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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: It's the most wonderful time.

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Speaker 3: What's up the general nation?

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Speaker 4: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This is the College

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Speaker 4: Football Bowl Beading Preview, Part two. We're going to cover

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Speaker 4: games going from BYU Hawaii and the Hawaii Bowl on

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Speaker 4: Tuesday through the afternoon games on Friday. As always, we

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Speaker 4: have an episode that we record on Thursday nights. We're

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Speaker 4: going to talk college football playoffs the entire weekend, and

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Speaker 4: you know, we'll also talk to Friday night games.

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Speaker 2: There are some things that could potentially change.

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Speaker 4: We want to hold off as long as possible for

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Speaker 4: as much updated info as we can get for those,

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Speaker 4: So we'll cover the night games on Friday Friday Night

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Speaker 4: Lights as we always do. On Thursday. We'll get to

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Speaker 4: the Friday afternoon games on this podcast. Joining me as

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Speaker 4: always is Colin Wilson.

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Speaker 2: What's going on?

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Speaker 3: Good to be in the heart of bowl season. I

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Speaker 3: don't think you can ask for much more than Miami

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Speaker 3: going to Louisiana to play Louisiana Tech and the Hawaii

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Speaker 3: Bowl being back on Christmas Eve is what America is

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Speaker 3: all about. I just cannot believe that we had to

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Speaker 3: go like a Christmas and a Christmas Eve without.

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Speaker 2: A bowl last year.

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Speaker 3: I mean, what else am I supposed to do? Pay

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Speaker 3: attention to my family. I mean, let me just shout

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Speaker 3: out to all the single parents out there. Years you

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Speaker 3: don't have your kids sucks. You have nothing to do.

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Speaker 3: There's an assload of presents under the tree for a

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Speaker 3: bunch of kids that you love, but you can't see

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Speaker 3: because you're divorced. You have to have a bowl game

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Speaker 3: on TV or Christmas Eve at Christmas, give us some

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Speaker 3: football and thank god, the Hawaii Bowl is back.

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Speaker 1: Ladies and gentlemen, It's bull season.

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Speaker 4: I mean, unfortunately, we do not have any Christmas Day

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Speaker 4: bowl games.

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Speaker 2: It's always an NBA day unfortunately about the NBA.

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Speaker 4: But for me in Hawaii on Christmas Eve, what Christmas

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Speaker 4: is all about to me is the Diamond Head Classic. Baby,

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Speaker 4: the championship game in that college basketball tournament is on Christmas.

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Speaker 4: It's usually I think like four in the afternoon. I'm

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Speaker 4: always just hiding somewhere. When I remember when I was younger,

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Speaker 4: I'm going to be just set my house on Christmas

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Speaker 4: this year, but just hiding somewhere in that house in

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Speaker 4: high school with money on that meetingless college basketball game

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Speaker 4: usually back in Hawaii is a dog in that spot

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Speaker 4: if they get to the championship. A lot of Hawaii

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Speaker 4: memories around Christmas, So let's start there Christmas Eve. You

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Speaker 4: know this game is going to be so heavily bet.

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Speaker 4: The problem for me is, and we're speaking of Hawaii BYU.

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Speaker 4: You know, this is this line sitting right around It's

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Speaker 4: sitting at two, still one and a.

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Speaker 3: Half out of circa two at some of the other books.

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Speaker 3: But I mean this has been one of the most

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Speaker 3: stagnant lines in the market.

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Speaker 4: Over unders has risen a couple points from sixty two

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Speaker 4: to sixty four. This game will be at eight pm

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Speaker 4: Eastern on Tuesday.

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Speaker 2: Now.

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Speaker 4: One of the things that I look at is, you

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Speaker 4: know these teams, the BYU pass defense, they don't really

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Speaker 4: let up a lot of explosive plays. They play you know,

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Speaker 4: a lot of guys back. You saw that when they

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Speaker 4: played USC. They drop a lot of guys back. They

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Speaker 4: don't let it much behind them, but you can efficiently

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Speaker 4: pass on them. The Waii pass offense is not explosive

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Speaker 4: at all. One hundred and fourteenth and pass exposedness, but

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Speaker 4: they can efficiently no matter who the quarterback is McDonald

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Speaker 4: or Cordera, they can officially move the ball down the

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Speaker 4: field their eighth and rushing success rate twelfth and passing

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Speaker 4: success rate. You know, this BYU defense is not the

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Speaker 4: most efficient defense. It doesn't give up big plays, but

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Speaker 4: other than that, it doesn't do much. One hundred and

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Speaker 4: twenty third in sack. Right, I think Hawaii can have

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Speaker 4: some success move to the ball. And then when BYU

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Speaker 4: is on offense, you know, the offense isn't great and

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Speaker 4: it's not explosive. When you think BYU, just think it

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Speaker 4: not explosive. Right, They don't give up any explosive plays

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Speaker 4: on defense, and they have no exposedness on offense. I

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Speaker 4: think they're outside the top one hundred and rushing and

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Speaker 4: passing explosiveness. You know, but it's a fairly efficient offense

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Speaker 4: that can move the ball against bad defenses.

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Speaker 2: And that's what you'll get here.

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Speaker 4: A horrible Hawaii defense one hundred and eleventh and rushing

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Speaker 4: success rate the eighty fourth and passing success rate a

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Speaker 4: little better, but one hundred and sixteenth in rush explosiveness.

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Speaker 4: They also don't give up big plays in the passing game.

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Speaker 4: But BYU should efficiently move the ball. They should dominate

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Speaker 4: the line of scrimmage. And you know, so, I think

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Speaker 4: both offenses here should move the ball. Nowaii doesn't move

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Speaker 4: that fast, which is something to keep in mind. People

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Speaker 4: think you always mentioned this as well because they're the

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Speaker 4: run and shoot because they throw it a lot, but

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Speaker 4: they're eighty fifth and seconds per play BYU isn't fast

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Speaker 4: as well. From a special team's perspective, neither special teams

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Speaker 4: unit is great. But you know so, I'm conflicted. I

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Speaker 4: wanted to lean over because I do think that both

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Speaker 4: of these teams can move the ball consistently throughout this game.

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Speaker 4: But the pace, I don't know if is necessarily going

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Speaker 4: to be there. And you won't see that many explosive plays.

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Speaker 4: So what do you see here?

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Speaker 3: But you mentioned it over, in my mind immediately had

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Speaker 3: a fly back to that Dan Mountain West Conference championship

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Speaker 3: game where Hawaii had it down to the one yard

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Speaker 3: line Boise he jumped off sides and the ref somehow

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Speaker 3: didn't see it. So I mentioned to see who the

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Speaker 3: Zebra crew is going to be here for this bowl game.

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Speaker 3: But listen, this is a heated rivalry. You know, these

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Speaker 3: two teams do not like each other. Goes back to

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Speaker 3: the Whack days. But Hawaii is like a fertile ground,

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Speaker 3: a pipeline for the BYU program to go in and

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Speaker 3: get a lot of their players. Signing Day just happened.

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Speaker 3: I know that they had a lot of Hawaii guys

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Speaker 3: on their list. It's just a place where they've gone down,

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Speaker 3: had a bunch of success. And Nick Rolovich, who has

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Speaker 3: a very personal connection to this rivalry. I mean he

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Speaker 3: played as Hawaii's quarterback. He threw his school record eight

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Speaker 3: touchdown passes and a victory over the Cougars in two

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Speaker 3: thousand and one. So Rolovich, he knows to beat BYU

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Speaker 3: is a really big deal, and he knows that he

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Speaker 3: has to keep these players in state, and this is

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Speaker 3: a really big part of it so far as motivation goes.

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Speaker 3: This is a rivalry game. It goes back to the

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Speaker 3: Whack days, and all these kids that are playing are

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Speaker 3: going to know that now Stuck's exactly right BYU excellent, excellent,

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Speaker 3: preventing explosive plays. So I mean they've got that aspect

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Speaker 3: going there for him. I think the thing that I

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Speaker 3: keep getting wrapped up into and all the money and

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Speaker 3: all the tickets and everything that we've seen has been

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Speaker 3: on BYU early on, and I don't think the public

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Speaker 3: has really gotten into this game yet. I don't know

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Speaker 3: which side, you know, where they're going to go. With

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Speaker 3: Action Network, we make this game minus five and a half,

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Speaker 3: but probably with the home field advantage stuck in for

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Speaker 3: Hawaii even though they don't have that much of a

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Speaker 3: crowd there. Generally we make their home field advantage about

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Speaker 3: one point one. I think that's the reason for the

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Speaker 3: points sphere where it's at right now. But I just

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Speaker 3: keep coming back to this factor with BYU. They've been

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Speaker 3: so hurt the roster in September played. I mean they

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Speaker 3: had some brutal games. They played Utah, they played Tennessee.

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Speaker 3: You know, they've played some really big games and it's

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Speaker 3: taken a toll on them as far as their health

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Speaker 3: got down to fourth string quarterback Jared Krischlau oh, by

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Speaker 3: the way, who put his name in the transfer portal there.

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Speaker 3: But Zach Wilson is healthy for this game. To me,

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Speaker 3: he is the true X factor. He showed up at

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Speaker 3: the Potato Bowl last year, went eighteen for eighteen, had

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Speaker 3: four touchdowns, no interceptions. He was fantastic, And I think

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Speaker 3: Zach Wilson certainly is the X factor for the BYU offense.

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Speaker 3: You know, and this is a game, you know from

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Speaker 3: the advanced stands, so why should be able to move

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Speaker 3: the chains? You know. Their success rate is in the

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Speaker 3: top fifteen, but they're not very explosive, which plays into BYU.

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Speaker 3: Like we mentioned, you know and don't. I don't expect

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Speaker 3: a whole bunch of sacks on both sides. Both teams

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Speaker 3: are outside the top one twenty and sach rate. I

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Speaker 3: think the BYU is just it's just tough to handicap

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Speaker 3: them because of all their injuries. They played all four

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Speaker 3: different quarterbacks, you know, and I think Zach Wilson's return

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Speaker 3: and him being fully healthy is what the difference is

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Speaker 3: in this game, and it's not being put into the number.

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Speaker 3: I mean, these guys when they went to UMass played

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Speaker 3: everybody in the third and fourth string because they're trying

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Speaker 3: to keep healthy. They did the same thing against Idaho State.

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Speaker 3: I mean, we've not seen all of BYU play since

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Speaker 3: the end of October. I mean they basically took off

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Speaker 3: against San Diego State too, So I just think it's

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Speaker 3: I don't think BYU is being properly handicapped. I think

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Speaker 3: they're being handicapped on the team that they were in

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Speaker 3: November when a lot of people were sitting out, versus

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Speaker 3: the team that they were when they were beating Tennessee

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Speaker 3: or the team that they were when they were playing

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Speaker 3: some of the bigger names on their schedule in September.

