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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us prout

2
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Speaker 1: read a lot? They're a running a gay so smoothe

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Speaker 1: so sweet, splendid.

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Speaker 2: Sisting just glorious text pcution, guys, all I'm looking for

5
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Speaker 2: is sixty percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

6
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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop of find good buddy, And

7
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Speaker 3: that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 1: Look at his movements. The most dangerous amount of the planet. Nobodytiction, the.

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Speaker 4: God shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 5: The one.

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Speaker 4: It's left to one.

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Speaker 2: The wide eyed drill bibeus, how old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello everybody, and welcome back to Wondergoal, the soccer betting

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Speaker 4: podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Lieba.

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Speaker 4: Joining me is always my colligue and friends Anthony de

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Speaker 4: Bundo and BJ Cunningham and gentlemen. A big week, big

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Speaker 4: weekend coming up. In the Premier League. The title race

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Speaker 4: is still on, the relegation battles still on, the race

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Speaker 4: for the top four is still on, and two teams,

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Speaker 4: one fighting for the title and one fighting for a

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Speaker 4: chance to break into the top four. Liverpool and Tottenham

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Speaker 4: is the headliner. Liverpool home favorites minus two twenty Spurs

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Speaker 4: coming back six to one at the current price of

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Speaker 4: the draw here is plus three ninety. I think a

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Speaker 4: lot of times you'll hear You've heard me say this

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Speaker 4: throughout the season. There are just some teams that when

27
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Speaker 4: they hit a certain number it you just should bet

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Speaker 4: them right, like they're Tottenham at six to one is

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Speaker 4: probably going to pay off those odds more than the

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Speaker 4: odds imply, and I think that's the case here. I'll

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Speaker 4: keep it simple. We've talked about this Liverpool team and

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Speaker 4: the things, the signals that are pointing that away from them.

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Speaker 4: This is their eleventh match in thirty five days. They've

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Speaker 4: been playing such stake soccer for basically since the new year.

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Speaker 4: There's just advanced to the Champions League final against Real Madrid.

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Speaker 4: At some point it's got to come undone. But I mean,

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Speaker 4: they keep proving me wrong. But I'm gonna try it again,

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Speaker 4: and this time with a really good team, maybe the

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Speaker 4: fourth best team in the league. So I'll take those

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Speaker 4: odds on Tottenham any day. So, Anthony, you're a Spurs fan.

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Speaker 4: Off the pot, you were saying you might like Liverpool

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Speaker 4: more than Spurs. You're having that internal debate you might

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Speaker 4: be jumping ship, it seems like. But do you see

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Speaker 4: a path to success here for Tottenham tipt Tottenham? They

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Speaker 4: were tip Tottenham on Sunday. I have never said that

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Speaker 4: I like Liverpool more than Spurs. I would never say that.

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Speaker 4: I just said I like Liverpool. I dislike Liverpool the

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Speaker 4: least of all the top six teams.

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Speaker 3: From a personal point of view, I project Liverpool minus

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Speaker 3: one ninety here they're sitting around minus two twenty. I

51
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Speaker 3: do show a little bit of value on the over

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Speaker 3: as well, but I'm gonna be targeting the both teams

53
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Speaker 3: to scoring over two and a half parlayed together minus

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Speaker 3: one oh five. I bet this the first time these

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Speaker 3: two teams played, and it was a pretty easy win.

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Speaker 5: Spurs dominated the match.

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Speaker 3: They three and a half expected goals, which is the

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Speaker 3: most anybody's put up on Liverpool this season. Then you

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Speaker 3: have to kind of put a little asterisk there because

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Speaker 3: one Van Dyke did not play. The midfield for Liverpool

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Speaker 3: was Moreton Milner and Cada, so no Thiago, no Fabinho,

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Speaker 3: no Henderson.

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Speaker 5: They had a COVID issue I think it was at.

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Speaker 3: The time, but Spurs also weren't playing, you know, their

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Speaker 3: best midfield. At the time, it might have been within

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Speaker 3: Dumbla Winks and then delhi Alli, but now, of course

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Speaker 3: we're expecting Hoyber, Benton Kerr to kind of hold down

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Speaker 3: the fort in the middle. So it really comes down

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Speaker 3: to Tottenham and how well they're able to exploit Liverpool's

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Speaker 3: high line, because we've seen there's been some cracks with Liverpool.

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Speaker 5: When teams have been able to get in behind.

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Speaker 3: They played a few teams where they completely dominated Newcastle

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Speaker 3: didn't really have a striker on.

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Speaker 5: The pitch for the first hour.

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Speaker 3: I thought that was a weird approach for medihow very

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Speaker 3: defensive kind of made it pretty easy for them, But

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Speaker 3: Liverpool also dominated that man and then we saw them

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Speaker 3: against via Real. They struggled when they got pressed, but

79
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Speaker 3: otherwise were otherwise, you know, pretty good control of the match.

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Speaker 3: So it really comes down to Kinge coming short, drawing

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Speaker 3: in the center backs, his ability to play with the

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Speaker 3: ball at his feet, turn send in Son, get the wingbacks.

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Speaker 3: In Kulaseevsky, I think that it's a pretty viable path.

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Speaker 3: I mean it may not come off, doesn't always come

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Speaker 3: off for Spurs, but when it does, I mean they're

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Speaker 3: a lethal transition attacking team, counterattacking team.

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Speaker 5: They can pick a part any defense in the world.

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Speaker 3: So I agree with Michael. I do think Spurs are

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Speaker 3: live here. I think they've got a good chance to

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Speaker 3: get a result.

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Speaker 5: Now. Historically they have not played well at Liverpool.

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Speaker 3: If you go back through the history, ask any Spurs fan,

93
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Speaker 3: it's been a lot of fluky losses, weird losses. They

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Speaker 3: went to anfield the year the last year and kind

95
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Speaker 3: of blew it and stoppage time, and then a couple

96
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Speaker 3: of years ago was the Albavero own goal and stoppage time,

97
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Speaker 3: and they've had some weird games there.

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Speaker 5: But overall, I.

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Speaker 3: Think Spurs are going to be in this match. I

100
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Speaker 3: do think it probably ends, you know, two to one,

101
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Speaker 3: three two to Liverpool. I think they're definitely the better side,

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Speaker 3: of course at home. But if I did have to

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Speaker 3: take a side, it would be Spurs plussble goal on

104
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Speaker 3: a quarter. But yeah, I'm taking the both teams to

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Speaker 3: score over two and a half here.

106
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Speaker 4: Something that I think I overlooked with Tottenham in terms

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Speaker 4: of like the big picture look at their entire season

108
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Speaker 4: is they're now up to fourth in the Premier League

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Speaker 4: in terms of creating expected goals and that includes obviously

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Speaker 4: there first what two or three months under Nuno, so

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Speaker 4: their offense has really start to gel or did start

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Speaker 4: to gel under Antonio Conte and it never really slowed down.

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Speaker 4: And we talked about how they were overperforming compared to

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Speaker 4: the x G for for quite a bit. So there

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Speaker 4: is always that to worry about.

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Speaker 1: But with Sown, with.

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Speaker 4: With Kine, there is always a path to success against

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Speaker 4: especially against Liverpool, a team that they do take risks

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Speaker 4: right like so, so Tottenham should have opportunities to CounterPunch here.

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Speaker 4: And like I said, when when you get a number

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Speaker 4: like this with a team that's good, you just you

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Speaker 4: just should take it. BJ anything for you here Reds Spurs.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm I'm dead on with the projection here. I

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Speaker 2: have minus twenty on Liverpool here at home. It's hard

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Speaker 2: because I agree that Tottenham definitely has the counter attacking

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Speaker 2: pieces to give Liverpool a lot of problems. But Tottenham

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Speaker 2: is also a team that doesn't provide much resistance their

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Speaker 2: bottom five and pass per defense action. They're near the

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Speaker 2: bottom in terms of high turnovers and like we saw,

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Speaker 2: what Virial was able to do was to take the

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Speaker 2: game right to them, press Liverpool force them into making

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Speaker 2: quick passes going forward and you know, eventually Liverpool got through,

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Speaker 2: but it caused them a lot of problems to begin with, with.

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Speaker 1: Totham not being able to do that.

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Speaker 2: It concerns me that they're going to get pinned in

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Speaker 2: for a large majority of this match. Now.

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Speaker 1: Again, like I already said, they.

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Speaker 2: Have the pieces to be able to hit them on

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Speaker 2: the counter, but I'm worried that Liverpool is just invincible.

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Speaker 2: Like we saw a little chink in the armor in

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Speaker 2: that first half. It was I was, I know, we're

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Speaker 2: all just really pumped up about via Real and then Liverpool.

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Speaker 2: Whatever the halftime talk was, whatever the conversation was, it

144
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Speaker 2: work because Viiel didn't have a shot for the entire

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Speaker 2: second half and Liverpool completely dominated the match. So we're

146
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Speaker 2: going on thirteen straight home wins for Liverpool around a

147
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Speaker 2: plus twenty seven expecting gold differential over that timeframe. Just

148
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Speaker 2: insane amount of dominance. And I mean, listen, they're healthy,

149
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Speaker 2: they can rotate. They've been doing it for a long

150
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Speaker 2: time now. I have some projected value on Liverpool minus

151
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Speaker 2: one and a half at plus one thirty. I have

152
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Speaker 2: their spread at minus one point four to four, So

153
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Speaker 2: I do have some value on Liverpool album to wait

154
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Speaker 2: on the market because the market is starting to take

155
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Speaker 2: down a little bit. Liverpool did open at minus two thirty,

156
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Speaker 2: so they're down about ten cents right now. We'll see

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Speaker 2: if the market comes back on top of little war.

158
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Speaker 2: But I will say this, I know the North London

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Speaker 2: Derby is next Thursday. I think in terms of steaks,

160
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Speaker 2: this is the highest stakes match maybe left on the

161
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Speaker 2: calendar for the Premier League season because whatever happens to

162
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Speaker 2: this match, whether it be a traw or whoever wins,

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Speaker 2: it almost eliminated. It's one of the other teams from

164
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Speaker 2: either the title race or the top four. So this

165
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Speaker 2: is about as big as it gets for Premier League

166
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Speaker 2: match this late in the season.

167
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Speaker 1: Yeah.

168
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Speaker 3: One more thing I'll add is that I understand, you know,

169
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Speaker 3: Spurs haven't faced the midfield of Thiago Henderson and Fabinho,

170
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Speaker 3: but I do think that there is that path that

171
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Speaker 3: you know, as much as I worry about the Spurs

172
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Speaker 3: back line, and I think they are due to concede

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Speaker 3: some more goals and they've run a little bit fortunate

174
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Speaker 3: under Conte. Generally when you look at the expected goals

175
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Speaker 3: versus expected goals against, or rather goals against versus expected

176
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Speaker 3: goals against. I do think Spurs have played well in

177
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Speaker 3: the matches against City. In the match against Liverpool, I

178
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Speaker 3: think that gives me some optimism for how they may

179
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Speaker 3: fare on Saturday. But yeah, I mean, obviously Spurs they

180
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Speaker 3: don't need to win it necessarily, but they definitely need

181
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Speaker 3: to get something out of this match. And of course

182
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Speaker 3: Liverpool need to win chasing City, and I don't know

183
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Speaker 3: that City are gonna even drop points. But now after today,

184
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Speaker 3: I mean, who knows where city of mindset is at.

185
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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think I was just writing it down an

186
00:09:00,320 --> 00:09:04,400
Speaker 4: interesting thing. Just to note Spurs Newcastle money line para

187
00:09:04,400 --> 00:09:06,640
Speaker 4: one hundred and four to one, if you want to

188
00:09:06,640 --> 00:09:09,400
Speaker 4: go that route and really bet that the soccer will

189
00:09:09,400 --> 00:09:11,640
Speaker 4: get out of control. All right, let's move out to

190
00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:14,800
Speaker 4: That's a twelve thirty pm kickoff on Saturday. I should

191
00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:16,679
Speaker 4: a note, So let's go to the ten am. There

192
00:09:16,760 --> 00:09:19,439
Speaker 4: is no early kickoff on Saturday morning for us here

193
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:22,679
Speaker 4: in the States, so instead we'll start with Brentford and

194
00:09:22,760 --> 00:09:25,559
Speaker 4: Southampton in this block. The BS plus one twenty five

195
00:09:25,600 --> 00:09:28,360
Speaker 4: at home Saints plus two twenty. The draw here is

196
00:09:28,360 --> 00:09:30,439
Speaker 4: plus two fifty. If you've been listening to this podcast,

197
00:09:30,440 --> 00:09:32,480
Speaker 4: you know we're about to say Brentford are a truck

198
00:09:32,520 --> 00:09:36,040
Speaker 4: when they're playing at home. So right away it does

199
00:09:36,520 --> 00:09:39,320
Speaker 4: seem like Brentford is probably the value side here. Do

200
00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,640
Speaker 4: have some concerns. It did seem like, you know, their

201
00:09:42,360 --> 00:09:46,000
Speaker 4: beautiful run of form has finally come to a stop

202
00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:48,920
Speaker 4: with a loss to Manchester United in which they weren't

203
00:09:49,000 --> 00:09:52,120
Speaker 4: very good. It was expecting better out of Thomas Frank's side,

204
00:09:52,679 --> 00:09:55,240
Speaker 4: but like you can't trust the Southampton team, especially at

205
00:09:55,240 --> 00:09:58,360
Speaker 4: this price on the road. So I'll be pride passing

206
00:09:58,360 --> 00:10:01,600
Speaker 4: on this one unless something Walcky happens.

207
00:10:02,080 --> 00:10:02,360
Speaker 1: BJ.

208
00:10:02,600 --> 00:10:05,200
Speaker 2: What about you, I'm happy to take Bredford at plus

209
00:10:05,200 --> 00:10:05,840
Speaker 2: one twenty five.

210
00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:06,960
Speaker 1: I do think there's some value on it.

211
00:10:07,040 --> 00:10:10,480
Speaker 2: Like on the surface, this match pretty much means nothing

212
00:10:10,679 --> 00:10:14,720
Speaker 2: to either side. They're both very comfortable, say from relegation.

213
00:10:15,160 --> 00:10:17,840
Speaker 2: But even though I know Brentford had a bad performance

214
00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,920
Speaker 2: on Monday, there's still the side that's in way better form.

215
00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:23,560
Speaker 2: In terms of these two plus two point nine expected

216
00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:26,120
Speaker 2: gold deffention in their last eight matches, averaging around one

217
00:10:26,160 --> 00:10:29,559
Speaker 2: point five. I expected goals four per match, while Southampton

218
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Speaker 2: over the last nine matches minus seven expected gold diffrenchal

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Speaker 2: and they're allowing one point seven to two expected goals

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Speaker 2: per match. That's just a trend with Southampton. I've already

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Speaker 2: mentioned it, one of the worst defenses over the second

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Speaker 2: half of the season in the Premier League one point

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Speaker 2: six eight expected goals allowed per match, and you already

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Speaker 2: mentioned it, Michael. It's the home road splits that we

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Speaker 2: talk about all the time with Brentford, but also with Southampton.

