1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:08,680 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news joining us. 2 00:00:08,600 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 2: In the last forty eight hours the Great Bullmarket Pinata Edward, 3 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:16,279 Speaker 2: you heard Denny joines of your Denny research. Have the 4 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,919 Speaker 2: last forty eight hours been? Would I believe you just 5 00:00:20,040 --> 00:00:24,079 Speaker 2: shifted probabilities absolutely of your roaring thesis? 6 00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:24,320 Speaker 3: Well? 7 00:00:24,520 --> 00:00:24,959 Speaker 2: It been. 8 00:00:25,040 --> 00:00:27,080 Speaker 3: I got to be a bit of a realist given 9 00:00:27,120 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 3: what is going on. Yeah, I'm still sticking with sixty 10 00:00:31,320 --> 00:00:35,519 Speaker 3: percent for what I call the Roaring twenty twenties. However, 11 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 3: I had given twenty percent to a melt up because 12 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 3: things kind of had that potential. Still, it's not a 13 00:00:42,920 --> 00:00:46,280 Speaker 3: high probability, and twenty percent to melt down or a 14 00:00:46,400 --> 00:00:50,040 Speaker 3: ssshon kind of a bucket for everything that could go wrong. Well, 15 00:00:50,680 --> 00:00:52,720 Speaker 3: now I'm just five percent for a melt up that's 16 00:00:52,800 --> 00:00:57,400 Speaker 3: very unlikely, and thirty five percent for things going wrong, 17 00:00:57,440 --> 00:00:58,080 Speaker 3: which they are. 18 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:02,160 Speaker 2: Amazon does thirty seven to forty two billion dollar bond offering. 19 00:01:02,240 --> 00:01:04,680 Speaker 2: Damien tells me it's going to be six phone calls. 20 00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:11,520 Speaker 2: Heath Terry brilliant Overt City Group publishes and reaffirms AI 21 00:01:11,840 --> 00:01:16,280 Speaker 2: viability in revenue, in profit, in getting things done. With 22 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:19,720 Speaker 2: all that, I agree with it. Kep x synthesize in 23 00:01:20,520 --> 00:01:23,959 Speaker 2: as you mentioned, spreads have an a move, the bond 24 00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:28,920 Speaker 2: market screaming stability. These other news items screen fold them 25 00:01:28,920 --> 00:01:31,360 Speaker 2: into your roaring twenties theme. 26 00:01:31,840 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 3: Well, I mean, we've we've done pretty well with a 27 00:01:35,120 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 3: thesis so far. We've got a few more years here 28 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:41,920 Speaker 3: left in the decade. I think this will pass. 29 00:01:42,319 --> 00:01:46,600 Speaker 2: You're short selling yourself, folks. It's the Denny and Kampoor 30 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 2: low of October a few years ago and in Ralph 31 00:01:50,600 --> 00:01:54,520 Speaker 2: and Comport, thank you nailed it. Continue, thank you very much. 32 00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 3: So look, I think in the short term we clearly 33 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:02,480 Speaker 3: have an issue with the strait of our moves. It's 34 00:02:02,480 --> 00:02:07,000 Speaker 3: hard to get optimistic here unless we see some tankers 35 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:10,119 Speaker 3: actually going through there without any incident. I know the 36 00:02:10,160 --> 00:02:13,880 Speaker 3: President sounds like he wants to declare victory here pretty shortly, 37 00:02:13,960 --> 00:02:18,240 Speaker 3: but you know, I think Iran lost the war. They 38 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 3: just don't really know it and they're not acting like it. 39 00:02:21,160 --> 00:02:25,640 Speaker 3: The problem with this country is that it's a terrorist 40 00:02:25,680 --> 00:02:31,560 Speaker 3: state with a terrorist organization that basically spreads terrorism around 41 00:02:31,600 --> 00:02:35,120 Speaker 3: the world, and they're professional terrorists, and so it's very 42 00:02:35,160 --> 00:02:38,399 Speaker 3: hard to kind of beat them just by blessing them 43 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:39,680 Speaker 3: with the bombs. 