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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Our team
Speaker 2: is trying to give you wonderful equity analysis of this
Speaker 2: crazy market. And all I can say is to go
Speaker 2: from Captain Kaminsky of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to
Speaker 2: Amy Wu Silverman Instant.
Speaker 3: Is what this is about.
Speaker 2: She's with RBC, this interview, this conversation hugely anticipated, Amy Will,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna cut to the chase. Everyone's telling us there's
Speaker 2: massive options speculation.
Speaker 3: On a daily basis.
Speaker 2: Is that like portfolio insurance in nineteen eighty seven, is
Speaker 2: there a.
Speaker 3: Real risk here because of the option roulette that's going on.
Speaker 1: You know you would think so, Tom, But most of
Speaker 1: the activity we see in options right now is not
Speaker 1: for insurance. It's to bet on further upside. It's to
Speaker 1: perpetuate fomo, it's to beget momentum, and it is not
Speaker 1: for hedging. It is really historically out of whack with
Speaker 1: what we would expect from all that empirical data that
Speaker 1: I looked at Princeton.
Speaker 2: This is a special treat Damian Sasawer's wheelhouse. Mister sasawur
Speaker 2: take over the interview and make it smarter.
Speaker 4: Well, Amy, I'm gonna try and throw you ball here
Speaker 4: because you know, I'm an emerging market guy, but an
Speaker 4: emerging market fixed income guy. So I'm going to look
Speaker 4: at emerging market equities here. I'm going to look at
Speaker 4: that big MSCI E M E T F run by
Speaker 4: black Rock, and I'm going to look at the skew,
Speaker 4: all the call buying, all the bullish call buying that's
Speaker 4: been going on. I mean, should we look through that
Speaker 4: and see that as a signal that perhaps, you know,
Speaker 4: em equities are going to go up from here? I mean,
Speaker 4: what do you how do you look at skew? How
Speaker 4: do you look at the options markets on some of
Speaker 4: these large ETFs.
Speaker 1: I think that's a really interesting question. I will tell
Speaker 1: you I was actually in the UK a few weeks
Speaker 1: ago and I just asked investors that kind of point blank,
Speaker 1: you know, why is this call SKU bid. It's actually
Speaker 1: bid in the other ATF's proxies for China like FXI
Speaker 1: as well. And what we have heard from investors is,
Speaker 1: you know, a few years ago, the trade of the
Speaker 1: moment was China rebound. It did not happen. Folks are
Speaker 1: a little bit worried that it may never happen, but
Speaker 1: the right tail is that it could happen. Yes, so
Speaker 1: a lot of this bid is actually a right tail
Speaker 1: hedge to the idea that we have bottomed. So I
Speaker 1: will say investors don't think that that is true, but
Speaker 1: that's certainly they're worried and they're not positioned for it yet.
Speaker 4: I mean, I just have to cut you to our audience.
Speaker 4: You know how valuable that information is the fact that basically,
Speaker 4: I mean the China rebound trade, which you know people
Speaker 4: of poo pood now, I mean it's gone, it's forever gone,
Speaker 4: it's never going to come back. Just to play for
Speaker 4: that tail risk, I mean, makes a lot of sense,
Speaker 4: and to do it with voll at these levels, I mean, Amy,
Speaker 4: I agree completely. But you know, we were talking a
Speaker 4: little bit earlier about which volatility market we should be
Speaker 4: most focused on. Is it equity ball, is it ratefall,
Speaker 4: is it fxfall? What do you think?
Speaker 1: So of course I'm going to be a little biased
Speaker 1: because I'm an equity wall person. But you know, outside
Speaker 1: of rates ball, all the walls kind of look similar.
Speaker 1: It's not like you're getting anything different other than the
Speaker 1: rates ball universe. When you think cross asset, I mean,
Speaker 1: equity wall, especially on the left tail, is incredibly inexpensive.
Speaker 1: So there's only so many times a girl can cry
Speaker 1: wolf right. You know, people don't want to hear it.
Speaker 1: They don't want to be positioned where they're far more
Speaker 1: concerned about the reach.
Speaker 2: I was smarter in September of nineteen ninety eight than
Speaker 2: it was in July of nineteen ninety eight. And it
Speaker 2: had to do with the dreaded l word, Amy wu
Speaker 2: Silverman leverage.
Speaker 3: And you know, we didn't know.
