1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:15,560 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along 3 00:00:15,600 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from 4 00:00:18,960 --> 00:00:23,160 Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You 5 00:00:23,160 --> 00:00:26,520 Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the 6 00:00:26,520 --> 00:00:31,280 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday 7 00:00:31,280 --> 00:00:34,320 Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global 8 00:00:34,360 --> 00:00:39,000 Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 9 00:00:39,360 --> 00:00:42,920 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, 10 00:00:43,080 --> 00:00:46,800 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. Our team 11 00:00:47,000 --> 00:00:50,640 Speaker 2: is trying to give you wonderful equity analysis of this 12 00:00:50,800 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 2: crazy market. And all I can say is to go 13 00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 2: from Captain Kaminsky of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology to 14 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:00,640 Speaker 2: Amy Wu Silverman Instant. 15 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 3: Is what this is about. 16 00:01:02,080 --> 00:01:08,360 Speaker 2: She's with RBC, this interview, this conversation hugely anticipated, Amy Will, 17 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,959 Speaker 2: I'm gonna cut to the chase. Everyone's telling us there's 18 00:01:12,319 --> 00:01:15,440 Speaker 2: massive options speculation. 19 00:01:15,520 --> 00:01:16,880 Speaker 3: On a daily basis. 20 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,880 Speaker 2: Is that like portfolio insurance in nineteen eighty seven, is 21 00:01:20,920 --> 00:01:21,280 Speaker 2: there a. 22 00:01:21,240 --> 00:01:25,639 Speaker 3: Real risk here because of the option roulette that's going on. 23 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,200 Speaker 1: You know you would think so, Tom, But most of 24 00:01:30,240 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 1: the activity we see in options right now is not 25 00:01:33,959 --> 00:01:38,000 Speaker 1: for insurance. It's to bet on further upside. It's to 26 00:01:38,160 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: perpetuate fomo, it's to beget momentum, and it is not 27 00:01:42,560 --> 00:01:46,560 Speaker 1: for hedging. It is really historically out of whack with 28 00:01:46,600 --> 00:01:49,360 Speaker 1: what we would expect from all that empirical data that 29 00:01:49,720 --> 00:01:50,840 Speaker 1: I looked at Princeton. 30 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:56,000 Speaker 2: This is a special treat Damian Sasawer's wheelhouse. Mister sasawur 31 00:01:56,520 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 2: take over the interview and make it smarter. 32 00:01:58,440 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 4: Well, Amy, I'm gonna try and throw you ball here 33 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:02,240 Speaker 4: because you know, I'm an emerging market guy, but an 34 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 4: emerging market fixed income guy. So I'm going to look 35 00:02:04,160 --> 00:02:06,080 Speaker 4: at emerging market equities here. I'm going to look at 36 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:08,960 Speaker 4: that big MSCI E M E T F run by 37 00:02:08,960 --> 00:02:10,440 Speaker 4: black Rock, and I'm going to look at the skew, 38 00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:12,840 Speaker 4: all the call buying, all the bullish call buying that's 39 00:02:12,880 --> 00:02:15,160 Speaker 4: been going on. I mean, should we look through that 40 00:02:15,320 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 4: and see that as a signal that perhaps, you know, 41 00:02:18,600 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 4: em equities are going to go up from here? I mean, 42 00:02:20,520 --> 00:02:22,360 Speaker 4: what do you how do you look at skew? How 43 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 4: do you look at the options markets on some of 44 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:25,000 Speaker 4: these large ETFs. 45 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,119 Speaker 1: I think that's a really interesting question. I will tell 46 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:31,480 Speaker 1: you I was actually in the UK a few weeks 47 00:02:31,480 --> 00:02:35,560 Speaker 1: ago and I just asked investors that kind of point blank, 48 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,640 Speaker 1: you know, why is this call SKU bid. It's actually 49 00:02:38,720 --> 00:02:42,920 Speaker 1: bid in the other ATF's proxies for China like FXI 50 00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:47,280 Speaker 1: as well. And what we have heard from investors is, 51 00:02:47,919 --> 00:02:50,480 Speaker 1: you know, a few years ago, the trade of the 52 00:02:50,520 --> 00:02:55,160 Speaker 1: moment was China rebound. It did not happen. Folks are 53 00:02:55,200 --> 00:02:57,320 Speaker 1: a little bit worried that it may never happen, but 54 00:02:57,400 --> 00:03:00,080 Speaker 1: the right tail is that it could happen. Yes, so 55 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:02,520 Speaker 1: a lot of this bid is actually a right tail 56 00:03:02,600 --> 00:03:06,040 Speaker 1: hedge to the idea that we have bottomed. So I 57 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:09,080 Speaker 1: will say investors don't think that that is true, but 58 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:11,840 Speaker 1: that's certainly they're worried and they're not positioned for it yet. 59 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:13,840 Speaker 4: I mean, I just have to cut you to our audience. 60 00:03:13,919 --> 00:03:16,760 Speaker 4: You know how valuable that information is the fact that basically, 61 00:03:16,760 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 4: I mean the China rebound trade, which you know people 62 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:20,880 Speaker 4: of poo pood now, I mean it's gone, it's forever gone, 63 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:23,040 Speaker 4: it's never going to come back. Just to play for 64 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:24,959 Speaker 4: that tail risk, I mean, makes a lot of sense, 65 00:03:25,000 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 4: and to do it with voll at these levels, I mean, Amy, 66 00:03:27,120 --> 00:03:29,560 Speaker 4: I agree completely. But you know, we were talking a 67 00:03:29,560 --> 00:03:32,440 Speaker 4: little bit earlier about which volatility market we should be 68 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:34,960 Speaker 4: most focused on. Is it equity ball, is it ratefall, 69 00:03:35,200 --> 00:03:36,960 Speaker 4: is it fxfall? What do you think? 70 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:40,360 Speaker 1: So of course I'm going to be a little biased 71 00:03:40,360 --> 00:03:43,560 Speaker 1: because I'm an equity wall person. But you know, outside 72 00:03:43,600 --> 00:03:46,440 Speaker 1: of rates ball, all the walls kind of look similar. 73 00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:49,360 Speaker 1: It's not like you're getting anything different other than the 74 00:03:49,440 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 1: rates ball universe. When you think cross asset, I mean, 75 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:56,920 Speaker 1: equity wall, especially on the left tail, is incredibly inexpensive. 76 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:59,080 Speaker 1: So there's only so many times a girl can cry 77 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 1: wolf right. You know, people don't want to hear it. 78 00:04:01,360 --> 00:04:03,320 Speaker 1: They don't want to be positioned where they're far more 79 00:04:03,360 --> 00:04:04,960 Speaker 1: concerned about the reach. 