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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast, the number one show

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Speaker 1: for the invested sports fan. All Right, here we go.

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Speaker 1: It's the most wonderful time. What's up the generate nation?

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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast. This is the College

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Speaker 1: Football Bowl Betting Preview, Part three. That means we have

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Speaker 1: college football Playoffs semi finals.

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Speaker 2: If you hate ball games, go listen to NPR.

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Speaker 1: I'm stucky with me, as always is Colin Wilson. First

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Speaker 1: of all, Merry Christmas. How was your holiday? I should

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Speaker 1: start off cordially.

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Speaker 2: I ran to braved about how happy I was the

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Speaker 2: bullseason was back on Christmas Eve night, you know, because

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Speaker 2: we were without that for a couple of years. And

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Speaker 2: then felt real great about the closing line value that

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Speaker 2: I got on BYU, only to have some of the wackiest,

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Speaker 2: craziest MAC referee Tuesday night. No hil on cam, no vertical,

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Speaker 2: the field goal cam, like I don't know that I've

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Speaker 2: never seen the island be more island than what we

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Speaker 2: saw on Christmas Eve. Full game fever catch it yeah, they.

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Speaker 1: Took away would look like a made field goal, would

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Speaker 1: look like a touchdown. And then on third and two,

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Speaker 1: I felt like I was watching the Browns. I don't

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Speaker 1: know what that call was. Number one, you're just running

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Speaker 1: it right down their throat the whole game. Number two,

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Speaker 1: they don't have any timeouts. And number three, if you

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Speaker 1: are going to throw it, don't do whatever. That was

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Speaker 1: That play call brutal. But we're going to get into Friday.

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Speaker 1: On the last podcast, we covered the Friday Afternoon Balls.

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Speaker 1: We'll touch on any updated thoughts at the end on those.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna go through the Friday Night Balls. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: go through the Saturday Bowls, then we'll get to the

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Speaker 1: College wall playoffs, Semis. We'll close out here Underdog money

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Speaker 1: Line Parlay, and then the two bowls on Monday, and

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Speaker 1: then for those that are new or forgot, we'll have

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Speaker 1: an episode that comes out on Monday as usual, and

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Speaker 1: that episode will be loaded because we have like ten

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Speaker 1: to eleven twelve bowls to cover between you know, Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: New Year's Eve, New Year's Day, and then well a

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Speaker 1: podcast again that comes out on Friday. That one will

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Speaker 1: be a lot shorter. There's three bowls over the weekend,

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Speaker 1: and we'll also talk FCS National Championship, which was on

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Speaker 1: January eleventh, and then after that it's just the national

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Speaker 1: championship after that. So before we get into that, though,

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Speaker 1: you know, we've had I don't know fifteen seven, six,

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Speaker 1: seventeen eighteen bowls so far. Somewhere in that neighborhood. I

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Speaker 1: think I am dead even so far. And what sums

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Speaker 1: up my bowl season so far is I had FAU

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Speaker 1: plus three, closed plus nine, they won by I don't

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Speaker 1: know forty, and then I had FIU plus three, they

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Speaker 1: closed minus one and a half. That game makes me

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Speaker 1: the I'm so mad at that game, like the third

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Speaker 1: and tens at Arkansas State in the first set, then

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Speaker 1: a twenty six yard miss field goal because had second

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Speaker 1: half too that caused me the second half. But I

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Speaker 1: also got lucky in second half app State uab under

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Speaker 1: a scoreless fourth quarter. But I'm about it even right now.

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Speaker 1: I can't can play too much. Central Michigan was an

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Speaker 1: awful play. Kent stay, They're my boys. I'm so mad

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Speaker 1: we can't bet them anymore. How about you want to

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Speaker 1: met you just a game or two so.

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Speaker 2: Far, I want to say, you know that trust the

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Speaker 2: power rating, the Action Network power ratings have been on

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Speaker 2: the side of the team that has won. You know,

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Speaker 2: when you look at Central Florida. It had We had

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Speaker 2: the Action Network power rating at minus nineteen for that game,

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Speaker 2: and I know that it took some wackiness and lots

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Speaker 2: of havoc and some defensive scores that happened, but Marshall

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Speaker 2: was never covering in that game and a point spread

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Speaker 2: that got down to fourteen and a half and eventually,

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Speaker 2: you know, came back up a little bit. But you know,

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Speaker 2: we had nineteen on that game. We had twelve and

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Speaker 2: a half on app State. Should have listened to myself

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Speaker 2: instead of that game bobbling around seventeen sixteen and a

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Speaker 2: half game landed straight on fourteen. Trust the power rating,

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Speaker 2: use that as a basis, and you know, get into matchups.

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Speaker 2: Don't listen so much with the noise. With the motivational

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Speaker 2: We're going to find out a lot about motivational spots,

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Speaker 2: but you know, start with the power rating first and

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Speaker 2: that I mean, just go from there and look at matchups.

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Speaker 1: All right, Well, hasn't been a fast start to both season.

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Speaker 1: Just like last year. I think we're pretty similar start

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Speaker 1: to where we were last year. So it's time to

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Speaker 1: close strong starting with Friday. Like I said, we'll touch

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Speaker 1: on any updates we have on UNC Temple, Wake Forest,

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Speaker 1: Michigan State later in the podcast. As we did cover

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Speaker 1: in the last episodes, Let's start with Oklahoma State Texas

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Speaker 1: A and M Friday six forty five Eastern on ESPN

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Speaker 1: in Houston. Texas A and M is a six and

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Speaker 1: a half point favorite over under fifty three and a

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Speaker 1: half fifty four to fifty three and a half depending

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Speaker 1: on where you look. Of note in this game is

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Speaker 1: it looks like Spencer Sanders is going to go for

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. Hubbard is also going to go. And one

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Speaker 1: of the things that you know and Hubbard is sixty

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Speaker 1: four yards away from two thousand. He's the guy to

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Speaker 1: watch in this game, especially because Texas A and M's

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Speaker 1: star defensive tackle is out and he sat out because

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Speaker 1: in preparation of the NFL Draft Justin Medabuque and Jaden

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Speaker 1: Peavey is a fine backup. But the text sting of

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Speaker 1: defensive line is solid overall. But that's they're gonna miss

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Speaker 1: him up front. When I look at this game, I

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Speaker 1: know that you like the under and that's where I'm

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Speaker 1: looking as well. What I you know, one of the

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Speaker 1: things when I first look, as I say, okay, I mean,

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Speaker 1: the Oklahoma State does not give up a lot of

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Speaker 1: explosive passing plays, right, you know, it's I think that

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Speaker 1: this matchup sets up well for them to contain this

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Speaker 1: text A and M offense, which has no explosiveness whatsoever. Right,

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Speaker 1: if you look at this Texas A and M offense,

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Speaker 1: there's no exposedness. I think that they might be able to,

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Speaker 1: you know, efficiently move the ball a little bit up

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Speaker 1: and down the field. But it's just I don't see

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Speaker 1: that there's not gonna be a lot of big plays

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Speaker 1: in this game. I also think Oklahoma State without Tayland Wallace,

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Speaker 1: you know, Texas A and M's defensive explosive. This number

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Speaker 1: numbers aren't great against the past, but you have to

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Speaker 1: remember they played TUA and Trevor Lawrence. And I mean

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Speaker 1: if you just look at their schedule and they played

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Speaker 1: LSU three number one. So yeah, so it's crazy. So

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Speaker 1: I think without Tylan Wallace, there's secondaries battle test that

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Speaker 1: I like some of their there are guys in that secondary.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think they're going to let up a

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Speaker 1: lot deep and I think it's going to be a

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Speaker 1: lot of Hubbard, you know, maybe standards a little bit

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Speaker 1: with his legs. So I think this is just you know,

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Speaker 1: both of these teams efficiently moving the ball a little

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Speaker 1: bit clock running some punts. You have some two good punters,

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Speaker 1: you have two good special teams units, and an Oklahoma

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Speaker 1: State they're horrible in the red zone all year. That's

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Speaker 1: where Texas A and M I think will really clamp down.

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Speaker 1: Remember the Texas anum's schedule, They've had a gauntlet of

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Speaker 1: a schedule. But I think the line is ultimately about right.

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Speaker 1: But I agree with you on the under here. Remember

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Speaker 1: Texas ANAM is a stale What are you seeing here?

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Speaker 2: Well, first off, the Texas Texas A and M and

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Speaker 2: Oklahoma State. If you're interested in twenty twenty college football,

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Speaker 2: this is the bowl game you want to watch. These

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Speaker 2: rosters return an immense amount of talent, you know, too

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Speaker 2: deep on both sides of the ball, and especially when

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Speaker 2: you look at Oklahoma State. The decision hasn't been made

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Speaker 2: yet by a Toobe Hubbard if he's going to return

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Speaker 2: next year. He's still contemplating his decision. He'll make it

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Speaker 2: after the bowl game. But if he returns, I mean

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Speaker 2: these are going to be that This game is going

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Speaker 2: to serve as a springboard possibly for a team to

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Speaker 2: be heavily overrated going into next season. I mean that's enough.

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Speaker 2: I'll say about twenty twenty because Texas A and M

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Speaker 2: schedule really compared to what it went through this year,

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Speaker 2: next year is just cake. So we'll see how they

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Speaker 2: look in this game. But overall, you're right, their roster

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Speaker 2: has got to get faster. They're non an explosive group

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Speaker 2: whatsoever through the air or on the ground. And you know,

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Speaker 2: as far as Oklahoma State on the offensive side, you're right.

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Speaker 2: Spencer Sanders has returned to practice. Gundy mentioned that senior

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Speaker 2: quarterback Drew Brown has earned the right to play snaps

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Speaker 2: in the Texas Bowl with his play down the stretch. Now,

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Speaker 2: the question is is how much of Sanders are we

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Speaker 2: going to see off the thumb injury. How much are

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Speaker 2: we going to see and Drew Brown. He's a senior,

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Speaker 2: so we won't see him at Oklahoma State again. You

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Speaker 2: have to wonder if Gundy is you know, protect the

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Speaker 2: goods for the future or let him loose and have

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Speaker 2: him have this game, you know, setting up next year.

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Speaker 2: I don't think we need any more demonstrations about how

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Speaker 2: good Spencer Sanders is I don't think I don't think

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Speaker 2: Gundy needs to see it anymore. The kid after the

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Speaker 2: bye week this year just went completely for the Pokes

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Speaker 2: and was having you know, fantastic reads, no more interceptions.

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Speaker 2: So we'll see how much Drew Brown plays compared to

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Speaker 2: Spencer Sanders.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 2: So I do like the under in this game, and

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Speaker 2: really it's because of the pace of play. Texas A

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Speaker 2: and M is one hundred and twelfth and seconds per play.

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Speaker 2: The total went under in Oklahoma State's final three games

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Speaker 2: in which Drew Brown was the quarterback against Kansas West, Virginia, Oklahoma,

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Speaker 2: Texas A and M never went over in any game

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Speaker 2: outside of Kyle Field. I think this is going to

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Speaker 2: be slow paced. It's going to be on the ground.

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Speaker 2: There's gonna be a lot of Hubbard, no explosiveness whatsoever.

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Speaker 1: Give me the under here, completely agree with you. I'll

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Speaker 1: sprinkle some on the first half under and some in

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Speaker 1: the game. You know, if there's some flukes in the

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Speaker 1: first half, I might come back on the under in

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Speaker 1: the second half. And like I said, one of the

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Speaker 1: other things to keep in mind is at the big twelve,

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Speaker 1: like Hupboard averaged something that silly six point four yards

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Speaker 1: per carry and the Texas A and M defense, you know,

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Speaker 1: their secondary had some subpark numbers, but look at the

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Speaker 1: offensive they played, and then look at some of the

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Speaker 1: defenses that Oklahoma State played. So I I don't think

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Speaker 1: it's going to be as easy for Hubbard and the

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Speaker 1: Oklahoma State offense as it may have been throughout the season.

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Speaker 1: And I think Texas A and M their second is

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Speaker 1: going to look a lot better than you know when

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Speaker 1: you're facing you know, these number one teams in the country,

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Speaker 1: and you're facing now a team that doesn't have the

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Speaker 1: top receiver and it's really only explosive threat. So I

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Speaker 1: agree with you there on the under Let's move on

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Speaker 1: to the next game. Let's we can make this an

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Speaker 1: argument because I think I'm looking at the other side.

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Speaker 1: I haven't hit it yet, but USC Iowa I was

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Speaker 1: sitting at too two and a half point favorite over

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Speaker 1: under fifty two ish. This game is out in Qualcomm

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Speaker 1: Stadium in San Diego, no weather as you would expect

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Speaker 1: out in San Diego to no Chargers either, Yeah, no

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Speaker 1: Chargers to take account of. But you know, when I

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Speaker 1: look at this game, first of all, the first thing

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Speaker 1: I look at is it's Clay Hilton. So this is

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Speaker 1: what always gives me pause. Well, Clay Helton is a dog,

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Speaker 1: and he's away from home. He's nine to twenty one

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Speaker 1: and two against the spread on the road or on

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Speaker 1: a neutral just overall as a dog away from from home,

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Speaker 1: two and eleven against the spread. That includes zero to

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Speaker 1: three in bowls. All three of those were against Big

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Speaker 1: ten opponents the past three years. I also mentioned these

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Speaker 1: are two solid special teams units with two really solid kickers.

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Speaker 1: Something to throw out here, But here's let me argue

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Speaker 1: for why I think USC might be a little undervalued,

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Speaker 1: and it has to do with you know, their offense

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Speaker 1: obviously is really good.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: They have maybe outside of Alabama, the best receiving corps

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Speaker 1: in the country. Slovas at quarterback, who's a potential you know,

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Speaker 1: Heisman next year, who's going to put up numbers. But

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Speaker 1: their offense, you know, they run the air rad Graham

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Speaker 1: Harrel's a array. It's really efficient and they can move

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Speaker 1: the ball through the air. If had some injuries at back,

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Speaker 1: but what I'm worried about is the injuries on the

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Speaker 1: defensive side. Right, So you have and their secondary has

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Speaker 1: been pretty good, but their front seven has been really bad,

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Speaker 1: like really bad. And the concern here is if you

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Speaker 1: look at a lot of the underlying metrics and the

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Speaker 1: advanced metrics, I should say, is that they're going to

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Speaker 1: just get pushed around by a physical eye with team.

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Speaker 1: You know, if you look at a lot of like

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Speaker 1: the line yards and stuff for eight and some of

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Speaker 1: their numbers against the run. But what gives me a

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Speaker 1: little bit of pause is you had guys like you know,

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Speaker 1: Hufong gets Safety, Drake Jackson, Christian Rector, three of their

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Speaker 1: best defenders who missed a lot of time this year,

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Speaker 1: and they've played They only have two seniors on this defense,

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Speaker 1: so they played a ton of sophomores and freshmen just anyway.

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Speaker 1: But also that we're filling in for those guys. They're

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Speaker 1: now as healthy as they've been all year. Those freshmen sophomores,

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Speaker 1: you know, had to have improved from some of that

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Speaker 1: playing time. Maybe the time off also helps them catch up.

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Speaker 1: They're healthy now on defense, so I'm thinking that some

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Speaker 1: of their defensive numbers, they're not as bad as some

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Speaker 1: of their defensive numbers for the year state, So you know,

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Speaker 1: and one of the things they really did struggle with

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Speaker 1: is quarterbacks, mobile quarterbacks off the edge. That's not Nate Stanley,

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Speaker 1: so at least they can remove that aspect of it.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think that there's a ton of value

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Speaker 1: with you know, USC. I don't think i'd play them now,

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Speaker 1: but if this creeps up, I'm thinking of playing USC

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Speaker 1: plus three since I make it closer to a pit.

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Speaker 1: You're worried about some USC motivation, obviously Helton and some

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Speaker 1: other things. So what do you see here?

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Speaker 2: Laying points with Iowa can be tricky considering, you know,

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Speaker 2: they're they're kind of offensively in neptid times, and you're right,

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Speaker 2: you can't trust these advanced stats that we have on

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Speaker 2: USC's defense because they've been hurt most of the year.