44 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 1: And back in December you correctly, I'm going to give 45 00:02:41,960 --> 00:02:44,640 Speaker 1: it at a softball here. He correctly called for an 46 00:02:44,720 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 1: underway position in the Max seven and the baskets now down 47 00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:49,919 Speaker 1: six point three percent year to date. I'm curious, do 48 00:02:49,960 --> 00:02:53,200 Speaker 1: you see further weakness in US tech stocs right here 49 00:02:53,280 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 1: right now? Or is this a buying opportunity. 50 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:59,000 Speaker 3: Well, I think it's becoming very bifurcated. The companies that 51 00:02:59,440 --> 00:03:03,600 Speaker 3: still have moats, the companies that you know are basically 52 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:09,359 Speaker 3: competing in still fairly stable marketplaces, I think are fine. 53 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,880 Speaker 3: The problem for the magnificence of it is that they 54 00:03:13,000 --> 00:03:15,240 Speaker 3: used to be kind of like the Game of Thrones. 55 00:03:15,280 --> 00:03:18,799 Speaker 3: You know, it's like seven independent kingdoms that had motes 56 00:03:18,840 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 3: and didn't really bother each other. But ever since AI, 57 00:03:22,000 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 3: they're competing like mad and it's you know, it's a 58 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:26,720 Speaker 3: AI arms race. 59 00:03:27,040 --> 00:03:29,519 Speaker 2: Already continue with that. Your Deney doctor, your Denny of 60 00:03:29,520 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 2: your Denny research, can't say enough about his research. It's 61 00:03:33,120 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 2: exceptionally value your Denny report that you get from him, 62 00:03:38,160 --> 00:03:40,720 Speaker 2: literally on a daily basis. Damian Sas are in time 63 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 2: king with your Denny. We'll move forward here in a 64 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:47,520 Speaker 2: bit too further discussion of what we saw in the 65 00:03:47,560 --> 00:03:51,360 Speaker 2: Secretary of Defense's press conference here a bit ago, but 66 00:03:51,440 --> 00:03:55,320 Speaker 2: it is about the markets. Here's the summary for those 67 00:03:55,360 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 2: of you across this nation waking up the VICS was 68 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:03,200 Speaker 2: thirty five. That is painful. We've come in dramatically to 69 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:06,680 Speaker 2: a twenty four point five seven with redd and green 70 00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:09,560 Speaker 2: on the screen. But it decided lead better take today 71 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:12,720 Speaker 2: than what we witnessed in the last forty eight hours. 72 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:16,800 Speaker 2: With the market opening, Alexis Christophers. 73 00:04:16,240 --> 00:04:18,800 Speaker 4: All right, thanks very much, Tom, and investors continuing to 74 00:04:18,839 --> 00:04:21,400 Speaker 4: try to assess how long this war with Iran will 75 00:04:21,400 --> 00:04:24,440 Speaker 4: go on and what its global impact will be, especially 76 00:04:24,680 --> 00:04:27,359 Speaker 4: on the oil market. So we have a mixed start 77 00:04:27,400 --> 00:04:30,000 Speaker 4: here to the morning. The S and P five hundred 78 00:04:30,080 --> 00:04:32,520 Speaker 4: down three points at sixty seven to ninety three, Dow 79 00:04:32,640 --> 00:04:35,400 Speaker 4: Jones Industrial Average down about twenty five points, but the 80 00:04:35,480 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 4: Nasdaq and the Green right now by about forty two points. 