1 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:15,280 Speaker 1: Welcome back to Drilled. I'm Amy Westervelt. Today. I want 2 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:18,680 Speaker 1: to talk about something that has been getting a lot 3 00:00:18,720 --> 00:00:23,640 Speaker 1: of attention lately and is kind of rife with misinformation. 4 00:00:24,680 --> 00:00:28,560 Speaker 1: That is the environmental impact of the electrify Everything movement. 5 00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:32,159 Speaker 1: This is something that a lot of climate folks have 6 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:36,080 Speaker 1: been really hesitant to talk about, or even have been 7 00:00:36,159 --> 00:00:40,680 Speaker 1: kind of defensive about, because they don't want people talking 8 00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:45,680 Speaker 1: as though renewables have the exact same impact as fossil fuels, 9 00:00:46,280 --> 00:00:49,640 Speaker 1: or this idea that they'll be even worse, or that 10 00:00:50,120 --> 00:00:53,800 Speaker 1: they're not an improvement. All of these our talking points 11 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: that several folks on the right are starting to push. 12 00:00:57,520 --> 00:00:58,520 Speaker 1: You've got Ted. 13 00:00:58,400 --> 00:01:04,520 Speaker 2: Cruz ringing hands about child labor in cobalt mines, for example. 14 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:08,480 Speaker 2: You've got a lot of pundits who carry water for 15 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:13,760 Speaker 2: the fossil fuel industry claiming that the land required for 16 00:01:13,880 --> 00:01:18,480 Speaker 2: both mining and installing renewables, the materials required, all of 17 00:01:18,520 --> 00:01:22,119 Speaker 2: that is going to be a bigger environmental problem than 18 00:01:22,240 --> 00:01:23,160 Speaker 2: drilling for oil. 19 00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:30,480 Speaker 1: That is not true. However, there are definitely impacts, and 20 00:01:30,680 --> 00:01:33,959 Speaker 1: one of the key ways that we can minimize those 21 00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:40,679 Speaker 1: impacts is to curb energy consumption across the board. We 22 00:01:40,720 --> 00:01:44,120 Speaker 1: are at this moment right now that's very pivotal, where 23 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:49,440 Speaker 1: the US in particular is trying to plan out an 24 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:54,680 Speaker 1: energy transition, and instead of going, oh, no, electric is great, 25 00:01:54,680 --> 00:01:56,720 Speaker 1: we don't need to think about this stuff, it's actually 26 00:01:56,720 --> 00:02:00,200 Speaker 1: the perfect time to figure out how to minimize the 27 00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 1: environmental impact of our energy system. One way to do 28 00:02:04,760 --> 00:02:08,400 Speaker 1: that is to curb consumption. That is not something that 29 00:02:08,520 --> 00:02:12,040 Speaker 1: any energy company wants to talk about, it's not something 30 00:02:12,120 --> 00:02:15,760 Speaker 1: that most American capitalists want to talk about, but it 31 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 1: is absolutely necessary for systemically addressing the problem of climate change. 32 00:02:23,520 --> 00:02:26,600 Speaker 1: I wrote about this recently in the Intercept, and for 33 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:30,840 Speaker 1: that piece I interviewed a really interesting researcher on this subject, 34 00:02:30,919 --> 00:02:33,760 Speaker 1: the a Rio Francos. She recently put out a report 35 00:02:33,800 --> 00:02:38,120 Speaker 1: for the Climate and Community Project entitled Achieving zero emissions 36 00:02:38,160 --> 00:02:42,640 Speaker 1: with More Mobility and Less Mining. That report concluded that 37 00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:47,360 Speaker 1: even relatively small, pretty easy to achieve shifts in our behavior, 38 00:02:47,600 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 1: like reducing the size of cars and their batteries, could 39 00:02:51,840 --> 00:02:55,640 Speaker 1: deliver big returns a forty two percent reduction in the 40 00:02:55,639 --> 00:02:59,080 Speaker 1: amount of lithium needed in the US, even if the 41 00:02:59,160 --> 00:03:01,600 Speaker 1: number of cars on the road and the frequency with 42 00:03:01,639 --> 00:03:05,720 Speaker 1: which people drive stayed the same. I asked Rio Francos 43 00:03:05,760 --> 00:03:09,079 Speaker 1: to talk me through her report and all of its 44 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:13,880 Speaker 1: very interesting findings, and that conversation is coming up after 45 00:03:13,960 --> 00:03:15,000 Speaker 1: this quick break. 46 00:03:32,560 --> 00:03:35,680 Speaker 3: I am Theoreo Francos, and I'm an associate professor of 47 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,320 Speaker 3: political science at Providence College and also a member of 48 00:03:38,320 --> 00:03:40,280 Speaker 3: the Climate and Community Project. 49 00:03:40,680 --> 00:03:43,000 Speaker 1: Can I have you, And I know this is annoying 50 00:03:43,000 --> 00:03:46,080 Speaker 1: because you just wrote an eighty plus page report on it, 51 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:48,760 Speaker 1: but can I have you just give kind of a 52 00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:54,080 Speaker 1: brief summary of what this report is and kind of 53 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:55,600 Speaker 1: what you're putting forth in it. 54 00:03:55,920 --> 00:03:58,560 Speaker 3: You know, maybe I'll start with like the origins of 55 00:03:58,640 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 3: why we even thought to create this report, because I 56 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:07,200 Speaker 3: think it helps listeners understand what the state of the 57 00:04:07,280 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 3: kind of policy and academic conversation is on these topics 58 00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 3: and what some of the gaps are. So many years ago, 59 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,960 Speaker 3: in early twenty nineteen, when I was first in Chile 60 00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:23,040 Speaker 3: researching the social and environmental impacts of lithium mining there, 61 00:04:23,120 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 3: and Chile is the world's number two producer of lithium, 62 00:04:26,480 --> 00:04:28,719 Speaker 3: and also some of the kind of contentious politics around 63 00:04:28,720 --> 00:04:32,159 Speaker 3: extraction of this mineral, I started to kind of think, 64 00:04:32,400 --> 00:04:35,000 Speaker 3: you know, would it matter in terms of how much 65 00:04:35,080 --> 00:04:39,520 Speaker 3: lithium was needed, how the sort of global energy transition 66 00:04:39,640 --> 00:04:42,720 Speaker 3: is designed, or how the US energy transition is designed. Right, 67 00:04:43,120 --> 00:04:46,719 Speaker 3: are there futures in which less lithium and less of 68 00:04:46,760 --> 00:04:50,159 Speaker 3: these other transition minerals are required than some of the 69 00:04:50,160 --> 00:04:53,000 Speaker 3: most alarming kind of reports and predictions I began to 70 00:04:53,040 --> 00:04:55,480 Speaker 3: see from the International Energy Agency and then the World 71 00:04:55,560 --> 00:04:59,599 Speaker 3: Bank and multiple other forecasting agencies which were and remain 72 00:04:59,640 --> 00:05:01,960 Speaker 3: pretty alarming in terms of how much mining they are 73 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:05,080 Speaker 3: predicting will occur or be demanded. And I started to 74 00:05:05,200 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 3: kind of look for that research. And at the same time, 75 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:10,560 Speaker 3: I was doing a lot of climate advocacy work, a 76 00:05:10,560 --> 00:05:12,680 Speaker 3: lot of Green New Deal organizing, and so I was 77 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,560 Speaker 3: thinking a lot about an urgent and rapid and just 78 00:05:15,720 --> 00:05:18,240 Speaker 3: energy transition in the US. But I was kind of 79 00:05:18,240 --> 00:05:20,280 Speaker 3: thinking about both ends of the supply chain at once, 80 00:05:20,360 --> 00:05:22,520 Speaker 3: Like here I am in Chile and the Atacama Desert 81 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,279 Speaker 3: seeing these mining related harms, and then there I go 82 00:05:25,320 --> 00:05:27,760 Speaker 3: in the US kind of advocating for a rapid transition, 83 00:05:27,960 --> 00:05:31,000 Speaker 3: Like how do I align these two goals? And is 84 00:05:31,040 --> 00:05:33,200 Speaker 3: there a way to kind of have a less extractive 85 00:05:33,320 --> 00:05:36,960 Speaker 3: energy transition? And the answer was that research didn't exist, 86 00:05:37,000 --> 00:05:40,000 Speaker 3: at least not for the US transportation sector. Right, And 87 00:05:40,160 --> 00:05:43,320 Speaker 3: each year that went on up until the present, up 88 00:05:43,360 --> 00:05:46,440 Speaker 3: until the launch of our report, that research still didn't exist. 