1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,440 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Applecarcklay and Android Auto 4 00:00:17,520 --> 00:00:20,680 Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you 5 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,120 Speaker 1: get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,440 Speaker 2: All of this against the backdrop of a debate surrounding 7 00:00:28,480 --> 00:00:31,920 Speaker 2: affordability here in Washington, d C. And drew the President 8 00:00:31,960 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 2: out of the bubble yesterday as he spent some time 9 00:00:34,720 --> 00:00:37,360 Speaker 2: on the road in Iowa, specifically a speech in Des 10 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,320 Speaker 2: Moines as part of his affordability tour, and this morning 11 00:00:41,360 --> 00:00:44,239 Speaker 2: spending time celebrating what they call the Trump accounts. This is, 12 00:00:44,520 --> 00:00:48,880 Speaker 2: of course, the investment accounts for newborns drawing financial contributions 13 00:00:48,960 --> 00:00:50,800 Speaker 2: from around the corporate sphere. 14 00:00:51,440 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 3: We saw the likes of JP. 15 00:00:52,760 --> 00:00:55,920 Speaker 2: Morgan and others here in town today to be part 16 00:00:56,000 --> 00:00:59,800 Speaker 2: of that celebration. But of course we've also got an 17 00:00:59,800 --> 00:01:04,320 Speaker 2: eye right now with regard to affordability and the fallout 18 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:07,640 Speaker 2: from Minnesota, a very large lack of trust on Capitol 19 00:01:07,680 --> 00:01:09,160 Speaker 2: Hill and one that could in fact lead to a 20 00:01:09,200 --> 00:01:11,200 Speaker 2: government shutdown in just a couple of days. We are 21 00:01:11,240 --> 00:01:14,000 Speaker 2: ever closer to the Friday night deadline, and Toddler Kendall 22 00:01:14,040 --> 00:01:16,600 Speaker 2: has been calling the hallways of the capital talking with 23 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:18,839 Speaker 2: lawmakers today to get a sense of whether there could 24 00:01:18,840 --> 00:01:21,600 Speaker 2: be any deal when it comes to DHS funding. That's 25 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:24,399 Speaker 2: the matter that has held this up following the second 26 00:01:24,440 --> 00:01:27,960 Speaker 2: fatal ice shooting in Minneapolis last weekend. Todter, what are 27 00:01:27,959 --> 00:01:30,760 Speaker 2: you hearing and are we expecting a partial shutdown no 28 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:32,319 Speaker 2: matter what at this point? 29 00:01:32,560 --> 00:01:35,400 Speaker 4: Well, Joe, I can say that there is this sense 30 00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:38,399 Speaker 4: that at least the sides are talking together and they 31 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 4: are having negotiations, which feels in stark contrast to what 32 00:01:42,160 --> 00:01:44,880 Speaker 4: happened during the last government shutdown, where I felt like 33 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,960 Speaker 4: the sides weren't even going to engage. The only thing 34 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 4: is we are not it appears any closer to a 35 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 4: deal as we kareen towards Friday's deadline. The thing is 36 00:01:54,160 --> 00:01:56,160 Speaker 4: is that we heard from the Senate Majority Leader John 37 00:01:56,200 --> 00:01:59,280 Speaker 4: Thune earlier today speaking to reporters in the hallway, and 38 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:01,720 Speaker 4: he said that Decrats really have to be engaging with 39 00:02:01,840 --> 00:02:04,680 Speaker 4: the White House. It appears Republicans are really putting on 40 00:02:04,720 --> 00:02:08,600 Speaker 4: the table here that there can be some non legislative solutions, 41 00:02:08,720 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 4: perhaps something done through executive action that could put some 42 00:02:11,919 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 4: curbs on ICE, Except for that Democrats don't really. 43 00:02:14,639 --> 00:02:15,320 Speaker 5: Want to see that. 44 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:17,760 Speaker 4: They have repeatedly said that there needs to be something 45 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:20,760 Speaker 4: tangible tacked on to a bill that would include some 46 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:24,000 Speaker 4: of the things that they are asking for, including mandatory 47 00:02:24,080 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 4: a body camera mandate or warrant requirement, something a little 48 00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:32,760 Speaker 4: bit more firm that could impact ICE's operations on the ground. 49 00:02:32,840 --> 00:02:35,000 Speaker 4: The issue with that, though, is that if there's going 50 00:02:35,040 --> 00:02:37,760 Speaker 4: to be a legislative solution, it's going to take a 51 00:02:37,800 --> 00:02:40,119 Speaker 4: little bit of work, and it's going to get complicated. 52 00:02:40,200 --> 00:02:43,240 Speaker 4: Even if we see them strip out DHS funding, decide 53 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:46,600 Speaker 4: to push forward and approve the five other bills that 54 00:02:46,639 --> 00:02:48,919 Speaker 4: are in this package, you're going to have to bring 55 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,960 Speaker 4: the House back into town. That is one logistically difficult 56 00:02:51,960 --> 00:02:54,960 Speaker 4: at the moment because they're out of Washington until February third, 57 00:02:55,040 --> 00:02:57,680 Speaker 4: but it is also going to be difficult politically since 58 00:02:57,720 --> 00:02:59,440 Speaker 4: we know that it's going to be hard to get 59 00:02:59,680 --> 00:03:03,960 Speaker 4: any such changes, particularly related to immigration enforcement, through the 60 00:03:04,080 --> 00:03:06,760 Speaker 4: lower chamber. Joe, the last option here is maybe we'll 61 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 4: see some sort of standalone legislation emerge, but at this 62 00:03:10,480 --> 00:03:13,960 Speaker 4: point there haven't really been concrete discussions around if that 63 00:03:14,080 --> 00:03:15,799 Speaker 4: is going to be a viable option, but we are 64 00:03:15,840 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 4: definitely up against the clock, so at this point we'll 65 00:03:18,120 --> 00:03:19,240 Speaker 4: see if something comes from it. 66 00:03:20,240 --> 00:03:23,560 Speaker 2: Well, the discord around the Department of Homeland Security is 67 00:03:23,639 --> 00:03:26,600 Speaker 2: palpable here, even on the Republican side, Tyler, when you 68 00:03:26,600 --> 00:03:31,680 Speaker 2: see the likes of Tom Tillis Lisa Murkowski calling for Christinome, 69 00:03:31,720 --> 00:03:35,520 Speaker 2: the secretary to step down over what happened in Minneapolis, 70 00:03:35,760 --> 00:03:39,320 Speaker 2: and the reaction the language that we heard from the 71 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:40,560 Speaker 2: likes of Nome. 72 00:03:40,560 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 3: And Gregory Bovino. 73 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 2: We've got articles of impeachment on the House side, but 74 00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:49,040 Speaker 2: also these Republican senators who are standing up to oppose 75 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:52,119 Speaker 2: the administration on this front. Is all of this slowing 76 00:03:52,160 --> 00:03:56,400 Speaker 2: down the opportunity to find a deal on funding, Well, it. 77 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 4: Definitely could, because we have to remember that is really 78 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:01,280 Speaker 4: what is at the heart of this point at this 79 00:04:01,320 --> 00:04:04,440 Speaker 4: point policy debate. In fact, President Trump had weighed in 80 00:04:04,480 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 4: within the last hour in an interview with ABC News 81 00:04:07,680 --> 00:04:12,200 Speaker 4: criticizing Tom Tillis and Senator Lisa Murkowski over their opposition. 82 00:04:12,240 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 4: And we actually just heard from Tom Tillis speaking to 83 00:04:14,560 --> 00:04:19,839 Speaker 4: reporters here basically pushing back against the President's criticism, saying 84 00:04:19,880 --> 00:04:22,000 Speaker 4: that he's not going to be deterred in his opposition, 85 00:04:22,080 --> 00:04:26,080 Speaker 4: that he wants to see Christine Noam removed from her post. Now, 86 00:04:26,120 --> 00:04:28,680 Speaker 4: you mentioned there is some movement around an impeachment resolution 87 00:04:28,760 --> 00:04:30,320 Speaker 4: in the House. By last count, I believe it has 88 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 4: about one hundred and sixty Democratic signatures on it. We 89 00:04:33,400 --> 00:04:36,599 Speaker 4: have to keep in mind a simple majority is needed 90 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 4: for impeachment, So if we do the math, I would 91 00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:41,880 Speaker 4: mean at least three House Republicans would have to get 92 00:04:41,920 --> 00:04:45,280 Speaker 4: on board in order to approve any articles of impeachment, 93 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:47,040 Speaker 4: and right now it's hard to see where they would 94 00:04:47,080 --> 00:04:50,279 Speaker 4: actually find those numbers in the House. So instead, Joey, 95 00:04:50,279 --> 00:04:53,320 Speaker 4: you're going to hear a lot about this focus on investigations. 96 00:04:53,360 --> 00:04:56,719 Speaker 4: We've heard a lot more senators, Republican senators more comfortable 97 00:04:56,920 --> 00:04:59,880 Speaker 4: with that idea that they are going to hold full investigations. 