1 00:00:00,880 --> 00:00:04,400 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 2 00:00:04,400 --> 00:00:07,520 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 3 00:00:07,640 --> 00:00:10,719 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 4 00:00:10,800 --> 00:00:12,800 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcasts. 5 00:00:14,400 --> 00:00:18,079 Speaker 2: First, our conversation, which I just mentioned with Congresswoman Nicole 6 00:00:18,120 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 2: Mally Gattaca. She's with us right now from Capitol Hill 7 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:22,959 Speaker 2: on what is an important day for her and for 8 00:00:23,040 --> 00:00:26,360 Speaker 2: the body is lawmakers get back together and, as I mentioned, 9 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:30,760 Speaker 2: seek progress on a border deal. And Congresswoman, we thank 10 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 2: you for joining here. It looks like your bill h R. 11 00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 2: Five two eighty three is going to get a vote 12 00:00:36,520 --> 00:00:39,360 Speaker 2: right after we talk here today. The Protecting our Communities 13 00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:42,640 Speaker 2: from Failure to Secure the Border Act is what it's 14 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:45,320 Speaker 2: called here. Of course, the migrant crisis in New York 15 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 2: is not lost on US. Congresswoman, how would it change that? 16 00:00:50,479 --> 00:00:53,599 Speaker 3: Well, look, obviously the crisis has gotten out of control, 17 00:00:53,840 --> 00:00:58,560 Speaker 3: and the President unfortunately refuses to undo his executive orders 18 00:00:59,080 --> 00:01:03,080 Speaker 3: and present I mean, I'm sorry, Senator Schumer refuses to 19 00:01:03,080 --> 00:01:05,760 Speaker 3: bring our Border Security Act, which passed in May, to 20 00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:08,759 Speaker 3: the floor for a vote that would end this crisis 21 00:01:08,760 --> 00:01:11,320 Speaker 3: by reverting back to the policies of the previous administration 22 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:13,600 Speaker 3: that we're working to stem the flow. So what I'm 23 00:01:13,640 --> 00:01:16,920 Speaker 3: trying to simply do here is to prohibit federal funds 24 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:20,440 Speaker 3: from now being used to allow for our national parks 25 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:23,320 Speaker 3: to be turned into encampment. Those listening from New York 26 00:01:23,360 --> 00:01:26,560 Speaker 3: City understands that Floyd Bennett Field, which was a park 27 00:01:26,680 --> 00:01:30,720 Speaker 3: enjoyed by over one hundred thousand New Yorkers annually, has 28 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,560 Speaker 3: now been made a migrant encampment for roughly two to 29 00:01:34,640 --> 00:01:38,880 Speaker 3: three thousand individuals. So it's number one, inappropriate, it's wrong 30 00:01:38,959 --> 00:01:41,840 Speaker 3: to take these public spaces from our citizens. And number two, 31 00:01:41,880 --> 00:01:44,800 Speaker 3: it's just simply unsustainable. Look what is happening in New 32 00:01:44,880 --> 00:01:47,360 Speaker 3: York right now with our mayor saying they need to 33 00:01:47,400 --> 00:01:50,800 Speaker 3: do slash across the board cuts billions of dollars that 34 00:01:50,840 --> 00:01:54,560 Speaker 3: they're spending on this migrant crisis that was self made, 35 00:01:54,560 --> 00:01:56,960 Speaker 3: by the way, because of the policies of the president 36 00:01:57,160 --> 00:02:00,280 Speaker 3: and then the misinterpretation of the right to shelter law 37 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 3: by our mayor. So those two things have created this mess. 38 00:02:04,080 --> 00:02:05,040 Speaker 3: We need to just stop it. 39 00:02:05,160 --> 00:02:05,520 Speaker 2: People. 40 00:02:05,640 --> 00:02:07,919 Speaker 3: We are a welcoming nation, we are a welcoming city. 41 00:02:08,120 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 3: I'm the daughter of immigrants myself, but people have to 42 00:02:10,600 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 3: follow the proper process, and the proper process, by the way, 43 00:02:14,320 --> 00:02:17,320 Speaker 3: for asylum is you apply from the next safe country. 44 00:02:17,639 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 3: We have people from over one hundred and twenty countries 45 00:02:20,919 --> 00:02:24,040 Speaker 3: claiming asylum at our border when we're only bordered by 46 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:26,920 Speaker 3: two countries, So people are abusing the system. Not to 47 00:02:26,919 --> 00:02:31,280 Speaker 3: mention that fifty percent of those cases are denied in court, 48 00:02:31,280 --> 00:02:33,600 Speaker 3: which means people are utilizing this to gain access to 49 00:02:33,639 --> 00:02:35,799 Speaker 3: our country, but they don't even have legitimate claims, and 50 00:02:35,840 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 3: they're hurting all the people that are in the system 51 00:02:38,120 --> 00:02:40,520 Speaker 3: waiting but followed the rules and have done everything right. 52 00:02:40,560 --> 00:02:42,600 Speaker 2: Well, I want to definitely talk to you about asylum law. 53 00:02:42,600 --> 00:02:44,400 Speaker 2: There are a couple of very specific questions I have 54 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:46,679 Speaker 2: for you, Congresswoman. It's not lost on me, though, that 55 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,240 Speaker 2: you mentioned the Floyd Bennett field in Brooklyn, New York 56 00:02:50,160 --> 00:02:53,000 Speaker 2: on the Historic Registry. We understand that a lot of 57 00:02:53,040 --> 00:02:55,320 Speaker 2: migrants who have been sent there got on a bus 58 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:58,600 Speaker 2: and went right back to Manhattan because there was nothing 59 00:02:58,639 --> 00:03:00,880 Speaker 2: there for their families. They didn't know how to get 60 00:03:00,919 --> 00:03:04,360 Speaker 2: their kids to school. Do you have the votes to 61 00:03:04,480 --> 00:03:05,280 Speaker 2: pass this bill? 62 00:03:06,960 --> 00:03:08,680 Speaker 3: I do believe we have the votes and I do 63 00:03:08,760 --> 00:03:11,760 Speaker 3: believe that it will pass with a bipartisan vote, as 64 00:03:11,760 --> 00:03:16,040 Speaker 3: it did in the committee earlier this month or last month. 65 00:03:16,680 --> 00:03:18,680 Speaker 3: But what I'll say is this, You're right, and it's 66 00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:22,200 Speaker 3: not safe for the migrants either. Right, there's been significant 67 00:03:22,320 --> 00:03:26,480 Speaker 3: flooding on that property. It was really devastated during Hurricane Sandy. 68 00:03:26,480 --> 00:03:29,240 Speaker 3: But even during a terrible rainstorm like we had a 69 00:03:29,280 --> 00:03:32,160 Speaker 3: few weeks ago, it had about it had, you know, 70 00:03:32,440 --> 00:03:37,000 Speaker 3: a foot of water. So it's not safe for anybody involved. 71 00:03:37,240 --> 00:03:39,400 Speaker 3: And the reality is the mayor just has to stop 72 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:42,040 Speaker 3: doing what he's doing, and the President needs to take 73 00:03:42,080 --> 00:03:45,120 Speaker 3: action to secure the border. And you mentioned your comprehensive 74 00:03:45,160 --> 00:03:48,680 Speaker 3: immigration reform. Yes, I mean the Republicans certainly want border security, 75 00:03:48,680 --> 00:03:52,040 Speaker 3: but we're willing to work with the Democrats on more 76 00:03:52,120 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 3: visas to make sure people can come and work legally. 77 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 3: We do have an employment issue in our country where 78 00:03:57,120 --> 00:04:01,400 Speaker 3: we have a worker shortage. This can be addressedic. It 79 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 3: could be a win win if we do it right. 80 00:04:03,440 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 3: But the bottom line is the process needs to be 81 00:04:05,720 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 3: appropriate and legal. Okay, what's happening right now? Who's benefiting 82 00:04:09,920 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 3: the drug cartels who are being paid thousands of dollars 83 00:04:13,400 --> 00:04:17,159 Speaker 3: per person to smuggle these individuals into our southern border. 84 00:04:17,160 --> 00:04:21,360 Speaker 3: We know from Doctors Without Borders their recent report hundreds 85 00:04:21,360 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 3: of these individuals and just Panama, by the way, in 86 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:27,240 Speaker 3: one month they had been raped women and children. So 87 00:04:27,279 --> 00:04:32,440 Speaker 3: it's very dangerous. It's treacherous. People drown daily and not daily, 88 00:04:32,520 --> 00:04:35,200 Speaker 3: but regularly. In Eagle Pass US this weekend there were fourteen. 