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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan.

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Speaker 2: All Right, here we go. We're growing into spectacular. I'm

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Speaker 2: saying it's a cash touchdown.

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Speaker 3: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 3: go to win.

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Speaker 1: God, that's incredible, Big Banks, I'm all banks, I like

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Speaker 1: to make money.

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Speaker 3: All right.

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Speaker 4: That is the ultimate Kaban want to And we are underway.

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Speaker 2: Hello everyone, Welcome back to another NFL episode of the

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Speaker 2: Action Network Podcast. I'm Matthew Friedman, the editor in chief

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Speaker 2: of Fantasy Labs. I'm joined by two of the best

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Speaker 2: in the fantasy business, Seawn Corner and Chris Raybond. Shawn

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Speaker 2: is the Action Network director of Predictive Analytics and one

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Speaker 2: of the top nd season Fantasy football rankers for the

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Speaker 2: past half decade, and Chris is a senior editor and

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Speaker 2: analyst at the Action Network. Fellas, we have got a

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Speaker 2: special episode today, one that everyone will definitely want to

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Speaker 2: share with people who are getting ready for their fantasy drafts.

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Speaker 2: It is a Fantasy one oh one episode, or what

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Speaker 2: we're gently calling, not boldly, but gently calling the experts

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Speaker 2: guide to fantasy drafting os Maker Raybon Are you guys

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Speaker 2: ready to act like fantasy experts always know you were

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Speaker 2: born ready. If you like our recent episodes, do us

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Speaker 2: a favorite, rate and review the show, subscribe, unsubscribe, and resubscribe. Guys,

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Speaker 2: let's jump into it. So this is a kind of

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Speaker 2: big picture focused episode. If you are you know, a

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Speaker 2: quote unquote fantasy expert, I think you can still get

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Speaker 2: a lot out of the show. But this is maybe

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Speaker 2: intended a little more for the people who aren't quite

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Speaker 2: as hardcore, or for the people who maybe don't play

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Speaker 2: as much throughout the off season but are just kind

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Speaker 2: of getting into their draft prep part of the off season.

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Speaker 2: And I think we should start by talking about positional

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Speaker 2: strategy and that team to be like one of the

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Speaker 2: things that people focus on the most. Are you going

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Speaker 2: robust running back? Are you going zero RB? Are you

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Speaker 2: going late round quarterback? So there are lots of ways

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Speaker 2: that people can kind of structural ways that people can

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Speaker 2: approach their drafts. My question is in Raybond will start

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Speaker 2: with you, what are some of the big picture, kind

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Speaker 2: of positional focused ways in which you are approaching your drafts.

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Speaker 3: I think you want to get as many feature backs,

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Speaker 3: three down backs as you can early in the draft,

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Speaker 3: because they're not gonna be hurt by poor game script

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Speaker 3: if they get if a team gets down, they can

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Speaker 3: still catch the ball. They're getting a lot of usage,

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Speaker 3: and the number one thing that you can use to

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Speaker 3: predict running back production is always volume. It doesn't matter

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Speaker 3: if a guy is like, you know, three point nine

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Speaker 3: yards of carry or four point three yards of carry.

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Speaker 4: If he's getting twenty carries, he's gonna put up numbers.

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Speaker 3: You really want to get those running backs because there's

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Speaker 3: a lot less of a supply of them than wide

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Speaker 3: receivers where you have, you know, pretty much the NFL

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Speaker 3: has more into a shotgun league that you shot gun

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Speaker 3: on about sixty percent of the plays now, so there's

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Speaker 3: always three wide receivers on the field. That means ninety

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Speaker 3: six wide receivers when you look at all the teams,

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Speaker 3: and a lot of those guys will be viable. But

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Speaker 3: running backs, there's not many backs that are getting a

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Speaker 3: lot of volume, and so you always want to kind

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Speaker 3: of lock those guys up, even if it means taking

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Speaker 3: a couple of risks early in the draft, maybe in

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Speaker 3: those third, fourth, fifth rounds that frozen ponds here that

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Speaker 3: Sean likes to call it you know, it's you're gonna

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Speaker 3: need startuble games from your running back because running backs

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Speaker 3: get hurt more than any other position.

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Speaker 4: They average about two to four miss games a year.

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Speaker 3: So let's say you start three running backs or two

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Speaker 3: running backs in a flex, you're going to need you know,

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Speaker 3: those two running backs. But if they're gonna miss let's

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Speaker 3: say three games, now you're already down to you know,

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Speaker 3: that's six games are gonna be without, So you definitely

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Speaker 3: need like a third quality running back just to make

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Speaker 3: up those like expected six games missed. Then there's gonna

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Speaker 3: be times when you know there's tough matchups, you know,

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Speaker 3: unexpected things happen. Maybe a guy just doesn't perform up

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Speaker 3: to expectation, so you're gonna need probably even another running

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Speaker 3: back to cover for him. So you don't want to

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Speaker 3: just kind of overlook that and say, hey, I'll just

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Speaker 3: get one of these Maybe if you're in a PPR league,

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Speaker 3: you think I can just get one of these guys

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Speaker 3: that catches a lot of passes late in the draft

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Speaker 3: to be fine, you have to also think about the startability,

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Speaker 3: the predictability and of that startability, like you always want

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Speaker 3: to try to get those guys who are getting those

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Speaker 3: fifteen to twenty touches a week early in your draft

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Speaker 3: and just lock up or attempt to lock up as

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Speaker 3: many of them as you can.

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Speaker 2: Sean Raybond has talked a little bit about more of

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Speaker 2: a rope bust running back approach. What are your thoughts

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Speaker 2: on that, and then also do you have thoughts on

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Speaker 2: the quarterback position.

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Speaker 1: The running back position is the most important in fantasy.

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Speaker 1: It's the most volatile, you know, hardest to predict year

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Speaker 1: to year, but it's the most valuable at the same time.

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Speaker 1: Because of that, we have to remember running backs typically

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Speaker 1: get injured more, they get tackled the most out of

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Speaker 1: any position, and they're usually you know, the smallest frame

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Speaker 1: on the field. So that sort of a lens of

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Speaker 1: volatility is just the injury concern that every running back

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Speaker 1: is going to have. We're sort of in the era

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Speaker 1: of the running back by committee. Back in the glory

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Speaker 1: days when I first started playing fans football, there used

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Speaker 1: to be just one running back and they would get

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Speaker 1: every carry, and they would play every third down and

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Speaker 1: get every reception on the backfield. That just doesn't happen

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Speaker 1: as much anymore. So, these workhorse running backs they're super

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Speaker 1: valuable right now, so that's why they're a must draft

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Speaker 1: in my opinion, if you have the one of the

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Speaker 1: first three picks. Because of the variability and unpredictability, you

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Speaker 1: have some people that like to shy away from running

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Speaker 1: back early. I'm not one of those people. I typically

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Speaker 1: shy away from the frozen pond because I think those

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Speaker 1: are sort of the guys that we don't really know

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Speaker 1: the role, what the role will be. With that kind

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Speaker 1: of variability, I don't like spending early draft capital on them.

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Speaker 1: When it comes to quarterback, that's typically the highest scoring

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Speaker 1: position of fans football, but also the most predictable. So

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Speaker 1: that's why you don't see experts taking quarterbacks very early,

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Speaker 1: is because there isn't that much of a drop off

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Speaker 1: as there are at the running back position, So experts

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Speaker 1: typically wait till the end of the draft to take

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Speaker 1: a quarterback because there's plenty of valuable still, you know,

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Speaker 1: sitting there later. To the positions I actually don't even

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Speaker 1: draft at all in my fantasy drafts are kicker and

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Speaker 1: defense unless there's some rule where the league kind of

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Speaker 1: forces you to take that. I typically don't draft a

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Speaker 1: kicker defense and use the waiver wire to pick the

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Speaker 1: top kicker defense each week. By freeing up those two

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Speaker 1: extra slots of the draft, I just add two more

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Speaker 1: running backs. You know, heading into the season, I like

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Speaker 1: to have six to eight running backs on my team

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Speaker 1: and try to catch some late preseason injury where you know,

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Speaker 1: all of a sudden, I have a starting running back

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Speaker 1: of my team. So I like to load up as

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Speaker 1: much as possible at running back heading into the season.

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Speaker 2: Because of that, right, let's talk about the flex position there,

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Speaker 2: because I think running back, if you have a lot

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Speaker 2: of running backs, one of those guys is likely to

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Speaker 2: end up being your flex player. Sean Siegel, for wrote

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Speaker 2: it Is, has talked about like the race to the

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Speaker 2: flex and the flex is being kind of the key

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Speaker 2: to winning your leagues. Sean, do you have kind of

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Speaker 2: strategies when it comes to what you're doing at your

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Speaker 2: flex position.

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Speaker 1: I do not have any specific strategy heading into the season.

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Speaker 1: I think the flex position itself is much more of

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Speaker 1: a week to week decision that you're gonna have to make.

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Speaker 1: So I recommend you read my weekly rankings breakdown to

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Speaker 1: sort of see which players you should be plugging at

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Speaker 1: the flex. I actually add in some flex rankings in

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Speaker 1: that to help you out across positions. So flex position

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Speaker 1: isn't some strategy I have going in the season just

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Speaker 1: because every week you're gonna have various injuries, bye weeks,

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Speaker 1: depth chart shuffling around, So it's not something that you

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Speaker 1: can really plan out that farm events. I consider that

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Speaker 1: a week to week decision that you have to make

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Speaker 1: co'n set at all.

