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Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast.

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Speaker 2: Pea, all right, here we go fifteen cunny, twenty five,

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Speaker 2: thirty thirty five, forty forty five fifty.

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Speaker 3: And the kick as block, Look all it suckball stunner

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Speaker 3: good bye, Oh my goodness he stumbled, and football the

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Speaker 3: lateral turn the counter.

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Speaker 1: On the inside.

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Speaker 4: Don't you the lad.

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Speaker 5: Table up the.

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Speaker 1: Field to night.

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Speaker 3: It's not the sage on the dog in the fighting.

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Speaker 3: It's the sage of the fight in the roll.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to the Big Bets on Campus Podcast, brought to

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Speaker 2: you by bet mjim On. Mike Calbury's joined as always

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Speaker 2: by Mike Ianello and our international man of mystery. He's

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Speaker 2: racking up the frequent fire miles. He's at media days

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Speaker 2: left and right. That's Colin Wilson, our man on the ground,

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Speaker 2: getting all the answers, asking all the probing, difficult questions

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Speaker 2: to the luminaries in the coaching ranks. And today we

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Speaker 2: get to do the independence. So that means Notre Dame

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Speaker 2: and UMAs and Yukon and Army and Conference USA.

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Speaker 6: Conference USA.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna start with Conference USA, the old country buffet

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Speaker 2: of conferences in my opinion, because this conference has been

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Speaker 2: picked over pretty good in the last twenty years. Former

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Speaker 2: teams include Power five programs since the Louisville TCU, U

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Speaker 2: c F Houston all got their humble start in Conference USA. Also,

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Speaker 2: some strong g FI programs have you know, made their

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Speaker 2: way up the ladder ECU Marshall, Memphis, SMU, Tulsa, Tuayne

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Speaker 2: UTSA UTSA, the former champion last year. Now onto the

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Speaker 2: AAC and.

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Speaker 1: Here we go.

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Speaker 2: Let's break down the very top to win the Conference

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Speaker 2: USA this year, we got two teams right off the

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Speaker 2: bat ineligible boom that sucks. Fix this rule. NCAA Jackson

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Speaker 2: State comes in Sam Houston State. You can't bet them

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Speaker 2: to win the conference. You can't bet their win. Total

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Speaker 2: Western Kentucky even money, Liberty plus two to seventy five,

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Speaker 2: Middle Tennessee State plus five fifty, Law Tech plus eight fifty.

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Speaker 2: You TEP fourteen to one, New Mexico State eighteen to one,

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Speaker 2: and FIU fifty to one to win Conference USA. So

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Speaker 2: before we get started, let me kick it to you, colin,

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Speaker 2: what are your thoughts on Conference USA? A conference that

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Speaker 2: by most standards is the bottom of the barrel, But

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Speaker 2: in my opinion, it's going to be really interesting because

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Speaker 2: I think three or four teams can win this. I'm

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Speaker 2: excited about the FCS editions of Sam Houston and Jacksonville State,

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Speaker 2: two proud programs, one that won the spring COVID National

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Speaker 2: Championship in the FCS. In Sam Houston and Jacksonville State

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Speaker 2: with rich Rod Plenty, they got excited about down there

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Speaker 2: in Alabama. What are your thoughts on Conference USA.

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Speaker 4: I think it's a perfect conference that has come together

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Speaker 4: when in terms of footprint, when you think of Sun Belt,

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Speaker 4: you think of MAC. I think we finally got a

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Speaker 4: stable amount of teams. I hope that they don't get

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Speaker 4: picked over for I think you know, expansion is going

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Speaker 4: to slow down at some point, knock on wood. But

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Speaker 4: I think it's a good footprint, a good set of teams.

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Speaker 4: Mostly all of them are power rated within the same

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Speaker 4: one TD two TD range, so it's not like, you know,

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Speaker 4: they It's not like the AAC where we brought teams

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Speaker 4: up from Conference USA and now we got a white gap.

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Speaker 4: I hate the rule that Sam Houston State and Jacksonville

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Speaker 4: State can't make the championship game because that leaves seven

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Speaker 4: teams for two spots and that stinks. But I think

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Speaker 4: it does present a gambling opportunity. If we all remember

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Speaker 4: James Madison lit Sunbelt on fire last year, could not

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Speaker 4: play in the championship game, and then they got to

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Speaker 4: their twelfth game of the season last year Thanksgiving weekend

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Speaker 4: and absolutely went bonkers because they knew it was their

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Speaker 4: last game of the season. So keep your eyes open

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Speaker 4: on Sam Houston State and Jacksonville State when it comes

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Speaker 4: to Week thirteen football. They're going to be pump up

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Speaker 4: because they can't make a bowl. They can't make the

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Speaker 4: conference championship game.

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Speaker 2: Ian el O, I know that you love your ELFs

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Speaker 2: some gross G five football. There could be some of

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Speaker 2: that this year. But do you agree that this is

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Speaker 2: kind of wide open of those seven teams or do

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Speaker 2: you think there's the haves and the have nots at

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Speaker 2: the CUSA level.

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Speaker 6: Well, first of all, I just want to ramp for

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Speaker 6: a little bit and show off the perfect example of

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Speaker 6: why conference realignment is ruining America, ruining college football, ruining

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Speaker 6: my life, and ruining Christmas. Because it's so damn hard

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Speaker 6: to keep track of where these teams are. And if

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Speaker 6: you're not in the weeds like we are in a

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Speaker 6: diehard college til I'll be honest, I still have to

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Speaker 6: like double check every time I like. The perfect example

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Speaker 6: is for Christmas this past year, I asked my brother,

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Speaker 6: who's a Patriot fan loyal listener of the pod, to

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Speaker 6: get me a Bailey Zappi Western Kentucky jersey. Bailey Zappi

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Speaker 6: our pride and enjoy our sweet baby boy. So I

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Speaker 6: open up on Christmas this beautiful Western Kentucky Bailey Zappi

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Speaker 6: jersey that obviously has to get custom ordered from one

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Speaker 6: of those Chinese sites, and unfortunately the Chinese are not

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Speaker 6: up to date on their conference realignments as of ten years.

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Speaker 6: It has a freaking sun belt patch on it. They

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Speaker 6: haven't been in the sun Belt in ten years. So

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Speaker 6: I am the proud one of one owner of a

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Speaker 6: Bailey Zappi sun Belt Western Kentucky jersey.

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Speaker 2: Does that also have the Russell Athletic, Nike, Adidas under Armor,

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Speaker 2: all the logos?

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Speaker 6: It has the Russell Athletic where we go sun belt

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Speaker 6: on the other one of one Bailey Zappi.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's see that's a perfect you know, pivot point.

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Speaker 2: Let's talk about Western Kentucky. They're the favorite. There are

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Speaker 2: even money to win this thing.

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Speaker 3: The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, the pride of the Commonwealth.

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Speaker 4: Oh no, no, hell no, no, hell no.

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Speaker 2: They were nine to five last year overall, six and

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Speaker 2: two in conference. The winter will set at eight. Sixty

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Speaker 2: percent of their offensive line starts return their negative two

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Speaker 2: in net tarp. Thanks to Colin Wilson for doing all

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Speaker 2: that exhaustive research. For those uninitiated, the tarp is the

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Speaker 2: transfers and returning production put together negative four on defense.

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Speaker 2: So with only eight returning starters plus their punter, it's

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Speaker 2: all on Austin Reid. Who are they able to pull

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Speaker 2: back out of the portal With a little nil handshake,

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Speaker 2: he gets a six figure deal. They bring in Drew Hollingsovett.

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Speaker 6: And he got a corvette too.

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Speaker 2: And he got a Corvette. Drew hollingstad in his offensive

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Speaker 2: coordinator for Mississippi Sate. So they're going to keep slinging

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Speaker 2: the ball all over the yard. Malachi Corley is a

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Speaker 2: monster in one over one hundred catches thirteen hundred yards

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Speaker 2: eleven tds. Last year they got some new pieces on

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Speaker 2: the perimeter. Doesn't necessarily worry me. River Helms is a

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Speaker 2: name to keep an eye on at tight end Xavion

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Speaker 2: Capers from Auburn and Jimmy Holliday from Tennessee come into

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Speaker 2: bolster that receiving room. But this is where I start

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Speaker 2: to have issues, and this is why I'm more of

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Speaker 2: a liberty guy. For the confines of this podcast. The

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Speaker 2: Hilltopper defense worries me. Only three returning starters. Their strength

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Speaker 2: is in the secondary, but that same secondary finished eight

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Speaker 2: fourth against the pass last year, only one returning starter

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Speaker 2: in their front seven. Yes, they added some power five

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Speaker 2: transfers from A and M and Nebraska, but they're not

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Speaker 2: even confirmed starters on their defensive line. So my issue

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Speaker 2: is really the quality of players that they have on defense.

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Speaker 2: And one stat that is glaring to me that we

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Speaker 2: hammer USC on all the time, this team was a frickin'

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Speaker 2: luck box in terms of turnovers. Last year. They're plus

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Speaker 2: thirty two in terms of turnovers gain that led the nation.

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Speaker 2: Year before that they had thirty one turnovers. They're in

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Speaker 2: the nation. So if these balls don't start bouncing their

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Speaker 2: way and they even take you know, six or seven turnover,

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Speaker 2: you know step backwards, which would still be a great

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Speaker 2: year in terms of turnovers gained. I think this defense

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Speaker 2: is going to be their undoing. This is why I

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Speaker 2: don't think that they are priced properly to win this

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Speaker 2: conference at even money. When you look at their non

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Speaker 2: conference though, as it relates to their win total. They

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Speaker 2: play USF at home, they play a school called Houston

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Speaker 2: Christian Thought that was a prep school in each town.

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Speaker 2: They're at Ohio State and at Troy back to back

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Speaker 2: to end the non com in September, and then in

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Speaker 2: conference play they draw Liberty and Middle Tennessee State at home.

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Speaker 2: That's ideal. So between all those components of their schedule

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Speaker 2: win total versus them winning the conference. We'll start with you, Ianell.

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Speaker 2: You just slipped on the Bailey Zappy jersey. Are you

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Speaker 2: still drinking the red kool aid there in Bowling Green, Kentucky?

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Speaker 6: Yeah? I am. And you know we tease this. We

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Speaker 6: were talking earlier about about when we went to line.

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Speaker 6: We're kind of talking. I said, I think what we

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Speaker 6: do is I make the case for Western Kentucky. You

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Speaker 6: make the case for Liberty, and then Colin could be

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Speaker 6: the tie breaker. Because I am all in on Western Kentucky.

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Speaker 6: I think they're gonna win this conference. You mentioned they

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Speaker 6: returned just three starters. But they don't need to make

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Speaker 6: as many stops as Liberty does. Who you know, we'll

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Speaker 6: get to them, also has a lot of questions. They

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Speaker 6: you know, Jock was Evans is a studds. They do

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Speaker 6: have one. They added some power five transfer on the

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Speaker 6: D line, so hopefully that shows them up. You mentioned

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Speaker 6: the turnovers. Yeah, it's gonna regress a little bit, but

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Speaker 6: they also just coach to that. Like they're very aggressive

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Speaker 6: in the secondary. It's why do they get burned on

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Speaker 6: through the past. But they also make plays like it's

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Speaker 6: kind of a little bit of what Iowa does, like

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Speaker 6: I will Everyone always says, like Iowa was fluckbox a turnover, but.

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Speaker 2: Like a little bit like ioways, pardon me, sir, are

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Speaker 2: the year of our Lord twenty twenty three. The Western

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Speaker 2: Kentucky defense does not belong in the same conversation as

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Speaker 2: the Iowahawk guys. I don't want Pete Ruth, one of

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Speaker 2: our editors here at the example when he hears this.

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Speaker 6: All right, they gamble a lot and it pays off.

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Speaker 6: Losing their center hurts on offensive line. I know you're

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Speaker 6: gonna bring that up, but they're bringing back three the

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Speaker 6: other five guys and they're just moving their right guard

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Speaker 6: to center, so it's not like they're throwing some schmuck

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Speaker 6: freshman at center. So russy stats is awesome, but I'm

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Speaker 6: not I think he's more of a gain than a

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Speaker 6: loss for Western Entucky. I think they're gonna side the

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Speaker 6: right guard over and they'll be fine. We've seen this

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Speaker 6: team replace weapons from Stearns to Tinsley, and they just

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Speaker 6: keep chucking all over the place. They've added wide receivers

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Speaker 6: from Tennessee, Auburn, Cincinnati. You look at the the from

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Speaker 6: the weakness that you know, all the good teams this

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Speaker 6: conference are basically gone. You look at all the other teams,

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Speaker 6: and we'll get to Liberty. There's not a team in

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Speaker 6: this conference that can outscore them. And at the end

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Speaker 6: of the day, the team that scores the most points

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Speaker 6: wins the game. And I don't see how any team

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Speaker 6: in this conference scores more points than them. So they

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Speaker 6: get Liberty at home, which to me is basically the tiebreaker.

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Speaker 6: You know, I think this team goes ten to two,

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Speaker 6: eleven and one. Like, I don't see how they're going

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Speaker 6: to lose to a house state and probably Troy. I

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Speaker 6: think they beat everyone else so I like them to

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Speaker 6: win the conference. I like them over eight and a half.

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Speaker 6: I don't see how anybody else outscores them.

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Speaker 2: All. Right, before I bring in here Colin Wilson to

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Speaker 2: be the tiebreaker, let me make the argument for Liberty

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Speaker 2: and then you can discuss both teams. So Liberty eight

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Speaker 2: and five is an independent. Last year, the Winter will

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Speaker 2: say eight and a half overs Juice minus one point fifty.

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Speaker 2: They also returned just about sixty percent of their offensive

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Speaker 2: line starts, ten starters in total, both specialists. They have

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Speaker 2: lots of different options of quarterback Jonathan ben At Kaiden

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Speaker 2: Salter traded. They certainly do, and I'll thank you very much.

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Speaker 2: They're essentially a wash in terms of the net tarp

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Speaker 2: there minus point five. Their defense get lost a little

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Speaker 2: bit more than their offense. But Jamie Chadwell is one

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Speaker 2: of the best coaches in college football. He guided Charleston

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Speaker 2: Southern out of the FCF's wilderness the only two times

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Speaker 2: they made the playoffs in school history he was the

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Speaker 2: head coach. Then he takes Coastal Carolina for this gimmicky

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Speaker 2: play with the teal field and goes thirty one and

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Speaker 2: six in his final three years I think people are

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Speaker 2: automatically forgetting how difficult it is to win at a

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Speaker 2: place like Coastal Carolina with the resources and commitment that

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Speaker 2: that school had when he got there, turns it around,

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Speaker 2: wins all those games in his last three years as

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Speaker 2: an underdog in his final three seasons six and two

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Speaker 2: against the spread. Six of those were straight up wins.

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Speaker 2: His offense is amazing to watch. We can get into

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Speaker 2: the scheme talk if we want, but he's going to

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Speaker 2: utilize two backs, He's going to utilize some of that

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Speaker 2: pistol action. The tight end is prominently featured, lots of

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Speaker 2: option in RPO elements. He's he's going to make it

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Speaker 2: work with one of these three quarterbacks, and they have

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Speaker 2: some fun pieces that they got in the portal. Reees

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Speaker 2: Smith from West Virginia, Quinn Cooley from Wake von Blue

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Speaker 2: a name to keep an eye on as a true

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Speaker 2: freshman could be a running back that pops and defensively,

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Speaker 2: they have a lot of experience from a secondary that

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Speaker 2: finished twenty fifth against the pass last year. They were

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Speaker 2: far and away the most disruptive defense in terms of

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Speaker 2: tackles for a loss in the entire country nine point

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Speaker 2: three per game. That's number one, and they had some

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Speaker 2: turnover in their defensive coaching staff. But I'm not panicking

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Speaker 2: because I got Jamie Chadwell righting the ship. The schedule,

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Speaker 2: in my opinion, is a plus. That's why I'm over

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Speaker 2: on the win total. They open with Bowling Green, then

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Speaker 2: New Mexico State at home, at Buffalo, at FIU, at

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Speaker 2: Sam Houston, and then at Jacksonville State, all in the

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Speaker 2: beginning of the season. That's going to give them a

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Speaker 2: nice little introduction to Conference USA football. I could see

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Speaker 2: them starting undefeated throughout middle of October, and then the

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Speaker 2: whole season comes down to Middle Tennessee stay at home

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Speaker 2: in Western Kentucky on the road in mid October. I

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Speaker 2: love the Flames here, I love Chadwell, break the tide

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Speaker 2: force well.

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Speaker 1: For Western Kentucky.

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Speaker 4: You know, I have them projected at eight wins, so

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Speaker 4: I would go under the eight and a half that

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Speaker 4: there's plenty of that out there. And there's a lot

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Speaker 4: of things that I don't like about this team. They're

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Speaker 4: in their third offensive coordinator regime in the last three years.

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Speaker 4: You wonder if that starts to have a water down effect,

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Speaker 4: maybe a deluded not as potent offense, and you know,

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Speaker 4: you have to respect your indicators. This team was extremely

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Speaker 4: lucky in turnover margin. There's a second order win total

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Speaker 4: here that had me downgrade their power rating over the offseason.

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Speaker 4: And then when you look at the schedule, like I

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Speaker 4: couldn't believe it. When I kind of typed it in,

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Speaker 4: I was like, what's the projection against Troy? And turns

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Speaker 4: out Troy is going to be about an eleven point

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Speaker 4: favorite against Western Kentucky, which was way higher than I thought.

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Speaker 1: So and I'm not alone there.

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Speaker 4: The other respected power ratings actually had it a little

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Speaker 4: bit worse. I think gues p plus made it about thirteen.

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Speaker 4: So you know, they have no chance to win the

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Speaker 4: Ohio State game whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: We'll talk about l Tech. I think they're much improved.

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Speaker 4: And then that Liberty game is going to be about

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Speaker 4: a three and a half point game, so there is

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Speaker 4: a lot of chances for loss on this schedule. I'm

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Speaker 4: not a fan of teams that have defensive line and

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Speaker 4: secondary rebuilds with portal. That just means you're really scrambling

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Speaker 4: to get something done. Twenty six percent of the defense

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Speaker 4: is back, that's not very good. They return less than

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Speaker 4: twenty five percent of their pressure. So I'm on an

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Speaker 4: under with the Western Kentucky on their win total. The

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Speaker 4: team that's winning this conference is Liberty. I have already

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Speaker 4: pushed money over on plus two to eighty. I would

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Speaker 4: take it down to plus two forty. I think that

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Speaker 4: the true odds on that should be about plus two

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Speaker 4: twenty five if you want to go that far. And

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Speaker 4: you know, Ianello says that Western Kentucky has the best

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Speaker 4: offense in Conference USA, and that might be true, but

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Speaker 4: Dayta Hunter might have something to say about that. You know,

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Speaker 4: he is still at Liberty and he's going to be.

