WEBVTT - Future Shock 2023, Part 3 0:00:03.040 --> 0:00:07.080 Welcome to Stuff to Blow Your Mind, a production of iHeartRadio. 0:00:12.800 --> 0:00:14.920 Hey you welcome to Stuff to Blow your Mind. My 0:00:15.000 --> 0:00:16.320 name is Robert Lamb. 0:00:16.280 --> 0:00:19.079 And I'm Joe McCormick, and we're back with part three 0:00:19.280 --> 0:00:23.080 in our series on Future Shock, the title and the 0:00:23.120 --> 0:00:27.440 subject of a best selling futurology book from more than 0:00:27.480 --> 0:00:30.720 fifty years ago. If you haven't heard parts one and 0:00:30.760 --> 0:00:32.720 two yet, you should probably go back and listen to 0:00:32.760 --> 0:00:35.720 those first. That'll help you understand what we're talking about today. 0:00:36.159 --> 0:00:38.720 But I thought we could start with a recap here 0:00:38.760 --> 0:00:41.879 at the top. So Future Shock is the name of 0:00:41.920 --> 0:00:45.879 a very influential book published in nineteen seventy by an 0:00:45.920 --> 0:00:49.360 author named Alvin Toffler, who was known to be a 0:00:49.400 --> 0:00:53.159 close collaborator with his wife, Heidi Toffler. So in this 0:00:53.280 --> 0:00:56.000 series we've sometimes been speaking of the ideas of the 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:59.680 Tofflers rather than just Alvin, though originally he was credited 0:00:59.680 --> 0:01:02.480 as the sole author of the book. And I would 0:01:02.520 --> 0:01:06.360 describe the main idea of the book Future Shock as follows. So, 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:10.360 of course, the human technological tool set is always changing 0:01:10.480 --> 0:01:14.240 to some degree, but the age beginning in like the 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:17.880 second half of the twentieth century is truly a special 0:01:17.920 --> 0:01:21.160 time in history. It's a time when technology is developing 0:01:21.360 --> 0:01:24.560 much much faster than ever before. I think there are 0:01:24.560 --> 0:01:26.560 a lot of data points you could use to show 0:01:26.600 --> 0:01:29.600 that it's not just that it feels this way, but 0:01:29.680 --> 0:01:34.320 this is objectively true, Like you could measure the rate 0:01:34.360 --> 0:01:38.360 of acceleration of energy consumed around the world, the accelerating 0:01:38.480 --> 0:01:43.240 number of patents issued, the productivity in various industries per worker, 0:01:44.240 --> 0:01:49.440 the acceleration of time spent on technologically mediated activities, and 0:01:49.480 --> 0:01:53.600 so forth. And the authors of this book argue that 0:01:53.680 --> 0:01:57.200 these changes are so drastic we should think of the 0:01:57.720 --> 0:02:01.360 time beginning in the mid twentieth century as a totally 0:02:01.480 --> 0:02:05.680 new technology regime. Maybe the previous regimes began with the 0:02:05.720 --> 0:02:09.800 transition from hunter gatherer lifestyle to agriculture, and then after 0:02:09.840 --> 0:02:13.600 that the transition to the industrial age through inventions like 0:02:13.639 --> 0:02:16.240 the steam engine, and then this would be the third one. 0:02:16.280 --> 0:02:18.560 And this new age that we exist in they call 0:02:18.639 --> 0:02:24.520 the super Industrial Age, and the acceleration in technological change 0:02:24.840 --> 0:02:27.800 that characterizes this age may of course come with lots 0:02:27.800 --> 0:02:30.600 of benefits for human life. You can easily point to 0:02:30.880 --> 0:02:35.480 medical advances that make life human life longer and help 0:02:35.480 --> 0:02:38.239 people live with less illness, and you know, all kinds 0:02:38.280 --> 0:02:43.359 of things that are pretty unambiguous positive impacts on human life. 0:02:43.400 --> 0:02:47.280 But the Tofflers argue that these changes also come with 0:02:47.360 --> 0:02:51.679 a profound cost that we have to understand and prepare for. 0:02:52.160 --> 0:02:54.280 And the cost that they focus on in the book 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:59.000 is a mass psychological condition that they call future shock, 0:02:59.240 --> 0:03:02.840 and they compare future shock to the pre existing idea 0:03:02.880 --> 0:03:06.320 of culture shock, which is the state of anxiety and 0:03:06.360 --> 0:03:09.480 psychic distress brought on when somebody is plunged into an 