Speaker 2: What fifteen to one or twenty two to one until
Speaker 2: Myron Schulz explained it to us.
Speaker 3: What's the shadow right now? In the market. You can't
Speaker 3: tell me this is a free lunch.
Speaker 2: Is it like a blatant leverage, an implied leverage, or
Speaker 2: is it some other mystery I can't see.
Speaker 1: So, Tom, I'll tell you the hottest topic to debate
Speaker 1: right now and equities. It's just the idea of all
Speaker 1: the short volatility trades that we're seeing folks selling calls
Speaker 1: from harvesting, you know, volatility risk premium. If this some
Speaker 1: way implodes the way we saw from twenty eighteen's Wellmageddon,
Speaker 1: and you know this is going to sound a little
Speaker 1: party pooper, but we don't think so. Is the short answer.
Speaker 1: The kind of leverage in the system and the kind
Speaker 1: of trades that are going on, especially if you include
Speaker 1: that delta from the stock is just dissimilar. It doesn't
Speaker 1: mean it cannot end. It's just not going to end
Speaker 1: necessarily in the same way. And I think that most
Speaker 1: volatile people would say that that is so just given
Speaker 1: the nature of these traits vall mageddon.
Speaker 4: I mean, look, you know, for me, Amy, it's these
Speaker 4: buy right strategies and you know, these ETFs that are
Speaker 4: you know, trying to you know, get investors to you know,
Speaker 4: take advantage of that scream.
Speaker 2: You have to be mortals listening. Okay, please, this is
Speaker 2: a third rail for me. You buy the asset and
Speaker 2: you write the option against it to bring in.
Speaker 4: A further income. That's correct until it works. Continue exactly
Speaker 4: right now. They have ETFs that are supposed to mimic
Speaker 4: that type of a strategy. Amy, how convinced are you
Speaker 4: that that ETF is going to deliver that type of
Speaker 4: performance at the end of the day.
Speaker 1: So it's interesting in some ways this is like one
Speaker 1: of the most bread and butter traits of the derivatives world.
Speaker 1: That's kind of for a market where you don't see
Speaker 1: substantial upside, that's another way to get a little yielded
Speaker 1: a world where rates don't give you that much yield.
Speaker 1: What I think is interesting about the success of these
Speaker 1: products is we actually had a relatively high rate yield environment,
Speaker 1: especially compared to history, and then we've obviously had a
Speaker 1: market with certain stocks have absolutely ripped. So it works
Speaker 1: for some things, it doesn't necessarily work for others. It
Speaker 1: really depends on your underlier, right, it depends where that
Speaker 1: delta is coming from. But look, these are actually very
Speaker 1: bread and butter trades where if you have the underlying
Speaker 1: and you get stopped out. It's not really that big
Speaker 1: a deal.
Speaker 2: We're to go mathe here right now, folks, stay with me,
Speaker 2: and we're going to do the conceit of a global
Speaker 2: Wall Street audience again with the Amy wou Silverman of
Speaker 2: RBC Capital Markets. Amy, Well, if I haven't implied log
Speaker 2: normal distribution where I go up on a slope that's
Speaker 2: not as harsh is the slope that I go down,
Speaker 2: And if I have all the different leverage, the bets
Speaker 2: and the setups within the system where we are right now,
Speaker 2: I have parabolic charts, I got a squared function. It's
Speaker 2: incalculable in Nvidia, but particularly in something away from you.
Speaker 2: In bitcoin, do they track a log normal distribution on
Speaker 2: the way down? If Bitcoin goes down, if Nvidia goes down,
Speaker 2: in what way do they go down?
Speaker 1: So look, Tom, this goes back to the what is
Speaker 1: it an escalator up and then an elevator down? Right?
Speaker 1: And I do think you know, this is part of
Speaker 1: the concern. That's part of the concern with what I
Speaker 1: mentioned with these short wall trades. The really interesting thing
Speaker 1: I would say about bitcoin, because you know, you can't
Speaker 1: dabble in volatility without dabbling and crypto a little, is
Speaker 1: that this has historically been a risk acid correlation that's
Speaker 1: actually been positive, even though it's been made out not
Speaker 1: to be. However, we are actually seeing that correlation decline.
Speaker 1: So if you look three years ago, the correlation between
Speaker 1: just the simple equity market and bitcoin was fairly positive
Speaker 1: and it is still positive, to be clear, but it's
Speaker 1: actually come in a lot, and so it may actually
Speaker 1: begin to be behaving in the inflation head slash, you know,
Speaker 1: equity hedge that it was purported to be in the beginning.