89 00:05:46,560 --> 00:05:50,680 Speaker 3: I saw forecast after forecast that assumed basically a binary 90 00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:54,240 Speaker 3: of the future. Right, Either we stay with the fossil 91 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 3: fuel status quo and the existential crisis that that is 92 00:05:58,120 --> 00:06:01,000 Speaker 3: causing for the planet and all of its people, or 93 00:06:01,160 --> 00:06:06,040 Speaker 3: we transition to an electrified, renewably powered future. But that 94 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:10,279 Speaker 3: doesn't really change anything about how these sectors or economic 95 00:06:10,320 --> 00:06:13,359 Speaker 3: activities are organized. Right, So it's binary. It's either fossil 96 00:06:13,360 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 3: fuel or kind of electrified version of the status quo, 97 00:06:17,000 --> 00:06:19,239 Speaker 3: and there was very little research sort of in between 98 00:06:19,560 --> 00:06:22,559 Speaker 3: those two or that mapped out or sort of broke down. 99 00:06:22,880 --> 00:06:25,400 Speaker 3: Let's look at the electrified future and say that there 100 00:06:25,400 --> 00:06:28,520 Speaker 3: are multiple ways to design it, with implications for all 101 00:06:28,560 --> 00:06:32,480 Speaker 3: sorts of things, including how quickly advanced towards our climate goals, 102 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 3: including how equitably we do so, and including these kind 103 00:06:35,680 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 3: of supply chain considerations that we also bring to the 104 00:06:38,000 --> 00:06:40,920 Speaker 3: table in this report. So, you know, with that kind 105 00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 3: of frustration, but also that kind of continued curiosity about like, 106 00:06:44,920 --> 00:06:48,000 Speaker 3: is there another path forward that's not currently being modeled. 107 00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,920 Speaker 3: We set out to create that model and kind of 108 00:06:52,000 --> 00:06:57,320 Speaker 3: actually have a data driven analysis of the very different pathways, 109 00:06:57,360 --> 00:06:59,960 Speaker 3: all of which are zero emissions, all of which are electrified, 110 00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:03,640 Speaker 3: all of which are renewably powered, but very tremendously in 111 00:07:03,680 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 3: the specifics in ways that, as I said, have these 112 00:07:06,000 --> 00:07:09,280 Speaker 3: kind of broader implications. And to combine that with more 113 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,080 Speaker 3: qualitative research on the harms of mining, on some of 114 00:07:12,080 --> 00:07:14,560 Speaker 3: the supply chain bottlenecks and constraints that we see on 115 00:07:14,560 --> 00:07:17,520 Speaker 3: the horizon, and to produce something that we hope is 116 00:07:17,600 --> 00:07:21,240 Speaker 3: kind of useful to advocates across the supply chain, you know, 117 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:25,400 Speaker 3: whether it's climate transit, folks that are concerned about mining impacts, 118 00:07:25,480 --> 00:07:28,240 Speaker 3: whatever the issue at stake is. I think that there's 119 00:07:28,240 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 3: a way to align them if we think holistically about 120 00:07:30,960 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 3: the design of the energy transition. 121 00:07:33,440 --> 00:07:37,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, And I think that one of the things 122 00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 1: that really jumped out to me in this report was, 123 00:07:41,000 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 1: you know, again like kind of along the lines of 124 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:45,680 Speaker 1: this binary that you're pointing out. I think people are 125 00:07:45,680 --> 00:07:50,160 Speaker 1: often like, Okay, we can either electrify cars or have 126 00:07:50,240 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: fossil fuel cars, and that's it. You know, there's been 127 00:07:54,800 --> 00:07:59,679 Speaker 1: very little conversation about moving away from car dependency in general, 128 00:07:59,760 --> 00:08:04,640 Speaker 1: and very little policy movement on that front. I feel like, 129 00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: you know, every once in a while, Elon Musk will 130 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:10,240 Speaker 1: like pooh pooh the idea of public transit, and we'll 131 00:08:10,240 --> 00:08:14,040 Speaker 1: get a little bit of like a Twitter dispat going 132 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:16,160 Speaker 1: about it, and like there's I don't know, there just 133 00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:19,600 Speaker 1: hasn't been as much conversation about that as you might 134 00:08:19,680 --> 00:08:24,480 Speaker 1: expect when we're talking about decarbonizing transport. So I'm wondering 135 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:26,680 Speaker 1: if I could have you kind of map out these 136 00:08:26,800 --> 00:08:30,360 Speaker 1: three different or four different scenarios that you in the 137 00:08:30,440 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 1: report and kind of walk people through what would be 138 00:08:34,280 --> 00:08:35,520 Speaker 1: required to. 139 00:08:36,120 --> 00:08:36,719 Speaker 3: Do each of those. 140 00:08:36,960 --> 00:08:39,000 Speaker 1: I was really struck by the fact that, like, even 141 00:08:39,040 --> 00:08:42,960 Speaker 1: if nothing else changes and we just have some policy 142 00:08:42,960 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: around the size of EV batteries, for example, that would 143 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:49,679 Speaker 1: deliver a pretty major reduction in these impacts that you're 144 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:50,439 Speaker 1: talking about. 145 00:08:50,640 --> 00:08:53,160 Speaker 3: So the way that we design our report it is 146 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:55,080 Speaker 3: kind of interesting, and I think again it draws out 147 00:08:55,120 --> 00:08:57,360 Speaker 3: these themes of connecting the dots kind of across the 148 00:08:57,400 --> 00:09:00,320 Speaker 3: supply chain. We first kind of sketch out what are 149 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 3: different possible zero missions transportation futures, Like, if we look 150 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,360 Speaker 3: ahead to the US in twenty fifty and assume that 151 00:09:07,480 --> 00:09:11,800 Speaker 3: our transportation is one hundred percent without carbon emissions, what 152 00:09:11,960 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 3: would that actually concretely look like. And we sketch out 153 00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:19,000 Speaker 3: four different scenarios, again, all of which eliminate emissions, but 154 00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:22,480 Speaker 3: they differ and in some cases pretty dramatically, on a 155 00:09:22,520 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 3: variety of parameters. So the first scenario, as you kind 156 00:09:25,880 --> 00:09:29,160 Speaker 3: of suggested, and as I was hinting at earlier, just 157 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 3: keeps everything the same except electrifize it. Right, So we 158 00:09:33,480 --> 00:09:36,360 Speaker 3: have the same patterns of car usage and car dependency 159 00:09:36,440 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 3: and vehicle ownership. We also have the same kind of 160 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:43,079 Speaker 3: land use patterns of that suburban sprawl that itself incentivizes 161 00:09:43,240 --> 00:09:46,120 Speaker 3: car use or even requires it. And so we change 162 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:51,040 Speaker 3: basically nothing about American society, built environment, infrastructure, but we 163 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:54,280 Speaker 3: swap out ice vehicles for evs, and we do so 164 00:09:54,320 --> 00:09:56,280 Speaker 3: in a growing manner over time, until we get to 165 00:09:56,280 --> 00:10:00,640 Speaker 3: twenty fifty. That scenario one electrified status quo. We have 166 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 3: three others, and what they do is kind of progressively 167 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:07,120 Speaker 3: in a stepwise fashion, add in more changes. Some of 168 00:10:07,160 --> 00:10:10,280 Speaker 3: them are not huge changes, some of them are more dramatic, 169 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:12,839 