WEBVTT - Understanding the Factors Behind U.S. Gun Violence

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carrol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing

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<v Speaker 1>Search Bloomberg Global News to all Highland Park, Virginia Tech,

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<v Speaker 1>Sandy Hook Elementary and Elementary School in Valdi, Texas. I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>we could go on and on. The rate of gun

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<v Speaker 1>deaths has increased thirty three from or excuse me, in

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<v Speaker 1>the United States that we're talking about nine years. This

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<v Speaker 1>is according to every stat every Town for Gun Safety.

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<v Speaker 1>With more on gun violence awareness and prevention, we bring

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<v Speaker 1>in Cassandra Kofossi. She's Associate professor in the Department of

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<v Speaker 1>Health Policy and Management, Deputy director of the Center for

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<v Speaker 1>Gun vi Ulent Solutions at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School

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<v Speaker 1>of Public Health, of course, supported by Michael R. Bloomberg

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<v Speaker 1>founder and Bloomberg LP and Bloomberg Philanthropies. Mike also a

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<v Speaker 1>co founded supporter of every Town for Gun Safety. And

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<v Speaker 1>Cassandra joining us on the phone in Annapolis, Maryland. Cassandra,

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<v Speaker 1>good to have you with us. How are you? I'm good?

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<v Speaker 1>Thanks thanks for having me. When Carol was going through

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<v Speaker 1>the names that we associate with acts of terror and

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<v Speaker 1>gun violence in this country, it got me thinking that

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<v Speaker 1>after there is an incident like Highland Park, like Vivaldi,

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<v Speaker 1>we talk about gun safety for you know, a few days,

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<v Speaker 1>but then it seems to shift to the back burner.

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<v Speaker 1>How do we keep the conversation going without you know,

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<v Speaker 1>these big profile events being in the news. Yeah, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a really excellent question, and I think the first thing

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<v Speaker 1>to keep in mind we have been seeing these really

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<v Speaker 1>horrendous high profile shootings, UM, but we also have exceptionally

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<v Speaker 1>high rates of every day gun violent suicide, an intimate

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<v Speaker 1>partner violence. We need level violence, and we need to

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<v Speaker 1>be thinking about those factors, um, those types of violence.

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<v Speaker 1>In addition to these mass shootings and so the things

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<v Speaker 1>that we've really been seeing change in the last few years,

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<v Speaker 1>largely driven by the youth voices. Youth advocates have been

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<v Speaker 1>more attention on drawing parallels, so not just focusing on

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<v Speaker 1>a mass shooting as an isolated event, but understanding how

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<v Speaker 1>there are features or characteristics of a mass shooting that

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<v Speaker 1>are similar to other kinds of violence and looking there

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<v Speaker 1>for solutions. I want to talk a little bit about

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<v Speaker 1>access to firearms, because this is something that comes up

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<v Speaker 1>each and every day with instances like this State's very

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<v Speaker 1>in terms of gun restrictions and what people are able

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<v Speaker 1>to buy. How do you prevent a gun from uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, a different state going to a state like Illinois,

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<v Speaker 1>for example. It's such a challenging feature of our country.

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<v Speaker 1>Our borders are fourth for a reason, right, people and

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<v Speaker 1>products move across them. But what that means is states

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<v Speaker 1>with strong gunlass like California, Illinois, Maryland, New York, they're

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<v Speaker 1>at the mercy of U states with weaker gun law.

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<v Speaker 1>And here is an opportunity to take our regional approach

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<v Speaker 1>to look at where sounds that are recovered in crime

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<v Speaker 1>or used to harm others, look at where they're coming from,

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<v Speaker 1>and sharing that data across jurisdictions across partners to understand

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<v Speaker 1>are their targets of opportunity in terms of bad apple

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<v Speaker 1>gun dealers are their individuals who are buying a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of guns and bringing them across state lines. I think

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<v Speaker 1>one of the most important factors to keep in mind

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<v Speaker 1>when we're thinking about addressing gun violence. No one thing

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<v Speaker 1>is going to help us address this problem. We need

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<v Speaker 1>to be thinking about it from a multifaceted approach and

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<v Speaker 1>thinking about policies and thinking about gun dealers and access

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<v Speaker 1>and supply, but also we need to be thinking about

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<v Speaker 1>why people want access to firearms, what is driving this demand,

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<v Speaker 1>addressing some of the fear trauma, all of these things

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<v Speaker 1>that are associated not just with COVID, but longstanding UH

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<v Speaker 1>systematic racism and other issues that we've had in this country. Cassandrew,

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<v Speaker 1>where does social media fit into all of this? That's

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<v Speaker 1>such a great question. Um. Social media can be a

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<v Speaker 1>tool to help spread messages public safety, public health messages,

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<v Speaker 1>for example, but it can also be used as a

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<v Speaker 1>tool to stoke sphere or to spread misinformation. One of

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<v Speaker 1>the things that we try very hard to do it

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<v Speaker 1>hence our name for center from Gundivalent Solutions is to

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<v Speaker 1>really lift up the things that we know work to

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<v Speaker 1>try to counteract the feeling of despair or inevitability anytime

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<v Speaker 1>high profile mass shooting occurs, so we try to counter

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<v Speaker 1>some of those pieces that it can be, unfortunately a

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<v Speaker 1>tool to help spread misinformation and here that can drive

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<v Speaker 1>gun purchasing. Do you think we get to a point

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<v Speaker 1>just in the last minute that we have with you, Cassandra,

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<v Speaker 1>where we start to see public funding going to research

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<v Speaker 1>against gun research when it comes to gun violence. We

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<v Speaker 1>all know about the dicy Amendment and what that did.

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<v Speaker 1>We have seen over the last several years more federal

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<v Speaker 1>funding coming from the Centers for Disease Control Prevention as

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<v Speaker 1>well as an h dedicated to specifically funding gun violence prevention.