Speaker 2: That's a critical sting.
Speaker 3: And I mean for Global Wall Street, what she just
Speaker 3: said is a huge deal.
Speaker 4: You know. And now I'm gonna just say ask the
Speaker 4: dumbest question, Amy. I mean, I'm looking at put call
Speaker 4: open interest on Nvidia. I mean, wow, I mean, talk
Speaker 4: to us about what your takeaway is from the options
Speaker 4: market on what is arguably the highest of high flying
Speaker 4: stocks in the US equity market.
Speaker 1: So I'll tell you, I think there's peak fomo when
Speaker 1: derivative strategists sit back and say wish I had an
Speaker 1: Nvidia all that's kind of how I felt after watching
Speaker 1: this thing, and watching this thing, Wow, what's interesting is
Speaker 1: after the recent selloff and in Nvidia, you know it's
Speaker 1: first one after a while, those calls didn't move, so
Speaker 1: meaning people weren't worried about the momentum. They went right
Speaker 1: back into it and those call skews are store at
Speaker 1: historic level, still saying incredibly bush things. March eighteenth, there
Speaker 1: is an AI conference with Nvidia that a lot of
Speaker 1: folks that we speak to are looking to play.
Speaker 2: Amy the Epsilon be with you, Emmy was Silverman there, folks.
Speaker 2: That was just a great call that will be feature
Speaker 2: today on our single Best Idea podcast.
Speaker 3: All of us checked out a math class. What we
Speaker 3: did Lee Squares. Katie Kaminski kept going, We're thrilled. She
Speaker 3: joins us this morning with Alpha Simplex as well.
Speaker 2: It's about trend, Yes, Is this bull market in equities
Speaker 2: trending normal? If you look at your work with Andrew
Speaker 2: Low at MIT back to the great trend followers, I
Speaker 2: think of Monroe, Trout and others, and quite frankly back
Speaker 2: to Gaus, is this a normal market?
Speaker 5: Well, I think that's a great question because if you
Speaker 5: look at trend signals across asset classes, equities is one
Speaker 5: of the weaker signals in general from a time serious perspective,
Speaker 5: but right now we're seeing something like we haven't seen
Speaker 5: since twenty seventeen in terms of the strength of those trends.
Speaker 2: When you look at the X axis, do you have
Speaker 2: a conviction and your setups, your trades, your belief in
Speaker 2: how you're going to deploy capital? On the X axis,
Speaker 2: are you thinking in minutes, days, weeks?
Speaker 3: Do you have the courage to make a bet out
Speaker 3: a month or six months?
Speaker 5: So we generally look at signals across multiple horizons, and
Speaker 5: when you look right now at where equities have moved,
Speaker 5: the turning point was in October and it's been I mean,
Speaker 5: look at S and P it's up almost twenty five
Speaker 5: percent since October. So pretty much over any window where
Speaker 5: you measure the strength of the trend, you're seeing a
Speaker 5: pretty strong signal that we're going straight to the moon.
Speaker 5: And so I think that's where you know, I'm surprised
Speaker 5: at how incredibly resilient this market has been. If you
Speaker 5: told me in January that February is going to be
Speaker 5: as amazing as it was, I would have not believed you.
Speaker 5: I don't know about you, guys, but it's it's pretty
Speaker 5: incredible the strength that we see in terms of trend
Speaker 5: signals at this point in equities.
Speaker 4: I got to ask you that.
Speaker 1: Oh I.
Speaker 4: Was on it wasn't Smith.
Speaker 3: That's it. I'm done. You're not here tomorrow, Katie.
Speaker 4: I got to ask you about for an exchange volatility here,
Speaker 4: I'm talking AUC dollar ball, Euro dollar ball, and the
Speaker 4: Stirling ball. I mean, we're talking lows to twenty twenty
Speaker 4: one lows right now, you know so. I mean yesterday
Speaker 4: we had people on here talking picking up pennies in
Speaker 4: front of a steamroll or tom I know you know
Speaker 4: what I'm talking about here, But talk to me about
Speaker 4: shorting ball and an environment like this, I mean, is
Speaker 4: that the right player? Should? You know? Investors be looking
Speaker 4: for opportunities to get long volatility, especially in lieu of
Speaker 4: some of the data releases we're seeing over the next
Speaker 4: few weeks.
