1
00:00:00,120 --> 00:00:06,800
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

2
00:00:11,640 --> 00:00:15,440
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Jonathan Ferrow, along

3
00:00:15,480 --> 00:00:18,720
Speaker 2: with Lisa Bromwitz and Amrie Hordern. Join us each day

4
00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:22,280
Speaker 2: for insight from the best in markets, economics, and geopolitics

5
00:00:22,400 --> 00:00:24,920
Speaker 2: from our global headquarters in New York City. We are

6
00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:27,680
Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg Television weekday mornings from six to nine

7
00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,280
Speaker 2: am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify or

8
00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:33,960
Speaker 2: anywhere else you listen, and as always on the Bloomberg

9
00:00:34,040 --> 00:00:36,960
Speaker 2: Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app. So here's the latest.

10
00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:39,080
Speaker 2: All eyes on fetched J. Powell, as he said to

11
00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:41,880
Speaker 2: speak Friday from Jackson Hole, the focus turning from when

12
00:00:42,159 --> 00:00:43,839
Speaker 2: to how big and how many rate cuts the Fed

13
00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:47,040
Speaker 2: actually delivers. Cassiberrow of JP Morgan assea management rights in

14
00:00:47,080 --> 00:00:50,239
Speaker 2: the following simple policy rules would suggest the Fed could

15
00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,720
Speaker 2: have already started easing by now. This was true even

16
00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,480
Speaker 2: before the last jobs report, but further confirmed by the

17
00:00:55,480 --> 00:00:59,120
Speaker 2: most recent CPI report risk reward favors owning some duration

18
00:00:59,200 --> 00:01:02,040
Speaker 2: in portfolios. As we approach the star of the Fed's

19
00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,399
Speaker 2: easing cycle, Cassie joined us now for more. A Cassi

20
00:01:05,480 --> 00:01:08,600
Speaker 2: language is really important you say easing, some people might

21
00:01:08,640 --> 00:01:11,800
Speaker 2: say removing restriction. Are you talking about a shift towards

22
00:01:11,800 --> 00:01:13,720
Speaker 2: accommodation of the feder reserve?

23
00:01:14,400 --> 00:01:18,039
Speaker 3: Well, I think you are rightfully so picking up on

24
00:01:18,080 --> 00:01:20,800
Speaker 3: a little bit of a differentiation. So when I say easing,

25
00:01:20,959 --> 00:01:23,440
Speaker 3: I think the FED in their mind, views that as

26
00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:28,479
Speaker 3: reducing policy restrictiveness. But I think when I look at

27
00:01:28,520 --> 00:01:34,000
Speaker 3: the environment more holistically, putting aside the conflicting noise that

28
00:01:34,040 --> 00:01:36,440
Speaker 3: we're hearing in terms of the labor market and the consumer,

29
00:01:36,600 --> 00:01:38,880
Speaker 3: is it really weak or is it really strong? I

30
00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:42,560
Speaker 3: think the inflation backdrop alone at this point probably justifies

31
00:01:43,480 --> 00:01:46,600
Speaker 3: at least one hundred basis points of rate cuts. Not immediately,

32
00:01:47,240 --> 00:01:49,280
Speaker 3: but I think a policy rate closer to three and

33
00:01:49,280 --> 00:01:51,560
Speaker 3: a half to four percent is probably where we should

34
00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:54,640
Speaker 3: be trending, just based on the inflation data alone. And

35
00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:59,480
Speaker 3: that's because inflation is coming down. It's more broad based,

36
00:02:00,240 --> 00:02:03,440
Speaker 3: just concentrated in two categories at this point, shelter.

37
00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:04,000
Speaker 4: And auto insurance.

38
00:02:04,040 --> 00:02:05,520
Speaker 2: Let's get into that a little bit more, sort of

39
00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:07,320
Speaker 2: set the stage for the economic bankdrop, and then we'll

40
00:02:07,320 --> 00:02:10,240
Speaker 2: get into the market call the breadth of the decline

41
00:02:10,240 --> 00:02:12,880
Speaker 2: in inflation. How encouraging has that been for you? Where

42
00:02:12,960 --> 00:02:15,040
Speaker 2: is shelter? Is that still a sticking point?

43
00:02:15,360 --> 00:02:16,720
Speaker 4: It has been very encouraging.

44
00:02:16,760 --> 00:02:18,920
Speaker 3: I mean so if you think about the inflation or

45
00:02:18,960 --> 00:02:21,680
Speaker 3: disinflation that we saw last year, it was primarily a

46
00:02:21,720 --> 00:02:25,640
Speaker 3: goods story and that was the low hanging fruit. What

47
00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:29,680
Speaker 3: we've seen more recently is that the inflation or disinflation

48
00:02:29,880 --> 00:02:34,679
Speaker 3: has broadened out and it's now included the services category,

49
00:02:34,919 --> 00:02:37,240
Speaker 3: now the shelter category. I know there's a lot of

50
00:02:37,280 --> 00:02:39,440
Speaker 3: hemming and hawing over is it coming down?

51
00:02:39,480 --> 00:02:41,480
Speaker 4: Is it coming down fast enough? But you know, I

52
00:02:41,560 --> 00:02:43,280
Speaker 4: look at it. I look at the year over your rate.

53
00:02:43,320 --> 00:02:46,119
Speaker 3: It's down three hundred or three hundred basis points three

54
00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:47,799
Speaker 3: percent over the last year.

55
00:02:48,240 --> 00:02:49,520
Speaker 4: It's coming down, and I.

56
00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,919
Speaker 3: Think it will probably continue to normalize over time. Two

57
00:02:53,080 --> 00:02:55,600
Speaker 3: levels more consistent with pre COVID, which is where the

58
00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:58,960
Speaker 3: majority of the CPI basket is already trading.

