1 00:00:14,040 --> 00:00:16,760 Speaker 1: Welcome to What Goes Up, a weekly markets podcast with 2 00:00:16,760 --> 00:00:20,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Humble Down a higher across Asset reporter, and I'm Isabadly, 3 00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:24,200 Speaker 1: also across asset reporter, and this week on the show, 4 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:27,840 Speaker 1: almost a year into the Fed's hiking campaign, inflation remains 5 00:00:27,920 --> 00:00:30,319 Speaker 1: high and officials are talking about rates needing to go 6 00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:34,400 Speaker 1: up even more than previously anticipated. And yet stocks are 7 00:00:34,440 --> 00:00:37,880 Speaker 1: holding in, with the SMP five D rallying almost every 8 00:00:37,920 --> 00:00:41,080 Speaker 1: week so far this year. So what gives? We'll get 9 00:00:41,120 --> 00:00:43,840 Speaker 1: into it with a financial advisor who says there's no 10 00:00:44,080 --> 00:00:48,239 Speaker 1: straight line to even a four percent inflation goal. But 11 00:00:48,440 --> 00:00:51,440 Speaker 1: first I want to welcome Isabelle Lead to the podcast. 12 00:00:51,880 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: I know it's the honor of my life. Oh my gosh. 13 00:00:54,560 --> 00:00:59,400 Speaker 1: Please listeners should know that you and I are co workers, 14 00:00:59,400 --> 00:01:03,480 Speaker 1: were on the same team at Bloomberg. We're friends or seatmates? 15 00:01:03,520 --> 00:01:08,440 Speaker 1: Are we friends? Are we seatmates? We're across I guess 16 00:01:08,560 --> 00:01:10,480 Speaker 1: we sit across from each other, but yeah, we turned 17 00:01:10,480 --> 00:01:13,120 Speaker 1: around a lot and chat. They definitely planned that so 18 00:01:13,200 --> 00:01:15,240 Speaker 1: that we don't talk too much. Yeah, exactly, we're not 19 00:01:15,319 --> 00:01:17,399 Speaker 1: next to each other. But I have I haven't ask 20 00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:20,160 Speaker 1: of you for the audience, what is it I want 21 00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:23,319 Speaker 1: to ask you to tell us one big secret about you. 22 00:01:24,600 --> 00:01:30,280 Speaker 1: No pressure, one big secret. This is a lame one, 23 00:01:30,319 --> 00:01:32,959 Speaker 1: but not everyone knows. I'm vegetarian, and I'm also going 24 00:01:33,000 --> 00:01:36,360 Speaker 1: to reveal you're also a vegetarian. Everybody knows these things. 25 00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:38,119 Speaker 1: This is not a big secret. I don't talk about 26 00:01:38,200 --> 00:01:41,360 Speaker 1: my diet, but I'm a vegetarie. I hate cilantro. There, 27 00:01:41,720 --> 00:01:44,720 Speaker 1: these are not good secrets. I wanted a juicy secret 28 00:01:44,920 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 1: I wish I had. But I'm a boring person. But 29 00:01:47,480 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 1: the rain of our guest, maybe she's more exciting. Yes, 30 00:01:49,680 --> 00:01:53,760 Speaker 1: she is very exciting. Okay, So the person Vildanna was 31 00:01:53,800 --> 00:01:56,480 Speaker 1: saying is someone that we really like and admire. We 32 00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:58,360 Speaker 1: just had dinner with her, I think a couple of 33 00:01:58,360 --> 00:02:00,680 Speaker 1: months back, and we really hope to do it often 34 00:02:00,760 --> 00:02:03,480 Speaker 1: because not only she's super smart, that she's super fun. 35 00:02:03,880 --> 00:02:06,480 Speaker 1: So her name is Nicole Webb. She's senior vice president 36 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:11,960 Speaker 1: and financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement Group High Nicole, Hi there, 37 00:02:12,440 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 1: it's actually the honor of my lifetime to be here. 38 00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:22,480 Speaker 1: I'm gonna retire after this. Okay, after this podcast. That's great. Okay, Um, 39 00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:24,400 Speaker 1: before we begin, maybe you can just tell us a 40 00:02:24,480 --> 00:02:27,359 Speaker 1: bit more about yourself because not everyone had dinner with you, 41 00:02:27,480 --> 00:02:29,600 Speaker 1: and also just a bit more about the work that 42 00:02:29,639 --> 00:02:31,760 Speaker 1: you do. And we had pizza, by the way, and 43 00:02:31,800 --> 00:02:34,359 Speaker 1: we did and it was vegetarian pizza. There was no toppings. 44 00:02:34,440 --> 00:02:38,639 Speaker 1: It was Let's see, I'm Nicole Webb, senior vice president 45 00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:42,240 Speaker 1: financial advisor at Wealth Enhancement Group. We are one of 46 00:02:42,240 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: the largest independent registered investment advisory firms in the country. UM. 47 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,360 Speaker 1: I've been with the firm for almost twenty years, so 48 00:02:50,400 --> 00:02:53,680 Speaker 1: that dates me a bit. UM. Perhaps the secret about 49 00:02:53,720 --> 00:02:57,440 Speaker 1: me is my actual age and the work that I do. 50 00:02:57,560 --> 00:03:02,400 Speaker 1: I work directly for high net worth families, unifying their 51 00:03:02,440 --> 00:03:07,000 Speaker 1: investment strategies in the context of their greater financial picture. 52 00:03:07,160 --> 00:03:10,920 Speaker 1: So I spend day to day working in collaboration with attorneys, 53 00:03:11,080 --> 00:03:14,720 Speaker 1: c p A s and then portfolio managers UM. The 54 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:17,320 Speaker 1: team I represent most often when I'm at dinner with 55 00:03:17,360 --> 00:03:19,919 Speaker 1: the two of you are working with Bloomberg. UM is 56 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,600 Speaker 1: I run communications for the investment strategies that we prescribed 57 00:03:23,680 --> 00:03:26,800 Speaker 1: to our clients. You sent some really great and fascinating 58 00:03:26,800 --> 00:03:29,040 Speaker 1: notes our way before we got started. But so let's 59 00:03:29,080 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 1: talk about what happened this week Because we got CPI 60 00:03:31,600 --> 00:03:35,080 Speaker 1: data we also had a really strong retail sales report, 61 00:03:35,560 --> 00:03:37,720 Speaker 1: and so I wanted to ask you what you're seeing 62 00:03:37,800 --> 00:03:40,760 Speaker 1: and what you're making of the market's reaction to some 63 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,960 Speaker 1: of these may be hotter than expected, stronger than expected 64 00:03:44,240 --> 00:03:49,080 Speaker 1: economic data points. Yeah, I think the marriage between strong retail, 65 00:03:49,480 --> 00:03:55,360 Speaker 1: strong CPI, strong labor it confirms a hawkish trajectory for 66 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:59,160 Speaker 1: the Fed. I think there is a lot of misinterpretation 67 00:03:59,560 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: of Powell's comments and the words that get blast across 68 00:04:05,000 --> 00:04:08,760 Speaker 1: headline news versus some of the underlying content. Um, if 69 00:04:08,760 --> 00:04:13,040 Speaker 1: we dig deeper, the FED has not wavered from They're 70 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 1: very clear communication around a two percent target. Also, if 71 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:19,720 Speaker 1: you listen to the words of cash Cary the Minneapolis FED, 72 00:04:20,320 --> 00:04:23,360 Speaker 1: he's very clear, and we picked a target, and we're 73 00:04:23,360 --> 00:04:28,000 Speaker 1: working to the target, not interpretation of data as it comes, 74 00:04:28,200 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: and you know, uh softness and what the end goal is. 75 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:37,039 Speaker 1: And so our takeaway from that is, you know, we 76 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 1: we trust that the Fed, unless they tell us otherwise, 77 00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,640 Speaker 1: is sticking to that mandate. And with that, we came 78 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:48,280 Speaker 1: into three with the expectation that to create the demand 79 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:53,960 Speaker 1: destruction necessary for real price stability. UM, we were headed 80 00:04:54,000 --> 00:04:57,359 Speaker 1: north of five. Our best bet was five and a quarter. 81 00:04:57,480 --> 00:04:59,839 Speaker 1: And I think as we continue to see some of 82 00:05:00,040 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 1: the strong data, UM, we're all starting to adjust if 83 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:08,200 Speaker 1: we go even higher higher than that. What do you 84 00:05:08,279 --> 00:05:10,880 Speaker 1: make of that two percent target? How justified is that 85 00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:13,880 Speaker 1: or even realistic? Because earlier in the intro they're not 86 00:05:14,040 --> 00:05:17,040 Speaker 1: even said that. You think about four percent, that's quite 87 00:05:17,040 --> 00:05:20,320 Speaker 1: far from the two percent FED target. Yeah, and actually 88 00:05:20,600 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: last week hearing cash kari Um interviewed and say we 89 00:05:26,000 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 1: are totally committed to hitting a two percent target, that 90 00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 1: was a little moment of awe for me. There was 91 00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:37,880 Speaker 1: this expectation that at least at our firm, that things 92 00:05:37,880 --> 00:05:41,320 Speaker 1: were going to normalize to some degree organically um, and 93 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:43,880 Speaker 1: that there were going to be elements of inflation that 94 00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:46,279 Speaker 1: were transitory in nature. It was just going to be 95 00:05:46,320 --> 00:05:50,839 Speaker 1: a longer roadway for the settling. What we're seeing though, 96 00:05:50,880 --> 00:05:55,919 Speaker 1: with the resilience of the consumer, the labor market, which 97 00:05:56,240 --> 00:05:59,480 Speaker 1: you know structurally, I have so much curiosity about where 98 00:05:59,520 --> 00:06:01,680 Speaker 1: we go from there because there's things we can't fix 99 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:06,360 Speaker 1: with interest rates alone. All of that to say, if 100 00:06:06,360 --> 00:06:08,520 Speaker 1: the two percent target is real, that feels like a 101 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,480 Speaker 1: bit of a brick wall that we're running towards. Okay, 102 00:06:11,520 --> 00:06:15,400 Speaker 1: So we used to have a debate over hard landing 103 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:19,920 Speaker 1: soft landing. Now I'm hearing there's no landing. In your notes, 104 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,679 Speaker 1: you said there are many potential outcomes for what comes next, 105 00:06:22,920 --> 00:06:25,080 Speaker 1: and the market may not be pricing in all of 106 00:06:25,080 --> 00:06:26,960 Speaker 1: those outcomes. So can you tell us a little bit 107 00:06:27,000 --> 00:06:29,200 Speaker 1: more about that. So when we think about a no 108 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:34,240 Speaker 1: landing scenario where growth remains strong in light of persistent inflation, 109 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:37,839 Speaker 1: this one, this one to me, is there just needs 110 00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:41,080 Speaker 1: to be a bit more words, there's no landing right now, 111 00:06:41,320 --> 00:06:43,479 Speaker 1: meaning we just where we haven't gotten to that point 112 00:06:43,520 --> 00:06:47,320 Speaker 1: where the captain comes over the microphone and says, you know, 113 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:50,600 Speaker 1: we're twenty minutes from landing. We've started our descent. We're 114 00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:55,160 Speaker 1: just not there. And two was all about the imminent 115 00:06:55,440 --> 00:07:00,240 Speaker 1: nature of a global recession and as we kick off 116 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:04,840 Speaker 1: or I guess we're halfway through already quarter one the 117 00:07:04,920 --> 00:07:08,880 Speaker 1: no landing scenario. My interpretation of it is is we're 118 00:07:08,920 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: just not in dissent yet. There has certainly been some 119 00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:16,040 Speaker 1: damage that has occurred thus far, even outside of housing, 120 00:07:16,360 --> 00:07:21,400 Speaker 1: manufacturing confidence across the board, and so you know, I 121 00:07:21,400 --> 00:07:25,520 Speaker 1: would say we're just delayed in our landing um and 122 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:31,120 Speaker 1: the rollover or the effects of of tight money is 123 00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 1: going to trickle through into the system. And this expectation 124 00:07:34,840 --> 00:07:38,480 Speaker 1: of earnings growth at three percent seems wildly optimistic to me. 125 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,600 Speaker 1: So going back to inflation, which came in slightly hotter 126 00:07:42,640 --> 00:07:45,400 Speaker 1: than expected, what do you make of that? Because it 127 00:07:46,400 --> 00:07:49,480 Speaker 1: came in against the backdrop of earnings which also haven't 128 00:07:49,640 --> 00:07:55,120 Speaker 1: been great. How should investors position themselves? I guess yeah, 129 00:07:55,360 --> 00:07:57,560 Speaker 1: you know, there's no doubt that inflation is cooling from 130 00:07:57,560 --> 00:08:01,120 Speaker 1: the forty year highs, but it's certainly not cooling as anticipated. 