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Speaker 2: Brentford plus four point nine expected gold differential at home

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Speaker 2: Southampton away from the Saint Mary Stadium minus seven ze

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Speaker 2: point five expected gold differential. Brentford is also fantastic. I

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Speaker 2: don't think I don't think a lot of people know this.

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Speaker 2: They're fantastic at defending set piece. It's only around point

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Speaker 2: zero eight expectacle is allowed per set piece, which is

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Speaker 2: one of the best marks in the Premier League, which

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Speaker 2: is obviously huge against James word Prowse, who can just

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Speaker 2: completely flip a game on its head with his corners

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Speaker 2: and free kicks. So I have Branford at minus one thirteen,

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Speaker 2: so I like the value on them at plus one

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Speaker 2: twenty five.

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Speaker 4: Anthony, you riding with the Bees, a team that has

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Speaker 4: become near and dear to our heart here on this show.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I lean that way. I'm not quite sure I'm

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Speaker 3: going to play it, though. I do have a Saints

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Speaker 3: ticket that is now officially in sweat mode here under

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Speaker 3: forty four and a half I think it is, and

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Speaker 3: they're sitting at forty with three games to go here,

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Speaker 3: so I need a couple of results to go my way,

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Speaker 3: and not sure I want to keep adding because it

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Speaker 3: is a sizeable ticket. So I'm kind of not sure

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Speaker 3: how I'm playing this, but I do lean toward the Bees.

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Speaker 3: Like Bja mentioned, I think the interesting thing he mentioned

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Speaker 3: how good defensive Brentford is on set pieces, Well, one,

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Speaker 3: I'm not sure if it matters where Prous might just

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Speaker 3: like break every team.

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Speaker 5: You know, you just can't.

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Speaker 2: Yeah he did it to Brighton, who's also a fantastic

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Speaker 2: set piece defense, So I don't know, you know, but

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Speaker 2: it doesn't hurt to be good on set piece.

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Speaker 5: But Saints don't defend set piece as well.

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Speaker 3: They're right worst in the league in terms of allowing

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Speaker 3: goals off of set pieces, and that's a major problem

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Speaker 3: considering Brentford is one of the best at creating chances

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Speaker 3: off of them.

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Speaker 5: We even saw even in the United.

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Speaker 3: Defeat, a couple of their best chances came from set pieces,

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Speaker 3: including the one where you know, like Tony runs all

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Speaker 3: the way, it's like a football play. They draw out

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Speaker 3: the end around, Tony runs the end a round around

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Speaker 3: the group and they send the long ball and he

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Speaker 3: shanks the finish. But overall they do create a good

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Speaker 3: number of chances from those I make Branford plus one

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Speaker 3: oh five.

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Speaker 5: And really, from a stylistic.

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Speaker 3: Point of view, we have one defense who just doesn't

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Speaker 3: concede big scoring chances and we have one that concedes

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Speaker 3: a lot of them. And that's always a scary thought

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Speaker 3: if you were to try to back Southampton here. So

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Speaker 3: it's Bedford to nothing for me, but probably gonna end

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Speaker 3: up being nothing.

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Speaker 4: Another Saturday morning kickoff ten am Burnley plus two hundred

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Speaker 4: hosting aston Villa plus one forty. The draw here Sulus

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Speaker 4: two to thirty five. Of course Burnley came off a

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Speaker 4: huge comeback win the Mike Jackson effect. My god, that

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Speaker 4: team they whether the storm against Watford well in that

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Speaker 4: first half they should have been maybe two nothing. I

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Speaker 4: thought to the Hornets within like the first fifteen minutes

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Speaker 4: and then if you let this team hang around, they're

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Speaker 4: showing that they will, they'll punish you. And Burnley now

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Speaker 4: in thirty four points along with Leeds Everden two points

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Speaker 4: back in the last relegation spot, but have a game

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Speaker 4: in hand. We'll talk about that race a lot more later.

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Speaker 4: For here, Anthony, you've been talking for a while that

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Speaker 4: the time to sell Burnley was coming. Do you think

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Speaker 4: this is it?

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Speaker 3: I really thought it was it right, Like I looked

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Speaker 3: at this so I was like, yeah, like, they'll have

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Speaker 3: been really struggling. They've been playing well but not getting

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Speaker 3: any results. They finally got I mean, they finally did

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Speaker 3: get a result to be Norwich. Okay, I think it's

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Speaker 3: really moving the needle much.

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Speaker 5: But I mean they're like eighth best team under Gerrard

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Speaker 5: in the league, but they're sitting in thirteenth and they're

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Speaker 5: closer to like fifteen sixteenth than they are, you know,

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Speaker 5: under Jerrard in terms of return of points. So you

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Speaker 5: compare the expected results of Gerard and what they have

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Speaker 5: actually gotten and you're like, yeah, I've been pretty unlucky.

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Speaker 3: And you know, we'll see what happens with Bella this year.

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Speaker 3: It's gonna be really interesting team this summer. Do they

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Speaker 3: keep the tina blah blah blah. But in terms of

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Speaker 3: this match, I mean we have to sell Burnley at

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Speaker 3: this point, right, Like, have Burnley been that much better?

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Speaker 3: They've been better, and I you know, we were betting

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Speaker 3: them and betting their overs because they've clearly been more open.

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Speaker 3: But I also think they haven't played any team that

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Speaker 3: has been on the verge of or able to really

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Speaker 3: punish them for being more open. I mean Southampton, We've

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Speaker 3: talked about how much their set piece merchants. Then they

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Speaker 3: play Wolves, their attack is brutal, and then they get Watford,

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Speaker 3: who you know were up in that match until the

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Speaker 3: last ten minutes that we're the better side.

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Speaker 5: So I think this is the.

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Speaker 3: Point now where Burnley have won three straight matches where

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Speaker 3: they've been marginally better than their opponent in all three

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Speaker 3: they probably deserved.

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Speaker 5: Two wins out of that.

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Speaker 3: Like those performances, you know, you create four and a

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Speaker 3: half expected goals, you allow about three and a half.

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Speaker 3: You shouldn't win all three of those matches if we're

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Speaker 3: going you know, just on how this generally works. So

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Speaker 3: I'm gonna look to sell. But the numbers not there.

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Speaker 3: I mean I thought i'd get like a pick them,

330
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Speaker 3: but I got like one thirty on the draw o

331
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Speaker 3: bet line.

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Speaker 5: So just a lean to Villa for me. Burnley goes up.

333
00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:21,200
Speaker 3: I'm gonna look to live Bett Villa for sure, but yeah,

334
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Speaker 3: I know, no pregame play for me.

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Speaker 5: I thought this was it.

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Speaker 3: Maybe then they have they go to Todtenam, then they

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Speaker 3: go to Villa again, so we'll see how this goes.

338
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Speaker 3: But the market's still not giving enough respect to the

339
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Speaker 3: Clarets for me to fade them.

340
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Speaker 4: Yeah, and it's I think part of it is that

341
00:15:36,560 --> 00:15:41,120
Speaker 4: these the teams don't really know how to play against

342
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Speaker 4: this version of the Burnley team almost right, like they've

343
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Speaker 4: been playing against the same Burnley team for basically a

344
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Speaker 4: decade under Sean Deitsch, and just little things here or

345
00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:52,080
Speaker 4: there have changed a little bit to kind of throw

346
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Speaker 4: people up the scent. Nick Pope has been good, really

347
00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:59,160
Speaker 4: good since Jackson took over to so that's that's been

348
00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:02,560
Speaker 4: a heat to their success. The next game we'll talk

349
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Speaker 4: about is an interesting one because of the favorite involved.

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Speaker 4: Here's Chelsea my two seventy five hosting Wolves plus eight fifty.

351
00:16:09,640 --> 00:16:11,520
Speaker 4: The draw here is four to one. A couple of

352
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Speaker 4: things I've heard on just you know, mainstream soccer podcast

353
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Speaker 4: is there's a narrative surrounding Chelsea now that the sanctions

354
00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:22,800
Speaker 4: and the kind of weirdness of Roman Abramovich's situation.

355
00:16:22,480 --> 00:16:23,720
Speaker 1: Is affecting the team.

356
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Speaker 4: Perhaps, Yeah, it's getting into it, and I think that

357
00:16:26,960 --> 00:16:30,560
Speaker 4: it's starting to that could start to provide value in

358
00:16:30,920 --> 00:16:33,240
Speaker 4: a weird way on Chelsea and buying low because I

359
00:16:33,280 --> 00:16:35,280
Speaker 4: think people think that they're in a lot worse way

360
00:16:35,320 --> 00:16:36,160
Speaker 4: than they actually are.

361
00:16:37,160 --> 00:16:37,520
Speaker 1: They can't.

362
00:16:37,520 --> 00:16:39,800
Speaker 4: They're coming off a week where they drew United but

363
00:16:39,880 --> 00:16:43,240
Speaker 4: outplayed them and then they lost to Evert and this

364
00:16:43,320 --> 00:16:45,600
Speaker 4: Everden team. We'll touch on this later. I think we

365
00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:48,440
Speaker 4: need to treat evert in and Burnley almost as outliers

366
00:16:48,600 --> 00:16:51,720
Speaker 4: in terms of looking at like they're predictive metrics throughout

367
00:16:51,760 --> 00:16:53,360
Speaker 4: the season because of what's going on with them in

368
00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:57,920
Speaker 4: the relegation fight. So I do think that Chelsea here

369
00:16:58,640 --> 00:17:01,080
Speaker 4: is almost worth it, you know, adding as a moneyline

370
00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:03,840
Speaker 4: parlay piece or you know, backing on the spread because

371
00:17:04,440 --> 00:17:09,240
Speaker 4: Wolves has just shown nothing since they've hit forty points

372
00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,679
Speaker 4: and we're and then we're eliminated from really getting to

373
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Speaker 4: staying in the race for Europe. So they're only three

374
00:17:15,880 --> 00:17:19,160
Speaker 4: in their last three zero goals for, five goals against

375
00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:22,119
Speaker 4: and a one point four to three expectacles for total

376
00:17:22,200 --> 00:17:24,840
Speaker 4: over those three games five point six two against. They

377
00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:26,879
Speaker 4: just don't look they're on the beach, you know, Like

378
00:17:26,920 --> 00:17:28,840
Speaker 4: I think with some teams that that is that narrative

379
00:17:29,040 --> 00:17:31,840
Speaker 4: is overstated. With Wolves, it doesn't seem to be the case.

380
00:17:32,119 --> 00:17:35,880
Speaker 4: So I think Chelsea roles here. And I usually don't

381
00:17:36,359 --> 00:17:38,679
Speaker 4: like laying with big favorites, but I don't mind Chelsea

382
00:17:38,800 --> 00:17:41,480
Speaker 4: as a parlay piece. You can maybe look down the

383
00:17:41,520 --> 00:17:46,040
Speaker 4: board with me Pristal Palace Arsenal as the second piece,

384
00:17:46,680 --> 00:17:49,360
Speaker 4: but yeah, I'll be looking towards Chelsea here, BJ What

385
00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:49,720
Speaker 4: about you.

386
00:17:49,840 --> 00:17:52,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm actually really close to playing Chelsea as well. Yeah,

387
00:17:52,720 --> 00:17:55,840
Speaker 2: and one has to do with Wolves than Chelsea. I mean,

388
00:17:55,920 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 2: Chelsea is very comfortably in third place. It's not a

389
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,480
Speaker 2: guarantee right now, like they could still slip back into

390
00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,800
Speaker 2: the top four race. It's very unlikely at this point.

391
00:18:04,840 --> 00:18:09,080
Speaker 2: But Wolves' last four matches have allowed nine point or

392
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,639
Speaker 2: last five matches have allowed nine point four expected goals

393
00:18:12,680 --> 00:18:18,080
Speaker 2: to Leeds, Aston Villa, Newcastle, Burnley, and Brighton, and over

394
00:18:18,119 --> 00:18:21,480
Speaker 2: those five matches they have only created it looks like

395
00:18:21,560 --> 00:18:24,320
Speaker 2: around two point five expected goals.

396
00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:26,719
Speaker 1: It's bad right now for Wolves.

397
00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:30,920
Speaker 2: They it was never that good, but they've only created

398
00:18:30,960 --> 00:18:36,160
Speaker 2: over one expected goal once in their last nine matches.

399
00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,000
Speaker 1: It's really bad now.

400
00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,399
Speaker 2: This match when they met the first time, if anybody

401
00:18:41,480 --> 00:18:45,280
Speaker 2: remembers it, it was incredibly foggy. It was a very sleepy,

402
00:18:45,480 --> 00:18:47,840
Speaker 2: zero zero draw. Not a lot was created on either end.

403
00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,359
Speaker 2: Chelsea was coming off of a Champions League match in

404
00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:52,320
Speaker 2: the midweek, so it was a weird spot for them.

405
00:18:52,359 --> 00:18:53,959
Speaker 1: But I agree with you, Michael.

406
00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,600
Speaker 2: Given the fact that Chelsea is not out of the

407
00:18:56,640 --> 00:18:59,040
Speaker 2: woods yet they still have to win to secure that

408
00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:03,040
Speaker 2: third place spot. I think this is very very important

409
00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,760
Speaker 2: for them. So you know, I'm actually getting pretty close.

410
00:19:06,280 --> 00:19:08,040
Speaker 2: I need you know, minus one and a half at

411
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:10,240
Speaker 2: plus one twenty five or better would be good enough

412
00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:11,840
Speaker 2: for me to get three and a half percent values.

413
00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:14,080
Speaker 1: So I'm definitely leading towards Chelsea with you.

414
00:19:14,600 --> 00:19:16,959
Speaker 4: It's not not a bad like Chase that minus two

415
00:19:17,000 --> 00:19:18,520
Speaker 4: and a half kind of game either, because it does.

416
00:19:18,640 --> 00:19:20,920
Speaker 2: It does just feel like Als is just going to

417
00:19:20,960 --> 00:19:23,240
Speaker 2: sit in and Chelsea's going to create three and a half.

418
00:19:23,280 --> 00:19:25,560
Speaker 2: Expected goals just matter if the shots.

419
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:27,439
Speaker 4: Are gonna go And and you know what, Jordan Pickford

420
00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:31,879
Speaker 4: won't be playing a goal for wolvese Will Michael.

421
00:19:32,160 --> 00:19:34,600
Speaker 5: Yeah, jose Saw might be the greatest goalie of all time.

422
00:19:34,800 --> 00:19:37,679
Speaker 4: Yeah, well I think Pickford took that title from the

423
00:19:37,720 --> 00:19:40,200
Speaker 4: other day Anthony edything here Chelsea and Wolves.

424
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,840
Speaker 3: Yeah, Chelsea two point two post shot expected goals did

425
00:19:42,920 --> 00:19:45,080
Speaker 3: not score against Everton, So shout out to Pickford for that.

