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Speaker 2: First, our conversation, which I just mentioned with Congresswoman Nicole
Speaker 2: Mally Gattaca. She's with us right now from Capitol Hill
Speaker 2: on what is an important day for her and for
Speaker 2: the body is lawmakers get back together and, as I mentioned,
Speaker 2: seek progress on a border deal. And Congresswoman, we thank
Speaker 2: you for joining here. It looks like your bill h R.
Speaker 2: Five two eighty three is going to get a vote
Speaker 2: right after we talk here today. The Protecting our Communities
Speaker 2: from Failure to Secure the Border Act is what it's
Speaker 2: called here. Of course, the migrant crisis in New York
Speaker 2: is not lost on US. Congresswoman, how would it change that?
Speaker 3: Well, look, obviously the crisis has gotten out of control,
Speaker 3: and the President unfortunately refuses to undo his executive orders
Speaker 3: and present I mean, I'm sorry, Senator Schumer refuses to
Speaker 3: bring our Border Security Act, which passed in May, to
Speaker 3: the floor for a vote that would end this crisis
Speaker 3: by reverting back to the policies of the previous administration
Speaker 3: that we're working to stem the flow. So what I'm
Speaker 3: trying to simply do here is to prohibit federal funds
Speaker 3: from now being used to allow for our national parks
Speaker 3: to be turned into encampment. Those listening from New York
Speaker 3: City understands that Floyd Bennett Field, which was a park
Speaker 3: enjoyed by over one hundred thousand New Yorkers annually, has
Speaker 3: now been made a migrant encampment for roughly two to
Speaker 3: three thousand individuals. So it's number one, inappropriate, it's wrong
Speaker 3: to take these public spaces from our citizens. And number two,
Speaker 3: it's just simply unsustainable. Look what is happening in New
Speaker 3: York right now with our mayor saying they need to
Speaker 3: do slash across the board cuts billions of dollars that
Speaker 3: they're spending on this migrant crisis that was self made,
Speaker 3: by the way, because of the policies of the president
Speaker 3: and then the misinterpretation of the right to shelter law
Speaker 3: by our mayor. So those two things have created this mess.
Speaker 3: We need to just stop it.
Speaker 2: People.
Speaker 3: We are a welcoming nation, we are a welcoming city.
Speaker 3: I'm the daughter of immigrants myself, but people have to
Speaker 3: follow the proper process, and the proper process, by the way,
Speaker 3: for asylum is you apply from the next safe country.
Speaker 3: We have people from over one hundred and twenty countries
Speaker 3: claiming asylum at our border when we're only bordered by
Speaker 3: two countries, So people are abusing the system. Not to
Speaker 3: mention that fifty percent of those cases are denied in court,
Speaker 3: which means people are utilizing this to gain access to
Speaker 3: our country, but they don't even have legitimate claims, and
Speaker 3: they're hurting all the people that are in the system
Speaker 3: waiting but followed the rules and have done everything right.
Speaker 2: Well, I want to definitely talk to you about asylum law.
Speaker 2: There are a couple of very specific questions I have
Speaker 2: for you, Congresswoman. It's not lost on me, though, that
Speaker 2: you mentioned the Floyd Bennett field in Brooklyn, New York
Speaker 2: on the Historic Registry. We understand that a lot of
Speaker 2: migrants who have been sent there got on a bus
Speaker 2: and went right back to Manhattan because there was nothing
Speaker 2: there for their families. They didn't know how to get
Speaker 2: their kids to school. Do you have the votes to
Speaker 2: pass this bill?
Speaker 3: I do believe we have the votes and I do
Speaker 3: believe that it will pass with a bipartisan vote, as
Speaker 3: it did in the committee earlier this month or last month.
Speaker 3: But what I'll say is this, You're right, and it's
Speaker 3: not safe for the migrants either. Right, there's been significant
Speaker 3: flooding on that property. It was really devastated during Hurricane Sandy.
Speaker 3: But even during a terrible rainstorm like we had a
Speaker 3: few weeks ago, it had about it had, you know,
Speaker 3: a foot of water. So it's not safe for anybody involved.
Speaker 3: And the reality is the mayor just has to stop
Speaker 3: doing what he's doing, and the President needs to take
Speaker 3: action to secure the border. And you mentioned your comprehensive
Speaker 3: immigration reform. Yes, I mean the Republicans certainly want border security,
Speaker 3: but we're willing to work with the Democrats on more
Speaker 3: visas to make sure people can come and work legally.
Speaker 3: We do have an employment issue in our country where
Speaker 3: we have a worker shortage. This can be addressedic. It
Speaker 3: could be a win win if we do it right.
Speaker 3: But the bottom line is the process needs to be
Speaker 3: appropriate and legal. Okay, what's happening right now? Who's benefiting
Speaker 3: the drug cartels who are being paid thousands of dollars
Speaker 3: per person to smuggle these individuals into our southern border.
Speaker 3: We know from Doctors Without Borders their recent report hundreds
Speaker 3: of these individuals and just Panama, by the way, in
Speaker 3: one month they had been raped women and children. So
Speaker 3: it's very dangerous. It's treacherous. People drown daily and not daily,
Speaker 3: but regularly. In Eagle Pass US this weekend there were fourteen.
Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about specifics in here, Congressman, if we could,
Speaker 2: I'd like to ask you about asylum reform. I'd like
Speaker 2: to ask you about the parole system. These are things
Speaker 2: that our listeners are really kind of keying into now
Speaker 2: as the contours of a potential deal come together. We're
Speaker 2: hearing from Democrats in the Senate congresswomen who say they
Speaker 2: are open to changing asylum law. What does that look
Speaker 2: like when we come back to it. Is it a
Speaker 2: toughening of standards for those who can express credible fear,
Speaker 2: for instance, coming from other nations. What would a change
Speaker 2: in asylum law look like to you?