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<v Speaker 1>And I think that's really going to help us to

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<v Speaker 1>do a couple of things, to grow the field so

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<v Speaker 1>that we have more researchers trained to understand and study

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<v Speaker 1>this problem, and it's also going to help us answer

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<v Speaker 1>some basic questions. We are way behind where we should

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<v Speaker 1>be in our understanding of gun violence prevention and policy

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<v Speaker 1>because of the restrictions on federal funding. But as that's

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<v Speaker 1>loosening up, as we have more funding coming into the field.

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<v Speaker 1>We're going to see that change, all right. We're gonna

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<v Speaker 1>leave it on that now. Hey, Cassandra, thank you so

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<v Speaker 1>much for your time today. Cassandra Krafoss, She's Deputy director

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<v Speaker 1>of the Center for Gun Violent Solutions at the Johns

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<v Speaker 1>Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. As we mentioned earlier,

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<v Speaker 1>supported by Michael R. Bloomberg, founder, BLOOMBERGIL and Bloomberg Philanthropies.

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<v Speaker 1>Mike also a co founder and supporter of every Town

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<v Speaker 1>for Gun Safety. You're listening to Bloomberg Business Week with

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<v Speaker 1>Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 1>Let's get to the domestic cover story Bloomberg Business Week.

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<v Speaker 1>This issue, new issue out on newstands of Bloomberg and

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg dot Com Slash business Week. All about the AMC

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<v Speaker 1>Entertainment CEO Adam Arrant him and I've talked with him,

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<v Speaker 1>who has cultivated an army of followers, who sent the

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<v Speaker 1>stock storing in a retail trading frenzy last year. Who

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<v Speaker 1>could forget that? Yeah, the story by Felix Gillette and

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<v Speaker 1>Eliza Ronald's hand and Felix Gilette his media entertainment and

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<v Speaker 1>telecom editor for Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us this

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<v Speaker 1>afternoon on the phone from New Jersey. Also with us

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<v Speaker 1>is Joel Weber, the editor of Bloomberg Business Week. He

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<v Speaker 1>joins us this afternoon on the access line from Massachusetts.

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<v Speaker 1>So people have been following out of air and Jold.

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<v Speaker 1>They perhaps know him from his time at Veil Resorts

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<v Speaker 1>or with the cruise lines at the airline industry early

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<v Speaker 1>in his career. Now he's been at AMC for a

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<v Speaker 1>few years. What is he up to? Oh, that is

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<v Speaker 1>a great question. Um. Well, in the time that um,

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<v Speaker 1>we were sort of initially talking about this idea for

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<v Speaker 1>the story. Uh, you know, we're in the middle of

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<v Speaker 1>the pandemic. People were like, hey, movie, movie theaters, that's

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<v Speaker 1>not gonna work out. And then lo and behold, AMC

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<v Speaker 1>became this meme stock and you know, I don't think

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<v Speaker 1>many people recognized that um Adam Aaron was the CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of the company, and it sort of was like, you

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<v Speaker 1>couldn't have imagined a more theatrical CEO to be in

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<v Speaker 1>charge of a publicly traded company happened to be the

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<v Speaker 1>world's biggest theater chain, and he kind of met the

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<v Speaker 1>moment in this amazing way where AMC became a meme

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<v Speaker 1>stock and he was very flamboyant, very amazing on social media,

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<v Speaker 1>and it really kind of made him endearing to all

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<v Speaker 1>these UM retail traders UM, and that set up this little,

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<v Speaker 1>nice little tension between the retail traders and the institutional ones,

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<v Speaker 1>which were all kind of familiar with now. But in

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<v Speaker 1>the middle of all that, we realized that who who

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<v Speaker 1>is this guy? We did we had no idea, We

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<v Speaker 1>had no idea what his backstory is. And he ends

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<v Speaker 1>this amazing backstory because he came up through like loyalty programs.

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<v Speaker 1>So so Felix um Analyza did this amazing job reporting

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<v Speaker 1>this story. I feel like it's like just a perfect

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<v Speaker 1>Business Week cover story. UM Felix, you know you guys,

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<v Speaker 1>you guys dug into his back story so much like,

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<v Speaker 1>how did he Why was he the right person for

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<v Speaker 1>for this company at this moment? Well, I think to

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<v Speaker 1>an incredible degree, his entire career was really building up

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<v Speaker 1>to this. UM. I mean the whole thing hinges on.

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<v Speaker 1>I mean, meme stocks to come and go, so you

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<v Speaker 1>have to like keep these four million retail investors somehow

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<v Speaker 1>engage and you have to keep them, you know, involved,

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<v Speaker 1>you have to keep them on your side, you have

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<v Speaker 1>to keep them loyal basically, right. And the thing about

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<v Speaker 1>Adams fascinated that he spent his entire career basically engineering

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<v Speaker 1>these loyalty reward programs. And if you go back to

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<v Speaker 1>the nineteen nine his first job is at Panama. He

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<v Speaker 1>did World Pass, the airline's first loyalty rewards program. Back then,

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<v Speaker 1>the whole thing was like, Okay, if we want to

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<v Speaker 1>talk to our customers, we're either going to have to

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<v Speaker 1>die a really expensive ad on one of the three

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<v Speaker 1>broadcast TV networks or in the national magazine is going

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<v Speaker 1>to cost a lot. And suddenly there was this new way.

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<v Speaker 1>Computers are getting more expensi less expensive, more powerful. We

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<v Speaker 1>can keep track of our customers. We can talk to

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<v Speaker 1>them directly. You know you kind of like take that. Adams,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, did their first program. Then he went to

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<v Speaker 1>Western Airlines to the loyalty program for them, then Hyatt

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<v Speaker 1>Hotel vl uh, you know, Norwegian Cruise Line, the seventies

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<v Speaker 1>six ers, everywhere he's gone, he's kept working on these programs.

