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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Boomberg

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Speaker 1: Day Bacot podcast, available every morning on Apple, Spotify or

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Speaker 1: wherever you listen. It's Wednesday, the sixth of November here

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Speaker 1: in London. I'm Caroline Hepkif.

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Speaker 2: And I'm Stephen Carroll. Donald Trump tells supporters he will

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Speaker 2: deliver a Golden Age as he closes in on victory

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Speaker 2: over Kamala Harris in the US presidential race.

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Speaker 1: The Republican candidate has been declared the winner in Pennsylvania,

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, and Georgia. As world leaders offer Trump their congratulations.

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Speaker 2: The dollar, Wall Street futures, and treasury yields surge on

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Speaker 2: Trump's rising presidential prospects as the Republicans also secure a

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Speaker 2: majority in the Senate.

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Speaker 1: And emerging market currencies tumble on concerns over Trump's trade policies.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is on the cusp of winning a second

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Speaker 1: term as US president. The Republican candidate has claimed victory

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Speaker 1: after TV Networks projected he won the pivotal swing state

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Speaker 1: of Pennsylvania. Donald Trump currently has two hundred and sixty

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Speaker 1: seven Electoral College votes, while Kamala Harris is on two

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Speaker 1: hundred and twenty four. The Republicans are also projected to

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Speaker 1: have won control of the US Senate, the dollar stop futures,

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Speaker 1: and bond yields of surgeon reaction, Donald Trump has been

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Speaker 1: speaking in the last couple of hours to support us

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Speaker 1: in West Palm Beach in Florida.

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Speaker 3: We're going to fix everything about our country, and we've

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Speaker 3: made history for a reason tonight that the reason is

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Speaker 3: going to be just there. It's now clear that we've

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Speaker 3: achieved the most incredible political there.

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Speaker 4: Look what happened is this.

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Speaker 1: Crazy Trump has not yet been declared the winner by

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Speaker 1: most news outlets. However, he has been projected to win Pennsylvania, Georgia,

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Speaker 1: and North Carolina, key states, puncturing Democrats hopes and all

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Speaker 1: but Democratic nominee Kamala Harris's hopes of mounting any comeback.

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Speaker 2: Let's just bring you up to date on some of

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Speaker 2: the states where results haven't been called yet. In Wisconsin,

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Speaker 2: we are looking at with ninety three percent of votes counted,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump leading fifty one percent to forty seven percent

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Speaker 2: for Kamala Harris.

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Speaker 1: And in Michigan, with eighty six percent of votes counted,

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump is that projected to have won fifty one

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Speaker 1: point four percent, Kamala Harris is on forty six point

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Speaker 1: nine percent of the Michigan vote.

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Speaker 2: And in Arizona with fifty three percent of votes counted,

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump leading with fifty point eight percent of the

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Speaker 2: votes counted, Kamala Harris on forty eight point three percent.

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Speaker 1: Now, if the election does end in a Trump win,

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Speaker 1: it will have major implications for the global economy. The

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Speaker 1: Republican has pledged to improve the US economy and also

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Speaker 1: levy a twenty percent tariff on all imports. Trump told

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Speaker 1: his supporters that he was going to bring down taxes.

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Speaker 3: We're going to be down dead. We're going to be

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Speaker 3: reducing texas we have. We can do things that nobody

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Speaker 3: else can do. Nobody else is going to be able

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Speaker 3: to do it. China doesn't have what we have. Nobody

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Speaker 3: has what we have.

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, speaking there at his results event in Florida.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Economics says that a Trump white House would likely

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Speaker 1: spend more and could raise borrowing costs all around the world.

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Speaker 2: Republicans have gained control of the US SENUS Right now,

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Speaker 2: Democrats are forty two seats, the Republicans fifty one, with

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Speaker 2: the remaining seats left to be called. Democrats faced a

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Speaker 2: series of difficult races, defending three seats in state Donald

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Speaker 2: Trump won in both twenty sixteen and twenty twenty. Here's

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Speaker 2: Bin Brooks Joe Matthew with the breakdown of how the

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Speaker 2: Republicans did us.

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Speaker 4: This is not a big surprise after the motion that

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Speaker 4: we have seen so far in the states tonight, all

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Speaker 4: they needed were two. We told you that in the outset.