426
00:19:45,080 --> 00:19:48,560
Speaker 3: That's an impressive performance a statue. Also, if you remember

427
00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:51,840
Speaker 3: from last week's pod, you know the Brighton I didn't

428
00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:54,120
Speaker 3: I didn't bet the team total overs after I talked

429
00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 3: about them on the pod over two and a half

430
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:58,679
Speaker 3: was plus seven ten the third goal went in.

431
00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:01,000
Speaker 5: I just I just my phone onto the bed. I

432
00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,400
Speaker 5: was like, you gotta be kidding me. This was oh man.

433
00:20:04,520 --> 00:20:08,720
Speaker 5: But anyway, Yeah, I mean Wolves are seventeenth and expected

434
00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:12,359
Speaker 5: goal difference like on Earth too, where jose Saw just

435
00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,440
Speaker 5: has like a mediocre season and teams just like don't

436
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:18,120
Speaker 5: miss all their chances against Wolves, Like we're talking about

437
00:20:18,119 --> 00:20:20,000
Speaker 5: Wolves in a relegation battle here, and it's.

438
00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 4: Funny to say that's like I think they're gonna be

439
00:20:21,320 --> 00:20:23,120
Speaker 4: a popular relegation bet next year.

440
00:20:23,480 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 2: I mean we're gonna have all the unders, right, I

441
00:20:25,600 --> 00:20:27,520
Speaker 2: mean yeah, they're probably gonna.

442
00:20:27,240 --> 00:20:29,240
Speaker 5: Be their aging squad too, I.

443
00:20:29,200 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 1: Mean seven to one for relegation.

444
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:33,920
Speaker 5: No, I think they'll be somewhere in there more than that.

445
00:20:34,359 --> 00:20:35,439
Speaker 1: I mean the top a you finished.

446
00:20:35,440 --> 00:20:38,399
Speaker 2: You got to think that they're gonna be a little overpriced.

447
00:20:38,280 --> 00:20:40,239
Speaker 5: Right right, I'm thinking they might be like nine to ten.

448
00:20:40,600 --> 00:20:42,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, I think I think they're either way. I

449
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 4: think they're just they're gonna be the They're gonna be

450
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:46,639
Speaker 4: the team that I think everyone's gonna say as the

451
00:20:47,040 --> 00:20:49,720
Speaker 4: dark horse that perhaps the third team in with with

452
00:20:49,720 --> 00:20:52,320
Speaker 4: with Fulham and born with yeah this year is Lester

453
00:20:52,840 --> 00:20:53,240
Speaker 4: right right.

454
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:56,560
Speaker 2: The good news is we have a very short offseason,

455
00:20:56,800 --> 00:20:59,480
Speaker 2: so we'll be able to talk about them in July. Yeah.

456
00:20:59,520 --> 00:21:01,399
Speaker 3: So you know, Chelsea team total over two and a

457
00:21:01,440 --> 00:21:04,679
Speaker 3: half is plus one seventy five here. That's just not

458
00:21:04,680 --> 00:21:07,240
Speaker 3: good enough for me. If it got to like twenty five,

459
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 3: then I'd did in. But that's just not what I

460
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:10,960
Speaker 3: want and that's the only place I really look here.

461
00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna probably pass this match. Although I don't

462
00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 3: hate the idea of putting into moneyline parlay, like you

463
00:21:16,080 --> 00:21:18,680
Speaker 3: said Chelsea, Like, yes, they only have one win in

464
00:21:18,680 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 3: their last four matches, but I thought they were mostly

465
00:21:20,600 --> 00:21:22,760
Speaker 3: fine in all the matches. Yeah, they just kind of

466
00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 3: got soccered and like they had been due for a

467
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:26,520
Speaker 3: couple of those.

468
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, and situationally too, Like it's just you're talking about

469
00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:33,120
Speaker 4: some some a really tricky kind of one two step

470
00:21:33,280 --> 00:21:37,359
Speaker 4: in the Northwest with Manchester United who needed to stop

471
00:21:37,400 --> 00:21:39,159
Speaker 4: the bleeding and then ever did who are fighting for

472
00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:42,560
Speaker 4: their lives and we'll talk about them later on. A

473
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:45,240
Speaker 4: team that isn't fighting for their lives anymore. Is Watford

474
00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:48,440
Speaker 4: there plus four seventy five traveling to Crystal Palace minus

475
00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,960
Speaker 4: one sixty five. The draw here is three ten. This

476
00:21:51,080 --> 00:21:53,719
Speaker 4: is another ten am kickoff. In a weird kind of

477
00:21:54,200 --> 00:21:57,879
Speaker 4: narrative thing. Last last weekend we saw Norwich get officially relegated,

478
00:21:57,960 --> 00:22:00,800
Speaker 4: Dean Smith relegated by the team that canned him, and

479
00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,960
Speaker 4: now we could see Roy Hodgson get relegated by his

480
00:22:04,040 --> 00:22:08,120
Speaker 4: former team Crystal Palace. If Watford comes away rough out

481
00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,640
Speaker 4: of that Palace match, they won't they'll be officially back

482
00:22:11,720 --> 00:22:15,000
Speaker 4: down into the Championship. I think the numbers is probably

483
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:17,639
Speaker 4: inflated on Crystal Palace here, but like Brentford, it's the

484
00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 4: same kind of thing. They're just so good at home

485
00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,400
Speaker 4: and they've also just they've looked better on the road too.

486
00:22:22,480 --> 00:22:25,560
Speaker 4: They've allowed one point zero five expectacles or less in

487
00:22:25,800 --> 00:22:29,119
Speaker 4: five straight matches and the teams they played are not

488
00:22:29,240 --> 00:22:33,320
Speaker 4: you know, cupcakes, Leeds, Leicester, Saints, Arsenal and Newcastle of

489
00:22:33,320 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 4: course leads you know. They they're the favorite to get

490
00:22:35,560 --> 00:22:38,480
Speaker 4: relegated between the three teams Burnley, Everton and Leeds now,

491
00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:41,520
Speaker 4: but their offense can still produce and then the other

492
00:22:41,560 --> 00:22:45,879
Speaker 4: teams are all between fourth and twelfth or so thirteenth.

493
00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:48,960
Speaker 4: So it's been an impressive season and an impressive performance

494
00:22:48,960 --> 00:22:51,000
Speaker 4: from Palace. The team that I don't think you can

495
00:22:51,040 --> 00:22:53,280
Speaker 4: buy into the narrative of being on the beach and

496
00:22:53,359 --> 00:22:56,679
Speaker 4: Watford likely this is you know, they their cup final

497
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 4: was last week against Burnley and they lost after being

498
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:02,439
Speaker 4: up one, you know, with not much time left. So

499
00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:05,560
Speaker 4: I'm thinking about Palace as the second leg in that

500
00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 4: Chelsea money line parlay, but I just haven't decided yet.

501
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:12,040
Speaker 4: But it's it's Palace or nothing for me here, it's

502
00:23:12,119 --> 00:23:14,240
Speaker 4: it's tough to back to Swatford team, no matter if

503
00:23:14,240 --> 00:23:17,600
Speaker 4: it's at home or on the road BJ anything.

504
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think this is going to be a very

505
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:24,360
Speaker 2: sleepy type match, maybe a Crystal Palace one zer win.

506
00:23:24,520 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 1: I mean Crystal Palace.

507
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:28,960
Speaker 2: You could say they have nothing left to play for,

508
00:23:29,160 --> 00:23:31,400
Speaker 2: but they're one of these teams alongside with Brentford, where

509
00:23:31,440 --> 00:23:35,080
Speaker 2: finishing inside the top ten, especially in Patrick Bira's first season,

510
00:23:35,160 --> 00:23:36,160
Speaker 2: I think would actually.

511
00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:39,000
Speaker 1: Mean a lot to their club. And I mean Wawford.

512
00:23:39,000 --> 00:23:41,680
Speaker 2: I don't know if it's not official yet they've been relegated,

513
00:23:41,720 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 2: but it's once this round of match is over, they

514
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:47,879
Speaker 2: will be relegated. But we've mentioned that they've been criminally

515
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 2: underrated under Roy Hodgson, especially defensively, only you know, they've

516
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 2: allowed twenty nine goals off of twenty two expected in

517
00:23:55,359 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 2: his fourteen.

518
00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:56,640
Speaker 1: Matches in charge.

519
00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:58,679
Speaker 2: So they're still allowing, you know, a lot of chances,

520
00:23:58,680 --> 00:24:02,280
Speaker 2: but just not as much as teams have scored against them, essentially,

521
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:06,600
Speaker 2: But Krystal Palace not really that great of an offense,

522
00:24:06,680 --> 00:24:10,520
Speaker 2: only only averaging one point zero six non penalty expected

523
00:24:10,520 --> 00:24:12,560
Speaker 2: goals per match this year, which is thirteenth in the

524
00:24:12,560 --> 00:24:14,800
Speaker 2: Premier League. You know, we talk about it all the time.

525
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:17,800
Speaker 2: Crystal Palace one of the best defensive teams in the

526
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,720
Speaker 2: Premier League outside of the top three teams up there.

527
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:24,120
Speaker 2: I mean, they're only allowing little over one non penalty

528
00:24:24,160 --> 00:24:26,600
Speaker 2: expected goals per match, which is fourth in the Premier League.

529
00:24:27,000 --> 00:24:29,560
Speaker 2: Gets even better at home sixteen expected goals allowed in

530
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,879
Speaker 2: seventeen matches at Selhurst Park. They also press at the

531
00:24:32,880 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 2: third highest rate in the Premier League and Watford is

532
00:24:36,160 --> 00:24:40,080
Speaker 2: dead last by playing through pressure. I love both teams

533
00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:42,560
Speaker 2: to score no which is currently at minus one fifteen

534
00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:46,160
Speaker 2: Crystal Palace. They're the both teams to score no champion

535
00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 2: of the Premier League season, and only nine of their

536
00:24:49,600 --> 00:24:52,960
Speaker 2: thirty four matches have both teams created at least one

537
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:55,640
Speaker 2: expected goal. I have the both team to score no

538
00:24:55,800 --> 00:24:59,199
Speaker 2: line projected at minus one fifty four, So I like

539
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,040
Speaker 2: the value on minus one fifteen.

540
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:05,840
Speaker 4: Anthony anything here the Roy Hodgson derby.

541
00:25:06,440 --> 00:25:08,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, it's kind of funny because Palace should

542
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,560
Speaker 3: have been relegated last year with Hodgeon they were one

543
00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:14,480
Speaker 3: of the three worst teams easily, and Hodgson seems to

544
00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:17,080
Speaker 3: have used up all of his luck because now they

545
00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:21,480
Speaker 3: have been unlucky. Like Bjay said, since January first, they've

546
00:25:21,520 --> 00:25:24,919
Speaker 3: conceded about one and a quarter goals XG per ninety.

547
00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 3: They're allowing about one point nine goals since then.

548
00:25:29,600 --> 00:25:30,200
Speaker 5: That's insane.

549
00:25:30,720 --> 00:25:32,480
Speaker 3: The defense has really not been that bad and Pallas

550
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:34,160
Speaker 3: has struggled to break down the lower to your side.

551
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 5: We've seen that, so that in the Leeds match, we've

552
00:25:36,119 --> 00:25:36,600
Speaker 5: seen them.

553
00:25:37,280 --> 00:25:39,679
Speaker 3: I only project two point two four goals here and

554
00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:42,520
Speaker 3: Palas is only allowing about point eight nine expected goals

555
00:25:42,520 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 3: at home this season. So really all signs point to

556
00:25:45,080 --> 00:25:46,359
Speaker 3: the under. I'm going to take the under two and

557
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:46,760
Speaker 3: a half.

558
00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,960
Speaker 4: Now we'll talk about Brighton in Manchester United. Brighton home

559
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:54,440
Speaker 4: under ducks to United plus one eighty five insane. Yeah,

560
00:25:54,480 --> 00:25:56,360
Speaker 4: the Red Devil's coming back at plus what fifty five?

561
00:25:56,359 --> 00:25:58,560
Speaker 4: The drought here is plus two forty. I mean United

562
00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 4: looked good against Brentford and the of course they got

563
00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:03,440
Speaker 4: the drop a couple of days before that against Chelsea.

564
00:26:03,840 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 4: Had things not gone their way, I think these odds

565
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 4: would be flipped. We'd see Brighton as a home favorite

566
00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:14,320
Speaker 4: over mighty mighty Manchester United. Thankfully, United did get through

567
00:26:14,320 --> 00:26:16,720
Speaker 4: those two games relatively well, and now we get to

568
00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,399
Speaker 4: bet against them here at a good number on a

569
00:26:18,440 --> 00:26:21,520
Speaker 4: team that looks to be back and forth. Man Brighton,

570
00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:25,560
Speaker 4: they are doing brightened things once again. After that was

571
00:26:25,600 --> 00:26:29,640
Speaker 4: a six match losing streak in the dog days there

572
00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,920
Speaker 4: of the late winter. So it's a pretty easy one

573
00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,240
Speaker 4: for me. Here give me the Seagulls. BJA. You're wearing

574
00:26:36,240 --> 00:26:38,560
Speaker 4: your Brighton kit. I think you're going to be on them.

575
00:26:38,520 --> 00:26:40,160
Speaker 1: Right yeah, wearing the Brighton kit.

576
00:26:40,359 --> 00:26:42,520
Speaker 2: If you're watching the YouTube right now, you'll be able

577
00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 2: to see it. If you're not, go subscribe to you

578
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:49,280
Speaker 2: two right now. Okay, yeah, love love Brighton. I mean

579
00:26:49,320 --> 00:26:51,520
Speaker 2: you talk about the fantastic form since the beginning of

580
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:55,920
Speaker 2: April plus three expectacle differential with a schedule that's included

581
00:26:56,040 --> 00:27:00,320
Speaker 2: Arsenal Tottenham and Manchester City Manchester United over there exact

582
00:27:00,359 --> 00:27:03,480
Speaker 2: same timeframe minus two point one expected goal the French one,

583
00:27:03,520 --> 00:27:06,240
Speaker 2: allowing around one and a half expected goals per match.

584
00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 2: The last time these two teams met was maybe one

585
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,399
Speaker 2: and more frustrating matches of the season. Similar to like

586
00:27:11,400 --> 00:27:15,600
Speaker 2: the Brentford Manchester United match, Brighton completely dominated the first

587
00:27:15,640 --> 00:27:17,680
Speaker 2: half of that at Old Trafford. They want to expect

588
00:27:17,760 --> 00:27:21,160
Speaker 2: goals point eight to point four. They outshot United eight

589
00:27:21,200 --> 00:27:25,560
Speaker 2: to two, and then second half starts Runaldo scores from

590
00:27:25,560 --> 00:27:28,240
Speaker 2: outside the box and then Lewis Dunk gets a red

591
00:27:28,240 --> 00:27:30,520
Speaker 2: card four minutes later, and the match just could completely

592
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,320
Speaker 2: get slipped on its head. I remember, I'm pretty sure

593
00:27:33,359 --> 00:27:36,199
Speaker 2: I had Brighton plus one and Bruno Fernandez scored in

594
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:39,879
Speaker 2: the ninety seventh minute to cost me a push there.

