WEBVTT - Mailbag: D-backs Playoff Odds Tumble After Rockies Debacle 0:00:09.039 --> 0:00:12.399 Hello, and welcome to another episode of Snake's Territory, part 0:00:12.440 --> 0:00:15.160 of the Fouls Territory Network. Be sure to like this video, 0:00:15.200 --> 0:00:18.360 subscribe to our YouTube channel, maybe leave us a five 0:00:18.440 --> 0:00:21.439 star review wherever you get your podcasts. I am Jesse 0:00:21.520 --> 0:00:26.800 Friedman alongside Jack Summers and Jack This was not great 0:00:27.160 --> 0:00:31.120 for the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have lost a series. First 0:00:31.120 --> 0:00:33.400 time they've lost a series in quite some time. I 0:00:33.440 --> 0:00:37.120 believe they had either one or split ten consecutive series. 0:00:37.600 --> 0:00:40.320 This time they're back in the lost column and it 0:00:40.400 --> 0:00:45.400 comes against no other team than the Colorado Rockies. Not 0:00:45.400 --> 0:00:47.680 not a great homestand for this Diamondbacks team. 0:00:48.920 --> 0:00:51.760 Yeah, I mean just stunning that they would lose a 0:00:51.960 --> 0:00:53.159 homestand to the Rockies. 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:53.800 Obviously. 0:00:54.480 --> 0:00:57.960 I tried to take a glass half full approach in 0:00:58.160 --> 0:01:02.680 viewing this the night before, thinking well, okay, it's one game, 0:01:02.760 --> 0:01:06.399 it happens. But the way today's game went down, the 0:01:06.440 --> 0:01:10.440 way they lost it was probably one of the most 0:01:10.440 --> 0:01:14.000 painful losses for just about any Diamondbacks fan to watch, 0:01:14.840 --> 0:01:18.000 most aggravating. And you can pretty much sense too that 0:01:18.040 --> 0:01:21.280 Tory felt the same way in his postgame comments. I mean, 0:01:21.319 --> 0:01:24.240 he was really grinding through his presser. 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:28.520 We'll get to the offense here in a second. Certainly 0:01:28.560 --> 0:01:30.920 the offense was a big part of the storyline that 0:01:31.000 --> 0:01:34.640 Diamondbacks had their opportunities in this game, for sure. But 0:01:35.040 --> 0:01:38.600 let's start with Merrill Kelly. Five innings from him, six hits, 0:01:38.640 --> 0:01:41.800 six runs, three walks, two strikeouts. He gave up a 0:01:41.800 --> 0:01:45.240 couple of very costly home runs, the biggest one coming 0:01:45.440 --> 0:01:47.400 in at the top of the second inning. D Backs 0:01:47.400 --> 0:01:49.360 had just put a run on the board, taken a 0:01:49.360 --> 0:01:51.720 one nothing lead in the bottom of the first, and 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:55.160 then Brett Sullivan after the Rockies already got a run 0:01:55.200 --> 0:01:57.360 on the board in that inning, Brett Sullivan comes out 0:01:57.360 --> 0:02:00.559 of nowhere and hits a three run home run off 0:02:00.560 --> 0:02:04.160 the right field foul pole with two outs, and suddenly 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:06.600 the Diamondbacks were in a pretty big hole early on 0:02:06.680 --> 0:02:09.720 in this game. A couple of innings later, Zach vine 0:02:10.280 --> 0:02:13.240 who I will be honest, I have not thought about 0:02:13.360 --> 0:02:16.200 Zach Vien in quite some time. He was at one 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:19.919 point a pretty big time Rockies prospect. Kind of disappeared 0:02:20.280 --> 0:02:23.880 here over the last several seasons, but he made his 0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:26.400 way back to the majors, and this was his first 0:02:26.440 --> 0:02:28.960 game back in twenty twenty six, he had a two 0:02:29.040 --> 0:02:31.360 run home run against Marrill Kelly in the fourth inning 0:02:31.639 --> 0:02:34.959 that gave the Rockies a six to one lead. And yes, 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:37.920 the Diamondbacks had their chances. Jack, We'll get to the 0:02:37.960 --> 0:02:41.840 offense in a moment, but Mary Kelly just has been 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:44.320 inconsistent this season. I know there's been more good than 0:02:44.400 --> 0:02:47.160 bad recently, and I think we should keep that in mind. 0:02:47.600 --> 0:02:51.120 But this was a really rough one against a subpar 0:02:51.280 --> 0:02:52.400 offense in Colorado. 