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Speaker 3: I mean, this is still a team that kept it

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Speaker 3: close with Utah.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, that Utah Box school is really misleading.

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Speaker 4: If you look at from a you know, this team

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Speaker 4: that won at Tennessee, it's a team that beat USC

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Speaker 4: at home. You know, if you look at from a

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Speaker 4: strength of schedule, this team, you know, was had a

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Speaker 4: significantly tougher schedule than Hawaii. And one of the things

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Speaker 4: you mentioned that's interesting is and just go if you

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Speaker 4: have some free time. You know, if you look at

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Speaker 4: the rosters of BYU in Utah, you know, you have

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Speaker 4: a bunch of these names that you can't pronounce. It's

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Speaker 4: a lot of kids of Polynesian descent. You have Samoans

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Speaker 4: and Tongans. Why is that, Well, they recruited WII really well,

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Speaker 4: but there's you know that both of those countries have

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Speaker 4: very high LDS populations. The Church of Latur day Saints

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Speaker 4: in a high percentage of Mormon, so you know, and

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Speaker 4: there's actually you know, a lot of uh Samoans and

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Speaker 4: Tongans in the state of Utah, which is why Utah

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Speaker 4: and b Yu. And if you want to look up

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Speaker 4: a really beautiful campus, look up b YU Hawaii. That's

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Speaker 4: a school in Hawaii, Burthening Young University. Why it's on

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Speaker 4: the water in the mountains. It's gorgeous campus. So there's

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Speaker 4: a lot of connections here for various reasons. And you know,

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Speaker 4: BYU really thrives on recruiting, just like Utah, the Polynesian

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Speaker 4: kids from Polynesian descent for various reasons. So I do

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Speaker 4: think that they'll care here. And like you said that

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Speaker 4: there's a lot of hate. I do think because the

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Speaker 4: offenses can move the ball efficiently, we should see some points,

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Speaker 4: but because of the expensive plays, because the pace, I

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Speaker 4: don't know if I want to get involved in the

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Speaker 4: over because I do believe both teams can score and answer.

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Speaker 4: I think it's a great live betting game. Just get

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Speaker 4: both sides and trade this game.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, I think you can absolutely get both sides

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Speaker 3: of this game. And I think if you're not comfortable

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Speaker 3: with taking BYU minus too, maybe you want to see

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Speaker 3: how Zach Wilson does if he comes out and he's

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Speaker 3: on fire, then you know I wouldn't I make it

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Speaker 3: five and a half. I don't think there's any hurt

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Speaker 3: in taking a BYU number that's above two, taking it

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Speaker 3: at four or maybe six. If Zach Wilson is on

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Speaker 3: he's a difference maker in this game. Cole MacDonald has

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Speaker 3: the ability to be extremely hot in the next drive

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Speaker 3: be replaced by Chack Odero.

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Speaker 4: So it's odd because krdair's the future. Yeah, did they

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Speaker 4: play him or do they just go back and forth

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Speaker 4: as they've been doing.

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Speaker 2: Do they honor McDonald let him play more? I don't.

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Speaker 2: I don't. I haven't read anything to tell me what

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Speaker 2: they're going to do.

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Speaker 3: It seems like Rolovich's is content to allowing Cole McDonald

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Speaker 3: to play until he doesn't have it. It's like taking

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Speaker 3: a picture out in the fifth or sixth depending on

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Speaker 3: his his pitch count. It's just it's just once Cole

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Speaker 3: MacDonald doesn't have it, he will slap in Cordero immediately.

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Speaker 3: And for the last few games that I've been watching Hawaii.

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Speaker 3: It seems like Cole McDonald doesn't ever come back in, Like,

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Speaker 3: once he's out, he's done. You know. Cordero definitely doesn't

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Speaker 3: have the skill set to be as explosive and as

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Speaker 3: impressive as Cole McDonald, but he's also has the ability

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Speaker 3: not to be to throw as many I n t's

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Speaker 3: and be as careless with it with running the offense.

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Speaker 3: So uh, it's But the thing is is, I don't

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Speaker 3: I don't really make one quarterback better than the other.

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Speaker 3: I just think Hawaii's ability to put points up on

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Speaker 3: the board faster isn't isn't there with Cordero.

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Speaker 4: They're different because Cordero is safer, more efficient, whereas McDonald

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Speaker 4: is riskier and will hit bigger throws but also turn

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Speaker 4: the ball over on some Thursday you say, well why

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Speaker 4: did you throw that? So yeah, I think overall they

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Speaker 4: bring different pros and cons to the table, but I

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Speaker 4: think they rate about simmer pretty similarly. All right, So

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Speaker 4: let's move on to nothing on Christmas Day. But we

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Speaker 4: will have college basketball in Hawaii. Our NBA team, which

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Speaker 4: is best in the business, will have tons of stuff

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Speaker 4: on the NBA slate on Christmas I think it's a

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Speaker 4: Celtics Raptors, buck Sixers, Rockets, Warriors. Get the Warriors, boot

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Speaker 4: them out? Can't they switch these at this garbage team

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Speaker 4: on national TV all the time. That's the five o'clock

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Speaker 4: game of Warriors. Then Clippers Lakers, that's the big one

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Speaker 4: at eight o'clock. I'll even tune in for some of that.

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Speaker 4: No football on a Wednesday night and then Pelicans Nuggets.

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Speaker 4: Make sure you check out all of our content for that.

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Speaker 4: But we'll have to take a break from college football

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Speaker 4: on Christmas Day. We will get right back after the

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Speaker 4: day after Christmas with two bowl games on Thursday, December

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Speaker 4: twenty sixth will start in the afternoon, four pm Eastern

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Speaker 4: in Shreveport and the Independence Bowl. Really interesting bowl game

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Speaker 4: between Louisiana Tech and Miami. And you know, you might

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Speaker 4: say Louisiana Tech at Miami, why is that interesting?

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Speaker 3: Well?

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Speaker 4: To me, it's really interesting because of the line and

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Speaker 4: figuring out this is a game where you want to

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Speaker 4: figure out the motivation. I've been so high on Miami

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Speaker 4: all year, but they're a team that could just shit

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Speaker 4: the bed at on any given that week if they

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Speaker 4: don't show up, if they turn the ball over. They

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Speaker 4: can beat themselves. I make this line fourteen fourteen. I've

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Speaker 4: told you all year I've been I've had Miami's the

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Speaker 4: top twenty five, top thirty teen, and.

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Speaker 2: I've tried to adjust law Tech because lot of Tech.

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Speaker 4: Is tough because they play with other star players, so

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Speaker 4: they try to throw a lout of that out at

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Speaker 4: the end of the year for those couple of games.

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Speaker 4: But I still make it right around fourteen. But Miami

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Speaker 4: is sitting here at six and six. They could play

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Speaker 4: with anyone in the country. They also can lose.

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Speaker 2: To anybody in the country.

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Speaker 4: And at the end of the day, you would you

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Speaker 4: have to figure out in this game because this line

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Speaker 4: has come down from ten and a half to six.

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Speaker 4: And I can tell you when I'm looking at this game,

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Speaker 4: I make it fourteen, be a no brainer, play at six,

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Speaker 4: and I might still play it at six. When I

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Speaker 4: look at this game, there's a lot to like on

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Speaker 4: the matchup side of the Miami defense. You know, they

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Speaker 4: give up a bunch of explosive pass, explosive pass and rush.

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Speaker 4: They give up big plays, but that's not Louisiana Tech's offense.

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Speaker 4: Other than that, the Miami front seven should dominate. Uh,

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Speaker 4: you know, on the offensive side of the ball, Miami's

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Speaker 4: offense is ugly, and you know it makes me I'm

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Speaker 4: starting to feel the under here a little bit. But

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Speaker 4: what I'm trying to figure out, and why I just

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Speaker 4: didn't auto bomb Miami, is do they care at all

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Speaker 4: about this game after how they ended the season? I mean,

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Speaker 4: this is a team that you know, had lofty expectations,

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Speaker 4: had really high They had a bunch of highs and lows,

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Speaker 4: but they just closed the year out losing to FIU

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Speaker 4: as three touchdown favorites and then losing to Duke as

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Speaker 4: ten point favorites at at Duke. And now they played

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Speaker 4: Louisiana Tech on to day after Christmas and the Independence Bowl,

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Speaker 4: you know, And by the way, with that under, Miami

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Speaker 4: plays really slow. L Tech is about average and pace

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Speaker 4: and neither team has great special teams.

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Speaker 2: But does Miami care? That's what I keep trying to

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Speaker 2: figure out. What do you see here?

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Speaker 3: It's kind of stagnant on forty nine and a half fifty.

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Speaker 3: There has been a lot of the bigger money's all

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Speaker 3: been on the under because I think that they're kind

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Speaker 3: of seeing what you and I are seeing. And by

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Speaker 3: the way, when I mentioned the money, the early money

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Speaker 3: on Bowl games are people that pay attention to this

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Speaker 3: stuff and do this, you know, professionally, or do this

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Speaker 3: semi professionally. So when you see early money on a

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Speaker 3: team in Bowl games, it's because people are trying to

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Speaker 3: take the smart people who usually are really high in

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Speaker 3: intel or trying to take a position. They'll come back

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Speaker 3: and reassess later on. So when I say that money

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Speaker 3: is you know, at this aspect this early in the game,

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Speaker 3: that means it's probably a pretty sharp idea, you know,

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Speaker 3: trying to take a position. And I would definitely want

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Speaker 3: to be above forty nine when it comes to totals

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Speaker 3: and if I'm taking an under, and that's where it's

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Speaker 3: at right now. And the problem is I want the

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Speaker 3: first half under, but there's no first half lines out

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Speaker 3: right now. I would like a twenty four. We'll see

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Speaker 3: what happens when those numbers keep coming out, but I

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Speaker 3: could they agree with you. This is the first Bowl

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Speaker 3: game after Christmas. So what that means is the players

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Speaker 3: have to be in Shreeport on Christmas, the families have

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Speaker 3: to be in Shreeport on Christmas, the coaches, everybody's got

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Speaker 3: to be there. You know who doesn't have to be

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Speaker 3: in Shreeport on Christmas the Louisiana Tech players because it's

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Speaker 3: just like an hour or so down the road. I mean,

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Speaker 3: they could spend time with their family and still be

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Speaker 3: at the stadium the morning of the game. And so

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Speaker 3: it's a huge disadvantage from that perspective. Say what we

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Speaker 3: want about Miami. Their defense is fantastic, one of the

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Speaker 3: best of the nation ninth and havoc fourth, and line

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Speaker 3: yards tenth and power success fifth and sacarate fourteenth against

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Speaker 3: the rush. You know everything that you could say this.

