Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to Fantasy Pros MLB. This is the
Speaker 1: Fantasy Baseball Podcast. It is me Joey p joe Pisapia
Speaker 1: with me of course is the Welsh. And it's time
Speaker 1: to hit the guides. That's right, it's time for the
Speaker 1: Ultimate infield Guide. We're gonna go through the positions, give
Speaker 1: you a little overview of the top guys at the position,
Speaker 1: give you our favorite sleepers, our busts, and our must
Speaker 1: haves at those positions. And of course, if you're looking
Speaker 1: to check out the ranks for yourself, you can go
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Speaker 1: slash MLB Draft Wizard today. All right, Welsh, let's start
Speaker 1: at first base. I don't want to start a catcher.
Speaker 1: Catcher is a little me boring for me. I doubt
Speaker 1: right exactly. So first base it is today, and we're
Speaker 1: gonna run through the top guys at the position here
Speaker 1: and give you a little overview. At the top, of course,
Speaker 1: Vlad Junior going at sixteen overall right now currently in
Speaker 1: adp Bryce Harper, Freddy Freeman, Matt Olsen, Pete Alonzo. Then
Speaker 1: I think there's a dip here. You have guys like Diazu. Again,
Speaker 1: I'd rather be a catcher than at first base. Josh Naylor,
Speaker 1: Christian Walker. Two guys that have moved locations here, Cody Bellinger,
Speaker 1: Spencer Steer, Tristan Cassis, Vinnie Pascuentino. So there's definitively a
Speaker 1: group at the top of sluggers. After that a group
Speaker 1: where you think you can probably get some power out
Speaker 1: of guys like Nailer and guys like Christian Walker Cody
Speaker 1: Bellinger hopefully on a balance back. And then it's kind
Speaker 1: of a little bit of a leap of faith, maybe
Speaker 1: with costs in Pascalentino, but to me, first basis a
Speaker 1: little bit more of a priority. I like to hit
Speaker 1: it early.
Speaker 2: How about you, Yeah, I think for the most part,
Speaker 2: I've got these clumps. Obviously, Vlad and Bryce Harper make
Speaker 2: a lot of sense. I'm a little bit faidie of
Speaker 2: maybe Freeman. I'm not super super interested in Olsen and Alonzo.
Speaker 2: So it's like, you know, I'm gonna have to essentially
Speaker 2: pick a second round for a first baseman or then
Speaker 2: I'm skipping for a while. Then we go into that
Speaker 2: like third tier of first basement, which you talk about,
Speaker 2: which I think is gonna be my sweet spot and
Speaker 2: something I have to target, and then another just deep
Speaker 2: thing to think about. We're gonna talk about it here.
Speaker 2: Third base depth isn't fantastic. So if you have a
Speaker 2: corner infield spot. I'm personally trying to fill my corner
Speaker 2: infield spot from first base, and you can go deeper
Speaker 2: if you want, because I think there's some nice sleepers.
Speaker 2: We're gonna talk about some of those guys. But even
Speaker 2: if you wanted to take away from that core top twelve,
Speaker 2: top fourteen a first baseman, you're just not going to
Speaker 2: hurt yourself if you invested in let's just say first
Speaker 2: basement number six and first basement number ten because the
Speaker 2: cost is a little depreciated with really great return. So yeah,
Speaker 2: I don't want to wait too too long in my
Speaker 2: investment on first base, but I'm going in tiers and
Speaker 2: little chunks of the guys that are my targets.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about sleepers too, because obviously a
Speaker 1: lot of leagues have corner spots. And a guy that
Speaker 1: I like at the corner spot is Alec Burlson of
Speaker 1: the Saint Louis Cardinals. That was one of our favorite
Speaker 1: waiver wire pickups last year. He really took off. He's
Speaker 1: got position flexibility too, which is also a nice thing
Speaker 1: to have for a player when you're drafting them a
Speaker 1: little later, and if you look at what he did
Speaker 1: last year, Welsh, I mean across the board, incredibly productive
Speaker 1: on a team that was really underwhelming. He cracked seventy
Speaker 1: runs and seventy rbi. He had nine steals, he had
Speaker 1: two sixty seven twenty one home runs. To me, he's
Speaker 1: kind of like the modern day version potentially of ben Zobris,
Speaker 1: like a guy who just kind of gives you a
Speaker 1: little to everything. Is he spectacular, No, but certainly a
Speaker 1: guy that can be productive. And I do expect some
Speaker 1: incremental improvements from Saint Louis year over a year, because
Speaker 1: I think last year was a little bit of an anomally.
Speaker 1: I think some of these kids, hopefully we'll start to
Speaker 1: get it. Maybe this will be the Jordan Walker year,
Speaker 1: maybe Mason Wins and of the other guys really start
Speaker 1: to take the next step forward. Berlson's a guy for
Speaker 1: me who's a sleeper for you at first.
Speaker 2: Basically, one thing I want to point out with Birlson
Speaker 2: I like this one too deeper league play, and the
Speaker 2: Cardinals have lost so many players into free agent. They're
Speaker 2: the only team as we record this that has not
Speaker 2: signed a single free agent then signed a single free
Speaker 2: agent of all MLB teams are just crazy, So Burlson's
Speaker 2: going to get an opportunity to move up in the lineup.
Speaker 2: It's kind of a.
Speaker 3: All of what is it? All tides rise the boats?
Speaker 1: That is that thing you are so close is born
Speaker 1: all A rising tide raises all shifts boats.
Speaker 2: There you go, okay, and the tide here is all
Speaker 2: of these guys coming out and then moving up in
Speaker 2: the lineup. So that's my great analogy here. I'll do
Speaker 2: something better than analogies. I'll give you a sleeper that
Speaker 2: I really like instead.
Speaker 1: I can tell you I can hear the analogies all day,
Speaker 1: but I'll take a sleep. Yeah.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I couldn't handle the comments all day. But the
Speaker 2: guy I'm gonna go with because I like your Burlson here,
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Michael Tolia with the Colorado Rockies.
Speaker 2: I've talked about totallya a decent amount of this offseason
Speaker 2: that the overall like big hit profile is pretty enormous.
Speaker 2: He had a seventeen percent barrel rate with a fifty
Speaker 2: percent hard hit rate.
Speaker 3: Those are monstrous numbers.
Speaker 2: Now, he's got a strikeout problem, and he had a
Speaker 2: batting average problem. He only hit two eighteen last year,
Speaker 2: and he had a thirty two percent strikeout rate. Those
Speaker 2: stink the positives though, take that hitting profile. He had
Speaker 2: an expected batting average of close to two forty, which
Speaker 2: I really really like. And he hits in Colorado it's
Speaker 2: the most hit or friendly environment you can have. And
Speaker 2: one of my main points to this is his ADP's
Speaker 2: around like one seventy or so. I don't believe you
Speaker 2: know he's in the top twelve of who you mentioned,
Speaker 2: or even top fifteen. Power is can be hard to
Speaker 2: come by. Like I think we all pick and choose
Speaker 2: these different things. Okay, I got to focus on stolen bases.
Speaker 2: No longer do we care about trying to find stolen
Speaker 2: bases late. You can find it all the time. The
Speaker 2: two pieces that seem harder in the hitting world to
Speaker 2: find later in drafts are a batting average, which he
Speaker 2: doesn't help you with, but be elite power, not just power.
Speaker 2: Alec Burlson twenty homer is awesome, great, he has better
Speaker 2: batting average, but finding thirty five plus home run power
Speaker 2: outside the top one fifty, it's not one hundred percent
Speaker 2: there totally. It does provide that totally you could be
Speaker 2: a forty home run hitter. He can't hit two twenty again.
Speaker 2: But I think the hitting profile works really well in Colorado,
Speaker 2: where he should be hitting again higher in a lineup,
Speaker 2: hopefully there's RBI opportunities.
Speaker 3: Think he's a sleeper.
Speaker 2: He fits for all teams, and I really think there's
Speaker 2: a possibility that that batting average doesn't become some big
Speaker 2: albatross to your team like a Joey Gallo.
Speaker 3: So Tolia is a sleeper for me.
Speaker 1: By the way, one more known on Burlson too before
Speaker 1: we move on to the bus. Looks like he's projected
Speaker 1: at number two in that order, two between Contreras and
Speaker 1: then Win at the top. So I also like that too.
Speaker 1: Lineup spot matters a lot, and that's what whils she's
Speaker 1: talking about his guy in Colorado. Two. Okay, so there's sleepers.
Speaker 1: There's also a bus at the position for me, Ryan
Speaker 1: Mintcastle and Ryan Mountcastle. I know that's Mike Mayer's favorite player,
Speaker 1: and I know he's going to get very mad at
Speaker 1: me for saying this, But three years in a row,
Speaker 1: declining home runs and declining power, and you know, some
Speaker 1: of the games played the last couple years be a
Speaker 1: little limited to now he's still hitting that at two
Speaker 1: seventy range. But my old thing is I feel like
Speaker 1: he's about to get squeezed out of Baltimore. Potentially Kobe
Speaker 1: Meyo eventually going to come up, and that's going to
Speaker 1: create some sort of logjam at the corners because you
Speaker 1: gotta have the DH spot kind of locked up. Me
Speaker 1: he could playm at DH two, But I don't know.