Speaker 3: and so it gives us a real range and as 170 00:10:12,840 --> 00:10:15,640 Speaker 3: I said, gets into the black box of electrification and 171 00:10:15,720 --> 00:10:17,760 Speaker 3: opens it up and reveals it to be a whole 172 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:21,959 Speaker 3: host of choices. So in scenario two, what we look 173 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:25,160 Speaker 3: at is shifting mode share and that's just a fancy 174 00:10:25,240 --> 00:10:28,360 Speaker 3: technical term for what percentage of people are using what 175 00:10:28,679 --> 00:10:31,320 Speaker 3: types of transportation for their trips. You know, am I 176 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 3: using a bus or am I using a bike? Or 177 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 3: am I you know which mode of transportation? Or am 178 00:10:34,920 --> 00:10:37,520 Speaker 3: I using a car? Right? And so we move people 179 00:10:37,559 --> 00:10:40,440 Speaker 3: so that more of those trips are being taken in 180 00:10:40,760 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 3: non car options. But we still have cars, we still 181 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:45,920 Speaker 3: have evs, but we start to nudge people towards buses 182 00:10:45,960 --> 00:10:47,160 Speaker 3: and cycling and walking. 183 00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 1: Right. 184 00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:52,000 Speaker 3: In the third scenario, we do more of that. So 185 00:10:52,040 --> 00:10:55,680 Speaker 3: we do more of that mode shift towards transit, cycling, 186 00:10:55,920 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 3: and walking. We also densify metropolitan regions. Right. We see 187 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:03,280 Speaker 3: a lot of sprawl in ways that are very out 188 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:05,080 Speaker 3: of line with like the rest of the world. Like 189 00:11:05,160 --> 00:11:07,319 Speaker 3: when we move especially to the edges of a city 190 00:11:07,440 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 3: or to those first string suburbs and then out to 191 00:11:09,480 --> 00:11:12,440 Speaker 3: the excervs, like the distances just get really big, and 192 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:14,280 Speaker 3: we don't even have to go to rural areas to 193 00:11:14,280 --> 00:11:16,920 Speaker 3: see those that sprawl or that distance. And so we 194 00:11:17,120 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 3: densify things a bit so that the distances are shorter, 195 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,440 Speaker 3: and those changes also get accompanied by a decrease in 196 00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,000 Speaker 3: how many people own vehicles, right, so that scenario three 197 00:11:27,400 --> 00:11:31,000 Speaker 3: more of a mode shift, slightly denser metropolitan regions, and 198 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:34,760 Speaker 3: lower levels of car ownership. Scenario four is like our 199 00:11:34,760 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 3: turbocharged in a positive sense scenario, right, our most ambitious one. 200 00:11:38,760 --> 00:11:40,800 Speaker 3: We do all of those things, but more we say, like, 201 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:44,120 Speaker 3: you know, what if we really brought mode shares in 202 00:11:44,240 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 3: line with like the places in the world where folks 203 00:11:46,760 --> 00:11:49,320 Speaker 3: use like the most transit or cycle the most, Right, 204 00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,760 Speaker 3: what if we densify even more, right, or bring vehicle 205 00:11:52,760 --> 00:11:55,679 Speaker 3: ownership rates down even more? And I just want to 206 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,920 Speaker 3: flag that even in scenario four, there are lots of evs, right, 207 00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:01,600 Speaker 3: you know, and I'm aware of, you know, the debates 208 00:12:01,720 --> 00:12:03,760 Speaker 3: around this topic, right, So I just want to flag 209 00:12:03,840 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 3: that we don't actually eliminate electric vehicles in any of 210 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:09,240 Speaker 3: our scenarios. We just play around with getting people to 211 00:12:09,320 --> 00:12:12,760 Speaker 3: take trips through different modes, making those distances shorter and 212 00:12:12,920 --> 00:12:15,520 Speaker 3: discouraging car ownership, which tends to happen when there are 213 00:12:15,559 --> 00:12:19,040 Speaker 3: other modes available and also when the distances are shorter. Right, 214 00:12:19,559 --> 00:12:22,679 Speaker 3: can you talk through what the obstacles to those kinds 215 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 3: of shifts are? You know, what are the things stopping either. 216 00:12:27,240 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 1: The options being made available or people availing themselves of 217 00:12:32,200 --> 00:12:32,920 Speaker 1: those options. 218 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,760 Speaker 3: Right? I might, if you don't mind, just slightly personalize 219 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:41,120 Speaker 3: this because I have experienced this firsthand where I know 220 00:12:41,280 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 3: that in the US, and especially in auto industry advertising 221 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 3: to consumers, cars are very associated with freedom. 222 00:12:48,120 --> 00:12:48,240 Speaker 1: Right. 223 00:12:48,480 --> 00:12:50,480 Speaker 3: You know, this is like the American dream is like 224 00:12:50,559 --> 00:12:54,160 Speaker 3: you drive anywhere everyone owns their own car. But you know, 225 00:12:54,280 --> 00:12:56,760 Speaker 3: for me, when I look at the transportation system and 226 00:12:56,880 --> 00:12:59,280 Speaker 3: also my own interaction with it in my own life, 227 00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:01,800 Speaker 3: I expect he instance is like a lack of choices, 228 00:13:01,880 --> 00:13:04,280 Speaker 3: like a lack of freedom. Right. Like I have lived 229 00:13:04,320 --> 00:13:07,319 Speaker 3: in places where it was not only not required, but 230 00:13:07,400 --> 00:13:09,880 Speaker 3: actually more annoying to have a car than to use 231 00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:12,160 Speaker 3: a bike or bus or a subway or something else. 232 00:13:12,640 --> 00:13:14,439 Speaker 3: And I now live in a place where the opposite 233 00:13:14,520 --> 00:13:16,480 Speaker 3: is true. I live in a city which is Providence, 234 00:13:16,640 --> 00:13:20,520 Speaker 3: Rhode Island. But it's very hard to just live your 235 00:13:20,600 --> 00:13:22,760 Speaker 3: daily life and be a full member of society without 236 00:13:22,760 --> 00:13:25,439 Speaker 3: owning a car. And it's actually the first place where 237 00:13:25,480 --> 00:13:27,480 Speaker 3: I got a driver's license. I think I was thirty 238 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 3: one or thirty two. In other places I lived, as 239 00:13:29,880 --> 00:13:31,839 Speaker 3: I said, in the US and elsewhere in the world, 240 00:13:32,280 --> 00:13:34,000 Speaker 3: it was just not a thing. You didn't have to 241 00:13:34,040 --> 00:13:35,360 Speaker 3: own a car. I grew up in New York City, 242 00:13:35,400 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 3: so I know I'm weird, but I more kind of 243 00:13:37,000 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 3: just want to say that, like I moved to a 244 00:13:39,000 --> 00:13:41,200 Speaker 3: place that, again was an urban environment, and there are 245 00:13:41,280 --> 00:13:43,920 Speaker 3: buses and people, there are some bike lanes a little bit, 246 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:46,640 Speaker 3: but it was impossible for me to commute to work 247 00:13:46,880 --> 00:13:48,720 Speaker 3: and to do the rest of my daily life stuff 248 00:13:48,720 --> 00:13:51,160 Speaker 3: without a car. I had this exact experience. 249 00:13:51,400 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 1: I lived in San Francisco and Oakland forever, and then 250 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:58,680 Speaker 1: I moved to the mountains, and like, there's theoretically a bus, 251 00:13:58,800 --> 00:14:01,480 Speaker 1: but it's like there's like a two hour spectrum of 252 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 1: time when it may or may not come. 253 00:14:04,600 --> 00:14:07,240 Speaker 3: So you know, if you have like a normal. 