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Speaker 3: This Miami defense is fantastic, and it's been the backbone

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Speaker 3: of this team. It's the offensive line, and it's the

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Speaker 3: inconsistenty of Jared Williams and the acanisty of Nicosi Perry.

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Speaker 3: That's and Manny Diaz hired the wrong offensive coordinator. I

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Speaker 3: talked about it in August. I don't like dan Enos.

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Speaker 3: He's never succeeded anywhere I've ever seen and now here

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Speaker 3: we are losing to FIU. We had a subpar year,

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Speaker 3: especially offensively. Did you think things were gonna get better

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Speaker 3: with dan Enos offensively? I don't think anything. I don't

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Speaker 3: expect anything to be remedied for Miami in this game.

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Speaker 3: I think Jared Williams is actually very talented and can

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Speaker 3: be a good quarterback. But who's coaching him, who's making

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Speaker 3: him better, who's overseeing his growth? Obviously Nikosy Perry's growth

363
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Speaker 3: has not been there this year, so that's a problem. Now,

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Speaker 3: as Stuck said, the number outrageous. It's outrageous. I make

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Speaker 3: it twelve. S P plus makes it twelve point nine.

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Speaker 3: Stuck makes it fourteen. This number is completely outrageous. Factor

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Speaker 3: in home field, whatever it is, because I mean it's

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Speaker 3: not actually on their campus. But if you want a

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Speaker 3: factor in some sort of I don't want to be

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Speaker 3: in this Bowl in Louisiana the day after Christmas? Should

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Speaker 3: the number really be six?

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Speaker 4: I mean, talent does cross seven? That's what I can't

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Speaker 4: figure out. Like I could see it. It just crossed

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Speaker 4: seven so easily. Like even if it got to eight,

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Speaker 4: I'm like, that's still too low. But it's you know,

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Speaker 4: it didn't cross the seven, but BLEU by the seven

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Speaker 4: and it's just sitting at six.

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Speaker 3: What do we do is investors, I'd said, gamblers or

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Speaker 3: investors in the sports market, When do we say, bitcoins

380
00:16:58,880 --> 00:17:00,800
Speaker 3: down to four thousand, it's time to hop in, even

381
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Speaker 3: though I'm not a fan of bitcoin and I don't

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Speaker 3: think it's something long term that's going to be successful.

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Speaker 3: At what number do I buy in? I mean, this

384
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Speaker 3: is a market, people, and Miami's at six? Are you

385
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Speaker 3: kidding me? Now? I know Miami's just won and eight

386
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Speaker 3: in their last nine bowl games, and none of those

387
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Speaker 3: were against a group of five. Their bowl game record

388
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Speaker 3: has been atrocious. I'm not a believer in Danny Noos,

389
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Speaker 3: not a believer in Manny Diaz, although he can't coach defense.

390
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Speaker 3: But you lost to FIU. If they beat FIU, then

391
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Speaker 3: I could see them sleepwalking in here. But the spotlight's

392
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Speaker 3: on them. You lost to Duke, you lost FIU. You

393
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Speaker 3: take a loss here? Is it a fireable offense? In

394
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Speaker 3: many Diaz's first year? Did they make a mistake? Does

395
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Speaker 3: he come in on the hottest of hot seats next year?

396
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Speaker 3: Arkansas and a couple other programs have proved two years

397
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Speaker 3: is enough for me to fire you? So is Manny

398
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Speaker 3: Diaz a one and done? I think I'm gonna be

399
00:17:43,400 --> 00:17:45,320
Speaker 3: on Miami. I think, you know, let me just put

400
00:17:45,359 --> 00:17:46,840
Speaker 3: it all out. I think I'm gonna be on Miami.

401
00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:48,879
Speaker 3: I think I'm gonna be on them at six. The

402
00:17:48,960 --> 00:17:53,159
Speaker 3: numbers outrageous. The talent gap between these two teams is indescribable.

403
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Speaker 3: I'm worried about Jared williamsrowning against Mick Robertson, and Mick

404
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Speaker 3: Robertson is a corner for Ltech that's going to play

405
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Speaker 3: at the next level, going to be something that you

406
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Speaker 3: hear in the NFL a lot. This is a whole.

407
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Speaker 3: Can you stomach it? Can you identify? It? Is the

408
00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,120
Speaker 3: market number? Right? I think you're gonna know really fast

409
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Speaker 3: once this game starts whether we made a huge mistake

410
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Speaker 3: or whether we made the right move. And for me,

411
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Speaker 3: like I said, the big investment that I want first

412
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Speaker 3: half under is first game after Christmas. I don't see

413
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Speaker 3: a lot of offens coming out of Miami. I think

414
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Speaker 3: Miami's defense is good enough to shut down Skip Poltz

415
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Speaker 3: to start off. But as far as the side goes,

416
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Speaker 3: you know, we talked about naming off what we took

417
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Speaker 3: in confidence pools. I took Miami with a confidence rating

418
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Speaker 3: of nineteen. But you know, I think I'm gonna end

419
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Speaker 3: up being a buyer with you. I mean, I don't

420
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Speaker 3: know if we wait for comeback up to seven. I

421
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Speaker 3: don't think it's going to go any further than six.

422
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Speaker 3: But for me, first half under and I'm looking to

423
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Speaker 3: play Miami.

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Speaker 4: One area that Miami really struggled in last year was punting.

425
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Speaker 4: They're one of the worst punting teams I've ever seen.

426
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Speaker 4: I think they were like worse than the nation in

427
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Speaker 4: punt efficiency, but their top twenty five and punting and

428
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Speaker 4: punt return efficiency this year LA Tech one hundred and

429
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Speaker 4: twenty third in punting efficiency and one hundred and twelfth

430
00:18:59,160 --> 00:19:01,440
Speaker 4: in punt return official and see so. And they also

431
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Speaker 4: struggle in kickoffs and kickoff coverage. So if Miami could

432
00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:08,639
Speaker 4: also win the field position here. Louisiana Tech's defense, they

433
00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:11,400
Speaker 4: don't get a ton of pressure, but it's a solid defense.

434
00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:14,160
Speaker 4: And uh, one of the main focuses of their defense

435
00:19:14,200 --> 00:19:17,200
Speaker 4: coming into this year was not giving up explosive plays,

436
00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,240
Speaker 4: which has been a problem in years past. This explosiveness,

437
00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:22,040
Speaker 4: and that's where Miami gets their offense right. They're not

438
00:19:22,080 --> 00:19:24,240
Speaker 4: an efficient offense. They can't run the ball, their offensive

439
00:19:24,280 --> 00:19:27,320
Speaker 4: line struggles, so they they're top twenty in past explosive

440
00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:29,960
Speaker 4: This offense though, so that's what Louisiana Tech and their

441
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:32,280
Speaker 4: three to three five with Robertson. He's real short, so

442
00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,480
Speaker 4: he'll probably play slot. He's quick and short, but he's

443
00:19:34,480 --> 00:19:36,160
Speaker 4: a really good corner in college level, but he'll play

444
00:19:36,160 --> 00:19:38,560
Speaker 4: probably play slot at the next level. So law Tech

445
00:19:38,680 --> 00:19:40,960
Speaker 4: their defense does match up pretty well here, although they

446
00:19:41,000 --> 00:19:43,159
Speaker 4: don't get a ton of pressure, which I think is

447
00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,920
Speaker 4: another reason to back the under here.

448
00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 2: And something else to keep in mind.

449
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:49,520
Speaker 4: If you know, I think I might have to buy

450
00:19:49,600 --> 00:19:53,440
Speaker 4: Miami at this price, but Louisiana Tech is probably a

451
00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:54,600
Speaker 4: you know, I would.

452
00:19:54,359 --> 00:19:56,200
Speaker 2: Never do this because like you can middle yourself.

453
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,200
Speaker 4: But if you hate Miami and you like Louisiana Tech,

454
00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,600
Speaker 4: like it's bet the money line. If Louisiana Tech is

455
00:20:02,640 --> 00:20:05,240
Speaker 4: up like thirteen at the half, bet Louisiana Tech second

456
00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:07,680
Speaker 4: half if you don't have Miami or anything, because if

457
00:20:07,680 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 4: Miami comes out doesn't look interested and LA Tech does

458
00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:12,760
Speaker 4: and is up, Miami should fold it like a cheap

459
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:15,200
Speaker 4: ten in the second half here. If they're I don't

460
00:20:15,200 --> 00:20:17,479
Speaker 4: see this team, you know, coming out with an expired

461
00:20:17,520 --> 00:20:19,360
Speaker 4: effort coming to get back from fourteen and a half.

462
00:20:19,400 --> 00:20:21,480
Speaker 2: It's either they show up or they don't, would you agree?

463
00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, And I think if you have live, I hate

464
00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,159
Speaker 3: to just I hate to punt to live. You know,

465
00:20:26,200 --> 00:20:28,240
Speaker 3: when you and I cut a podcast, people want information

466
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,639
Speaker 3: and they want picks, and especially when they're doing pool

467
00:20:30,640 --> 00:20:32,360
Speaker 3: type stuff and they want to pick. So I will

468
00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:35,520
Speaker 3: tell you from a pregame, I'm in a pool perspective,

469
00:20:35,880 --> 00:20:38,640
Speaker 3: you got to back Miami here. The number is ridiculously crazy.

470
00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:43,080
Speaker 3: I would want to see a driver too, and then

471
00:20:43,240 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 3: place my bet live. But you're you're right from.

472
00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:46,879
Speaker 4: But then it'll be the problem with the risk that

473
00:20:47,080 --> 00:20:48,760
Speaker 4: is that because we think the line is so low

474
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:50,560
Speaker 4: and we think that if Miami shows up, they'll cover,

475
00:20:50,640 --> 00:20:52,680
Speaker 4: so that if Miami gets the ball and then goes

476
00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:54,400
Speaker 4: down and scores to good night, and then you're never

477
00:20:54,440 --> 00:20:55,399
Speaker 4: getting that line again.

478
00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,199
Speaker 3: So I don't think Miami's offensively capable of doing that

479
00:20:58,240 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 3: to anybody, though I know I'm.

480
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:01,280
Speaker 4: Just saying that's the you take and then lower limits

481
00:21:01,280 --> 00:21:02,680
Speaker 4: are just just throwing that out there.

482
00:21:03,080 --> 00:21:04,639
Speaker 2: But we'll have a comprehensive preview.

483
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:08,439
Speaker 4: I mean, we have some time before we're recording this,

484
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:10,440
Speaker 4: you know, before the weekend.

485
00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,639
Speaker 2: We have some time before this game.