Speaker 1: I just feel like the new blood of the Baltimore
Speaker 1: Orioles is really pushing forward there and it's going to
Speaker 1: continue to push this year. And I feel like Mountcastle
Speaker 1: might be a guy that has dealt at some point
Speaker 1: by the trade deadline. Potentially if some more of these
Speaker 1: young guys push him out or worse, he gets in
Speaker 1: this weird rotational thing where he's not like an everyday player,
Speaker 1: and that to me is also potentially bust worthy. So
Speaker 1: Maltcowsle is a guy that I'm personally avoiding in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five, wells, who are you avoiding? In first base?
Speaker 2: Ces Christian Incarnacion's strand And I could eat my words
Speaker 2: on this one because last year just wasn't great.
Speaker 3: There's a ton of miss time. There really wasn't a
Speaker 3: ton of it bats.
Speaker 2: The hitting profile was completely different. But I think in
Speaker 2: theory you could chalk that up to the.
Speaker 3: Injury, and that's kind of the big thing.
Speaker 2: There's a couple guys that I'm just not really buying
Speaker 2: bounce backs. We're going to talk about a guy in
Speaker 2: a little bit at third base. It's kind of the
Speaker 2: same thing because in this past year, barrel percentage dipped,
Speaker 2: expected batting average dipped strikeouts were still incredibly high, and
Speaker 2: he stopped walking whatsoever. But comparative to the year prior,
Speaker 2: Strand had an ten percent barrel rate, forty eight percent
Speaker 2: hard hit rate, which was elite. He walked two percent
Speaker 2: more of the time, and he had an XBA of
Speaker 2: two seventy after he hit two seventy. So it was like, oh,
Speaker 2: this might be a power hitter with batting average. The
Speaker 2: injury depleted some of that, so it could be one
Speaker 2: of those two ways. I watched him in the Arizona
Speaker 2: Fall League. It doesn't it doesn't seem comfortable still. Positionally,
Speaker 2: they don't know where he's going.
Speaker 3: They were talking about the outfield.
Speaker 2: He doesn't want to be there, and the Reds are
Speaker 2: collecting players like its pokemon. There Austin Hayes are trying
Speaker 2: to trade for Police Robert. They're getting everybody, and it's
Speaker 2: looking like a situation where Strand is going to be
Speaker 2: put in at best maybe maybe a situational player. So
Speaker 2: I'm just not in on it. The profile what I
Speaker 2: saw on there is in a fall league was kind
Speaker 2: of athletically. I don't know if the Reds fully trust him.
Speaker 2: His cost is still kind of up there, so I
Speaker 2: am going to be busting Cees.
Speaker 3: No thanks, all.
Speaker 1: Right, must haves. I don't spend too much time on
Speaker 1: this guy, because we talked about him in some of
Speaker 1: our undervalue shows that we just did. The Undervalued Hitter
Speaker 1: Show should be up there on the YouTube channel. Go
Speaker 1: check that out. But Tristan Cassas, he's gonna have Durham
Speaker 1: and Devors hitting ahead of him. Think he's gonna see
Speaker 1: a lot of fastballs this year, and I think he's
Speaker 1: in a really good spot. Projected hit third in that
Speaker 1: lineup right now over on Fangrafts and the roster resource there,
Speaker 1: and I think that when you look at some of
Speaker 1: the projections, you see zips As with twenty nine home runs.
Speaker 1: Steamer's got him a twenty eight if you somehow miss
Speaker 1: out on the Christian Walker Josh Naylor grouping right, you
Speaker 1: don't get the elite guys, and then man, that run happens,
Speaker 1: and you miss out the way to make up for it. Like,
Speaker 1: who's a guy that can hit two sixty and thirty
Speaker 1: home runs? I think it's Tristan Cassas, and I think
Speaker 1: that's just an easy win for me. And you've seen
Speaker 1: I've drafted him in some of our mocks already because
Speaker 1: I feel like that's also a really good return on investment.
Speaker 1: If I can't get the elite power at the price
Speaker 1: that I want early on, then the pivot there is
Speaker 1: hoping that he can deliver that same promise. Who for
Speaker 1: you is a must have at first base in twenty
Speaker 1: twenty five? Welsh?
Speaker 2: Yeah, remember I talked about these three buckets. There's like
Speaker 2: the number one, which is lad and Harper. You probably
Speaker 2: throw Freeman in there, and then two is kind of
Speaker 2: that Ulsen Alonzo range.
Speaker 3: No thanks.
Speaker 2: That third bucket starts in with I think Costas is
Speaker 2: the end of it. Naylor is in there. The guy
Speaker 2: that I want is in that bucket, and you mentioned
Speaker 2: him Christian Walker, So Christian Walker is the start of it.
Speaker 2: He's a must have for me. The cost isn't prohibitive
Speaker 2: really with whatever you've done. Obviously, if you went and
Speaker 2: drafted vlat it wouldn't make a ton of sense. But
Speaker 2: you know, Walker goes from a nice hitting environment in
Speaker 2: Arizona to an even better hitting environment in Houston. He
Speaker 2: had twenty six homers last year with a two fifty
Speaker 2: one average, but you've got an even shorter porch, which
Speaker 2: looks like from a projected standpoint, Baseball Savant does the like,
Speaker 2: how many homers would they hit if they were here?
Speaker 2: He had twenty only in this one ballpark. He had
Speaker 2: twenty five homers in Arizona projected to be twenty eight,
Speaker 2: so a three homer in boost in Houston by virtue
Speaker 2: of that. But it's just such a great short porch.
Speaker 2: Is an incredible offense around him as well. You're gonna
Speaker 2: have Altuve, you've got Jordan Alvarez. He should hit it
Speaker 2: a prominent spot in the lineup. He's one hundred RBI guy,
Speaker 2: gold Glove, He's always going to be out there. I
Speaker 2: just think Christian Walker just went into as good of
Speaker 2: a situation as you could possibly have in a ballpark.
Speaker 2: That is going to feed to how he hits the
Speaker 2: ball in general. So for him to be going around
Speaker 2: you know, like seventy eighty or something like that, he's
Speaker 2: an absolute must have at first or you want to
Speaker 2: you want to be like the one percenters, You want
Speaker 2: to be Richie Rich. Get him at a quarer infield.
Speaker 2: Go and take one of the top guys and then
Speaker 2: take him off the board. Thirty one hundred with I
Speaker 2: think a boost in batting average is in play, maybe
Speaker 2: in the two seventy range for Walker this year.
Speaker 3: Got to have him, all right.
Speaker 1: Let's continue our trip around the diamond here to second
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Speaker 1: fantracks dot com slash fantasy pros. That's fantracks dot com
Speaker 1: slash Fantasy pro Welsh on to second base and the
Speaker 1: sleeper might make people laugh for me, but it's Jackson Holiday.
Speaker 1: Why because last year everybody was falling all over themselves
Speaker 1: with Jackson Holiday. I of course pumped the brakes a
Speaker 1: little bit. Oh gee whiz, I wasn't quite ready for
Speaker 1: the big leagues. For those of you who watch Leading Off,
Speaker 1: you know what that voice is. But this is a
Speaker 1: new year, it's a new time, and you don't go
Speaker 1: from being arguably the number one prospect in baseball typically
Speaker 1: to being a complete and utter boss. And he's being
Speaker 1: drafted right now in a situation where if you start
Speaker 1: to look at some of the second basement, I'm going
Speaker 1: to run down them here. Mookie Bets at the top again.
Speaker 1: Position flexibility there could tell Marte great, Jose al Tuove,
Speaker 1: Ozzie Albi's, Marcus Simeon. The very solid group there some
Speaker 1: real veterans, but some health issues with I think all
Speaker 1: three of those guys Jordan Westberg, Matt McClain also health
Speaker 1: issue coming back, Bryce Terrang, Luis Garcia, Nico Horner, Xander Bogarts,
Speaker 1: Bryson Stott, Rafaela and Jmenez right on that peripheral. And
Speaker 1: then you have to go all the way down to
Speaker 1: the seventeenth guy overall at the position in Jackson Holiday,
Speaker 1: and I'm looking at I'm thinking to myself, can Jackson
Speaker 1: Holiday potentially outperform Rafaela, Jimenez, guys like Bryson Stott. I
Speaker 1: think he absolutely can. So to me, that makes him
Speaker 1: a sleeper. This year he got rid of the big
Speaker 1: leg kick two going to that toe tap. I think
Speaker 1: that will help him a little bit. I think really
Speaker 1: it was just pushed a little bit too soon and
Speaker 1: unfortunately didn't go well. But I think twenty twenty five
Speaker 1: might be a different story. And this is when I'm
Speaker 1: buying the dip in the post hype. I think it's
Speaker 1: the perfect situation. Give me a sleeper for you at
Speaker 1: second base and what you think of the position.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm also gonna tell you this is probably the
Speaker 2: first one so far in this show where it's like, oh,
Speaker 2: you took a guy that I probably would have put,
Speaker 2: so sometime I'm trying to pivot off not give the
Speaker 2: mack Hines. Yeah, I would have put Jackson Holiday, great barrel,
Speaker 2: good hard hit, struggled against Slider's young young dude who
Speaker 2: got pushed up four levels in a year year prior.