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Speaker 2: So just sit there and throw out and say that

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Speaker 2: they're bad at this and bad at that. I mean,

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Speaker 2: they haven't had a full roster on defense most of

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Speaker 2: the season, so it's not really a good handicap there.

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Speaker 2: But I think the thing that I cannot get off

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Speaker 2: of is USC and the air raid attack, And specifically,

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Speaker 2: let's look at how Iowa has handled the air raid attack.

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Speaker 2: In twenty seventeen, North Texas came in, you know, with

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Speaker 2: sethral Trail a young Mason Fine and Farnce you know

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Speaker 2: said after the game, he said, listen, they're running air

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Speaker 2: raid system. It's similar to what Matt Campbell does at

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Speaker 2: Iowa State post route go routes, single back, no back,

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Speaker 2: and you know, but you know, they were able to

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Speaker 2: shut them down. They beat him thirty one to fourteen.

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Speaker 2: It's worth mentioning that Iowa State still is not in

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Speaker 2: beat in Iowa. Every game has been extremely close, but

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Speaker 2: Iowa State and whatever air raid version they're running has

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Speaker 2: not been able to be Iowa so forens has not

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Speaker 2: had any issues at all defending the air raid. Iowas

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Speaker 2: twenty seventh and defensive passing success rate that showed against

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Speaker 2: Minnesota and a win against them earlier this year. Deeper

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Speaker 2: look at the numbers, Iowa's six against pass explosiveness, so

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Speaker 2: they really can keep everything in front of him. They

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Speaker 2: have a sack rate of nineteenth. And the biggest matchup

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Speaker 2: if you want to look at NFL talent edge rusher

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Speaker 2: aj F Panessa versus you know, you know, offensive tackle

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Speaker 2: Austin Jackson for USC that's going to be an NFL

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Speaker 2: that's going to be a Sunday matchup. To keep your

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Speaker 2: eyes on. I'm not fading USC because of Clay Helton

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Speaker 2: and his you know, he hasn't been able to cover

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Speaker 2: bulls or he just isn't prepared, and there's a ton

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Speaker 2: of penalties with USC all the time. The thing that

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Speaker 2: I keep coming back to is air raid offenses and bulls.

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Speaker 2: I mean, everybody comes back and says, well, Leach is

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Speaker 2: terrible in bulls. But if you listen to Leech talk

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Speaker 2: about the air raid for over a decade, he hates

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Speaker 2: having time off. He hates having bye weeks. He hates

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Speaker 2: having time off in between bowls because it takes his

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Speaker 2: quarterback and his wide receivers out of sync. They have

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Speaker 2: to be in sync for the air raid to work.

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Speaker 2: And then I just got blasted by Florida Atlantic because

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Speaker 2: s you and Shane Michelle could not complete a pass.

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Speaker 2: He was all over the place. He's behind the receivers,

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Speaker 2: over the receivers. I start thinking about other air raids

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Speaker 2: and Bowl games before outside of Mike Leach, and they've

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Speaker 2: had issues like Kevin someone running the air raid at

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Speaker 2: Texas A and m lost his last two bowls. There

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Speaker 2: are other air raid attacks that I can think of.

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Speaker 2: You know, I know it's gonna be in our full

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Speaker 2: ride up on the Action Network. But air raids with

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Speaker 2: time off have really been slow. You know, if the

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Speaker 2: connection is not there between the quarterback and the wide receivers,

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Speaker 2: that team generally does not win, and it may take

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Speaker 2: a couple of quarters to get there. So because I

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Speaker 2: was so good in past defense, and because I don't

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Speaker 2: trust air raids with time off, I'm definitely backing Iowa

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Speaker 2: on the money line. It's two two and a half.

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Speaker 2: I can see that it's trending up. So I mean,

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Speaker 2: I wouldn't blame anyone for taking USC at a field

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Speaker 2: goal or better, you know, laying points with Iowa's you know,

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Speaker 2: like I said, tough to do, but really this is

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Speaker 2: all about for Rents has been excellent against air raids,

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Speaker 2: and air raids with time off have not been a

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Speaker 2: good bet.

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Speaker 1: You make a good point. So, I mean, they're probably

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Speaker 1: gonna run a lot of their four two five and

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Speaker 1: there's some similarities to what they do and what you

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Speaker 1: know Washington against the ARA, and they're going to drop

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys back. Keep everything in front of them,

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Speaker 1: you know, make USC go to like of the field out,

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Speaker 1: making a mistake, which I think the right way to

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Speaker 1: approach an air ra You know, you can't really sit

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Speaker 1: there and trying to play man. You know, Utah found

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Speaker 1: that out. They find that out every year against Washington

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Speaker 1: State besides this year, but they did against USC. So

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Speaker 1: I think that their scheme does fit. And that's one

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Speaker 1: of the reasons why, you know, I don't necessarily love

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Speaker 1: this over So I look at it and I say,

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Speaker 1: IOWA should be able to move the ball on the ground.

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Speaker 1: I think that they can complete some short passes. Then

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Speaker 1: I say, USC, she should be able to move the

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Speaker 1: ball through the air a little bit. But then I

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Speaker 1: look and I say, all right, the USC defense is

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Speaker 1: probably a little better than their numbers indicate. Iowa's defense,

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Speaker 1: you know, has a scheme that can fit against you know,

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Speaker 1: match up at least against this USC offense. And then

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Speaker 1: I go into Kirk Frent's super conservative play caller, right,

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Speaker 1: I mean, he just is as conservative as it gets.

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Speaker 1: They also play really slow. There are one hundred and

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Speaker 1: eighth and seconds per play. They also can't finish drives.

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Speaker 1: They're one hundred and ninth to finish drives on offense

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Speaker 1: and on the other side of the field. They excel

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Speaker 1: at stopping teams once they get down near the red zone.

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Speaker 1: Their second in finishing drives on defense Iowa. So Iowa

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Speaker 1: plays really slow, they call really conservative game. They can't

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Speaker 1: finish drives, and they prevent you from finishing drives, and

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Speaker 1: then you have potential RUSS for the air raid. So

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Speaker 1: all those factors, I can't really back the over here,

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Speaker 1: even though you know in a vacuum I might play

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Speaker 1: it based just on the number.

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Speaker 2: I completely agree with you on the under. And the

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Speaker 2: thing is is I have as projected at fifty five,

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Speaker 2: but do you kind of throw that out when you

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Speaker 2: have an air raid versus a great pass defense like Iowa.

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Speaker 2: So I think the number is short to take an

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Speaker 2: under anyways, but I agree with you that I think

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Speaker 2: there may be a lacking of points here here to

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Speaker 2: start off.

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Speaker 1: And it's also worth mentioning. Look, Iowa had three losses

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Speaker 1: this year by a combined thirteen points, all against top

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Speaker 1: fifteen teams Wisconsin, Penn State, Michigan. Two of us He's

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Speaker 1: losses game by three points at Notre Dame and at BYU.

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Speaker 1: All right, so let's move on to our third bowl

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Speaker 1: on Friday night and speaking of air Raid and Leach

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Speaker 1: and time off I can throw. We have Air Force

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Speaker 1: Washington State. This game starts at ten to fifteen Eastern

380
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Speaker 1: on ESPN, which means all eyes will be on this game.

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Speaker 1: Air Force is sitting at a two and a half

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Speaker 1: point favored over under sixty eight and a half I

383
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Speaker 1: will you know this is in Phoenix, by the way,

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Speaker 1: there's no weather to worry about. Let me just throw

385
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Speaker 1: out some of the Leech numbers that you mentioned with

386
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Speaker 1: the air RAI. You know, Leach is eighty two seventy

387
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Speaker 1: three and two overall against the spread in his career.

388
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Speaker 1: That's about fifty three percent. You know, nothing crazy, but okay,

389
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Speaker 1: more than eight days in between games eight and sixteen

390
00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:37,359
Speaker 1: against the spread, failing to cover by almost five points

391
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Speaker 1: per game. Eight or fewer days between games sixty eight,

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Speaker 1: fifty two and two. That's fifty six point seven percent

393
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Speaker 1: against the spread, covering by an average about two and

394
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Speaker 1: a half points per game. So you can see the

395
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Speaker 1: dichotomy there between those two situations. That meant, you know,

396
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Speaker 1: gets back to the rust factor with the air raid,

397
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Speaker 1: and you know it gets out of rhythm. You know,

398
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Speaker 1: it's one of the reasons why he's only two and

399
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Speaker 1: seven against the spread in Bowls, failing to cover by

400
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Speaker 1: over at time touchdown per game on average. And one

401
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Speaker 1: of those two wins was against Iowa State last year

402
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Speaker 1: and a game they had no business winning, no business covering.

403
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Speaker 1: The refs were horrendous and basically handed them that game

404
00:18:10,760 --> 00:18:12,720
Speaker 1: wasn't highest scoring and their offense didn't look great for

405
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Speaker 1: what it's worth. Yeah, So it's the most interesting thing

406
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Speaker 1: about this game, and I'll let you get into it

407
00:18:16,640 --> 00:18:18,960
Speaker 1: before I add some context. Is probably one of the

408
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Speaker 1: most interesting matchups because it's the team that runs the

409
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Speaker 1: ball set the second highest frequency of any team in

410
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Speaker 1: the country. That's air Force. They run an eighty five

411
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Speaker 1: point twenty five percent of the time. That's just behind Navy,

412
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Speaker 1: and then Washington State. They run in with less frequency

413
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Speaker 1: than any other team in the country. They passed on

414
00:18:35,320 --> 00:18:37,880
Speaker 1: seventy eight point eight five percent of their plays. That's

415
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Speaker 1: by far the Highes seventy over seventy percent. The next

416
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Speaker 1: size is Perdue it like sixty three sixty four percent.

417
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Speaker 1: So this is a complete contrast and styles. And the

418
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Speaker 1: interesting thing is, well, all Washington State does is pass it.

419
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Speaker 1: Air Force struggles to defend the pass. All air force

420
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Speaker 1: does is run it. Washington State really struggles to defend

421
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Speaker 1: the run. And I know you're probably going to get

422
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Speaker 1: into things like the Washington State stuff right in line.

423
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Speaker 1: I mean, they are horrendous. So what do you see here?

424
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Speaker 2: You couldn't find two polar opposites in offensive scheme, and

425
00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 2: you couldn't find two defenses that may be the least

426
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Speaker 2: prepared to tackle these offenses. It's it's fascinating from an

427
00:19:18,680 --> 00:19:21,639
Speaker 2: x's and o's and from a numbers perspective, you know,

428
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Speaker 2: Washington State they can't defend the triple option. Air Force

429
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Speaker 2: can't defend the pass. So you know, we'll start with

430
00:19:26,920 --> 00:19:29,280
Speaker 2: Washington State. Defensively, they're one hundred and twenty fifth in

431
00:19:29,359 --> 00:19:31,199
Speaker 2: line yards, one hundred and twenty seventh and stuff. Right,

432
00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,600
Speaker 2: that's not good against a triple option. And they've had

433
00:19:33,640 --> 00:19:36,080
Speaker 2: a much they've had a much easier strength of schedule,

434
00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:38,080
Speaker 2: you know, so air force is going to be able

435
00:19:38,080 --> 00:19:40,840
Speaker 2: to move the ball. But take in mind air Force

436
00:19:40,840 --> 00:19:43,080
Speaker 2: one hundred and twenty sixth in pace seconds per play.

437
00:19:43,359 --> 00:19:47,399
Speaker 2: Air force is slow. Air Force defensively eighty third, and

438
00:19:47,440 --> 00:19:50,440
Speaker 2: defensive passing success rate they're only one hundred and third

439
00:19:50,480 --> 00:19:53,879
Speaker 2: in Havoc. They're a ninety second and passes defense. They

440
00:19:53,960 --> 00:19:56,840
Speaker 2: don't knock passes down, they don't get in the backfield,

441
00:19:56,920 --> 00:19:59,560
Speaker 2: they don't cause a lot of disruption to a team's offense.

442
00:20:00,359 --> 00:20:02,280
Speaker 2: Is going to be able to throw the ball all day.

443
00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:05,040
Speaker 2: The total is really the number I took on the

444
00:20:05,080 --> 00:20:07,479
Speaker 2: Action app and that I bought. I took Wazoo as

445
00:20:07,480 --> 00:20:08,959
Speaker 2: a dog, and it's still a dog. I think it's

446
00:20:09,000 --> 00:20:11,040
Speaker 2: going to come down, though. If you guys have sports

447
00:20:11,080 --> 00:20:13,960
Speaker 2: Insights and you set some linewatcher great tool for any

448
00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,080
Speaker 2: gambler out there, it looks like the number is going

449
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:18,040
Speaker 2: to come down, and so if you like Washington State,

450
00:20:18,080 --> 00:20:19,560
Speaker 2: it'd be time to probably grab that beau as we

451
00:20:19,600 --> 00:20:22,000
Speaker 2: get closer to kick. But my Action Network power rating

452
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:23,840
Speaker 2: made it minus four and a half on the side

453
00:20:23,840 --> 00:20:26,360
Speaker 2: of Wazoo. So when I initially saw them as a dog,

454
00:20:26,440 --> 00:20:27,680
Speaker 2: I thought, well, I've got to take them. And I

455
00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:29,760
Speaker 2: just think that there's the narrative out there against Leech

456
00:20:29,800 --> 00:20:32,720
Speaker 2: in the ARAIG, which has legs. I don't think there's

457
00:20:32,960 --> 00:20:35,040
Speaker 2: any reason to dismiss that. But to have a swing

458
00:20:35,160 --> 00:20:37,120
Speaker 2: in six points for my power rating is a bit much.

459
00:20:37,240 --> 00:20:39,360
Speaker 2: Then I got got on the total, and I think

460
00:20:39,440 --> 00:20:41,399
Speaker 2: everybody in the world, and I'm looking at the Ticke

461
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 2: account and how much money's on the over. I don't

462
00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:45,320
Speaker 2: think there's a single underticket out there. I don't think

463
00:20:45,320 --> 00:20:47,200
Speaker 2: anybody believes that this thing is going to go under.

464
00:20:47,280 --> 00:20:49,280
Speaker 2: It started at sixty seven, it's up to sixty nine.

465
00:20:49,520 --> 00:20:51,080
Speaker 2: Not sure where it's going to stop. I think people

466
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:53,080
Speaker 2: like me are waiting for a seventy. I've already taken

467
00:20:53,119 --> 00:20:55,159
Speaker 2: a first half under. But you know, the pace is

468
00:20:55,160 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 2: slower than what you would think. These teams are first

469
00:20:57,640 --> 00:21:00,240
Speaker 2: and second in field goal efficiency, so there is going

470
00:21:00,280 --> 00:21:02,159
Speaker 2: to be points scored even when they get past the forty.

471
00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 2: You know, if they get in range of points there,

472
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:05,639
Speaker 2: you know there's gonna be points on the board. But

473
00:21:05,680 --> 00:21:06,920
Speaker 2: how many times are they going to settle for a

474
00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:09,000
Speaker 2: field goal if they can't punch it in? You know,

475
00:21:09,119 --> 00:21:11,480
Speaker 2: both teams are top twenty and finishing drives, but with

476
00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 2: the pace being so slow in the game, how often

477
00:21:14,040 --> 00:21:16,520
Speaker 2: are they going to get into to the scoring position

478
00:21:16,600 --> 00:21:18,639
Speaker 2: inside the red zone? And I think that's what's got

479
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:20,520
Speaker 2: me on the under, especially a first half under. I

480
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:22,960
Speaker 2: like the first half under more because it plays into

481
00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:25,040
Speaker 2: the I like to say narrati because it's actually true.

482
00:21:25,080 --> 00:21:27,800
Speaker 2: But air raid offenses have a hard time, you know,

483
00:21:28,040 --> 00:21:30,680
Speaker 2: getting in sync the first couple drives. So I like

484
00:21:30,760 --> 00:21:33,640
Speaker 2: the first half under more than anything. Once, if Washington

485
00:21:33,680 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 2: State starts to click on offense against an air force

486
00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:38,000
Speaker 2: defense it can't defend the pass, then there's going to

487
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,120
Speaker 2: be plenty of points on both sides of the ball.

