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Speaker 1: Happy Wednesday, and welcome to another episode of the check podcast. I.

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Speaker 1: As you may see, I don't have my normal set

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Speaker 1: behind me. I am traveling this week. I'm all over

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Speaker 1: the state of Florida for a variety of work related issues.

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Speaker 1: But obviously it's like I said, it's work, it's not play.

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Speaker 1: So I've been other than still recovering still, I think

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Speaker 1: my middle aged back is recovering from the snow shoveling

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Speaker 1: and shall we say, trying to participate in the transportation

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Speaker 1: system in America after a big snowstorm is never the

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Speaker 1: easiest thing to do. But I have made it to

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Speaker 1: where I need to get in getting through as many

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Speaker 1: friendly skies as I can get through. But look, we

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Speaker 1: begin today with what was clearly what Tuesday turned into

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Speaker 1: for President Trump. You know, in the grand scheme of things,

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Speaker 1: Tuesday was supposed to be the day that Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: started to turn the page on this crazy, chaotic January

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Speaker 1: that's been into. They set up this big event in

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Speaker 1: Iowa to focus on affordability and affordability, and the White

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Speaker 1: House focusing on affordability feels like we are reliving what

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Speaker 1: happened in the first term with in every week. This

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Speaker 1: was was going to be the week they focused on infrastructure.

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Speaker 1: Every week is the week that the White House is

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Speaker 1: going to turn its attention to affordability. And whether it's

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Speaker 1: the President stepping on that message himself for a variety

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Speaker 1: of reasons, or events that like what's happening in Minneapolis

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Speaker 1: essentially start to consume the President. And it's pretty clear,

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Speaker 1: as I sort of telegraphed for you on Monday, the

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Speaker 1: walk back was coming and certainly, Tuesday was a lot

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Speaker 1: of walk back. And let me just quote the President

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Speaker 1: in one of his interviews, including this one, was on

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Speaker 1: Fox when he was talking about getting rid of Greg.

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Speaker 1: Greg Bovino is the guy that wears the long leather

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Speaker 1: coat that for whatever reason, is excited that people will

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Speaker 1: mistaken him for some nineteen thirties European thug. The first

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Speaker 1: move the President made was essentially getting rid of Bovino,

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Speaker 1: pulling him out of Minneapolis. Greg Bovino, who was and

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Speaker 1: I'll quote him as he said, well, I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's a pullback. I think it's a change. You know,

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Speaker 1: Bovino's very good, but he's a pretty out there kind

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Speaker 1: of guy, and in some cases that's good. Maybe it

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Speaker 1: wasn't good here. And that was sort of the president

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Speaker 1: all day on Tuesday. He was trying, on one hand

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Speaker 1: to show some empathy to the situation, very awkwardly at best.

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Speaker 1: He continues this weird during the interview, He's asked about

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Speaker 1: Renee Good. We have Alex Pretty who died and Renee

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Speaker 1: Good who died. That's about Renee Good. And he kept

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Speaker 1: bringing up the fact that Renee his parents were Trump supporters,

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Speaker 1: and he seems to seem to imply that he has

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Speaker 1: a bit more empathy. It came across as if he

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Speaker 1: was basically saying, well, I have more empathy for Renee

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Speaker 1: Good because her parents voted for me, and I think

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Speaker 1: we have an idea of what happened on this one, right.

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Speaker 1: Somebody was telling him this in a desperate attempt to

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Speaker 1: make sure he didn't trash her the way Christine Homan

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Speaker 1: others trashed her in his administration. And what does he do.

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Speaker 1: He sort of turns it into a callous thing anyway.

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Speaker 1: That so, no, he's not trashing her, but he's making

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Speaker 1: everybody uncomfortable by this advice, essentially implying that his empathy

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Speaker 1: only extends to her because her parents supported him. But

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Speaker 1: he clearly got the message that his own party. And

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Speaker 1: this was sort of the question, why did he send

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Speaker 1: Tom Homan r Tom Hommes. And it's not somebody who's

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Speaker 1: going to reassure Tim Wallas or reassure Democrats, though plenty

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Speaker 1: of Democrats have a good relationship with Tom Holman. He's

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Speaker 1: a veteran of DHS and of Border Patrol, somebody that's

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Speaker 1: worked with Jay Johnson and Ali may orcis the last

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Speaker 1: two Democratic heads of the Department of Homeland Security. So

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Speaker 1: he was somebody that's seen as sort of a professional.

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Speaker 1: Certainly he has his political leaning, but he was a

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Speaker 1: professional first, not like this Bovino character, or certainly not

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Speaker 1: the way Christy Nome or Stephen Miller have been behaving.

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Speaker 1: But what Homan was there to reassure Republicans who had

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Speaker 1: completely lost confidence? And how do we know that Republicans

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Speaker 1: clearly over the weekend had completely lost confidence because they

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Speaker 1: all finally said something today after the President sent Tom Holman,

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Speaker 1: after the President pulled Bovino, and after essentially the President

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Speaker 1: gave a public permission slip to say what people wanted

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Speaker 1: to say. And so what did you have? You had

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Speaker 1: a parade of Republicans who have been wanting to speak

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Speaker 1: out clearly we're afraid to get to do it before

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Speaker 1: they knew what the White House was going to do.

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Speaker 1: And then suddenly you had it right, you had I

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Speaker 1: want to share a few share a few of these

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Speaker 1: quotes here Thun going on the Senate floor. You wouldn't

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Speaker 1: have You didn't see this with Renee Good, but you

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Speaker 1: saw it with Alex pretty and where John Thune is

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Speaker 1: saying the death of Alex Pretty was a tragedy and

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Speaker 1: there should be a full and impartial investigation into his shooting.

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Speaker 1: And then he adds, I am glad that the President

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Speaker 1: has sent Tom Homan to Minnesota, and I hope his

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Speaker 1: arrival will help turn down the temperature and restore order.

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Speaker 1: And then you had it sort of seemed to almost

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Speaker 1: open the floodgates for more and more Republicans to feel

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Speaker 1: comfortable criticizing the situation. Ran Paul, calling for hearings, said

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Speaker 1: that Christy Nome had accepted to come. You even had

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Speaker 1: Tom Tillis calling for Christy Nome to be five, Lisa

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Speaker 1: Rakowski joining him right after. So, yes, Tillis is retiring.

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Speaker 1: Murkowski's not running in twenty six. So you know this

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Speaker 1: is not I wouldn't call this a break just yet,

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Speaker 1: but you see the direction this is going. And while

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Speaker 1: the President had a simple one word answer whether she

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Speaker 1: was still going to be there, referring to Christy Nomy

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Speaker 1: said if she was going to be out of a job,

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Speaker 1: He said no, But he's known to change his mind

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Speaker 1: on those things, and I wouldn't I wouldn't assume anything

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Speaker 1: is done, but I do think reading Tillis's statement matters

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Speaker 1: because Tillis really put out a tough statement here. And

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Speaker 1: look the backstory in Tom Tillis. You know he was

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Speaker 1: going to run for reelection. He was focused on running

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Speaker 1: for reelection. He was sort of you know, if Bill

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Speaker 1: Cassidy was supposed to be the Republican that was either

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Speaker 1: going to make or break RFK Junior, Tom Tillis was

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Speaker 1: going to be. Joni Earns were going to be the

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Speaker 1: Republicans that were going to make or break hag Seth.

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Speaker 1: They both sort of blinked and they both end up retiring.

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Speaker 1: I don't think that's an accident. I don't want to

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Speaker 1: put words in Tom Tillis's mouth. He's never said this,

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Speaker 1: but I can just tell you there's a lot of

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Speaker 1: resentment amongst some Senate Republicans at haig Seth, at Christino,

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Speaker 1: at RFK Junior, at Tulca Cavern. And so these are

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Speaker 1: probably the least popular of the cabinet secretaries from the

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Speaker 1: very beginning, and suddenly you're seeing those that feel like

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Speaker 1: they can speak out are jumping on it. And I'll

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Speaker 1: just quote Tom Tillis. She's proven that she doesn't know

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Speaker 1: how to lead, how to de escalate. She's exposing ICE

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Speaker 1: officers to dangerous situations, she's exposing US citizens to deadly situations. Again,

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Speaker 1: Republican Senator Tom Tillis. And instead of actually stepping back

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Speaker 1: and being calm, she tells the President, as did Stephen Miller,

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Speaker 1: shortly after the shooting, before anybody could have gotten any

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Speaker 1: unseen information that he was a terrorist. What sort of

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Speaker 1: judgment is that for somebody who's running a very constant, quential,

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Speaker 1: important organization. I haven't even talked about the C and

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Speaker 1: D in failing grades that she's getting on Helene response

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Speaker 1: referring to FEMA and the response for that storm last fall.

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Speaker 1: So the knives are out there for Christino. And you know, look,

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Speaker 1: Corey Lewandowski, her chief political advisor, who is a special

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Speaker 1: Government assistantated DHS, has knows how to knife fight. And

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Speaker 1: it's not surprising to me that you start to see

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Speaker 1: DHS put out word that it was Stephen Miller who

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Speaker 1: essentially instructed Gnome to say what she said about Alex

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Speaker 1: pretty after the after the after the killing. Uh. And

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Speaker 1: then you have Stephen Miller immediately calling up Axios and saying, well,

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Speaker 1: the protocol we gave them, they violated the protocol. So

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Speaker 1: the point is, though you're you're you're seeing some public

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Speaker 1: in fighting and this can get contagious, and there's nothing

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Speaker 1: that Trump administration, And weirdly, we know the president doesn't

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Speaker 1: even mind it at times if people behind him are infighting.

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Speaker 1: But it's bad politics. It doesn't help things, but it'll

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Speaker 1: be interesting. I don't think anything shakes the President from

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Speaker 1: trusting Stephen Miller. I think he views Stephen Miller as

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Speaker 1: a loyal a loyalist of loyalists, so he will not

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Speaker 1: dump him. I don't think he feels that same attachment

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Speaker 1: to Christino. And the fact that you now have Republican

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Speaker 1: senators speaking out, Yes, they're the ones retiring, and one's

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Speaker 1: probably going to retire before the next time she runs

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Speaker 1: for reelection referring to Lisa Murkowski. It's likely they're speaking

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Speaker 1: for others who would like to see that happen too,

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Speaker 1: but they're not ready to say that, right, They're not

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Speaker 1: ready to go that far. But the point is is

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Speaker 1: that clearly the president has gotten the political message. Does

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Speaker 1: it change policy? Do we see any real changes in Minnesota?

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Speaker 1: Do we see a quiet sort of retreat? Right there's

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Speaker 1: you know, It's interesting Walls was a bit more diplomatic

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Speaker 1: about his conversations with the President and with Homan, the mayor.

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Speaker 1: Certainly it was diplomatic, but let's shall we say less so,

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Speaker 1: and wasn't ready to be very cooperative at all. Certainly

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Speaker 1: was diplomatic in tone, but things aren't you you're You're.

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Speaker 1: I think I think they sort of are now seeing

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Speaker 1: the writing on the wall. I think you throw in

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Speaker 1: the fact that a Republican guberatorial candidate decided to drop

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Speaker 1: out because he was embarrassed to be associated with the

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Speaker 1: party because of what was happening in the and the

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Speaker 1: killing of these two American citizens. So the the I

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Speaker 1: think we now we see the President was trying to

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Speaker 1: play clean up. I think he did about a C

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Speaker 1: plus job, if you want to know the truth. I

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Speaker 1: think the faster cleanup is firing Nome and turning the page.