Speaker 5: So looking at currencies, the weakest signals that we're seeing
Speaker 5: is in the currency sector, and there's a few exceptions,
Speaker 5: obviously the end is but if you look at currencies,
Speaker 5: they really have been consolidating a lot, and there's not
Speaker 5: been a clear picture because there's this wait and see
Speaker 5: narrative to see what policy is going to do. So
Speaker 5: when you look at the technical sign they've really rained in,
Speaker 5: there's very little direction and there's not a lot of
Speaker 5: P and L in that direction either, so there's just
Speaker 5: not a lot of movement. So it's not maybe the
Speaker 5: place to be looking yet unless you have a really
Speaker 5: strong view.
Speaker 4: Okay, I think you're about a big direction. You make
Speaker 4: a great point. You're making the point I think. I
Speaker 4: think that FX fall is following rateball, and that rate
Speaker 4: ball is the center of the universe. Now I don't
Speaker 4: know if that's true. I mean, is equity of all
Speaker 4: the center of the universe. I mean, I've been trained,
Speaker 4: you know, in my career to think, you know, it's
Speaker 4: the VIX. It's all about the VIX and everything m
Speaker 4: andate's from the VIX. But you know, is it rate ball?
Speaker 4: Is it policy that's going to drive you know, markets
Speaker 4: over the next few weeks.
Speaker 5: So I love this question because we've seen some very
Speaker 5: different dynamics in market prices since twenty twenty two, and
Speaker 5: the number one most important difference you're seeing is that
Speaker 5: ratefall and fixed income ball is still elevated, while currency
Speaker 5: ball has actually been dropping significantly. So you're seeing this
Speaker 5: dichotomy of there's a lot of volatility in fixed income
Speaker 5: and the stockbonk correlation is high, so AKA inflation matters right?
Speaker 2: Good morning, YouTube and out on YouTube search Bloomberg Podcast.
Speaker 2: Peter from Chapel Hill, Thank you so much for listening.
Speaker 2: First time I ever met Peter. He set of moving averages.
Speaker 2: What a bount of hot air. I use Klimman moving
Speaker 2: averages from the legendary George Climban at marilynch a million
Speaker 2: years ago, or run an exponential How do you use
Speaker 2: moving averages is I look at the financial media misusing
Speaker 2: them every day.
Speaker 5: So what's exciting about trend falling systems is their goal
Speaker 5: is really to measure where market is moving. So using
Speaker 5: classic tools like moving averages can actually be a very
Speaker 5: simple way to understand the direction of markets, particularly when
Speaker 5: markets are moving in directions that people don't like. So
Speaker 5: that's when trend works the best is when a simple
Speaker 5: strategy of making decisions based.
Speaker 3: On how many moving averages you use.
Speaker 2: I use three off climate as well. I use two
Speaker 2: nine and two nine and thirty I think is what no?
Speaker 2: Two eleven and thirty.
Speaker 5: So we use many, many different types of strategies for
Speaker 5: trading trend One of which that you could use is
Speaker 5: moving average, and we tend to use a wide range well,
Speaker 5: we'll tend to use a wide range of depending.
Speaker 4: On how look back windows. Tom, it's all about look
Speaker 4: back windows.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it is no.
Speaker 2: And then on the Bloomberg terminal, folks, there's a phenomenal
Speaker 2: look back test function, Damian.
Speaker 3: One more questionnaire is a delightful.
Speaker 4: I want to talk about the distribution of probabilities around
Speaker 4: the d sois figure right? I mean what I've been
Speaker 4: told is okay, fine. You know, the markets are pricing
Speaker 4: in you know, three cuts in an eighty percent or
Speaker 4: fifty percent probability of a fourth, but the dispersion around
Speaker 4: what might actually happen, it could be as much as
Speaker 4: five cuts. It could be a hike. You know, talk
Speaker 4: to us a little bit about how you how you
Speaker 4: how that factors into your equation and it's your models.
Speaker 5: So what I think is interesting about being a trend
Speaker 5: follower is we do what the market is doing, not
Speaker 5: what the market should do. And if you ask me
Speaker 5: what the market should do and what we as trend
Speaker 5: followers are concerned about, it's that inflation doesn't go down
Speaker 5: as quickly as people like, because there's a lot of
Speaker 5: hope in financial markets. There's hope that we're gonna have cuts,
Speaker 5: there's wishes. But unfortunately hope isn't a.