Speaker 3: Well, first of all, we need to add more judges
Speaker 3: and asylum officers to actually hear these cases and determine
Speaker 3: at the border whether they are legitimate cases or not.
Speaker 3: Because Like I said, fifty percent of these cases are
Speaker 3: not legitimate. They get denied in court, and meanwhile they're
Speaker 3: clogging off the system. The second thing we need to
Speaker 3: change is this last in, first out system that this
Speaker 3: administration is put in place, where somebody comes over the border,
Speaker 3: they're actually first to be heard in court as opposed
Speaker 3: to people who have been waiting in line. That's really
Speaker 3: unfair to those have been waiting years to be able
Speaker 3: to hear their cases and now they're being shoved further
Speaker 3: back in the line because of this mass migration from board.
Speaker 3: A third of all, we need to enforce the law
Speaker 3: that says that you have to go to the next
Speaker 3: safe country. By those By that standard, only people from
Speaker 3: Mexico or Canada would be coming to the United States,
Speaker 3: and that would certainly stem the flow. People would apply
Speaker 3: from the next safe country and then they could wait
Speaker 3: until their court date, and then they.
Speaker 2: Could should that in Mexico policy as well well.
Speaker 3: If they yes, well it should if they are coming
Speaker 3: from a third country. That's what I'm trying to say.
Speaker 3: We can actually address all of it where they don't
Speaker 3: need to stay in Mexico, they would stay in the
Speaker 3: next safe country and that's really what the remain in
Speaker 3: Mexico was all about. It wasn't it just about having
Speaker 3: people from all these countries stay on the other side
Speaker 3: of the Mexican border.
Speaker 2: It was more about.
Speaker 3: Staying in the next safe country and applying from there
Speaker 3: and then waiting your turn in court. So I think
Speaker 3: if we do those things and add the border security provisions,
Speaker 3: we would really shut this thing down and have a
Speaker 3: more controllable process. Remember ten years waiting period right now
Speaker 3: to get a court date in.
Speaker 2: New York City.
Speaker 3: So adding the judges and asylum offices is a big
Speaker 3: part of it. But we also have to stem the
Speaker 3: flow at the border and its visas.
Speaker 2: It appears that there's some common ground on that that
Speaker 2: that actually you might in fact get Democrats and Republicans together.
Speaker 2: The sticking point appears to be the parole system as
Speaker 2: it's called, which allows essentially the president to give humanitarian
Speaker 2: exceptions to people from countries like we're seeing now Venezuela, Cuba,
Speaker 2: and some others here. Tom Taillis said on the Senate side,
Speaker 2: of course, a Republican asylum reform is not enough to
Speaker 2: get us to the number that we need. So what
Speaker 2: happens to the parole system.
Speaker 3: Well, you know what, my mother was a Cuban refugee,
Speaker 3: and so I relate to those individuals from Cuba and
Speaker 3: Venezuela who are escaping socialist policies from communist policies, and
Speaker 3: I think that we can certainly look, this is what
Speaker 3: happened though. The president issued this parole, but then he
Speaker 3: didn't enforce the border law. So the idea of the
Speaker 3: parole was so the people from Venezuela can apply via
Speaker 3: parole instead of coming to the border. And now it
Speaker 3: was supposed to shut down Venezuela's coming from the border,
Speaker 3: but that did not happen because he managed to keep
Speaker 3: the system the borders open. So there's a limit to
Speaker 3: the number of parole. But then you were not enforcing
Speaker 3: the people who did not apply by parole but then
Speaker 3: came to the border regardless, and that was the whole
Speaker 3: point of parole was so they didn't come to the border.
Speaker 3: So you have to have enforcement right anyway you look
Speaker 3: at it. We need to have enforcement the southern border.
Speaker 3: It's not just because the flow of migrants is unsustainable.
Speaker 3: It is because it is completely unsafe. We have drug
Speaker 3: cartels who are pushing drugs over the border. They are
Speaker 3: setting up shop in New York City. I just had
Speaker 3: a meeting today with a Drug Enforcement administration very concerning.
Speaker 3: They intercepted two hundred thousand pounds of fetanyl or derivatives,
Speaker 3: and that is certainly something that we have to take
Speaker 3: seriously as we see well over one hundred thousand Americans
Speaker 3: dying from these drug overdoses. So there's a lot here
Speaker 3: that is a problem because of our open border. And
Speaker 3: what I would say is Republicans want to see border security.
Speaker 3: We will not give this administration more money to continue
Speaker 3: processing paperwork. Want we want our CBP to actually do
Speaker 3: their job, and that means keeping the border secure so
Speaker 3: we know who is coming in and out. One point
Speaker 3: seven million. One point seven million individuals aside from the
Speaker 3: six million that had come in and applied for asylum,
Speaker 3: have come in undetected. That is what CBP estimates. We
Speaker 3: don't know who they are, where they are, what their
Speaker 3: intentions are, and that is very concerning to me as
Speaker 3: a New York City representative in a post nine to
Speaker 3: eleven world.
Speaker 2: You are definitely passionate about this, Congresswoman, but I do
Speaker 2: want to ask you about another matter facing the Republican
Speaker 2: conference now, and that is, of course, someone from your
Speaker 2: own delegation, George Santos, the Congressman from New York, who's
Speaker 2: facing it appears an expulsion vote at some point in
Speaker 2: the next twenty four hours or so. Will Republicans expel
Speaker 2: George Santos from the House?