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<v Speaker 1>Suddenly you get to the present day and using social media,

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<v Speaker 1>suddenly you know, he can talk directly to his customers.

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<v Speaker 1>The fact that's amazing to me is that he managed

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<v Speaker 1>to somehow extend this whole tradition to investors, like if you,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, invest in US, you have AMC stock, you

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<v Speaker 1>buy stock, you hold on the stock, We're going to

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<v Speaker 1>give your rewards. You know, we're going to give you

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<v Speaker 1>a free tub of popcorn. Which sounds insane, right, it

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<v Speaker 1>just sounds completely made up, But actually that's kind of

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<v Speaker 1>what he's done, and to remarkable degree, through some combination

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<v Speaker 1>of his own charisma on Twitter and his own ability

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<v Speaker 1>to kind of, you know, give this sense of exclusivity

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<v Speaker 1>to this large group of retail investors. That's a part

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<v Speaker 1>of something special he's managed so far to hold onto them.

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<v Speaker 1>What I love about this piece, among the many parts

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<v Speaker 1>about it, is that you include some of the memes

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<v Speaker 1>the art department just fantastic and being able to include

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<v Speaker 1>days and if you're watching us on YouTube you can

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<v Speaker 1>see some of these means of course, they call in

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<v Speaker 1>the silver backs. They're lot of sort of guerrilla themed

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<v Speaker 1>memes that have proliferated on social media. Felix, let's talk

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<v Speaker 1>about gold mining, because your piece has some incredible color

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<v Speaker 1>as to how this deal went down. Yeah, because we

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<v Speaker 1>all kind of heard it when they announced it and

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<v Speaker 1>they said, you know, AMC's you know, just acquiring of

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<v Speaker 1>this gold mine in the body. Everyone was like, what, like,

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<v Speaker 1>what are you talking about? Literally is no, it's a metaphor, right,

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<v Speaker 1>there's a crypto mining operation. Like, no, it's actually a

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<v Speaker 1>gold and silver mine out there in the Black Rock desert.

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<v Speaker 1>So for months we were like just we're dying to know,

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<v Speaker 1>like how did this whole thing go down? And one

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<v Speaker 1>of the fun parts of the article, of the fun

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<v Speaker 1>parts of reporting that was kind of doing the TikTok

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<v Speaker 1>of like these guys, you know, showing how this deal

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<v Speaker 1>came together. Um, Jason Mudrick, Mudrick Capital really brought it

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<v Speaker 1>to AMC Um you know, Adam talking about why he

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<v Speaker 1>wanted in on it. Then jumping on an airplane, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>flying you know, picking and everybody up going out to

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<v Speaker 1>this tiny little airport and win a Muka nevada um.

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<v Speaker 1>And then you know, driving out to this gold mine

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<v Speaker 1>at dawn. I mean, the whole thing is just incredible, Um,

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<v Speaker 1>the way it went down and hilarious on many different levels. Um.

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<v Speaker 1>And then just like the thought of like what it's

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<v Speaker 1>like they get the kind of like pile into this

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<v Speaker 1>trailer at this gold mine in the middle of nowhere

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<v Speaker 1>it's the only place has WiFi for like hundreds of miles,

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<v Speaker 1>and then have to like jump on the phone and

0:12:31.080 --> 0:12:33.719
<v Speaker 1>sell this to all the AMC board members like this

0:12:33.960 --> 0:12:37.559
<v Speaker 1>is why you know it makes sense for a you know,

0:12:37.679 --> 0:12:41.640
<v Speaker 1>the world's largest movie theater chain in two thousand twenty

0:12:41.760 --> 0:12:44.439
<v Speaker 1>two to be invested in the gold mine. Felix I said, godman,

0:12:44.520 --> 0:12:46.719
<v Speaker 1>you really made me scratch my head. I remember when

0:12:46.760 --> 0:12:49.439
<v Speaker 1>that crossed the Bloomberg reading your story. What made me

0:12:49.480 --> 0:12:53.360
<v Speaker 1>scratch my head? Is Nicole Kidman, the first lady of AMC. Like,

0:12:53.720 --> 0:12:58.280
<v Speaker 1>like every aspect of the story, you just kind of like, what, yeah, well,

0:12:58.400 --> 0:13:02.480
<v Speaker 1>I mean that's part of you know, part of the branding. Um.

0:13:02.760 --> 0:13:05.319
<v Speaker 1>I think, you know, there's only so many ways you

0:13:05.400 --> 0:13:08.960
<v Speaker 1>can brand the movie theater chain. And I think typically

0:13:09.080 --> 0:13:11.280
<v Speaker 1>people choose what movie they're going to go to based

0:13:11.320 --> 0:13:15.360
<v Speaker 1>on the product and the proximity it is to their house, right,

0:13:15.440 --> 0:13:17.240
<v Speaker 1>they don't care usually if they're going to go to

0:13:17.320 --> 0:13:21.719
<v Speaker 1>like an AMC or Regal whatever, and especially with the multiplexes,

0:13:22.080 --> 0:13:24.760
<v Speaker 1>but there are theater chains out there have done incredible

0:13:24.880 --> 0:13:27.800
<v Speaker 1>job of branding themselves. I always point to Alamo, which

0:13:27.840 --> 0:13:29.920
<v Speaker 1>Alamo Drafthouse. I think they do a great job. And

0:13:30.160 --> 0:13:31.800
<v Speaker 1>one of the ways they've done a great job of

0:13:31.840 --> 0:13:35.920
<v Speaker 1>brandon selves is those pre movie attractions they show you.