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Speaker 1: The fact that he can't bring himself to do that

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Speaker 1: is going to drag this out. We now have the

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Speaker 1: report that it was two different ice officers decided to

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Speaker 1: shoot Freddy right, they had him subdued, they beat him up,

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Speaker 1: and then two of them decided to shoot him. You

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Speaker 1: had to assume it was since there were ten shots

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Speaker 1: that it was likely more than one person shot him.

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Speaker 1: But that's so that reports out there. It is one

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Speaker 1: of those things. If Christy Nome's not fired in the

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Speaker 1: next twenty four hours, then she's probably not going to

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Speaker 1: get fired, because this is one of those things. If

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Speaker 1: you're going to rip the band aid off, you'll rip

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Speaker 1: the band aid off, and you do it now. And

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Speaker 1: it's clear a whole bunch of people are trying to

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Speaker 1: get to him to do this. So I do think

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Speaker 1: the next twenty four to thirty six hours are pretty

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Speaker 1: probably means the way Trump world works, there are those

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Speaker 1: that are going to try to find a million different

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Speaker 1: ways to get to know. By the way, if you

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Speaker 1: tell me that the reason we all know about Tom

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Speaker 1: Homan and his bag of cash is because Lewandowski was

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Speaker 1: trying to knife him, it would shock nobody in how

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Speaker 1: this world works. The point being is it's going to

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Speaker 1: be a messy thirty six hours in no world politically,

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Speaker 1: and we know the president has been not wanting but

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Speaker 1: at this point he's made it more than a year

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Speaker 1: and he's only fired a national security advisor, right, so

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Speaker 1: at this point, look, will I think it's a giant

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Speaker 1: political gift to the Democrats if he doesn't fire her,

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Speaker 1: her very presence, there, her everything. She has zero credibility.

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Speaker 1: Republican senators are now saying she has zero ability. I

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Speaker 1: says zero credibility right now, it doesn't make sense to

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Speaker 1: keep her. And so, you know, like I said, I

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Speaker 1: I think I think this is uh. I think that

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Speaker 1: that her tenure is going to be measured in hours,

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Speaker 1: not days. But if it's not, it might be quite

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Speaker 1: the gift UH to Democrats. And but but what did this?

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Speaker 1: You know, if you think about how the month of

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Speaker 1: January is gone, if you're an elected Republican that's going

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Speaker 1: to be on the ballot twenty six and you're just

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Speaker 1: exhausted from all of this essentially chaos and instability that

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Speaker 1: the President continues to introduce. Whether it's you know, we

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Speaker 1: still have no path at democracy in Venezuela. That's starting

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Speaker 1: to get weird and odd are we We're just using

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Speaker 1: it as as as some sort of oil depot the

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Speaker 1: break with Canada. By the way, the Europeans and the

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Speaker 1: Indians just did a massive trade deal. So the President's

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Speaker 1: trade policy is creating all sorts of of economic partnerships

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Speaker 1: that do not include the United States, that all of

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Speaker 1: us are going to regret at some point, probably sooner

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Speaker 1: rather than later. But this incident might be the permission

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Speaker 1: slip that a lot of Republicans are going to use

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Speaker 1: to start to distance themselves from the from from the

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Speaker 1: more unpopular things of the Trump administration, especially if he's

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Speaker 1: going to be completely sort of if he's going to

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Speaker 1: be completely oblivious to the reality on the ground on

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Speaker 1: the economy. Because I do want to not lose sight

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Speaker 1: of why he went to Iowa, right he was there

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Speaker 1: to focus on affordability. I have to tell you he

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Speaker 1: couldn't have picked a worst state to try to highlight

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Speaker 1: his economic policies because Iowa has probably been at the

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Speaker 1: has been the punching bag to Trump's crazy tariff regime.

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Speaker 1: Iowa is now fiftieth. I was doing some research earlier

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Speaker 1: this week on this i was fiftieth in the nation

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Speaker 1: among fifty states in GDP growth in the last year.

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Speaker 1: It normally was sitting in the middle. And why is that?

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Speaker 1: slash chuck. So now I want to pivot to where

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Speaker 1: the President was trying to pivot today. Right today was

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Speaker 1: not supposed to be all about his ice operations in Minneapolis.

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Speaker 1: Today was the day he was supposed to pivot to

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Speaker 1: focusing on the economy, touting his economic record and essentially

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Speaker 1: asking for patients. And he chose the state of Iowa,

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Speaker 1: which was a curious choice. On one hand, he should

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Speaker 1: be there. He's got some work to do in Iowa.

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Speaker 1: He's got a lot of unhappy farmers. Iowa's economy not

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Speaker 1: in good shape at all, and at this very moment,

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Speaker 1: for a variety of reasons and I want to get

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Speaker 1: into that. But here he is going to Iowa today

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Speaker 1: to try to focus on affordability, and on the day

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Speaker 1: he leaves, this being Tuesday, and obviously you guys are

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Speaker 1: listening to this air. On Wednesday, we got some important

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Speaker 1: new information about consumers. And let's just say, consumers already

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Speaker 1: or behaving, are acting as if we're already in recession.

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Speaker 1: So we had some January numbers that showed us. Now, look,

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Speaker 1: there are two different surveys that came out on consumer confidence.

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Speaker 1: One factor's employment prospects into it and one does it right.

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Speaker 1: So on one side, yet the University of Michigan survey

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Speaker 1: that focuses more on pocketbook issues like gas prices and inflation.

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Speaker 1: And on the other one that came out today it

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Speaker 1: was the Conference Board Index, which is much more sensitive

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Speaker 1: to the labor market and jobs, and one showed basically

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Speaker 1: stagnation with a tiny bit of relief. The Michigan survey

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Speaker 1: already those super low, but the Conference Board numbers that

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Speaker 1: fell through the floor. So let me start with that one.

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Speaker 1: The Conference Sports Consumer Confidence Index just cub lapsed in January.

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Speaker 1: Top line number fell to eighty four point five, which

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Speaker 1: is down from ninety four point two in December. These

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Speaker 1: are their marks here. That doesn't mean it was a

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Speaker 1: bad month. This is the lowest reading on this measurement

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Speaker 1: on this scale since May of twenty fourteen, so it's lower.

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Speaker 1: This confidence number is lower than during any moment during

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Speaker 1: the pandemic, any moment during the pandemic. And even more

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Speaker 1: concerning is the expectations index in this measurement, which plungs

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Speaker 1: is sixty five point one. What does that mean? What's

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Speaker 1: the expectations that things are not going to be good

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Speaker 1: in this labor market? Economists generally treat any number below

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Speaker 1: eighty as a warning sign that a recession is likely

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Speaker 1: within the next year. Well, this this number was sixty five,

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Speaker 1: so this isn't theoretical fear. There's already labor market and anxiety.

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Speaker 1: This is what the public is feeling. This is not

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Speaker 1: about any measurement numbers. This is just public sentiment and

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Speaker 1: obviously our economy and consumer confidence. These things matter. So

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Speaker 1: the share of consumers who say jobs are plentiful fell

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Speaker 1: to under twenty five percent, while those saying that jobs

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Speaker 1: are hard to get right now rose to twenty one percent.

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Speaker 1: So that gap that is closing fast and when that closes,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I means you're seeing more just as many

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Speaker 1: people say jobs are plentiful as they are hard to get.

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Speaker 1: One number is going down and one number is going up.

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Speaker 1: So consumers are now starting to worry about their job security.

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Speaker 1: If they have one. Confidence doesn't bounce back quickly based

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Speaker 1: on that. No tax refund is going to make you

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Speaker 1: feel better about jobs. Because what's helping to underline this

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Speaker 1: issue of jobs, Well, there's all sorts of reasons. Right

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Speaker 1: when they asked respondents, they pointed to tariffs and trade policy,

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Speaker 1: which is and I'm going to get to eye well

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Speaker 1: here in a minute, creates a lot of uncertainty, especially

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Speaker 1: if you're in if you're at all in the agricultural space,

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Speaker 1: a ton of any of the rising cost of health

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Speaker 1: insurance that is leading to more anxiety. And then of

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Speaker 1: course there's ai job displacement fears. Now, the other survey

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Speaker 1: at the University of Michigan survey showed modest improvement, but okay,

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Speaker 1: we're talking a January reading of fifty six point four,

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Speaker 1: which is terrible, up from fifty two point nine in December,

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Speaker 1: which was awful. Right, it's still twenty points lower than

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Speaker 1: it was a year ago. Consumer confidence was better at

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Speaker 1: the start of Trump's presidency than it is essentially now

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Speaker 1: one year in, and it is barely above historic lows.

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Speaker 1: So while you can say, hey, it ticked up, if

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Speaker 1: you wanted to really spin and lie to people, you

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Speaker 1: could say the consumer confidence survey at the University of

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Speaker 1: Michigan ticked up from December to January. But what they

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Speaker 1: don't tell you is that it's near historic lows. So

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Speaker 1: inflation expectations for the year ahead have eased a little

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Speaker 1: bit to four percent, but that's still above the two

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Speaker 1: percent expectation. The longer term expectations ticked up to three

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Speaker 1: point three percent. Again not good. It's a sign that

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Speaker 1: Americans don't fully trust the trajectory of inflation, even though

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Speaker 1: the President claimed on Tuesday they've already solved it. No

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Speaker 1: more inflation, Inflation's over. That's not what the public is feeling,

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Speaker 1: and that's not what's actually happening. So and guests who

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Speaker 1: what's interesting here on this front, by the way, is

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Speaker 1: that gen Z was actually the most optimistic about finding

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Speaker 1: a job than anybody older than that, and gen Z's

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Speaker 1: pretty pessimistic about everything else. I don't know if that's

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Speaker 1: cause for comfort. But I want to focus on the

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Speaker 1: Iowa story because you know what's unique of what's interesting

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Speaker 1: about this is one of the first states George W.

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Speaker 1: Bush would go to to tout the economy when he

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Speaker 1: was beginning his reelection was Iowa. One of the first

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Speaker 1: states that Barack Obama went to would be Iowa. And

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Speaker 1: here's Donald Trump, essentially his first foray in the campaign season.

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Speaker 1: He goes to Iowa. You might argue, how Iowa goes

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Speaker 1: or how Iowa perceives the economy, so goes the perception

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Speaker 1: of America on this one. So let's go back to

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Speaker 1: Iowa because the confidence gap explains the disconnect that we're

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Speaker 1: seeing on the ground there. So the presidents in clive

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Speaker 1: Iowa talking about affordability and saying economy's great prices are

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Speaker 1: coming way down, that isn't what the data is showing.

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Speaker 1: According to the Philadelphia Fed State Index, Iowa now ranks

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Speaker 1: fiftieth in the nation for economic growth dead frickin last

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Speaker 1: That hasn't happened since the farm crisis of the eighties.

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Speaker 1: Iowa was not just lagging, it is anchoring national growth.

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Speaker 1: It is pulling us back. And you know what the

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Speaker 1: You know what the reason is, tars, It is teriffs.

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Speaker 1: So when you combine collapsing labor confidence nationally with Iowa's

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Speaker 1: local economic stress, now you see the messaging problem this

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Speaker 1: White House has. On the farm front, Iowa corn is

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Speaker 1: still trading roughly forty four cents below the cost of production.