Speaker 3: Well, I, well, I think the majority of Republicans will,
Speaker 3: and I think it will be a bipartisan vote, and
Speaker 3: we need two thirds of the body to to expel
Speaker 3: for it to be successful. I will be voting to
Speaker 3: expel mister Santos. Look, we earlier this year referred it
Speaker 3: to the Ethics Committee. We've asked them to do their
Speaker 3: due diligence. They have. They issued thirty eight subpoenas, they
Speaker 3: talked to forty different witnesses, They reviewed one hundred and
Speaker 3: seventy thousand pages of documents, and they were able to
Speaker 3: produce the evidence and determine that mister Santos did, in
Speaker 3: fact use his campaign donations for personal benefit, for botox,
Speaker 3: for a porn website, for a purchase of luxury goods
Speaker 3: at Ferragamo and Amez, and so we have to take
Speaker 3: action and remove him. Now. He will have his day
Speaker 3: in court as it relates to the criminal charges. But
Speaker 3: in terms of being able to continue his service in Congress,
Speaker 3: we believe we have seen enough and that he does
Speaker 3: not merit to continue serving in this body, and his
Speaker 3: constituents do deserve better.
Speaker 2: Is this a good message for Republicans right now? Is
Speaker 2: there an opportunity for you to send this message to
Speaker 2: voters to say that this is an act of responsibility
Speaker 2: and that we intend to keep that seat because Democrats
Speaker 2: think that they're going to flip that for you in
Speaker 2: New York.
Speaker 3: Well, I do think it is an active responsibility. And look,
Speaker 3: the last time this happened, it was a Democrat and
Speaker 3: it didn't be politicized. I mean, you have to remove
Speaker 3: in individuals a bad apple like that. He lied his
Speaker 3: way to get to Congress, and then he committed these
Speaker 3: horrific activities and inappropriate use and illegally use quite frankly
Speaker 3: of his donors' money. And so we believe that by
Speaker 3: removing this bad apple, we will be better served as
Speaker 3: an institution, as a party, and his district will be
Speaker 3: able to elect someone who is not a fraud. And
Speaker 3: I do believe that Republicans can hold onto that seat
Speaker 3: if you look what happened in Nasa County this year.
Speaker 3: They have flipped everything. They have flipped their congressional seats,
Speaker 3: they flipped their county executive, county legislature, the district attorney.
Speaker 3: So Nasa County, I have good faith that they will
Speaker 3: be able to elect another Republican. But yes, it will
Speaker 3: remain a competitive a seat as it has.
Speaker 4: In the past.
Speaker 2: You don't know what he's going to say eight o'clock
Speaker 2: tomorrow morning. Do you have Have you heard from your
Speaker 2: colleague from New York about what this news conference is about.
Speaker 3: No, I have not heard, and I guess we'll find out.
Speaker 3: Hopefully we'll be able to expel him prior to that.
Speaker 2: Wow, what a day this is going to be. Congresswoman
Speaker 2: Nicole Malia Takis of New York with us. We appreciate
Speaker 2: the time as always, Will your bill get a vote
Speaker 2: at one point thirty as we're hearing, is at your expectation, yo.
Speaker 3: The debate will begin at two pm and then we'll
Speaker 3: have the vote following that.
Speaker 2: Great to see you again, Congresswoman. Thank you for the insights.
Speaker 2: Grabbing the third rail here as they say, and that's
Speaker 2: of course border policy, border security and immigration reform that
Speaker 2: appears to be the center of this grand debate over
Speaker 2: funding for Israel and for Ukraine. I'm Joe Matthew in
Speaker 2: New York today. We'll call it a special edition of
Speaker 2: Soundown because we've got Rick Davis with us up here
Speaker 2: as well at world headquarters, Bloomberg Politics contributor iconic Republican Strategists,
Speaker 2: joined today by Brad Howard, Democrats strategist, former spokesperson for
Speaker 2: the Blue Dog Democrats. Great to have you both here.
Speaker 2: Thank you for joining Brad the conversation, and Rick, it's
Speaker 2: good to see you here in New York. As we
Speaker 2: consider what's happening in Washington. There's a lot I could
Speaker 2: ask you about here, but I'm just going to start
Speaker 2: with George Santos because we were just talking about that
Speaker 2: with Nicole Maliatak. As it does appear that the Republican
Speaker 2: Conference is prepared to say goodbye.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the Republican Conference, the Democratic Conference, if
Speaker 5: there was an independent or a socialist conference, said I'll
Speaker 5: be piling on on this one.
Speaker 1: Look.
Speaker 5: I mean, as Congressman Mallytakers pointed out, the Ethics Committee
Speaker 5: did their report fifty pages. You know, Congressman guests the
Speaker 5: chairman of that committee. A searing indictment like none we've
Speaker 5: ever seen out of the Ethics Committee. And that's what matters.
Speaker 5: It doesn't matter ultimately to the House whether or not
Speaker 5: he is prosecuted for criminal charges that is, that is
Speaker 5: not what they're going to vote on. They're going to
Speaker 5: vote on a massive failure to a to adhere to
Speaker 5: the ethics of the House of Representatives. It's a no brainer.
Speaker 5: Anybody actually who votes against expulsion has to be questioned
Speaker 5: as to what they see as the standard.
Speaker 2: Democrats, I'm guessing Brad are going to vote to expel.
Speaker 2: I know they were having fun last time keeping George
Speaker 2: Santos around, and maybe it's a game they can play
Speaker 2: with Republicans. But Democrats will vote to expel, right.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I think for you know, a couple of reasons here.