595
00:27:40,160 --> 00:27:42,440
Speaker 1: So that was not fun. But we talk about it

596
00:27:42,480 --> 00:27:42,800
Speaker 1: a lot.

597
00:27:42,960 --> 00:27:46,359
Speaker 2: Brighton's ability to control possession and play through pressure is

598
00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:49,240
Speaker 2: so crucial when they're playing bigger sides, and given how

599
00:27:49,280 --> 00:27:51,880
Speaker 2: bad United have been in terms of pressing and ball

600
00:27:51,920 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 2: control under Ragnik, I mean their twelfth in the Premier

601
00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:57,040
Speaker 2: League since he took over and passes per defensive action.

602
00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,520
Speaker 2: Now they're going against the fourth best teams in terms

603
00:27:59,520 --> 00:28:02,840
Speaker 2: of average possession and offensive pass per defensive action.

604
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:06,520
Speaker 1: This is a no brainer. Brighton, John O'll bett even.

605
00:28:06,280 --> 00:28:09,399
Speaker 2: Money at home against a United squad that has nothing

606
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,199
Speaker 2: to play for. I mean they literally have nothing to

607
00:28:11,200 --> 00:28:14,160
Speaker 2: play for. It's two matches left, they're both on the road.

608
00:28:14,560 --> 00:28:16,719
Speaker 2: I can't imagine United getting up for this match. Well,

609
00:28:16,720 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 2: Brighton top ten finished would be the highest ever finished

610
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 2: for the club, so very very important to them.

611
00:28:21,880 --> 00:28:23,480
Speaker 1: So yeah, Brighton, John A betted it.

612
00:28:23,480 --> 00:28:26,439
Speaker 4: Even money, Anthony, Are you coming with us here to

613
00:28:26,520 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 4: the South Coast on the Brighton bandwagon?

614
00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 1: Of course?

615
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:33,480
Speaker 3: I mean you know, Brighton has a chance here to

616
00:28:33,480 --> 00:28:35,000
Speaker 3: get in the top ten. Like BJ said, they have

617
00:28:35,040 --> 00:28:37,120
Speaker 3: a chance to cash our forty five and a half overs,

618
00:28:37,280 --> 00:28:39,560
Speaker 3: which we're hoping to get in. We need two more points.

619
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:42,080
Speaker 3: But really, I mean BJ mentioned it. I make them

620
00:28:42,080 --> 00:28:45,720
Speaker 3: a favorite here. I've got United slightly better factor in

621
00:28:45,760 --> 00:28:49,120
Speaker 3: home field. Brighton should be favored, they're not. That's enough

622
00:28:49,120 --> 00:28:51,600
Speaker 3: for me to play it, especially with the Seagulls. I

623
00:28:51,600 --> 00:28:53,640
Speaker 3: show value on them more often than not, and I

624
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 3: bet them each of their last five matches I believe.

625
00:28:57,080 --> 00:28:59,040
Speaker 4: So I have to make it six, baby. I just

626
00:28:59,040 --> 00:29:02,560
Speaker 4: one thing to was that last season great in the

627
00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:05,360
Speaker 4: beginning of the year when least two this fixture took place, right,

628
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,160
Speaker 4: it was the Brighton home match against United that crazy

629
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:10,840
Speaker 4: crazy crazy.

630
00:29:10,240 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 5: United won the game after full time it's right before.

631
00:29:12,880 --> 00:29:15,480
Speaker 4: And yeah, so that was that was a fun one.

632
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 3: Brought the players back out to do the var gave

633
00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:19,320
Speaker 3: the penalty to United.

634
00:29:19,320 --> 00:29:20,840
Speaker 5: Brighton also at the post like eight posts.

635
00:29:20,880 --> 00:29:22,920
Speaker 4: Yeah, there's a post one hundred posts in that game.

636
00:29:22,960 --> 00:29:25,880
Speaker 4: So what I'm trying to say is there's some good

637
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 4: karma coming Brighton's way in this in this fixture here,

638
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,320
Speaker 4: let's move to Sunday. Now, like I said, no early

639
00:29:31,720 --> 00:29:34,920
Speaker 4: kickoff on Saturday, starts at ten am. Then the twelve

640
00:29:34,920 --> 00:29:37,800
Speaker 4: thirty match between Liverpool and Spurs, and now a bunch

641
00:29:37,880 --> 00:29:41,360
Speaker 4: of good games on Sunday too. Arsenal minus two thirty,

642
00:29:41,800 --> 00:29:45,920
Speaker 4: trying to keep Tottenham at touching distance. Here they're taking

643
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,960
Speaker 4: on Leeds who are plus five thirty. The draw is

644
00:29:48,960 --> 00:29:52,200
Speaker 4: plus three eighty. Let's set up the relegation battle for

645
00:29:52,280 --> 00:29:56,160
Speaker 4: you here. This match is taking place in London at Arsenal.

646
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,640
Speaker 4: So Leeds thirty four points with four games remaining, Burnley

647
00:29:59,640 --> 00:30:02,719
Speaker 4: thirty f four points four games remaining, Everton thirty two

648
00:30:02,800 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 4: points with five games remaining. Leads. Also their goal differential

649
00:30:05,960 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 4: like it won't, it won't come into play. They have

650
00:30:07,640 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 4: the worst. They're gonna have the worst goal differential among

651
00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:12,959
Speaker 4: these three teams. So they can't finish tied with whoever

652
00:30:13,000 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 4: finishes with them, is what I'm trying to say. They'll

653
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:17,800
Speaker 4: lose a tie breaker. So they're now the favorites to

654
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:22,520
Speaker 4: go down plus one sixty Everton plus one ninety Burnley

655
00:30:22,520 --> 00:30:24,320
Speaker 4: plus two twenty five. So in other words, it is

656
00:30:24,360 --> 00:30:27,959
Speaker 4: like it's it's anybody's guest here. It just Leads has

657
00:30:27,960 --> 00:30:30,640
Speaker 4: a tough run in here with Arsenal Chelsea left on

658
00:30:30,720 --> 00:30:34,360
Speaker 4: their calendar Brentford. I can't remember their fourth game, but

659
00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:39,560
Speaker 4: it's hard to imagine this team, especially with the injury

660
00:30:39,600 --> 00:30:42,880
Speaker 4: issues now, going to Arsenal and setting up like they

661
00:30:42,960 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 4: normally do. Like at some point Jesse marsh and Marcel Bielsa,

662
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:50,320
Speaker 4: whoever is managing this team in this exact situation, you

663
00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,160
Speaker 4: need to set them up not to lose, right, They

664
00:30:53,200 --> 00:30:55,440
Speaker 4: need to get a point out of this game, but

665
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 4: it's just not in their DNA, so I just don't

666
00:30:57,320 --> 00:30:59,800
Speaker 4: know how that's going to work for them. I guess

667
00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:03,160
Speaker 4: Arsenal team that has everything to play for. It's a huge,

668
00:31:03,240 --> 00:31:05,800
Speaker 4: huge match for the Gunners, the type of match that

669
00:31:05,840 --> 00:31:09,240
Speaker 4: we've seen them choke at in the past. However, the

670
00:31:09,280 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 4: signs do point in a different direction here Leeds. They

671
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:16,760
Speaker 4: are struggling defensively once again. Two point oh six expectacles

672
00:31:16,800 --> 00:31:19,520
Speaker 4: allowed to Saints one point sixty two to Palace, who

673
00:31:19,560 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 4: are not, you know, an offensive force, and then three

674
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:24,280
Speaker 4: point oher one to City. Those are their lists three matches.

675
00:31:24,320 --> 00:31:28,000
Speaker 4: So bj you're an Arsenal fan, this is a huge

676
00:31:28,000 --> 00:31:31,600
Speaker 4: match for the Gunners. Do you think there's also betting

677
00:31:31,680 --> 00:31:33,160
Speaker 4: value on your boys?

678
00:31:33,440 --> 00:31:34,160
Speaker 1: I do, yeah.

679
00:31:34,200 --> 00:31:37,000
Speaker 2: I project a little bit of value on Arsenal spread

680
00:31:37,040 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 2: minus four and a half at plus one thirty. I mean,

681
00:31:39,560 --> 00:31:43,080
Speaker 2: listen Leeds has been better defensively under Jesse marsh one

682
00:31:43,080 --> 00:31:46,200
Speaker 2: point four to four expectacles allowed in per match in

683
00:31:46,240 --> 00:31:49,240
Speaker 2: his time in charge, which is better than the two

684
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 2: expectables allowed per match under Bielsa. But you have to

685
00:31:53,320 --> 00:31:55,520
Speaker 2: consider the schedule they've played under Marsch. I mean they've

686
00:31:55,560 --> 00:31:58,320
Speaker 2: played one team inside the top ten in terms of

687
00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:01,680
Speaker 2: expected goals for per match, and it was Manchester City

688
00:32:02,080 --> 00:32:06,000
Speaker 2: this past weekend. Arsenal has done a fantastic job all

689
00:32:06,040 --> 00:32:08,239
Speaker 2: season long, even if they haven't gotten the results of

690
00:32:08,360 --> 00:32:10,360
Speaker 2: just beating up on the bottom half of the table.

691
00:32:10,680 --> 00:32:13,160
Speaker 2: Eighteen matches versus the bottom ten teams in the league,

692
00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:17,400
Speaker 2: Arsenal's a plus fourteen point five expected goal diffential interaveraging

693
00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:21,720
Speaker 2: one point seventy five expected goals per match in those matches,

694
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 2: leads defensively against the top six, almost thirty expected goals

695
00:32:26,800 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 2: allowed in ten matches, including two point seven to City

696
00:32:30,400 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 2: this past weekend. The reason Arsenal has had this big

697
00:32:34,320 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 2: resurgence basically it started on December eleventh when they beat

698
00:32:38,320 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 2: Southampton three to nothing. It's been their ability to play

699
00:32:41,040 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 2: through pressure since that date, their fourth in the Premier League,

700
00:32:44,040 --> 00:32:46,840
Speaker 2: and offensive passes per defensive action. So playing a team

701
00:32:46,880 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 2: like Leeds, who yeah, they're not going to press at

702
00:32:50,080 --> 00:32:53,920
Speaker 2: the fornetic pace that they did under Bielsa, but still

703
00:32:54,200 --> 00:32:56,040
Speaker 2: it's in there. Like you said, it's in their DNA.

704
00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:57,920
Speaker 2: They're still going to try to press and go forward.

705
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:01,480
Speaker 2: And Arsenal's ability to control ession play through that type

706
00:33:01,520 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 2: of pressure. I think it's going to be huge. Tomy

707
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,440
Speaker 2: Asu being back is obviously huge for Arsenal. He is

708
00:33:06,600 --> 00:33:07,800
Speaker 2: I think he picked up a little bit of a nock.

709
00:33:07,840 --> 00:33:10,239
Speaker 2: He is questionable for this match. But I think this

710
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:15,040
Speaker 2: is a huge match for a lot of reasons, especially

711
00:33:15,080 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 2: when we know the Liverpool Tottenham result from Saturday. So

712
00:33:20,400 --> 00:33:22,440
Speaker 2: I am taking Arsenal minus one and a half at

713
00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:24,800
Speaker 2: plus one thirty because I do project value on it

714
00:33:25,240 --> 00:33:28,520
Speaker 2: and the really I mean, the relegation fight is very interesting,

715
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:30,840
Speaker 2: but this match is going to be incredibly interesting depending

716
00:33:30,840 --> 00:33:33,600
Speaker 2: on what happens in Liverpool and Tottenham.

717
00:33:33,680 --> 00:33:37,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, so Arsenal will have the luxury of knowing what

718
00:33:38,480 --> 00:33:42,000
Speaker 4: Spurs did on Saturday. Leeds will also have the luxury

719
00:33:42,040 --> 00:33:44,960
Speaker 4: of doing what Burnley did on Saturday, which was which

720
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:48,200
Speaker 4: was what made that Everden match on Sunday just torture.

721
00:33:48,280 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 4: I think Peter Jury put it perfectly when he's like

722
00:33:50,080 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 4: it almost hurts to watch, and he was right, Anthony

723
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:58,480
Speaker 4: Arsenal not your favorite team, not like Liverpool. Do you

724
00:33:59,120 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 4: see betting on either side of this game.

725
00:34:01,320 --> 00:34:02,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to take leads plus the goal in

726
00:34:02,920 --> 00:34:05,959
Speaker 3: a quarter. I disagree with BJ I am. I think

727
00:34:06,000 --> 00:34:08,919
Speaker 3: I'm just higher on leads than BJ is because based

728
00:34:08,920 --> 00:34:12,319
Speaker 3: in the last few weeks of betting patterns, he had

729
00:34:12,360 --> 00:34:14,839
Speaker 3: Palace I didn't, and then I had leads against City

730
00:34:14,840 --> 00:34:16,880
Speaker 3: that didn't go too well. But I thought leads were

731
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:19,719
Speaker 3: actually pretty good against City for large stretch of that match.

732
00:34:19,760 --> 00:34:23,560
Speaker 3: They crumbled late. Set pieces did them in. But Arsenal

733
00:34:23,760 --> 00:34:25,960
Speaker 3: not generally a great set piece team. I know they

734
00:34:26,040 --> 00:34:29,640
Speaker 3: scored twice off set pieces against west Ham, but I

735
00:34:29,680 --> 00:34:32,279
Speaker 3: think leads defensively if they can sure up the set

736
00:34:32,280 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 3: piece issues. You watch them and you can just tell

737
00:34:34,560 --> 00:34:37,520
Speaker 3: that they're significantly more solid at the back, and the

738
00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 3: press is just different. They're playing more of a defensive press.

739
00:34:40,840 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 3: They're going to let Arsenal have the ball, and I

740
00:34:42,719 --> 00:34:46,680
Speaker 3: think Arsenal, you know, Niktya has been impressive, but I'm

741
00:34:46,719 --> 00:34:48,880
Speaker 3: just not sure how long I'm ying this, and I

742
00:34:48,880 --> 00:34:51,000
Speaker 3: think I'm going to look to sell the Arsenal attack

743
00:34:51,080 --> 00:34:53,880
Speaker 3: here and what should be. You know, I have Arsenal

744
00:34:53,920 --> 00:34:56,440
Speaker 3: favored by about a goal, so I'm going to take

745
00:34:56,480 --> 00:34:58,319
Speaker 3: the goal in a quarter plus one point two five

746
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:00,480
Speaker 3: And if you look at you know, Nikketya, like I said,

747
00:35:01,440 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 3: he had this, you know, burst.

748
00:35:02,920 --> 00:35:04,960
Speaker 5: Onto the scene. This is the time when I want

749
00:35:04,960 --> 00:35:05,359
Speaker 5: to sell him.