Speaker 2: I think there's a pretty easy work like that.
Speaker 3: You know.
Speaker 2: It's like, like you said, you're changing and getting into
Speaker 2: the toe tap. You're gonna work on hitting some of
Speaker 2: that offspeed breaking stuff because he can hit fastballs. He's
Speaker 2: done it in the minors, and he has a really
Speaker 2: good underlying hit profile. So I'm there with I'm totally
Speaker 2: there with you on him as far as the position goes.
Speaker 2: In general, you know, second base always has this kind
Speaker 2: of weakness that it feels. I think it is deeper
Speaker 2: than some years prior, but I think that deepness more
Speaker 2: speaks to middle infield. You know, getting your starter, I don't.
Speaker 2: I still don't want to wait and be like, all right,
Speaker 2: I'm the last guy that got a second basement, because
Speaker 2: now then you're going to be swimming in a pool
Speaker 2: that's just not going to feel great. You know, you're
Speaker 2: you're going to be playing from behind, and then you're
Speaker 2: probably gonna have to try to maybe up take a
Speaker 2: short step.
Speaker 3: Now. The only reason maybe you could do.
Speaker 2: It is if you double tap shortstop. Sometimes people will
Speaker 2: go shortstop early and then shortstop in middle, and maybe
Speaker 2: that middle infield shortstop can make up for some deficiencies
Speaker 2: that you might have had at second base. But you know,
Speaker 2: I'm not really sure that you want even as much
Speaker 2: as I love Luis ran Gifo, you want him as
Speaker 2: like your starter or even Bryce Terrain unless you're chasing
Speaker 2: stolen bases. So I'm trying to attack it a little
Speaker 2: bit early if I possibly can. If you don't, we'll
Speaker 2: go to my sleeper. I think this is a solid
Speaker 2: deeper league middle infield player that I'm going to targeting
Speaker 2: former potential twenty twenty player. It's Jonathan India, who was
Speaker 2: traded over to the Kansas City Royals. India last year
Speaker 2: when it really wasn't a great year. Fifteen homers, thirteen
Speaker 2: stolen bases, hit just under two point fifty, had best
Speaker 2: OBP over the last couple of years. In fact, twelve
Speaker 2: point six percent walk rate, highest of his career, in
Speaker 2: top three.
Speaker 3: Percentile of the league. Why does that matter. He's going
Speaker 3: to go potentially hit leadoff for the Royals.
Speaker 2: You've got Bobby Witt Junior, You've got Salvador Perez hitting
Speaker 2: behind you. You have any pass Quintino that opens up
Speaker 2: a huge opportunity for runs. This team also runs on
Speaker 2: the base path, so you might see that uptick. Projections
Speaker 2: aren't really putting that in play. Atc projections are pretty
Speaker 2: light on him. Run a two to fifty batting average,
Speaker 2: homers and stolen bases are both under fifteen. I think
Speaker 2: there's a legit shot that Jonathan India can get into
Speaker 2: that twenty twenty range. The profile in general is pretty solid,
Speaker 2: almost eight percent barrel. His expected batting average was close
Speaker 2: to two seventy, so it was higher than it was
Speaker 2: last year. He struck out under twenty percent of the time,
Speaker 2: and he walked a ton. Hey, you're at the top
Speaker 2: of that Royals lineup with a bunch of monsters behind you,
Speaker 2: you might jump into ninety RBI. You steal twenty plus bases,
Speaker 2: you get some homers. All of a sudden, he goes
Speaker 2: from a guy that is going two fifty, two twenty
Speaker 2: or something like that into maybe being a top one
Speaker 2: fifty overall player. So I think India is a really
Speaker 2: nice second base sleeper.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about bust at second base. Bryson
Speaker 1: Stott is one for me. He's in the nine hole
Speaker 1: in that Phillies lineup. The power is limited. I mean,
Speaker 1: I know he had fifteen homers in twenty throw and
Speaker 1: three but went back down to eleven last year. The
Speaker 1: strikeout rate went up last year or two. I get it.
Speaker 1: In rotal leagues, you cover at the stolen basis. So
Speaker 1: I totally understand why he's still in that top twelve range.
Speaker 1: But I keep going back to who's a superior hitter
Speaker 1: in my opinion? Is it Bryson Stotta, which Jackson Holiday
Speaker 1: can be? You know or guys like that that are
Speaker 1: going after Bryson Stott. So for me, it's a no brainer.
Speaker 1: I thought that he's a bad player. I think also
Speaker 1: had some big moments in the postseason two which I
Speaker 1: think might little bit overinflate his value artificially, So I
Speaker 1: want to stay away from that. I don't like when
Speaker 1: that happens. Very small sample size. So Welsh, who's the
Speaker 1: guy you're avoiding at second base?
Speaker 2: Man, I'm having a realization that, like, I'm picking on
Speaker 2: a lot of Reds players, and I'm gonna probably pick on.
Speaker 1: Some, I mean, seems to be your guy. And now
Speaker 1: where you're gonna pick.
Speaker 3: On, I'm gonna pick on Matt McClain. And I will
Speaker 3: tell you.
Speaker 1: I like McLain. I'm buying back in AFL coming back
Speaker 1: from the injury. I think it's gonna take a little
Speaker 1: bit of time, but I think he'll be okay.
Speaker 3: It's part of the problem.
Speaker 2: So like I also like Matt McClain. Here's what I
Speaker 2: don't like. There's no discount he's being going. He's going
Speaker 2: inside the top one hundred right now. I don't like
Speaker 2: the discount. He did not play last year except in
Speaker 2: the aarson A fall league where I saw him personally
Speaker 2: every single day and he still had some of the warts.
Speaker 2: That was my hope if you're gone for an entire year.
Speaker 2: You know, he was during instructs. I actually caught him
Speaker 2: at Red's instructs. You know he had been out.
Speaker 1: There working when instructs.
Speaker 2: But well, it's the instructional league where there's nothing going on. Uh,
Speaker 2: you would have hoped during that time.
Speaker 3: Maybe let's take a look at the year prior. Let's
Speaker 3: get some fixes.
Speaker 2: Specifically, what I'm talking about is that strikeout rate. It
Speaker 2: looked as bad as ever in the Arizona Fallay. Now,
Speaker 2: maybe that's you know, you lost the whole season. You're
Speaker 2: trying to be hyper aggressive, anything super high on fastballs, attack,
Speaker 2: swing through, he's striking out. He was just eating low
Speaker 2: breaking stuff outside the zone. And my problem with that
Speaker 2: is he had a twenty eight and a half percent
Speaker 2: strikeout rate the year prior when he played. Now how
Speaker 2: he got through that. He barreled the ball ten percent,
Speaker 2: forty two percent hard hit rate, and his expected batting
Speaker 2: average was there, Like he gets stuff done. He's kind
Speaker 2: of like Spencer Steer. In fact, if you look at
Speaker 2: it as a whole. I'm just worried that maybe it
Speaker 2: is the same thing like Steer. Can he get to
Speaker 2: twenty twenty, Absolutely, but I'm worried it's going to be
Speaker 2: like at a two twenty or two thirty batting average,
Speaker 2: he's going to have big swings. He's coming off of
Speaker 2: this injury where he missed a year and he looked
Speaker 2: rusty in the Arizona Fall League. So for me to
Speaker 2: pay a top one hundred value or cost on that,
Speaker 2: I'm not super interested, especially by the way I just
Speaker 2: mentioned a guy like Jonathan India. Jonathan India could put
Speaker 2: up I don't know ninety percent of what Matt McClain
Speaker 2: is at like one hundred and fifty picks later. So
Speaker 2: I'm going to be fading Matt McClain this year. I'm
Speaker 2: where the strikeout rate is going to have an ultimate
Speaker 2: effect on his total value.
Speaker 3: And I don't know how.
Speaker 2: Terry Francona is going to just sit around and just
Speaker 2: all right, let's let him get through it. Mcclan might
Speaker 2: be hitting lower in the lineups as well. They might
Speaker 2: start platuning, because again, it's Pokemon. For Terry Francona, it's
Speaker 2: Pokemon Go. He is out there and he sees mystery player,
Speaker 2: He signs them, picks them up, and he puts them
Speaker 2: in the rotation for the Reds. I am just personally
Speaker 2: going to be out on drafting Matt McCain inside the
Speaker 2: top one.
Speaker 1: Hundred, all right. I'm still probably in right around there.
Speaker 1: But so far in the drafts i've seen, it's been
Speaker 1: a little bit of a discount the ones I've been
Speaker 1: in so far. You know this grouping too, and we're
Speaker 1: going to get to the must haves here, you know, wholesale.
Speaker 1: Two V is still going as a third guy. I
Speaker 1: still prefer Albi's probably Simon two. I mean, how two
Speaker 1: V's thirty four years old, and I think at certain
Speaker 1: point in time you got to start taking that into effect.
Speaker 1: That's going to be even more declined.
Speaker 3: You say the third or first guy.
Speaker 1: He's typically going as the third guy. Oh yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: And I'm just saying, you know, I'd rather have Albi's
Speaker 1: or Simion probably over That's me. That's my rankings personally
Speaker 1: going into the season.
Speaker 2: I think Simeon is a huge value because you didn't
Speaker 2: say Marquez, So it threw me off, like can tell Martes.
