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Speaker 1: This is the l Podcast with your host JJ Zachersa

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Speaker 1: JJ Zacharison. What's up everyone. It's JJ Zacharieson, the editor

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Speaker 1: in chief over at number fire dot com and this

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Speaker 1: is episode thirty three of the Late Round podcast, one

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Speaker 1: of the many shows that are part of the number

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Speaker 1: fire podcast network. Thanks for tuning in. I sent out

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Speaker 1: an innocent tweet on Sunday night that said, what's the

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Speaker 1: argument for Rob Kelly this year? I genuinely wanted to

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Speaker 1: know because I kind of assumed that samajp Ryan's average

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Speaker 1: draft position would be a lot higher than it is

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Speaker 1: at this point in the offseason. You've got a good

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Speaker 1: offense that should score a decent amount of points in Washington,

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Speaker 1: and the starting running back Rob Kelly is basically a

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Speaker 1: fullback who ran the ball three hundred and eighteen times

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Speaker 1: for and seventy yards and six touchdowns in four years

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Speaker 1: at TWU Lane. He had a four point zero yards

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Speaker 1: per carry average at TWU Lane. During his final season there,

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Speaker 1: he was out attempted by Dontrell Hilliard and Sherman Batty,

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Speaker 1: who exactly Now, I'm not the type of analyst who

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Speaker 1: clings onto college production for years and years. Despite that

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Speaker 1: unproductive college player being productive at an NFL level. We've

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Speaker 1: seen players who don't do a ton in college do

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Speaker 1: something in the NFL. If that weren't the case, then

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Speaker 1: we'd never see undrafted free agents become something. But I

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Speaker 1: also want to be cognizant of outliers, which Rob Kelly

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Speaker 1: would have to be in order to be a truly

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Speaker 1: productive asset in the NFL. As it stands, Kelly is

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Speaker 1: the starter in Washington, So when I asked that question,

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Speaker 1: the majority of responses included that in the answer to

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Speaker 1: be fair, though I'd expect that to be the case.

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Speaker 1: He was at least reliable from the standpoint that he

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Speaker 1: didn't give up the ball like Matt Jones did for

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Speaker 1: Washington last year, and his competition is a receiving back

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Speaker 1: in Chris Thompson as well as a rookie. Why would

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Speaker 1: he not be at the top of the depth chart.

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Speaker 1: The other response to the question was that Kelly wasn't

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Speaker 1: all that bad for Washington last year, but I don't

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Speaker 1: know if I really agree with that. Last season, Kelly

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Speaker 1: got his first big start against Cincinnati in Week eight,

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Speaker 1: where he ran the ball twenty one times for eighty

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Speaker 1: seven yards. He then saw double digit carries in eight

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Speaker 1: of his final nine games. That type of volume made

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Speaker 1: him an RB two in fantasy over that stretch, because

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Speaker 1: you basically need to have a pulse while getting volume

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Speaker 1: to be an RB two in fantasy football. Kelly's success rate,

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Speaker 1: a metric we use at number five that determines the

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Speaker 1: percentage of positive expected point runs a running back gets,

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Speaker 1: was just thirty seven point five percent last year. That

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Speaker 1: was the worst rate of any Washington back, and that

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Speaker 1: includes Matt Jones, who was far better than anyone gave

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Speaker 1: him credit for last season. He just couldn't hold onto

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Speaker 1: the ball. On top of this, his production fell as

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Speaker 1: the season went on last year. You may credit that

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Speaker 1: to just random variance, which is super valid, but you

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Speaker 1: could also potentially say that it has to do with

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Speaker 1: the fact that he's not an every down back, and

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Speaker 1: he's never been in every down back. During Kelly's first

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Speaker 1: three starts, he carried the ball sixty seven times for

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Speaker 1: three hundred and twenty one yards, good for a four

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Speaker 1: point seven to nine yards per carry average. Over his

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Speaker 1: final six games, he toted the rock eighty four times

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Speaker 1: for a three point three to three yards per carry average.

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Speaker 1: Maybe that's variance, but maybe that's a body breaking down.

