1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,720 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,920 --> 00:00:05,800 Speaker 2: All right, here we go. 3 00:00:11,320 --> 00:00:15,079 Speaker 3: Spreading the corn ten seconds or maining to just go 4 00:00:15,240 --> 00:00:16,200 Speaker 3: show up to the basket. 5 00:00:16,360 --> 00:00:19,040 Speaker 1: Under the basket, it's the true for the wind. 6 00:00:19,079 --> 00:00:21,720 Speaker 4: God make a miracle. 7 00:00:22,520 --> 00:00:26,480 Speaker 2: I'm the water hit. 8 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:29,600 Speaker 3: That one from the parking lot. Welcome to the Big 9 00:00:29,640 --> 00:00:32,319 Speaker 3: Bets on Campus Podcast on Mike Calvary's I'm joined by 10 00:00:32,360 --> 00:00:36,040 Speaker 3: Action Networks Director of Research, Evan Abrams. We're gonna go 11 00:00:36,080 --> 00:00:38,760 Speaker 3: through everything that just happens in the last four days 12 00:00:38,800 --> 00:00:41,480 Speaker 3: of March Madness, the round to sixty four, the round 13 00:00:41,479 --> 00:00:44,519 Speaker 3: to thirty two. How we're looking setting up into the 14 00:00:44,560 --> 00:00:48,279 Speaker 3: Sweet sixteen, an Elite eight weekend. Evan, what are your 15 00:00:48,320 --> 00:00:52,040 Speaker 3: overarching thoughts here? Gut reaction. We're filming this, you know, 16 00:00:52,200 --> 00:00:56,360 Speaker 3: just minutes after the PAC twelve After Dark reunion between 17 00:00:56,520 --> 00:01:00,160 Speaker 3: Arizona and Oregon. Another thriller to end what was kind 18 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:03,279 Speaker 3: of a lackluster week to begin with. But at least 19 00:01:03,320 --> 00:01:05,319 Speaker 3: we got some drama in some of these games late. 20 00:01:05,400 --> 00:01:06,959 Speaker 3: And I know that you want to talk about the 21 00:01:06,959 --> 00:01:11,039 Speaker 3: Crab five and that Maryland, you know, absolute stunner at 22 00:01:11,080 --> 00:01:13,520 Speaker 3: the ends where it looks like Colorado State and the 23 00:01:13,560 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 3: mid majors. Cinderella finally had a chance, but then they 24 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:17,720 Speaker 3: get their heart ripped out. 25 00:01:17,920 --> 00:01:20,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Sunday was probably the most fun day. 26 00:01:21,280 --> 00:01:23,759 Speaker 2: I mean it felt like game after game, I mean 27 00:01:23,760 --> 00:01:27,000 Speaker 2: even early with Yukon Florida, all the storylines, all the drama, 28 00:01:27,080 --> 00:01:29,759 Speaker 2: Hurley being Hurley. I think it was the best day 29 00:01:29,760 --> 00:01:32,360 Speaker 2: of the tournament. Which, you know, the first three days, 30 00:01:32,400 --> 00:01:33,840 Speaker 2: or at least the first two days are supposed to 31 00:01:33,880 --> 00:01:37,160 Speaker 2: give us something. But in terms of just overarching storylines, 32 00:01:37,200 --> 00:01:40,080 Speaker 2: I mean favorites again just kind of absurd. So six 33 00:01:40,120 --> 00:01:43,600 Speaker 2: point favorites or higher twenty six and two straight up, 34 00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:46,319 Speaker 2: nineteen and nine against the spread in this year's tournament. 35 00:01:46,560 --> 00:01:49,280 Speaker 2: But if you look last two years, which I guess 36 00:01:49,360 --> 00:01:52,800 Speaker 2: is your nil. You know, might be a year or 37 00:01:52,840 --> 00:01:55,280 Speaker 2: two before that, but really last two years nil era 38 00:01:55,680 --> 00:01:59,680 Speaker 2: fifty one and six straight up, thirty eight and nineteen 39 00:01:59,680 --> 00:02:02,920 Speaker 2: against has spread six plus point favorites before the round 40 00:02:02,920 --> 00:02:06,840 Speaker 2: of sixteen sweet sixteen, So I mean, ridiculous amounts of 41 00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 2: chalk all over the place, very few upsets in certain places. 42 00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:12,639 Speaker 2: And then you mentioned the other two I think storylines, 43 00:02:12,639 --> 00:02:15,040 Speaker 2: which would be Saint John's. We had talked about all 44 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 2: the metrics kind of leading up to the tournament about 45 00:02:18,120 --> 00:02:20,680 Speaker 2: the fact that they you know, troubleshooting, you know, things 46 00:02:20,680 --> 00:02:22,880 Speaker 2: like that, that really weren't a final team. I didn't 47 00:02:22,880 --> 00:02:25,240 Speaker 2: think they were going. It bounced in the round of 48 00:02:25,280 --> 00:02:27,640 Speaker 2: thirty two. But I think they're a huge storyline. And 49 00:02:27,680 --> 00:02:30,560 Speaker 2: then yeah, the only buzzer beater so far has to 50 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,880 Speaker 2: be a storyline and knocks out Colorado State, which I 51 00:02:33,880 --> 00:02:37,200 Speaker 2: think probably deserved the game. But that's those are my storylines. 52 00:02:37,240 --> 00:02:38,720 Speaker 2: I'll let you kind of go from there. 53 00:02:39,000 --> 00:02:41,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, just to piggyback on some of your thoughts the 54 00:02:41,120 --> 00:02:44,119 Speaker 3: you know seed lines twelve through sixteen, only Colorado State 55 00:02:44,160 --> 00:02:47,320 Speaker 3: and McNeice advance, and Colorado State ended up closing as 56 00:02:47,320 --> 00:02:49,600 Speaker 3: a favorite over the five seed Memphis, who was without 57 00:02:49,600 --> 00:02:52,480 Speaker 3: one of their starting guards in Hunter. For Penny Hardaway, 58 00:02:52,680 --> 00:02:54,760 Speaker 3: probably a different game if he has a full deck. 59 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:56,760 Speaker 3: And then the only double digit seed to make it 60 00:02:56,800 --> 00:03:00,320 Speaker 3: to the Sweet sixteen is Arkansas. Doesn't exactly feel all 61 00:03:00,360 --> 00:03:02,720 Speaker 3: that Cinderella e to me. I mean, they got the 62 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:04,640 Speaker 3: one of the highest paid coaches in the game, a 63 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:07,120 Speaker 3: future Hall of Famer in John Calipari, and nine of 64 00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:09,320 Speaker 3: their players in their rotation with their four or five 65 00:03:09,360 --> 00:03:11,440 Speaker 3: star kids either out of high school or out of 66 00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:14,440 Speaker 3: the transfer portal. The other element, though, I think, which 67 00:03:14,520 --> 00:03:17,839 Speaker 3: is at least encouraging in terms of these games being 68 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:20,440 Speaker 3: more toss ups down the stretch, is that we saw 69 00:03:20,680 --> 00:03:22,840 Speaker 3: two of the number one seeds struggle a little bit. 70 00:03:22,880 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 3: You know, Houston was cruising in the second half against 71 00:03:25,639 --> 00:03:28,320 Speaker 3: against Gonzaga and then all of a sudden, you know, 72 00:03:28,400 --> 00:03:30,480 Speaker 3: it just looked at the Bulldogs flipped the switch. They 73 00:03:30,560 --> 00:03:33,400 Speaker 3: almost pull it out. They were win within three on 74 00:03:33,440 --> 00:03:36,000 Speaker 3: that final possession battle not able to get a shot up, 75 00:03:36,120 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 3: So that was disappointing for them, But just in terms 76 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:42,200 Speaker 3: of Houston being mortal moving forward, certainly something to monitor. 77 00:03:42,360 --> 00:03:44,680 Speaker 3: And then Florida really had a battle back erasing a 78 00:03:44,720 --> 00:03:48,600 Speaker 3: second half deficit against Yukon and finally putting Dan Hurley away. 79 00:03:48,880 --> 00:03:51,120 Speaker 3: That didn't seem like you know, the layup that at 80 00:03:51,240 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 3: least on paper, it appeared to be, you know, going 81 00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:56,000 Speaker 3: into the game. So we'll see, you know, some of 82 00:03:56,040 --> 00:03:57,880 Speaker 3: these matchups. We're going to dig into all the different 83 00:03:57,880 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 3: stats moving forward as we do prep to preview every 84 00:04:01,560 --> 00:04:04,880 Speaker 3: single game in those regional semifinals. What are some of 85 00:04:04,920 --> 00:04:07,320 Speaker 3: your overall trends that you've been spotting. I know that 86 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:10,560 Speaker 3: you're putting together your massive Sweet sixteen article, so you 87 00:04:10,680 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 3: probably uncovering just nugget after nugget. 