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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Prisner. You can join Brian

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Speaker 1: Curtis and myself for the stories, making news and moving

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Speaker 1: markets in the APAC region. You can subscribe to the

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Speaker 1: show anywhere you get your podcast and always on Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Let's get

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Speaker 1: to Bill Lee. He is the chief economist also executive

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Speaker 1: director at the Milkin Institute, normally in Santa Monica, California.

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Speaker 1: Today Bill joins us from Henderson, Nevada. Bill, it's always

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Speaker 1: a pleasure. Thanks so much for making time to chat

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Speaker 1: with us. Can I begin by getting your reaction to

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Speaker 1: what you heard out of Jackson Hole, what fed shared

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Speaker 1: Jabe Powell had.

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Speaker 2: To say, Well, I and every other person in the

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Speaker 2: market is just breathe a sigh of relief when shar

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Speaker 2: Paul finally said we're ready to move, and we're gonna

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Speaker 2: move unless something addressfully goes wrong. And I think that's

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Speaker 2: really great because right now, I think it's pretty clear

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Speaker 2: that the US economy is starting to slow down quite

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Speaker 2: a bit, and the inflation dragon has really been slayd.

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Speaker 2: If you look at financial markets, the break even inflation

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Speaker 2: rates have now dropped to below two percent for five

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Speaker 2: year break evens, and I think that's a very good

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Speaker 2: sign that the expectations are pretty well anchored at the

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Speaker 2: two percent level, and now they're rightly turning to what's

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Speaker 2: going on with the economy and the labor market.

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Speaker 1: What do you think about the Fed's timing? Are they

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Speaker 1: a little late now?

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Speaker 2: I think they really got it right because just you know,

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Speaker 2: as recently as last June, the financial markets were still

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Speaker 2: pricing break evens at about two quarter two, somewhere between

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Speaker 2: two point three and two point five, So I think

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Speaker 2: the markets were not convinced that inflation really has been

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Speaker 2: put on a clear trajectory down to two percent. The

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Speaker 2: latest set of data that we got really, I think

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Speaker 2: provided that convincing evidence, and the FED reacted pretty quickly

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Speaker 2: to that new evidence.

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Speaker 1: So do we get the soft landing that many people

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Speaker 1: have been hoping for or is there really a bit

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Speaker 1: of risk here that we may tip into recession? What

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Speaker 1: do you think?

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Speaker 2: I think the recession risk is pretty low. I think

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Speaker 2: the fact that people worry about the unemployment rate going

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Speaker 2: from three and a half to four zero point three percent,

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Speaker 2: triggering the so called sam rule is really silly because

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Speaker 2: every columnist you talk to, well who at least that

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Speaker 2: knows anything about markets at a labor market, will tell

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Speaker 2: you cannot have a recession if there are no layoffs. Right,

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Speaker 2: that unemployment rate rose because people said, Wow, it's really

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Speaker 2: a good time to look for a job and rather

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Speaker 2: than staying home, I can get a side gig or

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Speaker 2: a part time job and make ends meet better. And

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Speaker 2: that's where the weakness is. If there's any weakness in

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Speaker 2: the economy at all, it's in consumption. Because since the

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Speaker 2: beginning of this year, consumption continues to grow like a

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Speaker 2: five percent at an annual rate, but income has dropped

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Speaker 2: down to maybe three less than three percent. So we're

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Speaker 2: going to have to keep an eye on how consumption

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Speaker 2: can be sustained. And right now only only the rich

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Speaker 2: people are doing it.

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Speaker 1: Listening to and I'm getting a little concerned maybe that

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Speaker 1: the earnings for the equity market might begin to deteriorate

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Speaker 1: a bit. Is that essentially what you're pointing.