0:02:53.800 --> 0:02:55.000 Yeah, you know, it's funny. 0:02:55.120 --> 0:02:58.080 Just as that second inning started, I saw a couple 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:01.760 of Armside misses in one of the earlier at bats 0:03:01.760 --> 0:03:05.240 in the inning, and I'm like, not this again, you know, 0:03:05.400 --> 0:03:08.560 And I get when I start seeing just you know, 0:03:09.000 --> 0:03:11.320 armside misses, and he kind of gives like a little 0:03:11.360 --> 0:03:14.680 disgusted kick sideways when he when he knows he let 0:03:14.720 --> 0:03:17.640 it out there, And just right away, I'm like, he's 0:03:17.680 --> 0:03:18.000 gonna have. 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:20.840 A tough game here. I can just tell you know 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:21.639 that the. 0:03:21.560 --> 0:03:23.359 Home run of Sullivan, I mean, you know, he had 0:03:23.400 --> 0:03:25.760 gotten two outs, he had put two on, had gotten 0:03:25.800 --> 0:03:26.360 two outs. 0:03:26.639 --> 0:03:27.680 One was a line out. 0:03:27.480 --> 0:03:31.280 To Perdomo, and then he falls behind three and one 0:03:31.440 --> 0:03:34.200 and just like oh boy. And sure enough he just 0:03:34.240 --> 0:03:37.480 puts one in the left hand batter's happy zone down 0:03:37.520 --> 0:03:40.360 and in and Sullivan, you know, golfed it up off 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:45.080 the foul hole. Just you know, the win expectancy for 0:03:45.160 --> 0:03:48.320 that was a twenty six percent change in that one 0:03:48.400 --> 0:03:50.080 swing right heading. 0:03:50.160 --> 0:03:52.160 You know, before he hit that home run, it. 0:03:52.120 --> 0:03:55.680 Was basically a fifty to fifty game, fifty point win 0:03:55.800 --> 0:03:59.040 percentage for the Diamondbacks. That one swing dropped him to 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:01.840 twenty four point six percent. That was the single biggest 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:04.280 event of the game when it comes to win probability. 0:04:06.680 --> 0:04:09.200 Yeah, it was. It was a big blow, no doubt. 0:04:09.480 --> 0:04:12.840 And unfortunately for Meryl, home runs have been a pretty 0:04:12.840 --> 0:04:15.960 big issue for him. He's now one point eight home 0:04:16.040 --> 0:04:19.039 runs per nine for the season, twenty five homers allowed 0:04:19.040 --> 0:04:21.360 in one hundred and twenty five innings. That's a that's 0:04:21.400 --> 0:04:23.920 a really big number when you look at you know, 0:04:24.040 --> 0:04:27.040 recent seasons for him. Last year, in one hundred and 0:04:27.040 --> 0:04:30.120 eighty four innings, Merril allowed twenty three home runs. So 0:04:30.320 --> 0:04:34.400 he's already above that here in twenty twenty six. And 0:04:35.080 --> 0:04:37.599 I think with Meryl Jack we've been We've been telling 0:04:37.640 --> 0:04:40.080 ourselves for a while, like, okay, even though he's not 0:04:40.160 --> 0:04:42.560 striking out a ton of guys, even though he's still 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:45.560 walking a few more than you'd like, He's starting to 0:04:46.160 --> 0:04:48.960 get some softer contact. He's starting to get at least 0:04:49.000 --> 0:04:51.880 good results, even though he hasn't been pitching super deep 0:04:51.920 --> 0:04:59.080 into games unfortunately. Just as kind of an objective, I 0:04:59.120 --> 0:05:01.720 think if you, if you kind of separate yourself from 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:04.680 what Meryl has meant to this organization the past few years, 0:05:05.279 --> 0:05:07.680 the reality is, I don't think anyone is looking at 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:10.320 