Speaker 6: You've got the expulsion on the merits, and you know,
Speaker 6: I think there's there is some credible response from George
Speaker 6: Santos that you know that nothing's been proven in a
Speaker 6: court of law, and there is a concern about the
Speaker 6: President of Sets. But this is such a unique and
Speaker 6: such an obvious violation of your oath of office and
Speaker 6: the trust you have with voters, and it's well documented.
Speaker 6: I mean, you know, it's it's you know, most people
Speaker 6: always get caught with like accounting and documents and the
Speaker 6: sort of tax evasions ultimately gets a lot of gangsters
Speaker 6: back in the day. This is a similar situation where
Speaker 6: it is a very clear and documented, long sets of
Speaker 6: evidence that he broke federal law and misused campaign contributions
Speaker 6: along the way. And so I think just the severity
Speaker 6: and the clearness of these violations, you know, I think
Speaker 6: Democrats resoundingly understand that this is something that needs to
Speaker 6: be rejected and removed from the House Representatives. But secondly too,
Speaker 6: I mean, obviously this is a city of politics, and
Speaker 6: Democrats think that they can retake that seat. Thomas waz
Speaker 6: who was the congressman beforehand, is the clear front runner
Speaker 6: for that seat, and he will be a great member
Speaker 6: of Congress should he win a special election.
Speaker 2: There's going to be a special and then a real
Speaker 2: election here, Rick is the conventional wisdom fare that Democrats
Speaker 2: flip that seat.
Speaker 5: Not necessarily, I mean, I don't think we have a
Speaker 5: real handle on what this election cycle is going to look.
Speaker 5: So going backwards from the November elections in twenty twenty four.
Speaker 5: I think it's a jump ball whether Republicans can retain
Speaker 5: that seat and retain the House. You know, when you
Speaker 5: look at the generic ballot, it's pretty dead even right now,
Speaker 5: So there's no real headfake that's empirical that tells you
Speaker 5: who's going to win. Now, no question, Democrats have to
Speaker 5: have a leg up on the special because of the
Speaker 5: embarrassing nature of the expulsion that Republicans are going to
Speaker 5: have to get over. So if they can get over that,
Speaker 5: then they can make it a competitive district.
Speaker 2: Unbelievable stuff. Quite a moment that we're approaching here. Rick
Speaker 2: Davis with me in New York, Rad Howard in Washington.
Speaker 2: If you're with us on YouTube, do it now. Go
Speaker 2: to YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Brad will keep you
Speaker 2: warm with the fireplace in his office. Well played, Brad.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew at World Headquarters in New York. We'll
Speaker 2: have a lot more ahead as we run for the border.
Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the
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Speaker 2: As border security is debated on Capitol Hill, nevermind funding
Speaker 2: Israel and Ukraine, which of course all overlap. It's a
Speaker 2: tough room today for Joe Biden, the President of the
Speaker 2: United States, wakes up to hear from Jamie Diamond and
Speaker 2: Bill Ackman, both not looking forward to his reelection. Bill
Speaker 2: Ackman going even further here kind of amazing, essentially telling
Speaker 2: him that he's peaked and must drop out of the
Speaker 2: twenty twenty four campaign. It comes against the backdrop of
Speaker 2: new numbers from Gallup. Again, tough room, poor marks for Biden.
Speaker 2: The headline Middle East Economy, Foreign Affairs. Look at this
Speaker 2: thirty seven percent approve, fifty nine percent disapprove, unchanged from
Speaker 2: last month's ratings, which remain in the basement. So let's
Speaker 2: reassemble our panel. Rick Davis is with us, of course,
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican strategist, joined today by Brad Howard,
Speaker 2: Democratic strategist, former spokesperson for the Blue Dog Democrats with
Speaker 2: us today on the fastest show in politics. Great to
Speaker 2: have you both here, Brad, what do you do for
Speaker 2: Joe Biden? He's asking you for your advice. He's got
Speaker 2: a list of accomplishments that he thinks should get him
Speaker 2: re elected, from infrastructure to the ira but these numbers
Speaker 2: have been incredibly stubborn and the situation in Israel is
Speaker 2: not helping.
Speaker 6: Yeah, before I get the advice that I would give
Speaker 6: to the president, which you know he doesn't call me
Speaker 6: that often, but should he? Yeah, But first I just
Speaker 6: want the polling is tricky for a Democratic incumbent in general,
Speaker 6: because we have a sector of our base that's never
Speaker 6: satisfied that we go far enough right, and so they
Speaker 6: are always going to be disapproving of the president's job
Speaker 6: performance because they didn't think he went liberal enough and
Speaker 6: maybe satisfied with some of the things he did, but
Speaker 6: they want more. For instance, Barack Obama in October twenty
Speaker 6: eleven was below or Joe Biden is today, and yet
Speaker 6: he resoundingly beat Mitt Romney a year later. So there's
Speaker 6: a factor of that involved here. Am I concerned about
Speaker 6: the poll numbers? Absolutely? And what I you know, the
Speaker 6: president needs to go out and talk about some of
Speaker 6: these accomplishments, but not in a way that says vote
Speaker 6: for me because I've done this. Like todding, your accomplishments
Speaker 6: builds trust with the voter. I said I would do this,
Speaker 6: I've done this. Now here's what I want to do
Speaker 6: for you if you give me another term. And I
Speaker 6: think that second part of that message the White House
Speaker 6: has yet to address. I mean, they're prepared to attack
Speaker 6: Donald Trump, who I think is going to be the
Speaker 6: Republican nominee. I think most people do, and I think
Speaker 6: in that situation, Joe Biden can and will win. But
Speaker 6: what is Joe Biden's vision for another four years and
Speaker 6: to the compment that he has peaked. I think you're
Speaker 6: seeing Joe Biden's peak right now. In his career as president,
Speaker 6: he is delivering time and again. He is passing historic
Speaker 6: pieces of legislation from infrastructure to climate change to prescription
Speaker 6: drug reforms that bring prices down for seniors that no
Speaker 6: president's been able to do before. And he's also standing
Speaker 6: with our allies abroad defending Ukraine in Israel from barbarica
Speaker 6: attacks from either a terror script or authoritarian regime. And
Speaker 6: I'm proud of the work he's doing in foreign policy
Speaker 6: to strengthen NATO and hold firm of their allies like Israel.