80 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:07,880 Speaker 2: I was smarter in September of nineteen ninety eight than 81 00:04:07,920 --> 00:04:10,480 Speaker 2: it was in July of nineteen ninety eight. And it 82 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:12,440 Speaker 2: had to do with the dreaded l word, Amy wu 83 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:13,720 Speaker 2: Silverman leverage. 84 00:04:14,040 --> 00:04:15,000 Speaker 3: And you know, we didn't know. 85 00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:17,000 Speaker 2: What fifteen to one or twenty two to one until 86 00:04:17,040 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 2: Myron Schulz explained it to us. 87 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:22,080 Speaker 3: What's the shadow right now? In the market. You can't 88 00:04:22,120 --> 00:04:24,000 Speaker 3: tell me this is a free lunch. 89 00:04:24,640 --> 00:04:28,080 Speaker 2: Is it like a blatant leverage, an implied leverage, or 90 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:30,120 Speaker 2: is it some other mystery I can't see. 91 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: So, Tom, I'll tell you the hottest topic to debate 92 00:04:34,520 --> 00:04:38,120 Speaker 1: right now and equities. It's just the idea of all 93 00:04:38,160 --> 00:04:41,919 Speaker 1: the short volatility trades that we're seeing folks selling calls 94 00:04:41,960 --> 00:04:45,800 Speaker 1: from harvesting, you know, volatility risk premium. If this some 95 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 1: way implodes the way we saw from twenty eighteen's Wellmageddon, 96 00:04:50,600 --> 00:04:52,360 Speaker 1: and you know this is going to sound a little 97 00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,120 Speaker 1: party pooper, but we don't think so. Is the short answer. 98 00:04:55,160 --> 00:04:57,360 Speaker 1: The kind of leverage in the system and the kind 99 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:00,279 Speaker 1: of trades that are going on, especially if you include 100 00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:03,560 Speaker 1: that delta from the stock is just dissimilar. It doesn't 101 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:06,159 Speaker 1: mean it cannot end. It's just not going to end 102 00:05:06,400 --> 00:05:09,520 Speaker 1: necessarily in the same way. And I think that most 103 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 1: volatile people would say that that is so just given 104 00:05:12,440 --> 00:05:15,279 Speaker 1: the nature of these traits vall mageddon. 105 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:17,279 Speaker 4: I mean, look, you know, for me, Amy, it's these 106 00:05:17,320 --> 00:05:19,920 Speaker 4: buy right strategies and you know, these ETFs that are 107 00:05:20,000 --> 00:05:22,400 Speaker 4: you know, trying to you know, get investors to you know, 108 00:05:22,560 --> 00:05:24,040 Speaker 4: take advantage of that scream. 109 00:05:24,279 --> 00:05:26,760 Speaker 2: You have to be mortals listening. Okay, please, this is 110 00:05:26,800 --> 00:05:30,360 Speaker 2: a third rail for me. You buy the asset and 111 00:05:30,440 --> 00:05:33,240 Speaker 2: you write the option against it to bring in. 112 00:05:33,160 --> 00:05:37,680 Speaker 4: A further income. That's correct until it works. Continue exactly 113 00:05:37,800 --> 00:05:39,799 Speaker 4: right now. They have ETFs that are supposed to mimic 114 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:41,960 Speaker 4: that type of a strategy. Amy, how convinced are you 115 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:44,720 Speaker 4: that that ETF is going to deliver that type of 116 00:05:44,800 --> 00:05:46,400 Speaker 4: performance at the end of the day. 117 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,760 Speaker 1: So it's interesting in some ways this is like one 118 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 1: of the most bread and butter traits of the derivatives world. 119 00:05:54,400 --> 00:05:56,440 Speaker 1: That's kind of for a market where you don't see 120 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:59,960 Speaker 1: substantial upside, that's another way to get a little yielded 121 00:06:00,120 --> 00:06:02,640 Speaker 1: a world where rates don't give you that much yield. 122 00:06:02,720 --> 00:06:05,000 Speaker 1: What I think is interesting about the success of these 123 00:06:05,040 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 1: products is we actually had a relatively high rate yield environment, 124 00:06:08,560 --> 00:06:11,360 Speaker 1: especially compared to history, and then we've obviously had a 125 00:06:11,400 --> 00:06:14,800 Speaker 1: market with certain stocks have absolutely ripped. So it works 126 00:06:14,800 --> 00:06:17,440 Speaker 1: for some things, it doesn't necessarily work for others. It 127 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: really depends on your underlier, right, it depends where that 128 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:22,640 Speaker 1: delta is coming from. But look, these are actually very 129 00:06:22,680 --> 00:06:24,880 Speaker 1: bread and butter trades where if you have the underlying 130 00:06:24,920 --> 00:06:27,560 Speaker 1: and you get stopped out. It's not really that big 131 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 1: a deal. 132 00:06:27,960 --> 00:06:30,120 Speaker 2: We're to go mathe here right now, folks, stay with me, 133 00:06:30,160 --> 00:06:32,400 Speaker 2: and we're going to do the conceit of a global 134 00:06:32,400 --> 00:06:35,240 Speaker 2: Wall Street audience again with the Amy wou Silverman of 135 00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 2: RBC Capital Markets. Amy, Well, if I haven't implied log 136 00:06:38,960 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 2: normal distribution where I go up on a slope that's 137 00:06:42,839 --> 00:06:46,520 Speaker 2: not as harsh is the slope that I go down, 138 00:06:47,200 --> 00:06:49,400 Speaker 2: And if I have all the different leverage, the bets 139 00:06:49,400 --> 00:06:53,520 Speaker 2: and the setups within the system where we are right now, 140 00:06:53,600 --> 00:06:57,800 Speaker 2: I have parabolic charts, I got a squared function. It's 141 00:06:57,920 --> 00:07:01,960 Speaker 2: incalculable in Nvidia, but particularly in something away from you. 142 00:07:02,080 --> 00:07:06,400 Speaker 2: In bitcoin, do they track a log normal distribution on 143 00:07:06,440 --> 00:07:11,440 Speaker 2: the way down? If Bitcoin goes down, if Nvidia goes down, 144 00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 2: in what way do they go down? 145 00:07:15,280 --> 00:07:17,720 Speaker 1: So look, Tom, this goes back to the what is 146 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:20,560 Speaker 1: it an escalator up and then an elevator down? Right? 147 00:07:21,440 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: And I do think you know, this is part of 148 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:25,440 Speaker 1: the concern. That's part of the concern with what I 149 00:07:25,520 --> 00:07:28,600 Speaker 1: mentioned with these short wall trades. The really interesting thing 150 00:07:28,640 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 1: I would say about bitcoin, because you know, you can't 151 00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,720 Speaker 1: dabble in volatility without dabbling and crypto a little, is 152 00:07:35,160 --> 00:07:38,400 Speaker 1: that this has historically been a risk acid correlation that's 153 00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: actually been positive, even though it's been made out not 154 00:07:41,360 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 1: to be. However, we are actually seeing that correlation decline. 