488
00:21:40,359 --> 00:21:42,600
Speaker 2: I'll roll with first half under, especially at thirty four

489
00:21:42,640 --> 00:21:43,520
Speaker 2: and a half or thirty four.

490
00:21:44,040 --> 00:21:46,440
Speaker 1: Yeah, I actually I lean to the over here, and

491
00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,120
Speaker 1: I think I'm going to play it. Like you said,

492
00:21:48,160 --> 00:21:51,800
Speaker 1: polar opposites. Washington States is seventh and passing success rate,

493
00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:55,359
Speaker 1: and then air Force is like ninetieth in passing success

494
00:21:55,440 --> 00:21:58,320
Speaker 1: right defense. Air Force is seventh and rushing success rate,

495
00:21:58,560 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 1: just like Washington State is seventh in passing success right,

496
00:22:01,080 --> 00:22:04,400
Speaker 1: and both defenses are like ninetieth and defending them also,

497
00:22:04,560 --> 00:22:07,320
Speaker 1: like you mentioned, Washing State is not explosive on offense,

498
00:22:07,560 --> 00:22:09,680
Speaker 1: but they don't turn it over and air Force creates

499
00:22:09,760 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 1: no havoc whatsoever, So like they're just gonna be able

500
00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:15,240
Speaker 1: to methodically move it down the field with their short passes.

501
00:22:15,640 --> 00:22:18,040
Speaker 1: They both can finish drives and then air Force, Like

502
00:22:18,119 --> 00:22:20,679
Speaker 1: you said, there's gonna be no negative plays. When air

503
00:22:20,760 --> 00:22:23,200
Speaker 1: Force says the ball there's Washington doesn't get in the backfield,

504
00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:25,480
Speaker 1: they're gonna get pushed around, and air Force could just

505
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:27,199
Speaker 1: methodically move it up into the field and then when

506
00:22:27,200 --> 00:22:29,440
Speaker 1: they want they want to take a shot, they're gonna

507
00:22:29,480 --> 00:22:32,679
Speaker 1: hit it their first. At the past exposiveness against Washington

508
00:22:32,680 --> 00:22:34,480
Speaker 1: sit it was like one hundred and eleven in past

509
00:22:34,560 --> 00:22:36,720
Speaker 1: exposed to this defense. And then on top of that,

510
00:22:37,200 --> 00:22:39,359
Speaker 1: you have these two teams that are great at finishing drives,

511
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 1: and also this is an underrated factor you're gonna have.

512
00:22:42,720 --> 00:22:45,120
Speaker 1: I think both coaches at the Bowl and they're both

513
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,840
Speaker 1: kind of like this. Anyway, if it's fourth and two

514
00:22:47,920 --> 00:22:50,680
Speaker 1: at the forty five, they're going for it. So either

515
00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:52,280
Speaker 1: if they don't get it, the other team takes over

516
00:22:52,320 --> 00:22:54,880
Speaker 1: at the forty five, or they continue to drive. You're

517
00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,840
Speaker 1: not going to have the nightmare here where they're punning

518
00:22:57,880 --> 00:23:00,040
Speaker 1: at the fifty on fourth and one and then and

519
00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:02,600
Speaker 1: the other team starts the five. So that'll I think

520
00:23:02,840 --> 00:23:05,400
Speaker 1: help a little bit with the you know, the lack

521
00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,000
Speaker 1: of explosiveness and the pace concerns is that I don't

522
00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,119
Speaker 1: think you're gonna have as many drives that are you

523
00:23:10,400 --> 00:23:12,600
Speaker 1: have to go ninety yards after a punt as you

524
00:23:12,720 --> 00:23:14,760
Speaker 1: normally would in the game because of who these two

525
00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:16,359
Speaker 1: coaches are, because of who Air Force is, because the

526
00:23:16,359 --> 00:23:18,640
Speaker 1: Air Force those they could just run it. And it's

527
00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:20,480
Speaker 1: a bowl at the end of the day. So you're

528
00:23:20,480 --> 00:23:22,760
Speaker 1: going to be a little more risky. And then you know,

529
00:23:22,880 --> 00:23:25,040
Speaker 1: another thing that I wanted to mention is that you

530
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:26,960
Speaker 1: know and if you want to back Air Force, I wait,

531
00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:28,520
Speaker 1: it looks like the lines coming down. And also these

532
00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:30,359
Speaker 1: two like these two teams might go for two at

533
00:23:30,400 --> 00:23:32,560
Speaker 1: the end, so met the money line or money line

534
00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:35,159
Speaker 1: parlay instead of laying one or two. But I do

535
00:23:35,320 --> 00:23:37,280
Speaker 1: need to mention this, and I saw this being floated

536
00:23:37,359 --> 00:23:40,600
Speaker 1: around by other people, but I was the source of it.

537
00:23:40,880 --> 00:23:46,600
Speaker 1: It's nineteen it's nineteen eighty. Service academies are seventy four

538
00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:50,720
Speaker 1: percent against the spread. So it's nineteen eighty Army seven

539
00:23:50,800 --> 00:23:53,760
Speaker 1: and one, Navy, twelve and five Air Force fifteen to

540
00:23:53,880 --> 00:23:57,320
Speaker 1: eight seventy four percent. Now what does that mean, Well,

541
00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 1: it means that a lot of balls come down to

542
00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:03,119
Speaker 1: motivation rights, a lot of balls and some most of

543
00:24:03,200 --> 00:24:04,639
Speaker 1: them are hard to cap, How are you going to

544
00:24:04,680 --> 00:24:06,000
Speaker 1: know if this team is going to show up or not.

545
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,600
Speaker 1: Sometimes we could take an educated guest where we think

546
00:24:08,600 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 1: we have an edge, But a lot of times it's like,

547
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:12,440
Speaker 1: I don't know, we don't know that it looks like

548
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 1: SMU never got off the bus. But the one constant

549
00:24:17,320 --> 00:24:19,159
Speaker 1: that I am very confident in saying is that a

550
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:22,640
Speaker 1: Service Academy team will always always show up no matter

551
00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 1: where they're playing. We said this every week. There's no

552
00:24:24,920 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: flat spots, so they're always going to show up. There's

553
00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:30,359
Speaker 1: never going to be a lack of motivation. They're always

554
00:24:30,440 --> 00:24:32,840
Speaker 1: going to be as motivated as they are every week.

555
00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 1: So backing service academies has been extremely profitable in the past.

556
00:24:37,920 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 2: And I'm going to try to get out of the

557
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:40,879
Speaker 2: Washington state number that I have. I think it's a

558
00:24:40,920 --> 00:24:42,800
Speaker 2: great game to play both sides, to get a field

559
00:24:42,840 --> 00:24:45,360
Speaker 2: goal on both sides, game too, Yeah, great live game.

560
00:24:45,680 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can trade this game back and forth. And

561
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,560
Speaker 1: if one team goes up fourteen, who cares like the

562
00:24:50,600 --> 00:24:52,520
Speaker 1: other team should be able to come back. All right,

563
00:24:52,720 --> 00:24:56,920
Speaker 1: So that'll wrap up Friday's Bowls. Let's move on to Saturday.

564
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 1: We'll cover the two early games, and we'll get into

565
00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:01,120
Speaker 1: the college football player. If there's two games at noon,

566
00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,960
Speaker 1: we'll start with. Let's go with Memphis Penn State. Penn

567
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,440
Speaker 1: State is laying seven here. It's on ESPN at noon

568
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:14,879
Speaker 1: in Arlington, over under sixty and a half. Something to

569
00:25:15,040 --> 00:25:18,560
Speaker 1: note here in regards to Memphis, they're right tackle. Dill

570
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:22,480
Speaker 1: Senior right tackle is out. They're tight end. Who's second

571
00:25:22,520 --> 00:25:25,600
Speaker 1: team all Ac Joey. I always want to call a magnificent,

572
00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:29,240
Speaker 1: MAGNIFICENTO magnific though I always say his name wrong, but

573
00:25:29,359 --> 00:25:31,879
Speaker 1: he's out for this game too. Look, I actually have

574
00:25:32,040 --> 00:25:34,159
Speaker 1: I've been higher on Memphis, and I think a lot

575
00:25:34,200 --> 00:25:35,879
Speaker 1: of people all year, so I actually think there's a

576
00:25:35,920 --> 00:25:37,639
Speaker 1: little bit of value the number. But with both of

577
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:40,399
Speaker 1: those guys out, there's a lot of unknowns in this game, right.

578
00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:42,920
Speaker 1: Because of all there's the coaching carousels I'll let you

579
00:25:42,960 --> 00:25:46,040
Speaker 1: speak to that on each team are spinning, and there's

580
00:25:46,119 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: news on Penn State of the new offensive coordator from

581
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,480
Speaker 1: Minnesota today. But when I look at this game, I

582
00:25:50,680 --> 00:25:54,200
Speaker 1: like this Memphis team for a variety of reasons. But

583
00:25:54,280 --> 00:25:56,240
Speaker 1: when I look at this Penn State team, the narrative

584
00:25:56,280 --> 00:25:59,840
Speaker 1: all year and it's come to fruition more times than not.

585
00:26:00,119 --> 00:26:04,879
Speaker 1: Is these Penn State fast starts, extremely extremely fast starts,

586
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:08,560
Speaker 1: and we know which excise me some pauses as coaching changes,

587
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,080
Speaker 1: but we have our hypothesis is that they're you know,

588
00:26:11,160 --> 00:26:13,199
Speaker 1: Sean Clifford is great in the scripted portion of the game,

589
00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:15,200
Speaker 1: and then they die off. I mean, Penn State's averaging

590
00:26:15,240 --> 00:26:18,080
Speaker 1: eight point eight points per first quarter, that's fifteenth in

591
00:26:18,160 --> 00:26:19,960
Speaker 1: the nation. You know what they are in the second

592
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:23,040
Speaker 1: quarter six point eight, that's eighty ninth. So you can

593
00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 1: see the drop off right there. You know, Memphis is

594
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:28,960
Speaker 1: sixth to the nation, and second quarter points at thirteen

595
00:26:29,040 --> 00:26:32,000
Speaker 1: point four and thirteenth in the third quarter. You know,

596
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:34,520
Speaker 1: in the fourth quarter, Memphis thirty first, whereas Penn State

597
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:36,480
Speaker 1: eighty ninth, in the second quarter thirtieth, and the third

598
00:26:36,560 --> 00:26:39,000
Speaker 1: quarter seventy third. In the fourth quarter, and the Penn

599
00:26:39,040 --> 00:26:42,800
Speaker 1: State defense of the first quarter really good. Memphis defense

600
00:26:42,840 --> 00:26:45,960
Speaker 1: of the first quarter not that good. So everything here

601
00:26:46,520 --> 00:26:50,480
Speaker 1: points to once again Penn State probably jumping out to

602
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,440
Speaker 1: a lead or giving me a chance to get in

603
00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: on Memphis at a better number than I would at seven,

604
00:26:55,560 --> 00:26:58,160
Speaker 1: targeting ten or more. So it's a game I don't

605
00:26:58,160 --> 00:27:00,920
Speaker 1: think I want to get involved in pre especially with

606
00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:03,679
Speaker 1: all the you know, all these coaching the coaching turnover

607
00:27:03,760 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 1: as well. But if this game goes according to how

608
00:27:07,040 --> 00:27:09,280
Speaker 1: many of Penn State's games went this year, I think

609
00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:11,080
Speaker 1: I'll have an opportunity at some point in the first

610
00:27:11,160 --> 00:27:13,920
Speaker 1: quarter to jump into on Memphis if you know they're

611
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 1: down ten, thirteen, fourteen, maybe even seven. Nothing.

612
00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think the hardest thing to handicap is

613
00:27:21,920 --> 00:27:24,760
Speaker 2: those scripted plays that you and I have been handicapping

614
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:28,120
Speaker 2: all year. Sean Clifford and Ricky Rain, the offensive coordinator

615
00:27:28,119 --> 00:27:29,920
Speaker 2: who is no longer with Penn State as he took

616
00:27:29,960 --> 00:27:33,120
Speaker 2: the coaching gig down at Old Dominion. I can't find

617
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:35,720
Speaker 2: any information at all whether on kJ Hamler's playing, whether

618
00:27:36,320 --> 00:27:37,879
Speaker 2: how healthy he is, which I think he should be

619
00:27:37,960 --> 00:27:40,480
Speaker 2: fine after having some injuries in November. But you know,

620
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 2: the the NFL draft thing kind of looms over that.

621
00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:44,320
Speaker 2: We haven't heard a decision on what he's going to do.

622
00:27:44,359 --> 00:27:46,000
Speaker 2: You would think there would be an announcement right now.

623
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:49,119
Speaker 2: But assuming Sean Clifford and kJ Hamler are healthy, are

624
00:27:49,200 --> 00:27:50,560
Speaker 2: these plays going to be scripted up?

625
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:51,400
Speaker 1: And by who?

626
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:53,680
Speaker 2: And and I think the same thing goes over on

627
00:27:53,720 --> 00:27:55,720
Speaker 2: the Memphis side too. I mean, Ryan Silverfield is a

628
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:58,280
Speaker 2: new head coach. He was the run game coordinator. Mike

629
00:27:58,680 --> 00:28:02,359
Speaker 2: Norvelle had the entire higher play calling at his display.

630
00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:05,720
Speaker 2: He made all the play calls. Everything ran through him.

631
00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:07,840
Speaker 2: Not one play went on with Memphis that didn't go

632
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,440
Speaker 2: through Mike norvel He had full control. And now that

633
00:28:10,520 --> 00:28:12,440
Speaker 2: he's gone, there's nobody on the offensive side of the

634
00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:15,879
Speaker 2: ball from Memphis that has experience in at least calling plays.

635
00:28:16,200 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 2: So you got to think defensive coordinator for Penn State

636
00:28:18,800 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 2: Brent pry who's one of the best in the nation.

637
00:28:21,040 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 2: He's going to be able to make adjustments at halftime

638
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:24,600
Speaker 2: and Penn State's going to be able to get this game.

639
00:28:24,680 --> 00:28:26,680
Speaker 2: Win this game. Now, can they cover the game? I'm

640
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,000
Speaker 2: not sure. And will Memphis have a lead or will

641
00:28:29,000 --> 00:28:31,520
Speaker 2: they at least be playing even through halftime? That I

642
00:28:31,600 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: don't know either, because there's just so many questions here.

643
00:28:34,320 --> 00:28:35,800
Speaker 2: I mean, I hate to, like I said this before,

644
00:28:35,880 --> 00:28:37,439
Speaker 2: another pot, I hate to punt and just say, well

645
00:28:37,480 --> 00:28:40,600
Speaker 2: play this live. But truly, we don't know what's going

646
00:28:40,640 --> 00:28:42,880
Speaker 2: on with the offensive play calling on both sides of

647
00:28:42,880 --> 00:28:45,479
Speaker 2: the ball. It's a complete mystery to the Penn State's defense.

648
00:28:45,720 --> 00:28:48,560
Speaker 2: Penn State's defense has been susceptible to long passes. Look

649
00:28:48,560 --> 00:28:53,080
Speaker 2: at Minnesota beat them, and Memphis is capable of having

650
00:28:53,120 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 2: explosive passing. They're fifth in the nation and passing explosiveness

651
00:28:56,240 --> 00:28:59,640
Speaker 2: top twenty and passing success rate. So you know there's

652
00:28:59,680 --> 00:29:01,880
Speaker 2: a lot going on here with with missing pieces in

653
00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,080
Speaker 2: the coaching staff. Will the plays be scripted for Penn State.