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Speaker 1: So even though the administration is throwing twelve million dollars

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Speaker 1: in this bridge assistance program, it's not fixing it. It's

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Speaker 1: simply going to put off the financial reckoning that these

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Speaker 1: farmers are facing. And as the Farmers Union put it,

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Speaker 1: using terraffs to fix trade is like quote, trying to

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Speaker 1: change a light bulb with a hammer. It doesn't work.

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Speaker 1: Then there's manufacturing, which also is not a great story

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Speaker 1: in the state of idle plants across the Cedar Rapids

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Speaker 1: Waterloo corridor. Waterloo's where my dad grew up, so I

428
00:26:48,240 --> 00:26:51,359
Speaker 1: always care about Waterloo a lot. They're stuck in low higher,

429
00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:55,960
Speaker 1: low fire holding pattern. Right, all of these there's some

430
00:26:56,280 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 1: issues with manufacturing that a they're trying to wait for

431
00:27:00,040 --> 00:27:03,960
Speaker 1: some stability on the terraff front and anything you import

432
00:27:04,560 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 1: to manufacture things. And of course the other is AI.

433
00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:09,720
Speaker 1: What is AI going to replace, and so you don't

434
00:27:09,800 --> 00:27:12,600
Speaker 1: have a lot of people filling heads on this. But

435
00:27:12,760 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 1: the tariffs on specialized machinery have pushed costs up ten

436
00:27:17,840 --> 00:27:20,920
Speaker 1: to fifty percent, depending on the machinery you have to import,

437
00:27:21,520 --> 00:27:24,200
Speaker 1: and so that kills any return on investment if you're

438
00:27:24,200 --> 00:27:27,560
Speaker 1: trying to expand your manufacturing. So, while the White House

439
00:27:27,600 --> 00:27:32,520
Speaker 1: wants to talk affordability, Iowa businesses are in a defensive crouch.

440
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:37,720
Speaker 1: They're just waiting for this storm to pass. They're not growing.

441
00:27:38,960 --> 00:27:40,680
Speaker 1: So why is he there? Well, we know why he's there.

442
00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:44,520
Speaker 1: Iowa is home to three competitive house races, a competitive

443
00:27:44,520 --> 00:27:48,160
Speaker 1: governor's race, and a competitive center race. It is it's basically,

444
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:53,960
Speaker 1: if Iowa goes blue, the Democrats are going to win

445
00:27:54,040 --> 00:27:58,359
Speaker 1: the House and the Senate. Right, and it's possible. You've

446
00:27:58,400 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 1: got a strong gubernatorial candidate. I'm saying, you've got an

447
00:28:03,080 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 1: open Senate. See, and you've now got one open House

448
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:10,520
Speaker 1: seat and two three of the four are already super competitive.

449
00:28:10,560 --> 00:28:13,400
Speaker 1: You have two open house seats total because the Randy

450
00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:18,840
Speaker 1: Fiinstra is running for governor. So on the one hand,

451
00:28:19,320 --> 00:28:22,720
Speaker 1: Iowa is a place that needs a lot of help.

452
00:28:22,760 --> 00:28:27,200
Speaker 1: If you're a Republican On the other hand, Trump's messaging

453
00:28:27,680 --> 00:28:30,200
Speaker 1: is all over the map and it isn't working. And

454
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:35,240
Speaker 1: on the economy, particularly on the farm economy, Trump's economic

455
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:40,440
Speaker 1: policies have damaged, have hurt the average Iowa more than

456
00:28:40,480 --> 00:28:43,960
Speaker 1: in other places, and so it's a curious place for

457
00:28:44,040 --> 00:28:46,720
Speaker 1: them to go. Like I said, on one hand, it's necessary.

458
00:28:47,480 --> 00:28:51,640
Speaker 1: On the other hand, you know, I'm not sure his

459
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:57,160
Speaker 1: personal popularity is going to overcome this economic angst that

460
00:28:57,360 --> 00:29:00,640
Speaker 1: is gripping Iowa and a lot of folks on this front.

461
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:05,520
Speaker 1: So look, I think he's trying to fix his trying

462
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:08,360
Speaker 1: to do some damage control on Ice. I don't know

463
00:29:08,400 --> 00:29:12,320
Speaker 1: if he's moved fast enough, but it's clear a whole

464
00:29:12,320 --> 00:29:14,480
Speaker 1: bunch of people are getting in his ear and trying

465
00:29:14,520 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 1: to get him a fire. No, but the bigger problem

466
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 1: might be and the bigger issue is the fact that

467
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 1: their economic message is just not resonating because how people

468
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:31,160
Speaker 1: are actually feeling in this economy versus what they're saying

469
00:29:31,920 --> 00:29:35,160
Speaker 1: are two different things. And you see it, people do

470
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:40,800
Speaker 1: not feel good about this economy. And ultimately, yes, I

471
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:44,880
Speaker 1: think Ice and Greenland and all these foreign policy excapades,

472
00:29:44,920 --> 00:29:48,560
Speaker 1: they're all adding to the feel of instability, And I

473
00:29:48,640 --> 00:29:53,440
Speaker 1: think ultimately it's that instability that's gonna that could really

474
00:29:54,600 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 1: do sort of have sort of dual motivating factors. Right,

475
00:29:57,760 --> 00:30:01,000
Speaker 1: one will demotivate his base vote who don't feel very

476
00:30:01,040 --> 00:30:03,239
Speaker 1: good about they don't know what they're fighting for at

477
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:08,480
Speaker 1: this point, and it really will motivate those that want

478
00:30:08,520 --> 00:30:12,960
Speaker 1: to see a check on Donald Trump. One other point, boy,

479
00:30:13,040 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 1: has Donald Trump messed up his gun politics? Now? Do

480
00:30:15,640 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 1: I think that you're going to have suddenly the NRA

481
00:30:21,320 --> 00:30:23,840
Speaker 1: spending money on behalf of Democrats? Know? In fact, it's

482
00:30:23,880 --> 00:30:25,760
Speaker 1: been funny to watch the NRA. The NRA is the

483
00:30:25,800 --> 00:30:29,240
Speaker 1: only gun rights group that hasn't condemned the president's remarks

484
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:33,960
Speaker 1: from earlier on Tuesday where he said that Alex Prenny

485
00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:35,840
Speaker 1: shouldn't have brought a gun there. What was he doing

486
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,520
Speaker 1: bringing a gun there? And it was like, I mean,

487
00:30:38,800 --> 00:30:42,800
Speaker 1: he was using what gun rights groups would say, was,

488
00:30:42,920 --> 00:30:46,080
Speaker 1: you know, was not sort of accepting the premise that

489
00:30:46,160 --> 00:30:49,640
Speaker 1: a constitutional right is a right and that you don't

490
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 1: get to be seen as suspicious just because you choose

491
00:30:52,840 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 1: to exercise a constitutional right. It's been funny to watch

492
00:30:57,680 --> 00:31:01,040
Speaker 1: gun right supporters just sort of panic about this but

493
00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 1: there's you know, this is a lesson for everybody that

494
00:31:03,440 --> 00:31:09,760
Speaker 1: signed up with Trump. Trump evenged Trump eventually will let

495
00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:12,680
Speaker 1: you down. He lets every one of his supporters on

496
00:31:12,880 --> 00:31:20,080
Speaker 1: something down eventually. And this was what his primary opponents

497
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,960
Speaker 1: in twenty sixteen were going bonkers about and complaining about

498
00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,440
Speaker 1: and frustrated about. Right the Ted Cruz. They were all like,

499
00:31:27,600 --> 00:31:31,760
Speaker 1: going to these specific interest groups, including the NRA. You

500
00:31:31,800 --> 00:31:34,080
Speaker 1: can't trust him on guns, you can't do this yet.

501
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:35,960
Speaker 1: You can't trust him on any of these things. You

502
00:31:36,000 --> 00:31:39,000
Speaker 1: can't trust him on abortion, you know. And certainly he's

503
00:31:39,040 --> 00:31:41,880
Speaker 1: appointed judges that have made the NRA and the right

504
00:31:41,920 --> 00:31:47,520
Speaker 1: to life community very happy. But Donald Trump's never with anybody.

505
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: Donald Trump's with one person, himself, and he will throw

506
00:31:51,920 --> 00:31:56,800
Speaker 1: any supportive anybody he supports, or anybody that supports him,

507
00:31:57,000 --> 00:31:59,880
Speaker 1: he will throw them under the bus to protect himself

508
00:32:00,600 --> 00:32:04,880
Speaker 1: from whatever he's got to protect himself. And what are

509
00:32:04,960 --> 00:32:09,000
Speaker 1: gun right supporters learning this week that he does not

510
00:32:09,600 --> 00:32:13,280
Speaker 1: really care about their issue, because if he did, he

511
00:32:13,280 --> 00:32:16,840
Speaker 1: wouldn't have been saying what he's been saying about the

512
00:32:16,920 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: circumstances with Alan's protect Having good life insurance is incredibly important,

513
00:32:25,480 --> 00:32:28,160
Speaker 1: I know from personal experience. I was sixteen when my

514
00:32:28,280 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 1: father passed away. We didn't have any money. He didn't

515
00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:33,840
Speaker 1: leave us in the best shape. My mother single mother,

516
00:32:34,040 --> 00:32:37,520
Speaker 1: now widow, myself sixteen trying to figure out how am

517
00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:39,920
Speaker 1: I going to pay for college and lo and behold,

518
00:32:40,400 --> 00:32:43,120
Speaker 1: my dad had one life insurance policy that we found.

519
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 1: It wasn't a lot, but it was important at the time,

520
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,480
Speaker 1: and it's why I was able to go to college.

521
00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:52,440
Speaker 1: Little did he know how important that would be in

522
00:32:52,800 --> 00:32:56,280
Speaker 1: that moment. Well, guess what. That's why I am here

523
00:32:56,360 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 1: to tell you about Etho's life. They can provide you

524
00:32:59,160 --> 00:33:02,320
Speaker 1: with peace of mind, owing your family is protected even

525
00:33:02,360 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 1: if the worst comes to pass. Ethos is an online

526
00:33:05,240 --> 00:33:08,880
Speaker 1: platform that makes getting life insurance fast and easy, all

527
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:11,840
Speaker 1: designed to protect your family's future in minutes, not months.

528
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:16,080
Speaker 1: There's no complicated process, and it's one hundred percent online.

529
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:19,280
Speaker 1: There's no medical exam require you just answer a few

530
00:33:19,320 --> 00:33:21,640
Speaker 1: health questions online. You can get a quote in as

531
00:33:21,680 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 1: little as ten minutes, and you can get same day

532
00:33:23,800 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 1: coverage without ever leaving your home. You can get up

533
00:33:27,800 --> 00:33:30,280
Speaker 1: to three million dollars in coverage, and some policies start

534
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: as low as two dollars a day that would be

535
00:33:32,280 --> 00:33:36,000
Speaker 1: billed monthly. As of March twenty twenty five, Business Insider

536
00:33:36,080 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 1: named Ethos the number one no medical exam instant life

537
00:33:39,600 --> 00:33:44,120
Speaker 1: insurance provider. So protect your family with life insurance from Ethos.

538
00:33:44,440 --> 00:33:47,400
Speaker 1: Get your free quot at ethos dot com slash chuck.