155 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: So if you look three years ago, the correlation between 156 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 1: just the simple equity market and bitcoin was fairly positive 157 00:07:50,760 --> 00:07:53,000 Speaker 1: and it is still positive, to be clear, but it's 158 00:07:53,040 --> 00:07:55,760 Speaker 1: actually come in a lot, and so it may actually 159 00:07:55,840 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 1: begin to be behaving in the inflation head slash, you know, 160 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:03,120 Speaker 1: equity hedge that it was purported to be in the beginning. 161 00:08:03,680 --> 00:08:04,880 Speaker 2: That's a critical sting. 162 00:08:04,960 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 3: And I mean for Global Wall Street, what she just 163 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:09,200 Speaker 3: said is a huge deal. 164 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 4: You know. And now I'm gonna just say ask the 165 00:08:11,200 --> 00:08:13,760 Speaker 4: dumbest question, Amy. I mean, I'm looking at put call 166 00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:17,600 Speaker 4: open interest on Nvidia. I mean, wow, I mean, talk 167 00:08:17,640 --> 00:08:20,920 Speaker 4: to us about what your takeaway is from the options 168 00:08:20,960 --> 00:08:23,720 Speaker 4: market on what is arguably the highest of high flying 169 00:08:23,760 --> 00:08:25,400 Speaker 4: stocks in the US equity market. 170 00:08:27,120 --> 00:08:29,880 Speaker 1: So I'll tell you, I think there's peak fomo when 171 00:08:29,920 --> 00:08:32,960 Speaker 1: derivative strategists sit back and say wish I had an 172 00:08:33,040 --> 00:08:36,400 Speaker 1: Nvidia all that's kind of how I felt after watching 173 00:08:36,440 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: this thing, and watching this thing, Wow, what's interesting is 174 00:08:39,280 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: after the recent selloff and in Nvidia, you know it's 175 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:44,960 Speaker 1: first one after a while, those calls didn't move, so 176 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 1: meaning people weren't worried about the momentum. They went right 177 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,520 Speaker 1: back into it and those call skews are store at 178 00:08:51,000 --> 00:08:55,000 Speaker 1: historic level, still saying incredibly bush things. March eighteenth, there 179 00:08:55,040 --> 00:08:57,080 Speaker 1: is an AI conference with Nvidia that a lot of 180 00:08:57,080 --> 00:08:59,280 Speaker 1: folks that we speak to are looking to play. 181 00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:02,880 Speaker 2: Amy the Epsilon be with you, Emmy was Silverman there, folks. 182 00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:05,520 Speaker 2: That was just a great call that will be feature 183 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:09,360 Speaker 2: today on our single Best Idea podcast. 184 00:09:20,400 --> 00:09:23,160 Speaker 3: All of us checked out a math class. What we 185 00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 3: did Lee Squares. Katie Kaminski kept going, We're thrilled. She 186 00:09:26,720 --> 00:09:29,320 Speaker 3: joins us this morning with Alpha Simplex as well. 187 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:33,439 Speaker 2: It's about trend, Yes, Is this bull market in equities 188 00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:36,560 Speaker 2: trending normal? If you look at your work with Andrew 189 00:09:36,600 --> 00:09:40,000 Speaker 2: Low at MIT back to the great trend followers, I 190 00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,680 Speaker 2: think of Monroe, Trout and others, and quite frankly back 191 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:44,600 Speaker 2: to Gaus, is this a normal market? 192 00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:47,440 Speaker 5: Well, I think that's a great question because if you 193 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:51,640 Speaker 5: look at trend signals across asset classes, equities is one 194 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:55,520 Speaker 5: of the weaker signals in general from a time serious perspective, 195 00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,840 Speaker 5: but right now we're seeing something like we haven't seen 196 00:09:58,880 --> 00:10:02,120 Speaker 5: since twenty seventeen in terms of the strength of those trends. 197 00:10:02,320 --> 00:10:05,520 Speaker 2: When you look at the X axis, do you have 198 00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:08,560 Speaker 2: a conviction and your setups, your trades, your belief in 199 00:10:08,760 --> 00:10:12,079 Speaker 2: how you're going to deploy capital? On the X axis, 200 00:10:12,120 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 2: are you thinking in minutes, days, weeks? 201 00:10:15,320 --> 00:10:17,200 Speaker 3: Do you have the courage to make a bet out 202 00:10:17,200 --> 00:10:18,920 Speaker 3: a month or six months? 203 00:10:19,440 --> 00:10:22,920 Speaker 5: So we generally look at signals across multiple horizons, and 204 00:10:23,160 --> 00:10:25,880 Speaker 5: when you look right now at where equities have moved, 205 00:10:26,360 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 5: the turning point was in October and it's been I mean, 206 00:10:29,720 --> 00:10:32,319 Speaker 5: look at S and P it's up almost twenty five 207 00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:36,040 Speaker 5: percent since October. So pretty much over any window where 208 00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:38,440 Speaker 5: you measure the strength of the trend, you're seeing a 209 00:10:38,480 --> 00:10:41,320 Speaker 5: pretty strong signal that we're going straight to the moon. 210 00:10:42,160 --> 00:10:46,040 Speaker 5: And so I think that's where you know, I'm surprised 211 00:10:46,040 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 5: at how incredibly resilient this market has been. If you 212 00:10:50,400 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 5: told me in January that February is going to be 213 00:10:52,800 --> 00:10:55,400 Speaker 5: as amazing as it was, I would have not believed you. 214 00:10:56,360 --> 00:10:59,920 Speaker 5: I don't know about you, guys, but it's it's pretty 215 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,360 Speaker 5: incredible the strength that we see in terms of trend 216 00:11:02,400 --> 00:11:03,960 Speaker 5: signals at this point in equities. 217 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:05,240 Speaker 4: I got to ask you that. 218 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:06,080 Speaker 1: Oh I. 219 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:08,800 Speaker 4: Was on it wasn't Smith. 220 00:11:08,840 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 3: That's it. I'm done. You're not here tomorrow, Katie. 221 00:11:10,960 --> 00:11:12,760 Speaker 4: I got to ask you about for an exchange volatility here, 222 00:11:12,800 --> 00:11:15,319 Speaker 4: I'm talking AUC dollar ball, Euro dollar ball, and the 223 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 4: Stirling ball. I mean, we're talking lows to twenty twenty 224 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:20,520 Speaker 4: one lows right now, you know so. I mean yesterday 225 00:11:20,520 --> 00:11:22,760 Speaker 4: we had people on here talking picking up pennies in 226 00:11:22,760 --> 00:11:24,360 Speaker 4: front of a steamroll or tom I know you know 227 00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:26,400 Speaker 4: what I'm talking about here, But talk to me about 228 00:11:26,440 --> 00:11:29,080 Speaker 4: shorting ball and an environment like this, I mean, is 229 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,320 Speaker 4: that the right player? Should? You know? Investors be looking 230 00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 4: for opportunities to get long volatility, especially in lieu of 231 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:36,360 Speaker 4: some of the data releases we're seeing over the next 232 00:11:36,440 --> 00:11:37,000 Speaker 4: few weeks. 