131 00:08:01,120 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 1: And most importantly, progress appears to be slowing. And you know, 132 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,679 Speaker 1: the kind of the key takeaways that that we looked 133 00:08:08,680 --> 00:08:12,760 Speaker 1: at most closely, we're we're constantly trying to digest as 134 00:08:12,800 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 1: this noise or a signal and what we if you 135 00:08:16,520 --> 00:08:20,480 Speaker 1: go below the surface, there was really broad goods data 136 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:24,840 Speaker 1: to support strength in inflation, resilience in areas that we 137 00:08:24,920 --> 00:08:30,160 Speaker 1: hadn't necessarily expected. So I think apparel, medical goods. When 138 00:08:30,160 --> 00:08:35,760 Speaker 1: it comes to portfolio positioning, it's hard not it's hard 139 00:08:35,840 --> 00:08:37,880 Speaker 1: not to, and I laugh a little bit because I can't. 140 00:08:37,880 --> 00:08:41,560 Speaker 1: I can't really believe, you know, the reverse course we've 141 00:08:41,600 --> 00:08:44,840 Speaker 1: taken in terms of talking about fixed income in such 142 00:08:44,880 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 1: a short period of time. But secondarily to that, you know, 143 00:08:48,760 --> 00:08:52,960 Speaker 1: we are still looking at being overweight towards value sectors 144 00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,880 Speaker 1: and that certainly hasn't made us winners in terms of 145 00:08:56,920 --> 00:09:00,880 Speaker 1: portfolio performance ear to date. But we're or whopping one 146 00:09:00,920 --> 00:09:03,880 Speaker 1: and a half months in UM, and this duration trade 147 00:09:03,920 --> 00:09:07,040 Speaker 1: that we're seeing play out we expect to be short lived. 148 00:09:07,960 --> 00:09:10,120 Speaker 1: You read my mind with that, because the next question 149 00:09:10,120 --> 00:09:12,000 Speaker 1: I wanted to ask you is in the notes you 150 00:09:12,040 --> 00:09:15,000 Speaker 1: sent over, you very smartly said, I accept that I 151 00:09:15,040 --> 00:09:18,480 Speaker 1: have underperformed in the year thus far. Duration trades are 152 00:09:18,559 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 1: leading the way. So I wanted to to ask you 153 00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:24,080 Speaker 1: to to talk more about this, and UM, it sounds 154 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:27,480 Speaker 1: like maybe you guys are underweight growth or some of 155 00:09:27,520 --> 00:09:31,200 Speaker 1: those those tech names that have really been out performing 156 00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:36,319 Speaker 1: so far this year. Like any investment professional, our job 157 00:09:36,840 --> 00:09:41,000 Speaker 1: at times is to be mindful about not being bullied 158 00:09:41,080 --> 00:09:45,240 Speaker 1: by a rally, and this year has certainly been one 159 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 1: of those times. To us. Fundamentally, does technology makes sense 160 00:09:51,840 --> 00:09:54,920 Speaker 1: from a valuation standpoint? We're looking at companies that are 161 00:09:54,960 --> 00:09:58,880 Speaker 1: trading forty five percent above their ten near average on 162 00:09:59,080 --> 00:10:04,199 Speaker 1: PE in a two real rate environment. To our best estimation, 163 00:10:04,559 --> 00:10:07,880 Speaker 1: much of this rally in mega technology or if you 164 00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:09,959 Speaker 1: even want to just call it a NASDAC rally year 165 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,600 Speaker 1: to date, it's a little bit of an unwinding of 166 00:10:12,640 --> 00:10:16,600 Speaker 1: the sell off of last year, probably closely followed by 167 00:10:16,600 --> 00:10:19,320 Speaker 1: a bit of a FOAMO rally, meaning there's just so 168 00:10:19,400 --> 00:10:23,160 Speaker 1: much cash still on the sidelines, kind of chasing participation. 169 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:25,480 Speaker 1: And so as much as we talk about you know, 170 00:10:25,520 --> 00:10:28,160 Speaker 1: the risk free rate on the one year treasury hovering 171 00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:31,280 Speaker 1: around five when you see some of these big names 172 00:10:31,400 --> 00:10:35,800 Speaker 1: plus forty plus fifty plus seventy percent already year to date, 173 00:10:36,240 --> 00:10:38,960 Speaker 1: that's such a huge variation where there is a bit 174 00:10:39,000 --> 00:10:42,920 Speaker 1: of you know, fear of missing out on that big performance. 175 00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:47,439 Speaker 1: But to us, again going back to the technical aspect, 176 00:10:47,920 --> 00:10:50,840 Speaker 1: you know, we're not bullish on the stickiness of this 177 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 1: as we don't see any type of FED pivot and 178 00:10:54,520 --> 00:11:03,199 Speaker 1: liquidity event in the near term. You're talking about the 179 00:11:03,280 --> 00:11:05,520 Speaker 1: risk free rate, So if we're thinking about six months 180 00:11:05,520 --> 00:11:08,520 Speaker 1: he bills, for example, the yield there is very similar 181 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:12,360 Speaker 1: to the SMP earning syield. They're almost evenly matched around 182 00:11:12,480 --> 00:11:15,080 Speaker 1: five percent. So I wanted to ask you, like what 183 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:18,240 Speaker 1: even would be what's what are the reasons to be 184 00:11:18,280 --> 00:11:21,880 Speaker 1: owning sucks? And and does it sound like it's mostly 185 00:11:21,920 --> 00:11:25,720 Speaker 1: people not really trusting the rally or not believing the rally, 186 00:11:25,800 --> 00:11:28,080 Speaker 1: but but needing or wanting to be in so that 187 00:11:28,120 --> 00:11:30,679 Speaker 1: they're not missing out on what we've seen so far. 188 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:34,920 Speaker 1: You know, if there's one thing that two decades in 189 00:11:34,960 --> 00:11:37,480 Speaker 1: this industry, and I'm certain the two decades I have 190 00:11:37,559 --> 00:11:40,360 Speaker 1: in front of me in this industry yet will continue 191 00:11:40,400 --> 00:11:43,040 Speaker 1: to teach me and humble me with, it's there's never 192 00:11:43,080 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: a good time to be risk on or risk off 193 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:49,240 Speaker 1: as an individual. Um. You know, your long positions remain long, 194 00:11:49,360 --> 00:11:52,720 Speaker 1: and there is intrinsic value because at some point the 195 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: market does begin to price in the future pivot or 196 00:11:57,080 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: stall out of the FED, the return of loose policy, 197 00:12:03,280 --> 00:12:06,200 Speaker 1: and as a result of that, you know, it can't 198 00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:10,920 Speaker 1: be perfectly timed, however, to