98 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:01,920 Speaker 4: As of now, the next date that we are expecting 99 00:05:01,960 --> 00:05:04,159 Speaker 4: the Data Secretary to be up here on Capitol Hill 100 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 4: is March third. That was for a previously scheduled oversight 101 00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:10,200 Speaker 4: hearing in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee. 102 00:05:10,240 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 3: But no doubt this is going to. 103 00:05:11,800 --> 00:05:12,440 Speaker 4: Be the focus. 104 00:05:13,480 --> 00:05:16,560 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's for sure, Dick Durbin, even suggesting she may 105 00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:18,880 Speaker 2: or may not have the job by March third. Tyler, 106 00:05:18,920 --> 00:05:21,400 Speaker 2: thank you with us live from Capitol Hill. And what's 107 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:23,040 Speaker 2: going to be another busy one here is they try 108 00:05:23,080 --> 00:05:27,719 Speaker 2: to find a solution. Bloomberg's Washington correspondent. We're just hearing 109 00:05:27,720 --> 00:05:30,000 Speaker 2: from some of our reporters down the corridor from where 110 00:05:30,560 --> 00:05:34,120 Speaker 2: Tyler is standing in the rotunda speaking with Jeene Shaheen. 111 00:05:34,240 --> 00:05:37,160 Speaker 2: Of course, the Democratic senator from New Hampshire has been 112 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:40,960 Speaker 2: key as a negotiator in bridging the gap across the 113 00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,120 Speaker 2: aisle on any number of issues. She was just asked 114 00:05:44,160 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 2: if she would vote to open up the government this time, 115 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:50,200 Speaker 2: she said, what we need our reforms for ice. She 116 00:05:50,320 --> 00:05:52,919 Speaker 2: went on to say, we have not yet also seen 117 00:05:52,960 --> 00:05:56,760 Speaker 2: a formal proposal on Obamacare tax credits. 118 00:05:57,839 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 3: It's not getting any easier. 119 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:02,520 Speaker 2: As we assemble our political panel, Bloomberg Politics contributors Rick 120 00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 2: Davis and Genie Shanzano are with us. Rick is our 121 00:06:05,440 --> 00:06:08,640 Speaker 2: Republican strategist, of course, partner at Stone Court Capital, joining 122 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:10,880 Speaker 2: us if you're with us on Bloomberg TV. From a 123 00:06:10,920 --> 00:06:13,960 Speaker 2: warm and sunny Phoenix, Arizona, Genie with the rest of 124 00:06:14,040 --> 00:06:17,280 Speaker 2: us on the East Coast are democratic analyst and democracy 125 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:21,360 Speaker 2: visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy School's Ash Center. Rick, what 126 00:06:21,400 --> 00:06:24,200 Speaker 2: do you make of this rhetoric from the likes of 127 00:06:24,320 --> 00:06:27,839 Speaker 2: Jean Shaheen. If she's not convinced, I'm guessing most of 128 00:06:27,880 --> 00:06:29,240 Speaker 2: the rank and file are not either. 129 00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:32,000 Speaker 3: On the Democratic side, that's right. 130 00:06:32,120 --> 00:06:35,640 Speaker 6: I don't think they want to take any promises to 131 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,000 Speaker 6: from the administration to do better. 132 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:40,400 Speaker 7: They've been down that road before. 133 00:06:41,480 --> 00:06:45,400 Speaker 6: I go back to the recisions battle in the first budget. 134 00:06:46,520 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 7: It really set the wrong tone, right. 135 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,479 Speaker 6: I mean, when the administration says, no matter what you 136 00:06:50,520 --> 00:06:54,159 Speaker 6: give us, we're going to rescind it. That then parkins 137 00:06:54,160 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 6: in their minds today that says we could kind of 138 00:06:56,400 --> 00:06:59,560 Speaker 6: deal with these guys tomorrow, and they just decide to 139 00:06:59,600 --> 00:07:03,000 Speaker 6: go back on it a week from now. So there's 140 00:07:03,440 --> 00:07:06,360 Speaker 6: lack of trust and without the lack without the trust, 141 00:07:06,760 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 6: those kinds of promises are going to not be taken. 142 00:07:09,600 --> 00:07:14,840 Speaker 6: So they're looking for statutory changes statutory meaning in law. 143 00:07:15,520 --> 00:07:19,440 Speaker 6: The agencies in this case DHS has to do the 144 00:07:19,440 --> 00:07:23,640 Speaker 6: things that they direct them to do, and it's hard 145 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 6: to blame them. They've not been in on any of 146 00:07:26,280 --> 00:07:29,040 Speaker 6: the decision making when it came to the big beautiful 147 00:07:29,040 --> 00:07:32,280 Speaker 6: bill that added huge amounts of funding to DHS. So 148 00:07:32,320 --> 00:07:35,720 Speaker 6: they're skeptical, and I think that reflects where we are 149 00:07:35,760 --> 00:07:40,720 Speaker 6: today with these negotiations. Certainly Gene Shaheen indicates that in 150 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:43,800 Speaker 6: her comments today, and so look, I mean what that 151 00:07:43,880 --> 00:07:46,320 Speaker 6: probably means is we're headed toward a shutdown at least 152 00:07:46,320 --> 00:07:49,120 Speaker 6: for a little while, until the House can approve whatever 153 00:07:49,200 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 6: deal the Senate strikes. 154 00:07:51,440 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 2: Twelve one am on Saturday, Genie, we heard from Gene 155 00:07:55,640 --> 00:08:00,520 Speaker 2: Shaheen as noted AD Senator Chris Murphy, the Democrat from Annecticutt, 156 00:08:00,520 --> 00:08:02,960 Speaker 2: who rarely holds back. He says, the things we care 157 00:08:03,000 --> 00:08:06,840 Speaker 2: most about are getting an independent investigation, that's one, and 158 00:08:06,960 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 2: ending these roving patrols terrorizing Minneapolis, he says, solving these 159 00:08:11,160 --> 00:08:16,360 Speaker 2: problems with secret police, and getting some identification of body cams. 160 00:08:16,760 --> 00:08:19,920 Speaker 2: If all of these items were in a separate, standalone 161 00:08:19,960 --> 00:08:23,560 Speaker 2: piece of legislation, would Democrats go along vote for the 162 00:08:23,600 --> 00:08:26,600 Speaker 2: funding bill and then vote on this separately. 163 00:08:28,600 --> 00:08:29,720 Speaker 5: I think they might. 164 00:08:29,840 --> 00:08:33,160 Speaker 8: They certainly would seriously consider it, But I think from 165 00:08:33,160 --> 00:08:37,400 Speaker 8: the democratics perspective, Democrats rather perspective, and from the perspective 166 00:08:37,440 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 8: of so many Americans. 167 00:08:38,760 --> 00:08:40,000 Speaker 5: The problem here. 168 00:08:40,400 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 8: Is that what we've seen with the President Donald Trump 169 00:08:44,360 --> 00:08:47,920 Speaker 8: is a change in rhetoric, but not changes in policy 170 00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 8: on the ground. Yet obviously that may be coming, and 171 00:08:51,920 --> 00:08:54,880 Speaker 8: you know, the shifting of Tom Holman in there may help. 172 00:08:54,720 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 5: Bring that about. 173 00:08:56,000 --> 00:09:00,520 Speaker 8: But until people see those kinds of operational change, those 174 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:04,960 Speaker 8: kinds of policy changes, they are going to remain very 175 00:09:05,080 --> 00:09:09,520 Speaker 8: concerned and unwilling to support the budget it that was 176 00:09:09,640 --> 00:09:12,600 Speaker 8: previously put into place, given the fact that we've seen 177 00:09:12,640 --> 00:09:16,280 Speaker 8: two Americans shot dead on the streets of Minneapolis, and 178 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:19,320 Speaker 8: it doesn't help, by the way, that the President just 179 00:09:19,679 --> 00:09:22,680 Speaker 8: about an hour ago, and I think Tyler was referencing this, 180 00:09:23,280 --> 00:09:28,360 Speaker 8: called Tom tillis a loser because he is questioning what 181 00:09:28,679 --> 00:09:32,600 Speaker 8: the administration is doing with ice. And of course, last night, 182 00:09:32,679 --> 00:09:35,559 Speaker 8: in a speech that's supposed to be about affordability, went 183 00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:39,520 Speaker 8: on the attack once again against Ilhan Omar, who just 184 00:09:39,760 --> 00:09:43,480 Speaker 8: minutes later was attacked as she was holding a town 185 00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:44,960 Speaker 8: hall with constituents. 186 00:09:45,160 --> 00:09:47,439 Speaker 5: So, you know, the President trying. 187 00:09:47,200 --> 00:09:50,720 Speaker 8: To soften the rhetoric potentially a little bit on what 188 00:09:50,800 --> 00:09:54,800 Speaker 8: happened out in Minneapolis, doesn't assuage people at all, given 189 00:09:54,840 --> 00:09:57,559 Speaker 8: the lack of a change in policy and the lack 190 00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:00,800 Speaker 8: of a change in rhetoric in so many other ways. 191 00:10:01,000 --> 00:10:03,640 Speaker 8: And so I think for anyone in Congress on the 192 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:07,320 Speaker 8: Republican side to suggest that the Democrats should be negotiating 193 00:10:07,320 --> 00:10:10,880 Speaker 8: with the White House, where are the Republicans? And I 194 00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:14,280 Speaker 8: give Tillis and Murkowski an other's credit standing up and 195 00:10:14,360 --> 00:10:17,680 Speaker 8: saying enough is enough. We don't shoot people dead on 196 00:10:17,760 --> 00:10:19,120 Speaker 8: the streets of our cities. 