his numbers this season and seeing a pitcher that you 0:05:10.440 --> 0:05:14.800 really want pitching for you in a Pennant chase, right, 0:05:14.839 --> 0:05:17.400 I mean, the numbers just kind of are what they are. 0:05:17.400 --> 0:05:19.120 I mean, he has a five to eleven ERA, he 0:05:19.160 --> 0:05:21.160 has a five point seven to one FIP, he has 0:05:21.200 --> 0:05:24.119 a four point nine to eight x FIP. His expected ERA, 0:05:24.320 --> 0:05:26.600 I think is still well over six. That number has 0:05:26.640 --> 0:05:29.760 been way up there the whole season, and so I 0:05:29.800 --> 0:05:32.479 still don't really know what the solution is here. I 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:34.680 know his VLO was down a little bit in this one, 0:05:35.120 --> 0:05:38.120 and maybe that was a factor. Yeah, I was a 0:05:38.120 --> 0:05:40.120 tick and a half. It was kind of it was 0:05:40.200 --> 0:05:42.120 kind of a lot. But still, I mean, you look 0:05:42.120 --> 0:05:45.039 at his stuff, you know, the movement the VLO for 0:05:45.080 --> 0:05:48.600 the entire season, it's not that different from a year ago. 0:05:48.920 --> 0:05:51.719 And I just keep going back to the zone rate, 0:05:52.080 --> 0:05:55.279 Like what percentage of Merrill Kelly's pitches is he throwing 0:05:55.279 --> 0:05:58.520 in the zone in this game? It was thirty nine percent, 0:05:59.240 --> 0:06:02.360 And that's just it's just way too low. And even 0:06:02.400 --> 0:06:05.280 as Kelly has gotten better results here in recent games, 0:06:05.560 --> 0:06:09.200 most of these games he's still he still just hasn't 0:06:09.200 --> 0:06:12.160 been throwing enough strikes. He's gotten away with it at times, 0:06:12.440 --> 0:06:14.240 but not in this game against the Rockies. 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:18.960 Well, you know the Rockies broadcast. I mean I'm paraphrasing 0:06:18.960 --> 0:06:21.960 a little bit here, but essentially, you know, there was 0:06:22.000 --> 0:06:24.480 a comment Merrill just doesn't have the stuff. 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:26.320 Anymore to do what he used to do. 0:06:26.839 --> 0:06:30.279 So he nibbles a lot, and if you're patient, you're 0:06:30.279 --> 0:06:33.159 going to get something to hit. And I think that, 0:06:33.320 --> 0:06:35.160 you know, that's part of it. I mean, obviously he's 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:37.680 trying to nibble a lot of times. Those nibbles are 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:42.080 actually not even very competitive pitches. But you know, if 0:06:42.080 --> 0:06:44.400 the hitters are patient, they're getting something to hit and 0:06:44.400 --> 0:06:47.159 they're doing a lot of damage on it. I know 0:06:47.320 --> 0:06:49.400 that the metrics and the things that we look at 0:06:49.520 --> 0:06:54.640 numerically probably tell us that the stuff isn't that much different. 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:57.400 But the hitters are telling us the stuff is different. 0:06:57.920 --> 0:07:03.000 It's not as good hitters. Hitters are telling this by 0:07:03.040 --> 0:07:05.960 the swings that you're taking and the damage that you're doing. 0:07:07.760 --> 0:07:10.920 That's fair. I mean, I'm not here to say that, 0:07:11.120 --> 0:07:13.280 you know, the movement numbers and the vlow that we 0:07:13.360 --> 0:07:15.240 can see like that's the end all be all there. 