88 00:04:13,320 --> 00:04:15,800 Speaker 2: Yeah, there's a lot here, but I think looking from 89 00:04:16,080 --> 00:04:20,120 Speaker 2: the past four days, the SEC Big ten narrative is 90 00:04:20,200 --> 00:04:23,040 Speaker 2: kind of fun. So obviously Big ten goes eight to 91 00:04:23,040 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 2: o against the spread in the round of sixty four, 92 00:04:24,920 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 2: eight no straight up, then all of a sudden Purdue 93 00:04:27,520 --> 00:04:29,640 Speaker 2: covers their nine to no. But I guess overall in 94 00:04:29,640 --> 00:04:31,800 Speaker 2: the round of thirty two they went just four and 95 00:04:31,880 --> 00:04:34,080 Speaker 2: four against the spread, so a little bit coming down 96 00:04:34,080 --> 00:04:36,760 Speaker 2: to earth. The SEC is the fun one, so five 97 00:04:36,800 --> 00:04:38,919 Speaker 2: and nine against the spread round of sixty four and 98 00:04:38,920 --> 00:04:41,320 Speaker 2: first four round of thirty two they go six and 99 00:04:41,360 --> 00:04:43,760 Speaker 2: two against the spread. But the best nugget of them 100 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:45,919 Speaker 2: all is kind of what you alluded to with Arkansas. 101 00:04:46,080 --> 00:04:49,279 Speaker 2: They're pretty much the Cinderella left in March Madness, which 102 00:04:49,279 --> 00:04:52,400 Speaker 2: feels a little odd. So we've had five upsets of 103 00:04:52,560 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 2: five plus points on the line in the first two 104 00:04:55,760 --> 00:04:58,720 Speaker 2: rounds of March Madness this year. The SEC had three 105 00:04:58,760 --> 00:05:02,599 Speaker 2: of them, and two from Arkansas, So I mean, when 106 00:05:02,600 --> 00:05:04,120 Speaker 2: you look at it from that point of view, it's 107 00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 2: just seems a little crazy that that's where we are. 108 00:05:06,960 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 2: So I think that's one trend to kind of look 109 00:05:09,360 --> 00:05:11,840 Speaker 2: for in the next rounds. As you know, there's only 110 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:14,479 Speaker 2: a few conferences left. And then the other note is this, 111 00:05:14,640 --> 00:05:18,440 Speaker 2: so SEC goes fifteen and seven straight up, Big ten, 112 00:05:18,520 --> 00:05:22,480 Speaker 2: twelve and four, Big twelve, ten and three, so twenty 113 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:26,880 Speaker 2: nine and six, those three conferences facing any team outside 114 00:05:26,920 --> 00:05:29,920 Speaker 2: those three conferences, then you look at every other conference, 115 00:05:30,279 --> 00:05:32,520 Speaker 2: they are five hundred or worse straight up in this 116 00:05:32,600 --> 00:05:37,120 Speaker 2: year's tournament fifteen and thirty eight. So it really was SEC, 117 00:05:37,240 --> 00:05:40,680 Speaker 2: Big ten, Big twelve kind of dominating. And you know, 118 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:42,960 Speaker 2: I'll leave this to you, you know, someone who is 119 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 2: just literally day to day with this sport while we're 120 00:05:45,600 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 2: kind of covering a few of the other ones when 121 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:49,680 Speaker 2: the season starts. But this feels like it was kind 122 00:05:49,680 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 2: of the whole way. 123 00:05:50,839 --> 00:05:53,239 Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's interesting when you look at the sport 124 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:55,240 Speaker 3: and zoom out, and I'm glad that you brought up 125 00:05:55,240 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 3: at the very beginning the window of nil and how 126 00:05:58,360 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 3: that's impacted and kind of turned to of these mid 127 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:04,160 Speaker 3: majors into de facto farm systems for the top programs 128 00:06:04,320 --> 00:06:07,440 Speaker 3: and really even the food chain across the entire sport. 129 00:06:07,560 --> 00:06:09,160 Speaker 3: If you're a low major and all of a sudden, 130 00:06:09,200 --> 00:06:11,640 Speaker 3: you put together a great freshman or sophomore season, you 131 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 3: may move up to a mid major. If you're playing 132 00:06:13,480 --> 00:06:15,360 Speaker 3: great basketball at a mid major, all of a sudden, 133 00:06:15,400 --> 00:06:18,320 Speaker 3: you're a rotational player. Cash and Nil checks out a 134 00:06:18,320 --> 00:06:21,920 Speaker 3: power program that's just kind of the channel that's kind 135 00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:25,000 Speaker 3: of worked its way out in this sport. And this 136 00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:26,600 Speaker 3: was supposed to be a year that was going to 137 00:06:26,640 --> 00:06:29,159 Speaker 3: be different. You looked at the twelve through sixteen seeds. 138 00:06:29,320 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 3: Eleven of those teams either won outright or a share 139 00:06:33,080 --> 00:06:35,760 Speaker 3: of their regular season title, and then won their conference 140 00:06:35,800 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 3: tournament as well. So you figured a lot of these 141 00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:40,880 Speaker 3: senior laden teams, teams that played well together. With the 142 00:06:40,880 --> 00:06:44,159 Speaker 3: exception of a team like Drake. It just didn't materialize. 143 00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:45,960 Speaker 3: And I still have issues. I'm going to say this, 144 00:06:46,080 --> 00:06:49,080 Speaker 3: and this affects both the big boys and the Cinderella's 145 00:06:49,120 --> 00:06:52,000 Speaker 3: all the same. It was clear that some of these 146 00:06:52,040 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 3: basketballs were overinflated. I want to say it was the 147 00:06:54,400 --> 00:06:56,800 Speaker 3: Baylor game where the kid missed the dunk and almost 148 00:06:56,839 --> 00:06:59,720 Speaker 3: flew out of the entire stadium. I've been watching basketball 149 00:06:59,760 --> 00:07:02,120 Speaker 3: for long time, I haven't seen someone miss a dunk 150 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:04,200 Speaker 3: and have it go back to the opposing foul line. 151 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 3: So I think that's clearly plays a part. You can 152 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:09,359 Speaker 3: see some of these sharp shooting teams really struggle and 153 00:07:09,360 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 3: not get the shooter's role from the perimeter. I think 154 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,000 Speaker 3: that plays a part of it. But also just in general, 155 00:07:15,080 --> 00:07:17,120 Speaker 3: I do think a lot of these teams not just 156 00:07:17,320 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 3: being able to snipe some of the players from the 157 00:07:19,600 --> 00:07:22,280 Speaker 3: mid major ranks, but then also keeping some of these 158 00:07:22,280 --> 00:07:25,080 Speaker 3: teams together and keeping kids on campus for an extra 159 00:07:25,160 --> 00:07:27,400 Speaker 3: season and saying, oh, you may be a second round 160 00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 3: or fringe NBA draft pick, we can stay and make 161 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 3: three or four million dollars in staying on campus. That, 162 00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:35,040 Speaker 3: all of a sudden is a very viable argument, and 163 00:07:35,120 --> 00:07:37,120 Speaker 3: one that I think will be really interesting depending on 164 00:07:37,160 --> 00:07:40,200 Speaker 3: how this run ends. For Cooper Flag and Duke, he's 165 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:42,880 Speaker 3: you know, tiptoeing around the idea of if you know, 166 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:44,320 Speaker 3: I don't want to go to the NBA, I don't 167 00:07:44,360 --> 00:07:46,640 Speaker 3: have to because I could certainly make ten million dollars 168 00:07:46,760 --> 00:07:49,520 Speaker 3: in nil money and stay on campus for another year. 169 00:07:50,200 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 3: All of a sudden, the mathematics of it start to 170 00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:55,080 Speaker 3: seem a little bit enticing, particularly if you don't want 171 00:07:55,080 --> 00:07:56,920 Speaker 3: to go to a particular team at the top of 172 00:07:56,960 --> 00:07:59,800 Speaker 3: the NBA draft. So just some interesting things to consider. 