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Speaker 1: There for him.

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Speaker 4: Chadwell inherits a quarterback, a running back, a whole bunch

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Speaker 4: of offensive line depth. They are a projected favorite, and

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Speaker 4: eleven games they're going to be about a three point

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Speaker 4: underdog to Western Kentucky. And I don't think people understand,

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Speaker 4: like I Calbreys, you really hit on it. There is

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Speaker 4: like what Chadwell is able to do with this freeze

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Speaker 4: option spur rpo is He's been able to get it

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Speaker 4: to work everywhere that he's gone. So you have to

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Speaker 4: wonder like if that means they're going to be a

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Speaker 4: dropping grayce and McCall this year at Coastal Carolina. But

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Speaker 4: you know, I have no issues with this defense whatsoever.

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Speaker 4: You know, they're they're there. They were one of the

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Speaker 4: most havoc minded defenses in the nation last year. A

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Speaker 4: lot of that's going to carry over, even though most

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Speaker 4: of their coaching staff did go with Hugh Freeze. They

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Speaker 4: led fbs and tackles for loss last year. That's going

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Speaker 4: to carry over to this year. Schedule is conducive. You

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Speaker 4: mentioned that Calabres Liberty is the team that you're gonna

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Speaker 4: want to bet. But you know, on top of all this, guys,

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Speaker 4: only seven teams can get into two spots. I don't

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Speaker 4: care if they fill the number one or the number

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Speaker 4: two spot. If you're taking a plus two eighty ticket,

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Speaker 4: that is a very nice number to take into a

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Speaker 4: championship game and possibly hit the other side.

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Speaker 6: Oh, just through a bottle real quick. Let me just

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Speaker 6: say I love Chadwell, and I do think Liberty will

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Speaker 6: dominate this league for a long time. I just think

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Speaker 6: Chadwell hasn't had time to recruit yet fully implement his system.

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Speaker 6: You mentioned it. Their schedule is cheeks, so they do

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Speaker 6: probably go eleven to one, but they're gonna lose to

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Speaker 6: Western Kentucky twice. And to me, there's three kind of

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Speaker 6: red flags I was looking when I was digging through

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Speaker 6: them that kind of stuck out to me. For if

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Speaker 6: you count the fact that their defense is replacing all

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Speaker 6: their good players. You mentioned the turnover on the defensive

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Speaker 6: coaching staff. This was kind of weird to me was

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Speaker 6: when Chadwell took over, you mentioned it. Most of the

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Speaker 6: staff went with Hugh Freeze. The only on field coach

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Speaker 6: they retained was Jack Curtis to be the co defensive coordinator.

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Speaker 6: He'd been the defensive coordinator. Well, he went through spring

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Speaker 6: practice and then just like is now no longer a coach.

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Speaker 6: I don't know if he quit, if he got fired.

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Speaker 6: That is super strange to me. That is so rare

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Speaker 6: that all of a sudden their DC is just like

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Speaker 6: randomly not their coach anymore. There's no announcement. They've never

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Speaker 6: said why or what happened or anything. He's just like

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Speaker 6: not there. That's red flag. I think that's super weird.

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Speaker 6: The other thing in this transfer portal era, and you

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Speaker 6: see it everywhere these days, do you think it's weird

354
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Speaker 6: that Chadwell did not bring a single kid from Coastal

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Speaker 6: Carolina with him, a coastal team that was very good

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Speaker 6: and had a lot of good players. Why did nobody

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Speaker 6: go with him? I think that's super weird.

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Speaker 1: I don't know why.

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Speaker 6: I'm not like insinuate anything. I just think it's weird

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Speaker 6: that no one went with him or he didn't want

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Speaker 6: anybody with him. And then I'm super concerned about this

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Speaker 6: quarterback battle because the spring is the kind of like,

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Speaker 6: we have so much confidence and this guy's looked great

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Speaker 6: and he's he's doing so good. And all the reports

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Speaker 6: I was reading out of Liberty was they had a

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Speaker 6: four man quarterback battle and betting Jonathan Bennett, Cayden Salter,

367
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Speaker 6: Nate Hampton, and Trey Lowe from Southern miss And every

368
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Speaker 6: report I read said none of them looked good in

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Speaker 6: the spring. And I just want to play this clip.

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Speaker 6: I hope it comes through because I want to shout

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Speaker 6: out Jonathan Bennett because he is responsible for my favorite

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Speaker 6: clip in the history of Colin and stuff. Yes show,

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Speaker 6: I went found it last night. I hope you ask

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Speaker 6: can hear it through this microphone?

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Speaker 7: It's come back to be Gardner webbing at home by

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Speaker 7: one Why well, they have some injuries of receiver.

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Speaker 6: But Bennett, the kid Bennett.

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Speaker 1: Started a quarterback.

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Speaker 7: He's awful for liberty, like enormous Downer.

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Speaker 6: He's a clown.

381
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Speaker 7: I'm sure he's a nice kid, but the quarterback is

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Speaker 7: not as strong as suit for.

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Speaker 6: Right now, he's a clown. I'm sure he's a nice kid,

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Speaker 6: but quarterback is not his strong suit. All right, you

385
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Speaker 6: want that guy to you against Austin Reid, good luck?

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Speaker 4: Well listen, First off, the best quarterback on this roster

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Speaker 4: is Kayden Salter, all right?

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Speaker 1: Correct.

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Speaker 4: Second off, when new head coaches, when new head, unless

390
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Speaker 4: you're Dave Randa, when coaches come into these situations, they're

391
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Speaker 4: never going to give love to one quarterback or another

392
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Speaker 4: or else. The other quarterbacks are going to hit the portal, unless,

393
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Speaker 4: like I said, you're honest like Dave Randa. And then

394
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Speaker 4: Bohannon's in the portal and on his way to South Florida.

395
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Speaker 4: So I'm not worried about their quarterback situation. And you know,

396
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Speaker 4: is it interesting that no one came with him from

397
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Speaker 4: coastal could be a thing where Chattwow wanted to clean break.

398
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Speaker 4: I mean, there's a rowdy roster that he had in

399
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Speaker 4: Coastal Carolina. I mean there was some off field trouble.

400
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Speaker 4: There's some attitude. We've seen penalties on the field. A

401
00:19:11,600 --> 00:19:12,639
Speaker 4: team had an edge to him.

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Speaker 6: You know, maybe Chadwan can't anybody to leave Myrtle Beach.

403
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Speaker 4: I wouldn't leave either, but you know, but to go

404
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Speaker 4: to a radical religion school like this.

405
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Speaker 1: But still they're winning the conference.

406
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Speaker 2: All right, let's talk about the middle class here in conference.

407
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Speaker 2: To us say, because it's robust, there's about four teams.

408
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Speaker 2: You could argue could go eight and four, could go

409
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Speaker 2: four and eight. Let's start with middle Tennessee their win

410
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Speaker 2: total set six and a half minus one thirty on

411
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Speaker 2: the over they won eight and five last year, four

412
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Speaker 2: and four in conference. They returned three quarters of their

413
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Speaker 2: offensive line starts twelve starters, their kicker Matt Vadiado at quarterback,

414
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Speaker 2: who has experienced when the Bahamas Bowl two years ago

415
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Speaker 2: against Toledo. But they're minus seven overall in net tarp

416
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Speaker 2: all those minus seven points coming from their offense. And

417
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Speaker 2: if we're being honest, the Blue Raiders last year, what

418
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Speaker 2: a weird year. They upset Miami, dropping forty five points

419
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Speaker 2: Mi Americans, then they lose three straight. Then they went

420
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Speaker 2: in five to six, including Hawaii Bowl win over San

421
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Speaker 2: Diego State. I like Vadiado in Stockstill system, but they

422
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Speaker 2: still need to work in new receivers. Their O line

423
00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:13,040
Speaker 2: is going to be strong, as I mentioned, but it's

424
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Speaker 2: probably going to be running back by committee. Frank Pleasant

425
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Speaker 2: Junior Jayden Kreedle from NIU. They have a strong run defense.

426
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Speaker 2: The problem in my opinion is that it's not strong

427
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Speaker 2: run defenses they're going to get you over the top

428
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Speaker 2: in this conference. They got to be able to stop

429
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Speaker 2: the pass against Western, Kentucky and LA Tech and they

430
00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,280
Speaker 2: got shredded through the air last year. And then you

431
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Speaker 2: look in terms of confidence. They open in Tuscaloosa against Alabama,

432
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Speaker 2: then they go to Zoo and they also catch Colorado

433
00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:40,879
Speaker 2: State in the non conference. Those are some teams that

434
00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 2: can drop some points on them. They also go to

435
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:47,760
Speaker 2: Western and to Liberty. So all of my enthusiasm looking

436
00:20:47,760 --> 00:20:49,600
Speaker 2: through this team and what they have on the run

437
00:20:49,600 --> 00:20:52,080
Speaker 2: game and being able to stop the run, it basically

438
00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:53,680
Speaker 2: just the air came out of the balloon. Once I

439
00:20:53,760 --> 00:20:55,400
Speaker 2: looked at this schedule, What are your thoughts here going?

440
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is this is my biggest underticket of the

441
00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:02,040
Speaker 4: entire podcast. When it comes to this conference, they returned

442
00:21:02,119 --> 00:21:05,760
Speaker 4: less than I mean percent of their passing yards. They

443
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:09,040
Speaker 4: returned to forty four percent of their pass breakups. The

444
00:21:09,080 --> 00:21:12,560
Speaker 4: depth chart is completely wide open everywhere going through fall camp.

445
00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:16,760
Speaker 4: But one thing that when we're sitting here in July

446
00:21:17,640 --> 00:21:20,160
Speaker 4: and I look at this schedule with teams like Middle

447
00:21:20,200 --> 00:21:23,879
Speaker 4: Tennessee State that want that money, right, they want that

448
00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:27,000
Speaker 4: money in their non conference play, that's great. But when

449
00:21:27,040 --> 00:21:30,280
Speaker 4: you play Alabama and Missouri consecutively on the road, you

450
00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,560
Speaker 4: could be taking a roster full of injuries into Murray State,

451
00:21:33,640 --> 00:21:35,200
Speaker 4: Colorado State, and Western Kentucky.

452
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:37,400
Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, you're gonna get that money.

453
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,040
Speaker 4: Which, by the way, Stock still qu it up Mitchell

454
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:42,919
Speaker 4: that audio ad that he dropped after winning beating Miami

455
00:21:42,960 --> 00:21:44,879
Speaker 4: last year. They gave us one point five million, and

456
00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:47,560
Speaker 4: we gave them one point six yards per carry. They

457
00:21:47,600 --> 00:21:51,200
Speaker 4: averaged one point six yards per carry. They gave us

458
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,000
Speaker 4: one point five million, but they got one point six

459
00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,320
Speaker 4: yards per care. Might be the coach drop in history.

460
00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 4: No Chase Cunningham here. They lost their top three targets.

461
00:22:01,240 --> 00:22:03,920
Speaker 4: Nobody really knows what the product is going to be

462
00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:05,840
Speaker 4: on the field or what they're going to execute because

463
00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:07,199
Speaker 4: we don't know the abilities of the people that are

464
00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 4: going to be playing. They run a very aggressive blitz

465
00:22:09,520 --> 00:22:11,280
Speaker 4: style and in the four to three that could be

466
00:22:11,359 --> 00:22:14,760
Speaker 4: boom or busts. They're just missing way too much here.

467
00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 4: I know when Tarp is very mean on returning experience

468
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,680
Speaker 4: that my wind totals get a little like one and

469
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 4: a half away from the market, But generally they're not wrong.

470
00:22:24,840 --> 00:22:27,359
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm with you, Colin. I love when I have

471
00:22:27,440 --> 00:22:30,160
Speaker 6: something written down and you say you're on it smart.

472
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:32,720
Speaker 6: I agree, It's like it's hard to know what you're

473
00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,000
Speaker 6: getting out of the quarterback. They lose their top three

474
00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:38,719
Speaker 6: leading receivers. I like Frank President running back, but they

475
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,240
Speaker 6: can't really run the ball like he's I think he's good,

476
00:22:41,320 --> 00:22:43,160
Speaker 6: but like they don't really have success running, So it's

477
00:22:43,200 --> 00:22:46,000
Speaker 6: kind of weird situation. Defense creates a ton of havoc

478
00:22:46,040 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 6: and it was good last year, but you know, they

479
00:22:47,359 --> 00:22:49,879
Speaker 6: lose Jordan Ferguson. They lose to Kory and Patterson. On

480
00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:53,240
Speaker 6: the back end. They have, you know, decent players of

481
00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:55,520
Speaker 6: the secondary, but then you look at their numbers. They're

482
00:22:55,560 --> 00:22:58,240
Speaker 6: similar to Western Kentucky where they're they're pretty leaky against

483
00:22:58,280 --> 00:23:00,359
Speaker 6: the pass, but they do force a ton of turns

484
00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,320
Speaker 6: to make up for it. So they had a ton

485
00:23:02,359 --> 00:23:04,879
Speaker 6: of turnovers last year. So if that, if that regresses,

486
00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,960
Speaker 6: then you wonder if that defense is even worse. They're

487
00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,840
Speaker 6: fifty first in defense last year, ninety eighth in offense.

488
00:23:11,080 --> 00:23:13,560
Speaker 6: I don't have to think they're gonna be similar numbers

489
00:23:13,760 --> 00:23:15,800
Speaker 6: this year. They're kind of you know, the defense will

490
00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 6: be better than the offense, but neither is that great.

491
00:23:18,640 --> 00:23:20,360
Speaker 6: And you look at the schedule and you mentioned it.

492
00:23:20,400 --> 00:23:24,360
Speaker 6: To get to seven wins, they basically have to win

493
00:23:24,560 --> 00:23:27,679
Speaker 6: every game they're favored in, and I just don't know

494
00:23:27,720 --> 00:23:30,879
Speaker 6: that they're good enough to do that. And unfortunately you mentioned,

495
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,199
Speaker 6: you know, they don't get to play cupcakes like Miami

496
00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:36,240
Speaker 6: again this year, so you're gonna you're gonna lose a

497
00:23:36,280 --> 00:23:37,160
Speaker 6: couple more wins there.

498
00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,040
Speaker 4: I think another thing that should be noted is that

499
00:23:40,080 --> 00:23:43,159
Speaker 4: I do not like backing teams when their opponents in

500
00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:46,200
Speaker 4: November come off bye weeks. Florida or National UTEP in

501
00:23:46,280 --> 00:23:49,119
Speaker 4: November both come off of a bye week. I you know,

502
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:51,119
Speaker 4: we've done studies on bye weeks and what teams do

503
00:23:51,200 --> 00:23:53,320
Speaker 4: against the spread, I think it's a little bit coach dependent.

504
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:55,600
Speaker 4: Do you have the structure the Andy Reid of the

505
00:23:55,720 --> 00:23:58,080
Speaker 4: NFL and what he's able to do. But in general,

506
00:23:58,160 --> 00:24:01,640
Speaker 4: in college football, when the these student athletes get to November,

507
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:04,720
Speaker 4: they're exhausted. And you start the season with Alabama and

508
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:06,760
Speaker 4: Missouri and then two of your conference opponents have a

509
00:24:06,760 --> 00:24:09,360
Speaker 4: buy in November before you under all the way.

510
00:24:10,840 --> 00:24:13,760
Speaker 2: All right, let's turn to another middle class citizen. La Tech.

511
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:16,359
Speaker 2: Their win total said at six, which is a little

512
00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:18,199
Speaker 2: bit surprising because they went three to nine last year,

513
00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:21,200
Speaker 2: two and six in conference play. They returned three corridors

514
00:24:21,240 --> 00:24:24,119
Speaker 2: of their line starts. They got ten starters in total.

515
00:24:24,280 --> 00:24:26,880
Speaker 2: Hank Bachmeyer, come on down. You are now in charge

516
00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:29,359
Speaker 2: of the offense that was negative five and net tarp

517
00:24:29,560 --> 00:24:32,640
Speaker 2: year over year. Can they protect Tammer and Hank That's

518
00:24:32,680 --> 00:24:34,679
Speaker 2: really the question here, because they got Smoke Harris, they

519
00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:37,440
Speaker 2: got Cyrus Allen on the perimeter. The guy's thrown for

520
00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,280
Speaker 2: over six thousand yards in his career, basically two to

521
00:24:40,280 --> 00:24:43,080
Speaker 2: one touchdown interception ratio. But he gets hurt when he

522
00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:46,520
Speaker 2: gets hit, so can they keep him upright? And then defensively,

523
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:49,680
Speaker 2: let's just be Frank here. Their defense was trash last year.

524
00:24:49,880 --> 00:24:53,000
Speaker 2: Scott Power was a good FCS coach at Stephen F.

525
00:24:53,000 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: Austin.

526
00:24:53,320 --> 00:24:56,400
Speaker 2: He brings in a few transfers finally from that program.

527
00:24:56,440 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 2: But those are FCS kids working their way up to conference.

528
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:02,080
Speaker 2: You us say, I'm not sure they're going to be

529
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:04,560
Speaker 2: that much better defensively, and then when you look at

530
00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 2: their schedule, certainly workable FIU in northwestern state, North Texas

531
00:25:08,760 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 2: at home, you know, Western Kentucky at home at Middle

532
00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:16,720
Speaker 2: Tennessee at Liberty six just seems too rich for my blood.

533
00:25:16,720 --> 00:25:18,280
Speaker 2: I'm going to go under here. I'm going to bank

534
00:25:18,320 --> 00:25:21,719
Speaker 2: on Bachmeyer getting knocked out at some point, losing Trey Harris.

535
00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:23,720
Speaker 2: I also don't think that can be overstated. I know

536
00:25:23,760 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 2: they still have a good receiving room, but he was

537
00:25:25,680 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 2: a stud. So I'm going to go down on the

538
00:25:28,359 --> 00:25:29,760
Speaker 2: boys from ruston. What do you think? Callin?

539
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:33,520
Speaker 4: I like this team, and my win total projection says

540
00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:36,399
Speaker 4: I don't. I have them at five point two, but

541
00:25:36,680 --> 00:25:39,520
Speaker 4: I do like the positives on this team. You know

542
00:25:39,600 --> 00:25:42,119
Speaker 4: that with the I love their new DC. They have

543
00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:44,959
Speaker 4: a solid offensive line, and we know what Bachmeyer can

544
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:46,919
Speaker 4: do with the deep ball, right if he is healthy,

545
00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:49,160
Speaker 4: and he is upright, and he is protected. He can

546
00:25:49,240 --> 00:25:51,960
Speaker 4: hit anybody forty yards down the field, So you know,

547
00:25:51,960 --> 00:25:53,480
Speaker 4: from that perspective, and they have a real good running

548
00:25:53,480 --> 00:25:54,320
Speaker 4: back Marcus Crosby.