89 00:04:36,640 --> 00:04:39,080 Speaker 2: Well, let's talk about specifics in here, Congressman, if we could, 90 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,240 Speaker 2: I'd like to ask you about asylum reform. I'd like 91 00:04:41,320 --> 00:04:44,200 Speaker 2: to ask you about the parole system. These are things 92 00:04:44,279 --> 00:04:46,839 Speaker 2: that our listeners are really kind of keying into now 93 00:04:47,279 --> 00:04:50,360 Speaker 2: as the contours of a potential deal come together. We're 94 00:04:50,400 --> 00:04:53,440 Speaker 2: hearing from Democrats in the Senate congresswomen who say they 95 00:04:53,480 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 2: are open to changing asylum law. What does that look 96 00:04:58,440 --> 00:05:00,880 Speaker 2: like when we come back to it. Is it a 97 00:05:00,920 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 2: toughening of standards for those who can express credible fear, 98 00:05:06,040 --> 00:05:09,320 Speaker 2: for instance, coming from other nations. What would a change 99 00:05:09,320 --> 00:05:11,160 Speaker 2: in asylum law look like to you? 100 00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:14,960 Speaker 3: Well, first of all, we need to add more judges 101 00:05:15,000 --> 00:05:18,799 Speaker 3: and asylum officers to actually hear these cases and determine 102 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,200 Speaker 3: at the border whether they are legitimate cases or not. 103 00:05:22,200 --> 00:05:24,400 Speaker 3: Because Like I said, fifty percent of these cases are 104 00:05:24,440 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 3: not legitimate. They get denied in court, and meanwhile they're 105 00:05:27,279 --> 00:05:29,360 Speaker 3: clogging off the system. The second thing we need to 106 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:32,359 Speaker 3: change is this last in, first out system that this 107 00:05:32,440 --> 00:05:35,599 Speaker 3: administration is put in place, where somebody comes over the border, 108 00:05:35,640 --> 00:05:38,760 Speaker 3: they're actually first to be heard in court as opposed 109 00:05:38,800 --> 00:05:41,359 Speaker 3: to people who have been waiting in line. That's really 110 00:05:41,480 --> 00:05:43,960 Speaker 3: unfair to those have been waiting years to be able 111 00:05:44,000 --> 00:05:46,279 Speaker 3: to hear their cases and now they're being shoved further 112 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,800 Speaker 3: back in the line because of this mass migration from board. 113 00:05:49,760 --> 00:05:51,920 Speaker 3: A third of all, we need to enforce the law 114 00:05:51,920 --> 00:05:54,360 Speaker 3: that says that you have to go to the next 115 00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,760 Speaker 3: safe country. By those By that standard, only people from 116 00:05:57,800 --> 00:06:00,799 Speaker 3: Mexico or Canada would be coming to the United States, 117 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:03,440 Speaker 3: and that would certainly stem the flow. People would apply 118 00:06:03,520 --> 00:06:05,320 Speaker 3: from the next safe country and then they could wait 119 00:06:05,640 --> 00:06:07,560 Speaker 3: until their court date, and then they. 120 00:06:07,480 --> 00:06:11,920 Speaker 2: Could should that in Mexico policy as well well. 121 00:06:11,680 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 3: If they yes, well it should if they are coming 122 00:06:15,600 --> 00:06:17,839 Speaker 3: from a third country. That's what I'm trying to say. 123 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:20,279 Speaker 3: We can actually address all of it where they don't 124 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 3: need to stay in Mexico, they would stay in the 125 00:06:22,160 --> 00:06:24,680 Speaker 3: next safe country and that's really what the remain in 126 00:06:24,720 --> 00:06:27,000 Speaker 3: Mexico was all about. It wasn't it just about having 127 00:06:27,080 --> 00:06:29,000 Speaker 3: people from all these countries stay on the other side 128 00:06:29,040 --> 00:06:30,000 Speaker 3: of the Mexican border. 129 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:31,159 Speaker 2: It was more about. 130 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:34,640 Speaker 3: Staying in the next safe country and applying from there 131 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:36,760 Speaker 3: and then waiting your turn in court. So I think 132 00:06:36,760 --> 00:06:40,240 Speaker 3: if we do those things and add the border security provisions, 133 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:43,279 Speaker 3: we would really shut this thing down and have a 134 00:06:43,360 --> 00:06:47,400 Speaker 3: more controllable process. Remember ten years waiting period right now 135 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:48,520 Speaker 3: to get a court date in. 136 00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:49,279 Speaker 2: New York City. 137 00:06:49,600 --> 00:06:52,120 Speaker 3: So adding the judges and asylum offices is a big 138 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:53,760 Speaker 3: part of it. But we also have to stem the 139 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:56,520 Speaker 3: flow at the border and its visas. 140 00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:58,760 Speaker 2: It appears that there's some common ground on that that 141 00:06:58,760 --> 00:07:01,719 Speaker 2: that actually you might in fact get Democrats and Republicans together. 142 00:07:01,760 --> 00:07:04,000 Speaker 2: The sticking point appears to be the parole system as 143 00:07:04,040 --> 00:07:08,120 Speaker 2: it's called, which allows essentially the president to give humanitarian 144 00:07:08,160 --> 00:07:12,280 Speaker 2: exceptions to people from countries like we're seeing now Venezuela, Cuba, 145 00:07:12,320 --> 00:07:15,800 Speaker 2: and some others here. Tom Taillis said on the Senate side, 146 00:07:15,840 --> 00:07:19,120 Speaker 2: of course, a Republican asylum reform is not enough to 147 00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:21,120 Speaker 2: get us to the number that we need. So what 148 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:23,000 Speaker 2: happens to the parole system. 149 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 3: Well, you know what, my mother was a Cuban refugee, 150 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,440 Speaker 3: and so I relate to those individuals from Cuba and 151 00:07:29,520 --> 00:07:35,360 Speaker 3: Venezuela who are escaping socialist policies from communist policies, and 152 00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:39,480 Speaker 3: I think that we can certainly look, this is what 153 00:07:39,520 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 3: happened though. The president issued this parole, but then he 154 00:07:42,200 --> 00:07:44,960 Speaker 3: didn't enforce the border law. So the idea of the 155 00:07:45,000 --> 00:07:48,240 Speaker 3: parole was so the people from Venezuela can apply via 156 00:07:48,320 --> 00:07:51,000 Speaker 3: parole instead of coming to the border. And now it 157 00:07:51,040 --> 00:07:53,480 Speaker 3: was supposed to shut down Venezuela's coming from the border, 158 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,680 Speaker 3: but that did not happen because he managed to keep 159 00:07:55,720 --> 00:07:59,040 Speaker 3: the system the borders open. So there's a limit to 160 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:02,080 Speaker 3: the number of parole. But then you were not enforcing 161 00:08:02,520 --> 00:08:04,960 Speaker 3: the people who did not apply by parole but then 162 00:08:05,040 --> 00:08:07,520 Speaker 3: came to the border regardless, and that was the whole 163 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:09,800 Speaker 3: point of parole was so they didn't come to the border. 164 00:08:09,840 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 3: So you have to have enforcement right anyway you look 165 00:08:12,400 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 3: at it. We need to have enforcement the southern border. 166 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 3: It's not just because the flow of migrants is unsustainable. 167 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:22,440 Speaker 3: It is because it is completely unsafe. We have drug 168 00:08:22,480 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 3: cartels who are pushing drugs over the border. They are 169 00:08:25,360 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 3: setting up shop in New York City. I just had 170 00:08:28,320 --> 00:08:31,920 Speaker 3: a meeting today with a Drug Enforcement administration very concerning. 171 00:08:31,960 --> 00:08:38,840 Speaker 3: They intercepted two hundred thousand pounds of fetanyl or derivatives, 172 00:08:38,880 --> 00:08:42,559 Speaker 3: and that is certainly something that we have to take 173 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:45,640 Speaker 3: seriously as we see well over one hundred thousand Americans 174 00:08:45,720 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 3: dying from these drug overdoses. So there's a lot here 175 00:08:49,720 --> 00:08:53,120 Speaker 3: that is a problem because of our open border. And 176 00:08:53,240 --> 00:08:57,120 Speaker 3: what I would say is Republicans want to see border security. 177 00:08:57,160 --> 00:09:00,560 Speaker 3: We will not give this administration more money to continue 178 00:09:00,600 --> 00:09:05,560 Speaker 3: processing paperwork. Want we want our CBP to actually do 179 00:09:05,640 --> 00:09:08,880 Speaker 3: their job, and that means keeping the border secure so 180 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:11,959 Speaker 3: we know who is coming in and out. One point 181 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 3: seven million. One point seven million individuals aside from the 182 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:18,079 Speaker 3: six million that had come in and applied for asylum, 183 00:09:18,360 --> 00:09:21,760 Speaker 3: have come in undetected. That is what CBP estimates. We 184 00:09:21,800 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 3: don't know who they are, where they are, what their 185 00:09:23,840 --> 00:09:26,560 Speaker 3: intentions are, and that is very concerning to me as 186 00:09:26,559 --> 00:09:28,400 Speaker 3: a New York City representative in a post nine to 187 00:09:28,400 --> 00:09:28,960 Speaker 3: eleven world. 188 00:09:29,080 --> 00:09:31,640 Speaker 2: You are definitely passionate about this, Congresswoman, but I do 189 00:09:31,679 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 2: want to ask you about another matter facing the Republican 190 00:09:34,320 --> 00:09:37,080 Speaker 2: conference now, and that is, of course, someone from your 191 00:09:37,080 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 2: own delegation, George Santos, the Congressman from New York, who's 192 00:09:40,360 --> 00:09:43,560 Speaker 2: facing it appears an expulsion vote at some point in 193 00:09:43,600 --> 00:09:47,880 Speaker 2: the next twenty four hours or so. Will Republicans expel 194 00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:49,360 Speaker 2: George Santos from the House? 