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Speaker 1: This all leads me to Samaj p Ryan. He's RB

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Speaker 1: thirty four according to Fantasy Football Calculator dot COM's ADP data,

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Speaker 1: while Rob Kelly is RB thirty eight. Now, I know

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Speaker 1: MFL ten data might not say the same thing, and

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Speaker 1: maybe another draft that you did doesn't say the same

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Speaker 1: thing either. The discrepancy is probably larger. But I'm trying

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Speaker 1: to speak to a bigger audience here and how home

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Speaker 1: drafts might go when the ADP is that tight, and

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Speaker 1: when you're in the middle rounds, I have no idea

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Speaker 1: why you wouldn't just go for the ambiguous rookie who

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Speaker 1: smashes the incumbent from a production profile and athleticism standpoint,

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Speaker 1: I don't even like Samaj p Ryan as a prospect either.

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Speaker 1: He was a below average runner in my model. But

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Speaker 1: we're also comparing p Ryan to a player who profiles

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Speaker 1: like Matt Asciata. And we're also comparing p Ryan to

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Speaker 1: a player we know won't be catching a ton of

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Speaker 1: passes out of the backfield, especially with Chris Thompson there.

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Speaker 1: I get it. Chris Thompson's presence in that situation as

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Speaker 1: a whole may not lead to any of these backs

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Speaker 1: being very viable in fantasy football. I don't even disagree

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Speaker 1: with that, But why would you not go for the

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Speaker 1: guy who at least has some semblance of a profile

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Speaker 1: that looks like a lead back at the NFL or

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Speaker 1: the guy who, since he's a rookie, might have upside

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Speaker 1: that wasn't fully understood during the evaluation process. Because I'm

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Speaker 1: going to be wrong and so are you, and the

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Speaker 1: probability of me being wrong about a player like Samaj

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Speaker 1: p Ryan is going to be a lot greater than

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Speaker 1: the probability of me being wrong about a player like

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Speaker 1: Rob Kelly, because Samaj p Ryan is objectively a better

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Speaker 1: prospect than Rob Kelly is. Here's my final take on

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Speaker 1: this Kelly thing, though. If there's a huge discrepancy in

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Speaker 1: your league between the two guys and Kelly is like

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Speaker 1: an eleventh rounder while p Ryan is a sixth rounder,

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Speaker 1: then sure I get it, snag Rob Kelly. But if

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Speaker 1: their ADPs are closer together in any way, let alone

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Speaker 1: close together in the middle or later rounds, I have

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Speaker 1: no clue why you would not want to draft samajp

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Speaker 1: Ryn over Rob Kelly, And the reason I bring all

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Speaker 1: this up is because pe Ryan was actually one of

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Speaker 1: the thirteen players in an article I did over on

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Speaker 1: Number five this past week on the most underrated players

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Speaker 1: in Fantasy football drafts. I'm going to rank those players

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Speaker 1: on today's podcast from ten to one, so a few

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Speaker 1: of them will be knocked off the list, and that

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Speaker 1: includes p Ryan because I don't think he's as much

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Speaker 1: of a screaming bargain as some of these other players.

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Speaker 1: But this specific show will look a lot like what

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Speaker 1: I'm going to be doing in season. There's less evergreen

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Speaker 1: stuff to be done then, and you thirsty listeners want

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Speaker 1: specific player analysis and game theory advice for the current season.

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Speaker 1: I know this this show will be a lot like,

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Speaker 1: for instance, the fifteen transaction show that I plan on

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Speaker 1: doing each Tuesday during the regular season. So after you're

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Speaker 1: done listening to me talk about these ten players, I'd

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Speaker 1: love to hear what you think. Hit me up on

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Speaker 1: Twitter at late round QB and let me know. But

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Speaker 1: without further ado, let's start things up by looking at

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Speaker 1: the tenth most underrated player and fantasy drafts this year.

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Speaker 1: At number ten, I've got Pierre Garson. I'm really not

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Speaker 1: into the Kyle Shanahan feeding his top receiver narrative like

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Speaker 1: I talked about on the last show, but Garsan is

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Speaker 1: going to be peppered with targets in the forty nine

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Speaker 1: ers offense this year, and I do think he has

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Speaker 1: a realistic one hundred and forty to one hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty targets ceiling in the offense. That alone makes him

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Speaker 1: well worth a wide receiver thirty nine price tag. The

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Speaker 1: downside with Garson is scoring as much as I think

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Speaker 1: Brian Hoyer is underrated as a real passer. The last

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Speaker 1: time he and Shanahan were together, that was back in

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Speaker 1: twenty fourteen with the Browns, Cleveland threw just twelve touchdowns

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Speaker 1: all season long. Even with a hefty market share in

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Speaker 1: the scoring department, Garson could struggle to find the end zone.

