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Speaker 1: gambler And now let's start the show.

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Speaker 2: All right, Here we go fifteen thirty five cony five

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Speaker 2: fifty kicks.

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Speaker 3: Black College.

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Speaker 4: Stunn, Oh my godness, past the.

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Speaker 1: Lateral U dou.

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Speaker 2: Table, off the dail the night.

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Speaker 1: It's not the side on the dog.

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Speaker 3: In the fight, it's the size of.

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Speaker 1: The fight in the Dog.

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast presented by

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Speaker 3: win Bet. I'm your host, Mike Calibery's and I am

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Speaker 3: joined by my Action Network colleague Mike Ianello. Stuck in

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Speaker 3: Colin will continue to drop their weekly college football betting

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Speaker 3: previews late night every Thursday and the Friday morning this

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Speaker 3: season on the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, but every

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Speaker 3: Wednesday afternoon. We are thrilled to be bringing to you

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Speaker 3: loyal listeners the Group of Five Deep Dive. It's gonna

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Speaker 3: be a short episode cover the best weekly gambling angles

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Speaker 3: and betting matchups across the greatest conferences in college football.

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Speaker 3: So you know what that means. Time to strap on

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Speaker 3: those fun belts, believe in a little maction, and get

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Speaker 3: ready for a party in the Conference USA. We're going

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Speaker 3: to iron this out. This is going to be really tight.

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Speaker 3: We're going to get some cool names for the AAC

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Speaker 3: and the Mountain West. We're going to make sure that

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Speaker 3: it all works. And I'd like to take this opportunity

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Speaker 3: to welcome my co host, Mike Ianello, who has also

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Speaker 3: had an incredible passion for the Group of Five all

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Speaker 3: these years. Let's go start it. Who is your favorite

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Speaker 3: Deep cut group of five player. Ever, when you name

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Speaker 3: drop someone like this, everyone just knows your bona fides

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Speaker 3: and you are a legit guy who lives and breathes

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Speaker 3: these weird small conferences.

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Speaker 4: Mike, how you doing, Hey, breeze, Yeah, I'm excited to

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Speaker 4: be here. It's week zero. College football is finally here,

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Speaker 4: and yeah we're talking to G five. My favorite group

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Speaker 4: of five player is Luke Getsy, the old quarterback from

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Speaker 4: Akron back in the day. You know, I believe it

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Speaker 4: was like five oh six, he was the Acron quarterback.

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Speaker 4: Maybe it's a little bit cheating because I am a

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Speaker 4: Packers fan and he is the the Packers quarterback coach

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Speaker 4: right now. So yeah, I'm gonna give a little shout

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Speaker 4: out to Luke Getsy, you know, pride to Munhall, Pennsylvania.

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Speaker 4: I know we're both PA guys. And now now he's

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Speaker 4: coaching up the MVP. So I think half of Aaron

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Speaker 4: Rodgers success should be, you know, credited to the MAC.

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Speaker 2: So shoutout Luke Getsy.

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Speaker 3: I would say one of the first two players I

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Speaker 3: fell in love with. Both came from Northern Illinois. Talking

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Speaker 3: Michael to Burner Turner and Garrett Wolfe. I just love

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Speaker 3: their production. The fact that they could run up those

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Speaker 3: crazy numbers. I think that was the wild wild West

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Speaker 3: days of the MAC. I think they've come back to

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Speaker 3: earth a little bit. But hopefully this season we get

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Speaker 3: to see some high flying offenses. Western Michigan, in particular

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Speaker 3: with LBI at quarterback, has an opportunity to shock the

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Speaker 3: world a Week one against Michigan and just to kind

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Speaker 3: of set the table for what we're going to discuss

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Speaker 3: in this episode, we're going to get into teams we

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Speaker 3: are thrilled to bet on en Fade this year some

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Speaker 3: win totals and also get into week zero because the

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Speaker 3: gambling gods have blessed us with you know, a nice

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Speaker 3: little G five buffet, some G five versus G five

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Speaker 3: action as well as you know that Hawaii UCLA game.

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Speaker 3: So lots of things to get into, but let's get

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Speaker 3: it started with this. Every season, I don't know, if

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Speaker 3: you're like myself, you dig into those college football magazines,

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Speaker 3: you start reading the analytics, and you start talking yourself

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Speaker 3: into and out of certain teams by the time I

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Speaker 3: don't know, May rolls around. So now that we're here

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Speaker 3: in August, there's teams you have to be chopping at

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Speaker 3: the bit to bet on or bet against. And I'll

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Speaker 3: get this started with a team that I am really

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Speaker 3: excited to fade throughout this entire season, and it's New

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Speaker 3: Mexico State. You can see them up on the bookshelf

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Speaker 3: behind me with the guns. Flair in Mexico State is

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Speaker 3: a tire fire in a year in which over I

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Speaker 3: want to say close to sixty sixty five teams returned

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Speaker 3: seventy percent or more of their production from last year

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Speaker 3: because of the COVID bonus year super seniors transfers being

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Speaker 3: eligible right away. The work that Colin Wilson has done

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Speaker 3: for the Action Network with his TARP ratings have been incredible,

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Speaker 3: but it just indicates that so many teams are bringing

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Speaker 3: so much experience back. Not New Mexico State. They return

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Speaker 3: to starters. And this is a team that actually played

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Speaker 3: in the spring, so they were going off against FCS

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Speaker 3: teams lost to Tarleton State by twenty six and they

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Speaker 3: needed a furious fourth quarter comeback to beat Dixie State,

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Speaker 3: which sounds like a problematic Create a team from NCAA

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Speaker 3: Football ninety eight. This team is just no good. They

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Speaker 3: can't stop the run, certainly, so right out of the

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Speaker 3: gate playing against UTEP. I love UTEP on the money line.

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Speaker 3: I'm going to tag it on as a free multiplier

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Speaker 3: to every bet I make in week zero. You know,

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Speaker 3: New Mexico State is just a program that really should

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Speaker 3: be dropping down to the FCS level, and even if

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Speaker 3: they did that, they probably be in the bottom third

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Speaker 3: of FCS just because of you know, factors that have

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Speaker 3: bubbled up through recruiting, mainly that speak to the buy

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Speaker 3: in from the university, which is they don't care about

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Speaker 3: this program. So I'm excited to bet against them. I

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Speaker 3: know that they are an independent, but we are going

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Speaker 3: to you know, open our doors and open our arms

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Speaker 3: lovingly to this independence to be a part of this

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Speaker 3: G five deep dive. Who's the team that you're looking

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Speaker 3: forward to fade?

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Speaker 4: I like how we're starting negative on the shows. That's

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Speaker 4: kind of the map how the G five is. You know,

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Speaker 4: it's just it's bad football, and it's fun to bet

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Speaker 4: on bad football or against it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a couple that came to mind.

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Speaker 4: If I'll start with kind of a similar sentiment to you,

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Speaker 4: you know, fading teams that aren't returning production considering everyone

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Speaker 4: else's I'm gonna go with Arkansas State. I think, you know,

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Speaker 4: they were kind of an exciting offense last year. They've

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Speaker 4: they've low key been a very consistent G five team.

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Speaker 4: They've had a ton of good coaches, uh you know,

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Speaker 4: come through that program. But Blake Anderson left for Utah State,

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Speaker 4: which I don't know about you, but I thought was

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Speaker 4: a very weird move that seems, you know, at worst

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Speaker 4: a lateral move, if not a step down.

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Speaker 2: I'm not sure why he left Arkansas State, but he

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Speaker 2: basically took their whole team with him.

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Speaker 4: You know, he took obviously the lost Jonathan Adams, who

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Speaker 4: is one of the best G five receivers we've seen

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Speaker 4: in the last couple of years to the NFL.

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Speaker 2: Just go shut Adams, this kid is amazing.

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Speaker 4: I took their quarterback, Logan Bonner, he took you know,

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Speaker 4: Brandon Bowling, their best receiver, he took their best linebacker.

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Speaker 4: They only have five starters on offense and defense coming back.

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Speaker 4: Their leading rushers gone. So you know, their defense was

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Speaker 4: horrible last year and their offense was just very good.

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Speaker 4: And now with Blake Anderson gone, taking you know, basically

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Speaker 4: half their team with him, Arkansas State's definitely a team

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Speaker 4: I'm gonna look to fade early on, especially as you know,

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Speaker 4: they did run two quarterbacks last year, so Solane Hatcher

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Speaker 4: is still there, and I actually do think Lane Hatcher

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Speaker 4: is very good. But just with so much, you know,

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Speaker 4: with so much guys not coming back and so many

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Speaker 4: news starters, and their defense was already a mess. Now

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Speaker 4: they only bring back the five guys. So Arkansas State's

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Speaker 4: definitely a team I'm gonna look to fade, especially early

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Speaker 4: on in the year.

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Speaker 3: Their team. It's a bit of a wait and see

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Speaker 3: situation for me because I don't want to allow but

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Speaker 3: Jones's you know, recent head coaching work, if we can

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Speaker 3: call it that to overly color my thought on him

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Speaker 3: as a head coach, because he's had tremendous success at

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Speaker 3: the G five level, is the reason why he got

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Speaker 3: the Tennessee job. While he was on that's you know,

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Speaker 3: trajectory to being a very successful college football coach. So

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Speaker 3: having rehabilitated himself in Tuscaloosa, I think there's a chance

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Speaker 3: that he gets the program headed in the right direction.