0:03:09.600 --> 0:03:13.200 unfamiliar culture where they don't speak the language, they don't 0:03:13.240 --> 0:03:16.080 understand the laws or customs, they don't know how to 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:19.760 interact with anything. They say future shock is like that, 0:03:20.080 --> 0:03:24.520 but for one's own culture, as it changes rapidly around 0:03:24.600 --> 0:03:27.080 us due to the effects of the new science and 0:03:27.120 --> 0:03:30.240 the new machines. And they say this new environment will 0:03:30.280 --> 0:03:36.240 be characterized primarily by transience, novelty, and diversity. So transience 0:03:36.600 --> 0:03:41.240 things situations coming into and out of being faster and faster, 0:03:41.880 --> 0:03:46.200 arrangements lasting for shorter periods of time of course, novelty 0:03:46.400 --> 0:03:48.840 meaning new things you've never had to deal with before, 0:03:49.200 --> 0:03:52.000 and diversity meaning just a lot of different things. To 0:03:52.160 --> 0:03:55.600 understand and decide between and choose from. And so the 0:03:55.600 --> 0:03:59.000 Topler's right that these changes in technology have profound effects, 0:03:59.760 --> 0:04:02.320 not just on the gadgets we deal with, but you know, 0:04:02.360 --> 0:04:06.640 they've got these secondary effects that revolutionize our work lives, 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.920 our family lives, our minds, and our culture. And that 0:04:09.960 --> 0:04:14.680 the accelerating rate of change alters our culture faster than 0:04:14.720 --> 0:04:17.400 most people are able to adapt, so we can never 0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:20.800 get used to it. We can never grow accustomed to 0:04:20.880 --> 0:04:24.239 the new normal as people can when overcoming culture shock, 0:04:24.279 --> 0:04:27.279 because with culture shock you can eventually maybe learn the 0:04:27.360 --> 0:04:31.839 language and learn the local norms and adapt. Or you conversely, 0:04:32.120 --> 0:04:34.920 you can just go home. With future shock, you can't 0:04:34.920 --> 0:04:36.719 ever really do that because you can't go back to 0:04:36.760 --> 0:04:40.200 the past, and by the time you get used to it, 0:04:40.240 --> 0:04:42.599 you learn the new language and the new customs, it 0:04:42.640 --> 0:04:45.760 has changed again. And technology will just keep changing the 0:04:45.760 --> 0:04:49.279 world faster and faster, so we can never keep up. 0:04:49.839 --> 0:04:54.920 And they say this leads to a widespread sense of unease, anxiety, frustration, 0:04:55.080 --> 0:04:58.760 and confusion, the future shock that defines our age. 0:04:59.400 --> 0:05:01.719 You know, I have to throw in here that in 0:05:01.760 --> 0:05:04.640 the first episode I mentioned that when I explained the 0:05:04.680 --> 0:05:06.320 concept again to my wife. She was like, Oh, well, 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:08.440 that's not real. I don't really believe that's the thing. 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:12.919 But then a listener wrote in and encouraged everyone to 0:05:13.000 --> 0:05:17.320 watch a particular episode of SpongeBob square Pants, an episode 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:20.200 or part of an episode titled SB one nine, in 0:05:20.240 --> 0:05:24.240 which Squidward travels into the future and is overcome by 0:05:24.279 --> 0:05:28.280 all of the chrome technological advancements around him, including multiple 0:05:28.320 --> 0:05:31.400 SpongeBob clones, curls up in a ball on the floor 0:05:31.440 --> 0:05:34.960 and begins to go future future over and over again. 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:38.479 My family watched this episode over the weekend, and my 0:05:38.520 --> 0:05:40.919 wife tells me that now she understands future shock. 0:05:41.120 --> 0:05:44.279 Oh okay, wait, she understands it, but still thinks that 0:05:44.360 --> 0:05:46.680 it does not describe the reality we live in. Or 0:05:46.720 --> 0:05:49.200 she does think it describes the reality we live in. 0:05:49.720 --> 0:05:53.720 I would say that she understands the concept and sees 0:05:53.839 --> 0:05:57.320 how you could apply that concept to some of our 0:05:57.360 --> 0:05:59.680 interactions with technology today. 