Speaker 1: Because I said this one first too, the clear cuts
Speaker 1: Betts and it's Marte. It's a clear shelf there. But
Speaker 1: then I look at the stat line last year for
Speaker 1: Altub and I look at the stat line this year
Speaker 1: for Luis Garcia Junior, and I keep coming back to
Speaker 1: the same thing, and I know he's my guy this year,
Speaker 1: and I'm going to pound the table every show for him.
Speaker 1: But eighteen homers, twenty two a stone bass, excuse me,
Speaker 1: seventy rbi last year, fifty eight runs scored, And I think,
Speaker 1: you know, this lineup for the Nationals is going to
Speaker 1: be far improved. You're gonna get a whole season of
Speaker 1: James Wood, You're hopefully going to get a productive season
Speaker 1: form Dylan Cruz. We can only hope that Nathaniel Lowe
Speaker 1: is going to add a little bit more presence of
Speaker 1: that lineup along with Bell. So I think he's in
Speaker 1: a good, solid lineup. And it's funny because when we
Speaker 1: started hyping him up, he was about I would say,
Speaker 1: one hundred picks different than jose Al Tuve. That gap
Speaker 1: is closing about seventy five in an nfbcceed right now
Speaker 1: drafts it's even less. So clearly people are also starting
Speaker 1: to pick up on that same fact there with him.
Speaker 1: So who's your must have? Guy Garcias on who's yours
Speaker 1: at second base?
Speaker 3: Interesting thing too, A couple of notes is just throw
Speaker 3: in there.
Speaker 2: Altuve has apparently been working in the outfield the rumors
Speaker 2: that were to signed, so you could some more musician eligibility.
Speaker 2: And also want to point out Mooki bets I believe
Speaker 2: should only qualify second base in Yahoo he had I
Speaker 2: think it.
Speaker 3: Was eighteen games at second bastion.
Speaker 1: Yeah, excuse me, Ivery wont to ask you a question.
Speaker 1: Do you like that more? Because sometimes when guys move positions,
Speaker 1: especially all star like, it doesn't always go like Craig
Speaker 1: Bigio like where it's it's like, yeah, it's fine. You
Speaker 1: know some guys who they go and they move, they
Speaker 1: struggle in the transition from infield to outfield specifically.
Speaker 2: Oh okay, So I thought you were gonna ask like
Speaker 2: the positions because like Tatist did this and he got
Speaker 2: outfield eligibility and he was still really good.
Speaker 1: And much different body type, much different athlete, I think too.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I think it could be weird.
Speaker 2: I'm not sure it's going to affect the game, but
Speaker 2: I'm also pretty open to like the external things like
Speaker 2: that can affect these players, Like you know, sometimes like
Speaker 2: a guy that was always a hitter going in D
Speaker 2: eight something to think about with like Mike Traut, like.
Speaker 1: Eligibility could changing that mindset. Sometimes the confidence level gets
Speaker 1: shaken a little bit. I don't know. I'm just saying, like,
Speaker 1: it's not always sunshine roses when a guy changes position.
Speaker 3: Sure, and it might not be, especially at.
Speaker 1: This stage in his career he's an older player.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and then again, just the Mookie Bets thing. Eighteen games.
Speaker 2: I believe at second base, so yahoo, he will qualify.
Speaker 2: He shouldn't in some of the other spots. I also
Speaker 2: personally believe we should change the qualifications to not twenty,
Speaker 2: but not five, so make it ten or fifteen. But
Speaker 2: that's just me, all right, my guy, I'm gonna go
Speaker 2: go with a guy that have played a bunch of
Speaker 2: games at two different positions. I think people consider him
Speaker 2: on the other side because that will be his position,
Speaker 2: but he qualifies at second base, so I must have.
Speaker 3: Is Jordan Westburg. I've talked a bunch about him.
Speaker 2: He's going around like the I think it's like the
Speaker 2: seventh or eighth or maybe even sixth second baseman. The
Speaker 2: point is is you can draft him, and that's why
Speaker 2: he becomes a must have. This isn't like saying, guys, Kutolmarta,
Speaker 2: you've got to have no Jordan Westberg.
Speaker 3: He's a must have.
Speaker 2: Eighteen homer, six dolen bases, two sixty four batting average
Speaker 2: last year, great hitting profile. You know, I love over
Speaker 2: ten percent barrel and forty five percent.
Speaker 3: Hard hit rate. He hits that lowered to strikeout yate
Speaker 3: rate the year prior.
Speaker 2: Hits the ball really hard one point one average exon
Speaker 2: velocity and the orioles they're bringing in that left field.
Speaker 2: I've said to a bunch on shows to make it
Speaker 2: a little bit more hitter friendly. So you've already got
Speaker 2: this kind of like monster profile that hit the ball
Speaker 2: really well. By the way's expected batting average was around
Speaker 2: two eighty, so it was even better with this great profile,
Speaker 2: better expected batting average, lowering the strikeouts. He can run.
Speaker 2: He can hit legitimate shot at twenty five to ten.
Speaker 2: Maybe it's going to go thirty fifteen somewhere in there.
Speaker 2: The ballpark's becoming better. He's going to hit in a
Speaker 2: prominent spot for the Orioles lineup, so I'm really into it.
Speaker 2: Jordan Westburg with third and second base qualification as man
Speaker 2: must have second basement all right over to the hot corner.
Speaker 1: The third baseman looked like this over on Fantasy Pros
Speaker 1: Consensus ADP, which again you can find over fantasypros dot Com.
Speaker 1: Jose Ramirez over at the top top five player overall
Speaker 1: my opinion, still maybe even top three. I mean, if
Speaker 1: you want to get to that argument when you look
Speaker 1: at third base as a whole. Vlad Gurow Junior, Jazz Chisholm,
Speaker 1: Rafield Devers, Austin Reiley. This is interesting because I think
Speaker 1: there's warts on all these guys. Although they all have
Speaker 1: incredible talent and have all been super productive at one
Speaker 1: time or another. You could pick each one apart and
Speaker 1: find a negative on each one. Know, Dever is coming
Speaker 1: off a down year, Jazz Chisholm's injury history last year,
Speaker 1: Austin Riley looking lost then getting hurt, and Vlad, who
Speaker 1: has struggled at times and maybe the pressure of a
Speaker 1: contract year does get to him, maybe it doesn't. Second
Speaker 1: half last year was brilliant after that, Manny Machado at
Speaker 1: six mark Vientos at seven. Who is my favorite thing?
Speaker 1: In twenty twenty five? Jordan Westbrook Junior Caminaro, Royce lewis
Speaker 1: very risky in the top ten as a recording. This
Speaker 1: still winning for Bregman to sign somewhere. Jake Berger, Matt Chapman,
Speaker 1: U Haino Suarezho was awful in the first half and
Speaker 1: then all of a sudden a completely different human being
Speaker 1: at fourteen. So that's kind of like your your rough
Speaker 1: version there of the top twelve issue at the position.
Speaker 2: One thing to add, like Mookie Vladd will only qualify
Speaker 2: at third base in Yahoo. He played twelve games at
Speaker 2: third base, which was I was shocked when I actually
Speaker 2: saw because I saw the qualification. I was like, would
Speaker 2: he play five? No, he played twelve at.
Speaker 1: Thirty he looked at third base ones, so.
Speaker 2: Only Yah, who should be the one that has the
Speaker 2: third base qualification anywhere else ESPN and FBC. I believe
Speaker 2: CBS are all twenty game eligibility, so he wouldn't be
Speaker 2: the top third baseman. But Yahoo, you'll get that extra
Speaker 2: little push.
Speaker 1: Yeah, So look, looking at this again, I'm willing to
Speaker 1: let this market come to me because I think there
Speaker 1: is a very strong middle there, Riley Machado, Viento's those
Speaker 1: are all really strong guys, and for me, a sleeper
Speaker 1: as a corner guy to me once againstoc paraitis right,
Speaker 1: he's going to be hitting in a good spot potentially
Speaker 1: in this order. Now Bregman signing could maybe change a
Speaker 1: little of this. We're still waiting to find that out,
Speaker 1: but as of right now, Meregman is not back with
Speaker 1: the Houston Astros, and there's a chance here that you
Speaker 1: could see Paritas hitting in that two spot, which I
Speaker 1: think is terrific for that run scored total. He is
Speaker 1: not that far removed from a big time power season.
Speaker 1: We know all the stats about well, if you dropped
Speaker 1: him in last year, all those home run totals have
Speaker 1: have been a lot higher year over a year. So
Speaker 1: there's a lot of reasons to like Parretis. And he's
Speaker 1: a lot younger too than people realize, which I think
Speaker 1: you know people take for granted he's kind of been
Speaker 1: around a while. But if he is sandwich between al
Speaker 1: Tuove and Alvarez man Welsh, that's a really good spot
Speaker 1: to be. Who's a sleeper for you in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: five at the hot corner.
Speaker 3: Chalk it up that this is one hundred percent going
Speaker 3: to be mine. This was mine.
Speaker 2: Joey beat it to it. I completely co sign on
Speaker 2: this one. His draft stock is just low again like
Speaker 2: what he did in Tampa Bay. I think is in
Speaker 2: play here for Esach Praatus because it's a low porch.
