1 00:00:00,600 --> 00:00:03,960 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros College 2 00:00:04,000 --> 00:00:08,360 Speaker 1: Football Look, a headline show for Week four. I'm Thomas 3 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,360 Speaker 1: Viola and joining me as always to give his thoughts 4 00:00:11,360 --> 00:00:13,600 Speaker 1: and analysis on which way the market is going to 5 00:00:13,680 --> 00:00:17,720 Speaker 1: move on this week's college football Action. Thor, nice room, Thor, 6 00:00:18,079 --> 00:00:18,960 Speaker 1: how are you doing today? 7 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:22,200 Speaker 2: Well, Thomas, my alma mater, my undergrad alma mater, Kansas 8 00:00:22,239 --> 00:00:25,480 Speaker 2: is undefeated. Your alma mater, Syracuse is undefeated. So it's 9 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:26,560 Speaker 2: it's a great Sunday. 10 00:00:27,000 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 1: It is fantastic. We're gonna hopefully keep this up all 11 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:33,640 Speaker 1: the way to a national championship because I feel great 12 00:00:33,680 --> 00:00:36,559 Speaker 1: about my chances in the Syracuse Kansas Natty matchup. 13 00:00:37,400 --> 00:00:39,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean maybe they can. They're on pace to 14 00:00:39,320 --> 00:00:41,040 Speaker 2: get there right now. So we'll have to see how 15 00:00:41,040 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 2: it goes the rest of the season. But it started 16 00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 2: off really good, and both those teams are favored by 17 00:00:44,800 --> 00:00:47,239 Speaker 2: more than a touchdown this coming weekend to go to 18 00:00:47,320 --> 00:00:49,680 Speaker 2: four and oh so kind of wild times we're living in. 19 00:00:50,159 --> 00:00:52,400 Speaker 1: That's very true, And let's talk about those games right 20 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:54,200 Speaker 1: off the bat here, because you guys are just gonna 21 00:00:54,240 --> 00:00:57,200 Speaker 1: have to deal with this on this show. First game, 22 00:00:57,280 --> 00:01:01,760 Speaker 1: we will start off with here Virginia in Syracuse. Virginia 23 00:01:02,520 --> 00:01:04,560 Speaker 1: not going to be favored in this one by a 24 00:01:04,600 --> 00:01:09,800 Speaker 1: Heny stretch. Eleven and a half points. Here are Syracuse 25 00:01:09,840 --> 00:01:11,640 Speaker 1: in the dome. What do you think this game should be? 26 00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:15,720 Speaker 2: Well, the line went and open was Syracuse minus eight 27 00:01:15,760 --> 00:01:18,640 Speaker 2: and a half. And I think as long as it's 28 00:01:18,720 --> 00:01:21,119 Speaker 2: under double did is I think it's an enormous steal 29 00:01:21,160 --> 00:01:25,039 Speaker 2: on Syracuse. Right now it's gone to nine. So there 30 00:01:25,080 --> 00:01:27,400 Speaker 2: is some money that's coming in on Syracuse right away, 31 00:01:27,400 --> 00:01:29,760 Speaker 2: but in my opinion, not enough. My justin line, like 32 00:01:29,840 --> 00:01:31,720 Speaker 2: you said, is eleven and a half on this game, 33 00:01:32,040 --> 00:01:34,280 Speaker 2: and I think you could argue that that's too low 34 00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,280 Speaker 2: because you know, like my system, half the result, you know, 35 00:01:38,560 --> 00:01:42,039 Speaker 2: it's comprised of about half last season's results at this 36 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,000 Speaker 2: point right in, like half of what we've seen so far. Well, 37 00:01:45,080 --> 00:01:48,040 Speaker 2: Virginia was way way, way better last year than they 38 00:01:48,080 --> 00:01:51,240 Speaker 2: are now. They've taken enormous step down. We'll talk about 39 00:01:51,240 --> 00:01:55,120 Speaker 2: that in a second. Syracuse has taken a quantifiable multiple 40 00:01:55,160 --> 00:01:57,680 Speaker 2: steps up. But on the Virginia side, I'm just out 41 00:01:57,680 --> 00:01:59,920 Speaker 2: on Virginia. You know, they had lost Bronco. Men in 42 00:02:00,320 --> 00:02:03,360 Speaker 2: Bronco Bennenhall had awesome coordinators they left as well. Of course, 43 00:02:04,000 --> 00:02:06,000 Speaker 2: one of them is on Actually both of them are 44 00:02:06,040 --> 00:02:07,960 Speaker 2: on your sidelines. I think Syracuse got both of them, 45 00:02:08,080 --> 00:02:10,120 Speaker 2: but the big one was Robert and I that the 46 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:14,920 Speaker 2: offensive coordinator. Virginia meanwhile brought in Clemson's former offensive coordinator 47 00:02:14,960 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 2: to take take over their program, and it is not 48 00:02:17,600 --> 00:02:20,520 Speaker 2: going well so far. Right after men in Hall had left, 49 00:02:20,760 --> 00:02:23,440 Speaker 2: Virginia had lost. They had a couple offensive linemen who 50 00:02:23,440 --> 00:02:26,400 Speaker 2: had graduated the rest of their offensive line decided to 51 00:02:26,480 --> 00:02:29,840 Speaker 2: transfer the rest of the starters, so Virginia lost their 52 00:02:30,040 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 2: entire starting offensive line. They have one of the worst 53 00:02:33,200 --> 00:02:35,840 Speaker 2: offensive lines now in college football. Turn on one of 54 00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:38,799 Speaker 2: the Virginia games. It's just like immediately after Armstrong gets 55 00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,960 Speaker 2: the ball, there's people in the backfield. The running backs. 56 00:02:42,040 --> 00:02:45,840 Speaker 2: The stats right now are crazy, like when they're being touched, 57 00:02:46,120 --> 00:02:48,480 Speaker 2: you know, like in comparison to how far they've gotten upfield, 58 00:02:48,800 --> 00:02:51,799 Speaker 2: they're averaging being touched behind the line of scrimmage like 59 00:02:51,919 --> 00:02:55,280 Speaker 2: every single play. So Virginia has all sorts of problems, 60 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:58,160 Speaker 2: and Syracuse it's been sort of the opposite that they 61 00:02:58,240 --> 00:03:01,160 Speaker 2: have just sort of swapped spot in the hierarchy of 62 00:03:01,480 --> 00:03:05,160 Speaker 2: the ACC this game being at Syracuse, I don't really 63 00:03:05,280 --> 00:03:07,520 Speaker 2: understand why the line was only set in the single 64 00:03:07,639 --> 00:03:10,959 Speaker 2: digits outside of just nodding back to last year. But 65 00:03:11,120 --> 00:03:13,359 Speaker 2: like I said, even in my system, where you have 66 00:03:13,440 --> 00:03:16,400 Speaker 2: half the half, it's based on last year's results. I 67 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:19,160 Speaker 2: still have Syracuse favored by eleven point five. I really 68 00:03:19,320 --> 00:03:20,800 Speaker 2: like the Orange and now one. I think they're gonna 69 00:03:20,800 --> 00:03:21,760 Speaker 2: win by double digits. 70 00:03:23,440 --> 00:03:25,880 Speaker 1: I'm excited for it too, especially because it is a 71 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:28,400 Speaker 1: primetime game, which means Mike get a couple of alumni 72 00:03:28,480 --> 00:03:30,880 Speaker 1: out here in Vegas together to watch it and hopefully 73 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 1: we get a nice easy rocking share here. We have 74 00:03:33,000 --> 00:03:36,400 Speaker 1: that in Wagner before the schedule gets brutally tough with 75 00:03:36,600 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: NC State Clems in Florida State Pit and Notre Dame, 76 00:03:41,320 --> 00:03:44,040 Speaker 1: not in that order, but those are the next games 77 00:03:44,080 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 1: coming up for the QS. But let's go over to 78 00:03:46,320 --> 00:03:49,120 Speaker 1: your school. You're alma mater, Kansas and Duke. It's a 79 00:03:49,200 --> 00:03:53,360 Speaker 1: classic rivalry, and hey, it's March in September. Anyway, when 80 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: you look at some of the teams like Indiana, UCLA, 81 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:58,880 Speaker 1: Kansas QS, there are a couple others that are three 82 00:03:59,000 --> 00:04:02,400 Speaker 1: and oh it's feeling like basketball season already. But in 83 00:04:02,520 --> 00:04:06,880 Speaker 1: this one for Kansas eight point favorites over the Dukies. Here, 84 00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:09,200 Speaker 1: do you think that line's right around where it should be. 85 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:12,960 Speaker 2: I yeah, this one a little bit closer because Duke 86 00:04:13,080 --> 00:04:16,360 Speaker 2: is a better opponent. I think Duke is better than Virginia. 