486
00:21:13,840 --> 00:21:15,439
Speaker 4: We're going to have some more digging to do for

487
00:21:15,480 --> 00:21:17,320
Speaker 4: our right up, so stay tuned there on Action Nework

488
00:21:17,359 --> 00:21:19,600
Speaker 4: Dot Common Action Up. But an interesting game. And the

489
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 4: other game on Thursday is the Quick Laying Bowl between

490
00:21:24,080 --> 00:21:29,320
Speaker 4: Eastern Michigan and Pitt. Pitt is a eleven point favorite.

491
00:21:29,359 --> 00:21:33,359
Speaker 4: The last time I checked this over under is sitting

492
00:21:33,440 --> 00:21:36,399
Speaker 4: at forty nine. When I look at this game, this

493
00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:38,960
Speaker 4: is another game where I'm saying, you know, the game's

494
00:21:39,000 --> 00:21:41,879
Speaker 4: around Christmas. You have a couple of these Power five

495
00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:45,520
Speaker 4: programs that are playing group of five teams, and you

496
00:21:45,560 --> 00:21:48,640
Speaker 4: do have to worry about their motivation, especially as favorites.

497
00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:51,280
Speaker 4: Pitt is an eleven point favorite here. And look, this

498
00:21:51,359 --> 00:21:54,040
Speaker 4: Pit defense is excellent no matter where you look. There

499
00:21:54,080 --> 00:21:56,359
Speaker 4: were very aggressive defense to get after the quarterback as

500
00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,720
Speaker 4: well as any either fourth and sac rate their third

501
00:21:58,760 --> 00:22:00,159
Speaker 4: and havoc they created.

502
00:22:00,119 --> 00:22:00,760
Speaker 2: Ton of half.

503
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:04,600
Speaker 4: The Eastern Michigan offensive line is pretty good and Glass

504
00:22:04,600 --> 00:22:07,119
Speaker 4: gets good to the ball very quickly, which helps in

505
00:22:07,160 --> 00:22:10,120
Speaker 4: that regard. But it's an offense that can't run the ball.

506
00:22:10,280 --> 00:22:12,440
Speaker 4: But the Pit defense is great against the pass. They're

507
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:14,520
Speaker 4: great everywhere. They give up a bunch of explosive pass

508
00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:16,640
Speaker 4: plays because they play so aggressively, but that's not really

509
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:19,199
Speaker 4: Eastern Michigan's game. It's more of an efficient, quick passing attack.

510
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 4: So I do think the pit defense matches up fairly

511
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:23,760
Speaker 4: well with Eastern Michigan. But on the other side of

512
00:22:23,760 --> 00:22:27,000
Speaker 4: the ball, it's bad on bad. You know, I was

513
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:29,199
Speaker 4: looking to I wanted to fade Eastern Michigan bad in

514
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:32,480
Speaker 4: the bowls because their defense, I think is even worse

515
00:22:32,520 --> 00:22:34,639
Speaker 4: than the numbers show. I mean, this defensive line is

516
00:22:34,680 --> 00:22:36,320
Speaker 4: one of the worst I've ever seen, and you're playing

517
00:22:36,320 --> 00:22:39,080
Speaker 4: against the Macs. It doesn't really show as much, but

518
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:41,200
Speaker 4: you could see it. It was clear as day in

519
00:22:41,240 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 4: a lot of games, even in MAC play. But I said,

520
00:22:43,520 --> 00:22:45,240
Speaker 4: all right, if this team gets a Power five team,

521
00:22:45,760 --> 00:22:47,720
Speaker 4: they're just going to move the ball will because I mean,

522
00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:49,840
Speaker 4: this is a defense that's one hundred and twentyeth and

523
00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 4: rushing success rate, but their defensive line gets pushed around

524
00:22:52,680 --> 00:22:54,480
Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty ninth in line yards, one hundred

525
00:22:54,480 --> 00:22:56,200
Speaker 4: and twenty ninth and stuff rate. I mean, this is

526
00:22:56,880 --> 00:22:58,959
Speaker 4: not Acron or U Mass. This is Eastern Michigan. It's

527
00:22:59,000 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 4: even a bowl. Look across the board. All their defensive

528
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,439
Speaker 4: metrics on the defensive line in their front seven are horrible.

529
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:06,479
Speaker 4: They to replace a ton from their defense last year

530
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,800
Speaker 4: and it's been a disaster on that side of the ball.

531
00:23:09,160 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 4: But then I look at the Pitt offense and is

532
00:23:11,240 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 4: Pitt the offense that's going to take in?

533
00:23:12,560 --> 00:23:13,280
Speaker 2: Then I don't know.

534
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:15,359
Speaker 4: This is an offense that can't run the ball at all.

535
00:23:15,520 --> 00:23:17,240
Speaker 4: You know, they're eighty eighth in line yards, but they're

536
00:23:17,240 --> 00:23:19,760
Speaker 4: they're rushing success outside the top on hundred rushing exposed

537
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:22,800
Speaker 4: its one hundred and twenty eight. But anything on this game.

538
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:24,000
Speaker 4: Curious to get your thoughts.

539
00:23:24,119 --> 00:23:25,800
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to get an under in on this game.

540
00:23:26,040 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 3: I mean I projected at fifty one, so at forty nine,

541
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,399
Speaker 3: you know, we're really kind of right there where the

542
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:33,640
Speaker 3: projection is. But the situation, I mean, you you nailed it.

543
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 3: From the perspective of Eastern Michigan's defense, it is the

544
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,359
Speaker 3: numbers could only get worse if we started integrating FCS teams.

545
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 3: It's that bad. And the problem is Pitt can't run.

546
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,720
Speaker 3: So I do expect an undergame Pitt's defense. You know,

547
00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:47,359
Speaker 3: we've talked about them all year. It's a reason we

548
00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,200
Speaker 3: backed them against Sinstral Florida at number three in the

549
00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:52,159
Speaker 3: nation and the Havoc their fourth and sackerrate. Don't expect

550
00:23:52,200 --> 00:23:57,399
Speaker 3: anything out of Eastern Michigan whatsoever. And you know, and offensively,

551
00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,679
Speaker 3: Pit's just not the kind of team that's going to

552
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:01,639
Speaker 3: run up a whole bunch of points on you. Again,

553
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,480
Speaker 3: this is a post Christmas game. Let's talk about it

554
00:24:04,520 --> 00:24:07,480
Speaker 3: from the perspective of you know, how knock people who

555
00:24:07,480 --> 00:24:10,840
Speaker 3: talk about motivation. But but let's just take a look

556
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,399
Speaker 3: through Pitt's eyes real quick. Pitt at the beginning of

557
00:24:13,440 --> 00:24:16,560
Speaker 3: November thought that they could win the Coastal get their

558
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:18,680
Speaker 3: ass handed to him by Clemson, and go to the

559
00:24:18,760 --> 00:24:21,520
Speaker 3: Orange Bowl. That was being rid about, that was out

560
00:24:21,560 --> 00:24:23,399
Speaker 3: in that was out in the beat writers, that was

561
00:24:23,440 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 3: in the in the newspaper for people that still read newspapers.

562
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,800
Speaker 3: Stuck does Pitt really thought they had a shot to

563
00:24:28,840 --> 00:24:32,120
Speaker 3: go to the Orange Bowl. Once they lost and were

564
00:24:32,160 --> 00:24:33,760
Speaker 3: out of the Coastal race and it was down between

565
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:37,760
Speaker 3: Virginia and Virginia Tech, they were told by the director

566
00:24:37,880 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 3: of the Military Bowl, we would be lucky to invite Pitt.

567
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,800
Speaker 3: So you have to remember, we've discussed about how there's

568
00:24:43,800 --> 00:24:45,639
Speaker 3: Bowl tie ins, about how UAB has to go to

569
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 3: the New Orleans Bowl. There's just certain teams. When you

570
00:24:47,800 --> 00:24:49,800
Speaker 3: lose your conference championship, you get tied into a bowl.

571
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,040
Speaker 3: ACC is different. You get ranked on tiers and the

572
00:24:53,080 --> 00:24:55,400
Speaker 3: bulls have say about who they want to take. It's

573
00:24:55,440 --> 00:24:57,879
Speaker 3: not my record was better than this person's record, so

574
00:24:57,920 --> 00:24:59,480
Speaker 3: I immediately get to go to the pens Tread Bowl.

575
00:24:59,720 --> 00:25:03,840
Speaker 3: It's this crazy Wild West situation where you may go

576
00:25:03,840 --> 00:25:05,760
Speaker 3: to Military, you may go to Pinstripe, you may go

577
00:25:05,800 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 3: to Belk, you may go here, but the last one

578
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:11,280
Speaker 3: on the totem pole in the ACC is this bowl,

579
00:25:11,440 --> 00:25:14,119
Speaker 3: the quick Lane Bowl. So Pitt, who had dreams in

580
00:25:14,119 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 3: the beginning of November of going to Orange mid November,

581
00:25:16,760 --> 00:25:19,240
Speaker 3: thought they were going to Military, who had an outside

582
00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,720
Speaker 3: chance to go for Narduzi to go and play against

583
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:25,080
Speaker 3: his old head coach D'Antonio, and the Pinstripe Bowl ends

584
00:25:25,119 --> 00:25:26,920
Speaker 3: up in the quick Lane Bowl the day after Christmas

585
00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:29,439
Speaker 3: against a MAC team that wasn't even supposed to make

586
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:31,600
Speaker 3: a bowl. Eastern Michigan was the last team selected for

587
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:33,320
Speaker 3: a bowls. Between them and Toledo, someone had to get

588
00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:36,879
Speaker 3: left home. Eastern Michigan should not even be in this bowl.

589
00:25:37,200 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 3: Pitt doesn't want to be in this bowl. It serves

590
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:44,160
Speaker 3: them no recruiting purpose. Nardozzi's completely disinterested in this bowl.

591
00:25:44,240 --> 00:25:47,560
Speaker 3: It shows already. So from the perspective of points going

592
00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:48,960
Speaker 3: up on the board, now we could tell there's a

593
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:51,600
Speaker 3: huge talent this match between the two rosters, and Pitt's

594
00:25:51,600 --> 00:25:53,880
Speaker 3: strength of schedule is sixtieth and Eastern Michigan's one hundred

595
00:25:53,880 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 3: and twenty third. But that doesn't make me think Pitt's

596
00:25:55,800 --> 00:25:57,320
Speaker 3: going to come out and score a whole bunch of points.

597
00:25:57,440 --> 00:25:59,440
Speaker 3: And I certainly don't think Astern Mission's going to try

598
00:25:59,520 --> 00:26:01,159
Speaker 3: their best, but I don't think they're gonna go out

599
00:26:01,200 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 3: and score whole bunch of points. I mean, I think

600
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:08,359
Speaker 3: this is going to be a defensive game versus offensive ineptness,

601
00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,640
Speaker 3: and I think that leads completely to an under here.