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Speaker 3: It's just, you know, you shouldn't have a rigid strategy.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be a week to week. Running backs are

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Speaker 3: on a weekly basis. Like coming into the week, running

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Speaker 3: backs are going to be more predictable in the sense

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Speaker 3: that we can count on them usually for you know,

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Speaker 3: more touches, whereas a wide receiver, we don't always know

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Speaker 3: how many targets they're going to get, and those tend

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Speaker 3: to vary a little more.

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Speaker 4: So running backs are usually ideal.

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Speaker 3: But that doesn't mean that, you know, you might have

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Speaker 3: just a bunch of good wide receivers and then you're

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Speaker 3: gonna need to play a wide receiver. So another reason

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Speaker 3: that you should be loading up on running backs so

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Speaker 3: you have those predictable players in a given week. Because

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Speaker 3: running backs in good matchups, they tend to produce. Like,

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Speaker 3: for example, running backs have better stats at home. They

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Speaker 3: tend to have better stats when their team is the

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Speaker 3: betting favorite as well, so, you know, because that puts

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Speaker 3: them in in good situations. Teams run a lot more

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Speaker 3: when they're in a competitive game or a game they

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Speaker 3: can win, which we'll talk about in a bit, So

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Speaker 3: running backs are ideal.

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Speaker 4: But yeah, don't don't ever get caught up in a

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Speaker 4: rigid strategy with the flex. Just play it week by week.

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Speaker 2: Obviously, every draft, every league is different. But do you

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Speaker 2: guys have preferences in terms of where you want to

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Speaker 2: be selecting in the first round, which obviously impacts where

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Speaker 2: you're selecting in the second round and third round and

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Speaker 2: so on. Would you rather have a pick near the top,

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Speaker 2: in the middle of the round or near the end

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Speaker 2: of the first round.

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Speaker 3: If you're trying to get better at fantasy drafting, the

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Speaker 3: last thing you need to really be focusing on is

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Speaker 3: the first your first round pick or your second round pick.

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Speaker 3: Those are the two easiest things to do in the draft,

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Speaker 3: and it's one where you know it's hard to mess up.

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Speaker 3: You know, if it messes up, it's usually just because

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Speaker 3: of some bad luck or something like that. But from

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Speaker 3: a strategic standpoint, I tend to like drafting a little

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Speaker 3: later in the first round and near the turn.

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Speaker 4: And for two reasons.

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Speaker 3: One is if I'm drafting right at the beginning, now

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Speaker 3: I also have to wait like twenty.

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Speaker 4: Picks to get more players.

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Speaker 3: And if I'm at the end of the round, I

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Speaker 3: can get two kind of top ten guys or top

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Speaker 3: twelve guys, which tends to be a little better than

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Speaker 3: like one top guy, and then two guys who are

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Speaker 3: just like fringe top twenty guys. Because when you're picking

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Speaker 3: at the top of the draft, it's just normal regression

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Speaker 3: to the mean. Like a guy you're drafting at the top,

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Speaker 3: the only place you can really go is down, you know.

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Speaker 3: So I tend to like being at the near the

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Speaker 3: turn because not only am I getting better players, but

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Speaker 3: also if you're at the turn and you're trying to

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Speaker 3: execute the strategy that Sean mentioned, which is wait for

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Speaker 3: a quarterback, because you're going to be able to get

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Speaker 3: a very usable quarterback. Wait in the draft and on

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Speaker 3: the waiver wire throughout the season for those positions that

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Speaker 3: you only need one player to start at. If you're

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Speaker 3: drafting and you're waiting on those positions. When it starts

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Speaker 3: to come time, we needed to select that guy. If

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Speaker 3: you're maybe there's one or two drafters in between your

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Speaker 3: spot and it coming back around to you on the turn,

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Speaker 3: you can now look and say, okay, well I need

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Speaker 3: a quarterback. But the two guys that are going to

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Speaker 3: draft after me, even though there's four picks between them,

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Speaker 3: they already have their quarterback. So I don't think they're

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Speaker 3: going to draft another quarterback here, and so I can

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Speaker 3: wait and I can get another running back or another

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Speaker 3: wide out or whoever else I need to and still

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Speaker 3: get good value on the quarter back I'm looking for.

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Speaker 3: So that's why I like it from a strategic standpoint,

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Speaker 3: just it helps you wait on those one starter positions

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Speaker 3: a bit longer.

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Speaker 2: Sean, Do you value those high volume running backs so

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Speaker 2: much that you prefer that the top picks in the

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Speaker 2: first round.

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Speaker 1: I really don't care if I end up with the

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Speaker 1: eighth pick. I'm not going to sit there and complain

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Speaker 1: about it. It's all about the middle to late rounds

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Speaker 1: and n season management. When it comes down to winning

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Speaker 1: a championship. I think the first few rounds it's gonna

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Speaker 1: come down to injury luck, there's really no bad picks

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Speaker 1: being taken in the first three rounds. I like being

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Speaker 1: in the middle of the draft, for the middle of

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Speaker 1: the late rounds, because when you have an end pick,

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Speaker 1: say the first pick or last pick, it tends to

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Speaker 1: force you to reach on players a little bit because

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Speaker 1: you don't know who's going to make it back, so

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Speaker 1: you kind of have to be a little more aggressive

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Speaker 1: on guys that you like. That's an advantage that the

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Speaker 1: middle rounds have. You're kind of more aware of who

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Speaker 1: might make it back to you, and it's a little

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Speaker 1: bit easier to sort of snag value in the middle

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Speaker 1: rounds because of that.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about ceilings and floors and ballatility, because I

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Speaker 2: kind of view these as two separate things. In season. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: week to week, I think there's a lot of there's

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Speaker 2: correlation between volatility and ceilings and floors like that just

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Speaker 2: makes like mathematical sense. But before the season starts, I

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Speaker 2: think people tend to conflate volatility and range of outcomes

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Speaker 2: a little more than they should. So, for instance, there's

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Speaker 2: the possibility that a running back might have a very

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Speaker 2: wide range of outcomes, but he could become the starter

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Speaker 2: and during the season he could week to week be

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Speaker 2: a very consistent player. Before the season starts, there is

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Speaker 2: a kind of a difference between range of outcomes in volatility.

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Speaker 2: But I'd be interested to hear what you guys think

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Speaker 2: and specifically when you are looking to target we'll say

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Speaker 2: kind of quote unquote like upside in your draft and

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Speaker 2: when you're looking to target floor stability in your draft. Sean,

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Speaker 2: let's start with you.

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Speaker 1: When it comes to season long, there's just so much

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Speaker 1: volatility already that I don't tend to think in terms

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Speaker 1: of you know, ceiling and four as much as you

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Speaker 1: may think there's just so much volatility, I tend to

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Speaker 1: save that energy for weekly projections in dfs, just because

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Speaker 1: there's less margin of air when it comes to that.

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Speaker 1: One of the main big picture things that I think

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Speaker 1: most novices sort of fail see is just the general

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Speaker 1: expectation of you know, or range of outcomes when it

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Speaker 1: comes to taking players. An example would be people taking

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Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey first overall this year. If he does not

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Speaker 1: put up the top running back numbers, I have people

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Speaker 1: reach out telling me he was such a bus this

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Speaker 1: year because he was the number five running back and

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Speaker 1: I think we might know that. You know, taking him

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Speaker 1: number one overall doesn't mean he's supposed to put up

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Speaker 1: the top points, but I think a lot of people

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Speaker 1: overlook that what that means when you're taking him first overall,

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Speaker 1: he's just basically the most likely running back to put

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Speaker 1: up in the most points. But I put his odds

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Speaker 1: around thirty five percent that actually end up being the

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Speaker 1: top scoring running back in twenty twenty. And you might think, well,

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Speaker 1: why would I take a guy with that low of odds,

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Speaker 1: And the answer is because he has the highest percent

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Speaker 1: chance of being the top scoring running back. No one

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Speaker 1: else has better odds. So just when you draft players,

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Speaker 1: you kind of have to know that wide range of

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Speaker 1: outcomes that's just inherent when it comes to fantasy football.

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Speaker 1: And I think just having that mentality will help you

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Speaker 1: sort of build a roster around that and you know,

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Speaker 1: do appropriate in season management things that we could talk

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Speaker 1: about a little bit later. But I think just having

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Speaker 1: an overall big picture on you know, just the expected

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Speaker 1: range of outcomes is massive when it comes to season

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Speaker 1: long fans football.

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Speaker 2: Raybon, I think you have an interesting way of approaching

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Speaker 2: cillings and floors when it comes to preseason like drafting

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Speaker 2: before the season actually starts, versus your weekly in season methodology.

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Speaker 2: Can you talk a little bit about how you're approaching

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Speaker 2: sillings and floors.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, so I actually do you like to look at

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Speaker 3: range of outcomes? Sean mentioned it's so important and every

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Speaker 3: player is going to have a certain range of outcomes

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Speaker 3: that you have to be aware of. So what I

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Speaker 3: like to do is I like to look at receptions

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Speaker 3: per game, yards per game. Those stats tend to correlate

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Speaker 3: a lot more from year to year. Touchdowns are what's

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Speaker 3: really volatile.

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Speaker 4: So I spend a.

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Speaker 3: Lot of time looking at projecting the catches and the yards,

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Speaker 3: or for running backs just yardage and then you know,

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Speaker 3: touchdown projections. I don't spend it as much time trying

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Speaker 3: to like nail them down as far as Okay, I

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Speaker 3: need exactly what this player.