654
00:29:05,760 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 2: Penn State's defense is susceptible to explosive plays through the air,

655
00:29:10,520 --> 00:29:13,720
Speaker 2: so this is a really hard one to handicap. I

656
00:29:13,960 --> 00:29:16,400
Speaker 2: know that we mentioned that Penn State starts off hot

657
00:29:16,440 --> 00:29:18,920
Speaker 2: and Memphis starts off cold in the first quarter, but

658
00:29:19,040 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 2: I kind of feel like the unknown helps Memphis in

659
00:29:22,200 --> 00:29:23,920
Speaker 2: the first half. I mean, I would say, at Memphis

660
00:29:23,920 --> 00:29:26,200
Speaker 2: plus four in the first half, you know, maybe good,

661
00:29:26,680 --> 00:29:29,280
Speaker 2: especially if Penn State doesn't have those offensive plays scripted

662
00:29:29,320 --> 00:29:31,600
Speaker 2: like they have in the past. Ultimately, I think Penn

663
00:29:31,640 --> 00:29:33,920
Speaker 2: State is going to win the game after adjustments are

664
00:29:33,960 --> 00:29:36,320
Speaker 2: made at halftime. But there's a lot of unknowns in

665
00:29:36,360 --> 00:29:36,640
Speaker 2: this game.

666
00:29:37,240 --> 00:29:39,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I would agree, and keep your keep your

667
00:29:39,040 --> 00:29:42,640
Speaker 1: eye on Riley Patterson, the kicker for Memphis a weapon

668
00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:44,960
Speaker 1: that they have hit two fifty plus yarners in the

669
00:29:45,080 --> 00:29:48,280
Speaker 1: second half against Cincinnati in their last game, I think

670
00:29:48,280 --> 00:29:50,440
Speaker 1: at the AC Championship game. So that's something to keep

671
00:29:50,440 --> 00:29:51,719
Speaker 1: your eye on too. But ye, I agree, I think

672
00:29:51,760 --> 00:29:53,840
Speaker 1: that this is there's a lot of unknowns. I also

673
00:29:53,880 --> 00:29:55,720
Speaker 1: I am worried about the right side of that Memphis

674
00:29:55,800 --> 00:29:58,760
Speaker 1: offensive line against that that Penn State front seventy less

675
00:29:58,760 --> 00:30:01,040
Speaker 1: time should be solid. There's some questions at the right side,

676
00:30:01,080 --> 00:30:03,160
Speaker 1: especially with jyll Al and are they gonna be able

677
00:30:03,160 --> 00:30:05,200
Speaker 1: to run the ball against his Penn State really good

678
00:30:05,280 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 1: run defense. So yeah, I think probably the best non

679
00:30:09,680 --> 00:30:11,920
Speaker 1: you know, I expect this to be back and forth

680
00:30:12,120 --> 00:30:14,840
Speaker 1: every possession, live game on the board.

681
00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,240
Speaker 2: If Memphis can rush the ball against this Penn State

682
00:30:17,280 --> 00:30:19,560
Speaker 2: front seven, they're going to offensively score as many points

683
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:21,400
Speaker 2: as they want. They have to be successful on the

684
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:23,000
Speaker 2: ground to be able to throw it downfield.

685
00:30:23,240 --> 00:30:25,360
Speaker 1: Completely agree. Yeah, that sets up everything and if they

686
00:30:25,400 --> 00:30:27,280
Speaker 1: can't run it, their offense is going to go a mush.

687
00:30:27,680 --> 00:30:29,560
Speaker 1: All right, So let's talk about the other game at

688
00:30:29,680 --> 00:30:32,760
Speaker 1: noon with the Notre Dame and Iowa's State. Notre Dame

689
00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 1: is a three and a half point favorite over under

690
00:30:34,560 --> 00:30:38,480
Speaker 1: fifty four. This game is in Orlando at Camping World Stadium.

691
00:30:38,960 --> 00:30:40,520
Speaker 1: It looks like maybe a little bit of win, but

692
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:43,000
Speaker 1: I don't think anything to note. You know, one thing

693
00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:47,520
Speaker 1: that I'll say here is whenever I see Matt Campbell

694
00:30:47,600 --> 00:30:51,040
Speaker 1: as a dog, it catches my interest. He's twenty nine

695
00:30:51,080 --> 00:30:52,680
Speaker 1: to fifteen against the spread as a dog. That's the

696
00:30:52,800 --> 00:30:55,560
Speaker 1: sixth most most profitable coach in our databaseins two thousand

697
00:30:55,560 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 1: and five. That's among five hundred and twenty seven coaches.

698
00:30:58,840 --> 00:31:02,000
Speaker 1: Brian Kelly, al though, has been great on the road

699
00:31:02,640 --> 00:31:05,640
Speaker 1: or in neutral fields. He's fifty two thirty five and three.

700
00:31:05,880 --> 00:31:08,960
Speaker 1: That's about right, about sixty percent and sixteen percent ROI.

701
00:31:09,440 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 1: You know, when I look at this game, one of

702
00:31:10,760 --> 00:31:12,560
Speaker 1: the first things that jumps out to me is does

703
00:31:12,680 --> 00:31:16,080
Speaker 1: the time off kurt Notre Dame Because if you look

704
00:31:16,160 --> 00:31:19,240
Speaker 1: at this game was played December sixth, you know, about

705
00:31:19,240 --> 00:31:22,320
Speaker 1: a month ago, Notre Dame was rolling, right. You know,

706
00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 1: they trucked BC, they trucked Navy, they truck Duke, Stanley

707
00:31:26,640 --> 00:31:30,560
Speaker 1: trucked Stanford, which Stanford should have covered, but that's another story.

708
00:31:31,360 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 1: So they were just rolling teams playing very well. Whereas

709
00:31:34,520 --> 00:31:38,240
Speaker 1: Iowa State and look Iowa State record is they're seven

710
00:31:38,280 --> 00:31:40,000
Speaker 1: to five. Kind of misleading. Now, I think they went

711
00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 1: one in five against the spread against bowl teams this year.

712
00:31:42,480 --> 00:31:44,280
Speaker 1: But you know, they lost by one to Iowa, could

713
00:31:44,280 --> 00:31:46,080
Speaker 1: have won that game, they lost by two to Bailor

714
00:31:46,120 --> 00:31:47,760
Speaker 1: could have won that game, and a lot of their

715
00:31:47,840 --> 00:31:49,960
Speaker 1: losses they could have won, play here or there. This

716
00:31:50,040 --> 00:31:52,680
Speaker 1: team's in the Big Twelve Championship, but they didn't end

717
00:31:52,720 --> 00:31:55,560
Speaker 1: the season well starting with that Oklahoma game. They did

718
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 1: lose by one, but they were now twenty one for

719
00:31:57,400 --> 00:32:00,400
Speaker 1: most of the game. The Texas game at home Texas,

720
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:01,760
Speaker 1: if they just know how to kick field like the

721
00:32:01,800 --> 00:32:04,160
Speaker 1: Texas probably should have won that game. Then they have

722
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:06,640
Speaker 1: a horrible performance at home against Kansas and they give

723
00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:08,800
Speaker 1: up thirty one points. Then they lose, you know, as

724
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:11,280
Speaker 1: four and a half point favorites at Kansas stay twenty

725
00:32:11,320 --> 00:32:13,800
Speaker 1: seven to seventeen. So these two teams are just headed

726
00:32:13,840 --> 00:32:16,040
Speaker 1: in different directions to end the year. Do I take

727
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,000
Speaker 1: anything from that? Or do I say maybe the time

728
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:20,800
Speaker 1: off helped Iowa State and it kind of killed some

729
00:32:20,880 --> 00:32:23,240
Speaker 1: of the Notre Dame momentum that they had going. I

730
00:32:23,280 --> 00:32:24,800
Speaker 1: don't know. I think that you like the under here,

731
00:32:24,840 --> 00:32:26,720
Speaker 1: which is also interesting to me. What do you see?

732
00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 2: Yeah, I like the under for a lot of things

733
00:32:28,440 --> 00:32:31,320
Speaker 2: that you talked about. I mean Notre Dames. First off,

734
00:32:31,400 --> 00:32:33,440
Speaker 2: let's start with the Iowa State side. No matter if

735
00:32:33,640 --> 00:32:37,280
Speaker 2: they struggle to stay in sync with Brock Party in

736
00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 2: the passing game, Notre Dame secondary is excellent. They are

737
00:32:41,640 --> 00:32:44,480
Speaker 2: one of the best in the nation and stopping passing

738
00:32:44,920 --> 00:32:48,480
Speaker 2: success rate and explosiveness their top twenty and defensive passing

739
00:32:48,520 --> 00:32:52,000
Speaker 2: success rate they're twelve and stopping explosive pass and that's

740
00:32:52,000 --> 00:32:53,720
Speaker 2: going to be a problem for Rock Party. I Always

741
00:32:53,720 --> 00:32:57,000
Speaker 2: State has no run game whatsoever. Without Dave Montgomery, They've

742
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,400
Speaker 2: been just, you know, terrible running the ball this year

743
00:32:59,400 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 2: one hundred and nine, the rush explosive in this eightieth

744
00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:04,560
Speaker 2: and rushing success rate. It's just going to be Iowa

745
00:33:04,640 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 2: State's good, which is the pass with brock Perty versus

746
00:33:07,640 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 2: Notre Dame's good on defense, which is the secondary. And

747
00:33:10,560 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 2: for me that I don't think that's going to create

748
00:33:12,120 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 2: a whole bunch of points, especially considering Iowa State's offense

749
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:19,720
Speaker 2: is fifty second and finishing drives. Nothing special there, you know,

750
00:33:20,200 --> 00:33:22,320
Speaker 2: And you look at Notre Dame, I don't really know

751
00:33:22,400 --> 00:33:24,840
Speaker 2: if they want to be here. So Brian Kelly fires

752
00:33:24,920 --> 00:33:26,800
Speaker 2: Chip Long, coming right off of a ten to two season.

753
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,440
Speaker 2: He fires his offensive coordinator, who was a nominee for

754
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,479
Speaker 2: the Broils Award last year and their college football playoff run.

755
00:33:33,760 --> 00:33:36,040
Speaker 2: Kelly didn't really have much comment about this game. He

756
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 2: was just, you know, I'm going to do what's best

757
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,240
Speaker 2: for Notre Dame. We didn't get it done. We need

758
00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:41,360
Speaker 2: to get it done. I think he's specifically talking about Georgia,

759
00:33:41,400 --> 00:33:43,880
Speaker 2: but fires his offensive coordinator and he's going to split

760
00:33:44,000 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 2: play calling, scheme, everything between the running backs and the

761
00:33:47,040 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 2: quarterback coach, which a lot of people around the Notre

762
00:33:49,760 --> 00:33:52,960
Speaker 2: Dame program to think quarterback coach Tommy Reese. This is

763
00:33:53,040 --> 00:33:54,960
Speaker 2: his chance to win the job as offensive coordinator. So

764
00:33:55,000 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 2: we'll see what Notre Dame's got on the offensive side.

765
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,440
Speaker 2: But Brian Kelly has made it very clear I have

766
00:33:59,560 --> 00:34:01,080
Speaker 2: nothing to do with the offensive side of the ball

767
00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:02,920
Speaker 2: in this game. I will not call the plays. I

768
00:34:03,080 --> 00:34:05,840
Speaker 2: will pop in and advise, but you know, in the planning,

769
00:34:05,880 --> 00:34:07,240
Speaker 2: but I will not be calling the plays and I

770
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,400
Speaker 2: will not be in control of what happens around Notre

771
00:34:09,480 --> 00:34:11,279
Speaker 2: Dame on the offense. So that's another reason why I

772
00:34:11,440 --> 00:34:13,040
Speaker 2: kind of like the under on this game. And I

773
00:34:13,160 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 2: know that the narrative around Notre Dame is that those

774
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:18,080
Speaker 2: teams we mentioned Stan for BC, Navy, Duke combined margin

775
00:34:18,200 --> 00:34:19,200
Speaker 2: one hundred and seven points.

776
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:19,960
Speaker 1: They blew them out.

777
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:21,640
Speaker 2: So Notre Dame was the hot team. But you don't

778
00:34:21,680 --> 00:34:24,120
Speaker 2: understand is Brian Kelly was trying to get Notre Dame

779
00:34:24,239 --> 00:34:25,680
Speaker 2: up in the top twelve so that he could make

780
00:34:25,719 --> 00:34:28,080
Speaker 2: the Cotton Bowl, get the at large bit. Their goal

781
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:29,879
Speaker 2: was to make a New Year's six game. Their goal

782
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 2: was not to be in this bowl whatsoever. At trip

783
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:34,400
Speaker 2: to Orlando a year after making the College Football Playoff,

784
00:34:34,600 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 2: this is this is not what they wanted whatsoever. And

785
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:39,839
Speaker 2: Brian Kelly has a history of stinking up bulls. Notre

786
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,680
Speaker 2: Dame didn't cover Rutgers in twenty thirteen, Cincinnati didn't cover

787
00:34:42,800 --> 00:34:45,760
Speaker 2: Southern Miss in two thousand and seven. Only two college

788
00:34:45,800 --> 00:34:48,440
Speaker 2: football programs Brian Kelly has covered in bowl season in

789
00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:52,000
Speaker 2: his entire career. That's LS in Miami everybody else. He

790
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 2: has not covered against the spread in any bowl game. Ever.

791
00:34:54,800 --> 00:34:56,600
Speaker 2: He gets up for the big games. He's an excellent

792
00:34:56,680 --> 00:34:58,840
Speaker 2: coach when it means something, and it matters, you know.

793
00:34:58,880 --> 00:35:00,440
Speaker 2: I don't want to get too far into how I

794
00:35:00,520 --> 00:35:03,200
Speaker 2: don't think he wanted ian book is the quarterback the

795
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:04,920
Speaker 2: Notre Dame that they have a five star, you know,

796
00:35:05,000 --> 00:35:07,359
Speaker 2: quarterback behind me in book that I think Brian Kelly

797
00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:10,399
Speaker 2: has wanted to be the quarterback for quite a long time.

798
00:35:10,520 --> 00:35:12,200
Speaker 2: So there's I think there's a lot of things where

799
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:13,640
Speaker 2: Brian Kelly is just ready to turn the page and

800
00:35:13,719 --> 00:35:16,080
Speaker 2: gets twenty twenty. We mentioned Iowa State has had a

801
00:35:16,120 --> 00:35:18,759
Speaker 2: lot of close losses, but you know, Irish defense is,

802
00:35:18,840 --> 00:35:20,480
Speaker 2: you know, like we said, they're the tops of the

803
00:35:20,560 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 2: nation and stopping the pass. So I just don't see

804
00:35:22,560 --> 00:35:24,279
Speaker 2: a lot of points from Notre Dame and I don't

805
00:35:24,280 --> 00:35:26,840
Speaker 2: see Iowa State able to overcome Notre Dame secondary. So

806
00:35:27,120 --> 00:35:29,320
Speaker 2: even though I projected at fifty nine, you know, just

807
00:35:29,400 --> 00:35:32,080
Speaker 2: a small investment on the under fifty four and a half,

808
00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:34,359
Speaker 2: I think the side is correct. I've got at Notre

809
00:35:34,440 --> 00:35:36,880
Speaker 2: Dame minus four, so there's not really anything there for

810
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:37,319
Speaker 2: me either.

811
00:35:37,360 --> 00:35:38,800
Speaker 1: But I would take Iowas State if I had to.

812
00:35:39,120 --> 00:35:42,839
Speaker 1: We will obviously have great previews for every single ball

813
00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:45,839
Speaker 1: that Colin and I and are colleagu Columa are working

814
00:35:45,920 --> 00:35:48,960
Speaker 1: on Tiresley, so check out and you know sometimes that

815
00:35:49,080 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 1: what we're doing this pod and then there's a preview

816
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,400
Speaker 1: that goes up six days later. There's some updates and

817
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:55,480
Speaker 1: things that we might have played a little differently, so

818
00:35:55,520 --> 00:35:56,960
Speaker 1: make sure you check them out on the Action app

819
00:35:57,280 --> 00:36:01,160
Speaker 1: and Action network dot com. All right, time to cover

820
00:36:01,360 --> 00:36:06,080
Speaker 1: the college football playoff semi finals. There's no question about it.