87 00:04:17,080 --> 00:04:19,480 Speaker 2: You know, we could you and I could argue Kansas 88 00:04:19,520 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 2: against Syracuse been probably get more heated as the season 89 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:25,800 Speaker 2: goes on, But objectively, I think Duke has passed Virginia 90 00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 2: in the hierarchy a little bit more dangerous. But I 91 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:32,680 Speaker 2: still think there's probably some value on Kansas. While this 92 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,760 Speaker 2: line is in the single digits, I would be surprised 93 00:04:35,800 --> 00:04:38,720 Speaker 2: if there's buyback on Duke. Like as we go forward 94 00:04:38,760 --> 00:04:41,479 Speaker 2: in the week, this line had opened it eight live, 95 00:04:41,560 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 2: it's toggled up to nine, and I think by kickoff 96 00:04:44,520 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: it's going to be ten or more on Kansas. I 97 00:04:48,120 --> 00:04:51,240 Speaker 2: definitely think you could justify that the Kansas beat for sure. 98 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 2: It's really interesting that a team that has been this 99 00:04:53,920 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 2: bad for however many years is favored by nine, but 100 00:04:57,240 --> 00:05:01,040 Speaker 2: it's totally justified. Last week Kansas was underdog by nine 101 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:03,640 Speaker 2: at Houston, and you saw what they did to Houston. 102 00:05:03,680 --> 00:05:05,960 Speaker 2: The week before they were up I believe thirteen and 103 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:08,520 Speaker 2: a half point underdog at West Virginia. Kansas won that 104 00:05:08,600 --> 00:05:11,640 Speaker 2: game too. They won back to back road games against 105 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:15,200 Speaker 2: quality opponents. They Kansas finally gets to go back to Lawrence. 106 00:05:16,160 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 2: This is a pretty good spot I think for Kansas 107 00:05:18,600 --> 00:05:20,400 Speaker 2: to be able to get Duke. Duke another one of 108 00:05:20,440 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 2: those undefeated teams that we're talking about in a basketball 109 00:05:23,160 --> 00:05:25,359 Speaker 2: school as well. But I think the run as an 110 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:27,160 Speaker 2: undefeated team is going to end on Saturday. 111 00:05:27,800 --> 00:05:29,800 Speaker 1: Now, let's shift over to some of these games with 112 00:05:29,920 --> 00:05:31,840 Speaker 1: some of the big players in them. Before we get 113 00:05:31,880 --> 00:05:35,040 Speaker 1: to your favorites of the week, let's start off with 114 00:05:35,279 --> 00:05:36,200 Speaker 1: your own rivals. 115 00:05:36,240 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 2: Here. 116 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:41,200 Speaker 1: We got Kansas State going up against Oklahoma and the Oklahomans. 117 00:05:41,240 --> 00:05:44,400 Speaker 1: The Sooners are thirteen point favorites in this one. Is 118 00:05:44,480 --> 00:05:45,400 Speaker 1: that enough points? 119 00:05:46,000 --> 00:05:48,960 Speaker 2: I think it might be a little bit short based 120 00:05:49,000 --> 00:05:53,080 Speaker 2: on what we had seen yesterday. Oklahoma wiped the floor 121 00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,360 Speaker 2: with Nebraska. I mean Nebraska. Of course, they've been off 122 00:05:56,400 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 2: when they know they fired Scott Frost actually fired their 123 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:03,000 Speaker 2: defensive coordinator today as well, but Nebraska typically has kept 124 00:06:03,080 --> 00:06:07,320 Speaker 2: it closer that game Oklahoma, Nebraska should have been even 125 00:06:07,400 --> 00:06:10,839 Speaker 2: wider the margin of it. Oklahoma was scoring it will 126 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:13,200 Speaker 2: when they had their starters in and they were running 127 00:06:13,240 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 2: their system, and then the second half they brought in 128 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:17,679 Speaker 2: that bevel Kid, the backup, the rest of their backups 129 00:06:17,720 --> 00:06:19,680 Speaker 2: as well, and we're just handing it off, handing and off. 130 00:06:20,560 --> 00:06:23,360 Speaker 2: Kansas State did not look good last week. That was 131 00:06:23,720 --> 00:06:25,720 Speaker 2: Thomas's you know. One of my favorite bets of last 132 00:06:25,760 --> 00:06:29,320 Speaker 2: week was two lane plus fourteen Tulane goes into Manhattan 133 00:06:29,360 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 2: and upsets Kansas State. My problem with Kansas State beforehand 134 00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:37,360 Speaker 2: was you still have a one dimensional offense. They thought 135 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:39,880 Speaker 2: that bringing an Adrian Martinez was going to give them 136 00:06:40,760 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 2: maybe they would be able to be multi dimensional again, 137 00:06:43,560 --> 00:06:45,839 Speaker 2: but it's really not. It's still the Duce Vaughn show. 138 00:06:46,200 --> 00:06:48,440 Speaker 2: Martinez can run around a little bit, but that the 139 00:06:48,560 --> 00:06:51,520 Speaker 2: accuracy has just never improved. So they're going to have 140 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 2: to play one handed against Oklahoma. That's never a good 141 00:06:55,520 --> 00:06:58,400 Speaker 2: thing when you're playing a Breton Venables defense. Venables doesn't 142 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 2: have that defense up to even near where it was 143 00:07:00,880 --> 00:07:04,280 Speaker 2: at Clemson, of course, but the schemes and the machinations 144 00:07:04,320 --> 00:07:05,800 Speaker 2: that he can do to a team that can only 145 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:09,840 Speaker 2: do one thing, those are always the teams that Clemson annihilated. 146 00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:13,560 Speaker 2: So I don't love Kansas State shot going into Oklahoma. 147 00:07:13,840 --> 00:07:15,560 Speaker 2: I just don't think that they match up well. 148 00:07:16,840 --> 00:07:18,840 Speaker 1: One of my best friends, as I'm sure I've mentioned 149 00:07:18,880 --> 00:07:21,320 Speaker 1: on this show before, as a sports reporter in Tulsa, 150 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,480 Speaker 1: and he has a deep seated hatred for Brent Venables. 151 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:27,440 Speaker 1: Now for how long he makes the reporters wait for 152 00:07:27,560 --> 00:07:30,760 Speaker 1: his postgame press conferences, He is ready to be out 153 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:32,720 Speaker 1: of there. But right now we're ready to be onto 154 00:07:32,840 --> 00:07:36,280 Speaker 1: our next game here that is going to be Wisconsin. 155 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,760 Speaker 1: The Badgers take it on the Buckeyes here, Ohio State 156 00:07:39,920 --> 00:07:43,160 Speaker 1: in the shoe seventeen and a half point favorites. You 157 00:07:43,240 --> 00:07:45,600 Speaker 1: think this line is pretty much spot on, though I do. 158 00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 2: My adjusted line on this game is seventeen point three. 159 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:50,720 Speaker 2: It's one of those where like Vegas just plucked it 160 00:07:50,840 --> 00:07:53,880 Speaker 2: right off of my sheet. I think it's right on. 161 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 2: I think this line, at least right now, you see 162 00:07:57,200 --> 00:08:00,240 Speaker 2: what happens during the week and maybe what the markets. 163 00:08:00,280 --> 00:08:02,520 Speaker 2: It gives you some value on one side or the other. 