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Speaker 4: Is going to produce.

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Speaker 3: I just want to know more what is the range

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Speaker 3: of outcomes that he's going to produce, because that informs

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Speaker 3: me about what the median should be. So if you

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Speaker 3: kind of understand that part of analyzing players, then it

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Speaker 3: gives you a lot more informed view. What a lot

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Speaker 3: of people do is they when they're trying to draft.

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Speaker 3: They say, hey, you know, why are you so low

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Speaker 3: on a guy, or why are you so high in

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Speaker 3: a guy? I think he's going to do exactly this, this,

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Speaker 3: and this, And I'm like, well, that's not exactly how

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Speaker 3: you should think about it, because if you're attached to

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Speaker 3: one out, you're going to start making a lot of mistakes.

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Speaker 3: If you're just acting with the knowledge of the different

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Speaker 3: ranges of outcomes, you're going to cut down on your

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Speaker 3: error rates because you're already looking at what the error

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Speaker 3: rates would be. Even us as experts, we are going

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Speaker 3: to whiff on a lot of projections. We're going to

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Speaker 3: make a lot of mistakes. There's no such thing as,

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Speaker 3: you know, being able to have a perfect draft, So

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Speaker 3: it's really about understanding that and then drafting to make

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Speaker 3: up for those mistakes, which is again why you know

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Speaker 3: Sean talked about a go and robust at running back,

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Speaker 3: you know, loading up with an extra running backs so

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Speaker 3: that you instead of a kicker, and defense so that

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Speaker 3: you might get an extra starting running back for free.

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Speaker 4: It's because we know that injuries are going to happen.

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Speaker 3: We know that some offensive lines sometimes just completely fall apart,

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Speaker 3: and a good running back just has a poor season.

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Speaker 4: So that's why it's important to think in that way.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and one thing kind of following up on it,

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Speaker 2: and that I think is attached to it. In some

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Speaker 2: ways sample sizes people miss thinking about range of outcomes

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Speaker 2: because they're not thinking of larger sample sizes. So for

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Speaker 2: since Melvin Gordon and Todd Gurley, if you looked at

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Speaker 2: them after their first two seasons, they had very similar numbers,

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Speaker 2: but most fantasy drafters looked at them differently entering year

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Speaker 2: three because they focused primarily on what the guys had

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Speaker 2: done the year before and not the total production for

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Speaker 2: years one and two. I think if you have a

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Speaker 2: larger sample, a larger scope, you tend to think a

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Speaker 2: little more holistically about the range of outcomes and what

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Speaker 2: guys could do, because, if anything, you can also just

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Speaker 2: see more seasons and you see like, oh, this guy,

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Speaker 2: even though he might have similar usage, or he's with

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Speaker 2: the same surrounding players or the same coach, the same

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Speaker 2: offensive system, one year, he did this, in another year

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Speaker 2: he did that. That gives you, I think, like a

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Speaker 2: much stronger sense of the range of outcomes. There. Let's

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Speaker 2: talk about the draft, so much focus is on the draft,

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Speaker 2: and that makes sense because that's how you get the

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Speaker 2: first iteration of your team, and especially for people who

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Speaker 2: are playing bestball, that's the only version of the team

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Speaker 2: that you get. What is the role of rankings? And

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Speaker 2: by the way, I should say again, we haves available

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Speaker 2: at actionnetwork dot com slash fantasy. What is the role

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Speaker 2: of rankings of ADP? How do you adjust on the

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Speaker 2: fly when you are in your draft.

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Speaker 3: This might be the most important point I wanted to

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Speaker 3: make in this podcast because so many people, Let's face it,

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Speaker 3: you're you're gonna just be drafting off expert rankings like

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Speaker 3: you don't have time to make your own projections and

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Speaker 3: comply your own rankings. So you have to understand how

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Speaker 3: to draft off rankings. And what this means is if

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Speaker 3: you see a player I'm high on, for example, Michael

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Speaker 3: Pittman Junior, I have Michael Pittman Junior ranked one hundred eighteenth,

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Speaker 3: which is a late ninth round.

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Speaker 4: Pick in twelve teen weeks.

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Speaker 3: When you get to the ninth round, you shouldn't be thinking, Okay,

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna draft Pittman because Raybond has him ranked there. No,

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Speaker 3: that would be wrong because his ADP is one hundred

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Speaker 3: and seventy first. Overall, you have to wait until deeper

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Speaker 3: in the double digit rounds. You have to remember that, Okay,

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Speaker 3: this is a screaming value that I can still wait

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Speaker 3: on and get a little later. That's how you draft

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Speaker 3: off rankings. You also have to factor in average draft positions.

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Speaker 3: So the best situations are always when your own rankings

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Speaker 3: or somebody else's whoever you're using, are so high or

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Speaker 3: low on, especially high on a player that even if you,

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Speaker 3: let's say, quote unquote reach by, maybe you take him

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Speaker 3: around before his ADP, you're still getting a value because

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Speaker 3: of that player is such you think that player is

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Speaker 3: such a value.

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Speaker 4: So that's how you use rankings.

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Speaker 3: You should never just use an ordered list and say, well,

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Speaker 3: this ranker has this player ranked, you know, ninetieth, and

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Speaker 3: so when I get to ninetieth and he's still here,

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Speaker 3: I'm taking him, like, you know, if he's ranked ninetieth,

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Speaker 3: but his average draft position isn't till the one hundred

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Speaker 3: and fiftieth pick, and you should be waiting until like

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Speaker 3: around the one hundred you know, thirtieth, one hundred and

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Speaker 3: fortieth pick to actually be taking that player. And if

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Speaker 3: you if you do that, that's how you start building

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Speaker 3: a team with plus net expected value because you're getting

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Speaker 3: value on all your picks. You're not just drafting off rankings,

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Speaker 3: which is where so many people go wrong, especially since

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Speaker 3: they use the the same rankings like ESPN or whatever

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Speaker 3: it is, you know, and they're just drafting off a list.

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Speaker 4: And that's you don't want to draft off the list.

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Speaker 3: You want to use that list to find the value

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Speaker 3: and compare it to ADP, and that's how you build

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Speaker 3: a good fantasy team.

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Speaker 2: Sean, do you have any follow up thoughts on that,

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Speaker 2: and also if you're curious, if you have thoughts on

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Speaker 2: how you decide how many players at each position you

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Speaker 2: are going to draft, like how optimally to construct at

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Speaker 2: least in the draft, what you might think of as

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Speaker 2: like the ideal percentages in terms of like positions for

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Speaker 2: your roster.

438
00:20:31,480 --> 00:20:33,840
Speaker 1: I don't really have a fixed number, but I definitely

439
00:20:33,920 --> 00:20:36,960
Speaker 1: like to have six s, eight running backs and zero

440
00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:40,080
Speaker 1: kickers or defenses. From there, I just kind of go

441
00:20:40,119 --> 00:20:41,720
Speaker 1: at the foot of the draft, you know, when it

442
00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:45,800
Speaker 1: comes to comparing rankings versus ADP. Like Raybaugh mentioned, I

443
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:48,800
Speaker 1: think this is super important and one of the biggest

444
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:51,560
Speaker 1: mistakes I see people make when they use my rankings,

445
00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 1: they typically use them to a t, so they're taking

446
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,359
Speaker 1: guys that they can get three or four rounds later.

447
00:20:57,480 --> 00:20:59,760
Speaker 1: And when when you do that, you're actually killing the

448
00:20:59,840 --> 00:21:03,080
Speaker 1: val that you That's what makes a great value pick

449
00:21:03,240 --> 00:21:06,000
Speaker 1: is getting him a couple of rounds later than he

450
00:21:06,040 --> 00:21:09,199
Speaker 1: should go. But when you do the opposite, you're actually

451
00:21:09,200 --> 00:21:13,199
Speaker 1: destroying the value. You're you know, not putting yourself in

452
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,320
Speaker 1: a good position. Another thing, though, is ADP can get

453
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,920
Speaker 1: kind of stale. So you know, when people are drafting

454
00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:21,680
Speaker 1: the next couple of weeks and we have a lot

455
00:21:21,680 --> 00:21:25,000
Speaker 1: of movement going on, a lot of injuries preseason games,

456
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:27,400
Speaker 1: you have to be aware of that. A good example

457
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:30,960
Speaker 1: of this is back in twenty seventeen drafting during some

458
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 1: breaking news during the game where Spencer Ware got hurt.

459
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,560
Speaker 1: You know, everybody knew it, and you know, Cream hunts

460
00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 1: ADPs reflective of, you know, the last two months of

461
00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,399
Speaker 1: drafting and not at that moment, so I kind of

462
00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,000
Speaker 1: had to update on the fly where I wanted to

463
00:21:47,080 --> 00:21:49,359
Speaker 1: draft him. You kind of throw ADP out the window.

464
00:21:49,400 --> 00:21:52,000
Speaker 1: And that's just an important point to make, is just

465
00:21:52,119 --> 00:21:54,719
Speaker 1: be aware of what guys the ADP might be stale

466
00:21:54,800 --> 00:21:57,879
Speaker 1: because any recent breaking news it takes a while for

467
00:21:57,960 --> 00:21:58,919
Speaker 1: ADP to catch up.