750
00:35:05,360 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 3: And if you're not buying to Cetia's shots in this

751
00:35:07,760 --> 00:35:11,840
Speaker 3: Arsenal attack, there's not much left from shot production to

752
00:35:11,880 --> 00:35:14,000
Speaker 3: make up for it for them to get margin against

753
00:35:14,040 --> 00:35:15,960
Speaker 3: a team like this, so I'm baiting them. I did

754
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:18,799
Speaker 3: not think they were particularly impressive against west Ham, so

755
00:35:19,760 --> 00:35:21,719
Speaker 3: you know, I think you know they're running a little high.

756
00:35:21,800 --> 00:35:23,520
Speaker 5: Now time to sell again.

757
00:35:23,640 --> 00:35:27,520
Speaker 4: All right, another Sunday match, just one, with far less

758
00:35:27,560 --> 00:35:30,399
Speaker 4: at stake than Arsenal and leeds Is. Norwich City plus

759
00:35:30,440 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 4: three fifty already been relegated west Ham minus one twenty five.

760
00:35:34,280 --> 00:35:37,920
Speaker 4: They have a Europa League semi final second leg against

761
00:35:38,120 --> 00:35:41,359
Speaker 4: Frankfurt on Thursday, so tough spot for them here. Their

762
00:35:41,440 --> 00:35:43,680
Speaker 4: odds on minus one twenty five. The drawt here is

763
00:35:43,719 --> 00:35:46,640
Speaker 4: plus two sixty five. I mean, I have no Betty

764
00:35:46,719 --> 00:35:49,040
Speaker 4: interests in this game, but if I had to choose

765
00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:52,680
Speaker 4: the side that I think has the most expected value,

766
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:56,680
Speaker 4: it would be Norich just because it's I'm not laying

767
00:35:56,760 --> 00:35:58,239
Speaker 4: it with west Ham in the spot, and the fact

768
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:01,600
Speaker 4: the way they've been playing and Nord should loose and

769
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:03,920
Speaker 4: there's no pressure we see teams in the spot, they

770
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 4: will nick a win or two down the stretch. So

771
00:36:06,360 --> 00:36:08,960
Speaker 4: I'll be passing here, BJ. This is probably the most

772
00:36:09,160 --> 00:36:14,400
Speaker 4: uninteresting game on the docket. Anything for you, Yeah.

773
00:36:12,960 --> 00:36:15,200
Speaker 1: I do have projected value on west Ham.

774
00:36:15,200 --> 00:36:17,520
Speaker 2: I have them at minus one forty six on the road,

775
00:36:17,719 --> 00:36:21,200
Speaker 2: so minus one twenty getting about twenty five lower twenty

776
00:36:21,239 --> 00:36:24,840
Speaker 2: five cents of value. We are recording this on Wednesday

777
00:36:24,920 --> 00:36:27,400
Speaker 2: night before the Thursday Euro up the league matches. I

778
00:36:27,440 --> 00:36:31,640
Speaker 2: want to see what happens to west Ham in Frankfurt,

779
00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 2: because there's a couple of scenarios where if they win well,

780
00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,319
Speaker 2: they could just tank this match and say we're just

781
00:36:38,360 --> 00:36:40,360
Speaker 2: gonna use this as a tune up for the Europa

782
00:36:40,400 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 2: League Final. If they lose well, they still have an

783
00:36:42,239 --> 00:36:45,680
Speaker 2: outside shot of finishing top six, which I do believe

784
00:36:45,680 --> 00:36:48,719
Speaker 2: would be important for them. So I really want to

785
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:51,120
Speaker 2: see what happens in that Thursday match. But I mean, yes,

786
00:36:51,160 --> 00:36:53,680
Speaker 2: you could say, yeah, Norwich, they've already relegated, they're playing loose.

787
00:36:53,719 --> 00:36:55,960
Speaker 2: I think it's going to be a very somber situation

788
00:36:56,080 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 2: at Carrol Road on Saturday, and this Norwich team can

789
00:37:00,280 --> 00:37:03,759
Speaker 2: go through Stad after Stad after stat about how bad

790
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 2: they are. But defensively they as of late they have

791
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 2: been really really bad.

792
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:10,440
Speaker 1: Last eight matches.

793
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:13,680
Speaker 2: They haven't held an opponent under one point nine expected

794
00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:15,160
Speaker 2: goals in any of them.

795
00:37:15,400 --> 00:37:17,240
Speaker 1: It's really bad. And west Ham.

796
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:20,160
Speaker 2: We've seen some resurgence, we've seen some life. Offensively, I

797
00:37:20,200 --> 00:37:22,319
Speaker 2: think Jared Bones really starting to get back into form.

798
00:37:22,840 --> 00:37:25,399
Speaker 1: So I do have some value on west Ham.

799
00:37:25,640 --> 00:37:29,279
Speaker 2: And if they lose to Frankfort on Thursday, or they

800
00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,239
Speaker 2: don't go through, I think they'll take this match a

801
00:37:31,239 --> 00:37:36,239
Speaker 2: lot more seriously than if they somehow pull that tie

802
00:37:36,560 --> 00:37:39,719
Speaker 2: away from Frankfort. So do have some projected value in

803
00:37:39,760 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 2: west Ham. I do like them at minus one twenty

804
00:37:41,560 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 2: against the worst team in the Premier League, so that's

805
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 2: where I'll be going unless they somehow end up winning

806
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:49,360
Speaker 2: against Frankfort on Thursday.

807
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:53,000
Speaker 4: All right, and now another match on Sunday morning, this

808
00:37:53,040 --> 00:37:55,600
Speaker 4: one a lot more at stake. Oh boy, I can't

809
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 4: wait to talk about it. Leicester City plus one to

810
00:37:58,120 --> 00:38:01,480
Speaker 4: forty at home. They also have a European night on

811
00:38:01,560 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 4: Thursday against Roma one one in their first leg, so

812
00:38:05,120 --> 00:38:07,319
Speaker 4: a big one there for them. In the Europa Conference League.

813
00:38:07,320 --> 00:38:10,600
Speaker 4: Everton plus one ninety five the draws plus two thirty five.

814
00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:13,200
Speaker 4: Like I said before, Everton trailing Burnley and Leeds by

815
00:38:13,239 --> 00:38:15,919
Speaker 4: two points with a game in hand and what should

816
00:38:15,960 --> 00:38:18,600
Speaker 4: be a more manageable schedule down the stretch. They got

817
00:38:18,640 --> 00:38:22,960
Speaker 4: Lester and Watford away, Brentford Palace at home and then

818
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 4: Arsenal away at the last game of the season. So

819
00:38:27,440 --> 00:38:30,600
Speaker 4: still not the easiest of journeys here and it hasn't been,

820
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:34,239
Speaker 4: but it does look like this Everdon team has shifted

821
00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:36,800
Speaker 4: the way it was. You could start to see the

822
00:38:36,800 --> 00:38:39,799
Speaker 4: stuff bubbling in that United game, actually in that Newcastle game,

823
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:41,879
Speaker 4: and then the United game and then the Liverpool game.

824
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:45,000
Speaker 4: They're just going to be hard to beat. That's it.

825
00:38:45,040 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 4: They don't they don't care how they get across the line.

826
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:48,799
Speaker 4: They're just gonna do it. And I think that makes

827
00:38:48,800 --> 00:38:52,880
Speaker 4: them a tough matchup, especially in this case for Leicester

828
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 4: because they've got nothing to play for and they're gonna

829
00:38:56,160 --> 00:38:59,080
Speaker 4: be coming either off of loss to Roma in a

830
00:38:59,400 --> 00:39:02,719
Speaker 4: Europeaardsik semifinal or a win where they're then going to

831
00:39:02,960 --> 00:39:06,560
Speaker 4: have to manage and look ahead to the final. So

832
00:39:07,280 --> 00:39:09,200
Speaker 4: the spot is bad for Lester. But also if you

833
00:39:09,280 --> 00:39:12,400
Speaker 4: look at the underlying metrics, there's really not much of

834
00:39:12,480 --> 00:39:15,200
Speaker 4: a difference between these two sides. In fact, Everdon has

835
00:39:15,280 --> 00:39:18,080
Speaker 4: the better expected goal differential on the season, a minus

836
00:39:18,360 --> 00:39:21,360
Speaker 4: zero point three expected gold differential for ninety Leicester closer

837
00:39:21,400 --> 00:39:24,520
Speaker 4: to point zero point four, and by expected points Everton

838
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:27,239
Speaker 4: thirty seven and a half Leicester thirty four and a half.

839
00:39:27,480 --> 00:39:30,240
Speaker 4: I think it's a great spot, good value on Everton,

840
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:33,239
Speaker 4: a team that has proven that if you do have

841
00:39:33,560 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 4: that will and you will just outwork your opponent. It

842
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,600
Speaker 4: does make the job of getting three points a little easier.

843
00:39:38,960 --> 00:39:41,719
Speaker 4: So I'm on the topies here, Anthony, what about you?

844
00:39:42,560 --> 00:39:42,759
Speaker 1: Yeah?

845
00:39:42,840 --> 00:39:45,160
Speaker 3: You know, I think we have to wait for Thursday

846
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:48,120
Speaker 3: to see where Lester is going to be, because whether

847
00:39:48,200 --> 00:39:50,040
Speaker 3: or not they win or lose kind of impacts how

848
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:52,960
Speaker 3: they may play out the rest of the season. Lesser

849
00:39:53,200 --> 00:39:55,759
Speaker 3: are just I don't really know what went wrong with

850
00:39:55,800 --> 00:39:57,400
Speaker 3: this team this year. I think that's a really interesting

851
00:39:57,440 --> 00:39:59,000
Speaker 3: thing I want to look more into as we get

852
00:39:59,040 --> 00:40:01,920
Speaker 3: to the end of the season. But they did just

853
00:40:02,040 --> 00:40:05,279
Speaker 3: play like two weeks ago, and of course it was

854
00:40:05,320 --> 00:40:07,799
Speaker 3: a bit of a wonky game because Lester scored super

855
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:09,920
Speaker 3: early and then kind of sat off a little bit,

856
00:40:09,960 --> 00:40:13,080
Speaker 3: but Everton completely dominated the second half. Now, grand I

857
00:40:13,160 --> 00:40:16,279
Speaker 3: was at home, but I just think, look, Everton is

858
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:17,960
Speaker 3: not one of the three or four worst teams in

859
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:18,439
Speaker 3: this league.

860
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:20,000
Speaker 5: It shouldn't be getting relegated.

861
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:22,760
Speaker 3: I know, you slack us down every time a result

862
00:40:22,840 --> 00:40:24,440
Speaker 3: goes against them, be it a goal or whatever, and

863
00:40:24,520 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 3: it's quite funny, but I just still believe in Everton's

864
00:40:27,840 --> 00:40:31,399
Speaker 3: staying up, So I'm gonna lean that way.

865
00:40:32,120 --> 00:40:35,640
Speaker 5: But I'm overall passing here, Hi, BJ what about you?

866
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:39,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm passing as well. I actually show a little

867
00:40:39,360 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 2: bit of value on Lester. But given the spot, the situation,

868
00:40:43,200 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 2: given the fact they have nothing to play for it

869
00:40:44,840 --> 00:40:47,520
Speaker 2: give them that they're playing on Thursday, this is a

870
00:40:48,239 --> 00:40:52,600
Speaker 2: pretty easy pass for me. The relegation fight is just

871
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:54,839
Speaker 2: so so interesting now that Leeds has been brought back

872
00:40:54,920 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 2: into it, because if you look ahead in the leads,

873
00:40:57,160 --> 00:41:01,319
Speaker 2: they have Chelsea after this match, which who knows where

874
00:41:01,360 --> 00:41:03,680
Speaker 2: Chelsea's gonna be If we think they're gonna like like

875
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:05,879
Speaker 2: we think, if they beat Wolves pretty badly, they're gonna

876
00:41:05,880 --> 00:41:06,680
Speaker 2: be secured in the third place.

877
00:41:06,760 --> 00:41:08,160
Speaker 1: Are they're gonna take that match seriously?

878
00:41:08,719 --> 00:41:11,840
Speaker 2: So it's it's interesting and I agree with any I

879
00:41:12,040 --> 00:41:14,520
Speaker 2: don't really know what happened to Lester's defense. I think

880
00:41:14,560 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 2: the loss of Johnny Evans might have been detrimental to them.

881
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:20,080
Speaker 2: They didn't really have much center back depth. But I mean,

882
00:41:20,120 --> 00:41:23,360
Speaker 2: this Lester attack is still very lethal with James Madison

883
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,879
Speaker 2: and company, so it wouldn't shock me to see them

884
00:41:25,960 --> 00:41:27,719
Speaker 2: go up early again and try and sit off. So

885
00:41:28,880 --> 00:41:31,600
Speaker 2: definitely will be playing Everton though if if Lesser scores first.

886
00:41:31,800 --> 00:41:34,400
Speaker 2: But I mean another fantastic spot here for Everton to

887
00:41:35,360 --> 00:41:40,040
Speaker 2: get out of the relegation fight, bo Burnley and Leeds

888
00:41:40,920 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 2: underdogs in their matches as well. Yeah, I think this

889
00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:47,799
Speaker 2: is an interesting situational spot for everything they've been They've

890
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 2: been managing the minutes of players like Fabian delf and

891
00:41:50,600 --> 00:41:53,279
Speaker 2: your Mena. I think Frank Lampid has basically said they

892
00:41:53,360 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 2: want Mina for the for the must win kind of game.

893
00:41:56,719 --> 00:41:58,279
Speaker 2: So I think, you know, you talk about the games

894
00:41:58,280 --> 00:42:01,279
Speaker 2: at home, maybe the Watford game, but it does seem like,

895
00:42:01,360 --> 00:42:02,799
Speaker 2: you know, with the week off, he should be back

896
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:05,760
Speaker 2: and he makes the defense just so much better. We've

897
00:42:05,840 --> 00:42:07,880
Speaker 2: talked about that all season long with Everden and he

898
00:42:07,960 --> 00:42:08,440
Speaker 2: should be in.

899
00:42:10,120 --> 00:42:10,719
Speaker 1: So it does.

900
00:42:10,920 --> 00:42:13,520
Speaker 4: I think there's enough here to back Everton at two

901
00:42:13,600 --> 00:42:16,880
Speaker 4: to one or close to it. The final game and

902
00:42:16,960 --> 00:42:19,840
Speaker 4: the Premier League calendar for this weekend is City minus

903
00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:23,879
Speaker 4: six hundred against Newcastle fourteen to one on the road.