164 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,240 Speaker 2: But if that line remains at seventeen and a half, 165 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,320 Speaker 2: I just don't think you can touch it. If it's somehow, 166 00:08:08,400 --> 00:08:11,080 Speaker 2: you know, yet you have money on Wisconsin the other way, 167 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:13,480 Speaker 2: and it goes down to sixteen and a half. I 168 00:08:13,560 --> 00:08:15,840 Speaker 2: think that's when you could consider an Ohio state bet. 169 00:08:16,320 --> 00:08:20,560 Speaker 2: To consider Wisconsin, that thing's going to have to probably 170 00:08:20,640 --> 00:08:22,720 Speaker 2: get to twenty, and I doubt it's going to go 171 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:24,200 Speaker 2: up by two and a half points, you know, the 172 00:08:24,480 --> 00:08:27,320 Speaker 2: rest of the week. It's one that I'm staying away 173 00:08:27,400 --> 00:08:30,760 Speaker 2: from for now unless something crazy happens with the market, 174 00:08:30,840 --> 00:08:32,480 Speaker 2: but this is probably going to be a stay away. 175 00:08:33,120 --> 00:08:35,719 Speaker 1: How about Arkansas going up against Texas A and M. 176 00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:37,960 Speaker 1: Is A and M two and a half point favorites 177 00:08:38,000 --> 00:08:38,720 Speaker 1: here at home in this one. 178 00:08:39,080 --> 00:08:42,199 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is another one where my line is right on. 179 00:08:42,600 --> 00:08:44,599 Speaker 2: My line on this game was Texas A and M 180 00:08:44,679 --> 00:08:48,000 Speaker 2: minus two point two. A and M is listed as 181 00:08:48,040 --> 00:08:50,160 Speaker 2: the home team, but this is a neutral game being 182 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:53,600 Speaker 2: played in Jerry's world, so you take the homefield advantage 183 00:08:53,640 --> 00:08:55,240 Speaker 2: off of A and M. But this is where the 184 00:08:55,320 --> 00:08:58,559 Speaker 2: line should be Texas A and M minus three or 185 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:00,719 Speaker 2: three and a half. It would be too high, I 186 00:09:00,960 --> 00:09:03,400 Speaker 2: think objectively to open it. But you also can't really 187 00:09:03,480 --> 00:09:05,599 Speaker 2: make it a pick them. So I mean Vegas is 188 00:09:05,679 --> 00:09:08,120 Speaker 2: sort of in this, you know, the zone of allowing 189 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:10,040 Speaker 2: the market to do with this game what they want, 190 00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:12,679 Speaker 2: Vegas isn't isn't making a stake on this game by 191 00:09:13,040 --> 00:09:14,679 Speaker 2: by setting it at three or three and a half 192 00:09:14,800 --> 00:09:18,199 Speaker 2: or whatever. It's a stayaway for me for now, Just 193 00:09:18,280 --> 00:09:20,880 Speaker 2: like the other one. If this line got up to, 194 00:09:21,600 --> 00:09:23,800 Speaker 2: like if I get three and a half points with Arkansas, 195 00:09:24,280 --> 00:09:26,800 Speaker 2: that that that's where it might start to get interesting. 196 00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:29,840 Speaker 2: Four would be that's when I would start to really 197 00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:32,400 Speaker 2: think about buying a ticket. But at least around here, 198 00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:33,800 Speaker 2: I'm not touching this game. 199 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:37,240 Speaker 1: Two more games with the big boys in the SEC 200 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:41,520 Speaker 1: right now, Missouri and Auburn. Auburn six and a half 201 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:42,760 Speaker 1: point favorites right now. 202 00:09:43,160 --> 00:09:46,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, this is this is This is an interesting one. 203 00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:50,520 Speaker 2: I I'm totally out on the Harson era at Auburn. 204 00:09:50,559 --> 00:09:53,040 Speaker 2: I'm not out on Harson. I actually think Harson is 205 00:09:53,080 --> 00:09:56,079 Speaker 2: a decent coach. But even when when he back when 206 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:57,800 Speaker 2: he got hired by Auburn, it was just sort of 207 00:09:57,840 --> 00:09:59,800 Speaker 2: a head scratcher. If you're taking this guy who's been 208 00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:02,679 Speaker 2: on the West Coast's whole life smaller schools, now you're 209 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:04,840 Speaker 2: bringing them in to you know, to the frying pan, 210 00:10:04,960 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 2: into the heat and the SEC on the other side 211 00:10:07,000 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 2: of the country. It seemed like a very weird fit 212 00:10:10,880 --> 00:10:13,240 Speaker 2: culture fit, I guess, and it has turned out to 213 00:10:13,280 --> 00:10:16,400 Speaker 2: be even way worse than that. Auburn wants him out. 214 00:10:16,480 --> 00:10:18,840 Speaker 2: I'm not sure that Harson, if he had his brothers, 215 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:22,120 Speaker 2: would even want to stay there. I'm sort of thinking 216 00:10:22,120 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 2: about Harson as a candidate to take one of these 217 00:10:24,320 --> 00:10:26,680 Speaker 2: PAC twelve jobs. I'm sure we're going to talk about 218 00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:28,839 Speaker 2: Arizona State firing Herm Edwards here in a bit, but 219 00:10:29,200 --> 00:10:31,920 Speaker 2: he Harson could be looked at for that could potentially 220 00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 2: be looked at for the Colorado job winning if they 221 00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:39,160 Speaker 2: fire Carl Durrell. But this one, the books are are 222 00:10:39,320 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 2: definitely downgrading Auburn, and they're definitely anticipating that the market 223 00:10:43,880 --> 00:10:46,800 Speaker 2: wants to bet against Auburn. My line in this game 224 00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:50,360 Speaker 2: is Auburn minus nine point four. It's Auburn minus six 225 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:52,959 Speaker 2: and a half points live. I think the reason that 226 00:10:53,040 --> 00:10:55,840 Speaker 2: you sort of get a value on Auburn is because 227 00:10:55,840 --> 00:10:59,440 Speaker 2: of that. Auburn did not look good this past week. Obviously, 228 00:11:00,280 --> 00:11:03,200 Speaker 2: the Auburn fan base was furious at Harson for how 229 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 2: little Tank Bigsby got the ball in that game. It 230 00:11:06,600 --> 00:11:10,280 Speaker 2: wasn't just Auburn's effort. It was a very weird strategy 231 00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:13,120 Speaker 2: by Auburn of like, we're in this big We're in 232 00:11:13,160 --> 00:11:16,320 Speaker 2: a big you know, spot matchup game whatever against Penn State, 233 00:11:16,400 --> 00:11:19,680 Speaker 2: this this marquee non con game, and we're gonna decide 234 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:22,000 Speaker 2: not to feed our best player at the ball and 235 00:11:22,120 --> 00:11:25,240 Speaker 2: instead put the game more in TJ. Finley's hands. We 236 00:11:25,640 --> 00:11:27,640 Speaker 2: know what TJ Finley is at this point, so it 237 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:31,679 Speaker 2: was really really weird. Do I want to bet on Auburn. No, 238 00:11:32,200 --> 00:11:34,719 Speaker 2: But Missouri is another cell team for me, so you 239 00:11:34,840 --> 00:11:38,640 Speaker 2: basically have two cell teams playing against each other. Missouri 240 00:11:38,800 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 2: this this past weekend, Luther Burden, their five star receiver 241 00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:44,600 Speaker 2: of the true freshman who's playing right away and everything. 242 00:11:44,880 --> 00:11:47,160 Speaker 2: He had gotten injured in that game, but he did 243 00:11:47,280 --> 00:11:49,920 Speaker 2: come back, so it seems like, you know it, re 244 00:11:50,160 --> 00:11:53,040 Speaker 2: entered the game. So it seems like his availability will 245 00:11:53,080 --> 00:11:56,000 Speaker 2: not be compromised for this game. Missouri definitely needs him 246 00:11:56,120 --> 00:12:00,280 Speaker 2: against Auburn. Auburn still has that solid defense. I would 247 00:12:00,280 --> 00:12:02,680 Speaker 2: think about an Auburn bet as long as it's under 248 00:12:02,800 --> 00:12:05,679 Speaker 2: seven and if the money starts going the other way 249 00:12:05,720 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 2: on a Missouri and it takes beneath six, Auburn would 250 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:11,320 Speaker 2: be a bet for me for sure. If this line 251 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:13,800 Speaker 2: they'll get to seven, seven and a half, it's going 252 00:12:13,840 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 2: to be a pure stay away from me. 253 00:12:16,360 --> 00:12:18,079 Speaker 1: Now, how about one more game here on the big 254 00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 1: Boys list. We got Clemson and wake Forest going at it. 255 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: The deepon Deacons getting seven points at home. Right now, 256 00:12:25,679 --> 00:12:28,440 Speaker 1: this isn't the Clemson team of old, but it's also 257 00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:30,640 Speaker 1: not the Clemson team of last year that we saw 258 00:12:30,720 --> 00:12:32,880 Speaker 1: get upset by NC State and a couple of other 259 00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:37,160 Speaker 1: bad losses. Where do you rank this Clemson team for 260 00:12:37,200 --> 00:12:40,800 Speaker 1: the year in terms of skill versus hype? And where 261 00:12:40,840 --> 00:12:41,679 Speaker 1: do you rank them in this game? 262 00:12:42,280 --> 00:12:44,920 Speaker 2: Yeah? I do think they're a little bit better than 263 00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 2: last year, but unfortunately it's not that big step for 264 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:50,840 Speaker 2: It's pretty marginal because it's it's the same sort of thing. 