59
00:02:59,280 --> 00:03:02,360
Speaker 5: You've been talking to about this for many months. Basically

60
00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:04,000
Speaker 5: the rest of the markets come on board with you,

61
00:03:04,360 --> 00:03:06,480
Speaker 5: and it seems like this is now consensus and the

62
00:03:06,480 --> 00:03:08,840
Speaker 5: market is pricing this an already and some would argue

63
00:03:09,040 --> 00:03:13,000
Speaker 5: has already moved for the Federal Reserve, which hasn't moved,

64
00:03:13,040 --> 00:03:17,320
Speaker 5: and yet effective rates have essentially dropped that much. How

65
00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:20,160
Speaker 5: disruptive would it be if FED chair Jpewell doesn't lean

66
00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:22,799
Speaker 5: into the rate cuts that are being priced into the.

67
00:03:22,720 --> 00:03:24,080
Speaker 4: Market in his speech on Friday.

68
00:03:24,240 --> 00:03:27,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's a really good question, because you know, I

69
00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:31,200
Speaker 3: look at the moves and yields this year, right, and

70
00:03:31,560 --> 00:03:33,359
Speaker 3: they've all been driven by data.

71
00:03:33,840 --> 00:03:36,400
Speaker 4: Not one has been driven by FED speak.

72
00:03:36,880 --> 00:03:39,960
Speaker 3: It's you know, it's the data that's driving the market's

73
00:03:40,000 --> 00:03:42,400
Speaker 3: reassessment of how many rate cuts need.

74
00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:43,040
Speaker 4: To be done this year.

75
00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,680
Speaker 3: And earlier in the year, when there was concern about

76
00:03:45,720 --> 00:03:48,480
Speaker 3: reacceleration risk and there were a couple hot inflation prints,

77
00:03:48,520 --> 00:03:50,960
Speaker 3: the market priced out rate cuts.

78
00:03:51,000 --> 00:03:52,520
Speaker 4: They didn't need FED speak to do that.

79
00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:55,240
Speaker 3: So I guess where I'm circling back to is when

80
00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:59,600
Speaker 3: I think about Jackson Hole and what share Palel's responsibility is.

81
00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:01,920
Speaker 3: You know, I think what we're going to hear from

82
00:04:01,960 --> 00:04:05,520
Speaker 3: him is that he is comfortable with the inflation backdrop.

83
00:04:05,840 --> 00:04:08,480
Speaker 3: This is an environment where the FED can start removing

84
00:04:08,600 --> 00:04:10,160
Speaker 3: policy restrictiveness.

85
00:04:10,480 --> 00:04:12,400
Speaker 4: But I don't think he is going to.

86
00:04:12,400 --> 00:04:16,440
Speaker 3: Be particularly explicit about how many rate cuts that will

87
00:04:16,480 --> 00:04:19,200
Speaker 3: be or how far they need to go. I think

88
00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:21,080
Speaker 3: that they're going to kind of continue to let the

89
00:04:21,120 --> 00:04:22,279
Speaker 3: market do that work for.

90
00:04:22,160 --> 00:04:24,400
Speaker 5: Them, So, in other words, he's not going to lean

91
00:04:24,440 --> 00:04:27,080
Speaker 5: into it one way or another, Which raises this question

92
00:04:27,160 --> 00:04:29,800
Speaker 5: about the theme of the actual conference, which is reassessing

93
00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:33,560
Speaker 5: the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy. How effective and

94
00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:36,840
Speaker 5: how much control do they have over the transmission of

95
00:04:36,880 --> 00:04:40,000
Speaker 5: this monetary policy If all of the moves this year

96
00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:42,279
Speaker 5: have not been driven by their rhetoric, have been driven

97
00:04:42,279 --> 00:04:43,520
Speaker 5: by data.

98
00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,240
Speaker 3: Right, well, I mean, I think that's because we've moved

99
00:04:46,279 --> 00:04:50,080
Speaker 3: out of an era of true reliance on forward guidance.

100
00:04:50,080 --> 00:04:52,400
Speaker 3: If you think about what forward guidance was and why

101
00:04:52,440 --> 00:04:54,880
Speaker 3: it was created, it was created for an environment of

102
00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,920
Speaker 3: the zero lower bound, right It was when we cut

103
00:04:57,960 --> 00:05:01,120
Speaker 3: to zero and we still needed to be even more accommodative,

104
00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:03,799
Speaker 3: and we had no tools left, and we've tried quantitative

105
00:05:03,880 --> 00:05:05,960
Speaker 3: using one, two three, What else can we do?

106
00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,320
Speaker 4: Well, we can try to just jobble in the markets.

107
00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:13,000
Speaker 3: And continue to promise them low rates for longer. The

108
00:05:13,120 --> 00:05:15,960
Speaker 3: environment we're in right now is not really an environment

109
00:05:16,000 --> 00:05:19,760
Speaker 3: of extraordinary policy where the forward guidance that we need

110
00:05:20,120 --> 00:05:23,160
Speaker 3: is that type of forward guidance, And so I think

111
00:05:23,200 --> 00:05:26,640
Speaker 3: that the environment that we're in is one rightfully sell

112
00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:29,800
Speaker 3: where you know, the forward guidance is not what's most relevant.

113
00:05:29,839 --> 00:05:32,360
Speaker 3: What's most relevant is where we are in the business cycle.

114
00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,760
Speaker 3: And to be frank, you know, we're all learning that together,

115
00:05:35,960 --> 00:05:38,480
Speaker 3: including the Federal Reserve members as they watch the data.