173 00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:02,680 Speaker 3: It comes to roster construction and retention for some of 174 00:08:02,720 --> 00:08:05,200 Speaker 3: these top teams, and how continuity really can make a 175 00:08:05,200 --> 00:08:07,040 Speaker 3: difference in March, and you see it in some of 176 00:08:07,120 --> 00:08:10,320 Speaker 3: these closer games. The teams that played together longer, they 177 00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 3: certainly have that muscle memory and they know how to 178 00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:13,720 Speaker 3: close games out. 179 00:08:13,960 --> 00:08:17,400 Speaker 2: Yeah, college has become lucrative, and that's a different thing 180 00:08:17,400 --> 00:08:19,680 Speaker 2: than we've seen in the past, which I think might 181 00:08:20,000 --> 00:08:22,680 Speaker 2: keep people there a little bit longer versus like their 182 00:08:22,760 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 2: rookie NBA thing. But that's kind of a discussion for 183 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 2: another day. But it is interesting to see this at 184 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:31,000 Speaker 2: the beginning of March madness, and I think some other 185 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 2: storylines just kind of rolling along here that I've seen. 186 00:08:34,800 --> 00:08:38,320 Speaker 2: Is even a matchup that for this weekend, Yeah, this 187 00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:41,640 Speaker 2: coming weekend with Bama and BYU. Some people look at 188 00:08:41,679 --> 00:08:45,240 Speaker 2: totals at one seventy four and a half, which at 189 00:08:45,240 --> 00:08:47,720 Speaker 2: this point is the second highest total we've ever seen 190 00:08:47,760 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 2: the tournament last thirty years, dating back to nineteen ninety five. 191 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 2: So it's a theme we've seen with Alabama as except 192 00:08:54,080 --> 00:08:56,400 Speaker 2: for playing Saint Mary's, which is a you know, more 193 00:08:56,440 --> 00:08:58,959 Speaker 2: of a pace thing because Saint Mary's is so slow. 194 00:08:59,040 --> 00:09:01,520 Speaker 2: But all those in the one seventies, if they had 195 00:09:01,559 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 2: three of them in last year's tournaments, So this is 196 00:09:03,960 --> 00:09:05,600 Speaker 2: kind of the first one we see in that range. 197 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:08,800 Speaker 2: But that is definitely something that will catch people's eye 198 00:09:09,040 --> 00:09:11,040 Speaker 2: when they look at the board. The other thing I 199 00:09:11,040 --> 00:09:13,920 Speaker 2: thought was kind of interesting and just going through nuggets 200 00:09:13,960 --> 00:09:18,520 Speaker 2: more from this weekend's action, So second half against the spread, 201 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 2: teams who were leading at the half end up going 202 00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:25,560 Speaker 2: twenty one to thirty against the second half spread in 203 00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,640 Speaker 2: those games, so you would think leading to comebacks, but 204 00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,880 Speaker 2: mostly just teams getting closer in the second half. That'd 205 00:09:31,920 --> 00:09:35,360 Speaker 2: be those second worst round of thirty two, round of 206 00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 2: sixty four last fifteen years. So interesting on that front 207 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:42,559 Speaker 2: is just teams weren't making incredible comebacks most of the favorites. 208 00:09:42,600 --> 00:09:44,839 Speaker 2: One which I think probably played into it in a 209 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,960 Speaker 2: little bit, and one other note I'll toss you and 210 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:51,400 Speaker 2: then just to get some more thoughts is UK Tennessee. 211 00:09:51,920 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 2: People have been talking about the fact that UK beat 212 00:09:55,080 --> 00:09:59,200 Speaker 2: Tennessee twice so you know, I think that's probably something 213 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:01,400 Speaker 2: a little interesting to look forward to the fact that 214 00:10:01,679 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 2: UK right now getting four and a half points, but 215 00:10:04,880 --> 00:10:07,480 Speaker 2: you know already experienced there of beating them twice, and 216 00:10:07,480 --> 00:10:08,760 Speaker 2: that's something people are going to talk about. 217 00:10:08,800 --> 00:10:10,719 Speaker 3: I think now March is the best month of the year, 218 00:10:10,840 --> 00:10:12,880 Speaker 3: not just for sports, but also getting the best deal 219 00:10:12,920 --> 00:10:14,880 Speaker 3: on Action Pro. Right now, you can get Action Pro 220 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:17,480 Speaker 3: for just over five dollars a month for the entire year. 221 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:20,800 Speaker 3: With an Action Pro account, you'll get Sean Kerner's bracket simulations, 222 00:10:20,880 --> 00:10:24,199 Speaker 3: Nick Giffens, player props, and other Action Network expert picks 223 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:27,040 Speaker 3: thirty minutes before they go out to everyone else. Plus, 224 00:10:27,280 --> 00:10:29,920 Speaker 3: since it's an entire year of Action Pro, you'll be 225 00:10:29,920 --> 00:10:31,959 Speaker 3: coveraged for the rest of the NCAA Tournament in Major 226 00:10:32,040 --> 00:10:34,720 Speaker 3: League Baseball, as well as next falls college football and 227 00:10:34,800 --> 00:10:37,800 Speaker 3: NFL seasons. So go to actionnetwork dot com slash March 228 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:39,400 Speaker 3: to get on board. 229 00:10:48,360 --> 00:11:00,400 Speaker 5: Head course shots and mad Scott buzz A, Beata's so 230 00:11:00,720 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 5: much as. 231 00:11:04,360 --> 00:11:15,360 Speaker 4: Keep geving, disappearing freshman with a hot hand, shoots and scores. 232 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:18,320 Speaker 3: Any other trends that popped out to you. I know 233 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:21,080 Speaker 3: that we're still playing catch up here on Sunday night 234 00:11:21,120 --> 00:11:24,920 Speaker 3: into the hours of the morning of Monday, and a 235 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:27,760 Speaker 3: lot to dissect. And also I want to say this, 236 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:31,640 Speaker 3: there's some that you have to just consider small sample sizes. 237 00:11:31,720 --> 00:11:34,199 Speaker 3: Even in the history of the NCAA tournament, going back 238 00:11:34,200 --> 00:11:36,720 Speaker 3: to nineteen eighty five when they expanded to sixty four teams, 239 00:11:36,880 --> 00:11:40,080 Speaker 3: we're still not dealing with this mountain of data, and 240 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:42,280 Speaker 3: some of the games can be fluky. There can be 241 00:11:42,320 --> 00:11:44,959 Speaker 3: other elements in terms of travel, in terms of location. 