265 00:12:50,920 --> 00:12:53,959 Speaker 2: You have the nasty front seven on defense, you have 266 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:57,640 Speaker 2: a good secondary that the offense, you have interesting skill guys, 267 00:12:58,040 --> 00:13:01,600 Speaker 2: especially a running back. But the the offensive line there's 268 00:13:01,640 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 2: been some questions, and then you have the enormous questions 269 00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 2: at quarterback. It's the exact same thing. We want to 270 00:13:06,800 --> 00:13:09,120 Speaker 2: dabble to go out and sign a transfer quarterback that 271 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:11,599 Speaker 2: could have competed with you, Agalle. He didn't want to 272 00:13:11,679 --> 00:13:14,000 Speaker 2: do that. Not only that, it seems like he is 273 00:13:14,080 --> 00:13:17,240 Speaker 2: not interested in allowing Klubnik that the hype five star 274 00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:20,439 Speaker 2: two freshmen they have to even have sort of a 275 00:13:20,880 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 2: He doesn't even want the fan base to think the 276 00:13:22,640 --> 00:13:25,640 Speaker 2: Klubnik has a shot to eventually get that job. They're 277 00:13:25,679 --> 00:13:28,280 Speaker 2: not even bringing Klubnik in when their boat race and 278 00:13:28,440 --> 00:13:31,000 Speaker 2: FCS teams and in some of these blowouts. So they're 279 00:13:31,040 --> 00:13:33,439 Speaker 2: going with Lele for the rest of the season. He 280 00:13:33,640 --> 00:13:36,679 Speaker 2: is exactly what we saw the year before. But I 281 00:13:37,080 --> 00:13:40,319 Speaker 2: still think this line it's a little bit short for me. 282 00:13:40,440 --> 00:13:43,319 Speaker 2: This line should be closer to Clemson minus ten. It 283 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,640 Speaker 2: did open up. It was like when it opened, it 284 00:13:45,720 --> 00:13:47,440 Speaker 2: was like Clemson minus seven and a half or eight 285 00:13:47,559 --> 00:13:50,520 Speaker 2: something like that. Early money, like immediately I'm talking on 286 00:13:50,600 --> 00:13:53,079 Speaker 2: Sunday afternoon, right when it drops. It came in on 287 00:13:53,160 --> 00:13:56,560 Speaker 2: Waite Force very early. That's when it toggled back to seven. 288 00:13:57,000 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 2: I would have to imagine though, that the market is 289 00:13:59,160 --> 00:14:01,400 Speaker 2: going to be buying on this week to get it 290 00:14:01,440 --> 00:14:04,280 Speaker 2: closer to ten. I actually bought the ticket on Clemson 291 00:14:04,360 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 2: when it got to seven because I think that's a 292 00:14:07,440 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 2: pretty solid price for them right there. But if it 293 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:12,280 Speaker 2: gets up you know, seven and a half or over, 294 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 2: that it's starting to be a little bit less value. 295 00:14:14,800 --> 00:14:17,319 Speaker 2: So if you know, if you see this line at seven, 296 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:20,680 Speaker 2: whenever you hear this, I think you could you could 297 00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:24,280 Speaker 2: talk yourself into a Clemson bet for sure on the value. 298 00:14:24,640 --> 00:14:27,280 Speaker 2: I'm not interested in wake Forest at this line. You know, 299 00:14:27,360 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 2: even with Hartman being back and stuff like that, they 300 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:33,040 Speaker 2: did not look good last week against Liberty and Thomas Is. 301 00:14:33,040 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 2: You know, I I'm higher on Liberty than the market is, 302 00:14:36,320 --> 00:14:38,240 Speaker 2: so I'm not going to say that that was an 303 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:42,040 Speaker 2: embarrassing performance by any means, But objectively, wake Forest at 304 00:14:42,080 --> 00:14:44,880 Speaker 2: double digit points better than Liberty, So I mean they're 305 00:14:45,240 --> 00:14:48,720 Speaker 2: they're not playing great. I mean, at least initially with Hartman, 306 00:14:49,120 --> 00:14:51,040 Speaker 2: it's not the same team that we saw last year. 307 00:14:51,160 --> 00:14:55,400 Speaker 2: Yet Are they magic? Is that the twenty one team 308 00:14:55,440 --> 00:14:58,560 Speaker 2: magically going to show up against Clemson? Maybe, but Clemson's 309 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:01,920 Speaker 2: gonna get Brian Bresay back. I think Brian Breesaid one 310 00:15:01,920 --> 00:15:04,720 Speaker 2: of the best defensive tackles in America, maybe the best, 311 00:15:04,920 --> 00:15:07,800 Speaker 2: and one of the best defenders in America. He messed 312 00:15:07,840 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 2: last week's game with a sad story. His sister passed away, 313 00:15:11,760 --> 00:15:13,400 Speaker 2: so he was away from the team, But you would 314 00:15:13,400 --> 00:15:15,200 Speaker 2: have to think that he's going to be back this week. 315 00:15:15,600 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 2: I do lean Clemson in this game. If that line 316 00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:18,400 Speaker 2: is at seven. 317 00:15:19,640 --> 00:15:22,520 Speaker 1: The next one up here, Thors, we switch into some 318 00:15:22,880 --> 00:15:26,240 Speaker 1: of your so some of your Thor's Hammer plays here. 319 00:15:26,640 --> 00:15:29,920 Speaker 1: We've got Florida International going up against Western Kentucky, and 320 00:15:29,960 --> 00:15:32,320 Speaker 1: I would very much like to thank you. You made 321 00:15:32,400 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 1: up for the Notre Dame call last week with Western Kentucky. 322 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:37,440 Speaker 1: You made me some money on that one and got 323 00:15:37,520 --> 00:15:40,760 Speaker 1: me back to Evan. They are twenty six and a 324 00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 1: half point favorites in this game. Is that the right 325 00:15:45,240 --> 00:15:47,120 Speaker 1: number or do you think that there should be more 326 00:15:47,160 --> 00:15:48,080 Speaker 1: points on the board here? 327 00:15:48,400 --> 00:15:50,520 Speaker 2: Yeah? Well, and we should have won both those bets. 328 00:15:50,520 --> 00:15:54,360 Speaker 2: I'm gonna have nightmares about the reverse fumble recovery for 329 00:15:54,400 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 2: a touchdown at the end of the game with Notre Dame. Yeah, 330 00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 2: for the next couple of weeks. But yeah, Western Kentuck. 331 00:16:00,080 --> 00:16:02,720 Speaker 2: He was everything that I thought they would be against Indiana. 332 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:05,840 Speaker 2: We had talked about that game last week, Western Kentucky's 333 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 2: passing offense going up against that Indiana secondary that hadn't 334 00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:11,760 Speaker 2: been good so far. Western Kentucky controlled that game throughout 335 00:16:12,400 --> 00:16:15,960 Speaker 2: and they vastly all played Indiana, but Indiana pulled another 336 00:16:16,080 --> 00:16:18,080 Speaker 2: game from out of their butts. You know, at the 337 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:20,640 Speaker 2: end of the game, they forced overtime and then they 338 00:16:20,680 --> 00:16:23,720 Speaker 2: were able to win in overtime through a variety of 339 00:16:23,840 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 2: weird circumstances, just like they had done to Illinois before. 