116
00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:40,120
Speaker 6: Kelsey, when you were talking about the data and the

117
00:05:40,120 --> 00:05:42,839
Speaker 6: market moving data dependent, that's because the FED told them

118
00:05:43,000 --> 00:05:45,240
Speaker 6: they were so data dependent. So it comes from the

119
00:05:45,240 --> 00:05:48,559
Speaker 6: FED basically saying we're so data dependent, the market should

120
00:05:48,560 --> 00:05:51,720
Speaker 6: be data dependent. Does j Pell need to almost take

121
00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:54,160
Speaker 6: a step back on that when he talks and said

122
00:05:54,560 --> 00:05:57,680
Speaker 6: this week at Jackson Hall before the potential cut or

123
00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:00,920
Speaker 6: keeping policy in line us back on the market, you

124
00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:02,279
Speaker 6: shouldn't be so data dependent.

125
00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:06,160
Speaker 4: So I do think there's probably an opportunity.

126
00:06:05,480 --> 00:06:09,159
Speaker 3: For him to use words such as gradual to describe

127
00:06:09,160 --> 00:06:14,240
Speaker 3: the easing cycle. So he is likely aware that commentators

128
00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,159
Speaker 3: in the media and financial market participants have been talking

129
00:06:17,160 --> 00:06:20,440
Speaker 3: about the need for intra meeting cuts after the July

130
00:06:20,680 --> 00:06:24,240
Speaker 3: jobs report, the need for potentially fifty basis point rate cuts.

131
00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:27,520
Speaker 3: I think the data he's seeing on a mosaic basis

132
00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:31,680
Speaker 3: is probably not suggesting a need to be that quick

133
00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:35,240
Speaker 3: to move. And so while I think he wants to

134
00:06:35,279 --> 00:06:40,400
Speaker 3: communicate that they have the capacity to be quick if necessary.

135
00:06:40,240 --> 00:06:42,000
Speaker 4: The current environment is one where.

136
00:06:41,880 --> 00:06:45,280
Speaker 3: They can adjust slowly and recognize that in the event

137
00:06:45,320 --> 00:06:47,919
Speaker 3: that something goes wrong, we're in a great position to

138
00:06:48,000 --> 00:06:50,880
Speaker 3: respond because we're not near the zero lour a bound.

139
00:06:50,920 --> 00:06:53,640
Speaker 3: We have five hundred basis points of policy space. And

140
00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:56,719
Speaker 3: that's also you know, I think what the bond market

141
00:06:56,760 --> 00:06:59,080
Speaker 3: is picking up and while while yields are coming down,

142
00:06:59,120 --> 00:07:00,640
Speaker 3: spreads are also stacking very well.

143
00:07:00,520 --> 00:07:03,280
Speaker 2: Continued, I just want to say this upfront present company excluded.

144
00:07:03,720 --> 00:07:06,120
Speaker 2: The last year has been dominated on this program by

145
00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:08,680
Speaker 2: a bunch of people trying to sell some bond funds

146
00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:11,400
Speaker 2: and to get out of cash. And I hear it

147
00:07:11,440 --> 00:07:13,600
Speaker 2: again now, sort of scaring people out of cash, to

148
00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:16,040
Speaker 2: say the rate cuts are coming, extend duration, get out

149
00:07:16,040 --> 00:07:19,240
Speaker 2: of money market funds. Why is now the right time

150
00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:22,080
Speaker 2: to do that? Because I've seen headfake after head fake

151
00:07:22,160 --> 00:07:24,360
Speaker 2: over the last twelve months, when people have given up,

152
00:07:24,360 --> 00:07:27,160
Speaker 2: say five point five percent, and rushed out to buy

153
00:07:27,240 --> 00:07:29,760
Speaker 2: duration when they maybe didn't need to. Why is now

154
00:07:29,760 --> 00:07:31,160
Speaker 2: the right time? Why is now different?

155
00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:34,720
Speaker 3: Well, I mean I was just looking at the numbers myself,

156
00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:39,120
Speaker 3: and you know, I said, you know, normally the conventional

157
00:07:39,120 --> 00:07:41,920
Speaker 3: wisdom is once the FED is start is done hiking,

158
00:07:42,000 --> 00:07:44,520
Speaker 3: which was back in July last year, it's time to

159
00:07:44,600 --> 00:07:47,600
Speaker 3: start extending duration. If you were to have moved just

160
00:07:47,840 --> 00:07:50,400
Speaker 3: a little bit of that cash into one to five

161
00:07:50,480 --> 00:07:53,880
Speaker 3: year high high quality corporate credit, so one to five

162
00:07:53,960 --> 00:07:56,680
Speaker 3: year investment great credit, you would beat two hundred basis

163
00:07:56,680 --> 00:07:58,840
Speaker 3: points ahead of cash at this point thirteen months later.

164
00:07:59,080 --> 00:08:01,239
Speaker 3: So I think it proves the and is actually already there.

165
00:08:02,240 --> 00:08:04,320
Speaker 3: And that's before the fat has even started cutting.

166
00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:08,920
Speaker 2: Cassy Barrow of JP Morgan Accent Management defending the sales

167
00:08:08,920 --> 00:08:20,760
Speaker 2: pitch of the last eighteen months. So here's the latest

168
00:08:20,920 --> 00:08:23,600
Speaker 2: the US dollar extending losses as traders away. Comments from

169
00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:27,080
Speaker 2: fenchair J Powe from Jackson Hole on Friday, Expectations for

170
00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,680
Speaker 2: a September FED rate cut happen to push the Bloomberg

171
00:08:29,680 --> 00:08:32,160
Speaker 2: Dollar Index to its lowest level since March of this year.

172
00:08:32,440 --> 00:08:34,640
Speaker 2: Steve England are a standard chartered right in the following.

