago, and our farmers, uh, you know, require

0:37:43.840 --> 0:37:46.279
<v Speaker 1>demand that that we that we keep the recipes the

0:37:46.320 --> 0:37:48.919
<v Speaker 1>same and and as we were just talking about, put

0:37:49.440 --> 0:37:52.279
<v Speaker 1>put a bit extra value in in every product, and

0:37:52.640 --> 0:37:55.400
<v Speaker 1>that's important to them, UM, and that's helped to stand

0:37:55.400 --> 0:37:58.040
<v Speaker 1>out on the shelf as we've expanded across the country.

0:37:58.320 --> 0:38:01.480
<v Speaker 1>Up until two thousand fourteen, we were a much beloved

0:38:01.640 --> 0:38:05.160
<v Speaker 1>Pacific Northwest brand, and then beginning in two thousand and fourteen,

0:38:05.200 --> 0:38:08.640
<v Speaker 1>we began expanding around the West. And now we've been

0:38:08.719 --> 0:38:11.600
<v Speaker 1>very pleased with the acceptance we received around the country

0:38:11.880 --> 0:38:14.480
<v Speaker 1>as we've expanded into as you said at the top

0:38:14.480 --> 0:38:17.560
<v Speaker 1>of the show, here every market in the country, and

0:38:17.560 --> 0:38:20.399
<v Speaker 1>we're now in one quarter of US households. But we've

0:38:20.400 --> 0:38:23.120
<v Speaker 1>got a lot more people to introduced, uh introduced to

0:38:23.120 --> 0:38:25.359
<v Speaker 1>the Tillamook brand. Well, I have to say just our

0:38:25.440 --> 0:38:28.279
<v Speaker 1>own personal experience, and I did so my husband a

0:38:28.320 --> 0:38:29.960
<v Speaker 1>quick message. I'm like, guess who we have on We

0:38:30.000 --> 0:38:32.400
<v Speaker 1>have the CEO of Tillamook and he's like, love their

0:38:32.400 --> 0:38:34.080
<v Speaker 1>ice cream. I have to say, the search for it

0:38:34.200 --> 0:38:39.840
<v Speaker 1>sometimes in this market, UM is really tough. I was

0:38:39.880 --> 0:38:42.759
<v Speaker 1>a target recently and there was like only two cartons.

0:38:42.880 --> 0:38:47.040
<v Speaker 1>I mean, so are you continuing to grow? How do

0:38:47.040 --> 0:38:48.640
<v Speaker 1>you like make sure that you can meet all the

0:38:48.680 --> 0:38:53.680
<v Speaker 1>demand as you expand? And yeah, yeah, thank you, Yeah,

0:38:53.680 --> 0:38:57.360
<v Speaker 1>we are continuing to UM to expand. In fact, before

0:38:57.440 --> 0:39:01.760
<v Speaker 1>two thousand eighteen, we were all the west of the Rockies,

0:39:01.800 --> 0:39:05.080
<v Speaker 1>so all the places that folks are are beginning to

0:39:05.120 --> 0:39:07.400
<v Speaker 1>discover us. You know, there might not be quite as

0:39:07.520 --> 0:39:10.400
<v Speaker 1>much on the shelf there as we'd like to like

0:39:10.520 --> 0:39:13.200
<v Speaker 1>to have, and and we're we're trying to rectify that.

0:39:13.239 --> 0:39:16.280
<v Speaker 1>We're bringing product out there as fast as we can. UM.

0:39:16.480 --> 0:39:18.879
<v Speaker 1>But you know, one thing I'll suggests is when you're

0:39:18.920 --> 0:39:21.000
<v Speaker 1>in the store and you don't think there's enough Tillamook product,

0:39:21.040 --> 0:39:23.759
<v Speaker 1>go talk to the store manager and that will help

0:39:23.800 --> 0:39:27.160
<v Speaker 1>a little bit. Hey, uh, do you guys only uh

0:39:27.360 --> 0:39:33.560
<v Speaker 1>produce products at the headquarters in Telemaco Rent, Oregon. No,

0:39:33.760 --> 0:39:36.880
<v Speaker 1>we've actually expanded a bit UM since our early days

0:39:36.960 --> 0:39:39.880
<v Speaker 1>of all the production being in Tillamook. All of the

0:39:39.960 --> 0:39:44.800
<v Speaker 1>dairy farmers UH that own the cooperative UH do live

0:39:45.000 --> 0:39:48.360
<v Speaker 1>and farm in Tilama County. UH. Many people that know

0:39:48.400 --> 0:39:50.840
<v Speaker 1>our brand don't know that Tillamooks a town in a

0:39:50.840 --> 0:39:54.040
<v Speaker 1>place actually the high school mascot is the Cheesemaker. So

0:39:54.080 --> 0:39:57.360
<v Speaker 1>we're very much integrated into that community and and owned

0:39:57.400 --> 0:40:00.560
<v Speaker 1>by that community. UM. But as we've expanded around the country,

0:40:00.840 --> 0:40:04.600
<v Speaker 1>we've partnered with other cooperatives and and and other manufacturing

0:40:04.640 --> 0:40:08.799
<v Speaker 1>partners to make product to our very UH precise and

0:40:09.000 --> 0:40:13.080
<v Speaker 1>high expectations and specifications in other places in the country,

0:40:13.239 --> 0:40:16.319
<v Speaker 1>so we can make sure we're getting product into those

0:40:16.320 --> 0:40:18.680
<v Speaker 1>stores where people are Listen. Is there any discernible difference

0:40:18.680 --> 0:40:22.520
<v Speaker 1>between something made in one facility with with UH dairy

0:40:22.600 --> 0:40:27.040
<v Speaker 1>from one area versus another area? There isn't. UM. You know,

0:40:27.120 --> 0:40:29.200
<v Speaker 1>we do make all of our cheddar cheese, which is

0:40:29.200 --> 0:40:32.399
<v Speaker 1>our core product. We do make all of that in Oregon, UH,

0:40:32.480 --> 0:40:34.920
<v Speaker 1>and then we moved around the country. We cut and

0:40:35.000 --> 0:40:38.160
<v Speaker 1>rapid in a few different places, but it's fundamentally made

0:40:38.239 --> 0:40:41.360
<v Speaker 1>all in Oregon and with our recipe, but where we

0:40:41.360 --> 0:40:44.959
<v Speaker 1>do make other products, for example, cream, cheese or ice

0:40:44.960 --> 0:40:50.359
<v Speaker 1>cream with partners where in those factories are very close partnerships.

0:40:50.520 --> 0:40:54.839
<v Speaker 1>In some cases our partners will put in equipment specific

0:40:54.920 --> 0:40:57.759
<v Speaker 1>to the way we make product because of you know,

0:40:57.840 --> 0:41:00.160
<v Speaker 1>we're not varying the way we make it, so you

0:41:00.160 --> 0:41:02.560
<v Speaker 1>can't tell any difference if you've come visit us at

0:41:02.600 --> 0:41:05.080
<v Speaker 1>our visitor center until MC Oregon, which a lot of

0:41:05.160 --> 0:41:07.640
<v Speaker 1>people do. We we've had one point three million people

0:41:07.719 --> 0:41:10.160
<v Speaker 1>visit us in a single year there in our factory

0:41:10.160 --> 0:41:12.399
<v Speaker 1>on the coast. Become visit us there, the products gonna

0:41:12.400 --> 0:41:14.880
<v Speaker 1>be exactly the same as you find in Wigmants Patrick,

0:41:14.960 --> 0:41:16.799
<v Speaker 1>what's the bulk of your business? Is that the ice

0:41:16.800 --> 0:41:18.319
<v Speaker 1>cream or is it the cheese? As you say, your

0:41:18.360 --> 0:41:21.759
<v Speaker 1>main product and where is the most growth most of

0:41:21.800 --> 0:41:25.279
<v Speaker 1>our business is in the is cheese ice cream has

0:41:25.280 --> 0:41:28.640
<v Speaker 1>been our fastest growing product. It's it's turned out to be,

0:41:28.840 --> 0:41:31.160
<v Speaker 1>you know, as we've expanded into new regions in the US,

0:41:31.239 --> 0:41:34.000
<v Speaker 1>has turned out to be sort of the easiest entry

0:41:34.040 --> 0:41:36.560
<v Speaker 1>point for consumers to kind of find us that you know,

0:41:36.600 --> 0:41:39.440
<v Speaker 1>hopefully that big wall of a full door of of

0:41:39.480 --> 0:41:42.640
<v Speaker 1>ice cream flavors with our bright colored packaging. UM kind

0:41:42.680 --> 0:41:45.640
<v Speaker 1>of draws people into the brand. And then once they

0:41:45.719 --> 0:41:48.719
<v Speaker 1>find us there, they like to move and discover our

0:41:48.800 --> 0:41:51.400
<v Speaker 1>cheese and our cream cheese and our other products. You know,

0:41:51.480 --> 0:41:53.960
<v Speaker 1>consumer product company is always looking for a good brand.

0:41:54.040 --> 0:41:57.440
<v Speaker 1>You seem like you would be ripe for UM. The

0:41:57.560 --> 0:42:01.960
<v Speaker 1>taking UM, staying a coop, cooperative, staying private, still the

0:42:02.000 --> 0:42:05.360
<v Speaker 1>plan and just got about five seconds. Yeah, that is

0:42:05.400 --> 0:42:08.480
<v Speaker 1>the plan. Certainly we get those calls, but our farmers

0:42:08.840 --> 0:42:11.360
<v Speaker 1>are very proud to own this brand and this company

0:42:11.360 --> 0:42:14.120
<v Speaker 1>and what it's meant to our local community. Well to

0:42:14.239 --> 0:42:16.360
<v Speaker 1>come back soon. This is a great story and certainly

0:42:16.400 --> 0:42:20.120
<v Speaker 1>something that is very relevant to our worlds. I'm sure

0:42:20.160 --> 0:42:22.879
<v Speaker 1>Tim will have some ice cream ice cream tonight, and

0:42:23.000 --> 0:42:25.120
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure I will as I get the chocolate chip

0:42:25.120 --> 0:42:29.400
<v Speaker 1>mint that's my husband's. That's what I like to um. Patrick,

0:42:29.440 --> 0:42:32.040
<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much. Patrick kritz Are He's CEO of

0:42:32.080 --> 0:42:35.600
<v Speaker 1>Temo joining spa Zoom from Oregon. Really fun conversation. This

0:42:35.640 --> 0:42:39.920
<v Speaker 1>is Bloomberg. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast.

0:42:40.160 --> 0:42:42.680
<v Speaker 1>Catch us live week days from two to five pm

0:42:42.719 --> 0:42:46.560
<v Speaker 1>Eastern on Bloomberg Radio. The Bloomberg Business a band. You two.

0:42:46.840 --> 0:42:49.960
<v Speaker 1>You can also listen live to our flagship New York station.

0:42:50.360 --> 0:42:55.759
<v Speaker 1>Just say Alexa, play Bloomberg. Elvendy. We're gonna stay in

0:42:55.840 --> 0:42:59.160
<v Speaker 1>Miami and welcome in as well our Bloomberg TV audience

0:42:59.280 --> 0:43:02.080
<v Speaker 1>and you too. You and Bloomberg Originals are streaming service

0:43:02.080 --> 0:43:04.319
<v Speaker 1>because we've got a special guest. Cathy Wood is back

0:43:04.360 --> 0:43:07.760
<v Speaker 1>with us. She's the founder, chief investment Officer and CEO

0:43:08.000 --> 0:43:11.760
<v Speaker 1>of our Investment Management, joining us from St. Petersburg, Florida. Kathy,

0:43:11.880 --> 0:43:14.040
<v Speaker 1>great to have you back with us. Happy New Year,

0:43:14.320 --> 0:43:16.920
<v Speaker 1>Happy New Year. I'm I'm really happy to be with you,

0:43:16.960 --> 0:43:20.080
<v Speaker 1>and it is so far a happy new year. It's

0:43:20.320 --> 0:43:23.200
<v Speaker 1>definitely a different tone. Well, you know, it's interesting we

0:43:23.239 --> 0:43:25.800
<v Speaker 1>watched yesterday continuing today even though we're off our highs.

0:43:25.800 --> 0:43:28.920
<v Speaker 1>When it comes to stocks, Kathy, it seemed the more J.

0:43:29.120 --> 0:43:33.239
<v Speaker 1>Powell talked, the more you know excitement you saw, and

0:43:33.239 --> 0:43:35.080
<v Speaker 1>it moves to the upside when it came to both

0:43:35.080 --> 0:43:38.279
<v Speaker 1>stocks and bonds. Does this market reaction make sense to

0:43:38.360 --> 0:43:41.160
<v Speaker 1>you or do you see some irrational exuberance if you

0:43:41.200 --> 0:43:45.640
<v Speaker 1>will know? If anything, I I saw an exaggerated UH

0:43:46.280 --> 0:43:52.000
<v Speaker 1>reaction last year to fears that inflation and interest rates

0:43:52.040 --> 0:43:55.799
<v Speaker 1>were embedded in the system UH like they were in

0:43:55.840 --> 0:43:58.040
<v Speaker 1>the seventies, and we just didn't believe that at all.

0:43:58.080 --> 0:44:00.280
<v Speaker 1>In fact, we were seeing a lot of early lines

0:44:00.360 --> 0:44:06.359
<v Speaker 1>of UH inflation coming down, actual deflation surfacing. So this

0:44:06.440 --> 0:44:09.080
<v Speaker 1>does not surprise us. I think what has happened here

0:44:09.480 --> 0:44:12.480
<v Speaker 1>there there are three people who have weighed in in

0:44:12.480 --> 0:44:15.879
<v Speaker 1>in in the last week who really have changed their

0:44:15.920 --> 0:44:20.840
<v Speaker 1>points of view. One is Larry Summers. Larry Summers was

0:44:20.920 --> 0:44:24.440
<v Speaker 1>almost apoplectic last year, so this is the former Treasury

0:44:24.440 --> 0:44:30.840
<v Speaker 1>sector almost eplectic about inflation. And I think he truly

0:44:31.080 --> 0:44:35.120
<v Speaker 1>influenced the FED because he was so sure that we

0:44:35.120 --> 0:44:38.640
<v Speaker 1>were in a seventies style inflation. If you'll notice in

0:44:38.680 --> 0:44:43.280
<v Speaker 1>the last week he said, okay, now, don't don't signal

0:44:43.360 --> 0:44:44.959
<v Speaker 1>what you're going to do in the future. We're seeing

0:44:45.000 --> 0:44:48.399
<v Speaker 1>some economic weakness year. And I think the other thing

0:44:48.440 --> 0:44:51.799
<v Speaker 1>he was saying, not explicitly, was hey, some prices are

0:44:51.800 --> 0:44:54.120
<v Speaker 1>coming down that I didn't expect to come down. You know,

0:44:54.200 --> 0:44:58.120
<v Speaker 1>the oil prices roughly half of where it was last March.