602
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 3: As far as the side goes, I projected at thirteen,

603
00:26:13,920 --> 00:26:16,480
Speaker 3: Eastern Michigan's probably going to have the more motivation. I

604
00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:18,800
Speaker 3: don't want anything to do with the side, So I'm

605
00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:19,360
Speaker 3: under all the.

606
00:26:19,280 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 1: Way here, full game fever catch it.

607
00:26:23,480 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I have to do a little more dating, but yeah,

608
00:26:26,680 --> 00:26:29,720
Speaker 4: you make a great case. I'm looking here. I think

609
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:31,800
Speaker 4: there's value in the under and the argument is complete.

610
00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:35,000
Speaker 4: Since so I think we're join you there on Thursday.

611
00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,080
Speaker 4: And like I said before, we will have right up

612
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,840
Speaker 4: for every single Bowl game on the Action Nework apend

613
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 4: Actionnework dot Com. All right, so let's move on to Friday.

614
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,920
Speaker 4: Like I said before, we will cover just the afternoon

615
00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,119
Speaker 4: games today. We'll have a podcast that we record on

616
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:49,760
Speaker 4: Thursday night that will come out on Friday. We'll talk

617
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,560
Speaker 4: about the Friday night games of Oak State, Texas A

618
00:26:52,640 --> 00:26:56,800
Speaker 4: and m USC Iowa Air Force. Washington State, which I'm

619
00:26:56,800 --> 00:27:01,200
Speaker 4: actually really excited for, will cover all of the cheese

620
00:27:01,200 --> 00:27:03,040
Speaker 4: At Bowl. It has the potential to be the opposite

621
00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,720
Speaker 4: of the what most people know. The cheese A Bowl

622
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,400
Speaker 4: can kind of wash it stink off from that TCU game.

623
00:27:08,600 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 3: Stink What are you talking about? It's the greatest book.

624
00:27:11,480 --> 00:27:11,800
Speaker 3: Loved it.

625
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 2: I love the Bowl, trust.

626
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 3: Me tell me this. I just want to know this

627
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:16,520
Speaker 3: because you're an East Coaster and I'm going to be

628
00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:19,119
Speaker 3: out in Pacific time zone for the Cheeza Bowl. That

629
00:27:19,160 --> 00:27:23,280
Speaker 3: thing starts. That thing kicks at ten fifteen Eastern. I mean,

630
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 3: is the world ready for a Washington State Air Force

631
00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 3: game that goes till three o'clock? In the morning with

632
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 3: two hundred points in it. I mean that the Cheesea

633
00:27:30,320 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 3: Bowl is setting itself up with their selections and the

634
00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:35,920
Speaker 3: time slot that it got. This this has the ability

635
00:27:35,920 --> 00:27:37,639
Speaker 3: to be an all timer in my opinion. I know

636
00:27:37,720 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 3: you'll be able to stay up, you always do, but

637
00:27:39,840 --> 00:27:42,000
Speaker 3: the rest of the world on the East Coast get

638
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:43,800
Speaker 3: a nap in before the Cheeza Bowl.

639
00:27:44,000 --> 00:27:45,679
Speaker 4: Yeah, that could be an exciting one. It could be

640
00:27:46,080 --> 00:27:49,159
Speaker 4: some Pac twelve after Dark mixed in with some triple option.

641
00:27:49,359 --> 00:27:50,159
Speaker 2: So we'll get to that.

642
00:27:50,280 --> 00:27:54,640
Speaker 4: We'll get to obviously the college football playoff on December

643
00:27:54,680 --> 00:27:57,240
Speaker 4: twenty eighth, on that Saturday night, so I cannot wait

644
00:27:57,480 --> 00:27:59,639
Speaker 4: for Thursday's episode. We'll cover the Friday night games, but

645
00:27:59,840 --> 00:28:02,680
Speaker 4: we wanted to get the Friday afternoon games out on

646
00:28:02,720 --> 00:28:05,000
Speaker 4: this episode. You know, for the people that we think

647
00:28:05,160 --> 00:28:06,720
Speaker 4: their lines are going to be pretty steady, there's not

648
00:28:06,760 --> 00:28:09,160
Speaker 4: a lot of questions right now. I mean, things can change,

649
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:11,639
Speaker 4: could be suspensions, announcer or something, but we don't think

650
00:28:11,680 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 4: that there's a lot in flux. We're up in the

651
00:28:14,160 --> 00:28:17,159
Speaker 4: air with either one of the two after noon games,

652
00:28:17,200 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 4: and you know, some people can't listen on Friday morning.

653
00:28:20,359 --> 00:28:22,399
Speaker 4: We wanted to make sure that we give them ample

654
00:28:22,480 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 4: enough time for coverage on both of those afternoon bowl games.

655
00:28:26,480 --> 00:28:30,840
Speaker 4: So let's start at noon and the Military Bowl in

656
00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:36,719
Speaker 4: Annapolis between North Carolina and Temple. Temple is currently sitting

657
00:28:36,760 --> 00:28:38,800
Speaker 4: as a four and a half point dog go over

658
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 4: under fifty three. Tell me what you see here?

659
00:28:41,880 --> 00:28:44,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, our projection is a four and a half so

660
00:28:44,720 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 3: really it's spot on. But I'm going to make a

661
00:28:46,760 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 3: case for North Carolina here. I mean, mac Brown is

662
00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:52,920
Speaker 3: just he's running victory laps every day from a recruiting perspective,

663
00:28:53,320 --> 00:28:55,760
Speaker 3: from getting this team to a bowl. He's got an

664
00:28:55,800 --> 00:28:58,120
Speaker 3: extremely young roster. This is one of the youngest rosters

665
00:28:58,120 --> 00:29:00,239
Speaker 3: in all the college football. You know, they have him

666
00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:02,120
Speaker 3: into a bol since twenty sixteen. They took a trip

667
00:29:02,120 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 3: to El Paso and a loss to Stanford. So so

668
00:29:04,680 --> 00:29:06,960
Speaker 3: for some of the upper classmen that have been around

669
00:29:07,000 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 3: that long, this is a really big bowl game for them.

670
00:29:09,640 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 3: They will be heavily motivated against a Temple team that

671
00:29:12,480 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 3: is now being coached by Rod Carey. The old Temple

672
00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,800
Speaker 3: team that we love with Matt Ruhle and Jeff Collins,

673
00:29:18,840 --> 00:29:21,280
Speaker 3: that's gone because now we're on to Rod Carey, who

674
00:29:21,480 --> 00:29:23,680
Speaker 3: I think has covered one Bowl game his entire career

675
00:29:23,680 --> 00:29:25,400
Speaker 3: and he's never won a Bowl game. But then again,

676
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 3: Temple covers every game, right with Temple covers every game.

677
00:29:28,880 --> 00:29:30,760
Speaker 3: But when we get Rod Carry to Bull season, it's

678
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:33,000
Speaker 3: a different story. And we're going up against the greatest

679
00:29:33,040 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 3: second half quarterback of all time in Sam how you know,

680
00:29:36,200 --> 00:29:38,560
Speaker 3: so true freshman there, Sam how This is a bridge

681
00:29:38,720 --> 00:29:41,160
Speaker 3: to next season. Matt Brown's going to use these is

682
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,400
Speaker 3: a gateway to twenty twenty. You know, there's there's some

683
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,360
Speaker 3: turnover on the on the Temple roster, but the North

684
00:29:46,360 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 3: Carolina team, they will all be completely back. It's going

685
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,640
Speaker 3: to put Temple's defensive back seven to a test with

686
00:29:51,680 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 3: Sam Howe. And Temple is good. I mean they're they're

687
00:29:54,200 --> 00:29:57,200
Speaker 3: seventh and pasting success rate. They can't slow down Sam

688
00:29:57,200 --> 00:30:00,120
Speaker 3: Howe for a while. And you know, making a Bull

689
00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:01,800
Speaker 3: is nothing new to Temple. They've been on the big

690
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:05,040
Speaker 3: stage before Shreveport and some other Bulls that they've been in.

691
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 3: You know, I've kind of thrown out the old pass

692
00:30:07,960 --> 00:30:10,000
Speaker 3: records with the Owls, especially with their new head coach.

693
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 3: I think Sam Howe is just going to be something

694
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 3: that Temple hasn't seen this year before, especially their secondary,

695
00:30:16,400 --> 00:30:20,400
Speaker 3: especially their wide receivers. Brown and Newsom have hauled in

696
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,320
Speaker 3: an explosive play in almost every game. I mean multiple

697
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:27,480
Speaker 3: explosive plays. And Temple's defense is ninety six in defending

698
00:30:27,520 --> 00:30:29,800
Speaker 3: the explosive pass. If you just want to go out

699
00:30:29,800 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 3: and look at Dazz Newsom or Diami Brown some of

700
00:30:33,120 --> 00:30:35,600
Speaker 3: their highlights, it's just unbelievable how good these two wide

701
00:30:35,640 --> 00:30:38,280
Speaker 3: receivers are. Brown is second the nation and catches over

702
00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:41,680
Speaker 3: forty yards. He's had ten total this season. Newsom ranks

703
00:30:41,720 --> 00:30:43,640
Speaker 3: top twenty and all receivers in the nation and catches

704
00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:46,480
Speaker 3: over twenty yards. And like I said, Temple is not

705
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,840
Speaker 3: good at past explosiveness. You know, that's something I mean

706
00:30:49,840 --> 00:30:51,560
Speaker 3: that seems to be the reason why Central Florida is

707
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,320
Speaker 3: always able to get away from him in those games.

708
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:55,760
Speaker 3: You know. So even though our Action Network projection is

709
00:30:55,800 --> 00:30:57,400
Speaker 3: spot on, you know, I think a lot of people

710
00:30:57,400 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 3: are going to take Temple's past and roll it into

711
00:30:59,600 --> 00:31:02,040
Speaker 3: this and back them here in this spot. But not

712
00:31:02,120 --> 00:31:04,840
Speaker 3: for me. This North Carolina team's on a roll. I

713
00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 3: love Sam Howe, I love the explosive passing. It's going

714
00:31:07,000 --> 00:31:09,080
Speaker 3: to take advantage of Temple. I'm all about the heels here.

715
00:31:09,680 --> 00:31:12,320
Speaker 4: One thing to mention here is that these two teams are,

716
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 4: from a pace perspective, play fast, pretty fast. Do you

717
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:17,160
Speaker 4: have any thoughts on the total.