549
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 1: You know, offensively, I.

550
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,000
Speaker 4: Don't think they're going to be challenged as much as

551
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 4: some of these other teams in this conference.

552
00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:01,320
Speaker 1: They finished.

553
00:26:01,320 --> 00:26:04,240
Speaker 4: This team finished fifteenth in passing EPA last year. They

554
00:26:04,280 --> 00:26:06,199
Speaker 4: already know how to explode. They get the majority of

555
00:26:06,200 --> 00:26:09,040
Speaker 4: their offensive line back, seventy three percent of the defense

556
00:26:09,080 --> 00:26:12,040
Speaker 4: comes back. But still when I go up against the schedule,

557
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:15,040
Speaker 4: it all comes out in an equation to five point

558
00:26:15,040 --> 00:26:17,080
Speaker 4: two wins. And this is a team that I think

559
00:26:17,080 --> 00:26:19,400
Speaker 4: can surprise. I was actually waiting for this podcast. See

560
00:26:19,400 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 4: if you guys can convince me whether this team was maybe,

561
00:26:23,160 --> 00:26:26,320
Speaker 4: you know, quietly lurking in the shadows, waiting to come

562
00:26:26,320 --> 00:26:28,480
Speaker 4: out and win a bunch of games. But you know,

563
00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:31,600
Speaker 4: if Bachmeer is protected, which he should be with all

564
00:26:31,640 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 4: this experience on the offensive line, they should have a

565
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:35,400
Speaker 4: couple of upsets.

566
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:39,399
Speaker 6: So the thing to note too about this conference that

567
00:26:39,720 --> 00:26:42,919
Speaker 6: I don't know if anyone mentioned at the top, because

568
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,520
Speaker 6: they lost so much, they have to play four non

569
00:26:45,560 --> 00:26:48,320
Speaker 6: conference games. So that kind of makes a lot of

570
00:26:48,320 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 6: their schedules harder because if you look at most of

571
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:54,719
Speaker 6: them play one cupcake and then like three pretty good teams,

572
00:26:54,720 --> 00:26:56,960
Speaker 6: like you know, louis Anta's the perfect example where it's

573
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:59,719
Speaker 6: like they're probably going to lose to Sebu North Texas

574
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:02,840
Speaker 6: and you know, maybe they get North Texas. But that

575
00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 6: makes it a lot harder when you're looking at these

576
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:07,800
Speaker 6: win totals. And I'm actually in the exact same boat

577
00:27:07,800 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 6: as Colin. I'm gonna say something stunning. Again, everyone who

578
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,360
Speaker 6: listens to the show knows what I think at Hank Blackmeyer.

579
00:27:14,960 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 6: But he's probably an upgrade over McNeil, Liddy, Downing Turner

580
00:27:20,240 --> 00:27:22,439
Speaker 6: and all the other scrubs that this team throughout their

581
00:27:22,520 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 6: last year. So that is a positive. He'll have experience

582
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 6: that offensive line they return. You know, markys Crosby, you

583
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:31,600
Speaker 6: mentioned that running back they're going in the electric score

584
00:27:31,640 --> 00:27:35,160
Speaker 6: Williams from Baylor. Speaking of electric smoke Harris is back.

585
00:27:35,520 --> 00:27:38,280
Speaker 6: They add, you know, from a Nebraska player, the coldest

586
00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,520
Speaker 6: Crawford score Williams Smoke Harris to cold c this.

587
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:44,679
Speaker 4: Is where's the nil deal? On does does the coldest?

588
00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:46,440
Speaker 4: He was running all those air conditioning ads.

589
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,960
Speaker 6: Up in Lincoln in Louisiana a lot more than Nebraska,

590
00:27:49,960 --> 00:27:52,520
Speaker 6: I tell you that much. Wow, And I mean, is

591
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 6: this does it do? They have the three best names

592
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:58,480
Speaker 6: in college football, Smoke Harris and the coldest Crawford. This

593
00:27:58,520 --> 00:28:01,679
Speaker 6: is an all named team. You mentioned that defense was horrific,

594
00:28:01,880 --> 00:28:04,680
Speaker 6: but they added twelve transfers to the portal, so we'll

595
00:28:04,680 --> 00:28:07,000
Speaker 6: see if they take a step better, a step four.

596
00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 6: They got torchs against the run. I think they'll be better.

597
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,520
Speaker 6: I think they're probably a good over team. The law

598
00:28:12,600 --> 00:28:14,920
Speaker 6: Tech SMU game is going to be an absolute shootout,

599
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 6: kind of similar to Middle Tennessee. When you look at

600
00:28:19,640 --> 00:28:22,639
Speaker 6: this schedule, you know again, I think Western Kentucky and

601
00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:25,919
Speaker 6: Liberty are both going to basically sweep the conference. I

602
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,080
Speaker 6: think they're way ahead of everyone else, so LA Tech

603
00:28:29,520 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 6: basically has to beat every other team to hit this

604
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 6: win total. I actually think they're the third best team

605
00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 6: in this conference. I will say that, but it's what

606
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,120
Speaker 6: you said. Bachmeyer is going to cost this team a game.

607
00:28:41,160 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 6: Their defense is probably gonna cost them a game. So

608
00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:44,800
Speaker 6: when I'm looking at the schedule, I'm like, they have

609
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,160
Speaker 6: to beat every team. Their favorite against They're not good

610
00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 6: enough to do that. So I'm with you. I'm not

611
00:28:49,440 --> 00:28:51,520
Speaker 6: gonna play the under, but I would before the over.

612
00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:54,200
Speaker 6: I don't Bachmeyer in this defense will cost them games

613
00:28:54,240 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 6: they shouldn't lose. So let's wrap back from what I

614
00:28:57,160 --> 00:28:59,760
Speaker 6: said at the very beginning of this podcast. When you

615
00:28:59,800 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 6: have a team like James Madison that's not allowed to

616
00:29:02,000 --> 00:29:04,400
Speaker 6: play in their conference championship game, they're going to treat

617
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:05,600
Speaker 6: the last game of the season like.

618
00:29:05,560 --> 00:29:06,120
Speaker 1: The super Bowl.

619
00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:10,080
Speaker 4: Well, Jacksonville State and rich Rod are on a bye

620
00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:12,080
Speaker 4: week before they play their last game of the season

621
00:29:12,080 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 4: against Laate Tech. I know there's no Game of the

622
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 4: Year market out there for this conference, but if there was,

623
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:18,200
Speaker 4: I'd be hammering Jacksonville State.

624
00:29:18,200 --> 00:29:19,160
Speaker 1: So that's another thing.

625
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 6: And I meant to say the same thing about the

626
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,000
Speaker 6: last Middle Tennessee plays Sam Houston n the year.

627
00:29:23,120 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, all right, let's hop to a team that

628
00:29:27,280 --> 00:29:29,840
Speaker 2: we love on this podcast, Minor Nation picks up.

629
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:33,680
Speaker 3: We're talking Minor Nation out.

630
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,280
Speaker 1: In the West. Dixons Town of l Past.

631
00:29:37,600 --> 00:29:38,200
Speaker 3: Picks up.

632
00:29:39,240 --> 00:29:40,880
Speaker 2: Just to tee this up. The win total set of

633
00:29:40,920 --> 00:29:44,360
Speaker 2: five and a half. They got negative four on the nettarp.

634
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,320
Speaker 2: They only got ten returning starters. Three fifths of their

635
00:29:47,360 --> 00:29:50,800
Speaker 2: offensive line starts are back sell me on the minors.

636
00:29:51,040 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 6: So I mentioned that me and bridesman to launch the

637
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,200
Speaker 6: other day and we were kind of teasing what we

638
00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:56,040
Speaker 6: want to talk about, and I was saying how I

639
00:29:56,080 --> 00:29:59,200
Speaker 6: was nervous, how were turning heel on Fresno State and

640
00:30:00,040 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 6: you probably and UTAP and we both like yeah, And

641
00:30:03,000 --> 00:30:06,440
Speaker 6: then I started diving in breeze. I'm gonna need you

642
00:30:06,640 --> 00:30:09,440
Speaker 6: and probably calling to to talk me off this ledge

643
00:30:09,480 --> 00:30:12,200
Speaker 6: because the more I dug in, the more I like

644
00:30:12,320 --> 00:30:15,200
Speaker 6: this team. Their offense should be better. Okay, they have

645
00:30:15,240 --> 00:30:17,840
Speaker 6: a great running back. They have a three year starter

646
00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 6: at quarterback. Tyron Smith's back at receiver. He transferred to

647
00:30:21,280 --> 00:30:23,720
Speaker 6: Texas A and M for spring practice, stole all their secrets,

648
00:30:23,720 --> 00:30:25,840
Speaker 6: not that their offense had any, and now he's back

649
00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:30,560
Speaker 6: at UTEP, which is massive. And you know, they might

650
00:30:30,600 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 6: have the best offensive line in the conference, even without

651
00:30:33,000 --> 00:30:34,880
Speaker 6: Jeremiah Bviers, who obviously was a big loss. But I

652
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:38,680
Speaker 6: still think their old line is very, very good. They're

653
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:40,960
Speaker 6: you know, the run defense was really good last year.

654
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 6: It should be again. They have some studs up front,

655
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:45,080
Speaker 6: and pass defense is a mess needs to get better,

656
00:30:45,160 --> 00:30:46,880
Speaker 6: So that's kind of the big like I need them

657
00:30:46,920 --> 00:30:50,400
Speaker 6: to be better. What's so weird about them is they're

658
00:30:50,720 --> 00:30:53,360
Speaker 6: they just they They're play calling just for some reason

659
00:30:53,440 --> 00:30:57,600
Speaker 6: isn't very good. They promoted offensive coordinator from within, which

660
00:30:57,640 --> 00:31:00,360
Speaker 6: I hate. Dave dimmol is still calling plays, so who

661
00:31:00,360 --> 00:31:04,280
Speaker 6: knows that that'll be any better? Like when I look

662
00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:06,760
Speaker 6: at this team on paper, I feel like they should

663
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:09,600
Speaker 6: be good, but the more I'm just not sure they

664
00:31:09,640 --> 00:31:13,000
Speaker 6: will be. And they only play four bowl teams from

665
00:31:13,080 --> 00:31:18,120
Speaker 6: last year. So my two questions are am I wrong?

666
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:23,440
Speaker 6: Should I talk myself into betting this over? And follow

667
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:27,240
Speaker 6: up question if I don't, is it because Dave dimmo

668
00:31:27,320 --> 00:31:29,760
Speaker 6: is a bad coach? I think if they don't make

669
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 6: a ball, he's fired, because when I look at this team,

670
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 6: I think he's the only He's seventeen and forty at UTEP.

671
00:31:36,160 --> 00:31:39,200
Speaker 6: If they don't make a ball, be given what I'm

672
00:31:39,240 --> 00:31:42,680
Speaker 6: looking at, I think it's because of him.

673
00:31:43,360 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 4: Twenty first crack at that one hundred and twenty second

674
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:49,120
Speaker 4: offensive finishing drives with a quarterback like Gavin Hardison that

675
00:31:49,240 --> 00:31:51,920
Speaker 4: is completely on the coaching Dan and Demmel comes from

676
00:31:52,000 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 4: Kansas State. He has not been able to replicate what

677
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:56,920
Speaker 4: Kansas State did when he was there under Bill Snyder.

678
00:31:59,240 --> 00:32:00,320
Speaker 1: It's not gonna get any better.

679
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 4: I think with Scotti O'Hara, you know, promoted from wide

680
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:06,720
Speaker 4: receivers coach. There is good on this team. There's three

681
00:32:06,800 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 4: six year seniors on the offensive line that's needed. But

682
00:32:09,800 --> 00:32:12,760
Speaker 4: the problem that I have with this team and I

683
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:14,840
Speaker 4: project them at five point six, so it's not a

684
00:32:14,880 --> 00:32:16,160
Speaker 4: play for me at five and a half. And the

685
00:32:16,200 --> 00:32:18,920
Speaker 4: reason why I'm extremely neutral and not wanting to like

686
00:32:19,000 --> 00:32:22,040
Speaker 4: this team is because your defensive line and safety you

687
00:32:22,080 --> 00:32:24,600
Speaker 4: have absolutely no experience. Sure you have guys that were

688
00:32:24,600 --> 00:32:26,080
Speaker 4: on the roster, but there is not a lot of

689
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:28,880
Speaker 4: experience at those positions whatsoever. And let me look at

690
00:32:28,920 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 4: your first game at Jacksonville State against Ritrod. I would

691
00:32:32,520 --> 00:32:34,440
Speaker 4: want to have a defensive line and some safety help

692
00:32:34,440 --> 00:32:37,440
Speaker 4: because that's exactly where they're going to target. Incarnate word

693
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,320
Speaker 4: in week two. What are we talking about the I

694
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:42,880
Speaker 4: know they're coaches left for Texas State, but we're talking

695
00:32:42,920 --> 00:32:44,680
Speaker 4: about a team that's maybe going to be top ten

696
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:50,200
Speaker 4: and FCFS offense. Again, there are some offenses on here.

697
00:32:51,120 --> 00:32:55,120
Speaker 4: Arizona with Jayden Delora there's some offenses absolutely going to

698
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 4: tear that defense up. So what are we gambling on here?

699
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,080
Speaker 4: We're gambling on the fact that Dana deml is going

700
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:03,920
Speaker 4: to figure it out on offense with Gavin Hardison. All

701
00:33:03,920 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 4: of a sudden, that makes me nervous. They never have

702
00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,640
Speaker 4: any good success, right. They have explosive passing in third downs.

703
00:33:09,680 --> 00:33:12,440
Speaker 4: I mean, they're a passing downs monster, and they're terrible

704
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,080
Speaker 4: in standard downs. And the offense has always been that way.

705
00:33:15,200 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 4: And I love you TEP, I hate it, you know.

706
00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,160
Speaker 4: I think what when we first became a podcast, when

707
00:33:20,160 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 4: we first became a company, all we could do was

708
00:33:22,560 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 4: talk about how UTEP is on the rise.

709
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:26,240
Speaker 1: I don't want to go back to a world where

710
00:33:26,240 --> 00:33:28,120
Speaker 1: I'm hating on them. But there's no way I'm betting

711
00:33:28,120 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: over here.

712
00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:31,640
Speaker 2: I agree with Colin on this unless praise am all

713
00:33:31,680 --> 00:33:34,240
Speaker 2: Away is the defensive player of the year in Conference

714
00:33:34,320 --> 00:33:36,880
Speaker 2: USA and as a monster and has twenty tackles for loss.

715
00:33:37,240 --> 00:33:40,920
Speaker 2: I see the Bradley Dale paveto defense taking another step back.

716
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:43,080
Speaker 2: We're now two years removed from them having a really

717
00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:46,240
Speaker 2: good defense in general. Beyond the things we talked about

718
00:33:46,280 --> 00:33:47,520
Speaker 2: at the front of the schedule, let's look at the

719
00:33:47,560 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 2: back of the schedule. Western Kentucky at Middle Tennessee Liberty WOOF.

720
00:33:52,360 --> 00:33:55,160
Speaker 2: So they have no room for air early in this

721
00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:57,400
Speaker 2: late they have to win the games that they can win,

722
00:33:57,880 --> 00:34:00,360
Speaker 2: and I agree. Catching Jacksonville State on the road in

723
00:34:00,400 --> 00:34:02,640
Speaker 2: the opener, what do you think that environment's gonna be like?

724
00:34:02,680 --> 00:34:06,200
Speaker 2: First FBS game? Rich Rod with a veteran backfield will

725
00:34:06,200 --> 00:34:08,160
Speaker 2: get to it momentarily talking about what he has and

726
00:34:08,280 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 2: Zion Webb coming back not great for you, TEP. So

727
00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:13,719
Speaker 2: I'm gonna go ahead and play the under here. I

728
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:15,200
Speaker 2: think Gavin Hardison.

729
00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 6: Are you're actually playing? You're playing the under.

730
00:34:17,360 --> 00:34:20,400
Speaker 2: I'm playing the under because I agree Gavin Harrison is

731
00:34:20,400 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 2: one of those guys who's played a lot of football,

732
00:34:22,200 --> 00:34:24,400
Speaker 2: so I know who he is, and I do not

733
00:34:24,480 --> 00:34:26,280
Speaker 2: think he's the kind of guy that can carry this offense.

734
00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 2: Even though getting his wide receiver Number one back was huge,

735
00:34:29,800 --> 00:34:32,399
Speaker 2: I do think it makes them competitive. But we're talking

736
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,520
Speaker 2: about a five win team from last year's defense is

737
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,279
Speaker 2: gonna get a little bit worse at least in terms

738
00:34:36,320 --> 00:34:38,239
Speaker 2: of the projections. So I'm gonna go ahead and play the.

739
00:34:38,280 --> 00:34:41,759
Speaker 5: Under before we go any further. As a reminder, Big

740
00:34:41,800 --> 00:34:45,440
Speaker 5: Bets on Campus is presented by bet MGM, so get

741
00:34:45,480 --> 00:34:48,399
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742
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743
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746
00:35:04,920 --> 00:35:08,720
Speaker 8: Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, at Iowa, Kansas, Louiana, Michigan, Misissippi, Nevada,

747
00:35:08,800 --> 00:35:12,440
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748
00:35:12,480 --> 00:35:15,080
Speaker 8: d C, West Virginia, Wyoming, or Ontario only. Must be

749
00:35:15,120 --> 00:35:17,160
Speaker 8: twenty one or older to wager nineteen or older in

750
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,600
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751
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752
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753
00:35:25,320 --> 00:35:26,680
Speaker 8: Michigan disassociated persons.

754
00:35:26,719 --> 00:35:27,800
Speaker 1: Please gamble responsibly.

755
00:35:27,840 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 8: Gambling problem call one one hundred next Step in Arizona

756
00:35:30,640 --> 00:35:32,719
Speaker 8: one one hundred, five two two four seven zero zero

757
00:35:32,719 --> 00:35:36,359
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758
00:35:36,360 --> 00:35:38,680
Speaker 8: eight hundred twenty seven zero seven to one one seven

759
00:35:38,719 --> 00:35:42,440
Speaker 8: for confidential help in Michigan one eight hundred gambler in Indiana, Maryland,

760
00:35:42,480 --> 00:35:45,040
Speaker 8: New Jersey or West Virginia one eight hundred bets off

761
00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,680
Speaker 8: in Iowa one hundred nine eight one zero zero two three.