0:06:00.160 --> 0:06:04.240 Okay, so she's partially converted, thinks it is partially descriptive 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:04.960 of reality. 0:06:05.360 --> 0:06:07.400 Yeah, you can't argue with squidword on this one. 0:06:07.800 --> 0:06:09.400 I'd say that's where I am. I think it is 0:06:09.480 --> 0:06:12.200 partially correct, partially descriptive of our reality. 0:06:12.920 --> 0:06:13.320 Yeah. 0:06:13.520 --> 0:06:15.880 Well, anyway, in this series, we've been taking a look 0:06:15.920 --> 0:06:20.039 at this fifty three year old book future Ology to 0:06:20.120 --> 0:06:22.039 see what we think about it, what we think the 0:06:22.080 --> 0:06:24.640 Tofflers were right about, what we think they were wrong about, 0:06:25.320 --> 0:06:27.880 if there's any empirical evidence that can be brought in 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:31.559 to assess the accuracy of their predictions, and so forth. 0:06:31.680 --> 0:06:34.039 And so we've already talked about a number of their 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:38.120 specific predictions about the future. Though to be fair, I 0:06:38.160 --> 0:06:40.640 do recall there's a part in the book where Toffler says, 0:06:41.040 --> 0:06:44.839 these are not quote predictions. You know, so when I say, like, 0:06:45.240 --> 0:06:47.160 in the future, we're going to be living a lot 0:06:47.200 --> 0:06:49.880 more underneath the ocean and having to learn to navigate 0:06:49.960 --> 0:06:53.279 submarine environments and stuff, for some reason, he says, they're 0:06:53.279 --> 0:06:57.160 not predictions. They're more just sort of like imaginings, and 0:06:57.520 --> 0:07:01.480 we shouldn't be overly concerned with whether d specifics are right, 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:06.240 but instead should think about the general trend. Okay, fair enough, Alvin, 0:07:06.600 --> 0:07:10.200 But in fact, the way we use the word prediction, 0:07:10.360 --> 0:07:12.560 I do think these are predictions, so I think it's 0:07:12.560 --> 0:07:14.559 fair to describe them that way, even though he didn't 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:15.480 like using that word. 0:07:16.240 --> 0:07:17.880 Yeah, I kind of see where he's coming from. Like, 0:07:17.920 --> 0:07:23.160 he's not saying we will definitely put embryos on spaceships 0:07:23.160 --> 0:07:26.520 and send them to other planets, but he points to 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:30.880 that as sort of like in the Tree of conceivable possibilities, 0:07:30.920 --> 0:07:35.320 based on like unchecked scientific advancement, that's somewhere we might 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:38.840 get to. And if we do get there, are we 0:07:39.160 --> 0:07:42.760 really ready to deal with that? And I'd think the 0:07:42.800 --> 0:07:45.480 most part he tends to lay out those ideas in 0:07:45.520 --> 0:07:48.600 a very sort of neutral fashion, though again, it is 0:07:48.640 --> 0:07:52.320 a book written in the late sixties, published in nineteen seventy, 0:07:52.400 --> 0:07:56.440 and some of that cultural texture is there, as we've discussed, agreed. 0:07:56.960 --> 0:08:00.560 But anyway, in the previous episodes, we've talked about of 0:08:00.600 --> 0:08:03.120 these things which I do think are fair to call predictions, 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:08.120 but you're right, he couches them in a more nuanced way, 0:08:09.120 --> 0:08:13.200 but they range from quite thoughtful and accurately predictive to 0:08:13.400 --> 0:08:17.400 totally wrong and extremely funny ways. In the former column. 0:08:17.640 --> 0:08:19.280 One thing that stands out to me, I mean, it's 0:08:19.280 --> 0:08:21.440 often been pointed out that, wow, you know, he really 0:08:21.480 --> 0:08:25.360 sort of got a lot right about things like personal 0:08:25.400 --> 0:08:29.800 computers and the internet and how media would change over time. 0:08:29.920 --> 0:08:33.280 Like the rising importance of electronic media more and more 0:08:33.280 --> 0:08:35.640 in human life. I think he was on track about 0:08:35.679 --> 0:08:37.760 a lot of that. One that really stood out to 0:08:37.800 --> 0:08:41.480 me in the book is essentially the prediction of personally 0:08:41.600 --> 0:08:45.880 curated news feeds as