0:44:58.800 --> 0:45:02.400
<v Speaker 1>So that's that's the first person. The second person was

0:45:02.960 --> 0:45:07.120
<v Speaker 1>Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. And remember, I think the market

0:45:07.200 --> 0:45:10.600
<v Speaker 1>last year got really upset when she changed her mind

0:45:10.640 --> 0:45:15.160
<v Speaker 1>on transitory and uh and and and I think that

0:45:15.320 --> 0:45:19.880
<v Speaker 1>fed Chairman Powell as well, and uh and and turned

0:45:19.960 --> 0:45:23.080
<v Speaker 1>him into an even more hawkish mode along with the

0:45:23.120 --> 0:45:27.440
<v Speaker 1>rest of the Ford board members. She this week said

0:45:27.840 --> 0:45:31.200
<v Speaker 1>that now that inflation is coming down, we're probably going

0:45:31.280 --> 0:45:34.600
<v Speaker 1>to be looking at the bigger risk being kind of

0:45:34.680 --> 0:45:38.759
<v Speaker 1>mired in low inflation low growth. That was a big

0:45:39.200 --> 0:45:44.560
<v Speaker 1>and it effectively says, wow, maybe it was transitory after all.

0:45:44.719 --> 0:45:47.080
<v Speaker 1>It was just a little longer than we expected. Who

0:45:47.120 --> 0:45:49.880
<v Speaker 1>knew supply chain problems would last two to three years?

0:45:50.239 --> 0:45:54.640
<v Speaker 1>Who knew Russia would invade? And then the third the

0:45:54.719 --> 0:45:57.000
<v Speaker 1>third thing that happened. This was really important. I think

0:45:57.440 --> 0:46:01.359
<v Speaker 1>in the Q and A um Herman Powell himself said,

0:46:02.320 --> 0:46:05.839
<v Speaker 1>I agree with Lyle Brainerd. We do not believe we're

0:46:05.840 --> 0:46:08.719
<v Speaker 1>in the middle of a weight price spiral. And that's

0:46:08.760 --> 0:46:14.560
<v Speaker 1>another code phrase for the seventies style inflation. So I

0:46:14.600 --> 0:46:17.640
<v Speaker 1>think that is what the markets responding to. Cathy, you've

0:46:17.680 --> 0:46:20.839
<v Speaker 1>talked about the threat of deflation, So what's your view

0:46:20.880 --> 0:46:24.920
<v Speaker 1>of that versus inflation right here? Well, a couple of

0:46:24.960 --> 0:46:28.960
<v Speaker 1>things we see the deflation in the pipeline because commodity prices,

0:46:29.080 --> 0:46:33.000
<v Speaker 1>which are at the top of the funnel, have been

0:46:33.040 --> 0:46:37.479
<v Speaker 1>coming down on balance. Now we're we're seeing right now

0:46:38.080 --> 0:46:42.399
<v Speaker 1>some interruptions in that as China moves away from its

0:46:42.680 --> 0:46:46.399
<v Speaker 1>zero COVID policy. But I think the fake out here

0:46:46.680 --> 0:46:51.480
<v Speaker 1>is China has been building inventories, particularly of energy. It's

0:46:51.520 --> 0:46:57.040
<v Speaker 1>been getting Rusha's energy for discount to what the rest

0:46:57.120 --> 0:46:59.560
<v Speaker 1>of us are paying, So why wouldn't it build inventories?

0:47:00.080 --> 0:47:04.560
<v Speaker 1>So I think I think UM that fear is probably

0:47:04.640 --> 0:47:08.480
<v Speaker 1>going to be or has been a little overblown in

0:47:08.600 --> 0:47:12.680
<v Speaker 1>terms of ramifications for inflation. UH. And I also don't

0:47:12.960 --> 0:47:16.520
<v Speaker 1>China's China's taking off. But anyway, we have the funnel.

0:47:16.560 --> 0:47:21.040
<v Speaker 1>We had at a holiday time massive discounting UH. And

0:47:21.200 --> 0:47:24.600
<v Speaker 1>even though we had massive discounting in the fourth quarter,

0:47:25.239 --> 0:47:30.279
<v Speaker 1>inventory accumulation accelerated. That was the biggest surprise to me.

0:47:30.800 --> 0:47:34.680
<v Speaker 1>Wait a minute, final sales where that punk uh. That

0:47:34.760 --> 0:47:39.600
<v Speaker 1>inventories built even though retailers and others were trying to

0:47:39.640 --> 0:47:43.359
<v Speaker 1>clear the shelves with these massive discounts. That was very

0:47:43.440 --> 0:47:47.239
<v Speaker 1>interesting to me. So I think underlying demand here is

0:47:47.640 --> 0:47:53.120
<v Speaker 1>UM Basically the consumer railing against price increases because real

0:47:53.239 --> 0:47:57.279
<v Speaker 1>average wages have gone down and the consumer is going

0:47:57.280 --> 0:47:59.399
<v Speaker 1>to win this battle. Kathy, I want to go back

0:47:59.440 --> 0:48:01.360
<v Speaker 1>to the way that characterize what we heard from the

0:48:01.400 --> 0:48:04.480
<v Speaker 1>FED and J Powell yesterday, because he also said some

0:48:04.560 --> 0:48:07.759
<v Speaker 1>other things like further rate hikes will be appropriate. It's

0:48:07.800 --> 0:48:10.480
<v Speaker 1>premature to declare victory. We have a lot of work

0:48:10.600 --> 0:48:12.880
<v Speaker 1>left to do, and if our outlook turns true, then

0:48:12.880 --> 0:48:16.200
<v Speaker 1>I don't see us cutting rates this year. What convinces

0:48:16.280 --> 0:48:20.719
<v Speaker 1>you that his views have changed. Well, I think he

0:48:20.880 --> 0:48:24.319
<v Speaker 1>is looking at the bond market and he's saying what

0:48:24.400 --> 0:48:28.520
<v Speaker 1>he should say as as a FED chairman who has

0:48:28.640 --> 0:48:32.479
<v Speaker 1>been very concerned about inflation. He can't turn on a dime.

0:48:33.239 --> 0:48:35.960
<v Speaker 1>But just look at what the bond market saying. The

0:48:36.440 --> 0:48:39.399
<v Speaker 1>long term bond yield peaked in October at four point

0:48:39.480 --> 0:48:42.960
<v Speaker 1>three percent, and today we got down to I believe

0:48:43.040 --> 0:48:46.359
<v Speaker 1>three point three five. You know, if if you look

0:48:46.400 --> 0:48:49.399
<v Speaker 1>at the tenure bond yield as a proxy for what

0:48:50.360 --> 0:48:54.480
<v Speaker 1>effectively nominal GDP give or take a little uh nominal

0:48:54.560 --> 0:48:58.160
<v Speaker 1>GDP growth will be over the next ten years, that

0:48:58.200 --> 0:49:02.560
<v Speaker 1>doesn't need leave a lot of room for for much inflation.

0:49:02.640 --> 0:49:04.919
<v Speaker 1>If we're going to have real growth over the next

0:49:04.920 --> 0:49:08.280
<v Speaker 1>ten years. So I think the markets are speaking loudly.

0:49:08.320 --> 0:49:12.120
<v Speaker 1>I think the inverted Yiel curve, we're still around seventy

0:49:12.160 --> 0:49:14.640
<v Speaker 1>basis points haven't been that. We haven't seen it this

0:49:14.760 --> 0:49:18.040
<v Speaker 1>low since the early eighties when Vulcar was trying to

0:49:18.120 --> 0:49:22.000
<v Speaker 1>strangle inflation out of the system, and he did so. Cathy,

0:49:22.040 --> 0:49:23.359
<v Speaker 1>forgive me, I want to jump in for a second,

0:49:23.400 --> 0:49:25.439
<v Speaker 1>because so are you expecting the FED to cut rates

0:49:25.480 --> 0:49:28.040
<v Speaker 1>this year? I would not be surprised to see the

0:49:28.040 --> 0:49:30.920
<v Speaker 1>Fed cut rates this year. Uh. And one of the

0:49:30.960 --> 0:49:36.359
<v Speaker 1>other reasons that we're very focused on this message that

0:49:36.400 --> 0:49:41.680
<v Speaker 1>the bigger risk is deflation, it's also a very big opportunity.

0:49:42.360 --> 0:49:46.000
<v Speaker 1>Um when when we look at deflation, there are there's

0:49:46.040 --> 0:49:49.799
<v Speaker 1>good deflation and there's bad deflation. The bad deflation is

0:49:49.840 --> 0:49:56.080
<v Speaker 1>caused by demand destruction. The good deflation creates demand. And

0:49:56.200 --> 0:50:01.640
<v Speaker 1>that is what our research is centered on, which is

0:50:02.760 --> 0:50:09.960
<v Speaker 1>illogically enabled innovation that rides down learning curves, which are

0:50:10.000 --> 0:50:14.359
<v Speaker 1>expressed by cost declines, which turn into price declines. You'll

0:50:14.360 --> 0:50:19.600
<v Speaker 1>notice that Tesla is cutting cutting prices and many many

0:50:19.640 --> 0:50:24.239
<v Speaker 1>people jump to the conclusion that, oh, they're having so

0:50:24.320 --> 0:50:28.160
<v Speaker 1>much trouble now there's so much more competition. No Tesla

0:50:28.440 --> 0:50:32.920
<v Speaker 1>can cut prices now that supply chain issues are passing

0:50:33.040 --> 0:50:37.279
<v Speaker 1>us because it is riding down a cost curve. The

0:50:37.320 --> 0:50:42.000
<v Speaker 1>battery cost curve declines. And I think it's battery costs

0:50:42.000 --> 0:50:45.440
<v Speaker 1>are lower than anyone else's. It's drive train costs is

0:50:45.520 --> 0:50:51.080
<v Speaker 1>more more correctly, UH said, are are lower than anyone's

0:50:51.200 --> 0:50:55.399
<v Speaker 1>out there. And so he wants he wants to proliferate

0:50:55.520 --> 0:51:01.279
<v Speaker 1>electric vehicles to save us from environmental disaster. That is

0:51:01.440 --> 0:51:05.320
<v Speaker 1>his mission, and he is going to drive down prices.

0:51:05.360 --> 0:51:09.280
<v Speaker 1>When you drive down prices, units explode. It's no surprise

0:51:09.320 --> 0:51:15.240
<v Speaker 1>to us even without price cuts. Last year that electric

0:51:15.320 --> 0:51:19.280
<v Speaker 1>vehicle demand was up more than sixty percent while gas

0:51:19.280 --> 0:51:23.880
<v Speaker 1>powered demand was down. I believe seven percent. The consumer

0:51:23.920 --> 0:51:29.239
<v Speaker 1>pref shift has occurred. We are now in prime time

0:51:29.280 --> 0:51:31.200
<v Speaker 1>for electric vehicles. I want to go back to Tesla

0:51:31.200 --> 0:51:32.360
<v Speaker 1>in a moment, but I want to go back to

0:51:32.400 --> 0:51:34.640
<v Speaker 1>here our innovation E t F. We've done the story

0:51:34.640 --> 0:51:38.160
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg. You guys had the best month on record

0:51:38.239 --> 0:51:41.520
<v Speaker 1>for the fund, up twenty eight percent. All r E

0:51:41.640 --> 0:51:43.960
<v Speaker 1>t F s, all the eight ones E t F

0:51:44.000 --> 0:51:45.759
<v Speaker 1>s are up seven of them in double digits. Do

0:51:45.840 --> 0:51:50.520
<v Speaker 1>you see that as vindication for your investment theses, um,

0:51:50.560 --> 0:51:54.000
<v Speaker 1>and do you think it can continue? Yes, we believe

0:51:54.239 --> 0:51:58.480
<v Speaker 1>that Innovation was one of the biggest victims of the

0:51:59.640 --> 0:52:03.720
<v Speaker 1>of a massive interest rate in increase we saw last

0:52:03.800 --> 0:52:07.280
<v Speaker 1>year and less than a year, I think eighteenfold increase

0:52:07.760 --> 0:52:12.880
<v Speaker 1>in interest rates. It was like a massive earthquake. And

0:52:13.080 --> 0:52:16.120
<v Speaker 1>the other victim, of course was the other very long

0:52:16.239 --> 0:52:20.359
<v Speaker 1>duration asset out their long term bonds. Uh. They were

0:52:20.440 --> 0:52:24.280
<v Speaker 1>hit at least through October, if if my numbers are correct,

0:52:24.840 --> 0:52:30.160
<v Speaker 1>The long bond market had not seen that um, that

0:52:30.480 --> 0:52:35.080
<v Speaker 1>bad a year since the seventeen hundreds. We're not We're

0:52:35.080 --> 0:52:37.279
<v Speaker 1>not talking post World War two. We're talking about the

0:52:38.880 --> 0:52:42.359
<v Speaker 1>That gives you a sense of the shock to the system,

0:52:42.400 --> 0:52:46.239
<v Speaker 1>and the shock to our strategy was palpable. Boy, we

0:52:46.400 --> 0:52:51.200
<v Speaker 1>felt it every time Chairman Pale spoke. We're speaking with

0:52:51.280 --> 0:52:54.600
<v Speaker 1>Cathy Wood, CEO of ARC Investment Management. Kathy Carroll just

0:52:54.680 --> 0:52:57.920
<v Speaker 1>asked you about the performance in January and she mentioned

0:52:58.000 --> 0:52:59.880
<v Speaker 1>that it's the best month ever for the ARC Innovation

0:53:00.040 --> 0:53:02.799
<v Speaker 1>e t F. The thing is is that the jump

0:53:02.840 --> 0:53:06.239
<v Speaker 1>in performance hasn't been met with in the way of

0:53:06.280 --> 0:53:10.480
<v Speaker 1>flows with investors putting money back into ARC. Perhaps this

0:53:10.520 --> 0:53:13.279
<v Speaker 1>is because it's been a tough couple of years for

0:53:13.400 --> 0:53:14.880
<v Speaker 1>the e t F and for many of your E

0:53:14.960 --> 0:53:19.400
<v Speaker 1>t f s. How do you win them back? Well, actually,

0:53:19.400 --> 0:53:22.440
<v Speaker 1>I don't think we lost many investors. I think the

0:53:22.520 --> 0:53:27.359
<v Speaker 1>shock to most people is how well we held our

0:53:27.440 --> 0:53:32.600
<v Speaker 1>assets in Our underperformance started in February of twenty one,

0:53:32.960 --> 0:53:36.799
<v Speaker 1>when people were starting to get vaccinated, going back to work,

0:53:36.840 --> 0:53:40.600
<v Speaker 1>and these fears of inflation started to surface. So since

0:53:40.719 --> 0:53:45.719
<v Speaker 1>February of twenty one, we have seen a massive down

0:53:45.840 --> 0:53:51.279
<v Speaker 1>round in our innovation strategies, and in twenty one we

0:53:51.360 --> 0:53:56.000
<v Speaker 1>had very significant inflows, most of which we kept. I