762
00:35:47,719 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 8: In Puerto Rico, call eight seven seven eight hope and why,

763
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 8: or text hope and Why. In New York, call text

764
00:35:53,600 --> 00:35:56,120
Speaker 8: the Tennessee Redline at twenty one hundred eight nine nine

765
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,160
Speaker 8: seven eight nine, or call one eight eight eight seven

766
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,840
Speaker 8: seven seven nine six nine six in misiss. In Ontario,

767
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:02,840
Speaker 8: if you have questions or concerns about your gambling or

768
00:36:02,840 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 8: someone close to you, please contact Connects Ontario at one

769
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 8: eight six six five three one two six zero zero

770
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,200
Speaker 8: to speak to an advisor free charge. Sports betting is

771
00:36:09,280 --> 00:36:12,000
Speaker 8: void in Georgia, Hawaii, and Utah and other states were prohibited.

772
00:36:12,080 --> 00:36:14,439
Speaker 8: Promotional offers not available in Nevada in New York.

773
00:36:15,080 --> 00:36:17,440
Speaker 2: Let's talk about another team, the last one in my opinion,

774
00:36:17,440 --> 00:36:20,400
Speaker 2: that has that middle class moniker, Mexico State. They won

775
00:36:20,480 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 2: seven games as independent last year. I mean, let's not

776
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:24,839
Speaker 2: get too far into the weeds. They had to beat

777
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:27,359
Speaker 2: Valpo to get Bowl eligible, but their win total set

778
00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 2: at six. They have sixty five percent of their line

779
00:36:29,760 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 2: starts back. They have twelve returning starters, their placekicker and

780
00:36:33,120 --> 00:36:37,240
Speaker 2: this is officially a Diego Pavia podcast. The guy's electric

781
00:36:37,800 --> 00:36:39,960
Speaker 2: in terms of net TARP. They bring back plus three

782
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:42,560
Speaker 2: point five on offense. They went one in five to

783
00:36:42,560 --> 00:36:45,560
Speaker 2: start last year, turned on the after burners, finished seven

784
00:36:45,600 --> 00:36:49,200
Speaker 2: and six for Jerry Kill. Pavia destroyed Liberty, a team

785
00:36:49,239 --> 00:36:51,319
Speaker 2: that I'm high on. He had a six touchdown game

786
00:36:51,400 --> 00:36:53,640
Speaker 2: lay in the year to make that happen from in

787
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:56,359
Speaker 2: terms of their Bowl eligibility quickly. In Bowl he plays

788
00:36:56,400 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 2: really well against Bowling Green. They got experienced skill position players,

789
00:36:59,680 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 2: start Thomas Jamani Jones at running back. The defense was

790
00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:06,200
Speaker 2: sneaky good last year, but now they're down eight starters,

791
00:37:06,600 --> 00:37:08,520
Speaker 2: so they go to the portal again. They get Jamari

792
00:37:08,560 --> 00:37:11,520
Speaker 2: Budden from Michigan coming in to anchor the linebacking corps.

793
00:37:11,640 --> 00:37:13,200
Speaker 2: And then when I look at the first month of

794
00:37:13,239 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 2: the season, I start to smile because they get UMass.

795
00:37:16,360 --> 00:37:19,400
Speaker 2: They get Western Illinois, no disrespect to the Leathernecks, and

796
00:37:19,400 --> 00:37:21,160
Speaker 2: then they go to New Mexico. I think that's a

797
00:37:21,160 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 2: game they can win the Rio Grand Valley rivalry. So

798
00:37:25,800 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 2: when I look at all that, can they get enough

799
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:29,600
Speaker 2: wins in the first half of their schedule because the

800
00:37:29,680 --> 00:37:31,600
Speaker 2: end of the year is brutal at La Tac and

801
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:35,240
Speaker 2: rustin Middle Tennessee, at Western Kentucky, at Auburn home against

802
00:37:35,280 --> 00:37:38,839
Speaker 2: Jacksonville State not great. So you're gonna know pretty much

803
00:37:38,880 --> 00:37:41,040
Speaker 2: by the start of October if this play is live

804
00:37:41,120 --> 00:37:43,640
Speaker 2: or not. It's actually a pass for me. But from

805
00:37:43,760 --> 00:37:46,959
Speaker 2: a pure this is our guy pound on the chest

806
00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:49,600
Speaker 2: for the podcast, Diego Pavia. He's my dude. Can he

807
00:37:49,680 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 2: be our new Bailey Zappy? What are your thoughts here?

808
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,960
Speaker 6: I know, yeah, it's almost like you have my notes

809
00:37:54,120 --> 00:37:57,600
Speaker 6: written down exactly because I said love Diego Pavia. I

810
00:37:57,600 --> 00:37:59,959
Speaker 6: think they're going to be a really dangerous running team

811
00:38:00,040 --> 00:38:02,200
Speaker 6: with him and that two headed monster at running back.

812
00:38:02,520 --> 00:38:04,440
Speaker 6: I'm going you the defense was very good last year,

813
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,160
Speaker 6: especially against the past, And yeah, they did lose most

814
00:38:07,200 --> 00:38:09,799
Speaker 6: of their all their linebackers and some key piece in

815
00:38:09,800 --> 00:38:11,799
Speaker 6: the secondary, but you know, I still think Jerry kill

816
00:38:11,840 --> 00:38:14,680
Speaker 6: can get that that defense, don't Again, Yeah, they needed

817
00:38:14,719 --> 00:38:17,800
Speaker 6: the waiver to in an FCS win to become bull eligible.

818
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 1: I'm with you.

819
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:21,640
Speaker 6: I'm all I like this team. They will definitely be

820
00:38:22,080 --> 00:38:26,880
Speaker 6: a week to week podcast favorite for us. The reason

821
00:38:27,000 --> 00:38:29,560
Speaker 6: I'm staying away the most is.

822
00:38:31,320 --> 00:38:31,560
Speaker 1: Both.

823
00:38:31,840 --> 00:38:33,840
Speaker 6: I'm sure Colin will talk about it, but when I

824
00:38:33,880 --> 00:38:37,680
Speaker 6: was looking through the numbers, both Colin and sp plus

825
00:38:38,200 --> 00:38:41,640
Speaker 6: have eight of their games projected to be within one score,

826
00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,839
Speaker 6: which is terrifying because that means this win total could

827
00:38:45,840 --> 00:38:48,760
Speaker 6: go a whole lot of ways. They could be great

828
00:38:48,880 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 6: and a field goal hits an upright and they lose.

829
00:38:50,960 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 6: And so with that they don't have any That's the

830
00:38:55,040 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 6: first you know they have a couple Like first they

831
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:59,280
Speaker 6: don't have enough for sure wins. When I'm betting a team,

832
00:38:59,640 --> 00:39:02,120
Speaker 6: I kind of like to know, like you know, they're

833
00:39:02,120 --> 00:39:04,000
Speaker 6: getting five and they eat you know, like they eating

834
00:39:04,000 --> 00:39:05,759
Speaker 6: two outsets at the Winter or whatever it is. So

835
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:10,000
Speaker 6: eight one score games is terrifying. But if you do

836
00:39:10,200 --> 00:39:13,680
Speaker 6: like them, if they could beat the two new guys

837
00:39:14,239 --> 00:39:19,680
Speaker 6: fiu UMass Western Illinois and Hawaii, that's six wins, and

838
00:39:19,719 --> 00:39:23,640
Speaker 6: to me, those are games they should win. I'm just

839
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:25,040
Speaker 6: not going to take it because I think I think

840
00:39:25,040 --> 00:39:27,080
Speaker 6: they'll all be close enough games or it makes me

841
00:39:27,120 --> 00:39:27,960
Speaker 6: a little nervous.

842
00:39:28,440 --> 00:39:30,160
Speaker 4: Let me tell you why they could lose to Hawaii.

843
00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:33,839
Speaker 4: I know that there are teams that care about back

844
00:39:33,880 --> 00:39:36,759
Speaker 4: to back travel. Uh, it affects some teams that go

845
00:39:36,800 --> 00:39:39,720
Speaker 4: on the road twice in a row pulling the numbers

846
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 4: out of bet Labs. It just depends on the team.

847
00:39:42,040 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 4: It depends on the coach. Go into bet labs and

848
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 4: pull a team that's on triple road. No buys triple road.

849
00:39:49,560 --> 00:39:52,400
Speaker 4: It's like a it's like a twenty seven percent cover rate.

850
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 4: So I don't you know the spread at Hawaii at

851
00:39:55,719 --> 00:39:58,279
Speaker 4: that point. I don't know, but being the third road

852
00:39:58,320 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 4: game in a row is off. And then you look

853
00:40:01,120 --> 00:40:02,000
Speaker 4: at the rest of the schedule.

854
00:40:02,000 --> 00:40:02,480
Speaker 1: When you get to the.

855
00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:05,359
Speaker 4: Latter ladder part of the schedule, four out of five

856
00:40:05,440 --> 00:40:09,759
Speaker 4: games on the road. I mean, who set this schedule up?

857
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:14,280
Speaker 4: Why are you going to Auburn after three road games.

858
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,440
Speaker 1: At the end of the season. And then you look

859
00:40:16,440 --> 00:40:18,480
Speaker 1: at lochecks shredding out.

860
00:40:18,440 --> 00:40:20,400
Speaker 6: Pay to pay for that trip to Hawaii? What do

861
00:40:20,440 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 6: you mean? That's right, they gotta pay for the charter.

862
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:25,320
Speaker 1: Oh, Hugh Free is going to run them up a flagpole.

863
00:40:26,040 --> 00:40:28,800
Speaker 4: You know, Ltech comes off of a bye middle Tennessee

864
00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:31,640
Speaker 4: comes off of a by FIU comes off of a

865
00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:34,640
Speaker 4: by three Conference opponents come off of a bye week.

866
00:40:36,000 --> 00:40:38,080
Speaker 4: I mean I project the number at five point nine.

867
00:40:38,400 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 4: I think the market is really heavily juiced on an

868
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:44,040
Speaker 4: under six and a half, really around six. And by

869
00:40:44,080 --> 00:40:45,360
Speaker 4: the way, for those of you out there that like

870
00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,960
Speaker 4: see a half, like six six and a half, fifty

871
00:40:47,960 --> 00:40:50,000
Speaker 4: cents of juice is really what separates it. So when

872
00:40:50,080 --> 00:40:52,040
Speaker 4: you see you know, minus one sixty under six and

873
00:40:52,080 --> 00:40:54,600
Speaker 4: a half, that's really like six one minus one ten.

874
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:57,000
Speaker 4: So it's really kind of spot on there. But you

875
00:40:57,040 --> 00:40:59,760
Speaker 4: know you're missing your top four tacklers off the defensive

876
00:40:59,760 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 4: side the ball.

877
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:04,480
Speaker 1: And I think what I'm really interested in.

878
00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:08,800
Speaker 4: Is the new clock rules, and Jerry Kill has the

879
00:41:08,840 --> 00:41:11,480
Speaker 4: one hundred and sixteenth tempo in twenty nine seconds per play.

880
00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:14,239
Speaker 4: I'm not sure most of these New Mexico games, this

881
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:18,520
Speaker 4: game against UMass and the opener what first to ten wins.

882
00:41:19,080 --> 00:41:22,719
Speaker 4: I bet a lot of unders in the games, but

883
00:41:22,760 --> 00:41:23,840
Speaker 4: I'm staying away from this win. TI.

884
00:41:24,719 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 6: So this is an interesting one. I mentioned how you

885
00:41:27,120 --> 00:41:30,040
Speaker 6: guys have them. You have then projected within a one

886
00:41:30,080 --> 00:41:34,160
Speaker 6: score in eight games. So given that you know volatility.

887
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:35,719
Speaker 6: This is one of those teams. If you're listening to

888
00:41:35,760 --> 00:41:38,200
Speaker 6: this podcast and you had, you know, a feeling and

889
00:41:38,239 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 6: you're trying to hope we sway you one way or another,

890
00:41:41,360 --> 00:41:45,160
Speaker 6: drop around, because five and a half six and a

891
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 6: half big difference for that many close games, that's a

892
00:41:49,320 --> 00:41:50,040
Speaker 6: big difference.

893
00:41:50,719 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's let's close out the teams that are eligible

894
00:41:53,160 --> 00:41:56,400
Speaker 2: to win commerce USA. Finishing with FIU team that went

895
00:41:56,440 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 2: four and eight last year, I was a little surprised

896
00:41:58,480 --> 00:42:00,520
Speaker 2: they got to four wins and their eight law man,

897
00:42:00,520 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 2: they got their doors blown off, just straight up, their

898
00:42:03,080 --> 00:42:05,480
Speaker 2: head kicked in in some of these games. But they

899
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:08,040
Speaker 2: return eighty three point three percent of their line starts.

900
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:11,400
Speaker 2: They got thirteen starters, both specialists. Grayson James, you know

901
00:42:11,480 --> 00:42:13,400
Speaker 2: he's going to be the quarterback. They're plus six and

902
00:42:13,480 --> 00:42:16,560
Speaker 2: net tarp and even spread on offense and defense. Eight

903
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:20,200
Speaker 2: of their nine top tacklers back but from an awful defense,

904
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,920
Speaker 2: and then just in general, I feel like I could

905
00:42:24,320 --> 00:42:27,080
Speaker 2: just feel myself on the cusp of buying in. And

906
00:42:27,120 --> 00:42:29,479
Speaker 2: then Tyreese Chambers in the offseason is off to Meryll

907
00:42:29,520 --> 00:42:32,239
Speaker 2: and their best wide receiver. They got winnable games, they

908
00:42:32,280 --> 00:42:34,719
Speaker 2: got their opener against LA Tech, they play Maine, they

909
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:37,040
Speaker 2: got North Texas at home, They're at sam Houston State,

910
00:42:37,280 --> 00:42:40,239
Speaker 2: they got Jacksonville stay at home. But that's not enough

911
00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 2: for me to talk myself into the over. This is

912
00:42:41,960 --> 00:42:43,880
Speaker 2: just a pure pass. This is a team that I

913
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,279
Speaker 2: expected to be worse, and they certainly were in the

914
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:48,919
Speaker 2: games they lost, but four wins Still, I'm just gonna

915
00:42:48,920 --> 00:42:51,200
Speaker 2: tip my cap and says I'll put a lot of

916
00:42:51,200 --> 00:42:53,600
Speaker 2: respect on their name. In that regard and the fact

917
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:55,920
Speaker 2: that they have so much coming back, maybe they can

918
00:42:56,000 --> 00:42:59,719
Speaker 2: have some cohesion here this season, but definitely not a

919
00:42:59,719 --> 00:43:01,600
Speaker 2: long shot to win this conference. At fifty to one

920
00:43:01,640 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 2: and three and a half, I think is priced accurately.

921
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 2: Am I seeing the Panthers properly call them.

922
00:43:07,440 --> 00:43:10,040
Speaker 4: I have put in a small wager and it went

923
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:12,799
Speaker 4: into the action app on the over. I project them

924
00:43:12,800 --> 00:43:14,839
Speaker 4: at four point two. And the second that I put

925
00:43:14,840 --> 00:43:18,640
Speaker 4: it into the app, I got a Twitter response from

926
00:43:18,640 --> 00:43:20,280
Speaker 4: somebody immediately that said.

927
00:43:20,320 --> 00:43:22,080
Speaker 1: Colin, do they even have pads yet?

928
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:25,400
Speaker 4: If you guys know the story where the department cannot

929
00:43:25,400 --> 00:43:29,880
Speaker 4: fund equipment for them and they didn't have pads, you know,

930
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:32,439
Speaker 4: the schedule is what makes it here. We're really high

931
00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:34,760
Speaker 4: in tarp seventy eight percent on offense, seventy two percent

932
00:43:34,800 --> 00:43:38,640
Speaker 4: on defense. You know, Mike McIntyre David Yos want a

933
00:43:38,680 --> 00:43:41,360
Speaker 4: really fast offense. They were twenty first and seconds per play.

934
00:43:41,600 --> 00:43:43,920
Speaker 4: They returned eighty two percent of their tackles on defense.

935
00:43:44,000 --> 00:43:48,840
Speaker 4: All of these are very positive things. And still it's FIU.

936
00:43:49,040 --> 00:43:51,200
Speaker 4: I mean, yes, I'm a little bit nervous going over

937
00:43:51,239 --> 00:43:53,319
Speaker 4: three and a half. But you know, when you look

938
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:56,040
Speaker 4: at some of these games on here, you know, you

939
00:43:56,080 --> 00:43:58,960
Speaker 4: get a bye week before two away games Middle Tennessee,

940
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:03,439
Speaker 4: New Mexico. You're traveling to Sam Houston. Winnable game FCS main.

941
00:44:03,680 --> 00:44:05,480
Speaker 4: That is not you know, I don't think that's the

942
00:44:05,520 --> 00:44:08,279
Speaker 4: Black Bears playoff team that we've seen recently. That's a

943
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:10,000
Speaker 4: game that they can win. There's a lot of games

944
00:44:10,440 --> 00:44:14,440
Speaker 4: they can win. The schedule sets up nice. It's not

945
00:44:14,480 --> 00:44:17,399
Speaker 4: too tough. Not a big win total, not you know

946
00:44:17,960 --> 00:44:19,440
Speaker 4: the money that I'm going to miss. But I am

947
00:44:19,520 --> 00:44:21,160
Speaker 4: on the over on Florida International.

948
00:44:21,880 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 6: Yeah, I'm staying away. Their defense pretty much returns everyone,

949
00:44:25,160 --> 00:44:28,560
Speaker 6: but their offense. I just you know, they lost both

950
00:44:28,560 --> 00:44:31,759
Speaker 6: their starting tackles to the portal during spring practice. They're

951
00:44:31,760 --> 00:44:35,000
Speaker 6: starting running back towards ACL during spring practice. So those

952
00:44:35,040 --> 00:44:38,920
Speaker 6: are three key losses. Grayson James is back at quarterback,

953
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:42,480
Speaker 6: but is he hadny good you know, eleven touchdowns, eleven picks,

954
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:45,200
Speaker 6: I would say probably not. The nice thing about having

955
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,440
Speaker 6: a team like this in your pocket, Colin is you know,

956
00:44:47,480 --> 00:44:49,640
Speaker 6: they take a ton of chances on offense. They go

957
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:51,600
Speaker 6: for a fourth down at one of the highest rates

958
00:44:51,640 --> 00:44:54,640
Speaker 6: in the country. So to that point, like like caliber said,

959
00:44:54,680 --> 00:44:56,399
Speaker 6: and they showed it last year. Based on the way

960
00:44:56,440 --> 00:44:59,879
Speaker 6: they play, they either win or get their doors blown

961
00:45:00,040 --> 00:45:02,399
Speaker 6: off because they either convert on fourth down and take

962
00:45:02,680 --> 00:45:06,319
Speaker 6: steel possessions and steal points, or they turn it over

963
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:08,919
Speaker 6: on downs in the opponent stantorying you up a quick

964
00:45:08,960 --> 00:45:12,160
Speaker 6: touchdown and gets smoked. They're just to stay away from me.