173
00:08:34,640 --> 00:08:37,480
Speaker 2: We now expect three twenty five basis point cuts from

174
00:08:37,480 --> 00:08:39,840
Speaker 2: the FMC for the rest of twenty four. We also

175
00:08:39,880 --> 00:08:42,600
Speaker 2: expect steeper rate cuts in the first half of twenty five,

176
00:08:42,880 --> 00:08:46,280
Speaker 2: totaling seventy five basis points in Q one and fifty

177
00:08:46,320 --> 00:08:49,959
Speaker 2: basis points in Q two. Steve joined us. Now for more. Steve,

178
00:08:50,120 --> 00:08:51,920
Speaker 2: welcome to the program, and let's start right there with

179
00:08:51,960 --> 00:08:53,840
Speaker 2: your calls for three cuts this year and one hundred

180
00:08:53,880 --> 00:08:55,960
Speaker 2: and twenty five basis points in the first half of

181
00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,520
Speaker 2: twenty twenty five. Can you help pass and our audience

182
00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:01,599
Speaker 2: understand whether that's an adjustment based on falling inflation or

183
00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,960
Speaker 2: whether that's a shift to accommodation to confront weak growth.

184
00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:11,520
Speaker 7: More the first if we really see weak growth, you know,

185
00:09:11,600 --> 00:09:12,920
Speaker 7: which is not our baseline.

186
00:09:13,000 --> 00:09:14,840
Speaker 8: But you know, fifties learned the picture.

187
00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:18,360
Speaker 7: The fifty story is very you know, a typical recession

188
00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:19,720
Speaker 7: fall off, a cliff story.

189
00:09:20,520 --> 00:09:22,439
Speaker 8: We don't expect that, so we have twenty five.

190
00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:24,800
Speaker 7: So I think as we get into twenty twenty five,

191
00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:30,160
Speaker 7: with the unemployment rate drifting up and inflation getting closer

192
00:09:30,200 --> 00:09:34,800
Speaker 7: to target, all the considerations of you know, how tight

193
00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:38,600
Speaker 7: should real interest rates be matter, So that's why we

194
00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:42,040
Speaker 7: think that they'll be able to cut more aggressively and

195
00:09:42,160 --> 00:09:45,160
Speaker 7: bring the FED funds closer to neutral in the first half.

196
00:09:45,800 --> 00:09:47,760
Speaker 7: I think the Fed would prefer not to do it

197
00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:51,360
Speaker 7: in twenty twenty four because they want to be sure

198
00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:55,120
Speaker 7: we're still on track for you know, getting target inflation,

199
00:09:55,200 --> 00:09:57,520
Speaker 7: and they want to be sure if they do a fifty,

200
00:09:57,559 --> 00:10:00,839
Speaker 7: that the economy is in dire straits. But by twenty

201
00:10:00,880 --> 00:10:03,760
Speaker 7: twenty five they will be more confident that they can

202
00:10:03,840 --> 00:10:05,160
Speaker 7: do in isolated fifty.

203
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:06,839
Speaker 8: We don't think it's going to be too many of them.

204
00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,320
Speaker 2: See if there are two very different conversations, though, there

205
00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:12,119
Speaker 2: is a key distinction, and you've drawn it, the conversation

206
00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:16,080
Speaker 2: about removing restrictiveness and a conversation about shifting towards accommodation.

207
00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:18,480
Speaker 2: What does the dollar look like? How does it trade

208
00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:20,160
Speaker 2: in one back drop versus the other?

209
00:10:21,559 --> 00:10:24,600
Speaker 8: Yes, the dollar is kind of interesting. You know. We

210
00:10:24,720 --> 00:10:27,520
Speaker 8: thought that the dollar because.

211
00:10:27,240 --> 00:10:30,720
Speaker 7: We're we're at saying twenty five basis points, the market

212
00:10:30,760 --> 00:10:32,920
Speaker 7: was somewhere between twenty five and fifty and q four,

213
00:10:33,080 --> 00:10:35,840
Speaker 7: So as the market pulled back from those rate kind

214
00:10:35,880 --> 00:10:38,000
Speaker 7: of expectations, we thought the dollar would strengthen.

215
00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:41,080
Speaker 8: What we've seen so far is.

216
00:10:40,960 --> 00:10:43,800
Speaker 7: That the asset markets and the currency markets are paying

217
00:10:43,840 --> 00:10:49,320
Speaker 7: attention to the abrilliance that you're seeing in equities, and

218
00:10:49,840 --> 00:10:53,080
Speaker 7: you know, that's kind of been driving the dollar weaker,

219
00:10:53,559 --> 00:10:57,280
Speaker 7: even though the interest rates move. Interest rate moves have

220
00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:59,520
Speaker 7: been more in favor of the dollar than against it.

221
00:10:59,760 --> 00:11:02,120
Speaker 7: We have to see if that persists. There's still a

222
00:11:02,160 --> 00:11:04,920
Speaker 7: long way to go before we entirely get rid of

223
00:11:05,000 --> 00:11:08,000
Speaker 7: the you know, one hundred basis points, you know, get

224
00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,600
Speaker 7: back to seventy five that we expect. So we as

225
00:11:10,600 --> 00:11:13,400
Speaker 7: a baseline, we still think the dollar could much stronger.

226
00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:16,240
Speaker 8: But twenty twenty five we think will be a week.

227
00:11:16,160 --> 00:11:19,360
Speaker 7: Dollar year, because that will be you know, all systems

228
00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:21,520
Speaker 7: go to basically get back to neutral.

229
00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:25,200
Speaker 8: The Fed will converge with everybody else in rates terms.