539
00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:53,120
Speaker 1: So again that's Ethos dot com slash chuck. Application times

540
00:33:53,160 --> 00:33:55,680
Speaker 1: may vary and the rates themselves may vary as well,

541
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:58,920
Speaker 1: but trust me, life insurance is something you should really

542
00:33:58,960 --> 00:34:05,640
Speaker 1: think about, especially if you've got a growing family. All Right,

543
00:34:05,720 --> 00:34:08,319
Speaker 1: it is Wednesday, which means I've got a new top

544
00:34:08,440 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 1: five list, Top top five, top top And while I

545
00:34:17,800 --> 00:34:22,960
Speaker 1: am tempted to stick to sports themes again, I'm not

546
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:25,719
Speaker 1: going to do that. It's back to politics. So the

547
00:34:25,800 --> 00:34:29,200
Speaker 1: top five list I owe you for this week is

548
00:34:29,719 --> 00:34:33,239
Speaker 1: Governor's and updating my Governor's list. And look, this isn't

549
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: going to budge all that month throughout the year, but

550
00:34:36,520 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 1: if it does, because basically, I think there are five

551
00:34:39,840 --> 00:34:44,520
Speaker 1: governors races that are really likely to flip, and then

552
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 1: there are another four or five that are going to

553
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,520
Speaker 1: be really interesting but probably won't flip. And as you know,

554
00:34:49,640 --> 00:34:53,920
Speaker 1: my rankings are most likely to change parties. That's that's

555
00:34:54,000 --> 00:34:56,560
Speaker 1: what number one means. And if you know I were

556
00:34:56,640 --> 00:34:58,319
Speaker 1: ranking all the way to thirty six, there's thirty six

557
00:34:58,360 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 1: scubernatory elections. Thirty six would be least likely to change parties.

558
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:05,879
Speaker 1: So I guess that would be Idaho, right is where

559
00:35:05,880 --> 00:35:08,680
Speaker 1: you put that? Maybe you put Vermont right above Idaho.

560
00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:11,840
Speaker 1: But this top five list, it is interesting in the

561
00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,000
Speaker 1: governor's front that you basically have five that you know

562
00:35:15,200 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 1: for sure are either already going to flip. Right, my

563
00:35:20,200 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 1: number one, and it's been number one the last couple

564
00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:26,719
Speaker 1: of months that I've done this. The governor's seat most

565
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:30,880
Speaker 1: likely to flip continues for me to be Kansas. Kansas

566
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,800
Speaker 1: is this is a red state that has just wrapping

567
00:35:34,880 --> 00:35:37,759
Speaker 1: up two terms of a democratic governor. Kansas has been,

568
00:35:37,840 --> 00:35:39,200
Speaker 1: as I like to say, it's been a bit of

569
00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:42,600
Speaker 1: a windshield wiper when it comes to it's governor's eight

570
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,319
Speaker 1: years with one party, eight years with the next party,

571
00:35:45,440 --> 00:35:47,279
Speaker 1: eight years with the other. That's kind of what the

572
00:35:47,320 --> 00:35:51,359
Speaker 1: twenty first century has been about for Kansas. And uh, well,

573
00:35:51,640 --> 00:35:57,960
Speaker 1: it's what'll be interesting here is that this moment comes

574
00:35:58,480 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 1: when it looks like the national environment and the wind

575
00:36:01,320 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 1: is going to be blowing in the direction of the Democrats.

576
00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:07,640
Speaker 1: Does that give Democrats a better shot at winning? I

577
00:36:08,239 --> 00:36:12,520
Speaker 1: it's been a to get a third straight term. That's

578
00:36:12,600 --> 00:36:15,160
Speaker 1: been very difficult. Then get so, but I have to

579
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 1: put just just playing the numbers game, most likely seek

580
00:36:19,120 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 1: to change parties at this point in the governors is

581
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 1: Kansas at one. Number two you know I'm going to

582
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:32,600
Speaker 1: continue is open seats are always more easier to flip

583
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:37,400
Speaker 1: than incumbants. It's very rare. Single hardest thing to do

584
00:36:38,520 --> 00:36:40,840
Speaker 1: in politics is to oust a and comb and president.

585
00:36:40,920 --> 00:36:42,920
Speaker 1: And the second hardest thing to do is to oust

586
00:36:43,280 --> 00:36:48,600
Speaker 1: an incumbent governor. They very rarely get ousted. Voters usually

587
00:36:48,960 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 1: if it's four year terms, want to give at least

588
00:36:52,280 --> 00:36:57,200
Speaker 1: you know, governors have to be just absolutely debacles or

589
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:01,000
Speaker 1: in terrible political environments to not get a second term.

590
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:03,680
Speaker 1: But in my top five list, I have two incombent

591
00:37:03,719 --> 00:37:05,360
Speaker 1: governors who are I'm putting in there because these are

592
00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:07,239
Speaker 1: going to be coin flip races, but neither one of

593
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 1: them are in the second slot. In the second slot

594
00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:15,200
Speaker 1: is the state I profiled earlier. I'm putting Iowa on

595
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:19,080
Speaker 1: that second slot after going through that economic and I

596
00:37:19,160 --> 00:37:25,320
Speaker 1: even went deeper. The good news for Iowa state government

597
00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 1: is that they have a rainy day fund and they've

598
00:37:28,280 --> 00:37:31,200
Speaker 1: had a budget surplus. The bad news is it's going

599
00:37:31,280 --> 00:37:34,319
Speaker 1: to have to be depleted big time. Vouchers has been

600
00:37:34,400 --> 00:37:36,760
Speaker 1: costing the budget money. They are going to be running

601
00:37:36,800 --> 00:37:40,880
Speaker 1: a deficit this year. Vouchers is costing them money. The

602
00:37:41,040 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 1: lack of these tariffs are costing them money because they're

603
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:49,279
Speaker 1: just getting They're exporting less corn, exporting less soybean, so

604
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:52,200
Speaker 1: all of that is hurting the budget a little bit.

605
00:37:52,280 --> 00:37:54,759
Speaker 1: They're not going to have to do any cuts, but

606
00:37:54,760 --> 00:37:57,040
Speaker 1: they're going to have to tap in to this raindy

607
00:37:57,120 --> 00:38:00,360
Speaker 1: day fund. And they have voucherized their public schools system

608
00:38:01,160 --> 00:38:04,640
Speaker 1: that has added costs to this system as well. So

609
00:38:07,080 --> 00:38:10,520
Speaker 1: I think the environment is just in a really bad place.

610
00:38:10,600 --> 00:38:15,600
Speaker 1: The only thing going for Iowa Republicans as demographics, but

611
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:20,400
Speaker 1: the economic environment in the state, the perception of the

612
00:38:20,480 --> 00:38:24,320
Speaker 1: schools in the state is all of it is in

613
00:38:24,400 --> 00:38:27,520
Speaker 1: a bad place for Republicans. And they're the party in

614
00:38:27,640 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 1: power in the state. Right They've kind of had a

615
00:38:30,080 --> 00:38:34,000
Speaker 1: recent juggernaut. This is a former swing state in the

616
00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 1: frankly most of my adult life. It's i always been

617
00:38:37,440 --> 00:38:40,600
Speaker 1: a swing state. Since Donald Trump came on the scene,

618
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 1: he's been a it's been more red than purple. Like

619
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:50,160
Speaker 1: I said, I think this situation is and the more

620
00:38:50,200 --> 00:38:53,880
Speaker 1: I dug into it, Democrats have a very good candidate here,

621
00:38:54,000 --> 00:38:56,360
Speaker 1: one that's going to be very hard to link to

622
00:38:56,400 --> 00:39:01,239
Speaker 1: the far left. Rob saying I said this before. He's

623
00:39:01,280 --> 00:39:04,560
Speaker 1: been on this podcast, you know, he he I think

624
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:06,200
Speaker 1: I can quote him as saying, the only reason he's

625
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:08,439
Speaker 1: running as a Democrat is there was no he didn't

626
00:39:08,480 --> 00:39:12,279
Speaker 1: view another viable way to be on the ballot. So

627
00:39:12,520 --> 00:39:16,000
Speaker 1: he is running a very sort of independent minded campaign.

628
00:39:16,040 --> 00:39:19,080
Speaker 1: But he hasn't been He hasn't been shy about being

629
00:39:19,080 --> 00:39:24,120
Speaker 1: a partisan on this front. So with him leaving the tickets,

630
00:39:24,680 --> 00:39:28,160
Speaker 1: it's uh. And the current economic conditions of the state,

631
00:39:29,480 --> 00:39:33,040
Speaker 1: never mind the national climate. That's why I have Iowa

632
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:36,520
Speaker 1: right now in the second slot. Number three is Michigan.

633
00:39:37,400 --> 00:39:42,120
Speaker 1: Obviously the three way race. It's still there's been flying

634
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,680
Speaker 1: a little bit under the radar, but polling consistently seems

635
00:39:45,719 --> 00:39:48,239
Speaker 1: to show and this is one where I mean the

636
00:39:49,520 --> 00:39:51,759
Speaker 1: if there, I think the Republicans would have a hard

637
00:39:51,800 --> 00:39:55,080
Speaker 1: time winning this without Mike Duggan running as an independent.

638
00:39:56,360 --> 00:40:00,000
Speaker 1: He's in the low twenties, which puts him in third place.

639
00:40:01,320 --> 00:40:04,000
Speaker 1: He continues to perform very well in and around Detroit,

640
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 1: much less well in the rest of the state, while

641
00:40:06,960 --> 00:40:09,960
Speaker 1: both the Republican and the DEMO likely Democratic nominee John

642
00:40:10,000 --> 00:40:13,600
Speaker 1: James and Jocelyn Benson both do better outside of Detroit,

643
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,319
Speaker 1: which is why their neck and neck. But the fact

644
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:20,160
Speaker 1: is their neck and neck because Dugan is pulling from

645
00:40:20,200 --> 00:40:22,960
Speaker 1: both parties. He is not just pulling from the Democrats.

646
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:26,640
Speaker 1: But obviously if he can be in, if he's in

647
00:40:26,719 --> 00:40:30,560
Speaker 1: the mid twenties, that's a big chunk of Democratic vote

648
00:40:30,600 --> 00:40:34,160
Speaker 1: coming out of Wayne County that's going to Duggan. That

649
00:40:34,280 --> 00:40:36,320
Speaker 1: puts Benson in a tough spot. So you have to

650
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:40,399
Speaker 1: put Michigan in the in this very turbulent top five,

651
00:40:40,520 --> 00:40:42,719
Speaker 1: So I sit him in three and then at four

652
00:40:42,760 --> 00:40:45,239
Speaker 1: and five and you can interchange them. It's the two

653
00:40:45,880 --> 00:40:50,759
Speaker 1: Southwest governors in the swing states, Katie Hodgs Democrat, Joe

654
00:40:50,840 --> 00:40:55,520
Speaker 1: Lombardo Republican in Nevada Katie Hobbs in Arizona, both narrowly

655
00:40:55,600 --> 00:41:01,920
Speaker 1: one in twenty two. Both are already in neck and

656
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:06,960
Speaker 1: neck races. Now, I think Lombardo, if I were to,

657
00:41:07,160 --> 00:41:10,480
Speaker 1: I probably put Hobbs as slightly more vulnerable losing in

658
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:14,719
Speaker 1: Arizona than Lombardo and Nevada. I feel like he's a

659
00:41:14,840 --> 00:41:17,960
Speaker 1: slightly better political athlete. But the political climate, right, You'd

660
00:41:18,040 --> 00:41:20,800
Speaker 1: rather be a Democrat in this climate than a Republican

661
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:24,440
Speaker 1: in this climate. And we know Nevada is super sensitive

662
00:41:25,239 --> 00:41:28,840
Speaker 1: to the economy, and as this consumer economy continues to crash.