0:13:36.000 --> 0:13:39.400
<v Speaker 1>It's always like very instinctive and cool feeling. And you know,

0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:41.880
<v Speaker 1>I think this is kind of like the AMC version

0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:44.480
<v Speaker 1>of that, which is like, we have an opportunity before

0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:48.000
<v Speaker 1>the movies come on, um to do something that makes

0:13:48.080 --> 0:13:51.280
<v Speaker 1>it feel like special somehow. In this case, you know,

0:13:51.360 --> 0:13:53.520
<v Speaker 1>they went out in the cool kidman did these promotions,

0:13:53.920 --> 0:13:56.559
<v Speaker 1>talked about oh you know there's a coming back. It's

0:13:56.559 --> 0:13:59.760
<v Speaker 1>American institution, as we want to know, in like a

0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:02.559
<v Speaker 1>Another aspect of this story is like how when she

0:14:02.640 --> 0:14:05.440
<v Speaker 1>got paid Jill quick thoughts as we wrap up here,

0:14:06.200 --> 0:14:07.760
<v Speaker 1>you know, just as we wrap it, you know, it's

0:14:07.960 --> 0:14:09.880
<v Speaker 1>the meme stock moment. It's like, you know, we have

0:14:10.000 --> 0:14:12.240
<v Speaker 1>these ebbs and flows to it. I'm just gonna be

0:14:12.360 --> 0:14:15.839
<v Speaker 1>really curious to watch how AMC fairs. Uh, you know,

0:14:16.200 --> 0:14:19.720
<v Speaker 1>we're obviously watching bed Bath and Beyond Dowid's Thing. Am

0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:22.920
<v Speaker 1>wanted another one to watch, no doubt about it. AMC

0:14:23.080 --> 0:14:26.280
<v Speaker 1>by the way down eight percent today, Joel Weber, Felix Gillette,

0:14:26.440 --> 0:14:31.360
<v Speaker 1>thank you so much. This is Bloomberg Business Week with

0:14:31.560 --> 0:14:36.760
<v Speaker 1>Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Well,

0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:39.040
<v Speaker 1>the most read story on the Bloomberg is what about

0:14:39.080 --> 0:14:41.240
<v Speaker 1>the individual who put an end to the crazy six

0:14:41.360 --> 0:14:43.560
<v Speaker 1>day run of meme stock bed Bath and Beyond, a

0:14:43.680 --> 0:14:47.000
<v Speaker 1>run that added something like a D to the share price?

0:14:47.280 --> 0:14:52.120
<v Speaker 1>The individual activist geralda Ryan Cohen, who apparently Tim now

0:14:52.240 --> 0:14:54.280
<v Speaker 1>kind of wants to say bye bye to Bed Bath

0:14:54.360 --> 0:14:59.800
<v Speaker 1>and Beyond. Let's get all the details. B B not

0:15:00.000 --> 0:15:02.480
<v Speaker 1>be confused with Best Guys ticker, which is quite a bit.

0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:05.760
<v Speaker 1>Give you a. Balg is Equity America's team leader for

0:15:05.840 --> 0:15:08.240
<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Near. She joins us via zoom from our bureau

0:15:08.360 --> 0:15:11.520
<v Speaker 1>in Toronto, Canada. Did you help us understand what's going

0:15:11.520 --> 0:15:14.200
<v Speaker 1>on here with Bed Bath and Beyond? So Ryan Cohen,

0:15:14.400 --> 0:15:17.480
<v Speaker 1>people know him from Chewy fame with his now activist

0:15:17.520 --> 0:15:22.480
<v Speaker 1>and activist investor fund Our Ventures bought a steak in

0:15:22.560 --> 0:15:25.200
<v Speaker 1>Bed Bath and Beyond back in March. So he is

0:15:25.240 --> 0:15:28.080
<v Speaker 1>he fully filing to get out of it because he

0:15:28.360 --> 0:15:31.040
<v Speaker 1>may sell up to this many shares, right, I mean,

0:15:31.160 --> 0:15:33.120
<v Speaker 1>it sure looks like it at this point. You know,

0:15:33.240 --> 0:15:35.800
<v Speaker 1>he has put in a filing saying that he would

0:15:35.920 --> 0:15:38.640
<v Speaker 1>like to sell all of his shares and some call

0:15:38.720 --> 0:15:42.040
<v Speaker 1>options as well on bed Bath and beyond. I mean,

0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:45.600
<v Speaker 1>there's rumors going around that he's already sold his stake.

0:15:45.640 --> 0:15:47.320
<v Speaker 1>There are other people who think that he might sell

0:15:47.400 --> 0:15:49.520
<v Speaker 1>it in batches. You know. Right now we're just sort

0:15:49.520 --> 0:15:51.760
<v Speaker 1>of waiting to see what he has to say about

0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:53.520
<v Speaker 1>this whole thing at this point. But you know, you

0:15:53.600 --> 0:15:56.360
<v Speaker 1>guys are right, it's just been such a wild ride

0:15:56.440 --> 0:15:58.680
<v Speaker 1>for this dock at this point. What I love about

0:15:58.720 --> 0:16:00.800
<v Speaker 1>this is it reminds me we talk so much about

0:16:01.200 --> 0:16:03.920
<v Speaker 1>retail traders, right this is their game and they're playing

0:16:03.960 --> 0:16:06.080
<v Speaker 1>with all of these meme stocks. It says to me, though,

0:16:06.200 --> 0:16:08.480
<v Speaker 1>this is a reminder though, that are there are some

0:16:08.560 --> 0:16:10.640
<v Speaker 1>big time investors in this name as well, and other

0:16:10.720 --> 0:16:14.600
<v Speaker 1>Memes stocks potentially. And that's exactly it. You know, they

0:16:14.680 --> 0:16:17.600
<v Speaker 1>have this whole notion of Yolo you only live once

0:16:17.680 --> 0:16:20.840
<v Speaker 1>that they're getting into the stock, and they for some reason,

0:16:20.920 --> 0:16:24.200
<v Speaker 1>I cannot understand this why they love Ryan Cohen so much?