468
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 2: It's good as anyone is at drafting. Everyone makes some mistakes,

469
00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:08,640
Speaker 2: and even when you don't make mistakes, you still have

470
00:22:08,880 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 2: players who bust guys who go against you, just because

471
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,720
Speaker 2: that's what happens. And so I'd be interested in knowing

472
00:22:14,840 --> 00:22:17,480
Speaker 2: how it is that within the draft and then also

473
00:22:17,560 --> 00:22:22,560
Speaker 2: within the season, you look to mitigate your downside, knowing

474
00:22:22,960 --> 00:22:26,440
Speaker 2: that at some point in the draft you probably made

475
00:22:26,600 --> 00:22:30,800
Speaker 2: some suboptimal decisions or guys that you counted on didn't

476
00:22:30,840 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 2: pan out for whatever reason.

477
00:22:32,880 --> 00:22:34,720
Speaker 3: You just have to be aware of the supply and

478
00:22:34,960 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 3: the demand and of the error rate. So again, when

479
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:42,320
Speaker 3: you're drafting running backs, for example, there's a certain expectation

480
00:22:42,560 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 3: of missed games. When you're drafting quarterbacks, one of the

481
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,439
Speaker 3: reasons we wait is because and you learn this if

482
00:22:48,440 --> 00:22:50,880
Speaker 3: you play, if you play DFS, you know this. Quarterbacks

483
00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,600
Speaker 3: are extremely matchup dependent to where sure you have a

484
00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:56,160
Speaker 3: guy like a Patrick Mahomes crushing in every single matchup

485
00:22:56,440 --> 00:23:00,200
Speaker 3: or Deshaun Watson crushing in nearly every matchup, but then

486
00:23:00,200 --> 00:23:03,639
Speaker 3: you have twenty five other quarterbacks that were not, they'll

487
00:23:03,680 --> 00:23:07,040
Speaker 3: tend to perform well in good matchups. They tend to

488
00:23:07,040 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 3: be at home more, they tend to skew towards being

489
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,159
Speaker 3: a favorite more, but not always. The bottom line is

490
00:23:12,160 --> 00:23:14,480
Speaker 3: you're gonna you're going to want to switch guys out

491
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:17,000
Speaker 3: based on matchup. That's another reason why you don't want

492
00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 3: to draft quarterbacks early, is because just because you draft

493
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,480
Speaker 3: a quarterback early, it doesn't even mean that he's going

494
00:23:22,560 --> 00:23:25,200
Speaker 3: to be matchup proof or that he's gonna stay healthy.

495
00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,399
Speaker 4: This is football, So that's another thing. You have to

496
00:23:27,400 --> 00:23:28,800
Speaker 4: be aware of the injury chances.

497
00:23:28,840 --> 00:23:31,600
Speaker 3: And I think in general, injuries get a little bit overlooked,

498
00:23:31,680 --> 00:23:34,760
Speaker 3: especially to someone who's a very more casual drafter who

499
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:37,800
Speaker 3: kind of unplugs from NFL season for seven eight months

500
00:23:37,840 --> 00:23:40,000
Speaker 3: and just kind of comes back when it's time to draft.

501
00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:43,000
Speaker 3: Is that there's all these injuries and players recovering from

502
00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,440
Speaker 3: different things and injuries that are occurring, and you kind

503
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:47,880
Speaker 3: of just like, oh, well, as long as he's there

504
00:23:47,920 --> 00:23:50,280
Speaker 3: and you know he's on my list, I can take

505
00:23:50,320 --> 00:23:51,880
Speaker 3: him and he'll he'll recover and he'll be fine. Well,

506
00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:53,600
Speaker 3: it's not always like that, and then the players that

507
00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:56,000
Speaker 3: are healthy. You can't count on them to stay healthy.

508
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,560
Speaker 3: Even when you look at something like the correlation of

509
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:01,119
Speaker 3: games played from one year to the next, there really

510
00:24:01,160 --> 00:24:05,159
Speaker 3: is none. Essentially, you can't predict injuries from one season

511
00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 3: to the next. Some guys do get injured more often,

512
00:24:07,880 --> 00:24:09,399
Speaker 3: but that doesn't mean that you're gonna be able to

513
00:24:09,440 --> 00:24:11,960
Speaker 3: sit here and say, Okay, because this guy didn't get

514
00:24:11,960 --> 00:24:14,240
Speaker 3: injured or did get injured, he is or isn't again,

515
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,199
Speaker 3: And so therefore you have to prepare for that. And

516
00:24:17,280 --> 00:24:19,879
Speaker 3: especially at the running back position and a quarterback, you

517
00:24:19,920 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 3: know you're gonna have all these options that it doesn't

518
00:24:22,200 --> 00:24:25,200
Speaker 3: make sense to kind of blow a higher pick on

519
00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,719
Speaker 3: a quarterback just because it feels safe, when in fact,

520
00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:30,959
Speaker 3: it's a lot safer to kind of account for the

521
00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:33,720
Speaker 3: your kind of ever rate with running backs and to

522
00:24:33,760 --> 00:24:36,800
Speaker 3: an extent, wide receivers at later parts in the draft

523
00:24:37,040 --> 00:24:39,639
Speaker 3: by you know, loading up on those guys because remember

524
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:41,720
Speaker 3: you need that, you need those touches and for the

525
00:24:41,800 --> 00:24:44,639
Speaker 3: running backs, you need those targets. For the wide receivers,

526
00:24:44,720 --> 00:24:47,679
Speaker 3: and those guys, they're gonna go down and sometimes you're

527
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:50,840
Speaker 3: just gonna again hit a bust or something like that.

528
00:24:50,880 --> 00:24:55,760
Speaker 3: So the best way to avoid those risks. It sounds counterintuitive,

529
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,600
Speaker 3: but it's actually to just take more quote unquote risks

530
00:24:58,960 --> 00:25:02,159
Speaker 3: on more running back and more wide receivers and have

531
00:25:02,359 --> 00:25:04,840
Speaker 3: a deep roster and you're going to be fine at

532
00:25:04,880 --> 00:25:07,520
Speaker 3: quarterback unless you're in like a two quarterback league, and

533
00:25:07,520 --> 00:25:11,359
Speaker 3: that's a whole different strategy. But in a traditional league,

534
00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,440
Speaker 3: you just the best thing you can do to kind

535
00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:16,240
Speaker 3: of improve your chances to win is just wait on

536
00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,600
Speaker 3: a quarterback and build depth corner.

537
00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:21,280
Speaker 2: How is it that you try to mitigate any mistakes

538
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:23,000
Speaker 2: that you might make during the draft.

539
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,120
Speaker 1: When I draft, I figure I'm going to be making mistakes.

540
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,920
Speaker 1: Whenever I look back at the draft from the previous year,

541
00:25:28,960 --> 00:25:30,919
Speaker 1: I'm like, oh god, I took that guy in the

542
00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:34,920
Speaker 1: fourth round. You know, things happen, and I think this

543
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 1: is where, you know, the handcuff strategy for running backs

544
00:25:37,880 --> 00:25:40,639
Speaker 1: really comes into play. If you take the Ezekiel Elliott in

545
00:25:40,680 --> 00:25:42,479
Speaker 1: the first round, the faid of your team is going

546
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:44,440
Speaker 1: to be dependent on his health, so you'd want to

547
00:25:44,480 --> 00:25:46,600
Speaker 1: create a safety net for your team. If you take

548
00:25:46,640 --> 00:25:49,960
Speaker 1: his backup, Tony Pollard, he'd become a low end RB

549
00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 1: one and the event ze goes down and that would

550
00:25:53,000 --> 00:25:55,400
Speaker 1: help mitigate that loss a little bit. So I think

551
00:25:55,480 --> 00:25:59,520
Speaker 1: handcuffing is a pretty good strategy to kind of have

552
00:25:59,720 --> 00:26:03,280
Speaker 1: sort of safety net and situations like that. And also

553
00:26:03,720 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 1: when it comes to the quarterback position in general, I

554
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:10,680
Speaker 1: typically have my starting quarterback be a more safe guy,

555
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,399
Speaker 1: and then my backup I try to just swing for

556
00:26:13,440 --> 00:26:16,840
Speaker 1: the fences and just take a ridiculous upside guy because

557
00:26:16,840 --> 00:26:19,320
Speaker 1: if he doesn't pan out, you can usually drop them

558
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,000
Speaker 1: and pick up some boring guy that can just fill

559
00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,000
Speaker 1: in on the waiver wires. So I typically make a

560
00:26:25,040 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: lot more aggressive swing for the fence's picks later in

561
00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,200
Speaker 1: the draft because you really have nothing to lose.

562
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:35,240
Speaker 2: Let's talk a little bit about research and preparation. Everyone

563
00:26:35,320 --> 00:26:37,520
Speaker 2: is kind of different with their process in terms of

564
00:26:38,080 --> 00:26:41,320
Speaker 2: how they consume content and what they consume and if

565
00:26:41,320 --> 00:26:43,600
Speaker 2: they do mock drafts or if they do a lot

566
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:46,040
Speaker 2: of best ball leagues to try to prepare for the

567
00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:49,560
Speaker 2: standard redraft leagues they do later, Sean, what is your

568
00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,600
Speaker 2: general process for preparing for drafts.