195 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,600 Speaker 3: Well, I, well, I think the majority of Republicans will, 196 00:09:53,960 --> 00:09:56,800 Speaker 3: and I think it will be a bipartisan vote, and 197 00:09:56,880 --> 00:10:00,840 Speaker 3: we need two thirds of the body to to expel 198 00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:03,600 Speaker 3: for it to be successful. I will be voting to 199 00:10:03,640 --> 00:10:07,600 Speaker 3: expel mister Santos. Look, we earlier this year referred it 200 00:10:07,640 --> 00:10:09,800 Speaker 3: to the Ethics Committee. We've asked them to do their 201 00:10:09,880 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 3: due diligence. They have. They issued thirty eight subpoenas, they 202 00:10:13,720 --> 00:10:16,840 Speaker 3: talked to forty different witnesses, They reviewed one hundred and 203 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:19,760 Speaker 3: seventy thousand pages of documents, and they were able to 204 00:10:19,960 --> 00:10:23,959 Speaker 3: produce the evidence and determine that mister Santos did, in 205 00:10:23,960 --> 00:10:29,679 Speaker 3: fact use his campaign donations for personal benefit, for botox, 206 00:10:29,800 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 3: for a porn website, for a purchase of luxury goods 207 00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:37,360 Speaker 3: at Ferragamo and Amez, and so we have to take 208 00:10:37,400 --> 00:10:39,640 Speaker 3: action and remove him. Now. He will have his day 209 00:10:39,640 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 3: in court as it relates to the criminal charges. But 210 00:10:42,480 --> 00:10:45,599 Speaker 3: in terms of being able to continue his service in Congress, 211 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:48,160 Speaker 3: we believe we have seen enough and that he does 212 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,760 Speaker 3: not merit to continue serving in this body, and his 213 00:10:50,840 --> 00:10:52,680 Speaker 3: constituents do deserve better. 214 00:10:53,800 --> 00:10:56,760 Speaker 2: Is this a good message for Republicans right now? Is 215 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:59,160 Speaker 2: there an opportunity for you to send this message to 216 00:10:59,240 --> 00:11:03,040 Speaker 2: voters to say that this is an act of responsibility 217 00:11:03,640 --> 00:11:06,439 Speaker 2: and that we intend to keep that seat because Democrats 218 00:11:06,480 --> 00:11:08,000 Speaker 2: think that they're going to flip that for you in 219 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:08,440 Speaker 2: New York. 220 00:11:09,679 --> 00:11:12,199 Speaker 3: Well, I do think it is an active responsibility. And look, 221 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,560 Speaker 3: the last time this happened, it was a Democrat and 222 00:11:14,559 --> 00:11:17,240 Speaker 3: it didn't be politicized. I mean, you have to remove 223 00:11:17,240 --> 00:11:20,200 Speaker 3: in individuals a bad apple like that. He lied his 224 00:11:20,240 --> 00:11:23,240 Speaker 3: way to get to Congress, and then he committed these 225 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:28,520 Speaker 3: horrific activities and inappropriate use and illegally use quite frankly 226 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:32,400 Speaker 3: of his donors' money. And so we believe that by 227 00:11:32,400 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 3: removing this bad apple, we will be better served as 228 00:11:35,360 --> 00:11:38,360 Speaker 3: an institution, as a party, and his district will be 229 00:11:38,400 --> 00:11:41,160 Speaker 3: able to elect someone who is not a fraud. And 230 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:43,920 Speaker 3: I do believe that Republicans can hold onto that seat 231 00:11:43,960 --> 00:11:46,079 Speaker 3: if you look what happened in Nasa County this year. 232 00:11:46,480 --> 00:11:49,319 Speaker 3: They have flipped everything. They have flipped their congressional seats, 233 00:11:49,320 --> 00:11:54,000 Speaker 3: they flipped their county executive, county legislature, the district attorney. 234 00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:56,360 Speaker 3: So Nasa County, I have good faith that they will 235 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,960 Speaker 3: be able to elect another Republican. But yes, it will 236 00:11:58,960 --> 00:12:01,520 Speaker 3: remain a competitive a seat as it has. 237 00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:01,839 Speaker 4: In the past. 238 00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:03,440 Speaker 2: You don't know what he's going to say eight o'clock 239 00:12:03,480 --> 00:12:05,800 Speaker 2: tomorrow morning. Do you have Have you heard from your 240 00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:08,280 Speaker 2: colleague from New York about what this news conference is about. 241 00:12:09,640 --> 00:12:12,440 Speaker 3: No, I have not heard, and I guess we'll find out. 242 00:12:12,800 --> 00:12:15,600 Speaker 3: Hopefully we'll be able to expel him prior to that. 243 00:12:15,840 --> 00:12:18,640 Speaker 2: Wow, what a day this is going to be. Congresswoman 244 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:20,920 Speaker 2: Nicole Malia Takis of New York with us. We appreciate 245 00:12:20,960 --> 00:12:22,880 Speaker 2: the time as always, Will your bill get a vote 246 00:12:22,880 --> 00:12:25,960 Speaker 2: at one point thirty as we're hearing, is at your expectation, yo. 247 00:12:26,280 --> 00:12:30,120 Speaker 3: The debate will begin at two pm and then we'll 248 00:12:30,120 --> 00:12:31,360 Speaker 3: have the vote following that. 249 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,160 Speaker 2: Great to see you again, Congresswoman. Thank you for the insights. 250 00:12:34,679 --> 00:12:36,960 Speaker 2: Grabbing the third rail here as they say, and that's 251 00:12:37,000 --> 00:12:40,520 Speaker 2: of course border policy, border security and immigration reform that 252 00:12:40,559 --> 00:12:43,920 Speaker 2: appears to be the center of this grand debate over 253 00:12:44,080 --> 00:12:47,880 Speaker 2: funding for Israel and for Ukraine. I'm Joe Matthew in 254 00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,320 Speaker 2: New York today. We'll call it a special edition of 255 00:12:50,400 --> 00:12:52,360 Speaker 2: Soundown because we've got Rick Davis with us up here 256 00:12:52,400 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 2: as well at world headquarters, Bloomberg Politics contributor iconic Republican Strategists, 257 00:12:57,720 --> 00:13:02,160 Speaker 2: joined today by Brad Howard, Democrats strategist, former spokesperson for 258 00:13:02,360 --> 00:13:04,920 Speaker 2: the Blue Dog Democrats. Great to have you both here. 259 00:13:05,160 --> 00:13:07,920 Speaker 2: Thank you for joining Brad the conversation, and Rick, it's 260 00:13:07,920 --> 00:13:10,520 Speaker 2: good to see you here in New York. As we 261 00:13:10,600 --> 00:13:13,959 Speaker 2: consider what's happening in Washington. There's a lot I could 262 00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:15,640 Speaker 2: ask you about here, but I'm just going to start 263 00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:17,720 Speaker 2: with George Santos because we were just talking about that 264 00:13:17,760 --> 00:13:20,320 Speaker 2: with Nicole Maliatak. As it does appear that the Republican 265 00:13:20,400 --> 00:13:22,560 Speaker 2: Conference is prepared to say goodbye. 266 00:13:23,120 --> 00:13:26,280 Speaker 5: Yeah, I think the Republican Conference, the Democratic Conference, if 267 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:28,600 Speaker 5: there was an independent or a socialist conference, said I'll 268 00:13:28,600 --> 00:13:29,880 Speaker 5: be piling on on this one. 269 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:30,320 Speaker 1: Look. 270 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:35,000 Speaker 5: I mean, as Congressman Mallytakers pointed out, the Ethics Committee 271 00:13:35,040 --> 00:13:37,959 Speaker 5: did their report fifty pages. You know, Congressman guests the 272 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:41,600 Speaker 5: chairman of that committee. A searing indictment like none we've 273 00:13:41,600 --> 00:13:44,840 Speaker 5: ever seen out of the Ethics Committee. And that's what matters. 274 00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:49,160 Speaker 5: It doesn't matter ultimately to the House whether or not 275 00:13:49,280 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 5: he is prosecuted for criminal charges that is, that is 276 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:54,439 Speaker 5: not what they're going to vote on. They're going to 277 00:13:54,520 --> 00:14:01,160 Speaker 5: vote on a massive failure to a to adhere to 278 00:14:01,280 --> 00:14:04,319 Speaker 5: the ethics of the House of Representatives. It's a no brainer. 279 00:14:04,400 --> 00:14:08,960 Speaker 5: Anybody actually who votes against expulsion has to be questioned 280 00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:10,680 Speaker 5: as to what they see as the standard. 281 00:14:11,400 --> 00:14:14,439 Speaker 2: Democrats, I'm guessing Brad are going to vote to expel. 282 00:14:14,480 --> 00:14:16,559 Speaker 2: I know they were having fun last time keeping George 283 00:14:16,559 --> 00:14:19,000 Speaker 2: Santos around, and maybe it's a game they can play 284 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 2: with Republicans. But Democrats will vote to expel, right. 285 00:14:22,920 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 6: Yeah, I think for you know, a couple of reasons here. 286 00:14:25,280 --> 00:14:28,440 Speaker 6: You've got the expulsion on the merits, and you know, 287 00:14:28,680 --> 00:14:33,600 Speaker 6: I think there's there is some credible response from George 288 00:14:33,640 --> 00:14:36,520 Speaker 6: Santos that you know that nothing's been proven in a 289 00:14:36,560 --> 00:14:38,600 Speaker 6: court of law, and there is a concern about the 290 00:14:38,600 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 6: President of Sets. But this is such a unique and 291 00:14:41,520 --> 00:14:45,120 Speaker 6: such an obvious violation of your oath of office and 292 00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 6: the trust you have with voters, and it's well documented. 