81 00:04:38,400 --> 00:04:41,800 Speaker 4: So Russell two thousand is down just fractionally. We've got 82 00:04:41,800 --> 00:04:44,400 Speaker 4: Brent crude at ninety one forty four, the barrel down 83 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,120 Speaker 4: seven and a half percent, WTI crewed down about to 84 00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:50,719 Speaker 4: seven percent now to eighty eighth four the barrel and 85 00:04:50,720 --> 00:04:53,679 Speaker 4: the Bloomberg dollars Spot Index at eleven ninety seven eighty 86 00:04:53,720 --> 00:04:55,840 Speaker 4: four spot Gold by the way bouncing back up one 87 00:04:55,839 --> 00:04:58,560 Speaker 4: and a half percent at fifty two to fifteen the ounce, 88 00:04:58,720 --> 00:05:01,440 Speaker 4: and Amazon returning to the bond market, selling the debt 89 00:05:01,480 --> 00:05:03,839 Speaker 4: and as many as eleven tranches ranging from two to 90 00:05:03,920 --> 00:05:06,440 Speaker 4: fifty years. It's the latest in a series of jumbo 91 00:05:06,480 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 4: bond sales by hyperscalers as they gear up to invest 92 00:05:09,520 --> 00:05:12,880 Speaker 4: in what else but AI. That's your Bloomberg opening bell report, 93 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:13,919 Speaker 4: Tom and Damien. 94 00:05:13,680 --> 00:05:15,720 Speaker 2: Alexis, thank you so much again, ready green in the 95 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:17,839 Speaker 2: screen Nasdaq with a little bit of the bid twenty 96 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,520 Speaker 2: four point twenty five in the thanks Ed. You're Denny 97 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 2: with us always associated with Professor Tobin at Yale, but 98 00:05:24,560 --> 00:05:28,599 Speaker 2: before that high above Cayuga's Waters at Cornell University as 99 00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:33,839 Speaker 2: our prosad is one of the great optimists of international economics. 100 00:05:34,080 --> 00:05:36,880 Speaker 2: His new book out of Cornell is The Doom Loop 101 00:05:37,640 --> 00:05:40,159 Speaker 2: on the Economic Order. He even gets Game of Thrones 102 00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:44,240 Speaker 2: into the first chapters. Scott Serse, doing an economics you 103 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 2: more than anyone I know ed, pushes against the concept 104 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:51,479 Speaker 2: of a doom loop. What do you say to the 105 00:05:51,600 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 2: people that feel the gloom, feel the doom. 106 00:05:56,480 --> 00:06:00,640 Speaker 3: Well, you know, there are a fair amount of bears 107 00:06:00,680 --> 00:06:02,279 Speaker 3: out there, and a lot of people listen to the 108 00:06:02,320 --> 00:06:07,160 Speaker 3: perma bears, and that perma bears very often sound very logical. 109 00:06:07,680 --> 00:06:12,000 Speaker 3: The problem is they don't provide a balance. And perma 110 00:06:12,040 --> 00:06:13,600 Speaker 3: bears will get you out at the top of the 111 00:06:13,640 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 3: stock market, they'll get you out in the middle, they'll 112 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:18,040 Speaker 3: get you at the bottom at the bottom. You'll never 113 00:06:18,080 --> 00:06:22,080 Speaker 3: be in the stock market if you'd have a pessimistic attitude. Also, 114 00:06:22,200 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 3: politics sometimes gets in the way of clear and clear 115 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 3: headed investing. The market tends to go up as long 116 00:06:29,160 --> 00:06:31,160 Speaker 3: as earnings are going up, as long as the economy 117 00:06:31,240 --> 00:06:34,599 Speaker 3: is doing well, and that's been the case for a 118 00:06:34,640 --> 00:06:39,360 Speaker 3: long long time. So I have this view that corrections 119 00:06:39,360 --> 00:06:43,159 Speaker 3: and bear markets are buying opportunities rather than reasons to panic. 120 00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: Well, and you talk about the economy doing well in 121 00:06:45,920 --> 00:06:48,800 Speaker 1: all seriousness, does economic deity even matter at this point? 122 00:06:48,800 --> 00:06:50,479 Speaker 1: I mean, look at last week's payrolls. I mean the 123 00:06:50,480 --> 00:06:52,919 Speaker 1: markets look straight through that for like three seconds, and 124 00:06:52,960 --> 00:06:55,279 Speaker 1: then tomorrow we're going to get a CPI print that, 125 00:06:55,480 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 1: by definition, after the last week's events, is already stale. 