569
00:26:53,160 --> 00:26:57,280
Speaker 1: Mock drafts are super important. It's definitely good to sort

570
00:26:57,320 --> 00:27:01,639
Speaker 1: of practice what we discussed earlier. Balance and sing draft rankings,

571
00:27:02,040 --> 00:27:05,120
Speaker 1: and where people go. When you do a mock draft,

572
00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:08,080
Speaker 1: you can kind of see how far guys can fall,

573
00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,720
Speaker 1: and then to sort of see where you're kind of

574
00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:15,120
Speaker 1: liking certain positions. You want to try to practice at

575
00:27:15,119 --> 00:27:18,239
Speaker 1: different parts of the draft too, So maybe do a

576
00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,720
Speaker 1: mock draft where you have the first pick, and a

577
00:27:20,760 --> 00:27:22,920
Speaker 1: mock draft where you're sort of the middle of the draft,

578
00:27:22,960 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: and then a mock pick you know, at the end

579
00:27:24,840 --> 00:27:27,080
Speaker 1: of the draft. I think getting sort of the different

580
00:27:27,119 --> 00:27:30,919
Speaker 1: perspective from each draft slot is super important and helps you,

581
00:27:30,920 --> 00:27:34,560
Speaker 1: you know, plan out your attack because your draftic does

582
00:27:34,600 --> 00:27:37,080
Speaker 1: dictate sort of what kind of team you end up with,

583
00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:40,359
Speaker 1: so it's I think it's super important to practice those.

584
00:27:40,800 --> 00:27:44,080
Speaker 2: So I think one question might be mock draft versus

585
00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:48,240
Speaker 2: just consulting ADP. Do you think that there actually is

586
00:27:48,320 --> 00:27:52,000
Speaker 2: a lot of practice to going through the process of

587
00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:55,439
Speaker 2: having to select a team versus just consulting ADP and

588
00:27:55,480 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 2: having an awareness of the general range in which players

589
00:27:58,440 --> 00:27:59,240
Speaker 2: are being drafted.

590
00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:03,000
Speaker 1: No, I think the practice does make perfect. In this case.

591
00:28:03,119 --> 00:28:06,560
Speaker 1: You kind of see which situations certain players always end

592
00:28:06,640 --> 00:28:09,520
Speaker 1: up you're having to decide on, so you might find

593
00:28:09,640 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 1: kind of a tier where you kind of want to

594
00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,119
Speaker 1: dig in a little bit deeper and sort of see

595
00:28:14,320 --> 00:28:16,679
Speaker 1: which guys you rather end up with, because you know

596
00:28:16,760 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 1: a lot of drafts, you have a minute and thirty

597
00:28:19,119 --> 00:28:21,439
Speaker 1: seconds to make a pick, so you don't want to panic,

598
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 1: so you want to stick with your rankings as much

599
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,800
Speaker 1: as possible. But I think, you know, just doing a

600
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 1: mock draft sort of gets rid of all those kinks

601
00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:30,560
Speaker 1: that you might encounter. If you don't practice at all,

602
00:28:30,800 --> 00:28:32,040
Speaker 1: it could turn a disaster.

603
00:28:32,640 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's the mock drafts are really important because again,

604
00:28:36,680 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 3: like what Sean said, it helps you to visualize how

605
00:28:40,520 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 3: to actually execute during the draft, which is gonna you're

606
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 3: gonna be under pressure unless you know absolutely nothing about anything.

607
00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:49,360
Speaker 3: A lot of times I would suggest you know, even

608
00:28:49,360 --> 00:28:52,479
Speaker 3: as somebody that you know is a producer of fantasy content,

609
00:28:52,480 --> 00:28:54,360
Speaker 3: I would say, hey, if you know a little bit

610
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,920
Speaker 3: about football, but you're just like searching out endlessly for

611
00:28:56,960 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 3: content trying to figure out who to draft. Like, just

612
00:28:59,120 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 3: do a mock d because it's gonna be so eye

613
00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:05,160
Speaker 3: opening for you, and there's a little shortcut. Well, first

614
00:29:05,160 --> 00:29:06,520
Speaker 3: of all, I should say that when you do a

615
00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 3: mock draft, actually finish the draft, because I see so

616
00:29:09,160 --> 00:29:11,160
Speaker 3: many people do mock drafts, and they mock like the

617
00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 3: first five rounds, and then they leave the mock draft

618
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:15,800
Speaker 3: like that. Again, like the drafts are won in the

619
00:29:15,840 --> 00:29:19,800
Speaker 3: middle and the late rounds, and so the early rounds

620
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,280
Speaker 3: are the places where the players are the most predictable

621
00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 3: and they have the highest floors, and a lot of

622
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:28,080
Speaker 3: times if you make a bad pick there, it's not

623
00:29:28,120 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 3: necessarily because you're a bad fancy drafter as much as

624
00:29:31,160 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 3: you just had bad luck and you know, somebody got

625
00:29:33,480 --> 00:29:35,320
Speaker 3: hurt or whatever not. But the draft is won in

626
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:36,880
Speaker 3: those middle to the late rounds. And so a short

627
00:29:36,960 --> 00:29:39,040
Speaker 3: cut I have for people, even if you don't want

628
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:43,360
Speaker 3: a mock draft, what I would suggest is upside down draft.

629
00:29:43,440 --> 00:29:45,520
Speaker 3: And what I mean by that is get a get

630
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:47,240
Speaker 3: a withst of ADP. Make sure it's up to date.

631
00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 4: That was a really important point that Sean made. Make

632
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:49,920
Speaker 4: sure it's up to date.

633
00:29:50,360 --> 00:29:52,240
Speaker 3: But in general, it just you need to have a

634
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 3: sense of where players are going and then look and

635
00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 3: start from the bottom, not the top. Start to look

636
00:29:56,920 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 3: at what players are values starting from the bottom. So,

637
00:30:01,240 --> 00:30:04,280
Speaker 3: for example, the old adage of wait till the last

638
00:30:04,280 --> 00:30:06,680
Speaker 3: two rounds to draft kicker in defense, which Sean just

639
00:30:06,960 --> 00:30:09,120
Speaker 3: you know, made even better by just don't even draft them.

640
00:30:09,200 --> 00:30:10,360
Speaker 4: You know why did you do that.

641
00:30:10,440 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 3: It's because there's always going to be a surplus of

642
00:30:13,080 --> 00:30:15,640
Speaker 3: those guys available at the end, right, So you have

643
00:30:15,760 --> 00:30:18,080
Speaker 3: to do that same thing for the rest of the

644
00:30:18,160 --> 00:30:20,480
Speaker 3: rounds of your draft. So let's say you start, and

645
00:30:20,520 --> 00:30:23,560
Speaker 3: you're starting in the fourteenth round, and you're looking at

646
00:30:23,560 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 3: who's going to be available in a PPR draft. So

647
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:28,400
Speaker 3: now you say, Okay, I can bank on being able

648
00:30:28,440 --> 00:30:30,440
Speaker 3: to get a wide receiver in this fourteenth round, some

649
00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:33,080
Speaker 3: good value here. Now I'll go to the thirteenth round,

650
00:30:33,080 --> 00:30:35,320
Speaker 3: and you kind of repeat that process all the way

651
00:30:35,400 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 3: up to the top of the draft, and that will

652
00:30:37,160 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 3: give you a lot clearer picture of what to expect,

653
00:30:39,560 --> 00:30:42,080
Speaker 3: and you won't be caught as off guard when you're

654
00:30:42,120 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 3: just drafting for the first time because you have a

655
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:47,920
Speaker 3: really good idea of how to make your early picks,

656
00:30:48,000 --> 00:30:49,000
Speaker 3: because you know how.

657
00:30:48,920 --> 00:30:50,600
Speaker 4: The draft will unfold in a sense.

658
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 3: And I think that's really important, and it's a reason

659
00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,040
Speaker 3: why Sean, myself, you Freeman, we all kind of tell

660
00:30:56,040 --> 00:30:58,040
Speaker 3: people not to go into the draft with too rigid

661
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:02,120
Speaker 3: of a strategy because all these kind of trendy strategies

662
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 3: are top down strategies that you're kind of focused on

663
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:08,680
Speaker 3: what to do early in the draft. It's really not

664
00:31:08,800 --> 00:31:10,480
Speaker 3: looking at what you're gonna do later in the draft.

665
00:31:10,520 --> 00:31:12,600
Speaker 3: And that's why I always love the late round quarterback

666
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:17,400
Speaker 3: because it's so sound in that it's thinking about what's

667
00:31:17,440 --> 00:31:19,640
Speaker 3: going to happen at the end of the draft. A

668
00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:22,120
Speaker 3: lot of these other other strategies are so reactionary in

669
00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 3: the sense that they're just like, oh, well, this is

670
00:31:23,960 --> 00:31:25,680
Speaker 3: what's going on at the top of the draft, and

671
00:31:25,720 --> 00:31:26,920
Speaker 3: this is how I have to react. And then when

672
00:31:26,960 --> 00:31:28,920
Speaker 3: you start to get to the middle and rounds, which

673
00:31:28,920 --> 00:31:32,200
Speaker 3: is where drafts are really wanted and lost, you have

674
00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:33,960
Speaker 3: no idea what you're doing. So I'd say take an

675
00:31:33,960 --> 00:31:36,240
Speaker 3: ADP with even if you don't mock, and just take

676
00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:38,880
Speaker 3: an ADP with start from the bottom, go up, and

677
00:31:38,960 --> 00:31:41,560
Speaker 3: just look at the value that's there in each round

678
00:31:41,600 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 3: and what you think you would do on each round

679
00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:45,320
Speaker 3: of the draft. Start from the bottom and going the

680
00:31:45,320 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 3: way up, and I guarantee you will improve your your

681
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:48,560
Speaker 3: real draft.