965
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:12,880
Speaker 1: All right.

966
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,839
Speaker 2: Let's talk about the two FCS editions here. Jacksonville State

967
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 2: nine and two. Last year in their transition out of FCS,

968
00:45:19,200 --> 00:45:21,120
Speaker 2: their win total set at five and a half. Just

969
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,680
Speaker 2: about seventy percent of their O line starts return, which

970
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:26,759
Speaker 2: is critical in rich Rod's spread it out to run

971
00:45:26,800 --> 00:45:29,840
Speaker 2: the ball offense Zion Web a seventh year. It's not

972
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:32,520
Speaker 2: a type of Web's got fifteen hundred career rushing yards

973
00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:36,120
Speaker 2: twenty five tds, and this offense was phenomenal last year

974
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:38,040
Speaker 2: without him because he you know, he was out due

975
00:45:38,080 --> 00:45:40,479
Speaker 2: to injury. They're fifth nationally in rushing at tw hundred

976
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:42,800
Speaker 2: and fifty yards per game. They hit thirty six points

977
00:45:42,800 --> 00:45:45,120
Speaker 2: per game, that was tenth in the FCS, and they

978
00:45:45,120 --> 00:45:47,800
Speaker 2: got annwar Lewis in the backfield and they also added

979
00:45:47,880 --> 00:45:52,120
Speaker 2: ULM transfer Malik Jackson in the portal, so a lot

980
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:55,680
Speaker 2: to like. Offensively, Essentially, you're looking for a veteran triggerman

981
00:45:55,960 --> 00:45:58,960
Speaker 2: options at running back and linemen that know what they're doing.

982
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:01,680
Speaker 2: I think they're going to be tactical and surgical right away.

983
00:46:01,760 --> 00:46:04,239
Speaker 2: They're gonna be able to run the ball in Conference USA.

984
00:46:04,320 --> 00:46:07,680
Speaker 2: Defensively is really where I think their ceiling is going

985
00:46:07,760 --> 00:46:10,960
Speaker 2: to be capped potentially. Chris Hardy j Rock Swain are

986
00:46:11,040 --> 00:46:12,799
Speaker 2: great pass rushing du well. They got a lot of

987
00:46:12,800 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 2: experience in their secondary and they add Austin Ambush from

988
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:19,680
Speaker 2: FCS Maine. Interestingly, we've been named dropping Maine a lot

989
00:46:19,719 --> 00:46:21,880
Speaker 2: here in the preview pods, so they took one of

990
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:25,600
Speaker 2: the best defenders from that squad. The schedule is where

991
00:46:25,640 --> 00:46:28,080
Speaker 2: things get a little bit iffy. I look at it

992
00:46:28,160 --> 00:46:30,520
Speaker 2: like this, the season opens up, you got UTEP East

993
00:46:30,560 --> 00:46:34,359
Speaker 2: Tennessee State at Coastal Eastern Michigan. You got to get

994
00:46:34,360 --> 00:46:36,759
Speaker 2: two wins there. Because the rest of the schedule they're

995
00:46:36,760 --> 00:46:39,880
Speaker 2: at Sam Houston State, at FIU, at New Mexico State.

996
00:46:40,239 --> 00:46:42,759
Speaker 2: I don't really necessarily see any gimmes there. And then

997
00:46:42,760 --> 00:46:45,759
Speaker 2: their home slate of Liberty Western Kentucky law Tech. Yes,

998
00:46:45,800 --> 00:46:48,120
Speaker 2: they're getting their hardest games at home. I wish we could,

999
00:46:48,160 --> 00:46:50,399
Speaker 2: you know, swap out to a little horse trading here

1000
00:46:50,400 --> 00:46:52,360
Speaker 2: and make some of those games against like New Mexico

1001
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,160
Speaker 2: State more of a gimme if you're at home. Do

1002
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:58,040
Speaker 2: they upset Liberty Western or law Tech? I don't know

1003
00:46:58,120 --> 00:47:00,319
Speaker 2: if I see it. So I was very excited about

1004
00:47:00,320 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 2: this team. I'm gonna stump for them. I'm going to

1005
00:47:02,120 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 2: play them in the opener against HUTEP. But I think

1006
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 2: this win total is set just about right at five

1007
00:47:06,600 --> 00:47:07,680
Speaker 2: and a half. What do you think, Ianella?

1008
00:47:08,400 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 6: This another shop around bet MGM has over four and

1009
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:15,040
Speaker 6: a half at plus one point fifteen, So that's a

1010
00:47:15,320 --> 00:47:18,759
Speaker 6: much different number at still plus money. And you know,

1011
00:47:18,800 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 6: I'm kind of leaning on you guys. I'll be the

1012
00:47:20,480 --> 00:47:23,840
Speaker 6: first to met I don't really watch FCS football a

1013
00:47:24,000 --> 00:47:26,320
Speaker 6: time other than that one COVID spring, so I actually

1014
00:47:26,400 --> 00:47:28,680
Speaker 6: know a little bit about Sam Houston, but you know,

1015
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:30,799
Speaker 6: doing all the research and reading into it, Like you said,

1016
00:47:30,880 --> 00:47:33,719
Speaker 6: seventh year quarterback defense was great last year, but they

1017
00:47:33,760 --> 00:47:36,640
Speaker 6: lose all their linebackers. I was reading one I read

1018
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,239
Speaker 6: a said it's that actually made me laugh out loud

1019
00:47:38,239 --> 00:47:41,399
Speaker 6: because it was written as a positive. The defense only

1020
00:47:41,440 --> 00:47:45,759
Speaker 6: intercepted eight passes last season, but that secondary intercepted four

1021
00:47:45,840 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 6: passes in the spring game. Should be one of the

1022
00:47:47,920 --> 00:47:50,560
Speaker 6: team's strains. It's like, dude, but they weren't they playing

1023
00:47:50,600 --> 00:47:52,960
Speaker 6: your offense. That seems like a weird thing to be like, oh,

1024
00:47:53,000 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 6: they picked off It's like, okay, does that mean the

1025
00:47:54,800 --> 00:47:57,160
Speaker 6: defense is good or the quarterbacks a little sketchy? But

1026
00:47:57,200 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 6: that did make me laugh. The offen should be able

1027
00:47:58,880 --> 00:48:00,600
Speaker 6: to run the ball. Well, you mentioned it for me

1028
00:48:00,719 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 6: looking at their schedule. If you give them Tennessee State,

1029
00:48:03,840 --> 00:48:05,839
Speaker 6: if you give them Eastern Michigan, if you give him

1030
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:09,760
Speaker 6: Sam Houston and you give him FYU, they need one upset.

1031
00:48:09,800 --> 00:48:12,799
Speaker 6: And you already mentioned you like him against UTAP so

1032
00:48:13,320 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 6: four and a half, five and a half, a lot

1033
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:16,840
Speaker 6: different numbers. If you give them those four games, you

1034
00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:19,759
Speaker 6: need one upset. So I a shtually don't hate this

1035
00:48:19,800 --> 00:48:21,719
Speaker 6: over and I'm hoping Colin will convince me to take it.

1036
00:48:23,560 --> 00:48:26,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, Colin is. Colin likes this team.

1037
00:48:27,200 --> 00:48:29,040
Speaker 4: I like I said, I think they're gonna upset UTEP

1038
00:48:29,040 --> 00:48:30,600
Speaker 4: in the very first game. It is a number that

1039
00:48:30,640 --> 00:48:34,680
Speaker 4: I projected five point three, and I it's just a

1040
00:48:34,680 --> 00:48:36,799
Speaker 4: decision where am I gonna pick and choose the games

1041
00:48:36,800 --> 00:48:38,200
Speaker 4: that I back them, or am I gonna go with

1042
00:48:38,200 --> 00:48:40,480
Speaker 4: the season win total? Over They're going to be heavily

1043
00:48:40,520 --> 00:48:43,279
Speaker 4: motivated in the ending against New Mexico State. I think

1044
00:48:43,320 --> 00:48:45,680
Speaker 4: they're gonna win their opening game against UTAP. When you

1045
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,839
Speaker 4: have Rod Smith as the offensive coordinatorneath Rich Rod, I

1046
00:48:48,840 --> 00:48:52,080
Speaker 4: immediately have visions of klill Tape going nuts for Arizona.

1047
00:48:52,840 --> 00:48:54,279
Speaker 4: That's the kind of offense we're going to see. And I

1048
00:48:54,280 --> 00:48:56,800
Speaker 4: think that electric player here is going to be Amore Lewis.

1049
00:48:56,960 --> 00:48:58,839
Speaker 4: They're gonna be able to do anything they want with him.

1050
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:01,840
Speaker 4: They swept the they swept the Atlantic Sun.

1051
00:49:02,320 --> 00:49:04,799
Speaker 6: You can get a little Pat White, Steve Slagan with

1052
00:49:04,840 --> 00:49:05,719
Speaker 6: Webb and Lewis here.

1053
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:08,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean it's that kind of combination. Those are

1054
00:49:08,520 --> 00:49:12,319
Speaker 4: the players that are rich Rod Rod Smith offense. They

1055
00:49:12,360 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 4: burn people and I expect to see that, especially in

1056
00:49:15,120 --> 00:49:17,120
Speaker 4: the opener against UTEP. I'm sure the rest of the

1057
00:49:17,120 --> 00:49:19,120
Speaker 4: teams the conference will adjust once they see it. But

1058
00:49:19,480 --> 00:49:22,120
Speaker 4: this is an offense that swept the Atlantic Sun by

1059
00:49:22,120 --> 00:49:25,359
Speaker 4: an average of nineteen points per game last year. They

1060
00:49:25,360 --> 00:49:28,600
Speaker 4: finished twelfth in red zone defense twenty twenty two fcs.

1061
00:49:28,840 --> 00:49:32,160
Speaker 4: They were twenty seventh in total offense and FCS last year.

1062
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:37,560
Speaker 4: This is like one of those ready to eat pizzas, right,

1063
00:49:37,640 --> 00:49:39,160
Speaker 4: This is like you just walk into Little Caesars and

1064
00:49:39,160 --> 00:49:41,799
Speaker 4: you get a pizza because it's already ready. Like Jacksonville

1065
00:49:41,840 --> 00:49:44,400
Speaker 4: State is ready to start scoring points in this conference

1066
00:49:44,440 --> 00:49:45,120
Speaker 4: from the get go.

1067
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:47,920
Speaker 1: I think I would rather.

1068
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 4: Play a single game, fresh, healthy, not a lot of tape,

1069
00:49:51,680 --> 00:49:54,400
Speaker 4: not a lot of film against a UTEP defensive line

1070
00:49:54,520 --> 00:49:57,440
Speaker 4: and safeties that are a little bit questionable in the

1071
00:49:57,480 --> 00:49:59,799
Speaker 4: opener than I would taking an over on the win

1072
00:49:59,840 --> 00:50:02,200
Speaker 4: to But price point is very important. That over four

1073
00:50:02,200 --> 00:50:05,080
Speaker 4: and a half plus one fifteen that needs to be

1074
00:50:05,200 --> 00:50:07,560
Speaker 4: hit if you have that available, so.

1075
00:50:07,480 --> 00:50:11,000
Speaker 6: You're saying don't buy the wind total because while it's

1076
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:14,759
Speaker 6: ready to eat pizza, So yeah, that early excitement because

1077
00:50:14,760 --> 00:50:17,919
Speaker 6: it's ready, it's hot, ready to go, But then after

1078
00:50:17,960 --> 00:50:20,200
Speaker 6: a little while you're like, it's really not that good.

1079
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:23,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, well, I mean, yeah, the schedule you get in

1080
00:50:23,440 --> 00:50:24,960
Speaker 4: the middle of the schedule might not be a good

1081
00:50:24,960 --> 00:50:27,000
Speaker 4: of a pizza like pieces usually good at breakfast the

1082
00:50:27,040 --> 00:50:28,759
Speaker 4: next day. I'm not sure how this one's going to

1083
00:50:28,800 --> 00:50:30,640
Speaker 4: be once we get into it, but the opener against

1084
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:33,000
Speaker 4: UTEP is going to be hot and hopefully I don't

1085
00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:34,560
Speaker 4: eat it too fast and the pizza is not too

1086
00:50:34,600 --> 00:50:35,520
Speaker 4: hot and burns my mouth.

1087
00:50:35,560 --> 00:50:37,680
Speaker 1: But I definitely love this offense.

1088
00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:41,520
Speaker 2: Disclaimer. Little Caesars is not officially a sponsor of the podcast,

1089
00:50:41,520 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 2: but they could be. Five ninety nine Ready Pizza is

1090
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:46,839
Speaker 2: the analogy for Zion Web and the Crazy Crazy Bread

1091
00:50:46,960 --> 00:50:49,160
Speaker 2: is anwar Lewis, it's all locked in, ready to go.

1092
00:50:49,280 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 2: We can audio downs and brot him.

1093
00:50:50,880 --> 00:50:53,440
Speaker 6: Malik Jackson over from yes well too, he followed me.

1094
00:50:53,600 --> 00:50:56,399
Speaker 2: Well, he's another good piece, and as we know, rich

1095
00:50:56,480 --> 00:50:58,560
Speaker 2: Rod likes to have multiple backs that get involved in

1096
00:50:58,560 --> 00:51:00,439
Speaker 2: the run game. All right, let's look at the other

1097
00:51:00,600 --> 00:51:05,399
Speaker 2: FCS team This, to me is one of the most

1098
00:51:05,480 --> 00:51:08,800
Speaker 2: interesting previews that we're going to do the entire preview season.

1099
00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:12,280
Speaker 2: Sam Houston State went five and four last year. However,

1100
00:51:12,800 --> 00:51:15,799
Speaker 2: they held back multiple starters and red shirted them after

1101
00:51:15,840 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 2: four games because they wanted to save them for this transition.

1102
00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:22,319
Speaker 2: So when you look at the fact that they only

1103
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:25,360
Speaker 2: have thirteen returning starters, that's not one hundred percent true.

1104
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:28,120
Speaker 2: Their net TARP was plus four plus three on defense.

1105
00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:30,560
Speaker 2: They return about sixty five percent of their line starts,

1106
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:33,960
Speaker 2: and from a coaching perspective, I think they're really interesting

1107
00:51:33,960 --> 00:51:37,680
Speaker 2: because for those uninitiated, and this may also include Ianello

1108
00:51:38,040 --> 00:51:42,120
Speaker 2: to the FCS ranks, case Keeler is a coaching legend.

1109
00:51:42,280 --> 00:51:44,440
Speaker 2: He's got two hundred and fifty nine career wins. He

1110
00:51:44,440 --> 00:51:46,520
Speaker 2: did it Rowan, he did it at Delaware. At sam

1111
00:51:46,520 --> 00:51:50,120
Speaker 2: Houston State, he's twenty five and seven in the FCS

1112
00:51:50,160 --> 00:51:53,200
Speaker 2: playoffs alone. He took the Blue Hens to two national

1113
00:51:53,320 --> 00:51:56,040
Speaker 2: championship games, the last one he only lost by one

1114
00:51:56,120 --> 00:51:59,000
Speaker 2: single point. He took sam Houston State to three semis

1115
00:51:59,000 --> 00:52:01,560
Speaker 2: before winning it all on this spring in twenty twenty one.

1116
00:52:01,680 --> 00:52:04,399
Speaker 2: He's entering year ten at sam Houston State and He's

1117
00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:07,920
Speaker 2: one double digit six times in those nine years. So

1118
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:11,200
Speaker 2: special circumstances with the coaching staff with the red shirting

1119
00:52:11,640 --> 00:52:14,560
Speaker 2: and what they bring back from an offensive standpoint in

1120
00:52:14,600 --> 00:52:18,000
Speaker 2: those red shirts are three quality pass catchers, two starting

1121
00:52:18,000 --> 00:52:20,640
Speaker 2: linebackers who would have been gone otherwise. And now they

1122
00:52:20,719 --> 00:52:24,400
Speaker 2: bring in Brad Cornelson at OC. He's formerly a Memphis

1123
00:52:24,600 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 2: and Virginia Tech is offensive coordinator. He's a speed demon,

1124
00:52:27,360 --> 00:52:30,000
Speaker 2: averaged seventy three plays per game at those two stops.

1125
00:52:30,480 --> 00:52:33,040
Speaker 2: And I mean, I'm going to be refreshing my feed,

1126
00:52:33,120 --> 00:52:34,800
Speaker 2: I'm going to be googling. I'm going to be searching

1127
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:38,360
Speaker 2: for this QB battle. Because Keegan Shoemaker was a game manager.

1128
00:52:38,440 --> 00:52:40,520
Speaker 2: I think he was just basically keeping the seat warm

1129
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:43,040
Speaker 2: for a potential quarterback to come in. Like grank Ganell,

1130
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:46,920
Speaker 2: big time talent, he's never taken hold. He started at Arizona,

1131
00:52:47,640 --> 00:52:50,480
Speaker 2: went to Memphis, went to North Texas. He's a huge kid.

1132
00:52:50,480 --> 00:52:52,520
Speaker 2: He's six to six, He's got a huge arm. If

1133
00:52:52,520 --> 00:52:54,680
Speaker 2: he can put it together. From talent perspective, he's a

1134
00:52:54,719 --> 00:52:57,879
Speaker 2: former four star kid. This could be interesting, but they

1135
00:52:57,960 --> 00:53:00,400
Speaker 2: need somebody like that because they're scheduled going to get

1136
00:53:00,400 --> 00:53:02,879
Speaker 2: slapped around early in the season, they're at BYU, They're

1137
00:53:02,920 --> 00:53:06,680
Speaker 2: home against air Force at Energy, they go to Houston,

1138
00:53:06,920 --> 00:53:09,320
Speaker 2: and then they're at Liberty in week five. That is

1139
00:53:09,360 --> 00:53:13,160
Speaker 2: a rough opening transition to FBS football, But I think

1140
00:53:13,200 --> 00:53:15,239
Speaker 2: if they can survive it, they can at least get

1141
00:53:15,280 --> 00:53:17,719
Speaker 2: to four wins and push on this win total. I'm

1142
00:53:17,719 --> 00:53:19,600
Speaker 2: going to play them over because I think they're this

1143
00:53:19,760 --> 00:53:22,560
Speaker 2: mystery bag in terms of the metrics. You don't really

1144
00:53:22,600 --> 00:53:24,560
Speaker 2: know what they're going to be this year with these

1145
00:53:24,600 --> 00:53:27,680
Speaker 2: new pieces. Am I seeing the field clearly here, Colin?

