WEBVTT - Lessons from the Final Table 0:00:15.564 --> 0:00:24.244 Pushkin. I'm Maria Kannakova and. 0:00:24.204 --> 0:00:27.284 I'm Nate Silver. Welcome to Risky Business. 0:00:27.164 --> 0:00:31.044 A show about making better decisions. This is our first 0:00:31.084 --> 0:00:33.164 episode of the show, so I want to give you 0:00:33.164 --> 0:00:35.444 a little taste of the types of topics you can 0:00:35.444 --> 0:00:39.084 expect from us going forward. So we'll obviously be talking 0:00:39.084 --> 0:00:42.564 about politics and the elections since this is a major 0:00:42.604 --> 0:00:45.084 election year. We'll be talking about poker, We'll be talking 0:00:45.124 --> 0:00:48.044 about the news, and of course we're going to be 0:00:48.044 --> 0:00:50.404 talking about personal decisions. Right, how do you take this 0:00:50.644 --> 0:00:53.164 framework and make decisions in our day. 0:00:53.004 --> 0:00:56.044 To day lives conveniently almost as that we've planned this 0:00:56.124 --> 0:00:58.644 in advance. Our first show will cover all three of 0:00:58.644 --> 0:01:01.444 these areas. We'll have reflect with Maria on our recent 0:01:01.444 --> 0:01:03.964 poker success she had. We'll do a segment on RFK 0:01:04.124 --> 0:01:07.364 Junior and his effect on the presidential election, and we'll 0:01:07.364 --> 0:01:09.724 talk about Caitlin Clark and the economics of the pay 0:01:09.764 --> 0:01:11.044 gap and the WNBA. 0:01:12.124 --> 0:01:15.564 So, Nate, let's get into it. 0:01:23.044 --> 0:01:25.364 So, Maria, was it last week? It's all kind of 0:01:25.364 --> 0:01:27.444 blurring together, but I think last week we were making 0:01:27.484 --> 0:01:32.044 the official Twitter slash social media announcement about Risky Business, 0:01:32.044 --> 0:01:37.524 the podcast and you were absent from that cluster of 0:01:38.444 --> 0:01:40.164 information we wanted to spit out because you were at 0:01:40.204 --> 0:01:42.764 the final table of a poker tournament. Good excuse, I 0:01:42.764 --> 0:01:44.284 guess tell us more about that. 0:01:44.484 --> 0:01:48.404 Absolutely. So I was at EPT Monte Carlo, which is 0:01:48.804 --> 0:01:51.484 one of the flagship stops of the European Poker Tour, 0:01:51.524 --> 0:01:54.964 which is a Poker Stars event, and I was playing 0:01:55.084 --> 0:01:59.724 in the one euro side event and it was going 0:01:59.764 --> 0:02:03.444 pretty well. So at the time that I saw your 0:02:03.484 --> 0:02:06.404 emails and all of these announcements going back and forth, 0:02:06.844 --> 0:02:08.964 I was actually in the middle of a redraw for 0:02:09.004 --> 0:02:11.964 the final table and we were finally down to nine players. 0:02:12.764 --> 0:02:15.804 So I had, you know, a few brief moments to 0:02:15.884 --> 0:02:18.004 check my email when I saw of this and had 0:02:18.044 --> 0:02:21.484 to respond to you guys that. Unfortunately, I was going 0:02:21.564 --> 0:02:24.964 to have to be focused and not actually be paying 0:02:25.004 --> 0:02:28.404 attention to any social media announcements because final table is 0:02:28.404 --> 0:02:29.164 a pretty big deal. 0:02:29.644 --> 0:02:30.724 How much were you playing for? 0:02:31.124 --> 0:02:33.924 So first place was, and this is all in euros, 0:02:34.604 --> 0:02:37.044 was eighty three thousand, one hundred and eighty euros, so 0:02:37.084 --> 0:02:41.164 that's almost ninety thousand dollars and ninth yeah, not bad. 0:02:41.244 --> 0:02:43.284 And then ninth place, which would be you know you're 0:02:43.324 --> 0:02:46.204 the first one out at the final table was eight 0:02:46.884 --> 0:02:50.964 nine hundred euros, so that's just over nine thousand dollars. 0:02:51.084 --> 0:02:52.844 So that's a pretty big difference. 0:02:52.924 --> 0:02:54.404 That's why you weren't answering your emails. 0:02:54.884 --> 0:02:57.124 That is why I was not answering your egail. 0:02:57.164 --> 0:02:58.964 You can be bought off for that is correct. 