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Speaker 1: That's especially true when you consider that Garson's never been

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Speaker 1: much of a scorer, as he's never scored more than

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Speaker 1: six times in a single season. I like Garson a lot,

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Speaker 1: but I do know that there are fantasy experts out

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Speaker 1: there who like him even more than I do. Nevertheless,

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Speaker 1: he's a good value according to Fantasy football calculator dot

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Speaker 1: COM's ADP Jaquiz Rodgers comes in at number nine, and

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Speaker 1: for some you may have to change the way that

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Speaker 1: your brain thinks about fantasy football to comprehend this one fully.

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Speaker 1: As I always say, fantasy football is a weekly game,

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Speaker 1: it's not a yearly one. With Doug Martin suspended for

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Speaker 1: three games to start the year, Quiz is more than

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Speaker 1: likely going to be the dude who carries the load

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Speaker 1: for the Bucks. In five games in which he saw

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Speaker 1: a large market share of the team's carries last year,

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Speaker 1: so I'm looking at games with fifteen or more attempts,

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Speaker 1: he tallied four hundred and sixty two rushing yards in

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Speaker 1: a four point three two yards per carry average, finishing

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Speaker 1: as a top eighteen fantasy running back, and four of

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Speaker 1: those contests he was very good last year. Among the

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Speaker 1: sixty nine nice running backs with fifty or more attempts

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Speaker 1: a season ago, Rogers was eleventh and success rate Doug Martin, meanwhile,

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Speaker 1: was fifty eighth, Peyton Barber was fifty ninth, and Charles

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Speaker 1: Simms was sixty fifth. That's a pretty significant difference. Zero

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Speaker 1: r beers should love him because he's a cheap early

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Speaker 1: season starter, but I also think there's a possibility that

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Speaker 1: Doug Martin comes back and Doug Martin is the Martin

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Speaker 1: of old. I know reports are saying the opposite, and

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Speaker 1: I'm certainly not banking on that fact. I'm just banking

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Speaker 1: on Rogers being the starter there for three weeks, which

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Speaker 1: still makes him a value in and of itself at

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Speaker 1: his ADP. But the upside is there if Martin is

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Speaker 1: his twenty sixteen self, and that makes Jaquiz Rogers an

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Speaker 1: even more enticing option. At number eight on the most

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Speaker 1: Underrated list, I've got Kenny Britt because Kenny Britt is

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Speaker 1: very good at football. Can I just leave the analysis

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Speaker 1: at that? In all seriousness, it was amazing that Britt

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Speaker 1: was able to be competent and useful with Jared Goff

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Speaker 1: under center last season. Britt was so good last season

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Speaker 1: that he actually posted close to the same yards after

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Speaker 1: the catch per catch rate as Tevon Austin, despite the

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Speaker 1: fact that his air yards per catch average was more

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Speaker 1: than two and a half times the size of Austin's.

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Speaker 1: In other words, even though Britt was catching passes down

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Speaker 1: the field, he was doing close to as much after

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Speaker 1: the catch as Tavon Austin was. When it's far easier

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Speaker 1: to do that closer to the line of scrimmage where

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Speaker 1: Tevon Austin was. That's partially because tave On Austin might

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Speaker 1: not be very good, but I think is just as much,

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Speaker 1: if not more, of Britt being very strong. Now he's

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Speaker 1: in Cleveland, where the situation is a tad better from

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Speaker 1: a passing perspective, and he should be able to capture

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Speaker 1: between twenty two to twenty five percent of the team's

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Speaker 1: mark share given the weapons and the inexperienced weapons in

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Speaker 1: that offense. Why that high of a market share, Well,

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Speaker 1: Corey Coleman's pro rated market share alongside Terrell Pryors last

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Speaker 1: year would have hit the forty five ish percent range,

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Speaker 1: so it only makes sense for Coleman and Britt to

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Speaker 1: be along those same lines. That means you're getting one

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Speaker 1: hundred and thirty or so targets at wide receiver fifty three,

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Speaker 1: which is absurd even in an offense with questionable albeit

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Speaker 1: very underrated quarterback play. That's right, I'm on Team Cody Kessler.