0:07:15.320 --> 0:07:18.080 There certainly could be something more going on. I just 0:07:18.160 --> 0:07:20.360 keep going back to like, well, there's a big difference 0:07:20.360 --> 0:07:21.680 between a two to one count and a one to 0:07:21.680 --> 0:07:24.880 two count, you know, or three to one in two, 0:07:25.360 --> 0:07:27.720 and Merrill just keeps winding up on the wrong side 0:07:27.720 --> 0:07:29.720 of that over and over again. I think that can 0:07:29.800 --> 0:07:33.280 really have an outsized impact for you know, a picture 0:07:33.320 --> 0:07:36.240 of his type switching gears to the offense. The Diamondbacks 0:07:36.240 --> 0:07:38.760 set up plenty of chances to pick up Meryl in 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:42.240 this one. Unfortunately, they they they made a comeback, they 0:07:42.440 --> 0:07:44.560 made it a little interesting, but they weren't able to 0:07:44.560 --> 0:07:47.400 come all the way back. They did score a run 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:50.720 in the bottom half of the fifth inning that came 0:07:50.760 --> 0:07:54.360 on a Gabby Moreno RBI double. Corbyn Carroll hit a 0:07:54.360 --> 0:07:57.239 home run late as well. That was this one hundredth 0:07:57.320 --> 0:08:00.200 of his career, which was pretty cool to see. Man, 0:08:00.240 --> 0:08:02.760 it felt like the Diamondbacks had the bases loaded just 0:08:02.800 --> 0:08:06.080 about every inning, Jack and you know, they were able 0:08:06.080 --> 0:08:08.160 to get a run across here or there, but it 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:11.560 just was not nearly enough. They wind up leaving fifteen 0:08:11.600 --> 0:08:12.720 on base in this game. 0:08:14.320 --> 0:08:16.320 Yeah, I mean, you know, in the fifth inning when 0:08:16.360 --> 0:08:19.680 Gabby had that RBI double, he gets it done there. Paedomo, 0:08:19.720 --> 0:08:22.480 by the way, made a really nice hustle tag to 0:08:22.520 --> 0:08:25.600 get himself into scoring position on that. But you know, 0:08:26.200 --> 0:08:28.440 Nolan taps out with the bases loaded with a week 0:08:28.520 --> 0:08:31.920 round out to short in the sixth inning, you know, 0:08:32.000 --> 0:08:35.400 with two outs, Corbyn Walks just missed a three run homer. 0:08:35.400 --> 0:08:39.480 It hit went over the bullpen. You know, Gaby gets called. 0:08:39.280 --> 0:08:41.400 Looking on the chat that at bat, I mean, he 0:08:41.440 --> 0:08:44.760 gets called out, you know, looking on a pitch that 0:08:44.920 --> 0:08:48.280 was challenged for the strikeout. And prior to that, Gabby 0:08:48.320 --> 0:08:51.079 had a challenge twice just to stay in the bat. 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:55.960 The home played umpire missed by multiple inches twice, and 0:08:56.000 --> 0:08:58.600 that at bat to Gabby pitches way above the zone, 0:08:58.679 --> 0:09:01.319 like not even close. The guy had a bad day. 0:09:01.360 --> 0:09:04.640 There were numerous other situations, you know, But then you 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:07.480 go like bases loaded, nobody out in the seventh Kepler 0:09:07.520 --> 0:09:11.079 pops out, Vargas, Pinch hits for Tower and he walks 0:09:11.080 --> 0:09:14.280 in a run. And then this was the next biggest 0:09:14.280 --> 0:09:17.080 The second biggest swing of the game was Waldy's five 0:09:17.080 --> 0:09:19.760 four to three double play. That was the second biggest 0:09:19.840 --> 0:09:23.880 WPA the game. That was worth negative twenty percent to 0:09:23.920 --> 0:09:27.120 the win percentage. They had actually gotten back to within 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:30.520 striking distance twenty seven point four percent. I mean, you know, 0:09:30.920 --> 0:09:33.920 it's a six three ball game. One out, bases loaded, 0:09:34.080 --> 0:09:36.960 seventh inning, you know, you get something done there and 0:09:37.000 --> 0:09:40.360 now you're you're getting back close to fifty percent. Instead 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:43.360 he hits into the double play, the win expectancy drops 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:47.360 twenty percent and down to seven point one percent, and 0:09:47.360 --> 0:09:49.559 that essentially, you know, pop back up a little bit, 0:09:49.600 --> 0:09:51.280 like you said when Corbyn homered. 0:09:52.120 --> 0:09:53.120 The other thing is, you know. 0:09:53.040 --> 0:09:55.880 Nolan did not have a good game, you know, and 0:09:56.640 --> 0:10:00.200 it needs to be said. If you look at the 0:10:00.240 --> 0:10:05.800 average leverage index or the player leverage index, Nolan's index 0:10:05.920 --> 0:10:10.120 is the highest amongst the qualified batters on the team. 