230
00:11:25,400 --> 00:11:27,800
Speaker 5: Does it bother you Steve's that the bond market disagrees

231
00:11:27,840 --> 00:11:31,040
Speaker 5: with itself. That essentially, you have FED fund's futures talking

232
00:11:31,040 --> 00:11:33,599
Speaker 5: about your view of things, two hundred basis points of

233
00:11:33,679 --> 00:11:36,040
Speaker 5: rate cuts by the end of next year, but then

234
00:11:36,080 --> 00:11:38,320
Speaker 5: you've got a two year trading at four percent. I mean,

235
00:11:38,480 --> 00:11:40,760
Speaker 5: you start talking about the dollar before you even get there.

236
00:11:41,120 --> 00:11:42,640
Speaker 5: The market can't agree with itself.

237
00:11:44,559 --> 00:11:47,480
Speaker 7: Well, I never asked the market to be entirely consistent

238
00:11:47,520 --> 00:11:49,480
Speaker 7: because there are different segments in the market.

239
00:11:49,559 --> 00:11:51,760
Speaker 8: But you know, the two years is.

240
00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:56,160
Speaker 7: Kind of you know, pricing in that FED fund saved

241
00:11:56,160 --> 00:11:58,480
Speaker 7: by the end of twenty twenty five, beginning of twenty

242
00:11:58,520 --> 00:12:01,160
Speaker 7: twenty six will be around three percent.

243
00:12:01,679 --> 00:12:03,560
Speaker 8: We're now at five and change.

244
00:12:03,240 --> 00:12:06,160
Speaker 7: So the two years sort of averaging you know, where

245
00:12:06,160 --> 00:12:08,520
Speaker 7: we are going to be versus where we are now.

246
00:12:09,760 --> 00:12:11,280
Speaker 8: You know. But I would say this, and I think

247
00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:12,360
Speaker 8: this is really important.

248
00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:15,560
Speaker 7: If it does turn out that we're in a typical recession,

249
00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:17,760
Speaker 7: that you know, all the saw rules charts that on

250
00:12:17,880 --> 00:12:23,480
Speaker 7: unemployment that everybody was pulling out, that this economy follows

251
00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:29,000
Speaker 7: the contours of a typical recession, the market is way

252
00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:31,520
Speaker 7: off base because FED will take real rates to zero,

253
00:12:31,679 --> 00:12:34,000
Speaker 7: may be negative, so that would mean like a two

254
00:12:34,040 --> 00:12:37,600
Speaker 7: percent FED funds rate or even below. I think right

255
00:12:37,640 --> 00:12:42,800
Speaker 7: now the market is pricing in a very comfortable sluggishness

256
00:12:43,679 --> 00:12:46,440
Speaker 7: in the US economy that you know, mostly twenty five

257
00:12:46,480 --> 00:12:48,160
Speaker 7: basis point cuts can deal with.

258
00:12:48,600 --> 00:12:51,839
Speaker 8: If it turns out that's not the case, you know.

259
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:54,200
Speaker 7: We're mispriced, and we could go back to the early

260
00:12:54,240 --> 00:12:58,560
Speaker 7: August world where you know, equities are mispriced because the

261
00:12:58,600 --> 00:13:01,800
Speaker 7: economy is a lot weaker, and fixed income is mispriced

262
00:13:01,920 --> 00:13:04,240
Speaker 7: because the cuts are going to have to be a

263
00:13:04,240 --> 00:13:06,160
Speaker 7: lot deeper than you know, what's.

264
00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:06,680
Speaker 8: Priced in now.

265
00:13:07,160 --> 00:13:09,840
Speaker 5: This is a question going forward, and John was alluding

266
00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,640
Speaker 5: to it, the idea of dollar weakness or dollar strength

267
00:13:12,840 --> 00:13:15,400
Speaker 5: depending on what kind of rate cuts there are. I'm

268
00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:19,160
Speaker 5: wondering how much some of the dislocations, or some of

269
00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:23,800
Speaker 5: the overweights on the dollar versus the yen or things

270
00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:27,040
Speaker 5: like that, how much those carry trades are really flushed

271
00:13:27,040 --> 00:13:29,000
Speaker 5: out of the system last week, giving more of a

272
00:13:29,040 --> 00:13:32,080
Speaker 5: clean slate that will lead to more controlled moves, the

273
00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:33,920
Speaker 5: same kind of violence that we saw.

274
00:13:35,920 --> 00:13:38,720
Speaker 8: You know, from the indications, we have certainly.

275
00:13:40,040 --> 00:13:43,280
Speaker 7: What you call fast money hedge funds, you know, high

276
00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:47,480
Speaker 7: frequency traders. They got out of their long dollar positions

277
00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:50,079
Speaker 7: very very quickly, so the market is pretty clean. There

278
00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:53,200
Speaker 7: could be a few segments of the market where they're

279
00:13:53,240 --> 00:13:57,280
Speaker 7: catching up, but I think that the you know, positioning

280
00:13:57,400 --> 00:14:00,600
Speaker 7: is much much lower than it was two weeks ago

281
00:14:00,640 --> 00:14:02,680
Speaker 7: or even a week ago, and it's certainly not in

282
00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:06,240
Speaker 7: terms of dollar longs, those have kind of disappeared.

283
00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:08,560
Speaker 2: Steve, just quickly, are you satisfied on the morning bight

284
00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,920
Speaker 2: this morning that we have broken the correlation between the

285
00:14:11,040 --> 00:14:13,959
Speaker 2: Japanese yen and what happens with risk given the equities

286
00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,320
Speaker 2: holding up okay this morning, even with a much stronger

287
00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:17,280
Speaker 2: Japanese yen.

288
00:14:19,280 --> 00:14:21,600
Speaker 7: I'll say this, I never thought that the end trade

289
00:14:21,680 --> 00:14:23,760
Speaker 7: was driving global risk.

290
00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,560
Speaker 8: It did drive Asian FX.