counterbalance that, you know, for 199 00:12:11,240 --> 00:12:15,400 Speaker 1: people who you know had a defensive positioning that was 200 00:12:16,400 --> 00:12:19,800 Speaker 1: underperforming relative to the risk free rate, this is a 201 00:12:19,800 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: great time to be transitioning into the laddering of of treasuries, certainly, 202 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:26,720 Speaker 1: but then also looking at some of the you know, 203 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,080 Speaker 1: the the net asset value or the mark to market 204 00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:33,520 Speaker 1: on on fixed income funds in general, and seeking no 205 00:12:33,559 --> 00:12:37,760 Speaker 1: longer just a ballast, but some appreciation opportunity, as we 206 00:12:37,800 --> 00:12:41,800 Speaker 1: don't expect the terminal rate, wherever we may land with it, 207 00:12:41,880 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: to stay there in perpetuity forever, simply fed action moving 208 00:12:46,720 --> 00:12:50,400 Speaker 1: us towards price stability, at which point then we expect 209 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:53,679 Speaker 1: that they too will come back to a more median 210 00:12:53,800 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 1: level for a terminal rate. I'm still thinking about your 211 00:12:57,840 --> 00:13:00,640 Speaker 1: don't let their ally bully you comment, did come I 212 00:13:00,720 --> 00:13:05,080 Speaker 1: know your life mantra? But yes, the stock market has 213 00:13:05,120 --> 00:13:07,800 Speaker 1: indeed rallied, and as some have been saying, it's gone 214 00:13:07,840 --> 00:13:10,280 Speaker 1: too far, too fast. Why do you think that it's 215 00:13:10,320 --> 00:13:14,120 Speaker 1: not taking the right cues from the bond market? Has 216 00:13:14,160 --> 00:13:16,560 Speaker 1: such a good question, and one that I would say 217 00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 1: that I asked every day. There seems to be this 218 00:13:19,600 --> 00:13:23,680 Speaker 1: this possibility that the equity market is at the surface 219 00:13:23,760 --> 00:13:28,120 Speaker 1: level not taking the right cue from the bond market. 220 00:13:28,800 --> 00:13:31,040 Speaker 1: And what I mean by that most specifically is as 221 00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:34,640 Speaker 1: we start to look out at yields and kind of 222 00:13:34,679 --> 00:13:38,559 Speaker 1: the timing or the inversion of the curve, the steepness 223 00:13:38,600 --> 00:13:42,280 Speaker 1: of it, it's almost as if the equity market is 224 00:13:42,320 --> 00:13:46,960 Speaker 1: pricing in this moment in time in which financial data 225 00:13:47,120 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 1: rolls over, there's enough weakness to support the FED pivot 226 00:13:51,840 --> 00:13:55,160 Speaker 1: or the FED paws or whatever moment in time UM 227 00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:59,120 Speaker 1: investors need and this not wanting to miss out on it. 228 00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:02,560 Speaker 1: So when you think about kind of valuation reset of 229 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:06,960 Speaker 1: last year, and if three was really an expectation of 230 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:11,079 Speaker 1: a reset on earnings, then one could say, well, the 231 00:14:11,160 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 1: valuations themselves got beat up enough last year that I 232 00:14:15,400 --> 00:14:19,560 Speaker 1: am a willing buyer at these levels. And you couple 233 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:22,240 Speaker 1: that with an expectation that if you looked at the 234 00:14:22,240 --> 00:14:25,800 Speaker 1: bond market twelve, eighteen, twenty four months from now, it 235 00:14:25,880 --> 00:14:29,600 Speaker 1: was signaling, you know, a reversion back towards policy that 236 00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:34,120 Speaker 1: looked more like policy of past um in terms of 237 00:14:33,720 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 1: of FED action. That would that would indicate that the 238 00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,200 Speaker 1: marks on some of these on some of these names, 239 00:14:41,560 --> 00:14:46,440 Speaker 1: UM we're trading at at a relative discount. My fear 240 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 1: is that the actual cue coming from the bond market 241 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:53,360 Speaker 1: is more screaming that the rollover of the financial data 242 00:14:53,800 --> 00:14:57,400 Speaker 1: is going to be fast and it's going to be 243 00:14:57,720 --> 00:15:01,760 Speaker 1: quite furious, and that there will be a moment in 244 00:15:01,840 --> 00:15:08,600 Speaker 1: time where the swiftness of of the movement and interest 245 00:15:08,680 --> 00:15:12,480 Speaker 1: rates suddenly comes to head, and I think that that 246 00:15:12,600 --> 00:15:15,160 Speaker 1: still lies up lies ahead as a possible threat to 247 00:15:15,160 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 1: the markets. What about what we're seeing in terms of 248 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: the data right now, Because if we're thinking about the 249 00:15:21,000 --> 00:15:24,520 Speaker 1: economy slowing down, what is the evidence that the economy 250 00:15:24,600 --> 00:15:27,840 Speaker 1: is slowing down so far? To get to our target? 251 00:15:28,400 --> 00:15:31,640 Speaker 1: We actually still need growth to slow. We need a 252 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: labor market to come to balance. We need clear evidence 253 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,720 Speaker 1: of price stability across goods and services, and we don't 254 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:41,600 Speaker 1: have any of those. The only things that we have 255 00:15:41,800 --> 00:15:46,120 Speaker 1: thus far are a slowdown in manufacturing, a slowing in 256 00:15:46,280 --> 00:15:50,720 Speaker 1: confidence surveys and confidence levels across the board. In terms 257 00:15:50,720 --> 00:15:55,360 Speaker 1: of seeing the actual demand destruction hit, it's not there yet. 258 00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:59,680 Speaker 1: What we don't know, and what some members of the 259 00:15:59,720 --> 00:16:04,440 Speaker 1: FED are still holding onto, is the notion that stim 260 00:16:04,560 --> 00:16:08,680 Speaker 1: stimulus is finally running out and that another quarter or 261 00:16:08,680 --> 00:16:13,800 Speaker 1: two from now, perhaps we see the participation rate, um, 262 00:16:13,840 --> 00:16:17,560 Speaker 1: you know, move away from these all time lows. If 263 00:16:17,600 --> 00:16:21,120 Speaker 1: if that happens, and then perhaps that helps us out 264 00:16:21,120 --> 00:16:23,680 Speaker 1: a bit. I want to move away from the US 265 00:16:23,760 --> 00:16:26,560 Speaker 1: and go to Asia, where