718
00:31:17,320 --> 00:31:21,200
Speaker 3: Seconds per play? Temple ranked twenty sixth and North Carolina

719
00:31:21,280 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 3: ranks thirty six, so there's not a lot of letting

720
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,600
Speaker 3: the clockburn before getting up to the ball and snapping

721
00:31:27,640 --> 00:31:30,520
Speaker 3: the ball. From a total perspective, I've got it projected

722
00:31:30,600 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 3: at fifty five, and we're looking at the number right

723
00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:35,479
Speaker 3: now as we record this, sitting at fifty three, so

724
00:31:35,520 --> 00:31:37,440
Speaker 3: it seems like, you know, the under has come down

725
00:31:37,440 --> 00:31:39,640
Speaker 3: from there's a couple of openers at fifty four and

726
00:31:39,680 --> 00:31:41,640
Speaker 3: fifty four and a half, so it looks like it's

727
00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:44,040
Speaker 3: gone down a little bit. But like we said, if

728
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 3: Temple can't defend the explosive pass and both these teams

729
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:49,400
Speaker 3: run at a quicker pace, I won't say lightning pace

730
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:51,120
Speaker 3: because that's like top ten, but these are twenty six

731
00:31:51,160 --> 00:31:53,600
Speaker 3: and thirty six to tempo, you know, then I absolutely

732
00:31:53,600 --> 00:31:56,200
Speaker 3: think that it's worth a look at the over. I mean,

733
00:31:56,240 --> 00:31:59,120
Speaker 3: I projected just a little bit higher. I'm worried about

734
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:01,800
Speaker 3: Temple being eighty five and finishing drives. I've seen them

735
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 3: self destruct in their own territory too many times this season.

736
00:32:05,240 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 3: And then I worry about Temple on defense. They're sixteenth

737
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:10,600
Speaker 3: in the nation and defensive finishing drives, so they're good

738
00:32:10,600 --> 00:32:12,640
Speaker 3: at keeping teams from getting points up on the board.

739
00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 3: So for me, it's kind of a no play because

740
00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 3: I think the number is right, but you're right, the

741
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:17,480
Speaker 3: pace is fast.

742
00:32:17,760 --> 00:32:20,840
Speaker 4: All right, Let's finish things up here with the Pinstripe

743
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:24,240
Speaker 4: Bowl in New York three, twenty eastern on ESPN between

744
00:32:24,280 --> 00:32:27,920
Speaker 4: Michigan State and wake Forest. Michigan State finished the season

745
00:32:27,960 --> 00:32:31,920
Speaker 4: six and six, wake Forest is eight and four. Michigan

746
00:32:31,960 --> 00:32:35,840
Speaker 4: State was just so disappointing all year. You know, they

747
00:32:35,840 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 4: did deal with a lot of injuries. To be fair,

748
00:32:39,240 --> 00:32:41,680
Speaker 4: wake Forest had, you know, some injuries as well, but

749
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:43,360
Speaker 4: it looks like they're going to be a little healthier

750
00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:46,320
Speaker 4: for this Bowl game, which I'll let you touch on.

751
00:32:46,720 --> 00:32:49,440
Speaker 4: You know, one of the things that really jumped out

752
00:32:49,520 --> 00:32:52,040
Speaker 4: to me, Wake Forest can't run the ball at all.

753
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:54,080
Speaker 2: You know, you can't run the ball on Michigan State

754
00:32:54,120 --> 00:32:55,200
Speaker 2: with that defensive front.

755
00:32:55,240 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 4: So it's really important that wake Forest, you know, has

756
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,520
Speaker 4: Newman as Washington, which, like I said, I'll let you

757
00:33:01,560 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 4: touch on playing in this game because they're going to

758
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:07,440
Speaker 4: have to throw it some you can't just without their

759
00:33:07,480 --> 00:33:09,960
Speaker 4: receiving options, they wouldn't have been able to move the

760
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,720
Speaker 4: ball against Michigan State. And then the other side of

761
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:14,200
Speaker 4: the ball, I mean, the Michigan State offense. So what

762
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 4: can you say? It is gross across the board. There

763
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:20,280
Speaker 4: is nothing to like other than they don't give up sacks.

764
00:33:21,560 --> 00:33:23,520
Speaker 4: You know. Then the wake Forest defense isn't great, but

765
00:33:23,560 --> 00:33:26,400
Speaker 4: the Michigan State offense is just so ugly. And then

766
00:33:26,440 --> 00:33:31,080
Speaker 4: special teams that have been horrible, just so bad for

767
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,120
Speaker 4: Michigan State wake Forest and Michigan State plays really slow

768
00:33:34,160 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 4: as well. On the other hand, wake Forest really good

769
00:33:36,720 --> 00:33:41,560
Speaker 4: on special teams and they play fast. So it is

770
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 4: complete contrast in pace and it's an interesting game here.

771
00:33:46,520 --> 00:33:48,560
Speaker 4: Michigan State was around a four to four and a

772
00:33:48,600 --> 00:33:51,200
Speaker 4: half point favorite over under was around forty eight and

773
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,520
Speaker 4: a half. That since come down Michigan State three and

774
00:33:53,520 --> 00:33:56,000
Speaker 4: a half point favorite, now a total up to fifty.

775
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 4: That's what some news on the wake Forest offense side,

776
00:33:58,080 --> 00:33:58,680
Speaker 4: what do you see?

777
00:33:58,800 --> 00:34:00,160
Speaker 3: So I'll tell you, guys, because if you get the

778
00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:01,640
Speaker 3: action appen. I know I'll get a lot of questions

779
00:34:01,680 --> 00:34:03,479
Speaker 3: a day of the game. They'll say, you have Michigan

780
00:34:03,520 --> 00:34:06,280
Speaker 3: State minus three and you have wake Forest plus four

781
00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:07,680
Speaker 3: and a half? How'd you do that? Why did you

782
00:34:07,720 --> 00:34:10,920
Speaker 3: do that well? On open I thought Jamie Newman was

783
00:34:10,960 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 3: going to be out with this game because because of

784
00:34:13,080 --> 00:34:15,880
Speaker 3: an injury, lower body injury, and he was questionable. The

785
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,279
Speaker 3: chance that he didn't play, the Michigan State should have

786
00:34:18,280 --> 00:34:21,080
Speaker 3: been favored by probably six, considering that wake Forest has

787
00:34:21,160 --> 00:34:24,239
Speaker 3: behind him. Scotty Washington hasn't played in a while, but

788
00:34:24,360 --> 00:34:26,160
Speaker 3: it was floating around out there that he was trying

789
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 3: to make a return for the Bowl. While I took

790
00:34:28,120 --> 00:34:30,719
Speaker 3: Michigan State minus three knowing that there could be a

791
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:34,680
Speaker 3: comeback once those player decisions for wake Forest on offense

792
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 3: were made. Those decisions were made, and I went ahead

793
00:34:37,520 --> 00:34:40,920
Speaker 3: and snapped up what I could on wake Forest because

794
00:34:41,280 --> 00:34:44,880
Speaker 3: I mean, it's a great offense, a great passing offense,

795
00:34:45,360 --> 00:34:47,880
Speaker 3: not a good rushing not a good rushing offense whatsoever,

796
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:50,520
Speaker 3: but seventeenth and passing success rate. That's all about Newman,

797
00:34:50,680 --> 00:34:52,759
Speaker 3: It's all about Scotty Washington. You know they have other

798
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:54,680
Speaker 3: injuries a wide receiver, but they're going to be able

799
00:34:54,680 --> 00:34:56,400
Speaker 3: to throw it down the field. Now, Michigan State is

800
00:34:56,440 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 3: fiftieth and defensively in passing success rate, they're pretty stingy

801
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:03,000
Speaker 3: and allowing explosive plays, so you know they're twelfth in havoc,

802
00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:05,319
Speaker 3: first in line yards. Wake Forest is going to do

803
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,479
Speaker 3: nothing on the ground nothing. They're one hundred and twentyth

804
00:35:07,560 --> 00:35:10,719
Speaker 3: rstion success rate. Offensively, they're going to be throwing from

805
00:35:10,760 --> 00:35:13,880
Speaker 3: the second they hop off the train. I'm not sure

806
00:35:13,920 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 3: which which shuttle is it number four? Is it the

807
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 3: number four subway there in New York that gets off

808
00:35:18,000 --> 00:35:21,280
Speaker 3: at Yankee Stadium. The second they get off the subway,

809
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,480
Speaker 3: they're going to be throwing. And I think that kind

810
00:35:24,480 --> 00:35:26,080
Speaker 3: of tends to the pace and why it's kind of

811
00:35:26,080 --> 00:35:27,920
Speaker 3: ticked up a little bit. I project the game at

812
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:30,279
Speaker 3: fifty four and a half, so I think there is

813
00:35:30,320 --> 00:35:32,640
Speaker 3: some value in the over now, knowing that wake Forest

814
00:35:32,680 --> 00:35:34,319
Speaker 3: is going to be as much full strength as they

815
00:35:34,320 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 3: possibly can be with their passing game, I think they're

816
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 3: going to be able to get something downfield on Michigan State.

817
00:35:39,160 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 3: Michigan State offensively, I mean there's a better chance at

818
00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:44,239
Speaker 3: their defense scores points and their offense scores points. It's

819
00:35:44,280 --> 00:35:46,600
Speaker 3: been dreadful, it's been bad. They're good at protecting the

820
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,160
Speaker 3: workie from getting sacked, but one hundred and seventeenth in

821
00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:52,000
Speaker 3: pass explosiveness I mean generally, I mean the workie has

822
00:35:52,040 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 3: a cannon, he can get it down the field, but

823
00:35:53,800 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 3: they're just not able to hit anything. Michigan State's one

824
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:59,280
Speaker 3: hundred and fifteenth in offensive finishing drives. Wake Forest defensively

825
00:35:59,320 --> 00:36:01,920
Speaker 3: is outside the top one hundred and finishing drives, and

826
00:36:01,960 --> 00:36:04,239
Speaker 3: you know, they allow anybody to score. So maybe that's

827
00:36:04,239 --> 00:36:07,000
Speaker 3: the state and grace here, but Michigan State has just

828
00:36:07,000 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 3: been terrible getting points up on the board. Especially they

829
00:36:09,200 --> 00:36:11,240
Speaker 3: haven't been able to convert, you know, when they've gotten

830
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:14,200
Speaker 3: it past the forty. You know, from a special team's perspective,

831
00:36:14,200 --> 00:36:16,520
Speaker 3: Michigan State ranks one hundred and fourteenth and SP plus

832
00:36:16,560 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 3: special teams. Wake Forest certainly has the advantage. They're ranking

833
00:36:19,719 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 3: thirty sixth. Specifically in field goals. Wake Forest is thirteenth

834
00:36:23,440 --> 00:36:26,520
Speaker 3: in field goal efficiency, that is to Michigan State's eighty

835
00:36:26,520 --> 00:36:29,120
Speaker 3: eighth and field goals. So on the side, I think

836
00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:31,120
Speaker 3: that it's line correctly. We make it four and a half.