254 00:14:07,040 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: Job where you have to be anywhere at a particular time, 255 00:14:09,760 --> 00:14:11,360 Speaker 1: that's not going to work for you. 256 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:16,440 Speaker 3: And that's the only option, you know, Yeah, I think 257 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 3: that it's totally understandable to me that the vast majority 258 00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:24,040 Speaker 3: of Americans use cars to get around because they live 259 00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,400 Speaker 3: in context, even some urban context, but especially suburban and 260 00:14:27,480 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 3: obviously especially rural context, where there really is no other option. 261 00:14:32,040 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 3: And so I neither blame individuals for those choices, nor 262 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,080 Speaker 3: do I see our current transportation system as a paragon 263 00:14:39,160 --> 00:14:43,080 Speaker 3: of freedom, right, especially when we consider how financially burdensome 264 00:14:43,760 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 3: cars are for peorn working class people. Right, it's a 265 00:14:46,840 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 3: real you know, it's just an expense, and it's a 266 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:53,320 Speaker 3: set of annoyances of maintaining increasingly old cars and filling 267 00:14:53,360 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 3: them with gas that's increasingly expensive, right, right, And you know, 268 00:14:57,160 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 3: there's a real affordability concern around electric vehicles, which obviously 269 00:15:00,960 --> 00:15:03,960 Speaker 3: federal subsidies are meant to address. I don't oppose that, 270 00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:06,200 Speaker 3: but I do think that it raises the question of 271 00:15:06,760 --> 00:15:11,200 Speaker 3: is there another path forward? Not that fully eliminates electric vehicles. 272 00:15:11,240 --> 00:15:13,960 Speaker 3: I don't see that as feasible in any like near 273 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:17,360 Speaker 3: medium term, but that kind of gives them the right 274 00:15:17,440 --> 00:15:22,320 Speaker 3: proportion in a broader transportation system that involves other options 275 00:15:22,560 --> 00:15:26,280 Speaker 3: and other possibilities for people to move around that are 276 00:15:26,360 --> 00:15:29,320 Speaker 3: more equitable, more affordable, maybe even free if we look 277 00:15:29,400 --> 00:15:32,480 Speaker 3: into experiments and like the fair free buses popping up 278 00:15:32,520 --> 00:15:35,720 Speaker 3: in some cities that are more active like biking and 279 00:15:35,800 --> 00:15:38,760 Speaker 3: walking and good for physical and mental health in that way. 280 00:15:39,120 --> 00:15:41,960 Speaker 3: You know, there's a whole host of benefits that a 281 00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 3: company just again not eliminating cars, but bringing them down 282 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 3: to size and having other modes of transportation available to 283 00:15:49,480 --> 00:15:51,920 Speaker 3: people and sort of creating different types of street scapes 284 00:15:51,920 --> 00:15:53,160 Speaker 3: and land uses around that. 285 00:15:53,720 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, like, what are the forces that are pushing against that, 286 00:15:57,520 --> 00:16:03,560 Speaker 1: because I feel like most people, average Americans, are like, yeah, 287 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:05,760 Speaker 1: it would be great if I had a cheap and 288 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:06,920 Speaker 1: easy way to get around. 289 00:16:07,320 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 3: Yeah. It's a lot of kind of political and economic 290 00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:16,000 Speaker 3: interactions at a variety of scales of our government and economy. Right, 291 00:16:16,040 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 3: I mean, I think that we could go back in 292 00:16:18,360 --> 00:16:20,480 Speaker 3: the early twentieth century and look at what were some 293 00:16:20,600 --> 00:16:23,640 Speaker 3: critical decisions that were made that kind of put us 294 00:16:23,720 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 3: on this path dependent which is Scott of course like 295 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:29,800 Speaker 3: much exacerbated and the sort of post World War boom 296 00:16:29,840 --> 00:16:32,040 Speaker 3: and the sort of great acceleration of the nineteen seventies. Right, 297 00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:34,520 Speaker 3: we could look at all these critical moments where it's 298 00:16:34,640 --> 00:16:39,920 Speaker 3: often a confluence of lobbying efforts by some combination of 299 00:16:39,960 --> 00:16:43,560 Speaker 3: the fossil fuel or auto industry in some cases specifically 300 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 3: to dismantle what prevailed in a prior era of like 301 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:50,880 Speaker 3: streetcars in downtown urban areas, right that weren't some cases 302 00:16:51,000 --> 00:16:53,400 Speaker 3: eliminated to make more room for cars or to make 303 00:16:53,440 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 3: wider avenues, you know, the neighborhoods that were destroyed by highways, 304 00:16:57,560 --> 00:17:00,040 Speaker 3: the whole emergence and very high levels of government and 305 00:17:00,200 --> 00:17:03,640 Speaker 3: investment in the interstate highway system, the sort of declining 306 00:17:03,800 --> 00:17:08,119 Speaker 3: investment on the other hand for public transit authorities and 307 00:17:08,400 --> 00:17:10,919 Speaker 3: for the commuter rail systems, and let's not even get 308 00:17:10,960 --> 00:17:14,240 Speaker 3: into Amtrak sort of state of affairs. Right, So you know, 309 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:17,920 Speaker 3: I don't have a conspiratorial worldview, though some times it 310 00:17:17,960 --> 00:17:20,320 Speaker 3: could be tempting, right, Yeah, But there are a lot 311 00:17:20,560 --> 00:17:24,680 Speaker 3: of decisions that took place at relatively high levels of 312 00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:29,040 Speaker 3: power authority and sort of financial investment and resource allocation 313 00:17:29,560 --> 00:17:33,119 Speaker 3: that in combination and at critical junctures of US history 314 00:17:33,119 --> 00:17:36,120 Speaker 3: where we see these inflection points that kind of both 315 00:17:36,200 --> 00:17:39,200 Speaker 3: put us initially on a path of car dependency and 316 00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:43,520 Speaker 3: then reinforce that over time. And my concern and just 317 00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:46,080 Speaker 3: to sort of close this point out is that we 318 00:17:46,200 --> 00:17:48,960 Speaker 3: are at such a critical juncture, you know, between the 319 00:17:49,000 --> 00:17:52,040 Speaker 3: sort of escalating climate crisis and the ways that that 320 00:17:52,240 --> 00:17:55,919 Speaker 3: is destabilizing people around the world and in the United States, 321 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:58,440 Speaker 3: right on the one hand, and the other hand, this 322 00:17:58,800 --> 00:18:03,040 Speaker 3: exciting and very important opportunity to totally change the energetic 323 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,440 Speaker 3: foundations of the world, right, like to move away from 324 00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:09,720 Speaker 3: fossil fuels once and for all, and to go, you know, 325 00:18:10,119 --> 00:18:14,280 Speaker 3: to power our societies through renewable energy. But we're at 326 00:18:14,320 --> 00:18:18,280 Speaker 3: a critical juncture in terms of specifically how that renewable 327 00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:22,040 Speaker 3: energy transition is designed, who the winners and losers are, 328 00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:25,760 Speaker 3: what decisions made around certain trade offs right in the 329 00:18:25,840 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 3: sort of policy and resource decisions. So I'm worried that 330 00:18:29,960 --> 00:18:33,600 Speaker 3: this moment, which could if we think about it, critically 331 00:18:33,800 --> 00:18:36,199 Speaker 3: organize around it, and advocate for it, maybe put us 332 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:38,600 Speaker 3: on a slightly less car dependent path, right and use 333 00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:41,359 Speaker 3: this as a moment to create a different kind of 334 00:18:41,560 --> 00:18:47,240 Speaker 3: infrastructure of transportation, will instead reinforce not only car dependency itself, 335 00:18:48,119 --> 00:18:50,760 Speaker 3: but with the idea that like evs as an individual 336 00:18:50,840 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 3: technology are the panacea, right, but actually reinforce some of 337 00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:57,639 Speaker 3: the worst trends within a car dependent status quo. And 338 00:18:57,720 --> 00:19:01,520 Speaker 3: I specifically am thinking about gargantuan cars with gargantuine batteries, 339 00:19:02,280 --> 00:19:04,160 Speaker 3: which actually take us further away from. 340 00:19:04,119 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 1: Communicals right which we're seeing like an explosion of in 341 00:19:08,640 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 1: the last year or so. 342 00:19:09,960 --> 00:19:12,320 Speaker 3: I feel like it's like the EV truck and the 343 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:14,960 Speaker 3: just so many of the Super. 