I was born. That's a 266 00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:30,120 Speaker 1: nice secret. Should have been your secret in China. What 267 00:16:30,160 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 1: do you make of the China reopening. There's so many 268 00:16:32,880 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 1: questions around that. A lot of people at first, even 269 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:37,960 Speaker 1: Goldman Sack said it's going to be bumpy. But I 270 00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,720 Speaker 1: think it's bumpier than most people thought. And I just 271 00:16:40,760 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: read an article saying that fund managers are saying the 272 00:16:44,360 --> 00:16:47,640 Speaker 1: treasuries will phase more pressure from inflation, but this time 273 00:16:47,640 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 1: with China as the key catalysts, not the US. So interesting, 274 00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:55,960 Speaker 1: you know, even call it twenty four months ago when 275 00:16:55,960 --> 00:16:59,520 Speaker 1: it came to China. In the short term, we weren't 276 00:16:59,560 --> 00:17:02,960 Speaker 1: necessary early overly bullish, just simply because of the impacts 277 00:17:02,960 --> 00:17:06,760 Speaker 1: of COVID and and some of their policy surrounding COVID 278 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:09,159 Speaker 1: and the uncertainty about directionally where they would go. But 279 00:17:09,240 --> 00:17:12,480 Speaker 1: from a bullish standpoint, you know, this shift to a 280 00:17:12,520 --> 00:17:17,040 Speaker 1: more capitalistic agenda and mindset as an economy, you know, 281 00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:21,040 Speaker 1: it's always very interesting to us. The geopolitical risks, and 282 00:17:21,720 --> 00:17:25,240 Speaker 1: that again heightened by you know, thirty days ago we're 283 00:17:25,240 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 1: talking about the China reopening. We're looking at just kind 284 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:32,360 Speaker 1: of the broad emerging market just tear that we've been 285 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:35,360 Speaker 1: on in a positive way year to date, a lot 286 00:17:35,400 --> 00:17:37,760 Speaker 1: of which had to do with the the US dollar 287 00:17:37,880 --> 00:17:41,000 Speaker 1: and the strength all of that to say, when it 288 00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:45,880 Speaker 1: comes to China and the opportunity there, there's no doubt 289 00:17:45,960 --> 00:17:49,120 Speaker 1: in our minds that they will continue to have a 290 00:17:49,200 --> 00:17:52,400 Speaker 1: seat at ahead of the global economic table, that they're 291 00:17:52,480 --> 00:17:56,280 Speaker 1: right there with us. In terms of as an investor today, 292 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,439 Speaker 1: it has to be a much longer positioning versus you know, 293 00:18:00,480 --> 00:18:03,000 Speaker 1: this ideation that we have of kind of managing a 294 00:18:03,080 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: p m L day to day UM and from that perspective, 295 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:12,200 Speaker 1: that's really the way we think about incrementally adjusting UM 296 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:17,480 Speaker 1: our China exposure over time. What about any other international 297 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,600 Speaker 1: areas when it comes to positioning or investing, What do 298 00:18:21,680 --> 00:18:23,959 Speaker 1: you guys make of the valley that we've seen in 299 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:27,159 Speaker 1: international stocks? You mentioned e M. International stocks have been 300 00:18:27,160 --> 00:18:31,320 Speaker 1: outperforming US stocks for the first time in forever. So 301 00:18:31,720 --> 00:18:33,320 Speaker 1: how do you guys think about that or what do 302 00:18:33,359 --> 00:18:35,760 Speaker 1: you recommend when clients come to you with those questions? 303 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:38,399 Speaker 1: So first and foremost, I mean, there's there tends to 304 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:44,440 Speaker 1: be waves of relative outperformance US versus abroad, and one 305 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,480 Speaker 1: could make a really strong case for heading into this year, 306 00:18:48,280 --> 00:18:52,480 Speaker 1: it seemed due time that the wave of outperformance came 307 00:18:52,560 --> 00:18:55,760 Speaker 1: from non US securities. Just if a company was based 308 00:18:55,800 --> 00:18:59,200 Speaker 1: outside of the US, the discount you were receiving relative 309 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,800 Speaker 1: for the for the exact same company from a kind 310 00:19:02,840 --> 00:19:06,119 Speaker 1: of a fundamental standpoint look dislocated enough that there was 311 00:19:06,400 --> 00:19:09,639 Speaker 1: there was a good reason with that. Also, you know, 312 00:19:09,760 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 1: playing into the US dollar and the expectation that it 313 00:19:13,440 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 1: would from relative strength perspective begin to normalize. All of 314 00:19:19,560 --> 00:19:23,880 Speaker 1: that create a tailwind for non US investing heading into 315 00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:27,240 Speaker 1: this year. Pairing that also though with portfolio construction in 316 00:19:27,359 --> 00:19:30,760 Speaker 1: the US, looking at the China reopening and thinking more 317 00:19:30,840 --> 00:19:36,000 Speaker 1: about the global consumer. You know, China coming back online 318 00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 1: has a lot of implications and some of them, you know, 319 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 1: kind of go without being talked about in terms of 320 00:19:44,840 --> 00:19:48,359 Speaker 1: headline news, and the street tends to kind of not 321 00:19:48,440 --> 00:19:53,320 Speaker 1: pay enough attention to the incremental growth component of that's 322 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:55,960 Speaker 1: going to happen. And so areas we loved and that 323 00:19:56,080 --> 00:19:58,879 Speaker 1: continue to do well this year. We're luxury goods and 324 00:19:58,960 --> 00:20:02,760 Speaker 1: then also attainable luxuries. When you think about um the 325 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:06,880 Speaker 1: non US population, so names like St. A Lauder, Starbucks, Nike, 326 00:20:07,560 --> 00:20:11,600 Speaker 1: um as as people around the world become more mobile again, 327 00:20:11,880 --> 00:20:14,400 Speaker 1: duty free shopping, all of those things come into play 328 00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 1: in terms of portfolio construction. St. Lauder was my mom's 329 00:20:18,800 --> 