Speaker 2: Strategy and it's gonna get solved because Carl Gus is
Speaker 2: going to take over as head of the Boston Fed
Speaker 2: and then you'll get your you know, one over square
Speaker 2: to two pie and all that, you'll get your probability distribution.
Speaker 4: You know, I wish we had more time with Katie.
Speaker 4: I want to ask her about com I want to
Speaker 4: you know, if you're building, you know, trend following book
Speaker 4: is going to be Commandie's gonna be I mean cocoa beans.
Speaker 3: I'm not Steve Roach. I mean Kiminsky walks on water.
Speaker 3: But I'm my good friend Steve Roach. I'm not cancled.
Speaker 3: Can you come back again? Sure?
Speaker 2: It's a long tread from from Boston.
Speaker 4: Boston.
Speaker 3: What do you What do you think of Spring training?
Speaker 3: You know they got any chance.
Speaker 5: Unfortunately I've been watching more of the Ruins and the
Speaker 5: Celtics whose yeah, you.
Speaker 4: Know, they's a boring way.
Speaker 3: Just Kiminski, thank you so much. With Alpha Simplex. This
Speaker 3: is a great pleasure.
Speaker 2: Is I mentioned this with Ellen Zenner of Morgan Stanley.
Speaker 2: When they're young and they're desperate. They write these really
Speaker 2: intelligent economic notes and they have a wheelhouse. You got
Speaker 2: to have an angle to get read. You know, you
Speaker 2: know this, Damien, You've lived it. Ellen Zenner owned the consumer.
Speaker 2: Tom Percelly owned wage growth. He just owned the study
Speaker 2: of what our wages our benefits. You're doing with PGM
Speaker 2: right now joining us, Thomas Percelli, Tom, what have you.
Speaker 3: Learned about our wage growth? Is it ebbing away? Well?
Speaker 6: Good to be with you, Good to be and Damien,
Speaker 6: love that you're sitting there with Tom.
Speaker 3: We'll go there.
Speaker 6: We'll have to talk about that as we're playing golf
Speaker 6: one day.
Speaker 3: Yeah.
Speaker 6: Look, I think that you know, wages, I think are
Speaker 6: going to really take the lead from quits and the
Speaker 6: quit rate it continues to drift lower. That that is
Speaker 6: the reality. I mean, it's it's one of the relationships
Speaker 6: that works incredibly well. And what we know is that
Speaker 6: the quit rate is now below where it was pre COVID,
Speaker 6: and you know, the trend doesn't look very friendly. So
Speaker 6: I think it's very easy to say that the direction
Speaker 6: of travel from a wage perspective is lower from here.
Speaker 4: You know, Tom, I want to ask you about retail
Speaker 4: sales and PP I want to ask you about the
Speaker 4: Dots next week. But before I do any of that,
Speaker 4: I need to ask you about fifty five Locust Avenue,
Speaker 4: Tamarack Country Club in Greenwich, Connecticut. The second hole. They
Speaker 4: pushed the trap back on the left side of the fairway.
Speaker 4: For you long hitters out there, this is going to
Speaker 4: be a big problem. Tom. How are you going to
Speaker 4: approach the second hole of Tamarack this season?
Speaker 3: It's going to make it easier for me.
Speaker 6: I'm I'm not nearly as talented a golfer as you, Damien,
Speaker 6: So to me, that's the pleasant No.
Speaker 4: But seriously, let's talk about next week. Let's talk about
Speaker 4: the FED, let's talk about the Dots. What are your
Speaker 4: expectations there? Is that going to be a market mover?
Speaker 1: Yeah?
Speaker 6: I mean, look, I think pl the spoke, so I
Speaker 6: think it's really hard to make the case that he's
Speaker 6: going to say anything that's sort of, you know, very
Speaker 6: different than what he just said last week. And I
Speaker 6: think you know, the idea of getting closer right that,
Speaker 6: you know, getting closer to cutting that, to me, is.
Speaker 3: We agree with that?
Speaker 6: I mean, we've been on that page for quite some time,
Speaker 6: you know, we've been sort of midyear cut would would
Speaker 6: be ushered in and then we'd see a couple more thereafter.