344 00:19:14,720 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 1: Bowl ads last year were for these like oversized evs. 345 00:19:20,119 --> 00:19:26,159 Speaker 3: Oh God, why. There are reasons, terrible reasons, bad reasons 346 00:19:26,240 --> 00:19:29,760 Speaker 3: like bad faith reasons, and more understandable reasons that this 347 00:19:30,040 --> 00:19:32,520 Speaker 3: trend is happening and it is a real trend. We 348 00:19:32,800 --> 00:19:36,200 Speaker 3: currently US average battery sizes for electric vehicles are like 349 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:39,639 Speaker 3: double where they were a decade ago, and also double 350 00:19:39,920 --> 00:19:42,960 Speaker 3: like the global average, and so they're really on their 351 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,480 Speaker 3: own path right now. They are just getting larger and 352 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:49,119 Speaker 3: larger all of those. Also, it's worth noting the larger 353 00:19:49,160 --> 00:19:51,040 Speaker 3: the battery, the more raw materials. And we'll get into 354 00:19:51,080 --> 00:19:53,159 Speaker 3: in a moment, like what our findings were with different 355 00:19:53,200 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 3: you know how much lithium would be required by these 356 00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,679 Speaker 3: different scenarios. But you know, definitely larger battery means more 357 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:00,600 Speaker 3: lithium and more of anything else else that goes into 358 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,920 Speaker 3: that battery. It also, by the way, means more expensive. 359 00:20:03,560 --> 00:20:05,360 Speaker 3: I think the e hummers like one hundred and ten 360 00:20:05,400 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 3: thousand dollars. It's so expensive that it doesn't even qualify 361 00:20:08,040 --> 00:20:10,480 Speaker 3: for the IRA subsidies, which max out at eighty thousand 362 00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:14,879 Speaker 3: for an E suv, so they're not affordable. They're very heavy. 363 00:20:15,000 --> 00:20:18,960 Speaker 3: They're even heavier than the equivalent like a gas guzzler 364 00:20:19,160 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 3: suv because the battery is so heavy, which poses safety 365 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:25,280 Speaker 3: risks to pedestrians and other drivers. So there's like they're 366 00:20:25,359 --> 00:20:28,000 Speaker 3: wrong on all counts. The real reason I think they're 367 00:20:28,040 --> 00:20:31,680 Speaker 3: being pushed is because the auto industry has a massive 368 00:20:31,760 --> 00:20:34,479 Speaker 3: need for new financial investment in retooling all of its 369 00:20:34,560 --> 00:20:38,280 Speaker 3: factories to be to create evs instead of ice vehicles, 370 00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:42,399 Speaker 3: and they want a profitable sales item. And as we know, 371 00:20:42,600 --> 00:20:46,000 Speaker 3: just like with gas guzzling SUVs, e SUVs have really 372 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:48,960 Speaker 3: like wide profit margins, like they're really profitable compared to 373 00:20:49,000 --> 00:20:52,560 Speaker 3: more compact cars. So that's their obvious interest, and then 374 00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:55,400 Speaker 3: they sell this as consumers are demanding it. Now that's 375 00:20:55,520 --> 00:20:58,640 Speaker 3: less clear to me because of how tightly connected consumer 376 00:20:58,680 --> 00:21:02,680 Speaker 3: preferences are with fossil fuel and auto industry advertising. But 377 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:05,280 Speaker 3: you know, to the extent that consumers want these, I think, 378 00:21:05,400 --> 00:21:06,920 Speaker 3: you know, there are different reasons we could get into 379 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 3: sort of like toxic masculinity stuff, but to just put 380 00:21:10,119 --> 00:21:12,320 Speaker 3: that aside, like, I think the most valid reason that 381 00:21:12,359 --> 00:21:15,320 Speaker 3: a consumer would want a large vehicle, aside from if 382 00:21:15,359 --> 00:21:18,280 Speaker 3: they're like a construction contractor or something, is that they're 383 00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:21,520 Speaker 3: concerned about range. Right, they think a larger battery is true, 384 00:21:21,600 --> 00:21:23,440 Speaker 3: we'll get them more range. We'll get them to three 385 00:21:23,640 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 3: hundred miles right on a charge. And we have a 386 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,399 Speaker 3: really insufficient charging network in the US, so that that 387 00:21:29,520 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 3: is real, especially for folks again and those really sprawly 388 00:21:32,800 --> 00:21:35,320 Speaker 3: rural and suburban areas and excerbs where you know you 389 00:21:35,400 --> 00:21:38,520 Speaker 3: might be going long distances between a charging station. Of course, 390 00:21:38,600 --> 00:21:41,639 Speaker 3: most folks are taking really short trips on average, so 391 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:43,320 Speaker 3: it's more of a mental anxiety than a sort of 392 00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:45,720 Speaker 3: real one, if that makes sense. But you know, the 393 00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:48,280 Speaker 3: way we address that is through thinking about charging stations, 394 00:21:48,320 --> 00:21:50,560 Speaker 3: through thinking also about density and the distances that folks 395 00:21:50,880 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 3: I'm traveling, rather than filling that gap with an e hummer, 396 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,440 Speaker 3: which is just not a rational way to fill that 397 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:57,320 Speaker 3: social need. 398 00:21:58,520 --> 00:22:02,240 Speaker 1: Do you feel like the automotive life Bobby and industry 399 00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:07,439 Speaker 1: kind of in general gets less attention than the fossil 400 00:22:07,480 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 1: fuel guys in all of this, and is that fair? 401 00:22:10,560 --> 00:22:13,280 Speaker 1: I see so much more on the oil companies, but 402 00:22:13,359 --> 00:22:17,000 Speaker 1: that's also because of the work I'm doing. So I'm 403 00:22:17,119 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 1: just I don't know if it seems to you like 404 00:22:19,200 --> 00:22:23,000 Speaker 1: there's an adequate amount of attention on the way that 405 00:22:23,080 --> 00:22:28,399 Speaker 1: the automotive industry works to shape policies and market preferences 406 00:22:28,520 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 1: and all of that kind of stuff. 407 00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:32,760 Speaker 3: I don't think there is enough. And it's a really 408 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,920 Speaker 3: important industry to look at both historically and its role 409 00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:39,600 Speaker 3: and as I said, lobbying to dismantle other transportation options. 