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Speaker 4: Pretty easy to do the math here. It came from

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Speaker 4: West Virginia, Jim Justice winning the Senate seat there held

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Speaker 4: by Joe Manchin. In Ohio, Sherid Brown losing to Republican

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Speaker 4: Bernie Moreno, that's what we have here. That's how tight

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Speaker 4: the margin is.

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Speaker 2: Joe Matthew points out that no Senate Republicans work for

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Speaker 2: reelection in states that Joe Biden carried in twenty twenty.

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Speaker 2: In the House, the Democrats currently have one hundred and

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Speaker 2: seventy three seats, the Republicans one hundred and ninety three

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Speaker 2: with counting.

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Speaker 1: Ongoing markets are reacting to Donald Trump's rising presidential prospects.

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Speaker 1: At to just after nine am London time, the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: doll Spot index is stronger one point two percent, with

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Speaker 1: the green back surging against all major currency pairs S

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Speaker 1: and P five hundred. Emily futures are climbing two point

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Speaker 1: two percent. Ten year US treasury yields have surged now

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Speaker 1: fourteen basis points are at four forty one. Many of

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Speaker 1: vesters see Trump's pro growth stance on industrial policy, corporate

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Speaker 1: tax cuts and tariffs, boosting stocks and fueling inflation and

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Speaker 1: therefore keeping interest rates elevated. Bloomberg's Pretty Gupta says the

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Speaker 1: dollar move has international implications.

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Speaker 5: What I think is shocking here is that the stock

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Speaker 5: market is rallying in the US from the future's perspective,

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Speaker 5: in line with the dollar. And that's an inverse correlation

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Speaker 5: that really matters for international investors because the more expensive

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Speaker 5: the dollar gets, the harder it is to access the

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Speaker 5: S and P five hundred. And that's why this move

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Speaker 5: and the dollar is so crucial.

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg's Critty good to speaking there. The Mexican pay so

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Speaker 1: the emerging market currency most sensitive to a Donald Trump win,

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Speaker 1: has tumbled this morning. So to is the EU and

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Speaker 1: the yen, along with Eastern European currencies. Meanwhile, all prices

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Speaker 1: are down one and a half percent, Gold is down

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Speaker 1: seven tenths of one percent, and Bitcoin, again a favored

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Speaker 1: Trump trade, has surged by six point six percent this hour.

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Speaker 2: World leaders have been reacting to Trump's likely victory, the

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Speaker 2: UK's Prime Minister Chris Starmer saying that he looks forward

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Speaker 2: to working with Trump in the years ahead and that

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Speaker 2: he knows the UK US special relationship will continue to prosper.

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Speaker 2: French President Emmanuel Macron congratulated Trump, adding ready to work

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Speaker 2: together as we've done for years. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin

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Speaker 2: Nettan Yaho hailed Trump for what he called history's greatest comeback,

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Speaker 2: while Hungary's Prime Minister Victor Orban said Trump was on

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Speaker 2: the way to a beautiful victory. Ukraine's President of Vlasimir

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Speaker 2: Zelenski has said that he looks forward to an era

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Speaker 2: of strong United States under Donald Trump, saying he continues

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Speaker 2: to rely on strong bipartisan report supports rather for Ukraine.

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Speaker 1: And those are our top stories, all of the details

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Speaker 1: around potentially Donald Trump on the cusp of winning a

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Speaker 1: second term as US president. Now let's bring in for

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Speaker 1: a discussion on this our senior writer Stephanie Baker. Good morning,

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Speaker 1: it's been quite an extraordinary night, hasn't it. We weren't

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Speaker 1: expecting to get the results so quickly. Donald Trump coming

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Speaker 1: out this morning addressing his cheering supporters, what do you

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Speaker 1: make of the results so far? What did the polls

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Speaker 1: get so wrong?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 6: So, technically this is not a polling error. All the

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Speaker 6: polls were saying it was a dead heat, but most

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Speaker 6: of the races were within the margin of error. Having

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Speaker 6: said that, there were some polls that got it very wrong. Michigan,

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Speaker 6: for one, Trump has won by a much wider margin

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Speaker 6: than any polls I had seen. There were some recent

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Speaker 6: polls just in the past week, the New York Times

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Speaker 6: Siena poll, the Marist NPR poll that showed Kamala with

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Speaker 6: momentum pulling ahead, including in the battleground states. So clearly

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Speaker 6: the polling got some of this wrong, and it was

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Speaker 6: and it ended up more like twenty twenty than twenty

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Speaker 6: twenty two the midterms. I think there were some people

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Speaker 6: that had thought that the polls were not capturing the

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Speaker 6: amount of anger amongst women voters about the abortion ruling

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Speaker 6: from the Supreme Court, and that they would turn out

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Speaker 6: in huge numbers for Kamala Harris that didn't pan out,

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Speaker 6: and what we got instead was polls continued to undercount

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Speaker 6: Trump supporters, and I think that's been a historic problem.