242 00:11:45,360 --> 00:11:47,680 Speaker 3: That was something that you know, Stucky and Greg and 243 00:11:47,720 --> 00:11:51,440 Speaker 3: I discussed at nauseum leading up to Michigan Wisconsin's run 244 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:55,200 Speaker 3: in Denver, playing at the elevation, you know, being so 245 00:11:55,360 --> 00:11:58,400 Speaker 3: high and having an opportunity to, you know, potentially have 246 00:11:58,440 --> 00:12:00,560 Speaker 3: to go deeper into their bench to be able to 247 00:12:00,800 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 3: counteract the fact that their players were gas coming off 248 00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:05,080 Speaker 3: the run of the Big Ten tournament. There's so much 249 00:12:05,120 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 3: that goes into it beyond what just happens on the court. 250 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:11,040 Speaker 3: But any other stats or nuggets that you pulled out 251 00:12:11,080 --> 00:12:13,480 Speaker 3: of this weekend's action that really stood out to you. 252 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:15,640 Speaker 2: I think the only two other things I would have 253 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:19,880 Speaker 2: listed here is we talked about SEC but specifically Arkansas 254 00:12:19,920 --> 00:12:23,360 Speaker 2: and Old Miss just being the only underdogs in both games, 255 00:12:23,960 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 2: which I think is intriguing. Cal has actually been an 256 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,319 Speaker 2: underdog now in all three considering he's a dog in 257 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,880 Speaker 2: the Sweet sixteen, first time he's ever done that. But 258 00:12:32,280 --> 00:12:34,560 Speaker 2: if you look at Cal six oh to one against 259 00:12:34,559 --> 00:12:38,280 Speaker 2: the spread as an underdog, Arkansas and Kentucky so perform 260 00:12:38,320 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 2: well in the tournament there, and then Beard overall twelve 261 00:12:40,880 --> 00:12:43,640 Speaker 2: and six against the spread in his career in the tournament. 262 00:12:43,760 --> 00:12:46,719 Speaker 2: So I think those teams a little bit frisky and 263 00:12:46,760 --> 00:12:48,920 Speaker 2: they're going to be getting points in the Sweet sixteen. 264 00:12:49,400 --> 00:12:51,680 Speaker 2: The other interesting one is you brought it up with Florida, 265 00:12:51,720 --> 00:12:54,760 Speaker 2: but they are now the only zero to two ATS 266 00:12:54,840 --> 00:12:57,560 Speaker 2: team heading into the Sweet sixteen. And we've only seen 267 00:12:57,640 --> 00:13:00,400 Speaker 2: one team win at all as a team who was 268 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:03,760 Speaker 2: owing to ATS to start the tournament. That was Arizona 269 00:13:03,800 --> 00:13:06,559 Speaker 2: in ninety seven. So a little bit of you know, 270 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,480 Speaker 2: some juju kind of working against them there, and you know, 271 00:13:09,520 --> 00:13:12,760 Speaker 2: teams who don't look impressive, and maybe the lines inflated, 272 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:14,320 Speaker 2: so you could look into it how you will, But 273 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 2: those are some things I thought were kind of interesting. 274 00:13:16,720 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 3: We're going to give you some look aheads, just you know, 275 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:21,760 Speaker 3: likes or Leans that we have for Thursday or Friday. 276 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:23,839 Speaker 3: Some of these numbers have just popped really in the 277 00:13:23,920 --> 00:13:26,840 Speaker 3: last twelve hours. I like BYU, you talked about him 278 00:13:26,880 --> 00:13:29,560 Speaker 3: in their matchup against Alabama. They're plus one seventy on 279 00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:31,600 Speaker 3: the money line right now. This is the official Greg 280 00:13:31,640 --> 00:13:35,120 Speaker 3: Waddell approved pick. Greg welcomes the second child to his 281 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 3: family this week, and he posted that on social media. 282 00:13:38,480 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 3: I'm shocked given how much heavy lifting he's done for 283 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:43,680 Speaker 3: BYU in the last six weeks. They did not name 284 00:13:43,720 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 3: the kid, Joseph Smith Waddell, but there's still time for 285 00:13:47,280 --> 00:13:49,240 Speaker 3: him to at least throw on a nickname if BYU 286 00:13:49,360 --> 00:13:51,120 Speaker 3: goes all the way to the national champion For him 287 00:13:51,320 --> 00:13:54,760 Speaker 3: National Championship, I should say since February tenth, BYU eleven 288 00:13:54,800 --> 00:13:56,800 Speaker 3: and one straight up only lost coming to Houston in 289 00:13:56,800 --> 00:13:59,920 Speaker 3: the Big twelve tournament. In that window, their ranks fourth 290 00:14:00,080 --> 00:14:03,480 Speaker 3: per Torvik and notably number one in the entire country 291 00:14:03,520 --> 00:14:05,800 Speaker 3: on the offensive end. Before that run, they were six 292 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:08,120 Speaker 3: and six in Big twelve play. They seems like just 293 00:14:08,160 --> 00:14:10,720 Speaker 3: an also ran in the Big Twelve, and a big 294 00:14:10,760 --> 00:14:12,680 Speaker 3: issue that they had offensively is that they were so 295 00:14:12,800 --> 00:14:15,440 Speaker 3: reliant on the perimeter shot. They shot so much better 296 00:14:15,760 --> 00:14:17,840 Speaker 3: in provo than they did on the road. And what 297 00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:20,240 Speaker 3: did they do during this twelve game run, Well, they 298 00:14:20,280 --> 00:14:23,200 Speaker 3: started attacking the hoop. They went from two hundred ninety 299 00:14:23,240 --> 00:14:26,120 Speaker 3: first in foul shot rate to cracking the top one seventy. 300 00:14:26,160 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 3: And while that may not sound all that impressive, when 301 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:30,680 Speaker 3: you balance it out with what they're able to do 302 00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:34,080 Speaker 3: offensively on the perimeter, it's really stabilized their scoring. So 303 00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,760 Speaker 3: no matter what you're doing against them defensively, it seems 304 00:14:36,800 --> 00:14:38,920 Speaker 3: like they're always scoring in the eighties. And now they're 305 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:41,120 Speaker 3: going to play in an Alabama team that, as we 306 00:14:41,160 --> 00:14:43,600 Speaker 3: all know, they're number one in tempo across all metrics. 307 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:45,680 Speaker 3: They're going to push the tempo, push the tempo, push 308 00:14:45,760 --> 00:14:48,640 Speaker 3: the tempo, and for most teams playing against Alabama, that 309 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:50,680 Speaker 3: pulls them out of their comfort zone. Not the case 310 00:14:50,720 --> 00:14:52,480 Speaker 3: with BYU By. You can win this game in the 311 00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,440 Speaker 3: eighties or nineties, which is a nice advantage for them 312 00:14:56,440 --> 00:14:58,800 Speaker 3: in terms of stylistic basketball. They can win in the 313 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 3: multitude of ways. And when you look at how they 314 00:15:00,880 --> 00:15:03,640 Speaker 3: handled the three up tempo teams in the Big Twelve, 315 00:15:03,800 --> 00:15:06,600 Speaker 3: that was UCF, Oklahoma State, and Arizona. They went three 316 00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:08,800 Speaker 3: and one straight up and three and one against the spread. 