821
00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:11,799
Speaker 1: Let's go beyond. Sorry to me, I mean, it's every

822
00:36:11,880 --> 00:36:14,040
Speaker 1: ball is worth the same. So but if you've been

823
00:36:14,080 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 1: waiting for the college ball playoff breakdowns, that time has arrived.

824
00:36:19,080 --> 00:36:22,759
Speaker 1: We're going to obviously start in chronological order, so that

825
00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 1: means we are starting for Eastern in the game between

826
00:36:26,960 --> 00:36:31,080
Speaker 1: Oklahoma and LSU LSU thirteen and OHO Oklahoma twelve and

827
00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,920
Speaker 1: one on the year, This game's four Eastern on ESPN

828
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,279
Speaker 1: and Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. This line sitting at

829
00:36:37,600 --> 00:36:42,040
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half fourteen ish, LSU obviously the favorite

830
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:45,799
Speaker 1: over under seventy six. You know, I said before these

831
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:49,279
Speaker 1: balls came out, my line here was LSU minus ten

832
00:36:49,600 --> 00:36:53,279
Speaker 1: over under sixty nine. Given where this game is and

833
00:36:53,760 --> 00:36:55,920
Speaker 1: maybe some of the games scripts that I'm anticipating. I

834
00:36:55,920 --> 00:36:57,879
Speaker 1: don't know if I necessarily want to bet the under

835
00:36:57,920 --> 00:36:59,640
Speaker 1: in this game, even though I think there's a little

836
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:02,160
Speaker 1: bit of that value. My whole point here is that

837
00:37:02,719 --> 00:37:05,359
Speaker 1: I made it ten. I think else who's gonna win.

838
00:37:05,480 --> 00:37:08,080
Speaker 1: But if it got to fourteen, I'm investing just in

839
00:37:08,120 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 1: the value the number on Oklahoma, which it did, and

840
00:37:10,080 --> 00:37:12,319
Speaker 1: I played a little bit on the Sooners. I also

841
00:37:12,360 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 1: think it'll be a great game to bet live. But

842
00:37:15,480 --> 00:37:17,400
Speaker 1: before we get in any of that, we need your thoughts.

843
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:20,200
Speaker 1: We also need updates on Herrara, We need updates on

844
00:37:20,440 --> 00:37:23,040
Speaker 1: the Yoklahoma suspensions and all that, because there's been a

845
00:37:23,120 --> 00:37:26,399
Speaker 1: lot of news swirling in this game compared to the others.

846
00:37:26,480 --> 00:37:27,960
Speaker 1: So take it from here.

847
00:37:28,719 --> 00:37:30,400
Speaker 2: I think we should start with the points spread. I mean,

848
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 2: it opened up somewhere around your projection. You know, I

849
00:37:32,719 --> 00:37:35,319
Speaker 2: made it minus eight for LSU. But it's been nothing

850
00:37:35,400 --> 00:37:38,640
Speaker 2: but LSU money out of the gate, LSU dominating Georgia

851
00:37:39,160 --> 00:37:41,520
Speaker 2: and oh you go into overtime with Baylor in the

852
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,360
Speaker 2: Big Self Championship. There's been nothing but LSU money come in.

853
00:37:44,680 --> 00:37:47,680
Speaker 2: You know, there were some suspensions related to failing a

854
00:37:47,760 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 2: drug test. Offensively, that's running back Ormandre Stevenson and wide

855
00:37:52,640 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 2: receiver chus On Bridges. Stevenson is the big one because

856
00:37:55,640 --> 00:37:57,440
Speaker 2: I mean they're already been at running back and Stevenson

857
00:37:57,520 --> 00:37:59,600
Speaker 2: was an explosive back, averaging eight yards of carrying. He

858
00:37:59,640 --> 00:38:03,000
Speaker 2: had six on the season. Defensively, they lost their top

859
00:38:03,080 --> 00:38:05,600
Speaker 2: guy in sacks and Ronnie Perkins. He was seventh in

860
00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:08,239
Speaker 2: total tackles on the team, but he was the havoc guy.

861
00:38:08,920 --> 00:38:12,279
Speaker 2: Oklahoma's tenth and defensive havoc in the nation. But most

862
00:38:12,320 --> 00:38:14,880
Speaker 2: of that number is fueled by tackles for loss, and

863
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:16,920
Speaker 2: Ronnie Perkins was second on the team with thirteen and

864
00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:19,200
Speaker 2: a half tackles for loss. So the loss of Perkins

865
00:38:19,280 --> 00:38:20,520
Speaker 2: is huge. I mean a lot of people point to

866
00:38:20,560 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 2: the sacks. It's not even really the sacks. Ronnie Perkins

867
00:38:23,200 --> 00:38:26,400
Speaker 2: was behind the line of scrimmage all the time consistently,

868
00:38:26,840 --> 00:38:29,480
Speaker 2: So that's not there for Oklahoma anymore. And that defensive

869
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 2: number of tenth and havoc, that's not going to be

870
00:38:31,960 --> 00:38:34,239
Speaker 2: the Oklahoma defense. It's on the field against LSU. I

871
00:38:34,280 --> 00:38:37,240
Speaker 2: think the question really remains, though, is can Joe Burrow

872
00:38:37,320 --> 00:38:39,720
Speaker 2: be stopped? Because no matter what we say about tackles

873
00:38:39,760 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 2: for loss and oh you're getting into the backfield. Joe

874
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 2: Burrow has been excellent, a Heisman Trophy winner at manipulating

875
00:38:46,120 --> 00:38:48,279
Speaker 2: defenses and getting rid of the ball and doing what

876
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:50,360
Speaker 2: he's got to do to get this offense down the field.

877
00:38:50,840 --> 00:38:53,600
Speaker 2: So you know, ou speed d under Alex Grinch. Were

878
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 2: they really going to put the pressure on and come

879
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 2: after Joe Burrow? Are they going to sit back, keep

880
00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:59,920
Speaker 2: some guys back? You know, how are they going to

881
00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:02,279
Speaker 2: deal with a healthy amount of explosive players are going

882
00:39:02,360 --> 00:39:05,839
Speaker 2: to come their way. I think there's two huge keys

883
00:39:05,880 --> 00:39:09,040
Speaker 2: of this game, and you mentioned injury. There's two monster

884
00:39:09,160 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 2: keys of this game. And it's all you need to

885
00:39:10,800 --> 00:39:12,200
Speaker 2: know for the total, It's all you need to know

886
00:39:12,280 --> 00:39:16,200
Speaker 2: for the side. Clyde Edwards Hilar's mobility and Jalen Hurts

887
00:39:16,600 --> 00:39:19,800
Speaker 2: ball protection. So as far as Clyde Edwards Hilara, his

888
00:39:19,880 --> 00:39:21,879
Speaker 2: status is just all over the place. I mean, I'm

889
00:39:21,920 --> 00:39:23,520
Speaker 2: reading tweets this morning as we're about to go on

890
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:24,320
Speaker 2: and record this.

891
00:39:25,120 --> 00:39:27,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, it starts his name so many times this week

892
00:39:27,239 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 1: on Twitter.

893
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:29,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, correct me if you've seen anything different. But it's

894
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:33,560
Speaker 2: like not cleared to practice, just got off crutches, coach. Oh,

895
00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:36,920
Speaker 2: there's a chance Insmiger Clyde will be there. What will

896
00:39:37,000 --> 00:39:39,320
Speaker 2: be there? Mean, I have no clue, you know, not

897
00:39:39,440 --> 00:39:42,840
Speaker 2: available to the media. It's just kind of a circus

898
00:39:42,920 --> 00:39:44,840
Speaker 2: on his status. And I just don't think people that

899
00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:48,319
Speaker 2: are betting LSU blindly don't realize that Edwards Lallar caught

900
00:39:48,440 --> 00:39:50,759
Speaker 2: fifty balls from Burrow in the backfield. I mean, he

901
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,160
Speaker 2: is the safety blanket, he is the third down guy.

902
00:39:53,320 --> 00:39:56,040
Speaker 2: He is twelve hundred yards rushing. I mean, the LSU

903
00:39:56,120 --> 00:39:58,240
Speaker 2: offense as much as we have a heisman with Joe Burrow,

904
00:39:58,600 --> 00:40:00,880
Speaker 2: if he's not there for running back, the backup is

905
00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:03,160
Speaker 2: Terry and Davis Price. He just has ten catches out

906
00:40:03,160 --> 00:40:05,120
Speaker 2: of the backfield only two hundred and seventy yards rushing.

907
00:40:05,360 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 2: That's a big drop off in production at running back,

908
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:09,680
Speaker 2: and that's going to affect them on third down. I'm

909
00:40:09,719 --> 00:40:11,759
Speaker 2: not sure if that, you know, says more about the

910
00:40:11,880 --> 00:40:14,000
Speaker 2: under than it does about the side. But as far

911
00:40:14,080 --> 00:40:16,879
Speaker 2: as you know LSU goes, that's it. I mean, that's

912
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:19,000
Speaker 2: the reason why I am willing to wait as long

913
00:40:19,040 --> 00:40:21,239
Speaker 2: as possible to see I mean, I've already got one

914
00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:23,319
Speaker 2: bet in one you to bet in on Oklahoma at

915
00:40:23,360 --> 00:40:26,440
Speaker 2: fourteen because just number alone, it should not be that high.

916
00:40:26,440 --> 00:40:28,840
Speaker 2: I don't care about suspensions, but I am willing to

917
00:40:28,880 --> 00:40:30,919
Speaker 2: wait before I invest more to see if Clyde Edwards

918
00:40:30,960 --> 00:40:34,680
Speaker 2: Laller is on the field practicing is immobile. I want

919
00:40:34,719 --> 00:40:37,840
Speaker 2: more information. As far as the second part that I mentioned,

920
00:40:37,960 --> 00:40:41,400
Speaker 2: Jalen hurts ball protection. I think of everything that I

921
00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:44,399
Speaker 2: hear every other media besides you and me, no one's

922
00:40:44,480 --> 00:40:48,400
Speaker 2: covering the biggest handicap, which is Jalen hurts his ball protection.

923
00:40:48,840 --> 00:40:51,160
Speaker 2: If he has a clean box score, he has one

924
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,800
Speaker 2: of the most efficient and most success the best success

925
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,880
Speaker 2: rate offenses in the nation with OU. If he has

926
00:40:56,920 --> 00:40:58,920
Speaker 2: a clean box score, he's going to be able to

927
00:40:58,960 --> 00:41:01,879
Speaker 2: put up points. LSU's thirteenth in HAVOC. So let's look

928
00:41:01,880 --> 00:41:03,560
Speaker 2: at that thirteenth in havoc. What does that actually mean

929
00:41:03,600 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 2: for LSU. That number comes from being the best in

930
00:41:07,600 --> 00:41:11,799
Speaker 2: the nation at pass breakups and passes defense. One key

931
00:41:11,880 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 2: element of HAVOC that I did not mention there is

932
00:41:14,320 --> 00:41:18,200
Speaker 2: forced fumbles. So LSU excellent pass breakups, excellent passes defense,

933
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:23,640
Speaker 2: top ten in interceptions. LSU has only forced five fumbles

934
00:41:23,800 --> 00:41:24,320
Speaker 2: this season.

935
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:25,320
Speaker 1: That's it.

936
00:41:25,719 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 2: There're one hundred and eighteenth in the nation enforcing fumbles

937
00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,000
Speaker 2: five fumbles. You know who that you know who their

938
00:41:31,040 --> 00:41:35,160
Speaker 2: neighbors with in that department. Rice and Utep we are

939
00:41:35,239 --> 00:41:36,680
Speaker 2: talking minor nation.

940
00:41:37,520 --> 00:41:40,360
Speaker 1: Out in the West Dickson town of l Pass.

941
00:41:40,440 --> 00:41:45,960
Speaker 2: So picks up. Yeah, minor nation. If Jalen hurts, biggest

942
00:41:46,000 --> 00:41:47,480
Speaker 2: problem is that he can't hold onto the ball. He's

943
00:41:47,520 --> 00:41:49,719
Speaker 2: taking on a defense that doesn't strip it five times

944
00:41:49,760 --> 00:41:51,560
Speaker 2: the entire season for a team that's in the playoff.

945
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,640
Speaker 2: So a bed on Oklahoma to cover and taking the

946
00:41:54,719 --> 00:41:58,480
Speaker 2: fourteen comes down to two things. Clyde Edwards Hilaire not

947
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:02,279
Speaker 2: playing or his mobility is just not there and he's

948
00:42:02,320 --> 00:42:05,399
Speaker 2: not you know, one for this game, and a clean

949
00:42:05,520 --> 00:42:07,520
Speaker 2: Jalen arts box score. You get those two things. Oh,

950
00:42:07,560 --> 00:42:08,920
Speaker 2: you's going to cover this game and I have a

951
00:42:09,000 --> 00:42:09,680
Speaker 2: chance to compete.

952
00:42:09,960 --> 00:42:11,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean yeah. The other thing is why I

953
00:42:11,960 --> 00:42:14,719
Speaker 1: make this total sixty nine. But if you have some

954
00:42:14,840 --> 00:42:17,400
Speaker 1: injuries at backs, you don't have Perkins. If any of

955
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,960
Speaker 1: these teams get up big, there's going to be just there.

956
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 1: Other team's going to go fast and you're just gonna

957
00:42:22,040 --> 00:42:24,520
Speaker 1: have more points. So I think that, but with all

958
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:27,799
Speaker 1: it especially if Hilaire's out, like you might get more

959
00:42:27,880 --> 00:42:30,960
Speaker 1: passing than normal with all with all of these injuries.

960
00:42:31,000 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 1: And then if you look at with how much these

961
00:42:33,239 --> 00:42:35,960
Speaker 1: teams pass. I just keep going back to this, Like

962
00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:39,359
Speaker 1: that Oklahoma LSU game, It'll be a perfect live betting game.

963
00:42:39,400 --> 00:42:43,439
Speaker 1: If LSU is up fourteen seventeen twenty, there's no reason

964
00:42:43,520 --> 00:42:46,959
Speaker 1: why Oklahoma, you know, can't put a touchdown on the board.

965
00:42:47,360 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 1: You could buy some back. Yeah. The key thing to

966
00:42:50,000 --> 00:42:52,080
Speaker 1: watch for me is how big of a game does

967
00:42:52,160 --> 00:42:55,000
Speaker 1: LAMB have against the LSU defense and how much does

968
00:42:55,040 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 1: a healthier Delpit mean? Right? So the lc defense overall, right,

969
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,680
Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty second defending past explosiveness, but that

970
00:43:01,840 --> 00:43:03,839
Speaker 1: number their defense looked a lot better on the back

971
00:43:03,960 --> 00:43:05,920
Speaker 1: end with a healthier Delpit towards the end of the year.

972
00:43:06,239 --> 00:43:10,960
Speaker 1: But you could see Lamb have just a monster day here.

973
00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:13,360
Speaker 1: That's the matchup I'm looking forward to watching.

974
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:15,840
Speaker 2: Yeah, And I think I actually think Jalen Hurts is

975
00:43:15,880 --> 00:43:17,839
Speaker 2: going to have a twenty five to thirty carry day two.

976
00:43:18,160 --> 00:43:20,600
Speaker 2: If Ceedee Lamb can't get open, you're gonna see Hurts

977
00:43:20,680 --> 00:43:23,360
Speaker 2: running with the ball quite a lot. So it's going

978
00:43:23,440 --> 00:43:24,399
Speaker 2: to be an interesting game.

979
00:43:24,719 --> 00:43:28,239
Speaker 1: Oklahoma more so than LSU, at least initially, will have

980
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:31,120
Speaker 1: to call this aggressively instead of punting. You know, on

981
00:43:31,200 --> 00:43:33,239
Speaker 1: a situation where you might normally punt, you got to go.