0:53:56.040 --> 0:54:00.000
<v Speaker 1>think the net was seventeen billion that year. Last year

0:54:00.760 --> 0:54:05.000
<v Speaker 1>again a horrific year. I think for the year our

0:54:05.080 --> 0:54:10.520
<v Speaker 1>flagship was so a r k K was in flows

0:54:11.200 --> 0:54:15.080
<v Speaker 1>one more than one point five billion dollars, and I

0:54:15.080 --> 0:54:17.960
<v Speaker 1>think that shocked a lot of people. What we saw

0:54:18.320 --> 0:54:22.640
<v Speaker 1>was averaging down. Uh. Many of our loyal shareholders did

0:54:22.719 --> 0:54:25.680
<v Speaker 1>average down, and I think one of the reasons they

0:54:25.680 --> 0:54:30.120
<v Speaker 1>did is we were out there every step of the way,

0:54:30.440 --> 0:54:36.319
<v Speaker 1>giving away our research, reassuring our clients that actually innovation

0:54:36.400 --> 0:54:40.320
<v Speaker 1>solves problems. And we have so many problems now created

0:54:40.320 --> 0:54:43.880
<v Speaker 1>by supply chain problems, the war created by the FED,

0:54:44.520 --> 0:54:48.480
<v Speaker 1>and the demand destruction which is hurting margins, which technology

0:54:48.520 --> 0:54:51.800
<v Speaker 1>will solve in terms of increasing productivity. And I think

0:54:52.480 --> 0:54:57.080
<v Speaker 1>because we are so prolific in in our research, our

0:54:57.120 --> 0:55:01.880
<v Speaker 1>analysts are amazing in terms of the kind of original

0:55:01.920 --> 0:55:05.560
<v Speaker 1>research they're doing, so our clients and others are reading

0:55:05.640 --> 0:55:08.280
<v Speaker 1>research from us that they're not seeing from anyone else

0:55:08.440 --> 0:55:10.520
<v Speaker 1>or anyone at all. And I wouldn't get even out

0:55:11.080 --> 0:55:12.279
<v Speaker 1>And I want to get into that in a moment,

0:55:12.280 --> 0:55:14.040
<v Speaker 1>because I do love it, Cathy, like you've got over

0:55:14.040 --> 0:55:16.600
<v Speaker 1>a hundred fifty pages and your big ideas for for

0:55:16.680 --> 0:55:18.239
<v Speaker 1>this year, and it's a lot of things that we

0:55:18.320 --> 0:55:20.560
<v Speaker 1>talk about. What I do want to ask you though,

0:55:20.640 --> 0:55:24.000
<v Speaker 1>after a sixty percent drop in our innovation the e

0:55:24.040 --> 0:55:25.680
<v Speaker 1>t F last year, and I know it was a

0:55:25.680 --> 0:55:28.960
<v Speaker 1>tough year for form many assets, do you find any

0:55:28.960 --> 0:55:31.560
<v Speaker 1>of your investors kind of treating ARC a little bit,

0:55:31.760 --> 0:55:36.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, more cautiously. I think one thing that happened

0:55:37.040 --> 0:55:40.440
<v Speaker 1>last year is we were able with a number of papers.

0:55:40.520 --> 0:55:43.799
<v Speaker 1>We were uh we called it our ground war. We

0:55:43.800 --> 0:55:50.040
<v Speaker 1>were trying to help investors and advisors understand that, UM,

0:55:50.080 --> 0:55:53.919
<v Speaker 1>if you take a look at truly disruptive innovation, which

0:55:53.960 --> 0:55:57.040
<v Speaker 1>is all we do UM, and you look at other

0:55:57.440 --> 0:56:02.320
<v Speaker 1>growth portfolios, large cap growth, uh, you know growth generally,

0:56:03.040 --> 0:56:06.799
<v Speaker 1>as well as the major benchmarks like the NASDACK, you

0:56:06.840 --> 0:56:11.120
<v Speaker 1>won't find much truly disruptive innovation in them. And so

0:56:11.400 --> 0:56:14.600
<v Speaker 1>as we were getting hit so badly, what we also

0:56:14.800 --> 0:56:20.320
<v Speaker 1>saw is investors taking tax losses and some of NASTAC

0:56:20.360 --> 0:56:24.680
<v Speaker 1>and other strategies and moving into our strategy, which was

0:56:24.800 --> 0:56:28.799
<v Speaker 1>hit so hard because they did believe that we were

0:56:28.800 --> 0:56:32.440
<v Speaker 1>going to rebound faster. We were the hit hit the hardest.

0:56:32.880 --> 0:56:38.280
<v Speaker 1>Our research would suggest that that the two hundred trillion

0:56:38.360 --> 0:56:43.959
<v Speaker 1>dollars that we expect by twenty thirty to be the

0:56:44.040 --> 0:56:48.400
<v Speaker 1>market valuation pleased on disruptive innovation, that that had changed,

0:56:48.719 --> 0:56:52.160
<v Speaker 1>that that hadn't changed. And so if you have a

0:56:52.239 --> 0:56:55.920
<v Speaker 1>five year investment time horizon, yes, you move into our

0:56:55.960 --> 0:56:58.480
<v Speaker 1>strategy and oh, by the way, we are the new NASTAC,

0:56:58.600 --> 0:57:02.080
<v Speaker 1>which is one of the ways we are trying to convey. Look,

0:57:02.480 --> 0:57:06.200
<v Speaker 1>if you want to look at the future and truly

0:57:06.280 --> 0:57:11.120
<v Speaker 1>disruptive innovation the way the Nasdaq, the NASDAC performed in

0:57:11.239 --> 0:57:15.120
<v Speaker 1>the eighties and nineties. That's where we went avation. Okay,

0:57:15.640 --> 0:57:19.560
<v Speaker 1>look through that now you will not find the kind

0:57:19.560 --> 0:57:24.440
<v Speaker 1>of disruptive innovation. It certainly doesn't dominate those indexes. Maybe them.

0:57:24.440 --> 0:57:27.680
<v Speaker 1>Well that's true. That's the perfect segue, Kathy to gets

0:57:27.680 --> 0:57:29.560
<v Speaker 1>you to weigh in on what we look for from

0:57:29.680 --> 0:57:33.760
<v Speaker 1>the companies that are reporting this afternoon. Companies like Apple, Alphabet, Amazon,

0:57:34.040 --> 0:57:36.800
<v Speaker 1>These are not companies that you necessarily are betting on.

0:57:37.000 --> 0:57:40.439
<v Speaker 1>These are companies that you think can be disrupted. What

0:57:40.560 --> 0:57:43.000
<v Speaker 1>do you watch for with them? What can they tell

0:57:43.080 --> 0:57:46.040
<v Speaker 1>us about how the economy is? And you know what

0:57:46.040 --> 0:57:50.040
<v Speaker 1>what arc should be looking at. Yes, well you know

0:57:50.080 --> 0:57:53.920
<v Speaker 1>when I say we don't own those in our flagship strategy,

0:57:54.000 --> 0:57:57.000
<v Speaker 1>we do own them in some of our more specialized strategies.

0:57:57.840 --> 0:58:02.960
<v Speaker 1>But these two are the companies have enjoyed incredible success.

0:58:03.440 --> 0:58:08.200
<v Speaker 1>They have created big, big markets, and to move up

0:58:08.240 --> 0:58:11.840
<v Speaker 1>tenfold a hundredfold from here is going to be difficult.

0:58:11.960 --> 0:58:14.440
<v Speaker 1>We're not saying they're not going to be successful, but

0:58:14.600 --> 0:58:18.240
<v Speaker 1>we are saying a few things. Take Amazon. Amazon is

0:58:18.240 --> 0:58:21.080
<v Speaker 1>not a social network. We have moved into a world

0:58:21.160 --> 0:58:25.600
<v Speaker 1>of social commerce, so we own Shopify. Shopify is supporting

0:58:25.800 --> 0:58:31.360
<v Speaker 1>Instagram and TikTok and others that have that that are

0:58:31.440 --> 0:58:38.200
<v Speaker 1>taking really social commerce and scaling it. Um and Amazon

0:58:38.320 --> 0:58:42.120
<v Speaker 1>will not become a social network. It is not one.

0:58:42.560 --> 0:58:47.680
<v Speaker 1>It's a good online uh retailer um and I would

0:58:47.720 --> 0:58:51.000
<v Speaker 1>put it in a more mature category of online retail.

0:58:51.120 --> 0:58:54.080
<v Speaker 1>That's not what we do. If you look at Google

0:58:54.200 --> 0:58:59.600
<v Speaker 1>or alphabet UM, everyone's talking about chat GPT, and we

0:58:59.760 --> 0:59:03.400
<v Speaker 1>do believe that it is going to put search at risk.

0:59:03.520 --> 0:59:08.960
<v Speaker 1>Search is of Google's revenues. Now. We also believe, however,

0:59:09.520 --> 0:59:14.440
<v Speaker 1>that the Google is going to harness AI as well.

0:59:14.480 --> 0:59:16.800
<v Speaker 1>I mean it has it owns deep mind. It is

0:59:16.840 --> 0:59:19.480
<v Speaker 1>one of the best AI companies in the world, but

0:59:19.560 --> 0:59:22.200
<v Speaker 1>I think it has been so caught up in fears

0:59:22.280 --> 0:59:28.800
<v Speaker 1>about legal liability associated with the dangers created by about

0:59:28.840 --> 0:59:33.240
<v Speaker 1>Microsoft and Microsoft's big investment chat GPT. Do they have

0:59:33.320 --> 0:59:35.840
<v Speaker 1>the potential to overtake Google when it comes to search

0:59:36.200 --> 0:59:40.280
<v Speaker 1>because of the way they are harnessing AI. I I

0:59:40.320 --> 0:59:44.080
<v Speaker 1>think that's the big threat. I think that's why Sundar

0:59:44.240 --> 0:59:48.160
<v Speaker 1>went to code read at at at Google. I think

0:59:48.200 --> 0:59:52.280
<v Speaker 1>they're going to become very aggressive. So yes, yes, we

0:59:52.400 --> 0:59:57.000
<v Speaker 1>absolutely are are focused on what open AI and Microsoft

0:59:57.080 --> 0:59:59.680
<v Speaker 1>are going to do together. Kathy. You know one thing

0:59:59.800 --> 1:00:01.960
<v Speaker 1>is and you know for our TV and our streaming

1:00:01.960 --> 1:00:04.080
<v Speaker 1>service and YouTube, we've got you know, the share prices

1:00:04.120 --> 1:00:07.640
<v Speaker 1>of Apple, Amazon, Meta and Alphabet up there. I mean

1:00:07.680 --> 1:00:10.040
<v Speaker 1>you're looking at Meta up more than and it was

1:00:10.120 --> 1:00:13.840
<v Speaker 1>higher at its best levels of the session. I do

1:00:13.960 --> 1:00:15.960
<v Speaker 1>like how you think about innovation and things that are

1:00:15.960 --> 1:00:19.800
<v Speaker 1>gonna be impacting us in years to come. Is the metaverse? Uh,

1:00:20.040 --> 1:00:22.960
<v Speaker 1>something that you guys think about that this is an

1:00:22.960 --> 1:00:30.200
<v Speaker 1>important trend or tvd well. Yeah, in Japan we subadvise

1:00:30.280 --> 1:00:34.520
<v Speaker 1>a fund for Nico Asset Management UM called the Metaverse.

1:00:34.560 --> 1:00:38.800
<v Speaker 1>So yes, we are in the very early days of

1:00:38.920 --> 1:00:43.280
<v Speaker 1>what will become very immersive digital experiences. In fact, we

1:00:43.360 --> 1:00:48.920
<v Speaker 1>believe that more than half of our spending will end

1:00:49.000 --> 1:00:56.400
<v Speaker 1>up online as opposed to UH through physical stores. UH.

1:00:56.440 --> 1:00:59.400
<v Speaker 1>And and that's part of our big ideas this year.

1:00:59.760 --> 1:01:04.880
<v Speaker 1>Are Our team UH, led by Frank Downing and Nick Bruce,

1:01:05.160 --> 1:01:10.320
<v Speaker 1>have done a terrific job Andrew as well, pulling together

1:01:10.440 --> 1:01:13.240
<v Speaker 1>how this new world is going to work. So absolutely

1:01:13.280 --> 1:01:16.520
<v Speaker 1>we do. I think what happened with Meta last night

1:01:16.560 --> 1:01:19.880
<v Speaker 1>I listened to the call was fascinating. I think what's

1:01:19.920 --> 1:01:24.400
<v Speaker 1>happening is uh, Meta has an answer to TikTok It's

1:01:24.480 --> 1:01:29.120
<v Speaker 1>reels and Reels is taking off. They're also extremely focused

1:01:29.200 --> 1:01:36.320
<v Speaker 1>on using artificial intelligence as they are activating this platform.

1:01:36.400 --> 1:01:41.840
<v Speaker 1>And What's App is also uh a very important platform

1:01:41.880 --> 1:01:44.920
<v Speaker 1>that they have not monetized and now they're activating it.

1:01:45.200 --> 1:01:49.640
<v Speaker 1>UH so really really fascinating. And you know, just to

1:01:49.640 --> 1:01:52.600
<v Speaker 1>give you a sense, Delta is working through What's App

1:01:52.840 --> 1:01:57.360
<v Speaker 1>right now to inform passengers when something goes wrong UH

1:01:57.400 --> 1:02:02.480
<v Speaker 1>and improving customer service dramatically. So you know this this

1:02:02.640 --> 1:02:08.680
<v Speaker 1>could become a very big business use case. So yes,

1:02:09.000 --> 1:02:12.040
<v Speaker 1>lots of big markets that Facebook. The other thing that

1:02:12.120 --> 1:02:16.560
<v Speaker 1>Mark did was used the word efficiency. He must have

1:02:16.680 --> 1:02:24.439
<v Speaker 1>used times and and and and in that in that vein,

1:02:24.520 --> 1:02:30.320
<v Speaker 1>he was using artificial intelligence as well. Because as we

1:02:30.640 --> 1:02:33.920
<v Speaker 1>in big ideas UH and you can find big ideas

1:02:34.000 --> 1:02:37.880
<v Speaker 1>on our dash invest dot com um in Big Ideas,

1:02:37.960 --> 1:02:43.120
<v Speaker 1>we show the productivity increases that are possible because of

1:02:43.280 --> 1:02:46.720
<v Speaker 1>artificial intelligence. It's these companies who could be some of

1:02:46.720 --> 1:02:51.640
<v Speaker 1>the biggest beneficiaries if they harness AI correctly. I think

1:02:51.680 --> 1:02:53.720
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people are looking for the killer app

1:02:53.840 --> 1:02:58.120
<v Speaker 1>like they look like these viral apps that the Internet delivered.