317 00:15:09,000 --> 00:15:11,120 Speaker 3: So I feel very confident I would take the points 318 00:15:11,160 --> 00:15:13,440 Speaker 3: here at four and a half or five, certainly take 319 00:15:13,440 --> 00:15:16,360 Speaker 3: the money line. I also think Alabama in terms of 320 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:18,680 Speaker 3: speeding teams up. You look at other teams that they 321 00:15:18,760 --> 00:15:22,000 Speaker 3: played that were up tempo in the SEC. They swept Kentucky. 322 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,720 Speaker 3: That was great, but they also got swept by the Gators. Now, 323 00:15:24,720 --> 00:15:27,240 Speaker 3: obviously this is elite competition, but as I mentioned at 324 00:15:27,280 --> 00:15:29,640 Speaker 3: the top, for the last six weeks, BYU has been 325 00:15:29,640 --> 00:15:32,960 Speaker 3: an elite top five ish kind of team. And then finally, 326 00:15:32,960 --> 00:15:34,960 Speaker 3: in terms of strategy, BYU is going to be able 327 00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:36,880 Speaker 3: to throw a little bit of zone at Bama. Their 328 00:15:36,880 --> 00:15:40,240 Speaker 3: top fifty, you know, rate zone defense in the entire country. 329 00:15:40,560 --> 00:15:42,600 Speaker 3: But that makes things interesting, and it brings in the 330 00:15:42,880 --> 00:15:45,520 Speaker 3: shot volume and the variance monster to a certain degree 331 00:15:45,600 --> 00:15:47,520 Speaker 3: because they're going to say, Bama, go ahead, shoot thirty 332 00:15:47,520 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 3: five threes. Now, if they make twelve plus, it's probably 333 00:15:50,320 --> 00:15:52,400 Speaker 3: the crimson tide. If they don't. If they you know, 334 00:15:52,600 --> 00:15:54,920 Speaker 3: make single digit triples, but they fire up that many, 335 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,680 Speaker 3: all of a sudden, the math and the defensive stops 336 00:15:57,680 --> 00:16:00,480 Speaker 3: start really working. In the Cougars. You know favor in 337 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:02,640 Speaker 3: that game, So in terms of the price, I think 338 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 3: that's the best you're going to do in terms of 339 00:16:04,400 --> 00:16:06,880 Speaker 3: an outright dog winning here in the sweet sixteen. What 340 00:16:06,920 --> 00:16:08,960 Speaker 3: are your thoughts on the matchup in terms of a 341 00:16:09,080 --> 00:16:11,560 Speaker 3: side between the Mormons and the Crimson side. 342 00:16:11,800 --> 00:16:14,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm with you. I'm a BYU guy. I honestly 343 00:16:14,720 --> 00:16:17,680 Speaker 2: wish the line was a little higher. I thought we 344 00:16:17,680 --> 00:16:18,920 Speaker 2: were going to get the five and a half of 345 00:16:19,000 --> 00:16:22,880 Speaker 2: Saint Mary's, but four and a half currently sitting there. Honestly, 346 00:16:22,960 --> 00:16:25,120 Speaker 2: I had considered the under. I just don't know if 347 00:16:25,120 --> 00:16:26,920 Speaker 2: I have the guts at the moment to do it, 348 00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:29,280 Speaker 2: and I kind of think till Thursday it's just gonna 349 00:16:29,280 --> 00:16:31,880 Speaker 2: get bet up. But you know, I would consider it 350 00:16:31,920 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 2: one seventy five and just so many things need to 351 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 2: go right for it to go over. But we've seen 352 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:38,160 Speaker 2: every Alabama game, so we get it. The other two 353 00:16:38,200 --> 00:16:42,480 Speaker 2: dogs interest me are Michigan and Arkansas. I'm a Texas 354 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,960 Speaker 2: Tech guy, but I just think Arkansas at five and 355 00:16:45,960 --> 00:16:48,280 Speaker 2: a half is an interesting number. I think the pace 356 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:50,760 Speaker 2: they run at is kind of interesting, and I think 357 00:16:50,840 --> 00:16:54,520 Speaker 2: Texas Tech sometimes can get into Lulls so and Michigan 358 00:16:54,880 --> 00:16:58,960 Speaker 2: is honestly is interested me, especially because Golden's played well. 359 00:16:59,040 --> 00:17:01,920 Speaker 2: I had Creighton. Turns out wasn't the right side, But 360 00:17:02,040 --> 00:17:04,159 Speaker 2: for a while it felt like, you know, I was 361 00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:07,560 Speaker 2: kind of onto something, and Auburn again hadn't looked great recently, 362 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,920 Speaker 2: even though playing much better competition. I just feel like, again, 363 00:17:11,119 --> 00:17:13,480 Speaker 2: seven and a half, it's a little high for me 364 00:17:13,520 --> 00:17:17,119 Speaker 2: in that game, especially considering Michigan's playing really really well lately. 365 00:17:17,600 --> 00:17:20,840 Speaker 2: So it's not something I would stay away from the 366 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:22,800 Speaker 2: other one. I think I like about BYU. Going back 367 00:17:22,800 --> 00:17:25,439 Speaker 2: to one nugget there, They've also really played well in 368 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:29,240 Speaker 2: kind of toss up games, so understood that this isn't 369 00:17:29,280 --> 00:17:32,280 Speaker 2: in that spot, but either as an underdog or favorite 370 00:17:32,280 --> 00:17:35,000 Speaker 2: of three points or less. Yeah, seven and one straight 371 00:17:35,080 --> 00:17:37,920 Speaker 2: up in ATS last eight games, So basically when they're 372 00:17:37,960 --> 00:17:39,920 Speaker 2: in the mix, I think it's a good number. So 373 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:42,720 Speaker 2: I'm interested there with BYU, with you in terms of. 374 00:17:42,680 --> 00:17:45,800 Speaker 3: The Arkansas Texas Tech matchup, and as I'll continue to 375 00:17:45,840 --> 00:17:47,600 Speaker 3: say for our audience, we're going to do the full 376 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 3: deep dive this week between Stuck, Greg Waddell, and myself. 377 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:53,480 Speaker 3: But when you just look at the coaching all of 378 00:17:53,520 --> 00:17:55,960 Speaker 3: a sudden in one weekend, and this happens very often 379 00:17:56,040 --> 00:17:59,240 Speaker 3: during March Madness. The narrative around Calipari having issues in 380 00:17:59,280 --> 00:18:02,640 Speaker 3: the tournament, having issues sometimes making in game adjustments. He's 381 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:05,359 Speaker 3: more of a roster creation management kind of guy. He 382 00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:07,479 Speaker 3: gets the kids in there, lets him play. You know, 383 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,359 Speaker 3: sometimes can make defensive adjustments, but on the offensive end, 384 00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,399 Speaker 3: if it's not working, it's not working. And then you 385 00:18:12,440 --> 00:18:14,800 Speaker 3: also look at the fact that Boogie Fland was out 386 00:18:15,119 --> 00:18:19,119 Speaker 3: Seemingly they played better, you know, addition by subtraction, but 387 00:18:19,200 --> 00:18:21,480 Speaker 3: then it reverses. He comes back to the lineup. There 388 00:18:21,600 --> 00:18:24,040 Speaker 3: was concerns how he would mesh someone who hasn't come 389 00:18:24,080 --> 00:18:26,280 Speaker 3: off the bench. I think they said since junior high, 390 00:18:26,320 --> 00:18:27,960 Speaker 3: and all of a sudden, he's playing, and it just 391 00:18:27,960 --> 00:18:30,399 Speaker 3: looks like a bonus for them. In terms of the 392 00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:33,800 Speaker 3: coaching and the Boogie Flanned element, how do you balance 393 00:18:33,840 --> 00:18:36,360 Speaker 3: those up against a Texas Tech coaching staff that has 394 00:18:36,440 --> 00:18:39,320 Speaker 3: really shown that their a depth at preparing for different 395 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:41,720 Speaker 3: kinds of teams, different looks on the defensive end throughout 396 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:43,680 Speaker 3: the entire season, particularly in Big twelve play. 397 00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:46,760 Speaker 2: I mean, I think the Flann play is good back 398 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:50,040 Speaker 2: into the lineup. My thing with Calipari is it's pretty simple. 