Speaker 3: He is a pole.
Speaker 2: He doesn't have a good hitting profile, that's the thing,
Speaker 2: and that's why the Cubs he was exposed. It was
Speaker 2: just like, doesn't Barrel doesn't hit the ball hard, like
Speaker 2: what's going on? But what he does is he pulls
Speaker 2: fly balls twenty two percent launch angle, and now you're
Speaker 2: gonna go in one of the best places to do
Speaker 2: that in Houston. So like Bradiy's is just undervalued. I
Speaker 2: like that not picking pretis. I went with someone that
Speaker 2: I have a high rank on. I will be frank
Speaker 2: this could change because there could be a wrinkle thrown
Speaker 2: into it, but I'm gonna go with Matt Shaw.
Speaker 3: Matt Shaw.
Speaker 2: Everyone trying to figure out position qualifications for him as
Speaker 2: far as like what he did in the Miners, but
Speaker 2: Shaw is coming off of a twenty homer thirty stolen
Speaker 2: based season in the Miners. He is perceivably set to
Speaker 2: be the third baseman for the Cubs this year, where
Speaker 2: he is not going to have to be like praide
Speaker 2: Is and he's not like a bad hitting profile guy
Speaker 2: that's just going to have wall scraping homers Like No,
Speaker 2: the guy can dominate. I mean, the stolen based numbers
Speaker 2: have actually been pretty shocking. He finished up last minor
Speaker 2: league season by going and playing in the Premieer twelve
Speaker 2: USA Tournament where he was the best player and you
Speaker 2: had like Carson Williams playing there, Tamar Johnson, he was
Speaker 2: hands down the best player offensively, crushing more home runs.
Speaker 2: He is ready, and there's a reason why they moved
Speaker 2: off of Praideres to do it. But if Bregman were
Speaker 2: to sign there, it does really kind of throw a
Speaker 2: wrinkle into stuff because they'd have to trade Horner to
Speaker 2: get Matt Shaw back in there. But his cost is
Speaker 2: really really efficient. I think, by the way, he's number
Speaker 2: two in NL Rookie of the Year voting, yet I
Speaker 2: believe his ADP is outside the top two hundred. So
Speaker 2: you know, if you think that he is going to
Speaker 2: play all season long, he's going to beat projections. He's
Speaker 2: going to be close to a twenty twenty guy, and
Speaker 2: he is a definite sleeper that you can get at
Speaker 2: like corner infield cost and he'd qualify I think infield
Speaker 2: in some spots a shortstop.
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk about the busts here on the
Speaker 1: other side of the coin here. And look, I know
Speaker 1: Baltimore kind of had a glut of prospects, so they
Speaker 1: can afford to move a couple. But you know, when
Speaker 1: you love a prospect quote unquote, and then you move
Speaker 1: on from him, sometimes I think that's a bit of
Speaker 1: red flag. I also don't like the lineup where this
Speaker 1: player ended up either hitting in Miami. Now it's kind
Speaker 1: of norby. And it's not because I don't think he
Speaker 1: can be a productive player. I do. I think it's
Speaker 1: far too early. He's only twenty five years old, you know,
Speaker 1: to think that he can't be a good, solid, everyday
Speaker 1: player for the Marlins. He can be. The thing is,
Speaker 1: you know, it's one thing to be an up and
Speaker 1: coming prospect in an organization and you end up in
Speaker 1: a lineup that's got a lot of protection, a lot
Speaker 1: of help, and you can easily be productive and make
Speaker 1: a transition. I think it's much harder in a place
Speaker 1: where the talent is a little less or in this case,
Speaker 1: a lot less. You know, I just don't feel like Norby,
Speaker 1: despite the fact that he's probably hitting two, is going to
Speaker 1: deliver on the promise, at least not this year. I
Speaker 1: think it's going to be a tough transition. And you know,
Speaker 1: I always go back to a great example of this
Speaker 1: is Jad Martinez early in his career, right with the
Speaker 1: Astros when they were so bad and there was nobody
Speaker 1: around him, and then he got traded to Detroit and
Speaker 1: he got dropped in a line up there with the
Speaker 1: protection of Miguel Cabrera, and his career because completely took off.
Speaker 1: And I'm just saying it's just much harder for young
Speaker 1: players to not have proper lineup production and reach their
Speaker 1: ceiling quickly. So, wels, who are you out on potentially
Speaker 1: this year in twenty twenty five at third base?
Speaker 2: By the way, that's an interesting one because I feel
Speaker 2: like his cost is so low it's hard.
Speaker 3: For him to be a bust.
Speaker 2: He also has some really good underlying profile metrics, but
Speaker 2: it's of one of the worst.
Speaker 1: Tis still buzzy, like, oh kind of normy prospect guy
Speaker 1: like you know what I mean, Like, and we all
Speaker 1: know those dynasty circles that they run hot all the
Speaker 1: prospect names and people go, this guy's gonna be really useful.
Speaker 1: I just don't know if he's going to be useful.
Speaker 1: But you're right, it's not gonna cost you too much
Speaker 1: to find out. But also there is a name I
Speaker 1: just want to be dangerous of that.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and there's not a ton there.
Speaker 2: That was the other thing that's like on your side,
Speaker 2: it's like there's not a lot of support, there's not
Speaker 2: a lot of RBI opportunities, So I don't know what
Speaker 2: that's going to look like. There could be some k problems.
Speaker 2: So that's a really interesting Mine comes back similar to
Speaker 2: strand this is me and this is why, Like I
Speaker 2: don't think I can be right on all these guys
Speaker 2: that I'm picking on from this mentric, so one of
Speaker 2: them is going to be wrong, and I would counter
Speaker 2: to my own point. This is kind of like what
Speaker 2: I just said with Norby that Josh Young who I'm
Speaker 2: picking as my bust here, he's kind of free is
Speaker 2: ADP is at like right around the two hundred range,
Speaker 2: So like how much can you really bust when you're
Speaker 2: outside the top two hundred. But I am picking on
Speaker 2: him because I will say I found this the hardest
Speaker 2: of the infield positions to pinpoint, like who is going
Speaker 2: to be my actual bus?
Speaker 3: Royce Lewis came to mind.
Speaker 2: I think the top guys they're so chalky, and then
Speaker 2: there's this big jump and it's like, I just don't
Speaker 2: feel like you're getting a lot of busts in there.
Speaker 2: Matt Chapman is like amazing value. So I picked Josh
Speaker 2: Young again. This is the twenty twenty three was great.
Speaker 2: Twenty twenty four absolutely atrocious, especially with especially with.
Speaker 3: Some of the hitting profile. I'm maybe not.
Speaker 2: Absolutely atrocious, but two sixty four seven homers, four stolen
Speaker 2: bases with Josh Young. Strikeout rate came down a tiny bit,
Speaker 2: but a lot of the actual hitting metrics came down.
Speaker 2: Barrel went down, hard, hit absolutely tanked. He had a
Speaker 2: two forty expected batting average. Don't like any of that.
Speaker 2: He was struggling with an injury, and I think he's
Speaker 2: gonna get moved down the lineup. So I'm not a
Speaker 2: big Josh Young guy, but I really found this to
Speaker 2: be tough, and it might just be wrong because if
Speaker 2: he returns back to what he was in twenty twenty three,
Speaker 2: by the way, almost a fifty percent hard hit rate,
Speaker 2: twelve percent barrel. He had some strikeout problems, but he
Speaker 2: was absolutely crushing the ball in a really good environment.
Speaker 2: So I might eat my words on this, but you know,
Speaker 2: like you had to go Norby, I had to go
Speaker 2: young because this was a tough spot to like pinpoint
Speaker 2: the bust.
Speaker 1: All right, My must have at third base is simple.
Speaker 1: It's Mark Vientos of the New York Mets. You saw
Speaker 1: a star being born last year in twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1: That guy was unbelievable. And going back to last year's shows,
Speaker 1: we talked about his performance in spring training, and you
Speaker 1: know how an amord eye was of him in spring training.
Speaker 1: I said, he's finally ready. I think he's finally got it.
Speaker 1: And then the Martinez thing happened. He took over at
Speaker 1: DH and he was very visibly upset about this, and
Speaker 1: he took it personally, and he went down and he raked,
Speaker 1: and he got called up and he did nothing but
Speaker 1: rake at the major league level and then had some
Speaker 1: huge moments of the postseason. Now you're putting him behind
Speaker 1: Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, and I don't think there's
Speaker 1: any way if he stays healthy, he doesn't drive in
Speaker 1: one hundred runs this year, I think he's gonna hit
Speaker 1: over thirty home runs. And if again, if Pete Alonzo
Speaker 1: comes back and you sandwich him between Pete Alonzo and
Speaker 1: Juan Soto in that third spot, oh my god, Mark
Speaker 1: Viento's is going to be an all star. Mark Viento's
Speaker 1: is gonna be a guy that is going to become
Speaker 1: a rock star in twenty twenty five. I mean he
Speaker 1: could even approach thirty five or forty home runs. That's
Speaker 1: how good I think Vientos is as a power hitter.
