WEBVTT - Arm CEO Rene Haas Talks Stock Tumble

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<v Speaker 1>Now one stock that's going in the other direction is

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<v Speaker 1>the chit design firm ARM. I think we're down around

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen percent as it stands. They smashed it in the

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<v Speaker 1>quarter gone relative to street expectations. But the story around ARM,

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<v Speaker 1>as we bring up the stock here down more than

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<v Speaker 1>fifteen percent, is simply that they resisted the urge to

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<v Speaker 1>boost their outlook, and that raises some questions. The question

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<v Speaker 1>should be answered. Now we have ARMED CEO Renee has

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<v Speaker 1>standing by joining us here on Bloomberg Technology. I mean, Renne,

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<v Speaker 1>good morning to you. That that is the story. What

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<v Speaker 1>were the factors behind you not boosting the outlook? What

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<v Speaker 1>were the factors that made you cautious. Maybe it's specific

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<v Speaker 1>end markets, maybe it's your view of the macro situation

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<v Speaker 1>around the world.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, thank you, Ed, and a great question to kick

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<v Speaker 2>off with. The way I think about it is as follows.

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<v Speaker 2>This is our fourth quarter as a public company. It

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<v Speaker 2>is our fourth quarter of record revenues. As you said,

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<v Speaker 2>we smashed at last quarter over nine hundred and thirty

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<v Speaker 2>million dollars of revenue. So super happy about the quarter.

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<v Speaker 2>Last quarter. Ninety days ago, we raised the annual guidance

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<v Speaker 2>about eight to ten percent, So when we looked at

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<v Speaker 2>the outlook for a year ninety days later, coming off

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<v Speaker 2>a great quarter, we just didn't feel the need to

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<v Speaker 2>raise expectations again. So that's really just the backdrop. It's

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<v Speaker 2>quite simple. We raise a guidance for the year last quarter,

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<v Speaker 2>record quarter this quarter, and we're maintaining At this point.

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<v Speaker 1>Rennie, is there anything you can tell me about specific

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<v Speaker 1>markets that you serve where you see some cause or

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<v Speaker 1>some hesitation, but you're also able to see whatever it

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<v Speaker 1>is holding you back working itself out.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. Remember ed that we have two components to our business.

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<v Speaker 2>We have the licensing business and the royalty business. The

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<v Speaker 2>licensing business, which is really the forward indicator of demand

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<v Speaker 2>for armed technology, never been stronger. The licensing revenue year

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<v Speaker 2>on year up seventy percent. What's driving that, that's demand

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<v Speaker 2>for building new complex chips, more demand for arm more

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<v Speaker 2>compute capability, so that is a harborger of forward type

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<v Speaker 2>of demand. Royalties were also up a year on year

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<v Speaker 2>almost twenty percent, largely driven by smartphone growth where units

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<v Speaker 2>have been modest, but our new version nine is driving

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<v Speaker 2>high royalty growth. So in general, we're very very optimistic

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<v Speaker 2>about the long term outlook, particularly because of the licensing

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<v Speaker 2>activity being so strong.

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<v Speaker 1>One of the areas you know that I cover a

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<v Speaker 1>bit more deeply is automotive technology, and I'm just trying

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<v Speaker 1>to draw parallels with different names out there understand what's happening.

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<v Speaker 1>Mobili told us this morning, for example, that particularly in China,

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<v Speaker 1>but globally, some of their customers just stop making orders

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<v Speaker 1>for the second half of this year. I understand that.

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<v Speaker 1>From Arm's perspective, it's different, right, you think about the

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<v Speaker 1>pipeline of a specific chip that you're involved in the

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<v Speaker 1>design of. It's much further afield, longer term. But do

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<v Speaker 1>you see in that industry in particular any sort of

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<v Speaker 1>either cyclical process happening or some specific weakness.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I think the way we think about the automotive

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<v Speaker 2>market is we are growing faster in terms of demand

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<v Speaker 2>for our technology than the market itself. So we were

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<v Speaker 2>actually up double digits last quarter in automotive royalties, and

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<v Speaker 2>that's really a function of a gaining market share. But

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<v Speaker 2>more importantly, the quality of the technology that's going in

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<v Speaker 2>is much higher. These are more complex compute platform devices.