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Speaker 6: We saw it in twenty six, we saw it in

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Speaker 6: twenty twenty. Twenty twenty two was not the model for

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Speaker 6: this one.

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Speaker 2: And just on Michigan as the votes there, we've just

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Speaker 2: got eighty seven percent of votes counted and Donald Trump

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Speaker 2: leading fifty one percent of forty seven percent counting. So

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Speaker 2: I'm going there. We haven't called that race just yet,

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Speaker 2: but I do want to look at kind of the

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Speaker 2: picture outside of the presidential race as well. Because you've

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Speaker 2: got Republicans down in control of the Senate, the House,

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Speaker 2: we're still waiting for the full picture to emerge. What

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Speaker 2: does that look like for a political landscape from January.

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Speaker 6: I think a lot really depends on the House, and

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Speaker 6: that's too early to call. I think it's too tight.

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Speaker 6: I think some Democrats think they still have a chance

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Speaker 6: of holding on and regaining control there. But I think

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Speaker 6: if the Republicans win the House, that means Trump has

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Speaker 6: a clean sweep House, Senate, White House, and a very

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Speaker 6: friendly Supreme Court, so there's no friction, there's nothing stopping

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Speaker 6: him from doing what he wants to do.

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Speaker 1: On the Bloomberg terminal. This morning, we have all of

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Speaker 1: our reporters who've been staying up overnight shipping in and

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Speaker 1: putting their points across, and one of them that I

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Speaker 1: thought was interesting was a line about how Trump supporters

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Speaker 1: many are now jostling for the thousands of positions that

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Speaker 1: are going to be open, and former President Trump talking

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Speaker 1: about delivering on the promises that he made during the

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Speaker 1: election campaign. What do you think the key policies are

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Speaker 1: going to be from Trump to bring in if he

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Speaker 1: does win the White House. What do you think the

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Speaker 1: most speedy policy enactment enactments will be.

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Speaker 6: Well, remember, he has promised some major economic changes, sweeping tariffs.

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Speaker 6: There's some debate as to how much power he has

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Speaker 6: to do that unilaterally. Technically under the Constitution, Congress has

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Speaker 6: that ability, but he has executive authority under various other

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Speaker 6: statutes to do that if he wants to. Then there

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Speaker 6: is his promise to begin mass deportations on day one,

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Speaker 6: and I think he does have a fair degree of

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Speaker 6: you know, latitude to go ahead and do that. Isolationist

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Speaker 6: foreign policy, he has vowed to end the war between

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Speaker 6: Ukraine and Russia in a day, and you know, I

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Speaker 6: expect he will go ahead and do that. It looks

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Speaker 6: very unlikely that Ukraine will continue to get aid from

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Speaker 6: the United States with a Republican dominated Senate and a

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Speaker 6: White House controlled by Trump and JD. Vance, who have

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Speaker 6: been very negative about support for Ukraine. So I think

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Speaker 6: it looks both very isolationist and frankly inflationary.

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Speaker 2: Stephanie, you've written a book on punishing Putin, on the

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Speaker 2: economic war that has taken place since the full scale

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Speaker 2: invasion of Ukraine began. I wonder how you view a

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Speaker 2: Donald Trump in the White House and relationships with Russia.

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Speaker 6: I think Trump is not a good It's not a

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Speaker 6: good move for Ukraine. I think this is going to

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Speaker 6: be a very, very shaky time for Ukraine. Europe will

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Speaker 6: have to step up in a big way, and I

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Speaker 6: think the biggest problem is that they do not have

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Speaker 6: the defense industrial base to continue to provide military aid

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Speaker 6: to Ukraine. And I don't see even if they step

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Speaker 6: up financially, I don't see Europe raising enough finance and

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Speaker 6: then placing orders with US defense manufacturers. I don't think

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Speaker 6: that's politically tenable. So I think it's going to be

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Speaker 6: very difficult for Volodimir Zelensky to hold on if he

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Speaker 6: is forced to do a deal where he seedes control

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Speaker 6: of territory to Russia and you know, they declare ceasefire

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Speaker 6: and to militarized zone. I think he will be under

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Speaker 6: enormous political pressure domestically, and I'm not sure he can

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Speaker 6: survive that.