126 00:06:58,520 --> 00:07:00,320 Speaker 1: So you know, talk to us little bit about the 127 00:07:00,400 --> 00:07:02,960 Speaker 1: economic touch points that you're going to be most focused 128 00:07:02,960 --> 00:07:03,279 Speaker 1: on here. 129 00:07:03,360 --> 00:07:06,479 Speaker 3: Well, look, I think that the economy still matters, because 130 00:07:06,520 --> 00:07:10,200 Speaker 3: earning still matters. One of the I used to be 131 00:07:10,280 --> 00:07:13,200 Speaker 3: just an economist and also a strategist, and being a 132 00:07:13,240 --> 00:07:15,840 Speaker 3: strategist is a lot easier. All you got to do 133 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,640 Speaker 3: is forecast pe time Z, and that's very easy to do. 134 00:07:19,680 --> 00:07:22,760 Speaker 3: Getting it right, of course, is the challenge, but it's 135 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 3: still it's still those two variables, and the earnings outlook 136 00:07:26,640 --> 00:07:30,040 Speaker 3: I think remains quite strong because I think the economy 137 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:33,080 Speaker 3: will remain resilient. I mean, in twenty twenty two we 138 00:07:33,120 --> 00:07:35,960 Speaker 3: had an oil price shock and the economy made through 139 00:07:36,000 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 3: it just fine. I think the data that the stock 140 00:07:40,600 --> 00:07:43,360 Speaker 3: market is looking at is not just the employment numbers, 141 00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:46,200 Speaker 3: but they're looking at the productivity numbers. And that's really 142 00:07:46,200 --> 00:07:49,080 Speaker 3: the bullish story, is that the productivity is making a 143 00:07:49,160 --> 00:07:49,840 Speaker 3: huge comeback. 144 00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,360 Speaker 1: Well, and we began our conversation Tom mentioning that you 145 00:07:52,440 --> 00:07:55,200 Speaker 1: had upped your probability from market meltdown from twenty to 146 00:07:55,240 --> 00:07:57,680 Speaker 1: thirty five percent for the balance of this year. You know, 147 00:07:57,840 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 1: my question is this, you know, when I think meltdown, 148 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:02,239 Speaker 1: I think of something on the order of a systemic 149 00:08:02,280 --> 00:08:04,520 Speaker 1: liquidity shock. And this is a different sort of shock 150 00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,360 Speaker 1: than we witnessed, you know, in two thousand and another. 151 00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:10,200 Speaker 1: You know, kind of pre what funding and financing metrics 152 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:11,960 Speaker 1: are you most focused on here? Like, what kind of 153 00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:14,000 Speaker 1: a liquidity shock do you think can happen? 154 00:08:14,520 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 3: Well, clearly, when you look at history, you find that 155 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:21,320 Speaker 3: more often than that it's a shock in the credit 156 00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:24,440 Speaker 3: system that causes problems for the stock market and get 157 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:28,360 Speaker 3: a financial crisis because of FED tight and something blows 158 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 3: up and that becomes a credit crunch. It's credit crunch 159 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,199 Speaker 3: is the cause of recessions this time around. I think 160 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:37,680 Speaker 3: we have to recognize remember that the Fed's are awfully 161 00:08:37,679 --> 00:08:39,840 Speaker 3: good at playing whack a mole in the credit markets. 162 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,079 Speaker 3: You know, as soon as something blows up, they move 163 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 3: in pretty quickly. March twenty twenty three, we had a 164 00:08:45,679 --> 00:08:48,440 Speaker 3: banking crisis. There's only three banks that it was solved 165 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:49,080 Speaker 3: over the weekend. 