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<v Speaker 2>They run a lot of software, whether it's for ibiev autonomous,

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<v Speaker 2>so We're very, very bullish about the long term automotive outlook.

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<v Speaker 2>The near term inventory issues that go back and forth.

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<v Speaker 2>We haven't been impacted by that so much because, as

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<v Speaker 2>I said, we're gaining share and the complexity of our

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<v Speaker 2>own technology being used just keeps going up.

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<v Speaker 1>Rennie, I don't know if you'd agree, but I think

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<v Speaker 1>the common theme of this earning season is capital expenditures

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<v Speaker 1>relating to infrastructure for AI, and my question simply is

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<v Speaker 1>what direct benefit does ARM get from any of that

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<v Speaker 1>process or investment cycle.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, thank you for the question. We get a bit

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<v Speaker 2>of a dual benefit. There is a lot of CAPEX

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<v Speaker 2>going into overall infrastructure scale out, there's general purpose compute.

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<v Speaker 2>ARMED benefits there because our low cost, low power processors

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<v Speaker 2>are very very efficient in terms of building data centers.

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<v Speaker 2>You have AWS, you have Microsoft, you have Google. They've

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<v Speaker 2>all announced products based on ARM, and then you have

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<v Speaker 2>the AI data centers, which are very very complex, require

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<v Speaker 2>high degree of customization. Power efficiency even more important there,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's been a great tailwind for our business. Just

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<v Speaker 2>look at what Nvidia announced with Grace Blackwell, a very

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<v Speaker 2>very complex not only chip but platform based on ARM

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<v Speaker 2>using their most advanced GPUs to drive the most complex

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<v Speaker 2>AI data centers. So for US, we brought they view

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<v Speaker 2>this AI capex expenditures as a tailwind for the business.

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<v Speaker 1>Rennie, you mentioned Grace Blackwell, it takes me to one

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<v Speaker 1>of our audience questions. So when I said you were

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<v Speaker 1>coming on the show on social media, I actually got

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<v Speaker 1>quite a number of submissions for you, and one is straightforward.

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<v Speaker 1>Does ARM plan to design its own accelerator to compete

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<v Speaker 1>I guess against some of the partners that you're with

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<v Speaker 1>or out in the marketplace.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, no product announcements today, ed, Sorry, We're just here

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<v Speaker 2>to kind of talk about the past quarter and our

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<v Speaker 2>outlook going forward.

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<v Speaker 1>No products announcement that that would indicate from a source

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<v Speaker 1>of I suppose academic or R and D standpoint that

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<v Speaker 1>you at least think about it.

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<v Speaker 2>We think about a lot of things, right, I mean,

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<v Speaker 2>our technology, as broad as it is, as many markets

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<v Speaker 2>as we can play in. My job is to think

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<v Speaker 2>about a lot of things. So I think that's a

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<v Speaker 2>safe statement.

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<v Speaker 1>Away from the sort of scale of infrastructure and data centers.

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<v Speaker 1>I think the AIPC is something that's pretty much dominated

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<v Speaker 1>the news cycle so far in twenty twenty four. One

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<v Speaker 1>of the other audience questions was when do we see

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<v Speaker 1>sort of a truly competitive ARM based Windows product that

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<v Speaker 1>can take on the performance of Max or apple Z

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<v Speaker 1>owned silicon that goes into a Mac. I know that

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<v Speaker 1>you think about this field a lot, But on the

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<v Speaker 1>competition side, what do you make of that question?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, so I want to be respectful of my great

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<v Speaker 2>partner Apple and their ecosystem, but there are some great

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<v Speaker 2>products out there today. Dell XPS has some amazing technology.

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<v Speaker 2>The battery life I think I was reading online. In fact,

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<v Speaker 2>I was looking to buy one of them. The advertised

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<v Speaker 2>battery life is nineteen hours now for a Windows machine.

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<v Speaker 2>That's rather unprecedented in terms of battery life. All day

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<v Speaker 2>use don't need a brick. So Dell and Michael and

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<v Speaker 2>his team have done an amazing job developing some great products.