293 00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:49,960 Speaker 6: I mean, you know, it's it's you know, most people 294 00:14:49,960 --> 00:14:52,760 Speaker 6: always get caught with like accounting and documents and the 295 00:14:53,080 --> 00:14:55,280 Speaker 6: sort of tax evasions ultimately gets a lot of gangsters 296 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:57,800 Speaker 6: back in the day. This is a similar situation where 297 00:14:57,960 --> 00:15:01,640 Speaker 6: it is a very clear and documented, long sets of 298 00:15:01,680 --> 00:15:05,640 Speaker 6: evidence that he broke federal law and misused campaign contributions 299 00:15:05,880 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 6: along the way. And so I think just the severity 300 00:15:08,480 --> 00:15:12,960 Speaker 6: and the clearness of these violations, you know, I think 301 00:15:12,960 --> 00:15:16,080 Speaker 6: Democrats resoundingly understand that this is something that needs to 302 00:15:16,120 --> 00:15:19,320 Speaker 6: be rejected and removed from the House Representatives. But secondly too, 303 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:21,600 Speaker 6: I mean, obviously this is a city of politics, and 304 00:15:21,680 --> 00:15:24,840 Speaker 6: Democrats think that they can retake that seat. Thomas waz 305 00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:27,600 Speaker 6: who was the congressman beforehand, is the clear front runner 306 00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:29,480 Speaker 6: for that seat, and he will be a great member 307 00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:31,240 Speaker 6: of Congress should he win a special election. 308 00:15:31,720 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 2: There's going to be a special and then a real 309 00:15:33,520 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 2: election here, Rick is the conventional wisdom fare that Democrats 310 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 2: flip that seat. 311 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 5: Not necessarily, I mean, I don't think we have a 312 00:15:40,480 --> 00:15:43,280 Speaker 5: real handle on what this election cycle is going to look. 313 00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:46,480 Speaker 5: So going backwards from the November elections in twenty twenty four. 314 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,480 Speaker 5: I think it's a jump ball whether Republicans can retain 315 00:15:49,520 --> 00:15:52,160 Speaker 5: that seat and retain the House. You know, when you 316 00:15:52,200 --> 00:15:55,920 Speaker 5: look at the generic ballot, it's pretty dead even right now, 317 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:58,960 Speaker 5: So there's no real headfake that's empirical that tells you 318 00:15:59,040 --> 00:16:02,680 Speaker 5: who's going to win. Now, no question, Democrats have to 319 00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:04,880 Speaker 5: have a leg up on the special because of the 320 00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:08,520 Speaker 5: embarrassing nature of the expulsion that Republicans are going to 321 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:10,480 Speaker 5: have to get over. So if they can get over that, 322 00:16:10,600 --> 00:16:12,280 Speaker 5: then they can make it a competitive district. 323 00:16:12,360 --> 00:16:15,400 Speaker 2: Unbelievable stuff. Quite a moment that we're approaching here. Rick 324 00:16:15,440 --> 00:16:17,800 Speaker 2: Davis with me in New York, Rad Howard in Washington. 325 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:20,320 Speaker 2: If you're with us on YouTube, do it now. Go 326 00:16:20,360 --> 00:16:23,200 Speaker 2: to YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. Brad will keep you 327 00:16:23,320 --> 00:16:27,200 Speaker 2: warm with the fireplace in his office. Well played, Brad. 328 00:16:27,240 --> 00:16:29,880 Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew at World Headquarters in New York. We'll 329 00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:31,920 Speaker 2: have a lot more ahead as we run for the border. 330 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:32,840 Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg. 331 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:37,480 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound on podcast. Catch the 332 00:16:37,480 --> 00:16:41,400 Speaker 1: program live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg Radio, the 333 00:16:41,440 --> 00:16:44,800 Speaker 1: tune in app, Bloomberg Dot Com and the Bloomberg Business App. 334 00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:47,760 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 335 00:16:47,800 --> 00:16:52,600 Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa played Bloomberg eleven thirty. 336 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:58,240 Speaker 2: As border security is debated on Capitol Hill, nevermind funding 337 00:16:58,400 --> 00:17:01,480 Speaker 2: Israel and Ukraine, which of course all overlap. It's a 338 00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:04,760 Speaker 2: tough room today for Joe Biden, the President of the 339 00:17:04,840 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 2: United States, wakes up to hear from Jamie Diamond and 340 00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:12,960 Speaker 2: Bill Ackman, both not looking forward to his reelection. Bill 341 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:18,000 Speaker 2: Ackman going even further here kind of amazing, essentially telling 342 00:17:18,080 --> 00:17:20,760 Speaker 2: him that he's peaked and must drop out of the 343 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,560 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four campaign. It comes against the backdrop of 344 00:17:24,640 --> 00:17:28,720 Speaker 2: new numbers from Gallup. Again, tough room, poor marks for Biden. 345 00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 2: The headline Middle East Economy, Foreign Affairs. Look at this 346 00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:37,439 Speaker 2: thirty seven percent approve, fifty nine percent disapprove, unchanged from 347 00:17:37,520 --> 00:17:40,560 Speaker 2: last month's ratings, which remain in the basement. So let's 348 00:17:40,600 --> 00:17:43,440 Speaker 2: reassemble our panel. Rick Davis is with us, of course, 349 00:17:43,440 --> 00:17:47,240 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributor, Republican strategist, joined today by Brad Howard, 350 00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:51,639 Speaker 2: Democratic strategist, former spokesperson for the Blue Dog Democrats with 351 00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,119 Speaker 2: us today on the fastest show in politics. Great to 352 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:56,879 Speaker 2: have you both here, Brad, what do you do for 353 00:17:56,960 --> 00:18:00,240 Speaker 2: Joe Biden? He's asking you for your advice. He's got 354 00:18:00,240 --> 00:18:03,119 Speaker 2: a list of accomplishments that he thinks should get him 355 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 2: re elected, from infrastructure to the ira but these numbers 356 00:18:06,720 --> 00:18:09,679 Speaker 2: have been incredibly stubborn and the situation in Israel is 357 00:18:09,680 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 2: not helping. 358 00:18:12,200 --> 00:18:14,480 Speaker 6: Yeah, before I get the advice that I would give 359 00:18:14,520 --> 00:18:16,760 Speaker 6: to the president, which you know he doesn't call me 360 00:18:16,800 --> 00:18:19,359 Speaker 6: that often, but should he? Yeah, But first I just 361 00:18:19,359 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 6: want the polling is tricky for a Democratic incumbent in general, 362 00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:25,120 Speaker 6: because we have a sector of our base that's never 363 00:18:25,160 --> 00:18:27,879 Speaker 6: satisfied that we go far enough right, and so they 364 00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 6: are always going to be disapproving of the president's job 365 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:33,000 Speaker 6: performance because they didn't think he went liberal enough and 366 00:18:33,080 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 6: maybe satisfied with some of the things he did, but 367 00:18:35,040 --> 00:18:38,040 Speaker 6: they want more. For instance, Barack Obama in October twenty 368 00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 6: eleven was below or Joe Biden is today, and yet 369 00:18:40,840 --> 00:18:43,840 Speaker 6: he resoundingly beat Mitt Romney a year later. So there's 370 00:18:43,880 --> 00:18:46,440 Speaker 6: a factor of that involved here. Am I concerned about 371 00:18:46,440 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 6: the poll numbers? Absolutely? And what I you know, the 372 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:50,639 Speaker 6: president needs to go out and talk about some of 373 00:18:50,640 --> 00:18:53,480 Speaker 6: these accomplishments, but not in a way that says vote 374 00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:56,640 Speaker 6: for me because I've done this. Like todding, your accomplishments 375 00:18:56,720 --> 00:18:58,879 Speaker 6: builds trust with the voter. I said I would do this, 376 00:18:59,000 --> 00:19:01,000 Speaker 6: I've done this. Now here's what I want to do 377 00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:03,000 Speaker 6: for you if you give me another term. And I 378 00:19:03,040 --> 00:19:05,600 Speaker 6: think that second part of that message the White House 379 00:19:05,640 --> 00:19:07,919 Speaker 6: has yet to address. I mean, they're prepared to