291
00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:29,960
Speaker 7: I mean that's why you know all Asian currencies are strong,

292
00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:33,800
Speaker 7: and it did drive the unlined. But I think that

293
00:14:33,880 --> 00:14:38,080
Speaker 7: the big equity market moves that we saw and the

294
00:14:38,440 --> 00:14:41,080
Speaker 7: big fixed income moves that we saw were driven by

295
00:14:41,120 --> 00:14:42,480
Speaker 7: recession fears.

296
00:14:42,560 --> 00:14:43,720
Speaker 8: And those could come back.

297
00:14:43,800 --> 00:14:45,840
Speaker 7: It's not our baseline, but those could come back if

298
00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:48,800
Speaker 7: it turns out that the unemployment rate keeps throwing up

299
00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:50,600
Speaker 7: by two tens of a percent of the months, and

300
00:14:51,200 --> 00:14:52,680
Speaker 7: so we're not out of the woods yet.

301
00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:55,400
Speaker 2: We'll be playing this game again on September six. Looking

302
00:14:55,400 --> 00:14:57,760
Speaker 2: forward to it, Steve, Thank you, sir, Steve England have

303
00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:10,320
Speaker 2: standard shouted Secretary of State Anthony Blinkett arriving at Tel

304
00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:13,800
Speaker 2: Aviv as Israel and Hamas truce talk stall yet again.

305
00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:17,240
Speaker 2: Senior Advisor to the President for Energy and Investment Amas Hogstein,

306
00:15:17,240 --> 00:15:19,640
Speaker 2: playing a key role in these intensions in the Mid

307
00:15:19,760 --> 00:15:22,080
Speaker 2: East for the Band and administration. He joins us now

308
00:15:22,080 --> 00:15:24,440
Speaker 2: as great to see you. Widely regarded as one of

309
00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:27,880
Speaker 2: the President's most trusted security advisors. You were in Beirut,

310
00:15:27,960 --> 00:15:29,720
Speaker 2: I believe in the last week as well. Can you

311
00:15:29,720 --> 00:15:31,640
Speaker 2: set the States Rusk just help explain to us where

312
00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:34,880
Speaker 2: talks aren't currently both between Lebanon and Israel, and what's

313
00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:36,520
Speaker 2: happening currently in the Gaza strip as well.

314
00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:37,320
Speaker 9: Well.

315
00:15:37,320 --> 00:15:40,240
Speaker 1: First, good to be here. Thank you for having me. Yeah,

316
00:15:40,280 --> 00:15:43,000
Speaker 1: I was in Beirut last week. We had obviously rising

317
00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:49,520
Speaker 1: tensions and escalation of different reprisals and different threats across

318
00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:55,040
Speaker 1: the region. The President had ordered large parts of military

319
00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:59,240
Speaker 1: US military to the region, and of course diplomacy to

320
00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:01,680
Speaker 1: commence as well to be able to reduce tensions. The

321
00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:04,520
Speaker 1: most important thing that President's focused on now that we

322
00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:07,720
Speaker 1: want to achieve is a ceasefire agreement that brings the

323
00:16:07,760 --> 00:16:12,760
Speaker 1: hostages home finally to their families, brings relief to civilians

324
00:16:12,760 --> 00:16:15,200
Speaker 1: in Gaza, and sets the stage to end this war.

325
00:16:15,360 --> 00:16:17,240
Speaker 1: That's the most important thing. So the talks in Doha

326
00:16:17,360 --> 00:16:21,600
Speaker 1: last week, talks continue right now. As you said, Secretary

327
00:16:21,640 --> 00:16:25,040
Speaker 1: blink In is in the region in Israel today and

328
00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:29,160
Speaker 1: I take issue with stall. I think that the press

329
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:33,280
Speaker 1: wants to have some you know, there's movement every single day,

330
00:16:33,400 --> 00:16:36,400
Speaker 1: But these are very serious discussions that will continue over

331
00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:37,200
Speaker 1: the next several days.

332
00:16:37,280 --> 00:16:39,320
Speaker 2: We'll educate us where has there been movement.

333
00:16:39,920 --> 00:16:42,360
Speaker 9: Well, I can't, obviously for obvious reasons, can't.

334
00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:44,920
Speaker 1: Go into the details of where the of the details

335
00:16:44,960 --> 00:16:50,040
Speaker 1: of the talks. But they are progressing things. That's why

336
00:16:50,040 --> 00:16:52,960
Speaker 1: Secretary blink In is there and the work will continue.

337
00:16:52,960 --> 00:16:56,920
Speaker 1: This never happens overnight, but I'm confident that will continue

338
00:16:56,920 --> 00:16:59,080
Speaker 1: to push as hard as we all can. And when

339
00:16:59,120 --> 00:17:02,120
Speaker 1: it comes to Lebanon, look, we had a ratching up

340
00:17:02,120 --> 00:17:05,200
Speaker 1: of escalation. We're trying to bring some of that down.

341
00:17:05,960 --> 00:17:08,960
Speaker 1: I was there really to talk to folks about how

342
00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:12,680
Speaker 1: do we think about the day after and and talk

343
00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:16,400
Speaker 1: about bringing some normal sense of normalcy for Lebanon. Look,

344
00:17:16,480 --> 00:17:18,640
Speaker 1: Lebanon is at at at a war that I think

345
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:22,960
Speaker 1: it's people don't want that they didn't that neither side

346
00:17:23,040 --> 00:17:29,640
Speaker 1: really started. Hasbela decided to join the conflict on October eighth.

347
00:17:28,680 --> 00:17:30,800
Speaker 9: And we've been in a tit for tat ever since.

348
00:17:31,160 --> 00:17:33,600
Speaker 1: So it's really important that is a critical piece not

349
00:17:33,640 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 1: to allow to escalate, as it has ramifications for the

350
00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:37,879
Speaker 1: rest of the region.