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Speaker 2: To, Well, I think the equity markets depend upon not

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Speaker 2: only the interest rate, which is fed as saying, we're

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Speaker 2: lowering but also on expected profits. And right now the

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Speaker 2: tech boom, I think is a pretty solid backing for

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Speaker 2: operating profits going forward. There's a very strong relationship between

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Speaker 2: the amount of investment in technology and software and the

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Speaker 2: rise in corporate profits. But I'm more concerned with the

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Speaker 2: income distribution the United States and how it is that

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Speaker 2: is really the rich people who are sustaining consumption because

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Speaker 2: they're able to dip into savings that have been enhanced

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Speaker 2: by the rise in stock market ownership. In the stock

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Speaker 2: market is about seventy percent of the stock market is

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Speaker 2: owned by the top ten percent, and if you add

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Speaker 2: pension funds and everything else, then you can bring in

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Speaker 2: maybe the rest of the forty percent. But the lower

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Speaker 2: fifty percent of the income distribution that own barely two

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Speaker 2: percent of all stock market of pession fund assets, they're

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Speaker 2: the ones who are having to get second jobs to

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Speaker 2: make ends meat, and they're the ones that are accounting

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Speaker 2: for why it is that payrolls we're growing so rapidly

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Speaker 2: when the household serve is showing the number of people

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Speaker 2: who are getting jobs didn't grow at all.

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Speaker 1: So what does that mean then for the election in November?

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Speaker 1: The presidential election if everything that you're saying is accurate,

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Speaker 1: and I don't say that or I'm not saying that

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Speaker 1: it isn't, how does that show up.

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Speaker 3: At the polls?

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Speaker 2: Hey, Doug, that's where I think you have the complaints

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Speaker 2: that it's the economy stupid. That that really so many

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Speaker 2: people are saying. Hey, you might say, be telling me

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Speaker 2: that GDP growth is great, but I'm having trouble making

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Speaker 2: ends meet. The cost of living is still so high.

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Speaker 2: I have to get a second and possibly even a

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Speaker 2: third job in order to make ends meet, to meet necessities.

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Speaker 2: And the elections, I think if the polls and the

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Speaker 2: elections are showing exactly that, why is it that people

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Speaker 2: complain that it's inflation that's the big problem. It's not,

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Speaker 2: I think in Layman's term, it's not so much inflation,

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Speaker 2: but it's the price level. Costs are too high, and

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Speaker 2: wages are not high enough, incomes are not high enough,

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Speaker 2: and having own high enough in the last several years

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Speaker 2: to make ends meet.

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Speaker 1: So what's the recipe for or a solution to the problem.

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Speaker 1: Is it tax cuts? Is that one way of approaching it?

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Speaker 2: That's kind of like a temporary salve and a band

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Speaker 2: aid on things? That would boost disposal income a little bit,

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Speaker 2: but right now, but that would and also that would

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Speaker 2: open a hole in the deficit even wider and cause

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Speaker 2: us to issue even more debt, which eventually will praise

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Speaker 2: even more pressure on interest rates. The way to do

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Speaker 2: it is to enhance productivity and to incentivize companies to

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Speaker 2: invest in the technologies to improve people's productivity. And right now,

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Speaker 2: artificial intelligence seems to have a lot of those ingredients

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Speaker 2: all in one place. And that's why so much hope

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Speaker 2: is being placed into the payoff from artificial intelligence, which

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Speaker 2: in principle could make someone with a high school education

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Speaker 2: as productive as someone with a graduate education.

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Speaker 1: Right now, is there anything to be said for greater

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Speaker 1: urgency when it comes to reshoring? Is that part of

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Speaker 1: the solution as well?

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Speaker 3: Well?

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Speaker 2: That I think has to with having a portfolio approach

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Speaker 2: to American America's economy. That we don't want to so

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Speaker 2: specialize in the service sector and in service industries that

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Speaker 2: we lose our manufacturing base. That's a judgment about safety

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Speaker 2: and soundness of our country, and less so with economics.

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Speaker 2: But if you just talked about efficiency, of course we

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Speaker 2: should specialize in the things that we was sufficient in.

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Speaker 2: But if you want to talk about soundness and safety

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Speaker 2: and national security, then that reshoring and onshore argument comes

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Speaker 2: in big time. And the United State is willing to

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Speaker 2: pay up money in terms of passing subsidies to these

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Speaker 2: high tech industries to bring them back on shore, and

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Speaker 2: that has yet to pay off.

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Speaker 3: Bill.

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Speaker 1: It's always a pleasure. Thanks for making time to chat

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Speaker 1: with us. Billy there. He is the chief economist also

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Speaker 1: executive director at the Milken Institute. Let's get to Sydney.

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Speaker 1: Bring in Bloomberg's Michael Heath. He is an ecogov editor.