attack 380 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:09,840 Speaker 6: Donald Trump, who I think is going to be the 381 00:19:09,840 --> 00:19:12,280 Speaker 6: Republican nominee. I think most people do, and I think 382 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:15,119 Speaker 6: in that situation, Joe Biden can and will win. But 383 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:17,760 Speaker 6: what is Joe Biden's vision for another four years and 384 00:19:17,800 --> 00:19:19,800 Speaker 6: to the compment that he has peaked. I think you're 385 00:19:19,840 --> 00:19:23,080 Speaker 6: seeing Joe Biden's peak right now. In his career as president, 386 00:19:23,119 --> 00:19:25,760 Speaker 6: he is delivering time and again. He is passing historic 387 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:30,320 Speaker 6: pieces of legislation from infrastructure to climate change to prescription 388 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,600 Speaker 6: drug reforms that bring prices down for seniors that no 389 00:19:32,600 --> 00:19:35,480 Speaker 6: president's been able to do before. And he's also standing 390 00:19:35,600 --> 00:19:40,119 Speaker 6: with our allies abroad defending Ukraine in Israel from barbarica 391 00:19:40,119 --> 00:19:44,240 Speaker 6: attacks from either a terror script or authoritarian regime. And 392 00:19:44,280 --> 00:19:46,040 Speaker 6: I'm proud of the work he's doing in foreign policy 393 00:19:46,080 --> 00:19:48,760 Speaker 6: to strengthen NATO and hold firm of their allies like Israel. 394 00:19:48,880 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 4: U Crane. 395 00:19:49,320 --> 00:19:52,240 Speaker 2: Well, let's hear from Bill Ackman, then we'll get to 396 00:19:52,320 --> 00:19:55,280 Speaker 2: speaking of peaking. Here's how he put it in conversation 397 00:19:55,400 --> 00:19:56,000 Speaker 2: with Bloomberg. 398 00:19:56,040 --> 00:20:00,920 Speaker 7: Rick Listen, there's actually an interesting candidate who just announced 399 00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:04,080 Speaker 7: his candidacy on the Democratic side that I would say. 400 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,680 Speaker 7: No one has heard of a congressman named Dean Phillips, 401 00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:09,240 Speaker 7: so you probably have heard of him, may know him. 402 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,359 Speaker 7: Met with him recently. I was impressed. I think the best. 403 00:20:12,400 --> 00:20:15,199 Speaker 7: I think Biden's done a lot of good things, but 404 00:20:15,280 --> 00:20:18,639 Speaker 7: I think his legacy will not be a good one 405 00:20:18,280 --> 00:20:22,000 Speaker 7: if he is the nominee. I do think the right 406 00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,439 Speaker 7: thing for Biden to do is to step aside and 407 00:20:24,480 --> 00:20:26,560 Speaker 7: to say he's not going to run and create the 408 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 7: opportunity for some competition of old. 409 00:20:30,160 --> 00:20:33,520 Speaker 2: Step aside, say he's not going to run. I've peaked. Meanwhile, 410 00:20:33,880 --> 00:20:36,960 Speaker 2: Rick Jamie Diamond is urging. He says even liberal Democrats 411 00:20:37,000 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 2: to back Nikki Haley. Should Joe Biden worry about what 412 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:40,280 Speaker 2: billionaires think? 413 00:20:40,920 --> 00:20:44,159 Speaker 5: No, Joe Biden shouldn't give it a second thought, but 414 00:20:44,359 --> 00:20:47,280 Speaker 5: he should care about what is Democratic voters think, and 415 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:50,560 Speaker 5: they actually echo a little bit of what Bill Lackman's saying. 416 00:20:51,240 --> 00:20:54,640 Speaker 5: They are not happy with his performance in office. As 417 00:20:54,920 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 5: Brad was saying, I mean, it's a Democrat. It's hard 418 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:02,720 Speaker 5: to manage a group voters like that. They're very different ideologically, 419 00:21:02,760 --> 00:21:06,280 Speaker 5: but they have an incumbent president and they're putting that 420 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:10,359 Speaker 5: at risk. Democrats alone could lose this election no help 421 00:21:10,359 --> 00:21:12,800 Speaker 5: from the Independence, who, by the way, aren't also buying 422 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:17,240 Speaker 5: the Biden administration's case for reelection. So Republicans are sort 423 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,480 Speaker 5: of done right, we could like call out today and 424 00:21:19,720 --> 00:21:22,320 Speaker 5: if the election were held today, the Republicans will vote 425 00:21:22,320 --> 00:21:23,960 Speaker 5: exactly the same way they're going to do in November, 426 00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:28,160 Speaker 5: regardless of who the Republican nominee is. There's a substantial 427 00:21:28,320 --> 00:21:32,200 Speaker 5: difference in how Democrats and Independence see a reelection of 428 00:21:32,280 --> 00:21:35,800 Speaker 5: Joe Biden a different Democrat or even a potential third 429 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:38,200 Speaker 5: party entrant in this and that's the wild card that 430 00:21:38,840 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 5: this Biden campaign has to start to deal with. And 431 00:21:41,880 --> 00:21:44,679 Speaker 5: it's basically been the campaign from nowhere, right, I mean, like, 432 00:21:45,000 --> 00:21:47,199 Speaker 5: where are they today, what are they doing? How are 433 00:21:47,200 --> 00:21:49,560 Speaker 5: they trying to help him win these constituencies? 434 00:21:49,600 --> 00:21:49,800 Speaker 1: Back. 435 00:21:50,080 --> 00:21:52,680 Speaker 5: It's their own base that, according to this Gallup poll, 436 00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,080 Speaker 5: they don't like what he's doing in Ukraine, they don't 437 00:21:55,160 --> 00:21:56,919 Speaker 5: like what he's doing in Israel, they don't like what 438 00:21:56,960 --> 00:22:00,359 Speaker 5: he's doing on the economy. These are Democrats saying things. 439 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 5: They got to get that straight. 440 00:22:01,920 --> 00:22:05,560 Speaker 2: Today, Brad Axios decided to take a look at Arab 441 00:22:05,640 --> 00:22:10,920 Speaker 2: American and Muslim American anger over President Biden's handling of 442 00:22:11,000 --> 00:22:16,360 Speaker 2: the Israel Hamas War. Interesting numbers here. They're looking at Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, 443 00:22:16,359 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 2: and Virginia, all of course important swing states that have 444 00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:25,080 Speaker 2: sizeable populations of both. The Arab American Institute estimating from 445 00:22:25,080 --> 00:22:28,240 Speaker 2: its own polling about fifty nine percent of Arab American 446 00:22:28,320 --> 00:22:31,399 Speaker 2: voters supported Joe Biden in twenty twenty. It says polling 447 00:22:31,400 --> 00:22:35,400 Speaker 2: indicates a dramatic decline in recent weeks, and that would 448 00:22:36,119 --> 00:22:38,359 Speaker 2: that would jive with what we've heard about younger voters 449 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:41,359 Speaker 2: eighteen to thirty four who were upset about the loss 450 00:22:41,359 --> 00:22:45,160 Speaker 2: of civilian life and Joe Biden's full throated support for Israel. 451 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:49,080 Speaker 2: All of these knowing how narrow divisions are and how 452 00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:51,160 Speaker 2: close the selection is going to be, either way, all 453 00:22:51,160 --> 00:22:53,919 Speaker 2: of these could be game changers. How much of a 454 00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:55,520 Speaker 2: problem is this now for Joe Biden. 455 00:22:57,119 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 6: Yeah, I mean it is a problem, But you know, 456 00:22:58,920 --> 00:23:02,800 Speaker 6: I also understand polling after crises like the one we're 457 00:23:02,800 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 6: facing the Israel is temporary and volatile. It always is, 458 00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 6: and it will not be at this level a year 459 00:23:09,640 --> 00:23:12,160 Speaker 6: from now, regardless of the situation in conflict. Maybe different 460 00:23:12,200 --> 00:23:17,040 Speaker 6: issues and different concerns, but you're talking the debate around 461 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:20,119 Speaker 6: the war in Israel is so emotionally charged at the 462 00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,439 Speaker 6: moment that you kind of have to let that polling, 463 00:23:23,240 --> 00:23:25,639 Speaker 6: you know, fizzle out and then address it in the 464 00:23:25,680 --> 00:23:28,520 Speaker 6: longer term. But it is a problem. But I think 465 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,760 Speaker 6: for all the times that Republicans accused President Biden not 466 00:23:31,800 --> 00:23:34,200 Speaker 6: standing up to the far left elements of his party, 467 00:23:34,240 --> 00:23:36,960 Speaker 6: where the progressive winking his party, which he has time 468 00:23:37,000 --> 00:23:38,920 Speaker 6: and again when you look at the legislation he's passed, 469 00:23:39,119 --> 00:23:41,560 Speaker 6: this is another instance where the president is standing up 470 00:23:41,560 --> 00:23:43,360 Speaker 6: to the far left elements of his party and doing 471 00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,639 Speaker 6: what he thinks is right for the American people and 472 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,680 Speaker 6: for the long term national security interests of the country. 