WEBVTT - Evelyn Farkas Talks Israel-Hezbollah Ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The Israeli Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 1>Benjamin Netniah, who has just begun his televised remarks, will

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<v Speaker 1>of course bring you the headlines from this as we

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<v Speaker 1>get them, but we want to add the voice as

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<v Speaker 1>we await the news here of Evelyn Farcas. She's executive

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<v Speaker 1>director of the McCain Institute, joining us now here on

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg TV and Radio Evelyn, as we await the words

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<v Speaker 1>of Netanya who and clarity as to whether or not

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<v Speaker 1>an agreement has been reached. The reporting suggests that this

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<v Speaker 1>would be temporary sixty day ceasefire. How if it is

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<v Speaker 1>agreed to, do you make sixty days something more permanent?

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<v Speaker 2>Kayleie, thank you for having me on. I think it

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<v Speaker 2>needs to be really considered what kind of armed force

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<v Speaker 2>might be in there to reinforce this agreement, because if

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<v Speaker 2>there's no enforcement, I'm afraid the agreement won't hold. And

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<v Speaker 2>there have been various proposals. Perhaps the IDF could go

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<v Speaker 2>in there. It would of course require the United Nations

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<v Speaker 2>to agree to that, which is a difficult proposition right now,

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<v Speaker 2>given the perspective that a lot of the United Nations

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<v Speaker 2>members have on Israel and the and the Israeli defense forces.

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<v Speaker 2>You know how they have been fighting in Gaza.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, we are uh nettaniahu is is speaking as we

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<v Speaker 1>mentioned Evelyn in Hebrew. We understand. But initially the first

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<v Speaker 1>read of his comments in part say that he says

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<v Speaker 1>the war will not end until residents can return to

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<v Speaker 1>the North and all goals are accomplished, including that safe return.

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<v Speaker 1>And it does raise the question of the goals Israel

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<v Speaker 1>had here at the outset Evelyn, and to what extent

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<v Speaker 1>they have been largely achieved. And that doesn't just go

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<v Speaker 1>for in Lebanon, but in Gaza as well.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I think Kelly clearly, the Israeli government has managed

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<v Speaker 2>to neutralize Hesbala as a threat, and in doing so

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<v Speaker 2>it has significantly weakened Iran, leaving a side of course,

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<v Speaker 2>or let's add to it, what Israel has done in

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<v Speaker 2>Gaza and what Israel has done directly in Iran, so

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<v Speaker 2>Iran is much weakened. So there is an opportunity now

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<v Speaker 2>to put pressure on Iran to make a bigger deal,

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<v Speaker 2>meaning to stop the fighting through the power they have

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<v Speaker 2>over Hamas in Gaza, and there's an opportunity to maybe

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<v Speaker 2>get Iran's nuclear program back in the box if you will. Yeah.

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<v Speaker 1>And Netanyahu is now saying that he's determined to prevent

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<v Speaker 1>Iran from having nuclear arms, So we're talking about the

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<v Speaker 1>same thing here, Evelyn, and I do wonder if the

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<v Speaker 1>role you think Iran has in the knowledge that it

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<v Speaker 1>is going to take Iranian blessing, you would think, or

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<v Speaker 1>at least allowance of it's proxy Hezbola to agree to

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<v Speaker 1>a deal like this with Israel, if one is to

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<v Speaker 1>be reached, I wonder what it signals to you, knowing

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<v Speaker 1>that their proxies have been weakened, if Iran is going

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<v Speaker 1>to sanction this.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean I think Iran probably doesn't have a choice.

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<v Speaker 2>Hesbelas significantly weakened. They probably want a break, if you will,

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<v Speaker 2>a break from the fighting. My guess is that hesbel

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<v Speaker 2>Lah would you know, probably be itching or would be

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<v Speaker 2>willing to conduct more attacks against Israel in the future.

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<v Speaker 2>That's why I think there needs to be some kind

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<v Speaker 2>of mechanism for enforcement. But I don't think Iran has

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<v Speaker 2>much of a choice. If Hesbela says we can't hold out,

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<v Speaker 2>and if Iran wants to take some of the pressure

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<v Speaker 2>off of itself again minimize the likelihood that Israel might

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<v Speaker 2>do something further to further weaken Iran, whether it's in

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<v Speaker 2>their nuclear facilities or elsewhere. I think Iran might be

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<v Speaker 2>feeling like this is a good deal for the moment well.