410 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,840 Speaker 3: So we should have that critical historical lens and how 411 00:22:43,040 --> 00:22:45,840 Speaker 3: deeply intertwined its interests have been with the fossil fuel 412 00:22:46,240 --> 00:22:48,840 Speaker 3: industry and fossil capital. Right, So that's another lens, right, 413 00:22:48,880 --> 00:22:51,080 Speaker 3: it's sort of approximate to your own work. And then 414 00:22:51,119 --> 00:22:54,960 Speaker 3: on the other hand, how they alongside mining companies, some 415 00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:57,320 Speaker 3: of which by the way, are like coal companies too. 416 00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 3: I mean, these mega mining companies mine in multiple including 417 00:23:00,800 --> 00:23:03,879 Speaker 3: in fossil fuel sectors, and so now mining companies and 418 00:23:03,920 --> 00:23:06,960 Speaker 3: auto companies are literally and this is no exaggeration. You 419 00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,720 Speaker 3: can go to any of their websites investor relation communicats, 420 00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 3: press releases and see how they're setting themselves up as 421 00:23:13,359 --> 00:23:16,160 Speaker 3: like climate saviors, like the auto industry with the mining 422 00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,080 Speaker 3: industry is going to save us from the climate crisis 423 00:23:18,560 --> 00:23:21,720 Speaker 3: that in a deep way the mining industry qua its 424 00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:24,440 Speaker 3: role in fossil fuel extraction, and the auto industry as 425 00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,119 Speaker 3: like the main consumer good aside from the power sector 426 00:23:27,480 --> 00:23:30,560 Speaker 3: that uses fossil fuels, Like these are the culprits, not 427 00:23:30,680 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 3: the saviors, right, And I don't think we should be 428 00:23:33,160 --> 00:23:37,040 Speaker 3: designing an energy transition or envisioning one in which these 429 00:23:37,119 --> 00:23:41,440 Speaker 3: two industries have as large and sort of strategic roles 430 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,920 Speaker 3: as they currently do. And we should be sort of 431 00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 3: thinking about, like, you know, again, what were the causes 432 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,840 Speaker 3: of the climate crisis. What would a society as zero 433 00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,800 Speaker 3: emission society look like that's equitable and just, and like, 434 00:23:52,960 --> 00:23:57,359 Speaker 3: what role then should technologies like lithium batteries, electric vehicles 435 00:23:57,520 --> 00:23:59,680 Speaker 3: and the mind materials that furnish them play in that 436 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,000 Speaker 3: rather than kind of assume, as I worry that some 437 00:24:03,880 --> 00:24:06,440 Speaker 3: colleagues in the climate sort of world are doing, is 438 00:24:06,520 --> 00:24:09,120 Speaker 3: that any new lithium mind built is like climate action, 439 00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:12,080 Speaker 3: or any EV sold is climate action when we know 440 00:24:12,200 --> 00:24:14,600 Speaker 3: that some many people buying evs it's their third car 441 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,920 Speaker 3: and we don't even know if it's replacing the use 442 00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,040 Speaker 3: of their gas. I mean, the data is still in 443 00:24:19,160 --> 00:24:21,880 Speaker 3: progress there, right, But it's not the same to buy 444 00:24:21,880 --> 00:24:23,800 Speaker 3: an EV as to bring down emissions. Right. We have 445 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:26,119 Speaker 3: to evaluate those separately and see how they relate to 446 00:24:26,200 --> 00:24:29,719 Speaker 3: one another. While I'm absolutely in favor of electrifying transportation 447 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:31,920 Speaker 3: one hundred percent, and evs are going to play a 448 00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,800 Speaker 3: role there, I just think we need to disentangle, like 449 00:24:35,040 --> 00:24:38,840 Speaker 3: our goal is confronting the climate crisis and politically confronting 450 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:42,320 Speaker 3: and economically confronting the actors that caused it, and that 451 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 3: should be our kind of horizon and our framework for 452 00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:49,000 Speaker 3: what specific policies or practices we advocate for. Yeah, the 453 00:24:49,160 --> 00:24:51,080 Speaker 3: thing I kind of come back to over and over 454 00:24:51,119 --> 00:24:55,720 Speaker 3: again is that just replacing the energy source is not 455 00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:58,399 Speaker 3: ever going to be enough. There needs to be a 456 00:24:58,600 --> 00:25:01,280 Speaker 3: different decision making free work. We can't keep. 457 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 1: Evaluating decisions in the context of how little change does 458 00:25:06,359 --> 00:25:10,159 Speaker 1: this require of people, or how little change does this require. 459 00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 3: Of companies or whatever. And you mentioned Chile before. 460 00:25:13,880 --> 00:25:15,560 Speaker 1: One of the things that I've been looking at is 461 00:25:15,840 --> 00:25:18,800 Speaker 1: rights of nature as sort of an example of a 462 00:25:18,960 --> 00:25:23,240 Speaker 1: different type of decision making framework that just prioritizes different 463 00:25:23,320 --> 00:25:28,960 Speaker 1: things than you know, corporate profits or you know, lack 464 00:25:29,040 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 1: of discomfort for consumers. I'm curious what you think about 465 00:25:32,440 --> 00:25:36,280 Speaker 1: the shift that is happening in some Latin American countries 466 00:25:36,400 --> 00:25:40,760 Speaker 1: towards that and whether it is one of the ways 467 00:25:40,880 --> 00:25:43,479 Speaker 1: that people could start to look at. Okay, what does 468 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:45,560 Speaker 1: a different decision making framework look like? 469 00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:48,000 Speaker 3: For sure? No, I'm so glad you asked about that, 470 00:25:48,160 --> 00:25:49,920 Speaker 3: because I think that, you know, first of all, in 471 00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 3: and of itself, it's a very interesting legal innovation that's 472 00:25:52,359 --> 00:25:55,000 Speaker 3: been adopted, as you said, in several Latin American countries 473 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:58,960 Speaker 3: and constitutions, in ordinary law and regulations, and increasing numbers 474 00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:02,439 Speaker 3: of court cases that have been one on nature's behalf 475 00:26:02,600 --> 00:26:05,000 Speaker 3: and so a whole interesting topic in and of itself. 476 00:26:05,080 --> 00:26:07,320 Speaker 3: But just to zoom out a little bit, you know, 477 00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:10,080 Speaker 3: I think that I'm a little biased in terms of 478 00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:13,720 Speaker 3: both family background and also my research area being Latin 479 00:26:13,720 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 3: America for so long, But I do think Latin America 480 00:26:18,040 --> 00:26:21,800 Speaker 3: really shows some of the most both harmful but also 481 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:26,880 Speaker 3: progressive and just and innovative, like instantiations of both attractive 482 00:26:26,920 --> 00:26:29,920 Speaker 3: sectors and potential ways that humans and nature can relate 483 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,879 Speaker 3: to one another, like the whole range is there, like, 484 00:26:33,080 --> 00:26:35,480 Speaker 3: you know, just to make it really stark, like, On 485 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,400 Speaker 3: the one hand, Latin America is the most dangerous place 486 00:26:38,440 --> 00:26:42,120 Speaker 3: in the world to be a water or environmental defender. 487 00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:44,440 Speaker 3: Right to be someone who is defending their access to 488 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:48,159 Speaker 3: clean air, to their livelihoods, to culturally sensitive territory, against 489 00:26:48,200 --> 00:26:52,159 Speaker 3: the encroachment of whether it's attractive sectors or the agribusiness sector, 490 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:55,159 Speaker 3: both of those are are pretty culpable here. It is 491 00:26:55,240 --> 00:26:58,560 Speaker 3: extremely dangerous to be an activist and people get killed 492 00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:03,000 Speaker 3: every year doing that, right, engaging in forms of civil disobedience. Right, So, 493 00:27:03,040 --> 00:27:05,480 Speaker 3: on the one hand, it's an extremely dangerous place to 494 00:27:05,600 --> 00:27:07,680 Speaker 3: engage in this protest. On the other hand, it's the 495 00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:09,600 Speaker 3: place where we see and these are probably in some 496 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:12,560 Speaker 3: ways not unrelated facts like some of the most militant 497 00:27:12,600 --> 00:27:17,240 Speaker 3: inspiring forms of protests against fossil fuels, against attractive industries 498 00:27:17,280 --> 00:27:20,400 Speaker 3: more broadly, mining, et cetera. Against you know, large scale 499 00:27:20,440 --> 00:27:22,920 Speaker 3: hydroelectric dams, you know, a