904
00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:26,400
Speaker 4: The draw here is seven to one. The reason I

905
00:42:26,440 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 4: actually think that the money line parlay between Spurs and

906
00:42:30,320 --> 00:42:35,680
Speaker 4: Newcastle's little interesting is that if let's just say Tottenham

907
00:42:35,680 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 4: pulls it off right they win, then then Pep can

908
00:42:37,760 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 4: kind of manage his squad a little bit coming off

909
00:42:39,680 --> 00:42:42,719
Speaker 4: of just an epic collapse against Real Madrid over and

910
00:42:42,800 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 4: over the midweek, right, so if he sees let's say

911
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,000
Speaker 4: he sees Spurs win, he could say, Okay, this is

912
00:42:49,239 --> 00:42:50,640
Speaker 4: all of a sudden, Yeah, you want to put the

913
00:42:50,680 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 4: separation between you and Liverpool, but it's not a must

914
00:42:54,120 --> 00:42:56,759
Speaker 4: win anymore. So that's why I do think it's like

915
00:42:56,800 --> 00:42:59,680
Speaker 4: a little interesting here because you could see this Newcastle

916
00:42:59,760 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 4: number plummet if Pep does go that route, if Spurs

917
00:43:03,480 --> 00:43:06,400
Speaker 4: do pull it off. But either way it's I mean,

918
00:43:06,440 --> 00:43:09,160
Speaker 4: it's the Newcastle numbers is sort of tempting because of

919
00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 4: the hangover from Real Madrid here, but it's it's tough

920
00:43:12,120 --> 00:43:15,200
Speaker 4: to go against City with the way that we're playing

921
00:43:15,320 --> 00:43:18,840
Speaker 4: going into that that Real Madrid collapse. Beja anything for

922
00:43:18,880 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 4: you here?

923
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,759
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll probably end up passing. Don't hate City to

924
00:43:22,800 --> 00:43:24,799
Speaker 2: win nil Newcastle.

925
00:43:25,280 --> 00:43:26,000
Speaker 1: Since they've.

926
00:43:27,360 --> 00:43:31,520
Speaker 2: Since Eddie Howe has taken over, they've essentially played three

927
00:43:32,239 --> 00:43:33,240
Speaker 2: Big six.

928
00:43:33,160 --> 00:43:34,399
Speaker 1: Sides over that time.

929
00:43:34,640 --> 00:43:37,760
Speaker 2: They created point six against Tottenham, point two against Chelsea

930
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:41,160
Speaker 2: and then point two against Liverpool this past weekend. So

931
00:43:41,239 --> 00:43:44,760
Speaker 2: the offense clearly is not up to scuffed to face

932
00:43:45,000 --> 00:43:48,560
Speaker 2: off with some of the elites in England I mean,

933
00:43:48,680 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 2: I don't really see any other way than going other

934
00:43:51,680 --> 00:43:54,359
Speaker 2: than City winning. Here Boltiam score no has been priced

935
00:43:54,400 --> 00:43:56,200
Speaker 2: out of the market. It's already at minus one seventy

936
00:43:56,239 --> 00:43:58,799
Speaker 2: five and climbing, so that doesn't.

937
00:43:58,560 --> 00:44:03,120
Speaker 1: Have any value. But outside of betting, I'm just very.

938
00:44:03,080 --> 00:44:06,200
Speaker 2: Interesting to see where Citi's heads are going to be

939
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:08,200
Speaker 2: at going into this match. I mean, we can see

940
00:44:08,200 --> 00:44:13,719
Speaker 2: pep rotates some guys, but having that epic of a collapse,

941
00:44:14,560 --> 00:44:17,800
Speaker 2: essentially having a two goal lead going into the ninetieth minute,

942
00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:20,439
Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's got to mess with your mind

943
00:44:20,719 --> 00:44:23,040
Speaker 2: a little bit. Now you've got to refocus in a

944
00:44:24,080 --> 00:44:27,640
Speaker 2: huge title race. It's I don't know, I don't know

945
00:44:27,719 --> 00:44:29,799
Speaker 2: as a player you can refocus that. But then again,

946
00:44:30,000 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 2: the matchup against Newcastle is a good one for them.

947
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 2: They can't play through pressure. City is going to control

948
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:38,000
Speaker 2: a ton of possession, So yeah, this is an easy

949
00:44:38,080 --> 00:44:41,200
Speaker 2: pass for me. But I'm very interested to see how

950
00:44:41,320 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 2: City comes out and how they play.

951
00:44:43,280 --> 00:44:44,120
Speaker 1: After the collapse.

952
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:48,719
Speaker 4: Anthony, anything here for you Newcastle City before we get

953
00:44:48,760 --> 00:44:49,600
Speaker 4: into the rest of Europe.

954
00:44:49,880 --> 00:44:51,880
Speaker 5: Yeah, you know, I would lean towards City shutout win

955
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:52,279
Speaker 5: as well.

956
00:44:52,840 --> 00:44:55,160
Speaker 3: I just think Bja kind of stole my stat here,

957
00:44:55,239 --> 00:44:57,000
Speaker 3: but they just have not created when they've gone up

958
00:44:57,040 --> 00:44:59,480
Speaker 3: in class and even under how in general, I mean,

959
00:44:59,520 --> 00:45:01,879
Speaker 3: they've created less than one expected goal per matchet. They've

960
00:45:01,880 --> 00:45:04,760
Speaker 3: had this insane winning run, and they're due to regress

961
00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:08,080
Speaker 3: offensively quite a bit here. And I do expect, you know,

962
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:10,800
Speaker 3: City won't have Kyle Walker, which I don't like. This

963
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:12,960
Speaker 3: defense is just not quite as good without him, and

964
00:45:13,239 --> 00:45:15,239
Speaker 3: you know, we could talk about the collapse, but he

965
00:45:15,360 --> 00:45:17,239
Speaker 3: wasn't on the pitch for the last two goals or

966
00:45:17,239 --> 00:45:20,000
Speaker 3: three goals after he had to come off with the injuries.

967
00:45:20,040 --> 00:45:24,400
Speaker 3: So yeah, there, I just don't know where City's going

968
00:45:24,480 --> 00:45:26,000
Speaker 3: to be, So I may end up passing here. But

969
00:45:26,000 --> 00:45:28,320
Speaker 3: if you wanted to do a City shutout win and

970
00:45:28,400 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 3: then you know, put that in a parlay with Chelsea,

971
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:33,399
Speaker 3: it would get you to plus one twenty. So maybe

972
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,360
Speaker 3: that's where I'll end up throwing some pennies around to

973
00:45:35,440 --> 00:45:38,160
Speaker 3: have some more action down. But I think I've done

974
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:42,000
Speaker 3: one parlay all year, so yeah, probably not going to

975
00:45:42,040 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 3: do it with But we'll say I do like the spot.

976
00:45:44,239 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 3: I think you're getting a home City spot. Then you're

977
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:50,160
Speaker 3: getting a home Chelsea spot against two very overrated attacks

978
00:45:50,200 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 3: and teams in general with Wolves and Newcastle.

979
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,439
Speaker 4: All right, let's move to the Bundesliga E. Then bj

980
00:45:55,680 --> 00:45:57,680
Speaker 4: will start with you your favorite bet in Germany.

981
00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:00,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to go with one of our favorite teams,

982
00:46:00,440 --> 00:46:02,640
Speaker 2: Mines drawn. No bet at even money on the road

983
00:46:02,680 --> 00:46:06,000
Speaker 2: at Hurda Berlin. This is we're getting into the territory

984
00:46:06,080 --> 00:46:09,280
Speaker 2: now with a lot of these lines in every league

985
00:46:09,400 --> 00:46:11,920
Speaker 2: where we have motivation lines. Hurder Berlin is trying to

986
00:46:11,960 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 2: secure safety for next season, get themselves out of the

987
00:46:15,840 --> 00:46:18,279
Speaker 2: relegation five. Mines has nothing left to play for. They're

988
00:46:18,320 --> 00:46:20,600
Speaker 2: comfortably in the middle of the table. But given the

989
00:46:20,680 --> 00:46:24,120
Speaker 2: underlying performances of these two teams, it's so drastically different

990
00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 2: and it shouldn't even be close to a pick them.

991
00:46:26,040 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 2: Overall for the season, hurt of Berlin minus twenty one

992
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:32,040
Speaker 2: point seven expect a goal differential. Mines is at plus

993
00:46:32,160 --> 00:46:34,320
Speaker 2: five point three. This is such a good matchup for

994
00:46:34,440 --> 00:46:37,200
Speaker 2: Mines for a number of reasons. First off, they're fantastic

995
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,680
Speaker 2: pressing team, number top four in terms of passive for

996
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:43,320
Speaker 2: defensive action, high turnovers and pressure success rate. Hurth of

997
00:46:43,360 --> 00:46:47,520
Speaker 2: Berlin is the worst team in Germany at playing through pressure. Secondly,

998
00:46:47,680 --> 00:46:50,960
Speaker 2: Mines number one team in Germany at preventing big scoring chances.

999
00:46:51,239 --> 00:46:54,840
Speaker 2: Hurts of Berlin has created the third fewests. Finally, mines

1000
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:57,880
Speaker 2: third best set piece defense in Germany. They've only allowed

1001
00:46:57,960 --> 00:47:00,640
Speaker 2: six goals in nine point four expecting off of them

1002
00:47:00,680 --> 00:47:04,319
Speaker 2: this season. Hurt of Berlin is a very reliant team

1003
00:47:04,360 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 2: on set pieces. Eleven other thirty five goals have come

1004
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,120
Speaker 2: off with them this season. Last time Easton teams met,

1005
00:47:09,440 --> 00:47:12,480
Speaker 2: Mines completely dominated them. One four nothing, two point six

1006
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:15,280
Speaker 2: expect goals too, point five thirty three shock great actions

1007
00:47:15,440 --> 00:47:17,800
Speaker 2: just six for her to Berlin. I make minds of

1008
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:20,759
Speaker 2: minus one oh one road favorite, so getting them drawn

1009
00:47:20,800 --> 00:47:22,720
Speaker 2: a better even money I think has tremendous value.

1010
00:47:23,560 --> 00:47:24,800
Speaker 4: I'm with you on mind so I'm gonna take the

1011
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:27,360
Speaker 4: money line. Don't really need to repeat all the points

1012
00:47:27,400 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 4: you just made. But this is a team that we

1013
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:32,240
Speaker 4: just have been enabored with all season for good reason,

1014
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 4: and plus one eighty is a good number here against

1015
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 4: a relegation fighter. Anthony, what's your favorite bet in Germany?

1016
00:47:38,360 --> 00:47:41,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, that's another one. I mean Wolfsburg against Coln. Coln

1017
00:47:41,719 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 5: is minus one sixty. I mean BJ what's your number here.

1018
00:47:45,320 --> 00:47:46,080
Speaker 5: I'm actually curious.

1019
00:47:46,080 --> 00:47:49,120
Speaker 1: I didn't look, but I got Clone plus one twenty and.

1020
00:47:49,200 --> 00:47:51,880
Speaker 3: I have them plus one ten, So like, one, what

1021
00:47:52,040 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 3: earth are they minus one sixty? I get it, like

1022
00:47:54,520 --> 00:47:56,680
Speaker 3: they're chasing Europe. They have a good chance at the

1023
00:47:56,880 --> 00:47:59,120
Speaker 3: Europa League if they win this match. But if you

1024
00:47:59,200 --> 00:48:02,279
Speaker 3: look over the course of season, Colm's been marginally better,

1025
00:48:02,520 --> 00:48:05,359
Speaker 3: but they've they've been on an unbelievable winning run now

1026
00:48:06,440 --> 00:48:09,200
Speaker 3: in the Bundesliga, and so now you're kind of getting

1027
00:48:09,239 --> 00:48:11,040
Speaker 3: to the top of the market and you're even like

1028
00:48:11,120 --> 00:48:13,279
Speaker 3: above the top of the market with this team, Colin.

1029
00:48:13,280 --> 00:48:14,239
Speaker 5: I mean, they've won the four in a row.

1030
00:48:14,440 --> 00:48:17,520
Speaker 3: Credit to them, they played well, but minus won sixty

1031
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:21,200
Speaker 3: at home against a good Wolfsburg side who's underperformed all year,

1032
00:48:21,200 --> 00:48:24,359
Speaker 3: who has a positive expected goal difference despite sitting in thirteenth. Yeah,

1033
00:48:24,400 --> 00:48:25,960
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take the Wolfsburg plus one.

1034
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:28,960
Speaker 4: All right, that wraps up Germany. Let's move to Italy Syria,

1035
00:48:29,160 --> 00:48:31,359
Speaker 4: Ah Anthony favorite bet.

1036
00:48:31,600 --> 00:48:33,120
Speaker 5: Yeah, I'm a big fan of Italy. Now, you know,

1037
00:48:33,200 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 5: I just love this league.

1038
00:48:35,280 --> 00:48:37,719
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take Milan and Verona under two and three

1039
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 3: quarter goals at minus one ten. I mean Milan has

1040
00:48:41,040 --> 00:48:43,120
Speaker 3: really tightened up the defense. I gotta give him some credit.

1041
00:48:43,719 --> 00:48:45,640
Speaker 3: I've been saying for a while they've been overrated in

1042
00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:47,600
Speaker 3: attack and they've been due to regress, and they've come

1043
00:48:47,680 --> 00:48:49,760
Speaker 3: down to earth and they've regressed.

1044
00:48:49,760 --> 00:48:51,160
Speaker 5: I mean, they have not been scoring goals.

1045
00:48:51,200 --> 00:48:54,839
Speaker 3: They stole a second goal against Lazzio, but otherwise zero

1046
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 3: against Bologna, zero against Erno, two against Genewa, one came

1047
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:01,839
Speaker 3: in the nineteth minute, zero against Enter in the Copa

1048
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:05,600
Speaker 3: Italia Semis and then one against Borentina. So they have

1049
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:07,360
Speaker 3: not been scoring, but their defense has been excellent. I

1050
00:49:07,440 --> 00:49:10,440
Speaker 3: mean they've they kept seven clean sheets in a row,

1051
00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:13,359
Speaker 3: which is pretty impressive. And normally you'd say, okay, they're

1052
00:49:13,400 --> 00:49:15,480
Speaker 3: due to progress here and probably can see a couple

1053
00:49:15,520 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 3: of goals. But Verona has been one of the biggest

1054
00:49:17,160 --> 00:49:20,320
Speaker 3: overperformers in all of Italy this year, and so I

1055
00:49:20,400 --> 00:49:20,880
Speaker 3: just think this is.

1056
00:49:20,880 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 5: Going to be a very tight game.

1057
00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 3: Milan struggles to break down, you know, teams right now,

1058
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:29,800
Speaker 3: there's not creating a lot of chances and Verona I

1059
00:49:29,840 --> 00:49:31,799
Speaker 3: don't think they're going to threaten much on the counter

1060
00:49:32,120 --> 00:49:34,000
Speaker 3: at home here, So I'm gonna take the other two

1061
00:49:34,040 --> 00:49:35,600
Speaker 3: and three quarters. I think this is a one to one,

1062
00:49:35,680 --> 00:49:38,680
Speaker 3: one zero two, you know, one zero one one kind

1063
00:49:38,719 --> 00:49:41,120
Speaker 3: of game where Milan's going to be dragging it out again.