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Speaker 3: But I agree with you, there's so many holes, and

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Speaker 3: particularly in a Sunbelt conference, that top to bottom is

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Speaker 3: really quite good this year, And I mentioned those TARP

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Speaker 3: ratings earlier, about half of the league returned seventy percent

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Speaker 3: more of their overall production. So these are grown men

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Speaker 3: playing on these teams. These are teams that are not

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Speaker 3: searching for identity, So you have to be really laser

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Speaker 3: focused and running your stuff to the best of your

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Speaker 3: ability to compete week in and week out. So I

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Speaker 3: do think it's going to be difficult for them to

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Speaker 3: put in a new scheme replace a lot of those

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Speaker 3: offensive playmakers on the perimeter. And also I'm just interested

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Speaker 3: from both a fantasy perspective as someone who cares about

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Speaker 3: college fantasy football and just from a skill position perspective.

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Speaker 3: Layane Hatcher played really well, but he played in that

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Speaker 3: weird musical chairs situation, and how does that impact to

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Speaker 3: quarterbacks mentality? Now he's the guy. There's no looking over

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Speaker 3: his shoulder, which is a positive, but there's also no

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Speaker 3: one bailing them out coming out of the bullpen the

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Speaker 3: way that they did it last year. So I'm going

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Speaker 3: to be intrigued to see how he handles being the

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Speaker 3: face of the program, so to speak. Teams that I'm excited, Yeah,

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Speaker 3: so go ahead.

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Speaker 4: And he's doing it without his top top two receivers.

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Speaker 4: Like I said, you know, Adams has gone, Bowing's gone,

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Speaker 4: so he said, he's got the guy to take on

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Speaker 4: the roll, and he doesn't have kind of his safety

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Speaker 4: nets or his running back are all gone.

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Speaker 2: So I agree with you.

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Speaker 4: I like Hatcher, but I'm just you know, I'm nervous.

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Speaker 4: I'm kind of a wait and see, maybe fade early,

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Speaker 4: you know, like you said, maybe they put together late

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Speaker 4: in the year, but I didn't, for think the first

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Speaker 4: couple of games. I want to see how Hatcher handles

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Speaker 4: that pressure with new weapons and a new coach, and

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Speaker 4: so I probably will fade them and spots really on

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Speaker 4: and I just want to throw in really quick.

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Speaker 2: One more team.

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Speaker 4: I know we've mentioned TARP and returning production, which is huge.

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Speaker 4: One team I think has very misleading returning production that

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Speaker 4: I'm going to faith is Northern Illinois because they brought

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Speaker 4: back basically all of their starters, but all their starters

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Speaker 4: were true freshmen last year. So even though you know

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Speaker 4: they returned their whole production, they're still just sophomores. And

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Speaker 4: like you said, they're playing against grown men, they're still

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Speaker 4: just sophomores.

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Speaker 2: They were bad last year.

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Speaker 4: They brought in Rocky Lombardi, who I'm a big ten guy,

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Speaker 4: went to Penn State. I hate rock right, I think

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Speaker 4: he's so bad, So you know, is that even an upgrade?

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Speaker 2: I don't know. So you know, they have Lombardi a quarterback.

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Speaker 4: I think their tarp is misleading because they brought everyone back,

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Speaker 4: but they're still just sophomore. So Northern Illinois is definitely

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Speaker 4: another team I'm looking to fait. Actually, their win total

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Speaker 4: was like four and a half I found, so I

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Speaker 4: definitely I took that.

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Speaker 2: That seems like a lock. So those are those are?

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Speaker 2: That's another one I want to throw out there.

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Speaker 3: I'm glad that you brought up a tarp one more

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Speaker 3: time because there's a kind of a finer point that

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Speaker 3: Colin Wilson has mentioned in articles, but for those of

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Speaker 3: you just quickly cross referencing it, you know, trying to

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Speaker 3: put together your Saturday cards and saying, hey, this team

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Speaker 3: returns to eighty one percent of their production. You know

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Speaker 3: what exactly does that mean? There's a caveat in there

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Speaker 3: where he balances it based on the programs and the

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Speaker 3: offenses that they run. So if a team throws the

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Speaker 3: ball seventy percent of the time, and they bring in

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Speaker 3: a thousand yard rusher, that's not as meaningful as a

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Speaker 3: ground and pound team bringing that thousand yard rusher. And

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Speaker 3: the same goes in the opposite direction. If you were

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Speaker 3: to bring in a receiver from an offense that is

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Speaker 3: going to give out tons of targets, that's more meaningful

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Speaker 3: than a receiver that's probably going to get three or

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Speaker 3: four in a ball control offense. So just a finer

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Speaker 3: point that I wanted to highlight there, keeping it positive.

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Speaker 3: Looking at some teams that we like. I'm going to

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Speaker 3: start in the sun Belt West and it's Texas State

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Speaker 3: now down in San Marcos. This is a program that's

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Speaker 3: been spinning its wheels three to nine two years ago,

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Speaker 3: two to ten last year. I think the average casual

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Speaker 3: fan is going to look at it and say to themselves,

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Speaker 3: as a program headed in the right direction, Spabatal is

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Speaker 3: probably gonna get fired. They need to go in a

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Speaker 3: different direction. I don't view it that way. What I

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Speaker 3: saw last year on the field, particularly in their non

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Speaker 3: conference schedule. They challenged themselves with SMU a game where

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Speaker 3: they were three touchdown plus underdogs, and that's a single

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Speaker 3: score game, and then they go to Chestnut Hill and

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Speaker 3: almost beat a very good Boston College team, particularly now

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Speaker 3: that Jakovic has given them an offensive identity. They're moving

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Speaker 3: out of the Adazio days to be in a one

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Speaker 3: score game with Boston College. That to me speaks to

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Speaker 3: their overall ceiling and particularly against the spread. You can

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Speaker 3: check out, you know, numbers on a weekly basis over

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Speaker 3: a win bet. This is a team that was seven

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Speaker 3: and five against the spread last season, even though they

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Speaker 3: were two and ten overall. You know, straight up, I

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Speaker 3: think that's going to be kind of carrying the day

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Speaker 3: here into twenty twenty one because their team that is

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Speaker 3: constantly overlooked. Brady McBride just won the starting job, so

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Speaker 3: they're gonna have some continuity. They also have some depth

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Speaker 3: with it behind them as QB one, and so much

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Speaker 3: returning production. Think about this, They had so much coming back.

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Speaker 3: They recruited exactly zero high school kids. They only brought

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Speaker 3: people in in the portal and Juco's that's it. So

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Speaker 3: everyone they brought in is ready to contribute. Their grown men,

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Speaker 3: you know, to continue with that analogy, and they have

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Speaker 3: so much continuity with their staff, with their players. They

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Speaker 3: did a great job last year getting twelve games in

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Speaker 3: and that to me speaks to the effectiveness of the staff.

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Speaker 3: They had zero COVID issues, they were able to keep

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Speaker 3: it going. I think there's a lot of positives, particularly

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Speaker 3: for a two intent team. So I'm looking forward to

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Speaker 3: playing them this season. Who's a team that you're just,

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Speaker 3: you know, fired up. As soon as that number hits

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Speaker 3: the board, you're slamming them.

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Speaker 4: I'm going to go out to the Mountain West. You know,

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Speaker 4: the mountainse is going to be an interesting conference this year.

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Speaker 4: You know you have Boise State's going to be strong,

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Speaker 4: San Jose State, you know, Nevada, Wyoming. I'm really excited

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Speaker 4: about this Fresno State team. You know, Carson Strong's gonna

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Speaker 4: get all the love. He's probably the best G five quarterback.

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Speaker 4: You know, he might be a first round pick when

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Speaker 4: it's all said and done. But I love Jake Hanner.

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Speaker 4: He is awesome and he's probably the second best quarterback

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Speaker 4: in that conference. You know, former Washington transfer, so he

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Speaker 4: has that that P five experience. He bawled out last

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Speaker 4: year three hundred yards and four of the six games

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Speaker 4: actually going against Carlton Strong, he threw for four hundred

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Speaker 4: and eighty five yards against Nevada. They bring back their

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Speaker 4: top five wide receivers, Jalen Cooper, Josh Keller. Studs running

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Speaker 4: back Ronnie Rivers is awesome. He was all Max last year.

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Speaker 4: He's like this little five nine one ninety five. He's

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Speaker 4: great in the past game. He's just this quick, shifty

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Speaker 4: little back. Their defense is interesting, it'll be fun. Uh

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Speaker 4: they're third in the country and sacks last year. Love

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Speaker 4: to blitz, but did get torched in the run a

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Speaker 4: little bit. So they bring back ten starters, so hopefully

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Speaker 4: we can you know, settle settle in the run game,

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Speaker 4: a little bit on defense. But they're definitely a team

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Speaker 4: I'm very excited about. You know, they're over until it's

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Speaker 4: only six, so I took a little bit on the

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Speaker 4: over there. I just think they're a fun team. They're

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Speaker 4: gonna be very do or die. Their offense can beete

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Speaker 4: with anyone. It's one of the best in the country.

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Speaker 4: And like I said, their defense, you know, plays aggressive.

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Speaker 2: It takes risks. So I think they'll have.

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Speaker 4: Games where they win that they probably shouldn't, you know,

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Speaker 4: then they they'll probably lose a game that they shouldn't lose.