166 00:08:49,360 --> 00:08:52,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I get fifteen ways to go here, But let 167 00:08:52,200 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 2: me just go to the experience I mentioned earlier, this 168 00:08:55,000 --> 00:08:59,520 Speaker 2: modest drawdown we had in nineteen eighty seven. In my memory, 169 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:01,680 Speaker 2: I don't have in front of me, folks is what 170 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:05,080 Speaker 2: a rebound from October twenty seventh to the end of 171 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:08,520 Speaker 2: the year December of nineteen eighty seven. I remember the 172 00:09:08,640 --> 00:09:11,920 Speaker 2: sweat in August of nineteen ninety eight, and off we 173 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,120 Speaker 2: went to the race to the range of nine. What's 174 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:20,920 Speaker 2: different now in tech versus the collapse of March of 175 00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:23,600 Speaker 2: two thousand and one earnings. 176 00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:27,959 Speaker 3: We had a lot of dot coms back then that 177 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 3: weren't making any money. We had a lot of telecom 178 00:09:32,160 --> 00:09:35,240 Speaker 3: companies that were solar financing, so they're kind of creating 179 00:09:35,280 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 3: their own magic. Until these companies, these mag seven started 180 00:09:41,120 --> 00:09:45,640 Speaker 3: to kind of finance each other, we didn't really have 181 00:09:45,720 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 3: that issue. But they're huge cast generators. I think their 182 00:09:50,920 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 3: expenditures are going to prove to be very profitable, so 183 00:09:54,880 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 3: I'm not particularly worried about the earning side of the 184 00:09:57,800 --> 00:09:58,400 Speaker 3: text story. 185 00:09:58,640 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 2: It's part of the show this morning commercial Free the 186 00:10:00,840 --> 00:10:05,600 Speaker 2: conversation too Important at your Donna das FENDERI coming on 187 00:10:05,720 --> 00:10:08,880 Speaker 2: here in a moment Damian Sasar and Tom Kane with 188 00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:12,959 Speaker 2: Alexis Christopherus and Michael Barr across this nation on YouTube. 189 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 2: What a couple of days on YouTube. Thank you so 190 00:10:15,760 --> 00:10:19,880 Speaker 2: much for this new digital distribution I can't say enough 191 00:10:19,920 --> 00:10:23,360 Speaker 2: about it. Subscribe at Bloomberg Podcasts for all that we 192 00:10:23,480 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 2: do here in the New York Morning, Damien Sasaur with 193 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:29,040 Speaker 2: Ed your Denny so Ed. 194 00:10:29,080 --> 00:10:31,880 Speaker 1: We talk about the Roaring twenties theme. We talk about, 195 00:10:31,960 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 1: you know, the potential for market mail down and market 196 00:10:34,240 --> 00:10:37,719 Speaker 1: melt up. Talk to me about your stagflationary nineteen seventies 197 00:10:37,840 --> 00:10:41,320 Speaker 1: reduce theme, redo, reducts, redux, reducs. 198 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:45,959 Speaker 2: If you're an em it's reduced. We call that redus. 199 00:10:46,480 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 1: I mean, I mean the stagflationary. You know, you know 200 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:50,920 Speaker 1: that that word's coming back. So talk to us a 201 00:10:50,960 --> 00:10:51,960 Speaker 1: little bit about what you're seeing there. 202 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:53,959 Speaker 3: Yeah, there is a certain amount of deja voo all 203 00:10:53,960 --> 00:10:57,720 Speaker 3: over again. You know, every time we've had oil shocks 204 00:10:57,720 --> 00:11:01,880 Speaker 3: in the past, we've typically gotten a recessions and bear markets. 