399 00:18:50,359 --> 00:18:53,000 Speaker 2: I just trust him in this spot. Even though we've 400 00:18:53,040 --> 00:18:55,720 Speaker 2: seen Texas Tech have some sort of success in the 401 00:18:55,760 --> 00:19:00,000 Speaker 2: tournament at times, especially lately. I mean, their defense is very, 402 00:18:59,920 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 2: very very difficult to deal with. But I kind of 403 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:04,560 Speaker 2: like Arkansas size, and I also kind of think that 404 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:08,600 Speaker 2: the sec element here as getting points, especially you know, 405 00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:10,480 Speaker 2: five and a half, and I think that could go up. 406 00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:12,760 Speaker 2: I just think I trust cal a Pari in this 407 00:19:12,800 --> 00:19:15,800 Speaker 2: spot later in the tournament especially, and I have to 408 00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:17,440 Speaker 2: look into it a little bit more, but I do 409 00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:20,640 Speaker 2: think the prep time probably gives Cali PARTI a little 410 00:19:20,640 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 2: bit of an edge there, which I kind of like. 411 00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,520 Speaker 2: And I think making it out of this side of 412 00:19:25,560 --> 00:19:27,439 Speaker 2: the bracket and then having a week to kind of 413 00:19:27,480 --> 00:19:29,640 Speaker 2: set up for your next tournament, which is the way 414 00:19:29,720 --> 00:19:31,680 Speaker 2: all the coaches kind of deal with us, I think 415 00:19:31,720 --> 00:19:35,000 Speaker 2: has an advantage there. So that's one reason I would 416 00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,240 Speaker 2: point to Arkansas. But again I would, you know, probably 417 00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 2: just touch the five and a half. I think at 418 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,200 Speaker 2: the moment there's a chance it does get a little 419 00:19:42,280 --> 00:19:44,760 Speaker 2: higher as we're kind of talking here Monday morning Sunday night. 420 00:19:45,480 --> 00:19:50,399 Speaker 2: So but at least interest, at least initially, That's probably 421 00:19:50,440 --> 00:19:51,080 Speaker 2: where I would lean. 422 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:54,280 Speaker 3: Now, Stuck likes to say, there's different criteria that you 423 00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 3: can put out year over year. This is essentially the 424 00:19:56,960 --> 00:19:59,399 Speaker 3: grouping that the national champion will come out of. You 425 00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:03,199 Speaker 3: ken look at top twenty five offenses, top twenty five defenses, 426 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,479 Speaker 3: as well as do they have a star NBA player 427 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,000 Speaker 3: or at least one that projects well in the upcoming 428 00:20:09,080 --> 00:20:12,359 Speaker 3: NBA draft? Maryland, is there their top twenty five on 429 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,000 Speaker 3: both ends of the Florida Derek Queen just had his 430 00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:18,080 Speaker 3: legacy game. He hits the game winner against Colorado State. 431 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:21,200 Speaker 3: He was calling for the ball and Kevin Willard, who 432 00:20:21,480 --> 00:20:24,800 Speaker 3: until this run during March Madness, had certainly struggled to 433 00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,320 Speaker 3: rack up wins. I believe he entered with two career 434 00:20:27,600 --> 00:20:30,240 Speaker 3: NCAA tournament wins. Now, all of a sudden, he's matched 435 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 3: that in one tournament run. Where are you on the 436 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:35,919 Speaker 3: terps the Crab five to potentially continue this run and 437 00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:37,960 Speaker 3: upset Florida in the sweet sixteen. 438 00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:41,320 Speaker 2: I thought Florida was vulnerable when they looked when they 439 00:20:41,320 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 2: faced Yukon. I mean I tended to like the nine 440 00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:47,040 Speaker 2: and a half points and I just think Florida has 441 00:20:47,119 --> 00:20:50,359 Speaker 2: some cracks in them, and I think the line was 442 00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:53,600 Speaker 2: inflated against Yukon. Now I think this Maryland team kind 443 00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:55,760 Speaker 2: of got a scare, and I think that scare might 444 00:20:55,800 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 2: have done them well, as it tends to do. I 445 00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,000 Speaker 2: think that's something interesting to probably look at a little 446 00:21:01,000 --> 00:21:03,679 Speaker 2: bit of history, and I probably will behind. You know, 447 00:21:03,720 --> 00:21:05,840 Speaker 2: you can look at buzzer beaters, you can look at 448 00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:08,280 Speaker 2: close finishes, but I think a team like that and 449 00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:10,920 Speaker 2: I liked Maryland to potentially go to the Final four. 450 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,320 Speaker 2: I took them at like nine to one before they 451 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,800 Speaker 2: played this game, and I still got lucky there obviously 452 00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 2: to advance. But I think they have a chance against Florida. Now, 453 00:21:20,040 --> 00:21:22,920 Speaker 2: the line he actually has just started moving as we're 454 00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,320 Speaker 2: talking about this, as it just moved to six. So 455 00:21:25,800 --> 00:21:28,520 Speaker 2: it's at six right now, which is telling you that 456 00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,240 Speaker 2: Maryland has a shot here. I mean, it's not eight 457 00:21:31,240 --> 00:21:35,159 Speaker 2: and a half, it's not nine. So to me, I 458 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:37,240 Speaker 2: would have liked a bigger line. So I mean, in 459 00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 2: terms of the current bet on the game, I think 460 00:21:39,440 --> 00:21:41,760 Speaker 2: it's a little tough. I think you're probably right on there, 461 00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:44,760 Speaker 2: but I do like Maryland, you know, but I liked 462 00:21:44,840 --> 00:21:48,920 Speaker 2: Yukon and we got close, we just didn't finish. And 463 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:51,200 Speaker 2: you know, I think the line's probably right there. 