197 00:10:19,480 --> 00:10:23,600 Speaker 2: American citizens, Well, they've got numbers on their sides. Rick, 198 00:10:23,679 --> 00:10:27,599 Speaker 2: you probably saw this new pull from the Searchlight Institute, 199 00:10:27,800 --> 00:10:32,240 Speaker 2: fifteen hundred people. It was conducted after the shooting of 200 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:37,160 Speaker 2: Renee Gooden, before the shooting of Alex Pretty in the 201 00:10:37,200 --> 00:10:45,040 Speaker 2: immediate aftermath. Fifty eight percent strong public support for raining 202 00:10:45,080 --> 00:10:48,360 Speaker 2: Ice in the memo states bipartisan majorities of voters oppose 203 00:10:48,480 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 2: ICE's lawless tactics, including detaining US citizens seventy three percent, 204 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:57,480 Speaker 2: entering people's homes without warrants seventy nine percent, failing to 205 00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:02,080 Speaker 2: wear clearly identifying uniforms seventy percent. Do numbers like these 206 00:11:02,120 --> 00:11:06,000 Speaker 2: embolden Republicans on Capitol Hill? 207 00:11:06,160 --> 00:11:09,400 Speaker 6: Well, I don't know if they bolden Republicans. I mean, 208 00:11:09,440 --> 00:11:13,000 Speaker 6: these are pretty stark numbers to look at, and any 209 00:11:13,040 --> 00:11:16,560 Speaker 6: time you have numbers like this that are you know, 210 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:20,079 Speaker 6: the political people look at things that spike people's interests 211 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:23,679 Speaker 6: over sixty sixty five percent. These are well in excess 212 00:11:23,720 --> 00:11:27,600 Speaker 6: to that in some cases. And so, yeah, change is coming. 213 00:11:28,040 --> 00:11:32,040 Speaker 6: This was a set of issues around immigration, both the 214 00:11:32,080 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 6: border and the implementation of deportations that were wildly popular 215 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:40,600 Speaker 6: for President Trump when he ran for election only a 216 00:11:40,720 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 6: year ago, and now they've completely turned upside down to 217 00:11:43,840 --> 00:11:49,400 Speaker 6: the point where Republicans are really starting to question, especially 218 00:11:49,400 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 6: House Republicans, what do they say when they go back 219 00:11:51,880 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 6: to their constituencies for the midterm elections. They used to 220 00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:59,800 Speaker 6: be able to talk about and even demagogue. 221 00:11:59,240 --> 00:12:02,520 Speaker 7: The immigration issue because it was so gregious. 222 00:12:02,559 --> 00:12:06,280 Speaker 6: Egregious open border policy of Biden gave them something that 223 00:12:06,320 --> 00:12:07,560 Speaker 6: they could really talk about. 224 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:09,959 Speaker 7: All the time. Now that's off the table. 225 00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 6: Talking about immigration now is going to lose your votes 226 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,920 Speaker 6: if you're a Republican, not get your votes. And this 227 00:12:16,120 --> 00:12:23,959 Speaker 6: coalition that Donald Trump put together, especially young men and minorities, 228 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:27,320 Speaker 6: when you dig into that bowl, you find that it's 229 00:12:27,320 --> 00:12:30,320 Speaker 6: even worse than those categories and so they're not going 230 00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:33,400 Speaker 6: to be reliable voters for the Republican caucus come mid terms. 231 00:12:34,480 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 3: What a reversal. 232 00:12:35,240 --> 00:12:37,120 Speaker 2: And when I say in bolden, I mean in terms 233 00:12:37,120 --> 00:12:42,000 Speaker 2: of opposing the administration on this one. Jeanie I was 234 00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:44,440 Speaker 2: struck last evening on the late edition of Balance of Power. 235 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:47,360 Speaker 2: Megan Hayes, the Democratic strategist, was with us and stopped 236 00:12:47,400 --> 00:12:51,360 Speaker 2: herself when she almost said abolish ICE. She said, we 237 00:12:51,440 --> 00:12:53,360 Speaker 2: cannot use that word and went out of her way. 238 00:12:53,440 --> 00:12:55,679 Speaker 2: So we need to reform ICE because for a lot 239 00:12:55,720 --> 00:12:58,200 Speaker 2: of Democrats this sounds a heck of a lot like 240 00:12:58,280 --> 00:13:03,280 Speaker 2: defund the police. In this same poll democratic messaging, more 241 00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:09,319 Speaker 2: voters preferred reforming ICE than abolishing the agency thirty percent 242 00:13:09,800 --> 00:13:13,040 Speaker 2: to nineteen percent. How careful do progressives need to be 243 00:13:13,120 --> 00:13:13,920 Speaker 2: with that messaging. 244 00:13:15,480 --> 00:13:17,760 Speaker 8: They should be very careful with it. But it's more 245 00:13:17,800 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 8: than just the messaging. The reality is we do need 246 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:26,320 Speaker 8: a secure border. That is clear. Any thinking person knows that. 247 00:13:26,600 --> 00:13:30,120 Speaker 8: And had Donald Trump stopped at securing the border, which 248 00:13:30,240 --> 00:13:32,800 Speaker 8: he has done a very good job at, and not 249 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:36,920 Speaker 8: sent masked gunmen onto the streets of the cities, his 250 00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:40,360 Speaker 8: numbers would be absolutely reverse from what they are. So 251 00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:44,440 Speaker 8: it's not just a rhetoric issue. I think it is 252 00:13:44,480 --> 00:13:50,160 Speaker 8: the reality. We need sound border policy and patrols. And 253 00:13:50,440 --> 00:13:52,720 Speaker 8: you know, I was talking to a group of young 254 00:13:52,760 --> 00:13:56,920 Speaker 8: people yesterday and one thing that struck them is so egregious. 255 00:13:56,960 --> 00:14:00,000 Speaker 8: It sounded silly to them. But just to show people 256 00:14:00,280 --> 00:14:04,800 Speaker 8: how the insanity of what has happened here with ICE, 257 00:14:05,280 --> 00:14:08,480 Speaker 8: the idea that you would train ICE agents for forty 258 00:14:08,640 --> 00:14:12,680 Speaker 8: seven days because Donald Trump is the forty seventh president 259 00:14:12,720 --> 00:14:16,120 Speaker 8: of the United States, sounds like it's from an snl skit. 260 00:14:16,240 --> 00:14:19,720 Speaker 5: And yet that's what we are told the training amounted to. 261 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:25,680 Speaker 8: So we need serious immigration reform, we need serious border security. 262 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:27,200 Speaker 5: We don't need rhetoric. 263 00:14:27,320 --> 00:14:30,800 Speaker 8: We do need patrols, but you have to be serious 264 00:14:30,920 --> 00:14:31,360 Speaker 8: about it. 265 00:14:31,400 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 5: And execution matters. And Donald Trump should know that. 266 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:39,760 Speaker 8: Because he has consistently called Joe Biden to the carpet 267 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:43,680 Speaker 8: for what happened with US leaving Afghanistan, and yet. 268 00:14:43,560 --> 00:14:45,320 Speaker 5: That was all about execution. 269 00:14:45,840 --> 00:14:49,520 Speaker 8: Execution matters here too, and they have done that very badly. 270 00:14:49,920 --> 00:14:53,240 Speaker 8: They need to rethink the policies, the operations, the procedures, 271 00:14:53,320 --> 00:14:56,080 Speaker 8: and not just shift the people at the top. And 272 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:59,120 Speaker 8: the buck stops with Donald Trump. He is the president. 273 00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:02,760 Speaker 8: It doesn't stop with I don't believe Christino. 274 00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:07,320 Speaker 2: Well, we'll see if Christinom is even impacted by that. 275 00:15:07,360 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 2: We've only got a minute left here, Rick, we spoke 276 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 2: last evening with the author of articles of impeachment against Christinoman, 277 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 2: the House of Representatives. I think at last checks you 278 00:15:15,920 --> 00:15:19,200 Speaker 2: had one hundred and sixty something Democrats on board. Would 279 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:21,440 Speaker 2: there ever be a world in which Republicans would join 280 00:15:21,480 --> 00:15:23,480 Speaker 2: that effort or is this up to the president. 281 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:30,600 Speaker 6: It's interesting question, Joe, because this coalition and support of 282 00:15:30,640 --> 00:15:34,600 Speaker 6: the president's agenda with deportations is praying at the edges. 283 00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:38,360 Speaker 6: Tell Us isn't the only one who is speaking out 284 00:15:38,400 --> 00:15:40,880 Speaker 6: about it. In fact, even the corporate community starting to 285 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:44,880 Speaker 6: distance themselves from the Trump administration. So, look, you never 286 00:15:44,960 --> 00:15:48,600 Speaker 6: want to see another thing happen like what's been happening 287 00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:52,000 Speaker 6: in Minneapolis. But at the end of the day, anything 288 00:15:52,080 --> 00:15:56,760 Speaker 6: else that the ICE or Board agency do that puts 289 00:15:56,920 --> 00:16:00,640 Speaker 6: civilians in harm's way is going to be on fire 290 00:16:01,520 --> 00:16:05,800 Speaker 6: inside this administration and could result in Republicans voting for impeachment. 