205 00:11:02,200 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 3: The one near term exception was what happened in twenty 206 00:11:06,800 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 3: twenty two. We got a bear market, but we didn't 207 00:11:09,160 --> 00:11:12,080 Speaker 3: get a recession. I don't think we're going to get 208 00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:16,319 Speaker 3: a recession this time. The recessionary expectations have gone up, 209 00:11:17,200 --> 00:11:21,600 Speaker 3: but the US is much less energy intensive and oh, 210 00:11:21,640 --> 00:11:24,320 Speaker 3: by the way, we're an exporter, yeah, of oil and gas, 211 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 3: which is a huge difference for what happened in the 212 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,560 Speaker 3: nineteen seventies. On the other hands, shutting the Strait of 213 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:37,280 Speaker 3: Hermus is a radically different historical development just hasn't happened before, 214 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:44,040 Speaker 3: and so my short term caution bearishness is totally predicated 215 00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 3: in this geopolitical development. I want to see some tankers 216 00:11:47,200 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 3: get through the strait without getting shot at. 217 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:49,440 Speaker 2: Well. 218 00:11:49,480 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: I mean you just mentioned that, and that's where I 219 00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:52,800 Speaker 1: was going to go. I mean, golf traffic is basically 220 00:11:52,880 --> 00:11:55,040 Speaker 1: all for not right. I mean, there's nothing going through. 221 00:11:55,080 --> 00:11:57,000 Speaker 1: And you know, we just saw last week US Treasury 222 00:11:57,040 --> 00:11:59,640 Speaker 1: Secretary and a Scott Best and basically slamming you know, 223 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,839 Speaker 1: GP Morgan for putting out research about maritime insurance and 224 00:12:02,880 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 1: things of that nature. You know, how focused are you 225 00:12:04,920 --> 00:12:07,160 Speaker 1: on some of those alternative data sets, you know, kind 226 00:12:07,160 --> 00:12:09,199 Speaker 1: of trying to gauge out, you know, whether or not shipping. 227 00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:11,720 Speaker 1: You know, companies even want to you know, pass through 228 00:12:11,800 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: the street of removes now and back. 229 00:12:14,679 --> 00:12:16,480 Speaker 3: I mean, who knows, it's funny you asked that. One 230 00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:19,439 Speaker 3: of the reasons I'm I'm very positive on AI is 231 00:12:19,480 --> 00:12:21,559 Speaker 3: because we're using it all the time and we've become 232 00:12:21,640 --> 00:12:25,600 Speaker 3: real fans of Claude, and so Claude is uh is 233 00:12:25,640 --> 00:12:28,720 Speaker 3: in our staff now and that we're we're toying around. 234 00:12:28,760 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 3: We're just asking Claude to follow the shipping lanes in 235 00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:37,200 Speaker 3: the Strait and there there's actually data. So but we 236 00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 3: only started doing it yesterday. So the other thing is 237 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,920 Speaker 3: there's there. I also want to see the data on drones. 238 00:12:46,120 --> 00:12:49,600 Speaker 3: I mean, it's it's it's fine for the president, you know, 239 00:12:49,679 --> 00:12:54,040 Speaker 3: to declare that we're almost there, almost mission accomplished, but uh, 240 00:12:54,200 --> 00:12:56,320 Speaker 3: that's not that's not going to be the case unless 241 00:12:56,920 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 3: the drones stopped flying into uh the neighbor, into the Straits, 242 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 3: into you know, aiming at our ships. 243 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,959 Speaker 2: In Andy March thirty one, I believe it's another end 244 00:13:06,960 --> 00:13:09,320 Speaker 2: of the quarter if we can get there, and then 245 00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,000 Speaker 2: into April and JP Morgan reporting and off we go 246 00:13:12,040 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 2: to the Q one earning season. What does end your 247 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:19,120 Speaker 2: Denny see with a broader sense of use of cash? 248 00:13:19,160 --> 00:13:23,120 Speaker 3: Well, you know, right now, the earning story has been 249 00:13:23,160 --> 00:13:27,680 Speaker 3: phenomenally strong, and that's really what's been driving the market. 