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:13.360 In other words, he's actually had the most high leverage 0:10:14.160 --> 0:10:18.120 key situations and he's got a negative DPA WPA of 0:10:18.360 --> 0:10:21.560 minus one, maybe even a little higher than that after 0:10:21.600 --> 0:10:25.640 today's game, So you know, I mean, Dolan's come through 0:10:25.640 --> 0:10:27.439 with some big hits, but at the same time, the 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:31.920 full season one hundred and twenty games numbers, when you 0:10:31.960 --> 0:10:35.800 add them all up, he's actually fairly negative. I mean, 0:10:35.840 --> 0:10:39.719 he's got the largest negative WPA amongst the starteus that 0:10:39.800 --> 0:10:42.559 have qualified that are qualified for the batting title. 0:10:45.360 --> 0:10:48.040 Yeah, I mean, I think overall, like Nolan is still 0:10:48.080 --> 0:10:50.200 it's hard to be upset with what he's given the 0:10:50.200 --> 0:10:52.880 Diamondbacks this season. He's probably going to hit twenty home runs, 0:10:52.920 --> 0:10:56.240 but it is a good point that the context and 0:10:56.280 --> 0:10:59.080 the timing of those hits does matter, and there have 0:10:59.200 --> 0:11:01.080 been some big ones there, but there have also been 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:04.040 a lot of situations like what we saw in this game, 0:11:04.280 --> 0:11:06.480 where he's just not able to come through in one 0:11:06.520 --> 0:11:10.480 of those key moments. Unfortunately, Jack, the San Diego Padres 0:11:10.559 --> 0:11:13.720 just continue to win. They beat the Milwaukee Brewers in 0:11:13.800 --> 0:11:17.319 eleven innings today, found a way to score two runs 0:11:17.360 --> 0:11:19.840 in the bottom half of the eleventh inning, to walk 0:11:19.880 --> 0:11:23.800 it off. So this is where the standings sit right now. 0:11:23.840 --> 0:11:27.240 The Padres now have sole possession of the second wild 0:11:27.280 --> 0:11:30.000 card spot there at sixty five and fifty seven. The 0:11:30.000 --> 0:11:33.480 Phillies lost again. They're not exactly cruising right now. They 0:11:33.520 --> 0:11:36.640 lost seven to one to Saint Louis today, So the 0:11:36.640 --> 0:11:39.920 Phillies and Diamondbacks are now tied for that third wildcard 0:11:40.000 --> 0:11:43.400 spot at sixty four and fifty eight. Dbacs technically have 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:46.400 the tiebreaker there. I guess that's something we should keep 0:11:46.440 --> 0:11:48.600 an eye on. They took two out of three from 0:11:48.679 --> 0:11:52.320 Philadelphia earlier in the season. There's another series between those 0:11:52.320 --> 0:11:55.040 two teams here in a couple of weeks. The Marlins 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:56.920 have crept back up in this thing. They're only a 0:11:56.960 --> 0:11:59.200 game and a half out. The Cardinals are two and 0:11:59.200 --> 0:12:02.920 a half games. Really nice series from them against Philly, 0:12:03.320 --> 0:12:06.520 and then the Nationals, Reds, and Pirates all between five 0:12:06.559 --> 0:12:10.120 and six games out here as we record on Wednesday nights. 0:12:10.160 --> 0:12:13.720 So the Diamondbacks playoff odds have effectively been a coin 0:12:13.760 --> 0:12:16.840 flip for a while now. They've been a little over 0:12:16.920 --> 0:12:20.160 fifty percent. Now they're a little under fifty percent depending 0:12:20.240 --> 0:12:22.480 on where you look. Fangrafts has them at forty two 0:12:22.520 --> 0:12:26.480 point eight right now. But unfortunately, we've reached the point, 0:12:26.600 --> 0:12:28.800 Jack where I think the projection systems are going to 0:12:28.880 --> 0:12:32.360 favor the Padres and the Phillies over this Diamondbacks team. 0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:36.000 They're now inarguably the worst position out of those three teams. 