1:02:58.480 --> 1:03:03.240
<v Speaker 1>The killer app for artificial intelligence is productivity games, and

1:03:03.320 --> 1:03:07.680
<v Speaker 1>any company does not harness it is probably not going

1:03:07.720 --> 1:03:09.560
<v Speaker 1>to be one of the big winners out there. And

1:03:09.680 --> 1:03:12.400
<v Speaker 1>just one other thing on AI. I think a lot

1:03:12.440 --> 1:03:16.240
<v Speaker 1>of a lot of the hype is in companies that

1:03:16.320 --> 1:03:22.360
<v Speaker 1>have AI in their names. We talk, you know, the

1:03:22.440 --> 1:03:26.320
<v Speaker 1>real winners here are going to be those companies that

1:03:26.360 --> 1:03:30.040
<v Speaker 1>have proprietary data and have lots of it, have the

1:03:30.080 --> 1:03:34.320
<v Speaker 1>best domain expertise, best AI expertise, the best pools of

1:03:34.400 --> 1:03:39.120
<v Speaker 1>high quality data. Two basically create new businesses in your

1:03:39.120 --> 1:03:42.840
<v Speaker 1>big ideas paper you again speaking of of big ideas.

1:03:42.840 --> 1:03:44.880
<v Speaker 1>And I love when we talk about this because everybody

1:03:44.880 --> 1:03:47.960
<v Speaker 1>on Twitter has a comment. But you stick to your

1:03:48.080 --> 1:03:51.720
<v Speaker 1>million dollar bitcoin forecast despite what we saw I think

1:03:51.720 --> 1:03:56.560
<v Speaker 1>about six drop in it last year. Um people are

1:03:56.560 --> 1:03:58.760
<v Speaker 1>saying to me, really, does she really stick to this?

1:03:59.040 --> 1:04:04.760
<v Speaker 1>Why the confident in that despite everything? Well, the confidence

1:04:05.320 --> 1:04:10.280
<v Speaker 1>actually was strengthened last year. Now, last year was was

1:04:11.040 --> 1:04:14.680
<v Speaker 1>a terrible year for everything crypto, But if you think

1:04:14.720 --> 1:04:21.960
<v Speaker 1>about what happened, it was the centralized opaque players who

1:04:22.000 --> 1:04:26.960
<v Speaker 1>went bankrupt. F t x Celsius, three hours Capital, Um

1:04:27.200 --> 1:04:31.480
<v Speaker 1>and and what did we see from bitcoin? Bitcoin is

1:04:31.520 --> 1:04:37.800
<v Speaker 1>completely decentralized and transparent. It started because of oh eight

1:04:37.800 --> 1:04:42.360
<v Speaker 1>oh nine, the lack of transparency in the traditional financial

1:04:42.440 --> 1:04:47.200
<v Speaker 1>services ecosystem. And I remember when we did our research

1:04:47.680 --> 1:04:50.800
<v Speaker 1>and Art Laugher I mentioned him. I mentioned him the

1:04:50.840 --> 1:04:54.560
<v Speaker 1>first was on your show. Um, he took us through

1:04:55.480 --> 1:04:58.439
<v Speaker 1>what bitcoin meant to him and it was wow, Art,

1:04:59.480 --> 1:05:05.240
<v Speaker 1>the this is a rules based monetary it's a rules

1:05:05.280 --> 1:05:10.400
<v Speaker 1>based digital monetary system, and it's global and and there's

1:05:10.680 --> 1:05:16.680
<v Speaker 1>no human intervention. Uh, it's very disciplined. It's mathematically metered

1:05:17.000 --> 1:05:20.400
<v Speaker 1>to top out at twenty one million units. Well in

1:05:20.480 --> 1:05:23.320
<v Speaker 1>the last year, the response to the last three years,

1:05:23.320 --> 1:05:28.120
<v Speaker 1>the responses to COVID that the fiscal and monetary responses

1:05:28.720 --> 1:05:32.640
<v Speaker 1>that you know in many countries are causing hyper inflation

1:05:33.280 --> 1:05:37.800
<v Speaker 1>and you know fiscal crises. We're seeing protests and riots

1:05:37.800 --> 1:05:41.560
<v Speaker 1>all over the place. Um, well, where do these people

1:05:41.680 --> 1:05:45.320
<v Speaker 1>go for an insurance policy against an implosion in their

1:05:45.360 --> 1:05:49.800
<v Speaker 1>purchasing power and wealth. It is in something like bitcoin.

1:05:49.920 --> 1:05:53.440
<v Speaker 1>Bitcoin is an insurance policy, and it is an insurance

1:05:53.440 --> 1:05:58.120
<v Speaker 1>policy for the for for everyone, against confiscation of wealth. Uh.

1:05:58.960 --> 1:06:01.440
<v Speaker 1>So you're nice tempering any of your thoughts even with

1:06:01.440 --> 1:06:03.640
<v Speaker 1>what happened last year, and and if anything, you're kind

1:06:03.640 --> 1:06:05.920
<v Speaker 1>of doubling down on your conviction because of what happened

1:06:06.000 --> 1:06:10.320
<v Speaker 1>last year. Is that fair? Yeah? We did. We tempered

1:06:10.400 --> 1:06:15.000
<v Speaker 1>a few assumptions we thought, led by Tesla and block

1:06:15.200 --> 1:06:21.040
<v Speaker 1>formally Square and micro Strategy, that more corporations would put

1:06:21.120 --> 1:06:24.800
<v Speaker 1>coin on their balance sheets. That is that we've dialed

1:06:24.920 --> 1:06:28.400
<v Speaker 1>that one down considerably. And the same thing with nation

1:06:28.520 --> 1:06:32.440
<v Speaker 1>states uh, El Salvador as they're sticking to their guns

1:06:32.480 --> 1:06:37.000
<v Speaker 1>on this one, UH and UH and actually are doubling down.

1:06:37.400 --> 1:06:41.600
<v Speaker 1>I believe in terms of bond issuance backed by bitcoin um,

1:06:42.400 --> 1:06:46.680
<v Speaker 1>but other countries will probably not move as quickly as

1:06:46.760 --> 1:06:50.560
<v Speaker 1>they might have if El Salvador had had, you know,

1:06:50.760 --> 1:06:53.840
<v Speaker 1>a grand swish right off the bat. We do think

1:06:53.840 --> 1:06:56.640
<v Speaker 1>it will happen, it's just we've pushed it out a bit.

1:06:56.760 --> 1:07:01.480
<v Speaker 1>So I think our base case going now is UH,

1:07:01.600 --> 1:07:05.800
<v Speaker 1>in five years, I think roughly six and seventy thousand,

1:07:05.920 --> 1:07:10.880
<v Speaker 1>something like that, and then in by t as as

1:07:10.920 --> 1:07:15.440
<v Speaker 1>we see more use cases and more of these insurance

1:07:15.440 --> 1:07:20.439
<v Speaker 1>policies taken out against they still and policy regimes are

1:07:20.520 --> 1:07:24.400
<v Speaker 1>not healthy, we think it could pass a million dollars, Kathy,

1:07:24.400 --> 1:07:25.640
<v Speaker 1>we don't have a ton of time, and I want

1:07:25.640 --> 1:07:26.840
<v Speaker 1>to make sure to get to a few more of

1:07:26.880 --> 1:07:29.880
<v Speaker 1>your big ideas in your research. For three we've talked

1:07:29.880 --> 1:07:32.840
<v Speaker 1>about AI, We've talked about cryptom we've talked a little

1:07:32.840 --> 1:07:35.920
<v Speaker 1>bit about batteries in Tesla. UH. In the last thirty

1:07:35.960 --> 1:07:37.640
<v Speaker 1>seconds or just the last couple of minutes that we

1:07:37.680 --> 1:07:40.720
<v Speaker 1>have with you, let's talk about a few more specifically robotics.

1:07:40.800 --> 1:07:42.840
<v Speaker 1>What what's appealing to and what's exciting to you. What

1:07:42.880 --> 1:07:46.560
<v Speaker 1>do you see as investment opportunities for robotics. Well, I

1:07:46.600 --> 1:07:49.400
<v Speaker 1>think everyone thinks robots have been around forever, and they

1:07:49.480 --> 1:07:52.080
<v Speaker 1>kind of have, but they've been locked in cages inside

1:07:52.400 --> 1:07:57.200
<v Speaker 1>auto companies. And so what we have now is really

1:07:57.240 --> 1:08:00.440
<v Speaker 1>the dawn of the age of robotics. It's really going

1:08:00.480 --> 1:08:06.000
<v Speaker 1>to happen because of battery technology and artificial intelligence, and

1:08:06.040 --> 1:08:10.480
<v Speaker 1>we're talking about industrial robots. Amazon is adding one thousand

1:08:10.600 --> 1:08:14.840
<v Speaker 1>robots per day UH, and by the year we think

1:08:14.880 --> 1:08:17.799
<v Speaker 1>they will have that Amazon will have more robots than people.

1:08:18.880 --> 1:08:23.120
<v Speaker 1>Even though they will continue to increase their employment UH, roles,

1:08:23.800 --> 1:08:28.120
<v Speaker 1>robots will increase faster. Why is this happening? Well, as

1:08:28.160 --> 1:08:32.799
<v Speaker 1>always with technology. The technology is ready and even more important,

1:08:32.840 --> 1:08:37.320
<v Speaker 1>the costs are low enough now and the technology really

1:08:37.479 --> 1:08:43.240
<v Speaker 1>AI battery technology critically important. Uh. And the costs if

1:08:43.280 --> 1:08:47.200
<v Speaker 1>we use rights law for every cumulative doubling in the

1:08:47.320 --> 1:08:54.360
<v Speaker 1>number of industrial robots produced, costs will decline by FI.

1:08:54.600 --> 1:08:57.960
<v Speaker 1>I think it's even more than that. Given the massive

1:08:58.080 --> 1:09:01.599
<v Speaker 1>labor shortages that have been exposed, and we still have

1:09:01.720 --> 1:09:04.360
<v Speaker 1>around the world, some of its demographics, some of its

1:09:04.400 --> 1:09:09.400
<v Speaker 1>COVID related um, the aftershocks, we think the time is

1:09:09.600 --> 1:09:13.240
<v Speaker 1>right for robotics now. So uh. And you know, Tesla

1:09:13.520 --> 1:09:18.040
<v Speaker 1>is a robotics company autonomous vehicles, which is where we're going. Uh.

1:09:18.080 --> 1:09:21.360
<v Speaker 1>Those are butts, those are robots. So we think we're

1:09:21.400 --> 1:09:24.599
<v Speaker 1>going to see a lot of robots rolling around, flying

1:09:24.600 --> 1:09:27.040
<v Speaker 1>in the air, drones and so forth, so, you know,

1:09:27.160 --> 1:09:29.160
<v Speaker 1>and collapsing the cost of that. I don't know if

1:09:29.160 --> 1:09:30.760
<v Speaker 1>that's so great for me. I don't know, Carol, I'll

1:09:30.760 --> 1:09:33.000
<v Speaker 1>take it. I'll take a robots if you've got some

1:09:33.080 --> 1:09:35.680
<v Speaker 1>new money to commit. What's the name you buy? Is

1:09:35.720 --> 1:09:38.800
<v Speaker 1>it Tesla? Right now? Well, Tesla is the number one

1:09:38.800 --> 1:09:42.760
<v Speaker 1>position in two of our air KK and air k Q,

1:09:42.960 --> 1:09:46.800
<v Speaker 1>and we even have it in air k W because

1:09:47.280 --> 1:09:51.720
<v Speaker 1>it is probably the best case of a convergence between

1:09:51.760 --> 1:09:58.840
<v Speaker 1>and among the most uh massive innovation opportunities of our lifetimes. Robotics.

1:09:58.920 --> 1:10:02.759
<v Speaker 1>Autonomous vehicles are robots, energy storage, they will be electric

1:10:03.040 --> 1:10:06.599
<v Speaker 1>and artificial intelligence. They'll be powered by AI. So that's

1:10:06.800 --> 1:10:10.360
<v Speaker 1>one S curve feeding ANOTHERS curve feeding another. Skert going

1:10:10.439 --> 1:10:11.800
<v Speaker 1>to leave it there. I feel like we go around

1:10:11.840 --> 1:10:14.400
<v Speaker 1>the world with you, Kathy, and so appreciated. Kathy would.

1:10:14.439 --> 1:10:16.840
<v Speaker 1>She's the CEO, she's the founder, She's the ce IO

1:10:16.920 --> 1:10:21.919
<v Speaker 1>of ARC Investment. Check out her big idea fifty three pages.

1:10:22.360 --> 1:10:24.920
<v Speaker 1>You can find it outline at ark Infested. Kathy, thank

1:10:24.960 --> 1:10:28.240
<v Speaker 1>you so much. You're listening to the Bloomberg Business Week

1:10:28.280 --> 1:10:31.920
<v Speaker 1>podcast just live weekdays from two to five pm Easter

1:10:32.160 --> 1:10:35.559
<v Speaker 1>on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Business app band you too.

1:10:35.760 --> 1:10:38.880
<v Speaker 1>You can also listen live to our flagship New York station,

1:10:39.280 --> 1:10:43.760
<v Speaker 1>Just Say Alexa, play Bloomberg, e Love and Verdi. Well

1:10:43.800 --> 1:10:46.240
<v Speaker 1>as you know, or if you didn't, here's your reminder,

1:10:46.320 --> 1:10:49.639
<v Speaker 1>so mark your calendars. The Grammys are back this upcoming weekend.

1:10:49.720 --> 1:10:51.799
<v Speaker 1>Harry Styles, by the way, just added to the lineup.

1:10:51.800 --> 1:10:54.680
<v Speaker 1>It came out the football games. That's pretty cool. I

1:10:54.720 --> 1:10:58.280
<v Speaker 1>really like Harry Styles. Um so that is an addition

1:10:58.520 --> 1:11:00.519
<v Speaker 1>the award show, of course put on an overseen by

1:11:00.520 --> 1:11:02.600
<v Speaker 1>the Recording Academy. Yeah, we've got the current CEO of

1:11:02.640 --> 1:11:05.519
<v Speaker 1>the Academy right now with us. He's a record producer,

1:11:05.680 --> 1:11:08.960
<v Speaker 1>a songwriter and more. Born into a musical family. It's

1:11:08.960 --> 1:11:10.880
<v Speaker 1>been a while since we've spoken, but very pleased to

1:11:10.880 --> 1:11:13.360
<v Speaker 1>have back with us. Carol Harvey Mason, CEO of the

1:11:13.360 --> 1:11:16.719
<v Speaker 1>Recording Academy with us via zoom from Los Angeles. Harvey,

1:11:16.920 --> 1:11:18.599
<v Speaker 1>so good to have you back with us. Last time

1:11:18.600 --> 1:11:21.080
<v Speaker 1>I think we talked to us the summer of one.