291 00:16:07,200 --> 00:16:10,320 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzo stay with us on balance 292 00:16:10,320 --> 00:16:10,720 Speaker 2: of power. 293 00:16:10,720 --> 00:16:12,520 Speaker 3: We'll have much more coming up after this. 294 00:16:16,760 --> 00:16:20,240 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 295 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:23,760 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 296 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:26,840 Speaker 1: Cockley and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You 297 00:16:26,880 --> 00:16:30,359 Speaker 1: can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship 298 00:16:30,440 --> 00:16:34,320 Speaker 1: New York station. Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 299 00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:38,640 Speaker 1: We wait on news about Iran. 300 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:41,960 Speaker 2: This is the story nobody's talking about because there's so 301 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:45,680 Speaker 2: much to talk about. Whether it's Minneapolis, whether it's the 302 00:16:45,760 --> 00:16:48,680 Speaker 2: economy of the president today out with Trump accounts. Last 303 00:16:48,720 --> 00:16:53,120 Speaker 2: evening it was affordability. We could talk about Venezuela, Greenland. 304 00:16:53,200 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 2: How about Iran. A massive armada, he says, is headed 305 00:16:57,840 --> 00:17:03,720 Speaker 2: to Iran. On truth, it is moving quickly with great power, enthusiasm, 306 00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 2: and purpose. Do we think he wrote this one? It 307 00:17:08,119 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 2: is a larger fleet, he says, headed by the great 308 00:17:10,119 --> 00:17:12,080 Speaker 2: aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln. 309 00:17:12,440 --> 00:17:14,879 Speaker 3: Then that sent to Venezuela. 310 00:17:15,119 --> 00:17:18,080 Speaker 2: Like with Venezuela, he writes, it is ready, willing and 311 00:17:18,160 --> 00:17:21,320 Speaker 2: able to rapidly fulfill its mission with speed and violence 312 00:17:21,359 --> 00:17:22,159 Speaker 2: if necessary. 313 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:26,600 Speaker 3: I mean, look, if this is pretty good writing, if you're. 314 00:17:26,440 --> 00:17:29,840 Speaker 2: Just hopefully Iran will quickly come to the table and 315 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,960 Speaker 2: negotiate a fair and equitable deal, no nuclear weapons, one 316 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:35,359 Speaker 2: that is good for all parties. We're still trying to 317 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,320 Speaker 2: figure out the what it is he is looking for. 318 00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:40,639 Speaker 2: Is it's just a nuclear deal, because originally this was 319 00:17:40,640 --> 00:17:45,159 Speaker 2: about protecting protesters. Remember, help is on its way. I 320 00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:49,560 Speaker 2: discussed this whole drive whether this ends in regime change 321 00:17:49,560 --> 00:17:53,439 Speaker 2: with Jennifer Gavito at the Coen Group yesterday here on 322 00:17:53,480 --> 00:17:54,960 Speaker 2: balance of power. Here's what she said. 323 00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:59,360 Speaker 9: You're talking about a millennia old empire, right, and so 324 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,639 Speaker 9: you know, toping the top level of leadership doesn't necessarily 325 00:18:02,680 --> 00:18:04,399 Speaker 9: bring the type of change I think that you know 326 00:18:04,440 --> 00:18:09,600 Speaker 9: people are thinking of when they speculate about helping protesters. 327 00:18:09,600 --> 00:18:13,280 Speaker 9: In fact, you know, every simulation that the US government 328 00:18:13,520 --> 00:18:16,640 Speaker 9: or military has run in recent years demonstrates that if 329 00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:18,840 Speaker 9: in fact you did take out, for example, the Supreme Leader, 330 00:18:18,880 --> 00:18:20,760 Speaker 9: the beneficiary of that would be the IRGC. 331 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:23,720 Speaker 3: Hardly a better situation for protesters. 332 00:18:25,000 --> 00:18:27,080 Speaker 2: We had the voice of Nick Wadhams for the latest 333 00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 2: on this. The leader of our National Security team is 334 00:18:31,280 --> 00:18:33,679 Speaker 2: not with me today in Washington, but at our foreign 335 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:35,120 Speaker 2: desk in London. 336 00:18:35,280 --> 00:18:35,480 Speaker 3: Nick. 337 00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 2: It's great to have you with us here, and I'm 338 00:18:37,880 --> 00:18:40,480 Speaker 2: curious your thoughts on what the president's talking about. He 339 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:42,679 Speaker 2: went on to write, as I told Ron once before, 340 00:18:42,680 --> 00:18:45,760 Speaker 2: make a deal. They didn't, and there was Operation Midnight 341 00:18:45,800 --> 00:18:48,480 Speaker 2: ham or a major destruction of Iran. The next attack 342 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:51,320 Speaker 2: will be far worse. What's about to happen? 343 00:18:53,480 --> 00:18:56,199 Speaker 10: Well, Joe, that is a fantastic question. I mean, there 344 00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:59,840 Speaker 10: is so much we learn from this tweet, because you're right, 345 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:03,119 Speaker 10: as you said, essentially all the threats that Trump had 346 00:19:03,160 --> 00:19:05,439 Speaker 10: made in the last couple of weeks against Iran, and 347 00:19:05,480 --> 00:19:09,320 Speaker 10: his whole stated reason for sending this armada to the 348 00:19:09,359 --> 00:19:13,200 Speaker 10: region was to protect those protesters and prevent the regime 349 00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:15,600 Speaker 10: from cracking down even further on them. But now he's 350 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:19,199 Speaker 10: suggesting that he's shifting back to the nuclear element and 351 00:19:19,280 --> 00:19:23,919 Speaker 10: pushing for a permanent nuclear deal. So what that tells 352 00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:26,520 Speaker 10: me is that there is a lot of credence we 353 00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:30,240 Speaker 10: should be giving to these reports and indications we have 354 00:19:30,320 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 10: that there's a lot of diplomacy going on in the region. 355 00:19:32,640 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 10: We know Iran wanted to resume some of the negotiations 356 00:19:36,800 --> 00:19:40,280 Speaker 10: and restart talks with the United States after those June 357 00:19:40,800 --> 00:19:44,679 Speaker 10: attacks basically suspended any talks on its nuclear program. So 358 00:19:44,720 --> 00:19:47,880 Speaker 10: it does seem like there's some sort of tentative thing 359 00:19:48,040 --> 00:19:51,560 Speaker 10: happening here where there is a potential for a new 360 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:55,000 Speaker 10: round of conversations. And then you have Trump falling back 361 00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:58,040 Speaker 10: into his very familiar role of carrots and sticks. Obviously, 362 00:19:58,080 --> 00:20:00,000 Speaker 10: you can't get a much bigger stick than the threat 363 00:20:00,600 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 10: of another US military attack. So whether something is imminent, 364 00:20:04,160 --> 00:20:08,080 Speaker 10: I mean that certainly is the suggestion. Wouldn't be surprised 365 00:20:08,119 --> 00:20:11,800 Speaker 10: after Venezuela, but at this point, which is still very 366 00:20:11,840 --> 00:20:13,080 Speaker 10: much in a weight and see mode. 367 00:20:14,080 --> 00:20:16,399 Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting because after those initial strikes, or 368 00:20:16,440 --> 00:20:18,520 Speaker 2: the initial strike on Iran in which we brought the 369 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:20,639 Speaker 2: B two bombers over their attacked four doh on the 370 00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:25,160 Speaker 2: other underground installations, the President said that Iran's nuclear capability 371 00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:28,639 Speaker 2: had been completely and totally obliterated. 372 00:20:29,080 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 3: Why would we need a nuclear deal if that was 373 00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:31,520 Speaker 3: the case. 374 00:20:32,880 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 10: Well, it's a great question that the Iranians are also asking, 375 00:20:36,280 --> 00:20:38,919 Speaker 10: because because they say they never intended to have a 376 00:20:39,000 --> 00:20:42,680 Speaker 10: nuclear weapon and this nuclear program was for peaceful purposes only. 377 00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:46,719 Speaker 10: Obviously a lot of skepticism about that, though US intelligence 378 00:20:46,720 --> 00:20:49,640 Speaker 10: had also determined that Iran was not making a breakout 379 00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:52,360 Speaker 10: for the bomb. But what we do know is that 380 00:20:52,760 --> 00:20:57,160 Speaker 10: despite those strikes by the US last June, Iran's stockpile 381 00:20:57,200 --> 00:21:01,439 Speaker 10: of enriched uranium remains essentially act. And we had the 382 00:21:01,560 --> 00:21:05,960 Speaker 10: UN nuclear watchdog, the IEA, essentially saying a few days 383 00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,639 Speaker 10: ago in an interview with Bloomberg, actually that they could 384 00:21:08,680 --> 00:21:09,919 Speaker 10: restart their program. 