0:12:37.000 --> 0:12:39.680 Yeah, and it's because they have an offense that just 0:12:39.800 --> 0:12:42.000 does not project on paper to be able to get 0:12:42.000 --> 0:12:45.400 the job done at this point. Even though Katel and 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:49.360 Corbyn are clearly starting to turn it around, there's just 0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:54.840 not enough support there, yeah, you know, and it's just 0:12:54.920 --> 0:12:57.880 showing up in game after game, like, Okay, we have 0:12:58.000 --> 0:12:59.679 a nice little stretch there where the bottom of the 0:12:59.720 --> 0:13:03.559 line was doing really well and Corbyn and Catel weren't hitting. 0:13:04.000 --> 0:13:06.880 Now those guys are starting to turn it on and 0:13:07.200 --> 0:13:09.600 the bottom of the order is starting to look like 0:13:09.640 --> 0:13:14.679 the role players that they are. And you know, unfortunately 0:13:14.760 --> 0:13:17.640 Lars Newbar has not come in and had any positive 0:13:17.679 --> 0:13:20.920 impact yet. I don't know if from when he will, 0:13:22.120 --> 0:13:25.760 you know, I mean, he really has struggled a lot 0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:28.319 since coming back from He did have a good June, 0:13:28.760 --> 0:13:31.880 but other than that, he's struggled for you know, better 0:13:31.920 --> 0:13:35.200 part of two years now, and we know well that 0:13:35.280 --> 0:13:37.840 he went through a really tough time with a surgery. 0:13:37.920 --> 0:13:40.640 But you know, that guy's got to start doing something. 0:13:40.679 --> 0:13:43.520 He's gonna start contributing otherwise it's really going to be 0:13:44.520 --> 0:13:46.360 a very tough look for my kasm. 0:13:48.240 --> 0:13:51.720 Yeah, there's no getting around that. The Diamondbacks only made 0:13:51.800 --> 0:13:54.080 one move at the trade deadline and it was to 0:13:54.120 --> 0:13:56.440 go get Lar's new bar. So still a lot of 0:13:56.480 --> 0:13:59.760 time left. He's only played. You know, we're still about 0:13:59.800 --> 0:14:02.360 a week or so of games at this point from him. 0:14:02.679 --> 0:14:05.280 Lots of time to turn things around. But I guess 0:14:05.320 --> 0:14:07.640 not a disaster of a Homestand for the Dbacks, when 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:10.000 you look all the way back, you know, they split 0:14:10.040 --> 0:14:12.400 the series with San Diego, they take two out of 0:14:12.400 --> 0:14:15.320 three from LA and then they come right back and 0:14:15.360 --> 0:14:17.800 lose two out of three to Colorado. I guess if 0:14:17.800 --> 0:14:22.640 those outcomes had been swapped, like maybe everyone's just like, well, yeah, 0:14:22.680 --> 0:14:24.480 you're probably gonna lose two out of three to the 0:14:24.520 --> 0:14:27.120 Dodgers and winning two out of three to the Rockies 0:14:27.200 --> 0:14:30.200 is totally fine, and maybe there's not so much negativity 0:14:30.280 --> 0:14:33.240 right now. But losing to this Rockies team at home, 0:14:33.920 --> 0:14:37.640 especially while the San Diego Padres go out and sweep 0:14:37.680 --> 0:14:41.080 the Brewers, who came into that series with the best 0:14:41.080 --> 0:14:45.040 record in baseball. The optics are just not great right now. Well, 0:14:45.040 --> 0:14:47.760 this is a mail bag episode and we are excited 0:14:47.840 --> 0:14:51.200 to dive into all of your mail bag questions. So 0:14:51.840 --> 0:14:54.400 with that said, don't go anywhere. We'll be back right 0:14:54.440 --> 0:14:56.360 after this here on Snake's territory. 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:03.160 Let's talk Aboutletox, shall we. They have apparel for every season. 0:15:03.360 --> 0:15:05.720 We're wearing it as we talk about it. It's soft, 0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:08.360 it's comfortable. 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Take a quick style quiz and be 0:15:42.000 --> 0:15:45.920 sure to select foul when prompted to unlock this offer. 