682
00:31:48,920 --> 00:31:51,760
Speaker 2: Totally agree with what you said there. It is ironic

683
00:31:51,800 --> 00:31:55,120
Speaker 2: that the draft obviously starts at the beginning of the draft,

684
00:31:55,160 --> 00:31:58,680
Speaker 2: like the top rounds, but the bottom rounds kind of

685
00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 2: mentally or I think, where you want to begin the

686
00:32:01,000 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 2: preparation for your draft. And one thing that makes I

687
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:08,040
Speaker 2: think late round quarterback very strong is that it's not

688
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:12,000
Speaker 2: just that you can find a quarterback late in the draft,

689
00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 2: is that you can find multiple quarterbacks late in the draft,

690
00:32:15,760 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 2: so that if one is gone, it kind of doesn't matter.

691
00:32:19,160 --> 00:32:20,920
Speaker 2: Maybe that's the one you would have wanted, but there

692
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:24,280
Speaker 2: are still other guys there. You have multiple outs, And

693
00:32:24,320 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 2: so I think if you're building your strategy from the

694
00:32:27,160 --> 00:32:31,120
Speaker 2: bottom up, you want to identify like a range, like

695
00:32:31,280 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 2: several options that you could get in that round where

696
00:32:34,520 --> 00:32:36,600
Speaker 2: you would be satisfied, because one of the things that

697
00:32:36,680 --> 00:32:39,520
Speaker 2: does happen sometimes is if you get your heart set

698
00:32:39,560 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 2: on a particular guy in around, someone could snipe him

699
00:32:43,160 --> 00:32:45,760
Speaker 2: around or two early. So when you're building from the

700
00:32:45,760 --> 00:32:49,080
Speaker 2: bottom up, you want to give yourself multiple guys. You know,

701
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:51,480
Speaker 2: three or four wide receivers that you would be fine

702
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:53,880
Speaker 2: taking in the fourteenth round. So I think you want

703
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 2: to give yourself contingencies for all of those bottom rounds

704
00:32:57,800 --> 00:33:01,320
Speaker 2: where regardless of what happens up top in the first

705
00:33:01,320 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 2: half of the draft, you know that in the second

706
00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,680
Speaker 2: half of the draft, you still have multiple guys that

707
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:09,760
Speaker 2: you can take, and you still would have executed your

708
00:33:09,760 --> 00:33:12,880
Speaker 2: strategy in a way that gives you a really good

709
00:33:12,960 --> 00:33:17,120
Speaker 2: chance to enter your season with a strong roster. Let's

710
00:33:17,160 --> 00:33:20,920
Speaker 2: talk a little bit about game scripts, right, So, once

711
00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:24,080
Speaker 2: the season has started week to week, one of the

712
00:33:24,160 --> 00:33:26,200
Speaker 2: main ways in what you want to think about who

713
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:29,000
Speaker 2: it is that you're starting on your roster is by

714
00:33:29,280 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 2: anticipating how the game might play out, by looking at

715
00:33:33,640 --> 00:33:35,960
Speaker 2: who is favored, by looking at some of the matchups,

716
00:33:36,000 --> 00:33:39,160
Speaker 2: and thinking about what what that might mean for the

717
00:33:39,240 --> 00:33:42,480
Speaker 2: running game, in the passing game for the different teams.

718
00:33:43,040 --> 00:33:46,200
Speaker 2: So let's talk a little bit about game scripts and Ravon,

719
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:49,080
Speaker 2: let's start with you. What are your thoughts on them?

720
00:33:49,120 --> 00:33:52,200
Speaker 2: How do you kind of evaluate them for the purposes

721
00:33:52,240 --> 00:33:54,800
Speaker 2: of thinking about who you're starting or who you're sitting,

722
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 2: or in dfs, who it is that you might be

723
00:33:57,400 --> 00:33:58,760
Speaker 2: rostering and investing.

724
00:33:58,840 --> 00:34:02,840
Speaker 3: In game scripts, they essentially just refer to you know

725
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:06,880
Speaker 3: what a team's run pass ratio will be depending on

726
00:34:06,880 --> 00:34:10,280
Speaker 3: the situation in the game. And so this is crucial

727
00:34:11,719 --> 00:34:16,439
Speaker 3: most often for running backs, particularly in standard leagues, when

728
00:34:16,520 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 3: you have running backs that they don't necessarily catch a

729
00:34:19,239 --> 00:34:22,680
Speaker 3: lot of passes, so if the game script goes negative,

730
00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:25,799
Speaker 3: which means their team gets down, many times you will

731
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 3: see them either come off the field or.

732
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:30,120
Speaker 4: Just not be as productive.

733
00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:31,920
Speaker 3: And so you always want to think about that when

734
00:34:31,960 --> 00:34:35,120
Speaker 3: you're choosing who to start, especially at the running back position.

735
00:34:35,719 --> 00:34:38,719
Speaker 3: So the way you do this is you can look

736
00:34:38,760 --> 00:34:42,160
Speaker 3: at the Vegas lines. That's a key indicator. A team

737
00:34:42,200 --> 00:34:45,280
Speaker 3: that is a favorite will tend to have more positive

738
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:48,000
Speaker 3: game script than not. But you also have to keep

739
00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:51,120
Speaker 3: in mind too that there is ever rates within that too.

740
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:53,520
Speaker 3: So a lot of times people make the mistake in

741
00:34:53,560 --> 00:34:57,200
Speaker 3: dfs going you know, Okay, this guy's on a favorite,

742
00:34:57,480 --> 00:34:58,600
Speaker 3: he's gonna have good game script.

743
00:34:58,640 --> 00:34:59,399
Speaker 4: I'm going to play him.

744
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:03,360
Speaker 3: That's what you have to also know how often Vegas

745
00:35:03,400 --> 00:35:05,200
Speaker 3: is wrong, and a lot of times that can help

746
00:35:05,239 --> 00:35:06,719
Speaker 3: you make a contrarian play. And it can be the

747
00:35:06,760 --> 00:35:09,680
Speaker 3: same thing in your season long roster. You really do

748
00:35:09,719 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 3: want to give some thought to who to start each week.

749
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:15,120
Speaker 3: I don't like the whole just start your studs or

750
00:35:15,160 --> 00:35:17,399
Speaker 3: start the guys you drafted early in the draft. It's

751
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 3: so matchup dependent and it's not just gamescript. Gamescript is

752
00:35:20,480 --> 00:35:23,440
Speaker 3: just kind of the overarching thing. But in general, fantasy

753
00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:27,120
Speaker 3: is extremely matchup dependent. And if you can just have

754
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,480
Speaker 3: a little bit of an edge and think about that

755
00:35:29,520 --> 00:35:31,160
Speaker 3: for a couple of minutes when you set your lineup

756
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 3: each week, versus just started plugging in the guys you

757
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,160
Speaker 3: drafted first, or plugging in you know whoever your quote

758
00:35:36,200 --> 00:35:38,759
Speaker 3: unquote studs might be, you're gonna give yourself an edge

759
00:35:38,760 --> 00:35:42,920
Speaker 3: because almost every player in the league is matchup dependent,

760
00:35:43,000 --> 00:35:44,799
Speaker 3: except for like the guys that are going to go

761
00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 3: in the first round and maybe some of the second round,

762
00:35:47,200 --> 00:35:48,319
Speaker 3: or that's really it.

763
00:35:48,400 --> 00:35:50,120
Speaker 4: Everyone else. It really depends.

764
00:35:50,120 --> 00:35:53,240
Speaker 3: If you look at splits between home, road, favorite, underdog,

765
00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:57,200
Speaker 3: all these things, there's a huge skew towards being at home,

766
00:35:57,280 --> 00:35:59,840
Speaker 3: and being a favorite is even better. With passing, it

767
00:36:00,000 --> 00:36:02,560
Speaker 3: doesn't matter quite as much the game script per se,

768
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 3: because you pass to win, to get it lead, you

769
00:36:06,520 --> 00:36:08,279
Speaker 3: should be trying to Teams try to pass to get

770
00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:08,600
Speaker 3: a lead.

771
00:36:08,640 --> 00:36:10,000
Speaker 4: They tend to pass to get leads.

772
00:36:10,480 --> 00:36:12,359
Speaker 3: Passing is more common in the NFL, and then if

773
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:15,440
Speaker 3: a team gets behind, they'll still be passing. So I

774
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:18,919
Speaker 3: don't think you need to say make the mistake of saying, hey, oh,

775
00:36:19,040 --> 00:36:19,560
Speaker 3: this team.

776
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:20,360
Speaker 4: Is a big favorite.

777
00:36:20,440 --> 00:36:22,719
Speaker 3: I don't want to target their passing game because they're

778
00:36:22,719 --> 00:36:25,320
Speaker 3: going to get a lead. Well, hey, if they're getting

779
00:36:25,320 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 3: a big enough lead to where they can sit on

780
00:36:26,880 --> 00:36:30,000
Speaker 3: the ball, they probably got it through passing. So that's fine.

781
00:36:30,000 --> 00:36:31,880
Speaker 3: But it's the running backs you really if you have.

782
00:36:32,000 --> 00:36:34,439
Speaker 3: And that's another reason to get robust on the running backs.