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Speaker 1: Okay. So that's the point on Ukraine. Just sort of

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Speaker 1: going back to the election results overall, what do you

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Speaker 1: think the messages were from Trump the worked with US

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Speaker 1: voters or messages that failed from Harris to hit home

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Speaker 1: with US voters.

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Speaker 6: I think the main takeaway from this election is that

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Speaker 6: the polls got this one right. Seventy five percent of

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Speaker 6: Americans thought the US was on the wrong track. And

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Speaker 6: when Trump posed this question, are you better off now

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Speaker 6: than you were four years ago? Everyone said no. Even

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Speaker 6: though Biden had managed to roll out an economic recovery,

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Speaker 6: a so called soft landing, and inflation had come down.

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Speaker 6: The fact of the matter is people go to the

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Speaker 6: supermarkets and they're facing much higher bills because of post

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Speaker 6: COVID inflation, and there's a real desire to go back

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Speaker 6: to those pre COVID times. And the ultimate irony is

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Speaker 6: that a lot of the Trump policies that he's outlined

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Speaker 6: are actually going to be adding to inflation rather than

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Speaker 6: controlling inflation. I haven't seen anything he's done that would

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Speaker 6: tried to temper inflation, unlike some of the proposals that

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Speaker 6: Harris had made.

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Speaker 2: Okay, Stephanie, thank you so much for joining us that

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Speaker 2: Stephanie Baker Bloomberg senior writer there, and if you're just

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Speaker 2: joining us to remind you that Donald Trump has claimed

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Speaker 2: victory in the US presidential race, but as of yet,

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Speaker 2: he only has two hundred and sixty seven of the

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Speaker 2: two hundred and seventy electoral College votes needed to secure

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Speaker 2: the presidency. But if he wins one more of the

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Speaker 2: states that are still yet to be called, he will

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Speaker 2: have crossed that threshold. Kamala Harris has two hundred and

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Speaker 2: twenty four electoral College votes.

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Speaker 1: And the reaction in markets is to push up US

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Speaker 1: dot features. But even European stocks are actually gaining one

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Speaker 1: point nine percent this morning. So in order to discuss,

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Speaker 1: let's bring in Bloomberg TV Anka Quitti Gupta for the

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Speaker 1: latest on the market reaction. Quitty stocks are up, the

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Speaker 1: dollars up, and you've seen US yields also up very significantly.

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Speaker 1: Is this just a reaction to having a quick potential

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Speaker 1: result of what looks to be a fairly quick result.

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Speaker 1: Is this backing full of the Trump trade.

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Speaker 5: Let's do it active a class by asked class, because

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Speaker 5: this is one of those moments where they're not all

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Speaker 5: trading with the same narrative. I'll start with the equities

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Speaker 5: picture here and just put some numbers on this rally

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Speaker 5: that we're seeing now. Futures are up two point six percent,

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Speaker 5: SMP mini futures are up over two percent. I'll give

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Speaker 5: you an even bigger number, look at small cap feutures.

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Speaker 5: So Russell two thousand up a whopping five point three

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Speaker 5: percent inter day trade. That is the biggest move to

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Speaker 5: the upside in a single inter day period you have

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Speaker 5: seen ever in history. That's how big of a move

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Speaker 5: small caps are seeing right now. Again, anything can shake

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Speaker 5: out going into the US open, but this is something

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Speaker 5: that has to do with positioning ahead of the election.

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Speaker 5: So this was a question of we need an element

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Speaker 5: of certainty. We got one fairly quickly, to your point,

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Speaker 5: So there is a little bit of a sib of relief.

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Speaker 5: There's also one that suggests Donald Trump will have from

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Speaker 5: a policy perspective, a more markets friendly approach, less regulation,

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Speaker 5: more tax cuts. That is all positive in terms of resentiment.

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Speaker 5: And then lastly, this idea that there was kind of

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Speaker 5: this idea that there would be a little bit of

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Speaker 5: sell off into the election and then a big rally anyway,

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Speaker 5: So positioning was very much a part of it, regardless

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Speaker 5: of which candidate.

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Speaker 2: One gritty is that a broad sweep that we're seeing

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Speaker 2: in terms of the stocks that are and sectors that

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Speaker 2: are called hire. We're looking at Tesla. I just noted

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Speaker 2: that at the top of the hour that the pre

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Speaker 2: market that share jumped twelve percent in pre market moves.