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<v Speaker 1>And Iran also knows, as does Israel and Yahoo, as

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<v Speaker 1>do the Iran and proxies, that fifty five days from

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<v Speaker 1>now there will be a different US administration in place.

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<v Speaker 1>Donald Trump will be the president and commander in chief.

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<v Speaker 1>And I wonder at the extent to which Evelyn, you

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<v Speaker 1>think that is factoring in to the timing of this,

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<v Speaker 1>as it's been months of pushing for a deal like

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<v Speaker 1>this one, and now three weeks after the election, it

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<v Speaker 1>does seem like it could come to fruition.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah. I think Iran is definitely concerned about what will

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<v Speaker 2>happen under a US government led by President Trump. We

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<v Speaker 2>know from media accounts that Iran tried to assassinate him,

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<v Speaker 2>so they clearly didn't want him to be our next president.

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<v Speaker 2>They are worried about this because Donald Trump has taken

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<v Speaker 2>a hard line against Iran, so I would think that

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<v Speaker 2>they're eager to have this deal. The Israelis, I think

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<v Speaker 2>would be more likely to drag this out and offer

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<v Speaker 2>a peace agreement, even if it's temporary, with Hezbollah, as

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<v Speaker 2>a gift to incoming President Trump. So I'm a little

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<v Speaker 2>bit skeptical Kelly, that this is going to get signed

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<v Speaker 2>before the inauguration on January twentieth.

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<v Speaker 1>Okay, So, and it is worth pointing out is we're

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<v Speaker 1>and if you're with us here on Bloomberg TV, you

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<v Speaker 1>see that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nettnia who is still speaking.

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<v Speaker 1>We have yet to see him specifically address a ceasefire

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<v Speaker 1>or to hear from him on that. We're still waiting

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<v Speaker 1>for that news, Evelyn. But fifty five days, I guess

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<v Speaker 1>is not that long of a time. And what the question?

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<v Speaker 1>I started with this notion that it could be a

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<v Speaker 1>sixty day secession of hostilities window that would essentially bring

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<v Speaker 1>us what five days in to a Trump presidency. How

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<v Speaker 1>could that play in here? They say we'll pause things

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<v Speaker 1>for now, but when Trump comes back, we're revisiting this.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, I mean, it's possible, and maybe Israel thinks that

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<v Speaker 2>that they'll be in a better position then I think

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<v Speaker 2>they will be. Frankly, given the relationship between Prime Minister

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<v Speaker 2>Netteyahu and President Trump. So that is another option they

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<v Speaker 2>could sign now and then, as you point out, I

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<v Speaker 2>hadn't done the math, than the gifts to President Trump

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<v Speaker 2>is a chance to revisit and chance to make another deal.

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<v Speaker 1>Well, we just heard from that Nyahu saying the duration

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<v Speaker 1>of the truce in Lebanon depends on developments. He says,

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<v Speaker 1>if Hesbela chooses to rearm, then Israel will attack once again.

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<v Speaker 1>As we consider here, Evelyn, this notion that things can

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<v Speaker 1>be temporary or they could be longer in duration, depending

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<v Speaker 1>on the decisions here of the Iranian proxies. You were

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<v Speaker 1>just speaking about this notion that they have been materially weakened,

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<v Speaker 1>commanders taken out, infrastructure targeted by Israeli strikes. How long,

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<v Speaker 1>realistically would it take Hesbela to reconstitute them themselves to

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<v Speaker 1>be in the position to be as great a threat

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<v Speaker 1>to Israel as it was beginning on October eighth and

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<v Speaker 1>through now.

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<v Speaker 2>It's hard for me to say that's really kind of

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<v Speaker 2>a military question. Clearly, they lost a lot of manpower.

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<v Speaker 2>The people whose hands were blown off, they are not

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<v Speaker 2>likely to be fighters, so they need to be replaced.

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<v Speaker 2>They need to replace their weaponry because of course we

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<v Speaker 2>know Israel has taken out large stockpiles all the places

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<v Speaker 2>where Hesbola had kept their weapons, those have been eliminated.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think it takes that long, so you know,

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<v Speaker 2>probably maybe six months to a year. So this isn't

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<v Speaker 2>a window of opportunity for Israel, certainly, and I would

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<v Speaker 2>imagine that the Iranians and Hesbola would be interested in,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, quickly going to a ceasefire so that they

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<v Speaker 2>can take advantage and try to rebuild.