385 00:21:10,080 --> 00:21:11,680 Speaker 3: It might take a little while. 386 00:21:11,440 --> 00:21:14,040 Speaker 10: But you know, the ability to do that had not 387 00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,720 Speaker 10: been totally taken off the table. So obviously, take the 388 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:22,120 Speaker 10: president's argument that the nuclear program had been completely obliterated 389 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:25,600 Speaker 10: with a grain of salt. But it seems in some 390 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,679 Speaker 10: ways like maybe there's some tentative conversations happening, and the 391 00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:35,000 Speaker 10: President's looking to head head off another confrontation, another potential 392 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,200 Speaker 10: need to attack the nuclear sites that would essentially put 393 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:41,119 Speaker 10: paid to his claim that that program had basically been 394 00:21:41,119 --> 00:21:41,600 Speaker 10: wiped out. 395 00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:43,520 Speaker 3: Got it fascinating. 396 00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:46,280 Speaker 2: In a remaining moment, Nick, the President says, this armada 397 00:21:46,359 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 2: is bigger than the one we had off the coast 398 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:49,199 Speaker 2: of Venezuela. 399 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 3: Should we expect a blockade of oil tankers? 400 00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:55,399 Speaker 2: And is it actually larger the Jerry Ford's, the biggest 401 00:21:55,400 --> 00:21:56,560 Speaker 2: aircraft carry in the world. 402 00:21:57,760 --> 00:22:02,080 Speaker 10: Well, depending on has not disclose numbers, so we can't 403 00:22:02,119 --> 00:22:06,399 Speaker 10: really say whether this photo is actually bigger. But the 404 00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,520 Speaker 10: thing with this administration is they have so pushed beyond 405 00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:11,560 Speaker 10: the bounds of what we would have normally expected. I 406 00:22:11,560 --> 00:22:15,920 Speaker 10: mean that attack on Venezuela, capturing Maduro essentially rewrote the 407 00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:17,639 Speaker 10: rules of the game in a lot of ways. So 408 00:22:18,440 --> 00:22:20,720 Speaker 10: with that in mind, it's hard to rule anything out, 409 00:22:20,800 --> 00:22:24,080 Speaker 10: whether it's an attack or a potential blockade to really 410 00:22:24,119 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 10: put the squeeze on Iran's oil trade, particularly with China, 411 00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:29,760 Speaker 10: where they gain a great deal of revenue. 412 00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:30,960 Speaker 4: Yeah. 413 00:22:31,080 --> 00:22:33,800 Speaker 2: Nick, it's great to see you be safe over there, 414 00:22:33,840 --> 00:22:36,360 Speaker 2: and thanks for the update. As always, Nick Wadhams live 415 00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:39,680 Speaker 2: from London reporting for Bloomberg here and when we learn more, 416 00:22:39,720 --> 00:22:43,680 Speaker 2: of course, we'll bring more to you. A big good 417 00:22:43,760 --> 00:22:47,879 Speaker 2: day to Bloomberg's Matt Miller, who's joining us on his 418 00:22:48,040 --> 00:22:50,439 Speaker 2: lunch hour. Not on the air, but he's always in 419 00:22:50,480 --> 00:22:51,800 Speaker 2: the background of our conversation. 420 00:22:51,920 --> 00:22:54,639 Speaker 3: We appreciate the insights, Matt. He's about to turn to 421 00:22:54,720 --> 00:22:55,400 Speaker 3: the markets here. 422 00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:58,320 Speaker 2: It's fed day and we are flat right now, and 423 00:22:58,359 --> 00:23:00,439 Speaker 2: I guess that's the idea, right everyone's and to hear 424 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:02,640 Speaker 2: what happens at two o'clock and more importantly maybe two 425 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:05,480 Speaker 2: thirty when the news conference begins. But hey, we had 426 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,920 Speaker 2: S and P seven thousand a little earlier. This is 427 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 2: an historic day of the markets, right. Well, the S 428 00:23:10,119 --> 00:23:13,280 Speaker 2: and P is now down eight points. But Michael Reagan 429 00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:16,960 Speaker 2: is with US Bloomberg News Managing editor for US Equities 430 00:23:17,000 --> 00:23:19,160 Speaker 2: live from the shop in New York with his read 431 00:23:19,240 --> 00:23:21,359 Speaker 2: on the markets. Michael, I wanted to compare notes with 432 00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:23,680 Speaker 2: you for a couple of minutes, just about what we're 433 00:23:23,720 --> 00:23:26,320 Speaker 2: hearing here, what the sentiment is in the market as 434 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:28,960 Speaker 2: we get rolling for real in the earnings reporting season. 435 00:23:29,000 --> 00:23:32,560 Speaker 2: We had some pretty good results today. Breath has been 436 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 2: quite strong, there was a nice pop at the open, 437 00:23:36,119 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 2: and we're going to start rolling out the mag seven later. 438 00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:40,240 Speaker 2: How are you feeling about the market here, especially with 439 00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:43,480 Speaker 2: your eyes on what's happening geopolitically and in Washington. 440 00:23:43,760 --> 00:23:45,880 Speaker 11: Yeah, Joe, as you pointed out, we did hit that 441 00:23:46,040 --> 00:23:49,400 Speaker 11: seven thousand mark. Now, sometimes you can run into what's 442 00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 11: known as resistance at a big real number like that. 443 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,200 Speaker 11: For whatever reason, there are a lot of sell orders 444 00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:56,679 Speaker 11: that just kind of cluster at those levels, So that 445 00:23:56,680 --> 00:23:59,880 Speaker 11: could be a temporary resistance or a more medium term 446 00:24:00,280 --> 00:24:03,200 Speaker 11: one lot to see, But I do think the earnings 447 00:24:03,240 --> 00:24:05,960 Speaker 11: on deck for the rest of the day and into 448 00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,840 Speaker 11: next week are really enough to put any sort of 449 00:24:08,840 --> 00:24:12,240 Speaker 11: technical considerations like that round number aside. Especially today, we'll 450 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 11: have Microsoft and meta platforms the owner Facebook and Instagram reporting. 451 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:22,000 Speaker 11: Next week we'll have Alphabet and Microsoft, so we'll really 452 00:24:22,040 --> 00:24:25,320 Speaker 11: get to the heart of the AI trade. Joe, and 453 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,960 Speaker 11: I think that you know, to politics aside. I mean, 454 00:24:29,000 --> 00:24:33,360 Speaker 11: obviously the Iran tensions and the president's social media posts 455 00:24:33,680 --> 00:24:36,360 Speaker 11: earlier this morning did give a lot of people pause, 456 00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:39,800 Speaker 11: perhaps contributed to why we backed off of that seven 457 00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:42,400 Speaker 11: thousand level and are trading flat to a little bit 458 00:24:42,520 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 11: down right now. But these earnings reports are so important 459 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,640 Speaker 11: and I think really will determine the state of play 460 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:50,359 Speaker 11: in the direction of travel going forward. 461 00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:54,920 Speaker 2: Makes a lot of sense ASML blew the doors off today, right, 462 00:24:54,960 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 2: we're seeing lots of love for the storage companies. At 463 00:24:57,480 --> 00:25:02,240 Speaker 2: what point will investors be I'm sort of reconvinced on 464 00:25:02,280 --> 00:25:05,440 Speaker 2: this AI trade. Is it when Nvidia reports, who rings 465 00:25:05,440 --> 00:25:07,120 Speaker 2: the bell on this where it's safe to go back 466 00:25:07,119 --> 00:25:07,560 Speaker 2: in the water. 467 00:25:07,800 --> 00:25:09,840 Speaker 11: Yeah, you know, it's a it's a very interesting question. 