WEBVTT - Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Neil Dutta & Kate Moore

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news on a Friday after

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<v Speaker 1>an historic week. It is single best idea. Too many

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<v Speaker 1>voices to pick from today. Thank you particularly to Dartmouth College.

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<v Speaker 1>They have Douglas Erwin with us the other day and

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<v Speaker 1>David Blancheflow this morning. Was an honor, but so many

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<v Speaker 1>others have Claudias sam with us in Neil Dudda on

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<v Speaker 1>the Jobs Day, all the work the team has done,

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<v Speaker 1>particularly to Bloomberg people at Bloomberg News in Bloomberg Intelligence

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<v Speaker 1>weighing in on this historic moment. Let us start with

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<v Speaker 1>Neil Dudda after the jobs report, Neil Duddy here in

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<v Speaker 1>the state of the consumer in what was fascinating looking

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<v Speaker 1>at the upper decile, upper quintile of American prosperity when

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<v Speaker 1>in doubt, save.

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<v Speaker 2>What you're gonna SAE. Basically the high end consumer, which

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<v Speaker 2>has been the core source of support for consumer spending

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<v Speaker 2>over the last year, they are going to jack up

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<v Speaker 2>their savings rate as a result of this. I mean

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<v Speaker 2>you're in a situation now where stock prices are going down. Right.

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<v Speaker 2>The elevated level of stock prices is one reason why

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<v Speaker 2>net worth was rising relative to income last year, which

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<v Speaker 2>is why consumer spending was so strong, because people drew

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<v Speaker 2>down their savings As a result, you have the opposite

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<v Speaker 2>situation now, So what do you think is going to

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<v Speaker 2>happen with the savings rate? It's going to go up.

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<v Speaker 2>As a baseline, consumer spending wasn't going to be really

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<v Speaker 2>much stronger than one and a half percent right now,

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<v Speaker 2>because that's where real income growth has kind of been

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<v Speaker 2>tracking net of transfers. So we've already seen quite sluggish income.

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<v Speaker 2>So even a stable savings rate gets you that if

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<v Speaker 2>the savings rates going up, you're going to have something

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<v Speaker 2>weaker than that. So you can see already how it's

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<v Speaker 2>very challenging to get to a anything better than Really

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<v Speaker 2>the best I can come up with is like below

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<v Speaker 2>potential growth environment.

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<v Speaker 1>Still Neil Dudda there, he was absolutely brilliant on the

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<v Speaker 1>labor dynamic. He made very clear that he's more interested

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<v Speaker 1>in the revisions back one month, back two months than

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<v Speaker 1>the actual data point today. I just noticed it's a

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<v Speaker 1>blur here in our world headquarters where you see headlines

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<v Speaker 1>out of all different sources of media. To see Canada

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<v Speaker 1>lose twenty two thousand jobs today is really something we

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<v Speaker 1>didn't talk about that live on the program, we had

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<v Speaker 1>the pleasure of speaking with Kate Moore of City Group,

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<v Speaker 1>She's in charge of City Group Wealth Management, and coming

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<v Speaker 1>up with a kogent tone on the present crisis the

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<v Speaker 1>view forward. Kate Moore of City Well, here's why.

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<v Speaker 3>I don't want to hear them say, Paul. I don't

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<v Speaker 3>want them to say we're pulling guidance all together because

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<v Speaker 3>we have no visibility. I want them to at least

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<v Speaker 3>present scenario analysis and in some ways that they may

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<v Speaker 3>be able to buffer the challenges overcoming months and quarters.

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<v Speaker 3>This scenario where companies coal guidance would be so sentiment negative,

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<v Speaker 3>I think we see actually a big leg down in

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<v Speaker 3>that scenario. And I'm going to be watching very very

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<v Speaker 3>closely what companies talk about not just for the next

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<v Speaker 3>three months, but for the balance of the year.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, whatever they talk about in terms of their

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<v Speaker 4>first three months of performance, yes, that's going to be important,

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<v Speaker 4>but it's really going to be the earnings revisions that

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<v Speaker 4>come out of the supporting season that are going to

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<v Speaker 4>be critical for risk.

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<v Speaker 1>Kate marsh City there and yesterday at the Game Forum

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<v Speaker 1>of Quinnipiac College, sixteen hundred kids Matt Lazetti said exactly

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<v Speaker 1>the same thing from Deutsche Bank that you just heard

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<v Speaker 1>from Kate Moore, This idea that within an economy things

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<v Speaker 1>can drift away. We'll have to see how that goes.

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<v Speaker 1>Thank you so much for your interest this week on YouTube,

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<v Speaker 1>Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts and out on YouTube podcasts. This

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<v Speaker 1>is a single best idea seven