982
00:43:33,760 --> 00:43:35,960
Speaker 1: You got to keep up. There's two reliable field goal

983
00:43:36,080 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 1: kickers here, but hey, instead of a field goal, we

984
00:43:38,120 --> 00:43:40,320
Speaker 1: got to go for it. So that could impact the

985
00:43:40,400 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 1: total as well. LSU doesn't punt it well, but I

986
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:45,360
Speaker 1: don't think that matters one bit. I was looking at

987
00:43:45,360 --> 00:43:46,719
Speaker 1: their punny numbers and like, why am I looking at

988
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:47,800
Speaker 1: LSU's punning numbers?

989
00:43:48,840 --> 00:43:50,399
Speaker 2: How many punts do they have this year?

990
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:50,799
Speaker 1: Five?

991
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:51,480
Speaker 2: Yeah?

992
00:43:51,560 --> 00:43:53,440
Speaker 1: All right, so make sure you check out the preview

993
00:43:53,440 --> 00:43:55,640
Speaker 1: we have of that case. We'll have that covered from

994
00:43:55,880 --> 00:43:56,560
Speaker 1: every angle.

995
00:43:57,000 --> 00:43:58,640
Speaker 2: And you know, there was an opportunity to take tickets

996
00:43:58,680 --> 00:44:00,640
Speaker 2: to go to our next game here, claims Ohio State.

997
00:44:00,680 --> 00:44:03,279
Speaker 2: But the problem with attending these games live is if

998
00:44:03,320 --> 00:44:05,279
Speaker 2: I go to Clemson, Ohio State, that puts me at

999
00:44:05,320 --> 00:44:07,920
Speaker 2: the mercy of not watching ou LSU, and that's just

1000
00:44:08,000 --> 00:44:08,759
Speaker 2: not going to happen, right.

1001
00:44:09,040 --> 00:44:11,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, my girl got surprised with tickets to go to

1002
00:44:11,719 --> 00:44:14,520
Speaker 1: Naples early for New Years and on Saturday night, and

1003
00:44:14,640 --> 00:44:17,879
Speaker 1: I said sorry, Babe, you're flying by yourself. I'll get

1004
00:44:18,040 --> 00:44:20,440
Speaker 1: tickets on my own and bet you for the diggings

1005
00:44:20,480 --> 00:44:23,200
Speaker 1: you got me because I also can't fly on Sunday,

1006
00:44:23,480 --> 00:44:25,319
Speaker 1: so I'll be flying out for a couple of days

1007
00:44:25,640 --> 00:44:29,759
Speaker 1: on Monday. Sorry, Beabe, Love you though. Let's move on

1008
00:44:29,840 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 1: to Clemson Ohio State. This is the blockbuster. This feels

1009
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:38,040
Speaker 1: like a national championship game eight pm Eastern on Saturday night,

1010
00:44:38,760 --> 00:44:43,360
Speaker 1: ESPN and Glendale at University of Phoenix Stadium. As line's

1011
00:44:43,360 --> 00:44:46,279
Speaker 1: sitting right, just hanging out right around Clemson minus two

1012
00:44:46,400 --> 00:44:50,120
Speaker 1: over under sixty three. When I tweeted out my numbers,

1013
00:44:50,160 --> 00:44:54,200
Speaker 1: I made this Clemson minus one ish over under fifty

1014
00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:57,120
Speaker 1: nine ish. I know you made the total higher. I'm

1015
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:58,840
Speaker 1: thinking about playing the under. I don't know if I

1016
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:00,680
Speaker 1: want to do with these two teams, but I think

1017
00:45:00,760 --> 00:45:02,160
Speaker 1: that both are going to have to run the ball

1018
00:45:02,280 --> 00:45:04,200
Speaker 1: because if you look at any of Clemson's numbers beside

1019
00:45:04,200 --> 00:45:06,120
Speaker 1: special teams, so Ohio State is a huge advantage in

1020
00:45:06,160 --> 00:45:08,279
Speaker 1: special teams, especially when they punt it. But you know

1021
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:09,640
Speaker 1: how much are they going to punt? I don't know,

1022
00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:13,000
Speaker 1: but better field goal kicker just overall, better special teams.

1023
00:45:13,320 --> 00:45:15,680
Speaker 1: But when let's focus more on the offensive defensive side

1024
00:45:15,680 --> 00:45:17,919
Speaker 1: of the wall. If you look at Clemson up and down,

1025
00:45:18,280 --> 00:45:22,200
Speaker 1: you know, their advanced metrics, their regular metrics, relative opponents,

1026
00:45:22,280 --> 00:45:25,640
Speaker 1: like everything there. It's elite everywhere. Right, you can't really

1027
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:28,759
Speaker 1: find it in weaknesses. But you have to determine how

1028
00:45:29,600 --> 00:45:31,719
Speaker 1: elite are they because of their schedule, right, they had

1029
00:45:31,760 --> 00:45:35,320
Speaker 1: the sixty six toughest schedule. Ohio States was first presum

1030
00:45:35,360 --> 00:45:38,279
Speaker 1: the nation. How good is Clemson? Now you have to

1031
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:39,680
Speaker 1: base a live of it on priors, and we know

1032
00:45:39,719 --> 00:45:41,480
Speaker 1: that they're really good last year, so I think that

1033
00:45:41,560 --> 00:45:44,000
Speaker 1: they are really good. But if they have some weakness,

1034
00:45:44,320 --> 00:45:46,720
Speaker 1: you know, it might not have been exposed with this schedule.

1035
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:49,040
Speaker 1: But I think that they're just solid across the board.

1036
00:45:49,280 --> 00:45:53,239
Speaker 1: Ohio State, meanwhile, you know they have two day a

1037
00:45:53,280 --> 00:45:56,000
Speaker 1: weakness last year and defending explosiveness that showed up again

1038
00:45:56,080 --> 00:46:00,680
Speaker 1: this year, particularly defending rush explosiveness. But you know, and

1039
00:46:00,719 --> 00:46:02,320
Speaker 1: there were one hundred and first in the country in

1040
00:46:02,400 --> 00:46:06,360
Speaker 1: that and Clemson certainly could take advantage and past six postness,

1041
00:46:06,400 --> 00:46:08,600
Speaker 1: they were a lot better this year seventeenth. But look

1042
00:46:08,640 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 1: at the schedule. What explosive passing offenses did they play?

1043
00:46:12,080 --> 00:46:15,320
Speaker 1: Not many, right, and you saw little signs of Michigan,

1044
00:46:15,400 --> 00:46:17,799
Speaker 1: but they played Michigan. You know, you saw Michigan move

1045
00:46:17,840 --> 00:46:20,879
Speaker 1: the ball, find some movement receivers downfield. So maybe there's

1046
00:46:20,880 --> 00:46:23,400
Speaker 1: still some issues in defending past expost in this and

1047
00:46:23,440 --> 00:46:25,360
Speaker 1: then the other week this SS on Ohio State. Is

1048
00:46:25,920 --> 00:46:29,080
Speaker 1: their offensive line slash field, holding the ball too long.

1049
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:32,360
Speaker 1: That's why they're one hundredth in sacrate. So just like Clemson,

1050
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:34,759
Speaker 1: o's elite across the board except those two areas where

1051
00:46:34,760 --> 00:46:36,680
Speaker 1: they're about one hundredth in the nation. Right. If you

1052
00:46:37,200 --> 00:46:39,080
Speaker 1: look at these charts we put out, the column makes

1053
00:46:39,360 --> 00:46:41,480
Speaker 1: it's all green, all green on both sides except for

1054
00:46:41,560 --> 00:46:45,000
Speaker 1: those two and look clubs, it's number three in sacarate.

1055
00:46:45,480 --> 00:46:47,600
Speaker 1: So and I said it all year, these are the

1056
00:46:47,640 --> 00:46:49,920
Speaker 1: two areas you have to watch, not necessarily for Ohio

1057
00:46:50,000 --> 00:46:53,160
Speaker 1: State during the regular season, but once they get to

1058
00:46:53,200 --> 00:46:55,440
Speaker 1: the postseason, is their team that can expose these two

1059
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:59,200
Speaker 1: weaknesses and that's where you have to look at. So

1060
00:46:59,440 --> 00:47:01,880
Speaker 1: it's really determining, Okay, is Clemson as a leade as

1061
00:47:01,880 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 1: their numbers and as a lead as they were last

1062
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:06,520
Speaker 1: year based on a really easy schedule. If you believe that,

1063
00:47:07,280 --> 00:47:11,360
Speaker 1: then Ohio State. They have two potential weaknesses that Clemson

1064
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:15,640
Speaker 1: can't exploit wild card special teams in Ohio State. That's

1065
00:47:15,680 --> 00:47:19,040
Speaker 1: kind of the high level cap from my perspective. What

1066
00:47:19,160 --> 00:47:19,640
Speaker 1: do you see here?

1067
00:47:20,320 --> 00:47:24,719
Speaker 2: Justin Fields had his media day on Christmas Eve and

1068
00:47:25,160 --> 00:47:27,680
Speaker 2: he said, I mean, he looked disappointed and upset and

1069
00:47:27,719 --> 00:47:29,799
Speaker 2: he said, I'm eight to eighty five percent with the knee.

1070
00:47:30,200 --> 00:47:32,279
Speaker 2: He said, I'm not. You know, my mobility isn't there

1071
00:47:32,440 --> 00:47:34,600
Speaker 2: like what I wanted to be inside the pocket. I

1072
00:47:34,680 --> 00:47:36,279
Speaker 2: think that he's not where he wants to be with

1073
00:47:36,320 --> 00:47:38,120
Speaker 2: the knee, and he's not going to be, you know,

1074
00:47:38,280 --> 00:47:40,600
Speaker 2: the total mobility that he needs inside the pocket to

1075
00:47:40,680 --> 00:47:43,600
Speaker 2: get out and extend plays. He may have to rely

1076
00:47:43,719 --> 00:47:45,600
Speaker 2: more on his arm, which is not a bad thing.

1077
00:47:45,719 --> 00:47:47,440
Speaker 2: He is a cannon for an arm and he's accurate.

1078
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:50,680
Speaker 2: Justin Fields is gonna have two different sized braces, one

1079
00:47:50,719 --> 00:47:53,239
Speaker 2: that he wore in previous two games, one bigger than

1080
00:47:53,239 --> 00:47:55,600
Speaker 2: the other. I'm just going to see what his pain

1081
00:47:55,719 --> 00:47:58,799
Speaker 2: level is, what his tolerance is. You know, the play

1082
00:47:58,840 --> 00:48:03,840
Speaker 2: action pass is what burned the Clemson secondary against North Carolina.

1083
00:48:04,280 --> 00:48:06,680
Speaker 2: The ability to hook in the secondary and then throw

1084
00:48:06,760 --> 00:48:08,839
Speaker 2: over the top is what I mean, if you look

1085
00:48:08,840 --> 00:48:11,080
Speaker 2: at all the highlight film from the North Carolina game,

1086
00:48:11,160 --> 00:48:13,680
Speaker 2: that's what killed Clemson. So you can expect the buck

1087
00:48:13,680 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 2: guys to keep their offensive identity where they're a top

1088
00:48:16,200 --> 00:48:18,359
Speaker 2: twenty in rush rate. They run the ball a lot,

1089
00:48:18,680 --> 00:48:21,240
Speaker 2: so you're gonna see a lot of JK. Dobbins handoffs

1090
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:24,359
Speaker 2: and they're gonna have timely play action because that play

1091
00:48:24,440 --> 00:48:27,320
Speaker 2: action pass ran by North Carolina and Sam Howe is

1092
00:48:27,360 --> 00:48:30,439
Speaker 2: what got Clemson in trouble. Now, is Clemson going to bite?

1093
00:48:31,239 --> 00:48:34,840
Speaker 2: You know, Isaiah Simmons, a linebacker for Clemson who's one

1094
00:48:34,880 --> 00:48:36,880
Speaker 2: of the best in the nation, who Arkansas should have had,

1095
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:38,800
Speaker 2: but we told him being Able told him, no, we

1096
00:48:38,840 --> 00:48:41,520
Speaker 2: don't want to give you a scholarship. Is going to

1097
00:48:41,560 --> 00:48:43,239
Speaker 2: have the ability to fill the gap on the line

1098
00:48:43,280 --> 00:48:45,520
Speaker 2: when JK. Dobbins is running, and the ability to drop

1099
00:48:45,560 --> 00:48:48,000
Speaker 2: back into pass coverage when Dobbins is in pass blocking mode.

1100
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:52,280
Speaker 2: Venable's ability to throw different looks and number of down linemen,

1101
00:48:52,640 --> 00:48:55,520
Speaker 2: number of blitzes. That's what he's going to try to

1102
00:48:55,560 --> 00:48:59,120
Speaker 2: confuse Justin Field's in passing situations. It's quite interesting to

1103
00:48:59,120 --> 00:49:01,240
Speaker 2: see what Ohio State is once they have a negative

1104
00:49:01,280 --> 00:49:03,799
Speaker 2: play like their efficiency falls off the table once they

1105
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:07,360
Speaker 2: have a negative play. Will JK. Dobbins get enough yards

1106
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,760
Speaker 2: to stay in standard downs instead of falling into passing downs?

1107
00:49:10,960 --> 00:49:11,840
Speaker 1: What about the havoc?

1108
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:14,440
Speaker 2: Will Clemson be able to get to justin Fields? The

1109
00:49:14,560 --> 00:49:17,879
Speaker 2: mobility of Fields really makes everything questionable for me because

1110
00:49:17,920 --> 00:49:19,680
Speaker 2: either it's going to be a handoff or it's going

1111
00:49:19,760 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 2: to be a play action pass, and it just seems

1112
00:49:21,680 --> 00:49:23,239
Speaker 2: like there's not going to be a lot of other

1113
00:49:23,440 --> 00:49:25,439
Speaker 2: I mean, the playbook may be cut in half because

1114
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:27,680
Speaker 2: Fields isn't able to get outside the pocket. You know,

1115
00:49:27,800 --> 00:49:29,920
Speaker 2: he's going to hold onto the ball, He's going to

1116
00:49:29,960 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 2: be able to check his progressions. I think he's going

1117
00:49:32,760 --> 00:49:35,279
Speaker 2: to get plenty of pressure, plenty of hurries. I think

1118
00:49:35,280 --> 00:49:37,680
Speaker 2: he's going to get sacked multiple times. I think Clemson's

1119
00:49:37,719 --> 00:49:39,040
Speaker 2: defense is going to have a ton of success. So

1120
00:49:39,080 --> 00:49:42,480
Speaker 2: you're taking the under there Clemson, you know, and Isaiah

1121
00:49:42,480 --> 00:49:43,439
Speaker 2: Simmons really is going.

1122
00:49:43,360 --> 00:49:44,040
Speaker 1: To be a big part of that.

1123
00:49:44,200 --> 00:49:45,560
Speaker 2: On the flip side of the ball, I mean, Stuck

1124
00:49:45,640 --> 00:49:47,799
Speaker 2: mentioned it. What is Clemson going to do? Let's start

1125
00:49:47,800 --> 00:49:49,239
Speaker 2: off with Chase Young. What is Clem's going to do

1126
00:49:49,280 --> 00:49:51,800
Speaker 2: with Chase Young? It's quite interesting that Jackson Carmine is

1127
00:49:51,840 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 2: the offensive tackle that's Spern urban Meyer and Ohio State

1128
00:49:54,840 --> 00:49:56,960
Speaker 2: in recruiting, like on the very last day, it's side

1129
00:49:56,960 --> 00:49:59,520
Speaker 2: of the Clemson Now he's the guy that's responsible for

1130
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:01,360
Speaker 2: taking care of Chase Young. But if you look at

1131
00:50:01,400 --> 00:50:03,960
Speaker 2: Chase Young the last two games against Michigan Wisconsin, no sacks,

1132
00:50:04,400 --> 00:50:06,040
Speaker 2: two hurries, I think, I mean, he was a non

1133
00:50:06,120 --> 00:50:09,200
Speaker 2: factor in their final two games. Michigan and Wisconsin started

1134
00:50:09,280 --> 00:50:12,120
Speaker 2: using double teams. He was using chip blocks from tight

1135
00:50:12,239 --> 00:50:14,000
Speaker 2: ends and guards who were trying to get down fields

1136
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 2: to other targets, and I think that really they set

1137
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:18,880
Speaker 2: the template for what Cleinson is going to have to

1138
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:20,839
Speaker 2: do to keep Chase Young. They're going to move Chase

1139
00:50:20,920 --> 00:50:24,279
Speaker 2: on around, of course, but you know, Clemson has the

1140
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:27,200
Speaker 2: number one offensive line according to Sports Source Analytics, their

1141
00:50:27,280 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 2: number one in efficiency. They only allow one sack per game,

1142
00:50:30,800 --> 00:50:32,680
Speaker 2: and when those sacks come, they come from the outside.