233 00:11:37,120 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 5: So looking at currencies, the weakest signals that we're seeing 234 00:11:40,480 --> 00:11:43,160 Speaker 5: is in the currency sector, and there's a few exceptions, 235 00:11:43,160 --> 00:11:49,959 Speaker 5: obviously the end is but if you look at currencies, 236 00:11:50,120 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 5: they really have been consolidating a lot, and there's not 237 00:11:53,040 --> 00:11:55,680 Speaker 5: been a clear picture because there's this wait and see 238 00:11:55,760 --> 00:11:58,360 Speaker 5: narrative to see what policy is going to do. So 239 00:11:58,400 --> 00:12:01,560 Speaker 5: when you look at the technical sign they've really rained in, 240 00:12:02,040 --> 00:12:04,320 Speaker 5: there's very little direction and there's not a lot of 241 00:12:04,360 --> 00:12:06,160 Speaker 5: P and L in that direction either, so there's just 242 00:12:06,200 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 5: not a lot of movement. So it's not maybe the 243 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 5: place to be looking yet unless you have a really 244 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 5: strong view. 245 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:13,880 Speaker 4: Okay, I think you're about a big direction. You make 246 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:16,160 Speaker 4: a great point. You're making the point I think. I 247 00:12:16,200 --> 00:12:19,160 Speaker 4: think that FX fall is following rateball, and that rate 248 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:21,240 Speaker 4: ball is the center of the universe. Now I don't 249 00:12:21,240 --> 00:12:23,120 Speaker 4: know if that's true. I mean, is equity of all 250 00:12:23,160 --> 00:12:25,240 Speaker 4: the center of the universe. I mean, I've been trained, 251 00:12:25,600 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 4: you know, in my career to think, you know, it's 252 00:12:27,120 --> 00:12:28,840 Speaker 4: the VIX. It's all about the VIX and everything m 253 00:12:28,840 --> 00:12:30,760 Speaker 4: andate's from the VIX. But you know, is it rate ball? 254 00:12:30,880 --> 00:12:32,840 Speaker 4: Is it policy that's going to drive you know, markets 255 00:12:32,880 --> 00:12:34,000 Speaker 4: over the next few weeks. 256 00:12:34,120 --> 00:12:37,040 Speaker 5: So I love this question because we've seen some very 257 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:41,000 Speaker 5: different dynamics in market prices since twenty twenty two, and 258 00:12:41,040 --> 00:12:43,959 Speaker 5: the number one most important difference you're seeing is that 259 00:12:44,160 --> 00:12:48,200 Speaker 5: ratefall and fixed income ball is still elevated, while currency 260 00:12:48,240 --> 00:12:51,160 Speaker 5: ball has actually been dropping significantly. So you're seeing this 261 00:12:51,280 --> 00:12:54,920 Speaker 5: dichotomy of there's a lot of volatility in fixed income 262 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 5: and the stockbonk correlation is high, so AKA inflation matters right? 263 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:03,000 Speaker 2: Good morning, YouTube and out on YouTube search Bloomberg Podcast. 264 00:13:03,040 --> 00:13:05,800 Speaker 2: Peter from Chapel Hill, Thank you so much for listening. 265 00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:08,200 Speaker 2: First time I ever met Peter. He set of moving averages. 266 00:13:08,240 --> 00:13:11,360 Speaker 2: What a bount of hot air. I use Klimman moving 267 00:13:11,400 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 2: averages from the legendary George Climban at marilynch a million 268 00:13:15,440 --> 00:13:18,480 Speaker 2: years ago, or run an exponential How do you use 269 00:13:18,679 --> 00:13:22,240 Speaker 2: moving averages is I look at the financial media misusing 270 00:13:22,280 --> 00:13:23,440 Speaker 2: them every day. 271 00:13:24,040 --> 00:13:27,600 Speaker 5: So what's exciting about trend falling systems is their goal 272 00:13:27,720 --> 00:13:31,160 Speaker 5: is really to measure where market is moving. So using 273 00:13:31,440 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 5: classic tools like moving averages can actually be a very 274 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 5: simple way to understand the direction of markets, particularly when 275 00:13:39,240 --> 00:13:43,000 Speaker 5: markets are moving in directions that people don't like. So 276 00:13:43,320 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 5: that's when trend works the best is when a simple 277 00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 5: strategy of making decisions based. 278 00:13:49,000 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 3: On how many moving averages you use. 279 00:13:50,559 --> 00:13:53,560 Speaker 2: I use three off climate as well. I use two 280 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:58,719 Speaker 2: nine and two nine and thirty I think is what no? 281 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:00,640 Speaker 2: Two eleven and thirty. 282 00:14:01,160 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 5: So we use many, many different types of strategies for 283 00:14:05,240 --> 00:14:07,720 Speaker 5: trading trend One of which that you could use is 284 00:14:07,840 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 5: moving average, and we tend to use a wide range well, 285 00:14:12,280 --> 00:14:14,240 Speaker 5: we'll tend to use a wide range of depending. 286 00:14:13,920 --> 00:14:16,079 Speaker 4: On how look back windows. Tom, it's all about look 287 00:14:16,120 --> 00:14:16,800 Speaker 4: back windows. 288 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:17,600 Speaker 3: Yeah, it is no. 289 00:14:17,720 --> 00:14:20,480 Speaker 2: And then on the Bloomberg terminal, folks, there's a phenomenal 290 00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:22,720 Speaker 2: look back test function, Damian. 291 00:14:22,720 --> 00:14:24,760 Speaker 3: One more questionnaire is a delightful. 292 00:14:24,360 --> 00:14:26,680 Speaker 4: I want to talk about the distribution of probabilities around 293 00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:29,560 Speaker 4: the d sois figure right? I mean what I've been 294 00:14:29,600 --> 00:14:31,720 Speaker 4: told is okay, fine. You know, the markets are pricing 295 00:14:31,760 --> 00:14:34,360 Speaker 4: in you know, three cuts in an eighty percent or 296 00:14:34,360 --> 00:14:37,680 Speaker 4: fifty percent probability of a fourth, but the dispersion around 297 00:14:37,760 --> 00:14:40,240 Speaker 4: what might actually happen, it could be as much as 298 00:14:40,280 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 4: five cuts. It could be a hike. You know, talk 299 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 4: to us a little bit about how you how you 300 00:14:44,600 --> 00:14:46,880 Speaker 4: how that factors into your equation and it's your models. 301 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 5: So what I think is interesting about being a trend 302 00:14:49,560 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 5: follower is we do what the market is doing, not 303 00:14:52,400 --> 00:14:56,040 Speaker 5: what the market should do. And if you ask me 304 00:14:56,480 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 5: what the market should do and what we as trend 305 00:14:58,640 --> 00:15:02,120 Speaker 5: followers are concerned about, it's that inflation doesn't go down 306 00:15:02,120 --> 00:15:04,160 Speaker 5: as quickly as people like, because there's a lot of 307 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:07,360 Speaker 5: hope in financial markets. There's hope that we're gonna have cuts, 308 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,520 Speaker 5: there's wishes. But unfortunately hope isn't a. 309 00:15:10,520 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 2: Strategy and it's gonna get solved because Carl Gus is 310 00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:14,880 Speaker 2: going to take over as head of the Boston Fed 311 00:15:15,560 --> 00:15:17,560 Speaker 2: and then you'll get your you know, one over square 312 00:15:17,640 --> 00:15:20,400 Speaker 2: to two pie and all that, you'll get your probability distribution. 