473 00:23:48,760 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 6: And so, you know, I think this is going to 474 00:23:52,320 --> 00:23:55,880 Speaker 6: This is a tense moment in American politics on both 475 00:23:55,880 --> 00:23:57,639 Speaker 6: sides of the isle, and I think we'll continue to 476 00:23:57,640 --> 00:23:59,040 Speaker 6: see how this plays out. He's got to do some 477 00:23:59,119 --> 00:24:02,320 Speaker 6: work to build relationships and repair those relations in the 478 00:24:02,400 --> 00:24:05,119 Speaker 6: Muslim community and in the progressive community. But you know, 479 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:07,960 Speaker 6: I think from before Republicans jump up and down, they're 480 00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,480 Speaker 6: not exactly running to the president of the Republican side 481 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,359 Speaker 6: where Donald Trump is proposing a national but Muslim fan. 482 00:24:13,400 --> 00:24:15,560 Speaker 2: Again, listen, that's a great point. I guess it becomes 483 00:24:15,600 --> 00:24:17,680 Speaker 2: a story of turnout at that point. But no, these 484 00:24:17,720 --> 00:24:20,560 Speaker 2: are not going to be converted to the Trump base. 485 00:24:23,359 --> 00:24:26,880 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Sound On podcast. Catch us 486 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:30,080 Speaker 1: live weekdays at one Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the 487 00:24:30,160 --> 00:24:33,200 Speaker 1: iHeartRadio app, and the Bloomberg Business app, or listen on 488 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,280 Speaker 1: demand wherever you get your podcast. 489 00:24:35,840 --> 00:24:38,880 Speaker 2: Welcome to our two of Bloomberg Sound On. I'm Joe 490 00:24:38,880 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 2: Matthew at World Headquarters in New York, joined now by 491 00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:46,080 Speaker 2: Kaylee Lines at Bloomberg's bureau in Washington, d C. Kaylee, 492 00:24:46,160 --> 00:24:49,160 Speaker 2: it's great to see if we've got what could be 493 00:24:49,640 --> 00:24:54,480 Speaker 2: breaking news coming here. The latest from Israel is pretty remarkable, Kaylee, 494 00:24:54,480 --> 00:24:57,600 Speaker 2: as negotiators go for another extension. Here we're in day six. 495 00:24:57,680 --> 00:25:00,920 Speaker 2: Remember we had a four day pause or truce depending 496 00:25:00,920 --> 00:25:02,639 Speaker 2: on who's talking about it, that has led to the 497 00:25:02,680 --> 00:25:06,639 Speaker 2: release of dozens of hostages. We are, what a couple 498 00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:09,720 Speaker 2: of hours away from what would have been the end 499 00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:14,679 Speaker 2: of this truce. Negotiators including the CIA director, are in 500 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,600 Speaker 2: Cutter trying to see if they can push this forward 501 00:25:17,600 --> 00:25:18,080 Speaker 2: once again. 502 00:25:19,320 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 8: Yeah, there's a lot of different players in this game 503 00:25:21,400 --> 00:25:23,639 Speaker 8: right now, Joe, as you say, the Biden administration, the 504 00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:27,920 Speaker 8: CIA Director, the President himself have been pushing for this 505 00:25:28,119 --> 00:25:30,280 Speaker 8: brief truce to last as long as possible due to 506 00:25:30,400 --> 00:25:34,879 Speaker 8: humanitarian considerations. The Cutter is involved, Egypt is involved, a 507 00:25:34,880 --> 00:25:37,400 Speaker 8: lot of mediators trying to see if they can prolong 508 00:25:37,520 --> 00:25:40,919 Speaker 8: this brief piece between Israel and Hamas at least for 509 00:25:41,000 --> 00:25:43,320 Speaker 8: another period of time. Knowing Joe that while there have 510 00:25:43,520 --> 00:25:46,000 Speaker 8: been dozens, as you say, hostages released over the last 511 00:25:46,040 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 8: several days, there are still many more being held in Gaza, 512 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:53,680 Speaker 8: though not all of them are being held actively by Hamas. 513 00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:58,560 Speaker 2: Is our understanding right so far, and our numbers might 514 00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:00,920 Speaker 2: sound or look a little bit differ because not all 515 00:26:00,960 --> 00:26:04,640 Speaker 2: of the hostages were released by Hamas, but so far 516 00:26:05,240 --> 00:26:09,840 Speaker 2: the group has freed eighty one hostages, mainly women and children. 517 00:26:10,280 --> 00:26:15,480 Speaker 2: Israel Kayley says they have freed one hundred eighty Palestinians 518 00:26:15,520 --> 00:26:19,359 Speaker 2: who were imprisoned, but we're still talking about it. At 519 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,800 Speaker 2: least well over one hundred hostages who are left, and 520 00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:23,840 Speaker 2: we don't know where they all. 521 00:26:23,760 --> 00:26:28,399 Speaker 8: Are, yeah, exactly, and a number of them understood to 522 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:30,800 Speaker 8: be American as well, Joe. So there is still work 523 00:26:30,840 --> 00:26:34,359 Speaker 8: to be done here and ultimately more humanitarian aid that 524 00:26:34,400 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 8: needs to get in, not just hostages that need to 525 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:39,240 Speaker 8: get out. The question is whether or not another agreement 526 00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 8: can be made, knowing the longer this truce goes on, 527 00:26:42,560 --> 00:26:46,040 Speaker 8: potentially the more opportunity it gives Hamas to regroup. And 528 00:26:46,080 --> 00:26:48,960 Speaker 8: as we've had conversations on this show as well as 529 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,679 Speaker 8: well as on balance of power, the humanitarian consideration, the 530 00:26:51,680 --> 00:26:54,359 Speaker 8: consideration for the hostages may at some point run into 531 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:59,200 Speaker 8: conflict with israel strategic objectives, as Netanyahu still says they 532 00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,800 Speaker 8: will go back to fighting until the end intel Hamas 533 00:27:02,840 --> 00:27:03,600 Speaker 8: has been eliminated. 534 00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,879 Speaker 2: Well, let's start our conversation with Michael O'Hanlon, a senior 535 00:27:06,920 --> 00:27:10,199 Speaker 2: fellow at the Brookings Institution, where he is director of 536 00:27:10,280 --> 00:27:13,600 Speaker 2: Research and Foreign Policy and a very reliable voice on 537 00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:15,600 Speaker 2: what's happening in this part of the world. Michael, it's 538 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,119 Speaker 2: good to see you. Thank you. We understand negotiators are 539 00:27:18,160 --> 00:27:21,719 Speaker 2: talking about potentially another two days. Is that realistic? Are 540 00:27:21,760 --> 00:27:22,480 Speaker 2: you optimistic? 541 00:27:23,520 --> 00:27:24,000 Speaker 4: Readings? 542 00:27:24,040 --> 00:27:27,439 Speaker 9: Well, optimism isn't really a word. I allow myself to 543 00:27:27,480 --> 00:27:29,760 Speaker 9: feel too much of how this war at the moment, 544 00:27:29,800 --> 00:27:33,480 Speaker 9: because yes, two days of additional relief would be great, 545 00:27:33,840 --> 00:27:35,640 Speaker 9: But of course it does, as you just pointed out, 546 00:27:35,640 --> 00:27:38,040 Speaker 9: beg the question of what comes next, and how long 547 00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:41,600 Speaker 9: whatever comes next would last, and what kinds of constraints 548 00:27:41,640 --> 00:27:44,160 Speaker 9: would be placed upon the use of force, how many 549 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,040 Speaker 9: Palestinians would suffer, how many Israelis would continue to suffer. 550 00:27:47,400 --> 00:27:50,159 Speaker 9: So I do think there's a distinct possibility that you 551 00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:54,480 Speaker 9: could imagine if more hostages are potentially released or proposed 552 00:27:54,480 --> 00:27:57,480 Speaker 9: for release, than that could certainly lead Israel to accept 553 00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,919 Speaker 9: the burdens that Kylie just pointed out of or the 554 00:28:00,000 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 9: potential costs of giving Hamas a little more time to regroup. 555 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:05,280 Speaker 9: And you know, I'm not sure those costs are that 556 00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,280 Speaker 9: high at this point. If Hamas has already had several. 557 00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 4: Days, you know, almost a week. Two more days may 558 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:11,840 Speaker 4: not make a big difference. 559 00:28:12,440 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 9: So I think Israel, if we can get more hostages back, 560 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:18,960 Speaker 9: probably would be inclined to do this. And Israel's probably 561 00:28:18,960 --> 00:28:21,320 Speaker 9: still refining what it wants to do militarily in the 562 00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,280 Speaker 9: Southern Pirate Oza in particular, where we see there's been 563 00:28:24,320 --> 00:28:26,560 Speaker 9: a debate with the United States about just what kind 564 00:28:26,600 --> 00:28:30,000 Speaker 9: of force to use, whether to get close to hospitals 565 00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:34,560 Speaker 9: and other such facilities, whether to use certain kinds of 566 00:28:34,600 --> 00:28:38,000 Speaker 9: weapons or not. And to the extent, Israel still processing 567 00:28:38,000 --> 00:28:41,640 Speaker 9: all that conflicting advice, you know, advice from the Americans, 568 00:28:41,720 --> 00:28:45,960 Speaker 9: advice from its own military leadership, desires to eliminate hamas 569 00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:47,000 Speaker 9: as much as possible. 