opposed to having to read the 0:08:45.920 --> 0:08:49.200 same newspaper or watch the same news evening news as 0:08:49.240 --> 0:08:53.720 everybody else, which I think that's a profoundly meaningful development 0:08:53.800 --> 0:08:56.120 that I'm not so sure would have been easy to 0:08:56.280 --> 0:08:59.520 predict in nineteen seventy. But as an example of the 0:08:59.559 --> 0:09:03.160 things that they got wrong, you know, there is again 0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:05.280 like leaning heavily on the idea that way more of 0:09:05.360 --> 0:09:08.000 human life would shift to take place in the ocean 0:09:08.240 --> 0:09:11.240 or in space. That hasn't really panned out yet and 0:09:11.280 --> 0:09:13.920 I'm kind of doubtful whether it will. And there's a 0:09:13.920 --> 0:09:16.680 bunch of stuff about the changing biomedical environment like that. 0:09:16.840 --> 0:09:19.440 They say a lot about cloning, which in some ways 0:09:19.480 --> 0:09:24.040 I think is pretty accurate about like where the technological 0:09:24.080 --> 0:09:28.120 capability could be going, but wrong about the way that 0:09:28.160 --> 0:09:31.480 it would impact culture and the possibilities it would provide 0:09:31.520 --> 0:09:32.520 to the average person. 0:09:33.000 --> 0:09:33.160 Yeah. 0:09:33.280 --> 0:09:37.640 Yeah, the cloning talk is very interesting. To decide a 0:09:37.679 --> 0:09:40.920 couple of details from it, I mentioned the spaceships already. 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:43.360 That's definitely something that has brought up the idea that well, 0:09:45.360 --> 0:09:47.680 embryo is just way less than people, so it's cheaper 0:09:47.720 --> 0:09:50.920 to blast those into space, and those will presumably robots 0:09:50.920 --> 0:09:53.120 will raise them and grow them when they get to 0:09:53.120 --> 0:09:56.559 where they're going. But there's a bit where he's where 0:09:56.600 --> 0:10:01.800 they're citing molecular biologist Joshua Letterberg, and they raise the 0:10:01.880 --> 0:10:05.000 problem that narcissist will be the most likely to clone 0:10:05.040 --> 0:10:10.000 themselves and this could result in just more narcissist. Though 0:10:10.200 --> 0:10:12.280 Tofler mentions, this is really more of a concern if 0:10:12.400 --> 0:10:17.480 narcissism is biologically transferable rather than culturally transferable. And I 0:10:17.520 --> 0:10:19.680 started looking into this a little bit, and I realized 0:10:19.720 --> 0:10:22.240 we might have to come back and talk about narcissism 0:10:22.240 --> 0:10:24.439 in more detail, because it looks like there have been 0:10:24.520 --> 0:10:30.600 studies about narcissism as possibly being like something you can inherit. 0:10:30.720 --> 0:10:33.600 But I'm not sure where we currently are regarding the 0:10:33.679 --> 0:10:35.800 nature nurture discussion of narcissism. 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:39.199 I mean, if it's like most personality traits that I've 0:10:39.240 --> 0:10:41.679 read about, it's going to be a mix. It will 0:10:41.760 --> 0:10:45.480 usually be that there's some kind of there is a 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:49.480 heritable level of predisposition, but then that that doesn't get 0:10:49.520 --> 0:10:51.240 you all the way there. That just sort of like 0:10:51.320 --> 0:10:55.320 somewhat increases or decreases the chance that a person will 0:10:55.559 --> 0:10:59.240 in a given environment environment develop narcissism. And then there's 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:03.079 probably a huge influence of like you know, experience, childhood, 0:11:03.200 --> 0:11:04.520 upbringing and things like that. 0:11:05.280 --> 0:11:07.720 Yeah, it seems like there's a lot to work out 0:11:07.760 --> 0:11:11.559 before we can actually make an argument for heritability for narcissism. 