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<v Speaker 1>And just again reminding our audience on Bloomberg TV and

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<v Speaker 1>Radio that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netniel who is speaking,

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<v Speaker 1>suggesting now that he will be bringing a truce agreement

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<v Speaker 1>in Lebanon to the Cabinet for cabinet approval, which of

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<v Speaker 1>course we understood that the cabinet was meeting today, so

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<v Speaker 1>that might suggest this has not been fully agreed to yet, Evelyn.

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<v Speaker 1>We also thought we might hear from President Biden today.

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<v Speaker 1>I supposed we still could before he travels to Nantucket

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<v Speaker 1>for Thanksgiving. And that plays into the fact that it

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<v Speaker 1>was not just the US at the table here in

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<v Speaker 1>these negotiations. In part this agreement was negotiated with the

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<v Speaker 1>help of France and French President Emmanuel and Crone we

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<v Speaker 1>understand was involved here. What do you make of the

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<v Speaker 1>role of another ally, another mediating force in this knowing

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<v Speaker 1>of course that there were many mediators at play in

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<v Speaker 1>the talks that have yet to come to a fruitful

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<v Speaker 1>ceasefire deal when it comes to Israel and Hamas.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, it is interesting that the French were involved. Of course,

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<v Speaker 2>the French have a long history in and with Lebanon,

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<v Speaker 2>and so they want to maintain their relevance in the

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<v Speaker 2>Middle East. So I would imagine that was part of

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<v Speaker 2>what was motivating France. But clearly they would also like to,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, tamp down the danger that we're going to

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<v Speaker 2>have a wider war in the Middle East involving Iran

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<v Speaker 2>and Israel continuing to target one another directly. That's dangerous

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<v Speaker 2>for the world, frankly, and so I think France was

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<v Speaker 2>motivated to try to help us with the diplomacy. The

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<v Speaker 2>Lebanese government, of course, is also involved because we the

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<v Speaker 2>United States, we don't deal directly with Hesbolah because they're

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<v Speaker 2>terrorist organizations. So the Lebanese government was essentially doing some

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<v Speaker 2>of that go between work well.

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<v Speaker 1>That is an important point. There's obviously a distinction between

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<v Speaker 1>the Lebanese government and Hezbola forces. To reiterate, Netanyahu here

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<v Speaker 1>is saying that he will bring the Lebanon Truce agreement

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<v Speaker 1>to the Security Cabinet for a vote, suggesting that vote

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<v Speaker 1>has not happened yet, though he does say the truce

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<v Speaker 1>proposed will help isolate Hamas and free hostages. We also

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<v Speaker 1>just had a headline cross the Bloomberg Terminal that ten

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<v Speaker 1>minutes from now, at least scheduled ten minutes from now

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<v Speaker 1>one thirty pm Eastern time, Biden will be delivering remarks

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<v Speaker 1>at the White House. I would presume, Evelyn, those remarks

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<v Speaker 1>would pertain to this just before I let you go,

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<v Speaker 1>knowing he is in the final weeks here of his presidency,

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<v Speaker 1>which is fifty five days to go. As we've discussed,

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<v Speaker 1>what would it mean if this can be achieved under

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<v Speaker 1>this president in particular, who has been pushing for a

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<v Speaker 1>ceasefire and said he wants part of his legacy to

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<v Speaker 1>be greater peace in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, it would mean that he has achieved, of course,

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<v Speaker 2>that objective, and he will have brought some peace to

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<v Speaker 2>the Middle East. In the aftermath of the horrible attack

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<v Speaker 2>that was conducted by Lebanese proxies by Hamas out of Gaza,

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<v Speaker 2>and then of course the fact that the Hesbola struck

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<v Speaker 2>Israel again the first time since, you know, in a

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<v Speaker 2>massive way, since the two thousand and six negotiations to

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<v Speaker 2>end the conflict between Hesbela and Israel in the north.

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<v Speaker 2>So it would be an achievement, certainly, that would bring

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<v Speaker 2>us closer to It will bring some peace and allow

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<v Speaker 2>the people, the Israeli people to go back and live

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<v Speaker 2>in the north and also the Lebanese people to live

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<v Speaker 2>in their south. But it wouldn't solve the Hamas. It

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<v Speaker 2>might make it easier to solve Hamas, but those are

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<v Speaker 2>very different situations. So I'm a bit skeptical as to

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<v Speaker 2>whether that would open the door wide enough.

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<v Speaker 1>All right, Evelyn, appreciate you joining us as we work

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<v Speaker 1>through these headlines from the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

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<v Speaker 1>Evelyn Farkas, Executive Director of the McCain Institute