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Speaker 1: The first and only quarterback on this list is actually

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Speaker 1: not Andy Dalton, who I've touted a bit on the

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Speaker 1: show and on the interweb. Instead, I want to talk

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Speaker 1: about Carson Palmer. The main reason for it is because

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Speaker 1: he's going even later than Dalton, and I'm really in

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Speaker 1: love with Palmer's early season schedule. But first, let's just

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Speaker 1: talk about Palmer himself. He was a top five fantasy

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Speaker 1: quarterback two years ago, and that year he totaled a

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Speaker 1: league high twy eight and ninety seven air yards on

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Speaker 1: completed passes. As a result, he threw thirteen touchdowns that

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Speaker 1: traveled fifteen or more yards through the air. Last season,

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Speaker 1: his air yards profile dropped to about twenty six hundred yards,

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Speaker 1: which was still fine in the fourth most in the

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Speaker 1: league thanks to the vertical Bruce Arians offense, but he

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Speaker 1: scored just six touchdowns on throws that went fifteen plus

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Speaker 1: air yards. Doing some aggression analysis on air yards, Palmer

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Speaker 1: should have thrown three point eight more touchdowns on those

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Speaker 1: types of throws last year. Among two hundred and twelve

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Speaker 1: quarterbacks with two hundred or more attempts over the last

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Speaker 1: six years, that's the eleventh largest discrepancy in the wrong direction.

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Speaker 1: So some positive regression or progression, since people get really

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Speaker 1: pissed off when I say positive regression, should be in

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Speaker 1: store for Palmer, especially considering John Brown should be healthy.

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Speaker 1: More on him in a second, though. The main reason

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Speaker 1: I wanted to point out Palmer here, aside from the

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Speaker 1: fact that he's in a good offense that will score

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Speaker 1: points and throw the ball downfield and he's already shown

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Speaker 1: to have upside all good things for fantasy football, is

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Speaker 1: that he has a great early season schedule. The Cardinals

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Speaker 1: open up with the Lions in Week one, then they

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Speaker 1: get the Colts in Week two, than the Cowboys, and

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Speaker 1: then the forty nine ers. All of those should be

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Speaker 1: plus matchups. So if you're a quarterback streamer, you're not

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Speaker 1: just getting a player who has a lot of upside,

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Speaker 1: but you're getting one who who has a nice early

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Speaker 1: season schedule, and that is a beautiful thing. At number

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Speaker 1: six is Sammy Watkins. As much as I hate data extrapolation, Watkins'

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Speaker 1: numbers over the last two years with Tyrod Taylor, on

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Speaker 1: average would have yielded about one hundred and thirteen targets

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Speaker 1: per season, sixty seven receptions one and twenty five yards,

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Speaker 1: and over eight touchdowns. Those are fringe wide receiver one numbers,

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Speaker 1: and those are numbers from a player who's played injured

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Speaker 1: for plenty of weeks with little competition there for volume.

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Speaker 1: If he's healthy, and I get it, that's a big if.

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Speaker 1: Watkins could be in store for a lot of work,

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Speaker 1: and while he's in more of the volatile category like

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Speaker 1: des Bryant weeked week, you can easily make the case

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Speaker 1: that he should be drafted ahead of Dez given Dez's

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Speaker 1: potential in season matchups. This year, Watkins does fall in

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Speaker 1: some drafts, and if he makes it to the late

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Speaker 1: third round, I am all about that life, especially if

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Speaker 1: I have him as a wide receiver two on my

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Speaker 1: squad instead of a wide receiver one. My man Time

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Speaker 1: Montgomery comes in at number five. It's important to note

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Speaker 1: that I do like him more in PPA formats naturally

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Speaker 1: because he's a converted wide receiver playing the running back position.

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Speaker 1: But I do like Time on a lot this year.