313 00:15:20,480 --> 00:15:21,880 Speaker 4: You know, I wish we had more time with Katie. 314 00:15:21,880 --> 00:15:23,320 Speaker 4: I want to ask her about com I want to 315 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 4: you know, if you're building, you know, trend following book 316 00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:28,120 Speaker 4: is going to be Commandie's gonna be I mean cocoa beans. 317 00:15:28,640 --> 00:15:31,960 Speaker 3: I'm not Steve Roach. I mean Kiminsky walks on water. 318 00:15:32,440 --> 00:15:34,640 Speaker 3: But I'm my good friend Steve Roach. I'm not cancled. 319 00:15:34,720 --> 00:15:36,480 Speaker 3: Can you come back again? Sure? 320 00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 2: It's a long tread from from Boston. 321 00:15:38,880 --> 00:15:39,280 Speaker 4: Boston. 322 00:15:39,440 --> 00:15:41,240 Speaker 3: What do you What do you think of Spring training? 323 00:15:41,520 --> 00:15:42,640 Speaker 3: You know they got any chance. 324 00:15:44,360 --> 00:15:47,000 Speaker 5: Unfortunately I've been watching more of the Ruins and the 325 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,000 Speaker 5: Celtics whose yeah, you. 326 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:53,040 Speaker 4: Know, they's a boring way. 327 00:15:53,160 --> 00:16:00,600 Speaker 3: Just Kiminski, thank you so much. With Alpha Simplex. This 328 00:16:00,680 --> 00:16:01,480 Speaker 3: is a great pleasure. 329 00:16:01,840 --> 00:16:05,040 Speaker 2: Is I mentioned this with Ellen Zenner of Morgan Stanley. 330 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:09,440 Speaker 2: When they're young and they're desperate. They write these really 331 00:16:09,480 --> 00:16:13,240 Speaker 2: intelligent economic notes and they have a wheelhouse. You got 332 00:16:13,280 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 2: to have an angle to get read. You know, you 333 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:19,239 Speaker 2: know this, Damien, You've lived it. Ellen Zenner owned the consumer. 334 00:16:19,880 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 2: Tom Percelly owned wage growth. He just owned the study 335 00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:29,040 Speaker 2: of what our wages our benefits. You're doing with PGM 336 00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:31,680 Speaker 2: right now joining us, Thomas Percelli, Tom, what have you. 337 00:16:31,640 --> 00:16:35,160 Speaker 3: Learned about our wage growth? Is it ebbing away? Well? 338 00:16:35,160 --> 00:16:36,800 Speaker 6: Good to be with you, Good to be and Damien, 339 00:16:37,400 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 6: love that you're sitting there with Tom. 340 00:16:39,320 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 3: We'll go there. 341 00:16:41,480 --> 00:16:42,920 Speaker 6: We'll have to talk about that as we're playing golf 342 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:43,280 Speaker 6: one day. 343 00:16:44,280 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 3: Yeah. 344 00:16:44,600 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 6: Look, I think that you know, wages, I think are 345 00:16:48,680 --> 00:16:51,720 Speaker 6: going to really take the lead from quits and the 346 00:16:51,800 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 6: quit rate it continues to drift lower. That that is 347 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,880 Speaker 6: the reality. I mean, it's it's one of the relationships 348 00:16:56,880 --> 00:16:59,800 Speaker 6: that works incredibly well. And what we know is that 349 00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:02,600 Speaker 6: the quit rate is now below where it was pre COVID, 350 00:17:03,120 --> 00:17:06,560 Speaker 6: and you know, the trend doesn't look very friendly. So 351 00:17:07,359 --> 00:17:09,679 Speaker 6: I think it's very easy to say that the direction 352 00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 6: of travel from a wage perspective is lower from here. 353 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 4: You know, Tom, I want to ask you about retail 354 00:17:14,320 --> 00:17:16,760 Speaker 4: sales and PP I want to ask you about the 355 00:17:16,800 --> 00:17:18,639 Speaker 4: Dots next week. But before I do any of that, 356 00:17:18,720 --> 00:17:21,640 Speaker 4: I need to ask you about fifty five Locust Avenue, 357 00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:25,480 Speaker 4: Tamarack Country Club in Greenwich, Connecticut. The second hole. They 358 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,160 Speaker 4: pushed the trap back on the left side of the fairway. 359 00:17:28,440 --> 00:17:30,159 Speaker 4: For you long hitters out there, this is going to 360 00:17:30,160 --> 00:17:32,320 Speaker 4: be a big problem. Tom. How are you going to 361 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:34,479 Speaker 4: approach the second hole of Tamarack this season? 362 00:17:35,480 --> 00:17:36,840 Speaker 3: It's going to make it easier for me. 363 00:17:37,240 --> 00:17:40,159 Speaker 6: I'm I'm not nearly as talented a golfer as you, Damien, 364 00:17:40,240 --> 00:17:44,760 Speaker 6: So to me, that's the pleasant No. 365 00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:47,120 Speaker 4: But seriously, let's talk about next week. Let's talk about 366 00:17:47,119 --> 00:17:48,679 Speaker 4: the FED, let's talk about the Dots. What are your 367 00:17:48,680 --> 00:17:50,520 Speaker 4: expectations there? Is that going to be a market mover? 368 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:51,680 Speaker 1: Yeah? 369 00:17:51,720 --> 00:17:53,840 Speaker 6: I mean, look, I think pl the spoke, so I 370 00:17:53,880 --> 00:17:55,880 Speaker 6: think it's really hard to make the case that he's 371 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 6: going to say anything that's sort of, you know, very 372 00:17:57,520 --> 00:18:00,320 Speaker 6: different than what he just said last week. And I 373 00:18:00,320 --> 00:18:03,760 Speaker 6: think you know, the idea of getting closer right that, 374 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:06,680 Speaker 6: you know, getting closer to cutting that, to me, is. 375 00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:09,080 Speaker 3: We agree with that? 376 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:11,200 Speaker 6: I mean, we've been on that page for quite some time, 377 00:18:11,800 --> 00:18:14,720 Speaker 6: you know, we've been sort of midyear cut would would 378 00:18:14,760 --> 00:18:17,200 Speaker 6: be ushered in and then we'd see a couple more thereafter. 379 00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:19,919 Speaker 6: So everything that's sort of unfolded thus far has been 380 00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,919 Speaker 6: pretty consistent with with our with our broad view. I think, 381 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:27,000 Speaker 6: you know, if there's anything that I'm wondering about as 382 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:29,680 Speaker 6: it relates to the dots, it's it's the long run dot. 383 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:31,840 Speaker 6: I mean, I think that this is probably a very 384 00:18:32,359 --> 00:18:35,359 Speaker 6: big conversation that's happening with within the FED. I think 385 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:37,479 Speaker 6: most people would agree that two and a half percent 386 00:18:37,960 --> 00:18:40,400 Speaker 6: is not the right not the right median for that, 387 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:42,880 Speaker 6: it's probably holding a three handle. In fact, I would 388 00:18:42,880 --> 00:18:45,240 Speaker 6: say it's easily holding a three handle. I think it's 389 00:18:45,280 --> 00:18:47,080 Speaker 6: just a question of when does it turn. If you 390 00:18:47,080 --> 00:18:50,720 Speaker 6: look at the average of the top five dots and 391 00:18:50,760 --> 00:18:53,400 Speaker 6: the average of the of the bottom five dots, they're 392 00:18:53,440 --> 00:18:56,919 Speaker 6: they're all turning up. The averages are so it's just 393 00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:58,760 Speaker 6: a it's just a question of time that before the 394 00:18:58,800 --> 00:18:59,919 Speaker 6: median finally shifts. 