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Speaker 1: We're going to be talking now about the latest developments

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Speaker 1: where Israel and Hasbella are concerned. Michael, it's always a pleasure.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for making time to chat with us. I guess

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Speaker 1: both sides are kind of claiming credit, aren't they.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, looks that way, Doug. I mean, as you mentioned earlier,

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Speaker 4: Israel's carried out this preemptive strike with about one hundred

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Speaker 4: jets at five am local time on Sunday, and that

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Speaker 4: preemption has taken place, and then Hesblah has fired about

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Speaker 4: two hundred missiles and various drones as well, which Israel

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Speaker 4: has basically shot down most of them, or they've fallen

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Speaker 4: in areas that are fairly sparsely populated. There has been

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Speaker 4: an Israeli death and some injuries as well, but compared

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Speaker 4: to what was expected, they seem to have really come

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Speaker 4: off quite well there. Hesblar is claiming that this is

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Speaker 4: a victory at home and saying that in fact, Israel's

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Speaker 4: preemptive strike has hit targets that were decoys and this

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Speaker 4: has been a great success, and they're saying this is

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Speaker 4: the end of their first stage of retaliation for the

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Speaker 4: killing of that senior commander by Israeli forces. Israel of

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Speaker 4: course has basically, you know, they've sustained limited damage from this,

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Speaker 4: and it looks like it looks at this stage as

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Speaker 4: though Israel has done pretty well out of this. And

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Speaker 4: again I guess it's a credit to their intelligence community.

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Speaker 4: It's really quite quite amazing.

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Speaker 1: So is it too much to say then that we have,

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Speaker 1: at least in the near term here avoided the prospect

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Speaker 1: of a wider war.

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Speaker 4: Look, you never say never in the Middle East to you,

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Speaker 4: but look, it does look that way that both sides

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Speaker 4: basically say that they've they've had their say here, or

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Speaker 4: they've done their bit. I mean, we're going to see

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Speaker 4: low level fighting continued that's been going on daily on

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Speaker 4: the border. But the idea of a major retaliation from HESBLA,

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Speaker 4: you know, from its Lebanese bases in the days ahead

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Speaker 4: seems highly unlikely. They've said themselves that this is the

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Speaker 4: end of their first stage of the response.

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Speaker 1: So just as a way of kind of framing this,

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Speaker 1: this was a retaliation that was put in motion to

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Speaker 1: kind of answer the assassination of a senior Black commander

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Speaker 1: in Beirut last month. Is that correct?

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Speaker 4: Exactly right? Yes, And it's real tip for tat because

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Speaker 4: obviously hes BLA fad and missile that hit a school

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Speaker 4: sports field in Israel, and that's what prompted Israel's targeting

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Speaker 4: of that senior commander. And then I mean, this commander

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Speaker 4: is obviously very very high up, a very senior official there.

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Speaker 4: I mean, he was connected to the bombing in the

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Speaker 4: bombing against US, the US in the early eighties in Lebanon,

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Speaker 4: so he's a fairly senior official. So that's why Hezbollah

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Speaker 4: was responding so strongly.

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Speaker 1: Is there the expectation that this could impact some of

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Speaker 1: the negotiations that are taking place in Cairo now trying

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Speaker 1: to create a ceasefire in Gaza? Is that likely?

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Speaker 4: Look, it looks like that they've been kept separate. I mean,

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Speaker 4: the talks went ahead on Sunday, Israeli officials went across there.

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Speaker 4: There's a Hamas official who was in Cairo, not directly

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Speaker 4: at the talks. Now there's reports and nothing's been started. Publicly,

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Speaker 4: there's reports that they've have broken up without any agreement

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Speaker 4: and sort of hummus at least blaming Israel for not

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Speaker 4: wanting you to come to the party kind of thing.

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Speaker 4: But then we've got reports also of the US saying, look,

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Speaker 4: they are reasonably constructive, but it doesn't look like this

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Speaker 4: hesbla Israel intral You know, the conflict there has had

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Speaker 4: any particular impact on those talks. They still seem to

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Speaker 4: be deadlocked on the same basic issues that have held

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Speaker 4: them up for the past two or three months.

