1 00:00:03,640 --> 00:00:08,760 Speaker 1: Welcome to Prognosis. I'm Laura Carlson. It's day one forty 2 00:00:08,800 --> 00:00:14,120 Speaker 1: five since coronavirus was declared a global pandemic. Today's main story. 3 00:00:14,800 --> 00:00:18,520 Speaker 1: Once a vaccine is developed, there's a chance it won't 4 00:00:18,560 --> 00:00:23,000 Speaker 1: help the most vulnerable, elderly people and those with compromised 5 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:28,280 Speaker 1: immune systems. So drug companies are working on new ways 6 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:32,760 Speaker 1: to treat COVID and hoping to protect the very people 7 00:00:33,280 --> 00:00:39,080 Speaker 1: vaccines may not. But first, here's what happened in virus 8 00:00:39,120 --> 00:00:47,520 Speaker 1: news today. Tokyo confirmed two hundred and fifty eight new 9 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:52,280 Speaker 1: cases of the virus. Japan is facing a resurgence of 10 00:00:52,360 --> 00:00:56,920 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen. The country had contained its initial wave of 11 00:00:56,920 --> 00:01:01,520 Speaker 1: COVID nineteen earlier this year, but now infections that were 12 00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:06,040 Speaker 1: first concentrated in the capital have spread to other urban areas. 13 00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:11,880 Speaker 1: Regions that went for months without cases have become new hotspots. 14 00:01:12,720 --> 00:01:16,399 Speaker 1: The patient demographic in this new wave has changed, too. 15 00:01:17,080 --> 00:01:20,920 Speaker 1: The virus was first spreading among younger people who were 16 00:01:21,000 --> 00:01:25,360 Speaker 1: less likely to get seriously ill. Now it's expanding to 17 00:01:25,440 --> 00:01:29,720 Speaker 1: the elderly. That's a major concern in the country with 18 00:01:29,800 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 1: the world's oldest population. In the US, talks to break 19 00:01:36,360 --> 00:01:39,679 Speaker 1: an impass over a new virus relief package have become 20 00:01:39,800 --> 00:01:45,199 Speaker 1: increasingly urgent. Millions of jobless Americans were left without additional 21 00:01:45,240 --> 00:01:49,680 Speaker 1: aid after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach a deal 22 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 1: on a new stimulus package. The Senate is scheduled to 23 00:01:54,000 --> 00:01:59,200 Speaker 1: leave for an extended break on Friday. The parties remain 24 00:01:59,400 --> 00:02:02,280 Speaker 1: far apart art on some of the biggest sticking points, 25 00:02:02,600 --> 00:02:07,080 Speaker 1: including extending the supplemental six hundred dollars a week that 26 00:02:07,280 --> 00:02:13,360 Speaker 1: has kept many unemployed people from falling into poverty. Meanwhile, 27 00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:17,600 Speaker 1: the White House is exploring whether President Donald Trump can 28 00:02:17,760 --> 00:02:22,200 Speaker 1: act on his own to extend the benefits and eviction protection, 29 00:02:22,639 --> 00:02:27,960 Speaker 1: according to people familiar with the matter. Finally, the World 30 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:32,360 Speaker 1: Health Organization says the US can still fight the spread 31 00:02:32,360 --> 00:02:37,919 Speaker 1: of the disease. Maria van Kirkhove, the who's chief epidemiologist 32 00:02:37,960 --> 00:02:41,600 Speaker 1: on COVID, said that by staying home and wearing masks, 33 00:02:42,000 --> 00:02:53,560 Speaker 1: the country can still change its catastrophic infection trend. And 34 00:02:53,680 --> 00:02:59,200 Speaker 1: now for today's main story, The drug company Eli Lily 35 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 1: is about out to start testing it's COVID nineteen antibody 36 00:03:03,680 --> 00:03:08,280 Speaker 1: drug in nursing homes. Vaccines may not work as well 37 00:03:08,400 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 1: on elderly people or those with compromised immune systems. Since 38 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:17,200 Speaker 1: these are the very groups most at risk for severe 39 00:03:17,240 --> 00:03:21,960 Speaker 1: disease or death if they contract the coronavirus, a successful 40 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:26,760 Speaker 1: antibody treatment