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Speaker 4: But I think they'll they'll definitely I think they'll get

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Speaker 4: one of those those top dogs in the Mountain West,

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Speaker 4: whether it's they play Boise at home, but then you know,

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Speaker 4: they go and they play Nevada at home, which another

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Speaker 4: big one, but go to San Diego State, go to

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Speaker 4: San Jose State, go to Wyoming. I think they'll get

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Speaker 4: one of those big dogs in the Mountain West. And

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Speaker 4: so I'm very excited about this this Fresno State team.

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Speaker 4: And they're definitely team I'm gonna look a.

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Speaker 1: Bet a lot.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, they're big three of Painter and Ronnie Rivers and

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Speaker 3: Jalen Cropper. I agree. I think it's it's arguably the

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Speaker 3: best in the Mountain West. And they have a nice

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Speaker 3: springboard opportunity. It's a neck crack game in weeks zero

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Speaker 3: against Yukon, a Yukon team that didn't play last year.

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Speaker 3: That Bill Conley's you know sp plus is looking at

336
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Speaker 3: a bottom three defense, so they should probably, you know,

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Speaker 3: if they can continue to hot streak from last season,

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Speaker 3: score in the forties fifties in that game, and then

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Speaker 3: they have an opportunity to shock the world in Week

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Speaker 3: one against Oregon, who is in a classic look ahead

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Speaker 3: spot with Ohio State on deck, so to come in

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Speaker 3: with a little positive momentum. It's something we discussed, you know,

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Speaker 3: before the podcast even started, this idea of these teams

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Speaker 3: that are incomplete. Either their they're high scoring offensively and

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Speaker 3: just a SIV defensively, or you know, they love to

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Speaker 3: play ball control and they can really rely on their defense.

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Speaker 3: Just incremental improvements can make a huge difference, not only

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Speaker 3: in their straight up record, but how they're doing at

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Speaker 3: the betting window. And in this particular instance, I agree

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Speaker 3: with you their defense against the run last year was

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Speaker 3: left a lot to be desired. If they can get

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Speaker 3: just a little bit better, if they can improve by

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Speaker 3: ten slots, you know, overall and total defense while maintaining

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Speaker 3: that attack attacking mentality, getting after the quarterback, creating tackles

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Speaker 3: for loss. I think this is a team that not

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Speaker 3: only is going to buy for the Mountain West, but

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Speaker 3: I certainly have my interests peaked against them or for them,

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Speaker 3: I should say, against Oregon ink in Week one. So

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Speaker 3: these are teams that we're excited to play. But really

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Speaker 3: it comes down to, you know, at this point in

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Speaker 3: the season, what are some win totals, what are some

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Speaker 3: you know, maybe conference futures that you still have and

363
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Speaker 3: there's still time head over to win bet to be

364
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Speaker 3: able to get those bets in before the season start

365
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Speaker 3: and have a little action, you know, riding the whole year.

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Speaker 3: So I'll start with you, Ianello, who's someone that you

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Speaker 3: were excited about throughout the preseason. You put some of

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Speaker 3: your own money down and you're gonna be follow and

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Speaker 3: you know, beginning to end, I'll.

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Speaker 2: Give you to here. I took two overs that I

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Speaker 2: really like.

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Speaker 1: One is.

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Speaker 4: I love this East Carolina team. I'm all aboard the

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Speaker 4: Pirate ship. Holand Aylors is awesome. He's back for his

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Speaker 4: fourth year. I think he's done fifty one touchdowns in

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Speaker 4: his career Carolina.

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Speaker 2: He's really good. They bring back all five offensive line starters.

378
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Speaker 4: They bring back really solid receivers, Ragie Harris, who was

379
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Speaker 4: AC Rookie the year last year at running back. You know,

380
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Speaker 4: they are more of a running team. They ran a

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Speaker 4: little really well last year behind that offensive line. But

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Speaker 4: you know, Holan Naylor as like I said, I really

383
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Speaker 4: like him as a as a quarterback. They bring back

384
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Speaker 4: receiving talent and kind of similar to Fresno State. Their

385
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Speaker 4: defense was iffy at times, but they returned fourteen to

386
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Speaker 4: their top fifteen tacklers, and they got progressively better as

387
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Speaker 4: the year went on. So if they continue to take

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Speaker 4: a step in the right direction on defense, payed with

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Speaker 4: that offense. They finished the year really strong, which you

390
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Speaker 4: know is a good sign for going into this year.

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Speaker 4: Smoke Temple b SMU at the end of the year

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Speaker 4: and they played really well, and people forget, like they

393
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Speaker 4: should have beaten Tulsa. They lost by four points. Tulsa

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Speaker 4: score with thirty seconds left, and if you remember that game,

395
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Speaker 4: Tulsa's final drive, there was like three blown calls I

396
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Speaker 4: think didn't Tulsa fumble and then they rule didn't complete.

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Speaker 4: Then there was like a horrific penulty call that that

398
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Speaker 4: should have ended the game twice and East they totally

399
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Speaker 4: kept the drive going, ended up scoring to East Carolina

400
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Speaker 4: totally got screwed there. So I mean they should have

401
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Speaker 4: beat Tulsa, who was in the conference championship. Like I said,

402
00:18:11,640 --> 00:18:15,080
Speaker 4: finished with tears or two wins at the end. They

403
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Speaker 4: have a fairly uh manageable schedule. They're over Winter was

404
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Speaker 4: only five. They played Charleston, Southern Temple, South Florida, so

405
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Speaker 4: there's three wins. They play at Navy, which I think.

406
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Speaker 2: Is to win. I'm very down on Navy.

407
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Speaker 4: This year they play, they get South Carolina at home Tinker.

408
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Speaker 4: They're going to be favored in that game. South Carolina

409
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Speaker 4: is probably gonna be pretty bad. So I mean, right there,

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Speaker 4: you could get to five just if they win those

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Speaker 4: and then they really only have to win one of

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Speaker 4: Marshall Twulane Houston, who I'm down on Memphis. You know, yeah,

413
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Speaker 4: they'll probably lose app State ECF in Cincinnati, but if

414
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Speaker 4: they can get one of that Marshall twu Lane Houston Memphis,

415
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Speaker 4: maybe even two. I mean, you're clearing this by seven.

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Speaker 4: Like I said, East Carolina over five, I think they

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Speaker 4: go bowling. I think this is a really good team.

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Speaker 4: Love Alors, that quarterback bring a ton back, So I

419
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Speaker 4: love this fire team.

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Speaker 3: Just kind of a pass for me. I don't necessarily

421
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Speaker 3: have a strong feeling one way or the other, but

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Speaker 3: something does pop out to me when I look at

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Speaker 3: this schedule and the way that opens up, Because I

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Speaker 3: agree East Carolina was a pesky team last year, and

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Speaker 3: Alers has the opportunity to get hot when you look

426
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Speaker 3: at his body of work across multiple years, there's been

427
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Speaker 3: some games where he's just caught fire. And also he

428
00:19:23,520 --> 00:19:26,120
Speaker 3: gives you a little bit of that power running component.

429
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Speaker 3: He's not necessarily, you know, a jitterbug when he has

430
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Speaker 3: the ball in the open field, but he can get

431
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Speaker 3: if you're in those two three yard to gain situations,

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Speaker 3: he can put a shoulder down and make it happen.

433
00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:37,720
Speaker 3: But when I look at this schedule, opening up against

434
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:40,439
Speaker 3: app State, that's a very difficult game. South Carolina, as

435
00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:42,440
Speaker 3: you mentioned, is winnable, but if they were to lose it,

436
00:19:42,640 --> 00:19:44,399
Speaker 3: I don't think, you know, the sky's falling on them.

437
00:19:44,680 --> 00:19:46,720
Speaker 3: And then at Marshall that's a tough spot. So those

438
00:19:46,800 --> 00:19:49,800
Speaker 3: three games we're going to nail this point. You know,

439
00:19:50,040 --> 00:19:53,040
Speaker 3: moving forward on this podcast, you're going to see a

440
00:19:53,119 --> 00:19:55,040
Speaker 3: lot of group of five teams that are actually pretty

441
00:19:55,080 --> 00:19:57,840
Speaker 3: good and certainly will be profitable against the spread throughout

442
00:19:57,840 --> 00:20:02,360
Speaker 3: the year, have difficult septembers, and from just a selfish perspective,

443
00:20:02,400 --> 00:20:03,680
Speaker 3: if they were to go ahead and go zero and

444
00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,679
Speaker 3: three there but be competitive in those games, you're going

445
00:20:06,760 --> 00:20:09,080
Speaker 3: to see an overcorrection, at least in my opinion, by

446
00:20:09,119 --> 00:20:10,920
Speaker 3: the public because they're going to see that zero in

447
00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:13,320
Speaker 3: the win column when they get into Week four against

448
00:20:13,400 --> 00:20:16,160
Speaker 3: Charleston Southern, and you could end up getting a nice

449
00:20:16,200 --> 00:20:19,400
Speaker 3: discount maybe five, six seven points in a spot where

450
00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 3: they're actually a good team in disguise, and this is

451
00:20:23,960 --> 00:20:26,160
Speaker 3: like someone we're going to come back to. And it's

452
00:20:26,240 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 3: just the nature that the Beasts. A lot of these

453
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:30,240
Speaker 3: teams are playing for paychecks and going wherever the action is.