1143
00:50:33,040 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 2: So that really led me to think that Trevor Lawrence

1144
00:50:36,120 --> 00:50:38,759
Speaker 2: is going to have a monster rushing day. I mean,

1145
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:40,480
Speaker 2: he has four under and seven yards on the season,

1146
00:50:41,719 --> 00:50:44,600
Speaker 2: you know, multiple touchdowns and whether it's running the rpo

1147
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:46,480
Speaker 2: or stepping up in the pocket to get away from

1148
00:50:46,520 --> 00:50:48,759
Speaker 2: outside edge pressure. I think Trevor Lawrence is going to

1149
00:50:48,800 --> 00:50:50,520
Speaker 2: have a huge day running the ball. I think Travis

1150
00:50:50,600 --> 00:50:53,040
Speaker 2: ctn is going to have a monster day running the ball.

1151
00:50:53,120 --> 00:50:56,520
Speaker 2: Listen to this stat. Ohio State mistackles their first ten

1152
00:50:56,600 --> 00:50:59,959
Speaker 2: games only six percent of the time first ten games.

1153
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:04,600
Speaker 2: Their last three games against Penn State, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio

1154
00:51:04,719 --> 00:51:07,600
Speaker 2: State fell from six percent in miss tackles to over

1155
00:51:07,760 --> 00:51:11,320
Speaker 2: twenty percent miss tackles. Travis y ten is the number

1156
00:51:11,400 --> 00:51:14,480
Speaker 2: one back in the nation at yards after contact. He

1157
00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:17,360
Speaker 2: was just thirty yards shy of one thousand. Travis Eten

1158
00:51:17,440 --> 00:51:19,279
Speaker 2: is going to have a huge day if Ohio State

1159
00:51:19,320 --> 00:51:22,040
Speaker 2: does not remedy this mistackle problem that they've had the

1160
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:24,279
Speaker 2: last three games. I think Trevor Lawrence is gonna have

1161
00:51:24,280 --> 00:51:26,320
Speaker 2: a huge day on the ground. I think Travis Eten

1162
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:27,680
Speaker 2: is going to have a huge day on the ground.

1163
00:51:28,320 --> 00:51:32,600
Speaker 2: And you know, I respect Ohio State's secondary. They're huge,

1164
00:51:32,880 --> 00:51:36,200
Speaker 2: they're athletic, they're long. They can match up with Justin Ross,

1165
00:51:36,320 --> 00:51:38,960
Speaker 2: they can match up with t Higgins. So unless Trevor

1166
00:51:39,000 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 2: Lawrence is getting down to his third fourth, you know,

1167
00:51:42,680 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 2: fifth options on passing plays or he's taking off running.

1168
00:51:46,440 --> 00:51:48,080
Speaker 2: I think it's a really good matchup to see how

1169
00:51:48,080 --> 00:51:50,839
Speaker 2: good Justin Ross and t Higgins can go. But I'm

1170
00:51:50,880 --> 00:51:52,920
Speaker 2: taking Clemson in this game. I don't think it's going

1171
00:51:52,960 --> 00:51:55,719
Speaker 2: to be a blowout like twenty sixteen. It really comes

1172
00:51:55,800 --> 00:51:58,800
Speaker 2: down to the mobility of the quarterbacks. Justin Fields is

1173
00:51:58,880 --> 00:52:01,160
Speaker 2: just not there to be able to make plays happen

1174
00:52:01,239 --> 00:52:04,240
Speaker 2: outside the pocket. I think his his play action passing

1175
00:52:04,360 --> 00:52:06,440
Speaker 2: is going to be well scouted. And on the other side,

1176
00:52:06,680 --> 00:52:08,080
Speaker 2: Trevor Lawrence is going to be able to take off

1177
00:52:08,080 --> 00:52:10,040
Speaker 2: whenever he wants step up in the pocket take off.

1178
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:15,640
Speaker 2: The kid has NFL mechanics, he has NFL elusiveness, pocket awareness.

1179
00:52:16,000 --> 00:52:17,720
Speaker 2: I think that's all going to be on display against

1180
00:52:17,719 --> 00:52:19,960
Speaker 2: an excellent house date Front seven. In the end, I'm

1181
00:52:19,960 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 2: taking Clemson. As we talk, one of the sharpest books

1182
00:52:22,560 --> 00:52:24,000
Speaker 2: out there drops the number to one and a half.

1183
00:52:24,719 --> 00:52:26,360
Speaker 1: And this is what I was hinting out earlier potential

1184
00:52:26,400 --> 00:52:28,200
Speaker 1: game scripts, because I agree with a lot of what

1185
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:30,640
Speaker 1: you said. So I actually think that you're going to

1186
00:52:30,680 --> 00:52:34,480
Speaker 1: see these teams run it more than they have, you know,

1187
00:52:35,160 --> 00:52:37,600
Speaker 1: when the games are competitive early on, and I actually

1188
00:52:37,680 --> 00:52:40,719
Speaker 1: think that both teams might be able to find a

1189
00:52:40,760 --> 00:52:44,120
Speaker 1: little bit of success on the ground, and Clemson, I think,

1190
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:46,080
Speaker 1: is just going to look field totally onto the ball

1191
00:52:46,120 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 1: and that offensive line giving up a little bit of pressure,

1192
00:52:48,280 --> 00:52:49,839
Speaker 1: but a lot of it's field tougging on the ball

1193
00:52:50,120 --> 00:52:51,919
Speaker 1: that has been an issue that just they haven't played

1194
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:53,640
Speaker 1: a team that's going to exploit it. And all that

1195
00:52:53,760 --> 00:52:55,840
Speaker 1: I think we'll do is Clemson'll get to him a

1196
00:52:55,880 --> 00:52:59,040
Speaker 1: couple of times. It'll kill a couple drives that Ohio

1197
00:52:59,120 --> 00:53:02,719
Speaker 1: State and had killed against Big ten competition this year.

1198
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:05,439
Speaker 1: That'll kill a couple of drives. I stay out the punt.

1199
00:53:05,600 --> 00:53:08,840
Speaker 1: Guess what great punter who can vomit flip a field.

1200
00:53:09,120 --> 00:53:11,960
Speaker 1: So all these things have me saying, Okay, maybe I

1201
00:53:12,040 --> 00:53:14,520
Speaker 1: do want to play. You know, I respect both quarterbacks,

1202
00:53:14,560 --> 00:53:16,640
Speaker 1: both offenses, but I think both teams are going to

1203
00:53:16,719 --> 00:53:18,440
Speaker 1: run it a little more. And I think that the

1204
00:53:18,520 --> 00:53:21,480
Speaker 1: Clemson defense can have some success here in getting to

1205
00:53:21,560 --> 00:53:24,759
Speaker 1: the quarterback, especially on passing downs. So that's what has

1206
00:53:24,840 --> 00:53:27,360
Speaker 1: been leaning to an under. And I actually make it

1207
00:53:27,560 --> 00:53:29,839
Speaker 1: the number lower than what it is, but you make

1208
00:53:29,880 --> 00:53:31,399
Speaker 1: the total a little higher, right.

1209
00:53:31,600 --> 00:53:34,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, I do, And I look at it now, I

1210
00:53:34,080 --> 00:53:38,359
Speaker 2: make it seventy but I mean this, I can't say

1211
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:41,960
Speaker 2: that Clemson has looked at a secondary this this long

1212
00:53:42,120 --> 00:53:44,600
Speaker 2: and large or this fast. And I can't say that

1213
00:53:44,680 --> 00:53:47,799
Speaker 2: Ohio State has seen a defense like this before. Your

1214
00:53:47,840 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 2: projections on totals are based upon yards per play, rush rate,

1215
00:53:52,320 --> 00:53:55,840
Speaker 2: passing rate, you know, and that's it's just a mathematical projection.

1216
00:53:56,239 --> 00:53:56,560
Speaker 1: Pace.

1217
00:53:57,040 --> 00:54:00,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, pace of play, But you don't it doesn't take

1218
00:54:00,640 --> 00:54:03,600
Speaker 2: into account that, you know, Ihowa State secondary will be

1219
00:54:03,640 --> 00:54:05,600
Speaker 2: the biggest and fastest one that Clemson has taken on

1220
00:54:05,680 --> 00:54:07,880
Speaker 2: all season. I mean, Trevor Lawrence is going to have

1221
00:54:07,960 --> 00:54:11,360
Speaker 2: to have highlight reel NFL Draft highlight reel day to

1222
00:54:11,440 --> 00:54:12,800
Speaker 2: get a downfield on these guys.

1223
00:54:13,239 --> 00:54:14,560
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I mean we'll have to. I'll have to

1224
00:54:14,640 --> 00:54:17,319
Speaker 1: look at your your numbers because we were off by

1225
00:54:17,440 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 1: ten points there. It's a lot, all right.

1226
00:54:20,800 --> 00:54:22,680
Speaker 2: You know I'm biased against Clemson though it's like a

1227
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:23,879
Speaker 2: three four year running thing.

1228
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:27,360
Speaker 1: So yeah, that's true. And then any thoughts on potential

1229
00:54:27,520 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 1: live betting this game.

1230
00:54:29,120 --> 00:54:30,839
Speaker 2: I think there's going to be a time to hit

1231
00:54:30,880 --> 00:54:32,479
Speaker 2: a live under. I think it's going to get above

1232
00:54:32,520 --> 00:54:34,520
Speaker 2: sixty three. I think it will get up to seventy

1233
00:54:34,520 --> 00:54:36,320
Speaker 2: at some point. I mean a flurry of points. I

1234
00:54:36,360 --> 00:54:38,640
Speaker 2: think the game is going to come into flurry of points.

1235
00:54:39,080 --> 00:54:41,480
Speaker 2: The Mistackles thing for Ohio State makes me think that

1236
00:54:41,680 --> 00:54:43,560
Speaker 2: traves Etn is going to be able to break one off.

1237
00:54:43,640 --> 00:54:46,560
Speaker 2: We know he's capable of doing that. I think the

1238
00:54:46,680 --> 00:54:49,640
Speaker 2: flow of the game is not going to be points, points,

1239
00:54:49,680 --> 00:54:52,680
Speaker 2: points from from I think o ULSU could be just

1240
00:54:52,840 --> 00:54:56,279
Speaker 2: points from start to finish. Clemson Ohio State. I think

1241
00:54:56,320 --> 00:54:58,440
Speaker 2: it's going to come in bunches. These are the best

1242
00:54:58,880 --> 00:55:02,879
Speaker 2: coaches assistance coordinators in call of college football. They will

1243
00:55:02,920 --> 00:55:05,840
Speaker 2: make adjustments drive to drive, not half to half, not

1244
00:55:06,000 --> 00:55:08,319
Speaker 2: quarter to quarter. They will make adjustments drive and drive.

1245
00:55:08,360 --> 00:55:11,080
Speaker 2: I think points will come, points will stop, so live

1246
00:55:11,120 --> 00:55:11,800
Speaker 2: bet accordingly.

1247
00:55:12,160 --> 00:55:14,200
Speaker 1: So let's move on before we get out of here,

1248
00:55:15,160 --> 00:55:16,040
Speaker 1: let's go three and.

1249
00:55:16,080 --> 00:55:21,240
Speaker 2: Out two great, Let's make it a quick three and out.

1250
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:26,759
Speaker 1: For first down. Let's talk Monday football. We have some

1251
00:55:26,880 --> 00:55:31,880
Speaker 1: Monday Day football starting at twelve thirty Easter between Western

1252
00:55:31,960 --> 00:55:36,520
Speaker 1: Kentucky and Western Michigan is in Dallas twelve thirty on ESPN.

1253
00:55:36,640 --> 00:55:40,440
Speaker 1: Western Kentucky is length three and a half here over

1254
00:55:40,520 --> 00:55:42,080
Speaker 1: under fifty four and a half. What do you see here?

1255
00:55:42,440 --> 00:55:45,160
Speaker 2: Yeah, Tyson Helton Coach Conference to USADAD Coach of the

1256
00:55:45,239 --> 00:55:48,239
Speaker 2: Year did a great job at Western Kentucky, and Western

1257
00:55:48,320 --> 00:55:50,319
Speaker 2: Michigan has a lot of motivation, or at least Lester,

1258
00:55:50,400 --> 00:55:52,319
Speaker 2: their head coach, says they do because they didn't make

1259
00:55:52,360 --> 00:55:54,800
Speaker 2: the MAC Championship Game. They have a senior class that

1260
00:55:54,880 --> 00:55:57,520
Speaker 2: has lost three bowl games, so there should be motivation

1261
00:55:57,600 --> 00:55:59,239
Speaker 2: on both sides. I don't think that's going to play

1262
00:55:59,280 --> 00:56:02,239
Speaker 2: a factor. Western Kentucky's outside the top one hundred and

1263
00:56:02,280 --> 00:56:05,200
Speaker 2: explosiveness and finishing drives. There's just not a lot of

1264
00:56:05,239 --> 00:56:08,319
Speaker 2: points coming out of the Hilltoppers. They're mostly a defensive team.

1265
00:56:08,360 --> 00:56:11,120
Speaker 2: They're eighth in defensive passing success rate, and that's going

1266
00:56:11,200 --> 00:56:14,960
Speaker 2: to lock down quarterback John with Sink in Western Michigan's offense. So,

1267
00:56:15,600 --> 00:56:19,080
Speaker 2: you know, with with Western Kentucky being top twenty defensively

1268
00:56:19,160 --> 00:56:22,480
Speaker 2: in finishing drives and considering the fact that they're extremely

1269
00:56:22,640 --> 00:56:25,440
Speaker 2: slow paced, they're ninety ninth and seconds per play, Western

1270
00:56:25,520 --> 00:56:28,440
Speaker 2: Michigan is sixty eighth and seconds per play. And if

1271
00:56:28,800 --> 00:56:30,680
Speaker 2: you go and look at Western Michigan, you know their

1272
00:56:30,719 --> 00:56:32,919
Speaker 2: ninety first and red zone scoring percentage. I just don't

1273
00:56:32,920 --> 00:56:35,359
Speaker 2: see a lot of points here. Whatsoever. Both teams are

1274
00:56:35,600 --> 00:56:39,640
Speaker 2: absolutely terrible at field goal efficiency. Western Kentucky's one hundred

1275
00:56:39,640 --> 00:56:41,640
Speaker 2: and ten, Western Michigan one hundred and twenty nine. These

1276
00:56:41,680 --> 00:56:44,680
Speaker 2: teams can't kick field goals whatsoever. They can't finish once

1277
00:56:44,719 --> 00:56:46,879
Speaker 2: they cross the forty yard line. The pace of play

1278
00:56:46,960 --> 00:56:48,960
Speaker 2: is going to be really slow. I like the under here.

1279
00:56:49,239 --> 00:56:52,439
Speaker 1: Yeah. Western Michigan's special teams are horrendous. Just a MAC

1280
00:56:52,480 --> 00:56:54,400
Speaker 1: special just some MAC special teams. I mean it's but

1281
00:56:54,480 --> 00:56:57,759
Speaker 1: maybe a bottom five special teams in the nation. I

1282
00:56:58,160 --> 00:57:00,680
Speaker 1: lean Western Kentucky here if I can get the three,

1283
00:57:01,040 --> 00:57:03,319
Speaker 1: which is what I'm waiting for. If it doesn't get

1284
00:57:03,360 --> 00:57:04,920
Speaker 1: the three, I might have looked at this live or

1285
00:57:05,000 --> 00:57:07,720
Speaker 1: pass on it. All right, let's move on Monday afternoon.