Speaker 6: So everything that's sort of unfolded thus far has been
Speaker 6: pretty consistent with with our with our broad view. I think,
Speaker 6: you know, if there's anything that I'm wondering about as
Speaker 6: it relates to the dots, it's it's the long run dot.
Speaker 6: I mean, I think that this is probably a very
Speaker 6: big conversation that's happening with within the FED. I think
Speaker 6: most people would agree that two and a half percent
Speaker 6: is not the right not the right median for that,
Speaker 6: it's probably holding a three handle. In fact, I would
Speaker 6: say it's easily holding a three handle. I think it's
Speaker 6: just a question of when does it turn. If you
Speaker 6: look at the average of the top five dots and
Speaker 6: the average of the of the bottom five dots, they're
Speaker 6: they're all turning up. The averages are so it's just
Speaker 6: a it's just a question of time that before the
Speaker 6: median finally shifts.
Speaker 2: And what's important is Okill did a great job of
Speaker 2: extending the course off of the original architecture. You take
Speaker 2: Tamarack back to nineteen twenty nine.
Speaker 3: Have they been successful? Damien had taken Tamarack to a
Speaker 3: new long game. Tom, It's Tom Purcelli's game.
Speaker 4: Tom Porcelli. You know, Tom King made a mistake there.
Speaker 4: He looked at it. He looked up online. Nineteen twenty
Speaker 4: nine is no longer the funding year for Tamarack. They
Speaker 4: just changed that, I believe, right, So I'm not sure
Speaker 4: what the real year is. But we've gone back in
Speaker 4: the annals of Greenwich history to really find out the
Speaker 4: legacy of Tamarck. But no, seriously, and all the I mean,
Speaker 4: Tom makes fun of me all the time when we
Speaker 4: talk about auctions, we talk about treasury supply. How focused
Speaker 4: are you on today's thirty or in auction? I mean,
Speaker 4: is there anything any anything there?
Speaker 1: No?
Speaker 6: I mean, look, I think I think they matter. The
Speaker 6: auctions matter in the context of people wondering, well, look
Speaker 6: we have all these big deficits that have to be
Speaker 6: paid for. You know, at what point do investors back away?
Speaker 6: And you know, our view has been but they're not
Speaker 6: back away, you know, And I think each auction, you know,
Speaker 6: shows that, yeah, you can have these tails here and there,
Speaker 6: but I think you know.
Speaker 3: At at large.
Speaker 6: I don't know that if you're the world's reserve currency.
Speaker 6: I think it's very difficult for people to back off
Speaker 6: in mass, and I think, you know, each auction sort
Speaker 6: of drives that point home.
Speaker 4: So last question, I mean, where are you just in
Speaker 4: terms of the number of cuts through the end of
Speaker 4: this year? I mean, are you along with the FED
Speaker 4: or you're along with consensus. I mean we're talking three
Speaker 4: cuts and what fifty percent probability of another? I mean,
Speaker 4: talk to us a little bit about what Pigeon's thinking
Speaker 4: on this.
Speaker 6: Yeah, Damian, So we've we've been pretty consistent on this
Speaker 6: view that we were going to see three cuts in
Speaker 6: twenty four. This has been our view since last year
Speaker 6: and it remained remains our view. I think the market
Speaker 6: really got ahead of itself when it was looking for
Speaker 6: six cuts this year. I had sympathy for six cuts,
Speaker 6: but spread out over some you know, sort of much
Speaker 6: longer period of time. But I think as it relates
Speaker 6: to the year, you're looking at three cuts and look
Speaker 6: beyond that, I think it's going to be incredibly dependent
Speaker 6: on how the backdrop evolves. You know, I think everyone
Speaker 6: is like piled into the soft landing camp, which again
Speaker 6: is where we've been. But there are risks out there,
Speaker 6: and I think, you know, no one should delude themselves
Speaker 6: into thinking otherwise. So a lot of ground to cover
Speaker 6: between now and you know, twenty five, But I certainly
Speaker 6: think between now and the end of this year, recuts
Speaker 6: is the right call.
Speaker 2: Tim Personally, the great miscall has been a buoyant consumer,
Speaker 2: a better than good GDP. What will retail sales evidence tomorrow?
Speaker 2: What will we get out of the retail sales report?
Speaker 6: Yeah, so the credit card spending DUTA that we look at,
Speaker 6: I suggest that, you know, February was a pretty reasonable
Speaker 6: month from a spending perspective, So I think you get
Speaker 6: a bounce back in February relative to that pretty soft January.