570 00:28:47,400 --> 00:28:49,760 Speaker 4: It may welcome a couple more tastes for planning. 571 00:28:51,440 --> 00:28:54,920 Speaker 8: Well, you say, eliminating hamas as much as possible, how 572 00:28:55,000 --> 00:28:58,280 Speaker 8: much realistically is possible, as Netnilahu was promising to see 573 00:28:58,280 --> 00:29:00,280 Speaker 8: this through until the very end. Are we looking at 574 00:29:00,360 --> 00:29:02,160 Speaker 8: potentially indefinite conflict here? 575 00:29:03,200 --> 00:29:05,640 Speaker 9: Well, we in the United States remember well, of course, 576 00:29:05,640 --> 00:29:08,320 Speaker 9: how we felt after nine to eleven, and at that time, 577 00:29:08,520 --> 00:29:11,640 Speaker 9: the notion of seeing any al Qaeda fighters survive our 578 00:29:11,680 --> 00:29:15,160 Speaker 9: retaliation probably would have been seen as unacceptable, but we 579 00:29:15,240 --> 00:29:18,200 Speaker 9: all know that twenty years later, there's still al Qaeda 580 00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:20,240 Speaker 9: out there. Most of them, of course, are people who 581 00:29:20,240 --> 00:29:23,800 Speaker 9: were not in the ranks on September eleventh, two thousand 582 00:29:23,840 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 9: and one. But some of the original supporters of that 583 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:29,200 Speaker 9: organization we never were able to find. They could just 584 00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:31,600 Speaker 9: put down their guns and blend back into a population. 585 00:29:32,040 --> 00:29:34,120 Speaker 9: Depending on where they were, there might or might not 586 00:29:34,160 --> 00:29:36,960 Speaker 9: ever be intelligence about what they had done to implicate 587 00:29:37,000 --> 00:29:40,120 Speaker 9: themselves in that original attack or other al Qaeda activities. 588 00:29:40,200 --> 00:29:43,520 Speaker 9: Hamas is the same, you know, the leadership, the top leadership, 589 00:29:43,520 --> 00:29:47,800 Speaker 9: and those who cross the border on October seventh. Presumably 590 00:29:47,840 --> 00:29:50,120 Speaker 9: Israel is going to work its very hardest and be 591 00:29:50,160 --> 00:29:53,280 Speaker 9: willing to take some risks and pay some serious costs 592 00:29:53,360 --> 00:29:57,120 Speaker 9: to get those people. But even that group of you know, 593 00:29:57,200 --> 00:29:59,840 Speaker 9: a few hundred or into a couple thousand, is going 594 00:29:59,880 --> 00:30:05,120 Speaker 9: to be hard to identify with complete precision and complete thoroughness. 595 00:30:05,320 --> 00:30:08,920 Speaker 9: And the other thirty thousand ish Hamas fighters who at 596 00:30:08,920 --> 00:30:12,200 Speaker 9: one time or another have taken up weapons for the organization, 597 00:30:12,800 --> 00:30:15,000 Speaker 9: I think are going to be a human intelligence challenge 598 00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,880 Speaker 9: that Israel can never figure out. Terms of having any 599 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,360 Speaker 9: kind of basis to say who exactly is Hamas and 600 00:30:20,360 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 9: who's not. So if you literally take the idea of 601 00:30:24,800 --> 00:30:28,640 Speaker 9: getting rid of every single Hamas fighter to its logical conclusion, 602 00:30:28,880 --> 00:30:32,280 Speaker 9: you specify a strategy for a war that cannot be one, 603 00:30:32,360 --> 00:30:37,280 Speaker 9: cannot be successfully accomplished, and will cause certainly huge numbers 604 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,080 Speaker 9: of casualties along the way. Israel's going to have to 605 00:30:40,080 --> 00:30:42,000 Speaker 9: scale back from that ambition. They're going to have to 606 00:30:42,000 --> 00:30:47,560 Speaker 9: focus on leadership on the most lethal trigger pollers, on weapons, caches, 607 00:30:48,200 --> 00:30:54,760 Speaker 9: training facilities, major infrastructure, major command and control capabilities, and 608 00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:56,880 Speaker 9: that's going to have to be their definition of the 609 00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:59,520 Speaker 9: Hamas they destroy. Together with the idea of Hamas as 610 00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 9: the government for Gaza. I think most of those goals 611 00:31:02,200 --> 00:31:03,600 Speaker 9: are largely within reach. 612 00:31:03,960 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 2: We know that Israel has been provided the names of 613 00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,600 Speaker 2: another group of hostages due to be freed today. But 614 00:31:10,720 --> 00:31:13,800 Speaker 2: Michael I get nervous about headlines like this one that 615 00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:17,080 Speaker 2: we're seeing from Hamas and a claim that the youngest 616 00:31:17,240 --> 00:31:20,200 Speaker 2: of the Israeli hostages. We've been hearing a lot about 617 00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:26,000 Speaker 2: a ten month old boy named Kiefer Bebus. His brother 618 00:31:26,240 --> 00:31:29,800 Speaker 2: and mother, they say are no longer alive. There was 619 00:31:29,880 --> 00:31:33,040 Speaker 2: hope that those names would be in this batch provided 620 00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,479 Speaker 2: to the Israelis Today, Michael, if this turns out to 621 00:31:36,480 --> 00:31:38,360 Speaker 2: be true, this is the type of headline that can 622 00:31:38,440 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 2: change this conversation very quickly. 623 00:31:41,200 --> 00:31:43,840 Speaker 9: You're right, and we obviously always want to bear in 624 00:31:43,880 --> 00:31:49,000 Speaker 9: mind the very human and individual costs of this conflict, 625 00:31:49,040 --> 00:31:53,040 Speaker 9: and any casualty is one too many. But I have 626 00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:56,320 Speaker 9: to say, at a level of military and strategic analysis, 627 00:31:56,560 --> 00:32:00,280 Speaker 9: I'm surprised how many hostages apparently are still alive. And 628 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:03,160 Speaker 9: I would have thought that Hamas might have been trying 629 00:32:03,200 --> 00:32:07,280 Speaker 9: to deter Israel's initial air strikes and artillery strikes by 630 00:32:07,280 --> 00:32:10,320 Speaker 9: putting more of the hostages near the likely targets of 631 00:32:10,320 --> 00:32:13,280 Speaker 9: those strikes. So the fact that we are still in 632 00:32:13,320 --> 00:32:15,560 Speaker 9: a world where a lot of the hostages are alive, 633 00:32:16,160 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 9: to me is hopeful, and you know, it's a silver 634 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,800 Speaker 9: lining of hopefulness in what's an enormous tragedy, and they 635 00:32:22,840 --> 00:32:25,479 Speaker 9: are going to still be individual tragedies, I'm afraid, as 636 00:32:25,520 --> 00:32:26,200 Speaker 9: you point out. 637 00:32:27,760 --> 00:32:31,640 Speaker 8: Yeah, absolutely, and again returning to where we began this conversation, 638 00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:37,440 Speaker 8: there is effort underway to prevent potentially any tragedy from occurring. 639 00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 8: For much longer keeping the pause and fighting going, including 640 00:32:40,360 --> 00:32:43,880 Speaker 8: reporting today from Bloomberg that Saudi Arabia is now in 641 00:32:43,960 --> 00:32:47,760 Speaker 8: discussion with Iran about making investments into that heavily sanctioned 642 00:32:47,800 --> 00:32:51,040 Speaker 8: economy in return for Iran stopping the backing of some 643 00:32:51,160 --> 00:32:55,840 Speaker 8: of its proxies, avoiding this conflict spreading any further regionally. Michael, 644 00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:56,960 Speaker 8: what do you think about that? 645 00:32:57,960 --> 00:32:59,959 Speaker 9: Well, you know, that's the kind of hope we all 646 00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:03,120 Speaker 9: have had for the Middle East for decades that's always 647 00:33:03,160 --> 00:33:03,760 Speaker 9: been dashed. 648 00:33:04,120 --> 00:33:06,880 Speaker 4: You know, the idea of having a two state. 649 00:33:06,760 --> 00:33:11,400 Speaker 9: Solution, but otherwise good governance throughout the region that allows 650 00:33:11,440 --> 00:33:15,640 Speaker 9: for people to pursue prosperity, and that maybe benefits from 651 00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:17,640 Speaker 9: some of the richer states investing in some of the 652 00:33:17,640 --> 00:33:20,560 Speaker 9: poorest states. I mean, these are kind of the dreams 653 00:33:20,680 --> 00:33:23,440 Speaker 9: or the aspirations upon which a lot of Middle Eastern 654 00:33:23,520 --> 00:33:25,880 Speaker 9: policy has been based for decades. But look where we 655 00:33:25,920 --> 00:33:28,800 Speaker 9: are even here in twenty twenty three, where for a 656 00:33:28,800 --> 00:33:32,440 Speaker 9: lot of groups, the idea of being rejectionists, the idea 657 00:33:32,640 --> 00:33:37,880 Speaker 9: of impeding the progress of one's hated adversaries, actually seems 658 00:33:37,920 --> 00:33:43,040 Speaker 9: to matter more than the benefits of one's own future generations. 