1:11:21.120 --> 1:11:25.120
<v Speaker 1>A lot has happened. Tell us about your world since then. Well,

1:11:25.240 --> 1:11:26.680
<v Speaker 1>thank you, Carol and Tim. Good to be here. I

1:11:26.680 --> 1:11:29.720
<v Speaker 1>appreciate it. It has been a whirlwind for sure. It's

1:11:29.720 --> 1:11:31.639
<v Speaker 1>been a crazy two or three years, as it has

1:11:31.680 --> 1:11:34.240
<v Speaker 1>for everyone. So I guess it's nothing unique for us.

1:11:34.280 --> 1:11:36.679
<v Speaker 1>But we're really excited to be back in l a

1:11:36.880 --> 1:11:39.920
<v Speaker 1>Crypto dot Com arena February five. Got an amazing show

1:11:40.360 --> 1:11:44.200
<v Speaker 1>coming together around music and can celebrate the year in excellence.

1:11:45.120 --> 1:11:47.200
<v Speaker 1>So when you talk about the year and excellence, I

1:11:47.200 --> 1:11:50.280
<v Speaker 1>always think about, you know, who's going to be there.

1:11:50.600 --> 1:11:52.479
<v Speaker 1>How you can watch it? Let's start there, because we

1:11:52.560 --> 1:11:55.160
<v Speaker 1>are kind of obsessed with how you can watch things

1:11:55.200 --> 1:11:58.639
<v Speaker 1>so differently. Um, you can stream it on Grammy dot com.

1:11:58.760 --> 1:12:00.960
<v Speaker 1>You can go to the recording account, me's YouTube channel.

1:12:01.200 --> 1:12:03.360
<v Speaker 1>How is it that most people still watch this show?

1:12:03.400 --> 1:12:06.160
<v Speaker 1>I know I sometimes watch it live. Sometimes I you know,

1:12:06.280 --> 1:12:08.599
<v Speaker 1>are checking out clips the next day. How is it

1:12:08.640 --> 1:12:10.599
<v Speaker 1>that a lot of people are consuming it? First of all,

1:12:11.200 --> 1:12:13.200
<v Speaker 1>I think it's a combination of all the things you mentioned.

1:12:13.200 --> 1:12:15.280
<v Speaker 1>Some people are watching on CBS, some people are going

1:12:15.360 --> 1:12:17.840
<v Speaker 1>on the streaming services, some people are watching online. I

1:12:17.840 --> 1:12:20.799
<v Speaker 1>think it's a multi screen experience now. But we're seeing

1:12:20.880 --> 1:12:25.160
<v Speaker 1>more and more people gravitating towards music content and specifically

1:12:25.240 --> 1:12:27.599
<v Speaker 1>the Grammys. Whether that's as you said in bite sized

1:12:27.680 --> 1:12:30.280
<v Speaker 1>chunks were watching the three hours show. We still have

1:12:30.400 --> 1:12:32.120
<v Speaker 1>work to do to figure out how can we meet

1:12:32.240 --> 1:12:35.120
<v Speaker 1>viewers and consumers where they are. But I'm excited about

1:12:35.120 --> 1:12:37.719
<v Speaker 1>the appetite and the desire for people to want to

1:12:37.760 --> 1:12:41.439
<v Speaker 1>watch great music, great art, great performances. That's what excites

1:12:41.479 --> 1:12:43.559
<v Speaker 1>me about Grammys and about Sunday. Well, how do you

1:12:43.600 --> 1:12:46.000
<v Speaker 1>make this work from a rights perspective? Harvey. If if

1:12:46.000 --> 1:12:48.479
<v Speaker 1>CBS has the broadcast rights to it, how can how

1:12:48.520 --> 1:12:50.280
<v Speaker 1>are you guys allowed to just put it on live

1:12:50.320 --> 1:12:53.880
<v Speaker 1>dot Grammy dot com or on the recording academies YouTube channel.

1:12:54.160 --> 1:12:57.840
<v Speaker 1>Is take us through the deal there, We're great negotiators.

1:12:57.840 --> 1:12:59.600
<v Speaker 1>I mean, this is I mean this is kind of

1:12:59.640 --> 1:13:02.519
<v Speaker 1>you don't see this because because companies, you know, a

1:13:02.520 --> 1:13:06.479
<v Speaker 1>company like CBS wants to recoup its investment and sell

1:13:06.560 --> 1:13:10.400
<v Speaker 1>ads against the content. Well, CBS has been an amazing partner,

1:13:10.560 --> 1:13:13.200
<v Speaker 1>and we only do things that we think will benefit

1:13:13.360 --> 1:13:16.640
<v Speaker 1>or raise awareness of the telecast and the property and

1:13:16.800 --> 1:13:19.880
<v Speaker 1>intellectual property that is the Grammys that are the Grammy.

1:13:19.960 --> 1:13:21.960
<v Speaker 1>So CBS has been in favor of a lot of

1:13:22.000 --> 1:13:24.160
<v Speaker 1>these things. They've been supportive and they are our partners.

1:13:24.320 --> 1:13:26.920
<v Speaker 1>But we also have to make sure we're thinking forward.

1:13:26.920 --> 1:13:28.920
<v Speaker 1>We're seeing around corners, what's going to be next? How

1:13:28.960 --> 1:13:30.960
<v Speaker 1>are people are gonna watch this show? It's in our

1:13:31.000 --> 1:13:32.960
<v Speaker 1>best interest to figure that out as well as CBS

1:13:33.080 --> 1:13:36.040
<v Speaker 1>is well. Speaking of partnering, which you talked about as

1:13:36.120 --> 1:13:38.879
<v Speaker 1>CBS being a great partner, you've got some great partners

1:13:38.880 --> 1:13:43.280
<v Speaker 1>and they read like a who's who of the corporate world. IBM, Google, Pixel, MasterCard,

1:13:43.320 --> 1:13:48.880
<v Speaker 1>Gray Goose, Amazon, United Airlines, Hilton Series exam Um. You know,

1:13:49.120 --> 1:13:52.400
<v Speaker 1>one of the things I do wonder about your platform,

1:13:52.600 --> 1:13:55.519
<v Speaker 1>and I feel like all the award shows, it's been

1:13:55.520 --> 1:13:59.400
<v Speaker 1>a place for artists to come out and be political

1:14:00.040 --> 1:14:02.599
<v Speaker 1>and talk about things, maybe rightfully so that are in

1:14:02.640 --> 1:14:05.400
<v Speaker 1>our world. How does that I don't know. How does

1:14:05.439 --> 1:14:08.080
<v Speaker 1>that impact who you end up partnering with, or does

1:14:08.080 --> 1:14:10.040
<v Speaker 1>it impact talk to us a little bit about that

1:14:10.160 --> 1:14:12.760
<v Speaker 1>when there's so many important things going on right now

1:14:13.439 --> 1:14:16.000
<v Speaker 1>that need to have attention brought to them. That's what

1:14:16.040 --> 1:14:18.400
<v Speaker 1>I was gonna say. I think our partners probably appreciate it.

1:14:18.560 --> 1:14:19.960
<v Speaker 1>I know they don't want to get in the weeds

1:14:20.000 --> 1:14:21.880
<v Speaker 1>of who's going to say what and what their beliefs are.

1:14:22.360 --> 1:14:25.559
<v Speaker 1>But we're not using music, and we're not using the

1:14:25.600 --> 1:14:27.960
<v Speaker 1>power of the Academy and the platform with the Grammys

1:14:28.720 --> 1:14:31.160
<v Speaker 1>for good or for change or for awareness, then we're

1:14:31.160 --> 1:14:34.719
<v Speaker 1>missing an opportunity. I think our partners understand that comes

1:14:34.760 --> 1:14:37.679
<v Speaker 1>with the creative community. We are a unique group of people.

1:14:37.760 --> 1:14:40.519
<v Speaker 1>We care deeply. We're very passionate about a lot of things,

1:14:40.520 --> 1:14:43.360
<v Speaker 1>including music, but also politics or race, relations with the

1:14:43.400 --> 1:14:45.840
<v Speaker 1>economy of the environment. So These are all things that

1:14:45.880 --> 1:14:48.960
<v Speaker 1>you're liable to see on a Grammy telecast. My hope

1:14:49.040 --> 1:14:53.080
<v Speaker 1>is that whether you believe in exactly everything everyone's saying

1:14:53.160 --> 1:14:55.920
<v Speaker 1>or not, you understand and you support and you believe

1:14:55.920 --> 1:14:58.720
<v Speaker 1>in the idea of using your platform for good and

1:14:58.760 --> 1:15:01.880
<v Speaker 1>for change. Can could you expand to on our marketing guys.

1:15:01.880 --> 1:15:03.800
<v Speaker 1>I will tell you that when our newsroom new you

1:15:03.920 --> 1:15:06.720
<v Speaker 1>were coming on, they're like, you know, a lot of

1:15:06.880 --> 1:15:10.360
<v Speaker 1>award show um can generate a lot of revenue through

1:15:10.360 --> 1:15:13.559
<v Speaker 1>these partnerships you've got, as we mentioned, uh, several well

1:15:13.600 --> 1:15:17.640
<v Speaker 1>known household names, Greg Goose Vodka, the official spirit of

1:15:17.680 --> 1:15:20.000
<v Speaker 1>the Grammy Awards. You know, talk to us a little

1:15:20.000 --> 1:15:22.400
<v Speaker 1>bit more about that and the other marketing deals that

1:15:22.439 --> 1:15:26.679
<v Speaker 1>you've got. We've got an amazing partnerships team. They've worked

1:15:26.720 --> 1:15:30.679
<v Speaker 1>really hard to partner and I guess join forces with

1:15:31.120 --> 1:15:33.960
<v Speaker 1>world class organizations. And we do a lot of work

1:15:34.000 --> 1:15:36.439
<v Speaker 1>to make sure that we're attracting and joining with the

1:15:36.520 --> 1:15:38.840
<v Speaker 1>right types of partners And it's not just about a

1:15:38.960 --> 1:15:41.200
<v Speaker 1>one day a year partnership. We like to think of

1:15:41.240 --> 1:15:45.200
<v Speaker 1>these partnerships and arrangements as annual or multi annual year deals.

1:15:45.280 --> 1:15:47.639
<v Speaker 1>We're doing so much throughout the year. It's not just

1:15:47.760 --> 1:15:50.120
<v Speaker 1>about the show. It's about the work through Music Cares

1:15:50.120 --> 1:15:52.200
<v Speaker 1>and giving back to music people. It's about our advocacy

1:15:52.200 --> 1:15:55.400
<v Speaker 1>and DC, our education, our preservation through the museum. These

1:15:55.439 --> 1:15:58.000
<v Speaker 1>are all things that our partners are involved in with us.

1:15:58.000 --> 1:16:01.320
<v Speaker 1>Our Black Music Collective and our HBC. You tour are

1:16:01.320 --> 1:16:06.639
<v Speaker 1>our sponsorships and our opportunities for incoming people into our industry.

1:16:06.680 --> 1:16:09.880
<v Speaker 1>These are things that our sponsors are really really excited

1:16:09.880 --> 1:16:13.040
<v Speaker 1>about and us providing more as I said, good and

1:16:13.120 --> 1:16:16.920
<v Speaker 1>positive outcomes for our community, for the culture, for the world. Well.

1:16:16.920 --> 1:16:19.759
<v Speaker 1>As people consume the content differently, these kinds of sponsorship

1:16:19.760 --> 1:16:22.679
<v Speaker 1>has become increasingly important because perhaps they're not necessarily tuning

1:16:22.720 --> 1:16:25.160
<v Speaker 1>in during the breaks and instead what they're doing is

1:16:25.160 --> 1:16:28.559
<v Speaker 1>they're watching clips or they're watching in in you know, live,

1:16:28.640 --> 1:16:31.120
<v Speaker 1>and then they'll put something else on during the breaks,

1:16:31.200 --> 1:16:33.639
<v Speaker 1>as many people do. Uh. So, give us an idea

1:16:33.680 --> 1:16:35.960
<v Speaker 1>harvey of of of the other types of partners that

1:16:36.000 --> 1:16:39.160
<v Speaker 1>you have that the way you integrate brands into the content,

1:16:39.320 --> 1:16:42.120
<v Speaker 1>and if you can, please just give us some numbers.

1:16:42.160 --> 1:16:44.360
<v Speaker 1>I mean we're Bloomberg, So I mean, how much are

1:16:44.400 --> 1:16:48.120
<v Speaker 1>these brands paying for this type of association. It really varies,

1:16:48.120 --> 1:16:50.280
<v Speaker 1>and I would hate to put everyone's business out on

1:16:50.280 --> 1:16:52.599
<v Speaker 1>the street, but I will say that it depends on

1:16:52.640 --> 1:16:55.280
<v Speaker 1>the level of activation. Some of it is hospitality. Sometimes

1:16:55.280 --> 1:16:57.960
<v Speaker 1>people want to come to our events and be in

1:16:58.000 --> 1:17:00.880
<v Speaker 1>the room with other great people and creators. Others want

1:17:00.920 --> 1:17:03.439
<v Speaker 1>to be featured across all the work that we're doing,

1:17:03.439 --> 1:17:05.200
<v Speaker 1>and as you touched on, we're finding new ways to

1:17:05.240 --> 1:17:07.519
<v Speaker 1>do it. We're a web three, metaverse other things, and

1:17:07.560 --> 1:17:09.439
<v Speaker 1>our partners are coming with us, so I think they're

1:17:09.479 --> 1:17:13.640
<v Speaker 1>seeing this as an opportunity to partner and collaborate with

1:17:13.680 --> 1:17:17.200
<v Speaker 1>an organization the Academy that is seeing into the future

1:17:17.200 --> 1:17:20.920
<v Speaker 1>and finding new ways to attract, attract eyeballs and attention.

1:17:21.200 --> 1:17:23.799
<v Speaker 1>I think we also drag with us a very unique

1:17:24.120 --> 1:17:27.800
<v Speaker 1>subset of fans, consumers, listeners, people that are not only

1:17:27.880 --> 1:17:30.040
<v Speaker 1>the most prolific creators in the world, but also people

1:17:30.080 --> 1:17:34.160
<v Speaker 1>who are crazy, intense, passionate lovers of art and culture.

1:17:34.240 --> 1:17:36.760
<v Speaker 1>And that's a very attractive group of people for advertisers

1:17:36.760 --> 1:17:38.600
<v Speaker 1>and partners to reach. Hey, just got a couple of

1:17:38.600 --> 1:17:40.960
<v Speaker 1>minutes left here, Harvey, And we didn't say in our

1:17:41.000 --> 1:17:43.240
<v Speaker 1>introduction to you that you brought into a musical family.

1:17:43.720 --> 1:17:46.559
<v Speaker 1>You've been a record producer, songwriter. You understand this business.