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Speaker 1: Last year, he saw at least forty percent of Green

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Speaker 1: Bay snaps in nine of his fifteen games played, and

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Speaker 1: in those games, he averaged seven point eight nine carries,

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Speaker 1: forty nine point five six rushing yards, point three to

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Speaker 1: three rushing touchdowns, five point seven eight targets, four point

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Speaker 1: four to four receptions, and thirty six point one to

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Speaker 1: one receiving yards per contest in PPR formats, that's roughly

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Speaker 1: fifteen fantasy points per outing, which would have made him

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Speaker 1: a top ten running back last year. Montgomery was good

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Speaker 1: from just about any metric that you look at, and

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Speaker 1: he ranked sixteenth in the league last season in success

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Speaker 1: rate among all running backs, which is pretty impressive for

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Speaker 1: a dude who wasn't even a running back to start

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Speaker 1: the season. Some people are worried about Jamal Williams and

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Speaker 1: maybe Aaron Jones, and just so it's out there, my

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Speaker 1: model does like Aaron Jones more than Jamal Williams. But

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Speaker 1: the Packers had no depth chart going into the draft,

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Speaker 1: hence they are three running back draft picks in the

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Speaker 1: later rounds. Montgomery doesn't need a ton of volume to

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Speaker 1: be relevant either, so there's some room for those guys

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Speaker 1: to still get some work given the offense that he's

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Speaker 1: in his performance last year in the honest lack of

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Speaker 1: big competition, I love Montgomery's upside this season in the

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Speaker 1: Packers offense, especially as an RB two in my fantasy squad.

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Speaker 1: I mentioned him earlier, but John Brown comes in at

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Speaker 1: number four on this list. Brown suffered from a sickle

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Speaker 1: cell trait last year, and it definitely showed he had

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Speaker 1: nearly the exact same air yards per catch profile from

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Speaker 1: the previous year. He had ten point four to nine

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Speaker 1: air yards per catch versus ten point four six and

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Speaker 1: twenty sixteen, but his yards after the catch dropped from

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Speaker 1: four point nine to four and twenty fifteen to get

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Speaker 1: this two point seventy nine. That to me is screaming

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Speaker 1: at us, telling us all that he was probably ineffective

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Speaker 1: due to that injury. Like I said with Carson Palmer,

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Speaker 1: the Cardinals offense should score points and with no Michael Floyd,

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Speaker 1: Brown isn't competing with a lot of established dudes for

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Speaker 1: targets in that offense. If he can stay healthy again.

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Speaker 1: This is an if because some beat writers in Arizona

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Speaker 1: are still worried about the sickle cell issue. Brown should

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Speaker 1: be able to eclipse one hundred and ten targets and

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Speaker 1: considering they'll be down the field ones, that makes him

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Speaker 1: a really really good value pick as a later round

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Speaker 1: wide out. Speaking of down the field threats, ted Ginn

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Speaker 1: is getting no love from you guys this season. He

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Speaker 1: comes in at number three on this list. Essentially, even

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Speaker 1: if ted Ginn sees a lower percentage of his team's

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Speaker 1: targets in New Orleans versus what he saw in Carolina.

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Speaker 1: It should balance out with what he did in Carolina,

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Speaker 1: given the Saints haven't thrown the ball fewer than six

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Speaker 1: hundred times since Barack Obama's first year in office. One

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Speaker 1: hundred targets is actually very in reach for gin with

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Speaker 1: Brandon Cook's gone. In fact, I have Genn currently projected

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Speaker 1: for almost one hundred targets with a fifteen percent market

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Speaker 1: share in that offense. The team that he's on is

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Speaker 1: a dream for what he does. He's a deep threat,

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Speaker 1: and Drew Brees was eighth in the NFL last season

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Speaker 1: and pass attempts that traveled fifteen or more yards through

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Speaker 1: the air, ending the season with the most passing yards

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Speaker 1: in football on those types of throws. And this is

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Speaker 1: not anything new. He's been in the top four in

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Speaker 1: deep ballyards since twenty eleven. So not only is gin

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Speaker 1: going to see a decent amount of volume if he

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Speaker 1: can stay healthy, but he has Drew Brees. He's the

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Speaker 1: deep ball specialist tossing him the rock. I love this

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Speaker 1: fit for Ted Ginn and I think he's going to