Speaker 4: U Crane.
Speaker 2: Well, let's hear from Bill Ackman, then we'll get to
Speaker 2: speaking of peaking. Here's how he put it in conversation
Speaker 2: with Bloomberg.
Speaker 7: Rick Listen, there's actually an interesting candidate who just announced
Speaker 7: his candidacy on the Democratic side that I would say.
Speaker 7: No one has heard of a congressman named Dean Phillips,
Speaker 7: so you probably have heard of him, may know him.
Speaker 7: Met with him recently. I was impressed. I think the best.
Speaker 7: I think Biden's done a lot of good things, but
Speaker 7: I think his legacy will not be a good one
Speaker 7: if he is the nominee. I do think the right
Speaker 7: thing for Biden to do is to step aside and
Speaker 7: to say he's not going to run and create the
Speaker 7: opportunity for some competition of old.
Speaker 2: Step aside, say he's not going to run. I've peaked. Meanwhile,
Speaker 2: Rick Jamie Diamond is urging. He says even liberal Democrats
Speaker 2: to back Nikki Haley. Should Joe Biden worry about what
Speaker 2: billionaires think?
Speaker 5: No, Joe Biden shouldn't give it a second thought, but
Speaker 5: he should care about what is Democratic voters think, and
Speaker 5: they actually echo a little bit of what Bill Lackman's saying.
Speaker 5: They are not happy with his performance in office. As
Speaker 5: Brad was saying, I mean, it's a Democrat. It's hard
Speaker 5: to manage a group voters like that. They're very different ideologically,
Speaker 5: but they have an incumbent president and they're putting that
Speaker 5: at risk. Democrats alone could lose this election no help
Speaker 5: from the Independence, who, by the way, aren't also buying
Speaker 5: the Biden administration's case for reelection. So Republicans are sort
Speaker 5: of done right, we could like call out today and
Speaker 5: if the election were held today, the Republicans will vote
Speaker 5: exactly the same way they're going to do in November,
Speaker 5: regardless of who the Republican nominee is. There's a substantial
Speaker 5: difference in how Democrats and Independence see a reelection of
Speaker 5: Joe Biden a different Democrat or even a potential third
Speaker 5: party entrant in this and that's the wild card that
Speaker 5: this Biden campaign has to start to deal with. And
Speaker 5: it's basically been the campaign from nowhere, right, I mean, like,
Speaker 5: where are they today, what are they doing? How are
Speaker 5: they trying to help him win these constituencies?
Speaker 1: Back.
Speaker 5: It's their own base that, according to this Gallup poll,
Speaker 5: they don't like what he's doing in Ukraine, they don't
Speaker 5: like what he's doing in Israel, they don't like what
Speaker 5: he's doing on the economy. These are Democrats saying things.
Speaker 5: They got to get that straight.
Speaker 2: Today, Brad Axios decided to take a look at Arab
Speaker 2: American and Muslim American anger over President Biden's handling of
Speaker 2: the Israel Hamas War. Interesting numbers here. They're looking at Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania,
Speaker 2: and Virginia, all of course important swing states that have
Speaker 2: sizeable populations of both. The Arab American Institute estimating from
Speaker 2: its own polling about fifty nine percent of Arab American
Speaker 2: voters supported Joe Biden in twenty twenty. It says polling
Speaker 2: indicates a dramatic decline in recent weeks, and that would
Speaker 2: that would jive with what we've heard about younger voters
Speaker 2: eighteen to thirty four who were upset about the loss
Speaker 2: of civilian life and Joe Biden's full throated support for Israel.
Speaker 2: All of these knowing how narrow divisions are and how
Speaker 2: close the selection is going to be, either way, all
Speaker 2: of these could be game changers. How much of a
Speaker 2: problem is this now for Joe Biden.
Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it is a problem, But you know,
Speaker 6: I also understand polling after crises like the one we're
Speaker 6: facing the Israel is temporary and volatile. It always is,
Speaker 6: and it will not be at this level a year
Speaker 6: from now, regardless of the situation in conflict. Maybe different
Speaker 6: issues and different concerns, but you're talking the debate around
Speaker 6: the war in Israel is so emotionally charged at the
Speaker 6: moment that you kind of have to let that polling,
Speaker 6: you know, fizzle out and then address it in the
Speaker 6: longer term. But it is a problem. But I think
Speaker 6: for all the times that Republicans accused President Biden not
Speaker 6: standing up to the far left elements of his party,
Speaker 6: where the progressive winking his party, which he has time
Speaker 6: and again when you look at the legislation he's passed,
Speaker 6: this is another instance where the president is standing up
Speaker 6: to the far left elements of his party and doing
Speaker 6: what he thinks is right for the American people and
Speaker 6: for the long term national security interests of the country.