0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:26.240
<v Speaker 1>And you know when they get into it. They are

0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:29.640
<v Speaker 1>pumping up their own investment and their own shares, right,

0:16:29.680 --> 0:16:32.160
<v Speaker 1>They're getting excited about it, and they're doing this. And

0:16:32.320 --> 0:16:34.920
<v Speaker 1>now when you get like proper news that's coming out

0:16:35.000 --> 0:16:38.760
<v Speaker 1>on the stock and a potential super large shareholder trying

0:16:38.800 --> 0:16:41.400
<v Speaker 1>to get out of this company, that's where they're really

0:16:41.480 --> 0:16:43.400
<v Speaker 1>taking a hit at this point. And I'm not sure

0:16:43.440 --> 0:16:45.800
<v Speaker 1>a lot of them actually fully understand what's at stake

0:16:45.840 --> 0:16:49.120
<v Speaker 1>at this point. Yeah, who is Ryan Cohen? Just to

0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:51.680
<v Speaker 1>give our audience if they're not familiar with him, like,

0:16:51.760 --> 0:16:55.640
<v Speaker 1>who is this guy? So he is an activist in

0:16:55.840 --> 0:16:58.280
<v Speaker 1>the world of finance at this point. You know, his

0:16:58.480 --> 0:17:00.480
<v Speaker 1>claim to fame, or at least what we tend to

0:17:00.560 --> 0:17:02.920
<v Speaker 1>think of as his claim to fame, is when he

0:17:03.120 --> 0:17:06.680
<v Speaker 1>got into Chewy Um the pet company, and he made

0:17:06.760 --> 0:17:09.479
<v Speaker 1>you know, massive restructuring with the company and since then

0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.159
<v Speaker 1>it's done really well. And I think that's what retail

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.120
<v Speaker 1>traders really got into in this case. When he got

0:17:15.160 --> 0:17:18.080
<v Speaker 1>into game Stop, they were really hoping for a similar

0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:21.400
<v Speaker 1>turnaround that they saw with Chewy. They did the same

0:17:21.480 --> 0:17:23.440
<v Speaker 1>thing with Bed Bath and Beyond, and frankly, I just

0:17:23.600 --> 0:17:26.080
<v Speaker 1>have not seen that with Ryan Cohen and both of

0:17:26.160 --> 0:17:28.680
<v Speaker 1>these companies at this point. With game Stop he brought

0:17:28.760 --> 0:17:31.960
<v Speaker 1>in a bunch of new executives, mainly from Amazon. And

0:17:32.240 --> 0:17:34.440
<v Speaker 1>with bid Bath and Beyond, you know, he outstead the

0:17:34.560 --> 0:17:36.800
<v Speaker 1>CEO and brought in a new CEO and he also

0:17:36.880 --> 0:17:41.200
<v Speaker 1>got three independent directors at the company. But fundamentals wise,

0:17:41.480 --> 0:17:44.600
<v Speaker 1>both these companies are still struggling at this point. We

0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:47.800
<v Speaker 1>have not seen a corporate growth turn turnaround for game

0:17:47.880 --> 0:17:50.800
<v Speaker 1>Stop and bed Bath and Beyond. Most recent earnings results

0:17:50.800 --> 0:17:53.720
<v Speaker 1>were still pretty dismal. Um for investors out there, is

0:17:54.160 --> 0:17:56.879
<v Speaker 1>this meme stock rally different than the memestock rally we

0:17:56.920 --> 0:18:01.760
<v Speaker 1>saw in the winter? You yeah, it is. It's definitely

0:18:01.840 --> 0:18:04.280
<v Speaker 1>on a smaller scale at this point. I mean when

0:18:04.359 --> 0:18:07.000
<v Speaker 1>we saw it with game Stop and even a m C,

0:18:07.359 --> 0:18:09.639
<v Speaker 1>you know, more than a year ago, you were seeing

0:18:10.040 --> 0:18:13.600
<v Speaker 1>a hundred percent move, a hundred and fifty percent rallies

0:18:13.760 --> 0:18:17.480
<v Speaker 1>on any given day and swift reversals as well. Trading

0:18:17.600 --> 0:18:20.199
<v Speaker 1>volumes were a lot bigger than we're seeing right now

0:18:20.280 --> 0:18:23.120
<v Speaker 1>with Bed Bath and Beyond. Um, and it really spread

0:18:23.240 --> 0:18:26.280
<v Speaker 1>out to a lot more stocks than what we're seeing

0:18:26.440 --> 0:18:29.960
<v Speaker 1>right now with these companies. So it's different and yet

0:18:30.119 --> 0:18:32.760
<v Speaker 1>the same in the sense that you are seeing big moves,

0:18:32.840 --> 0:18:35.800
<v Speaker 1>they're just not as massive as what we saw um

0:18:35.880 --> 0:18:37.600
<v Speaker 1>a year and a half ago or even almost two

0:18:37.680 --> 0:18:40.359
<v Speaker 1>years ago. I gotta say caveat to m tour, you know,

0:18:40.480 --> 0:18:42.359
<v Speaker 1>buyer bware like I feel like when you look at bed,

0:18:42.400 --> 0:18:44.800
<v Speaker 1>bath and beyond. I mean you've got fort of the

0:18:44.840 --> 0:18:48.199
<v Speaker 1>float shorted. I mean investors have to understand that there

0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:50.399
<v Speaker 1>could be a big swing either way. Correct and just

0:18:50.440 --> 0:18:53.760
<v Speaker 1>got about thirty seconds. Absolutely, and that's really it. You

0:18:53.800 --> 0:18:56.440
<v Speaker 1>know there will be big swings. You have to be careful.