0:02:59.044 --> 0:03:02.804 Date, I had to be very much paying attention. 0:03:03.084 --> 0:03:05.524 Yeah, I think people in poker and neglect the importance 0:03:05.524 --> 0:03:08.244 so focused sometimes because it's such a there's a lot 0:03:08.244 --> 0:03:10.964 of noise, right, I mean it's in any given final table, 0:03:11.044 --> 0:03:13.764 it's kind of mostly luck. But like if you go 0:03:13.884 --> 0:03:17.964 jogging or running right and you're really hungover, you notice 0:03:18.004 --> 0:03:20.404 the effect on your time, Right, there's no noise there 0:03:20.684 --> 0:03:23.644 in the data in poker, you don't, But like, tell 0:03:23.644 --> 0:03:27.524 me more about the importance of focus of shutting out distractions, 0:03:27.644 --> 0:03:30.164 especially in a high stakes moment like this. 0:03:31.084 --> 0:03:33.924 Yeah, I mean I think that you really really need 0:03:33.964 --> 0:03:37.644 to be fully present because normally during a poker tournament, right, 0:03:37.644 --> 0:03:40.244 this tournament started with around six hundred players. I don't 0:03:40.284 --> 0:03:41.964 remember if it was a few fewer than that or 0:03:42.004 --> 0:03:44.444 a few more, but around six hundred, right, So at 0:03:44.444 --> 0:03:47.324 that point you're sitting at a full table, and I'm 0:03:47.364 --> 0:03:49.204 not going to say you can phone it in, but 0:03:49.284 --> 0:03:52.004 you don't have to always give it one hundred percent 0:03:52.044 --> 0:03:54.204 of your focus, because a lot of poker is actually 0:03:54.204 --> 0:03:56.044 pretty boring, right. You don't play a lot of hands, 0:03:56.044 --> 0:03:57.724 you have to fold a lot, you get a lot 0:03:57.764 --> 0:04:00.124 of shitty hands, and you don't actually want to be 0:04:00.204 --> 0:04:02.924 tempted to play those. So a lot of the time 0:04:03.004 --> 0:04:05.924 you have down time. And of course I'd love to 0:04:05.924 --> 0:04:08.684 say that I'm one of those players with laser focus 0:04:08.684 --> 0:04:10.844 who never has my phone at the table, who is 0:04:10.884 --> 0:04:14.244 always one hundred percent present, but that is simply not true. 0:04:14.324 --> 0:04:16.764 I mean, I would be just absolutely lying if I 0:04:16.804 --> 0:04:19.084 said that, And I think it's just very difficult for 0:04:19.124 --> 0:04:21.204 the human brain to do that. I've actually written a lot. 0:04:21.244 --> 0:04:24.404 My first book was about mindfulness and presence and focus 0:04:24.804 --> 0:04:27.804 and the importance of that and decision making. And one 0:04:27.844 --> 0:04:30.804 of the things you find is that's incredibly, incredibly taxing 0:04:30.844 --> 0:04:34.524 for the brain because the brain in its default state wanders, 0:04:34.964 --> 0:04:38.564 and so it takes a lot of effort to focus, 0:04:38.924 --> 0:04:41.804 and so you have to save that effort for the 0:04:41.844 --> 0:04:44.764 moments when it really matters. And the final table is 0:04:44.844 --> 0:04:48.524 one of those moments because you're playing for really high 0:04:48.524 --> 0:04:53.044 stakes and all of a sudden, every single pay jump matters. 0:04:53.404 --> 0:04:56.244 It matters if I'm out in ninth place versus eighth place, 0:04:56.324 --> 0:04:59.444 versus seventh, versus six. And just to add to the 0:04:59.524 --> 0:05:02.564 drama of this particular final table, I had had a really, 0:05:02.564 --> 0:05:05.604 really shitty series up to that point, and I knew 0:05:05.684 --> 0:05:08.244 that in order to kind of dig myself out from 0:05:08.324 --> 0:05:10.884 the hole that I was in financially, I needed to 0:05:10.884 --> 0:05:13.084 place third or better. That was the only way that 0:05:13.124 --> 0:05:15.924 I would make money on this tournament, and damned if 0:05:15.964 --> 0:05:18.604 I was going to let anything distract me from doing that. 0:05:18.764 --> 0:05:21.044 One thing, too, is you kind of can't even like 0:05:21.924 --> 0:05:24.484 fake the focus part. There's a long discussion about this 0:05:24.524 --> 0:05:28.004 in my forthcoming book On the Edge. We're actually talked 0:05:28.044 --> 0:05:30.444 about an experience we had playing together Maria in the 0:05:30.444 --> 0:05:34.244 Bahamas where we were playing the twenty five k PSPC 0:05:34.764 --> 0:05:36.804 first time I played a twenty five thousand dollars tournament, 0:05:36.804 --> 0:05:40.284 and like, I was just really wired more than I 0:05:40.324 --> 0:05:42.844 wanted to be. You know, you're feeling your heart rate 0:05:42.964 --> 0:05:46.364 escalate a little bit, and when you're at a final table, 0:05:46.444 --> 0:05:51.444 then you are just inherently more in the zone, more 0:05:51.524 --> 0:05:54.644 alert that can be tuned too high. Sometimes. Part of 0:05:54.684 --> 0:05:57.244 the benefit of experience playing poker is that you know 0:05:57.284 --> 0:06:00.004 how to deal with that extra awareness and stress that 0:06:00.044 --> 0:06:03.324 you have. But you can't fake being interested on day 0:06:03.364 --> 0:06:07.404 one of some tiny buy in event two hundred blinds deep, right, 0:06:07.564 --> 0:06:11.244 but look, did you have any cool hands that you played? 0:06:11.524 --> 0:06:15.084 I did have one, specific, one very cool hand, which 0:06:15.164 --> 0:06:19.164 really I think illustrates a lot of the principles of 0:06:19.164 --> 0:06:21.684 a final table. So I came into the final table 0:06:22.444 --> 0:06:25.524 as one of the shorter stacks, so there were a 0:06:25.524 --> 0:06:28.124 lot of people who had more chips than I do. 0:06:29.244 --> 0:06:33.284 And let's say, for a second just kind of do 0:06:33.404 --> 0:06:38.124 a little asterisk and talk about how that changes when 0:06:38.164 --> 0:06:40.124 you're kind of at the beginning stages of a tournament 0:06:40.204 --> 0:06:43.204 versus the final table. So, because as I mentioned before, 0:06:43.204 --> 0:06:46.044 there are these huge pay jumps, and you know, the 0:06:46.564 --> 0:06:50.004 monetary value really shifts depending on which place you get. 0:06:50.364 --> 0:06:54.724 Your chips are no longer worth what just what they 0:06:54.804 --> 0:06:58.284 say they are, and the ranges meaning the hands that 0:06:58.324 --> 0:07:01.764 you play change, how aggressive you want to be changes, 0:07:02.084 --> 0:07:05.524 and your strategy really really changes depending on whether you're 0:07:05.524 --> 0:07:08.684 a short stack, a middle stack, or a chip leader, right, 0:07:08.724 --> 0:07:11.804 whether you have a ton of chips. And the cool 0:07:11.844 --> 0:07:15.804 thing about my situation when I was the short stack 0:07:16.244 --> 0:07:19.764 is like I'm in last place anyway, so I can 0:07:19.804 --> 0:07:22.164 take risks and I can actually put a lot of 0:07:22.204 --> 0:07:25.924 pressure on other people because I still have enough chips 0:07:25.924 --> 0:07:29.124 that I can really really put a dent in what 0:07:29.164 --> 0:07:31.324 they're doing. So at this stage of the tournament, I 0:07:31.404 --> 0:07:33.884 think there were eight of us left and I started 0:07:33.924 --> 0:07:37.404 the hand with I think seventeen big blinds. Big blinds 0:07:37.484 --> 0:07:39.524 are kind of those fource bets that you have to 0:07:39.564 --> 0:07:43.564 make blind to get some action going. So the number 0:07:43.564 --> 0:07:45.844 of biglindes is just a good way to gauge how 0:07:45.884 --> 0:07:48.524 long you can go right without without playing a hand 0:07:48.844 --> 0:07:51.924 and how long you can survive. So I was in 0:07:52.044 --> 0:07:55.884 first position, first to act, and I had ace king, 0:07:56.164 --> 0:07:57.484 which is a really strong hand. 0:07:57.644 --> 0:08:00.324 So you're in here's a test through which are our 0:08:00.404 --> 0:08:03.484 audience members know about poker? You're in first position. That 0:08:03.564 --> 0:08:06.004 must be really good. You always want to be first. 