0:15:46.160 --> 0:15:48.960 This is a limited time offer, so do not wait again. 0:15:49.200 --> 0:15:54.400 That's fabletics dot com slash foul for seventy to eighty 0:15:54.440 --> 0:15:56.800 percent off everything as a new VIP. 0:15:58.800 --> 0:16:02.440 Welcome back to Snake's Territory. Thank you all for being here. 0:16:02.480 --> 0:16:05.160 We really appreciate your time. If you haven't already, it 0:16:05.240 --> 0:16:07.240 really helps us out if you would drop a like 0:16:07.360 --> 0:16:10.000 on this video while you're at it, subscribe to the channel, 0:16:10.120 --> 0:16:12.720 hit the bell icon for notifications so you never miss 0:16:12.760 --> 0:16:15.240 an episode of the show. Maybe get a cool hat 0:16:15.680 --> 0:16:18.080 like the one that Jack is wearing or a cool 0:16:18.120 --> 0:16:20.200 T shirt like the one that I am wearing. You 0:16:20.240 --> 0:16:23.560 can get those over at Snake's territoryshop dot com. And finally, 0:16:23.640 --> 0:16:26.760 for joining us on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, it also 0:16:26.800 --> 0:16:29.360 really helps us out if you would leave us a 0:16:29.480 --> 0:16:32.640 five star review. With that, we're gonna go ahead and 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:35.240 jump on into the mailbag, one of our favorite things 0:16:35.240 --> 0:16:38.920 to do here on Snake's Territory. Our first question comes 0:16:38.920 --> 0:16:43.760 from y e roc three one zero three over on Reddit. 0:16:44.360 --> 0:16:47.000 They say, how would you rate Tory's performance so far 0:16:47.080 --> 0:16:49.760 this season? If we miss the playoffs by a game 0:16:49.880 --> 0:16:52.120 or two. Has he done enough with this group to 0:16:52.360 --> 0:16:55.640 justify renewing his contract? Jack, what do you think? 0:16:57.640 --> 0:17:02.160 I think very much that he must make the playoffs 0:17:02.200 --> 0:17:06.679 in order to be brought back, and maybe even just 0:17:07.040 --> 0:17:09.600 winning a while, you know, getting to the wildcard and 0:17:09.760 --> 0:17:12.640 losing two games out of three in the wild card 0:17:12.760 --> 0:17:16.680 or something that might precipitate him not being brought back 0:17:16.720 --> 0:17:19.080 as well. I think they need to make the playoffs 0:17:19.080 --> 0:17:21.840 and maybe even need to win their first round for 0:17:21.960 --> 0:17:24.840 him to be able to continue as the manager of 0:17:24.920 --> 0:17:28.160 the Arizona Diamondbacks. As far as assessing the job he's 0:17:28.240 --> 0:17:32.080 doing this year, it's so hard. I mean, look, I 0:17:33.440 --> 0:17:35.480 get a little tired of all the Tory arguments and 0:17:35.560 --> 0:17:40.200 Tory debates because most of it's just simply coming from frustration, 0:17:40.560 --> 0:17:42.480 you know, and the off site. Well, they're not making 0:17:42.480 --> 0:17:44.520 the playoffs and you haven't made playoffs in ten years, 0:17:44.520 --> 0:17:47.199 and you know, look, you work with what you have, 0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:48.800 and every time you point out that a lot of 0:17:48.800 --> 0:17:51.439 times he hasn't had the best rosters and oftentimes had 0:17:51.480 --> 0:17:54.280 lousy bullpens, it's like, oh, you're a Tori apologist, and 0:17:54.320 --> 0:17:57.680 you know it's like I'm not for ready, it's so tired. 0:17:58.840 --> 0:18:00.359 But what I want I want, I want to look 0:18:00.359 --> 0:18:01.800 at this subjectively real quick. 0:18:03.160 --> 0:18:08.479 I often like to look at the fangrafs, Pythogoreean and 0:18:08.640 --> 0:18:13.880 base runs standings versus actual And now that doesn't mean 0:18:14.000 --> 0:18:18.760 if there's a big difference there, it's necessarily the manager 0:18:18.960 --> 0:18:22.280 that's all responsible for that. But that's where maybe you 0:18:22.320 --> 0:18:25.360 can tease out, like some of that difference is going 0:18:25.440 --> 0:18:29.119 to be perhaps due to what's. 0:18:28.480 --> 0:18:30.160 Going on from the dugout. 