351
00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:39,760
Speaker 6: Well, almost you spent a lot of time with Lebanon

352
00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:42,840
Speaker 6: Speaker of the Parliament, who's very close to Hesbelah, What

353
00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:45,280
Speaker 6: did he tell you about Hesbela's intentions when it comes

354
00:17:45,280 --> 00:17:45,800
Speaker 6: to Israel.

355
00:17:46,920 --> 00:17:49,680
Speaker 1: Well, A, as you know, Hisabella and Israel have gone

356
00:17:49,920 --> 00:17:52,639
Speaker 1: on rounds of conflict over the last several decades on

357
00:17:53,240 --> 00:17:54,160
Speaker 1: every several years.

358
00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:55,800
Speaker 9: We've had relative quiet.

359
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:59,480
Speaker 1: Since the two thousand and six conflict ended and through

360
00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,880
Speaker 1: the Security Council Resolution seventeen oh one, it has never

361
00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:05,760
Speaker 1: really been implemented by either side. So we need to

362
00:18:05,800 --> 00:18:08,000
Speaker 1: get to another point. I think the Speaker as well

363
00:18:08,040 --> 00:18:10,840
Speaker 1: as most Lebanese people, they just want this to end.

364
00:18:11,000 --> 00:18:12,640
Speaker 1: They don't understand why they're at war.

365
00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:16,240
Speaker 6: Well, what tools does the US actually have to pressure Lebanon.

366
00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,600
Speaker 1: Well, again, we can talk about what does the what

367
00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:23,280
Speaker 1: does it look like to end not only this round,

368
00:18:23,680 --> 00:18:27,320
Speaker 1: but to put things in place that will create stability

369
00:18:27,320 --> 00:18:30,440
Speaker 1: for the long term and bring economic growth and stability

370
00:18:30,480 --> 00:18:32,840
Speaker 1: and prosperity in Lebanon. It's one of the most used

371
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:34,199
Speaker 1: to be one of the most successful countries.

372
00:18:34,240 --> 00:18:35,199
Speaker 9: Today. They went into the.

373
00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:38,800
Speaker 1: Total blackout the other day because they lost the last

374
00:18:39,080 --> 00:18:42,200
Speaker 1: fuel in their power plants. I mean, this is a

375
00:18:42,240 --> 00:18:44,800
Speaker 1: country that should be prosperous. So that's the kind of

376
00:18:44,840 --> 00:18:46,600
Speaker 1: things that the United States and our allies can do,

377
00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:48,760
Speaker 1: and I think the people of Lebanon want that we

378
00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:50,639
Speaker 1: have to get past this. One of the things that

379
00:18:50,680 --> 00:18:52,800
Speaker 1: will make it a lot easier to do that, of course,

380
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 1: is the ceasefire in Gaza.

381
00:18:53,920 --> 00:18:56,479
Speaker 6: Okay, so let's talk about the ceasefire in Gaza. The

382
00:18:56,520 --> 00:18:59,240
Speaker 6: President said potentially this could be a way to halt

383
00:18:59,520 --> 00:19:02,120
Speaker 6: Oran from retaliating. Iran has come out overnight and said

384
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:04,520
Speaker 6: that's not true. We're going to retaliate. Do you view

385
00:19:04,560 --> 00:19:07,720
Speaker 6: these talks which Secretary Blinkn is talking about last ditch,

386
00:19:07,760 --> 00:19:11,960
Speaker 6: final effort basically this week, as halting an Iranian retaliation

387
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:15,399
Speaker 6: or does the administration still expect Iran to retaliate?

388
00:19:15,880 --> 00:19:18,920
Speaker 1: Well, I think the President has made clear his expectations

389
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:22,080
Speaker 1: when he gave orders for the US military to do

390
00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:25,320
Speaker 1: take several actions to be able to defend both Israel

391
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:30,280
Speaker 1: and the region from a potential retaliation from Iran. We

392
00:19:30,359 --> 00:19:34,520
Speaker 1: don't believe Iran retaliate period, but we want to de escalate,

393
00:19:35,320 --> 00:19:39,199
Speaker 1: and that's why the US military is there. But at

394
00:19:39,200 --> 00:19:42,399
Speaker 1: the same time, we are focusing on the diplomatic effort

395
00:19:42,400 --> 00:19:46,400
Speaker 1: diplomatic push. And that's why Bill Burns Brett McGirk were

396
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 1: in Cairo and Doha last week. Why Secretary Blincoln is

397
00:19:50,600 --> 00:19:53,600
Speaker 1: in the region today and in meeting.

398
00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:55,000
Speaker 9: With prime minis. And it's in now just today.

399
00:19:55,680 --> 00:19:59,600
Speaker 1: The United States put down a draft on Friday, So

400
00:19:59,640 --> 00:20:01,920
Speaker 1: we're working with the parties to be able to get

401
00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:02,479
Speaker 1: to an agreement.

402
00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,480
Speaker 6: Who's that faultier in terms of the gaps? Is it

403
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:06,920
Speaker 6: Hamas or is it Benjamin Ye.

404
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:08,200
Speaker 9: I'm not going to go into faults.

405
00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:10,320
Speaker 1: I think this is there's no time to waste now,

406
00:20:10,320 --> 00:20:14,199
Speaker 1: and neither party has an excuse to delay. If you

407
00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:16,119
Speaker 1: want it, if you want to bring some relief to

408
00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:18,119
Speaker 1: the people in Gaza, if you want to bring the

409
00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:19,920
Speaker 1: hostages home, this is the time.

410
00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:20,560
Speaker 9: To reach an agreement.

411
00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:21,840
Speaker 2: Why is this the time?

412
00:20:23,240 --> 00:20:26,600
Speaker 9: I think it's been a long time this conflict has gone.

413
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:28,560
Speaker 2: Out, but we keep hearing that we have the time.