395 00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,399 Speaker 2: And what's important is Okill did a great job of 396 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:06,160 Speaker 2: extending the course off of the original architecture. You take 397 00:19:06,240 --> 00:19:08,440 Speaker 2: Tamarack back to nineteen twenty nine. 398 00:19:08,800 --> 00:19:12,879 Speaker 3: Have they been successful? Damien had taken Tamarack to a 399 00:19:12,920 --> 00:19:16,080 Speaker 3: new long game. Tom, It's Tom Purcelli's game. 400 00:19:16,080 --> 00:19:18,520 Speaker 4: Tom Porcelli. You know, Tom King made a mistake there. 401 00:19:18,560 --> 00:19:20,520 Speaker 4: He looked at it. He looked up online. Nineteen twenty 402 00:19:20,600 --> 00:19:23,160 Speaker 4: nine is no longer the funding year for Tamarack. They 403 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:25,680 Speaker 4: just changed that, I believe, right, So I'm not sure 404 00:19:25,680 --> 00:19:27,639 Speaker 4: what the real year is. But we've gone back in 405 00:19:27,720 --> 00:19:30,560 Speaker 4: the annals of Greenwich history to really find out the 406 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:32,960 Speaker 4: legacy of Tamarck. But no, seriously, and all the I mean, 407 00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:34,720 Speaker 4: Tom makes fun of me all the time when we 408 00:19:34,760 --> 00:19:37,600 Speaker 4: talk about auctions, we talk about treasury supply. How focused 409 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,480 Speaker 4: are you on today's thirty or in auction? I mean, 410 00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:42,639 Speaker 4: is there anything any anything there? 411 00:19:43,400 --> 00:19:43,480 Speaker 1: No? 412 00:19:43,600 --> 00:19:46,119 Speaker 6: I mean, look, I think I think they matter. The 413 00:19:46,160 --> 00:19:49,160 Speaker 6: auctions matter in the context of people wondering, well, look 414 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,399 Speaker 6: we have all these big deficits that have to be 415 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:55,359 Speaker 6: paid for. You know, at what point do investors back away? 416 00:19:56,200 --> 00:19:58,439 Speaker 6: And you know, our view has been but they're not 417 00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,679 Speaker 6: back away, you know, And I think each auction, you know, 418 00:20:01,840 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 6: shows that, yeah, you can have these tails here and there, 419 00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:05,280 Speaker 6: but I think you know. 420 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:07,040 Speaker 3: At at large. 421 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:10,640 Speaker 6: I don't know that if you're the world's reserve currency. 422 00:20:10,720 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 6: I think it's very difficult for people to back off 423 00:20:14,400 --> 00:20:17,800 Speaker 6: in mass, and I think, you know, each auction sort 424 00:20:17,800 --> 00:20:18,880 Speaker 6: of drives that point home. 425 00:20:19,760 --> 00:20:21,600 Speaker 4: So last question, I mean, where are you just in 426 00:20:21,720 --> 00:20:24,919 Speaker 4: terms of the number of cuts through the end of 427 00:20:24,920 --> 00:20:27,120 Speaker 4: this year? I mean, are you along with the FED 428 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 4: or you're along with consensus. I mean we're talking three 429 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,400 Speaker 4: cuts and what fifty percent probability of another? I mean, 430 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:34,600 Speaker 4: talk to us a little bit about what Pigeon's thinking 431 00:20:34,600 --> 00:20:34,960 Speaker 4: on this. 432 00:20:35,560 --> 00:20:37,760 Speaker 6: Yeah, Damian, So we've we've been pretty consistent on this 433 00:20:37,880 --> 00:20:40,359 Speaker 6: view that we were going to see three cuts in 434 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:43,160 Speaker 6: twenty four. This has been our view since last year 435 00:20:43,800 --> 00:20:46,119 Speaker 6: and it remained remains our view. I think the market 436 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,040 Speaker 6: really got ahead of itself when it was looking for 437 00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:50,679 Speaker 6: six cuts this year. I had sympathy for six cuts, 438 00:20:50,840 --> 00:20:52,680 Speaker 6: but spread out over some you know, sort of much 439 00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:55,600 Speaker 6: longer period of time. But I think as it relates 440 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,840 Speaker 6: to the year, you're looking at three cuts and look 441 00:20:57,920 --> 00:21:00,840 Speaker 6: beyond that, I think it's going to be incredibly dependent 442 00:21:00,880 --> 00:21:03,119 Speaker 6: on how the backdrop evolves. You know, I think everyone 443 00:21:03,200 --> 00:21:06,160 Speaker 6: is like piled into the soft landing camp, which again 444 00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:09,400 Speaker 6: is where we've been. But there are risks out there, 445 00:21:09,440 --> 00:21:11,200 Speaker 6: and I think, you know, no one should delude themselves 446 00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,840 Speaker 6: into thinking otherwise. So a lot of ground to cover 447 00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:16,919 Speaker 6: between now and you know, twenty five, But I certainly 448 00:21:16,960 --> 00:21:19,320 Speaker 6: think between now and the end of this year, recuts 449 00:21:19,440 --> 00:21:20,399 Speaker 6: is the right call. 450 00:21:20,440 --> 00:21:24,359 Speaker 2: Tim Personally, the great miscall has been a buoyant consumer, 451 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:29,920 Speaker 2: a better than good GDP. What will retail sales evidence tomorrow? 452 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,880 Speaker 2: What will we get out of the retail sales report? 453 00:21:33,600 --> 00:21:36,240 Speaker 6: Yeah, so the credit card spending DUTA that we look at, 454 00:21:36,280 --> 00:21:39,000 Speaker 6: I suggest that, you know, February was a pretty reasonable 455 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:41,080 Speaker 6: month from a spending perspective, So I think you get 456 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:45,919 Speaker 6: a bounce back in February relative to that pretty soft January. 457 00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:48,800 Speaker 6: I think the consumer is on balance in fine shape. 458 00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 1: You know. 459 00:21:50,160 --> 00:21:52,960 Speaker 6: I said wave pressures are going to continue slowing, and 460 00:21:53,000 --> 00:21:56,159 Speaker 6: they will. They're still slowing from a pretty high level. 461 00:21:56,400 --> 00:21:58,199 Speaker 6: I do worry about sort of the balance sheet. I 462 00:21:58,200 --> 00:22:01,639 Speaker 6: do worry about how the consumer is engaging in this 463 00:22:01,720 --> 00:22:04,000 Speaker 6: level of spending. You know, there's a couple of things 464 00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:05,959 Speaker 6: that come through really loud and clear in that regard. 