Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The Israeli Prime Minister
Speaker 1: Benjamin Netniah, who has just begun his televised remarks, will
Speaker 1: of course bring you the headlines from this as we
Speaker 1: get them, but we want to add the voice as
Speaker 1: we await the news here of Evelyn Farcas. She's executive
Speaker 1: director of the McCain Institute, joining us now here on
Speaker 1: Bloomberg TV and Radio Evelyn, as we await the words
Speaker 1: of Netanya who and clarity as to whether or not
Speaker 1: an agreement has been reached. The reporting suggests that this
Speaker 1: would be temporary sixty day ceasefire. How if it is
Speaker 1: agreed to, do you make sixty days something more permanent?
Speaker 2: Kayleie, thank you for having me on. I think it
Speaker 2: needs to be really considered what kind of armed force
Speaker 2: might be in there to reinforce this agreement, because if
Speaker 2: there's no enforcement, I'm afraid the agreement won't hold. And
Speaker 2: there have been various proposals. Perhaps the IDF could go
Speaker 2: in there. It would of course require the United Nations
Speaker 2: to agree to that, which is a difficult proposition right now,
Speaker 2: given the perspective that a lot of the United Nations
Speaker 2: members have on Israel and the and the Israeli defense forces.
Speaker 2: You know how they have been fighting in Gaza.
Speaker 1: Well, we are uh nettaniahu is is speaking as we
Speaker 1: mentioned Evelyn in Hebrew. We understand. But initially the first
Speaker 1: read of his comments in part say that he says
Speaker 1: the war will not end until residents can return to
Speaker 1: the North and all goals are accomplished, including that safe return.
Speaker 1: And it does raise the question of the goals Israel
Speaker 1: had here at the outset Evelyn, and to what extent
Speaker 1: they have been largely achieved. And that doesn't just go
Speaker 1: for in Lebanon, but in Gaza as well.
Speaker 2: Well, I think Kelly clearly, the Israeli government has managed
Speaker 2: to neutralize Hesbala as a threat, and in doing so
Speaker 2: it has significantly weakened Iran, leaving a side of course,
Speaker 2: or let's add to it, what Israel has done in
Speaker 2: Gaza and what Israel has done directly in Iran, so
Speaker 2: Iran is much weakened. So there is an opportunity now
Speaker 2: to put pressure on Iran to make a bigger deal,
Speaker 2: meaning to stop the fighting through the power they have
Speaker 2: over Hamas in Gaza, and there's an opportunity to maybe
Speaker 2: get Iran's nuclear program back in the box if you will. Yeah.
Speaker 1: And Netanyahu is now saying that he's determined to prevent
Speaker 1: Iran from having nuclear arms, So we're talking about the
Speaker 1: same thing here, Evelyn, and I do wonder if the
Speaker 1: role you think Iran has in the knowledge that it
Speaker 1: is going to take Iranian blessing, you would think, or
Speaker 1: at least allowance of it's proxy Hezbola to agree to
Speaker 1: a deal like this with Israel, if one is to
Speaker 1: be reached, I wonder what it signals to you, knowing
Speaker 1: that their proxies have been weakened, if Iran is going
Speaker 1: to sanction this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I think Iran probably doesn't have a choice.
Speaker 2: Hesbelas significantly weakened. They probably want a break, if you will,
Speaker 2: a break from the fighting. My guess is that hesbel
Speaker 2: Lah would you know, probably be itching or would be
Speaker 2: willing to conduct more attacks against Israel in the future.
Speaker 2: That's why I think there needs to be some kind
Speaker 2: of mechanism for enforcement. But I don't think Iran has
Speaker 2: much of a choice. If Hesbela says we can't hold out,
Speaker 2: and if Iran wants to take some of the pressure
Speaker 2: off of itself again minimize the likelihood that Israel might
Speaker 2: do something further to further weaken Iran, whether it's in
Speaker 2: their nuclear facilities or elsewhere. I think Iran might be
Speaker 2: feeling like this is a good deal for the moment well.