0:11:11.679 --> 0:11:15.920 But the angle is interesting, I think to me in 0:11:16.040 --> 0:11:19.280 light of the TV series Foundation, which I don't know 0:11:19.280 --> 0:11:22.319 how many listeners out there have been watching this. I 0:11:22.320 --> 0:11:25.360 guess caveat that we did read some ads for Foundation 0:11:25.520 --> 0:11:29.320 on the show, but afterwards we got into watching it 0:11:29.360 --> 0:11:31.080 and really great show. 0:11:31.360 --> 0:11:32.800 But you're not being paid to say this. 0:11:32.960 --> 0:11:34.360 I'm not being paid to say this, but it's a 0:11:34.440 --> 0:11:37.760 terrific show. But there's this whole angle that's apparently not 0:11:37.800 --> 0:11:42.120 in the Asimov books but is quite fascinating on the series, 0:11:42.160 --> 0:11:45.000 and that is that you have this genetic dynasty in 0:11:45.040 --> 0:11:47.920 the Empire where you see a procession of cleon the 0:11:47.960 --> 0:11:54.480 first clones that rule this vast interstellar civilization, and of course, 0:11:55.080 --> 0:11:58.360 many or if not most of them are narcissists. But 0:11:58.520 --> 0:12:00.160 you can also raise the question like how much of 0:12:00.160 --> 0:12:03.160 that is tied up in the genes of Cleon the 0:12:03.200 --> 0:12:05.280 first and how much of it is the way that 0:12:05.360 --> 0:12:09.240 Cleon is raised, because they are you know, they're raised. 0:12:09.320 --> 0:12:11.880 Each one is raised to be the emperor of an 0:12:11.880 --> 0:12:13.880 interstellar civilization. 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:16.360 And presumably raised by other narcissists. 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:20.200 Yeah, you actually do, because you have three at a time. 0:12:20.600 --> 0:12:23.680 So there's there's a brother Don, a brother Day, and 0:12:23.720 --> 0:12:26.720 a brother Dusk. There's like a young version of the Clone, 0:12:27.400 --> 0:12:29.880 an adult version of the Clone, and like an elderly 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.040 version of the Clone, with the middle Clone being the 0:12:32.080 --> 0:12:38.840 primary ruler, and so Day and Dusk are essentially raising Dawn. Anyway, 0:12:38.840 --> 0:12:41.440 we'll put a pin in that for later discussion, But 0:12:42.200 --> 0:12:44.839 in general, the toddlers do raise concerns over a number 0:12:44.840 --> 0:12:49.120 of quote unquote birth technologies, especially the idea of engineering 0:12:49.120 --> 0:12:52.520 certain properties into children. And this also crosses over into 0:12:52.600 --> 0:12:55.679 concerns that are raised elsewhere about the future of the family, 0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:57.760 and we talked about that in the previous episode. How 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:00.360 a lot of these concerns about like the future of 0:13:00.360 --> 0:13:03.720 the family haven't really panned out, like, you know, the 0:13:03.760 --> 0:13:06.040 idea that well, the people will just be raised in 0:13:06.080 --> 0:13:09.400 communes and so forth. Now I feel like there are 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:12.920 sort of three things going into modern considerations of the 0:13:13.040 --> 0:13:17.240 birth technology thing though, because on one hand, as we discussed, 0:13:17.240 --> 0:13:20.000 perhaps the alarm was raised early enough and we have 0:13:20.120 --> 0:13:23.839 been largely more careful in this area of technological advancement. 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:26.680 But I think we also might consider that we're just 0:13:26.760 --> 0:13:30.559 not yet at the point of real crisis with birth technologies, 0:13:30.600 --> 0:13:33.120 at least not at scale. And also, you know, the 0:13:33.120 --> 0:13:36.440 tofflers might not be fully recognizing the overall benefits of 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:39.440 birth technologies, and that we might be less culturally open 0:13:39.480 --> 0:13:42.040 to drastic changes in the basic family unit. After all, 0:13:42.520 --> 0:13:45.920 I don't know, but I do know people, real people 0:13:45.960 --> 0:13:48.319 in the world who have benefited from strategies you might 0:13:48.360 --> 0:13:52.400 call birth technologies. And I wouldn't say it feels it 0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:55.560 didn't feel super future shocky to me. It just feels like, well, 0:13:55.920 --> 0:13:58.920 there are perhaps some extra options available today, and people 0:13:58.920 --> 0:14:00.679 take advantage of those options if they can. 0:14:01.360 --> 0:14:03.520 Yes, And you could also argue that the fact that 0:14:03.559 --> 0:14:08.439 we're not currently surrounded by human clones could be an 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:11.680 