250 00:13:27,679 --> 00:13:31,439 Speaker 3: The evaluation multiple you know, got up to about twenty two. 251 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:36,000 Speaker 3: It's come down because of this pullback so far, which 252 00:13:36,040 --> 00:13:38,640 Speaker 3: is it's not a correction yet, but I think it 253 00:13:38,640 --> 00:13:39,200 Speaker 3: has that. 254 00:13:39,080 --> 00:13:42,719 Speaker 2: Why I got this is too important? Since when are 255 00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:47,280 Speaker 2: we hysterical about your Denny pullback that, as you state, 256 00:13:47,520 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 2: is not a correction as we learned it in school. 257 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:54,240 Speaker 3: Well, you know, a pullback is a drop that isn't 258 00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:56,760 Speaker 3: a correction. A correction is ten to twenty percent decline. 259 00:13:56,760 --> 00:13:59,440 Speaker 3: A bear market is more than twenty percent. I happen 260 00:13:59,520 --> 00:14:02,920 Speaker 3: to think that there is a thirty five percent the 261 00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:06,440 Speaker 3: probability of things going badly, and that would lead to 262 00:14:06,480 --> 00:14:11,200 Speaker 3: a correction of ten to fifteen percent. I'm actually amazed 263 00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 3: by the resilience of the of the not just the economy, 264 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,800 Speaker 3: but the stock market. The stock market wants to believe 265 00:14:18,360 --> 00:14:21,680 Speaker 3: that all will be well, very very shortly. We saw 266 00:14:21,720 --> 00:14:24,800 Speaker 3: this amazing reversal also in the price of oil, as 267 00:14:24,800 --> 00:14:27,800 Speaker 3: though you know, what, were we thinking there's plenty of 268 00:14:27,800 --> 00:14:29,840 Speaker 3: oil out there. Well, there's plenty of oil out there. 269 00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 3: We just got to get get to. 270 00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 2: It quick, one quick one. 271 00:14:33,680 --> 00:14:35,480 Speaker 1: Well, I mean ed what you sound It sounds like 272 00:14:35,480 --> 00:14:38,120 Speaker 1: you're talking about just cleaner positions, right, And I mean, 273 00:14:38,120 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 1: if this is really what this amounts to, where you 274 00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,640 Speaker 1: basically are giving a lot of you know, risky investors 275 00:14:42,640 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 1: the opportunity to kind of you know, pair back to 276 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:47,800 Speaker 1: positions and clean them, so to speak. Does that mean 277 00:14:47,840 --> 00:14:50,480 Speaker 1: we might look for another leg higher into the you know, 278 00:14:50,560 --> 00:14:52,520 Speaker 1: second half of this year. And can we really even 279 00:14:52,560 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 1: see that? 280 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,200 Speaker 3: Well, I haven't given up on seventy seven hundred by 281 00:14:55,240 --> 00:14:57,880 Speaker 3: the end of the year. I can so yeah, I'm 282 00:14:58,320 --> 00:15:01,600 Speaker 3: I'm arguing that it's not necessarily going to be a 283 00:15:01,640 --> 00:15:04,120 Speaker 3: few more days of the war, but it could be 284 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:07,280 Speaker 3: a few more weeks, and that again, I have this 285 00:15:08,120 --> 00:15:12,240 Speaker 3: tendency to look at soopica's buying opportunities rather than reasons 286 00:15:12,240 --> 00:15:12,680 Speaker 3: to panic. 287 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:14,040 Speaker 2: Thank you for coming in. 288 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:14,920 Speaker 3: My pleasure always. 289 00:15:15,000 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 2: You can't say enough about it, folks. I enthusiastically support 290 00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:22,280 Speaker 2: the work of doctor or Denny. We protect the copyright 291 00:15:22,320 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 2: of all of our guests. Please don't call us to 292 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:29,160 Speaker 2: get his research. Go to your Denny Research for his 293 00:15:29,280 --> 00:15:32,720 Speaker 2: fabulous daily synthesis of economics.