Speaker 1: And Iran also knows, as does Israel and Yahoo, as
Speaker 1: do the Iran and proxies, that fifty five days from
Speaker 1: now there will be a different US administration in place.
Speaker 1: Donald Trump will be the president and commander in chief.
Speaker 1: And I wonder at the extent to which Evelyn, you
Speaker 1: think that is factoring in to the timing of this,
Speaker 1: as it's been months of pushing for a deal like
Speaker 1: this one, and now three weeks after the election, it
Speaker 1: does seem like it could come to fruition.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I think Iran is definitely concerned about what will
Speaker 2: happen under a US government led by President Trump. We
Speaker 2: know from media accounts that Iran tried to assassinate him,
Speaker 2: so they clearly didn't want him to be our next president.
Speaker 2: They are worried about this because Donald Trump has taken
Speaker 2: a hard line against Iran, so I would think that
Speaker 2: they're eager to have this deal. The Israelis, I think
Speaker 2: would be more likely to drag this out and offer
Speaker 2: a peace agreement, even if it's temporary, with Hezbollah, as
Speaker 2: a gift to incoming President Trump. So I'm a little
Speaker 2: bit skeptical Kelly, that this is going to get signed
Speaker 2: before the inauguration on January twentieth.
Speaker 1: Okay, So, and it is worth pointing out is we're
Speaker 1: and if you're with us here on Bloomberg TV, you
Speaker 1: see that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nettnia who is still speaking.
Speaker 1: We have yet to see him specifically address a ceasefire
Speaker 1: or to hear from him on that. We're still waiting
Speaker 1: for that news, Evelyn. But fifty five days, I guess
Speaker 1: is not that long of a time. And what the question?
Speaker 1: I started with this notion that it could be a
Speaker 1: sixty day secession of hostilities window that would essentially bring
Speaker 1: us what five days in to a Trump presidency. How
Speaker 1: could that play in here? They say we'll pause things
Speaker 1: for now, but when Trump comes back, we're revisiting this.
Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, it's possible, and maybe Israel thinks that
Speaker 2: that they'll be in a better position then I think
Speaker 2: they will be. Frankly, given the relationship between Prime Minister
Speaker 2: Netteyahu and President Trump. So that is another option they
Speaker 2: could sign now and then, as you point out, I
Speaker 2: hadn't done the math, than the gifts to President Trump
Speaker 2: is a chance to revisit and chance to make another deal.
Speaker 1: Well, we just heard from that Nyahu saying the duration
Speaker 1: of the truce in Lebanon depends on developments. He says,
Speaker 1: if Hesbela chooses to rearm, then Israel will attack once again.
Speaker 1: As we consider here, Evelyn, this notion that things can
Speaker 1: be temporary or they could be longer in duration, depending
Speaker 1: on the decisions here of the Iranian proxies. You were
Speaker 1: just speaking about this notion that they have been materially weakened,
Speaker 1: commanders taken out, infrastructure targeted by Israeli strikes. How long,
Speaker 1: realistically would it take Hesbela to reconstitute them themselves to
Speaker 1: be in the position to be as great a threat
Speaker 1: to Israel as it was beginning on October eighth and
Speaker 1: through now.
Speaker 2: It's hard for me to say that's really kind of
Speaker 2: a military question. Clearly, they lost a lot of manpower.
Speaker 2: The people whose hands were blown off, they are not
Speaker 2: likely to be fighters, so they need to be replaced.
Speaker 2: They need to replace their weaponry because of course we
Speaker 2: know Israel has taken out large stockpiles all the places
Speaker 2: where Hesbola had kept their weapons, those have been eliminated.
Speaker 2: I don't think it takes that long, so you know,
Speaker 2: probably maybe six months to a year. So this isn't
Speaker 2: a window of opportunity for Israel, certainly, and I would
Speaker 2: imagine that the Iranians and Hesbola would be interested in,
Speaker 2: you know, quickly going to a ceasefire so that they
Speaker 2: can take advantage and try to rebuild.