00:20:23,639 Speaker 1: favorite makeup before going back to China. Can the impact 330 00:20:23,680 --> 00:20:27,200 Speaker 1: of the China reopening offset the incremental slowdown we're seeing 331 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:31,040 Speaker 1: in the US. Our bet is on yes in terms 332 00:20:31,160 --> 00:20:35,639 Speaker 1: of margin, in terms of you know, some of the 333 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:44,760 Speaker 1: earnings numbers. Will it go unnoticed? Perhaps, Um, But we 334 00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:48,840 Speaker 1: do think that the Chinese consumer has a lot of 335 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:53,840 Speaker 1: pent up demand. However, they are not coming the thing 336 00:20:53,920 --> 00:20:55,639 Speaker 1: we also have to be really careful about when we 337 00:20:55,720 --> 00:20:59,199 Speaker 1: think about China reopening as a whole. They're not coming 338 00:20:59,320 --> 00:21:04,320 Speaker 1: out of their COVID policy the same way Americans did 339 00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:08,200 Speaker 1: with a lot of stimulus in their pockets. Um. That's 340 00:21:08,240 --> 00:21:14,200 Speaker 1: a very Um, that's not a consumer trend um or 341 00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 1: expectation that we have. Their life during those roughly three 342 00:21:18,280 --> 00:21:22,000 Speaker 1: years of COVID policy looked much different than ours, and 343 00:21:22,160 --> 00:21:26,200 Speaker 1: so um, it may not be enough to offset where 344 00:21:26,359 --> 00:21:30,640 Speaker 1: we think directionally, Um, we're headed as we start to see, 345 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,879 Speaker 1: as I mentioned previously, some of this kind of rolling 346 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,920 Speaker 1: through or some of the data to start really representing 347 00:21:37,640 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 1: the restrictive policy that we've been living in now. Uh, 348 00:21:41,720 --> 00:21:44,520 Speaker 1: you know, for for the better part of six months. Nicole, 349 00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:48,359 Speaker 1: I feel like we've put you through the wranger this, 350 00:21:48,600 --> 00:21:51,920 Speaker 1: this entire interview, this entire discussion. So thank you so 351 00:21:52,080 --> 00:21:55,119 Speaker 1: much for joining us on the show today. It does 352 00:21:55,200 --> 00:21:57,600 Speaker 1: sometimes feel I feel so bad. Sometimes it feels like 353 00:21:57,680 --> 00:21:59,720 Speaker 1: it's like the inquisition, like what are your thoughts on 354 00:22:00,160 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 1: how should we be positioning? Boss? And everything from stocks 355 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,680 Speaker 1: to bonds and everything. But that's Nicole web Senior VP 356 00:22:06,840 --> 00:22:24,439 Speaker 1: and financial advisor at well Enhanceman Group. We have one 357 00:22:24,480 --> 00:22:26,600 Speaker 1: more ringer to put you through, actually, but it's the 358 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 1: best ringer. It's the best ringer. It's we're going to 359 00:22:29,000 --> 00:22:33,400 Speaker 1: play the craziest things we saw in markets this week. 360 00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,480 Speaker 1: And Isabel, since it's your first time on the show, 361 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:37,760 Speaker 1: I think you have to go first. That's okay, I'm 362 00:22:37,960 --> 00:22:40,920 Speaker 1: very proud of mine. I'm not sure of it too, 363 00:22:41,119 --> 00:22:44,400 Speaker 1: So it needs it would be super good business related. Okay. Fine, 364 00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:49,400 Speaker 1: So everyone knows Winnie the Pooh, Yes, a little bear. Okay, 365 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,879 Speaker 1: So now there's a Winned Winnie the Pool, Blood and Honey. 366 00:22:53,119 --> 00:22:55,439 Speaker 1: So it's a horror film made for a less than 367 00:22:55,480 --> 00:22:58,639 Speaker 1: a hundred thousand, no less, and it's the premise is 368 00:22:59,119 --> 00:23:04,080 Speaker 1: Winned the Pool and his friend Piglet starving because Christopher 369 00:23:04,160 --> 00:23:07,640 Speaker 1: Robin leaves them for college and can no longer feed them. 370 00:23:07,760 --> 00:23:10,240 Speaker 1: This is the worst thing I've ever had in my life. 371 00:23:10,280 --> 00:23:13,119 Speaker 1: Are you insane so they kill and eat their friend? 372 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 1: Or are you crazy on a murderous spree. I'm not crazy. 373 00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:21,560 Speaker 1: It actually got a readership spike in the Bloomberg terminal, 374 00:23:21,640 --> 00:23:24,640 Speaker 1: meaning like a lot of people read it all at once. 375 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:27,640 Speaker 1: This is your craziest thing. It is very crazy, don't 376 00:23:27,640 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 1: you think I will never look at what where's the money? 377 00:23:31,080 --> 00:23:33,000 Speaker 1: Where's the market single? I will never look at we 378 00:23:33,119 --> 00:23:34,960 Speaker 1: need the po the same way the markets angle is 379 00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:38,160 Speaker 1: that people are interested in these types of things. I suppose, 380 00:23:38,359 --> 00:23:41,040 Speaker 1: Oh my gosh, do you know how depressed you just 381 00:23:41,200 --> 00:23:45,240 Speaker 1: made me make for less than a thousand, So that's 382 00:23:45,320 --> 00:23:48,639 Speaker 1: pretty impressive. I'm really curious how they'll do that. I mean, 383 00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,600 Speaker 1: I'm going to google it so i'll meet the next 384 00:23:50,680 --> 00:23:55,280 Speaker 1: click me too. But I'm horrified. It's cute enough scary way, 385 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,560 Speaker 1: it's not cute at all. And we talked about being 386 00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:01,600 Speaker 1: mid Charians earlier. Oh my gosh, you Nicole, what about you? 387 00:24:02,640 --> 00:24:06,800 Speaker 1: It's something less terrifying than that. You know something this 388 00:24:07,080 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 1: it's kind of terrifying, actually, so one that comes to 389 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: mind first for me, and we didn't even touch on 390 00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,879 Speaker 1: it during my inquisition, as you so kindly referenced it, 391 00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,280 Speaker 1: which it was a little bit nicer than that, but 392 00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 1: I will say it was a lot of It was 393 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,680 Speaker 1: a lot of content, you know. There there seems to 394 00:24:22,800 --> 00:24:27,960 Speaker 1: be some structural issues