783
00:36:34,440 --> 00:36:36,680
Speaker 3: Get those six to eight running backs that Sean mentioned

784
00:36:36,760 --> 00:36:39,160
Speaker 3: is that you want to have choices each week. And

785
00:36:39,200 --> 00:36:41,279
Speaker 3: another thing I want to mention too is it's kind

786
00:36:41,280 --> 00:36:44,560
Speaker 3: of a myths that some of these receiving backs, particularly

787
00:36:44,560 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 3: third downbacks, only do well.

788
00:36:47,000 --> 00:36:48,320
Speaker 4: When there's negative game script.

789
00:36:48,320 --> 00:36:52,200
Speaker 3: That's not true because a third down back, the concept

790
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:56,520
Speaker 3: of a third down back is actually very inefficient in practice.

791
00:36:56,640 --> 00:36:59,800
Speaker 3: If you look at the numbers when NFL teams throw

792
00:36:59,880 --> 00:37:03,239
Speaker 3: to or running backs on third downs, those tend to

793
00:37:03,360 --> 00:37:07,560
Speaker 3: result in non conversions, which lead to punts or you know,

794
00:37:07,560 --> 00:37:09,879
Speaker 3: field goal attempts or whatever more often than not then

795
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 3: you know, throwing to a tight end or a wide receiver.

796
00:37:13,200 --> 00:37:14,719
Speaker 4: So if you're banking on a.

797
00:37:14,680 --> 00:37:16,920
Speaker 3: Player, oh he's a third down back, this team is

798
00:37:16,960 --> 00:37:19,960
Speaker 3: expected to be down, that's not actually optimal because if

799
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,120
Speaker 3: every time he's catching a pass on third down, he's

800
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,439
Speaker 3: not likely to actually be picking up the first down.

801
00:37:24,640 --> 00:37:27,080
Speaker 3: So you're getting a couple of points for that, but

802
00:37:27,120 --> 00:37:30,160
Speaker 3: you're not getting any closer to getting that touchdown because

803
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:32,120
Speaker 3: the team is punting. And a lot of times what

804
00:37:32,160 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 3: happens is when the team is the negative game script,

805
00:37:34,640 --> 00:37:36,880
Speaker 3: everyone's bad. You know, when you get in a really

806
00:37:37,080 --> 00:37:40,239
Speaker 3: poor situation, A lot of times just the whole team underperforms.

807
00:37:40,239 --> 00:37:42,000
Speaker 3: They don't get near the red zone, there's not many

808
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:44,680
Speaker 3: touchdown scores. That's not optimal. So you want a team

809
00:37:44,719 --> 00:37:46,840
Speaker 3: that can kind of continue to keep the foot on

810
00:37:46,880 --> 00:37:49,080
Speaker 3: their gas, and that sends to happen more when there's

811
00:37:49,120 --> 00:37:50,600
Speaker 3: positive game script than negative.

812
00:37:50,840 --> 00:37:54,319
Speaker 2: So I agree almost entirely with what Raybaond said, with

813
00:37:54,360 --> 00:37:58,000
Speaker 2: one small amendment. For things like home and road and

814
00:37:58,280 --> 00:38:03,960
Speaker 2: Vegas numbers, those are much more important than the individual matchups,

815
00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:07,400
Speaker 2: except for maybe in the extreme, like I think for basketball,

816
00:38:07,600 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 2: who you're playing against is actually really important, and for

817
00:38:11,360 --> 00:38:14,279
Speaker 2: something like baseball, who is pitching against you as a

818
00:38:14,320 --> 00:38:19,160
Speaker 2: batter is really important. But for football, ironically, coaches maybe

819
00:38:19,239 --> 00:38:23,440
Speaker 2: aren't as good at exploiting the weaknesses of opposing defenses

820
00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:26,360
Speaker 2: as they should be unless the team is playing a

821
00:38:26,440 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 2: defensive unit like that in the extreme is really like

822
00:38:30,320 --> 00:38:33,759
Speaker 2: very good or very bad. It doesn't impact so much

823
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 2: like the efficiency or maybe the touches or the opportunities

824
00:38:38,600 --> 00:38:41,000
Speaker 2: you could project for the players. There tends to be

825
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:43,799
Speaker 2: like a pretty wide kind of median there. So what

826
00:38:43,840 --> 00:38:47,200
Speaker 2: would matter, not necessarily is who they are playing. I

827
00:38:47,200 --> 00:38:49,360
Speaker 2: guess it matters to the extent that it impacts the

828
00:38:49,440 --> 00:38:52,399
Speaker 2: vegas lines and things like that, but it doesn't matter

829
00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:55,280
Speaker 2: so much for some of the other things that people

830
00:38:55,360 --> 00:38:58,520
Speaker 2: might project. But we have on here the projection Master,

831
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 2: so I'd like to get Sean's thoughts on that.

832
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:05,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, So, I mean it's a case by case basis

833
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 1: and it really depends on the team matchup. But you

834
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,040
Speaker 1: mentioned it like home away splits. An example would be

835
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:15,080
Speaker 1: Big Ben typically has done way worse on the road

836
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: and it's just a beast at home. There are certain

837
00:39:17,560 --> 00:39:21,160
Speaker 1: coaches like Bill Belichick, you know, the Patriots definitely are

838
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 1: good at exploiting the defense that they're playing's weaknesses, so

839
00:39:24,880 --> 00:39:27,720
Speaker 1: that's highly factoring as well. But you're right, I think

840
00:39:27,880 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 1: sometimes people overestimate individual matchups, But there's no blanket assumption

841
00:39:34,560 --> 00:39:36,680
Speaker 1: that you can make across it all. It's just there's

842
00:39:36,719 --> 00:39:40,160
Speaker 1: so many factors that go into it that I'm incorporating

843
00:39:40,160 --> 00:39:43,280
Speaker 1: in my projections and rankings that it sort of all matters.

844
00:39:43,560 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 1: It depends on the strength of the defense. But you know,

845
00:39:46,760 --> 00:39:50,240
Speaker 1: that's sort of what I'm factoring in in everyone's projection. Anyway.

846
00:39:50,560 --> 00:39:54,080
Speaker 3: Home road splits especially so very overlooked a lot of

847
00:39:54,080 --> 00:39:56,000
Speaker 3: the time, and some people kind of argue that.

848
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:57,320
Speaker 4: Hey, they're all noise.

849
00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:57,920
Speaker 1: You know.

850
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 3: The one blind spot, if you may, that we have

851
00:40:00,560 --> 00:40:02,960
Speaker 3: a little bit is the offensive line. No pun intended

852
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 3: in the sense that there aren't as many metrics or

853
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 3: you know, just the average viewer of an NFL game,

854
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:12,000
Speaker 3: it cannot really analyze the offensive line as well as

855
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:13,959
Speaker 3: they can look at a quarterback or running back. And

856
00:40:14,000 --> 00:40:17,200
Speaker 3: when an offensive line travels and these big guys go

857
00:40:17,280 --> 00:40:19,520
Speaker 3: on the road, they tend to kind of have a

858
00:40:19,600 --> 00:40:21,760
Speaker 3: rough week in terms of they're sitting on a plane,

859
00:40:21,800 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 3: they're they're kind of cooped up in hotels, they're they're

860
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:25,799
Speaker 3: out of their element a little bit, and it just

861
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,279
Speaker 3: it has like these like tiny little effects that tend

862
00:40:28,280 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 3: to show themselves on the field and if you just

863
00:40:30,040 --> 00:40:33,880
Speaker 3: look at large sample NFL numbers, teams don't run as

864
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:36,319
Speaker 3: well on the road, and they don't they don't pass

865
00:40:36,360 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 3: protectives officially on the road, so road games are tough

866
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:40,160
Speaker 3: for every NFL team.

867
00:40:40,320 --> 00:40:41,800
Speaker 4: It's it's a really tough matchup.

868
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 2: Final question here, I think it's been a great show

869
00:40:44,160 --> 00:40:46,879
Speaker 2: during the season. There are two ways really in which

870
00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 2: you add players to your team, either waiver wire or

871
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 2: through trades. So I'm interested in your approaches to both

872
00:40:55,560 --> 00:40:58,479
Speaker 2: of those, especially in a lot of home leagues. Both

873
00:40:58,480 --> 00:41:00,160
Speaker 2: of those are are pretty.

874
00:41:00,680 --> 00:41:03,840
Speaker 1: From my personal experience, people don't really like to trade

875
00:41:03,840 --> 00:41:07,040
Speaker 1: with me. It sounds fun. I wish I could do it,

876
00:41:07,080 --> 00:41:09,160
Speaker 1: but people just don't trade with me, so I don't

877
00:41:09,200 --> 00:41:12,719
Speaker 1: have as much experience. But trading is a fantastic way

878
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 1: to sell high and by low. A perfect example from

879
00:41:15,480 --> 00:41:17,880
Speaker 1: last season would have been John Ross. He was a

880
00:41:17,880 --> 00:41:20,959
Speaker 1: popular late round fier in some of my leagues given

881
00:41:21,000 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 1: his upside, but after his fast start he was actually

882
00:41:23,719 --> 00:41:26,719
Speaker 1: the number one wide receiver and fantasy after Week two.