indication that, like the Tofflers suggest, in their sort of 0:14:11.720 --> 0:14:16.320 solutions section of the book. It could be indicative of 0:14:16.360 --> 0:14:20.520 the fact that, you know, scient the bodies governing scientific 0:14:20.560 --> 0:14:25.440 research saw this change coming and were able to essentially 0:14:25.960 --> 0:14:29.200 get enough thought and discussion out there early enough that 0:14:30.640 --> 0:14:33.960 there hasn't been much temptation for scientists to experiment with 0:14:34.040 --> 0:14:35.840 human cloning, at least not in the open. 0:14:36.400 --> 0:14:36.600 Yeah. 0:14:36.920 --> 0:14:42.160 Never underestimate humanity's power to fear change as well as 0:14:42.200 --> 0:14:43.920 a void doing anything with it. 0:14:44.320 --> 0:14:46.240 But unfortunately, to come back on the other side, I 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:50.920 think a lot of times seeing a potentially dangerous or 0:14:50.960 --> 0:14:53.760 disruptive change coming is not enough if there are people 0:14:53.880 --> 0:14:56.760 who have powerful individual incentives to pursue it. 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:57.200 Anyway. 0:14:57.840 --> 0:15:00.480 Yeah, for the record, I think clone baby They're fine. 0:15:00.680 --> 0:15:04.400 I'm pro clone baby babies. Now. 0:15:04.480 --> 0:15:07.080 One thing we got into at length in part two 0:15:07.680 --> 0:15:10.880 was a paper that tried to use empirical research from 0:15:10.880 --> 0:15:14.280 the last fifty years to assess the general predictions that 0:15:14.760 --> 0:15:19.240 the Toffler's made about how we will use time. 0:15:19.040 --> 0:15:19.640 In the future. 0:15:19.680 --> 0:15:23.880 So this primarily concerns their prediction that the future would 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:27.280 be characterized by greater and greater transience in life, a 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:30.960 sort of general shortening of the length of episodes both 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:36.000 large and small, and a shortening of commitments throughout life. 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:39.440 The paper tried to compare these predictions to actual time 0:15:39.520 --> 0:15:43.160 use studies and concluded that for the parts we could check, 0:15:43.280 --> 0:15:46.320 the Toffler's predictions about time use were actually pretty good. 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:51.200 Like we have seen time use become more fragmented, which 0:15:51.240 --> 0:15:54.920 you could characterize as as having more transience to it, 0:15:55.440 --> 0:15:59.000 more fragmented, more irregular, and more overlapped, and people do 0:16:00.320 --> 0:16:04.560 feeling increasingly stressed and hurried about time, even in cases 0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:09.120 where they actually objectively have more of it. However, there 0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:11.560 were also some predictions they made about time use that 0:16:11.720 --> 0:16:15.440 didn't really pan out, such as they sort of implied 0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:19.480 that people would end up devaluing home life and spending 0:16:19.480 --> 0:16:22.240 more time outside the home, coming and going a lot. 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:26.680 In fact, the research has shown the opposite. People in 0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:30.640 high technology cultures seem to be valuing home life more 0:16:30.680 --> 0:16:34.160 and more and spending more time inside the home. Though 0:16:34.240 --> 0:16:37.480 it strikes me that this could possibly be interpreted as 0:16:37.520 --> 0:16:41.440 an effect of changing technology and to some extent future shock. 