Speaker 6: I think the consumer is on balance in fine shape.
Speaker 1: You know.
Speaker 6: I said wave pressures are going to continue slowing, and
Speaker 6: they will. They're still slowing from a pretty high level.
Speaker 6: I do worry about sort of the balance sheet. I
Speaker 6: do worry about how the consumer is engaging in this
Speaker 6: level of spending. You know, there's a couple of things
Speaker 6: that come through really loud and clear in that regard.
Speaker 6: It's basically being driven by credit usage, and it's being
Speaker 6: driven by cutting even deeper into saving. It's not the
Speaker 6: excess saving thing anymore. That story is long since gone.
Speaker 6: But I would argue that the consumer's now comming into
Speaker 6: saving muscle. Those two things credit and saving usage to
Speaker 6: drive Spain. They can only be sustained for so long
Speaker 6: before you do get into some sort of balance sheet challenges.
Speaker 6: So I think the year will be fine and you
Speaker 6: can bask in the globe. It will be a nice
Speaker 6: twenty four. But I think just note how it's being driven,
Speaker 6: because I don't know that that will have a lot
Speaker 6: of legs into twenty five.
Speaker 2: Quickly, or if the day gig doesn't work out for me.
Speaker 2: Tamurreck is looking for an assistant caddy manager. Can you
Speaker 2: see me like an assistant caddymans.
Speaker 4: We just got a new pro, Mike Ballo. Welcome to
Speaker 4: the club. We're really excited to have you. And by
Speaker 4: the way, I mean for those of you that are
Speaker 4: looking to get around and Tom Pricelly, I mean, this
Speaker 4: man knows how to play. He gets there. I'm sorry,
Speaker 4: Greg Peters, if you're listening. He doesn't play very well,
Speaker 4: he doesn't play very often. He worked really, really hard.
Speaker 4: He's in Newark every single day except on Fridays.
Speaker 2: Tom Vercelli, thank you for the golf listen, greatly appreciate it.
Speaker 3: You did look at the front pages around the world.
Speaker 3: She pulled it all night around the newspapers. Least, let's
Speaker 3: tall you.
Speaker 7: We'll start at the Wall Street Journal. Have you ever
Speaker 7: looked at, I mean, really looked at when you book
Speaker 7: an uber or a lift to the airport, because they're
Speaker 7: saying there are some hidden fees in there if you
Speaker 7: do those advance reservations. So there was a Wall Street
Speaker 7: Journal reporter went out booked a fifty five dollars early
Speaker 7: morning ride to the airport in Phoenix. Nineteen dollars of
Speaker 7: that was a reservation fee, just for booking in advance.
Speaker 7: They also charged over seven dollars for that booking fee,
Speaker 7: another five dollars for the airport search charge, plus the
Speaker 7: twenty three dollars fare, all before the tips. So they're
Speaker 7: telling people just look a little bit closer. Because both
Speaker 7: apps they only display that total price when you're booking
Speaker 7: a reserving ride.
Speaker 3: The basic idea is it's just going up and up
Speaker 3: and up.
Speaker 1: There it is.
Speaker 4: I mean, I mean, I mean, you know, I only
Speaker 4: look at the black suv. I mean I don't even
Speaker 4: go this. I go right to the black suv.
Speaker 2: I mean, for example, to Newark e w R, you
Speaker 2: have to use a the Uber because their taxicab process.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Newark is insane. I mean it's just like long
Speaker 3: lines of incompetence.
Speaker 4: And it's crazy.
Speaker 7: The Uber they can't say, it's just trying to find
Speaker 7: the Uber driver when it shows up to is a
Speaker 7: little bit tougher.
Speaker 2: The middle child says, in La there are Uber drivers
Speaker 2: that only drive to the airport.
Speaker 3: It's so lucre.
Speaker 4: We try to find an Uber dry in Paris, France
Speaker 4: when we go out there, Tom, it's gonna be very difficult.
Speaker 4: I try to before the multiple different levels.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I take the taxis in Paris and religiously in
Speaker 2: London as well.
Speaker 7: Next all right, I was going to go to this
Speaker 7: other story in the New York Times about you know,
Speaker 7: the the trees, but I got to point out this
Speaker 7: Hampton story, and I'm going to do this on the
Speaker 7: fly's audible, that's audible. This was the Bloomberg story. Hampton's
Speaker 7: open houses, they were packed this past weekend. People are
Speaker 7: lining up to go to these. They're saying, the contracts
Speaker 7: new listings are climbing, but the inventory is still tight.