with the labor market. And something 395 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:32,359 Speaker 1: that really resonates with me this week is we in 396 00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:36,320 Speaker 1: the states of Minnesota and Iowa, there is now a 397 00:24:36,480 --> 00:24:40,800 Speaker 1: petition to change child labor laws UM to meet the 398 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:45,720 Speaker 1: shortage of workers in UH industries like meat packing and 399 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:49,879 Speaker 1: meat processing and construction, and they're looking at revising the 400 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:54,119 Speaker 1: legal age for children to start working down to fourteen 401 00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:57,480 Speaker 1: years old. You should see our jaws right now. You 402 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,960 Speaker 1: should are we are jobs? I think that says a 403 00:25:01,960 --> 00:25:06,760 Speaker 1: lot about UH, where the labor market is and where 404 00:25:06,800 --> 00:25:09,680 Speaker 1: it's expected. This the most morose discussion I've ever had 405 00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:14,200 Speaker 1: in my entire age before what was it reduced from? Yeah, 406 00:25:14,280 --> 00:25:17,640 Speaker 1: you can work on a very specific part time schedule 407 00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 1: UM with certain hours between the ages starting at the 408 00:25:21,359 --> 00:25:23,720 Speaker 1: age of fifteen. I believe it is in those states. 409 00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:28,160 Speaker 1: But they're looking at especially for the upcoming summer, looking 410 00:25:28,240 --> 00:25:30,600 Speaker 1: at kind of extending what those hours can be. And 411 00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,080 Speaker 1: then again, like I said, the minimum age for working 412 00:25:33,160 --> 00:25:35,960 Speaker 1: down to fourteen, which I don't know if you have 413 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:39,440 Speaker 1: any exposure to what a meat processing plant looks like. 414 00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:42,720 Speaker 1: But that's a tough environment to put a fourteen year 415 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,280 Speaker 1: old of the hardest jobs. That one shocked me. But 416 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 1: that that just basically that just gives us a view 417 00:25:49,040 --> 00:25:52,720 Speaker 1: into the labor shortage in the US, right, it really does. 418 00:25:53,680 --> 00:25:56,680 Speaker 1: M and the notion of as we circle back to 419 00:25:56,760 --> 00:25:59,320 Speaker 1: what we were talking about earlier, can the FED really 420 00:25:59,400 --> 00:26:04,960 Speaker 1: do enough with rates alone to combat what we're up against, 421 00:26:05,119 --> 00:26:08,760 Speaker 1: especially when it comes to labor. I'm speechless. My eyes 422 00:26:08,800 --> 00:26:11,720 Speaker 1: are still bulging out of the eye sockets, and I'm 423 00:26:11,760 --> 00:26:15,800 Speaker 1: still just so shocked. What's your soul, Donna? Oh my gosh? Okay, 424 00:26:16,040 --> 00:26:19,040 Speaker 1: mine is more fun in honor of Mike, who usually 425 00:26:19,760 --> 00:26:22,880 Speaker 1: leads the segment, The Craziest Thing segment. This way, I'm 426 00:26:22,880 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 1: going to try to play my best Mike Reagan role. 427 00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:30,560 Speaker 1: We're going to play, and I always mess up the pronunciation. 428 00:26:30,880 --> 00:26:36,200 Speaker 1: The price is precise, which listeners know, it's not the 429 00:26:37,040 --> 00:26:39,560 Speaker 1: what is it? What's the actual crisis? Right? It's not 430 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:42,200 Speaker 1: the prices, right, it's the price is precise, Okay, have 431 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:45,320 Speaker 1: nothing to do with the prices, right, Okay, good. So 432 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 1: I'm going to give you something, and the two of 433 00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:50,959 Speaker 1: you have to guess the actual cost of this thing. 434 00:26:51,040 --> 00:26:54,480 Speaker 1: It's an auction. Okay. I usually sucking the Okay, this 435 00:26:54,680 --> 00:26:57,639 Speaker 1: is the point of the game. Okay. I found this 436 00:26:57,760 --> 00:27:00,159 Speaker 1: article on Forbes. Mike would be so proud of me. 437 00:27:00,200 --> 00:27:04,680 Speaker 1: I hope he's listening and enjoying what he has kindled 438 00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:11,000 Speaker 1: in me. An ultra rare Harley is now the most 439 00:27:11,080 --> 00:27:17,399 Speaker 1: expensive motorcycle to ever be sold at any auction. It's 440 00:27:17,400 --> 00:27:19,639 Speaker 1: actually quite ugly. They have a picture of it on 441 00:27:19,800 --> 00:27:23,879 Speaker 1: the on the website. And I want the two of 442 00:27:23,960 --> 00:27:27,800 Speaker 1: you to guess what the actual price was. No, I 443 00:27:27,840 --> 00:27:32,600 Speaker 1: don't know. And your first Isabelle one point seven million. 444 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:35,480 Speaker 1: You're going with one point seven million dollars. Should I 445 00:27:35,480 --> 00:27:39,760 Speaker 1: go for seventeen million? Seventeen million dollars? I don't know? 446 00:27:40,880 --> 00:27:46,280 Speaker 1: And what is this one? Okay? One point seven one 447 00:27:46,359 --> 00:27:50,000 Speaker 1: point seven you're going with one point seven million dollars. Okay, Nicole, 448 00:27:50,040 --> 00:27:52,720 Speaker 1: you're you're a contestant on the prices precise. If you 449 00:27:52,800 --> 00:27:56,000 Speaker 1: go over, you know, you know the rules. If you 450 00:27:56,080 --> 00:28:00,639 Speaker 1: go over, you lose, so really, hope is that is wrong? 451 00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:06,360 Speaker 1: I'm I'm gonna go with I mean, it even sounds ludicrous. 452 00:28:06,400 --> 00:28:10,040 Speaker 1: But half a million dollars five hundred thousand, okay, what 453 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:11,960 Speaker 1: is it? Oh my gosh, I don't want to say. 454 00:28:12,000 --> 00:28:16,399 Speaker 1: I want to let the tension continue to run. Okay, 455 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:21,160 Speaker 1: the actual auction was nine hundred and thirty five thousand dollars. 456 00:28:21,280 --> 00:28:24,960 Speaker 1: That's a good midpoint, but still wins one point seven. 457 00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 1: You were way over. Okay, fine, that is true. But yeah, 458 00:28:28,240 --> 00:28:30,800 Speaker 1: does that tell you anything, Nicole about the state of things? 