1146
00:53:27,800 --> 00:53:29,440
Speaker 2: Or do you think this will smoke and mirrors from

1147
00:53:29,480 --> 00:53:30,120
Speaker 2: the Bearcats?

1148
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:33,239
Speaker 4: The projection says over. You know, I have their win

1149
00:53:33,320 --> 00:53:34,440
Speaker 4: total at four point seven.

1150
00:53:34,520 --> 00:53:35,279
Speaker 1: I just have a.

1151
00:53:35,239 --> 00:53:38,160
Speaker 4: Lot of the reason why I haven't been actionable on

1152
00:53:38,200 --> 00:53:40,520
Speaker 4: it is I have a lot of heartburn with this schedule.

1153
00:53:41,080 --> 00:53:43,960
Speaker 4: Your road conference is Liberty, Western, Kentucky, LA Tech. You're

1154
00:53:43,960 --> 00:53:46,120
Speaker 4: not getting any wins there. Oh yeah, you have another

1155
00:53:46,200 --> 00:53:49,399
Speaker 4: road game it's against New Mexico State that's on short rest,

1156
00:53:50,640 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 4: so you're not winning any of your road games in

1157
00:53:52,800 --> 00:53:56,080
Speaker 4: the conference. I am a little disturbed that you have

1158
00:53:56,120 --> 00:53:58,880
Speaker 4: two triples on this between Air Force and Kennesaw State.

1159
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:02,359
Speaker 4: That's gonna be a little bit tough to defend. I'm

1160
00:54:02,400 --> 00:54:05,439
Speaker 4: just having issues all over this schedule, trying to find

1161
00:54:05,440 --> 00:54:08,200
Speaker 4: a win BYU is so tired of the negative narrative.

1162
00:54:08,239 --> 00:54:11,719
Speaker 4: They might, you know, blow Sam Houston out. I mean,

1163
00:54:11,760 --> 00:54:14,640
Speaker 4: they have heard enough about how bad they were on

1164
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:17,600
Speaker 4: defense last year. So, you know, there's a lot of

1165
00:54:17,640 --> 00:54:20,120
Speaker 4: things on the schedule that I really don't like. I

1166
00:54:20,160 --> 00:54:22,560
Speaker 4: do like the team. This team right here has a

1167
00:54:22,600 --> 00:54:24,279
Speaker 4: couple of names on it that everybody needs to know.

1168
00:54:24,480 --> 00:54:26,319
Speaker 4: You know, inside their quarterback room, they have a guy

1169
00:54:26,360 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 4: named Trapper. Their defensive interior, they have a guy called Meatball.

1170
00:54:30,600 --> 00:54:32,480
Speaker 4: That's his name, Meatball. Now his real name is a

1171
00:54:32,560 --> 00:54:35,160
Speaker 4: King Smith, but he just wants to go by Meatball.

1172
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:38,160
Speaker 4: So while I love the names on this team and

1173
00:54:38,200 --> 00:54:42,759
Speaker 4: I love new Blood in the FBS, the schedule is disgusting.

1174
00:54:42,800 --> 00:54:45,040
Speaker 4: They'd return a lot both sides of the ball. But

1175
00:54:45,120 --> 00:54:47,839
Speaker 4: this is a big step up in class and it's

1176
00:54:47,880 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 4: not like Jacksonville State where you have this auto offense.

1177
00:54:50,719 --> 00:54:53,680
Speaker 4: There are still questions about who's playing quarterback, is going

1178
00:54:53,719 --> 00:54:56,759
Speaker 4: to be Ganel. You know, there's just a lot of

1179
00:54:56,840 --> 00:55:00,360
Speaker 4: question marks here. A really tough schedule, especially in non

1180
00:55:00,600 --> 00:55:02,240
Speaker 4: and so I'm staying away from the seam.

1181
00:55:02,440 --> 00:55:02,640
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1182
00:55:02,640 --> 00:55:04,360
Speaker 6: I basically just have a giant question mark in my

1183
00:55:04,400 --> 00:55:07,240
Speaker 6: notes for them. It's just hard impossible to know over're getting.

1184
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:10,400
Speaker 6: You know, you mentioned who's the quarterback? With all the

1185
00:55:10,440 --> 00:55:13,319
Speaker 6: red shirts, you know, they basically had no receivers last year,

1186
00:55:13,400 --> 00:55:16,960
Speaker 6: so who knows what you're gonna get there? Red shirt

1187
00:55:17,000 --> 00:55:19,960
Speaker 6: all their key players on defense. So I mean the positive,

1188
00:55:19,960 --> 00:55:21,480
Speaker 6: it gives them a ton of depth because a lot

1189
00:55:21,520 --> 00:55:24,279
Speaker 6: of their backups basically started most of the year last year.

1190
00:55:24,320 --> 00:55:27,080
Speaker 6: So I do like that aspect of it. Like I said,

1191
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:29,120
Speaker 6: I watched them a ton that spring twenty twenty one

1192
00:55:29,160 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 6: year when they won, you know, and Ramon Jefferson just

1193
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:35,400
Speaker 6: ran over everybody. But he's not there anymore, and I

1194
00:55:35,440 --> 00:55:38,120
Speaker 6: think the defense should be pretty good. It's just really

1195
00:55:38,160 --> 00:55:40,040
Speaker 6: impossible to know. The Other thing I can't like get

1196
00:55:40,080 --> 00:55:43,240
Speaker 6: out of my head for some reason is when Daniel

1197
00:55:43,239 --> 00:55:45,600
Speaker 6: Holgerson tried to red shirt everyone his first year at

1198
00:55:45,640 --> 00:55:47,799
Speaker 6: Houston to bounce back, and then the next year they

1199
00:55:47,840 --> 00:55:51,479
Speaker 6: were horrible, so it like didn't work. You're like, yeah,

1200
00:55:51,560 --> 00:55:53,440
Speaker 6: they have all their good players back, but like their

1201
00:55:53,440 --> 00:55:55,880
Speaker 6: good players haven't played football in like a year and

1202
00:55:55,920 --> 00:55:59,160
Speaker 6: a half. So to Collin's point, with that beginning of

1203
00:55:59,200 --> 00:56:02,120
Speaker 6: the season, you know, so at BYU and they have

1204
00:56:02,200 --> 00:56:05,719
Speaker 6: their leading receiver hasn't played more than three games in

1205
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:09,040
Speaker 6: almost two years. It's kind of scary. I don't know

1206
00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:10,719
Speaker 6: how about them at all this year. They're just kind

1207
00:56:10,719 --> 00:56:12,560
Speaker 6: of let's wait and see. Maybe you start jumping in

1208
00:56:12,640 --> 00:56:14,319
Speaker 6: towards the end of the year and see if these

1209
00:56:14,360 --> 00:56:17,399
Speaker 6: red shirt guys can can get the rust off.

1210
00:56:18,040 --> 00:56:20,440
Speaker 2: All right, we'll go around the horn here, conference title

1211
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:23,440
Speaker 2: pick and best bet. I like Liberty, make sure to

1212
00:56:23,480 --> 00:56:25,200
Speaker 2: shop around for the best number. And then when it

1213
00:56:25,200 --> 00:56:27,400
Speaker 2: comes to Middle Tennessee win total sitting at six and

1214
00:56:27,440 --> 00:56:29,439
Speaker 2: a half, I need to go under. You know, their

1215
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:33,040
Speaker 2: net tarp on offense is our total is negative seven.

1216
00:56:33,040 --> 00:56:35,879
Speaker 2: That's all on offense, all those losses. I think they

1217
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:38,560
Speaker 2: have some issues outside of their offensive line. I think

1218
00:56:38,600 --> 00:56:41,400
Speaker 2: defensively they got shredded at times, and I think Western

1219
00:56:41,480 --> 00:56:43,680
Speaker 2: Kentucky and La Tech are going to be able to

1220
00:56:43,680 --> 00:56:45,920
Speaker 2: burn them through the air. And then Colin hammered on

1221
00:56:45,960 --> 00:56:48,719
Speaker 2: it at Alabama at Miszoo. They could be the walking

1222
00:56:48,760 --> 00:56:50,960
Speaker 2: wounded after the first two weeks. So I'll go under there.

1223
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:53,160
Speaker 2: As my best bet here in conference. He would say, Colin,

1224
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:55,400
Speaker 2: what are your two pack of picks?

1225
00:56:55,719 --> 00:56:57,960
Speaker 4: I echo everything you say. I'm taking Liberty to win

1226
00:56:58,040 --> 00:57:00,760
Speaker 4: the conference. I'm going to roll with the Middle Tennessee

1227
00:57:00,840 --> 00:57:03,120
Speaker 4: under but I'm gonna throw in I don't think I've

1228
00:57:03,160 --> 00:57:04,920
Speaker 4: ever said this in the history of the Action Network

1229
00:57:04,960 --> 00:57:08,879
Speaker 4: and over on Florida International. And it's not for any

1230
00:57:08,920 --> 00:57:11,399
Speaker 4: sizeable kind of money. Just to make everybody clear there

1231
00:57:11,440 --> 00:57:13,640
Speaker 4: that this is a two unit play in the app,

1232
00:57:13,680 --> 00:57:16,480
Speaker 4: which is half of about all the other thing else

1233
00:57:16,520 --> 00:57:17,040
Speaker 4: that I play.

1234
00:57:17,120 --> 00:57:19,680
Speaker 1: So just Florida and Nationally give me four wins, we'll

1235
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:20,000
Speaker 1: be there.

1236
00:57:20,360 --> 00:57:22,880
Speaker 2: Maybe just call the athletic department an anonymous five hundred

1237
00:57:22,880 --> 00:57:25,120
Speaker 2: dollars gift for equipment, just, you know, give the guys

1238
00:57:25,160 --> 00:57:26,960
Speaker 2: a little extra win in their sales. I know, what

1239
00:57:27,040 --> 00:57:27,600
Speaker 2: do you think here?

1240
00:57:27,960 --> 00:57:30,680
Speaker 6: I like Western Kentucky. They're the conferences favorite, so I'll

1241
00:57:30,680 --> 00:57:32,320
Speaker 6: probably just play there over eight and a half. I

1242
00:57:32,320 --> 00:57:34,360
Speaker 6: think they dog walk everyone in the conference and then

1243
00:57:34,400 --> 00:57:36,480
Speaker 6: it just comes down in Liberty game, which I think

1244
00:57:36,480 --> 00:57:40,160
Speaker 6: they win. So give me the Toppers, the pride of

1245
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:40,880
Speaker 6: Bailey Zappy.

1246
00:57:42,360 --> 00:57:42,840
Speaker 1: There you go.

1247
00:57:42,920 --> 00:57:46,720
Speaker 2: All right, let's ring the bell. It's time for independent football,

1248
00:57:47,200 --> 00:57:51,600
Speaker 2: not an independence conference. Independence is what they have individually,

1249
00:57:51,720 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 2: they are on their own. We'll start at the bottom

1250
00:58:04,280 --> 00:58:06,880
Speaker 2: of the barrel, the UMass mid men one and eleven.

1251
00:58:06,960 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 2: Last year. Their win total is sitting at a gaudy

1252
00:58:09,920 --> 00:58:12,360
Speaker 2: two and a half. They returned sixty three percent of

1253
00:58:12,400 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 2: their offensive line starts thirteen starters, both specialist Tyson Foeman

1254
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:21,120
Speaker 2: shan I hope, I got that right. Foe okay, anyway,

1255
00:58:21,440 --> 00:58:23,440
Speaker 2: he was a five star four star depending on the

1256
00:58:23,480 --> 00:58:26,760
Speaker 2: recruiting service way back in the day at Clemson. Overall,

1257
00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:29,440
Speaker 2: their net TARP is minus three. Their offense is minus

1258
00:58:29,520 --> 00:58:33,480
Speaker 2: five thirteen returning starters as I mentioned, and they also

1259
00:58:33,520 --> 00:58:35,760
Speaker 2: bring in some interesting pieces in the transfer portal, Mark

1260
00:58:35,800 --> 00:58:38,880
Speaker 2: Pope from Miami, Anthony Simpson from Arizona, and Jalen John

1261
00:58:38,920 --> 00:58:41,680
Speaker 2: from Arizona as well, so they have a little bit

1262
00:58:41,720 --> 00:58:43,840
Speaker 2: more of hope on that side of the ball. But

1263
00:58:43,880 --> 00:58:47,600
Speaker 2: they struggled pretty mightily against a decent defense, and I

1264
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 2: don't think gets enough credit. They could not move the

1265
00:58:50,080 --> 00:58:51,840
Speaker 2: ball in the spring, and it makes sense because this

1266
00:58:51,880 --> 00:58:54,440
Speaker 2: defense finished ninth against the pass last year and they

1267
00:58:54,480 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 2: return eight starters, three in their secondary alone. This is

1268
00:58:57,520 --> 00:58:59,640
Speaker 2: a don Brown team that's going to solve its problems

1269
00:58:59,640 --> 00:59:02,440
Speaker 2: with a as he likes to say, could keep them

1270
00:59:02,440 --> 00:59:04,160
Speaker 2: in plenty of games this year. I'm interested in them

1271
00:59:04,240 --> 00:59:07,560
Speaker 2: from it against the spread perspective, because the average fancies U.

1272
00:59:07,600 --> 00:59:10,280
Speaker 2: Mass and that's an auto fade situation. They went one

1273
00:59:10,320 --> 00:59:12,120
Speaker 2: and eleven last year, but they went five and seven

1274
00:59:12,160 --> 00:59:14,760
Speaker 2: against the spread. So kick it to you first, Ianlo,

1275
00:59:14,840 --> 00:59:17,919
Speaker 2: as our residents man of New England. Is there any

1276
00:59:17,960 --> 00:59:20,840
Speaker 2: reason to think that they win three or four games

1277
00:59:20,840 --> 00:59:22,720
Speaker 2: this year or is it going to be a bet

1278
00:59:22,720 --> 00:59:25,440
Speaker 2: that you're sweating the whole way because we're talking about U.

1279
00:59:25,440 --> 00:59:25,920
Speaker 1: Mass.

1280
00:59:26,360 --> 00:59:29,360
Speaker 6: No, there, no, just no. I didn't.

1281
00:59:29,400 --> 00:59:30,200
Speaker 1: I didn't. I'll be honest.

1282
00:59:30,240 --> 00:59:32,320
Speaker 6: I did not even dig into you Mass. I'm not

1283
00:59:32,360 --> 00:59:35,120
Speaker 6: betting them, but I'm certainly not betting them to go

1284
00:59:35,200 --> 00:59:39,960
Speaker 6: over their window. No's, I think it's impossible to recruit

1285
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:45,320
Speaker 6: these nowadays to Massachusetts. I'm sorry, they're just no, they're

1286
00:59:45,320 --> 00:59:46,040
Speaker 6: gonna stink.

1287
00:59:46,360 --> 00:59:49,720
Speaker 4: That Merrimack is on the schedule. They're projected as a

1288
00:59:49,760 --> 00:59:52,680
Speaker 4: favorite over Merrimack. Really haven't done a deep dive on

1289
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:55,080
Speaker 4: what Merrimack is bringing back, but this team is not

1290
00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:57,040
Speaker 4: won a game on the road since twenty eighteen. So

1291
00:59:57,040 --> 00:59:59,400
Speaker 4: if I just don't even look at any of those games,

1292
00:59:59,440 --> 01:00:01,000
Speaker 4: and I look at the home games, where am I

1293
01:00:01,040 --> 01:00:01,800
Speaker 4: going to get another win?

1294
01:00:01,840 --> 01:00:04,360
Speaker 1: You're not beating Yukon. You're not beating Fleeto.

1295
01:00:04,600 --> 01:00:05,080
Speaker 6: No you're not.

1296
01:00:05,800 --> 01:00:07,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, you're not beating Arkansas State.

1297
01:00:08,000 --> 01:00:10,840
Speaker 4: You know from the mac work that I've done, I

1298
01:00:10,920 --> 01:00:12,520
Speaker 4: don't hate Miami Ohio.

1299
01:00:13,040 --> 01:00:15,760
Speaker 1: So I'm not sure how this team gets over their

1300
01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:16,640
Speaker 1: win total at all.

1301
01:00:16,680 --> 01:00:19,160
Speaker 4: And I'm not promoting to go out and buy their

1302
01:00:19,240 --> 01:00:23,360
Speaker 4: under either, although you know that's something. I mean, I

1303
01:00:23,360 --> 01:00:25,960
Speaker 4: don't know, do you want to encourage diseases or cancer?

1304
01:00:26,040 --> 01:00:27,480
Speaker 4: I mean, just go get a U MASS ticket and

1305
01:00:27,480 --> 01:00:28,640
Speaker 4: hold onto it for six months.

1306
01:00:28,680 --> 01:00:31,320
Speaker 1: I mean, that's rough. I don't see them going over there.

1307
01:00:31,360 --> 01:00:34,520
Speaker 6: Don't give yourself any reason to have to check UMass

1308
01:00:34,520 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 6: scores on a Sunday morning, win, lose. I just don't

1309
01:00:37,640 --> 01:00:40,160
Speaker 6: even give yourself a reason to look up these scores.

1310
01:00:40,320 --> 01:00:41,280
Speaker 1: It's true, all.

1311
01:00:41,200 --> 01:00:43,320
Speaker 2: Right, Let's give them a program that they should be

1312
01:00:43,360 --> 01:00:46,400
Speaker 2: excited to see the scores on. Also in New England,

1313
01:00:46,680 --> 01:00:49,640
Speaker 2: talking about the Yukon Huskies. What's a bowl game? Last year?

1314
01:00:49,640 --> 01:00:50,160
Speaker 1: Folks?

1315
01:00:50,520 --> 01:00:53,480
Speaker 2: Their win totals just sitting at in my opinion, a

1316
01:00:53,520 --> 01:00:55,920
Speaker 2: pretty reasonable four and a half. They were turned fourth

1317
01:00:55,960 --> 01:00:59,400
Speaker 2: fifths of their offensive line starts plus eight point five

1318
01:00:59,560 --> 01:01:01,880
Speaker 2: in the net tarp plus five on offense alone, that

1319
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:05,640
Speaker 2: means fourteen starters. Both specialists are back Zion Turner or

1320
01:01:05,680 --> 01:01:08,920
Speaker 2: Takwan Roberson. We'll see who wins that job. But what

1321
01:01:09,000 --> 01:01:10,720
Speaker 2: we know from a Jim More team is he wants

1322
01:01:10,720 --> 01:01:13,200
Speaker 2: to pound the ball. He's got Victor Rose to do it.