663
00:41:29,440 --> 00:41:35,040
Speaker 1: And oh, by the way, a lot of Canadians had

664
00:41:35,120 --> 00:41:38,440
Speaker 1: been traveling to Las Vegas. There's been a noticeable downturn

665
00:41:39,440 --> 00:41:43,880
Speaker 1: in visitors to Las Vegas, fewer international vitors, excuse me,

666
00:41:43,960 --> 00:41:49,600
Speaker 1: visitors to Las Vegas becomes it can be directly attributed

667
00:41:50,080 --> 00:41:55,080
Speaker 1: to Donald Trump and his policies. So I just think

668
00:41:55,880 --> 00:41:59,520
Speaker 1: this is this is like Iowa. I think Joel Lombardo

669
00:41:59,719 --> 00:42:02,880
Speaker 1: is trying to walk the line, and he knows he

670
00:42:02,960 --> 00:42:06,640
Speaker 1: governs the state that that is that's pretty purple. It's

671
00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 1: probably as swingy as you get in the country. There

672
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 1: may be forces here that that make it very tough,

673
00:42:15,640 --> 00:42:19,400
Speaker 1: and he's going to face the sitting ag. All the

674
00:42:19,480 --> 00:42:21,200
Speaker 1: polling shows is gonna be one point race, is gonna

675
00:42:21,200 --> 00:42:26,520
Speaker 1: be really expensive race too, But there's no But the

676
00:42:26,600 --> 00:42:33,759
Speaker 1: point is those five Kansas, Iowa, Michigan, Arizona, Nevada. I

677
00:42:33,840 --> 00:42:37,239
Speaker 1: think those are going to be the most likely to

678
00:42:37,320 --> 00:42:39,920
Speaker 1: flip over over and above everyone. The other ones that

679
00:42:39,960 --> 00:42:43,720
Speaker 1: I'm watching that they could have could get competitive, Georgia

680
00:42:43,760 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 1: could get competitive. I'm very curious to see how that

681
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:50,839
Speaker 1: plays out. I just think that the Democratic race still

682
00:42:51,120 --> 00:42:55,040
Speaker 1: need both both primaries need time to develop. Wisconsin, same

683
00:42:55,120 --> 00:43:02,440
Speaker 1: thing again. I probably just towards Democrats slightly being favored

684
00:43:02,480 --> 00:43:05,520
Speaker 1: there just because of the overall political climate. Then there's

685
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,960
Speaker 1: Ohio and Florida, where I think Republicans are favored in both.

686
00:43:08,080 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 1: But if you told me those races got very competitive

687
00:43:10,840 --> 00:43:14,640
Speaker 1: come October, those wouldn't it wouldn't surprise me at all.

688
00:43:14,800 --> 00:43:17,839
Speaker 1: So I think that's how i'd put it. I think

689
00:43:17,880 --> 00:43:22,120
Speaker 1: that you have sort of nine to ten truly competitive

690
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:26,360
Speaker 1: D versus are races. You know, anything else that pops

691
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:31,200
Speaker 1: on the radar, my guess it's because either there's a

692
00:43:31,360 --> 00:43:34,800
Speaker 1: really bad incumbent, you know, scandal or something that that

693
00:43:35,080 --> 00:43:39,560
Speaker 1: that tags an incumbent or an incumbent party, or just

694
00:43:39,680 --> 00:43:42,120
Speaker 1: the national climate collapses for one party or the other.

695
00:43:42,719 --> 00:43:45,719
Speaker 1: But for now, those five that I ranked, there those

696
00:43:45,760 --> 00:43:49,960
Speaker 1: other four that I mentioned, and that's that's that's the

697
00:43:50,040 --> 00:43:52,160
Speaker 1: lion's share of how I'm watching governor's races so far

698
00:43:52,719 --> 00:43:55,960
Speaker 1: for twenty twenty six. All Right, Before I take some questions,

699
00:43:56,080 --> 00:44:03,000
Speaker 1: I do want to spend a few minutes about the

700
00:44:03,239 --> 00:44:07,480
Speaker 1: about what's about to happen at the Washington Post. Just look,

701
00:44:07,520 --> 00:44:10,680
Speaker 1: as a Washingtonian the idea that we're about to lose

702
00:44:10,680 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 1: our local newspaper, and I say, uh, lose it's I

703
00:44:18,360 --> 00:44:22,400
Speaker 1: think we're I think if the cuts that are coming

704
00:44:23,120 --> 00:44:26,040
Speaker 1: that are rumored to be coming, essentially gutting of sports,

705
00:44:26,880 --> 00:44:29,960
Speaker 1: gutting of the international desk, gutting of local which we've

706
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:32,080
Speaker 1: been watching. At this point, I don't know what the

707
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:35,400
Speaker 1: Washington Post is anymore. If this is uh, if this

708
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:45,680
Speaker 1: what's happening. But this, I don't know why Bezos has

709
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:48,880
Speaker 1: decided to just gut the newspaper. This is still a

710
00:44:49,000 --> 00:44:55,120
Speaker 1: rounding air for him financially, and I don't even understand

711
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:58,719
Speaker 1: what the vision is. Right will Lewis, the CEO, keeps

712
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:01,720
Speaker 1: describing We're gonna have a fun fundamental transformation of the paper.

713
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:05,799
Speaker 1: But there's never been an articulation of what the transformation

714
00:45:05,960 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 1: means beyond layoffs, and all anybody has gotten out of

715
00:45:09,600 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 1: it is layoffs. Just to put some numbers to this,

716
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:17,720
Speaker 1: since will Lewis, since this new, you know, there's already

717
00:45:17,719 --> 00:45:20,120
Speaker 1: were two hundred and forty jobs were cut in late

718
00:45:20,200 --> 00:45:23,240
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. Then they had another four percent labor

719
00:45:23,280 --> 00:45:27,400
Speaker 1: force cut in twenty twenty five. Now there's talk of

720
00:45:27,480 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 1: another three hundred staffers at this point. I don't know

721
00:45:30,600 --> 00:45:35,120
Speaker 1: how many. How many are left, but another ten percent.

722
00:45:36,360 --> 00:45:43,600
Speaker 1: This is a lot, you know. The it is for

723
00:45:43,760 --> 00:45:48,800
Speaker 1: those that have followed just sports reporting for decades, the

724
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:52,880
Speaker 1: Washington Post is incubated pretty much. I promise you somebody

725
00:45:53,000 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 1: you liked in the national sports scene, the Washington Post

726
00:45:56,200 --> 00:46:00,279
Speaker 1: likely incubated that person, right, Whether it's Tony Kornheiser, like

727
00:46:00,480 --> 00:46:05,719
Speaker 1: Well Bond, you know it is David Aldridge. I can

728
00:46:05,840 --> 00:46:08,000
Speaker 1: you know there's I know I'm missing a whole bunch

729
00:46:08,040 --> 00:46:14,040
Speaker 1: of others. It's it's it's easily been one of the

730
00:46:14,719 --> 00:46:18,560
Speaker 1: most consequential and best sports pages in the country. And

731
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:22,160
Speaker 1: I don't know how you stay a successful local or

732
00:46:22,239 --> 00:46:25,440
Speaker 1: regional paper if you don't want to cover the community

733
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:30,120
Speaker 1: in addition to sort of covering the hard news. And

734
00:46:30,760 --> 00:46:34,680
Speaker 1: but that's apparently the decision that Bezos wants to make.

735
00:46:34,680 --> 00:46:38,040
Speaker 1: I mean that they're if you're not going to let

736
00:46:38,160 --> 00:46:40,920
Speaker 1: beat writers go to spring training to cover the Nationals

737
00:46:41,200 --> 00:46:43,480
Speaker 1: right or to do their job. You're not letting beat

738
00:46:43,520 --> 00:46:46,080
Speaker 1: writers go to away games, Well, they're not going to

739
00:46:46,080 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 1: be able to cover the team. I can cover the

740
00:46:48,200 --> 00:46:50,719
Speaker 1: team watching them on TV. Anybody can cover the team

741
00:46:50,760 --> 00:46:54,879
Speaker 1: watching them on TV. That isn't how journalism works. You've

742
00:46:54,880 --> 00:46:57,600
Speaker 1: got to be there. You've got to be at the hotels,

743
00:46:57,640 --> 00:46:59,239
Speaker 1: you've got to be on the planes. When you can

744
00:46:59,280 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 1: get there, it's the same thing. Can you can do.

745
00:47:02,760 --> 00:47:05,600
Speaker 1: You can cover eighty percent of what Trump does in

746
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:08,680
Speaker 1: a given day just watching a c Span feed or

747
00:47:08,719 --> 00:47:12,279
Speaker 1: watching various TV feeds or social media feeds. But if

748
00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 1: you're not in the building, you're not getting the nuance,

749
00:47:15,160 --> 00:47:19,120
Speaker 1: you're not getting the asides. That's how these reporting, that's

750
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:23,160
Speaker 1: how real reporting happens. But here's the weird. So all

751
00:47:23,239 --> 00:47:25,720
Speaker 1: this is happening and you have social media has been filled.

752
00:47:25,760 --> 00:47:31,320
Speaker 1: You have various reporters directly addressing Jeff Bezos on Twitter

753
00:47:31,680 --> 00:47:34,640
Speaker 1: begging him please don't do this. Please don't cut foreign,

754
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:40,160
Speaker 1: Please don't cut sports, please don't cut local. And so

755
00:47:41,200 --> 00:47:44,640
Speaker 1: what's what's Jeff Bezos doing right now? Somebody put some

756
00:47:44,760 --> 00:47:48,360
Speaker 1: math together here? Okay, because while The Post is reportedly

757
00:47:48,440 --> 00:47:52,040
Speaker 1: losing one hundred million dollars a year and cutting deeply

758
00:47:52,120 --> 00:47:56,359
Speaker 1: into the muscle of its newsroom, Jeff Bezos doesn't mind

759
00:47:56,719 --> 00:47:59,440
Speaker 1: flushing money down the toilet with some of his other's adventures.

760
00:48:00,120 --> 00:48:03,440
Speaker 1: Let me just pick one randomount of thin air. The

761
00:48:03,520 --> 00:48:10,360
Speaker 1: Amazon MGM Studios, which of course mister Bezos controls, just

762
00:48:10,440 --> 00:48:13,360
Speaker 1: approved a forty million dollar deal to acquire a documentary

763
00:48:13,400 --> 00:48:18,319
Speaker 1: about Millennia Trump. That's just the licensing fee. On top

764
00:48:18,360 --> 00:48:21,640
Speaker 1: of that, Amazon has committed and estimated thirty million dollars

765
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:26,880
Speaker 1: for a global marketing push. It is just fallen flat.

766
00:48:27,080 --> 00:48:32,760
Speaker 1: There's already reports that nobody's going few people are buying tickets.

767
00:48:33,640 --> 00:48:36,480
Speaker 1: This is not something that interests many people. He's very

768
00:48:36,600 --> 00:48:40,520
Speaker 1: unpopular right now, so nobody really cares about the Trumps

769
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:43,200
Speaker 1: at the moment. Right this is not the best time

770
00:48:43,239 --> 00:48:47,399
Speaker 1: to launch a movie about about the first Lady when

771
00:48:47,480 --> 00:48:49,959
Speaker 1: right now everybody's mad at the president. These are worst

772
00:48:50,040 --> 00:48:56,680
Speaker 1: numbers he's had ever, so forty million plus thirty five million, right,

773
00:48:56,800 --> 00:49:00,440
Speaker 1: seventy's that's just seventy five million. He's lighting that on fire.