0:16:42.160 --> 0:16:45.480 So like the internet and media technology make it easier 0:16:45.560 --> 0:16:49.680 to stay home without being bored, and it's possible that 0:16:49.760 --> 0:16:52.360 like anxiety which may or may not be related to 0:16:52.400 --> 0:17:05.840 future shock increasingly makes people hesitant to go out. So 0:17:05.880 --> 0:17:09.320 we've already talked a lot about how the Tofflers described 0:17:09.400 --> 0:17:14.320 future shock, why they argued it was likely to become 0:17:14.359 --> 0:17:17.919 an increasing feature of human life. But they also spend 0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:20.920 a significant amount of time in their book talking about 0:17:20.960 --> 0:17:24.520 our reaction to it, like what could we do about 0:17:24.680 --> 0:17:28.040 future shock to help alleviate and even prevent it? 0:17:29.119 --> 0:17:32.439 Yeah, and they also lay out several different what they 0:17:32.480 --> 0:17:36.560 call maladaptive coping strategies that can emerge so ways that 0:17:36.720 --> 0:17:42.720 will sort of deal with future shock on our own terms, 0:17:42.760 --> 0:17:45.480 without perhaps even realizing that future shock is going on. 0:17:46.440 --> 0:17:50.600 And I found these categories rather insightful. You know, I 0:17:50.640 --> 0:17:54.280 have some caveats to add, but I want to go 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:57.200 through these because I think there's some interesting ideas here. 0:17:58.000 --> 0:18:02.560 So the first category of maladaptive coping strategies for future 0:18:02.600 --> 0:18:05.439 shock that they outline is that of the denier. The 0:18:05.520 --> 0:18:09.520 denier blocks out unwanted reality and clings to the idea 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:14.679 that any change is just superficial quote. He finds comfort 0:18:14.760 --> 0:18:18.439 in such cliches as young people were always rebellious, or 0:18:18.800 --> 0:18:21.040 there's nothing new on the face of the earth, or 0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:24.200 the more things change, the more they stay the same. 0:18:24.800 --> 0:18:28.040 This is funny because I did not expect when they 0:18:28.080 --> 0:18:30.800 said that there are deniers this is what they were 0:18:30.800 --> 0:18:33.040 going to mean by it. But I do see. So 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:36.280 they're saying, like denier in the sense of denying that 0:18:36.359 --> 0:18:39.360 anything is really different this time, when they're saying no, no, 0:18:39.400 --> 0:18:43.720 it objectively is actually different this time. The technological regime 0:18:43.720 --> 0:18:47.719 we're living in now is different. It is actually happening faster. 0:18:48.240 --> 0:18:50.840 And so the denier here is saying, you know, it's 0:18:50.840 --> 0:18:51.919 always been like this. 0:18:52.480 --> 0:18:57.000 Yeah, And the toddlers, the denier essentially puts off change 0:18:57.320 --> 0:19:00.840 until change is forced upon them in just a one single, 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:05.960 massive life catastrophe. So the preferable alternative would be, of course, 0:19:06.000 --> 0:19:08.760 to take on a series of manageable problems and solve 0:19:08.800 --> 0:19:12.600 those instead of dealing with one gigantic problem at the end. 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:15.480 And I think it's an interesting way of looking at things, 0:19:15.480 --> 0:19:17.480 because I mean, certainly you don't need a future shock 0:19:17.560 --> 0:19:21.879 scenario to see, you know, versions of this. You know, 0:19:21.920 --> 0:19:25.080 there are all sorts of realities in life that you 0:19:25.280 --> 0:19:29.200 that are conquerable if you deal with them as small battles, 0:19:29.240 --> 0:19:32.919 as opposed to one enormous world ending battle. 0:19:33.440 --> 0:19:37.600 I think the denier attitude can be attractive to a 0:19:37.640 --> 0:19:41.040 lot of people because it sounds very care free, you know. 0:19:41.760 --> 0:19:45.960 It's actually it communicates a sense of confidence to say, like, ah, you. 0:19:45.880 --> 0:19:48.679 Know, I wouldn't worry about it. Things have always. 0:19:48.440 --> 0:19:52.200 Been like this, which that can be an assuring thing 0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:56.480 to hear, especially in the face of like actual, actual alarmism, 0:19:56.760 --> 0:19:59.200 when people are like getting freaked out about something that's 0:19:59.240 --> 0:20:01.359 not actually a prop problem, which happens all the time. 0:20:02.240 --> 0:20:04.480 Yeah, I feel like with the denier there's sort of 0:20:04.680 --> 0:20:07.080 two I have sort of two feelings about. On one hand, 0:20:07.600 --> 0:20:09.080 I feel like you do kind of have to block 0:20:09.080 --> 0:20:13.680 it all out sometimes, like you can't constantly be waging 0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:17.080 battles against change and dealing with change. Sometimes you just 0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:20.080 got to, like, you know, get to work and do 0:20:20.160 --> 0:20:24.760 whatever you do. And as far as these generalities, you know, 0:20:25.280 --> 0:20:27.120 the more things change, the more they stay the same, 0:20:27.280 --> 0:20:29.440 or the young people are always rebellious and so forth. 