454
00:20:30,920 --> 00:20:33,440
Speaker 3: If they could have spread out these games and had

455
00:20:33,520 --> 00:20:37,360
Speaker 3: a South Florida earlier, it's a totally different mindset from

456
00:20:37,400 --> 00:20:41,040
Speaker 3: the public as opposed to playing at you know or

457
00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:44,440
Speaker 3: sorry app States in Charlotte, a neutral site game that's

458
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:46,480
Speaker 3: a really tough game. This app stte team, I think

459
00:20:46,600 --> 00:20:49,200
Speaker 3: is primed to either be the winner or maybe the

460
00:20:49,280 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 3: runner up in the Sun Belt and then South Carolina

461
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,040
Speaker 3: at least from a running game perspective, and that's something

462
00:20:55,080 --> 00:20:57,119
Speaker 3: that East Carolina really struggled with. You know, Kevin Harris

463
00:20:57,200 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 3: is going to get as many touches as he can

464
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:01,040
Speaker 3: handle on that game. So that's all feeling about East

465
00:21:01,080 --> 00:21:03,480
Speaker 3: Carolina right now, But I think it is worth mentioning

466
00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:06,960
Speaker 3: that if they can survive that early season to your

467
00:21:07,400 --> 00:21:09,520
Speaker 3: over five five and a half, you're going to get

468
00:21:09,520 --> 00:21:11,239
Speaker 3: into a spot where you're looking really good if they

469
00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:13,760
Speaker 3: can steal one or two wins there. Next up, we're

470
00:21:13,800 --> 00:21:16,359
Speaker 3: talking about a school that has been made famous by

471
00:21:16,480 --> 00:21:20,919
Speaker 3: the collection of really generational talents that all met at

472
00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:23,880
Speaker 3: Western Kentucky. You know, I'm talking about Nappy Roots.

473
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:33,639
Speaker 1: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, the Pride of the Commonwealth. Oh no, no, no.

474
00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,840
Speaker 3: No, I am all in on the Western Kentucky experience.

475
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:41,520
Speaker 3: Out of the Conference USA, they went ahead and I

476
00:21:41,560 --> 00:21:44,440
Speaker 3: think they revolutionized the game. You know, things have opened

477
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:47,439
Speaker 3: up in terms of eligibility, that transfer, portal, everything related

478
00:21:47,520 --> 00:21:50,720
Speaker 3: to player movements. But they took it a step further.

479
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:53,080
Speaker 3: Not only did they go down and just harvest the

480
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:55,840
Speaker 3: organs of Houston Baptists, they went down and got Bailey's abbey,

481
00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:59,639
Speaker 3: their quarterback, former Walter Payton Award finalists, the SCS Heisman,

482
00:22:00,600 --> 00:22:05,200
Speaker 3: Bailey Zappi. They get his two of his top three targets.

483
00:22:05,480 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 3: They go in and they also get his offensive coordinator.

484
00:22:08,800 --> 00:22:11,400
Speaker 3: So there's no learning curve, there's no issue. As soon

485
00:22:11,440 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 3: as fall camp open, the announce seems the starter, he's

486
00:22:14,119 --> 00:22:17,320
Speaker 3: the guy. This is really interesting because, as I mentioned before,

487
00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 3: there's a lot of teams that are incomplete. Western Kentucky

488
00:22:20,320 --> 00:22:22,680
Speaker 3: needed a reboot on offense, and now they have it.

489
00:22:22,840 --> 00:22:25,840
Speaker 3: And I still think that they are graded out from

490
00:22:25,880 --> 00:22:28,719
Speaker 3: a win total perspective, as though they're just bringing back

491
00:22:28,800 --> 00:22:31,159
Speaker 3: last year's offense with a hope for a slight bump up.

492
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:35,439
Speaker 3: Bailey Zapi torched North Texas last year, almost orchestrated an

493
00:22:35,520 --> 00:22:38,040
Speaker 3: upset of Texas Tech. They lose that game. I believe

494
00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:41,040
Speaker 3: thirty five thirty three. He threw fro a million yards

495
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:43,960
Speaker 3: in that game. He is not going to wilt under

496
00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:47,080
Speaker 3: the pressure of moving up from FCS to FBS. And

497
00:22:47,160 --> 00:22:49,200
Speaker 3: when you look at their schedule, I think it's very

498
00:22:49,320 --> 00:22:52,439
Speaker 3: reasonable to be able to navigate it in conference. They

499
00:22:52,520 --> 00:22:54,800
Speaker 3: do have some challenges in the non conference, but this

500
00:22:54,880 --> 00:22:56,879
Speaker 3: is a team I'm super excited about. I think you

501
00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,520
Speaker 3: would point out accurately I am not the only one

502
00:22:59,680 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 3: talking about Bailey Zappi. This is a team that maybe

503
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:04,359
Speaker 3: is getting so much love. They no longer can carry

504
00:23:04,440 --> 00:23:07,439
Speaker 3: that moniker of sleeper, but as long as you can

505
00:23:07,520 --> 00:23:09,720
Speaker 3: find it, you know, out in the market. At a

506
00:23:09,840 --> 00:23:11,639
Speaker 3: ten to one to when convererce USA, I think it's

507
00:23:11,680 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 3: teaming with value. It's I'm gonna play both.

508
00:23:13,640 --> 00:23:16,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, like you said, that's Ozzie. The only reason I'm

509
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 4: off it. It has nothing to do with, you know,

510
00:23:18,520 --> 00:23:21,680
Speaker 4: the talent. Like you said, I love Bailey Zappi. I

511
00:23:21,800 --> 00:23:22,840
Speaker 4: love this Houston Baptist.

512
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:23,760
Speaker 2: I love what they're doing.

513
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:26,720
Speaker 4: I think it's I think it's gonna work, but everyone

514
00:23:26,840 --> 00:23:28,720
Speaker 4: is so convinced it's gonna work that I'm gonna just

515
00:23:28,760 --> 00:23:30,320
Speaker 4: gonna have to I have to say it's not gonna work,

516
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,280
Speaker 4: because if you watch, that's the beauty about G five

517
00:23:33,400 --> 00:23:35,600
Speaker 4: is what you think is gonna happen doesn't ever happen.

518
00:23:35,760 --> 00:23:39,320
Speaker 4: And you know, yeah, their returning production numbers are skewed because,

519
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,080
Speaker 4: like you said, they they're revamping the whole offense. They

520
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 4: bring back nine starters, five on offense, four run defense,

521
00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:47,919
Speaker 4: and yeah, okay, you're bringing in all the guys basically

522
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:51,760
Speaker 4: Houston Baptist starters at coming back. But like, I don't know,

523
00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,639
Speaker 4: I'm just everyone's so convinced that this offense is just

524
00:23:54,720 --> 00:23:57,199
Speaker 4: gonna step in and be what it was at Houston Baptist,

525
00:23:57,280 --> 00:23:57,639
Speaker 4: and I'm not.

526
00:23:58,760 --> 00:24:00,000
Speaker 2: I'm not fully convinced.

527
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,480
Speaker 4: It's like I think it will work, but I'm not

528
00:24:03,359 --> 00:24:07,000
Speaker 4: as sold as everyone else. And their defense was bad

529
00:24:07,119 --> 00:24:10,239
Speaker 4: last year and it brings back four stars. They had

530
00:24:10,359 --> 00:24:14,879
Speaker 4: six defensive backs. Trandsfer out his defensive bad secondary is

531
00:24:14,920 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 4: gonna get torched. And I think there'll be a fun

532
00:24:17,040 --> 00:24:19,920
Speaker 4: team to watch. I think, like you said, they'll they'll

533
00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:22,760
Speaker 4: probably beat teams they shouldn't. You look at Michigan State.

534
00:24:24,040 --> 00:24:25,880
Speaker 4: You know, I don't know that Michigan State can score

535
00:24:25,960 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 4: with them, so you know, they might get a team

536
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,159
Speaker 4: they shouldn't. But their games are going to be interesting.

537
00:24:30,400 --> 00:24:32,400
Speaker 4: They're gonna be fun over teams to bet, They're gonna

538
00:24:32,440 --> 00:24:35,879
Speaker 4: be fun. You know, the FAU Western Kentucky game is

539
00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:39,560
Speaker 4: going to be like one hundred to ninety. So I'm

540
00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,280
Speaker 4: just not as sold strictly because everyone else is seems

541
00:24:43,359 --> 00:24:45,719
Speaker 4: so sold like it. You know, it seems so obvious

542
00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:47,600
Speaker 4: that I'm like, it can't be that obvious, you know.

543
00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:48,240
Speaker 2: You know what I mean.

544
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:52,840
Speaker 3: Well, Tyson heldon. He built a really nice defense last year.

545
00:24:52,840 --> 00:24:55,800
Speaker 3: I believe they finished eighth against the pass nationally, And

546
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:58,080
Speaker 3: yes they have to fill in a lot of new

547
00:24:58,119 --> 00:25:00,959
Speaker 3: faces there, but they do get can Cay back at

548
00:25:01,000 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 3: safety and at least he can play center field and

549
00:25:03,560 --> 00:25:06,320
Speaker 3: kind of be the elder statesman there and hopefully his

550
00:25:06,480 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 3: experience can help him be the quarterback of the secondary.

551
00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,600
Speaker 3: But yeah, there's a lot of issues from a personnel standpoint.

552
00:25:12,920 --> 00:25:15,840
Speaker 3: They need D'Angelo Malone on the edge to be a monster.

553
00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:17,840
Speaker 3: He's shown in the past that you can be a

554
00:25:17,880 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 3: double digit SAT guy, but they need him to be

555
00:25:20,440 --> 00:25:23,879
Speaker 3: Conference USA Defensive Player of the Year caliber really to

556
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:26,320
Speaker 3: have a big enough impact that not only is he

557
00:25:26,480 --> 00:25:29,320
Speaker 3: helping their tackle for low stats, but also having that

558
00:25:29,440 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 3: ripple effect on a green secondary. Once again, I know

559
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:34,560
Speaker 3: I hammered a lot. I come back to the schedule

560
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,040
Speaker 3: an excellent opportunity in a scrimmage for them more or

561
00:25:38,119 --> 00:25:41,000
Speaker 3: less against Ut Martin Ghostkyhawks there in the opener on

562
00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,040
Speaker 3: September second. That's exactly what they need. They need to

563
00:25:44,080 --> 00:25:46,920
Speaker 3: come into a buzz saw right away. Unfortunately, after that,

564
00:25:47,080 --> 00:25:49,560
Speaker 3: it's three kind of brutal matchups in a row. You know,

565
00:25:49,640 --> 00:25:51,920
Speaker 3: you got to go to West Point where the wind

566
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:53,840
Speaker 3: could be blowing in off the Hudson, and you have

567
00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:56,000
Speaker 3: some issues in the passing game, and certainly Army can

568
00:25:56,040 --> 00:25:57,840
Speaker 3: go on those seven eight minute drives and take the

569
00:25:57,880 --> 00:26:01,160
Speaker 3: ball away from you. Then Indiana and at Michigan State.

570
00:26:01,520 --> 00:26:04,280
Speaker 3: Those are some really tough games to round out their

571
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:08,240
Speaker 3: first four. But once again, I'm going to view the

572
00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:10,520
Speaker 3: first game of the season as kind of that warm up.

573
00:26:10,720 --> 00:26:13,000
Speaker 3: I'll probably play them in that army spot if it's

574
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:15,480
Speaker 3: at the right number, But if they get smacked around

575
00:26:15,480 --> 00:26:17,920
Speaker 3: by Indiana or Michigan State, I could care less. From

576
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 3: a weekly betting perspective, and even from the win total,

577
00:26:20,520 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 3: I'm not viewing them as really having an opportunity to

578
00:26:23,040 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 3: win either of those two games. If they equit themselves

579
00:26:25,359 --> 00:26:27,280
Speaker 3: well and they don't get blown out, that's a nice bonus.

580
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:29,840
Speaker 3: But after that they fly into the schedule. They start

581
00:26:29,880 --> 00:26:32,919
Speaker 3: with UTSA at home, then they're at Old Dominion FIU.

582
00:26:33,240 --> 00:26:35,840
Speaker 3: There's an opportunity if they can stay healthy and just

583
00:26:35,960 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 3: really learn about themselves and how they want to play defense.

584
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:41,760
Speaker 3: I think there's a great opportunity for them to fly

585
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,280
Speaker 3: past this number five five and a half spending, where

586
00:26:44,280 --> 00:26:47,800
Speaker 3: you get in the market and ten to one we're

587
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,240
Speaker 3: on the same page. Anything can happen in this conference.

588
00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:52,119
Speaker 3: I think that there's a lot of teams last year

589
00:26:52,200 --> 00:26:54,080
Speaker 3: that gave us a smoke screen, either in the positive

590
00:26:54,160 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 3: or negative sense, because of COVID. There was just so

591
00:26:56,880 --> 00:27:00,239
Speaker 3: many issues and motivation and players transferring out. I think

592
00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 3: there's a lot of false narratives that are getting bandied

593
00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:05,560
Speaker 3: about what I know through my own eyes. I watched

594
00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:08,600
Speaker 3: Houston Baptist play offense. They were fantastic last year. And

595
00:27:08,680 --> 00:27:10,920
Speaker 3: it wasn't some weird gadget offense where they were throwing

596
00:27:11,320 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 3: you know, twenty five bubble screens or you know, doing

597
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,200
Speaker 3: some kind of a weird pistol or anything like that.

598
00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,760
Speaker 3: They were just sending him back in the pocket and

599
00:27:18,880 --> 00:27:21,560
Speaker 3: he was dealing with pressure, and he was making strikes

600
00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 3: all over the field. And his receivers, the Stearns brothers,

601
00:27:25,160 --> 00:27:27,480
Speaker 3: everyone that they're bringing in. I think he's got to

602
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:29,720
Speaker 3: give him more and more confidence. So I'm all in

603
00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:32,679
Speaker 3: on Hilltoppers this year. And I'm sure that's one way

604
00:27:32,760 --> 00:27:35,399
Speaker 3: or the other will be either having me gloat or

605
00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:37,520
Speaker 3: you rub it in, you know, my face down the stretch.

606
00:27:38,160 --> 00:27:41,880
Speaker 3: All right, let's make a quick transition here to week zero.

607
00:27:42,000 --> 00:27:43,840
Speaker 3: Unless you have some more group of five plays that

608
00:27:43,880 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 3: you'd like to regale our listeners with.

609
00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:47,960
Speaker 2: There's just one more I'll throw in, y'all. I'll try

610
00:27:48,000 --> 00:27:50,000
Speaker 2: to keep it a little quick. I have to go

611
00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,560
Speaker 2: to the MAC. The Mac's my favorite conference. Absolutely love

612
00:27:52,640 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 2: the MAC. I love, I love match.

613
00:27:56,320 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 4: Caleb Albee might be the most underrated player in college football,

614
00:28:00,760 --> 00:28:03,760
Speaker 4: if not quarterback. Only Mac Jones and Zach Wilson finished

615
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:05,879
Speaker 4: with a better quarterback rating than LB did last year.

616
00:28:05,880 --> 00:28:08,320
Speaker 4: He was tied with Mac for yards per attempt. Yeah,

617
00:28:08,359 --> 00:28:10,359
Speaker 4: a lot of that was to Dwayne Eskridge, who's no

618
00:28:10,440 --> 00:28:13,600
Speaker 4: longer there. He was a little electric factory. But they

619
00:28:13,680 --> 00:28:16,239
Speaker 4: bring back sky Moore, they bring back Jalen Hall. There

620
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 4: are other two receivers. A super underrated move I love

621
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 4: is the transfer of Bryce Nunley from Chattanooga. If you

622
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 4: watch Chattanooga, he was their entire team. He had, you know,

623
00:28:26,200 --> 00:28:29,040
Speaker 4: twenty four hundred yards in twelve touchdowns in the last

624
00:28:29,119 --> 00:28:32,359
Speaker 4: two years. He fills in as another weapon. Now they

625
00:28:32,400 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 4: have three really good ones. They have three really good

626
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:37,760
Speaker 4: running backs that they kind of all used. You know,

627
00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:40,240
Speaker 4: Jefferson can cage, Sean Tyler, that they use all three

628
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 4: of them. I think having them.

629
00:28:41,360 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 2: All back is huge.

630
00:28:42,640 --> 00:28:45,320
Speaker 4: They get great pressure on defense, which is something I

631
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,920
Speaker 4: love in the MAC. Creating that havoc that's huge in

632
00:28:48,000 --> 00:28:50,320
Speaker 4: this conference. They're fifth in the Nation attackles for a

633
00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:53,600
Speaker 4: lost yess last year. There one question is the secondary.

634
00:28:53,720 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 4: But Bryce and Gardner was first team All Mack att safety.

635
00:28:56,360 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 4: He's an awesome player, he kind of runs that defense.

636
00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:00,880
Speaker 4: To having Gardner back there always kind of gives me

637
00:29:00,960 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 4: a little bit of confidence. And they're another team with

638
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,760
Speaker 4: a very manageable schedule. I would say they basically have

639
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,880
Speaker 4: four guaranteed wins with Akron, Illinois State, Northern Illinois, Eastern Michigan.

640
00:29:10,920 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 4: So there's your four right there, and then to get

641
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:17,240
Speaker 4: to six, they play San Jose State, Kent State, Central Michigan,

642
00:29:17,320 --> 00:29:19,880
Speaker 4: and Ball State all at home. They do have to

643
00:29:19,920 --> 00:29:21,520
Speaker 4: go to Toledo and Buffalo. I mean, we don't know

644
00:29:21,560 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 4: if Buffalo will be this year, but okay, you want

645
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,240
Speaker 4: to give those two losses, those four hon games, and

646
00:29:26,320 --> 00:29:29,040
Speaker 4: then as far as you know Power five games, I'm

647
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 4: not saying they're going to win these games.

648
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:31,280
Speaker 2: They probably won't.

649
00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,400
Speaker 4: But when you think of Power five teams that are

650
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,120
Speaker 4: likely to lose a game, they have no business losing,

651
00:29:36,640 --> 00:29:38,440
Speaker 4: Pitt in Michigan are at the top of that list.

652
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,640
Speaker 4: So those are their two non cons is Pitt and Michigan. Again,

653
00:29:41,920 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 4: I'm going to give them losses there, but would it

654
00:29:44,040 --> 00:29:46,560
Speaker 4: be that surprising if Pitt and Michigan blew a game

655
00:29:46,600 --> 00:29:49,000
Speaker 4: that they shouldn't. So, you know, I love, like I said,

656
00:29:49,120 --> 00:29:51,600
Speaker 4: I love, LB's one of my opinion, the most underrated

657
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 4: players in all of college football. Give me Western Michigan

658
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 4: over six all day.

659
00:29:56,000 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 3: And an additional note on them, you know, tim Lester

660
00:29:58,680 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 3: squad finished I want to say ninety seventh in turnover

661
00:30:01,520 --> 00:30:06,240
Speaker 3: margin last season, and generally speaking, you know, year over year,

662
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:08,400
Speaker 3: you see a little bit of the luck start to

663
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:10,880
Speaker 3: go in their favor. They won their first four games,

664
00:30:10,920 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 3: and they were right in it with Eastern Michigan in

665
00:30:12,680 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 3: a shootout, and they lost by three against ball State.

666
00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 3: If one turnover in particularly the ball State game, goes

667
00:30:19,000 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 3: in their favor, maybe they end up at five to one,

668
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,560
Speaker 3: and we're thinking of them differently. So I agree, there's

669
00:30:24,600 --> 00:30:28,320
Speaker 3: so much to like about them, and I think I'll

670
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:30,120
Speaker 3: say right now, I'm gonna sprinkle a little bit on

671
00:30:30,240 --> 00:30:32,520
Speaker 3: that money line. You may have convinced speak you know,

672
00:30:32,600 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 3: at the Big House. Michigan has a lot of questions,

673
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:39,040
Speaker 3: and they certainly have an identity issue offensively, and also

674
00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:41,440
Speaker 3: just the overall momentum of the program. It's just all

675
00:30:41,440 --> 00:30:44,040
Speaker 3: about being priced correctly. I'm obviously going to wait until

676
00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 3: game day see what win bet is putting out there,

677
00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:48,400
Speaker 3: But if this is north of four to one and

678
00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,360
Speaker 3: an opportunity like that, I'm going to go ahead and

679
00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:54,360
Speaker 3: take the Broncos because, honestly, college football in general, I

680
00:30:54,400 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 3: think is headed for a more chaotic season with so

681
00:30:57,640 --> 00:30:59,720
Speaker 3: many teams, not just the top teams, but so many

682
00:30:59,760 --> 00:31:03,320
Speaker 3: teams returning so much production and steady quarterback play as

683
00:31:03,400 --> 00:31:05,520
Speaker 3: Western Michigan is, I just think there's gonna be a

684
00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:07,520
Speaker 3: lot of tough out So this is a year to

685
00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 3: really dig into those underdogs, seeing the value and want

686
00:31:10,800 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 3: to pull the trigger on money lines.

687
00:31:12,480 --> 00:31:14,520
Speaker 4: You want to take a money line Michigan, I'll take

688
00:31:14,560 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 4: a money line at Pitt. I mean, anyone who watches

689
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 4: patent Ard Doozy games, what does Pitt do? They win

690
00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 4: as underdogs on the road and they lose as favorites

691
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:24,200
Speaker 4: at home.

692
00:31:24,760 --> 00:31:26,560
Speaker 2: Watch out for pat Nardoozy.

693
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:31,280
Speaker 4: So going into Hinz Field with as likely a you know,

694
00:31:31,520 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 4: sizable favorite, that's a Nardoozy lost all day long. So

695
00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:38,120
Speaker 4: I'll sprinkle Western Michigan at Pitt. You could take them

696
00:31:38,160 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 4: at Michigan hopefully went involved.

697
00:31:39,840 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 3: All right, you have to tell me this honestly, though,

698
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,960
Speaker 3: if Kenny Pickett was wearing a Bowling Green jersey or

699
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 3: a Kent State you know, golden flashes with the alternate

700
00:31:47,880 --> 00:31:50,440
Speaker 3: with the San Diego Chargers lightning bolt, are you telling

701
00:31:50,480 --> 00:31:52,800
Speaker 3: me you wouldn't think that he was just a great quarterback?

702
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:56,320
Speaker 3: Isn't it just the fact that he's this mediocre power

703
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 3: five guy who's been around since the second Bush administration

704
00:31:59,320 --> 00:32:02,719
Speaker 3: as quarterback, Like, isn't that what's coloring your opinion on Pit?

705
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 2: He's just he's every pit quarterback. He's Nathan Peterman, He's

706
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:10,800
Speaker 2: Ben Denucci, He's you know, Pit Pitt. Just No, Kenny

707
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:11,400
Speaker 2: Pickett stinks.

708
00:32:11,640 --> 00:32:14,120
Speaker 4: He's like betterf I mean, granted, it seems like his

709
00:32:14,280 --> 00:32:16,600
Speaker 4: ninth year, so I'm sure he'll be a little better.

710
00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,640
Speaker 4: But Kenny Pickett should be in the Mac to be honest,

711
00:32:19,680 --> 00:32:22,840
Speaker 4: he would be a above average Mac quarterback. I will

712
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:26,760
Speaker 4: concede that Caleb Ellobie is a better quarterback than Gay Pickett,

713
00:32:26,880 --> 00:32:28,480
Speaker 4: And I think would you agree.

714
00:32:28,320 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 3: That can considerably when you got like his air yard numbers,

715
00:32:32,760 --> 00:32:34,520
Speaker 3: Like he wasn't a din and dunk guy. He was

716
00:32:34,600 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 3: pushing the ball down with field. He was incredibly exciting

717
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:40,240
Speaker 3: to watch. It wasn't just a statistical monster racking up

718
00:32:40,320 --> 00:32:42,600
Speaker 3: stats against bad teams like he was doing it in

719
00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:45,520
Speaker 3: an exciting fashion. So I agree. I was actually surprised

720
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 3: that he didn't get poached, you know, in a year

721
00:32:47,160 --> 00:32:49,160
Speaker 3: where there was free movement, I think it was it

722
00:32:49,240 --> 00:32:50,720
Speaker 3: was great for Lester and his staff to be able

723
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:53,120
Speaker 3: to hold on to him, particularly losing Escridge, who you

724
00:32:53,160 --> 00:32:55,320
Speaker 3: can make the argument from a recruiting standpoint. I know

725
00:32:55,400 --> 00:32:57,400
Speaker 3: they're not allowed to say this, but like, hey, why

726
00:32:57,400 --> 00:32:58,920
Speaker 3: don't you come over to our program? You just lost

727
00:32:58,960 --> 00:33:00,960
Speaker 3: your best receiver. You want to continue to look good.

728
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:02,840
Speaker 3: Maybe it was floated to him and he just said,

729
00:33:03,120 --> 00:33:05,640
Speaker 3: you know, maction or busts. So more power to him

730
00:33:05,960 --> 00:33:06,560
Speaker 3: for staying there.

731
00:33:07,120 --> 00:33:07,600
Speaker 2: Boy Kale.

732
00:33:07,800 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 3: All right, let's get into week zero. In the last

733
00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:12,320
Speaker 3: couple of minutes here of the podcast, as I mentioned,

734
00:33:12,440 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 3: it's it's a menu that has a few interesting matchups.

735
00:33:15,760 --> 00:33:18,400
Speaker 3: It certainly has some group of five flavor. Let's let's

736
00:33:18,400 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 3: start with your boys. Let's start with Yukon up against

737
00:33:20,880 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 3: Presno State. It's a four touchdown spread sixty two and

738
00:33:24,880 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 3: a half as the total. I'm not going to get

739
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 3: too deep in the weeds on this. I like over

740
00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:31,480
Speaker 3: sixty two and a half. I think Fresno has an

741
00:33:31,520 --> 00:33:34,320
Speaker 3: opportunity to lay, you know, a fifty burger on Yukon.

742
00:33:34,760 --> 00:33:36,960
Speaker 3: And for all of Yukon's issues, they're probably going to

743
00:33:37,000 --> 00:33:40,480
Speaker 3: play musical chairs at quarterback. Mensa is a running back

744
00:33:40,520 --> 00:33:43,520
Speaker 3: who has over two thousand yards of career rushing, so

745
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:45,840
Speaker 3: at least they know they can rely on him in

746
00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:48,000
Speaker 3: game one. You don't have to worry about, you know,

747
00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:50,840
Speaker 3: depth issues or injuries. They're going to run the ball.

748
00:33:51,200 --> 00:33:53,280
Speaker 3: Fresno State, I think will at least give them the

749
00:33:53,360 --> 00:33:56,040
Speaker 3: opportunity to do so. And if you can get to

750
00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,320
Speaker 3: seventeen points, I feel like this is going to blow

751
00:33:58,400 --> 00:33:59,560
Speaker 3: by the sixty two and a half. What do you

752
00:33:59,560 --> 00:33:59,840
Speaker 3: think of that?

753
00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:01,760
Speaker 2: Like you said, I'm not gonna get too much in

754
00:34:01,800 --> 00:34:02,960
Speaker 2: the weed's very talking about how much.

755
00:34:02,880 --> 00:34:05,200
Speaker 4: I love Fresno States. So you know the over, I

756
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,480
Speaker 4: think they probably cover the spread. Although Yukon is the

757
00:34:07,520 --> 00:34:10,719
Speaker 4: defending national champions. After all, we can't talk about Yukon

758
00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:12,640
Speaker 4: without me bringing this up. For those of you who

759
00:34:12,680 --> 00:34:15,400
Speaker 4: I tease this to caligaries earlier, for those of you

760
00:34:15,480 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 4: that aren't as in the Weeds or up to date

761
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:18,839
Speaker 4: with the Yukon football program as I am.

762
00:34:18,880 --> 00:34:21,239
Speaker 2: I am from Connecticut who grew up liking Yukon.

763
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:22,160
Speaker 3: More of the basketball team.

764
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:25,640
Speaker 4: But Randy Etzel has the best contract in all of sports.

765
00:34:26,520 --> 00:34:29,400
Speaker 4: You said you're not aware of his contract what it entails.

766
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:34,279
Speaker 4: He has bonus set up for like the randommest things.

767
00:34:34,280 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 2: Here's the thing.

768
00:34:34,880 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 4: I pulled it up so I can read him to you.

769
00:34:36,200 --> 00:34:39,080
Speaker 4: Here's an example. Randy eds will get to two thousand

770
00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:44,480
Speaker 4: dollars bonus. Every game that Yukon scores first in he

771
00:34:44,560 --> 00:34:47,279
Speaker 4: gets two K. If they're leading at halftime, he gets

772
00:34:47,320 --> 00:34:49,680
Speaker 4: two K if they're if they lead the game in

773
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:52,160
Speaker 4: points per possession, if they lead the game into all

774
00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:56,320
Speaker 4: offense defensively, if his team leads the game in sacks,

775
00:34:56,560 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 4: turnover margin, points per possession, or tackles for a lot

776
00:35:00,000 --> 00:35:04,040
Speaker 4: boss margin, he gets two K each. So if Fresno

777
00:35:04,160 --> 00:35:08,360
Speaker 4: State wins by one hundred but Yukon has more sacks,

778
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,960
Speaker 4: that's a nice two K and Randy Etzel's pocket at

779
00:35:11,000 --> 00:35:13,480
Speaker 4: the end of the game. You know Randy Etzel's dialing

780
00:35:13,600 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 4: up that blitz. He knows what that turnover margin is

781
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,000
Speaker 4: going to be late. He knows that tackle for loss margin.

782
00:35:18,080 --> 00:35:20,080
Speaker 4: Don't be surprised if Yukon's blitz in late in the

783
00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 4: fourth quarter when they need to swing that tackle for

784
00:35:22,080 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 4: lost margin.

785
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:24,440
Speaker 2: That's something to keep an eye on with the Suskies,

786
00:35:26,320 --> 00:35:26,640
Speaker 2: all right.

787
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:28,640
Speaker 3: Now, a quick word from our friends at win Bet,

788
00:35:28,760 --> 00:35:30,840
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789
00:35:31,200 --> 00:35:33,680
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790
00:35:33,840 --> 00:35:36,840
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791
00:35:36,880 --> 00:35:39,640
Speaker 3: more can make their first bet risk free up to

792
00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:42,760
Speaker 3: five hundred dollars, and for new accounts in Colorado and Michigan,

793
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,520
Speaker 3: that risk free bet is now up to one thousand dollars.

794
00:35:45,719 --> 00:35:49,280
Speaker 3: We're talking one thousand dollars. That's probably more than Milo's

795
00:35:49,400 --> 00:35:52,040
Speaker 3: Iced Tea is paying bow Knicks. So again, all you

796
00:35:52,120 --> 00:35:53,720
Speaker 3: have to do is open a new win Bet account

797
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:56,000
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798
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,640
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799
00:35:58,680 --> 00:36:01,560
Speaker 3: to one thousand dollars in all states. To get started,

800
00:36:01,640 --> 00:36:04,400
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801
00:36:04,719 --> 00:36:06,759
Speaker 3: Must be twenty one or older to gamble, know when

802
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,160
Speaker 3: to stop before you start gambling problem called one eight

803
00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:12,200
Speaker 3: hundred gambler. All right, Moving on from the team that

804
00:36:12,320 --> 00:36:15,799
Speaker 3: we all wanted to talk about, which was Yukon Hawaii UCLA.

805
00:36:16,000 --> 00:36:18,640
Speaker 3: This is another total that I had circled. You can

806
00:36:18,680 --> 00:36:21,440
Speaker 3: find it when Betts you know, in that sixty eight

807
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:24,719
Speaker 3: point range, depending on when you're listening. I like under here.

808
00:36:25,840 --> 00:36:28,560
Speaker 3: You know, Todd Graham is a defensive coach. He runs

809
00:36:28,800 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 3: the play calling, you know, as a head coach on

810
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:32,799
Speaker 3: the defensive side of the ball. They have a ton

811
00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:36,360
Speaker 3: returning from a team that struggled to be honest defensively

812
00:36:36,440 --> 00:36:39,000
Speaker 3: last year, but they return a lot in their front seven.

813
00:36:39,160 --> 00:36:42,239
Speaker 3: One of their top targets defensive tackle, I should say

814
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:44,960
Speaker 3: defensive end. O. T. Baker was, you know, really their

815
00:36:45,040 --> 00:36:47,239
Speaker 3: number one player on the recruiting board. They bring him

816
00:36:47,280 --> 00:36:49,759
Speaker 3: in for depth. I think they have an opportunity to

817
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 3: both their next a little bit and hold UCLA down

818
00:36:52,760 --> 00:36:54,520
Speaker 3: and force them to beat them through the air.

819
00:36:54,520 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 2: And here's the thing.

820
00:36:55,400 --> 00:36:58,040
Speaker 3: Dorian Thompson Robinson is a player who can get just

821
00:36:58,080 --> 00:37:01,759
Speaker 3: about any fan excited because he can extend plays. He

822
00:37:01,800 --> 00:37:04,440
Speaker 3: can make huge plays with his legs. He's kind of

823
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,040
Speaker 3: like a streaky three point shooter. When he starts hidden passes,

824
00:37:07,280 --> 00:37:09,879
Speaker 3: the offense really goes, but his whole career he turns

825
00:37:09,880 --> 00:37:12,279
Speaker 3: the ball over. And I think in a game like this,

826
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:15,279
Speaker 3: given what Hawaii has coming back on offense, I think

827
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,080
Speaker 3: they are going to use Calvin Turner as a Swiss

828
00:37:17,160 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 3: Army knife. They're going to get involved in the running

829
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 3: game that swing passes and everything else. But Todd Graham

830
00:37:22,280 --> 00:37:25,080
Speaker 3: has to know that they can't beat UCLA in a

831
00:37:25,120 --> 00:37:27,800
Speaker 3: shootout in this game, particularly on the mainland. And I

832
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:29,480
Speaker 3: bring up the mainland because when they play in the

833
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,840
Speaker 3: lower forty eight, Hawaii has been an under better's dream.

834
00:37:33,400 --> 00:37:36,560
Speaker 3: They're over seventy percent in their last ten, so I

835
00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 3: think this is an opportunity here to go under a

836
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,640
Speaker 3: number and listen. I think there's always a little bit

837
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:44,080
Speaker 3: of total inflation when you get into week zero in

838
00:37:44,120 --> 00:37:48,239
Speaker 3: week one, because people have not maintains their sanity through

839
00:37:48,280 --> 00:37:50,279
Speaker 3: the gambling winner just to race up to the betting

840
00:37:50,360 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 3: window or fire up their app and say I can't

841
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:54,719
Speaker 3: wait to bet an under. But this is one of

842
00:37:54,800 --> 00:37:57,759
Speaker 3: those games for me. I think UCLA will pretty much

843
00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:00,640
Speaker 3: dominate the Lion of scrimmage. When they're on defense, and

844
00:38:00,680 --> 00:38:02,680
Speaker 3: make it very difficult for why to move the football

845
00:38:03,000 --> 00:38:05,879
Speaker 3: and consequently make it difficult to surpass that sixty eight.

846
00:38:07,360 --> 00:38:10,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I really don't like the week zero board, the

847
00:38:10,440 --> 00:38:12,799
Speaker 4: one bet I played Ucla Hawaii under.

848
00:38:12,920 --> 00:38:13,719
Speaker 2: I love this under.

849
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:16,520
Speaker 4: For something you said, I think for a casual gambler,

850
00:38:16,680 --> 00:38:19,919
Speaker 4: a casual college football fan, you see Hawaii Ucla, it's

851
00:38:20,360 --> 00:38:23,800
Speaker 4: over city. This is not the Hawaii team you're used to.

852
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:27,080
Speaker 4: You know, they're you know, Colt Brennan rip one of

853
00:38:27,120 --> 00:38:29,760
Speaker 4: the most speaking of you know, G five quarterbacks or players,

854
00:38:29,880 --> 00:38:33,120
Speaker 4: Colt Brennan was, He's up there on the Mount rushmore

855
00:38:33,280 --> 00:38:35,840
Speaker 4: of G five players, of college football players in general.

856
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:38,759
Speaker 4: But it's a totally different team. Todd Graham totally changed

857
00:38:38,800 --> 00:38:40,920
Speaker 4: the offense last year. You know they were They were

858
00:38:41,040 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 4: ninety first in offensive success rate last year, one hundred

859
00:38:44,200 --> 00:38:45,879
Speaker 4: and first in passing success rate.

860
00:38:46,680 --> 00:38:50,200
Speaker 2: They're not that you know, air it out, long ball, running.

861
00:38:49,960 --> 00:38:52,720
Speaker 4: Shoot team anymore. They're a dink and dunk kind of offense.

862
00:38:52,719 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 4: They were ninety third in the country in yards per tentph.

863
00:38:56,360 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 4: And to your point, you said it, they lean on

864
00:38:58,040 --> 00:38:59,759
Speaker 4: their running back. Their running back was their leading a

865
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 4: receips last year. They're more of that, you know, just

866
00:39:02,280 --> 00:39:04,640
Speaker 4: dink and dunk, run the ball kind of team. So

867
00:39:05,040 --> 00:39:07,120
Speaker 4: I'm not a fan of the Sawaii offense. I don't

868
00:39:07,200 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 4: like Chevin Cordero really at all.

869
00:39:09,640 --> 00:39:12,320
Speaker 2: And then on the Ucla side, yeah, I agree with you.