Speaker 6: And so, you know, I think this is going to
Speaker 6: This is a tense moment in American politics on both
Speaker 6: sides of the isle, and I think we'll continue to
Speaker 6: see how this plays out. He's got to do some
Speaker 6: work to build relationships and repair those relations in the
Speaker 6: Muslim community and in the progressive community. But you know,
Speaker 6: I think from before Republicans jump up and down, they're
Speaker 6: not exactly running to the president of the Republican side
Speaker 6: where Donald Trump is proposing a national but Muslim fan.
Speaker 2: Again, listen, that's a great point. I guess it becomes
Speaker 2: a story of turnout at that point. But no, these
Speaker 2: are not going to be converted to the Trump base.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us
Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the
Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on
Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast.
Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe
Speaker 2: Matthew at World Headquarters in New York, joined now by
Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines at Bloomberg's bureau in Washington, d C. Kaylee,
Speaker 2: it's great to see if we've got what could be
Speaker 2: breaking news coming here. The latest from Israel is pretty remarkable, Kaylee,
Speaker 2: as negotiators go for another extension. Here we're in day six.
Speaker 2: Remember we had a four day pause or truce depending
Speaker 2: on who's talking about it, that has led to the
Speaker 2: release of dozens of hostages. We are, what a couple
Speaker 2: of hours away from what would have been the end
Speaker 2: of this truce. Negotiators including the CIA director, are in
Speaker 2: Cutter trying to see if they can push this forward
Speaker 2: once again.
Speaker 8: Yeah, there's a lot of different players in this game
Speaker 8: right now, Joe, as you say, the Biden administration, the
Speaker 8: CIA Director, the President himself have been pushing for this
Speaker 8: brief truce to last as long as possible due to
Speaker 8: humanitarian considerations. The Cutter is involved, Egypt is involved, a
Speaker 8: lot of mediators trying to see if they can prolong
Speaker 8: this brief piece between Israel and Hamas at least for
Speaker 8: another period of time. Knowing Joe that while there have
Speaker 8: been dozens, as you say, hostages released over the last
Speaker 8: several days, there are still many more being held in Gaza,
Speaker 8: though not all of them are being held actively by Hamas.
Speaker 2: Is our understanding right so far, and our numbers might
Speaker 2: sound or look a little bit differ because not all
Speaker 2: of the hostages were released by Hamas, but so far
Speaker 2: the group has freed eighty one hostages, mainly women and children.
Speaker 2: Israel Kayley says they have freed one hundred eighty Palestinians
Speaker 2: who were imprisoned, but we're still talking about it. At
Speaker 2: least well over one hundred hostages who are left, and
Speaker 2: we don't know where they all.
Speaker 8: Are, yeah, exactly, and a number of them understood to
Speaker 8: be American as well, Joe. So there is still work
Speaker 8: to be done here and ultimately more humanitarian aid that
Speaker 8: needs to get in, not just hostages that need to
Speaker 8: get out. The question is whether or not another agreement
Speaker 8: can be made, knowing the longer this truce goes on,
Speaker 8: potentially the more opportunity it gives Hamas to regroup. And
Speaker 8: as we've had conversations on this show as well as
Speaker 8: well as on balance of power, the humanitarian consideration, the
Speaker 8: consideration for the hostages may at some point run into
Speaker 8: conflict with israel strategic objectives, as Netanyahu still says they
Speaker 8: will go back to fighting until the end intel Hamas
Speaker 8: has been eliminated.
Speaker 2: Well, let's start our conversation with Michael O'Hanlon, a senior
Speaker 2: fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he is director of
Speaker 2: Research and Foreign Policy and a very reliable voice on
Speaker 2: what's happening in this part of the world. Michael, it's
Speaker 2: good to see you. Thank you. We understand negotiators are
Speaker 2: talking about potentially another two days. Is that realistic? Are
Speaker 2: you optimistic?
Speaker 4: Readings?
Speaker 9: Well, optimism isn't really a word. I allow myself to
Speaker 9: feel too much of how this war at the moment,
Speaker 9: because yes, two days of additional relief would be great,
Speaker 9: But of course it does, as you just pointed out,
Speaker 9: beg the question of what comes next, and how long
Speaker 9: whatever comes next would last, and what kinds of constraints
Speaker 9: would be placed upon the use of force, how many
Speaker 9: Palestinians would suffer, how many Israelis would continue to suffer.
Speaker 9: So I do think there's a distinct possibility that you
Speaker 9: could imagine if more hostages are potentially released or proposed
Speaker 9: for release, than that could certainly lead Israel to accept
Speaker 9: the burdens that Kylie just pointed out of or the
Speaker 9: potential costs of giving Hamas a little more time to regroup.
Speaker 9: And you know, I'm not sure those costs are that
Speaker 9: high at this point. If Hamas has already had several.
Speaker 4: Days, you know, almost a week. Two more days may
Speaker 4: not make a big difference.
Speaker 9: So I think Israel, if we can get more hostages back,
Speaker 9: probably would be inclined to do this. And Israel's probably
Speaker 9: still refining what it wants to do militarily in the
Speaker 9: Southern Pirate Oza in particular, where we see there's been
Speaker 9: a debate with the United States about just what kind
Speaker 9: of force to use, whether to get close to hospitals
Speaker 9: and other such facilities, whether to use certain kinds of
Speaker 9: weapons or not. And to the extent, Israel still processing
Speaker 9: all that conflicting advice, you know, advice from the Americans,
Speaker 9: advice from its own military leadership, desires to eliminate hamas
Speaker 9: as much as possible.
Speaker 4: It may welcome a couple more tastes for planning.