Speaker 7: People are paying, giving all cash offers. It's getting a
Speaker 7: little bit crazy.
Speaker 4: This is great. I love this scrape for my wife.
Speaker 4: It's great for Corey SATs Hour Incorporated. I mean, she's
Speaker 4: a real estate broke up in Westchester. All that low
Speaker 4: hanging fruit is gonna come up to us. We're gonna
Speaker 4: have a great summer in Westchester and up north the same.
Speaker 4: It's the same. It's I mean, the market's back. I
Speaker 4: mean it is gangbusters.
Speaker 3: In my opinion.
Speaker 2: It's a transfer of equity gaines over to more tangible assets.
Speaker 2: I sat with a beverage of my choice, no cigar,
Speaker 2: my choice on Fifth Avenue yesterday and I was thunderstruck
Speaker 2: at all the new automobiles of all different price points.
Speaker 3: I mean, I mean brand new.
Speaker 4: All cash, no contingencies, two million down. I mean, who
Speaker 4: are these animals?
Speaker 3: I mean the video.
Speaker 7: But it's even in New Jersey. I went to open
Speaker 7: houses this a few weekends ago, and there were a
Speaker 7: lot You had to wait, there was a waiting line,
Speaker 7: and then you put in an offer and there's twenty
Speaker 7: other offers. So it's it's a little bit it.
Speaker 3: Is interest rates.
Speaker 2: Imagine the freights come down right right, it's your mortgage, pops,
Speaker 2: four point.
Speaker 4: Wow, coming down?
Speaker 3: Still talk about the rock or something.
Speaker 7: I wish we're talking about Oppenheimer. The payday for Christopher Nolan,
Speaker 7: who was, you know, the director, producer, close to one
Speaker 7: hundred million dollars he could take in Variety. This is
Speaker 7: from Variety Exclusive reporting saying it's a combination of salary,
Speaker 7: his back end conversation, box office escalators, and a bonus
Speaker 7: of course for winning the two Oscars. I mean the
Speaker 7: movie was made on a budget of one hundred million,
Speaker 7: so you can.
Speaker 4: How I heard it earned almost a billion, almost a billion.
Speaker 7: It's at nine hundred and fifty eight million.
Speaker 4: Wow, that's nice.
Speaker 7: So I mean for a three hour movie. You know,
Speaker 7: usually if they.
Speaker 3: Have a courage to do adult cinema anymore.
Speaker 2: I just think it follows over in the next year.
Speaker 3: In the year we're gotta get Lucas shawan on this.
Speaker 2: But yes, I can't say enough folks about Lucasshaw's Sunday
Speaker 2: Note sign up.
Speaker 3: I'll put it out in social sign up.
Speaker 2: For Lucas Shaw's Hollywood Media Bloomberg note. It is truly priceless,
Speaker 2: really really good. You got anything else, or you want
Speaker 2: to do an audible.
Speaker 7: That was a good audible though here if you don't
Speaker 7: like sharing the armrest with you and the person next
Speaker 7: to you on the flight. Budget carriers they're now starting
Speaker 7: to offer certain perks too. It's called from Frontier. It's
Speaker 7: their upfront pass. You can upgrade for fifty dollars. You
Speaker 7: get an empty middle seat, so that's the thing. You
Speaker 7: get a little extra leg room, seats right in the
Speaker 7: front of the plane. You get that benefit to be
Speaker 7: the first to kind of get that in flight er.
Speaker 3: That's called business class, right.
Speaker 7: But these are budget airlines are starting to do it now.
Speaker 4: So that's a difference.
Speaker 3: Receipts and the one in the middle is.
Speaker 4: So that means that you guys are paying fifty dollars.
Speaker 4: It's one hundred dollars a seat. I mean that means
Speaker 4: that seats only one hundred dollars.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm paying twelve hundred dollars to get a Zurich
Speaker 2: American Science to.
Speaker 3: Do the same thing. I'm getting a.
Speaker 4: Lot of the doors don't fly off the oh please, yeah,
Speaker 4: there's that.
Speaker 3: I mean, Boeing is serious. We're gonna get some airline
Speaker 3: people on here to talk about the message. Is that
Speaker 3: all you have today that is a notable.
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