0:18:56.520 --> 0:19:00.240
<v Speaker 1>Analysts are saying, pay attention to the fundamentals more sold

0:19:00.280 --> 0:19:02.840
<v Speaker 1>than anything else that's going on on the retail side

0:19:02.880 --> 0:19:04.399
<v Speaker 1>of things. Look at the sale side of thing in

0:19:04.520 --> 0:19:06.960
<v Speaker 1>terms of analyst you've got one by four hold and

0:19:07.040 --> 0:19:11.720
<v Speaker 1>twelve cells on this name. Just say that doesn't match

0:19:11.800 --> 0:19:13.280
<v Speaker 1>with what we've seen in the performance of the stuff.

0:19:13.280 --> 0:19:15.080
<v Speaker 1>I'm gonna do some shopping there ahead of my daughter

0:19:15.119 --> 0:19:18.800
<v Speaker 1>going back to college. So you got off coupons. You

0:19:18.880 --> 0:19:20.840
<v Speaker 1>gotta love those coupons. Yeah, they send them to you

0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:25.000
<v Speaker 1>electronically too. Those things are great. Oh yeah, of course

0:19:26.960 --> 0:19:34.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm bro journal. Yeah, but you let me drive. Oh no, no, no, no,

0:19:34.560 --> 0:19:40.159
<v Speaker 1>who's going home? Right? Please, I'll do the dravel. I

0:19:40.280 --> 0:19:48.399
<v Speaker 1>want to drive. It's a good question drive. This is

0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:54.560
<v Speaker 1>the Drive to the Clothes on Bluebird Radio. All Right,

0:19:54.600 --> 0:19:56.080
<v Speaker 1>we have about ten and a half minutes left in

0:19:56.119 --> 0:20:00.359
<v Speaker 1>today's trading session and we've been bouncing around in today's trade.

0:20:00.560 --> 0:20:02.680
<v Speaker 1>Right now, just turning off our highs of the day.

0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:04.960
<v Speaker 1>We're in the green age. You heard from Charlie Pellett

0:20:05.000 --> 0:20:09.600
<v Speaker 1>on all those major averages. But just up a tad, Tim, Well,

0:20:09.640 --> 0:20:11.720
<v Speaker 1>we're very pleased with to have with us this afternoon.

0:20:11.760 --> 0:20:16.719
<v Speaker 1>Alan Zafronia little wacky to Alan, but that's okay. I mean, Alan,

0:20:16.840 --> 0:20:19.280
<v Speaker 1>don't forget that Alan zafron Um. One time when he

0:20:19.359 --> 0:20:22.280
<v Speaker 1>was on air with us there was an earthquake and right,

0:20:22.480 --> 0:20:24.760
<v Speaker 1>oh my good, good memory. M Alan. It's good to

0:20:24.760 --> 0:20:27.280
<v Speaker 1>have you with us. How are you. I'm doing great

0:20:27.320 --> 0:20:29.040
<v Speaker 1>and it looks like the markets are shake it too,

0:20:29.160 --> 0:20:31.960
<v Speaker 1>but straight up recently right yeah, like I even you know,

0:20:32.080 --> 0:20:34.000
<v Speaker 1>you even got some big laughs from the control room

0:20:34.040 --> 0:20:36.440
<v Speaker 1>there on that one. I like that. Um. Alan Scotting

0:20:36.480 --> 0:20:38.640
<v Speaker 1>partner and co Cy at i e Q Capital joins

0:20:38.720 --> 0:20:42.120
<v Speaker 1>us on the phone from Foster City, California. So it's

0:20:42.160 --> 0:20:45.000
<v Speaker 1>puzzling to me. Alan. We have FED officials coming out

0:20:45.119 --> 0:20:47.879
<v Speaker 1>and you know, saying over and over again, day in

0:20:47.960 --> 0:20:50.760
<v Speaker 1>and day out, we gotta raise rates to combat inflation.

0:20:50.840 --> 0:20:53.119
<v Speaker 1>We're nowhere close to being done with that, you know,

0:20:53.520 --> 0:20:56.840
<v Speaker 1>in similar phrasing. But yet the market marches higher. What

0:20:56.920 --> 0:21:01.520
<v Speaker 1>gives well, what gives tims A s that the technicals

0:21:01.560 --> 0:21:04.240
<v Speaker 1>are once again ahead of the fundamentals. We see the

0:21:04.359 --> 0:21:08.000
<v Speaker 1>time and again. So if you believe the stock market

0:21:08.080 --> 0:21:12.600
<v Speaker 1>with this incredible technical uh flush upward we're having, the

0:21:12.680 --> 0:21:14.600
<v Speaker 1>Fed's gonna get it right. We're gonna thread the needle.

0:21:14.720 --> 0:21:17.080
<v Speaker 1>We're going to avoid a recession, is what the stock

0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:20.240
<v Speaker 1>market is signaling, or at a minimum, the recession will

0:21:20.280 --> 0:21:22.440
<v Speaker 1>be so shallow that you won't actually see it. Earnings

0:21:22.560 --> 0:21:25.359
<v Speaker 1>recession companies will can you grow earnings like eight percent

0:21:25.440 --> 0:21:28.479
<v Speaker 1>a year and we'll mitigate all these concerns. We'll get

0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:31.439
<v Speaker 1>through this scare and we'll be back to a more

0:21:31.520 --> 0:21:33.680
<v Speaker 1>normalized world. That's what the stock market is telling you.