could have a marked effect on lowering the 41 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 1: pandemic's death. Toll I talked to reporter Riley Griffin about 42 00:03:32,200 --> 00:03:42,680 Speaker 1: the new drug and the promise of antibody treatments. Tell 43 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,800 Speaker 1: us a little bit about Eli Lillian companies. So called 44 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:50,280 Speaker 1: antibody therapy. It's a little of a lesser known approach 45 00:03:50,320 --> 00:03:52,600 Speaker 1: to counturing COVID nineteen. So I was hoping you could 46 00:03:52,640 --> 00:03:56,160 Speaker 1: walk us through it. Yes, So Lily is co developing 47 00:03:56,200 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 1: what's known as a monoclonal antibody with a Canadian startup, 48 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: Absilera Biologics, and these neutralizing antibodies you may have heard 49 00:04:06,080 --> 00:04:11,520 Speaker 1: that term before. They're tailored to mimic immune responses to 50 00:04:11,600 --> 00:04:15,160 Speaker 1: the virus. Other companies racing to come up with similar 51 00:04:15,200 --> 00:04:20,000 Speaker 1: treatments include Astra Zenica and VERB Biotechnology in partnership with 52 00:04:20,040 --> 00:04:24,159 Speaker 1: Glaxo Smith Klein. The best known treatment of this kind 53 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:29,320 Speaker 1: is a to antibody cocktail from Regeneraan, which actually received 54 00:04:29,400 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 1: a whopping four fifty million dollar award from the U. S. 55 00:04:32,560 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 1: Government's Operation Warp Speed project to that very end, and 56 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:42,240 Speaker 1: so maybe you could talk us through where Lily stands 57 00:04:42,440 --> 00:04:47,120 Speaker 1: right now in terms of their clinical trials. Lily's antibody, 58 00:04:47,200 --> 00:04:50,040 Speaker 1: which was isolated from one of the very first COVID 59 00:04:50,120 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 1: nineteen patients, is now actually going into phase three clinical trials. 60 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:58,240 Speaker 1: That's the latest stage of development, and Lily is taking 61 00:04:58,240 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 1: a single antibody approach. It's hoping that this therapy will 62 00:05:02,000 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 1: work both as a treatment for those with COVID nineteen 63 00:05:04,800 --> 00:05:09,080 Speaker 1: the disease, and as a prophylaxis which can prevent those 64 00:05:09,120 --> 00:05:13,159 Speaker 1: from contracting the illness. To that end, Lily is actually 65 00:05:13,200 --> 00:05:16,640 Speaker 1: studying the drug in nursing homes where the elderly are 66 00:05:16,720 --> 00:05:19,840 Speaker 1: at risk of exposure. So in a lot of clinical 67 00:05:19,880 --> 00:05:22,840 Speaker 1: studies that have launched in a similar setting, and there 68 00:05:22,880 --> 00:05:26,160 Speaker 1: aren't many, but in those that have, the point is, 69 00:05:26,200 --> 00:05:28,640 Speaker 1: if you notice that there's an outbreak in a nursing home, 70 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: what do you do next? And these studies would ultimately 71 00:05:32,120 --> 00:05:36,040 Speaker 1: enroll the population on the therapy and you could see 72 00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:39,839 Speaker 1: who then contracted it thereafter. Given its a population that 73 00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:43,839 Speaker 1: is so very much at risk, So how does this 74 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:50,880 Speaker 1: antibody approach fit into the overall larger landscape of therapeutics 75 00:05:50,920 --> 00:05:55,920 Speaker 1: and vaccines. Antibody treatments are seen as a compliment to vaccines, 76 00:05:56,600 --> 00:06:00,960 Speaker 1: which may not elicit the necessary immune response when administered 77 00:06:00,960 --> 00:06:04,760 Speaker 1: to elderly patients or those with compromised immune systems. And 78 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:07,480 Speaker 1: that's a that's a lingering question that we all have, 79 00:06:07,720 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 