340 00:16:28,120 --> 00:16:30,560 Speaker 2: Indiana is one of the most In fact, I'll just 341 00:16:30,600 --> 00:16:32,800 Speaker 2: say it like this, Indiana is the most fraudulent team 342 00:16:32,840 --> 00:16:36,280 Speaker 2: in the country. They're three and zero and there's this 343 00:16:36,440 --> 00:16:39,480 Speaker 2: isn't just my opinion second order wins. They're at like 344 00:16:39,560 --> 00:16:43,600 Speaker 2: one point four second order wins. Indiana is second order wins. 345 00:16:43,680 --> 00:16:47,480 Speaker 2: Considers them to already have only through three games one 346 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 2: point six wins of just luck, which through three games, 347 00:16:52,400 --> 00:16:55,520 Speaker 2: I don't know if I've ever seen that before. But anyway, 348 00:16:55,760 --> 00:16:58,760 Speaker 2: Western Kentucky should have won that game. They performed just 349 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:00,920 Speaker 2: as good as we thought, which, you know, pointing back 350 00:17:00,960 --> 00:17:04,080 Speaker 2: at this Andicap, my line on this game is Western 351 00:17:04,119 --> 00:17:07,840 Speaker 2: Kentucky by thirty two points six points. You know, Western 352 00:17:07,880 --> 00:17:11,879 Speaker 2: Kentucky's taking a small step backwards for sure, losing Zapi, 353 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:15,480 Speaker 2: losing Sterns, but the receiving core is still awesome. And 354 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:17,879 Speaker 2: Austin Reid, the quarterback they brought in that the D 355 00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 2: two player of the year last year. He's getting better. 356 00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,200 Speaker 2: You can see the progression each week. He didn't acclimate 357 00:17:24,280 --> 00:17:27,000 Speaker 2: to the system quite as quick as Zapi did, but 358 00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,440 Speaker 2: that makes sense. Zapi was playing for his offensive coordinator 359 00:17:30,520 --> 00:17:34,240 Speaker 2: at the Fcschoal Zach Kittley. He had gone with with 360 00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:37,400 Speaker 2: Zapi from Houston Baptist To to Western Kentucky. Now Zach 361 00:17:37,480 --> 00:17:41,080 Speaker 2: Kittley's down at Texas Tech running that offensive. Of course, 362 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:44,160 Speaker 2: Zappi's in the NFL, but Reid is trying to learn 363 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:47,120 Speaker 2: a very similar system to what Zapi ran because Western 364 00:17:47,200 --> 00:17:50,920 Speaker 2: Kentucky just kept it installed even with Kittley bounceing. I 365 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:53,680 Speaker 2: like Western Kentucky a lot in this game. I think 366 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:56,200 Speaker 2: this line is too short. It should have opened twenty 367 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:58,240 Speaker 2: eight or a little bit above. As long as you 368 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 2: can get the Hilltoppers beneath twenty, they're a value and 369 00:18:01,880 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 2: a buy for sure. Florida International I have in my 370 00:18:05,240 --> 00:18:08,280 Speaker 2: Power rankings as the worst team in all of America 371 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,439 Speaker 2: one thirty one out of one thirty one. They are 372 00:18:11,720 --> 00:18:15,200 Speaker 2: quite bad. There's just a dearth of talent there, and 373 00:18:15,280 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 2: then you had a new coaching staff taken over. I 374 00:18:17,720 --> 00:18:21,440 Speaker 2: like Mike McIntyre, the former Colorado coach, former San Jose's 375 00:18:21,720 --> 00:18:24,520 Speaker 2: state coach that had taken over there. But it's gonna 376 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:26,520 Speaker 2: take him a couple of years, especially with how bad 377 00:18:26,560 --> 00:18:28,880 Speaker 2: that roster had gotten at the end of the Butch 378 00:18:28,960 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 2: Davis era just wasn't recruiting very well and seemed to 379 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:34,720 Speaker 2: be checked out and stuff like that. So so you know, 380 00:18:34,800 --> 00:18:38,000 Speaker 2: it's a holidall roster. I like Western Kentucky to absolutely 381 00:18:38,119 --> 00:18:41,280 Speaker 2: bolt race FYU on Saturday. On Saturday. 382 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:44,400 Speaker 1: Yeah, now, you talked about Indiana being the most fraudulent 383 00:18:44,480 --> 00:18:47,760 Speaker 1: team in the country. They're going up against the Bearcats 384 00:18:47,880 --> 00:18:50,960 Speaker 1: and they're getting fourteen points to do it in Cincinnati. 385 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:53,359 Speaker 1: I'm going to take a while, guess, And you're saying 386 00:18:53,359 --> 00:18:55,080 Speaker 1: there should be more money on the Bearcats. 387 00:18:55,520 --> 00:18:59,080 Speaker 2: Oh yeah, yeah, one thousand percent. So like when today, 388 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:01,320 Speaker 2: you know, like you wait up on Sunday and I'm 389 00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:03,399 Speaker 2: like running my numbers, you know, and stuff like that. 390 00:19:03,800 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 2: I have my eye on this game the whole time 391 00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:09,080 Speaker 2: because I knew that that Indiana was going to get 392 00:19:09,119 --> 00:19:13,280 Speaker 2: way too much credit when it initially dropped the circle 393 00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,480 Speaker 2: line on this game was only like Cincinnati minus nine, 394 00:19:16,840 --> 00:19:19,080 Speaker 2: and so then I was like refreshing my book, refreshing 395 00:19:19,160 --> 00:19:21,720 Speaker 2: my book because I wanted this line in the single 396 00:19:21,800 --> 00:19:25,280 Speaker 2: digits so badly, but when it dropped on my book, 397 00:19:25,359 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 2: it was fourteen. So you know, my book was clearly 398 00:19:28,280 --> 00:19:30,000 Speaker 2: waiting for the money to come in on the other 399 00:19:30,080 --> 00:19:32,440 Speaker 2: bucks and for those books to be the ones with 400 00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:35,320 Speaker 2: the first exposure and then allow the sharps to bat 401 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:37,800 Speaker 2: the thing around. The Sharps did the correct thing. They 402 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:42,240 Speaker 2: absolutely hammered Cincinnati. The opening line was way too low, 403 00:19:42,560 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 2: as expected, of course, because again Indiana's this fraudulent three 404 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,480 Speaker 2: and oh team. Indiana should have one win, maybe two, 405 00:19:49,960 --> 00:19:51,479 Speaker 2: but but you know they should be like a one 406 00:19:51,520 --> 00:19:55,520 Speaker 2: and two team and instead that they're three and oh. Cincinnati. 407 00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,439 Speaker 2: They almost were undefeated, you know, like the looking at 408 00:19:58,440 --> 00:20:01,959 Speaker 2: it the other way, They arguably should have beaten Arkansas. 409 00:20:02,040 --> 00:20:05,080 Speaker 2: They were very very very close, and you know, it 410 00:20:05,200 --> 00:20:07,960 Speaker 2: just didn't go their way at the end. But Cincinnati, 411 00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:09,840 Speaker 2: I think is better than people think. People thought that 412 00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,199 Speaker 2: they would fall way off after what they lost over 413 00:20:12,240 --> 00:20:15,520 Speaker 2: the offseason, but definitely took a step backwards. But I 414 00:20:15,520 --> 00:20:18,040 Speaker 2: don't think as many steps as the market seems to believe, 415 00:20:18,560 --> 00:20:21,840 Speaker 2: and Indiana is totally, totally fraudulent. My line in this 416 00:20:21,960 --> 00:20:25,880 Speaker 2: game is Cincinnati minus nineteen point six. I would absolutely 417 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:29,320 Speaker 2: bet it all the way up there. I hell, I 418 00:20:29,359 --> 00:20:31,600 Speaker 2: would have laid twenty points I think on Cincinnati if 419 00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:34,680 Speaker 2: the Bucks were gonna force me like I think that 420 00:20:34,800 --> 00:20:38,000 Speaker 2: Cincinnati is absolutely going to stomp this fraudulent Indiana team. 421 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 2: I mean, I'm right. 