1286
00:57:07,760 --> 00:57:10,359
Speaker 1: We have two games to kick at four Eastern Mississippi

1287
00:57:10,400 --> 00:57:13,239
Speaker 1: State minus four and a half against Louisville over under

1288
00:57:14,200 --> 00:57:17,720
Speaker 1: sixty three and a half. This is in Nashville. What

1289
00:57:17,800 --> 00:57:20,040
Speaker 1: do you see here with Mississippi State Louisville key injury

1290
00:57:20,160 --> 00:57:23,200
Speaker 1: or keys sitting out offensive line of on Louisville. And

1291
00:57:23,200 --> 00:57:25,280
Speaker 1: when I first look at is Mississippi State just handed

1292
00:57:25,360 --> 00:57:27,760
Speaker 1: offense score at will against his Louisville defense.

1293
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:30,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love Missisippi State in this game. This matchup

1294
00:57:30,720 --> 00:57:32,600
Speaker 2: for me rings Mississippi State all day. And I think

1295
00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:35,520
Speaker 2: what people don't realize is that Joe Moorehead's been dealing

1296
00:57:35,640 --> 00:57:37,720
Speaker 2: with the fact that he had to replace half his

1297
00:57:37,800 --> 00:57:39,840
Speaker 2: staff at the beginning of the season because they all left,

1298
00:57:40,160 --> 00:57:43,120
Speaker 2: and the fact that he had multiple players, a large

1299
00:57:43,160 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 2: number of players on the roster had an eight game

1300
00:57:44,920 --> 00:57:47,880
Speaker 2: suspension and he's had to cascade that over the entire schedule.

1301
00:57:48,040 --> 00:57:52,880
Speaker 2: He's almost never had an entire full roster the team available.

1302
00:57:53,080 --> 00:57:56,280
Speaker 2: You know, they do lose cornerback Camera Dancellar. He's declared

1303
00:57:56,280 --> 00:57:58,760
Speaker 2: for the NFL Draft. He will be playing in this game.

1304
00:57:59,000 --> 00:58:01,760
Speaker 2: But running back Highland Hill has declared for NFL Draft,

1305
00:58:01,800 --> 00:58:03,760
Speaker 2: but he will play in this game. He's looking to

1306
00:58:03,800 --> 00:58:06,920
Speaker 2: break the Cowbell single season leading rusher all time record.

1307
00:58:07,240 --> 00:58:09,320
Speaker 2: I don't think the absence of dance Lur or cornerback

1308
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:11,840
Speaker 2: is going to be that big because Louisville's one of

1309
00:58:11,880 --> 00:58:14,840
Speaker 2: the most rush heavy offenses in all of college football.

1310
00:58:14,880 --> 00:58:17,760
Speaker 2: They're eleventh and run rate, and even in passing downs,

1311
00:58:17,760 --> 00:58:19,520
Speaker 2: that's all they're trying to do is run the ball,

1312
00:58:19,640 --> 00:58:21,480
Speaker 2: and that's just been a reflection of the quarterbacks that

1313
00:58:21,520 --> 00:58:23,800
Speaker 2: Louisville has had. The Cardinals are going to be without

1314
00:58:24,280 --> 00:58:27,160
Speaker 2: their tackle McKee Becton, and I think that that is

1315
00:58:27,480 --> 00:58:29,760
Speaker 2: the biggest thing that people aren't talking about here. He's

1316
00:58:29,840 --> 00:58:33,040
Speaker 2: first team All acc offensive tackle. He is considered the

1317
00:58:33,160 --> 00:58:35,240
Speaker 2: best run blocker in the nation, and he will not

1318
00:58:35,360 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 2: be there. It's a huge loss for Louisville on the

1319
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:40,360
Speaker 2: offensive line. It's going to affect how they run their offense.

1320
00:58:40,440 --> 00:58:42,160
Speaker 2: It's going to affect how many points they put up

1321
00:58:42,200 --> 00:58:44,840
Speaker 2: on the board. The Mississippi State team is at full strength,

1322
00:58:45,120 --> 00:58:47,600
Speaker 2: they'll dominate the clock with Kylon Hill and an offense

1323
00:58:47,640 --> 00:58:50,080
Speaker 2: that's top ten in lineyards and top twenty five and

1324
00:58:50,120 --> 00:58:53,160
Speaker 2: finishing drives. Give me Mississippi State all day. Yeah.

1325
00:58:53,280 --> 00:58:56,000
Speaker 1: And both of these teams are actually slow. They play slow.

1326
00:58:56,080 --> 00:58:58,200
Speaker 1: We might not ticket with Louisville, but Missippi State's is

1327
00:58:58,240 --> 00:59:02,080
Speaker 1: an absolute snail both but both finish strives very successfully

1328
00:59:02,120 --> 00:59:04,960
Speaker 1: against defenses that don't really stop posing offenses what they

1329
00:59:05,000 --> 00:59:06,480
Speaker 1: get in the red zone. But you're right, the Missippi

1330
00:59:06,480 --> 00:59:09,120
Speaker 1: State defense, their season long numbers are probably you probably

1331
00:59:09,120 --> 00:59:11,040
Speaker 1: can't take a look at them. You even saw that

1332
00:59:11,080 --> 00:59:13,480
Speaker 1: when they played in the Egg Bowl. Their defense looked

1333
00:59:13,520 --> 00:59:15,160
Speaker 1: a lot better against Ole Miss. They held them the

1334
00:59:15,200 --> 00:59:19,200
Speaker 1: twenty points. All right, So let's move on to the

1335
00:59:19,240 --> 00:59:22,400
Speaker 1: other game at four Illinois California Col's minus six over

1336
00:59:22,560 --> 00:59:25,600
Speaker 1: under forty four. I believe there's a sit at forty

1337
00:59:25,640 --> 00:59:28,400
Speaker 1: three now Cals minus six and a half. This gives

1338
00:59:28,440 --> 00:59:30,680
Speaker 1: it four Eastern on Fox and Santa Clair. What do

1339
00:59:30,760 --> 00:59:31,280
Speaker 1: you see here?

1340
00:59:31,600 --> 00:59:33,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean Illinois. I don't know how you can

1341
00:59:33,360 --> 00:59:35,440
Speaker 2: get behind a team that always has a postgame win

1342
00:59:35,520 --> 00:59:38,400
Speaker 2: expectancy below fifty percent when they win games, especially the

1343
00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:40,920
Speaker 2: what they pulled off against the Spartans trailing thirty one

1344
00:59:41,000 --> 00:59:43,200
Speaker 2: ten going into the fourth. Cal had a perfect season

1345
00:59:43,240 --> 00:59:45,360
Speaker 2: and through September and then you know they had an

1346
00:59:45,400 --> 00:59:47,680
Speaker 2: injury to Garber's and you know he was big for

1347
00:59:47,760 --> 00:59:49,360
Speaker 2: the team this year because they weren't turning the ball

1348
00:59:49,440 --> 00:59:52,320
Speaker 2: over despite the fact that Cow's defense wasn't afficient as

1349
00:59:52,360 --> 00:59:55,040
Speaker 2: it was last year. There's so many suspensions in this

1350
00:59:55,120 --> 00:59:58,000
Speaker 2: game on the col side. Defensively, they have three starters

1351
00:59:58,040 --> 01:00:01,120
Speaker 2: out that account you know, that account for ten passes, defense,

1352
01:00:01,200 --> 01:00:04,720
Speaker 2: multiple interceptions, and force fumbles. They had a suspension there too,

1353
01:00:04,800 --> 01:00:07,120
Speaker 2: But Illinois pace the play is top twenty five, and

1354
01:00:07,240 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 2: I expect Brandon Peters to go at the cow secondary

1355
01:00:09,960 --> 01:00:12,840
Speaker 2: immediately in standard downs because of those suspensions. And then

1356
01:00:12,880 --> 01:00:14,840
Speaker 2: on the offensive side for Cal, they was suspended wide

1357
01:00:14,880 --> 01:00:17,440
Speaker 2: receiver Jordan Duncan. He was second team in receiving yards.

1358
01:00:17,560 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 2: You know, Illinois defense gave up forty four passes over

1359
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:23,080
Speaker 2: twenty plus yards. They weren't ninety third against the explosive pass.

1360
01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:26,680
Speaker 2: And Garber's has There's eight other wide receivers you know

1361
01:00:26,800 --> 01:00:29,200
Speaker 2: in the stat box that have at least ten receptions.

1362
01:00:29,240 --> 01:00:31,000
Speaker 2: So I think the loss of Duncan at wide receiver

1363
01:00:31,160 --> 01:00:33,040
Speaker 2: is not going to be you know, missed that much.

1364
01:00:33,320 --> 01:00:34,680
Speaker 2: I'm going to take the over. I mean, these are

1365
01:00:34,720 --> 01:00:37,600
Speaker 2: two defenses that are terrible defending the explosive pass. We've

1366
01:00:37,600 --> 01:00:40,200
Speaker 2: got plenty of players missing for Cal in the back seven.

1367
01:00:40,760 --> 01:00:42,960
Speaker 2: I think you wouldn't think it with Cal, but I

1368
01:00:43,000 --> 01:00:44,080
Speaker 2: think this screams points.

1369
01:00:44,480 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, I wanted Cal. I thought this line was going

1370
01:00:46,200 --> 01:00:48,800
Speaker 1: to open a lot lower. I don't see any value

1371
01:00:48,840 --> 01:00:51,080
Speaker 1: with them now. I might take them live. The actually

1372
01:00:51,120 --> 01:00:53,520
Speaker 1: opened a really sharp number right where I had it.

1373
01:00:53,800 --> 01:00:55,360
Speaker 1: I mean, is cal offense is a lot different with

1374
01:00:55,400 --> 01:00:57,160
Speaker 1: Garber's or were they six and zer W Garber started

1375
01:00:57,200 --> 01:01:00,640
Speaker 1: at quarterback this year. Yeah, so it's it's a different

1376
01:01:00,680 --> 01:01:03,920
Speaker 1: offense with him. Intact. There is Monday Night football. We're

1377
01:01:03,960 --> 01:01:07,080
Speaker 1: going to cover that on Sunday's pod. That'll be out

1378
01:01:07,120 --> 01:01:10,600
Speaker 1: on Monday morning between Florida and Virginia. We have to

1379
01:01:10,680 --> 01:01:12,919
Speaker 1: move on to second down here, and then second down,

1380
01:01:13,440 --> 01:01:16,439
Speaker 1: let's talk the Friday Afternoon Bowls. Just an updated thought

1381
01:01:16,480 --> 01:01:18,640
Speaker 1: or two on the two games that we covered in

1382
01:01:18,760 --> 01:01:22,000
Speaker 1: the previous pod. Michigan State Wake Forest Michigan State's now

1383
01:01:22,040 --> 01:01:24,400
Speaker 1: four point favorite over under fifty and then you have

1384
01:01:24,520 --> 01:01:28,360
Speaker 1: UNC Temple. UNC's out to six over under fifty three.

1385
01:01:28,400 --> 01:01:29,520
Speaker 1: Any updated thoughts here.

1386
01:01:29,720 --> 01:01:33,680
Speaker 2: Now Scotti, Washington and Newman playing a quarterback for Wake Forest.

1387
01:01:33,720 --> 01:01:35,680
Speaker 2: I like them to cover the spread, especially at four.

1388
01:01:35,800 --> 01:01:37,720
Speaker 2: I think there's going to be more points than what

1389
01:01:37,880 --> 01:01:40,720
Speaker 2: is projected. And I love North Carolina and the market's

1390
01:01:40,760 --> 01:01:43,080
Speaker 2: starting to reflect that they've jumped up to minus six now.

1391
01:01:43,160 --> 01:01:45,640
Speaker 2: But this is a play on team with North Carolina

1392
01:01:45,680 --> 01:01:46,640
Speaker 2: heading into twenty twenty.

1393
01:01:47,040 --> 01:01:49,320
Speaker 1: All right, But before we get out of here, third down.

1394
01:01:52,160 --> 01:01:57,040
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends, It's time for the

1395
01:01:57,240 --> 01:02:01,960
Speaker 1: money line parlay. Money line underdog parlay for the rest

1396
01:02:02,000 --> 01:02:05,600
Speaker 1: of all season. So your favorite money line underdog, who

1397
01:02:05,680 --> 01:02:06,000
Speaker 1: you got.

1398
01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:09,280
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take Florida State. I know it's crazy in

1399
01:02:09,320 --> 01:02:11,200
Speaker 2: the Sun Bowl to Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl, but

1400
01:02:11,960 --> 01:02:14,160
Speaker 2: with multiple players sitting on both sides, I think it

1401
01:02:14,200 --> 01:02:16,560
Speaker 2: comes down to the coordinators. And the coordinators for Florida

1402
01:02:16,600 --> 01:02:19,880
Speaker 2: State are going to be Kindlebrills, new Arkansas offensive coordinator

1403
01:02:20,040 --> 01:02:23,520
Speaker 2: and Harlan Barnett, who you know is a great defensive coordinator.

1404
01:02:23,960 --> 01:02:25,920
Speaker 2: I think that is the huge advantage for the Seminals

1405
01:02:25,960 --> 01:02:28,400
Speaker 2: in this game, and they're gonna make halftime adjustments to

1406
01:02:28,440 --> 01:02:28,880
Speaker 2: win this game.

1407
01:02:29,120 --> 01:02:32,480
Speaker 1: Tarazona State's leading rusher, you know, Vegamin and leading receiver

1408
01:02:32,880 --> 01:02:35,560
Speaker 1: are brand out for this game. So that's big and

1409
01:02:36,000 --> 01:02:38,280
Speaker 1: her Edwards. Every single game this year, it's just a

1410
01:02:38,320 --> 01:02:40,560
Speaker 1: one possession game, so this probably shouldn't be any different.

1411
01:02:40,560 --> 01:02:42,080
Speaker 1: I think Florida State wents too. I like that. I'm

1412
01:02:42,120 --> 01:02:43,919
Speaker 1: gonna go with the same one I went with last year.

1413
01:02:44,240 --> 01:02:46,640
Speaker 1: And in our favorite ball underdog money that parla which

1414
01:02:46,680 --> 01:02:49,240
Speaker 1: came through a guy who's a god on road of

1415
01:02:49,280 --> 01:02:51,479
Speaker 1: neutral fields, a guy who's a god against the spread

1416
01:02:51,480 --> 01:02:54,360
Speaker 1: as an underdog I'm going with Baylor again. I'm not

1417
01:02:54,400 --> 01:02:56,840
Speaker 1: sure how much Georgia will care here, and we'll touch

1418
01:02:56,880 --> 01:02:58,840
Speaker 1: on that game much more in future pods and on

1419
01:02:58,920 --> 01:03:01,880
Speaker 1: the preview. But thanks for listen, Thanks for joining me, Colin.

1420
01:03:02,240 --> 01:03:04,520
Speaker 1: We will be back, like I said on Monday morning,

1421
01:03:04,560 --> 01:03:07,040
Speaker 1: with a loaded podcast covering a ton of balls on

1422
01:03:07,160 --> 01:03:10,440
Speaker 1: Year's evening, Year's Day, Make sure you subscribe on Subscribe, subscribe,

1423
01:03:11,280 --> 01:03:14,160
Speaker 1: rate review, Tell a friend, tell an enemy. Thanks again

1424
01:03:14,200 --> 01:03:16,240
Speaker 1: for listening. We'll catch all eater cheers, peace out.

1425
01:03:18,400 --> 01:03:24,680
Speaker 2: It's the most squaderful time, just the most squander time,

1426
01:03:25,520 --> 01:03:28,200
Speaker 2: all the most squander time.

1427
01:03:41,680 --> 01:03:44,400
Speaker 1: If you don't bet on a bowl, the bowl even

1428
01:03:44,480 --> 01:03:44,800
Speaker 1: exist