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Speaker 1: So what is the assessment then on the ability for

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Speaker 1: these sides to come together and reach a ceasefire? Are

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Speaker 1: we closer now than at any other time that we

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Speaker 1: have been?

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Speaker 4: Look, yes, I mean one, I think there was a

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Speaker 4: lot more hope in the Biden administration that potentially by

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Speaker 4: now we'd have a deal, and the US is putting

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Speaker 4: a positive gloss on it. I mean, Biden administration is right.

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Speaker 4: There's only so much time that left for these hostages.

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Speaker 4: I mean they've been in a very difficult situation for

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Speaker 4: ten months now. But at the same time, the sort

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Speaker 4: of protracted dispute of Israel wanted to keep control of

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Speaker 4: this Philadelphia line between the border with Egypt and Gaza

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Speaker 4: to stop weapons smuggling, wanting to keep troops that bisect

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Speaker 4: sorry in an area that bisects Gaza to stop fighters

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Speaker 4: from going into the north, and Hannas wanting all his

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Speaker 4: rally troops out of there. They still seemed these issues

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Speaker 4: still seemed to be at the heart of the impasse.

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Speaker 4: So the will will seems to be there, and the

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Speaker 4: US is certainly pushing very very hard. Israel seems to

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Speaker 4: have softened it starts a bit, but there's still no

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Speaker 4: sense of a breakthrough. So yeah, that's that's about the

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Speaker 4: best I can say at this stage. There's certainly the

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Speaker 4: will is there.

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Speaker 1: Michael, will leave it there. It's always a pleasure. Thanks

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Speaker 1: for making time to chat with us. He is Michael Heath,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg ECO GOV editor, Joining US from our studios in Sydney.

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Speaker 1: We welcome our guest, James Abatte. He is managing director.

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Speaker 1: Also the chief investment offs are at Center Asset Management,

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Speaker 1: joining us on the line from here in New York City.

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Speaker 1: James always a pleasure. So it looks like we're going

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Speaker 1: to get this rate cut in September. Big surprise, right,

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Speaker 1: What does that do to your thinking? If anything?

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Speaker 3: Well, one thing Chairman Powell has been is very consistent

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Speaker 3: in his statements that he has data dependent and you know,

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Speaker 3: one of the things that we've articulated and discussed in

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Speaker 3: the past is that the FED would only cut in

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Speaker 3: response to bad news, not ahead of it. And when

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Speaker 3: we look at what happened last week, I think the

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Speaker 3: most important statistic that came out, or the most important

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Speaker 3: piece of information that came out last week ahead of

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Speaker 3: Jackson Hall, was the fact that the Bureau of Labor

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Speaker 3: Statistics essentially erased eight hundred and eighteen thousand jobs that

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Speaker 3: supposedly were created in the statistics between March twenty twenty

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Speaker 3: three and March twenty twenty four. So the whole narrative

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Speaker 3: that you know, strong employment growth was contributing to inflation,

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Speaker 3: which was necessary for higher interest rates is essentially collapsed.

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Speaker 3: So you know, unfortunately, for the last you know, twelve months,

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Speaker 3: you know, the old saying of you know, garbage in,

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Speaker 3: garbage out. You know, the data dependent FED has been

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Speaker 3: relying upon information which has been inadequate or inaccurate. Actually,

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Speaker 3: and you know, just one of the points that we've

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Speaker 3: always talked about in the sense that you know, there's

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Speaker 3: dangers in pure top down investing or reliance upon information

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Speaker 3: because you know, one of the things that we've talked

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Speaker 3: about in the past is, you know, the best creation

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Speaker 3: of information is putting together a mosaic of both bottom

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Speaker 3: up information and top down indicators. And a lot of

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Speaker 3: times the company information is going to be one to

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Speaker 3: two quarters in advance. And when we talked about about

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Speaker 3: a month ago, you know, going bullish on long term treasuries,

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Speaker 3: so the first time in probably forever, you know, we

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Speaker 3: did it because what we're seeing on a bottom up

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Speaker 3: basis was CATBEX budgets being curtailed x AI, you know, increased,

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Speaker 3: the layoffs, structuring charges increasing, and new initiatives actually being

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Speaker 3: announced by many companies, and we could see the slowdown

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Speaker 3: happening across you know, most of the companies we were researching.