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<v Speaker 2>So I think there are great products out there today.

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<v Speaker 1>For all of the AIPC announcements, are there any examples

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<v Speaker 1>of things that actually sort of translate into revenue for ARM?

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<v Speaker 2>Well, again, when you think about AIPCS running on ARM,

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<v Speaker 2>that's revenue FOREARM, and I think we're you know, the

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<v Speaker 2>way we think about the AIPC windows on our market

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<v Speaker 2>is probably less about the shipments this quarter, but the

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<v Speaker 2>long term trajectory. I think what you're now seeing is

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<v Speaker 2>single suppliers that are in the market today. We've heard

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<v Speaker 2>from a lot of sources that in the upcoming years

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<v Speaker 2>there's going to be more and more vendors building ships

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<v Speaker 2>for the windows on our market. That's just going to

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<v Speaker 2>be great for us because not only does it fill

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<v Speaker 2>out the choices of units for the end market, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to drive growth for US. So I said

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<v Speaker 2>a few months ago that I thought ARM could be

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<v Speaker 2>a fifty percent market share in the Windows market in

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<v Speaker 2>five years. I do believe that we're about one hundred

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<v Speaker 2>percent of the Apple operating system, so fifty percent of

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<v Speaker 2>the Windows market doesn't seem too ambitious in five years.

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<v Speaker 1>Four quarters ago, Probably in a number of years ago,

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<v Speaker 1>you and I might have started a conversation talking about

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<v Speaker 1>the smartphone market. So we'll end there. You know what's

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<v Speaker 1>going on in the smartphone market right now and whatever

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<v Speaker 1>is happening as sort of an industry wide level, is

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<v Speaker 1>there anything specific relating to ARM of the high end

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<v Speaker 1>of the smartphone market visa the sort of lower end models,

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<v Speaker 1>the middle market that you can tell me about.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I don't want to sound like a broken record

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<v Speaker 2>saying the trends that are going on in the smartphone

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<v Speaker 2>market are good for ARM, But I'm going to say

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<v Speaker 2>that because what we're seeing in the smartphone market is

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<v Speaker 2>while unit growth has been modest, single digits, there's been

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<v Speaker 2>significant growth in the premium segment, the high end, and

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<v Speaker 2>for ARM that's where we draw the highest level of revenue.

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<v Speaker 2>The reason for that is we use Version nine up

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<v Speaker 2>in that area of the stack. That's a much higher

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<v Speaker 2>royalty rate than the previous version, and those Version nine

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<v Speaker 2>smartphones in the premium space, they use a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>ARMED processors in some cases twelve four, fourteen, sixteen, depending

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<v Speaker 2>on the mix. So it's a true compute platform solution

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<v Speaker 2>which drives growth for us, which is why in the

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<v Speaker 2>last quarter, where units were single digits, our smartphone royalties

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<v Speaker 2>were up fifty percent year on here.

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<v Speaker 1>I had a similar conversation with Lisa Sue of AMD yesterday.

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<v Speaker 1>But is that a reflective of a broad market movement

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<v Speaker 1>or is it something special ARMS doing to outperform in

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<v Speaker 1>the market.

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's a combination of both. You know, a

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<v Speaker 2>number of years ago with version nine, we added some

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<v Speaker 2>significant compute capability that was really to drive performance. Now,

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<v Speaker 2>what we're seeing, particularly in the near term and going forward,

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<v Speaker 2>is the skws that are being built. People are trying

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<v Speaker 2>to put as much compute performance as possible in those phones.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, for example, when you think about the large

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<v Speaker 2>language models such as Lama or Gemini. When those phones

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<v Speaker 2>were developed, those models didn't even exist. So not only

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<v Speaker 2>are you having to run all the complex software the

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<v Speaker 2>camera apps, but now you want to run an AI workload.

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<v Speaker 2>So people are just putting as much compute as possible

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<v Speaker 2>into those high ended ships, which is good for us.

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<v Speaker 1>Rene Haas, CEO of ARM, thank you very much for

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<v Speaker 1>what it's worth. The stock hit session low down sixteen

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<v Speaker 1>point two percent during that conversation, but a lot learned.