0:08:06.764 --> 0:08:09.804 What an interesting question, Nate. That is actually it's the 0:08:09.804 --> 0:08:14.644 polar opposite. So in poker and in decision making in general, 0:08:14.724 --> 0:08:18.004 this is actually a really really crucial point position, really 0:08:18.044 --> 0:08:21.524 really matters, and you actually want to be the last 0:08:21.564 --> 0:08:24.084 person to act. You want to be the last person 0:08:24.124 --> 0:08:26.884 to make the decision, which means you're in position. If 0:08:26.924 --> 0:08:28.844 you're in position, that means you get to see all 0:08:28.924 --> 0:08:31.564 the information beforehand and then you get to act. If 0:08:31.604 --> 0:08:33.524 you're out of position, that means that you have to 0:08:33.564 --> 0:08:36.524 go first, right, you choose what to do, but then 0:08:36.604 --> 0:08:39.084 all these other people see that and they have more 0:08:39.124 --> 0:08:41.444 information and they get to make a decision after you. 0:08:41.924 --> 0:08:43.884 So if you think about away from the poker table, 0:08:43.924 --> 0:08:46.364 like if you're in a salary negotiation, you do not 0:08:46.484 --> 0:08:48.044 want to throw out the first number. 0:08:48.404 --> 0:08:52.044 Say you're negotiating terms for a new podcast about decision making. 0:08:52.204 --> 0:08:55.804 Exactly, you want the other person to make the first offer, 0:08:56.124 --> 0:08:59.844 right because you do not want to accidentally low ball 0:08:59.924 --> 0:09:02.204 yourself or you know, you just you just want to 0:09:02.244 --> 0:09:05.044 know what the other person is thinking and then be 0:09:05.124 --> 0:09:08.924 able to respond to that. And so the positional advantages 0:09:08.964 --> 0:09:11.884 in poker are huge. So when you're in an early position, 0:09:12.084 --> 0:09:14.644 right when you're acting first, you have to actually be 0:09:14.724 --> 0:09:17.084 much more selective with the hand you play, and you 0:09:17.164 --> 0:09:20.364 have to be much more cautious because so many things 0:09:20.364 --> 0:09:22.764 can still happen. And I say this over and over, 0:09:23.124 --> 0:09:26.084 whether it's in poker or in decision making, because we're 0:09:26.124 --> 0:09:29.844 always playing games of incomplete information. Right, information is key. 0:09:30.124 --> 0:09:33.884 Information is power. The person with the most information has 0:09:33.924 --> 0:09:37.164 the edge, and so you want the edge and acting 0:09:37.204 --> 0:09:40.844 first ate it. So in this particular case, though, I 0:09:40.884 --> 0:09:42.564 have an amazing hand, so I'm going to open it. 0:09:42.804 --> 0:09:45.564 So that's what I do. And then two people who 0:09:45.604 --> 0:09:48.524 are acting after me decide that they're going to call, 0:09:48.764 --> 0:09:50.924 and they're both going to have position on me in 0:09:50.964 --> 0:09:54.804 the hand, So middle position calls and the button calls, 0:09:54.844 --> 0:09:57.084 and then the blinds fold. So what this means is 0:09:57.084 --> 0:09:58.924 that the only other two people in the hand are 0:09:58.924 --> 0:10:01.804 actually going to be deciding after me. And it's three ways, 0:10:01.884 --> 0:10:03.564 so that means that there's three of us, which means 0:10:03.644 --> 0:10:06.604 multi way, which is much more difficult to play. All right, 0:10:06.764 --> 0:10:10.524 So here we are ace King. Two people call and 0:10:10.684 --> 0:10:13.244 we get a flop, which is the first three community 0:10:13.284 --> 0:10:16.124 cards that everyone can see, and they are a Queen, 0:10:16.244 --> 0:10:20.324 a ten, and an eight and rainbow, and rainbow means 0:10:20.724 --> 0:10:25.324 that there are three different suits, so no possibility of 0:10:25.364 --> 0:10:25.884 a flush drawn. 0:10:26.004 --> 0:10:28.284 None of the cards match your cards, Maria. 