0:18:31.359 --> 0:18:34.520 So coming into today, the Diamondbacks were sixty four and 0:18:34.560 --> 0:18:38.840 fifty seven, and their Python Gaorean one loss, which is 0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:41.920 based on runs scored and runs allowed, was sixty two 0:18:41.920 --> 0:18:45.640 and fifty nine, So there were two games better than 0:18:45.720 --> 0:18:50.400 there in their actual then versus their pythagoreeon. The other 0:18:51.080 --> 0:18:53.359 number to look at is the base runs, which is 0:18:54.480 --> 0:18:58.639 base runs is what you do as far as without sequencing, 0:18:58.680 --> 0:19:03.760 So it's all of the events. It's all of the hits, walks, homers, strikeouts, 0:19:03.840 --> 0:19:10.880 everything that happens, but ignoring sequencing, ignoring clutch, ignoring runners 0:19:10.880 --> 0:19:13.919 in scoring position, it's how many runs you should have 0:19:14.080 --> 0:19:18.600 scored based on these events, and on that metric they're 0:19:18.720 --> 0:19:21.920 sixty and sixty one, So in other words, they've been 0:19:22.080 --> 0:19:25.120 four games better than their base runs. You can find 0:19:25.119 --> 0:19:29.119 all this that fangrafs under their standings tab. So what 0:19:29.160 --> 0:19:34.159 does that mean? Basically, the Diamondbacks actual one loss record 0:19:34.160 --> 0:19:38.440 has outperformed they're expected one loss based on runs scored 0:19:38.440 --> 0:19:43.120 and runs allowed, and it's all. They've also exceeded their 0:19:44.160 --> 0:19:49.719 one loss based on expected runs. So most of that 0:19:49.960 --> 0:19:52.280 is luck or sequencing or just you know, the way 0:19:52.280 --> 0:19:56.359 the ball's bouncing. But if there's any room in there 0:19:56.400 --> 0:19:59.080 to try to tease out, some of that may be 0:19:59.200 --> 0:20:02.080 due to the manager and how he's managed things and 0:20:02.119 --> 0:20:05.040 how him and his coaching staff have managed the players. 0:20:05.480 --> 0:20:07.400 So you can say that the team is. 0:20:07.320 --> 0:20:11.600 Slightly overperforming what they should have gotten wins wise. Now 0:20:11.680 --> 0:20:14.440 it's a double edged sword because I'm talking about twenty 0:20:14.480 --> 0:20:17.680 twenty six. If you go back to previous years, Tory 0:20:17.760 --> 0:20:21.399 would more frequently be on the negative side of this ledger. 0:20:24.160 --> 0:20:26.520 That's all really good stuff. I don't have a whole 0:20:26.560 --> 0:20:28.760 lot to add other than to just say I think 0:20:28.800 --> 0:20:30.960 it's funny that I want to say. It was two 0:20:31.000 --> 0:20:34.120 days ago there was Twitter discourse about whether Tory could 0:20:34.160 --> 0:20:37.560 win Manager of the Year. You know, like, I think 0:20:37.600 --> 0:20:39.720 there is a valid case that some people are making 0:20:39.760 --> 0:20:42.600 and now we're like, yeah, you know, I'm sure that's 0:20:42.600 --> 0:20:45.440 how people feel right now. After losing these last two 0:20:45.480 --> 0:20:47.439 games to the Rocky is like, yeah, it's time to 0:20:47.440 --> 0:20:49.879 move on from this guy, right, So it feels like 0:20:49.920 --> 0:20:52.919 the narrative here changes every couple of days. I agree 0:20:52.920 --> 0:20:56.159 with you that, Hey, yeah, what were you going to say? 0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:59.920 Who's the narrative? I mean, forget Twitter, right, it's all nonsense. 0:21:00.359 --> 0:21:04.160 I live on I care about. 0:21:05.240 --> 0:21:07.600 Every time they lose two games. It's the same fifty 0:21:07.600 --> 0:21:10.720 people that's retweeting over and over and over and over 0:21:10.760 --> 0:21:12.160 and over and over and over about fire. 0:21:15.440 --> 0:21:17.080 Yeah, that's fair. I don't think it. 0:21:17.080 --> 0:21:19.760 Just brings nothing to the discourse. I mean, I'm not 0:21:19.920 --> 0:21:25.360 saying that there isn't a good evaluation exercise that needs 0:21:25.400 --> 0:21:28.520 to be done here in evaluating Tory Leavello. And that's 0:21:28.560 --> 0:21:31.879