459 00:28:30,840 --> 00:28:33,760 Speaker 1: And um, like I mentioned, Mike tends to do a 460 00:28:33,840 --> 00:28:37,080 Speaker 1: lot of auction stuff, and some of the things with 461 00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,800 Speaker 1: the actual prices that some of these things are going 462 00:28:39,920 --> 00:28:42,480 Speaker 1: for really are so shocking to me sometimes. And I 463 00:28:42,560 --> 00:28:45,920 Speaker 1: think back to twenty one when when it was the 464 00:28:46,080 --> 00:28:48,200 Speaker 1: norm to be seeing n F T s or whatever 465 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:51,320 Speaker 1: else going for really high prices, and still we're seeing 466 00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,320 Speaker 1: I mean, I have no idea what what Harley Davidson 467 00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,360 Speaker 1: should be going for. But does that tell you anything 468 00:28:58,400 --> 00:29:01,240 Speaker 1: about the state of the economy or pent up consumer 469 00:29:01,280 --> 00:29:03,760 Speaker 1: demand or is it more sort of like an ideas 470 00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: around money slashing, or is it an indiosyncratic thing where 471 00:29:06,800 --> 00:29:10,320 Speaker 1: you're just seeing you know, collectibles, certain collectibles going for 472 00:29:11,120 --> 00:29:13,480 Speaker 1: high price is still I think it says a lot 473 00:29:13,600 --> 00:29:22,480 Speaker 1: about the consumer and consumersm mentality of people. I mean, 474 00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,960 Speaker 1: you know, another idea I had for today's UM I 475 00:29:27,040 --> 00:29:29,840 Speaker 1: had so many ideas for the craziest things, but tell 476 00:29:29,920 --> 00:29:35,360 Speaker 1: us there's endless data. There's endless data points to to say. 477 00:29:35,440 --> 00:29:38,440 Speaker 1: People just they want and want and want and don't 478 00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 1: want to miss out. And there certainly is a lot 479 00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,160 Speaker 1: of money still out there in the world. Oh. Another 480 00:29:44,240 --> 00:29:47,040 Speaker 1: one that I had for today was if you look 481 00:29:47,120 --> 00:29:51,920 Speaker 1: at um you know, historically this is the steepest, fastest 482 00:29:52,080 --> 00:29:55,200 Speaker 1: slowdown and housing of all time. If we look at 483 00:29:55,600 --> 00:29:59,720 Speaker 1: housing stocks, UM, so your big names like Lenar, the 484 00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:04,000 Speaker 1: ours of the world. You know, since October of last year, 485 00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,560 Speaker 1: just a few short months, not only are we in 486 00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:10,400 Speaker 1: this this steep downward spiral, but you're seeing those stocks 487 00:30:10,800 --> 00:30:14,160 Speaker 1: you know, up fifty in a matter of three three 488 00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:16,440 Speaker 1: and a half more months. So when I talk about 489 00:30:16,520 --> 00:30:20,560 Speaker 1: this the fomo nature of people, whether it's collectibles or 490 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:25,640 Speaker 1: the kind of these this mismatch, UM, these mismatches in 491 00:30:25,680 --> 00:30:28,680 Speaker 1: the market. You know, going back to the technicals um 492 00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:32,680 Speaker 1: on some of these technology companies. It's hard to get 493 00:30:32,680 --> 00:30:35,440 Speaker 1: into the psyches of people right now. And it feels 494 00:30:35,520 --> 00:30:39,720 Speaker 1: as if there's this you know, mysterious white Knight in 495 00:30:39,760 --> 00:30:42,920 Speaker 1: the world that people just believe swoops in and fixes things, 496 00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,880 Speaker 1: and every thing keeps trucking on and and I guess 497 00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:49,600 Speaker 1: I start to get curious about the you know, that 498 00:30:49,760 --> 00:30:52,600 Speaker 1: point of reckoning when there is no one to purchase 499 00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:56,160 Speaker 1: your nine hundred and thirty thousand dollar collectible motorcycle, what 500 00:30:56,320 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 1: is it worth? It's worthless? And I think we have 501 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:01,880 Speaker 1: to keep that in mind. That's true. It's also about 502 00:31:01,960 --> 00:31:05,240 Speaker 1: consumer demand, Okay, hers is more relevant than my Winnie 503 00:31:05,240 --> 00:31:07,480 Speaker 1: to Pool. I think, Nicole, you win. The Winnie the 504 00:31:07,520 --> 00:31:10,680 Speaker 1: Pooh thing is like, seriously, the saddest thing I've ever heard, 505 00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:15,120 Speaker 1: the saddest, craziest thing. For sure. I've yeah, I can't. 506 00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:17,480 Speaker 1: I don't even want to think about it anymore. I 507 00:31:17,640 --> 00:31:20,000 Speaker 1: just my favorite part about the whole thing was the 508 00:31:20,120 --> 00:31:22,480 Speaker 1: excitement around it, like, oh, I've got a good one. 509 00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:25,520 Speaker 1: Even before we started recording, she was like, oh my god, 510 00:31:25,560 --> 00:31:28,000 Speaker 1: I have the perfect one, and I was like, great, 511 00:31:28,040 --> 00:31:32,520 Speaker 1: I can't wait to hear it. I think every time 512 00:31:32,600 --> 00:31:34,960 Speaker 1: we have a meal together, we should start the meal 513 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:38,160 Speaker 1: with the craziest thing. Yes, I've seen in the markets. 514 00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:42,000 Speaker 1: I'll bring a funner one next time. Yeah, let's see Okay, Nicole, 515 00:31:42,120 --> 00:31:44,920 Speaker 1: thank you so much for joining us. That's Nicole Weeb, 516 00:31:45,160 --> 00:31:48,800 Speaker 1: Senior VP and financial adviser at Wealth Enhancement Group. We're 517 00:31:48,800 --> 00:31:50,840 Speaker 1: STI lucky to have you on the show today. Thank you, 518 00:31:59,600 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 1: We'll go up. We'll be back next week. Until then, 519 00:32:02,920 --> 00:32:05,920 Speaker 1: you can find us on the Bloomber Terminal website and app, 520 00:32:06,600 --> 00:32:09,560 Speaker 1: or wherever you get your podcasts. We'd love it if 521 00:32:09,560 --> 00:32:11,480 Speaker 1: you took the time to rate and review the show 522 00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:14,240 Speaker 1: so more listeners can find us. And you can find 523 00:32:14,360 --> 00:32:19,160 Speaker 1: us on Twitter, follow me at Bildonna Hirich. Mike Reagan 524 00:32:19,320 --> 00:32:24,280 Speaker 1: is at Reaganonymous. You can also follow Bloomer Podcasts at podcasts. 525 00:32:25,000 --> 00:32:27,760 Speaker 1: What Goes Up is produced by Stacy Wong and our 526 00:32:27,840 --> 00:32:31,040 Speaker 1: head of podcasts is Sage Baltman. Thanks for listening and 527 00:32:31,080 --> 00:32:32,040 Speaker 1: we'll see you next week.