whole host of projects that 500 00:27:23,040 --> 00:27:26,159 Speaker 3: have been seen to be harmful to people or environments, 501 00:27:26,280 --> 00:27:29,080 Speaker 3: people are willing to fight over them, right, and also 502 00:27:29,600 --> 00:27:31,480 Speaker 3: you know, whether it's direct action, or whether it's in 503 00:27:31,520 --> 00:27:35,520 Speaker 3: the electoral arena and electing people that hold these values, 504 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,520 Speaker 3: or you know, whether it's rewriting constitutions and ratifying them. 505 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:41,760 Speaker 3: And so, you know, we just see a very contentious, 506 00:27:41,880 --> 00:27:44,320 Speaker 3: both on the harmful end and on the inspiring end, 507 00:27:44,480 --> 00:27:47,879 Speaker 3: kind of political economy of extraction in Latin America. And 508 00:27:48,040 --> 00:27:50,359 Speaker 3: I think this is more relevant than it seems, not 509 00:27:50,560 --> 00:27:52,920 Speaker 3: just because Latin Americas are close by and we share 510 00:27:52,920 --> 00:27:54,879 Speaker 3: a hemisphere, and so we should think about, you know, 511 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,840 Speaker 3: what's happening south of US, let's say, but also because 512 00:27:59,080 --> 00:28:02,280 Speaker 3: you know, as the US, Canada, a bunch of European 513 00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:08,120 Speaker 3: countries are wanting to onshore mining, so called critical minerals mining, 514 00:28:08,240 --> 00:28:10,399 Speaker 3: you know, for strategic purposes, right. We want to make 515 00:28:10,400 --> 00:28:12,800 Speaker 3: sure we have lithium at home, close to home, and 516 00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:14,919 Speaker 3: we build these supply chains at home instead of being 517 00:28:14,960 --> 00:28:17,840 Speaker 3: reliant on you know, foreign entities of concern. I think 518 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:21,200 Speaker 3: that's the language that's used federally for China and other 519 00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,879 Speaker 3: countries that have large roles in these supply chains, right, 520 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 3: So there's this desire on the part of policy leads 521 00:28:26,880 --> 00:28:30,520 Speaker 3: to onshore a lot of mining, right. I like to 522 00:28:30,600 --> 00:28:33,360 Speaker 3: refer to this map that the Center for Biological Diversity 523 00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:38,440 Speaker 3: Nevada director Patrick Donnelley maintains of lithium mining in Western States, 524 00:28:38,560 --> 00:28:41,320 Speaker 3: and he's mapped like one hundred and ten projects at 525 00:28:41,400 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 3: some level of like permitting or financing across just the 526 00:28:44,600 --> 00:28:47,360 Speaker 3: western part of the United States, just the Western States, right, 527 00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:49,440 Speaker 3: one hundred and ten just lithium, right, not all the 528 00:28:49,480 --> 00:28:51,440 Speaker 3: critical minerals and not all the states in the country. 529 00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:53,440 Speaker 3: And of course some of these minds will never happen. 530 00:28:53,480 --> 00:28:56,000 Speaker 3: They'll encounter a regulatory hurdle or a financial hurdle. But 531 00:28:56,400 --> 00:28:59,240 Speaker 3: it's a lot of projects, right. And so as the 532 00:28:59,400 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 3: US is kind of scrambling, the US government, I should say, 533 00:29:02,280 --> 00:29:04,239 Speaker 3: and to some extent, you know, corporations as well are 534 00:29:04,280 --> 00:29:07,240 Speaker 3: kind of scrambling and saying like we want to do 535 00:29:07,360 --> 00:29:11,880 Speaker 3: all this mining here. And GM just literally invested hundreds 536 00:29:11,920 --> 00:29:14,840 Speaker 3: of millions of dollars directly into a lithium mining project 537 00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,160 Speaker 3: in Nevada. So this is the mining industry auto industry 538 00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:21,479 Speaker 3: relationship is getting very close now, you know, as that's happening. 539 00:29:21,600 --> 00:29:25,000 Speaker 3: It's going to spark conflicts that don't look that different 540 00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,360 Speaker 3: from conflicts in Latin America. They're often going to involve 541 00:29:27,400 --> 00:29:30,120 Speaker 3: indigenous peoples, not exclusively, but in many cases they do. 542 00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:33,760 Speaker 3: They're often going to involve concerns about groundwater, about where 543 00:29:33,800 --> 00:29:36,280 Speaker 3: we properly consulted, did we give our consent? And these 544 00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:39,840 Speaker 3: are exactly the structural conflicts in Latin America. And you'll 545 00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,040 Speaker 3: see this, you know, similar opposing arguments like mining will 546 00:29:43,040 --> 00:29:46,040 Speaker 3: bring jobs, mining is good for national security, you know, 547 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,760 Speaker 3: et cetera. Right, So that kind of whole gamut of 548 00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,400 Speaker 3: the way the politics of mining plays out to sort 549 00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,880 Speaker 3: of see how that has happened in Latin America, where 550 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 3: which contains some of the top producers of x you know, 551 00:29:56,760 --> 00:29:58,760 Speaker 3: xro y mineral in the world, right, Chile is also 552 00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:02,160 Speaker 3: the number one copper producer. I think shows us not 553 00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:05,240 Speaker 3: exactly our future, but does show us what a society 554 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:09,280 Speaker 3: looks like that is riven over conflicts over extraction, which 555 00:30:09,400 --> 00:30:12,720 Speaker 3: is maybe not how we think about the energy transition, 556 00:30:12,840 --> 00:30:17,160 Speaker 3: right because obviously the energy transition involves moving away from 557 00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:21,440 Speaker 3: the enormous volumes of extraction for fuel and that's important, 558 00:30:21,560 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 3: and many a climate advocate will rightfully point out that 559 00:30:25,040 --> 00:30:28,080 Speaker 3: the amount of coal and gas and oil mind in 560 00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:31,240 Speaker 3: our current energy system is so much bigger than the 561 00:30:31,280 --> 00:30:34,200 Speaker 3: amount of critical minerals mining that will take place over 562 00:30:34,200 --> 00:30:36,520 Speaker 3: the next few decades, and that is true and correct. 563 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:39,160 Speaker 3: But I think just saying that does not really tell 564 00:30:39,240 --> 00:30:42,840 Speaker 3: us very much about how the politics and social conflicts 565 00:30:42,880 --> 00:30:46,000 Speaker 3: and divides around the mining that will happen during the 566 00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,080 Speaker 3: energy transition are going to play out. And just saying 567 00:30:49,120 --> 00:30:53,240 Speaker 3: that fact doesn't actually wrestle with the environmental, social, or 568 00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:57,720 Speaker 3: even geopolitical and economic kind of impacts and dilemmas posed 569 00:30:57,800 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 3: by the mining that's to come, you know, at the 570 00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,800 Speaker 3: same time that we know that overall it's like less 571 00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:05,480 Speaker 3: extraction from the Earth in a system that constantly stracks 572 00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:06,560 Speaker 3: for the purposes of fuel. 573 00:31:07,080 --> 00:31:10,440 Speaker 1: Right, that's such a good point. Okay, So can I 574 00:31:10,560 --> 00:31:14,440 Speaker 1: have you just recap some of your high level findings 575 00:31:14,760 --> 00:31:16,160 Speaker 1: in this modeling? 576 00:31:16,680 --> 00:31:18,640 Speaker 3: Yeah, thanks for asking that, And I'm going to go 577 00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:21,640 Speaker 3: to the most dramatic finding just because i think it 578 00:31:22,120 --> 00:31:24,480 Speaker 3: shows the full range of possibility ahead of us. Right, 579 00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:27,200 Speaker 3: it's sort of nicely arrays like sort of worst and 580 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,600 Speaker 3: best case scenarios. So if we go to the year 581 00:31:29,680 --> 00:31:34,120 Speaker 3: twenty fifty, our model models eeromission transportation. What that would 582 00:31:34,160 --> 00:31:38,200 Speaker 3: require in terms of lithium mining from now to twenty fifty. 