837
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:34,160
Speaker 3: I think it's gonna float between three, three and a

838
00:36:34,200 --> 00:36:36,600
Speaker 3: half and four up until kick. I think wake force'

839
00:36:36,600 --> 00:36:38,239
Speaker 3: is gonna be able to score points. I think that's

840
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:42,080
Speaker 3: gonna make Michigan State play an increased tempo seconds per play.

841
00:36:42,160 --> 00:36:44,879
Speaker 3: Wake Force is seventh in the nation tempo, and that's

842
00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,000
Speaker 3: exactly what they're gonna do. They're gonna get off the subway,

843
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:49,520
Speaker 3: They're gonna throw downfield, and it's going to force Michigan

844
00:36:49,520 --> 00:36:51,680
Speaker 3: State to do the same. I don't see a lot

845
00:36:51,680 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 3: of long lasting drives, offensive drives of fourteen plays and

846
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:57,799
Speaker 3: a score out of Michigan State. I think they're gonna

847
00:36:57,800 --> 00:36:59,439
Speaker 3: have to start rifling down the field, which Lil workI

848
00:36:59,520 --> 00:37:01,319
Speaker 3: is capable doing. I haven't been able to get it

849
00:37:01,320 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 3: off of big ten play against some of the defenses

850
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:05,440
Speaker 3: they face. So I like the over in this game,

851
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 3: and I might have to hit it at fifty before

852
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:08,879
Speaker 3: it takes up any further. I'd love a forty nine,

853
00:37:09,120 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 3: all right.

854
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,720
Speaker 4: So there you have it for the five bowls between

855
00:37:12,560 --> 00:37:14,839
Speaker 4: tomorrow and Friday afternoon.

856
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:18,200
Speaker 2: Later this week, we'll have don't forget about the voicemails.

857
00:37:18,200 --> 00:37:19,879
Speaker 4: By the way, we're gonna have later in the week

858
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,360
Speaker 4: or the podcast after that comes out Monday. We're going

859
00:37:22,400 --> 00:37:24,399
Speaker 4: to recap a bunch of the voicemails, which I'm sure

860
00:37:24,400 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 4: we'll get more heated and volatile as the BOWLD season progresses,

861
00:37:28,080 --> 00:37:31,320
Speaker 4: especially once the college football playoff comes up. But before

862
00:37:31,320 --> 00:37:36,920
Speaker 4: we get out of here, let's go three and out.

863
00:37:37,239 --> 00:37:40,560
Speaker 1: Let's make it a quick three and out.

864
00:37:41,080 --> 00:37:41,600
Speaker 2: For first down.

865
00:37:41,680 --> 00:37:47,320
Speaker 4: Let's talk about some of the swirling rumors. We're recording

866
00:37:47,360 --> 00:37:49,480
Speaker 4: this early on in the weekend, so you might have

867
00:37:49,520 --> 00:37:52,120
Speaker 4: some updates by the time you're hearing this. But what

868
00:37:52,160 --> 00:37:56,560
Speaker 4: are you hearing in regards to LSU you have suspensions?

869
00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,400
Speaker 4: What is the update you're hearing as of now? And

870
00:37:59,520 --> 00:38:01,040
Speaker 4: the impact the potential impact.

871
00:38:01,320 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, so word comes out about Oklahoma Ronnie Perkins is

872
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 3: going to be the player that we don't know, you know,

873
00:38:08,080 --> 00:38:11,200
Speaker 3: the length of the suspensions, I'm sure. I mean, if

874
00:38:11,239 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 3: Jordan Love can play, what kind of drug test is

875
00:38:15,440 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 3: this right? I mean Ronnie Perkins is I think you

876
00:38:18,600 --> 00:38:20,560
Speaker 3: know top in sacks. He was one of the biggest havoc,

877
00:38:20,640 --> 00:38:22,839
Speaker 3: biggest chaos makers on the defense, especially in the Big

878
00:38:22,880 --> 00:38:25,080
Speaker 3: Twelve championship game. So it's a big loss for them

879
00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:27,239
Speaker 3: and trying to disrupt what Joe Burrow is doing. I

880
00:38:27,280 --> 00:38:30,320
Speaker 3: think the question needs to be asked, can Oklahoma disrupt

881
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:33,239
Speaker 3: what Joe Burrow is doing? I don't think whether how

882
00:38:33,239 --> 00:38:35,399
Speaker 3: many defensive players you have or not. I'm not sure

883
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:38,440
Speaker 3: what defense outside of maybe Ohio State Chase Young and

884
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:41,280
Speaker 3: maybe Clems his defense, who is disrupting what Joe Burrow

885
00:38:41,360 --> 00:38:43,480
Speaker 3: is doing. Who's going to get to him? So you've

886
00:38:43,480 --> 00:38:45,680
Speaker 3: lost one defensive player. I mean, Alex Grinch is a

887
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:48,759
Speaker 3: speed defense. They send everybody to the quarterback. I'm not

888
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:51,080
Speaker 3: sure it should have had an effect on the point spread.

889
00:38:51,160 --> 00:38:53,480
Speaker 3: It did go up to fourteen and then it came

890
00:38:53,520 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 3: back down to thirteen, which means these players would have

891
00:38:56,080 --> 00:38:58,440
Speaker 3: been named the six players, which the biggest of them

892
00:38:58,440 --> 00:39:00,880
Speaker 3: being Ronnie Perkins. On the defense wasn't really worth that

893
00:39:00,960 --> 00:39:02,680
Speaker 3: one point move and it was a good chance for

894
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 3: everybody to get on Oklahoma at fourteen. I don't think

895
00:39:06,080 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 3: our perspective of the game changes whatsoever. So if you

896
00:39:09,000 --> 00:39:11,960
Speaker 3: could get fourteen with Oklahoma, that's the play. So I

897
00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:14,000
Speaker 3: still think thirteen is too high. We've all agreed that

898
00:39:14,200 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 3: eight and a half should be about the number, and

899
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 3: I think once the public gets closer to this game,

900
00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:20,240
Speaker 3: I think it's just going to be all LSU money.

901
00:39:20,400 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 3: I can't see a lot of OU money coming in.

902
00:39:22,360 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 3: But it's not Jalen Hurts, it's not Ceedee Lamb, and

903
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:26,040
Speaker 3: it's not key members on the offensive line to protect

904
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:26,760
Speaker 3: Jalen Hurts.

905
00:39:26,920 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 4: Fair enough, Yeah, I took a piece of fourteen because

906
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 4: the News was hoping to get fourteen and a half.

907
00:39:31,400 --> 00:39:35,600
Speaker 4: Let's for second down. Let's talk about next week around

908
00:39:35,600 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 4: New Year's Day, because I want to get this out

909
00:39:38,680 --> 00:39:42,440
Speaker 4: there just very quick. Couple thoughts on the key numbers.

910
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:44,600
Speaker 4: So you have if you look at New Year's Eve,

911
00:39:44,680 --> 00:39:46,560
Speaker 4: New Year's Day, you know, by the time you listen

912
00:39:46,600 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 4: to this, it might it may have moved, but there's

913
00:39:48,600 --> 00:39:50,279
Speaker 4: gonna be it's gonna be around these key numbers. You

914
00:39:50,320 --> 00:39:52,200
Speaker 4: have Navy at minus two and a half New Year's

915
00:39:52,239 --> 00:39:56,080
Speaker 4: e Wyoming minus seven New Year's Eve, Alabama minus seven

916
00:39:56,200 --> 00:39:58,799
Speaker 4: seven and a half, New Year's Day, Alburn minus seven,

917
00:39:58,880 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 4: seven and a half.

918
00:39:59,440 --> 00:39:59,960
Speaker 2: New Year's Day.

919
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:02,680
Speaker 4: You look across the board, you know all of these

920
00:40:02,680 --> 00:40:04,319
Speaker 4: games on New Year's Eve and New Year's they are

921
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:08,200
Speaker 4: sitting either right on or right around a key number. Utah,

922
00:40:08,320 --> 00:40:11,800
Speaker 4: Texas seven and a half. Baylor, Georgia's crossed the seven

923
00:40:11,840 --> 00:40:14,440
Speaker 4: on some Georgia news. I just want to get your

924
00:40:14,480 --> 00:40:17,080
Speaker 4: thoughts on one or two games that you think you're

925
00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:19,480
Speaker 4: you feel good about, that you think will potentially move

926
00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 4: and some what you should get now or if you know,

927
00:40:21,600 --> 00:40:24,040
Speaker 4: if it crosses this you should hit this team. Maybe

928
00:40:24,080 --> 00:40:26,240
Speaker 4: just give your thoughts one or two games for next

929
00:40:26,239 --> 00:40:28,400
Speaker 4: week for those looking ahead and watching the markets.

930
00:40:28,600 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 3: I project Alabama and Michigan at five, So even though

931
00:40:31,719 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 3: it might get up to seven and a half, I

932
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:35,000
Speaker 3: think you can. I think you're going to be able

933
00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 3: to get Michigan at seven and a half if that's

934
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:39,319
Speaker 3: what you want to get if you want to back Alabama.

935
00:40:39,400 --> 00:40:41,560
Speaker 3: I don't see it coming down, coming coming back, So

936
00:40:41,719 --> 00:40:43,320
Speaker 3: I think you might want to go ahead and scoop

937
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:45,120
Speaker 3: up to seven. I think you and Iron I mean,

938
00:40:45,120 --> 00:40:47,160
Speaker 3: we're in a complete disagreement about Utah and Texas and

939
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 3: how that's going to unfold. I think Utah minus seven

940
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:51,960
Speaker 3: is there's a there's a last call going on with

941
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:54,000
Speaker 3: this number. We've been at seven and a half and eight.

942
00:40:54,160 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 3: I project this game at ten s P plus projects

943
00:40:57,000 --> 00:40:59,759
Speaker 3: a game at eleven and a half. I'm not comfortable

944
00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 3: with Tom Herman dumping almost his entire staff and demoting

945
00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:07,279
Speaker 3: his offensive coordinator at quarterback coach. I think the number

946
00:41:07,360 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 3: is going to go back up. I think if you

947
00:41:09,040 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 3: want to back Texas, wait, if you want to back Utah,

948
00:41:11,520 --> 00:41:13,319
Speaker 3: which I am, you're gonna want to take it now.

949
00:41:13,320 --> 00:41:15,880
Speaker 3: At seven, we talked about Navy how they're probably going

950
00:41:15,920 --> 00:41:18,359
Speaker 3: to get a bump because of what happened with Army.