0:10:27.724 --> 0:10:32.364 That is bad Nate. So I decide to check, which 0:10:32.404 --> 0:10:35.524 is always a really really good decision when there are 0:10:35.564 --> 0:10:38.844 lots of people acting after you. And what checking means 0:10:39.004 --> 0:10:41.284 is I just say I'm not going to act now. 0:10:41.364 --> 0:10:43.484 I check to you, and you can do what you 0:10:43.524 --> 0:10:47.284 want to do. And so I check, and the middle 0:10:47.284 --> 0:10:49.644 position player decides to bet, and he bets pretty big. 0:10:49.684 --> 0:10:53.244 He bets four big lines and the button. So the 0:10:53.244 --> 0:10:56.964 other player in the hand calls, and so here I am. 0:10:57.084 --> 0:11:02.524 And at this point we have nine big lines in 0:11:02.564 --> 0:11:05.644 the pot right starting to start the hand, plus the 0:11:05.644 --> 0:11:10.004 eight that just went in, So that is so right, 0:11:10.044 --> 0:11:12.484 that's that's my stack because I had bet two before 0:11:12.484 --> 0:11:16.724 the before the flow. So basically this is huge. And 0:11:16.844 --> 0:11:20.244 what do I do right? If I call, there are 0:11:20.284 --> 0:11:24.804 still two people behind me, and it's a really huge 0:11:24.884 --> 0:11:26.484 chunk of what I have left, and I'm going to 0:11:26.484 --> 0:11:28.524 be in a really bad position if I don't improve. 0:11:29.164 --> 0:11:31.924 And so I decide to run a big bluff or 0:11:32.004 --> 0:11:35.444 semi bluff because I could improve, and I decide to 0:11:35.484 --> 0:11:37.844 shove all my chips in the middle. I go all in. 0:11:38.684 --> 0:11:42.284 And that's a very risky play because if either one 0:11:42.324 --> 0:11:44.204 of them has anything and calls me, I'm out of 0:11:44.204 --> 0:11:46.684 the tournament. They both have more chips than I do. 0:11:47.604 --> 0:11:49.244 Or you make your or you hit your jack or 0:11:49.244 --> 0:11:52.364 I hit my jack. Right, we call it a semi 0:11:52.364 --> 0:11:55.644 bluff because there are some ways. You know, the jack 0:11:55.644 --> 0:11:57.804 always makes you the best hand. You can sometimes hit 0:11:58.084 --> 0:12:02.324 two kings in a row. Occasionally one acer king makes 0:12:02.324 --> 0:12:05.404 you the best hand. Yep, So you have some equity 0:12:05.404 --> 0:12:06.124 in the podos I do. 0:12:06.204 --> 0:12:08.404 I do have some equity, and I also have some 0:12:08.524 --> 0:12:12.124 fold equity, meaning I still have enough chips that my 0:12:12.364 --> 0:12:15.084 shove puts a lot of pressure on them. Right, So 0:12:15.124 --> 0:12:17.484 it's not like I'm shoving for four big blinds, which 0:12:17.524 --> 0:12:20.124 is what they already bet right, I'm shoving for a 0:12:20.164 --> 0:12:24.564 substantial amount more and the middle position player just folds instantly, 0:12:24.884 --> 0:12:28.604 which I was kind of relying on. So at a 0:12:28.644 --> 0:12:31.564 final table, especially, you will have been playing with these 0:12:31.604 --> 0:12:35.004 players for a long time several days in this case, 0:12:35.204 --> 0:12:37.204 and so you get to know their tendencies and how 0:12:37.244 --> 0:12:40.164 they play a lot more, and so you can make 0:12:40.244 --> 0:12:45.844 decisions that are much more fine tuned to these specific players. 0:12:46.204 --> 0:12:49.244 And so I knew that this middle position player was 0:12:49.244 --> 0:12:52.124 a recreational player who didn't really know what he was 0:12:52.164 --> 0:12:57.444 doing I'm sorry, and also really loved love to bet 0:12:57.524 --> 0:12:59.804 whenever anyone checked to him, like, I don't think he 0:12:59.884 --> 0:13:02.244 passed a single spot to bet, and he would just 0:13:02.244 --> 0:13:04.684 bet very random amount, so I was pretty sure he 0:13:04.724 --> 0:13:07.644 had nothing. And the person who was on the button 0:13:07.964 --> 0:13:12.324 was actually an old pro and he was someone who 0:13:12.364 --> 0:13:14.364 I'd been playing with for a while, and I knew 0:13:14.404 --> 0:13:18.204 he was very solid, good and very very capable of 0:13:18.244 --> 0:13:22.524 making big folds, which is crucial because after he calls 0:13:22.604 --> 0:13:25.364 with me to act behind, he has a good hand, right, 0:13:25.444 --> 0:13:27.924 he doesn't have just air, and so I need to 0:13:27.964 --> 0:13:29.804 be sure that this is a player who is capable 0:13:29.804 --> 0:13:33.964 of folding, because some players aren't. And so he starts tanking. 