468 00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,080 Speaker 11: I mean, the first reports we'll hear are from of 469 00:25:13,119 --> 00:25:15,919 Speaker 11: the some of the big spenders, not the you know, 470 00:25:16,240 --> 00:25:19,399 Speaker 11: companies really earning yet on the AI trade, not the 471 00:25:19,480 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 11: chip makers, the micron We will hear from sand disk 472 00:25:23,600 --> 00:25:26,080 Speaker 11: memory maker tomorrow night, so that'll be a big one. 473 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,879 Speaker 11: But you know, I think the question is, you know, 474 00:25:29,080 --> 00:25:35,120 Speaker 11: between Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet, we're talking about half 475 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,920 Speaker 11: a trillion dollars in planned capex from those four companies 476 00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:42,600 Speaker 11: alone this year, now last year, earlier in the year, 477 00:25:42,720 --> 00:25:46,440 Speaker 11: the market really rewarded these big, aggressive capex plans to 478 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:50,959 Speaker 11: really invest in AI technology towards the later quarters that 479 00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:53,159 Speaker 11: they reported. It was more of a kind of show me, 480 00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:55,320 Speaker 11: you know, show me the return on investment from all 481 00:25:55,320 --> 00:25:57,680 Speaker 11: this spending. So I think that's you know, the market 482 00:25:57,800 --> 00:26:00,520 Speaker 11: will be first looking for any updates to that cappex, 483 00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:03,359 Speaker 11: to any of these companies actually plan to spend more 484 00:26:03,600 --> 00:26:07,000 Speaker 11: or perhaps cut some of those cappax plans, And I 485 00:26:07,000 --> 00:26:09,159 Speaker 11: think what will be crucial will be how the market 486 00:26:09,200 --> 00:26:13,080 Speaker 11: reacts to that. Obviously, any upgrade to the spending would 487 00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:15,680 Speaker 11: be good for your chip makers, you're n videos, your 488 00:26:15,720 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 11: sand disks, your microns, anyone really that stands to be 489 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:21,960 Speaker 11: a beneficiary of that. I think the big question is 490 00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:25,639 Speaker 11: will the market reward aggressive plans by the spenders? You 491 00:26:25,640 --> 00:26:28,040 Speaker 11: know some of them, you know, obviously Amazon has a 492 00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,920 Speaker 11: big cloud business, Microsoft and Alphabet Google do as well, 493 00:26:32,080 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 11: Meta not so much. So it's really turning into a 494 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:38,920 Speaker 11: sort of stock by stock and sort of a lot 495 00:26:38,920 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 11: of discernment going on as far as you know, are 496 00:26:41,600 --> 00:26:45,280 Speaker 11: these wise investments these companies are making. Obviously spending is 497 00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,160 Speaker 11: going to be good for you know, the company selling 498 00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:50,120 Speaker 11: the chips, building the data centers and all that sort 499 00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,280 Speaker 11: of thing. But I think for the spenders, investors are 500 00:26:53,280 --> 00:26:55,480 Speaker 11: really going to start to look for what the potential 501 00:26:55,600 --> 00:26:56,600 Speaker 11: ROI is on all this. 502 00:26:56,720 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 3: Joe, Well, when. 503 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,120 Speaker 2: It all starts this evening for the mag seven, I'll 504 00:27:01,119 --> 00:27:03,400 Speaker 2: tell you what I mean. The rotation, or at least 505 00:27:03,400 --> 00:27:05,680 Speaker 2: the breadth has been fascinating for every Seagate. Have you 506 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:08,360 Speaker 2: seen Sagate of twenty percent? Today you get a GM 507 00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:10,480 Speaker 2: and I guess that's the way this is supposed to work. 508 00:27:10,520 --> 00:27:13,400 Speaker 2: Mike Reagan, thank you so much. Happy earning season. Let's 509 00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:16,120 Speaker 2: stay close with a lot more companies to report here 510 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:17,800 Speaker 2: in the days and a couple of weeks ahead. I'm 511 00:27:17,880 --> 00:27:20,960 Speaker 2: Joe Matthew and Washington will assemble our panel next stay. 512 00:27:20,680 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 3: With us on Balance of Power. We'll have much more 513 00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:23,800 Speaker 3: coming up after this. 514 00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:31,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 515 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,720 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 516 00:27:34,840 --> 00:27:38,080 Speaker 1: Apple Cockway and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. 517 00:27:38,119 --> 00:27:41,160 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 518 00:27:41,200 --> 00:27:45,680 Speaker 1: flagship New York station Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 519 00:27:47,160 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 3: Did you just see TK walk by? Charlie? Is he 520 00:27:49,440 --> 00:27:52,480 Speaker 3: in the house? Pass the studio in makeup? Also? And again? 521 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:55,320 Speaker 11: Coverage begins at one thirty and we'll take it right 522 00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,560 Speaker 11: through the very last question. Of course, Michael McKee always 523 00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:00,600 Speaker 11: among those asking the bright questions. 524 00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,000 Speaker 2: He's the last guy I'd want to call on if 525 00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,000 Speaker 2: I was Jay Pollen. I mean that in the best way. Charlie, 526 00:28:06,000 --> 00:28:08,199 Speaker 2: thank you. Say hi to Tom Keen for us. So 527 00:28:08,280 --> 00:28:11,240 Speaker 2: that means we're getting close. Tom Keen sighting in the 528 00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:15,359 Speaker 2: wild after lunch means it's fed day. And of course 529 00:28:15,440 --> 00:28:18,760 Speaker 2: our special coverage starts with Tom Keen and the family 530 00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:21,400 Speaker 2: at one thirty pm Eastern time, a little bit less 531 00:28:21,440 --> 00:28:26,040 Speaker 2: than one hour from right now. Great to have you 532 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 2: with us here at the lunch hour. I'm pretty sure 533 00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:31,720 Speaker 2: Tom Keen is good for an extra value meal number two. 534 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,880 Speaker 2: If and I listen to the program, I think that's 535 00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 2: he's a cheeseburger guy, and I get that maybe in 536 00:28:37,520 --> 00:28:39,360 Speaker 2: a splurge, he'll go for a quarter pounder. 537 00:28:41,080 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 3: Enter the burrito barometer. 538 00:28:43,720 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 2: Because we talk a lot about food prices around here, 539 00:28:46,640 --> 00:28:49,960 Speaker 2: especially you know, on balance of power or I'll getting 540 00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:52,600 Speaker 2: hungry at this time. And it's been a real dog 541 00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:54,320 Speaker 2: for the President to deal with. He talked about it 542 00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:57,240 Speaker 2: in his affordability address last evening. Grocery, as he says, 543 00:28:57,240 --> 00:29:00,680 Speaker 2: an old fashioned word, grocery. It takes a lot of 544 00:29:00,680 --> 00:29:06,080 Speaker 2: grocery to make a California burrito Axios this morning, crunching 545 00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:10,040 Speaker 2: the numbers here as an economic indicator. Okay, so we'll 546 00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:15,920 Speaker 2: make this officially our burrito barometer. Carne asada, fries, cheese, 547 00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:20,320 Speaker 2: sour cream, and salsa now costs twenty percent more to make. 548 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:24,960 Speaker 2: And it's not the beef. It's not the carne asada 549 00:29:25,000 --> 00:29:26,120 Speaker 2: that is the problem here. 550 00:29:26,280 --> 00:29:26,760 Speaker 3: Salsa. 551 00:29:26,800 --> 00:29:29,600 Speaker 2: How about this had the biggest increase at more than 552 00:29:29,680 --> 00:29:33,560 Speaker 2: thirty seven percent. The salsa is the problem. Tortillas follow 553 00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:36,800 Speaker 2: that up thirty four percent, sour cream at twenty nine percent, 554 00:29:37,160 --> 00:29:39,600 Speaker 2: the cheddar and the beef barely in the double digits. 555 00:29:40,000 --> 00:29:43,840 Speaker 2: Potato prices the one thing that went down six percent. 556 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:49,880 Speaker 2: Affordability is not just the president's issue. It is also 557 00:29:50,960 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 2: the issue for New York's new mayor. They both got 558 00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,760 Speaker 2: elected on the same issue, right, the conservative Republican as 559 00:29:56,760 --> 00:30:00,440 Speaker 2: framed by the MAGA movement and the self desis described 560 00:30:00,680 --> 00:30:03,520 Speaker 2: democratic socialist in New York who today is out with 561 00:30:03,680 --> 00:30:07,800 Speaker 2: news calling on Kathy Hochel to hike taxes, calling on 562 00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:11,800 Speaker 2: the legislature to act and increase taxes on the rich 563 00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 2: to address what he calls a fiscal crisis in New 564 00:30:14,640 --> 00:30:17,160 Speaker 2: York City. This should not be a surprise to you. 565 00:30:17,240 --> 00:30:21,840 Speaker 2: Here's Mamdani on inauguration Day, just a few hours ago. 566 00:30:21,880 --> 00:30:25,280 Speaker 12: Today I celebrated with tens of thousands of New Yorkers. 