1064
00:49:41,320 --> 00:49:42,680
Speaker 5: So I'm going to take the under.

1065
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 4: BJ Do you have anything for us in Syria?

1066
00:49:46,160 --> 00:49:48,960
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm going to take another under Toronto Napoli under

1067
00:49:49,000 --> 00:49:51,000
Speaker 2: two and a half goals at even money. I mean,

1068
00:49:51,040 --> 00:49:53,440
Speaker 2: this is two of the best three defenses in Italy.

1069
00:49:53,440 --> 00:49:56,120
Speaker 2: I mean, both these teams have really nothing to play

1070
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:59,560
Speaker 2: for me. Napoli's pretty much out of the Syria title race,

1071
00:50:00,120 --> 00:50:00,960
Speaker 2: comfortable in the middle.

1072
00:50:00,760 --> 00:50:01,160
Speaker 1: Of the table.

1073
00:50:01,239 --> 00:50:04,319
Speaker 2: But both these teams are allowing under point eighty five

1074
00:50:04,560 --> 00:50:07,680
Speaker 2: non penalty expending goals per match. They're both conceding under

1075
00:50:07,719 --> 00:50:10,000
Speaker 2: point sixty five big scoring chances per match, while both

1076
00:50:10,040 --> 00:50:13,120
Speaker 2: teams offensively are outside the top seven in big scoring

1077
00:50:13,239 --> 00:50:16,640
Speaker 2: chances created. There has to be some regression coming for

1078
00:50:16,719 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 2: Napoli matches. I mean, this is an overarching story in

1079
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:21,680
Speaker 2: Siria A. Maybe it just will never happen this season.

1080
00:50:21,760 --> 00:50:24,839
Speaker 2: Hopefully we'll get that value next season and we'll start

1081
00:50:24,920 --> 00:50:27,839
Speaker 2: cashing some of these unders. But I mean Napoli, their

1082
00:50:27,920 --> 00:50:30,840
Speaker 2: last seven matches, there has been twenty nine goals scored

1083
00:50:31,239 --> 00:50:33,719
Speaker 2: off of seventeen point nine expected.

1084
00:50:33,960 --> 00:50:35,200
Speaker 1: That is insane.

1085
00:50:35,880 --> 00:50:39,080
Speaker 2: Torino matches this season have been pretty low, scoring only

1086
00:50:39,120 --> 00:50:43,080
Speaker 2: on two point three to four total goals on average.

1087
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 2: So both these teams are top five in terms of

1088
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:49,480
Speaker 2: preventing progressive passes and dribbles. They're also top five at

1089
00:50:49,520 --> 00:50:52,239
Speaker 2: defending set pieces. It's going to be very difficult for

1090
00:50:52,320 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 2: both these offenses to create anything of quality. I only

1091
00:50:55,640 --> 00:50:59,400
Speaker 2: have one point eight goals projected for this match, so

1092
00:51:00,320 --> 00:51:02,520
Speaker 2: getting under two and a half goals that even money,

1093
00:51:03,160 --> 00:51:05,560
Speaker 2: I think is a little insane. So I love the

1094
00:51:05,640 --> 00:51:06,560
Speaker 2: value on the under.

1095
00:51:07,880 --> 00:51:09,160
Speaker 1: We'll do La Liga now.

1096
00:51:09,400 --> 00:51:12,280
Speaker 4: I like Atletico Madrid plus one thirty five against Real Madrid.

1097
00:51:12,280 --> 00:51:15,719
Speaker 4: I mean it's a spot thing. It's Real Madrid. Even

1098
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:16,800
Speaker 4: it's a Darby, I know it.

1099
00:51:16,960 --> 00:51:17,960
Speaker 1: But they've won the league.

1100
00:51:18,320 --> 00:51:21,240
Speaker 4: There's probably still going to be partying after what happened

1101
00:51:21,280 --> 00:51:24,319
Speaker 4: today against City. It's really hard not to back at Letty,

1102
00:51:24,360 --> 00:51:27,279
Speaker 4: even at it, even as a pretty decent home favorite here.

1103
00:51:27,280 --> 00:51:30,920
Speaker 4: I think plus one thirty five it's where it'll end up, Anthony,

1104
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:32,440
Speaker 4: anything for you La Liga?

1105
00:51:33,080 --> 00:51:34,799
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm going to go back to the Barsha train.

1106
00:51:34,840 --> 00:51:36,560
Speaker 3: I mean they've kind of fallen off a little bit lately.

1107
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:38,759
Speaker 3: They have not been playing their best in the last

1108
00:51:38,800 --> 00:51:41,520
Speaker 3: few weeks. They kind of are sputtering again, and I

1109
00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:43,600
Speaker 3: think they ran a little too hot, a little too

1110
00:51:43,680 --> 00:51:45,400
Speaker 3: quickly under chav And it was always going to be

1111
00:51:45,440 --> 00:51:48,040
Speaker 3: a slow build to improvement. And I think they became

1112
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:50,840
Speaker 3: the public's favorite team because they smashed a couple of

1113
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:54,759
Speaker 3: high profile sides, namely Real Madrid. So I think now

1114
00:51:54,880 --> 00:51:57,479
Speaker 3: we're getting down to where they're achieve again. And plus

1115
00:51:57,560 --> 00:52:01,080
Speaker 3: one twenty against Real batist who's chasing top four and

1116
00:52:01,200 --> 00:52:03,799
Speaker 3: I think is inflated because of it, I'm gonna fade them.

1117
00:52:03,840 --> 00:52:06,319
Speaker 3: I'm gonna take Barsa. I really like to match up.

1118
00:52:06,800 --> 00:52:09,640
Speaker 3: Batista is a strong offensive team. Generally they are due

1119
00:52:09,640 --> 00:52:11,080
Speaker 3: to regress a little bit, but they're a good attack.

1120
00:52:11,480 --> 00:52:14,120
Speaker 3: But they're so reliant on having the ball that when

1121
00:52:14,160 --> 00:52:16,120
Speaker 3: they go up in classic in these better sides who

1122
00:52:16,160 --> 00:52:18,960
Speaker 3: control possession, they're just not great on the counter like

1123
00:52:19,040 --> 00:52:21,400
Speaker 3: you'd see a team who you know, who has the

1124
00:52:21,400 --> 00:52:23,600
Speaker 3: attacking numbers that they do. And so I'm gonna take

1125
00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:26,879
Speaker 3: Barcelona plus one twenty on the money line, even though

1126
00:52:26,920 --> 00:52:29,000
Speaker 3: on the road I think they should be odds on

1127
00:52:30,040 --> 00:52:31,200
Speaker 3: DJ anything for you here.

1128
00:52:31,960 --> 00:52:36,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have maybe the least stakes match of anything

1129
00:52:36,480 --> 00:52:41,239
Speaker 2: in Europe's top five weeks this weekend. Espaniol taking on Osasuna.

1130
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:44,920
Speaker 2: This is one of my favorite patented Set it and

1131
00:52:45,040 --> 00:52:47,759
Speaker 2: forget it. Set your notification for this match, don't watch

1132
00:52:47,760 --> 00:52:49,359
Speaker 2: a second of it, and let's hope that we only

1133
00:52:49,400 --> 00:52:52,200
Speaker 2: get one notification and that's the final whistle for zero

1134
00:52:52,320 --> 00:52:54,600
Speaker 2: zero because I'm going both teams to score no at

1135
00:52:54,680 --> 00:52:58,640
Speaker 2: minus one fifteen. These are two really bad offenses. Espanol

1136
00:52:58,680 --> 00:53:02,479
Speaker 2: has been dreadful despite having one of La Liga's best

1137
00:53:02,560 --> 00:53:06,440
Speaker 2: goal scorers, Raal de Tomas, who has fifteen goals this season,

1138
00:53:06,560 --> 00:53:10,160
Speaker 2: their thirteenth in expected goals fifteenth and big scoring chances.

1139
00:53:10,480 --> 00:53:12,040
Speaker 1: Ohsuna have dipped in.

1140
00:53:12,120 --> 00:53:14,000
Speaker 2: Formed defensively a bit late, but they're still a top

1141
00:53:14,080 --> 00:53:17,000
Speaker 2: five team in Lall League in terms of expected goals allowed.

1142
00:53:17,560 --> 00:53:20,600
Speaker 2: Both teams to score no for Osuna have been a

1143
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:24,440
Speaker 2: complete safe haven, and only nine of their thirty four

1144
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:26,960
Speaker 2: matches have both teams created at least one expected goal.

1145
00:53:27,280 --> 00:53:29,719
Speaker 2: Sam thing could be said for Espaniol. Only ten of

1146
00:53:29,760 --> 00:53:32,439
Speaker 2: their thirty four matches have both teams created at least

1147
00:53:32,560 --> 00:53:34,920
Speaker 2: one expected goal. The last time these two teams met

1148
00:53:35,280 --> 00:53:38,560
Speaker 2: incredibly boring zero zero draw, only one point five expected

1149
00:53:38,600 --> 00:53:42,640
Speaker 2: goals created, so I'm expecting something similar again. Second notifications,

1150
00:53:42,800 --> 00:53:44,640
Speaker 2: don't watch a second of this match. Both teams to

1151
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:46,240
Speaker 2: score no A minus one fifteen.

1152
00:53:46,360 --> 00:53:48,120
Speaker 4: All right, let's quickly go to league um before we

1153
00:53:48,200 --> 00:53:52,040
Speaker 4: get to our underdogs and then best bets, Anthony, but

1154
00:53:52,160 --> 00:53:52,560
Speaker 4: start with you.

1155
00:53:52,840 --> 00:53:53,399
Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean.

1156
00:53:53,320 --> 00:53:56,520
Speaker 3: Another good spot where we have an over valued Monaco

1157
00:53:56,719 --> 00:53:57,600
Speaker 3: chasing top four.

1158
00:53:58,040 --> 00:54:00,200
Speaker 5: They get juiced up because of it, and look, Leil

1159
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:04,560
Speaker 5: has had a bad season, but they're still the better team. No, Like,

1160
00:54:04,719 --> 00:54:06,080
Speaker 5: how is this line right?

1161
00:54:06,160 --> 00:54:08,560
Speaker 3: How is Leo catching a half a goal at home

1162
00:54:09,160 --> 00:54:11,120
Speaker 3: when they've been the better team based on expect the goals.

1163
00:54:11,160 --> 00:54:13,719
Speaker 5: I know what the table says, but I don't care Leo.

1164
00:54:14,239 --> 00:54:16,839
Speaker 5: The table is crap. Leo plus a half at minus

1165
00:54:16,880 --> 00:54:18,120
Speaker 5: one fifteen easy money.

1166
00:54:18,160 --> 00:54:18,279
Speaker 2: There.

1167
00:54:18,719 --> 00:54:20,920
Speaker 3: I shouldn't say that Leo plus a half minus one

1168
00:54:20,960 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 3: fifteen very undervalue. No such thing as easy money except

1169
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:25,920
Speaker 3: except Spurs next Thursday.

1170
00:54:26,160 --> 00:54:30,320
Speaker 4: I appreciate that, Anthony, that was very mature review. BJA

1171
00:54:30,680 --> 00:54:31,640
Speaker 4: anything for you here.

1172
00:54:31,600 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 2: I'm gonna I'm gonna stand at the same match and

1173
00:54:33,200 --> 00:54:36,799
Speaker 2: take the under, which is at plus one on five

1174
00:54:36,920 --> 00:54:38,320
Speaker 2: under two and a half at plus one five.

1175
00:54:38,160 --> 00:54:39,400
Speaker 1: Which I think is insane.

1176
00:54:39,440 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 2: Again, two of the best three defenses in France. Lil

1177
00:54:43,680 --> 00:54:46,520
Speaker 2: is going to be without Ronato Senchez and berrick Yelmaz,

1178
00:54:46,800 --> 00:54:49,080
Speaker 2: so I'm guessing they're gonna play a little more defensive

1179
00:54:49,080 --> 00:54:53,120
Speaker 2: than they usually would. The little defense this year almost

1180
00:54:53,239 --> 00:54:57,000
Speaker 2: more impressive than it was last year, so we've gone now.

1181
00:54:57,280 --> 00:55:00,640
Speaker 2: Before the match against Troce this past weekend, they lost

1182
00:55:00,680 --> 00:55:03,480
Speaker 2: three nothing, got two red cards and allowed three penalties.

1183
00:55:04,360 --> 00:55:07,359
Speaker 2: They had gone nine straight matches without allowing over one

1184
00:55:07,440 --> 00:55:11,120
Speaker 2: expected goal. They've also gone out because penalties don't count

1185
00:55:11,320 --> 00:55:16,280
Speaker 2: as big scoring chances. They've gone thirteen straight matches without

1186
00:55:16,440 --> 00:55:20,520
Speaker 2: allowing a big scoring chance. That is insane, and Monaco

1187
00:55:20,840 --> 00:55:24,280
Speaker 2: number one defense in France by expected goals, only allowing

1188
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:27,600
Speaker 2: point eighty seven non penalty per match. They're also the

1189
00:55:27,680 --> 00:55:31,040
Speaker 2: number one pressing team in League one bypass per defensive action.

1190
00:55:31,160 --> 00:55:33,600
Speaker 2: They forced the third most high turnovers, but they don't

1191
00:55:33,719 --> 00:55:37,040
Speaker 2: do anything with those high turnovers. They're thirteenth in shots

1192
00:55:37,160 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 2: off of those high turnovers. So it wouldn't shock me

1193
00:55:39,680 --> 00:55:43,000
Speaker 2: for Monico to hold sixty percent possession in this match

1194
00:55:43,200 --> 00:55:47,160
Speaker 2: and just do absolutely nothing with it. So I'm expecting

1195
00:55:47,200 --> 00:55:49,160
Speaker 2: something very low scoring, not a lot of high quality

1196
00:55:49,239 --> 00:55:51,600
Speaker 2: chances being created, So give me under two and a

1197
00:55:51,600 --> 00:55:52,799
Speaker 2: half goals at plus one to five.

1198
00:55:53,480 --> 00:55:56,320
Speaker 4: All right, speaking of easy money, how about the underdog parlay.