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Speaker 1: Do you have a sense of how overly restrictive rates

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Speaker 1: have been. I mean, to your point about the BLS

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Speaker 1: adjustment and eight hundred thousand fewer jobs created over the

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Speaker 1: last year, I mean, are we at a critical juncture

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Speaker 1: now where we can agree maybe that the FED has

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Speaker 1: been kind of restricting things to such a degree that

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Speaker 1: we're right now maybe going to see not a soft landing,

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Speaker 1: but something that is a little harder.

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Speaker 3: It's too early to tell. And clearly, let's let's remember

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Speaker 3: the FED is now pivoting toward an easing cycle while

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Speaker 3: inflation remains above two percent. And I think this is

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Speaker 3: the real wildcard, is that perhaps it's stay sticky at

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Speaker 3: around three percent, which means a higher or low. So

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Speaker 3: the FED obviously has to meet its dual mandate, which

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Speaker 3: is targeting both inflation and employment. So you know, from

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Speaker 3: that perspective, we are at the point now where the

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Speaker 3: FED might be essentially continuing to ease. And I think

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Speaker 3: one of the things the Fed doesn't want to do

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Speaker 3: is take a step. Some have said that it doesn't

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Speaker 3: want to take one step. It wants to march, meaning

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Speaker 3: that it wants to and you know, go ahead with

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Speaker 3: a series of rate cuts, and frankly, the real pressure

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Speaker 3: when you look at interest rates hasn't been at corporations.

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Speaker 3: It's really been in the real estate sector, and that's

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Speaker 3: where most of the pressure has been. So this is

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Speaker 3: going to be really a you know, an alleviation towards

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Speaker 3: the community banks, regional banks, and the real estate sector

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Speaker 3: more than it is really going to be a pocket

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Speaker 3: bush pocket issue for most consumers because it's not yet

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Speaker 3: going to trickle down yet into auto loans and credit cards,

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Speaker 3: you know, to any great degree.

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Speaker 1: Let's circle back and talk a little bit about CAPEX

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Speaker 1: that you alluded to. Particularly is it related to artificial intelligence?

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Speaker 1: And I think that's been the big question. When are

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Speaker 1: we going to see ROI on AI in video? Will

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Speaker 1: rep poured after the bell on Wednesday? What are we

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Speaker 1: going to learn from the in Vidia story here or

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Speaker 1: at least the numbers on in video.

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Speaker 3: Well, what we're going to see is that in Vidia

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Speaker 3: is probably going to double its sales again a year

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Speaker 3: of a year basis, and they're going to see you know,

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Speaker 3: exceptional operating leverage. And you know, that's really been the

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Speaker 3: case across the board for earnings. If you look at

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Speaker 3: the S and P five hundred, you know, we've had

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Speaker 3: in the second quarter year over year five percent revenue

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Speaker 3: growth but twelve percent earnings growth, which is demonstrating exceptional

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Speaker 3: operating leverage. But it's been concentrated in the largest cap

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Speaker 3: stocks and there hasn't been yet broadening out. And to

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Speaker 3: your point specifically about AI, what you're starting to see

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Speaker 3: is the companies such as Amazon, Meta and others is

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Speaker 3: a you know, shift back where there's something we've written

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Speaker 3: about since the beginning of the year, which is that

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Speaker 3: when of the CFO is going to come to the

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Speaker 3: table and start demanding some degree of return on investment

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Speaker 3: on the AI investment that these companies are making. And

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Speaker 3: I think as you've seen these companies, you have to

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Speaker 3: look at it from the cycle, right. The Magnificent Seven

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Speaker 3: had an exceptional period during the pandemic and for twenty

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Speaker 3: twenty one where they were really the only game in

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Speaker 3: town in terms of sales growth and generating tremendous operating leverage.

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Speaker 3: Then they invested too much thinking that it was going

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Speaker 3: to continue, which is what resulted in twenty twenty two.

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Speaker 3: And now we've had essentially a period of time where

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Speaker 3: they've enjoyed that operating leverage again. But now the heavy

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Speaker 3: cap beck spending by the Amazons, metas, alphabets, et cetera

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Speaker 3: are leading them back to a point where cash flow

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Speaker 3: returns are not what the market is expecting. That's leading

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Speaker 3: to some rotation in the market away from the Magnificent seven.