422 00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:43,760 Speaker 1: There with you on this Cincinnati team. Even with the 423 00:20:43,840 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: loss of some of their big talent going to the 424 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:49,639 Speaker 1: NFL last year, They're still up there, and I'm with you. 425 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,439 Speaker 1: I have no faith in Indiana. I think that they 426 00:20:52,480 --> 00:20:55,399 Speaker 1: are incredibly fraudulent. They shouldn't have they shouldn't have come 427 00:20:55,480 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 1: back to win that game against Western Kentucky in the 428 00:20:57,680 --> 00:21:00,879 Speaker 1: first place. I almost cash the money line ticket on that, 429 00:21:01,400 --> 00:21:05,040 Speaker 1: Thank god, I bet. Thank god I bet the spread instead. 430 00:21:05,080 --> 00:21:07,280 Speaker 1: I talked myself out of it the last minute because 431 00:21:07,280 --> 00:21:10,280 Speaker 1: I was going to be sitting there devastated. But let's 432 00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:14,560 Speaker 1: move on here. Two massive schools going at it, Akron 433 00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:18,480 Speaker 1: and Liberty. Liberty twenty four and a half point favorites 434 00:21:18,520 --> 00:21:20,600 Speaker 1: in this game. I know you're already high on them. 435 00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:23,480 Speaker 1: I think this is the college football game day, the 436 00:21:23,520 --> 00:21:25,960 Speaker 1: week game this week. Where are you going in it? 437 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:28,959 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean not much more of a Marquie one 438 00:21:29,000 --> 00:21:31,480 Speaker 2: than they had last week. And yet we couldn't get 439 00:21:31,520 --> 00:21:34,680 Speaker 2: game day and Lawrence for undefeated Kansas against undefeated Duke. 440 00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:39,240 Speaker 2: But I digress. I like Liberty in this one. You know, Thomas, 441 00:21:39,280 --> 00:21:41,520 Speaker 2: I've been higher on Liberty than the market all season. 442 00:21:42,200 --> 00:21:44,239 Speaker 2: And you know, a couple of weeks ago they had 443 00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:47,480 Speaker 2: the upset of with as the six and a half 444 00:21:47,480 --> 00:21:49,439 Speaker 2: point dog. I'm blanking on who they upset, but they 445 00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:52,439 Speaker 2: oh U A B. They upset UA B. And then 446 00:21:52,560 --> 00:21:54,840 Speaker 2: and then you turn around and last week almost upset 447 00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 2: wake Forest like I was talking about before, very impressiveform 448 00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:01,600 Speaker 2: to almost pull off a second straight stunner. That one 449 00:22:01,640 --> 00:22:04,320 Speaker 2: would have even been more stunning. Now you turn around, 450 00:22:04,440 --> 00:22:06,879 Speaker 2: you get the pats he coming to your place. I mean, 451 00:22:07,240 --> 00:22:09,320 Speaker 2: this is good time for Liberty after the past couple 452 00:22:09,359 --> 00:22:12,320 Speaker 2: of games they had. Akron I believe his bottom three 453 00:22:12,640 --> 00:22:16,040 Speaker 2: in my power ratings. You are bullish on Joe Morehead 454 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:19,080 Speaker 2: long term for sure. You know he was the offensive 455 00:22:19,080 --> 00:22:21,520 Speaker 2: coordinator at Penn State when they had Saquon Barkley and 456 00:22:21,600 --> 00:22:24,159 Speaker 2: all those explosive offenses, you know, and then he's been 457 00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:26,119 Speaker 2: you know, Missipi State at college and then he went 458 00:22:26,160 --> 00:22:29,239 Speaker 2: to Oregon whatever. But like you are bullish long term, 459 00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:32,040 Speaker 2: especially on his system, he's a very smart offensive play caller. 460 00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:34,760 Speaker 2: They don't got it this year though, especially with like 461 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:38,320 Speaker 2: DJ Irons, their quarterback had been compromised. We'll have to 462 00:22:38,400 --> 00:22:40,440 Speaker 2: check on his status leading up to this game. But 463 00:22:41,400 --> 00:22:43,720 Speaker 2: you don't have any They have like two offensive playmakers, 464 00:22:43,800 --> 00:22:46,280 Speaker 2: Irons being one of them, their receiver be another one 465 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:50,880 Speaker 2: shockey Jack. But they're gonna be outgunned in this matchup. Again, 466 00:22:50,920 --> 00:22:53,240 Speaker 2: I'm showing about five points of line value on Liberty, 467 00:22:53,720 --> 00:22:56,639 Speaker 2: absolutely taking liberty. In fact, I already have a Liberty ticket. 468 00:22:57,440 --> 00:23:01,160 Speaker 1: Now, how about this one Louisiana versus the Louisiana Monroe 469 00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:05,840 Speaker 1: again the thor matchups, the games that you love are 470 00:23:05,960 --> 00:23:09,359 Speaker 1: not exactly the big time matchups, but there's a reason 471 00:23:09,440 --> 00:23:11,280 Speaker 1: for that. They're the games that you have an edge 472 00:23:11,280 --> 00:23:13,720 Speaker 1: in the market over because they're the ones that aren't 473 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:15,440 Speaker 1: going to be paid the most. Attention to the markets 474 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,520 Speaker 1: can be a little more efficient and in this one, 475 00:23:17,880 --> 00:23:22,360 Speaker 1: the Raging Cajun's best name in college football. In my opinion, 476 00:23:22,800 --> 00:23:25,240 Speaker 1: they are laying five and a half points on the 477 00:23:25,400 --> 00:23:26,359 Speaker 1: road versus Monroe. 478 00:23:27,320 --> 00:23:29,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's well, it sure is. And by the way, 479 00:23:29,880 --> 00:23:33,159 Speaker 2: I think it's I think it's twelve right on. I 480 00:23:33,240 --> 00:23:35,560 Speaker 2: think Louisiana's favored by twelve in this one. 481 00:23:35,960 --> 00:23:36,600 Speaker 1: Oh, I'm sorry. 482 00:23:36,680 --> 00:23:37,159 Speaker 2: Yep, you're right. 483 00:23:37,240 --> 00:23:38,080 Speaker 1: I was reading this spresh. 484 00:23:38,119 --> 00:23:38,399 Speaker 2: You't wrong. 485 00:23:38,440 --> 00:23:39,520 Speaker 1: They're favored by twelve. 486 00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 2: Yeah. Now, my line on this game is Louisiana minus 487 00:23:43,000 --> 00:23:46,800 Speaker 2: seventeen and a half. So I am showing theoretically five 488 00:23:46,840 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 2: and a half points a line value on Louisiana. But 489 00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,119 Speaker 2: I do want to caution people on a couple of 490 00:23:52,160 --> 00:23:56,399 Speaker 2: different things. Louisiana looked awful over the weekend. They had 491 00:23:56,400 --> 00:24:00,359 Speaker 2: a really bad loss. I'm trying to remember who they 492 00:24:00,400 --> 00:24:06,560 Speaker 2: were playing. Oh, they got upset to Rice. Rice beat 493 00:24:06,640 --> 00:24:08,879 Speaker 2: them by by twelve points. I knew it was a 494 00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,080 Speaker 2: really bad team. I was just blanket on who. But 495 00:24:11,840 --> 00:24:14,240 Speaker 2: in Louisiana, I mean, even outside of that, they have 496 00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:17,960 Speaker 2: not looked great this year. They lost Billy Napier over 497 00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 2: the offseason. Billy Napier took some of his players with 498 00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:22,639 Speaker 2: some of the you know, the ones that he wanted, 499 00:24:22,920 --> 00:24:25,480 Speaker 2: took with them to Florida. So it wasn't just losing 500 00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,959 Speaker 2: your coaching staff. They also lost some of their best players, 501 00:24:28,080 --> 00:24:31,360 Speaker 2: a couple of NFL kids, the guard et cetera. They're 502 00:24:31,480 --> 00:24:34,240 Speaker 2: down that they have a new