465 00:22:06,320 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 6: It's basically being driven by credit usage, and it's being 466 00:22:09,600 --> 00:22:13,919 Speaker 6: driven by cutting even deeper into saving. It's not the 467 00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:17,080 Speaker 6: excess saving thing anymore. That story is long since gone. 468 00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:19,560 Speaker 6: But I would argue that the consumer's now comming into 469 00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:23,480 Speaker 6: saving muscle. Those two things credit and saving usage to 470 00:22:23,640 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 6: drive Spain. They can only be sustained for so long 471 00:22:26,560 --> 00:22:29,480 Speaker 6: before you do get into some sort of balance sheet challenges. 472 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:31,399 Speaker 6: So I think the year will be fine and you 473 00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:33,160 Speaker 6: can bask in the globe. It will be a nice 474 00:22:33,160 --> 00:22:36,240 Speaker 6: twenty four. But I think just note how it's being driven, 475 00:22:36,920 --> 00:22:38,439 Speaker 6: because I don't know that that will have a lot 476 00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:39,840 Speaker 6: of legs into twenty five. 477 00:22:39,840 --> 00:22:42,000 Speaker 2: Quickly, or if the day gig doesn't work out for me. 478 00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:45,879 Speaker 2: Tamurreck is looking for an assistant caddy manager. Can you 479 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:47,480 Speaker 2: see me like an assistant caddymans. 480 00:22:47,560 --> 00:22:49,639 Speaker 4: We just got a new pro, Mike Ballo. Welcome to 481 00:22:49,640 --> 00:22:51,719 Speaker 4: the club. We're really excited to have you. And by 482 00:22:51,760 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 4: the way, I mean for those of you that are 483 00:22:53,400 --> 00:22:56,080 Speaker 4: looking to get around and Tom Pricelly, I mean, this 484 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:58,440 Speaker 4: man knows how to play. He gets there. I'm sorry, 485 00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,160 Speaker 4: Greg Peters, if you're listening. He doesn't play very well, 486 00:23:01,160 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 4: he doesn't play very often. He worked really, really hard. 487 00:23:03,400 --> 00:23:06,719 Speaker 4: He's in Newark every single day except on Fridays. 488 00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:10,440 Speaker 2: Tom Vercelli, thank you for the golf listen, greatly appreciate it. 489 00:23:20,760 --> 00:23:22,800 Speaker 3: You did look at the front pages around the world. 490 00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:25,080 Speaker 3: She pulled it all night around the newspapers. Least, let's 491 00:23:25,080 --> 00:23:25,280 Speaker 3: tall you. 492 00:23:25,640 --> 00:23:27,880 Speaker 7: We'll start at the Wall Street Journal. Have you ever 493 00:23:28,080 --> 00:23:30,480 Speaker 7: looked at, I mean, really looked at when you book 494 00:23:30,480 --> 00:23:32,520 Speaker 7: an uber or a lift to the airport, because they're 495 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,280 Speaker 7: saying there are some hidden fees in there if you 496 00:23:35,359 --> 00:23:38,400 Speaker 7: do those advance reservations. So there was a Wall Street 497 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:41,160 Speaker 7: Journal reporter went out booked a fifty five dollars early 498 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:44,080 Speaker 7: morning ride to the airport in Phoenix. Nineteen dollars of 499 00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:46,840 Speaker 7: that was a reservation fee, just for booking in advance. 500 00:23:46,920 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 7: They also charged over seven dollars for that booking fee, 501 00:23:50,640 --> 00:23:54,240 Speaker 7: another five dollars for the airport search charge, plus the 502 00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:58,080 Speaker 7: twenty three dollars fare, all before the tips. So they're 503 00:23:58,119 --> 00:24:00,480 Speaker 7: telling people just look a little bit closer. Because both 504 00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,520 Speaker 7: apps they only display that total price when you're booking 505 00:24:03,560 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 7: a reserving ride. 506 00:24:04,560 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 3: The basic idea is it's just going up and up 507 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:06,600 Speaker 3: and up. 508 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:07,040 Speaker 1: There it is. 509 00:24:07,160 --> 00:24:09,040 Speaker 4: I mean, I mean, I mean, you know, I only 510 00:24:09,040 --> 00:24:10,840 Speaker 4: look at the black suv. I mean I don't even 511 00:24:11,080 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 4: go this. I go right to the black suv. 512 00:24:14,760 --> 00:24:19,159 Speaker 2: I mean, for example, to Newark e w R, you 513 00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:23,120 Speaker 2: have to use a the Uber because their taxicab process. 514 00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:26,800 Speaker 3: Yeah, Newark is insane. I mean it's just like long 515 00:24:26,960 --> 00:24:29,000 Speaker 3: lines of incompetence. 516 00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:29,199 Speaker 4: And it's crazy. 517 00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,040 Speaker 7: The Uber they can't say, it's just trying to find 518 00:24:32,080 --> 00:24:34,320 Speaker 7: the Uber driver when it shows up to is a 519 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 7: little bit tougher. 520 00:24:35,480 --> 00:24:38,000 Speaker 2: The middle child says, in La there are Uber drivers 521 00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:39,520 Speaker 2: that only drive to the airport. 522 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:40,080 Speaker 3: It's so lucre. 523 00:24:40,200 --> 00:24:42,240 Speaker 4: We try to find an Uber dry in Paris, France 524 00:24:42,240 --> 00:24:44,120 Speaker 4: when we go out there, Tom, it's gonna be very difficult. 525 00:24:44,119 --> 00:24:46,879 Speaker 4: I try to before the multiple different levels. 526 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:50,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, I take the taxis in Paris and religiously in 527 00:24:50,240 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 2: London as well. 528 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,679 Speaker 7: Next all right, I was going to go to this 529 00:24:53,760 --> 00:24:55,760 Speaker 7: other story in the New York Times about you know, 530 00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:58,560 Speaker 7: the the trees, but I got to point out this 531 00:24:58,600 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 7: Hampton story, and I'm going to do this on the 532 00:25:00,080 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 7: fly's audible, that's audible. This was the Bloomberg story. Hampton's 533 00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:09,040 Speaker 7: open houses, they were packed this past weekend. People are 534 00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:11,560 Speaker 7: lining up to go to these. They're saying, the contracts 535 00:25:11,600 --> 00:25:14,359 Speaker 7: new listings are climbing, but the inventory is still tight. 536 00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,119 Speaker 7: People are paying, giving all cash offers. It's getting a 537 00:25:18,160 --> 00:25:18,760 Speaker 7: little bit crazy. 