1: is how is any vaccine going to work um in 80 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:15,039 Speaker 1: the elderly, in the immunocompromised, not just among the young 81 00:06:15,279 --> 00:06:19,320 Speaker 1: the healthy. It's honestly, it's increasingly evident that we're going 82 00:06:19,400 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 1: to need effective treatments for COVID nineteen in addition to 83 00:06:22,279 --> 00:06:27,159 Speaker 1: those inoculations that can prevent against contracting the virus. Though 84 00:06:27,200 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 1: there are a hundred and sixty vaccines in various stages 85 00:06:29,960 --> 00:06:32,719 Speaker 1: of development, and a handful of course in late stage 86 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 1: human studies, we don't know how each is going to 87 00:06:37,480 --> 00:06:41,360 Speaker 1: work in every specific population. We're getting closer and closer 88 00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:43,719 Speaker 1: to seeing one of those candidates reached the stage in 89 00:06:43,760 --> 00:06:46,440 Speaker 1: which they could get an emergency use authorization to be 90 00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:52,119 Speaker 1: deployed two populations like healthcare workers. This is a really 91 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:55,800 Speaker 1: historic feat just thinking about how the industry has mobilized 92 00:06:55,839 --> 00:06:57,960 Speaker 1: to bring a shot across the finish line and under 93 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,880 Speaker 1: a year. It's really never been done before. Are But 94 00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:03,880 Speaker 1: I want to be clear here that no vaccine candidate 95 00:07:04,080 --> 00:07:07,839 Speaker 1: yet looks like it could be a silver bullet for 96 00:07:07,880 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: squashing the pandemic. There remain these lingering questions about how 97 00:07:12,560 --> 00:07:16,400 Speaker 1: many doses will be needed, how much immunity they will offer, 98 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 1: how durable that immunity will ultimately be, and what populations 99 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,559 Speaker 1: they will work to protect. And really that's all before 100 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: we get into these other questions of production, distribution, access, 101 00:07:30,320 --> 00:07:34,280 Speaker 1: and price. So some pharmaceutical industry CEOs who have been 102 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:37,760 Speaker 1: speaking with think that a vaccine may be needed seasonally 103 00:07:37,840 --> 00:07:42,400 Speaker 1: for the indefinite future, if the virus persists, if it mutates, 104 00:07:42,520 --> 00:07:44,840 Speaker 1: or if we're simply not able to get the herd 105 00:07:44,880 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: immunity needed to really crush COVID nineteen. What does the 106 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 1: US government and in particular Wall Street think of this approach. Yeah, 107 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:58,040 Speaker 1: so the the US certainly is deploying capital to that end. 108 00:07:58,120 --> 00:08:02,679 Speaker 1: We saw the award to Regenera on for its dual 109 00:08:02,800 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 1: in a body approach. Um, they're making investments here like 110 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: they have with vaccines, and through the same operation warp 111 00:08:08,840 --> 00:08:12,560 Speaker 1: speed effort. We're also seeing the National Institutes of Health 112 00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:17,480 Speaker 1: working with these companies to conduct studies of monoclonal antibodies 113 00:08:17,800 --> 00:08:21,640 Speaker 1: and similar antibody therapies. Meanwhile, you asked about Wall Street 114 00:08:22,000 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 1: investors really consider this to be an important quote unquote 115 00:08:26,600 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: plan b um. If the vaccine approach doesn't pan out 116 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:34,840 Speaker 1: as it initially hoped, which is quite possible, what challenges 