1:17:46.560 --> 1:17:49.519
<v Speaker 1>You've written for some some heavyweights and been involved with

1:17:49.560 --> 1:17:52.160
<v Speaker 1>some heavyweights in the industry. What do you make of

1:17:52.320 --> 1:17:54.960
<v Speaker 1>kind of the business of the music industry which increasingly

1:17:55.000 --> 1:17:58.200
<v Speaker 1>you have people like Taylor Swift and others really taking

1:17:58.240 --> 1:18:02.160
<v Speaker 1>control of their brand and their music. You've got a

1:18:02.200 --> 1:18:04.719
<v Speaker 1>lot of artists selling their brands, whether it's to private

1:18:04.720 --> 1:18:08.960
<v Speaker 1>equity and other investors. Um good or bad in your view,

1:18:10.479 --> 1:18:12.320
<v Speaker 1>that's a whole show. Care all. We should do another talk.

1:18:14.400 --> 1:18:17.439
<v Speaker 1>We would love to. I know it's not easy. It's

1:18:17.720 --> 1:18:20.720
<v Speaker 1>important to address because it's an evolution of where we

1:18:20.920 --> 1:18:23.160
<v Speaker 1>come from and where we're headed. It's never there's never

1:18:23.160 --> 1:18:25.519
<v Speaker 1>been a time like this. There's a hundred thousand songs

1:18:25.640 --> 1:18:28.920
<v Speaker 1>a day being uploaded to the streaming services, so that's

1:18:28.920 --> 1:18:31.840
<v Speaker 1>going to create different opportunities. We still believe that the

1:18:31.920 --> 1:18:34.720
<v Speaker 1>labels are valuable and important as partners to creators in

1:18:34.760 --> 1:18:37.360
<v Speaker 1>some instances, but I think independent artists are also going

1:18:37.400 --> 1:18:39.439
<v Speaker 1>to be able to reach their fans directly and put

1:18:39.520 --> 1:18:41.599
<v Speaker 1>music up. You make it on a Friday, it's available

1:18:41.600 --> 1:18:43.880
<v Speaker 1>Friday night for somebody to listen to and evaluate and

1:18:43.920 --> 1:18:45.840
<v Speaker 1>love and share. So I think there's a lot of

1:18:45.880 --> 1:18:49.240
<v Speaker 1>innovation and iteration that's happening around our industry. As you said,

1:18:49.280 --> 1:18:52.320
<v Speaker 1>people selling their catalogs. I'm not sure where that's going

1:18:52.360 --> 1:18:54.160
<v Speaker 1>to go because the prices are at a place where

1:18:54.520 --> 1:18:56.720
<v Speaker 1>I'm not sure everyone's figured out how to monetize it

1:18:56.760 --> 1:19:00.479
<v Speaker 1>to accommodate the high trading value of some of these catalogs.

1:19:00.680 --> 1:19:02.640
<v Speaker 1>But I do think what the Academy is doing is

1:19:02.680 --> 1:19:06.160
<v Speaker 1>really important because we're fighting for new legislation to protect

1:19:06.680 --> 1:19:10.680
<v Speaker 1>songwriters and creators and intellectual property and copyrights. So legislation

1:19:10.760 --> 1:19:12.919
<v Speaker 1>changes can increase the value of a lot of these catalogs.

1:19:12.960 --> 1:19:14.599
<v Speaker 1>All right, five seconds. Who you're looking forward to at

1:19:14.600 --> 1:19:17.840
<v Speaker 1>the Grammys. I'm looking forward to all the diversity, all

1:19:17.880 --> 1:19:20.240
<v Speaker 1>the different genres, all the different people all coming together

1:19:20.520 --> 1:19:23.000
<v Speaker 1>one room, February five. I love in the show is

1:19:23.040 --> 1:19:24.880
<v Speaker 1>a mixture of everything, because it really is fun to

1:19:24.880 --> 1:19:28.320
<v Speaker 1>watch Harvey come back soon please, Chief Executive Officer of

1:19:28.360 --> 1:19:31.040
<v Speaker 1>the Recording Academy. Of course, as you know, they oversee

1:19:31.200 --> 1:19:33.920
<v Speaker 1>the Grammys, and the's founder and c of Harvey Mason

1:19:33.960 --> 1:19:37.439
<v Speaker 1>Media via zoom from l A. This is Bloomberg you're

1:19:37.520 --> 1:19:41.080
<v Speaker 1>listening to the Bloomberg Business Week podcast. Catch us live

1:19:41.160 --> 1:19:44.519
<v Speaker 1>weekdays from two to five pm Eastern on Bloomberg Radio,

1:19:44.720 --> 1:19:47.960
<v Speaker 1>the Bloomberg Business Band. You too. You can also listen

1:19:48.080 --> 1:19:51.640
<v Speaker 1>live to our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa,

1:19:51.840 --> 1:19:56.280
<v Speaker 1>play Bloomberg e Loove and Dirty Full Transparency. Tim and

1:19:56.280 --> 1:19:58.880
<v Speaker 1>I both have Aora rings. Tim has his on. I don't.

1:19:59.080 --> 1:20:01.280
<v Speaker 1>I forgot to. Didn't take it off to do some chores.

1:20:01.320 --> 1:20:02.840
<v Speaker 1>You are supposed to take it off to take you know,

1:20:02.840 --> 1:20:05.080
<v Speaker 1>when you're doing dishes. I was doing something and following

1:20:05.120 --> 1:20:10.200
<v Speaker 1>the rules. It was kind of a rough night white

1:20:10.280 --> 1:20:12.880
<v Speaker 1>and I wasn't diving this time around, all right. As

1:20:12.920 --> 1:20:15.479
<v Speaker 1>you may know, it is a privately held company that

1:20:15.560 --> 1:20:18.040
<v Speaker 1>we follow a lot. The current issue Bloomberg business Week magazine,

1:20:18.080 --> 1:20:21.800
<v Speaker 1>the Pursuit section, it's one of the sleeptrackers profiled as

1:20:21.800 --> 1:20:23.439
<v Speaker 1>part of a deep dive into the business of sleep,

1:20:23.479 --> 1:20:25.680
<v Speaker 1>which we know Tim is big business, but we know

1:20:25.760 --> 1:20:27.680
<v Speaker 1>this ring does a lot more than that. It does.

1:20:27.880 --> 1:20:31.280
<v Speaker 1>Let's stark numbers here though. Um just last week last year,

1:20:31.320 --> 1:20:33.840
<v Speaker 1>the market for sleep tracking devices society at fourteen point

1:20:33.840 --> 1:20:37.680
<v Speaker 1>five billion. It's projected to reach sixty two billion by

1:20:37.720 --> 1:20:39.720
<v Speaker 1>the year. It's a lot of stuff, all right. So

1:20:39.760 --> 1:20:41.840
<v Speaker 1>let's get to our guest, Tom Hale. He was named

1:20:41.880 --> 1:20:44.599
<v Speaker 1>CEO of Order Ring last April. He was former chief

1:20:44.640 --> 1:20:47.520
<v Speaker 1>operating officer at Home Away. They were acquired by Expedia.

1:20:47.560 --> 1:20:50.559
<v Speaker 1>He's an alum to of Adobe Macromedia. He is in

1:20:50.640 --> 1:20:53.559
<v Speaker 1>our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio. Welcome, Welcome, Nice to have

1:20:53.640 --> 1:20:55.599
<v Speaker 1>you here. Thank you so much. It's great to be here.

1:20:55.800 --> 1:20:59.840
<v Speaker 1>So what's it been like? Wow, it's been incredible joy

1:21:00.080 --> 1:21:02.479
<v Speaker 1>to learn. I mean you think about sort of this

1:21:02.600 --> 1:21:08.720
<v Speaker 1>particular product being the intersection of health, physiology, physics, fashion. Right.

1:21:08.920 --> 1:21:10.960
<v Speaker 1>I never saw myself as a purveyor of jewel, right

1:21:11.000 --> 1:21:14.400
<v Speaker 1>now I am. And in technology you think about what's

1:21:14.400 --> 1:21:17.120
<v Speaker 1>going on in technology where you've got a I processing

1:21:17.200 --> 1:21:19.800
<v Speaker 1>huge amounts of data and the intersection between health and

1:21:19.840 --> 1:21:22.320
<v Speaker 1>technology is super interesting. So I've been climbing a huge

1:21:22.400 --> 1:21:24.560
<v Speaker 1>learning curve. But that's been incredibly thrilling. What have you

1:21:24.640 --> 1:21:26.840
<v Speaker 1>learned the most? Is it that the size of the market,

1:21:26.920 --> 1:21:28.800
<v Speaker 1>or the size of the interest or what you know?

1:21:28.920 --> 1:21:31.840
<v Speaker 1>I think it really is that there's a change underway

1:21:31.880 --> 1:21:33.920
<v Speaker 1>which is about how people are approaching health. I think

1:21:33.960 --> 1:21:36.439
<v Speaker 1>COVID kind of took the covers off. Everyone felt a

1:21:36.439 --> 1:21:38.400
<v Speaker 1>little bit secure about their health. And then COVID came

1:21:38.400 --> 1:21:41.000
<v Speaker 1>along and reminded everybody that health is fragile and you

1:21:41.080 --> 1:21:43.200
<v Speaker 1>need to monitor it and manage it. And everyone started

1:21:43.240 --> 1:21:46.479
<v Speaker 1>thinking about it very differently. And so that change, that's

1:21:46.520 --> 1:21:49.800
<v Speaker 1>a societal maybe even a global change, and in some sense,

1:21:49.840 --> 1:21:52.360
<v Speaker 1>health wearable steers right into it. Okay, So or a

1:21:52.360 --> 1:21:56.040
<v Speaker 1>monitor's health through the finger. It's a ring that you

1:21:56.080 --> 1:21:59.160
<v Speaker 1>wear on your finger at tracks sleep tracks activity throughout

1:21:59.160 --> 1:22:03.240
<v Speaker 1>the day. There a handful of sensors on it. Um.

1:22:03.280 --> 1:22:06.760
<v Speaker 1>I'm wondering about the technology that goes into the ring,

1:22:06.840 --> 1:22:09.559
<v Speaker 1>the hardware, but also what happens on the app and

1:22:09.640 --> 1:22:13.200
<v Speaker 1>sort of which one is. I don't know where you're investing. Well,

1:22:13.280 --> 1:22:15.240
<v Speaker 1>you have to invest in both, of course. I mean.

1:22:15.280 --> 1:22:18.160
<v Speaker 1>Being the only smart ring on the market, we've actually

1:22:18.160 --> 1:22:20.360
<v Speaker 1>got a lot of huge technical challenges that we have

1:22:20.439 --> 1:22:22.720
<v Speaker 1>to manage, right. We have to make sure that the

1:22:22.800 --> 1:22:25.160
<v Speaker 1>quality of the signal that we get is the highest

1:22:25.160 --> 1:22:28.960
<v Speaker 1>and most accurate that is possible. Frankly, we are medical grade,

1:22:29.000 --> 1:22:31.120
<v Speaker 1>you know, in terms of the accuracy of the of

1:22:31.240 --> 1:22:34.439
<v Speaker 1>the device itself. Partially that has to do with just

1:22:34.479 --> 1:22:36.759
<v Speaker 1>the location of where you are measuring on the human bodies.

1:22:36.800 --> 1:22:39.720
<v Speaker 1>You said, doctors measure your pulse and your heartbeat and

1:22:39.960 --> 1:22:41.920
<v Speaker 1>SPO two from the finger. They don't measure on the

1:22:41.920 --> 1:22:44.839
<v Speaker 1>outside of your risk. So we are just structurally advantaged

1:22:44.840 --> 1:22:46.920
<v Speaker 1>in terms of accuracy. Now that being said, where a

1:22:46.960 --> 1:22:51.080
<v Speaker 1>science driven organization, so we take that super super seriously.

1:22:51.400 --> 1:22:55.160
<v Speaker 1>We validate everything, not just across like some small population,

1:22:55.200 --> 1:22:59.000
<v Speaker 1>but across men, women, different ethnicities, different skin tones. A

1:22:59.040 --> 1:23:01.559
<v Speaker 1>lot of the technology that are is used for these

1:23:01.640 --> 1:23:04.840
<v Speaker 1>kinds of wearable sensors is light based. We shine lights

1:23:04.880 --> 1:23:06.880
<v Speaker 1>into your body and based on the signal that comes back,

1:23:06.920 --> 1:23:10.960
<v Speaker 1>the refraction, the absorption, we're making conclusions about your heart rate,

1:23:11.160 --> 1:23:13.960
<v Speaker 1>your respiration, your heart rate variability, these metrics that come

1:23:14.000 --> 1:23:17.360
<v Speaker 1>back to you. Guess what if you don't have the

1:23:17.400 --> 1:23:20.519
<v Speaker 1>same tone in terms of skin color, the melanin in

1:23:20.560 --> 1:23:22.920
<v Speaker 1>your skin absorbs that light differently, and so you have

1:23:23.000 --> 1:23:25.640
<v Speaker 1>to be really thoughtful about how you measure so accuracy,

1:23:26.040 --> 1:23:29.479
<v Speaker 1>the form factor. These are structural advantages and structural things

1:23:29.479 --> 1:23:31.799
<v Speaker 1>that we focus on around at or that's the hardware.

1:23:31.880 --> 1:23:36.439
<v Speaker 1>So how do you technologically account for a white person

1:23:36.640 --> 1:23:39.160
<v Speaker 1>versus a black person versus how do you do it well?

1:23:39.240 --> 1:23:42.280
<v Speaker 1>You have to make sure one we're lucky because we

1:23:42.320 --> 1:23:44.559
<v Speaker 1>measure on the inside of the palm, right, and the

1:23:44.600 --> 1:23:47.880
<v Speaker 1>inside of the palm generally actually is a lot narrower range.

1:23:47.960 --> 1:23:51.200
<v Speaker 1>Even people who have like sunburns or hair or tattoos

1:23:51.280 --> 1:23:53.439
<v Speaker 1>or darker skin on the outside, they tend not to

1:23:53.479 --> 1:23:56.479
<v Speaker 1>have sunburns or tattoos or hair on their palms. Maybe

1:23:56.479 --> 1:23:59.040
<v Speaker 1>some people do, but most don't, So that's actually a

1:23:59.080 --> 1:24:01.880
<v Speaker 1>structural advantage. But we do things like we monitor when

1:24:01.880 --> 1:24:03.680
<v Speaker 1>the light signal goes in what comes back, and we

1:24:03.720 --> 1:24:05.439
<v Speaker 1>start to learn a little bit about like do we

1:24:05.520 --> 1:24:07.559
<v Speaker 1>have to increase the amplitude to get a good signal?