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Speaker 3: But these stocks are still doing exceptionally well. These companies

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Speaker 3: are doing very well. So it turns in basically the

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Speaker 3: market performers away from being I think the only game

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Speaker 3: in town over the last eighteen months or so.

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Speaker 1: So I think we can agree that the political season

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Speaker 1: is going to pick up in earnest after Labor Day.

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Speaker 1: You've heard kind of the Republican side may be a

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Speaker 1: little thin on policy, and I think the same is

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Speaker 1: true where the Democrats are concerned. How is the political

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Speaker 1: race at the presidential level going to impact the equity market,

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Speaker 1: do you think?

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Speaker 3: I think the one thing that we can hone in

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Speaker 3: on is the fact that let's look at corporate tax rates,

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Speaker 3: because when you think about, you know, the two policies

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Speaker 3: that both parties have put forth. So let's remember President

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Speaker 3: Trump lowered the corporate tax rate down to twenty one

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Speaker 3: percent in twenty seventeen, which was part of the tax

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Speaker 3: cuts and job back. That's permanent, so that does not

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Speaker 3: expire in twenty twenty five like many of the other

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Speaker 3: initiatives that were in the twenty seventeen Tax Act. So

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Speaker 3: what we have now is Vice President Harris, candidate Harris

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Speaker 3: now proposing to increase the corporate tax rate to twenty

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Speaker 3: eight percent. Now, people say, okay, well, what does this

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Speaker 3: really mean, Because if you look at the average company

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Speaker 3: in the S and P. Five hundred, just to do

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Speaker 3: a little bit of math, if you look at the

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Speaker 3: effective rate, it fell from about twenty five percent in

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Speaker 3: twenty seventeen down to about eighteen percent now, which has

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Speaker 3: led to about one percent improvement in profit margins. And

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Speaker 3: let's not forget profit margin expansion has been, you know,

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Speaker 3: a significant component of earnings growth over the last two

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Speaker 3: decades and very important over the last few years, and

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Speaker 3: in fact over a longer period of time. It's contributed

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Speaker 3: to half of the growth in real earnings over that

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Speaker 3: period of time. So if you kind of just do

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Speaker 3: very simple math, you know, increasing the tax rate to

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Speaker 3: twenty eight percent, which is what candidate Harris is proposing,

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Speaker 3: it would essentially reduce profit margins by about one point

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Speaker 3: two percent, so it's going to be significant in terms

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Speaker 3: of the negative impact to earnings.

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Speaker 1: James, it's always a pleasure. We'll leave it there. Thank

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Speaker 1: you so much for joining us. James the body managing

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Speaker 1: director also the chief investment officer at Center Asset Management.

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Speaker 1: So the Democratic Convention is now firmly in the rear view,

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Speaker 1: and we are told the campaign of Vice President Harris

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Speaker 1: and its affiliates have raised a total or did raise

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Speaker 1: a total of about eighty two million during the week

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Speaker 1: of the convention in Chicago, and that pushes their total

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Speaker 1: fundraising haul too. Are you ready for this five hundred

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Speaker 1: and forty million dollars that was since President Biden stepped aside.

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Speaker 1: Joining us now for a conversation on this fact is

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Speaker 1: Amy Dacy, executive director at American University's sign Institute of

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Speaker 1: Policy and Politics. And Amy is also the former CEO

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Speaker 1: of the DNC. Good of you to make time for

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Speaker 1: us on a Sunday here in the States. This is

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Speaker 1: a pretty impressive pivot. I think that the Democrats were

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Speaker 1: able to achieve in what about a month since President

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Speaker 1: Biden stepped aside. They were able to capture this much

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Speaker 1: capital kind of squirrel it away for the campaign. But

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Speaker 1: everything seemed to go so well for this convention. The

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Speaker 1: type of planning that has to be involved in an

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Speaker 1: event like this, if you had to grade the DNC,

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Speaker 1: what would you give them?

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Speaker 5: Amy they definitely got, you know, a problem potentially even

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Speaker 5: at a plus this week. I think they definitely understood

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Speaker 5: the assignment DOUG. I mean they came out of this

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Speaker 5: convention with money, a type, message, and momentum. Those are

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Speaker 5: the three things that you want to and conventions take

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Speaker 5: over a year and a half to kind of put together.