0:13:34.484 --> 0:13:37.844 And when someone goes into the tank that means they're thinking, 0:13:38.444 --> 0:13:43.324 and he is tanking and tanking and tanking, and the 0:13:43.404 --> 0:13:46.524 longer they tank, the likelihood that they're gonna call you 0:13:46.724 --> 0:13:50.004 goes up, right, So the longer he thinks here, I 0:13:50.044 --> 0:13:52.684 am sitting thinking, okay, well I guess I'm out of 0:13:52.724 --> 0:13:55.644 the tournament. And then finally he shows a queen and 0:13:55.684 --> 0:13:59.484 he folds his hand, so he folds top pair and 0:13:59.764 --> 0:14:04.844 I basically double my chips without any showdown whatsoever. And 0:14:04.884 --> 0:14:09.404 that was an absolutely crucial hand in the tournament because 0:14:09.684 --> 0:14:12.764 it gave me breathing room and it enabled me to 0:14:13.484 --> 0:14:16.924 make it to second place, which is what I eventually got. 0:14:17.124 --> 0:14:21.804 How much money Maria fifty two thousand euros. 0:14:21.444 --> 0:14:24.244 Which is Zero's good? Now there's like one point one. Yeah, 0:14:24.244 --> 0:14:24.924 it's it's like. 0:14:24.844 --> 0:14:27.604 Fifty six thousand something like that. Not as good as 0:14:27.604 --> 0:14:39.764 it would have been last year, but still pretty good. 0:14:41.204 --> 0:14:44.964 So one of the things that has been in the 0:14:44.964 --> 0:14:50.444 news lately and has really gotten me a little bit scared, 0:14:50.804 --> 0:14:53.804 to be perfectly honest, well, actually scared shitless would be 0:14:54.684 --> 0:14:58.684 a more precise technical term for how I'm feeling about 0:14:58.684 --> 0:15:03.724 it is how close this presidential election is, and the 0:15:03.804 --> 0:15:07.804 fact that with how close it is, we have suddenly 0:15:08.484 --> 0:15:11.604 these third part party candidates, and specifically I'm thinking about 0:15:11.964 --> 0:15:18.404 RFK Junior, who is actually pulling ridiculously well for a 0:15:18.404 --> 0:15:23.404 third party candidate, and makes me incredibly worried that there's 0:15:23.444 --> 0:15:27.604 a chance that you know, this person who has a 0:15:27.644 --> 0:15:30.044 brainworm or had a brain worm, I guess it's still 0:15:30.044 --> 0:15:32.244 in his brain so that he and his running mate 0:15:32.764 --> 0:15:37.084 the worm, who do not believe in a lot of 0:15:37.124 --> 0:15:41.044 things that are science based and who are members of 0:15:41.044 --> 0:15:43.924 the Kennedy family, that the two of them have a 0:15:43.964 --> 0:15:49.164 real chance of making a difference in states where the 0:15:49.244 --> 0:15:50.284 elections are close. 0:15:50.404 --> 0:15:52.844 Marie, can you please, yeah, pers I need to interrogate you. 0:15:53.364 --> 0:15:54.364 What state are you from? 0:15:54.484 --> 0:15:55.684 I'm from Massachusetts. 0:15:55.764 --> 0:15:58.484 Do you understand Americans the other four nine states don't 0:15:58.484 --> 0:16:00.444 give a fuck about the Kennedies and don't understand the 0:16:00.564 --> 0:16:01.644 entire Kennedy thing. 0:16:02.004 --> 0:16:05.364 No, Nate, I disagree. I disagree. I think the Kennedy 0:16:05.404 --> 0:16:09.124 thing is a huge thing, and it is a very 0:16:09.164 --> 0:16:11.804 big but yes, point taken. 0:16:12.084 --> 0:16:14.324 Okay, let me give two other kind of points of 0:16:14.404 --> 0:16:16.244 context for the listeners, one of which is kind of 0:16:16.284 --> 0:16:20.124 like a meta abstract point. Right, Maria, you planned to 0:16:20.204 --> 0:16:23.004 vote for Joe Biden? Is that right? Yes? 0:16:23.244 --> 0:16:23.644 Correct? 