1:24:07.640 --> 1:24:09.800
<v Speaker 1>Do we have to decrease the amplitude Because we're getting

1:24:09.800 --> 1:24:12.519
<v Speaker 1>to like we're we're very intelligent about that. In fact,

1:24:12.920 --> 1:24:15.240
<v Speaker 1>we did a one of our big features last year

1:24:15.320 --> 1:24:17.240
<v Speaker 1>was workout heart Right. You guys might have, I don't know,

1:24:17.400 --> 1:24:20.200
<v Speaker 1>experienced it. So it's basically different things that you can

1:24:20.240 --> 1:24:22.479
<v Speaker 1>use it for. It's super accurate in terms of like

1:24:22.560 --> 1:24:24.799
<v Speaker 1>measuring your heart rate during a workout. It's as accurate

1:24:24.800 --> 1:24:26.439
<v Speaker 1>as a chest strap, which is you know, kind of

1:24:26.439 --> 1:24:29.000
<v Speaker 1>the gold standard for measuring a hurry. All right, So

1:24:29.360 --> 1:24:32.439
<v Speaker 1>when we were testing it right before we shipped it,

1:24:32.479 --> 1:24:35.080
<v Speaker 1>people are like, you know what, we're we want to

1:24:35.080 --> 1:24:37.240
<v Speaker 1>make sure that we validated this across a wide range

1:24:37.280 --> 1:24:39.000
<v Speaker 1>of skin tones. And so we actually did a lot

1:24:39.000 --> 1:24:40.880
<v Speaker 1>of work to test on a wide range of skin

1:24:40.880 --> 1:24:42.400
<v Speaker 1>tones and we felt pretty good about it. We've made

1:24:42.400 --> 1:24:44.320
<v Speaker 1>some tweaks in terms of the power of the signal,

1:24:44.360 --> 1:24:46.000
<v Speaker 1>the light signal that we send into the body, but

1:24:46.040 --> 1:24:48.599
<v Speaker 1>that kind of scientific validation is the key. And that's

1:24:48.640 --> 1:24:51.680
<v Speaker 1>the hardware side. The software side, though, gets a lot

1:24:51.720 --> 1:24:53.320
<v Speaker 1>of updates. The app gets a lot of updates. And

1:24:53.320 --> 1:24:57.080
<v Speaker 1>the reason I ask is is because oftentimes with hardware,

1:24:57.320 --> 1:24:59.800
<v Speaker 1>you see a brand new version each year. If that,

1:25:00.439 --> 1:25:02.800
<v Speaker 1>if that this year, you didn't see a new version

1:25:02.840 --> 1:25:05.240
<v Speaker 1>of of a ring with different sensors. You saw a

1:25:05.240 --> 1:25:07.479
<v Speaker 1>different version in the you know, in a superficial sense.

1:25:07.479 --> 1:25:09.280
<v Speaker 1>And I use the term superficial not in a project

1:25:09.439 --> 1:25:12.400
<v Speaker 1>pejorative way, but you know, the idea that the sensors

1:25:12.479 --> 1:25:14.800
<v Speaker 1>inside didn't change. Correct me if I'm wrong, but that's correct.

1:25:14.840 --> 1:25:16.880
<v Speaker 1>The sensor platform is the same. By the way, we

1:25:16.920 --> 1:25:18.719
<v Speaker 1>have two versions of the ring, right, Yeah, the heritage

1:25:18.760 --> 1:25:20.920
<v Speaker 1>and the horizon. That's what you're talking about exactly. Um,

1:25:21.080 --> 1:25:23.680
<v Speaker 1>do you which sensors would you add right now if

1:25:23.680 --> 1:25:25.800
<v Speaker 1>you could? Or is it is it kind of like

1:25:26.000 --> 1:25:27.559
<v Speaker 1>where it needs to be and the work needs to

1:25:27.560 --> 1:25:29.639
<v Speaker 1>be done on the app side the analysis side, Well,

1:25:29.640 --> 1:25:33.719
<v Speaker 1>we're always looking at new technologies as as they're emerging

1:25:33.800 --> 1:25:35.920
<v Speaker 1>and new capabilities as they're emerging. You know a lot

1:25:35.920 --> 1:25:39.000
<v Speaker 1>of people have have have sort of hypothesized that there

1:25:39.040 --> 1:25:41.519
<v Speaker 1>are lots of things that you can do with new

1:25:41.560 --> 1:25:45.479
<v Speaker 1>sensor technology. Um, really, I think the reality is that

1:25:45.560 --> 1:25:48.320
<v Speaker 1>a lot of the ambitions here, like we can test

1:25:48.320 --> 1:25:52.320
<v Speaker 1>your blood glucose, you know, non invasively, are possible, but

1:25:52.439 --> 1:25:55.280
<v Speaker 1>definitely further away than most people are willing to admit.

1:25:55.320 --> 1:25:57.960
<v Speaker 1>Elizabeth Holmes could do No, she's she's all over. I

1:25:57.960 --> 1:26:00.920
<v Speaker 1>think that's her next process. I know that's I don't know,

1:26:02.240 --> 1:26:04.400
<v Speaker 1>but but but you you you know, the thing is

1:26:04.520 --> 1:26:06.759
<v Speaker 1>that you want to make sure those things are validated acurate.

1:26:06.880 --> 1:26:10.479
<v Speaker 1>The technology that goes into our ring today, some of

1:26:10.479 --> 1:26:12.600
<v Speaker 1>it's very very recent, very very new. Some of it

1:26:12.640 --> 1:26:14.720
<v Speaker 1>has been established, there's lots of science around it. So

1:26:14.800 --> 1:26:16.439
<v Speaker 1>the reality is, I don't know that we need to

1:26:16.439 --> 1:26:20.120
<v Speaker 1>see huge updates in it. I think what's what's really

1:26:20.160 --> 1:26:22.760
<v Speaker 1>important about the ring from it maybe different from your

1:26:23.040 --> 1:26:27.200
<v Speaker 1>your wrist, is that it's also comfortable and non battery consumptive.

1:26:27.240 --> 1:26:29.800
<v Speaker 1>I don't know if this has been your experience. Every

1:26:29.840 --> 1:26:31.400
<v Speaker 1>five days or so, I give it a charge and

1:26:32.320 --> 1:26:33.960
<v Speaker 1>you don't have to think about it. You just don't

1:26:34.000 --> 1:26:36.120
<v Speaker 1>have to think about it. It's just they're sort of

1:26:36.160 --> 1:26:39.000
<v Speaker 1>silently in the background keeping track your metrics. The data

1:26:39.040 --> 1:26:41.760
<v Speaker 1>is being processed, the algorithms are running, the recommendations and

1:26:41.800 --> 1:26:44.040
<v Speaker 1>insights are coming through. And that's the software, right. The

1:26:44.080 --> 1:26:47.000
<v Speaker 1>software is your health condition is different from your health condition.

1:26:47.120 --> 1:26:50.080
<v Speaker 1>Let's understand that and give you the appropriate message. That's personalization,

1:26:50.200 --> 1:26:53.200
<v Speaker 1>that's machine learning. That's that's very different. I think the

1:26:53.240 --> 1:26:57.160
<v Speaker 1>pace of software innovation incredibly rapid. Right we're releasing two

1:26:57.280 --> 1:27:00.799
<v Speaker 1>three features a month, because that's the pace of soft hardware.

1:27:01.000 --> 1:27:03.080
<v Speaker 1>You kind of wanted to be stable, because you don't

1:27:03.080 --> 1:27:05.200
<v Speaker 1>want to change it all the time. I agree, Um,

1:27:05.240 --> 1:27:08.720
<v Speaker 1>who is your typical consumer? Well, what would you guess?

1:27:08.760 --> 1:27:10.920
<v Speaker 1>What would you guess? Um, I'm thinking like a guy

1:27:11.200 --> 1:27:17.600
<v Speaker 1>in his thirties. Guy in his thirties. Kendall Roy from Succession.

1:27:18.120 --> 1:27:20.880
<v Speaker 1>Well yeah, or yeah, that was that was also yeah

1:27:21.000 --> 1:27:25.639
<v Speaker 1>the Billions where we can I just ask you before

1:27:25.680 --> 1:27:27.840
<v Speaker 1>we get into this series, what does that stuff do

1:27:27.920 --> 1:27:30.680
<v Speaker 1>for you? First of all, it's great recognition, but what

1:27:30.720 --> 1:27:34.400
<v Speaker 1>does it do the needle it? Well, you know, funnily enough,

1:27:34.439 --> 1:27:36.719
<v Speaker 1>when when it used to be airtime, it would actually

1:27:36.760 --> 1:27:38.519
<v Speaker 1>you can see it, but but it's not airtimes now

1:27:38.520 --> 1:27:41.600
<v Speaker 1>it's all streaming on demand, right, But I think it

1:27:41.720 --> 1:27:44.920
<v Speaker 1>just puts us in people's consideration. They now understand there

1:27:45.000 --> 1:27:47.040
<v Speaker 1>is a smart ring category and you can wear it

1:27:47.080 --> 1:27:49.679
<v Speaker 1>and if if you're like the cast member of Billions,

1:27:49.720 --> 1:27:51.759
<v Speaker 1>like maybe maybe you want to be a little careful.

1:27:52.280 --> 1:27:53.720
<v Speaker 1>That I was going to say is sometimes, you know,

1:27:53.800 --> 1:27:56.760
<v Speaker 1>sometimes it's worn by somebody who's not necessarily a fan favorite. Right,

1:27:57.240 --> 1:27:59.439
<v Speaker 1>You're not really sympathetic to Kendall Roy. That does that?

1:27:59.520 --> 1:28:01.960
<v Speaker 1>Does that? Bob? Are you h? No? Look? I mean

1:28:02.000 --> 1:28:04.439
<v Speaker 1>what do they say? No? Bad, no bad? Pr um?

1:28:04.560 --> 1:28:07.160
<v Speaker 1>You know? When what is it when the Mr Big

1:28:07.200 --> 1:28:10.639
<v Speaker 1>does he die on a Paltzon I can't remember spoiler?

1:28:10.920 --> 1:28:13.200
<v Speaker 1>Maybe that's maybe that's a bad example. Let's not go there.

1:28:13.439 --> 1:28:16.840
<v Speaker 1>It was not great Plotzon hasn't been doing that. Yeah,

1:28:17.400 --> 1:28:19.559
<v Speaker 1>let's hope you you know, when when the next one

1:28:19.600 --> 1:28:21.640
<v Speaker 1>doesn't die. And my point is all that stuff is

1:28:21.680 --> 1:28:25.400
<v Speaker 1>positive and all all the you know halo around influencers,

1:28:25.439 --> 1:28:29.719
<v Speaker 1>media personality CEO so Davos was crazy. It was lousy

1:28:29.760 --> 1:28:33.160
<v Speaker 1>with or rings. You know, it's crazy. So that's really

1:28:33.160 --> 1:28:35.599
<v Speaker 1>powerful for us. But the reality is I think most people,

1:28:35.640 --> 1:28:36.960
<v Speaker 1>you know, how they learn about it. They learn about

1:28:36.960 --> 1:28:38.960
<v Speaker 1>it from our friend. Well we talk about I feel

1:28:38.960 --> 1:28:41.200
<v Speaker 1>like there's bonding, like when you see somebody's on it's like, yeah,

1:28:41.560 --> 1:28:43.439
<v Speaker 1>it's just really great term you can use, but I

1:28:43.439 --> 1:28:46.280
<v Speaker 1>won't say it on air, but I can't say it. Yeah,

1:28:46.479 --> 1:28:50.000
<v Speaker 1>we'll have to talk about later. I'm not okay, Alright,

1:28:50.280 --> 1:28:52.240
<v Speaker 1>we're gonna come back with Tom Hale. Still got a

1:28:52.280 --> 1:28:53.920
<v Speaker 1>ton of questions to ask him. I want to get

1:28:53.960 --> 1:28:57.439
<v Speaker 1>back to is it Tim, is he the typical demo? Well, actually,

1:28:57.479 --> 1:29:00.120
<v Speaker 1>you know what's interesting is the typical demo is is

1:29:00.120 --> 1:29:02.240
<v Speaker 1>a perfect bell curve around the age thirty five and

1:29:02.360 --> 1:29:06.120
<v Speaker 1>equal male to female. Yah, we're gonna talk more about this,

1:29:06.160 --> 1:29:07.600
<v Speaker 1>and we wanna talk about growth in the business and

1:29:07.600 --> 1:29:10.240
<v Speaker 1>where it's all going. Tom Hale chief executive Officer or

1:29:10.479 --> 1:29:13.879
<v Speaker 1>in our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio. Our conversation will continue

1:29:13.920 --> 1:29:16.760
<v Speaker 1>in just a moment. Tom Hale still with US, Chief

1:29:16.760 --> 1:29:20.879
<v Speaker 1>Executive Officer of or A still in our Interactive Brokers studio.

1:29:21.200 --> 1:29:23.360
<v Speaker 1>So we're talking about your demo. So just let's go

1:29:23.400 --> 1:29:25.960
<v Speaker 1>back there. So your your typical buyer, I hate to

1:29:26.000 --> 1:29:29.479
<v Speaker 1>say that your average buyer of an horror ring is who. Yeah,

1:29:29.520 --> 1:29:32.040
<v Speaker 1>it's um it's actually a perfect bell curve on on

1:29:32.080 --> 1:29:34.400
<v Speaker 1>either side of age thirty five. And so you see,

1:29:34.560 --> 1:29:36.600
<v Speaker 1>you know, folks are aging in place who want to

1:29:36.600 --> 1:29:39.120
<v Speaker 1>manage their health, people who have chronic illnesses who are

1:29:39.120 --> 1:29:40.800
<v Speaker 1>trying to make sure they don't get sick. You have

1:29:40.880 --> 1:29:43.120
<v Speaker 1>thirty year old athletes who are training for their marathon

1:29:43.240 --> 1:29:45.400
<v Speaker 1>or their ten k. You have twenty year olds who

1:29:45.439 --> 1:29:48.040
<v Speaker 1>are women who are just coming to maturity and want

1:29:48.040 --> 1:29:51.680
<v Speaker 1>to manage their contraception using you know, non hormonal contraception.

1:29:51.920 --> 1:29:54.280
<v Speaker 1>You've got young kids, fifteen year olds who are training

1:29:54.320 --> 1:29:56.519
<v Speaker 1>for the first time and thinking about recovery and how

1:29:56.560 --> 1:29:58.559
<v Speaker 1>to do it. So it's a pretty broad span. Health,

1:29:58.600 --> 1:30:01.519
<v Speaker 1>of course, is a money killed beast. People are having

1:30:01.560 --> 1:30:03.840
<v Speaker 1>different health situations as they move through their life. Is

1:30:03.880 --> 1:30:06.400
<v Speaker 1>that what's really driving people to ultimately get it. It's

1:30:06.400 --> 1:30:10.519
<v Speaker 1>about sleep and health. So some people people who are

1:30:10.560 --> 1:30:12.240
<v Speaker 1>you know, I mean honestly, I think as you get older,

1:30:12.240 --> 1:30:14.320
<v Speaker 1>sleep becomes this thing. And if you're a woman or

1:30:14.360 --> 1:30:17.040
<v Speaker 1>a man in a certain age, like sleep becomes really important.

1:30:17.160 --> 1:30:19.679
<v Speaker 1>Fads are out of the nest. So sleep is really

1:30:19.760 --> 1:30:21.719
<v Speaker 1>a big driver. And the thing is as like sleep

1:30:21.760 --> 1:30:24.040
<v Speaker 1>as this habit that everybody does, but no one's particularly

1:30:24.040 --> 1:30:27.120
<v Speaker 1>good at, right And when you lose sleep, wow, you

1:30:27.160 --> 1:30:29.599
<v Speaker 1>feel it right acting to acquire looking at Carol right there?