coaching staff, but of 503 00:24:34,320 --> 00:24:37,000 Speaker 2: course they started way ahead of ul Monroe. I mean, like, 504 00:24:37,080 --> 00:24:39,760 Speaker 2: you know, Louisiana's been for the past several years, was 505 00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:43,240 Speaker 2: like the royalty of that conference, whereas Louisiana Monroe has 506 00:24:43,280 --> 00:24:45,359 Speaker 2: been at the bottom of it. Of course, But but 507 00:24:45,480 --> 00:24:48,960 Speaker 2: Louisiana Monroe is frisky this year. They had swapped out 508 00:24:49,000 --> 00:24:54,840 Speaker 2: their coordinators, got better ones. I mean, relatively speaking. I 509 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,160 Speaker 2: liked what I had seen of them, like against Texas, 510 00:24:57,520 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 2: you know, like some of those different games. Last week, 511 00:25:00,680 --> 00:25:04,040 Speaker 2: they got annihilated by Alabama, which you would expect. But 512 00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:07,359 Speaker 2: this is one of those where it's hard for me 513 00:25:07,400 --> 00:25:10,320 Speaker 2: and I'm gonna be staying away from it because my 514 00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:15,160 Speaker 2: system showing the value on Louisiana. I don't trust Louisiana though, 515 00:25:15,520 --> 00:25:18,439 Speaker 2: and I think that the you know, the underdog here 516 00:25:18,520 --> 00:25:21,480 Speaker 2: Monroe is a little bit better than people think. So 517 00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:24,520 Speaker 2: this one is going to be a purely informational game 518 00:25:24,600 --> 00:25:27,600 Speaker 2: for me. But I'm going to get valuable information from it, 519 00:25:27,880 --> 00:25:30,440 Speaker 2: because if Louisiana plays down again, they just become the 520 00:25:30,560 --> 00:25:32,960 Speaker 2: cell for the rest of the year. Monroe becomes a 521 00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:37,640 Speaker 2: buye and if you know, or if Louisiana covers this line, 522 00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:39,520 Speaker 2: then I got to rethink both of them. 523 00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:45,080 Speaker 1: The next game up here, Boise stateon you tap utepe, 524 00:25:45,640 --> 00:25:49,119 Speaker 1: UTEP is getting fifteen points here in this spot on 525 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:50,640 Speaker 1: the at home. 526 00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:56,040 Speaker 2: Yeah UTEPH speaking to teams that haven't look at One 527 00:25:56,320 --> 00:25:59,040 Speaker 2: of my favorite bets of last week was getting three 528 00:25:59,119 --> 00:26:01,560 Speaker 2: points with New mex to go at home against UTEPH 529 00:26:01,600 --> 00:26:05,359 Speaker 2: because this was another one where you sniff out like 530 00:26:05,560 --> 00:26:08,199 Speaker 2: a team that's sort of beneath the radar that has 531 00:26:08,320 --> 00:26:12,760 Speaker 2: quantifiably gone down several levels from over the offseason. UTEP 532 00:26:12,880 --> 00:26:16,119 Speaker 2: lost by far their best player, Jacob Cowing, the receiver, 533 00:26:16,720 --> 00:26:18,800 Speaker 2: super explosive, that kid's going to play in the NFL. 534 00:26:19,080 --> 00:26:22,880 Speaker 2: He had transferred to Arizona. It just neutered their entire offense. 535 00:26:23,320 --> 00:26:26,240 Speaker 2: Like before that, they had the explosive passing game to 536 00:26:26,400 --> 00:26:28,240 Speaker 2: go with at least trying to churn it out on 537 00:26:28,320 --> 00:26:30,679 Speaker 2: the ground. They didn't have anyone explosive there, but they 538 00:26:30,720 --> 00:26:33,400 Speaker 2: could get defenses to cheat up and then Cowing would 539 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:35,520 Speaker 2: steal their lunch money over the top. But now you 540 00:26:35,600 --> 00:26:38,520 Speaker 2: don't have that anymore with him gone. You can see 541 00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:41,200 Speaker 2: the way this is manifested. They have less room to run, 542 00:26:41,480 --> 00:26:43,680 Speaker 2: so the running backs are playing down. And then the 543 00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:47,720 Speaker 2: quarterback Gavin Hardison, who looked decent statistically last year playing 544 00:26:47,760 --> 00:26:50,640 Speaker 2: with Cowing, his numbers have gone way way down. He's 545 00:26:50,720 --> 00:26:53,920 Speaker 2: not accurate, he's not explosive on his own, he doesn't 546 00:26:53,920 --> 00:26:57,160 Speaker 2: improve his teammates. So UTEP has sort of descended back 547 00:26:57,200 --> 00:27:00,480 Speaker 2: to where they came from essentially, And in this game, 548 00:27:00,760 --> 00:27:04,240 Speaker 2: I think like this might be the last time the 549 00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,640 Speaker 2: UTEP gets extra credit for having made a bowl game 550 00:27:07,920 --> 00:27:11,320 Speaker 2: last year, because I happen to think the Boise State's 551 00:27:11,359 --> 00:27:14,080 Speaker 2: gonna come in there and clean their clocks. After that, 552 00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,239 Speaker 2: there will be no more value to be had. I'm 553 00:27:16,280 --> 00:27:19,400 Speaker 2: betting against UTAP. I think this is the last week 554 00:27:19,440 --> 00:27:21,600 Speaker 2: you can get it. My line in this game is 555 00:27:21,720 --> 00:27:26,800 Speaker 2: Boise State minus nineteen point four, liveline being fifteen. Boise 556 00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:28,840 Speaker 2: State was another ticket that I purchased today. 557 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 1: Now, how about this game? I know we're gonna have 558 00:27:32,160 --> 00:27:36,440 Speaker 1: plenty to talk about with it. Utah, the utes are 559 00:27:36,560 --> 00:27:40,159 Speaker 1: taken on Arizona State and Arizona State not in the 560 00:27:40,200 --> 00:27:43,200 Speaker 1: best spot right now. They're getting fifteen and a half points. 561 00:27:43,240 --> 00:27:45,959 Speaker 1: But you fill us in on everything going on over there. 562 00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:51,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, this was we had a wild day to day 563 00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:55,359 Speaker 2: when the line's open on at circa like this line 564 00:27:55,680 --> 00:27:57,840 Speaker 2: was like five and a half is what like when 565 00:27:58,480 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 2: the very first when it opened right, and so you know, 566 00:28:01,840 --> 00:28:03,399 Speaker 2: this was another one. I was waiting for it to 567 00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,639 Speaker 2: drop on my book because I was gonna hammer Utah 568 00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:08,719 Speaker 2: it was. It was too low, but it hadn't come 569 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:12,200 Speaker 2: out yet. Then the Herm Edwards news drops that Arizona 570 00:28:12,280 --> 00:28:15,680 Speaker 2: State has fired Herm Edwards. They promoted a running back 571 00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,600 Speaker 2: coach I've never heard of, even though they had you 572 00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:20,760 Speaker 2: would think more deserving guys on the staff based on 573 00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 2: their resumes. But I talked to someone earlier that told 574 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,280 Speaker 2: me that they think Arizona State did that so they 575 00:28:26,320 --> 00:28:28,520 Speaker 2: could easily slop off the running back coach after the 576 00:28:28,600 --> 00:28:31,200 Speaker 2: year without there being a lot of talk during the season, 577 00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:33,679 Speaker 2: you know, sort of like with Nebraska where people are like, well, 578 00:28:33,720 --> 00:28:36,320 Speaker 2: at least before they played Alklahoma, but where people were like, oh, 579 00:28:36,400 --> 00:28:38,840 Speaker 2: CoA Mickey Joseph get the job long term YadA YadA, 580 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:42,680 Speaker 2: that Arizona State's just skirting that by installing someone that 581 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,000 Speaker 2: has no chance of getting the job long term. That's 582 00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,880 Speaker 2: what was going on there. When the line opened again, 583 00:28:49,280 --> 00:28:52,080 Speaker 2: it was Utah minus fifteen and a half. So between 584 00:28:52,160 --> 00:28:54,640 Speaker 2: the early money that had gone in on Utah and 585 00:28:54,720 --> 00:28:57,760 Speaker 2: then between