Speaker 8: Well, you say, eliminating hamas as much as possible, how
Speaker 8: much realistically is possible, as Netnilahu was promising to see
Speaker 8: this through until the very end. Are we looking at
Speaker 8: potentially indefinite conflict here?
Speaker 9: Well, we in the United States remember well, of course,
Speaker 9: how we felt after nine to eleven, and at that time,
Speaker 9: the notion of seeing any al Qaeda fighters survive our
Speaker 9: retaliation probably would have been seen as unacceptable, but we
Speaker 9: all know that twenty years later, there's still al Qaeda
Speaker 9: out there. Most of them, of course, are people who
Speaker 9: were not in the ranks on September eleventh, two thousand
Speaker 9: and one. But some of the original supporters of that
Speaker 9: organization we never were able to find. They could just
Speaker 9: put down their guns and blend back into a population.
Speaker 9: Depending on where they were, there might or might not
Speaker 9: ever be intelligence about what they had done to implicate
Speaker 9: themselves in that original attack or other al Qaeda activities.
Speaker 9: Hamas is the same, you know, the leadership, the top leadership,
Speaker 9: and those who cross the border on October seventh. Presumably
Speaker 9: Israel is going to work its very hardest and be
Speaker 9: willing to take some risks and pay some serious costs
Speaker 9: to get those people. But even that group of you know,
Speaker 9: a few hundred or into a couple thousand, is going
Speaker 9: to be hard to identify with complete precision and complete thoroughness.
Speaker 9: And the other thirty thousand ish Hamas fighters who at
Speaker 9: one time or another have taken up weapons for the organization,
Speaker 9: I think are going to be a human intelligence challenge
Speaker 9: that Israel can never figure out. Terms of having any
Speaker 9: kind of basis to say who exactly is Hamas and
Speaker 9: who's not. So if you literally take the idea of
Speaker 9: getting rid of every single Hamas fighter to its logical conclusion,
Speaker 9: you specify a strategy for a war that cannot be one,
Speaker 9: cannot be successfully accomplished, and will cause certainly huge numbers
Speaker 9: of casualties along the way. Israel's going to have to
Speaker 9: scale back from that ambition. They're going to have to
Speaker 9: focus on leadership on the most lethal trigger pollers, on weapons, caches,
Speaker 9: training facilities, major infrastructure, major command and control capabilities, and
Speaker 9: that's going to have to be their definition of the
Speaker 9: Hamas they destroy. Together with the idea of Hamas as
Speaker 9: the government for Gaza. I think most of those goals
Speaker 9: are largely within reach.
Speaker 2: We know that Israel has been provided the names of
Speaker 2: another group of hostages due to be freed today. But
Speaker 2: Michael I get nervous about headlines like this one that
Speaker 2: we're seeing from Hamas and a claim that the youngest
Speaker 2: of the Israeli hostages. We've been hearing a lot about
Speaker 2: a ten month old boy named Kiefer Bebus. His brother
Speaker 2: and mother, they say are no longer alive. There was
Speaker 2: hope that those names would be in this batch provided
Speaker 2: to the Israelis Today, Michael, if this turns out to
Speaker 2: be true, this is the type of headline that can
Speaker 2: change this conversation very quickly.
Speaker 9: You're right, and we obviously always want to bear in
Speaker 9: mind the very human and individual costs of this conflict,
Speaker 9: and any casualty is one too many. But I have
Speaker 9: to say, at a level of military and strategic analysis,
Speaker 9: I'm surprised how many hostages apparently are still alive. And
Speaker 9: I would have thought that Hamas might have been trying
Speaker 9: to deter Israel's initial air strikes and artillery strikes by
Speaker 9: putting more of the hostages near the likely targets of
Speaker 9: those strikes. So the fact that we are still in
Speaker 9: a world where a lot of the hostages are alive,
Speaker 9: to me is hopeful, and you know, it's a silver
Speaker 9: lining of hopefulness in what's an enormous tragedy, and they
Speaker 9: are going to still be individual tragedies, I'm afraid, as
Speaker 9: you point out.
Speaker 8: Yeah, absolutely, and again returning to where we began this conversation,
Speaker 8: there is effort underway to prevent potentially any tragedy from occurring.
Speaker 8: For much longer keeping the pause and fighting going, including
Speaker 8: reporting today from Bloomberg that Saudi Arabia is now in
Speaker 8: discussion with Iran about making investments into that heavily sanctioned
Speaker 8: economy in return for Iran stopping the backing of some
Speaker 8: of its proxies, avoiding this conflict spreading any further regionally. Michael,
Speaker 8: what do you think about that?
Speaker 9: Well, you know, that's the kind of hope we all
Speaker 9: have had for the Middle East for decades that's always
Speaker 9: been dashed.
Speaker 4: You know, the idea of having a two state.
Speaker 9: Solution, but otherwise good governance throughout the region that allows
Speaker 9: for people to pursue prosperity, and that maybe benefits from
Speaker 9: some of the richer states investing in some of the
Speaker 9: poorest states. I mean, these are kind of the dreams
Speaker 9: or the aspirations upon which a lot of Middle Eastern
Speaker 9: policy has been based for decades. But look where we
Speaker 9: are even here in twenty twenty three, where for a
Speaker 9: lot of groups, the idea of being rejectionists, the idea
Speaker 9: of impeding the progress of one's hated adversaries, actually seems
Speaker 9: to matter more than the benefits of one's own future generations.