774
00:49:00,920 --> 00:49:04,120
Speaker 1: That's seventy five million dollars just to genuflect for Trump.

775
00:49:05,680 --> 00:49:16,320
Speaker 1: But he's gonna gut the Washington Post forever because it's losing,

776
00:49:16,840 --> 00:49:19,319
Speaker 1: you know, it's it's losing money. He doesn't mind losing

777
00:49:19,400 --> 00:49:23,840
Speaker 1: money to make sure he gets his space contracts for

778
00:49:24,000 --> 00:49:29,240
Speaker 1: his space hobby, and I guess that's what he sees

779
00:49:29,320 --> 00:49:33,479
Speaker 1: that money as an investment for. But he's basically pissing away,

780
00:49:34,160 --> 00:49:38,399
Speaker 1: just throwing away seventy five million dollars for this Millennia movie,

781
00:49:41,560 --> 00:49:43,680
Speaker 1: which would be almost the same amount of money that

782
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:48,080
Speaker 1: would wipe out The Post's entire annual deficit. The point

783
00:49:48,160 --> 00:49:50,680
Speaker 1: is is that Jeff Bezos is making a choice. If

784
00:49:50,719 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 1: he wanted the Washington Post to succeed, he could have

785
00:49:53,560 --> 00:49:56,520
Speaker 1: invested in it, and in fact, for a while he

786
00:49:56,640 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 1: did and the Post. Nates Over did a pretty good

787
00:49:59,239 --> 00:50:01,560
Speaker 1: piece showing that, you know, when it came to sort

788
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:05,000
Speaker 1: of relevance and how often they were sighted and all

789
00:50:05,000 --> 00:50:06,960
Speaker 1: of this stuff, the Post and the Times were just

790
00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:11,600
Speaker 1: sort of neck and neck and so and the Times

791
00:50:11,680 --> 00:50:15,960
Speaker 1: decided that, okay, we've got more traffic, let's add more offerings.

792
00:50:16,040 --> 00:50:18,719
Speaker 1: And so they went crazy with the bundles right with

793
00:50:18,840 --> 00:50:21,440
Speaker 1: the games, and they bought the Athletic. They decided to

794
00:50:21,719 --> 00:50:23,360
Speaker 1: you know, yes, people were upset that they got rid

795
00:50:23,400 --> 00:50:26,120
Speaker 1: of the Times sports bureau, but they bought the best

796
00:50:27,000 --> 00:50:30,760
Speaker 1: sports news organization that was out there in the Athletic.

797
00:50:31,880 --> 00:50:36,319
Speaker 1: They've expanded their offerings, they've expanded their aperture, they've expanded

798
00:50:36,400 --> 00:50:40,839
Speaker 1: their bandwidth. Washington Post cut cut cut, got cut, cut cut,

799
00:50:41,880 --> 00:50:46,080
Speaker 1: and their traffic is collapsing. And outside of it right now,

800
00:50:46,120 --> 00:50:50,719
Speaker 1: their congressional team is still They have not, thankfully, they

801
00:50:50,840 --> 00:50:54,120
Speaker 1: have not gotten rid of their congressional team. It's an

802
00:50:54,160 --> 00:50:57,080
Speaker 1: A plus team, A man Paul Kine and that crew.

803
00:50:57,160 --> 00:50:59,439
Speaker 1: It's just an A plus team. Thank goodness. They haven't

804
00:50:59,480 --> 00:51:02,640
Speaker 1: wrecked that. But everything else they've wrecked. I mean, if

805
00:51:02,680 --> 00:51:05,200
Speaker 1: you're if you want to read the best of the

806
00:51:05,280 --> 00:51:09,440
Speaker 1: Washington Post, you subscribe to The Atlantic right now because

807
00:51:09,480 --> 00:51:12,320
Speaker 1: they've got some of the or the Wall Street Journal.

808
00:51:13,120 --> 00:51:17,240
Speaker 1: Both of them have have hired quite a few folks.

809
00:51:17,960 --> 00:51:23,480
Speaker 1: So it is it's been sad to see the basically

810
00:51:24,719 --> 00:51:28,040
Speaker 1: people that I've respected and read for years begging Jeff

811
00:51:28,120 --> 00:51:32,640
Speaker 1: Bezos not to do this. Right Ken Rosenthal, a former

812
00:51:32,920 --> 00:51:35,680
Speaker 1: Post he's a baseball guy. He put it pretty buntly.

813
00:51:36,760 --> 00:51:39,440
Speaker 1: Jeff Bezos's destruction of a great newspaper will be part

814
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:43,200
Speaker 1: of his legacy. Another former Post sports reporter, Rachel Nichols,

815
00:51:44,160 --> 00:51:47,040
Speaker 1: defended the sports desk. They thinking about gutting the sports desk,

816
00:51:47,080 --> 00:51:49,759
Speaker 1: which was which was an engine to that newsroom miss

817
00:51:49,800 --> 00:51:51,879
Speaker 1: she called it one is one of the best damn

818
00:51:51,920 --> 00:51:56,839
Speaker 1: reporting and writing groups on the planet. Anyway, I wish

819
00:51:57,040 --> 00:52:04,319
Speaker 1: if he doesn't want the focus, if he doesn't want

820
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:07,040
Speaker 1: the attention from the President for being an owner of

821
00:52:07,080 --> 00:52:12,080
Speaker 1: a news organization, don't got the news organization, don't do

822
00:52:12,239 --> 00:52:15,600
Speaker 1: a catching kill, which is what you're turning this into,

823
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:19,440
Speaker 1: mister Bezos, meaning you're going to essentially strangle the Washington

824
00:52:19,440 --> 00:52:22,040
Speaker 1: Post so it can no longer be a relevant news organization.

825
00:52:22,880 --> 00:52:27,400
Speaker 1: Sell it to somebody else who doesn't mind practicing journalism

826
00:52:27,440 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 1: without fear of favor, because you clearly don't want journalism

827
00:52:31,120 --> 00:52:34,239
Speaker 1: practice without fear of favor. You fear Donald Trump, How

828
00:52:34,280 --> 00:52:36,640
Speaker 1: do we know you spend seventy five million dollars on

829
00:52:36,760 --> 00:52:39,759
Speaker 1: a bullshit movie about Milennia. That's how much you fear

830
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:43,880
Speaker 1: Donald Trump. And you're choking the Washington Post and making

831
00:52:43,920 --> 00:52:47,360
Speaker 1: sure it's a less relevant organization. And never mind just

832
00:52:47,920 --> 00:52:50,880
Speaker 1: screwing the business of the Post. Who thinks it's a

833
00:52:50,920 --> 00:52:54,279
Speaker 1: good idea for the Washington Post to get smaller and

834
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:58,480
Speaker 1: to shrink its footprint and to not cover one of

835
00:52:58,560 --> 00:53:03,239
Speaker 1: the most important communities in America and no longer cover

836
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 1: it as a as a member of the community. It's

837
00:53:07,000 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 1: a strange decision. Here's the good news. I've been in

838
00:53:09,760 --> 00:53:12,320
Speaker 1: this independent space now for about a year or so.

839
00:53:15,560 --> 00:53:18,960
Speaker 1: There's going to be Here's here's what's said. Is in

840
00:53:19,280 --> 00:53:21,640
Speaker 1: a you know, in about a couple of years, somebody's

841
00:53:21,680 --> 00:53:23,640
Speaker 1: going to realize what a disaster this was for the

842
00:53:23,680 --> 00:53:25,879
Speaker 1: Post and they're going to try to bring everything back.

843
00:53:26,480 --> 00:53:30,319
Speaker 1: And I promise you there'll be some thriving, local independent

844
00:53:30,760 --> 00:53:34,919
Speaker 1: sports entity, just like Capital Weather Gang, which is really

845
00:53:34,920 --> 00:53:36,799
Speaker 1: it was its own entity and then the Post brought

846
00:53:36,840 --> 00:53:39,080
Speaker 1: it in. You're going to see it there. You're gonna

847
00:53:39,080 --> 00:53:44,439
Speaker 1: see and and the Washington community will. We'll support these things.

848
00:53:44,560 --> 00:53:48,600
Speaker 1: They want a local community newspaper, and the Washington Post

849
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:53,120
Speaker 1: still was that paper. But ever since they brought in

850
00:53:53,360 --> 00:53:56,360
Speaker 1: this Will Lewis, he decided to turn it into some

851
00:53:57,200 --> 00:54:01,320
Speaker 1: cheap Fleet Street rag. I mean, the editorial page is

852
00:54:01,480 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 1: just a clown show. It is. It is sophomoric type

853
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:09,680
Speaker 1: of editorials that are written. They're rarely intellectually challenging. I mean,

854
00:54:10,120 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 1: basically the only people that feel like are left worth

855
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:17,560
Speaker 1: reading are Karen Tumblty and George will And it's a

856
00:54:17,600 --> 00:54:21,680
Speaker 1: bummer because there's a lot of I mean, the Post

857
00:54:21,840 --> 00:54:26,640
Speaker 1: editorial page was one that wasn't always so predictable, and

858
00:54:26,800 --> 00:54:30,080
Speaker 1: yet Bezos has gutted it and has gotten some Like

859
00:54:30,160 --> 00:54:36,160
Speaker 1: I said, it feels like a parody at times, some

860
00:54:36,320 --> 00:54:39,040
Speaker 1: of the some of the ways that these editorials are written.

861
00:54:39,760 --> 00:54:45,080
Speaker 1: There's it. It's just I don't know how's to put it.

862
00:54:45,160 --> 00:54:49,800
Speaker 1: It's just it just feels like like a bunch of

863
00:54:50,239 --> 00:54:53,719
Speaker 1: college Republicans getting high in a dorm room writing editorials

864
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:59,080
Speaker 1: rather than, you know, rather than having what the editorial

865
00:54:59,120 --> 00:55:01,640
Speaker 1: board was, which was you know, yes, it may have

866
00:55:01,800 --> 00:55:04,440
Speaker 1: leaned left, but it was a pretty diverse editorial board.

867
00:55:05,040 --> 00:55:08,400
Speaker 1: It certainly didn't lean left or right on national security

868
00:55:08,480 --> 00:55:11,920
Speaker 1: issues or international issues. Domestically, it definitely was politically in

869
00:55:12,000 --> 00:55:15,920
Speaker 1: one place, but not internationally and certainly not on some

870
00:55:16,000 --> 00:55:18,480
Speaker 1: of these other things, and it was it was a shame.

871
00:55:21,560 --> 00:55:23,320
Speaker 1: But to go back to what he's doing to the Post,

872
00:55:23,719 --> 00:55:26,240
Speaker 1: here's a guy that didn't mind losing money for years

873
00:55:26,840 --> 00:55:30,160
Speaker 1: on Amazon, knowing it eventually would be a great business.

874
00:55:31,040 --> 00:55:33,879
Speaker 1: Why he never tackled the information ecosystem the same way

875
00:55:33,880 --> 00:55:36,840
Speaker 1: as beyond Me. I go back to what I said before.

876
00:55:37,480 --> 00:55:40,920
Speaker 1: He bought the Post as a trophy, and then the

877
00:55:41,000 --> 00:55:46,600
Speaker 1: trophy became a problem. So then he decided instead of

878
00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:49,000
Speaker 1: just selling the trophy, he didn't have to own it anymore.