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Speaker 1: be far more viable in fantasy football than his ADP

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Speaker 1: currently suggests. Number two on the list of most underrated

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Speaker 1: players is my favorite breakout tight end candidate, and that's

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Speaker 1: Eric Ebron. Ebron's been far better than most give him

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Speaker 1: credit for so far in his career, and despite scoring

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Speaker 1: just a single touchdown last year, he was still a

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Speaker 1: usable low end tight end one in PPR formats. He

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Speaker 1: would have been a higher end tight end two in

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Speaker 1: most other seasons, but with one touchdown, there's nothing wrong

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Speaker 1: with that. A huge reason I like Ebron, aside from

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Speaker 1: the fact that he's done a lot in the league

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Speaker 1: at a young age, is that Ankwon Bolden's gone. Bolden

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Speaker 1: played the majority of his snaps from the slot last year,

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Speaker 1: and he actually finished second in the league in red

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Speaker 1: zone targets and third in targets from within the opponent's

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Speaker 1: ten yard line. With Ebron playing in that area of

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Speaker 1: the field, despite the fact that he's never been a

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Speaker 1: huge touchdown scorer, including college, you have to be a

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Speaker 1: little intrigued. That's on top of the fact that they

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Speaker 1: don't necessarily have a locked in red zone threat in

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Speaker 1: that offense, and Detroit Outlets are all talking about him

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Speaker 1: playing a bigger role in the red zone as well.

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Speaker 1: We see tight ends breakout all of the time in

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Speaker 1: fantasy football, especially athletic tight ends, and of the later

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Speaker 1: round guys this season, I think Ebron's the best bet

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Speaker 1: in that Lion's offense. My number one dude is the

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Speaker 1: most undervalued. Is the most boring, logical, stupid pick possible.

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Speaker 1: I talked about him on last week's Mailbag episode, and

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Speaker 1: it's Frank Gore. No, it's doubtful that Gore will be

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Speaker 1: a quote league winner for your squad this year, but

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Speaker 1: what even is a league winner? Gore is still very

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Speaker 1: usable in fantasy football, and his depressed ADP just doesn't

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Speaker 1: make a whole lot of sense. Last year, Gore was

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Speaker 1: thirteenth and top twelve performances at the running back position,

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Speaker 1: eighth and top eighteen ones, and eighth and top twenty

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Speaker 1: four RB two performances among all running backs. He was

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Speaker 1: basically a high end RB two at worst. This year,

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Speaker 1: his average draft position is in the seventh round as

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Speaker 1: RB thirty three. Even though the Colts only selected Marlon

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Speaker 1: Mack during the draft, who might honestly end up being

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Speaker 1: more of a scat back at the NFL level, Gore

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Speaker 1: doesn't have competition, and he's led the league in attempts

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Speaker 1: over the last two years combined, and he's already broken

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Speaker 1: the age curve. Guys, the discount on Gore right now

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Speaker 1: one million percent has to do with his age, but

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Speaker 1: he's already in elite company when it comes to age.

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Speaker 1: At thirty three, he carried the ball two hundred and

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Speaker 1: sixty three times, the fifth highest total for any running

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Speaker 1: back age thirty three year older. And he hit the

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Speaker 1: one thousand yard mark last year too, becoming the third

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Speaker 1: running back to do so at thirty three years or older.

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Speaker 1: If this is the year that Frank Gore finally falls apart,

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Speaker 1: then so be it. I spent a seventh or eighth

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Speaker 1: rounder on the guy. It's really not that big of

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Speaker 1: a deal. But let's also not forget that we've been

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Speaker 1: talking about it being Frank Gor's last year since before

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Speaker 1: the song Gungam Style came out. That's it for the list, though, Guys, again,

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Speaker 1: i'd love feedback on this format, so send any feedback

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Speaker 1: over to me on Twitter at late Round QB. And

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Speaker 1: while you do that, please do me a huge favor

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Speaker 1: and subscribe to the show on iTunes. Stitch your SoundCloud

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Speaker 1: and Google Play and leave a review. It helps me

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Speaker 1: out tremendously. Back in your ears on Friday with a

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Speaker 1: Mailbag episode everyone until then, Draft Frank Gore