Speaker 9: What was the line, I forget you know the famous
Speaker 9: adage that was only going to be peace in the
Speaker 9: Middle East when people start loving the loving their own
Speaker 9: grand children more than they hate their enemies, and allow
Speaker 9: that prosperity, allow that investment that you just mentioned to
Speaker 9: actually happen. But unfortunately, an example this past October where Hamas,
Speaker 9: perhaps eg gone by Iran or perhaps just resourced more
Speaker 9: generally by Iran, didn't like the possibility of the Saudis
Speaker 9: and the Israelis getting a lot better, which would have
Speaker 9: facilitated investment in the region and greater economic cooperation in
Speaker 9: the region, and so they carried out the October seventh
Speaker 9: attacks precisely to prevent that sort of positive development.
Speaker 2: Well, well, we're compelled by it, not only by the story.
Speaker 2: Is such a power play potentially by Saudi Arabia, But
Speaker 2: remembering where we were a couple of weeks ago, Michael,
Speaker 2: when all the talk was about a second or third front.
Speaker 2: If the minimum is achieved here in Saudi Arabia can
Speaker 2: convince Iran or pay Iran to keep its proxies in check,
Speaker 2: and this remains a war largely between Israel and Hamas.
Speaker 2: Is that not progress?
Speaker 4: Yes, that would be excellent. I'm just doubting whether it
Speaker 4: will happen.
Speaker 9: I'm not challenging your contention that it would be progress.
Speaker 9: Thing that turned people more towards building a peaceful, prosperous
Speaker 9: future and away from inciting violence and tearing each other
Speaker 9: down would be great.
Speaker 4: But you know, I don't see a lot of basis
Speaker 4: for thinking.
Speaker 9: That's where Ron's headspace or mindset is right now.
Speaker 8: And of course, this idea of how the Greater Region
Speaker 8: fits in and ensuring that the conflict does not spill
Speaker 8: over into other parts of it is one of the
Speaker 8: objectives of Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln as he makes
Speaker 8: another trip to this region. He's made multiple since October seventh,
Speaker 8: when this conflict started. What happens if we don't get
Speaker 8: an extension of the truth when Blincoln is there.
Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know.
Speaker 9: At least he would be there to try to remind
Speaker 9: the Israelis to use force more carefully in the next round.
Speaker 9: You know, I mean, first of all, that guy's a workhorse,
Speaker 9: and I just I'm astounded at how hard he's been working.
Speaker 9: But secondly, I also hope that he's got time and
Speaker 9: energy to think about not just the tactical data of
Speaker 9: extending a seaspire, but also where we're headed with this,
Speaker 9: and I don't I'm sure there are a lot of
Speaker 9: people working for him who are thinking about that question,
Speaker 9: but I think it's time to think about using some
Speaker 9: a fair amount of American leverage here to push the
Speaker 9: parties towards some kind of a durable conflict resolution strategy
Speaker 9: that they may not completely love, but that will leave
Speaker 9: the place more stable long term. What I'm basically saying
Speaker 9: is trying to work with others in the region to
Speaker 9: impose some elements of a two state solution coming out
Speaker 9: of this, rather than just.
Speaker 4: Wait for everyone to get to it. And I realized
Speaker 4: we can't.
Speaker 9: Literally impose it, but we have a lot more leverage
Speaker 9: with all parties in the region than we're often prepared
Speaker 9: to acknowledge. And I hope there's some time and attention
Speaker 9: and just you know, enough energy in his body for
Speaker 9: that kind of question to be addressable and not just
Speaker 9: these immediate questions of extending sea spires.
Speaker 2: I want to hear your reaction to something that the
Speaker 2: Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln said, looking beyond the immediate
Speaker 2: term here, we're talking about the minute to minute, hour
Speaker 2: to hour situation on the ground in Gaza. Listen to
Speaker 2: Secretary of State blink and talk about the road ahead, Michael,
Speaker 2: and we'll have you respond here.
Speaker 10: He is everyone is focused on the day of what's
Speaker 10: happening in Gaza right now, but we also need to
Speaker 10: be focused at the same time, and we are in
Speaker 10: conversations with many other countries on what I called both
Speaker 10: the day after and the day after the day after.
Speaker 2: What does the day after the day after look like, Michael,
Speaker 2: when none of Israel's neighbors will accept refugees, for instance.
Speaker 9: Well, I think that the idea of a two stage
Speaker 9: post conflict strategy is correct, because in the first instance,
Speaker 9: what you need to do is allow life to resume
Speaker 9: and start to create some kinds of governance structures that
Speaker 9: are not just Israel occupying Gaza, but the international community
Speaker 9: and Stenians themselves gradually entering into some kind of greater
Speaker 9: role in at least the civilian governance of Gasa, but
Speaker 9: then longer term. I hope what he's alluding to is
Speaker 9: a two state solution that we somehow use this terrible
Speaker 9: tragedy and crisis as a way to make possible what
Speaker 9: wasn't before, because now at least people realize how bad
Speaker 9: things can be if we just stay stuck in negotiation paralysis,
Speaker 9: as we've been for the better part of two or
Speaker 9: three decades now. So the day after, to use his framing,
Speaker 9: is presumably when the conflict stops and you start to recover.
Speaker 4: The day after the day after.
Speaker 9: Is presumably when you get to a maybe it's even
Speaker 9: a three step process, but you get to a long term,
Speaker 9: viable Palestinian polity that can avoid violence in the future
Speaker 9: and help its own people do better.
Speaker 2: Michael, great conversation. I'm really glad you could join us today.
Speaker 2: Let's not let too much time go by Michael Hanlett
Speaker 2: the Brookings Institution with Kaylee in Washington. I'm Joe Matthew
Speaker 2: in New York. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to
Speaker 2: the Sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you
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