0:20:29.440 --> 0:20:32.520 They are a million of these. And on one hand, 0:20:32.880 --> 0:20:35.760 reading this, I kept thinking, well, some of these are 0:20:35.800 --> 0:20:37.880 kind of true, right, I Mean, the reason we say 0:20:37.920 --> 0:20:40.320 them is that there is at least some truth to them. 0:20:40.359 --> 0:20:42.840 So I'm not sure we should just commpletely throw those 0:20:42.880 --> 0:20:45.439 out or see those as just red flags. But on 0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:47.080 the other hand, I do see where they're coming from, 0:20:47.080 --> 0:20:51.199 Like you could just if you need a generality to 0:20:51.280 --> 0:20:53.840 grab onto to keep from having to deal with change, 0:20:53.880 --> 0:20:54.760 they are available. 0:20:55.280 --> 0:20:57.920 Yeah, I mean, I guess another way of thinking about 0:20:57.960 --> 0:21:01.440 it is that when you are concent coittering whether things 0:21:01.480 --> 0:21:04.240 are really different today or whether a change is a 0:21:04.320 --> 0:21:07.600 change is really happening in the world, there are, to 0:21:07.720 --> 0:21:10.159 use statistics terms, there are type one and type two 0:21:10.320 --> 0:21:13.879 errors happening all the time around us. There are people 0:21:13.960 --> 0:21:17.040 saying this is totally different, it's never been like this before, 0:21:17.160 --> 0:21:19.840 when when it has it's you know, it's not different. 0:21:20.160 --> 0:21:22.879 And there are people who are ignoring things that are 0:21:22.960 --> 0:21:25.760 totally different now be saying like, ah, don't worry about it, 0:21:25.520 --> 0:21:28.240 it's always been like this, when it actually is something 0:21:28.520 --> 0:21:29.320 totally different. 0:21:29.640 --> 0:21:31.600 And I guess I guess we should also acknowledge that, Yeah, 0:21:31.600 --> 0:21:33.480 things can also be both, right, I mean, you can 0:21:33.520 --> 0:21:36.439 have something happening in a given culture that matches up 0:21:36.480 --> 0:21:41.120 with expected trends, but to channel into the future shock 0:21:41.160 --> 0:21:43.520 a little bit like if things are happening and it 0:21:43.560 --> 0:21:47.960 advanced great technologically, then you're dealing with a slightly different scenario. 0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:50.600 Also, if you're talking about future shock, you're talking about 0:21:50.640 --> 0:21:54.520 psychological effects on the person, in which case an error 0:21:54.560 --> 0:21:58.480 of the alarmist sort would still have negative psychological effects 0:21:58.520 --> 0:22:00.919 on you because you would still be perceived does a change. 0:22:01.480 --> 0:22:04.880 So you know, here's a false change that is freaking 0:22:04.920 --> 0:22:07.480 you out alongside all of the real changes. 0:22:08.280 --> 0:22:10.240 Yeah, all right. 0:22:10.320 --> 0:22:12.840 Now, The next example that they give of a maladaptive 0:22:12.920 --> 0:22:16.120 coping strategy is that of the specialist. So the specialist 0:22:16.160 --> 0:22:20.600 doesn't block out everything. The specialist specializes in one area 0:22:20.640 --> 0:22:23.400 of the changing world and keeps pace with that, which 0:22:23.440 --> 0:22:26.360 creates the feeling that they're keeping pace with the larger 0:22:26.800 --> 0:22:30.040 pace of change in the world. Quote, he narrows the 0:22:30.080 --> 0:22:33.360 slit through which he sees the world, so it can 0:22:33.359 --> 0:22:37.119 be superficially successful as a coping mechanism for a while. 0:22:37.560 --> 0:22:40.240 But this too, they right, will eventually catch up with 0:22:40.320 --> 0:22:41.040 the specialist. 0:22:41.400 --> 0:22:43.359 This is the person who thinks that they're the master 0:22:43.480 --> 0:22:47.280