0:21:34.280 --> 0:21:38.399
<v Speaker 1>Do you buy it? I buy that the likelihood of

0:21:38.480 --> 0:21:40.960
<v Speaker 1>the Feds thread and threading the needle is much greater

0:21:41.119 --> 0:21:43.960
<v Speaker 1>than it was a month ago. And the reason I

0:21:44.080 --> 0:21:47.000
<v Speaker 1>buy that is you're finally getting inflation readings that are

0:21:47.040 --> 0:21:51.000
<v Speaker 1>heading down. You're getting consumer surveys indicating that their belief

0:21:51.240 --> 0:21:54.520
<v Speaker 1>inflation is heading down. Is also the case, you're getting

0:21:54.840 --> 0:21:59.200
<v Speaker 1>confirmation from independent sources conveying that the set seems to

0:21:59.240 --> 0:22:02.520
<v Speaker 1>be attacking this problem. Well, also get it from the

0:22:02.560 --> 0:22:05.800
<v Speaker 1>standpoint that it's been an interesting time. It turns out

0:22:06.760 --> 0:22:11.640
<v Speaker 1>and in this earnings estimates, overall earnings expectations heading into

0:22:11.680 --> 0:22:14.000
<v Speaker 1>the end year have only been cut by about two percent.

0:22:14.280 --> 0:22:17.760
<v Speaker 1>Heading into this earning season, the market was pricing in

0:22:17.800 --> 0:22:21.160
<v Speaker 1>about fifteen percent cuts and earnings expectations, and so what's

0:22:21.200 --> 0:22:24.960
<v Speaker 1>going on is earnings or visions are far less bad

0:22:25.800 --> 0:22:28.960
<v Speaker 1>than what everyone believes. Of course, you get target target,

0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:33.200
<v Speaker 1>or you get selected companies and sectors that are disproportionately

0:22:33.320 --> 0:22:36.840
<v Speaker 1>hit and revised downward, but an aggregate, you're still at

0:22:36.840 --> 0:22:40.280
<v Speaker 1>a point where you're getting a significant number of companies beating.

0:22:40.320 --> 0:22:44.960
<v Speaker 1>In fact, turns out companies have actually beat estimates and

0:22:45.000 --> 0:22:47.840
<v Speaker 1>not average, by about four percent this quarter um. And

0:22:48.000 --> 0:22:50.600
<v Speaker 1>so that's what's going on. Earnings aren't as bad as

0:22:50.680 --> 0:22:53.639
<v Speaker 1>people fear. Inflation is starting to come down. You have

0:22:53.760 --> 0:22:58.800
<v Speaker 1>a remarkably over sold short term and technical condition, and

0:22:59.000 --> 0:23:02.479
<v Speaker 1>if you do read chartists and technical analysts are out there,

0:23:02.520 --> 0:23:05.240
<v Speaker 1>they'll tell you that the set up right now is

0:23:05.359 --> 0:23:09.600
<v Speaker 1>for a continuation of this rally. As one example of

0:23:09.720 --> 0:23:14.440
<v Speaker 1>Bank of America does surveys, the fund managers survey. Right, Yeah,

0:23:14.760 --> 0:23:18.800
<v Speaker 1>it's still still reading a zero, which is historically been

0:23:18.880 --> 0:23:23.280
<v Speaker 1>incredibly bullish. So too many investors caught too barish and

0:23:23.359 --> 0:23:27.359
<v Speaker 1>too quick a time frame and technical indicators or that

0:23:27.480 --> 0:23:30.080
<v Speaker 1>this market is likely in the short run to move higher.

0:23:30.280 --> 0:23:33.000
<v Speaker 1>We've talked a lot about the retracement right from peak

0:23:33.040 --> 0:23:37.720
<v Speaker 1>to trough retracement you know of that, and how that

0:23:37.880 --> 0:23:42.959
<v Speaker 1>that is a positive indicator from more upside to continue

0:23:43.000 --> 0:23:46.240
<v Speaker 1>alan and yet that's a pretty significant retracement. So it

0:23:46.359 --> 0:23:48.880
<v Speaker 1>does make me wonder, you know, when do we when

0:23:48.920 --> 0:23:50.879
<v Speaker 1>do we think that maybe things are getting a bit

0:23:50.920 --> 0:23:53.120
<v Speaker 1>ahead of itself, especially when you have somebody like Neil

0:23:53.200 --> 0:23:56.080
<v Speaker 1>kosh Kari, who was one of the more devish members

0:23:56.760 --> 0:24:01.000
<v Speaker 1>of the FED, saying okay, we need to high grates. Yeah,

0:24:01.040 --> 0:24:03.879
<v Speaker 1>he came out today and still seems pretty unclear. And

0:24:04.280 --> 0:24:06.840
<v Speaker 1>Ballard came out today and said, you know, maybe we

0:24:06.840 --> 0:24:10.760
<v Speaker 1>should still be raising by basis points in September. There

0:24:10.960 --> 0:24:14.119
<v Speaker 1>is a bullish argument to that, and that bullish argument is,

0:24:14.119 --> 0:24:15.880
<v Speaker 1>as much as we don't like grate hikes, let's take

0:24:15.920 --> 0:24:18.879
<v Speaker 1>the medicine now rather than take it later. If we

0:24:19.000 --> 0:24:22.480
<v Speaker 1>do larger rate hikes up front, there will be fewer

0:24:22.800 --> 0:24:25.840
<v Speaker 1>total basis points up in rate hikes we need to go.

0:24:26.560 --> 0:24:28.880
<v Speaker 1>And maybe that's the best thing to take the tough medicine.

0:24:28.880 --> 0:24:33.600
<v Speaker 1>You mentioned, Carol uh something about fifty percent retracements. We

0:24:33.720 --> 0:24:36.679
<v Speaker 1>went back and looked here. If we have this right,

0:24:36.680 --> 0:24:38.600
<v Speaker 1>if you go back to World War Two, there have

0:24:38.680 --> 0:24:42.200
<v Speaker 1>been nineteen different occasions where you had the market the

0:24:42.320 --> 0:24:47.720
<v Speaker 1>sp specifically fell more than percent or more basically down.

0:24:48.320 --> 0:24:52.480
<v Speaker 1>If the market breaks back up above that fifty retracement test,

0:24:53.000 --> 0:24:55.200
<v Speaker 1>it signaled the end of the bull market all but

0:24:55.359 --> 0:24:59.520
<v Speaker 1>one time, meaning there was some durability to the rally.

0:24:59.720 --> 0:25:03.200
<v Speaker 1>End of the bull market. I'm sorry to send the

0:25:03.280 --> 0:25:04.960
<v Speaker 1>end of the bear market and into the beginning of

0:25:05.000 --> 0:25:09.200
<v Speaker 1>a new bull market. So the bull markets, the indications

0:25:09.240 --> 0:25:12.399
<v Speaker 1>are that one you once you recover more than fifty

0:25:12.880 --> 0:25:16.280
<v Speaker 1>from that bottom, it's probably gonna sustain alright. So any

0:25:16.920 --> 0:25:20.320
<v Speaker 1>any anything barish out there that you're seeing right now, well, sir,

0:25:20.480 --> 0:25:23.200
<v Speaker 1>this there's plenty of the barish about. We still think

0:25:23.720 --> 0:25:26.960
<v Speaker 1>in particular, China's economy is slowing. Europe is actually in

0:25:27.040 --> 0:25:29.880
<v Speaker 1>a recession at this point. Their gas prices are way

0:25:30.000 --> 0:25:32.240
<v Speaker 1>higher than what when you are experiencing here in the US.

0:25:32.800 --> 0:25:35.399
<v Speaker 1>That means you're going to have less ability to export

0:25:35.480 --> 0:25:38.000
<v Speaker 1>goods and services abroad. You have a slowing economy, you

0:25:38.040 --> 0:25:41.320
<v Speaker 1>still have tremendous geopolitical and certainty both from respect to

0:25:41.400 --> 0:25:44.280
<v Speaker 1>China as well as with what's going on in Eastern

0:25:44.320 --> 0:25:47.960
<v Speaker 1>Europe currently. And we still are in an environment we're

0:25:48.040 --> 0:25:51.520
<v Speaker 1>earnings growth rates, albeit they're not getting cut as much

0:25:51.560 --> 0:25:54.359
<v Speaker 1>as feared, there's still being cut a bit, and so

0:25:54.600 --> 0:25:57.960
<v Speaker 1>the prospective rate of growth of earnings next year is

0:25:58.080 --> 0:26:00.520
<v Speaker 1>lower than what you would typically see it this point

0:26:01.080 --> 0:26:03.800
<v Speaker 1>in the calendar year. So we're looking at growth, but

0:26:04.119 --> 0:26:07.040
<v Speaker 1>slower growth than what you would normally expect looking one

0:26:07.119 --> 0:26:10.600
<v Speaker 1>year forward. So fundamentally still challenges. Um Alan just got

0:26:10.640 --> 0:26:12.960
<v Speaker 1>a few seconds left here. What really struck me Earlier

0:26:12.960 --> 0:26:14.879
<v Speaker 1>in the week when we talked with our Juna Martin Adams,

0:26:15.280 --> 0:26:19.080
<v Speaker 1>head of our equities team here at Bloomberg Intelligence, but

0:26:19.240 --> 0:26:22.719
<v Speaker 1>reminded us that she kind of thought. You know, technically

0:26:22.760 --> 0:26:25.600
<v Speaker 1>we're in a recession, but maybe we're already through it,

0:26:26.080 --> 0:26:28.520
<v Speaker 1>but that you know, economists are talking about a deeper

0:26:28.600 --> 0:26:33.639
<v Speaker 1>recession again in isn't that going to be potentially problematic?

0:26:33.720 --> 0:26:35.560
<v Speaker 1>And do we as investors need to be kind of

0:26:35.880 --> 0:26:39.720
<v Speaker 1>thinking about that? And just got about thirty seconds. Yeah,

0:26:39.800 --> 0:26:41.520
<v Speaker 1>that's saying we're in the eye of the storm and

0:26:41.560 --> 0:26:45.240
<v Speaker 1>we're halfway through and another on the other side. Yeah, yeah, yeah, Well,

0:26:45.760 --> 0:26:47.800
<v Speaker 1>unfortunately you and I can't answer that because it's going

0:26:47.880 --> 0:26:50.200
<v Speaker 1>to come down to how many times the set has

0:26:50.280 --> 0:26:52.440
<v Speaker 1>to raise the set funds, right, because the effect of

0:26:52.520 --> 0:26:55.160
<v Speaker 1>that rate high takes a full year to really work

0:26:55.200 --> 0:26:58.560
<v Speaker 1>through the economy. So we just don't know yet. It's

0:26:58.600 --> 0:27:01.399
<v Speaker 1>going to be dependent on for factors that the argument

0:27:01.600 --> 0:27:03.920
<v Speaker 1>stay diversified, you know, don't put all your eggs in

0:27:03.960 --> 0:27:08.040
<v Speaker 1>one basket, right, which means that potentially when are depending

0:27:08.040 --> 0:27:10.160
<v Speaker 1>on when the FED ends, we could still be working

0:27:10.200 --> 0:27:12.520
<v Speaker 1>through the impact of that well into late next year.

0:27:12.680 --> 0:27:15.480
<v Speaker 1>I'm always smart. Ellen Zafron, thank you so much, founding

0:27:15.520 --> 0:27:17.960
<v Speaker 1>partner co CEO at I e Q Capital on the

0:27:18.000 --> 0:27:22.920
<v Speaker 1>phone from Foster City, California. Thanks for listening to Bloomberg

0:27:22.920 --> 0:27:26.600
<v Speaker 1>Business Week. Download the podcast on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg

0:27:26.680 --> 0:27:28.480
<v Speaker 1>dot com, and you can also listen to our radio

0:27:28.560 --> 0:27:31.120
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0:27:31.200 --> 0:27:33.520
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