1:30:30.000 --> 1:30:32.800
<v Speaker 1>Sleep is sleep is this? I was just reading that.

1:30:32.840 --> 1:30:34.479
<v Speaker 1>They say there's something that goes on with your brain

1:30:34.520 --> 1:30:37.400
<v Speaker 1>as you get older that affects your ability to kind

1:30:37.400 --> 1:30:41.040
<v Speaker 1>of stay asleep throughout. Lots of things change, right, pressures

1:30:41.040 --> 1:30:44.479
<v Speaker 1>of life, stress, you know, all sorts of things asleep.

1:30:44.680 --> 1:30:47.320
<v Speaker 1>So okay, talk about the scores here because that's mainly

1:30:47.360 --> 1:30:50.080
<v Speaker 1>what I look at on the app when I wake

1:30:50.160 --> 1:30:51.960
<v Speaker 1>up in the morning to see how I slept. What

1:30:52.240 --> 1:30:54.760
<v Speaker 1>do you aim for? What should people be sleeping? Like?

1:30:54.920 --> 1:30:57.320
<v Speaker 1>I think this is the things that everybody's health situation

1:30:57.360 --> 1:30:58.840
<v Speaker 1>is a little bit different. Really, what you're looking at

1:30:58.920 --> 1:31:02.160
<v Speaker 1>is your baseline again, medicine has been practiced for years

1:31:02.200 --> 1:31:04.519
<v Speaker 1>on the averages, and the truth is that we're all different.

1:31:04.920 --> 1:31:06.639
<v Speaker 1>In fact, not only are we different, but we're also

1:31:06.800 --> 1:31:10.280
<v Speaker 1>constantly changing. So the metrics that go into those three scores,

1:31:10.280 --> 1:31:13.760
<v Speaker 1>and the three scores for for clarity are sleep, activity,

1:31:13.760 --> 1:31:16.559
<v Speaker 1>and readiness. And sleep is really like how well did

1:31:16.560 --> 1:31:18.920
<v Speaker 1>you sleep? And it really understands a lot. How quickly

1:31:18.960 --> 1:31:21.120
<v Speaker 1>did you fall asleep, how much disturbances did you have,

1:31:21.160 --> 1:31:22.600
<v Speaker 1>how many how many times did you move around? How

1:31:22.640 --> 1:31:25.120
<v Speaker 1>many times did you wake up? Did you fall asleep quickly?

1:31:25.160 --> 1:31:26.960
<v Speaker 1>Did you fall asleep within your normal bedtime? All these

1:31:26.960 --> 1:31:28.799
<v Speaker 1>things are factors when we come up with one score,

1:31:29.200 --> 1:31:31.519
<v Speaker 1>and that score is like somewhere between zero and a hundred.

1:31:31.760 --> 1:31:34.439
<v Speaker 1>Very few people get a hundred. Some people do. Most people,

1:31:34.479 --> 1:31:36.479
<v Speaker 1>if you look at the bell curve, probably distributed between

1:31:36.479 --> 1:31:39.439
<v Speaker 1>seventy and eighty five. So if you're in that, you're

1:31:39.439 --> 1:31:41.600
<v Speaker 1>pretty good, right and I go for a I go

1:31:41.640 --> 1:31:44.479
<v Speaker 1>for seventy five? Are up? Yeah? Um? But it's not

1:31:44.560 --> 1:31:47.920
<v Speaker 1>easy good. And duration, by the way, is a really

1:31:47.920 --> 1:31:49.960
<v Speaker 1>important factor, right, but it's not the only factor. When

1:31:50.000 --> 1:31:52.519
<v Speaker 1>it comes to the data dump. If you will, there

1:31:52.640 --> 1:31:55.720
<v Speaker 1>is a point where you know it gets to be

1:31:55.760 --> 1:31:58.639
<v Speaker 1>a lot. How do you make sure that you're giving

1:31:58.640 --> 1:32:03.360
<v Speaker 1>people smart information, enough information, like what's the balance socretible? Well,

1:32:03.360 --> 1:32:05.880
<v Speaker 1>I think we think about it as most people just

1:32:05.920 --> 1:32:08.519
<v Speaker 1>want to check how they deviated from their baseline. And

1:32:08.520 --> 1:32:10.320
<v Speaker 1>that's actually one of the things that the software does.

1:32:10.360 --> 1:32:13.439
<v Speaker 1>It learns you kind of learns your patterns and then say, well,

1:32:13.439 --> 1:32:15.639
<v Speaker 1>this is a deviation from that pattern, so maybe something's

1:32:15.680 --> 1:32:18.559
<v Speaker 1>going on, and that the software kind of says, maybe

1:32:18.600 --> 1:32:20.920
<v Speaker 1>you should take a rest. You're gonna look at so

1:32:20.920 --> 1:32:23.320
<v Speaker 1>good today. Did you have a drink last night? You know,

1:32:23.360 --> 1:32:25.640
<v Speaker 1>it's like and and that that kind of like supportive

1:32:25.640 --> 1:32:27.880
<v Speaker 1>approach is really difference, really unique in the in the

1:32:27.920 --> 1:32:30.679
<v Speaker 1>wearable space because we're not saying get your ten thousand

1:32:30.680 --> 1:32:32.600
<v Speaker 1>steps whether you like it or not, or whether you

1:32:32.600 --> 1:32:34.120
<v Speaker 1>feel up to it or not. It's like we actually

1:32:34.760 --> 1:32:37.559
<v Speaker 1>our activity score adjusts, you know, we we actually the

1:32:37.600 --> 1:32:39.519
<v Speaker 1>activity goal we set a just based on your readiness

1:32:39.600 --> 1:32:42.040
<v Speaker 1>or honestly, Okay, let's talk numbers here. Yeah, let's talk

1:32:42.040 --> 1:32:43.880
<v Speaker 1>about the business. Yeah, I want to hear about the business.

1:32:43.920 --> 1:32:45.639
<v Speaker 1>So you know, you can buy one of these rings

1:32:47.000 --> 1:32:50.759
<v Speaker 1>Bucks Bucks, that's a one time revenue hit for you. Guys.

1:32:51.080 --> 1:32:53.640
<v Speaker 1>But then there's the membership six bucks a month. Do

1:32:53.640 --> 1:32:55.759
<v Speaker 1>you need to have the membership in order to get

1:32:56.000 --> 1:33:00.320
<v Speaker 1>to use the ring? Um? No is the answer. Um.

1:33:00.320 --> 1:33:01.880
<v Speaker 1>But I think one of the things that we think

1:33:01.920 --> 1:33:04.920
<v Speaker 1>a lot about is that your health really is priceless.

1:33:05.240 --> 1:33:07.760
<v Speaker 1>And actually the algorithms and the processing and the R

1:33:07.760 --> 1:33:09.240
<v Speaker 1>and D that we do that looks at your data,

1:33:09.280 --> 1:33:12.040
<v Speaker 1>it becomes more valuable over time. Right. It's not just

1:33:12.320 --> 1:33:14.240
<v Speaker 1>did you get your steps in today? And by the way,

1:33:14.280 --> 1:33:16.160
<v Speaker 1>once you figured out what ten thousand steps looks like,

1:33:16.200 --> 1:33:18.680
<v Speaker 1>do you really need to be told you got The

1:33:18.720 --> 1:33:21.519
<v Speaker 1>other thing that I'm curious about is, um, how many

1:33:21.520 --> 1:33:24.000
<v Speaker 1>people like churn people who buy them and keep them

1:33:24.320 --> 1:33:26.840
<v Speaker 1>because wearables are just known for people throwing them in

1:33:26.880 --> 1:33:30.000
<v Speaker 1>a drawer. So I can't give you all the fatigue,

1:33:30.160 --> 1:33:31.920
<v Speaker 1>but the device fatague. And I think that's where the

1:33:31.920 --> 1:33:34.040
<v Speaker 1>software comes in because we think about not only is

1:33:34.080 --> 1:33:37.679
<v Speaker 1>your data changing, right, because let's put it for example,

1:33:37.800 --> 1:33:41.839
<v Speaker 1>a lot of people get sick and the ring tells them, hey, listen,

1:33:42.520 --> 1:33:44.040
<v Speaker 1>you look like you might want to go into rest mode,

1:33:44.040 --> 1:33:47.360
<v Speaker 1>and the app reconfigures itself around you being sick. The

1:33:47.400 --> 1:33:51.360
<v Speaker 1>activity score goes away, the advice changes. The tone changes.

1:33:51.400 --> 1:33:52.920
<v Speaker 1>It goes from being like go for it to be

1:33:52.960 --> 1:33:56.880
<v Speaker 1>like take a break. And that customization, that experience is

1:33:56.920 --> 1:33:59.120
<v Speaker 1>different because your health condition has changed, all right, So

1:33:59.479 --> 1:34:02.400
<v Speaker 1>that idea that your health condition is changing all the

1:34:02.479 --> 1:34:04.840
<v Speaker 1>time and the way the app can figures that's value

1:34:04.840 --> 1:34:06.559
<v Speaker 1>over time. It did this to me when I got COVID.

1:34:06.840 --> 1:34:08.920
<v Speaker 1>It realized that I had COVID, right, you know, it

1:34:09.000 --> 1:34:11.720
<v Speaker 1>was like crazy sleep and stuff, televated body temperature and

1:34:11.720 --> 1:34:13.160
<v Speaker 1>it's you know, asked if I wanted to switch into

1:34:13.200 --> 1:34:14.760
<v Speaker 1>rest mode. You didn't answer my question about how many

1:34:14.760 --> 1:34:17.120
<v Speaker 1>people keep their ring on? Yeah, So two facts that

1:34:17.160 --> 1:34:20.160
<v Speaker 1>I could share. So one is the average wear time.

1:34:20.439 --> 1:34:22.599
<v Speaker 1>So if you look at the mean wear time over

1:34:22.680 --> 1:34:27.160
<v Speaker 1>twenty four hour period, the average mean about twenty two

1:34:27.360 --> 1:34:30.080
<v Speaker 1>hours and thirty minutes. Okay, that's the mean. When you

1:34:30.120 --> 1:34:34.479
<v Speaker 1>look at the median, it's actually twenty three hours and

1:34:34.640 --> 1:34:37.040
<v Speaker 1>thirty minutes. So what does that mean. It means half

1:34:37.080 --> 1:34:39.679
<v Speaker 1>above half a leg exactly. So that means most people

1:34:39.720 --> 1:34:41.920
<v Speaker 1>are wearing it more than twenty three hours. But I

1:34:41.960 --> 1:34:43.880
<v Speaker 1>guess when somebody puts the ring on, do they keep

1:34:43.920 --> 1:34:45.559
<v Speaker 1>it on for twelve months? Do they keep it on

1:34:45.600 --> 1:34:49.120
<v Speaker 1>for the second stat. The second stat is after twenty sorry,

1:34:49.160 --> 1:34:52.360
<v Speaker 1>after fifty two weeks, we have eight eight percent of

1:34:52.400 --> 1:34:55.040
<v Speaker 1>the people still engaged with the app. Now that is

1:34:55.360 --> 1:34:58.080
<v Speaker 1>shocking because, as you said, in the wearable world, the

1:34:58.080 --> 1:34:59.880
<v Speaker 1>typical thing is you get the wearable, you try it on,

1:34:59.880 --> 1:35:01.120
<v Speaker 1>you get some value, and you throw it in the

1:35:01.160 --> 1:35:02.840
<v Speaker 1>drawer because you figured it out, or you have to

1:35:02.920 --> 1:35:04.880
<v Speaker 1>charge it. All right, So how much is the business growing?

1:35:04.880 --> 1:35:09.000
<v Speaker 1>Your private but give us some metrics. Are you growing?

1:35:09.040 --> 1:35:11.400
<v Speaker 1>I think, oh, we're in hyper growth. That would that

1:35:11.400 --> 1:35:15.719
<v Speaker 1>would be the phrase that year. Every year I'm making

1:35:15.720 --> 1:35:17.680
<v Speaker 1>a face. You can't see it on Well, maybe you can.

1:35:17.800 --> 1:35:21.439
<v Speaker 1>But we're growing incredibly quickly, and you are profit in

1:35:21.479 --> 1:35:25.920
<v Speaker 1>a down market. We are investing, you're investing. Will you

1:35:25.920 --> 1:35:29.360
<v Speaker 1>go public? Um? I think we're building the business and

1:35:29.400 --> 1:35:32.280
<v Speaker 1>we want to build a big business. And um, Honestly,

1:35:32.320 --> 1:35:34.960
<v Speaker 1>having been in public companies, I'm not in any rush

1:35:35.400 --> 1:35:36.760
<v Speaker 1>to go public. I want to make sure we're set

1:35:36.840 --> 1:35:39.479
<v Speaker 1>up right. You need to raise any more money? Um, No,

1:35:39.600 --> 1:35:42.080
<v Speaker 1>we're probably set maybe even to a public event. We

1:35:42.160 --> 1:35:44.000
<v Speaker 1>might we might see one more round, even to a

1:35:44.040 --> 1:35:48.599
<v Speaker 1>public event. Yeah, so it could be a consideration. But

1:35:49.000 --> 1:35:51.800
<v Speaker 1>you never you did not hear it here actually did

1:35:52.880 --> 1:35:54.559
<v Speaker 1>and going it alone. Have no plans. Let me put

1:35:54.560 --> 1:35:56.040
<v Speaker 1>it this way to be explicit. We have no plans

1:35:56.040 --> 1:35:57.519
<v Speaker 1>to go public. I mean could an Apple like has

1:35:57.560 --> 1:35:59.920
<v Speaker 1>Apple come out to you? This was also recently a

1:36:00.040 --> 1:36:01.800
<v Speaker 1>think maybe by a colleague of yours. And I said,

1:36:01.840 --> 1:36:03.840
<v Speaker 1>when when when Tim calls, like I'm gonna pick up

1:36:03.840 --> 1:36:05.519
<v Speaker 1>the phone, but he hasn't called yet. All right, this

1:36:05.600 --> 1:36:07.880
<v Speaker 1>was a lot of fun. Come back soon, okay, Tom

1:36:07.960 --> 1:36:10.720
<v Speaker 1>Tom Hale, Chief executive Officer of Or of course. Uh

1:36:10.840 --> 1:36:13.599
<v Speaker 1>Here in our interactive broker studio, you're listening in watching

1:36:13.640 --> 1:36:17.120
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Business Week Carol Master, Tim Stanovic, and this is Bloomberg.

1:36:23.280 --> 1:36:28.000
<v Speaker 1>This is the Bloomberg Business Week podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,

1:36:28.040 --> 1:36:31.559
<v Speaker 1>and anywhere else you get your podcast. Listen live each

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