414
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:31,760
Speaker 2: Why is next? What happens if Secretary Blinking comes back

415
00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:32,840
Speaker 2: without an agreement?

416
00:20:33,840 --> 00:20:35,680
Speaker 1: Well, I don't think he's going there to come back

417
00:20:35,720 --> 00:20:38,040
Speaker 1: with an agreement. It's just to move the process along

418
00:20:38,200 --> 00:20:40,040
Speaker 1: or to get to the point of an agreement, and

419
00:20:40,080 --> 00:20:41,600
Speaker 1: I think he will do everything that he can.

420
00:20:41,800 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 9: This is the most important moment.

421
00:20:43,600 --> 00:20:47,119
Speaker 1: Uh, there's talks have been intensifying, We've seen what the

422
00:20:47,320 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 1: chances and odds are for escalation.

423
00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:51,120
Speaker 9: That's not only anybody wants.

424
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 5: I guess another way to put this is Tony Blinken

425
00:20:53,440 --> 00:20:55,480
Speaker 5: said that this may be the last chance to reach

426
00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 5: some sort of seas fire agreement.

427
00:20:57,000 --> 00:20:57,919
Speaker 9: What happens after that?

428
00:20:59,359 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 1: Look, I want to focus today on being able to

429
00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:03,959
Speaker 1: get there and so that we're going to put That's

430
00:21:03,960 --> 00:21:05,679
Speaker 1: why the president's saying that he's going to put as

431
00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:08,280
Speaker 1: much of his efforts that he can in order to

432
00:21:08,359 --> 00:21:09,600
Speaker 1: get to that outcome.

433
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:11,359
Speaker 9: That's what we're focused on.

434
00:21:13,200 --> 00:21:15,160
Speaker 6: How difficult is the president to put all these efforts

435
00:21:15,160 --> 00:21:17,600
Speaker 6: in when he's viewed internationally as a lame duck.

436
00:21:19,560 --> 00:21:21,600
Speaker 1: I think, first of all, there's one present. He is

437
00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:24,280
Speaker 1: the president of the United States. The full I can

438
00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,320
Speaker 1: tell you. I've been traveling the world. I don't think

439
00:21:26,320 --> 00:21:28,560
Speaker 1: that that is the view. Everybody knows we have an

440
00:21:28,560 --> 00:21:30,840
Speaker 1: election coming up. He's the president for the next six months,

441
00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:35,119
Speaker 1: and this is a crisis that cannot wait six months.

442
00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,080
Speaker 1: I think everybody knows that if you're talking about things

443
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,800
Speaker 1: that will happen over the next several years, and people

444
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:43,880
Speaker 1: will focus on talking to president, to the next president

445
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:48,600
Speaker 1: Kamala Harris, but I think that for now, these are

446
00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:50,639
Speaker 1: not crises. When you talk about the US economy, you

447
00:21:50,680 --> 00:21:52,520
Speaker 1: talk about the global economy, you talk about the crisis

448
00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 1: in the Middle East, these are not things that everybody's

449
00:21:54,560 --> 00:21:56,119
Speaker 1: going to say, well, let's just take.

450
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:59,080
Speaker 9: A break and wait till January. That can't happen.

451
00:21:59,840 --> 00:22:02,840
Speaker 1: So that's why we're that's why you're covering the economy

452
00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:05,240
Speaker 1: the way you are. And President gets brief. The last

453
00:22:05,280 --> 00:22:08,239
Speaker 1: couple of weeks have seen volatility in the markets. We

454
00:22:08,280 --> 00:22:11,119
Speaker 1: don't pretend that there's that We're just going to wait

455
00:22:11,160 --> 00:22:11,720
Speaker 1: ti January.

456
00:22:11,760 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 2: How often do you speak with the president.

457
00:22:15,400 --> 00:22:19,359
Speaker 1: As needed some weeks more on the last time just

458
00:22:19,400 --> 00:22:19,800
Speaker 1: a few.

459
00:22:19,680 --> 00:22:21,480
Speaker 2: Days ago, just a few days ago. How engaged is

460
00:22:21,520 --> 00:22:23,000
Speaker 2: he in these ongoing talks?

461
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:27,440
Speaker 1: Extremely engaged We've had He has convened his team on

462
00:22:27,480 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 1: a daily basis.

463
00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:30,879
Speaker 9: He talks to folks on to get regular updates. He

464
00:22:31,000 --> 00:22:32,440
Speaker 9: is very, very engaged.

465
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,680
Speaker 1: He's talked, he has calls with world leaders and regional

466
00:22:35,720 --> 00:22:37,520
Speaker 1: leaders also weekly.

467
00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,000
Speaker 9: In order to be able to push this forward.

468
00:22:40,760 --> 00:22:44,040
Speaker 2: Your future does it end with Biden? Will continue with Harris.

469
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:49,359
Speaker 1: I serve President Biden ask me that again in six

470
00:22:49,400 --> 00:22:53,040
Speaker 1: months when President Harris takes office.

471
00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 2: We have to say. If you can say when we're

472
00:22:54,600 --> 00:22:56,840
Speaker 2: talking again in six months before that, NOE doubt it's

473
00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 2: going to see us. Thank you. White House Senior Energy

474
00:22:59,520 --> 00:23:00,640
Speaker 2: Advisor i mus Hogstein.

475
00:23:00,720 --> 00:23:00,840
Speaker 9: There.

476
00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, bringing you the best

477
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:08,600
Speaker 2: in markets, economics, and geopolitics. You can watch the show

478
00:23:08,640 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 2: live on Bloomberg TV weekday mornings from six am to

479
00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:15,480
Speaker 2: nine am Eastern. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

480
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen, and as always, on the

481
00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:20,280
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Terminal and the Bloomberg Business app