1323
01:01:13,320 --> 01:01:16,440
Speaker 2: Guy's a dog. I absolutely love what he brings behind

1324
01:01:16,480 --> 01:01:19,720
Speaker 2: an experience offensive line. Jackson Mitchell is a future pro

1325
01:01:19,800 --> 01:01:22,600
Speaker 2: tackling machine on defense at one hundred and forty tackles

1326
01:01:22,840 --> 01:01:25,840
Speaker 2: last year, Jesus, they can improve a lot against the run.

1327
01:01:25,960 --> 01:01:28,200
Speaker 2: They still have room to do so. And when you

1328
01:01:28,240 --> 01:01:30,560
Speaker 2: look at their schedule, they got a bunch of p

1329
01:01:30,640 --> 01:01:33,440
Speaker 2: five teams on here. NC State, Duke at home at

1330
01:01:33,440 --> 01:01:36,680
Speaker 2: BC at Tennessee. Let's call those all losses, but the

1331
01:01:36,720 --> 01:01:39,680
Speaker 2: winnables it's a long list. At Georgia State, I got

1332
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:42,200
Speaker 2: respect for the Sun Belt, but I'm not automatically penciling

1333
01:01:42,200 --> 01:01:45,040
Speaker 2: that in for a win for the Panthers. Home against FIU,

1334
01:01:45,320 --> 01:01:49,400
Speaker 2: Home against Utah State at Rice, home against USF at

1335
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:51,640
Speaker 2: James Madison. I think that's the most difficult game from

1336
01:01:51,680 --> 01:01:54,880
Speaker 2: the G five ranks. They get FCS Sacred Heart and

1337
01:01:54,920 --> 01:01:57,760
Speaker 2: they get UMass. Seems to me like that's at least

1338
01:01:57,840 --> 01:01:59,920
Speaker 2: five wins. I'm a little bit supper.

1339
01:02:00,960 --> 01:02:03,200
Speaker 6: Let's not forget they beat Boston College last year.

1340
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:06,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly, So you know what, I'm just gonna go

1341
01:02:06,080 --> 01:02:07,120
Speaker 2: ahead and lock this in right now.

1342
01:02:07,240 --> 01:02:08,240
Speaker 1: We're gonna go over on.

1343
01:02:08,200 --> 01:02:11,000
Speaker 2: The Huskies and hopefully the quarterback plays a little bit

1344
01:02:11,040 --> 01:02:13,040
Speaker 2: better and the run defense is a little bit better

1345
01:02:13,200 --> 01:02:15,880
Speaker 2: with Jackson middle Jackson Mitchell in the middle making it

1346
01:02:15,880 --> 01:02:18,640
Speaker 2: all happen. I'll start with il here because he's jumping

1347
01:02:18,680 --> 01:02:20,680
Speaker 2: out of the skin. He's probably hopping on all that.

1348
01:02:20,760 --> 01:02:23,200
Speaker 2: Duncan hit me with a kid. What do you like

1349
01:02:23,200 --> 01:02:23,720
Speaker 2: about this time?

1350
01:02:23,760 --> 01:02:25,320
Speaker 6: I said, you can't recruit to U Mass. You one

1351
01:02:25,400 --> 01:02:28,760
Speaker 6: where you can recruit Connecticut Storm. You bring him to

1352
01:02:28,840 --> 01:02:33,240
Speaker 6: Frank Pepees and it is wrapped, imagine, and I deal

1353
01:02:33,320 --> 01:02:36,040
Speaker 6: with just like free pizza. I mean, they're going to

1354
01:02:36,080 --> 01:02:38,800
Speaker 6: sign the number one player in the country. Also, breeze

1355
01:02:38,840 --> 01:02:41,919
Speaker 6: the fact that you're betting Penn State and Yukon. You're

1356
01:02:41,960 --> 01:02:43,120
Speaker 6: I think you're starting to butter me up.

1357
01:02:43,120 --> 01:02:43,600
Speaker 1: A little bit.

1358
01:02:44,160 --> 01:02:47,040
Speaker 6: You mentioned that this team they have, first of all

1359
01:02:47,040 --> 01:02:50,640
Speaker 6: three quarterbacks that realisticly could play, and I wouldn't really

1360
01:02:50,680 --> 01:02:54,480
Speaker 6: be that scared. They they bring back Turner. Taikwon Robertson

1361
01:02:54,520 --> 01:02:56,800
Speaker 6: won the starting job at a camp Penn State transfer.

1362
01:02:56,960 --> 01:02:58,480
Speaker 6: What's not we don't have to talk about when he

1363
01:02:58,480 --> 01:02:59,960
Speaker 6: played at Penn State. As far as I'm going, Turning

1364
01:03:00,080 --> 01:03:02,800
Speaker 6: never took the field and he towards acl Week one,

1365
01:03:02,880 --> 01:03:06,000
Speaker 6: which was just brutal. He is really fast, he's ripped,

1366
01:03:06,000 --> 01:03:08,200
Speaker 6: he's got a great arm. I think he wins the

1367
01:03:08,280 --> 01:03:10,880
Speaker 6: job back if he's healthy. But they also brought bought

1368
01:03:10,880 --> 01:03:13,960
Speaker 6: in Joseph Fagano from Maine, who was pretty good down there,

1369
01:03:14,000 --> 01:03:15,920
Speaker 6: So that's they kind of have a three way battle going.

1370
01:03:15,960 --> 01:03:18,480
Speaker 6: I do think rovers who wins the job pending health.

1371
01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:22,000
Speaker 6: You mentioned Victor Rosa. They also bring back Devonte Houston,

1372
01:03:22,040 --> 01:03:23,600
Speaker 6: who was great last year, so they have kind of

1373
01:03:23,640 --> 01:03:27,120
Speaker 6: a two headed monster they bring back. They lose their

1374
01:03:27,120 --> 01:03:30,640
Speaker 6: top two receivers, but they bring back Claire Kios. They

1375
01:03:30,640 --> 01:03:33,160
Speaker 6: have a solid tight end. You mentioned Jackson Mitchell's stuff.

1376
01:03:33,160 --> 01:03:35,800
Speaker 6: Their defense is nasty. Their defense was great last year,

1377
01:03:36,440 --> 01:03:40,880
Speaker 6: especially against the run. Pretty much bring back everyone. They

1378
01:03:40,880 --> 01:03:43,120
Speaker 6: brought a ton of like pretty you know, decent Power

1379
01:03:43,160 --> 01:03:46,480
Speaker 6: five transfers. They got into linebacker from Kansas, cornerback from

1380
01:03:46,520 --> 01:03:51,440
Speaker 6: Washington State, uh D Linman from Illinois, another corner from Washington.

1381
01:03:51,760 --> 01:03:54,520
Speaker 6: So I like what they've done in the portal. And

1382
01:03:54,560 --> 01:03:56,920
Speaker 6: he mentioned the schedule, like they have a lot of

1383
01:03:56,920 --> 01:03:58,800
Speaker 6: winnable games on here. They play a lot of the

1384
01:03:59,040 --> 01:04:01,600
Speaker 6: all the conferences were talking about the teams. We're down

1385
01:04:01,680 --> 01:04:04,520
Speaker 6: on the Utah States that yeah, obviously we talked about

1386
01:04:04,600 --> 01:04:07,040
Speaker 6: U Mass stinks, but they play all these teams that

1387
01:04:07,200 --> 01:04:10,720
Speaker 6: fi us take her heart, Like there's four wins right

1388
01:04:10,760 --> 01:04:13,200
Speaker 6: there right throwing, I mean right, who knows what j D.

1389
01:04:13,320 --> 01:04:15,640
Speaker 6: Daniels is going to be. They we saw him. They

1390
01:04:15,640 --> 01:04:18,000
Speaker 6: beat Boston College last year, like in Fresno State. They

1391
01:04:18,040 --> 01:04:21,800
Speaker 6: can beat teams that they shouldn't. I'm all in on

1392
01:04:21,800 --> 01:04:25,920
Speaker 6: the Huskies. This team is bowling again. Jim Moore Junior.

1393
01:04:26,320 --> 01:04:28,760
Speaker 6: While he may have finally admitted he doesn't actually know

1394
01:04:28,800 --> 01:04:31,440
Speaker 6: who killed Tupac, what he does know is how to

1395
01:04:31,440 --> 01:04:34,600
Speaker 6: get teams to a bowl. Let's go Huskies.

1396
01:04:35,480 --> 01:04:37,120
Speaker 2: Are you bowling with the Huskies here?

1397
01:04:37,160 --> 01:04:37,400
Speaker 6: Colin?

1398
01:04:37,800 --> 01:04:38,560
Speaker 1: I'm totally with it.

1399
01:04:38,560 --> 01:04:40,680
Speaker 4: I'm totally on the over the win total here because

1400
01:04:40,680 --> 01:04:42,560
Speaker 4: and one of the big things is really is the

1401
01:04:42,720 --> 01:04:46,040
Speaker 4: games that you can win. You are a solid favorite

1402
01:04:46,040 --> 01:04:48,520
Speaker 4: in those games. You are a solid favorite over UMass

1403
01:04:48,520 --> 01:04:52,200
Speaker 4: and Sacred Heart, You are a solid favorite over Florida International.

1404
01:04:52,840 --> 01:04:55,240
Speaker 4: And yeah, I have a big disagreement with other power

1405
01:04:55,320 --> 01:04:57,800
Speaker 4: rating systems on Utah State, but I make Yukon a

1406
01:04:57,880 --> 01:04:59,120
Speaker 4: ten point favorite in that game.

1407
01:04:59,280 --> 01:04:59,880
Speaker 1: Whoa baby?

1408
01:05:00,440 --> 01:05:02,680
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, you guys know we have no love

1409
01:05:02,720 --> 01:05:05,520
Speaker 4: for Utah State. So you know, there are games on

1410
01:05:05,560 --> 01:05:07,520
Speaker 4: this schedule, and then you look, you know, small coin

1411
01:05:07,560 --> 01:05:09,960
Speaker 4: flips with Rice. You know, I think that they could

1412
01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 4: win the Boston College game that there's so many questions

1413
01:05:12,560 --> 01:05:14,520
Speaker 4: going on at that program. And then you got Georgia

1414
01:05:14,560 --> 01:05:16,960
Speaker 4: State on here. There are a lot of winnable games

1415
01:05:17,000 --> 01:05:17,360
Speaker 4: on here.

1416
01:05:17,880 --> 01:05:18,360
Speaker 1: He's code.

1417
01:05:18,400 --> 01:05:20,360
Speaker 4: I mean, what Jim Mooren did last year was coach

1418
01:05:20,400 --> 01:05:22,560
Speaker 4: of the Year type stuff, getting them to a ball

1419
01:05:22,600 --> 01:05:24,480
Speaker 4: game from where they've been. Yeah, I'm on, let's do

1420
01:05:24,520 --> 01:05:24,880
Speaker 4: it over.

1421
01:05:25,600 --> 01:05:27,960
Speaker 6: I'll just set my Travelers Championship Cup as we all

1422
01:05:28,000 --> 01:05:29,840
Speaker 6: talk about. You gone, all.

1423
01:05:29,840 --> 01:05:33,400
Speaker 2: Right, Let's stay in the Northeast with another independent team

1424
01:05:33,880 --> 01:05:37,840
Speaker 2: that's the US Army. Win total said six makes sense.

1425
01:05:37,880 --> 01:05:40,080
Speaker 2: They went six and six last year. They return eighty

1426
01:05:40,080 --> 01:05:43,440
Speaker 2: percent of their line starts, ten starters overall, their kickers back,

1427
01:05:43,960 --> 01:05:46,760
Speaker 2: but negative three point five in that tarp No shock

1428
01:05:46,760 --> 01:05:48,920
Speaker 2: are there. You know you can't exactly just transfer into

1429
01:05:49,040 --> 01:05:51,800
Speaker 2: Army halfway through. I'll just skip being you know, a

1430
01:05:51,840 --> 01:05:53,919
Speaker 2: first year. That's fine. They're negative five in the tarp

1431
01:05:54,000 --> 01:05:58,640
Speaker 2: on offense. Here's here's the big headline. The triple's gone.

1432
01:05:58,680 --> 01:06:00,920
Speaker 2: They got a new shotgun attack. Their running back room

1433
01:06:01,000 --> 01:06:03,240
Speaker 2: naturally is super deep, which actually is going to help

1434
01:06:03,280 --> 01:06:05,240
Speaker 2: a little bit because even though they're breaking in a

1435
01:06:05,320 --> 01:06:08,160
Speaker 2: new quarterback and Bryson daily, they want to have experience

1436
01:06:08,200 --> 01:06:11,480
Speaker 2: at running back. Because Drew Thatcher's system coming from D

1437
01:06:11,600 --> 01:06:17,040
Speaker 2: two Nebraska, Kearney is super effective from a shotgun run perspective.

1438
01:06:17,240 --> 01:06:20,200
Speaker 2: They were fifth in Division two last year on the

1439
01:06:20,200 --> 01:06:22,080
Speaker 2: ground with two hundred and sixty five yards per game,

1440
01:06:22,240 --> 01:06:25,560
Speaker 2: almost six yards per carry, and he was super effective

1441
01:06:25,760 --> 01:06:28,040
Speaker 2: in the red zone. That's where he made his bones.

1442
01:06:28,200 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 2: He's a guy who can get the ball in the

1443
01:06:29,800 --> 01:06:32,240
Speaker 2: end zone with his play calling, and that's great when

1444
01:06:32,240 --> 01:06:34,720
Speaker 2: you pair it up with what Army has on defense.

1445
01:06:34,760 --> 01:06:36,400
Speaker 2: For at least what they had last year, they were

1446
01:06:36,400 --> 01:06:38,640
Speaker 2: the third ranked past defense in the entire country, but

1447
01:06:39,000 --> 01:06:40,920
Speaker 2: one of the worst run defenses in the entire country

1448
01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:43,480
Speaker 2: one hundred and eighteenth. So what that says to me

1449
01:06:43,560 --> 01:06:45,400
Speaker 2: is you got to get leads early in the game.

1450
01:06:45,640 --> 01:06:48,280
Speaker 2: So the team's abandoned the run because if they're allowed

1451
01:06:48,280 --> 01:06:51,000
Speaker 2: to stick to it, Army's just going to be an

1452
01:06:51,040 --> 01:06:54,280
Speaker 2: absolute sieve in their front seven. They lose Andre Carter

1453
01:06:54,360 --> 01:06:56,600
Speaker 2: the second so where is that pressure from the edge

1454
01:06:56,640 --> 01:06:59,320
Speaker 2: coming from. They finished the year three and one. They

1455
01:06:59,360 --> 01:07:02,120
Speaker 2: nearly upset Troy, they lose by one. There they whipped youkon.

1456
01:07:02,320 --> 01:07:04,400
Speaker 2: We just talked about how much we'd like them, But

1457
01:07:04,440 --> 01:07:07,600
Speaker 2: then the schedule. The schedule to me is absolutely thorny.

1458
01:07:07,800 --> 01:07:09,919
Speaker 2: They got to go to Utsa meet meep, they gotta

1459
01:07:09,960 --> 01:07:12,280
Speaker 2: go to the Carrier Dome to play Syracuse, They host

1460
01:07:12,400 --> 01:07:15,640
Speaker 2: BC Winnable Game, they host Troy, you know, in a

1461
01:07:15,680 --> 01:07:17,720
Speaker 2: revenge spot. But then they go to Death Alley to

1462
01:07:17,720 --> 01:07:19,920
Speaker 2: play LSU. They get Air Force in Denver, and they

1463
01:07:19,920 --> 01:07:23,000
Speaker 2: got to play Coastal Caroline at home. I don't love

1464
01:07:23,040 --> 01:07:26,120
Speaker 2: this schedule. I'm excited, and I hope that Monkin made

1465
01:07:26,120 --> 01:07:28,840
Speaker 2: the right move going to Thatcher and that this offense works.

1466
01:07:28,880 --> 01:07:31,440
Speaker 2: But six is too rich for Michael. This is a

1467
01:07:31,480 --> 01:07:33,600
Speaker 2: pass and gun. To my head, I'm probably going under

1468
01:07:33,800 --> 01:07:35,440
Speaker 2: on Army here. What do you think, Colin.

1469
01:07:36,040 --> 01:07:37,760
Speaker 4: I've projected at five point eight, so it's a no

1470
01:07:37,840 --> 01:07:39,880
Speaker 4: play for me. But I am not trying to take

1471
01:07:39,960 --> 01:07:42,360
Speaker 4: a win total over on a team that has to

1472
01:07:42,520 --> 01:07:47,040
Speaker 4: chuck their entire offensive identity. I will say that the

1473
01:07:47,120 --> 01:07:50,280
Speaker 4: rule changes that you can't do chop blocks or block

1474
01:07:50,360 --> 01:07:52,800
Speaker 4: below the belt. That went into effect last year, and

1475
01:07:53,440 --> 01:07:56,120
Speaker 4: I'm not saying it was directly involved, but Army was

1476
01:07:56,200 --> 01:07:58,440
Speaker 4: I think preseason win total seven and a half eight

1477
01:07:58,480 --> 01:08:00,200
Speaker 4: and they finished with six wins, so they didn't get

1478
01:08:00,200 --> 01:08:03,240
Speaker 4: close to covering going over their their win total from

1479
01:08:03,280 --> 01:08:05,120
Speaker 4: last year. I think that's still going to play in effect.

1480
01:08:05,160 --> 01:08:08,320
Speaker 4: You just can't lose an identity like this, not have

1481
01:08:08,400 --> 01:08:11,160
Speaker 4: access to the portal you know, and expect to expect

1482
01:08:11,200 --> 01:08:13,560
Speaker 4: to win seven games. So I'm not taking an over here.

1483
01:08:13,600 --> 01:08:14,680
Speaker 4: I projected five point eight.

1484
01:08:15,160 --> 01:08:17,639
Speaker 6: I'm the count with you, guys. Worry it's more concern

1485
01:08:17,720 --> 01:08:20,200
Speaker 6: than optimism. I mean, look at when when Georgia Tack

1486
01:08:20,280 --> 01:08:23,840
Speaker 6: tried to abandon the option. I mean you could argue

1487
01:08:23,880 --> 01:08:26,200
Speaker 6: they still haven't been able to come up with a

1488
01:08:26,439 --> 01:08:29,200
Speaker 6: working offense, so you know it took them years too.