951
00:41:18,560 --> 00:41:21,799
Speaker 3: I make this number minus three for Kansas State, and

952
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,120
Speaker 3: I know that I am completely different from a Sagarin

953
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:26,960
Speaker 3: and an S and P plus ranking. So if I'm

954
00:41:27,000 --> 00:41:29,080
Speaker 3: off this much, I think Navy's going to get a

955
00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:31,400
Speaker 3: bump and get up to three at certain points, because

956
00:41:31,400 --> 00:41:33,279
Speaker 3: once the public comes in and starts having their say

957
00:41:33,280 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 3: in these games, they're going to reference back to what

958
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:40,279
Speaker 3: happened with Army. You know, Kansas State to me, has

959
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:42,520
Speaker 3: plenty of statistical advantages. They're going to be able to

960
00:41:42,560 --> 00:41:44,239
Speaker 3: go through the air and take advantage of NYVE much

961
00:41:44,239 --> 00:41:47,600
Speaker 3: like Notre Dame did. But you know, from the perspective

962
00:41:47,640 --> 00:41:49,480
Speaker 3: of where I think the number is going to move,

963
00:41:49,880 --> 00:41:51,400
Speaker 3: I think Navy's the one that's going to get it

964
00:41:51,480 --> 00:41:52,920
Speaker 3: up to the three, So I think I'd wait if

965
00:41:52,960 --> 00:41:54,840
Speaker 3: I wanted Kansas State. I think as far as the

966
00:41:54,880 --> 00:41:58,200
Speaker 3: Sugar Bowl goes, I think there's a huge amount of

967
00:41:58,200 --> 00:42:02,360
Speaker 3: thinking out there that Georgia may be caught again in

968
00:42:02,400 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 3: the Sugar Bowl not interested and the fact that they

969
00:42:05,040 --> 00:42:07,279
Speaker 3: don't have the offense to pull off this big of

970
00:42:07,320 --> 00:42:09,200
Speaker 3: a point spread. So I think that's why you've seen

971
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:10,840
Speaker 3: the market come down to a six and a half.

972
00:42:11,000 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 3: But at the same time, we don't know the status

973
00:42:12,520 --> 00:42:15,080
Speaker 3: at Charlie Brewer. Reports have now surfaced that Matt Rule

974
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,240
Speaker 3: is easily at the top of the list for the Giants.

975
00:42:17,600 --> 00:42:20,759
Speaker 3: He told what he told Dallas Morning News where I

976
00:42:20,760 --> 00:42:22,880
Speaker 3: read it, he said, here's what I would need to

977
00:42:22,880 --> 00:42:25,440
Speaker 3: be an NFL coach. I would need one hundred percent

978
00:42:25,560 --> 00:42:28,040
Speaker 3: complete control. That's where they take to get me out

979
00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:30,439
Speaker 3: of Baylor. I'm not leaving Baylor and Baylor through and through,

980
00:42:30,640 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 3: and if an NFL team wants me, I have to

981
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,520
Speaker 3: have complete control, not just x as and o's overplayer

982
00:42:34,560 --> 00:42:36,920
Speaker 3: personnel and everything else. So I'm not sure if it's

983
00:42:36,960 --> 00:42:38,399
Speaker 3: in the cards for the New York Giants to pull

984
00:42:38,400 --> 00:42:40,560
Speaker 3: that off of Matt Rule, but there's a chance for Baylor.

985
00:42:40,600 --> 00:42:42,439
Speaker 3: Here there's no Charlie Brewer and there's no Matt rule.

986
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:44,799
Speaker 3: So if you like Georgia in this game, which I

987
00:42:44,920 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 3: kind of do, I don't know if I'm in a

988
00:42:46,160 --> 00:42:47,879
Speaker 3: money line parlay and with something else or if I'm

989
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,200
Speaker 3: just going to swallow the points because they still have

990
00:42:50,239 --> 00:42:53,280
Speaker 3: problems hitting targets, hitting wide receivers. But there's a chances

991
00:42:53,280 --> 00:42:55,560
Speaker 3: game doesn't that Brewer or Matt rule. So if you

992
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:57,360
Speaker 3: want to buy Georgia, I say get it now you

993
00:42:57,400 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 3: want to buy Baylor, I'd probably wait to see if

994
00:43:00,000 --> 00:43:01,839
Speaker 3: they're going to have a coach in Charlie Brewer, because

995
00:43:01,880 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 3: I don't imagine this game is gonna get both six.

996
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:05,880
Speaker 4: There you have it, before we get out of your

997
00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:07,400
Speaker 4: third dad thoughts on Monday night football.

998
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:09,400
Speaker 2: Look, this line's getting out of hand. It's almost becoming

999
00:43:09,480 --> 00:43:11,600
Speaker 2: so trendy sharp to fade.

1000
00:43:11,400 --> 00:43:14,280
Speaker 4: The Packers because you know some of their underlying metrics

1001
00:43:14,280 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 4: and turnover and their run defense, and some of the

1002
00:43:16,080 --> 00:43:18,239
Speaker 4: are exposive to pass, and their schedule. There's a lot

1003
00:43:18,239 --> 00:43:21,120
Speaker 4: of you know, analytics or even just to look basic

1004
00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:24,440
Speaker 4: yards for play. The Packers are overvalued, which I don't

1005
00:43:24,480 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 4: necessarily disagree but this team just comes out, they get

1006
00:43:26,480 --> 00:43:28,560
Speaker 4: a lead, they still have Aaron Rodgers, their defense will

1007
00:43:28,560 --> 00:43:31,480
Speaker 4: create some havoc and they're just finding ways to win games.

1008
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:34,239
Speaker 4: And this line without Dalvin Cook for the Vikings is

1009
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:35,920
Speaker 4: getting out of control if it gets the six off

1010
00:43:35,920 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 4: the look at the Packers, but I usually like this

1011
00:43:37,960 --> 00:43:40,440
Speaker 4: a huge game in the division and for playoff seating

1012
00:43:40,600 --> 00:43:43,440
Speaker 4: with my Packers future which I'm obligated to mention can

1013
00:43:43,480 --> 00:43:45,640
Speaker 4: contractually and actually forgot it on the last podcast and

1014
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:48,120
Speaker 4: have to pay a fine. Is you know, the Packers

1015
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:49,480
Speaker 4: if they went out, they get a two seat and

1016
00:43:49,520 --> 00:43:51,560
Speaker 4: they host the Bears and Mitch Bortles next week. So

1017
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:53,879
Speaker 4: this game is huge for them as well and their

1018
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:55,760
Speaker 4: chances set going to the super Bowl.

1019
00:43:56,000 --> 00:43:56,799
Speaker 2: It's gonna be tough.

1020
00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:59,600
Speaker 4: But actually, look over here, I do think that the

1021
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:01,600
Speaker 4: Viking So I mean the Packers have two tackles that

1022
00:44:01,680 --> 00:44:04,640
Speaker 4: can contain the Vikings edge rush, which is one of

1023
00:44:04,680 --> 00:44:09,000
Speaker 4: their strengths with Griffin and Hunter. But where they you know,

1024
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 4: and if they're not getting a ton of pressure off

1025
00:44:10,719 --> 00:44:14,160
Speaker 4: the edge, the Vikings corners are very vulnerable. It's the

1026
00:44:14,200 --> 00:44:16,040
Speaker 4: weak spot of their team, and I think Rogers can

1027
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:17,800
Speaker 4: take advantage on the other side.

1028
00:44:17,600 --> 00:44:18,000
Speaker 2: Of the ball.

1029
00:44:18,160 --> 00:44:20,399
Speaker 4: Cook's not playing, but I do think the Vikings will

1030
00:44:20,400 --> 00:44:23,320
Speaker 4: still still have some success running the ball up the middle,

1031
00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:26,280
Speaker 4: which is where the Packers are really weak, particularly a linebacker,

1032
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 4: and they like to play a lot of heavy dimes,

1033
00:44:27,680 --> 00:44:30,719
Speaker 4: so they don't have a heavy package in there to

1034
00:44:30,760 --> 00:44:33,760
Speaker 4: defend power running, and the Vikings can do that very well.

1035
00:44:34,040 --> 00:44:35,640
Speaker 4: But I also think without Cook, they're going to throw

1036
00:44:35,680 --> 00:44:37,320
Speaker 4: it more, and the Packers give up a lot of

1037
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:40,640
Speaker 4: explosive passing plays. And with Feeling now presumably healthy, it

1038
00:44:40,640 --> 00:44:42,279
Speaker 4: was an extra day of rest, he got some run

1039
00:44:42,360 --> 00:44:43,879
Speaker 4: last week, didn't need to play a ton They wanted

1040
00:44:43,880 --> 00:44:45,439
Speaker 4: to keep him healthy in the game was out of hand,

1041
00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,440
Speaker 4: so him and Diggs I think could has some success downfield,

1042
00:44:48,440 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 4: and the Vikings might throw a little more without Cook,

1043
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 4: So I think this game might be higher scoring than

1044
00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:53,479
Speaker 4: most things.

1045
00:44:53,560 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 2: And you know, just keep in mind that Rogers and

1046
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:56,160
Speaker 2: Endo division.

1047
00:44:56,520 --> 00:45:00,880
Speaker 4: Rogers just finds ways to cover so fading him and

1048
00:45:00,960 --> 00:45:03,800
Speaker 4: as a dog, he's ridiculous against the spread, So beware

1049
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 4: if you're gonna bet this line, which is starting to

1050
00:45:05,640 --> 00:45:06,600
Speaker 4: get a little out of hand.

1051
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:09,240
Speaker 2: All right, Thanks for joining me, Colin. Thanks everyone, for listening.

1052
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 2: Great review.

1053
00:45:10,200 --> 00:45:13,720
Speaker 4: Subscribe Tone frid Tone Enemy leave a review mentioned Monday Bulls.

1054
00:45:13,800 --> 00:45:16,640
Speaker 4: We're in there running for a prize that we will

1055
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:19,880
Speaker 4: hand out after Bowl season for a couple of people

1056
00:45:20,200 --> 00:45:22,799
Speaker 4: that I already have from prior contests.

1057
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 2: That I have to notify for those. So thanks again

1058
00:45:24,800 --> 00:45:26,040
Speaker 2: for listening. You guys are the best.

1059
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:29,280
Speaker 4: We'll be back on Friday morning with just a mega

1060
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:34,200
Speaker 4: loaded episode for Friday night games. The Culture will playoff

1061
00:45:34,239 --> 00:45:35,680
Speaker 4: all the weekend games through Monday.

1062
00:45:35,960 --> 00:45:39,120
Speaker 1: If you hate ball games, go listen to NTR.

1063
00:45:39,480 --> 00:45:42,200
Speaker 2: So thanks again for listening. We'll catch you later. Cheers,

1064
00:45:42,440 --> 00:45:45,320
Speaker 2: peace out. It's the most.

1065
00:45:46,160 --> 00:46:05,120
Speaker 4: Time, Just the most time, call the most time. We're

1066
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:05,960
Speaker 4: finished talking