1 00:00:03,440 --> 00:00:06,800 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg Surveillance. We want to get the credit. 2 00:00:06,840 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: They have come a long way from where they were 3 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:10,520 Speaker 1: in the year of the nineties when they didn't even 4 00:00:10,560 --> 00:00:14,080 Speaker 1: communicate anything to the market. Begin remains the most important 5 00:00:14,120 --> 00:00:17,600 Speaker 1: single Asian currency, that together with Aussie which I think 6 00:00:17,840 --> 00:00:21,119 Speaker 1: is the property for all of Asia's growth ultimately. And 7 00:00:21,320 --> 00:00:23,200 Speaker 1: we still are going to have a crisis at some point. 8 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:25,120 Speaker 1: It'll be a big one. And that's where the new 9 00:00:25,120 --> 00:00:27,639 Speaker 1: tools and dot Frank the title to the resolution Authority, 10 00:00:27,680 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 1: that's where they come in. Bloomberg Surveillance your link to 11 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:35,160 Speaker 1: the world of economics, finance, and investment on Bloomberg Radio. 12 00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:39,040 Speaker 1: Good morning everyone, Mario Draggy shakes markets. He moves markets 13 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:42,839 Speaker 1: and it is risk on Futures up twenty JABB futures 14 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:46,239 Speaker 1: up one sixty three, the Euro weaker. What good coverage 15 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:49,240 Speaker 1: this morning. Will continue that into this eight o'clock our 16 00:00:49,520 --> 00:00:53,160 Speaker 1: bonus round, joining us Dennis Gartman, who has a few opinions, 17 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: as we love to have Dennis Gartment on the the 18 00:00:55,800 --> 00:00:58,320 Speaker 1: hate me the hate mail meter lights up like a 19 00:00:58,520 --> 00:01:03,440 Speaker 1: like a candle when we have Artman on to is well, 20 00:01:03,480 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: they love Dennis, they hate me, right we'll get Dennis 21 00:01:06,040 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 1: Gartman here in a moment. Bloomberg Surveillance this morning brunched 22 00:01:10,440 --> 00:01:15,480 Speaker 1: by Cone Resnick Accounting Tax Advisory. As economic policy changes, 23 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 1: so do business decisions. Speak to the experts at Cone 24 00:01:20,040 --> 00:01:23,680 Speaker 1: residuc for the forward thinking advice you need. Find out 25 00:01:23,680 --> 00:01:26,520 Speaker 1: more at Cone Resnik dot com. C O h N 26 00:01:27,120 --> 00:01:30,320 Speaker 1: R easy n I c K cone Resnec dot com. 27 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:32,960 Speaker 1: Dennis Gartman joins us out. Dennis, I want to put 28 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:37,320 Speaker 1: this in the in the context of the title of 29 00:01:37,440 --> 00:01:40,319 Speaker 1: Larry Lindsay's new book, You Give It a Massive Rave Review, 30 00:01:40,760 --> 00:01:45,560 Speaker 1: Conspiracies of the Ruling Class. Mario Draggy is part of 31 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:51,120 Speaker 1: the ruling class. What's his conspiracy to jump start his Europe? 32 00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:57,120 Speaker 1: He has leaked full hog into into the market this morning. 33 00:01:57,640 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 1: In case people haven't heard yet, what they have done 34 00:02:00,400 --> 00:02:03,680 Speaker 1: in Europe this morning is cut all three of the 35 00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:07,520 Speaker 1: base rates in UH by the ECB. More importantly, have 36 00:02:07,760 --> 00:02:14,040 Speaker 1: raised the sixty billion euro uh quantitative easing each month 37 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,880 Speaker 1: to eighty billion, And I think probably most importantly, have 38 00:02:18,320 --> 00:02:21,840 Speaker 1: allowed the purchases of corporate debt for the simple reason 39 00:02:21,880 --> 00:02:24,200 Speaker 1: that they're running out of sovereign debt that they can 40 00:02:24,320 --> 00:02:26,760 Speaker 1: buy and they have no choice but to expand reserves 41 00:02:27,080 --> 00:02:30,200 Speaker 1: by buying corporate debt. The Euro is getting slammed as 42 00:02:30,280 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 1: we talk, trading thirty five right now, down from one 43 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:36,520 Speaker 1: o nine, actually trading one ten and one time earlier. 44 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:38,799 Speaker 1: This hasn't found a bid. I mean, is where we're 45 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 1: going to? Dennis and Mike McKee might jump in here 46 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:45,280 Speaker 1: with Mr Gartman. Neil Dutta just publishes March and April 47 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:48,440 Speaker 1: are a no go for the US Central Bank, while 48 00:02:48,560 --> 00:02:52,680 Speaker 1: June is a live possibility. Michael Dennis. The real question 49 00:02:52,760 --> 00:02:57,359 Speaker 1: is obviously Mario dragging went uh full Monty as Brunello 50 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,200 Speaker 1: Rosa said, or kitchen sink is Jamie McGhee or and 51 00:03:00,240 --> 00:03:03,679 Speaker 1: Jeff Black have both tweeted this morning. So you get 52 00:03:03,760 --> 00:03:06,639 Speaker 1: this reaction in the markets, But does it last? Is 53 00:03:06,680 --> 00:03:08,799 Speaker 1: there going to be enough stimulus so the market is 54 00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 1: going to see enough in the package over the next 55 00:03:11,600 --> 00:03:16,200 Speaker 1: couple of weeks to continue pushing down on the Euro. Yes, 56 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,359 Speaker 1: of course they will. I think Jogging has made it 57 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:21,280 Speaker 1: abundantly clear if this is not the last movie he's 58 00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:23,799 Speaker 1: going to make. He has thrown in completely with those 59 00:03:23,840 --> 00:03:27,359 Speaker 1: who are expansionary, I think justifiably. So you still have 60 00:03:28,520 --> 00:03:32,840 Speaker 1: unemployment rates among youths in Spain, Italy, across all of Europe. 61 00:03:32,880 --> 00:03:34,359 Speaker 1: I don't think he had any choice. I think he's 62 00:03:34,360 --> 00:03:36,680 Speaker 1: done exactly what he needed to do. It will be, 63 00:03:37,040 --> 00:03:39,560 Speaker 1: or should be, highly inflationary over a period of time, 64 00:03:40,040 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 1: but the deflationary forces are still so extant that he 65 00:03:42,880 --> 00:03:45,520 Speaker 1: had no choice other than to go full monthy. I 66 00:03:45,600 --> 00:03:48,040 Speaker 1: think he's on the right thing, as others may argue, 67 00:03:48,440 --> 00:03:51,280 Speaker 1: but it will continue to be I think manifestly bearerss 68 00:03:51,280 --> 00:03:54,200 Speaker 1: of the euro par is on its way. Do we 69 00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:59,480 Speaker 1: see contraction in spreads among the Eurozone countries? Is this 70 00:03:59,600 --> 00:04:05,120 Speaker 1: going to reach out to the periphery? As to that 71 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:08,640 Speaker 1: that question, I'm not quite sure. I understand, well, a 72 00:04:08,720 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 1: lot of what the ECB has done hasn't helped the 73 00:04:11,560 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: peripheral countries in the year Zone as much because their 74 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:18,640 Speaker 1: rates are higher. Yes, okay, I understand. Yeah, of course 75 00:04:18,680 --> 00:04:20,440 Speaker 1: it should narrow those spreads. It has to, and it 76 00:04:20,600 --> 00:04:23,680 Speaker 1: it really would be mathematically impossible to do otherwise. So 77 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:26,240 Speaker 1: the answer is, yes, it will. I think it is 78 00:04:26,279 --> 00:04:28,200 Speaker 1: going to be highly inflationary. I think is what he 79 00:04:28,240 --> 00:04:30,520 Speaker 1: should have done. I'm I'm I'm full in with what 80 00:04:30,600 --> 00:04:33,000 Speaker 1: he's done today. Those on the far light may take 81 00:04:33,040 --> 00:04:34,919 Speaker 1: me to task Ford, but I don't think he had 82 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:36,640 Speaker 1: any cho Okay, so Dennis, you go down to your 83 00:04:36,720 --> 00:04:39,840 Speaker 1: North Carolina state, you speak to the economics Honors program 84 00:04:39,920 --> 00:04:42,960 Speaker 1: at the Pool Management Hall and all that. None of 85 00:04:43,040 --> 00:04:45,880 Speaker 1: this is in the textbooks you are, Michael McKee, study 86 00:04:46,240 --> 00:04:50,080 Speaker 1: none of it. It is Quie. I'm sorry, folks, Rubini 87 00:04:50,360 --> 00:04:53,599 Speaker 1: absolutely nailed this, and I'm not even gonna pretend to fake. 88 00:04:53,680 --> 00:04:57,480 Speaker 1: Is a wonderful accent. Queie one quee too. Where the 89 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,800 Speaker 1: hell are we in the count of quee's this? This 90 00:05:01,040 --> 00:05:03,080 Speaker 1: is three, We're going to four, We'll go to twelve, 91 00:05:03,120 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 1: we'll go to fourteen. What is the price of that? 92 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:07,720 Speaker 1: I knew you were gonna say that. What's the price 93 00:05:07,800 --> 00:05:10,960 Speaker 1: of that? Mr? I'm not sure. I don't know. They 94 00:05:11,080 --> 00:05:14,440 Speaker 1: hope it shall be an inflation. Everybody wants to see 95 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:17,760 Speaker 1: an inflation of two or more, whether it's the ECB, 96 00:05:17,920 --> 00:05:22,880 Speaker 1: whether it's the Bank of Japan, whether it's the getting 97 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 1: in Dennis. I got Olivia Blanchard on the program this 98 00:05:25,240 --> 00:05:28,120 Speaker 1: morning saying, look, there's no fire in house. There is 99 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:32,160 Speaker 1: economic growth. There is there is real economy, signs of 100 00:05:32,320 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: good in the US and in Europe. What's the y 101 00:05:36,320 --> 00:05:40,480 Speaker 1: here to jump start the macro position other than the 102 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,360 Speaker 1: jump started for the conspiracy of the ruling class. Well, 103 00:05:44,400 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 1: I'm not sure that I agree that there that there 104 00:05:46,440 --> 00:05:49,080 Speaker 1: are signs in Europe of economic strength. There are signs 105 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: in the United States, perhaps of modest, slow, laborious one 106 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:56,720 Speaker 1: to two GDP growth, But I'm not sure that I 107 00:05:56,800 --> 00:05:59,040 Speaker 1: see the same things in Europe. And I think that 108 00:05:59,200 --> 00:06:02,360 Speaker 1: drug has actually done the correct thing. If you look 109 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: at the unemployment rates that exist, especially among the youth 110 00:06:05,600 --> 00:06:09,360 Speaker 1: in in in in Europe, there is an ample supply 111 00:06:09,480 --> 00:06:12,160 Speaker 1: of of of labor to be gotten. There is no 112 00:06:12,440 --> 00:06:16,520 Speaker 1: inflation to be found. I think he had no choice. Now, 113 00:06:17,279 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 1: he had no choice. He did the right thing. It 114 00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:24,080 Speaker 1: is affecting markets, But is it going to produce growth 115 00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:28,920 Speaker 1: and inflation? Will it work? That's another question for another time. 116 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: Isn't it One would hope that it works. Certainly, he 117 00:06:32,040 --> 00:06:35,320 Speaker 1: hopes that it works. Certainly, everybody expects that it should 118 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:38,280 Speaker 1: engender in inflation at some point in the future. Certainly, 119 00:06:38,440 --> 00:06:42,160 Speaker 1: most certainly most economists would suspect that that kind of 120 00:06:42,279 --> 00:06:45,320 Speaker 1: helicopter drop of money will result in some sort of 121 00:06:45,400 --> 00:06:48,839 Speaker 1: economic growth. Time only shall tell. But could he should 122 00:06:48,880 --> 00:06:51,440 Speaker 1: he Let's let's do what the lawyers say and go 123 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,239 Speaker 1: reductive at a certain let's go the other direction. Should 124 00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 1: he have tightened monetary policy, Well, of course not. His 125 00:06:57,279 --> 00:06:59,400 Speaker 1: only course of action was to do what he's done today. 126 00:06:59,800 --> 00:07:02,600 Speaker 1: And this is just this is que three on its 127 00:07:02,640 --> 00:07:04,800 Speaker 1: way to QUEI fourteen. Whether we like it or not, 128 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:07,200 Speaker 1: that's the reality. And as traders, that's how we have 129 00:07:07,320 --> 00:07:11,920 Speaker 1: to deal. Does this make you long of stocks? You 130 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 1: really have no choice. This this this should have to 131 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:16,280 Speaker 1: make you long of stocks. What it does make me 132 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:18,920 Speaker 1: is short of the euro and long of gold. That 133 00:07:19,280 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 1: that that I, without equivocation, is where I wish to be. 134 00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:25,320 Speaker 1: Should it make you long of stocks, you really do. 135 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,640 Speaker 1: Clearly you don't wish to be short of them in 136 00:07:27,760 --> 00:07:30,640 Speaker 1: this environment, and probably you should be long with them. 137 00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:35,680 Speaker 1: I can't imagine doing Gartman's job or anybody like Gartman 138 00:07:35,800 --> 00:07:39,080 Speaker 1: right now out just you know so quickly what it 139 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:41,800 Speaker 1: means um at this point, what does it mean in 140 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:46,440 Speaker 1: other parts of the world. I think it means that 141 00:07:46,520 --> 00:07:48,680 Speaker 1: the bank in Japan has has no choice but to 142 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,200 Speaker 1: follow up the bank exactly he has has done. They 143 00:07:51,400 --> 00:07:54,120 Speaker 1: don't have any choice. I mean, it's a quey war almost. 144 00:07:54,280 --> 00:07:56,720 Speaker 1: I mean, what is the correlation of our banks right now? 145 00:07:57,040 --> 00:08:00,000 Speaker 1: They've all they're all I'm sorry, every bank has reacting 146 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: off every other one. Right, Yes, maybe maybe it is 147 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:07,920 Speaker 1: a problem of great communications. In the twenty five years 148 00:08:07,960 --> 00:08:11,720 Speaker 1: ago when I first, when I had begun to get 149 00:08:11,800 --> 00:08:14,400 Speaker 1: somewhat smart in this business, having started forty years ago, 150 00:08:14,920 --> 00:08:17,280 Speaker 1: even then you would not have known what the ECB 151 00:08:17,440 --> 00:08:20,160 Speaker 1: had done for several days. Now we have to make 152 00:08:20,240 --> 00:08:22,240 Speaker 1: decisions as to what the ECB has done in the 153 00:08:22,280 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 1: course of ten minutes and decide what it means for 154 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:26,840 Speaker 1: the next four months. The best I can say is 155 00:08:26,960 --> 00:08:29,680 Speaker 1: drawing upon history, what they've done today is just the 156 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 1: first another step in a long step of pot processes. 157 00:08:33,400 --> 00:08:35,679 Speaker 1: Just joining us, Dennis Gartment the Garment letter. Dennis, we've 158 00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:38,200 Speaker 1: only got you for two blocks today, not three. Let 159 00:08:38,240 --> 00:08:40,400 Speaker 1: me get to gold, which is so important. You keep 160 00:08:40,440 --> 00:08:44,920 Speaker 1: your gold view in those currencies I mean Euro moving 161 00:08:44,960 --> 00:08:47,880 Speaker 1: to parody that gives you some support. Here update us 162 00:08:47,920 --> 00:08:51,199 Speaker 1: on the Gartment gold call. I have been long of 163 00:08:51,280 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: gold and yen denominated terms for over two years, and 164 00:08:54,440 --> 00:08:56,959 Speaker 1: it's been a wonderful trade. If you have been long 165 00:08:57,040 --> 00:09:00,280 Speaker 1: of golden dollar terms for two years, uh year in 166 00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:03,160 Speaker 1: the poorhouse, you don't feel all that good. I've been 167 00:09:03,240 --> 00:09:06,760 Speaker 1: long of gold in euro denominated terms for about almost 168 00:09:06,800 --> 00:09:09,800 Speaker 1: a year. That feels great. It feels better this morning 169 00:09:09,840 --> 00:09:12,719 Speaker 1: than it did before. But it's making new highs. I 170 00:09:12,840 --> 00:09:16,240 Speaker 1: see no reason to change. The fundamentals have gotten stronger, 171 00:09:16,360 --> 00:09:18,240 Speaker 1: not weaker, in the course of the last ten minutes. 172 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 1: The technicals are getting stronger, not weaker, in the course 173 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:23,079 Speaker 1: of the last ten minutes. And what I find interesting 174 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:25,280 Speaker 1: is few people wish to join me on the same trade. 175 00:09:26,520 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 1: What's the best trade right now for you long golden 176 00:09:31,360 --> 00:09:34,199 Speaker 1: euro terms? As of what's especially with what's happened in 177 00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:36,040 Speaker 1: the last ten minutes with the e c B, it's 178 00:09:36,080 --> 00:09:38,240 Speaker 1: been a great position. I see no reason to change. 179 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,079 Speaker 1: And the only thing I wish to do is by 180 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:43,080 Speaker 1: is to do more. I'll pay a lot more attention 181 00:09:43,120 --> 00:09:46,080 Speaker 1: to what gold is doing in dollar terms, uh perhaps 182 00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:48,280 Speaker 1: in the next several days and a half. In the past, 183 00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:50,600 Speaker 1: and if you were able to get gold back above 184 00:09:50,679 --> 00:09:53,880 Speaker 1: twelve fifty five or so in dollars, my propensity to 185 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,760 Speaker 1: add to my euro gold trade and my end gold 186 00:09:56,800 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: trade become even stronger. Let's come back with Dennis Gartman 187 00:10:00,040 --> 00:10:02,599 Speaker 1: right up, as we are over market reaction off of 188 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: Major Mike. Did you expect this? Uh, nobody expected him 189 00:10:06,960 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: to do as much as he did. Lots of kitchens 190 00:10:10,520 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 1: sinc photographs out on Twitter this morning. Yeah. Some people 191 00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:17,280 Speaker 1: thought one, some people thought the other. But instead he 192 00:10:17,400 --> 00:10:20,280 Speaker 1: chooses the kitchen sink. This is important, whether you agree 193 00:10:20,320 --> 00:10:22,839 Speaker 1: or disagree. Dennis Gartman will continue with us. We will 194 00:10:22,920 --> 00:10:26,679 Speaker 1: have a spirited conversation on the US market. Maybe will 195 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:29,880 Speaker 1: also touch on politics as well once in a while. 196 00:10:30,040 --> 00:10:33,520 Speaker 1: Mr Gartman writes about US politics on the back end 197 00:10:33,559 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: of this coveted note. Futures up, seventeen down, futures up 198 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:41,600 Speaker 1: one Gartman's euro linked to gold one O eight sixty 199 00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:45,079 Speaker 1: two one oh sixty two in a good hundred and 200 00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:49,200 Speaker 1: thirty eight pips as well. West Texas Intermediat thirty three. 201 00:10:52,360 --> 00:10:53,839 Speaker 1: Time now to check in with Michael Barr and get 202 00:10:53,840 --> 00:10:56,400 Speaker 1: the latest world in national headlines. Michael, Mike, Tom, thank 203 00:10:56,440 --> 00:10:59,000 Speaker 1: you very much. It's a memory stick that is believed 204 00:10:59,040 --> 00:11:02,319 Speaker 1: to contain the real names and telephone numbers of Islamic 205 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:06,640 Speaker 1: state fighters. Germany's federal police say they are evaluating files 206 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,680 Speaker 1: containing personal data on members of the Islamic State group. 207 00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:13,640 Speaker 1: Britain Sky News reports had obtained about twenty two thousand 208 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:17,200 Speaker 1: Islamic State files on the stick stolen from the head 209 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 1: of Islamic States Internal Security Police by a disillusioned former fighter. 210 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 1: Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have been trying to make 211 00:11:25,520 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: the case that they would be better presidential choices for 212 00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 1: American Hispanics. Two Democratic presidential candidates on voting records on immigration. 213 00:11:35,200 --> 00:11:37,680 Speaker 1: We're a major focus of last night's debate in Miami. 214 00:11:37,880 --> 00:11:41,560 Speaker 1: The Republican presidential candidates will debate tonight in Miami as well. 215 00:11:41,920 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: Global News twenty four hours a day, powered by our 216 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,880 Speaker 1: twenty four hundred journalists more than a hundred fifty news 217 00:11:47,920 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 1: bureaus from around the world. Now Michael Barr, Mike, Tom, Michael, 218 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:54,240 Speaker 1: thanks so much, stay with us in twenty minutes. What 219 00:11:54,559 --> 00:11:59,359 Speaker 1: was to be important is now of global impact drugs, 220 00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:02,640 Speaker 1: Prescott Frids. We'll have that an interpretation for you on 221 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:07,240 Speaker 1: Bloomberg surveillance. 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