1489
01:08:29,200 --> 01:08:30,800
Speaker 4: They're not going to the I'm sorry, they're not going

1490
01:08:30,840 --> 01:08:33,200
Speaker 4: to the Georgia Southern model either. Right, it's not like

1491
01:08:33,240 --> 01:08:35,280
Speaker 4: we're beinging bringing ban trees in to throw bombs.

1492
01:08:35,920 --> 01:08:38,839
Speaker 6: You mentioned the transfer thing. It's like they can't even

1493
01:08:39,760 --> 01:08:42,360
Speaker 6: revamp the team if they wanted to, so they're basically

1494
01:08:42,960 --> 01:08:48,680
Speaker 6: running like a you know, coastal style offense with option players.

1495
01:08:49,120 --> 01:08:51,639
Speaker 2: I'm out on it, kind of laughing to myself about

1496
01:08:51,680 --> 01:08:53,560
Speaker 2: the visual of some transfer just showing up as a

1497
01:08:53,640 --> 01:08:55,479
Speaker 2: junior would be like I have to do push ups,

1498
01:08:55,520 --> 01:08:57,640
Speaker 2: I have to wake up when exactly.

1499
01:08:57,280 --> 01:08:59,920
Speaker 6: Like I hope, I hope Navy and Air Force just

1500
01:09:01,200 --> 01:09:03,240
Speaker 6: blow the doors off them and teach them a lesson.

1501
01:09:04,760 --> 01:09:06,920
Speaker 6: Run the option down their throat, just show them what

1502
01:09:06,960 --> 01:09:07,559
Speaker 6: they're missing.

1503
01:09:07,840 --> 01:09:10,040
Speaker 2: Well, we'll see, I mean, Navy's making their own little

1504
01:09:10,120 --> 01:09:12,559
Speaker 2: we'll switch. It's not quite as drastic as it's probably

1505
01:09:12,560 --> 01:09:13,280
Speaker 2: gonna be from Army.

1506
01:09:13,280 --> 01:09:13,599
Speaker 1: All right.

1507
01:09:13,960 --> 01:09:16,320
Speaker 2: We turned to the krem Dela creme of the independence.

1508
01:09:16,360 --> 01:09:19,280
Speaker 2: Of course, Notre Dame nine to four on the year,

1509
01:09:19,360 --> 01:09:21,759
Speaker 2: their win total set at eight and a half sixty

1510
01:09:22,080 --> 01:09:24,360
Speaker 2: one percent of their line starts to return there, plus

1511
01:09:24,400 --> 01:09:27,439
Speaker 2: one in the net tarpic and plus two bump on offense.

1512
01:09:27,880 --> 01:09:32,000
Speaker 2: Fifteen returning starters, including Sam Hartman. Actually he's not included,

1513
01:09:32,040 --> 01:09:35,439
Speaker 2: but fifteen starters otherwise from last year's team. Chris Tyree

1514
01:09:35,479 --> 01:09:37,639
Speaker 2: moves from running back to the slot, saying the stage

1515
01:09:37,640 --> 01:09:41,080
Speaker 2: for a big year for Audric Estime. Gerard Parker the

1516
01:09:41,120 --> 01:09:45,040
Speaker 2: new OC. He made Letty Brown a touchdown machine at

1517
01:09:45,040 --> 01:09:48,040
Speaker 2: West Virginia. So Estima is someone I'm circling from a

1518
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:50,280
Speaker 2: fantasy perspective. If you're in a state where you can

1519
01:09:50,280 --> 01:09:53,840
Speaker 2: bet overs or touchdowns on college players. He's someone to

1520
01:09:53,880 --> 01:09:57,679
Speaker 2: lock in on. Al Goldin's defense. It was fine last year,

1521
01:09:57,800 --> 01:09:59,840
Speaker 2: but they got punched in the mouth and pounded on

1522
01:09:59,880 --> 01:10:02,960
Speaker 2: the ground by Ohio State, Marshall and USC. Can they

1523
01:10:03,000 --> 01:10:06,000
Speaker 2: fix that because the receipt their linebacker in queries should

1524
01:10:06,000 --> 01:10:08,960
Speaker 2: say is really good. They got difference makers there, but

1525
01:10:09,040 --> 01:10:11,320
Speaker 2: they don't have difference makers on the edge. Losing Isaiah

1526
01:10:11,320 --> 01:10:13,760
Speaker 2: Foski to the NFL is going to hurt them. Is

1527
01:10:13,800 --> 01:10:16,360
Speaker 2: anyone good enough to step up and be a ten

1528
01:10:16,400 --> 01:10:19,240
Speaker 2: plus tackle for lost kind of guy? The secondary is good,

1529
01:10:19,479 --> 01:10:21,400
Speaker 2: but they could probably use a difference maker to emerge

1530
01:10:21,400 --> 01:10:23,880
Speaker 2: at safety, and really, I think the the thing about

1531
01:10:23,880 --> 01:10:26,200
Speaker 2: their win total is that the schedule is really workable,

1532
01:10:26,240 --> 01:10:29,080
Speaker 2: with the headline being no rough back to backs. They

1533
01:10:29,120 --> 01:10:33,160
Speaker 2: start abroad in Ireland against Navy, their three touchdown favorite there.

1534
01:10:33,439 --> 01:10:34,960
Speaker 2: I think a lot of people here at the Action

1535
01:10:35,080 --> 01:10:38,160
Speaker 2: Network are locked in on the mids there catching the points.

1536
01:10:38,360 --> 01:10:40,639
Speaker 2: I do think Notre Dame is not in any real

1537
01:10:40,720 --> 01:10:44,120
Speaker 2: danger to lose outright. Then they get their first HBCU

1538
01:10:44,280 --> 01:10:47,040
Speaker 2: in program history with Tennessee State travel in South Bend,

1539
01:10:47,360 --> 01:10:50,080
Speaker 2: then at NC State, then home against Central Michigan. So

1540
01:10:50,120 --> 01:10:52,560
Speaker 2: that's the theme. It's like a little bit thorny, a

1541
01:10:52,600 --> 01:10:54,800
Speaker 2: little bit challenging, and then a game to catch their breath.

1542
01:10:54,800 --> 01:10:56,840
Speaker 2: They got Ohio State coming to South Bend in week

1543
01:10:56,880 --> 01:11:00,720
Speaker 2: five of the nd season USC on October fourteenth. I

1544
01:11:00,760 --> 01:11:02,880
Speaker 2: think this is a team that should go nine to three.

1545
01:11:02,880 --> 01:11:04,160
Speaker 2: If I had to play it, I'd play it on

1546
01:11:04,200 --> 01:11:07,320
Speaker 2: the over. And Sam Hartman certainly is a major upgrade

1547
01:11:07,360 --> 01:11:10,000
Speaker 2: at quarterback. I just am not quite sure how it's

1548
01:11:10,000 --> 01:11:13,000
Speaker 2: all going to fit together with this new OC Marcus

1549
01:11:13,000 --> 01:11:15,600
Speaker 2: Freeman and Al Golden trying to rework the defense a

1550
01:11:15,600 --> 01:11:19,360
Speaker 2: little bit. Obviously, their expectations are always outsized. They're like,

1551
01:11:19,400 --> 01:11:21,960
Speaker 2: you know, the Lakers, the Yankees, the Cowboys. People want

1552
01:11:21,960 --> 01:11:24,080
Speaker 2: to focus on them. Are they a college football play

1553
01:11:24,080 --> 01:11:26,000
Speaker 2: on team? I don't think that they are. But I

1554
01:11:26,000 --> 01:11:28,960
Speaker 2: think this schedule is pointing towards the over. Do you agree,

1555
01:11:29,120 --> 01:11:31,720
Speaker 2: Colin or is this another situation We're going to keep

1556
01:11:31,800 --> 01:11:33,760
Speaker 2: your money on the sideline.

1557
01:11:33,520 --> 01:11:36,400
Speaker 4: The number for me is eight point nine, which says

1558
01:11:36,400 --> 01:11:38,000
Speaker 4: that you should go over eight and a half.

1559
01:11:38,080 --> 01:11:38,519
Speaker 1: But I have.

1560
01:11:38,600 --> 01:11:41,000
Speaker 4: Serious issues with this Notre Dame team, and starting with

1561
01:11:41,000 --> 01:11:43,439
Speaker 4: who they named his offensive coordinator, Like when Tommy Reevez

1562
01:11:43,520 --> 01:11:46,880
Speaker 4: got plucked, there were no options, so we went and

1563
01:11:46,920 --> 01:11:49,680
Speaker 4: got Gerard Parker, which I mean, someone will want to

1564
01:11:49,760 --> 01:11:51,639
Speaker 4: verify this. What is is he nineteen years old?

1565
01:11:51,680 --> 01:11:52,200
Speaker 1: Is he shaving?

1566
01:11:52,479 --> 01:11:54,599
Speaker 4: He's never called a play in his life. He's never

1567
01:11:54,600 --> 01:11:56,559
Speaker 4: called a play in his life. And you already had

1568
01:11:56,600 --> 01:11:59,080
Speaker 4: problems getting points up on the board. I mean, you

1569
01:11:59,200 --> 01:12:01,360
Speaker 4: had a great run back tandem last year that was

1570
01:12:01,360 --> 01:12:03,519
Speaker 4: able to get it into the end zone. But is

1571
01:12:03,520 --> 01:12:07,599
Speaker 4: Sam Hartman's mesh rpo None of these targets have real

1572
01:12:07,640 --> 01:12:10,680
Speaker 4: experience on the outside. You're losing Michael Mayer. How is

1573
01:12:10,720 --> 01:12:15,280
Speaker 4: this offense going to keep score with Duke Duken score points?

1574
01:12:15,320 --> 01:12:18,559
Speaker 4: By the way, with Ryley Leonard about Louisville Jeff Brahms offense.

1575
01:12:19,040 --> 01:12:21,760
Speaker 4: What about a game that I believe in the Game

1576
01:12:21,760 --> 01:12:23,759
Speaker 4: of the year market is within a field goal against

1577
01:12:23,880 --> 01:12:27,400
Speaker 4: USC USC and I know the Notre Dame defense is good.

1578
01:12:27,400 --> 01:12:29,519
Speaker 4: I'm not going to back on Marcus Freeman. I probably

1579
01:12:29,520 --> 01:12:32,599
Speaker 4: will later, but how are you going to score enough

1580
01:12:32,600 --> 01:12:34,479
Speaker 4: points to keep up with USC? You think it's like

1581
01:12:34,520 --> 01:12:36,360
Speaker 4: Ohio State last You think your defense can hold that

1582
01:12:36,400 --> 01:12:38,040
Speaker 4: down for four quarters, You're not going to be able

1583
01:12:38,040 --> 01:12:41,200
Speaker 4: to with Caleb Williams. I instead of taking an under

1584
01:12:41,320 --> 01:12:44,400
Speaker 4: or and over, would rather just take USC on a

1585
01:12:44,400 --> 01:12:46,080
Speaker 4: Game of the year line to beat the Irish. I

1586
01:12:46,360 --> 01:12:48,840
Speaker 4: have serious issues with the offensive side of the ball.

1587
01:12:49,280 --> 01:12:52,920
Speaker 4: I understand Sam Hartman's decision, a lot of it was

1588
01:12:53,040 --> 01:12:55,120
Speaker 4: nil and what he was promised that he is getting

1589
01:12:55,160 --> 01:12:57,320
Speaker 4: while he's there, But you don't have the pieces that

1590
01:12:57,360 --> 01:12:58,160
Speaker 4: you had at Wake Forest.

1591
01:12:58,200 --> 01:13:00,480
Speaker 1: From a wide receiver standpoint.

1592
01:13:00,320 --> 01:13:02,040
Speaker 6: Would you say the win total was eight and a half?

1593
01:13:02,520 --> 01:13:02,960
Speaker 1: That's right?

1594
01:13:03,880 --> 01:13:06,280
Speaker 6: Yeah, So again my problem I'm with you kon where

1595
01:13:07,240 --> 01:13:11,080
Speaker 6: I like Hartman, but Notre Dame doesn't have an at Perry.

1596
01:13:11,280 --> 01:13:13,479
Speaker 6: You know, Notre Dame does not have the weapons wake

1597
01:13:13,560 --> 01:13:16,480
Speaker 6: Forest had. You saw it last year. Notre Dame's receivers

1598
01:13:16,760 --> 01:13:19,000
Speaker 6: are pretty below average, and I don't know that they

1599
01:13:19,080 --> 01:13:21,880
Speaker 6: necessarily have anyone that is in the position to step

1600
01:13:21,960 --> 01:13:24,320
Speaker 6: up per Se. The problem with that that eight and

1601
01:13:24,400 --> 01:13:27,320
Speaker 6: a half is, you know, you gotta win nine games

1602
01:13:27,320 --> 01:13:30,160
Speaker 6: and when you look at their schedule, you kind of

1603
01:13:30,200 --> 01:13:34,479
Speaker 6: assume Ohio State, USC and Clemson are probably losses, so

1604
01:13:34,720 --> 01:13:39,040
Speaker 6: you can't lose any other game. And you mentioned Duke

1605
01:13:39,479 --> 01:13:45,240
Speaker 6: Louisville like they have other losible games on this schedule.

1606
01:13:45,280 --> 01:13:47,280
Speaker 6: You know, you don't think wake Forest wants to beat

1607
01:13:47,280 --> 01:13:49,040
Speaker 6: Sam Harmon, And yeah, you can make the same argument

1608
01:13:49,080 --> 01:13:51,280
Speaker 6: he wants to beat them, But you have the little

1609
01:13:51,280 --> 01:13:53,320
Speaker 6: revenge backer there, you know, filled your covich Not that

1610
01:13:53,320 --> 01:13:55,920
Speaker 6: I think Pitt's gonna beat them, but your COVID started

1611
01:13:55,920 --> 01:14:00,679
Speaker 6: at Notre Dame. They have enough other losible games where

1612
01:14:00,880 --> 01:14:04,240
Speaker 6: when I'm pretty confident they're gonna lose three, I don't

1613
01:14:04,280 --> 01:14:05,680
Speaker 6: know that I want to just like bet them to

1614
01:14:05,720 --> 01:14:08,760
Speaker 6: win the rest of the board. To Collin's point, if

1615
01:14:08,800 --> 01:14:10,799
Speaker 6: you believe Notre Name, just like bet them against Louisville,

1616
01:14:10,840 --> 01:14:13,360
Speaker 6: and if you don't bet Louisville in that game, and

1617
01:14:13,400 --> 01:14:15,000
Speaker 6: then you don't have to tie your money up all year.

1618
01:14:15,600 --> 01:14:18,240
Speaker 2: I'll allow you to reframe this column. But would you say,

1619
01:14:18,360 --> 01:14:20,760
Speaker 2: in the class of Independence, the game of the year

1620
01:14:21,120 --> 01:14:23,559
Speaker 2: USC play is your number one on the board if

1621
01:14:23,600 --> 01:14:25,240
Speaker 2: you had a draft some options.

1622
01:14:24,840 --> 01:14:27,200
Speaker 1: Here, Yeah, definitely number one on the board.

1623
01:14:27,439 --> 01:14:31,080
Speaker 2: You've talked me into it being a peer pass in

1624
01:14:31,160 --> 01:14:33,679
Speaker 2: terms of my favorite play here, I'm gonna go ahead

1625
01:14:33,720 --> 01:14:35,360
Speaker 2: and parlay. Not all books allow you to do this.

1626
01:14:35,400 --> 01:14:38,000
Speaker 2: I'm gonna parlay the Yukon over and the Army under.

1627
01:14:38,200 --> 01:14:40,320
Speaker 2: You know, dance with the team that I know, and

1628
01:14:40,360 --> 01:14:42,920
Speaker 2: it's Yukon. I know their identity. I think they're gonna

1629
01:14:42,920 --> 01:14:45,080
Speaker 2: get a little bit better defensively, I think their quarterback

1630
01:14:45,120 --> 01:14:46,760
Speaker 2: play is going to improve a little bit. And it's

1631
01:14:46,760 --> 01:14:49,080
Speaker 2: a very modest win total with a lot of winnable games.

1632
01:14:49,360 --> 01:14:51,120
Speaker 2: And then Army they just you know, they have this

1633
01:14:51,360 --> 01:14:54,479
Speaker 2: mismatched pieces to try to put together a shotgun spread

1634
01:14:54,560 --> 01:14:57,040
Speaker 2: rushing attack. I don't see it. So I'm gonna go

1635
01:14:57,040 --> 01:14:59,160
Speaker 2: ahead and under there on a team that won six

1636
01:14:59,200 --> 01:15:01,599
Speaker 2: games last year, I would be shocked if they got

1637
01:15:01,600 --> 01:15:03,760
Speaker 2: to seven wins this time around. I know what's your

1638
01:15:03,760 --> 01:15:04,519
Speaker 2: favorite play here?

1639
01:15:04,920 --> 01:15:08,280
Speaker 6: Co Huske People Forget Yukon is a very recent national campaign.

1640
01:15:08,520 --> 01:15:11,080
Speaker 2: We're Colin Wilson, Mike Ianello on Mike Calabery's This has

1641
01:15:11,120 --> 01:15:13,280
Speaker 2: been the Big Bets on Campus podcast, brought to you

1642
01:15:13,280 --> 01:15:17,360
Speaker 2: by Bett MGM, and we got eight more conference previews

1643
01:15:17,400 --> 01:15:18,680
Speaker 2: for you in the coming weeks. So we're going to

1644
01:15:18,760 --> 01:15:21,320
Speaker 2: hit everything from the Power Five and the Group of

1645
01:15:21,320 --> 01:15:24,000
Speaker 2: Five and Colin and Stuck are going to cut up

1646
01:15:24,040 --> 01:15:27,120
Speaker 2: the SEC into the SEC West and SEC East. So

1647
01:15:27,200 --> 01:15:29,559
Speaker 2: make sure to check your podcast feeds. And a special

1648
01:15:29,600 --> 01:15:32,160
Speaker 2: thanks to our video and audio team Matt Mitchell, our producer,

1649
01:15:32,240 --> 01:15:34,479
Speaker 2: Thank you so much for listening, and we're one step

1650
01:15:34,520 --> 01:15:36,760
Speaker 2: closer to Week zero. College Repulse Almost back.

1651
01:15:48,360 --> 01:15:52,880
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1652
01:15:52,920 --> 01:15:55,680
Speaker 3: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1653
01:15:55,720 --> 01:15:58,839
Speaker 3: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler