Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news on a Friday after
Speaker 1: an historic week. It is single best idea. Too many
Speaker 1: voices to pick from today. Thank you particularly to Dartmouth College.
Speaker 1: They have Douglas Erwin with us the other day and
Speaker 1: David Blancheflow this morning. Was an honor, but so many
Speaker 1: others have Claudias sam with us in Neil Dudda on
Speaker 1: the Jobs Day, all the work the team has done,
Speaker 1: particularly to Bloomberg people at Bloomberg News in Bloomberg Intelligence
Speaker 1: weighing in on this historic moment. Let us start with
Speaker 1: Neil Dudda after the jobs report, Neil Duddy here in
Speaker 1: the state of the consumer in what was fascinating looking
Speaker 1: at the upper decile, upper quintile of American prosperity when
Speaker 1: in doubt, save.
Speaker 2: What you're gonna SAE. Basically the high end consumer, which
Speaker 2: has been the core source of support for consumer spending
Speaker 2: over the last year, they are going to jack up
Speaker 2: their savings rate as a result of this. I mean
Speaker 2: you're in a situation now where stock prices are going down. Right.
Speaker 2: The elevated level of stock prices is one reason why
Speaker 2: net worth was rising relative to income last year, which
Speaker 2: is why consumer spending was so strong, because people drew
Speaker 2: down their savings As a result, you have the opposite
Speaker 2: situation now, So what do you think is going to
Speaker 2: happen with the savings rate? It's going to go up.
Speaker 2: As a baseline, consumer spending wasn't going to be really
Speaker 2: much stronger than one and a half percent right now,
Speaker 2: because that's where real income growth has kind of been
Speaker 2: tracking net of transfers. So we've already seen quite sluggish income.
Speaker 2: So even a stable savings rate gets you that if
Speaker 2: the savings rates going up, you're going to have something
Speaker 2: weaker than that. So you can see already how it's
Speaker 2: very challenging to get to a anything better than Really
Speaker 2: the best I can come up with is like below
Speaker 2: potential growth environment.
Speaker 1: Still Neil Dudda there, he was absolutely brilliant on the
Speaker 1: labor dynamic. He made very clear that he's more interested
Speaker 1: in the revisions back one month, back two months than
Speaker 1: the actual data point today. I just noticed it's a
Speaker 1: blur here in our world headquarters where you see headlines
Speaker 1: out of all different sources of media. To see Canada
Speaker 1: lose twenty two thousand jobs today is really something we
Speaker 1: didn't talk about that live on the program, we had
Speaker 1: the pleasure of speaking with Kate Moore of City Group,
Speaker 1: She's in charge of City Group Wealth Management, and coming
Speaker 1: up with a kogent tone on the present crisis the
Speaker 1: view forward. Kate Moore of City Well, here's why.
Speaker 3: I don't want to hear them say, Paul. I don't
Speaker 3: want them to say we're pulling guidance all together because
Speaker 3: we have no visibility. I want them to at least
Speaker 3: present scenario analysis and in some ways that they may
Speaker 3: be able to buffer the challenges overcoming months and quarters.
Speaker 3: This scenario where companies coal guidance would be so sentiment negative,
Speaker 3: I think we see actually a big leg down in
Speaker 3: that scenario. And I'm going to be watching very very
Speaker 3: closely what companies talk about not just for the next
Speaker 3: three months, but for the balance of the year.
Speaker 4: You know, whatever they talk about in terms of their
Speaker 4: first three months of performance, yes, that's going to be important,
Speaker 4: but it's really going to be the earnings revisions that
Speaker 4: come out of the supporting season that are going to
Speaker 4: be critical for risk.
Speaker 1: Kate marsh City there and yesterday at the Game Forum
Speaker 1: of Quinnipiac College, sixteen hundred kids Matt Lazetti said exactly
Speaker 1: the same thing from Deutsche Bank that you just heard
Speaker 1: from Kate Moore, This idea that within an economy things
Speaker 1: can drift away. We'll have to see how that goes.
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