464 00:21:51,560 --> 00:21:55,360 Speaker 3: Another random travel quirk to consider here. Maryland sent out 465 00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:57,960 Speaker 3: to Seattle to play. Now they're going to stay on 466 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,760 Speaker 3: the West Coast and play in San Francisco against you 467 00:22:00,800 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 3: know this, this Florida Gator team, whereas the Gators have 468 00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:06,439 Speaker 3: to travel across the country having played in Raleigh. Just 469 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:09,840 Speaker 3: an interesting thing to consider. You know how bodies acclimate, 470 00:22:10,040 --> 00:22:12,040 Speaker 3: you know, how they essentially can kind of settle in 471 00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,119 Speaker 3: a little bit to the West coast. We'll see if 472 00:22:14,160 --> 00:22:16,760 Speaker 3: that comes up at all. Certainly elements like that can 473 00:22:16,800 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 3: be overplayed, but you know, at least with two East 474 00:22:20,119 --> 00:22:22,720 Speaker 3: Coast teams, one already having the advantage and being the 475 00:22:22,800 --> 00:22:25,119 Speaker 3: underdog in terms of already being out there. Just something 476 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:28,760 Speaker 3: to consider. Any other matchups in the sweet sixteen of 477 00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,159 Speaker 3: the eight that caught your eye, even you know, an 478 00:22:31,200 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 3: angle on a total or player prop. 479 00:22:32,840 --> 00:22:35,600 Speaker 2: Perhaps Honestly, I just I'll go back to and I 480 00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:37,560 Speaker 2: said it before we went into the Reid, but Kentucky 481 00:22:37,640 --> 00:22:40,119 Speaker 2: Tennessee is gonna get a lot of look just for 482 00:22:40,200 --> 00:22:43,840 Speaker 2: the fact that Kentucky beat them twice now an underdog 483 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:45,439 Speaker 2: in the game. And I actually looked it up, so 484 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,960 Speaker 2: back to the seeding era, like nine seventy seventy eight, 485 00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:53,359 Speaker 2: there is no game with conference foes where one team 486 00:22:53,480 --> 00:22:56,000 Speaker 2: beat another team twice and then was listened as an 487 00:22:56,080 --> 00:23:00,720 Speaker 2: underdog in the tournament. So this is legitimately brand new 488 00:23:01,000 --> 00:23:04,200 Speaker 2: stuff here we are dealing with because Tennessee is better, 489 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:07,280 Speaker 2: but for some reason they couldn't figure out Kentucky this year. 490 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 2: So I think analyzing that matchup and figuring out is 491 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:14,479 Speaker 2: it worth the four and a half points is an 492 00:23:14,520 --> 00:23:17,800 Speaker 2: interesting factor, especially with you know, everyone talks about Barnes 493 00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:20,679 Speaker 2: doesn't cover well, he's one in one right now, So 494 00:23:20,720 --> 00:23:22,880 Speaker 2: we'll see how that goes. But yeah, lay in four 495 00:23:22,920 --> 00:23:25,000 Speaker 2: and a half again, so we will see. 496 00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:27,240 Speaker 3: Before we go, let's kick it over to Patrick Everson 497 00:23:27,240 --> 00:23:30,200 Speaker 3: from Vegas Insider for a quick market report in Las Vegas. 498 00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:32,440 Speaker 3: Now that the first weekend has wrapped, all. 499 00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,440 Speaker 6: Right, Michael fixed a lot wrapping up the four days 500 00:23:35,440 --> 00:23:37,840 Speaker 6: that was the first and second rounds of the NCAA 501 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:41,359 Speaker 6: Tournament and the NCAA Tournament, especially in those first two days, 502 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:43,560 Speaker 6: and it bleeds a little bit into the second two 503 00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,880 Speaker 6: days into the second round. But really so it's really 504 00:23:46,880 --> 00:23:49,199 Speaker 6: the case in those first two days. It's not like 505 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,040 Speaker 6: the NFL. If you get a whole bunch of favorites 506 00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,119 Speaker 6: coming through in the NFL on a Sunday, then the 507 00:23:54,119 --> 00:23:56,240 Speaker 6: public is going to do awesome in the sportsbooks are 508 00:23:56,280 --> 00:23:59,439 Speaker 6: going to take a bath. But the NCAA tournament, especially 509 00:23:59,480 --> 00:24:02,080 Speaker 6: those first couples, the public is looking for those trendy underdogs. 510 00:24:02,119 --> 00:24:04,960 Speaker 6: They're looking for the UC San Diegos, and they're looking 511 00:24:05,000 --> 00:24:07,640 Speaker 6: for the Drakes, and you know those types of teams, 512 00:24:07,680 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 6: the high points and so forth, and a couple of 513 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:12,040 Speaker 6: those teams that are right. Obviously, Drake did well and 514 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:14,720 Speaker 6: that was a great result for the public and the book. Definitely, 515 00:24:14,720 --> 00:24:16,720 Speaker 6: the books definitely took it on the chin there, both 516 00:24:16,720 --> 00:24:18,800 Speaker 6: here in Vegas and across the country because everybody was 517 00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:22,040 Speaker 6: on Drake. But generally speaking, the first two days, and 518 00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:24,840 Speaker 6: certainly were the first four days, the favorites have had 519 00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 6: a pretty decent tournament. At least straight up they may 520 00:24:28,280 --> 00:24:30,359 Speaker 6: not be covering all the spreads, but at least straight 521 00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:33,479 Speaker 6: up they're covering, so you know, betting money lines on 522 00:24:33,520 --> 00:24:37,720 Speaker 6: the on these trendy underdogs hasn't necessarily worked out over 523 00:24:37,760 --> 00:24:40,280 Speaker 6: the first two days and and you know a little 524 00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:42,440 Speaker 6: bit more of the first four days, so a good 525 00:24:42,480 --> 00:24:45,040 Speaker 6: couple of days for the books on Thursday and Friday 526 00:24:45,320 --> 00:24:47,920 Speaker 6: and even Saturday. I did here today from the super 527 00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,560 Speaker 6: Book here in Las Vegas and from betam Jam Properties 528 00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:53,320 Speaker 6: in Las Vegas that there was some give and take. 529 00:24:53,960 --> 00:24:56,040 Speaker 6: The public definitely got a little bit back today and 530 00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:57,879 Speaker 6: mainly how they did that as they started getting on 531 00:24:57,920 --> 00:25:00,920 Speaker 6: the favorites again like they would normally do for the NFL, and. 532 00:25:00,880 --> 00:25:03,080 Speaker 1: Like they didn't do for the first round of the 533 00:25:03,200 --> 00:25:04,119 Speaker 1: NCAA tournament. 534 00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:06,360 Speaker 6: But they started getting on the favorites via the money 535 00:25:06,400 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 6: line parlays, and the favorites were winning games. And like 536 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,359 Speaker 6: I said, they've won, you know, a good chunk of 537 00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:14,000 Speaker 6: games over the last few days, but they were winning 538 00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,320 Speaker 6: games throughout the day on Sunday, so moneyline parlays really 539 00:25:17,320 --> 00:25:19,120 Speaker 6: began to build up over the course of the day, 540 00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,320 Speaker 6: and the public cashed out on those. 541 00:25:22,359 --> 00:25:24,080 Speaker 1: So there was definitely some give back. 542 00:25:24,440 --> 00:25:26,919 Speaker 6: And I've got even just a I think a fresh 543 00:25:27,000 --> 00:25:30,240 Speaker 6: comment literally fresh just popped into my phone. Michael, how 544 00:25:30,280 --> 00:25:34,400 Speaker 6: about that from Rich Zenco at Caesars. I went back 545 00:25:34,400 --> 00:25:37,560 Speaker 6: and forth with rich zencho at Caesars several times over 546 00:25:37,600 --> 00:25:40,159 Speaker 6: the last few days, and he noted that the public 547 00:25:40,200 --> 00:25:43,160 Speaker 6: just can't get enough of the SEC and generally the 548 00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:47,480 Speaker 6: SEC has helped the public out overs cashing a lot 549 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:49,639 Speaker 6: of and you know in many late games that the 550 00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:52,320 Speaker 6: public spreads were cashing. So they did all right on 551 00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:57,000 Speaker 6: the betters did all right on that at Caesars today Sunday. 