117 00:08:35,160 --> 00:08:37,920 Speaker 1: could Lily or really any of the other producers of 118 00:08:37,960 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 1: monoclonal antibodies have in bringing this treatment to market. Well, 119 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:50,000 Speaker 1: Manufacturing the antibodies will both be challenging and very costly. Um. 120 00:08:50,160 --> 00:08:52,400 Speaker 1: Lily told us just last week that it's likely to 121 00:08:52,400 --> 00:08:56,120 Speaker 1: spend more than million this year loan on COVID related 122 00:08:56,240 --> 00:09:00,240 Speaker 1: R and D and manufacturing. Chief financial off a Sir 123 00:09:00,400 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: Joshua Smiley actually noted that there's quite a limited amount 124 00:09:03,880 --> 00:09:06,840 Speaker 1: of capacity in this world for this type of manufacturing, 125 00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:10,720 Speaker 1: so they're currently working to build that out and reconfigure 126 00:09:10,760 --> 00:09:13,000 Speaker 1: plants so that they can produce more than one hundred 127 00:09:13,080 --> 00:09:18,840 Speaker 1: thousand doses before year end. A antibody approach is not 128 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:22,680 Speaker 1: like a pill. It's not like a small molecule. That's 129 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 1: that's fairly cheap and can be done and mass It's 130 00:09:26,840 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 1: a very complex technology that is costly, and they're going 131 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:36,120 Speaker 1: to be lingering questions about how to price antibody responsibly 132 00:09:36,120 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 1: should one come to market, but also how you reach 133 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 1: that scale and do so quickly if one should prove 134 00:09:41,520 --> 00:09:46,000 Speaker 1: successful in the clinic. You know, it's a historic feat 135 00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:51,160 Speaker 1: that we're seeing vaccines and therapeutics reach late stage trials 136 00:09:51,280 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 1: and get closer to securing an emergency use authorization that 137 00:09:54,840 --> 00:10:00,160 Speaker 1: would allow us to move these these important pharmaceutic goal 138 00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 1: products to healthcare workers, to frontline workers, and then beyond um. 139 00:10:05,520 --> 00:10:09,040 Speaker 1: We're seeing the US, the UK, Japan reach deals to 140 00:10:09,200 --> 00:10:13,360 Speaker 1: secure doses of these products should any proof successful in 141 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:17,040 Speaker 1: the clinic. But ultimately, broader success will mean more than 142 00:10:17,080 --> 00:10:20,160 Speaker 1: crossing a finish line. It will mean we as a 143 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 1: society have the wherewithal to produce, to provide, to pay, 144 00:10:25,720 --> 00:10:29,520 Speaker 1: to protect ourselves from COVID nineteen and any other viruses 145 00:10:29,640 --> 00:10:37,840 Speaker 1: that could one day come. That was Riley Griffin and 146 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:40,160 Speaker 1: that's it for our show today. For coverage of the 147 00:10:40,200 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 1: outbreak from one bureaus around the world, visit Bloomberg dot 148 00:10:44,440 --> 00:10:48,760 Speaker 1: com slash coronavirus and if you like the show, please 149 00:10:48,840 --> 00:10:51,760 Speaker 1: leave us a review and a rating on Apple Podcasts 150 00:10:51,840 --> 00:10:55,000 Speaker 1: or Spotify. It's the best way to help more listeners 151 00:10:55,240 --> 00:10:59,559 Speaker 1: find our global reporting. The Productnosis Daily edition is produced 152 00:10:59,559 --> 00:11:05,560 Speaker 1: by Topor foreheads Jordan Gospoure, Magnus Hendrickson and me Laura Carlson. 153 00:11:06,040 --> 00:11:10,240 Speaker 1: Today's main story was reported by Riley Griffin. Original music 154 00:11:10,280 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 1: by Leo Sidron. Our editors are Francesco Levi and Rick Shine. 155 00:11:15,160 --> 00:11:19,800 Speaker 1: Francesco Levi is Bloomberg's head of podcasts. Thanks for listening.