Speaker 1: And with all those fastballs you might see and all
Speaker 1: those guys on base ahead of him, it could be
Speaker 1: an incredible year for Viento's. I'm going to be aggressive
Speaker 1: on him in twenty twenty five. Well, Foozier must have
Speaker 1: at third base.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like that one a lot. Mine is probably
Speaker 2: guy that's gonna play first base. He's on the other side. Hell,
Speaker 2: maybe he'll play third base and he'll play more third
Speaker 2: base this team and knock off Josh Young. It's Jake
Speaker 2: Berger some kind of staying in that same team where
Speaker 2: I don't seem to like a ton of the Reds.
Speaker 2: For whatever reason, I have been enamored with a lot
Speaker 2: of the Rangers players. Jake Berger is just going into
Speaker 2: a fantastic spot. We've talked about everybody's talked about it.
Speaker 2: He's coming off a twenty nine homer season.
Speaker 3: He's hit two fifty.
Speaker 2: By the way, he's the new Chorris Davis K Chris
Speaker 2: with a K. He's hit two fifty three straight seasons.
Speaker 2: Jake Berger has He's a thirty homer lock and now
Speaker 2: he's going into one of the better hitting environments out there.
Speaker 2: He's coming off of hitting with the White Sox and
Speaker 2: the Marlins. He's now with the Rangers. As long as
Speaker 2: he doesn't hit in that eighth spot or seventh spot
Speaker 2: that like roster resources.
Speaker 3: Putting twelve percent.
Speaker 2: Barrel forty seven percent hard hit, he lowered his strikeout rate.
Speaker 2: He's got an expected average that's around almost two sixty.
Speaker 2: Jake Berger is in a phenomenal environment where, by the way,
Speaker 2: let's just for a minute pretend that he could hit
Speaker 2: four or five. You've got Marcus Simeon, Corey, Seeger Wyatt,
Speaker 2: Langford in your top three spot against righty's are probably
Speaker 2: gonna put Jock Peterson. We'll see what they do with
Speaker 2: guys like Adulies.
Speaker 3: If he bounces back.
Speaker 2: You do have Josh Young, but Berger is an opportunity
Speaker 2: to hit higher in the lineup. He's already hitting thirty homers.
Speaker 2: Now the RBIs boost up and he's going outside the
Speaker 2: top one hundred. Must have multi corner infield qualifications for Berger.
Speaker 3: Got to have him. This is one of my favorite
Speaker 3: ones we've done so far.
Speaker 1: I love this acquisition for the Rangers in the offseason.
Speaker 1: I thought it was really sharp on their point too.
Speaker 1: Just give them a little bit more insurance there for
Speaker 1: the Corey Seekers and Marcus Simeans if they miss more
Speaker 1: time again in twenty twenty five. Let's move on to
Speaker 1: short stuff. Before we do a quick reminder. Take these
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Speaker 1: Let's get to the shortstops. Welsh and a guy that
Speaker 1: I just took in our most recent draft, a guy
Speaker 1: that I even mentioned in our Undervalued show, and he's
Speaker 1: gonna come up here again because he really is a sleeper.
Speaker 1: I think I don't hear anybody talking about Jeremy PanAm.
Speaker 1: And when you start to look through this list here,
Speaker 1: you've got Bobby Witt at the top, You've got Ellie
Speaker 1: de la Cruz, you've got Gunner, Henderson, Mookie Bets, Francisco Lindor,
Speaker 1: huge names. I think that is the number one tier.
Speaker 1: Then you got the Trey Turner, Corey Seeger. Okay, we're
Speaker 1: starting to get into a little bit more shaky ground,
Speaker 1: but still big time talent. On'eal Cruz a guy once again,
Speaker 1: another guy moving positions, going to the outfield. But it's career.
Speaker 1: That stuff doesn't worry me nearly as much as the
Speaker 1: veterans when they start to move off positions. CJ. Abrams, Williadomas,
Speaker 1: Matt McClain, who you already voiced some concern about, bobashett
Speaker 1: A twelve. Then right on that peripheral, you've got Nico Horner,
Speaker 1: Anthony Volpi, Tovar all in that group. Tovar was my
Speaker 1: favorite guys last year had a really good season. But
Speaker 1: what's so fascinating is I look at the production of
Speaker 1: Jeremy Pania last year fifteen homers, seventy seventy. I think
Speaker 1: he could easily be a seventy five seventy five guy,
Speaker 1: maybe even push that home run total closer to twenty.
Speaker 1: Gave you twenty steals last year, hit to sixty six
Speaker 1: and I'm thinking Anthony Volpi hasn't given me anything quite
Speaker 1: like that. I'm thinking to myself, I'm looking around. Matt
Speaker 1: McClain's coming off a major injury, Nico Horner lots of
Speaker 1: stolen bases, but doesn't give me quite maybe the power
Speaker 1: ceiling I think he might have. And then guys like
Speaker 1: Xander Bogart's Bryce and Stott Like, these guys are kind of,
Speaker 1: I think a little bit underwhelming to me. I know,
Speaker 1: some of them give you a little bit more stone bases,
Speaker 1: and I understand why that's coveted in the Rodos and
Speaker 1: the head to head Rodo Man. Well, Jeremy Pinia just
Speaker 1: seems like a guy at my middle infield spot that
Speaker 1: I think I could plug and play and be very
Speaker 1: happy with for one hundred and sixty two.
Speaker 2: Yeah, there were two guys that came to mind when
Speaker 2: we did this, and by the way, I do think
Speaker 2: this floats between sleeper undervalued, however you want to look
Speaker 2: at it. Number one was Jeremy Pania and then I
Speaker 2: saw you had him, so I'm like, I can't put
Speaker 2: Jeremy Pene on there because I.
Speaker 1: Used the advantages of making the sheet up.
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, you got to it first, completely agree. It's
Speaker 2: just like somewhere between, you know, twenty stolen bases, fifteen homers.
Speaker 2: By the way, ATC projections on him, pretty good average
Speaker 2: at two sixty two fifteen homers, seventeen stolen bases with
Speaker 2: a sub twenty percent K percentage in Houston.
Speaker 3: Love it.
Speaker 2: And by the way, he's in some instance has been
Speaker 2: a lead off hitter. And now you got Tucker out
Speaker 2: of that lineup, so we'll see what happens. Number two
Speaker 2: on that list for me, though, was Mason Winn when
Speaker 2: I couldn't pick Jeremy Penia. Mason Winn is coming off
Speaker 2: of a solid season. He had two sixty seven, fifteen homers,
Speaker 2: eleven stolen bases. He sent he spent the off season
Speaker 2: working at a lot of those bat clinics, getting in
Speaker 2: some more body mass, adding muscle, working on bat speed
Speaker 2: as they usually do. He's been working with Jordan Walker.
Speaker 2: And you know, Mason wins profile was sub eighteen percent
Speaker 2: K percentage, that's relatively elite. Gets the ball in the air,
Speaker 2: thirteen degree launch angle, that's solid.
Speaker 3: He's walking a.
Speaker 2: Bit, but he doesn't have that big explosive barrel, hard hit.
Speaker 2: So how does he get it done well. There's a
Speaker 2: lot of guys in baseball CJ. Abrams, Has and Kim
Speaker 2: I use them as always my examples Estock Brady's technically
Speaker 2: that have these low barrel like wind does low hard hit.
Speaker 3: So what do they do.
Speaker 2: They get under the ball and they get it in
Speaker 2: the air. Launch angle sweet spot as well as a
Speaker 2: metric that Baseball Savant does and that had a huge
Speaker 2: boost this past year twenty six to thirty three percent
Speaker 2: the launch angle. He hits it on the perfect spot
Speaker 2: to get the ball up in the air. Mookie Betts
Speaker 2: does that and now his launch angle went up. So
Speaker 2: my whole point of this is is that's where you're
Speaker 2: going to start optimizing and getting some home runs. And
Speaker 2: that's why you can project him in the fifteen. He's
Speaker 2: also aggressive base stealer. He's got a really good hitting
Speaker 2: profile where he doesn't strike out and make contact. Projections
Speaker 2: are around fifteen to fifty teen and like a two
Speaker 2: fifty to sixty average on him. I think there's a
Speaker 2: legitimate opportunity that he can jump up. Average can go
Speaker 2: up into the two eighties. He could be a twenty
Speaker 2: twenty guy and he's going you know, one seventy five
Speaker 2: to two hundred right now. So Mason Win is a
Speaker 2: definite sleeper, kind of must target player at shortstop.
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's funny, Welsh, because I took penny from you,
Speaker 1: but my second choice would have been Win. So we're
Speaker 1: seeing eye to eye on the sleepers here. Yeah, absolutely
Speaker 1: the bust. This one was easy for me. I could
Speaker 1: not wait to put this name in Trevor's story. When
Speaker 1: is enough enough for everybody? I don't. I don't get this, Welsh.
Speaker 1: I don't understand it. I like it, And uh, well
Speaker 1: you're gonna tell me why, because I'm gonna give you
Speaker 1: all the reasons why I don't, and then you get
Speaker 1: to try to sell me as best you can't.
Speaker 3: But yeah, go ahead.