583 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 3: But if we just take that snapshot year of twenty 584 00:31:40,240 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 3: fifty and we look at lithium demand, our worst case 585 00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:47,440 Speaker 3: scenario to our best case scenario is a ninety two 586 00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:50,560 Speaker 3: percent difference. So if we just take the year twenty fifty, 587 00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:53,360 Speaker 3: this future that we're looking at is eeromission transportation sector. 588 00:31:53,720 --> 00:31:57,360 Speaker 3: Our worst case scenario is we maintain current levels of 589 00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:01,120 Speaker 3: car dependency, car usage, Cars have this outsize kind of 590 00:32:01,200 --> 00:32:04,480 Speaker 3: share of overall transportation modes, Vehicle ownership rates remain like 591 00:32:04,560 --> 00:32:08,080 Speaker 3: the same as they are now, and we also get 592 00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,440 Speaker 3: to continue on the trend of bigger and bigger batteries 593 00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,160 Speaker 3: right that are getting more and more out of step 594 00:32:12,240 --> 00:32:15,200 Speaker 3: with like global averages. That's our worst case scenario. Things 595 00:32:15,240 --> 00:32:18,240 Speaker 3: get kind of actually worse but electrified. And our best 596 00:32:18,320 --> 00:32:21,480 Speaker 3: case scenario is we bring battery sizes back to sort 597 00:32:21,480 --> 00:32:25,040 Speaker 3: of reasonable size, We expand how many folks are using 598 00:32:25,200 --> 00:32:28,640 Speaker 3: buses or cycling, We densify our suburbs a bit, we 599 00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:32,000 Speaker 3: have maximum levels of recycling and recovery that are technically feasible. 600 00:32:32,600 --> 00:32:35,640 Speaker 3: That second future is ninety two percent less lithium than 601 00:32:35,680 --> 00:32:39,760 Speaker 3: the first future. And I know that the ambitious future 602 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 3: is probably beyond the realm of what feels politically possible 603 00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,760 Speaker 3: right now. And I understand that, you know, I am 604 00:32:46,840 --> 00:32:49,000 Speaker 3: not like living in the clouds. I'm aware of that, 605 00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:52,240 Speaker 3: but I think that having that option on the table, 606 00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:56,120 Speaker 3: because in that most ambitious future, we totally limited emissions 607 00:32:56,160 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 3: and everyone has a way to get around, right, We're 608 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,080 Speaker 3: not denying anyone mobility, and we're not falling short of 609 00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:04,240 Speaker 3: our climate goals. And we could have that future and 610 00:33:04,760 --> 00:33:06,640 Speaker 3: use a lot less lithium and then have all these 611 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,840 Speaker 3: other amazing co benefits of reducing car usage. Right, And 612 00:33:09,920 --> 00:33:11,840 Speaker 3: then I want to throw out one other finding. I'm 613 00:33:11,840 --> 00:33:13,480 Speaker 3: going to go for a drama right now, right because 614 00:33:13,520 --> 00:33:15,280 Speaker 3: you can get into the granule findings where we have 615 00:33:15,360 --> 00:33:18,560 Speaker 3: in between levels of X, Y and Z. Another finding 616 00:33:18,600 --> 00:33:21,640 Speaker 3: that I really like, just because it addresses folks who 617 00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:24,520 Speaker 3: are understandly concerned at like there is no America without car. 618 00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:26,560 Speaker 3: You know, we can't move away from being heard a pendent. 619 00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:28,640 Speaker 3: We just have to suck it up. And I say 620 00:33:28,680 --> 00:33:31,080 Speaker 3: to those people. We could stay in scenario one, which 621 00:33:31,120 --> 00:33:33,400 Speaker 3: is the one where we keep levels of car usage 622 00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:36,200 Speaker 3: and vehicle ownership rates and we don't identify anything, and 623 00:33:36,240 --> 00:33:38,520 Speaker 3: we have lots of sprawl. We could stay in scenario one, 624 00:33:38,640 --> 00:33:41,560 Speaker 3: and we could just bring our batteries to like the 625 00:33:41,680 --> 00:33:44,920 Speaker 3: right size or not this gargantuan size, and in twenty 626 00:33:45,040 --> 00:33:47,840 Speaker 3: fifty we could use forty two percent less lithium with 627 00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:49,960 Speaker 3: the same amount of cars and the same amount of 628 00:33:50,000 --> 00:33:53,080 Speaker 3: car usage and vehicle ownership if we just make the 629 00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:56,200 Speaker 3: batteries a more normal size, like rather than the super size. 630 00:33:56,320 --> 00:33:59,760 Speaker 1: And we're talking about like normal, like completely competitive with 631 00:34:00,000 --> 00:34:01,440 Speaker 1: everybody else's battery size. 632 00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,200 Speaker 3: It's not a smart car, you know, those tiny European cars. 633 00:34:04,240 --> 00:34:05,960 Speaker 3: I'm not you know, not even going there because again 634 00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:07,840 Speaker 3: I know my audience, I know my limits of what 635 00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:09,920 Speaker 3: I can suggest. So you know, we're talking about the 636 00:34:09,960 --> 00:34:12,520 Speaker 3: nies on leaf or we're talking about what people drive 637 00:34:12,560 --> 00:34:15,080 Speaker 3: in Berlin or whatever I mean, meaning our peer nations 638 00:34:15,320 --> 00:34:17,719 Speaker 3: in wealthy global cities around the world, Like what are 639 00:34:17,760 --> 00:34:20,720 Speaker 3: people driving if they do drive, and that's the battery 640 00:34:20,760 --> 00:34:21,680 Speaker 3: size I'm talking about. 641 00:34:21,880 --> 00:34:26,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, that is incredible and also like quite hopeful and achievable. 642 00:34:26,719 --> 00:34:29,319 Speaker 1: You know, I think that if people are like, oh, 643 00:34:29,400 --> 00:34:32,160 Speaker 1: come on, the fact that there's this option on the 644 00:34:32,239 --> 00:34:35,720 Speaker 1: table that really doesn't require, you know, a heavy lift 645 00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:42,160 Speaker 1: that would deliver forty two percent less lithium is pretty incredible. Awesome, 646 00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:44,520 Speaker 1: all right, I'm going to link to the report in 647 00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:46,600 Speaker 1: the show notes and encourage people to go read it, 648 00:34:46,680 --> 00:34:49,120 Speaker 1: because it like it did. Actually, I don't know, whenever 649 00:34:49,160 --> 00:34:50,920 Speaker 1: I read reports like this, I'm like, oh, okay, like 650 00:34:51,040 --> 00:34:52,480 Speaker 1: there is actually a way to do it, because I 651 00:34:52,520 --> 00:34:55,480 Speaker 1: think that a lot of times that's where people get stuck, 652 00:34:55,640 --> 00:34:57,600 Speaker 1: is like okay, but how on earth would we ever 653 00:34:57,719 --> 00:34:57,920 Speaker 1: do it? 654 00:34:58,080 --> 00:35:00,800 Speaker 3: And you've mapped it out here, which is very helpful. 655 00:35:01,320 --> 00:35:03,960 Speaker 3: I'm so glad, And as I said, like such a fan. 656 00:35:04,040 --> 00:35:06,960 Speaker 3: I've like assigned my students the Drilled podcast from the 657 00:35:07,000 --> 00:35:09,040 Speaker 3: beginning because like when I teach on the politics of 658 00:35:09,120 --> 00:35:12,000 Speaker 3: oil and stuff, Oh, that's so nice to hear. Yeah, 659 00:35:12,320 --> 00:35:15,000 Speaker 3: I'm thrilled to chat with you and hope it happens 660 00:35:15,040 --> 00:35:15,720 Speaker 3: again sometime. 661 00:35:27,680 --> 00:35:31,759 Speaker 1: Drilled is an original Critical Frequency production. Our producer is 662 00:35:31,880 --> 00:35:36,120 Speaker 1: Sarah Ventry. Sound design, mixing and mastering are by Peter Duff, 663 00:35:36,480 --> 00:35:40,160 Speaker 1: who also wrote our original score. Our First Amendment attorney 664 00:35:40,280 --> 00:35:43,759 Speaker 1: is James Wheaton at the First Amendment Project, and the 665 00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:47,759 Speaker 1: show is reported, written, and hosted by me Amy Westervelt 666 00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:07,000 Speaker 1: at a dieted, effective Brooking