659 00:33:43,080 --> 00:33:45,760 Speaker 9: What was the line, I forget you know the famous 660 00:33:45,760 --> 00:33:47,680 Speaker 9: adage that was only going to be peace in the 661 00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:51,720 Speaker 9: Middle East when people start loving the loving their own 662 00:33:51,760 --> 00:33:54,800 Speaker 9: grand children more than they hate their enemies, and allow 663 00:33:54,880 --> 00:33:57,280 Speaker 9: that prosperity, allow that investment that you just mentioned to 664 00:33:57,280 --> 00:34:03,960 Speaker 9: actually happen. But unfortunately, an example this past October where Hamas, 665 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:07,400 Speaker 9: perhaps eg gone by Iran or perhaps just resourced more 666 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:11,360 Speaker 9: generally by Iran, didn't like the possibility of the Saudis 667 00:34:11,360 --> 00:34:13,320 Speaker 9: and the Israelis getting a lot better, which would have 668 00:34:13,360 --> 00:34:17,239 Speaker 9: facilitated investment in the region and greater economic cooperation in 669 00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:19,480 Speaker 9: the region, and so they carried out the October seventh 670 00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:23,000 Speaker 9: attacks precisely to prevent that sort of positive development. 671 00:34:23,000 --> 00:34:26,600 Speaker 2: Well, well, we're compelled by it, not only by the story. 672 00:34:26,680 --> 00:34:29,120 Speaker 2: Is such a power play potentially by Saudi Arabia, But 673 00:34:29,160 --> 00:34:31,600 Speaker 2: remembering where we were a couple of weeks ago, Michael, 674 00:34:31,600 --> 00:34:34,480 Speaker 2: when all the talk was about a second or third front. 675 00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:38,399 Speaker 2: If the minimum is achieved here in Saudi Arabia can 676 00:34:38,440 --> 00:34:43,680 Speaker 2: convince Iran or pay Iran to keep its proxies in check, 677 00:34:43,840 --> 00:34:48,400 Speaker 2: and this remains a war largely between Israel and Hamas. 678 00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:49,520 Speaker 2: Is that not progress? 679 00:34:50,640 --> 00:34:53,719 Speaker 4: Yes, that would be excellent. I'm just doubting whether it 680 00:34:53,719 --> 00:34:54,240 Speaker 4: will happen. 681 00:34:54,280 --> 00:34:59,520 Speaker 9: I'm not challenging your contention that it would be progress. 682 00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:03,520 Speaker 9: Thing that turned people more towards building a peaceful, prosperous 683 00:35:03,560 --> 00:35:07,480 Speaker 9: future and away from inciting violence and tearing each other 684 00:35:07,520 --> 00:35:08,920 Speaker 9: down would be great. 685 00:35:09,080 --> 00:35:11,320 Speaker 4: But you know, I don't see a lot of basis 686 00:35:11,320 --> 00:35:11,920 Speaker 4: for thinking. 687 00:35:11,719 --> 00:35:14,920 Speaker 9: That's where Ron's headspace or mindset is right now. 688 00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:20,400 Speaker 8: And of course, this idea of how the Greater Region 689 00:35:20,440 --> 00:35:22,880 Speaker 8: fits in and ensuring that the conflict does not spill 690 00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:24,520 Speaker 8: over into other parts of it is one of the 691 00:35:24,520 --> 00:35:27,319 Speaker 8: objectives of Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln as he makes 692 00:35:27,360 --> 00:35:31,280 Speaker 8: another trip to this region. He's made multiple since October seventh, 693 00:35:31,280 --> 00:35:34,879 Speaker 8: when this conflict started. What happens if we don't get 694 00:35:34,920 --> 00:35:38,200 Speaker 8: an extension of the truth when Blincoln is there. 695 00:35:39,680 --> 00:35:40,359 Speaker 4: Yeah, I don't know. 696 00:35:41,640 --> 00:35:43,279 Speaker 9: At least he would be there to try to remind 697 00:35:43,320 --> 00:35:46,320 Speaker 9: the Israelis to use force more carefully in the next round. 698 00:35:46,400 --> 00:35:48,720 Speaker 9: You know, I mean, first of all, that guy's a workhorse, 699 00:35:48,760 --> 00:35:52,040 Speaker 9: and I just I'm astounded at how hard he's been working. 700 00:35:52,600 --> 00:35:56,560 Speaker 9: But secondly, I also hope that he's got time and 701 00:35:56,680 --> 00:36:00,400 Speaker 9: energy to think about not just the tactical data of 702 00:36:00,840 --> 00:36:04,239 Speaker 9: extending a seaspire, but also where we're headed with this, 703 00:36:05,080 --> 00:36:07,880 Speaker 9: and I don't I'm sure there are a lot of 704 00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:10,240 Speaker 9: people working for him who are thinking about that question, 705 00:36:10,320 --> 00:36:12,680 Speaker 9: but I think it's time to think about using some 706 00:36:12,760 --> 00:36:15,759 Speaker 9: a fair amount of American leverage here to push the 707 00:36:15,800 --> 00:36:22,040 Speaker 9: parties towards some kind of a durable conflict resolution strategy 708 00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:26,680 Speaker 9: that they may not completely love, but that will leave 709 00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:30,200 Speaker 9: the place more stable long term. What I'm basically saying 710 00:36:30,280 --> 00:36:32,680 Speaker 9: is trying to work with others in the region to 711 00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,520 Speaker 9: impose some elements of a two state solution coming out 712 00:36:35,520 --> 00:36:36,440 Speaker 9: of this, rather than just. 713 00:36:36,400 --> 00:36:38,440 Speaker 4: Wait for everyone to get to it. And I realized 714 00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:39,040 Speaker 4: we can't. 715 00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,560 Speaker 9: Literally impose it, but we have a lot more leverage 716 00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:45,200 Speaker 9: with all parties in the region than we're often prepared 717 00:36:45,239 --> 00:36:47,920 Speaker 9: to acknowledge. And I hope there's some time and attention 718 00:36:48,400 --> 00:36:52,279 Speaker 9: and just you know, enough energy in his body for 719 00:36:52,360 --> 00:36:55,279 Speaker 9: that kind of question to be addressable and not just 720 00:36:55,360 --> 00:36:57,640 Speaker 9: these immediate questions of extending sea spires. 721 00:36:58,040 --> 00:37:00,160 Speaker 2: I want to hear your reaction to something that the 722 00:37:00,160 --> 00:37:04,800 Speaker 2: Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln said, looking beyond the immediate 723 00:37:04,880 --> 00:37:07,359 Speaker 2: term here, we're talking about the minute to minute, hour 724 00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:11,040 Speaker 2: to hour situation on the ground in Gaza. Listen to 725 00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,960 Speaker 2: Secretary of State blink and talk about the road ahead, Michael, 726 00:37:13,960 --> 00:37:15,000 Speaker 2: and we'll have you respond here. 727 00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:18,640 Speaker 10: He is everyone is focused on the day of what's 728 00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:22,400 Speaker 10: happening in Gaza right now, but we also need to 729 00:37:22,440 --> 00:37:25,520 Speaker 10: be focused at the same time, and we are in 730 00:37:25,560 --> 00:37:29,319 Speaker 10: conversations with many other countries on what I called both 731 00:37:29,320 --> 00:37:31,120 Speaker 10: the day after and the day after the day after. 732 00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:34,120 Speaker 2: What does the day after the day after look like, Michael, 733 00:37:34,160 --> 00:37:38,200 Speaker 2: when none of Israel's neighbors will accept refugees, for instance. 734 00:37:39,040 --> 00:37:42,480 Speaker 9: Well, I think that the idea of a two stage 735 00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:47,600 Speaker 9: post conflict strategy is correct, because in the first instance, 736 00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:50,800 Speaker 9: what you need to do is allow life to resume 737 00:37:51,239 --> 00:37:55,000 Speaker 9: and start to create some kinds of governance structures that 738 00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:58,920 Speaker 9: are not just Israel occupying Gaza, but the international community 739 00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:03,800 Speaker 9: and Stenians themselves gradually entering into some kind of greater 740 00:38:04,320 --> 00:38:09,440 Speaker 9: role in at least the civilian governance of Gasa, but 741 00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:12,319 Speaker 9: then longer term. I hope what he's alluding to is 742 00:38:12,719 --> 00:38:16,840 Speaker 9: a two state solution that we somehow use this terrible 743 00:38:16,960 --> 00:38:21,200 Speaker 9: tragedy and crisis as a way to make possible what 744 00:38:21,440 --> 00:38:24,160 Speaker 9: wasn't before, because now at least people realize how bad 745 00:38:24,200 --> 00:38:29,239 Speaker 9: things can be if we just stay stuck in negotiation paralysis, 746 00:38:29,280 --> 00:38:31,239 Speaker 9: as we've been for the better part of two or 747 00:38:31,280 --> 00:38:35,600 Speaker 9: three decades now. So the day after, to use his framing, 748 00:38:35,960 --> 00:38:39,480 Speaker 9: is presumably when the conflict stops and you start to recover. 749 00:38:40,000 --> 00:38:41,600 Speaker 4: The day after the day after. 750 00:38:42,280 --> 00:38:45,399 Speaker 9: Is presumably when you get to a maybe it's even 751 00:38:45,400 --> 00:38:47,600 Speaker 9: a three step process, but you get to a long term, 752 00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:52,360 Speaker 9: viable Palestinian polity that can avoid violence in the future 753 00:38:52,480 --> 00:38:54,480 Speaker 9: and help its own people do better. 754 00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:57,520 Speaker 2: Michael, great conversation. I'm really glad you could join us today. 755 00:38:58,000 --> 00:38:59,960 Speaker 2: Let's not let too much time go by Michael Hanlett 756 00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:03,360 Speaker 2: the Brookings Institution with Kaylee in Washington. I'm Joe Matthew 757 00:39:03,400 --> 00:39:06,480 Speaker 2: in New York. This is Bloomberg. Thanks for listening to 758 00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:08,840 Speaker 2: the Sound On podcast. Make sure to subscribe if you 759 00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:11,799 Speaker 2: haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get 760 00:39:11,800 --> 00:39:14,840 Speaker 2: your podcasts, and you can find us live every weekday 761 00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:18,280 Speaker 2: from Washington, DC at one pm Eastern Time at Bloomberg 762 00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:20,880 Speaker 2: dot com.