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Speaker 2: But I'm wondering because we are seeing a fairly broad

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Speaker 2: markets lifted in Europe, but not all sectors.

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Speaker 5: Correct. I'll start with the Tesla story, because you're right,

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Speaker 5: it is up a whopping thirteen percent in the pre market. Remember,

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Speaker 5: in Trump's initial remarks that he had made at the

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Speaker 5: West Palm Beach Convention Center, he mentioned Tesla, he mentioned Starlink,

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Speaker 5: he mentioned X. This is a big deal because Starlink specifically,

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Speaker 5: of course, for those who aren't familiar the satellite program,

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Speaker 5: and that really enables communications in war zones, but has

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Speaker 5: also helped with hurricane relief. Was under some pressure in

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Speaker 5: terms of funding from the Biden administration, so this was

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Speaker 5: a big concern. Not to mention Tesla itself has been

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Speaker 5: a big beneficiary of Biden and subsidies as well, some

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Speaker 5: of the EB subsidies as well, but there was friction

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Speaker 5: in that relationship. So this is something that you're seeing

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Speaker 5: as of course, one that there has been this endorsement

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Speaker 5: between and friendship between Elon Musk and Donald Trump. But

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Speaker 5: there's also the fact that he specifically mentioned Starlink, he

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Speaker 5: mentioned X, he mentioned the several different kind of parts

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Speaker 5: of Elon Musk's businesses that is showing up in Tesla,

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Speaker 5: like if it's the only part of the business that's

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Speaker 5: publicly publicly traded, to my knowledge, hire by about thirteen percent.

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Speaker 5: But when you mention other sectors as well, and I

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Speaker 5: think when you look at some of the moves that

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Speaker 5: you're seeing pre market, the initial reaction is to look

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Speaker 5: at some of the sectors that are more exposed to

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Speaker 5: the south, aka his base, and I'm thinking of things

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Speaker 5: like energy infrastructure for example, that's where you're expected to

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Speaker 5: see less regulation. But you're seeing that in consumer products

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Speaker 5: as well. If you're thinking less tax cuts, that's more

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Speaker 5: disposable income, that's more helpful. Even retail companies as well,

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Speaker 5: they will rally. If you look at kind of the

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Speaker 5: downside movers in this morning's early trade, you're seeing it

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Speaker 5: really show up in a lot of technology, a little

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Speaker 5: bit of biotech. So that defensive trade is really one

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Speaker 5: that's kind of being unwound from the last couple of months.

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Speaker 1: Really yeah, And I think it's fascinating that when you

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Speaker 1: look at the worst performing stocks in Europe you get

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Speaker 1: a little hint of the kind of reflection of what

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Speaker 1: you say about the Russell's small cap stocks in the US.

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Speaker 1: Maybe they're rallying because they think that a Trump White

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Speaker 1: House will bring more business into the US, or will

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Speaker 1: help domestic businesses to grow, or stead and vest as

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Speaker 1: wind systems obviously benefiting from the switch to clean energy.

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Speaker 1: Ap Muller Musk big in the trade in trade and

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Speaker 1: shipping obviously also down significantly. Volvo cars again down. Those

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Speaker 1: are some hints about even though the European stock market

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Speaker 1: is up, that maybe there are some concerns there.

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Speaker 5: Absolutely, and the clean energy conversation is one that the

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Speaker 5: Biden administration has pushed quite heavily and is a bigger

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Speaker 5: investment thesis in Europe than it is in the United

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Speaker 5: States because it is expensive to invest in renewables, more

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Speaker 5: expensive in the United States than Europe. I'll bring your

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Speaker 5: attention to the banks very quickly if I can, because

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Speaker 5: that's where I think you're seeing a really interesting dynamic.

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Speaker 5: If you look at the underperformers in Europe this morning,

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Speaker 5: alongside some of the renewable companies, you point out, it's

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Speaker 5: the banks. And the reason for this is because of

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Speaker 5: the yield move. So you're seeing American banks trade higher

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Speaker 5: in the US because again yields are going higher in

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Speaker 5: the treasury market. But in Europe there is a massive

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Speaker 5: bid for German boons, there's a massive bid for European

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Speaker 5: debt because there's an assumption that this will accelerate rate

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Speaker 5: cuts from the ECB and the BOE. That's showing up

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Speaker 5: in the underperformance of the bank.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg Daybreak Europe, your morning brief on the

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