883
00:41:27,239 --> 00:41:29,880
Speaker 1: At that time, it was unclear you know if or

884
00:41:29,960 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 1: when aj Green would make his season debut. Obviously, it

885
00:41:33,239 --> 00:41:36,120
Speaker 1: turned out he never returned, but it was also unclear

886
00:41:36,160 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 1: if Ross would be able to keep it up, so

887
00:41:38,360 --> 00:41:41,080
Speaker 1: you know, given his streakiness, it would have been wise

888
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:42,920
Speaker 1: to sell high at that point. You could have flipped

889
00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,760
Speaker 1: him for a guy like Courtland Sutton, who was drafted

890
00:41:45,840 --> 00:41:48,640
Speaker 1: much earlier, had a ton of potential, obviously maybe a

891
00:41:48,680 --> 00:41:51,520
Speaker 1: more stable role. He was only the wide receiver thirty

892
00:41:51,520 --> 00:41:53,759
Speaker 1: five after week two, so you could have had an

893
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 1: impatient owner flip them. Unfortunately, Ross ended up getting hurt.

894
00:41:57,520 --> 00:41:59,839
Speaker 1: Courtland Sutton ended up being the wide receerver fifteen from

895
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,120
Speaker 1: three to sixteen. Now, it's not always going to be

896
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,840
Speaker 1: that perfect, but that's a situation where you could have

897
00:42:05,880 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 1: flipped the guy at his peak and then get you know,

898
00:42:08,960 --> 00:42:11,200
Speaker 1: a guy like Setton when he was at his bottom

899
00:42:11,400 --> 00:42:13,120
Speaker 1: in terms of value at that point in the season.

900
00:42:13,320 --> 00:42:15,400
Speaker 1: It just goes to show it's a great way to

901
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:19,160
Speaker 1: siphon value from willing people to do that. So you

902
00:42:19,200 --> 00:42:22,279
Speaker 1: want to exploit your league mates, trap them if you will,

903
00:42:22,320 --> 00:42:24,880
Speaker 1: and you know, giving up massive value the rest of

904
00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:28,240
Speaker 1: the season just because of you know, some early season results,

905
00:42:28,480 --> 00:42:31,759
Speaker 1: and you know, the waiver wire is super critical for

906
00:42:31,920 --> 00:42:36,440
Speaker 1: championship teams. I think it really helps build a championship lineup,

907
00:42:36,719 --> 00:42:39,000
Speaker 1: you got to be alert. One of my favorite in

908
00:42:39,160 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 1: season strategies is to stash high upside backup running backs.

909
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:45,840
Speaker 1: So when you have a ton of backup running backs,

910
00:42:45,880 --> 00:42:48,440
Speaker 1: you know if the starter were ever to go down,

911
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:52,520
Speaker 1: you know they would individually become fantasy plays. The best

912
00:42:52,560 --> 00:42:55,840
Speaker 1: example of that was Latavious Murray. I had quite a

913
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:59,239
Speaker 1: bit of him last year, so when Alvin Kamara went down,

914
00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:01,560
Speaker 1: you know I plugged him in and he was actually

915
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 1: the number one running back overall for those two starts

916
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:07,520
Speaker 1: in weeks seven and eight. Another example would have been

917
00:43:07,560 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: Wayne Gallman that I had in a couple of deeper leagues,

918
00:43:10,520 --> 00:43:13,160
Speaker 1: So when Sakuon Barkley went down, you know I was

919
00:43:13,200 --> 00:43:14,840
Speaker 1: able to plug and Wyne Galman week four and he

920
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,720
Speaker 1: ended up putting up the sixth best running back score

921
00:43:17,760 --> 00:43:20,480
Speaker 1: that week. There's a ton of examples like that year

922
00:43:20,520 --> 00:43:23,840
Speaker 1: to year. This year, those similar backs all will be

923
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 1: loading up on our guys like Tony Pollard, like I mentioned,

924
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:30,120
Speaker 1: Chase Edmonds and Zack Moss just to name a few.

925
00:43:30,160 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 1: But you know, you could check out my upside running

926
00:43:33,040 --> 00:43:36,000
Speaker 1: back rankings piece to see the full list. It's also

927
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,600
Speaker 1: important to know when you get a guy at the

928
00:43:38,600 --> 00:43:41,560
Speaker 1: waiver wire, if you're getting more of a two week

929
00:43:41,640 --> 00:43:44,680
Speaker 1: rental from the guy. If it's a running back and

930
00:43:44,719 --> 00:43:46,840
Speaker 1: the starting running back is out for a couple of weeks,

931
00:43:47,000 --> 00:43:48,920
Speaker 1: you're only going to get that value for a couple

932
00:43:48,880 --> 00:43:51,719
Speaker 1: of weeks as opposed to a guy that's going to

933
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:54,239
Speaker 1: have rest of season value. Those are the guys that

934
00:43:54,320 --> 00:43:57,000
Speaker 1: I typically shoot for if I have a number one

935
00:43:57,040 --> 00:44:01,720
Speaker 1: waiver or have a ton of free agent auction bidding

936
00:44:01,920 --> 00:44:04,880
Speaker 1: dollars available, Those are the guys that really target. I

937
00:44:04,920 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 1: mentioned earlier how I don't actually draft a kicker or

938
00:44:07,920 --> 00:44:10,600
Speaker 1: defense of the draft. What I do during the season

939
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:13,879
Speaker 1: is just stream the top available kicker or defense using

940
00:44:13,880 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 1: my weekly projections. Each week, you know you're typically going

941
00:44:17,080 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 1: to get a top five kicker defense based on my projections.

942
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 1: So most years I'm actually able to generate a top

943
00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:26,800
Speaker 1: five kicker and defense just by streaming the top available

944
00:44:26,800 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 1: ones each week gives you a considerable edge.

945
00:44:29,200 --> 00:44:33,520
Speaker 2: In my opinion, I would strongly advocate for having a

946
00:44:33,680 --> 00:44:37,319
Speaker 2: free agent acquisition budget versus waivers. I think it makes

947
00:44:37,360 --> 00:44:39,759
Speaker 2: it much more equitable. I think it's also much more

948
00:44:39,880 --> 00:44:44,359
Speaker 2: entertaining to see the bidding process and to let that

949
00:44:44,440 --> 00:44:47,000
Speaker 2: unfold versus just knowing, oh, this guy has the number

950
00:44:47,080 --> 00:44:50,480
Speaker 2: one waiver priority, he's going to get the player that

951
00:44:50,560 --> 00:44:53,279
Speaker 2: everyone wants this week. Raybon, what are your thoughts on

952
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:54,720
Speaker 2: trades and waiver wires?

953
00:44:55,280 --> 00:44:57,600
Speaker 3: Look at the schedule, get a sense of it for

954
00:44:57,640 --> 00:45:00,560
Speaker 3: the entire league, So you can not only find that

955
00:45:01,080 --> 00:45:03,799
Speaker 3: you want to kind of sell high on, but you

956
00:45:03,880 --> 00:45:06,839
Speaker 3: also want to find players that may have been performing

957
00:45:06,880 --> 00:45:10,120
Speaker 3: poorly just because of some bad matchups. For example, if

958
00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:13,319
Speaker 3: a if a wide receiver has a tough slate of cornerbacks,

959
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:15,359
Speaker 3: then you know, all of a sudden, they're sitting here

960
00:45:15,400 --> 00:45:17,440
Speaker 3: and it's week four or five and they have no

961
00:45:17,680 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 3: big games. You know, that's when you want to really

962
00:45:20,320 --> 00:45:23,000
Speaker 3: look at the schedule. So there's an opportunity here to

963
00:45:23,000 --> 00:45:25,479
Speaker 3: buy low and just in general with the waiver wire

964
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:27,480
Speaker 3: as well as Sean mentioned, you know, just you want

965
00:45:27,520 --> 00:45:29,719
Speaker 3: those multi week guys, and you do that by looking

966
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:31,719
Speaker 3: at the schedule. So if you have a guy now

967
00:45:31,719 --> 00:45:34,520
Speaker 3: that may be coming up with a tough slate where

968
00:45:34,520 --> 00:45:36,520
Speaker 3: he has you know, tough matches, whatever it may be,

969
00:45:36,680 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 3: you could think of unloading him. So just kind of

970
00:45:38,320 --> 00:45:40,800
Speaker 3: being able to look a few weeks ahead. Sometimes even

971
00:45:41,200 --> 00:45:42,960
Speaker 3: what can help you is if you're doing the whole

972
00:45:43,040 --> 00:45:46,320
Speaker 3: kicker and streaming defenses thing, you can find a kicker

973
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:49,160
Speaker 3: a defense that it is actually pretty you know, going

974
00:45:49,200 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 3: to be the best for two weeks in a row,

975
00:45:51,320 --> 00:45:53,480
Speaker 3: or you can find when that it's going to be

976
00:45:53,520 --> 00:45:55,400
Speaker 3: the best next week and you can get ahead of

977
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:57,000
Speaker 3: stashing it if you have the space.

978
00:45:57,560 --> 00:45:59,880
Speaker 4: Just kind of knowing what's upcoming on the schedule is really.

979
00:45:59,719 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 2: Import Okay, that will do it for this episode of

980
00:46:02,760 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 2: the Action Network podcast. You can follow Sean, Chris and

981
00:46:05,600 --> 00:46:08,120
Speaker 2: me in the Action Network Gap at the Underscore odds

982
00:46:08,120 --> 00:46:10,799
Speaker 2: maker Chris Raymond and Matt f the Oracle. Use the

983
00:46:10,800 --> 00:46:12,960
Speaker 2: app to get real time odds and track your bets

984
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,840
Speaker 2: for free. Please rate, interview the show on Apple Podcasts

985
00:46:15,920 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts. See you again next episode.