879
00:55:49,400 --> 00:55:51,719
Speaker 1: There were plenty of people who would buy the Washington Post,

880
00:55:54,680 --> 00:56:02,399
Speaker 1: but he didn't. He chose to cut it. I hope

881
00:56:02,440 --> 00:56:07,200
Speaker 1: all of these calls to him are heard and maybe

882
00:56:07,280 --> 00:56:10,440
Speaker 1: he changes. You know, they've relented a little bit. Instead

883
00:56:10,440 --> 00:56:12,400
Speaker 1: of sending nobody to cover the Olympics, they're going to

884
00:56:12,440 --> 00:56:17,880
Speaker 1: send four reporters to cover the Olympics. Maybe he relents,

885
00:56:19,160 --> 00:56:23,759
Speaker 1: and it doesn't look like it because something there's a

886
00:56:23,840 --> 00:56:28,759
Speaker 1: lot of smoke on this one. So it's it's sad.

887
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:32,439
Speaker 1: I don't know any other way to put it. It's

888
00:56:32,719 --> 00:56:37,839
Speaker 1: just sad what's happening. And it's painful, and boy, if

889
00:56:37,840 --> 00:56:41,120
Speaker 1: they got sports and many of you know I'm pretty

890
00:56:41,160 --> 00:56:44,920
Speaker 1: close to Tony Cornizer, I just can't imagine. I just

891
00:56:45,040 --> 00:56:48,840
Speaker 1: can't believe they're going to do this. I hope the

892
00:56:48,920 --> 00:57:01,440
Speaker 1: reporters want. Let me do a few questions, ask Chuck

893
00:57:05,200 --> 00:57:13,320
Speaker 1: now right, I'm gonna do just three today. Part of

894
00:57:13,400 --> 00:57:18,440
Speaker 1: its traveling part of it. I don't want to go

895
00:57:18,640 --> 00:57:23,040
Speaker 1: too long here on this one. So first question comes from, Hey, Chuck,

896
00:57:23,160 --> 00:57:25,760
Speaker 1: my name is Emily and I am from Oakdale, Minnesota,

897
00:57:25,840 --> 00:57:29,440
Speaker 1: suburb of Minneapolising. Think Paul, excuse me, Ice is out

898
00:57:29,480 --> 00:57:31,520
Speaker 1: here too. I have stories that would make your stomach

899
00:57:31,560 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 1: churn and your blood boil. Anyway, I think I have

900
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:35,600
Speaker 1: a question that a lot of us have, how long

901
00:57:35,720 --> 00:57:38,040
Speaker 1: is this going to last? But then it gets me

902
00:57:38,120 --> 00:57:40,280
Speaker 1: thinking how long have we actually been in this already?

903
00:57:40,720 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 1: When you look back at history, you hear about regimes

904
00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:45,440
Speaker 1: that lasted for decades or longer. I'm coming to believe

905
00:57:45,480 --> 00:57:48,200
Speaker 1: this is a great escalation of our freedom slipping away

906
00:57:48,240 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 1: for some time, with the majority of the public myself

907
00:57:50,720 --> 00:57:53,600
Speaker 1: included at times being the crabs and the crab pot

908
00:57:55,000 --> 00:57:57,880
Speaker 1: Is this the beginning or the beginning of the end,

909
00:57:59,280 --> 00:58:03,640
Speaker 1: well more optimistic. You're in a you're in a dark place,

910
00:58:03,720 --> 00:58:06,680
Speaker 1: and I get it. I think if I were witnessing

911
00:58:06,720 --> 00:58:10,640
Speaker 1: what you're witnessing, I might be there. I will just say,

912
00:58:11,160 --> 00:58:19,920
Speaker 1: in our history, American history, no, no political movement lasts

913
00:58:19,960 --> 00:58:22,680
Speaker 1: more than about a decade, you know, before it starts

914
00:58:22,720 --> 00:58:26,720
Speaker 1: to wear thin, voters get exhausted from it, you know whatever.

915
00:58:26,960 --> 00:58:29,000
Speaker 1: Everyone you know, there's this saying you know, you know,

916
00:58:29,960 --> 00:58:32,920
Speaker 1: you know, and part of it, you know, the longer

917
00:58:34,240 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 1: a political movement stays in power, the more corrupt guts right,

918
00:58:38,440 --> 00:58:43,400
Speaker 1: because suddenly people get comfortable. Then they you know, start grifting.

919
00:58:43,440 --> 00:58:47,240
Speaker 1: And this has of course been a next level clectocracy stuff.

920
00:58:49,200 --> 00:58:53,600
Speaker 1: I mean, it's just blatantly pay to play, right. But

921
00:58:54,040 --> 00:58:57,720
Speaker 1: I I think we're I think the worm's turning, and

922
00:58:57,880 --> 00:59:00,400
Speaker 1: I know it's it's sometimes hard to see the closer

923
00:59:00,440 --> 00:59:03,960
Speaker 1: you are to some of this stuff. But you look,

924
00:59:04,040 --> 00:59:07,360
Speaker 1: he's got the lowest numbers he's ever had as sitting president.

925
00:59:07,960 --> 00:59:10,600
Speaker 1: The economy is not in good shape, and people don't

926
00:59:10,640 --> 00:59:14,120
Speaker 1: feel like it's going to get better. At best. Maybe

927
00:59:14,200 --> 00:59:16,560
Speaker 1: we sort of stumble into status quo, but that doesn't

928
00:59:16,560 --> 00:59:19,400
Speaker 1: make anybody feel better. You heard me talk about this

929
00:59:19,480 --> 00:59:22,520
Speaker 1: at the beginning of this podcast. But the confidence people

930
00:59:22,600 --> 00:59:29,439
Speaker 1: have about jobs being plentiful is cratering. Everything still feels

931
00:59:29,480 --> 00:59:33,440
Speaker 1: like it's going to cost more. The tariffs create more instability,

932
00:59:33,880 --> 00:59:37,880
Speaker 1: more instability. So I think this is a krabby electorate

933
00:59:38,000 --> 00:59:40,400
Speaker 1: to borrow your you know, I think I think you

934
00:59:40,520 --> 00:59:43,600
Speaker 1: were going for the boiled frog metaphor, but I'm gonna

935
00:59:44,040 --> 00:59:48,840
Speaker 1: I'm gonna borrow the crab there that you cited. I

936
00:59:48,880 --> 00:59:52,920
Speaker 1: think the electorate's pretty crabby. And you know, you have

937
00:59:53,160 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 1: a lot of infighting in the president's base. You have

938
00:59:56,960 --> 01:00:03,160
Speaker 1: a party that's starting to uh, that's starting to question

939
01:00:03,320 --> 01:00:08,600
Speaker 1: its leader. Right we're seeing more of that. My confidence

940
01:00:08,640 --> 01:00:11,280
Speaker 1: in the Democrats as a governing entity is not great,

941
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 1: but they're not having to run to govern right now.

942
01:00:15,360 --> 01:00:17,360
Speaker 1: They have the easiest message in the world to run on.

943
01:00:17,800 --> 01:00:23,520
Speaker 1: Provide a check on Donald Trump. It's a simple message.

944
01:00:24,840 --> 01:00:28,000
Speaker 1: And any time, especially there's a whole There have been

945
01:00:28,120 --> 01:00:30,280
Speaker 1: books written about the so called six year itch, and

946
01:00:30,360 --> 01:00:33,400
Speaker 1: this is essentially our We're in our six year of

947
01:00:33,480 --> 01:00:36,200
Speaker 1: Trump in charge, and if you want to you know,

948
01:00:36,520 --> 01:00:38,840
Speaker 1: and and he's certainly the four years that Biden was there.

949
01:00:38,920 --> 01:00:43,360
Speaker 1: Trump was was sort of hovering over the entire right,

950
01:00:44,240 --> 01:00:47,600
Speaker 1: entire president and the entire four years of that presidency.

951
01:00:50,560 --> 01:00:53,960
Speaker 1: But I think this is an electorate that's I'm somebody

952
01:00:54,000 --> 01:00:57,520
Speaker 1: who thinks this wave is building and that every month

953
01:00:57,960 --> 01:01:02,120
Speaker 1: it's going to look more obvious that a lot of

954
01:01:02,160 --> 01:01:04,320
Speaker 1: Republicans are going to get fired this year. And that's

955
01:01:04,320 --> 01:01:06,040
Speaker 1: the way I'd still put it. I mean, we are

956
01:01:06,200 --> 01:01:08,440
Speaker 1: we are still in this era of we know what

957
01:01:08,560 --> 01:01:11,960
Speaker 1: we don't want, so we're going to keep firing, right.

958
01:01:12,040 --> 01:01:16,520
Speaker 1: We have yet to find what we like. But but

959
01:01:16,680 --> 01:01:20,200
Speaker 1: I think that this is this is how midterm elections

960
01:01:20,280 --> 01:01:24,720
Speaker 1: can usually are about that, and this one feels like

961
01:01:24,800 --> 01:01:27,400
Speaker 1: it's growing into a big time referendum on Trump and

962
01:01:27,520 --> 01:01:30,400
Speaker 1: that is not going to go very well. The only

963
01:01:30,560 --> 01:01:34,520
Speaker 1: thing is that that that gives them a boxer's chance.

964
01:01:35,640 --> 01:01:38,160
Speaker 1: It's two things. Got that the repub that Trump has

965
01:01:38,240 --> 01:01:42,760
Speaker 1: going for him the way these districts are drawn, and

966
01:01:42,880 --> 01:01:45,160
Speaker 1: Republican's got a small victory in Virginia today. We'll see

967
01:01:45,160 --> 01:01:49,000
Speaker 1: if that sets back the Virginia attempt to remap. And

968
01:01:49,240 --> 01:01:51,560
Speaker 1: just this cycle of Senate seats that are up, it's

969
01:01:51,600 --> 01:01:55,360
Speaker 1: not the easiest map for Democrats to pick up seats

970
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:57,760
Speaker 1: and it's not impossible, but it's not it's not a

971
01:01:57,880 --> 01:02:02,240
Speaker 1: very easy map that that's it. Because the political environment,

972
01:02:04,160 --> 01:02:07,880
Speaker 1: this is one of those things. It's getting more ominous

973
01:02:08,520 --> 01:02:11,880
Speaker 1: by the day for Republicans. We'll see what happens with

974
01:02:12,000 --> 01:02:15,520
Speaker 1: tax season. A lot of Republicans are betting that tax

975
01:02:15,680 --> 01:02:20,040
Speaker 1: refund season is going to change enough perceptions about the

976
01:02:20,080 --> 01:02:23,600
Speaker 1: economy that it's going to give Republicans a fighting chance

977
01:02:23,880 --> 01:02:27,520
Speaker 1: at getting re elected to their majorities. I'm a bit

978
01:02:27,600 --> 01:02:29,560
Speaker 1: more skeptical that tax refunds are going to have that

979
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:32,760
Speaker 1: kind of impact because they're immediately going to go to

980
01:02:32,920 --> 01:02:37,080
Speaker 1: rising electricity costs, rising health care costs, and rising food costs.