Speaker 1: And just again reminding our audience on Bloomberg TV and
Speaker 1: Radio that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netniel who is speaking,
Speaker 1: suggesting now that he will be bringing a truce agreement
Speaker 1: in Lebanon to the Cabinet for cabinet approval, which of
Speaker 1: course we understood that the cabinet was meeting today, so
Speaker 1: that might suggest this has not been fully agreed to yet, Evelyn.
Speaker 1: We also thought we might hear from President Biden today.
Speaker 1: I supposed we still could before he travels to Nantucket
Speaker 1: for Thanksgiving. And that plays into the fact that it
Speaker 1: was not just the US at the table here in
Speaker 1: these negotiations. In part this agreement was negotiated with the
Speaker 1: help of France and French President Emmanuel and Crone we
Speaker 1: understand was involved here. What do you make of the
Speaker 1: role of another ally, another mediating force in this knowing
Speaker 1: of course that there were many mediators at play in
Speaker 1: the talks that have yet to come to a fruitful
Speaker 1: ceasefire deal when it comes to Israel and Hamas.
Speaker 2: Yeah, it is interesting that the French were involved. Of course,
Speaker 2: the French have a long history in and with Lebanon,
Speaker 2: and so they want to maintain their relevance in the
Speaker 2: Middle East. So I would imagine that was part of
Speaker 2: what was motivating France. But clearly they would also like to,
Speaker 2: you know, tamp down the danger that we're going to
Speaker 2: have a wider war in the Middle East involving Iran
Speaker 2: and Israel continuing to target one another directly. That's dangerous
Speaker 2: for the world, frankly, and so I think France was
Speaker 2: motivated to try to help us with the diplomacy. The
Speaker 2: Lebanese government, of course, is also involved because we the
Speaker 2: United States, we don't deal directly with Hesbolah because they're
Speaker 2: terrorist organizations. So the Lebanese government was essentially doing some
Speaker 2: of that go between work well.
Speaker 1: That is an important point. There's obviously a distinction between
Speaker 1: the Lebanese government and Hezbola forces. To reiterate, Netanyahu here
Speaker 1: is saying that he will bring the Lebanon Truce agreement
Speaker 1: to the Security Cabinet for a vote, suggesting that vote
Speaker 1: has not happened yet, though he does say the truce
Speaker 1: proposed will help isolate Hamas and free hostages. We also
Speaker 1: just had a headline cross the Bloomberg Terminal that ten
Speaker 1: minutes from now, at least scheduled ten minutes from now
Speaker 1: one thirty pm Eastern time, Biden will be delivering remarks
Speaker 1: at the White House. I would presume, Evelyn, those remarks
Speaker 1: would pertain to this just before I let you go,
Speaker 1: knowing he is in the final weeks here of his presidency,
Speaker 1: which is fifty five days to go. As we've discussed,
Speaker 1: what would it mean if this can be achieved under
Speaker 1: this president in particular, who has been pushing for a
Speaker 1: ceasefire and said he wants part of his legacy to
Speaker 1: be greater peace in the Middle East.
Speaker 2: Well, it would mean that he has achieved, of course,
Speaker 2: that objective, and he will have brought some peace to
Speaker 2: the Middle East. In the aftermath of the horrible attack
Speaker 2: that was conducted by Lebanese proxies by Hamas out of Gaza,
Speaker 2: and then of course the fact that the Hesbola struck
Speaker 2: Israel again the first time since, you know, in a
Speaker 2: massive way, since the two thousand and six negotiations to
Speaker 2: end the conflict between Hesbela and Israel in the north.
Speaker 2: So it would be an achievement, certainly, that would bring
Speaker 2: us closer to It will bring some peace and allow
Speaker 2: the people, the Israeli people to go back and live
Speaker 2: in the north and also the Lebanese people to live
Speaker 2: in their south. But it wouldn't solve the Hamas. It
Speaker 2: might make it easier to solve Hamas, but those are
Speaker 2: very different situations. So I'm a bit skeptical as to
Speaker 2: whether that would open the door wide enough.
Speaker 1: All right, Evelyn, appreciate you joining us as we work
Speaker 1: through these headlines from the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Speaker 1: Evelyn Farkas, Executive Director of the McCain Institute