870
00:39:12,440 --> 00:39:14,520
Speaker 4: I love dtr I think he's gonna have a monster year,

871
00:39:14,640 --> 00:39:18,000
Speaker 4: but he starts slow. This is his fourth season as

872
00:39:18,080 --> 00:39:21,000
Speaker 4: the starter. He's completed just forty seven percent of his

873
00:39:21,120 --> 00:39:24,160
Speaker 4: passes in his previous three season openers. He takes a

874
00:39:24,200 --> 00:39:28,319
Speaker 4: little while to get going. And UCLA plays LSU next week,

875
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:31,200
Speaker 4: so this is a big time who cares game for them.

876
00:39:31,560 --> 00:39:34,400
Speaker 4: I think they'll win. I'm not really worried about them losing.

877
00:39:35,200 --> 00:39:37,920
Speaker 4: But chip Kelly has proven he doesn't really take non

878
00:39:38,000 --> 00:39:40,960
Speaker 4: cons that seriously. Unders are four and two in his

879
00:39:41,120 --> 00:39:44,560
Speaker 4: non cons at UCLA. They're averaging just fifteen points per game.

880
00:39:45,239 --> 00:39:47,640
Speaker 4: He's He's only scored one in seventeen points in a

881
00:39:47,719 --> 00:39:52,440
Speaker 4: non con at UCLA once straight Ucla is zero to

882
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:55,240
Speaker 4: six straight up in the non con and chip Kelly's

883
00:39:55,280 --> 00:39:59,279
Speaker 4: time at UCLA, they're won five ats, and even before

884
00:39:59,440 --> 00:40:02,200
Speaker 4: Ucla at he was six and twelve against the spread

885
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:02,840
Speaker 4: in his career.

886
00:40:03,840 --> 00:40:04,800
Speaker 2: In non con games.

887
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:07,759
Speaker 4: So again I don't think they lose. But to me,

888
00:40:07,840 --> 00:40:10,799
Speaker 4: the under is the perfect hedge because if UCLA goes

889
00:40:10,840 --> 00:40:14,520
Speaker 4: out and smokes Hawaii, I think they stopped trying halfway

890
00:40:14,560 --> 00:40:17,040
Speaker 4: through because they have LSU coming up. Jim Kelly doesn't

891
00:40:17,040 --> 00:40:18,600
Speaker 4: really care about these games, so they're not going to

892
00:40:18,680 --> 00:40:21,120
Speaker 4: run it up. And then if Hawaii is gonna keep

893
00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 4: it close, like you said, they're gonna have to you know,

894
00:40:23,280 --> 00:40:27,560
Speaker 4: muck it up, run the ball, control the clock. They're

895
00:40:27,640 --> 00:40:29,160
Speaker 4: not going to have a shootout with them and win.

896
00:40:29,360 --> 00:40:33,360
Speaker 4: So I think realistically, whether you SLA or Hawaii covers,

897
00:40:33,719 --> 00:40:35,919
Speaker 4: to me, the under is kind of the safe hedge

898
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:39,040
Speaker 4: for either. So I love the under here. That's that's

899
00:40:39,080 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 4: pretty much the only thing I like in this week.

900
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:42,520
Speaker 4: So I'm glad you're on it too, because that was

901
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:44,000
Speaker 4: the really one that jumped out of me immediately.

902
00:40:45,000 --> 00:40:46,879
Speaker 3: The last two points I had, as I mentioned over

903
00:40:46,920 --> 00:40:50,279
Speaker 3: my shoulder here, the UTEP helmets three and five last year,

904
00:40:50,440 --> 00:40:53,399
Speaker 3: they seem to have an offensive identity returning and running back. Also,

905
00:40:53,600 --> 00:40:56,200
Speaker 3: they were able to keep a local high school kid who's,

906
00:40:56,320 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 3: you know, probably their best offensive player. There's actually a

907
00:41:00,719 --> 00:41:03,360
Speaker 3: decent amount to like about the team out of Lpasso.

908
00:41:03,800 --> 00:41:06,120
Speaker 3: But for me, it's all about fading New Mexico State.

909
00:41:06,160 --> 00:41:08,400
Speaker 3: So the nine and a half ten, depending where it

910
00:41:08,560 --> 00:41:10,920
Speaker 3: lands on game day. More so for me, I'm interested

911
00:41:10,960 --> 00:41:13,360
Speaker 3: in the minus four hundred on the money line and

912
00:41:13,480 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 3: tacking that onto every other play. But when I look

913
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 3: at the bottom of the board, the last game of

914
00:41:17,600 --> 00:41:21,160
Speaker 3: the night, Southern Utah San Jose State, this one really

915
00:41:21,239 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 3: confused me when I saw the number. It's writ in

916
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:26,040
Speaker 3: that three touchdown range. It's at twenty two at win

917
00:41:26,160 --> 00:41:29,040
Speaker 3: bet right now, an opportunity to play a San Jose

918
00:41:29,160 --> 00:41:32,640
Speaker 3: State team that was electric last year, returns their entire defense,

919
00:41:32,680 --> 00:41:35,360
Speaker 3: starting quarterback against the Southern Utah team. Let me just

920
00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:39,239
Speaker 3: crack open the Lindy's preview magazine here, Big Sky Conference, Ah.

921
00:41:39,239 --> 00:41:42,400
Speaker 3: Are they a top team all the way at the

922
00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:46,520
Speaker 3: bottom thirteenth out of thirteen teams the Thunderbirds and they're

923
00:41:46,600 --> 00:41:49,440
Speaker 3: only getting twenty two points? Am I missing anything here?

924
00:41:49,520 --> 00:41:52,120
Speaker 3: Is this just a classic look ahead opportunity? Because Santose

925
00:41:52,200 --> 00:41:55,319
Speaker 3: State plays USC in what will be essentially their super Bowl,

926
00:41:55,400 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: one of the biggest non conference games in school history.

927
00:41:57,760 --> 00:42:01,720
Speaker 3: And even so, is there any chance that Southern Utah

928
00:42:01,840 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 3: keeps this within three scores.

929
00:42:04,120 --> 00:42:06,759
Speaker 2: No, I mean, just no. I honestly I didn't know

930
00:42:06,800 --> 00:42:08,360
Speaker 2: that their team nickname was the Thunderbirds.

931
00:42:08,440 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 4: I actually love that. No, there's no chance. I think

932
00:42:12,480 --> 00:42:14,440
Speaker 4: San Jose State is such a veteran team. They bring

933
00:42:14,560 --> 00:42:17,200
Speaker 4: so much back. You know, Starkle, could you know he

934
00:42:17,239 --> 00:42:18,439
Speaker 4: can cover the spread in his sleep?

935
00:42:18,520 --> 00:42:19,399
Speaker 2: I think I don't.

936
00:42:19,600 --> 00:42:22,920
Speaker 4: I mean, they may be I probably more the half

937
00:42:23,040 --> 00:42:25,120
Speaker 4: the first half line maybe if you don't want to

938
00:42:25,160 --> 00:42:27,319
Speaker 4: worry about, like you said, them looking ahead and maybe

939
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,600
Speaker 4: pulling guys at the end. But I think they're such

940
00:42:29,600 --> 00:42:32,480
Speaker 4: a well coached team. There's such a veteran team. I

941
00:42:33,040 --> 00:42:35,280
Speaker 4: wouldn't worry about that at all. I think they probably

942
00:42:35,360 --> 00:42:37,520
Speaker 4: cover that easily. They're probably getting They're probably close to

943
00:42:37,560 --> 00:42:40,120
Speaker 4: covering it by the half, so that that does seem

944
00:42:40,160 --> 00:42:42,080
Speaker 4: like an oddly small line to me.

945
00:42:43,719 --> 00:42:46,000
Speaker 3: Well, Mike, we did it. We didn't come in with

946
00:42:46,080 --> 00:42:48,880
Speaker 3: too many jitters. We didn't look ahead to the next podcast.

947
00:42:49,000 --> 00:42:51,120
Speaker 3: You know, we delivered here for the audience, So I

948
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:54,520
Speaker 3: appreciate you spending the time getting this kick started. We

949
00:42:55,000 --> 00:42:56,560
Speaker 3: you know, kind of picked a little bit at the

950
00:42:56,640 --> 00:42:59,040
Speaker 3: week zero buffet, but we'll be back in ernest next

951
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:02,920
Speaker 3: week to dive in and gets into the weeds on

952
00:43:03,000 --> 00:43:05,879
Speaker 3: everything that we're playing. Put together full cards. Make sure

953
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 3: to grade out our Week zero performances as well. Mike,

954
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:12,120
Speaker 3: thank you so much so that'll do it for the

955
00:43:12,320 --> 00:43:14,239
Speaker 3: group of five Deep dive here on Big Bets on

956
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,880
Speaker 3: Campus presented by wind Bet. Be sure to rate and

957
00:43:16,920 --> 00:43:19,680
Speaker 3: review the podcast on Apple Podcasts, and we'll select reviews

958
00:43:19,719 --> 00:43:22,439
Speaker 3: to win prizes all season long. This week's winner letter

959
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:26,160
Speaker 3: review using the name Vodzilla, So Vodzilla if you're listening,

960
00:43:26,239 --> 00:43:29,680
Speaker 3: email podcasts at actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize.

961
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,839
Speaker 3: Sucking Colin Wilson will have their long awaited Week zero

962
00:43:32,920 --> 00:43:36,640
Speaker 3: college Football betting preview episode out tomorrow. To get excited

963
00:43:36,640 --> 00:43:39,840
Speaker 3: about that college football is back, Baby Ianello and I

964
00:43:40,000 --> 00:43:41,920
Speaker 3: will see next Wednesday here in the Big Bets on

965
00:43:42,080 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 3: Campus podcast and good luck this weekend.