981
01:02:37,800 --> 01:02:41,600
Speaker 1: So whatever new money people, it's going to go. In

982
01:02:41,800 --> 01:02:47,200
Speaker 1: some ways, it could end up bringing more attention to

983
01:02:47,440 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 1: inflation and the rising cost of living because they'll think, oh,

984
01:02:52,400 --> 01:02:55,720
Speaker 1: I've got this extra money. Wait, it's already gone. Where

985
01:02:55,760 --> 01:03:00,720
Speaker 1: did it go? Rising electric bills, rising food costs, rising

986
01:03:00,760 --> 01:03:07,080
Speaker 1: healthcare costs. So there you go. That's so I think

987
01:03:07,160 --> 01:03:09,760
Speaker 1: we're I don't know if we're at the end of

988
01:03:09,760 --> 01:03:14,960
Speaker 1: the Trump movement, but I definitely think we're at the end.

989
01:03:15,720 --> 01:03:20,600
Speaker 1: We're at the end of we're coming, we're winding down

990
01:03:20,760 --> 01:03:24,120
Speaker 1: the Trump era. That doesn't mean there might not be

991
01:03:24,200 --> 01:03:27,520
Speaker 1: a dead cat bounce in twenty eight maybe Democrats inviting,

992
01:03:28,080 --> 01:03:31,160
Speaker 1: you know, hands the presidency to them. But I think

993
01:03:31,240 --> 01:03:35,680
Speaker 1: we're starting to see a slow rejection of Trump is.

994
01:03:37,440 --> 01:03:40,280
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Patrick from Waterford, Michigan, and he writes,

995
01:03:40,560 --> 01:03:43,200
Speaker 1: at what point does a blatant, provable lie from a

996
01:03:43,280 --> 01:03:47,520
Speaker 1: politician amount to criminal fraud? That's interesting. I know that

997
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:49,400
Speaker 1: Congress and the President are immune due to the Speech

998
01:03:49,440 --> 01:03:53,040
Speaker 1: and Debate Clause and the Presidential Immunity ruling, respectively. However,

999
01:03:53,120 --> 01:03:55,520
Speaker 1: this does not cover the vice president, cabinet, governors and others.

1000
01:03:55,600 --> 01:03:58,440
Speaker 1: Does the First Amendment protect them regardless of the shamelessness

1001
01:03:58,480 --> 01:04:01,720
Speaker 1: of their lives? Best regards? Well, it really does. I mean,

1002
01:04:01,840 --> 01:04:08,520
Speaker 1: you know it in order to make now, I mean,

1003
01:04:08,560 --> 01:04:10,600
Speaker 1: you could file some lawsuits if you want to try,

1004
01:04:10,680 --> 01:04:15,200
Speaker 1: and they can become nuisance lawsuits. But this is where

1005
01:04:18,240 --> 01:04:20,480
Speaker 1: you know, if you're a political if you're running against

1006
01:04:20,560 --> 01:04:23,240
Speaker 1: these folks, you need to you need to let litigate

1007
01:04:23,360 --> 01:04:27,520
Speaker 1: your case, and you need to say they told you this,

1008
01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:34,680
Speaker 1: they lied to you. And I think that ultimately that's

1009
01:04:36,240 --> 01:04:39,880
Speaker 1: it goes back to something the you've got to go

1010
01:04:39,920 --> 01:04:42,880
Speaker 1: win elections, and the voters have to do this. The

1011
01:04:43,080 --> 01:04:46,320
Speaker 1: voters have to reject if you try to do this

1012
01:04:46,440 --> 01:04:47,919
Speaker 1: in any other way, if you look for a short

1013
01:04:47,960 --> 01:04:52,400
Speaker 1: cut they of the courts, via impeachment, via any other way.

1014
01:04:53,680 --> 01:04:56,400
Speaker 1: It isn't going to solve the larger problem. The voters

1015
01:04:56,520 --> 01:04:58,720
Speaker 1: are the only ones that can solve this larger problem.

1016
01:05:00,080 --> 01:05:05,160
Speaker 1: So make your case to the voters that JD. Vance's lying,

1017
01:05:05,360 --> 01:05:11,160
Speaker 1: or that CHRISTI Noman is lying. You know, make your

1018
01:05:11,240 --> 01:05:13,640
Speaker 1: case to the members of Congress. If they lie, it's

1019
01:05:13,760 --> 01:05:17,160
Speaker 1: up to Congress to hold them accountable. And this Congress

1020
01:05:17,200 --> 01:05:20,120
Speaker 1: has chosen not to do that. And this is where

1021
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:23,160
Speaker 1: I think this is going to be an easy you know,

1022
01:05:23,960 --> 01:05:26,760
Speaker 1: A way to talk to voters of all parties is

1023
01:05:26,840 --> 01:05:34,919
Speaker 1: simply say, don't you want to see Congress hold any

1024
01:05:34,960 --> 01:05:40,360
Speaker 1: president accountable if they are violating the constitution, any cabinet

1025
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:44,840
Speaker 1: secretary if they're violating the constitution. So I just think

1026
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:50,880
Speaker 1: that I hear what you're saying. But ultimately, there's one

1027
01:05:51,040 --> 01:05:55,120
Speaker 1: jury that matters more than any other, and it's the

1028
01:05:56,560 --> 01:06:00,800
Speaker 1: it's the jury of registered voters. So make your case

1029
01:06:00,840 --> 01:06:05,960
Speaker 1: to them. That last question for the evening is gonna

1030
01:06:06,200 --> 01:06:08,880
Speaker 1: for now, It's going to come from Harvey R. He said,

1031
01:06:08,920 --> 01:06:10,560
Speaker 1: you said in your last podcast that the Georgia Center

1032
01:06:10,640 --> 01:06:12,960
Speaker 1: race is not really a race. I didn't say it

1033
01:06:13,040 --> 01:06:15,920
Speaker 1: that way. I said, I have downgraded it as a

1034
01:06:16,040 --> 01:06:18,800
Speaker 1: top tier race. What's the chance that asas big win

1035
01:06:18,920 --> 01:06:21,680
Speaker 1: catapults him to the nomination. I think you mean twenty

1036
01:06:21,720 --> 01:06:26,959
Speaker 1: twenty eight. I just think that that it's pretty clear

1037
01:06:27,080 --> 01:06:33,120
Speaker 1: this is a he's drawn a weaker field. And you know,

1038
01:06:33,560 --> 01:06:38,000
Speaker 1: Brian Kemp was probably the only Republican and maybe even

1039
01:06:38,040 --> 01:06:41,000
Speaker 1: Brad Raefensberger were probably one of the only two Republicans

1040
01:06:41,040 --> 01:06:43,320
Speaker 1: that I think could have been ass up in this

1041
01:06:43,480 --> 01:06:45,560
Speaker 1: political environment. And that's what you have to remember. This

1042
01:06:45,720 --> 01:06:48,920
Speaker 1: is going to be a pretty good political environment for

1043
01:06:49,000 --> 01:06:55,240
Speaker 1: Democrats in this midterm year. So I think, and you

1044
01:06:55,320 --> 01:06:57,480
Speaker 1: know this, none of these candidates stood out. I think

1045
01:06:57,520 --> 01:06:59,920
Speaker 1: I've I said an earlier podcast, I thought, Derek Dooley,

1046
01:07:00,600 --> 01:07:04,920
Speaker 1: if I words, if I think they are, he's a

1047
01:07:05,120 --> 01:07:08,480
Speaker 1: potential tougher foe for ASoft than either of the two

1048
01:07:08,520 --> 01:07:12,040
Speaker 1: members of Congress because their first name is Congress. Right.

1049
01:07:12,080 --> 01:07:14,080
Speaker 1: I don't think you want to be an outsider, being

1050
01:07:14,080 --> 01:07:16,080
Speaker 1: a former football coach might be better than being an

1051
01:07:16,160 --> 01:07:20,720
Speaker 1: incumbent member in Washington. But I think when you start

1052
01:07:20,760 --> 01:07:23,640
Speaker 1: to look at the amount of money Osof has, how

1053
01:07:24,800 --> 01:07:31,360
Speaker 1: how this primary is not producing a a a great candidate.

1054
01:07:31,480 --> 01:07:33,800
Speaker 1: Yet it still could and there's still plenty of time

1055
01:07:33,840 --> 01:07:38,800
Speaker 1: for that to happen. But I do think both Osoff

1056
01:07:38,840 --> 01:07:40,960
Speaker 1: and Warnock are you know, well, I don't know if

1057
01:07:41,000 --> 01:07:44,400
Speaker 1: Asoff runs for president and I don't know if Warnock runs,

1058
01:07:45,080 --> 01:07:48,680
Speaker 1: but you know, by the way our presidential candidate field

1059
01:07:48,720 --> 01:07:51,000
Speaker 1: keeps getting bigger on the Democratic side, So Mark, I

1060
01:07:51,080 --> 01:07:53,720
Speaker 1: think Mark Kelly's definitely more likely to run than not run.

1061
01:07:53,800 --> 01:07:57,480
Speaker 1: Now from Arizona, Rubin Gego wants to run so already.

1062
01:07:57,720 --> 01:08:02,040
Speaker 1: I mean, both of Arizona senators flirting with presidential campaigns.

1063
01:08:02,120 --> 01:08:07,160
Speaker 1: Are both Georgia senators going to do this? But I

1064
01:08:07,280 --> 01:08:10,200
Speaker 1: will say this, I think both Warnock and Asof are

1065
01:08:10,240 --> 01:08:13,040
Speaker 1: on the short list for any for any running mate.

1066
01:08:13,120 --> 01:08:14,960
Speaker 1: I mean, at this point, I think you're going to see,

1067
01:08:16,439 --> 01:08:20,960
Speaker 1: you know, a very simple running mate selection this time

1068
01:08:21,720 --> 01:08:26,240
Speaker 1: in that just pick a state, look at your map.

1069
01:08:26,520 --> 01:08:30,000
Speaker 1: What do you need double down on one of those states? Right?

1070
01:08:30,920 --> 01:08:33,000
Speaker 1: Is that Arizona's I mean one of the two. I mean,

1071
01:08:33,120 --> 01:08:36,000
Speaker 1: I think that could be Arizona, that could be Georgia,

1072
01:08:36,360 --> 01:08:39,400
Speaker 1: that could be North Carolina. But I think that's what

1073
01:08:39,560 --> 01:08:44,560
Speaker 1: you're gonna say is a little more simplified. Just do

1074
01:08:44,640 --> 01:08:47,800
Speaker 1: it the old fashioned way. Just go pick somebody from

1075
01:08:47,840 --> 01:08:50,840
Speaker 1: a state you need to carry, and in that sense,

1076
01:08:51,280 --> 01:08:54,760
Speaker 1: that could definitely put us off and Warnock in the

1077
01:08:54,880 --> 01:08:59,280
Speaker 1: top tier of that. All Right, I'm going to put

1078
01:08:59,320 --> 01:09:01,840
Speaker 1: a pin in this up episode since we're gonna I'm

1079
01:09:01,880 --> 01:09:07,080
Speaker 1: gonna see you in another twenty four hours, but it's

1080
01:09:07,160 --> 01:09:10,880
Speaker 1: a I will I will admit being a little weary

1081
01:09:11,000 --> 01:09:14,120
Speaker 1: from my own travels and shoveling of snow, So I'm

1082
01:09:14,200 --> 01:09:16,559
Speaker 1: going to go make sure I get a really good

1083
01:09:17,560 --> 01:09:20,320
Speaker 1: night's rest, and I will see you on this feed

1084
01:09:20,520 --> 01:09:25,000
Speaker 1: in twenty four hours. M h.