567 00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:29,360 Speaker 12: Many of them left our ceremony to return to houses 568 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 12: and apartments that do not feel like homes, where bad 569 00:30:32,920 --> 00:30:37,360 Speaker 12: landlords do not make repairs, where rents constantly rise, where 570 00:30:37,440 --> 00:30:40,040 Speaker 12: roaches crawl in the hallways, and heat in the chill 571 00:30:40,320 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 12: of winter comes rarely, if ever. These New Yorkers voted 572 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:47,240 Speaker 12: for a new day for our city because the past 573 00:30:47,280 --> 00:30:51,560 Speaker 12: one is clouded by housing, insecurity and instability, where they 574 00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:53,960 Speaker 12: cannot afford a life of dignity in the city that 575 00:30:54,000 --> 00:30:54,400 Speaker 12: they love. 576 00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:59,640 Speaker 2: He says that's about to change in New York for 577 00:30:59,680 --> 00:31:02,840 Speaker 2: every one, not just the rich, and not only here 578 00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:05,720 Speaker 2: for the poor. He says he wants to expand the 579 00:31:05,760 --> 00:31:08,280 Speaker 2: pool of people living in New York, not shrink it, 580 00:31:08,400 --> 00:31:11,880 Speaker 2: even as conservatives predict and exodus. You've heard this whole 581 00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:15,960 Speaker 2: story before, and it's one we've had with our political panel. 582 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 2: They're with us right now. Rick Davis and Genie Shanzo 583 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:22,680 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors. Genie is our democratic analyst and democracy 584 00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:25,560 Speaker 2: visiting fellow at Harvard Kennedy Schools ASH Center, and Rick 585 00:31:25,640 --> 00:31:30,240 Speaker 2: Davis a Republican strategist and partner at Stone Court Capital. Hey, Genie, 586 00:31:30,240 --> 00:31:32,600 Speaker 2: we should have known, actually, and I didn't think about 587 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,920 Speaker 2: it till right now. But that tortilla. You remember the 588 00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,720 Speaker 2: President's depression meal. It was a piece of chicken, piece 589 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:41,840 Speaker 2: of broccoli, a corn tortilla, and something else. Sure enough, 590 00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:46,480 Speaker 2: the tortilla put the burrito through the roof. Here can zoron, Mom, 591 00:31:46,560 --> 00:31:49,800 Speaker 2: Donnie convince New Yorkers that soaking the rich will help. 592 00:31:50,960 --> 00:31:53,160 Speaker 8: Yeah, I guess you're not supposed to add salsa as 593 00:31:53,200 --> 00:31:56,120 Speaker 8: that something else, Joe is that when I'm understanding that's 594 00:31:56,360 --> 00:32:03,640 Speaker 8: correct more. Yeah, you know, it's fascinating because of course 595 00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,640 Speaker 8: Mandannie made big, big campaign promises. 596 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:08,320 Speaker 5: You're just listening to him talk. 597 00:32:09,280 --> 00:32:12,120 Speaker 8: One of the constant themes that his speeches during the 598 00:32:12,160 --> 00:32:16,360 Speaker 8: campaign on inauguration Day was the crowd's chanting tax the rich. 599 00:32:17,440 --> 00:32:20,200 Speaker 8: And then just the other day, the new comptroller comes 600 00:32:20,200 --> 00:32:23,080 Speaker 8: out and says, oh, by the way, we've got a 601 00:32:23,520 --> 00:32:28,320 Speaker 8: twelve billion dollar gap here, the largest we've seen since 602 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,560 Speaker 8: two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine, over this 603 00:32:30,680 --> 00:32:34,240 Speaker 8: year and last and next year rather and you've got 604 00:32:34,240 --> 00:32:36,280 Speaker 8: to close that. And the only way to close that 605 00:32:36,480 --> 00:32:40,520 Speaker 8: is either to make deep cuts, it's to grow the economy, 606 00:32:40,640 --> 00:32:43,600 Speaker 8: or it is to tax. And of course that's coupled 607 00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:47,600 Speaker 8: on top of all of the expensive programs that Mumdannie 608 00:32:47,640 --> 00:32:51,240 Speaker 8: has said he promised to introduce, and he is really 609 00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,720 Speaker 8: doubling down. We'd seen the first sort of sniff of 610 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:57,920 Speaker 8: a maybe rift between the Governor Kathy Hokele and Mamdannie. 611 00:32:58,280 --> 00:33:00,600 Speaker 8: She's saying she's not going to raise taxes. She's up 612 00:33:00,600 --> 00:33:04,360 Speaker 8: for election, and he's saying, yeah, we need to raise taxes, 613 00:33:04,400 --> 00:33:06,480 Speaker 8: but of course he needs Albany to go ahead with that, 614 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:09,920 Speaker 8: So it's going to be potentially it's going to get 615 00:33:09,960 --> 00:33:13,160 Speaker 8: a lot more difficult in the next month as he 616 00:33:13,240 --> 00:33:16,480 Speaker 8: releases his budget and begins negotiations with city council and 617 00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:17,120 Speaker 8: then Albany. 618 00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:22,000 Speaker 2: Interesting he's launching a new ad campaign Rick to lobby 619 00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:26,680 Speaker 2: Albany for more annual aid, emphasizing that New York generates 620 00:33:26,680 --> 00:33:29,080 Speaker 2: twenty one billion dollars more in revenue for the state 621 00:33:29,120 --> 00:33:33,120 Speaker 2: than it receives. You've heard this whole conversation before. What 622 00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:35,760 Speaker 2: is he about to learn in this drive for higher 623 00:33:35,800 --> 00:33:39,480 Speaker 2: taxes on the wealthy? Does he run into a wall 624 00:33:39,760 --> 00:33:41,120 Speaker 2: in his first month in office? 625 00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:43,320 Speaker 7: Yeah? 626 00:33:43,360 --> 00:33:44,960 Speaker 6: I think that there are a lot of walls that 627 00:33:45,360 --> 00:33:48,280 Speaker 6: Mayor Mondani's going to run into. But the one that 628 00:33:48,440 --> 00:33:53,080 Speaker 6: is everyone expected was with Donald Trump and after the 629 00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:57,080 Speaker 6: love fest in the Oval office post election, we're not 630 00:33:57,120 --> 00:33:59,520 Speaker 6: going to see the fight with on a national scale, 631 00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,760 Speaker 6: but definitely we're going to see that fight between the 632 00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 6: city and the state, and by the way, a fight 633 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:08,319 Speaker 6: that happens every budget cycle. You know, Jeanie talked about 634 00:34:08,320 --> 00:34:11,600 Speaker 6: the twelve billion dollar budget deficit. The city's got well 635 00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,880 Speaker 6: receipts this year because it was a good year for taxes. 636 00:34:15,680 --> 00:34:18,080 Speaker 6: People got paid a lot of money in Wall Street. 637 00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:21,360 Speaker 6: Are up seventeen billion dollars at the state level, so 638 00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,680 Speaker 6: they got seventeen billion more than they were expecting to 639 00:34:24,680 --> 00:34:28,160 Speaker 6: get this year and the city has twelve billion less. Well, 640 00:34:28,160 --> 00:34:30,200 Speaker 6: there's going to be a rub there. And I have 641 00:34:30,400 --> 00:34:33,040 Speaker 6: I have a funny feeling. Mandannie's not going to back down. 642 00:34:33,160 --> 00:34:36,520 Speaker 6: So Hokle wants to run for reelection. She's got a 643 00:34:36,960 --> 00:34:40,719 Speaker 6: decent challenger in Brad Blakeman on the GOP side, and 644 00:34:41,000 --> 00:34:44,120 Speaker 6: like she's already said no new taxes. So who's going 645 00:34:44,200 --> 00:34:44,960 Speaker 6: to cave first? 646 00:34:45,120 --> 00:34:46,239 Speaker 7: Is it the mayor? 647 00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:49,160 Speaker 6: The Democratic Socialists you know in office for a couple 648 00:34:49,200 --> 00:34:52,720 Speaker 6: of months, or a governor looking for a second term 649 00:34:52,960 --> 00:34:56,200 Speaker 6: who really controls the power in Albany right now? 650 00:34:57,080 --> 00:34:58,680 Speaker 3: Wow, really interesting, Genie. 651 00:34:58,760 --> 00:35:00,719 Speaker 2: So the mayor could find him self at odds with 652 00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:03,200 Speaker 2: the governor and the President of the United States. 653 00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,279 Speaker 3: Is the honeymoon with Trump officially over? 654 00:35:06,840 --> 00:35:09,480 Speaker 8: Not yet? And it's interesting, Joe, he's taking a page 655 00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:13,320 Speaker 8: out of Donald Trump's playbook. He is blaming the previous administration, 656 00:35:13,480 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 8: and I think there is some truth to this, but 657 00:35:17,080 --> 00:35:20,520 Speaker 8: he is blaming Adams mayor Eric Adams administration for the 658 00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:21,640 Speaker 8: budget shortfall. 659 00:35:22,160 --> 00:35:25,120 Speaker 5: But he has been a little bit tougher. 660 00:35:24,800 --> 00:35:28,160 Speaker 8: With his language vis a vis the governor because if 661 00:35:28,200 --> 00:35:30,840 Speaker 8: we remember back in the campaign, in the first few weeks, 662 00:35:30,880 --> 00:35:32,880 Speaker 8: he said, you know, as long as I can do 663 00:35:32,920 --> 00:35:35,000 Speaker 8: what I need to do, while I just need the 664 00:35:35,080 --> 00:35:37,400 Speaker 8: money and I'll do it, maybe we don't need taxes. 