0:16:23.884 --> 0:16:26.084 And we're doing shows on politics. I think Maria is 0:16:26.084 --> 0:16:30.884 not going to make any hidden attempt to pretend that 0:16:30.924 --> 0:16:32.964 she's not a you know, don't know if you're a 0:16:33.004 --> 0:16:34.804 Democrat or not, but you're going to vote for Joe Biden. 0:16:34.844 --> 0:16:38.444 And I plan to vote for Joe Biden too. For 0:16:38.484 --> 0:16:41.324 what it's worth, however, I am not in these politics. 0:16:41.364 --> 0:16:44.644 I've been's going to make as many assumptions about what 0:16:44.724 --> 0:16:47.564 our audience necessarily thinks. Right. I hope we do have 0:16:47.604 --> 0:16:51.364 some Kennedy listeners and some Trump listeners whatever else. You're 0:16:51.364 --> 0:16:53.404 welcome to listen no matter what. But Maria is kind 0:16:53.404 --> 0:16:56.284 of going to be playing more of a partisan hat role, 0:16:56.364 --> 0:16:58.204 and I'll have more of a non partisan hat. So, 0:16:58.644 --> 0:17:01.164 and the second kind of assumption here is, I think 0:17:01.204 --> 0:17:04.684 you're assuming that Candy will draw more from Biden than 0:17:04.724 --> 0:17:07.044 from Trump, when I'm not so sure that's true. So 0:17:07.284 --> 0:17:11.684 in polls, Kennedy overall is at ten point two percent 0:17:11.764 --> 0:17:14.524 of the vote according to the five thirty eight average, 0:17:14.564 --> 0:17:17.404 which is the highest share of anybody since Ross Peruro 0:17:17.404 --> 0:17:19.924 in nineteen ninety six. If he wants up realizing that, well, 0:17:19.924 --> 0:17:22.484 debate in a moment how the numbers are more elected 0:17:22.524 --> 0:17:26.324 than not to fade. But ten percent is a serious 0:17:26.364 --> 0:17:29.644 chunk of the electorate. However, I mean, as you mentioned, 0:17:29.644 --> 0:17:36.284 Maria RFK Junior is not some liberal, progressive, pro science 0:17:36.364 --> 0:17:38.564 democrat with one of those yard signs we believe in 0:17:38.724 --> 0:17:41.004 xyz in front of in front of their house. He 0:17:41.084 --> 0:17:44.244 has some beliefs that the scientific consensus would not endorse 0:17:44.284 --> 0:17:47.764 about things like vaccines. For example, he is not to 0:17:48.324 --> 0:17:51.404 Biden's left on issues like abortion or Israel Palestine. He's 0:17:51.404 --> 0:17:54.844 to the right, although sometimes inconsistent in what he says, 0:17:55.044 --> 0:17:57.684 although at times he's been kind of linked with a 0:17:57.684 --> 0:18:00.564 libertarian nomination. Has kind of views all over the place 0:18:00.644 --> 0:18:03.364 on economic issues, a little hard to play, So he 0:18:03.484 --> 0:18:07.524 kind of seems to me like an anti establishment. You 0:18:07.524 --> 0:18:10.844 can say this nicely or not too nicely. Heterodox is 0:18:10.884 --> 0:18:14.044 a nice way to say it. Maybe kind of low 0:18:14.124 --> 0:18:17.524 information mix is a not so nice way to say it. 0:18:17.964 --> 0:18:22.524 Right to me, that reads like it's coming from the 0:18:22.564 --> 0:18:25.444 Trump pile as much as the Biden pile. And then 0:18:25.484 --> 0:18:27.644 the polls is all over the place. There are some 0:18:27.804 --> 0:18:31.284 polls where Candy draws more support from Trump, similar he 0:18:31.364 --> 0:18:34.444 draws more support from Biden. You could say examples, but 0:18:34.484 --> 0:18:36.604 you can have you can you know, every which way 0:18:37.244 --> 0:18:40.124 potentially in terms of the effect on November. By the way, 0:18:40.164 --> 0:18:43.404 there's also Cornell West and Jill Stein who are definitely 0:18:43.484 --> 0:18:46.204 running to Biden's left and are I think purely harmful 0:18:46.244 --> 0:18:48.924 to Biden. But I think look, if I'm Joe Biden, 0:18:48.924 --> 0:18:51.524 I have a lot of concerns right now, including the 0:18:51.524 --> 0:18:53.324 fact that I'm eighty one years old, the fact that 0:18:55.164 --> 0:18:57.484 you know, voters are still concerned about inflation, the fact 0:18:57.524 --> 0:18:59.684 that you have kind of a lot of pushback against 0:18:59.724 --> 0:19:02.324 the left. Now, I'm not sure if RFK Juniors had 0:19:02.364 --> 0:19:05.604 my top five concerns at the moment. 