Speaker 1: Well, I mean he hasn't played one hundred games in
Speaker 1: three years since he's been a Red Sox. First of all,
Speaker 1: the top out was ninety three. Uh, his splits in
Speaker 1: Colorado were always massive. I was never a big fan
Speaker 1: of his in Colorado either. I find him to be
Speaker 1: a very overrated player that would have some hot streaks. Sure,
Speaker 1: the numbers were always better because it was Colorado, But
Speaker 1: I hated this signing when the Red Sox did it,
Speaker 1: and it was so weird because it's like, you're gonna
Speaker 1: pay Trevor's story, but you're not gonna playing Mookie Betts.
Speaker 1: And it's turned out to be one of the worst
Speaker 1: decisions this organization has ever made. And now they've got
Speaker 1: these kids coming, They've got the Roman Anthonis coming, They've
Speaker 1: got the Casses to come, and they've got Christian Campbell come,
Speaker 1: and they've got Rafaela, and they got all these kids.
Speaker 1: I think story is gonna get pushed out. I know
Speaker 1: he's only like thirty two years older. Whenever he's turning
Speaker 1: this year, I'm out on Trevor's story. It's this name
Speaker 1: brand thing like Chris Bryant was still relevant in every
Speaker 1: draft for a couple of years. Like when do we learn,
Speaker 1: like just because a guy was good once upon a
Speaker 1: time doesn't make him good now or even investible. I
Speaker 1: think that's the problem. I don't think the guy's even
Speaker 1: investible at this stage. What are your I know he
Speaker 1: is still going late and I get that's probably what
Speaker 1: you're gonna say, but he's free. But at the same time,
Speaker 1: I Christian Campbell, Matt Shaw going after him, and I
Speaker 1: think you would agree I'd rather take a shot on
Speaker 1: those guys.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have them higher. So yeah, that's not right.
Speaker 2: Well for me, that's not a disagreement. I completely am
Speaker 2: with you.
Speaker 3: But he's free.
Speaker 2: He is the epitome of He literally doesn't get drafted
Speaker 2: in many twelve team leagues. There's I'm gonna say this,
Speaker 2: and it might be like someone might be able to
Speaker 2: answer it better, but I'm just.
Speaker 3: Gonna say it with like, you know, authority.
Speaker 2: There's no player that's not being drafted that has twenty
Speaker 2: twenty upside if they play the whole season than Trevor Story. Like,
Speaker 2: I can't think off the top of my head a
Speaker 2: guy that would be on the wire that would go
Speaker 2: out of your draft not being drafted.
Speaker 3: That lockdown.
Speaker 2: If I said, hey, you're getting one hundred and forty
Speaker 2: games at a Trevor Story, You're getting twenty twenty. That's
Speaker 2: what you're going to get out of him. There's just
Speaker 2: no other players. So that's why I'm in on it.
Speaker 2: But he can't stay healthy, So I don't disagree with that,
Speaker 2: but it's you know, I mean, there's just murderer's row
Speaker 2: after murderer's row of those guys, Like I still like
Speaker 2: the hitting profile.
Speaker 3: He's young enough.
Speaker 2: He's just absolutely free if he doesn't work out, cut him,
Speaker 2: see you. But there is twenty twenty tens.
Speaker 1: I just I don't want to waste draft picks. I
Speaker 1: guess that's where I'm at. At Ah, who's your bust
Speaker 1: for this section?
Speaker 2: My bus is a big name, and it's more about
Speaker 2: my disinterest Abrams. Everything is still in his favor. He
Speaker 2: came off of a twenty thirty season two forty six
Speaker 2: batting average. I mean, obviously insane. The hitting profile still
Speaker 2: has some you know, questions. He is barreling. He struck
Speaker 2: out a little bit more. He hit the ball harder.
Speaker 2: Like I said before, he optimizes it, gets the ball
Speaker 2: in the air. But he comes in an absolute premium cost.
Speaker 2: And he ended the season being suspended for staying out
Speaker 2: all night gambling. And that is a clear issue that
Speaker 2: is going on. Maybe that doesn't carry over, maybe that's
Speaker 2: completely fixed. He's had two really good fantasy seasons. I
Speaker 2: just got to tell you, like it's the stage we've
Speaker 2: talked about the world of overpaying for like a lot
Speaker 2: of strikeouts.
Speaker 3: It's just not there for me.
Speaker 2: He's going around a guy like Corey Seeger, who I
Speaker 2: think is an elite four category player that does have
Speaker 2: some injury questions, but he doesn't have suspension questions. He
Speaker 2: also doesn't have a bad hitting profile. I'm just worried
Speaker 2: when things go wrong for Abrams, it'll go wrong bad.
Speaker 2: There's also some off the field stuff, and I just
Speaker 2: don't feel the need that I want to pay for
Speaker 2: extreme stolen bases. But still at the same time, like, hey,
Speaker 2: well shut up, was twenty thirty.
Speaker 3: I get it. I'm just not into the cost. So
Speaker 3: that's why he's my bust.
Speaker 1: Well, it's funny because he was a win for a
Speaker 1: sleeper last year on both of our lists, and now
Speaker 1: a look a year later, we're like, okay, you know,
Speaker 1: and that happens sometimes for us, Like we love a player,
Speaker 1: we love the value, we love the upside, and the
Speaker 1: next year sometimes the cost is a little bit too much.
Speaker 1: But it's amazing how much difference, you know, a year
Speaker 1: can make for a player. All right, I must have
Speaker 1: as a guy Welsh already hates at this position. I'm
Speaker 1: gonna say, Matt McLain. I've been doing a lot of
Speaker 1: homework on Matt McClain to see where he's at reading
Speaker 1: all the articles, reading all the stuff coming out of
Speaker 1: his mouth. Arizona Fall League. He had four home runs.
Speaker 1: The slugging was there, the timing and the batting average
Speaker 1: wasn't there yet. But I assume that because he hasn't
Speaker 1: played baseball a long time. This is a guy that
Speaker 1: is very crucial what he does in spring for me.
Speaker 1: I want to make sure he has a good spring.
Speaker 1: If he does, I feel really good about where he
Speaker 1: is despite the fact the ADP is Welsh pointed out,
Speaker 1: is still relatively high. And here's the big reason why
Speaker 1: I want to take shots on twenty five twenty four
Speaker 1: year old guys who are gonna hit potentially, you know,
Speaker 1: somewhere in the two eighty range. But more importantly, you
Speaker 1: go back and you look at the OBP around four
Speaker 1: hundred in his minor league track record and five hundred
Speaker 1: of this slugging. A guy that's got power in a
Speaker 1: small ballpark with on bass skills. I want that guy
Speaker 1: on my team. So Matt McClain, that's your counterpoint for him.
Speaker 1: Welsh gave you the negatives, I give you the positives.
Speaker 1: Give me a must have for you in twenty twenty
Speaker 1: five at this position.
Speaker 3: But if he If he hits two eighty, I will
Speaker 3: eat my word.
Speaker 2: I do not believe there's a world where he's gonna
Speaker 2: hit two eighty, But if he does, I'm wrong as
Speaker 2: hell on Matt McClain.
Speaker 1: My pick, well, he's gonna be HiT's two sixty and
Speaker 1: gives me a three eighty on bays than a five
Speaker 1: hundred slugging man. That's gonna be a good player. That's
Speaker 1: gonna be a real good player.
Speaker 2: Well, the guy I'm gonna pick at shortstop is going
Speaker 2: after Matt McClain, and he used to be like a
Speaker 2: third round pick in drafts. He seems boring now because
Speaker 2: he's coming off of his literal worst season ever.
Speaker 3: I'm saying Bobashett is the guy.
Speaker 2: Bobashett is going massively late in drafts because he just
Speaker 2: hit two twenty six or two twenty five with four
Speaker 2: homers and five stolen bases in half of a year
Speaker 2: with a bunch of misstime. But that's coming off of
Speaker 2: the season where he hit three hundred with twenty homers,
Speaker 2: and he was going in like the third round because
Speaker 2: what if he runs a little bit more And my
Speaker 2: main thesis across the board is more about like the
Speaker 2: anomaly is last season, compared to his career, he was
Speaker 2: nine percent nine percent, nine percent barrel just year after
Speaker 2: year forty four fifty, hard hit all of a sudden.
Speaker 2: Last year, hard hit absolutely tanks, barrels cut in half,
Speaker 2: everything fell apart. Even so, his expected batting average was
Speaker 2: still around two fifty, but he's around our career two
Speaker 2: ninety guy. He didn't strike out more, he walked a
Speaker 2: little bit, and he just ended up underperforming specifically against
Speaker 2: some of that aw speed and breaking stuff. I think
Speaker 2: those things are going to change this year. I think
Speaker 2: that was the anomaly, and I think his cost is
Speaker 2: so depressed batting average is going to boost back up.
Speaker 2: I really think he just helps your team. He can
Speaker 2: play more as a middle infielder if you need to.
Speaker 2: Projections have him hitting two seventy four with sixteen homers
Speaker 2: according to atc SO, I think Boba shed at his
Speaker 2: cost as a must buy position.
Speaker 1: Here the catcher spot and the top twelve look like this.