665 00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,960 Speaker 8: Now he is starting to say we do need these taxes, 666 00:35:41,239 --> 00:35:43,799 Speaker 8: and he's saying something all New York City mayors say, 667 00:35:43,840 --> 00:35:46,279 Speaker 8: which is that we're giving about fifty five percent of 668 00:35:46,280 --> 00:35:49,480 Speaker 8: the tax revenue for the state and as you talked about, getting. 669 00:35:49,239 --> 00:35:51,280 Speaker 5: Back only about forty four percent. 670 00:35:51,719 --> 00:35:56,160 Speaker 8: And this puts Kathy Hochel in a really difficult position because, 671 00:35:56,160 --> 00:36:00,920 Speaker 8: of course, if she is primaried Mumdani, he pushes this 672 00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:05,040 Speaker 8: and pushes for a primary challenge for her, and he 673 00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:08,200 Speaker 8: doesn't get what he wants. That's a big problem for her. 674 00:36:08,320 --> 00:36:10,759 Speaker 8: Of course, she's running in a pretty good environment for 675 00:36:10,840 --> 00:36:13,920 Speaker 8: Democrats this year, but it's going to be challenging because 676 00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:16,600 Speaker 8: let's not forget you know he's pushing for things like 677 00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:20,040 Speaker 8: free buses. Well, she runs the whole state and people 678 00:36:20,080 --> 00:36:21,920 Speaker 8: and the other parts of the state are going to 679 00:36:21,920 --> 00:36:24,160 Speaker 8: be saying, wait, why are in New York City residents 680 00:36:24,160 --> 00:36:27,040 Speaker 8: getting free buses and billions of dollars and we're not. 681 00:36:27,520 --> 00:36:30,760 Speaker 8: So it's a little bit more difficult for Kathy hopeol 682 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,560 Speaker 8: to to, you know, circle this square. 683 00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:36,920 Speaker 2: Hey, Rick, I heard I heard Mayor Mom Donnie on 684 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,160 Speaker 2: brand X this morning talking about the fact that he 685 00:36:40,320 --> 00:36:44,040 Speaker 2: was going to do something different than the last administration. Yes, 686 00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:46,879 Speaker 2: Eric Adams, but also those who came before him, by 687 00:36:46,920 --> 00:36:49,799 Speaker 2: being honest with the people of New York about the 688 00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:50,840 Speaker 2: budget shortfall. 689 00:36:50,920 --> 00:36:52,360 Speaker 3: Does he deserve some credit for that? 690 00:36:54,160 --> 00:36:56,399 Speaker 6: Sure? I think that he's going to do a little 691 00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:58,200 Speaker 6: straight talk and that's a good thing that people in 692 00:36:58,239 --> 00:37:00,759 Speaker 6: New York deserve it. He's not going to make any 693 00:37:00,760 --> 00:37:03,759 Speaker 6: friends upstate, as Jenny just said. But at the end 694 00:37:03,760 --> 00:37:07,040 Speaker 6: of the day, the New York City the Five boroughs 695 00:37:07,360 --> 00:37:10,359 Speaker 6: is the economic engine in the entire state and they 696 00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:13,720 Speaker 6: haven't gotten the respect that they probably deserve. And previous 697 00:37:13,800 --> 00:37:15,120 Speaker 6: mayors have said the same thing. 698 00:37:15,520 --> 00:37:16,480 Speaker 7: So there's nothing. 699 00:37:16,239 --> 00:37:19,960 Speaker 6: New there but coming to grips with the current fiscal 700 00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:25,400 Speaker 6: problems of the city with the residents because without a 701 00:37:25,440 --> 00:37:29,040 Speaker 6: lifeline from Albany, we're talking cutbacks. We're not talking about 702 00:37:29,040 --> 00:37:30,960 Speaker 6: a lot of new programs that the mayor is going 703 00:37:31,000 --> 00:37:33,040 Speaker 6: to be doing. He's got to go find twelve billion 704 00:37:33,080 --> 00:37:35,360 Speaker 6: dollars and that's not an easy thing in a budget 705 00:37:35,440 --> 00:37:38,720 Speaker 6: like New York's. So, you know, the only thing less 706 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,560 Speaker 6: popular than telling children on a snow day that they 707 00:37:41,640 --> 00:37:43,080 Speaker 6: got us go to school. 708 00:37:42,840 --> 00:37:45,320 Speaker 7: Virtually is to then pay the people. 709 00:37:46,160 --> 00:37:49,520 Speaker 6: You've just generated the biggest tax windfall in you know, 710 00:37:49,760 --> 00:37:51,880 Speaker 6: modern history in the state, but you're going to have 711 00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:54,320 Speaker 6: to make cutbacks in the city because we can't afford things. 712 00:37:55,400 --> 00:37:58,400 Speaker 2: Sounds like this January is going great so far, Genie. 713 00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:00,920 Speaker 2: Does the governor need to say something if the mayor's 714 00:38:01,000 --> 00:38:02,840 Speaker 2: up with an ad campaign over this? 715 00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:05,480 Speaker 5: Yeah, and she is. 716 00:38:05,560 --> 00:38:07,600 Speaker 8: She did her State of the State, she put out 717 00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:11,160 Speaker 8: her budget. She is walking this fine line. They came 718 00:38:11,200 --> 00:38:14,319 Speaker 8: out seven days into the administration and said they were 719 00:38:14,560 --> 00:38:18,319 Speaker 8: piloting a new program in terms of child's care. I 720 00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:20,279 Speaker 8: think they took a little bit of a big win 721 00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,040 Speaker 8: there where that may not be deserved. But she is 722 00:38:23,120 --> 00:38:25,759 Speaker 8: trying to walk this fine line. But This is going 723 00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,759 Speaker 8: to be tough for her because she doesn't have the 724 00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:32,200 Speaker 8: energy in the moderate wing of the Democratic Party in 725 00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:35,480 Speaker 8: this state that Mamdanie has in the left flank, and 726 00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:37,759 Speaker 8: that's going to be the problem for her. And of 727 00:38:37,800 --> 00:38:41,400 Speaker 8: course there's problems for him as well, and Democrats writ large, 728 00:38:41,840 --> 00:38:45,800 Speaker 8: this is moderate's worst nightmare. This is why Donald Trump 729 00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:49,319 Speaker 8: wants the Republicans to run against Gavin Newsom. Is this 730 00:38:49,480 --> 00:38:53,040 Speaker 8: idea that you're going to drive corporations and the wealthiest 731 00:38:53,080 --> 00:38:54,920 Speaker 8: out of your city and out of your state. 732 00:38:55,400 --> 00:38:57,279 Speaker 5: I mean, the irony here is. 733 00:38:57,200 --> 00:39:01,359 Speaker 8: That the very people he's talking about tech high, the 734 00:39:01,440 --> 00:39:03,920 Speaker 8: top two percent of the earners in New York City, 735 00:39:04,280 --> 00:39:07,920 Speaker 8: They pay fifty percent of New York City's taxes. So 736 00:39:08,040 --> 00:39:10,200 Speaker 8: what does that do to the working class and the 737 00:39:10,680 --> 00:39:13,480 Speaker 8: middle class If those people do flee, and I'm not 738 00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:16,680 Speaker 8: saying they will, but if they do, that creates the 739 00:39:16,760 --> 00:39:20,239 Speaker 8: kind of problem that is a nightmare for Democrats. And 740 00:39:20,280 --> 00:39:22,719 Speaker 8: so you know, it is a tough time for both 741 00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:25,640 Speaker 8: of them. But surely this budget shortfall that the new 742 00:39:25,680 --> 00:39:29,759 Speaker 8: controller talking about is a big problem for Mandani just 743 00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:32,840 Speaker 8: balancing the buddet let alone, getting all his big promises 744 00:39:32,880 --> 00:39:33,600 Speaker 8: put in place. 745 00:39:34,719 --> 00:39:36,359 Speaker 3: Rick, we've got just one minute left. 746 00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:39,640 Speaker 2: The mayor came into office with predictions of an exodus, 747 00:39:39,640 --> 00:39:43,920 Speaker 2: that if this social democrat in fact won the mayor's office, 748 00:39:44,320 --> 00:39:48,200 Speaker 2: that wealthy people would simply leave New York if this happened. 749 00:39:48,719 --> 00:39:50,120 Speaker 3: Is this what would actually cause it? 750 00:39:51,760 --> 00:39:56,360 Speaker 6: Well, we've seen similar tax programs in California that have 751 00:39:58,000 --> 00:40:04,359 Speaker 6: or required encouraged major taxpayers to leave the state. In fact, 752 00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:08,360 Speaker 6: Mondani has said previously that he'd consider the five percent 753 00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:12,360 Speaker 6: tax on billionaires. You know, paying a fifty million dollar 754 00:40:13,400 --> 00:40:16,600 Speaker 6: tax on your one billion dollars in the bank is 755 00:40:17,400 --> 00:40:18,879 Speaker 6: even to a billionaire a. 756 00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:19,359 Speaker 3: Lot of bite. 757 00:40:20,520 --> 00:40:23,359 Speaker 2: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano, thank you both so much 758 00:40:23,800 --> 00:40:28,080 Speaker 2: for the insights. Thanks for listening to the Balance of 759 00:40:28,160 --> 00:40:31,680 Speaker 2: Power podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you haven't already, 760 00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:35,000 Speaker 2: at Apple, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts, and 761 00:40:35,040 --> 00:40:37,680 Speaker 2: you can find us live every weekday from Washington, DC 762 00:40:37,840 --> 00:40:40,560 Speaker 2: at New Time Eastern at Bloomberg dot com.