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Speaker 5: A month and a half ago, they were changing, you know,

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Speaker 5: who was going to be top of the ticket. So

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Speaker 5: I think the ability to really have a tight messaging arm,

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Speaker 5: to have incredible surrogates, to have the speeches come, and

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Speaker 5: you know, as you mentioned, just the money and the

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Speaker 5: resources coming out of this. She even raised forty million

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Speaker 5: since her speech on Thursday night. So these three factors

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Speaker 5: are really going to help them into this final stretch

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Speaker 5: toward the general election.

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Speaker 1: So if you were still in a leadership role at

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Speaker 1: the DNC, how would you advise the committee or whoever

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Speaker 1: is involved in pulling the pro strings and spending this money.

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Speaker 1: What should be the focus? How should that capital be deployed?

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Speaker 5: Well, I think, you know, there's there's various ways that

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Speaker 5: these resources are spent. Mostly, you know, it's all about

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Speaker 5: having a conversation with the voters. I think that they're

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Speaker 5: investing directly into some of these battleground states so they

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Speaker 5: can have that voter you know, to voter contact, to

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Speaker 5: reach out whether it's on the doors, on the phone,

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Speaker 5: or through social media. I think they're also going to

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Speaker 5: have ads, you know, that kind of help to amplify

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Speaker 5: the message we saw coming out of the convention, and

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Speaker 5: to not only do that, but then contrast the Harris

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Speaker 5: Walls ticket with the Trump Vance ticket and hold them

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Speaker 5: accountable certainly to any misinformation they feel that their opponents

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Speaker 5: are putting out there. But I also think that they're

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Speaker 5: looking at the map. There are states that are now

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00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 5: you know, questionably are they in play. They're spending time

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00:22:50,800 --> 00:22:54,600
Speaker 5: in Georgia, the question about whether North Carolina is closer

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00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:57,920
Speaker 5: than it was viewed you know, months ago. So I think,

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00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,240
Speaker 5: you know, as always you follow where they candidate that's

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00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,159
Speaker 5: are going and where the money is being spent. But

444
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:04,520
Speaker 5: I think those are the key things that they'll be

445
00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:07,880
Speaker 5: investing in. I think they'll also try to make sure

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00:23:07,880 --> 00:23:11,200
Speaker 5: that they're reaching out to certain communities, you know that's

447
00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:14,880
Speaker 5: issue specific, whether it's you know, into the black community,

448
00:23:15,000 --> 00:23:19,680
Speaker 5: Hispanic community, the LGBT community, women, young people. They'll target

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00:23:19,720 --> 00:23:23,800
Speaker 5: those different communities through various forms of communication, whether it's

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00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:28,040
Speaker 5: on social media, in some of the traditional media outlets, newspapers,

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00:23:28,040 --> 00:23:31,359
Speaker 5: you know, on the air that can get to you know,

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00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:34,200
Speaker 5: micro target and get to these voters to make sure

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00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:38,480
Speaker 5: they they you know, are not only you know, feeling

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00:23:38,920 --> 00:23:42,920
Speaker 5: a momentum, but also to reach those independent or undecided

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00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 5: voters in these key battleground states.

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Speaker 1: It's kind of interesting because traditionally, Labor Day is the

457
00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:53,879
Speaker 1: marker during which time we kind of pivot away from summer,

458
00:23:54,080 --> 00:23:57,040
Speaker 1: we move to the fall, and in the presidential election year,

459
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Speaker 1: i mean, things go full on right through to early November.

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00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:03,399
Speaker 1: One of the things that you kind of alluded to

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00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,560
Speaker 1: putting Vice President Harris kind of in a position where

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00:24:06,560 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 1: she would be on tour, especially in some of these

463
00:24:09,320 --> 00:24:14,040
Speaker 1: swing state places. But I'm wondering about how to balance

464
00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,440
Speaker 1: that if you're talking about or a debate that happens,

465
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 1: what September tenth or twelfth, twelfth is I can't remember

466
00:24:21,359 --> 00:24:23,200
Speaker 1: the exact date, but the time that she's going to

467
00:24:23,280 --> 00:24:26,879
Speaker 1: need to prepare for debate, how do you negotiate that?

