WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Jean Boivin & Peter Tchir

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Single best idea, and today there were multiple best ideas

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<v Speaker 2>on the state of the market into earning season. Thank

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<v Speaker 2>you so much to our team for analysis of Gold

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<v Speaker 2>and Sacks, and we'll dive into the earning season tomorrow

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<v Speaker 2>and on through April as well. But overshadowing all of course,

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<v Speaker 2>was the news from the Eastern Mediterranean in a war.

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<v Speaker 2>In this word, maybe from books we read centuries ago

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<v Speaker 2>of blackcades. Jean Beauvain of Blackrock on the linkage of

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<v Speaker 2>our geopolitics to our markets.

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<v Speaker 3>But I do think that these are events that the

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<v Speaker 3>markets cannot really priced in one way or the other.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean, these are binary. If we're going to see

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<v Speaker 3>a bad outcome coming, then the market will react, But

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<v Speaker 3>until then, I think it's very costly to stone sideline

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<v Speaker 3>for for market participants. And there is a credible likely

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<v Speaker 3>scenario where things, you know, they escalate from here.

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<v Speaker 2>Jean Beauvain of Black Rock. Peter Shecher came by Academy

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<v Speaker 2>Securities is different with a real geopolitical and military bent.

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<v Speaker 2>Their board is made up of Sundry generals and Sundry

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<v Speaker 2>admirals as well, so Peter Cheer spends a lot of

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<v Speaker 2>time on the linkage of our international relations into the markets.

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<v Speaker 1>Here, Peter Cheer, I think the reality is if this

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<v Speaker 1>blockade can be implemented in such a way that the

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<v Speaker 1>ceasefire is not broken, it's fine. I think that's the risk, though,

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<v Speaker 1>is that this just causes some degree of escalation.

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<v Speaker 2>World War two analyze return seventeen percent per year, Korean

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<v Speaker 2>War eighteen percent per year, Vietnam single digit, six percent

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<v Speaker 2>per year, Gulf War twelve percent per year, I Rock

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<v Speaker 2>War ten percent per year. All up, stock markets do

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<v Speaker 2>well in military conflict, don't they.

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<v Speaker 1>They have in the past, and I think they could

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<v Speaker 1>do again over time with this one as well. We again,

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<v Speaker 1>we Russia, Ukraine have been in conflict and stocks have

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<v Speaker 1>generally done pretty well. I think this time, though, we've

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<v Speaker 1>got to be a little bit cautious, because I feel

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<v Speaker 1>like this is more once again a shifting of the

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<v Speaker 1>world order, and some of the prior conflicts actually shift

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<v Speaker 1>of the world order heavily in favor of the US.

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<v Speaker 1>This seems to be kind of a continuing This theme

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<v Speaker 1>of deglobalization.

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<v Speaker 2>Puresher there of academy securities. I really can't say enough

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<v Speaker 2>about the eclectic set of forward views in the stock

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<v Speaker 2>market that we heard today. It was not unusual, but

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<v Speaker 2>really front and center. The divergences of opinions that are

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<v Speaker 2>out there on podcasts, are on Apple, we're on Spotify.

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<v Speaker 2>On YouTube podcasts, it's single best idea.