538 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 4: This is great. I love this scrape for my wife. 539 00:25:20,600 --> 00:25:23,040 Speaker 4: It's great for Corey SATs Hour Incorporated. I mean, she's 540 00:25:23,040 --> 00:25:25,160 Speaker 4: a real estate broke up in Westchester. All that low 541 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:26,760 Speaker 4: hanging fruit is gonna come up to us. We're gonna 542 00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:29,840 Speaker 4: have a great summer in Westchester and up north the same. 543 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,199 Speaker 4: It's the same. It's I mean, the market's back. I 544 00:25:32,240 --> 00:25:33,760 Speaker 4: mean it is gangbusters. 545 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:34,680 Speaker 3: In my opinion. 546 00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:40,840 Speaker 2: It's a transfer of equity gaines over to more tangible assets. 547 00:25:41,440 --> 00:25:45,480 Speaker 2: I sat with a beverage of my choice, no cigar, 548 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,760 Speaker 2: my choice on Fifth Avenue yesterday and I was thunderstruck 549 00:25:49,800 --> 00:25:53,080 Speaker 2: at all the new automobiles of all different price points. 550 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:54,960 Speaker 3: I mean, I mean brand new. 551 00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 4: All cash, no contingencies, two million down. I mean, who 552 00:25:59,280 --> 00:26:00,000 Speaker 4: are these animals? 553 00:26:03,359 --> 00:26:04,560 Speaker 3: I mean the video. 554 00:26:04,800 --> 00:26:06,840 Speaker 7: But it's even in New Jersey. I went to open 555 00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,399 Speaker 7: houses this a few weekends ago, and there were a 556 00:26:09,400 --> 00:26:11,680 Speaker 7: lot You had to wait, there was a waiting line, 557 00:26:11,800 --> 00:26:13,480 Speaker 7: and then you put in an offer and there's twenty 558 00:26:13,520 --> 00:26:15,960 Speaker 7: other offers. So it's it's a little bit it. 559 00:26:15,800 --> 00:26:16,520 Speaker 3: Is interest rates. 560 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:20,719 Speaker 2: Imagine the freights come down right right, it's your mortgage, pops, 561 00:26:20,920 --> 00:26:22,200 Speaker 2: four point. 562 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:27,440 Speaker 4: Wow, coming down? 563 00:26:27,760 --> 00:26:30,320 Speaker 3: Still talk about the rock or something. 564 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:37,520 Speaker 7: I wish we're talking about Oppenheimer. The payday for Christopher Nolan, 565 00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 7: who was, you know, the director, producer, close to one 566 00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,000 Speaker 7: hundred million dollars he could take in Variety. This is 567 00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,720 Speaker 7: from Variety Exclusive reporting saying it's a combination of salary, 568 00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:50,600 Speaker 7: his back end conversation, box office escalators, and a bonus 569 00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,960 Speaker 7: of course for winning the two Oscars. I mean the 570 00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:54,879 Speaker 7: movie was made on a budget of one hundred million, 571 00:26:55,040 --> 00:26:55,920 Speaker 7: so you can. 572 00:26:55,760 --> 00:26:58,600 Speaker 4: How I heard it earned almost a billion, almost a billion. 573 00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 7: It's at nine hundred and fifty eight million. 574 00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:01,879 Speaker 4: Wow, that's nice. 575 00:27:02,200 --> 00:27:05,040 Speaker 7: So I mean for a three hour movie. You know, 576 00:27:05,160 --> 00:27:05,880 Speaker 7: usually if they. 577 00:27:05,800 --> 00:27:08,400 Speaker 3: Have a courage to do adult cinema anymore. 578 00:27:08,440 --> 00:27:10,440 Speaker 2: I just think it follows over in the next year. 579 00:27:10,480 --> 00:27:12,359 Speaker 3: In the year we're gotta get Lucas shawan on this. 580 00:27:12,480 --> 00:27:16,320 Speaker 2: But yes, I can't say enough folks about Lucasshaw's Sunday 581 00:27:16,560 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 2: Note sign up. 582 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:19,920 Speaker 3: I'll put it out in social sign up. 583 00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:26,960 Speaker 2: For Lucas Shaw's Hollywood Media Bloomberg note. It is truly priceless, 584 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,080 Speaker 2: really really good. You got anything else, or you want 585 00:27:29,119 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 2: to do an audible. 586 00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,680 Speaker 7: That was a good audible though here if you don't 587 00:27:33,760 --> 00:27:35,719 Speaker 7: like sharing the armrest with you and the person next 588 00:27:35,760 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 7: to you on the flight. Budget carriers they're now starting 589 00:27:38,880 --> 00:27:42,080 Speaker 7: to offer certain perks too. It's called from Frontier. It's 590 00:27:42,119 --> 00:27:45,480 Speaker 7: their upfront pass. You can upgrade for fifty dollars. You 591 00:27:45,480 --> 00:27:47,600 Speaker 7: get an empty middle seat, so that's the thing. You 592 00:27:47,640 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 7: get a little extra leg room, seats right in the 593 00:27:50,200 --> 00:27:52,080 Speaker 7: front of the plane. You get that benefit to be 594 00:27:52,119 --> 00:27:54,000 Speaker 7: the first to kind of get that in flight er. 595 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:56,120 Speaker 3: That's called business class, right. 596 00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:58,560 Speaker 7: But these are budget airlines are starting to do it now. 597 00:27:58,600 --> 00:27:59,680 Speaker 4: So that's a difference. 598 00:28:00,080 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 3: Receipts and the one in the middle is. 599 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,160 Speaker 4: So that means that you guys are paying fifty dollars. 600 00:28:04,280 --> 00:28:06,080 Speaker 4: It's one hundred dollars a seat. I mean that means 601 00:28:06,080 --> 00:28:07,359 Speaker 4: that seats only one hundred dollars. 602 00:28:07,600 --> 00:28:10,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm paying twelve hundred dollars to get a Zurich 603 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,000 Speaker 2: American Science to. 604 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:14,800 Speaker 3: Do the same thing. I'm getting a. 605 00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 4: Lot of the doors don't fly off the oh please, yeah, 606 00:28:17,600 --> 00:28:17,959 Speaker 4: there's that. 607 00:28:18,040 --> 00:28:20,679 Speaker 3: I mean, Boeing is serious. We're gonna get some airline 608 00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:23,000 Speaker 3: people on here to talk about the message. Is that 609 00:28:23,040 --> 00:28:25,480 Speaker 3: all you have today that is a notable. 610 00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,760 Speaker 2: This is a Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best 611 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 2: in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also 612 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:38,640 Speaker 2: watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast 613 00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:42,800 Speaker 2: channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from 614 00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:46,120 Speaker 2: seven to ten am Eastern from our global headquarters in 615 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:49,880 Speaker 2: New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, 616 00:28:50,240 --> 00:28:53,800 Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always on Bloomberg Radio, 617 00:28:54,000 --> 00:28:57,160 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app.