468
00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:30,520
Speaker 5: Well, I think you have to definitely devise some time

469
00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,080
Speaker 5: for the debate. She certainly has much experience, you know,

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00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:38,760
Speaker 5: in debating, but you know, what we've seen is whether

471
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,760
Speaker 5: it was her presidential bit originally in twenty twenty or

472
00:24:41,880 --> 00:24:43,639
Speaker 5: you know, when she became part of the ticket as

473
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 5: vice president, she's got that national level debating experience, but

474
00:24:47,200 --> 00:24:49,440
Speaker 5: you do have to put time aside to prepare. She

475
00:24:49,520 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 5: has a different person across the podium from her. But

476
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,439
Speaker 5: I think the other thing you saw coming out of

477
00:24:54,440 --> 00:24:57,080
Speaker 5: the convention, and what I've heard since the convention is

478
00:24:57,119 --> 00:24:59,320
Speaker 5: the amazing amount of surrogates we have out there now.

479
00:24:59,359 --> 00:25:02,000
Speaker 5: Of course, you want the candidate in these battleground states,

480
00:25:02,320 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 5: but we've got you know, certainly heard that there's more

481
00:25:06,080 --> 00:25:08,800
Speaker 5: House members who have been asked to and are willing

482
00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:11,919
Speaker 5: to be sarrogates. We saw some of the key spokespeople

483
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 5: who were on the dias you know, at the convention.

484
00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:19,479
Speaker 5: They'll also be out there, you know, at events, you know,

485
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:22,520
Speaker 5: sending messages through social media and other things, so she'll

486
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,439
Speaker 5: spend that time preparing for the debate and everything that

487
00:25:25,520 --> 00:25:27,960
Speaker 5: has to go with it. But she will be you know,

488
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:31,240
Speaker 5: in Georgia. We'll see the other states that they map

489
00:25:31,280 --> 00:25:33,600
Speaker 5: out for her as well, and then I think you'll

490
00:25:33,640 --> 00:25:38,200
Speaker 5: see there's no lack of incredible surrogates that are really

491
00:25:38,240 --> 00:25:43,000
Speaker 5: trying to amplify the Harris Walls ticket out there very quickly.

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00:25:42,800 --> 00:25:45,080
Speaker 1: I mean about forty seconds or so. The degree to

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00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:48,959
Speaker 1: which the Democrats right now are prepping themselves for an

494
00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:54,000
Speaker 1: onslaught in terms of whether it's coming from their surrogates

495
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:57,439
Speaker 1: or from an ad campaign from the GOP side. Do

496
00:25:57,480 --> 00:26:00,440
Speaker 1: you think that they've really firmly established a war room

497
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:03,600
Speaker 1: here to guard against those incoming lobs.

498
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:08,080
Speaker 5: Yeah, this has all been orchestrated long before there was

499
00:26:08,119 --> 00:26:11,879
Speaker 5: the switch and Vice President Harris became the nominee. The DNC,

500
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:14,400
Speaker 5: as one of their main things, has a research arm,

501
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,639
Speaker 5: has certainly an ability to do that fact checking and

502
00:26:17,680 --> 00:26:21,000
Speaker 5: get the record straight. So that infrastructure has been in place,

503
00:26:21,040 --> 00:26:23,240
Speaker 5: I think it'll certainly be amplified in the days to

504
00:26:23,280 --> 00:26:25,639
Speaker 5: come as more people are paying attention to the election.

505
00:26:25,920 --> 00:26:26,200
Speaker 4: Amy.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for chatting with us. Amy dacy There executive director

507
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 1: at American University sign Institute of Policy and Politics. She's

508
00:26:33,760 --> 00:26:37,280
Speaker 1: also a former CEO of the d n C, joining

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00:26:37,320 --> 00:26:40,520
Speaker 1: us here on Daybreak Asia. This has been the Bloomberg

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00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:43,879
Speaker 1: Daybreak Asia podcast, bringing you the stories making news and

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00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:47,480
Speaker 1: moving markets in the Asia Pacific. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast

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Speaker 1: channel on YouTube to get more episodes of this and

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Speaker 1: other shows from Bloomberg. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

514
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Speaker 1: or anywhere else you listen, and always on Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Terminal, and Bloomberg Business app.

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Speaker 2: HMM