Speaker 1: William Contreras at the top, Adlie Rutchman next, then Yander
Speaker 1: Diez sal Perez cal Rawley coming in at five. That's
Speaker 1: your top five, which is a pretty strong group. I
Speaker 1: would say, but for me, I'm still especially in single
Speaker 1: catcher leagues twelve team fifteen league, I don't care. I'm
Speaker 1: waiting two catcher leagues. Obviously, the calculus changes. Logan o'happy,
Speaker 1: excuse me, Will Smith at six, then Wilson Contreras, Logan
Speaker 1: Ohappy at eight, Shay Langeliers at nine, J T Real
Speaker 1: Muto at ten, Tyler Stevenson at eleven, Francisco Alphaez at twelve,
Speaker 1: and then on the peripheral you got Austin Wells, Sean
Speaker 1: Murphy looking for a bounce back season with Atlanta, like
Speaker 1: the entire Atlanta Braves, Steve it seems like kybrit Ruiz
Speaker 1: at fifteen, and then Connor Wong at sixteen. As you
Speaker 1: get a little deeper. So again, it's always the same
Speaker 1: with me. Number one, I hate two catcher leagues. I
Speaker 1: think they're stupid. I don't think there's any reason for
Speaker 1: him number two. Single catcher leagues twelve to fifteen. There's
Speaker 1: twelve to fifteen guys there that I can live with,
Speaker 1: and I just don't want to put the investment ahead
Speaker 1: of time in one of these bigger catchers unless somebody
Speaker 1: really dramatically falls. So that's the easy look for me
Speaker 1: and the sleeper in this list. I can't believe I
Speaker 1: got two mets on the list I'm going to talk about.
Speaker 1: I mean, talk about a difference a year makes. But
Speaker 1: Francisco Alvarez, I don't think we've seen the best out
Speaker 1: of him yet. Francisco Alvarez is a big time power
Speaker 1: potential here, and he could easily pop twenty five to
Speaker 1: thirty home runs in twenty twenty five if everything broke right.
Speaker 1: I think a lot of last year for him was
Speaker 1: really getting acclimated to managing the pitching staff and understanding
Speaker 1: what needed to happen there. And I think sometimes he
Speaker 1: also got frustrated with get into slumps and he was
Speaker 1: having a hard time turning things around. If you go
Speaker 1: back and look at the minor league rack record of
Speaker 1: this guy, this was a bat first catcher, right, you know.
Speaker 1: And it turns out the framing improved and all the
Speaker 1: other things improved. But everybody talked about Alvarez for the bat,
Speaker 1: not so much of the defense. And I think Alvarez
Speaker 1: in this lineup potentially could finally have that breakout season.
Speaker 1: So he's my sleeper at the position. Who's yours Welsh.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I was looking.
Speaker 2: By the way, I believe there's like nine on ATC
Speaker 2: catchers projected for twenty or more homers. Francisco Alvarez is
Speaker 2: the lowest cost of all of those projected catchers. I
Speaker 2: think this is a fantastic one, probably the one I
Speaker 2: would have picked as well, because it's low costs. I
Speaker 2: have my narrative here with catchers. I just play him
Speaker 2: late because I play single catcher leagues. I don't want
Speaker 2: to pay high costs at all. The catcher that I'm
Speaker 2: going to end up picking, though, is Austin Wells. Trevino
Speaker 2: out of town. I think that opens up more opportunities.
Speaker 3: For Wells to be out there.
Speaker 2: ATC projections have him around eighteen homers. I was going
Speaker 2: to pick Ivan Herrera, who had a really nice underlying
Speaker 2: hitting profile, and he's going to be I don't know
Speaker 2: if he's going to be the guy though, because I
Speaker 2: got Pedro Pajas, because Wilson Gatrez is going to move over.
Speaker 2: But if he were to get like the primary amount,
Speaker 2: it might be Herrera. But Austin Wells I think is
Speaker 2: locked because I don't think there's enough competition there. I
Speaker 2: think they want him to be the guy. There's a
Speaker 2: lot of power, it's a great hitting environment, and he's
Speaker 2: going outside the top twelve.
Speaker 3: So give me a late catcher in Austin Wells to
Speaker 3: the Yankees, all right?
Speaker 1: For me? The bust is j tirol Muto. I don't
Speaker 1: like investing in older catchers. I think I saw a
Speaker 1: lot of the client in him and just watched him
Speaker 1: last year, and he's a guy like he's played so
Speaker 1: many games at the position. I know he floats around
Speaker 1: sometimes in other spots too. You've seen the stolen bases
Speaker 1: drop off a cliff, you know, from twenty one to
Speaker 1: sixteen and then to just two last year. I know
Speaker 1: we only played ninety nine games. But again, he's gonna
Speaker 1: be thirty four years old. I know the Phillies are
Speaker 1: still a really good team. I'm just out on real mewtwo.
Speaker 1: I think this is another one where you're paying for
Speaker 1: the past of name brand value. Welsh, Who is a
Speaker 1: catcher that you don't want? Or should I say what
Speaker 1: kind of catcher don't you want? On draft day?
Speaker 2: Good way to phrase it, Joe, any catcher inside the
Speaker 2: top one hundred I don't want NFBC ADP listen. William
Speaker 2: Contreri's is a monster. I love him, smaller guy to catcher,
Speaker 2: lots of power. He's at top twenty five NFBC EIGHTYPECE
Speaker 2: in January first. But it's a two catcher I get it.
Speaker 2: But still, uh, in standard leagues, who are the guys
Speaker 2: that are going to be in there?
Speaker 3: Adlely?
Speaker 2: Maybe yanire Diaz William Contreras is going to be the
Speaker 2: number one. I'm not saying they can't come close to
Speaker 2: returning value. I just don't think the difference of the
Speaker 2: value on the guys you would invest in the top
Speaker 2: one hundred compared to the other hitters or pitches you
Speaker 2: could take, then moving down into taking the guy I'm
Speaker 2: gonna have as a must have or J two Ramuto
Speaker 2: or you know, I mean handfuls of guys. I just
Speaker 2: don't think the production difference makes enough sense. So I
Speaker 2: think investing in the top one hundred in a single
Speaker 2: catcher league, I'm not there. I'd also say even in
Speaker 2: the two catcher league, investing in the top fifty is
Speaker 2: really not something I want to do, kind of like
Speaker 2: even in closers, I would just rather have a little
Speaker 2: bit more value. You're gonna have to pay like closer
Speaker 2: seven or eight in the two catcher league is going
Speaker 2: to still go inside the top one hundred, but late
Speaker 2: I'd rather do that, But no inside the top one
Speaker 2: hundred catchers.
Speaker 1: Please.
Speaker 3: Sometimes I say clear.
Speaker 1: Agree one thousand percent with everything you're saying. I must
Speaker 1: have guy. Actually, if I'm in Herrera is the everyday
Speaker 1: catcher like we come out of spring, that's the guy
Speaker 1: that I do want. But as Welsh said, that might
Speaker 1: be a little bit of a muddy situation there. So instead,
Speaker 1: once again, whatever's old as new again it's logan, OHSPI,
Speaker 1: he's gonna be twenty five years old. Look, I got
Speaker 1: my dudes, and you know what, like had my dudes
Speaker 1: last year. I'm like camon Aro's my Durans, Like those
Speaker 1: are my guys. I'm just sticking to my guns. And
Speaker 1: I think that's important for everybody to do when they're
Speaker 1: going into a season. Identify the players you want, and
Speaker 1: then just drill it into yourself that those are the
Speaker 1: guys you want.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 1: Look, the same thing as a guy with power in
Speaker 1: the minor leagues hit for better average in the minor leagues,
Speaker 1: like I just think he had his finally as full season,
Speaker 1: first full major league season, he's gonna be twenty five
Speaker 1: years old. I think there's just a lot of upside
Speaker 1: there for him to outperform as ADP. He's not going
Speaker 1: to the top one hundred catcher, so I'm allowed to
Speaker 1: take him. But Welsh, is there somebody just outside the
Speaker 1: top one hundred that if you did want to take
Speaker 1: a catcher, who would it be?
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I definitely want values, and I'm not sure
Speaker 2: if this guy's going to be a value because people
Speaker 2: are in on it. But he's right around those middle.
Speaker 2: And I know this is funny and me's saying I
Speaker 2: want Lake catchers. I do, But if I were taking
Speaker 2: and having a little bit more investment, is Wilson Contreras.
Speaker 2: Wilson Contrares with the Cardinals is moving off of catcher.
Speaker 2: He's going to be their first baseman for this year.
Speaker 2: So that means you're gonna get all the games. We're
Speaker 2: not looking at, you know, four hundred at bats, which
Speaker 2: he had in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty three.
Speaker 2: He only had three hundred and actually three hundred and
Speaker 2: one at bats last year, and he still hit fifteen homers.
Speaker 2: So you're getting a guy that qualifies a catcher playing
Speaker 2: first base every day.
Speaker 3: That's the type of guy that I'm willing to invest in.
Speaker 3: So Contreras would be the must have.
Speaker 1: Okay, so who are your must haves? Who's your sleepers,
Speaker 1: who's your bust? What's the infield look like to you?
Speaker 1: Drop your comments below let us know what you're thinking.
Speaker 1: Don't forget to subscribe to Fantasy Pros MLB and of
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Speaker 1: on the channel. That'll do it for us, But the
Speaker 1: story of the game goes on for the Welsh. I'm
Speaker 1: Joey P. We'll see you next time kids, Happy drafting.
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