1199
00:55:56,760 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 4: We'll give out our three favorite underdogs pross Europe and

1200
00:55:59,320 --> 00:56:01,359
Speaker 4: tell you what the part if you wrap them all

1201
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:06,200
Speaker 4: together once again. Came close over the weekend, Brentford, of

1202
00:56:06,280 --> 00:56:09,040
Speaker 4: all teams let us down. But we're in a little

1203
00:56:09,040 --> 00:56:11,160
Speaker 4: bit of a role here in terms of actually these

1204
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:14,120
Speaker 4: come cashing it at a much higher clip, so maybe

1205
00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:15,959
Speaker 4: due for a little bit of regression, but not until

1206
00:56:16,239 --> 00:56:19,320
Speaker 4: we hit the three legger. I'm going to start Spurs

1207
00:56:19,520 --> 00:56:23,680
Speaker 4: six to one over Liverpool twelve thirty on Saturday. Tottenham

1208
00:56:24,280 --> 00:56:27,600
Speaker 4: is the fourth best team in the Premier League, maybe

1209
00:56:27,760 --> 00:56:31,640
Speaker 4: tied with Arsenal. Very tight there, right, bj But the

1210
00:56:31,760 --> 00:56:34,000
Speaker 4: key here is that you're getting the fourth best team

1211
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:37,240
Speaker 4: in the Premier League, one of the best ten fifteen

1212
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:39,520
Speaker 4: teams in Europe at six to one odds against the

1213
00:56:39,560 --> 00:56:42,880
Speaker 4: team that has played a ton of soccer over the

1214
00:56:42,960 --> 00:56:45,600
Speaker 4: past month plus eleventh. This will be the eleventh match

1215
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:48,440
Speaker 4: in thirty five days for Liverpool, a team that just

1216
00:56:48,560 --> 00:56:52,919
Speaker 4: played a highly emotional second leg against via Realite in Spain,

1217
00:56:53,080 --> 00:56:56,080
Speaker 4: traveling back here for a Tottenham team that has it

1218
00:56:56,120 --> 00:56:58,520
Speaker 4: all to play for in the race for the top four.

1219
00:56:58,960 --> 00:57:01,400
Speaker 4: So I always say it on the show, there are

1220
00:57:01,440 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 4: just some numbers, are sub teams that are just too

1221
00:57:03,719 --> 00:57:06,280
Speaker 4: good to pass at a number like this, and Spurs

1222
00:57:06,600 --> 00:57:10,440
Speaker 4: certainly tick that box at six to one, Anthony, your

1223
00:57:10,480 --> 00:57:11,200
Speaker 4: favorite underdog.

1224
00:57:11,480 --> 00:57:13,400
Speaker 3: I was tempted by Leo, but I'm gonna go Wolfsburg

1225
00:57:13,440 --> 00:57:15,239
Speaker 3: plus four to twenty. Probably gonna play Letal too, but

1226
00:57:15,400 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 3: my official pick is going to be Wolfsburg. The fact

1227
00:57:17,480 --> 00:57:20,640
Speaker 3: that we're getting plus four twenty when they should not be.

1228
00:57:21,160 --> 00:57:23,040
Speaker 3: They should barely be underdogs in the match, you know,

1229
00:57:23,120 --> 00:57:24,560
Speaker 3: it should be about plus two thirty ish.

1230
00:57:25,440 --> 00:57:27,680
Speaker 5: That is insane to me. And so I'm gonna bet

1231
00:57:27,920 --> 00:57:29,240
Speaker 5: Wolfsburg at plus four twenty.

1232
00:57:29,280 --> 00:57:31,000
Speaker 3: And then I'm going to fade the narrative that a

1233
00:57:31,080 --> 00:57:32,520
Speaker 3: team is going to just all of a sudden become

1234
00:57:32,560 --> 00:57:36,120
Speaker 3: amazing because they must win a match, which history such suggests.

1235
00:57:36,600 --> 00:57:39,640
Speaker 3: You know, teams in relegation battles tend to have bumps

1236
00:57:39,680 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 3: in their performance, so that maybe you could argue is warranted.

1237
00:57:43,200 --> 00:57:47,640
Speaker 3: But chasing these already pretty good teams. Trying to get

1238
00:57:47,680 --> 00:57:50,720
Speaker 3: into these better positions has not been a profitable venture

1239
00:57:51,160 --> 00:57:53,840
Speaker 3: when you bet the numbers. So we bet numbers here

1240
00:57:53,920 --> 00:57:56,640
Speaker 3: plus four twenty. Happy to bet it, and I feel

1241
00:57:56,680 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 3: good about this week. I didn't jinx last week, by

1242
00:57:58,800 --> 00:57:59,880
Speaker 3: the way, for the first time all.

1243
00:57:59,800 --> 00:58:02,680
Speaker 2: You BJ I don't know if I want this partly

1244
00:58:02,800 --> 00:58:05,720
Speaker 2: the head now you've taken Tottenham.

1245
00:58:05,280 --> 00:58:07,600
Speaker 1: But I'll go to Germany.

1246
00:58:09,160 --> 00:58:12,440
Speaker 2: Union Berlin plus two eighty five on the road at Freiburg.

1247
00:58:12,840 --> 00:58:15,840
Speaker 2: Something very interesting happening in Germany right now. The battle

1248
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:18,680
Speaker 2: for the fourth place spot is upper grabs. Freiberg is

1249
00:58:18,760 --> 00:58:21,520
Speaker 2: currently sitting in fourth, one point lead over r WE

1250
00:58:21,600 --> 00:58:25,480
Speaker 2: Leipsig after they lost to Gladbach on Monday. So you're

1251
00:58:25,520 --> 00:58:28,200
Speaker 2: getting a little bit of a bump in Freiburg here,

1252
00:58:28,280 --> 00:58:31,720
Speaker 2: which I mean I'm not really understanding. I mean, they've

1253
00:58:31,800 --> 00:58:35,000
Speaker 2: been pretty bad from open play all season. They've been

1254
00:58:35,040 --> 00:58:38,080
Speaker 2: over valued all season long, but especially from open play,

1255
00:58:38,160 --> 00:58:41,400
Speaker 2: only one point one expected goals per ninety minutes. But

1256
00:58:41,800 --> 00:58:44,080
Speaker 2: I mentioned a couple episodes ago they are by far

1257
00:58:44,400 --> 00:58:47,280
Speaker 2: the best set piece team in Germany. Nineteen goals scored

1258
00:58:47,320 --> 00:58:49,720
Speaker 2: off a set pieces. Union Blend not only a top

1259
00:58:49,760 --> 00:58:52,040
Speaker 2: five defense in terms of expected goals allowed and big

1260
00:58:52,080 --> 00:58:55,520
Speaker 2: scoring chances allowed, they're also the second best defense against

1261
00:58:55,600 --> 00:58:59,120
Speaker 2: set pieces in the Bundeslig, only seven point one expected

1262
00:58:59,160 --> 00:59:02,520
Speaker 2: goals allowed off them this season. You know, been really

1263
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:05,560
Speaker 2: good offensively as of late as well, eight expected goals

1264
00:59:05,600 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 2: created in their last five matches. They still have an

1265
00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:11,120
Speaker 2: outside shot at finishing in a Champions League spot. They're

1266
00:59:11,160 --> 00:59:15,680
Speaker 2: only I believe, three points behind Freiberg with two matches

1267
00:59:15,760 --> 00:59:17,400
Speaker 2: left to go, so they can still get up into

1268
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:21,040
Speaker 2: fifth place for a Europa League spot. It's it's a

1269
00:59:21,120 --> 00:59:23,640
Speaker 2: tight race for that top seven there in Germany. So

1270
00:59:24,760 --> 00:59:27,640
Speaker 2: I have Union Blend projected at plus two seventeen, so

1271
00:59:28,040 --> 00:59:30,200
Speaker 2: getting some value on them at plus two eighty five.

1272
00:59:30,840 --> 00:59:33,360
Speaker 4: Another team that's treated us very well there, so Spurs

1273
00:59:33,560 --> 00:59:37,200
Speaker 4: Foldsburg and Unya and Berlin wrapped those three teams together

1274
00:59:37,240 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 4: one hundred and forty to one. The parlay pays off.

1275
00:59:40,840 --> 00:59:42,600
Speaker 4: Feel pretty good. Yeah, I do feel pretty good about

1276
00:59:42,600 --> 00:59:42,800
Speaker 4: it too.

1277
00:59:42,880 --> 00:59:44,360
Speaker 1: I don't all right, BJA.

1278
00:59:44,480 --> 00:59:46,080
Speaker 4: You start with the best bets here, your favorite bet

1279
00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:48,680
Speaker 4: in the Premier League for the upcoming match weekend.

1280
00:59:49,120 --> 00:59:52,800
Speaker 2: Brentford plus one twenty five at home against Southampton. I

1281
00:59:52,920 --> 00:59:55,240
Speaker 2: have Brentford projected at minus one thirteenth, so showing a

1282
00:59:55,240 --> 00:59:56,520
Speaker 2: little about the value on them.

1283
00:59:56,600 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 1: This is a form type of bets.

1284
00:59:58,000 --> 01:00:00,640
Speaker 2: So Brentford been in an incredible form their last eight

1285
01:00:00,760 --> 01:00:03,960
Speaker 2: matches plus two point nine expected gold differential, wile Southampton

1286
01:00:04,400 --> 01:00:06,880
Speaker 2: over their last nine matches they have a minus seven

1287
01:00:07,280 --> 01:00:09,600
Speaker 2: expected GOLDI French and are lying around one point seven

1288
01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:13,440
Speaker 2: expected goals per match. Also, Southampton defensively been trending in

1289
01:00:13,600 --> 01:00:16,200
Speaker 2: the wrong directions second half of the season, seventeenth in

1290
01:00:16,240 --> 01:00:18,840
Speaker 2: the Premier League in expected goals allowed. This is also

1291
01:00:18,880 --> 01:00:23,120
Speaker 2: a home road splits type of match. Brentford outstanding at

1292
01:00:23,160 --> 01:00:26,120
Speaker 2: the Brentford Community Stadium around a five expected gold differential,

1293
01:00:26,200 --> 01:00:30,280
Speaker 2: while Southampton round of minus eight expected gold differential.

1294
01:00:29,960 --> 01:00:33,240
Speaker 1: On the road. So I love the Bees at home

1295
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:35,480
Speaker 1: to get all three points at plus one twenty five.

1296
01:00:35,960 --> 01:00:38,920
Speaker 4: I'll go next with the homer pick Everton plus one

1297
01:00:39,040 --> 01:00:41,280
Speaker 4: ninety five against Leicester City. It comes down to this,

1298
01:00:42,440 --> 01:00:45,320
Speaker 4: It's a great spot. Leicester City will be playing a

1299
01:00:45,440 --> 01:00:47,880
Speaker 4: European semi final on Thursday, then we'll have to play

1300
01:00:47,920 --> 01:00:50,959
Speaker 4: Everton on Sunday in a matchup means nothing to Leicester

1301
01:00:51,200 --> 01:00:54,120
Speaker 4: in the Premier League. Everdon meanwhile still fighting for their

1302
01:00:54,120 --> 01:00:56,920
Speaker 4: Premier League lives, coming off of an oppressive loss I

1303
01:00:57,000 --> 01:00:59,680
Speaker 4: guess in terms of team spirit against Liverpool, backed up

1304
01:00:59,720 --> 01:01:02,720
Speaker 4: by an impressive win in terms of both team spirit

1305
01:01:02,800 --> 01:01:06,240
Speaker 4: and the victory against Chelsea at home. And if you

1306
01:01:06,280 --> 01:01:09,000
Speaker 4: look at these two teams, they're underlying metrics are really

1307
01:01:09,080 --> 01:01:12,040
Speaker 4: not that far up. In fact, evidence are better minus

1308
01:01:12,240 --> 01:01:15,360
Speaker 4: zero point three expected gole differential for ninety on the

1309
01:01:15,400 --> 01:01:19,600
Speaker 4: season Leicester City negative zero point three seven. So Everdon,

1310
01:01:19,840 --> 01:01:23,080
Speaker 4: a team that is three points better by a should

1311
01:01:23,080 --> 01:01:26,680
Speaker 4: say three expected points better than Leicester City by understats metric,

1312
01:01:27,160 --> 01:01:30,400
Speaker 4: as a decent underdog here in a great spot screens

1313
01:01:30,480 --> 01:01:32,720
Speaker 4: value to me. So I'll be taking the Toppies is

1314
01:01:32,760 --> 01:01:34,680
Speaker 4: my favorite bet plus one ninety five to get the

1315
01:01:34,800 --> 01:01:39,600
Speaker 4: job done and continue their march towards Premier League survival. Anthony,

1316
01:01:40,240 --> 01:01:41,040
Speaker 4: what's your favorite bet?

1317
01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:43,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm taking both teams to score and over two

1318
01:01:43,800 --> 01:01:45,600
Speaker 3: and a half goals at minus one oh five in

1319
01:01:45,640 --> 01:01:48,720
Speaker 3: the Liverpool Tottenham match. Spurs created three and a half

1320
01:01:48,840 --> 01:01:51,919
Speaker 3: expected goals in the last meeting between these two teams,

1321
01:01:51,960 --> 01:01:54,720
Speaker 3: and I understand that Liverpool had what they didn't have

1322
01:01:54,840 --> 01:01:56,760
Speaker 3: Van Dyke and they had a couple of backup midfielders

1323
01:01:56,800 --> 01:01:58,840
Speaker 3: in there. But I think the pattern that have been

1324
01:01:58,920 --> 01:02:02,760
Speaker 3: established under Antonio makes them very effective at playing against

1325
01:02:02,800 --> 01:02:04,919
Speaker 3: teams who press high up the pitch, who are willing

1326
01:02:05,000 --> 01:02:07,280
Speaker 3: to take chances, and that's exactly what Liverpool does.

1327
01:02:07,360 --> 01:02:07,920
Speaker 5: Defensively.

1328
01:02:08,320 --> 01:02:10,320
Speaker 3: They are going to pretty much bet they're going to

1329
01:02:10,360 --> 01:02:13,160
Speaker 3: outscore you, and they probably will outscore Spurs in this match.

1330
01:02:13,640 --> 01:02:15,640
Speaker 3: But they take a lot of chances defensively. Like I said,

1331
01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:18,160
Speaker 3: they play the high line. Kine drops in and he's

1332
01:02:18,200 --> 01:02:21,400
Speaker 3: able to find Son in behind, especially the channel between

1333
01:02:21,400 --> 01:02:25,400
Speaker 3: Alexander Arnold and Van Dyke or montev or Kanante whoever

1334
01:02:25,440 --> 01:02:26,840
Speaker 3: ends up playing on that right side. I think they're

1335
01:02:26,840 --> 01:02:28,800
Speaker 3: gonna have a lot of success there. And we've just

1336
01:02:28,880 --> 01:02:32,200
Speaker 3: seen this Liverpool team when they played better attacks, they've

1337
01:02:32,240 --> 01:02:35,240
Speaker 3: conceded goals this year. They just have outscored a lot

1338
01:02:35,280 --> 01:02:36,880
Speaker 3: of their best opponents. I do think they will win

1339
01:02:36,960 --> 01:02:39,840
Speaker 3: this match, but both teams to score in over two

1340
01:02:39,840 --> 01:02:42,000
Speaker 3: and a half is undervalued at minus one five.

1341
01:02:42,560 --> 01:02:45,720
Speaker 4: All right, that does it for another episode of a

1342
01:02:45,840 --> 01:02:49,200
Speaker 4: wonder goal for bj Cunningham and Anthony Dubundo and michael Leeboff.

1343
01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:51,640
Speaker 4: We will see you again on Monday morning.