0:19:07.124 --> 0:19:10.724 So then, but in it all, that's at least right now, 0:19:11.204 --> 0:19:14.484 so close, right, So many polls have them just neck 0:19:14.524 --> 0:19:17.044 and neck, fifty to fifty more or less. Some have 0:19:17.204 --> 0:19:19.844 you know, Trump ahead, some have Biden ahead. You know, 0:19:19.844 --> 0:19:22.404 it depends on the state. But when we're talking about 0:19:22.404 --> 0:19:26.324 states that actually matter, So Nate, you vote in New York, 0:19:26.804 --> 0:19:30.204 and I voted in Massachusetts. Then I voted in New York. 0:19:30.484 --> 0:19:33.884 But now I actually get to vote in Nevada, which 0:19:34.044 --> 0:19:36.284 is a purple state and a state that is actually 0:19:36.364 --> 0:19:40.004 a swing state. So my vote finally matters. It actually 0:19:40.044 --> 0:19:43.164 matters who I am voting for. And in places like Michigan, 0:19:43.324 --> 0:19:46.684 you know, votes definitely matter. So in those cases, right 0:19:46.764 --> 0:19:50.124 in those states where every single vote is actually crucially important, 0:19:50.564 --> 0:19:55.684 do we think that collectively third party candidates, including RFK Junior, 0:19:55.964 --> 0:19:58.204 are going to be in a position where they actually 0:19:58.324 --> 0:19:59.764 might swing the outcome of the election. 0:20:00.284 --> 0:20:04.564 So historically, third party candidates get less of the vote 0:20:04.604 --> 0:20:09.724 in swing states because voters, even before a podcast Maria, 0:20:10.044 --> 0:20:13.204 some voters were rational. They would understand that, like, if 0:20:13.244 --> 0:20:14.844 you're running in New York and you want to send 0:20:14.884 --> 0:20:18.204 a message to Biden and Democrats or the two party 0:20:18.244 --> 0:20:21.124 system by lending a vote to a third party, it's 0:20:21.164 --> 0:20:22.924 not going to actually affect the outcome in the election. 0:20:22.964 --> 0:20:26.404 If you're in Pennsylvania or Arizona or Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, 0:20:26.844 --> 0:20:28.684 then it might. And I think people like actually are 0:20:29.324 --> 0:20:33.364 are relatively rational about that. We've had in the last 0:20:33.364 --> 0:20:36.964 two elections what I call tipping point states, a fancy 0:20:37.044 --> 0:20:39.804 term for the states that make the differen between who 0:20:39.804 --> 0:20:42.484 gets two hundred and seventy electoral votes and not came 0:20:42.564 --> 0:20:45.284 down to a percentage point or so. So yeah, in theory, 0:20:45.284 --> 0:20:48.084 if you have a guy taking ten percent or let's say, 0:20:48.084 --> 0:20:51.204 because by the way, it usually does go down. Because 0:20:51.284 --> 0:20:53.644 right now, people kind of use RFK as like a 0:20:53.644 --> 0:20:57.124 free parking space for deciding what we'll do later to 0:20:57.204 --> 0:21:00.764 demonstrate their lack of satisfaction with these two very old 0:21:00.804 --> 0:21:02.964 men who are running again in a rematch. A lot 0:21:02.964 --> 0:21:05.164 of Americans do not want. Although Canny himself was I 0:21:05.164 --> 0:21:06.444 think over seventy years old. 0:21:07.364 --> 0:21:09.844 He is, and he had a warm parasite the brain 0:21:10.084 --> 0:21:11.164 who ate part of his brain. 0:21:11.324 --> 0:21:14.444 Yeah, I mean, you know, look, I'm not sure what 0:21:14.524 --> 0:21:16.684 it told people that personally, if I if I have brainworms, 0:21:16.684 --> 0:21:18.524 I'm not going to do a brainworm segment on this. 0:21:18.924 --> 0:21:19.444 He didn't. 0:21:19.484 --> 0:21:19.924 He didn't. 0:21:20.044 --> 0:21:23.364