552 00:25:57,480 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 6: But I guess the best way to put it is 553 00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 6: was definitely kind. 554 00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 1: Of a lot of back and forth. 555 00:26:01,960 --> 00:26:04,480 Speaker 6: The books did pretty good the first two days, maybe 556 00:26:04,480 --> 00:26:06,520 Speaker 6: a bit of a wash Saturday, some back and forth, 557 00:26:06,520 --> 00:26:08,600 Speaker 6: and then give back from the books to the public 558 00:26:08,640 --> 00:26:10,720 Speaker 6: on Sunday via those moneyline parlies. 559 00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:12,440 Speaker 1: And again not just here in Las Vegas. 560 00:26:12,520 --> 00:26:15,080 Speaker 6: We've heard this from I'm hearing this now from Caesars nationally, 561 00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:19,680 Speaker 6: a little bit from BETAMGM nationally, and from Borgada Sportsbook, 562 00:26:19,680 --> 00:26:23,040 Speaker 6: which is a betam jam property in Atlantic City, which 563 00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:24,680 Speaker 6: actually said it, did you know, it might have done 564 00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:26,399 Speaker 6: a little bit better than most. They actually had a 565 00:26:26,440 --> 00:26:29,320 Speaker 6: decent Sunday. That's what I'm hearing from Tom Gable, which 566 00:26:29,359 --> 00:26:31,600 Speaker 6: is a little bit of the exception of the rule. Again, 567 00:26:31,600 --> 00:26:34,520 Speaker 6: those moneyline parlis really started adding up by the time 568 00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:36,960 Speaker 6: you got to Arizona wins that last game against Oregon, 569 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:38,200 Speaker 6: Arizona doesn't cover. 570 00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,320 Speaker 1: Doesn't matter moneyline parlay. 571 00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:43,280 Speaker 6: Arizona was the place so and the books generally need 572 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 6: Oregon in that game. And you know, that's kind of 573 00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:46,800 Speaker 6: how the whole day went. 574 00:26:46,880 --> 00:26:47,400 Speaker 2: All day long. 575 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,560 Speaker 6: They pretty much needed the underdogs in every game, and 576 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:52,760 Speaker 6: they needed one or two of those underdogs to jump 577 00:26:52,840 --> 00:26:57,240 Speaker 6: up and win outright, and that didn't really happen, you know, 578 00:26:57,280 --> 00:26:59,679 Speaker 6: with the possible exception of rule miss, but that was 579 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:01,760 Speaker 6: all one the underdogs they needed. That just turned out 580 00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:04,920 Speaker 6: to be an underdog that won, but not an underdog 581 00:27:05,000 --> 00:27:07,159 Speaker 6: necessarily the folks needed. They would have loved, you know, 582 00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:09,640 Speaker 6: Douke losing, sure, they would have taken that. They would 583 00:27:09,640 --> 00:27:12,080 Speaker 6: have loved to probably see Arizona lose tonight. There were 584 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:15,000 Speaker 6: a couple of weathers that were that were notable. So 585 00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 6: the public get gets some money back on on Sunday 586 00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:21,560 Speaker 6: and we head on to the Sweet sixteen and there 587 00:27:21,560 --> 00:27:24,159 Speaker 6: are numbers out for all the Sweet and sixteen games already, 588 00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,640 Speaker 6: and we've got some details on all of that in 589 00:27:27,640 --> 00:27:30,240 Speaker 6: my latest update at Vegas Insider dot com. So check 590 00:27:30,280 --> 00:27:33,160 Speaker 6: that out the March Madness Sweet sixteen odds and Action Report, 591 00:27:33,440 --> 00:27:36,560 Speaker 6: which will update all week long and through tip off 592 00:27:36,840 --> 00:27:38,600 Speaker 6: for all of these games on Thursday and Friday, and 593 00:27:38,680 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 6: then of course we'll roll into the Elite eight as we. 594 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,119 Speaker 1: Try to determine by next Sunday night who's in the 595 00:27:43,160 --> 00:27:43,800 Speaker 1: final four. 596 00:27:44,320 --> 00:27:47,320 Speaker 6: But again, decent few days for the sportsbooks, I would say, 597 00:27:47,560 --> 00:27:49,600 Speaker 6: generally picking I didn't hear the sportsbooks complain a lot, 598 00:27:49,600 --> 00:27:51,320 Speaker 6: but they said it was good, good, but not great. 599 00:27:51,440 --> 00:27:53,240 Speaker 6: I think good but not great is a great way 600 00:27:53,280 --> 00:27:57,000 Speaker 6: to summarize the last four days from the behind the 601 00:27:57,080 --> 00:27:59,600 Speaker 6: counter perspective, and the public will hope to come back 602 00:28:00,040 --> 00:28:03,200 Speaker 6: and reload when we get to the Sweet sixteen on Thursday. 603 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 3: That'll do it for this episode of the Big Bets 604 00:28:05,320 --> 00:28:07,639 Speaker 3: on Campus. My thanks to Evan for joining me, particularly 605 00:28:07,640 --> 00:28:09,919 Speaker 3: here in the wee hours of the night. We'll be 606 00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:12,040 Speaker 3: back on Tuesday evening with a look at the Sweet sixteen. 607 00:28:12,040 --> 00:28:14,439 Speaker 3: We'll also have two live shows this week filling up 608 00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:16,480 Speaker 3: all the player prop bets that you can put onto 609 00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 3: your card. Those will be on Wednesday at three pm 610 00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 3: and five thirty pm on Action Networks YouTube page as 611 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:24,680 Speaker 3: well as in the Action Network, you can go ahead 612 00:28:24,720 --> 00:28:27,119 Speaker 3: and track that. We'll have articles that will go ahead 613 00:28:27,280 --> 00:28:29,639 Speaker 3: and give you quick slips as well. Be sure to 614 00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:31,560 Speaker 3: subscribe to the podcast so you don't miss anything and 615 00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:34,080 Speaker 3: leave a five star review. Good luck with your bets 616 00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:35,920 Speaker 3: and all the you know work. You're gonna have to 617 00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,040 Speaker 3: do kind of balancing these options in the next seventy 618 00:28:39,080 --> 00:28:41,960 Speaker 3: two hours. Take a little breath. March Madness has more 619 00:28:42,040 --> 00:28:43,880 Speaker 3: on the way, but enjoy what we just have. 620 00:28:44,280 --> 00:28:53,960 Speaker 5: Cheers of course, shots and mad Scott Spusi, Betaza. 621 00:28:54,400 --> 00:28:58,000 Speaker 3: Bhow and so much. 622 00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:06,520 Speaker 4: Just keep cheering. Disappearing freshman with a hot hand shoots 623 00:29:06,560 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 4: and scores. 624 00:29:07,880 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 3: Fat slam marches. 625 00:29:12,600 --> 00:29:13,960 Speaker 1: Say you're prior. 626 00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:16,440 Speaker 3: Oh no, no mad go little madness in my eye, 627 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,120 Speaker 3: Set me out my moment jump. 628 00:29:18,920 --> 00:29:20,400 Speaker 4: Fat slim Arches. 629 00:29:30,400 --> 00:29:33,800 Speaker 6: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. 630 00:29:34,240 --> 00:29:37,040 Speaker 3: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem, 631 00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:39,959 Speaker 3: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight 632 00:29:40,080 --> 00:29:40,800 Speaker 3: hundred Gambler