that news and then they reopen it, they 586 00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:02,440 Speaker 2: opened ten points higher, like a crazy, crazy jump. My 587 00:29:02,600 --> 00:29:07,880 Speaker 2: line on this game was it's lower than that. I 588 00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:11,680 Speaker 2: Utah minus eleven point two, which is why anything in 589 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 2: the single did even before the HERM news, Like, I 590 00:29:14,760 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 2: was really excited to bet on Utah, but after the 591 00:29:17,480 --> 00:29:20,000 Speaker 2: HERM news, with this coming out at fifteen and a half, 592 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,360 Speaker 2: I can't bet on Utah with it with the line 593 00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:28,080 Speaker 2: where it is now, can So then the question becomes, 594 00:29:28,160 --> 00:29:31,200 Speaker 2: can you consider a bet on Arizona State under that 595 00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:33,320 Speaker 2: idea of the dead cat bounce that we were talking 596 00:29:33,360 --> 00:29:36,000 Speaker 2: about last week? You know, with Visa VI Nebraska and 597 00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:40,320 Speaker 2: Scott Friest. I didn't end up betting on Nebraska this 598 00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 2: past weekend, and thank god I did, and I did 599 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,600 Speaker 2: bet on the under of that game and got exceedingly 600 00:29:45,720 --> 00:29:48,600 Speaker 2: lucky to win it because Oklahoma is up by so 601 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 2: much and you know after halftime that they were yanking 602 00:29:51,200 --> 00:29:54,480 Speaker 2: all their starters and then Nebraska couldn't do anything anyway. 603 00:29:54,560 --> 00:29:56,120 Speaker 2: So the under did end up getting there. 604 00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:59,400 Speaker 1: But I had that same under. My friend told me, yes, 605 00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:01,920 Speaker 1: that under, and we looked in the third quarter, I'm like, 606 00:30:02,040 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 1: what is going on here? Thank god they took the 607 00:30:05,120 --> 00:30:06,000 Speaker 1: foot off the gas. 608 00:30:06,480 --> 00:30:09,080 Speaker 2: It was absolutely fabulous. Yeah, Nebraska couldn't get out of 609 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,440 Speaker 2: its own way on offense, and then Oklahoma was just like, 610 00:30:11,600 --> 00:30:14,600 Speaker 2: this is getting We're actually embarrassed for you guys. So 611 00:30:14,680 --> 00:30:16,280 Speaker 2: we're just gonna put in all of our backups. We're 612 00:30:16,280 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 2: just gonna run up the middle every single play. So 613 00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,400 Speaker 2: I was loving it. That was, you know, stealing a 614 00:30:21,520 --> 00:30:24,720 Speaker 2: victory from the Jaza defeat. But you know what you 615 00:30:24,840 --> 00:30:27,200 Speaker 2: didn't see Visa VI the side of that game was 616 00:30:27,320 --> 00:30:30,600 Speaker 2: that dead camp bounce of Nebraska. They their effort was 617 00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:33,320 Speaker 2: even worse than it had been before, like like like 618 00:30:33,640 --> 00:30:36,600 Speaker 2: just sloughing off, like you know, grabbing the Oklahoma guy 619 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:39,120 Speaker 2: but not being able to wrap up that all kinds 620 00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:43,040 Speaker 2: of tackling issues that the offense both scheme and then 621 00:30:43,080 --> 00:30:46,760 Speaker 2: also just you know executing the plays they could. Nebraska 622 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:49,440 Speaker 2: couldn't do anything, Will you get a better effort this 623 00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:52,960 Speaker 2: time from Arizona State after having moved moved on from HERM. 624 00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:55,960 Speaker 2: I'm not sure about that, you know. And again I 625 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,760 Speaker 2: don't know anything about this head coach. I will be 626 00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:00,520 Speaker 2: looking into this game a lot, a lot more this 627 00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:04,320 Speaker 2: week though, for these reasons, because I now think because 628 00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:07,400 Speaker 2: of the overreaction to that news, with how high that 629 00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:11,320 Speaker 2: line jumped up after it reopened, it's objectively too many 630 00:31:11,400 --> 00:31:14,000 Speaker 2: points towards Utah unless you get a no show of 631 00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,720 Speaker 2: a performance by Arizona State like Nebraska did last week. 632 00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:19,440 Speaker 2: So we got to read into the psychology on the 633 00:31:19,480 --> 00:31:22,280 Speaker 2: Arizona State side. See if this, you know, decide if 634 00:31:22,320 --> 00:31:23,960 Speaker 2: we think this team is going to come out, put 635 00:31:24,000 --> 00:31:26,320 Speaker 2: out a put up a spirited effort without HERM this 636 00:31:26,440 --> 00:31:29,040 Speaker 2: coming week, maybe you get value on them. I can't 637 00:31:29,080 --> 00:31:31,120 Speaker 2: pat on the youths though, with how how high this 638 00:31:31,240 --> 00:31:31,880 Speaker 2: line has gotten. 639 00:31:32,480 --> 00:31:35,719 Speaker 1: Two more games here for us, and again big matchups here. 640 00:31:35,840 --> 00:31:40,320 Speaker 1: Mississippi State is at home against Bowling Green. They are 641 00:31:40,520 --> 00:31:44,320 Speaker 1: laying twenty nine points. Is this a good enough number? 642 00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,000 Speaker 2: Yeah? I think this one's a bit short too, And 643 00:31:48,120 --> 00:31:50,160 Speaker 2: I think the reason that it's short, well, I mean, 644 00:31:50,760 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 2: you got it on both sides. Missippi State, who had 645 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:56,760 Speaker 2: looked really good in the first couple of games on 646 00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:59,480 Speaker 2: Saturday night, they go to Baton Rouge and they looked 647 00:31:59,560 --> 00:32:01,880 Speaker 2: so good that they were actually favored in that spot. 648 00:32:02,560 --> 00:32:05,240 Speaker 2: LSU was one of my top ten bets of last 649 00:32:05,280 --> 00:32:08,240 Speaker 2: week just because it the talent, you know, it seemed 650 00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,000 Speaker 2: like a perception against reality thing where LSU should have 651 00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,640 Speaker 2: been the favorite team, and indeed they defended their home term, 652 00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:16,560 Speaker 2: ended up beating Missipi State by like fifteen points or 653 00:32:16,600 --> 00:32:19,840 Speaker 2: something like that. Meanwhile, on the other side, Bowling Green 654 00:32:19,960 --> 00:32:23,400 Speaker 2: cott Marshall in the all time situational spot that you 655 00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:25,440 Speaker 2: want to catch some one where Marshall had come in 656 00:32:25,600 --> 00:32:28,280 Speaker 2: off of the upset at Notre Dame and now they 657 00:32:28,360 --> 00:32:30,360 Speaker 2: had to turn around and play this Bowling Green team. 658 00:32:30,720 --> 00:32:33,280 Speaker 2: They clearly overlooked them. It clearly came out, you know, 659 00:32:33,440 --> 00:32:35,920 Speaker 2: flat basically, and then Bowling Green ends a pull in 660 00:32:35,960 --> 00:32:38,400 Speaker 2: that one out. I think now because of that on 661 00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:42,240 Speaker 2: both sides of this thing, it's pulling it away from reality. 662 00:32:42,600 --> 00:32:46,040 Speaker 2: The perception is to create sort of a window of value. 663 00:32:47,560 --> 00:32:49,360 Speaker 2: You mentioned that the line of this game is twenty 664 00:32:49,440 --> 00:32:53,440 Speaker 2: nine live. My line on is Mississippi State minus thirty 665 00:32:53,480 --> 00:32:56,440 Speaker 2: three point two. So until this thing gets to thirty 666 00:32:56,520 --> 00:32:59,840 Speaker 2: one or above, I think you can absolutely justify buying 667 00:32:59,880 --> 00:33:03,520 Speaker 2: a ticket on Mississippi State. You know, once it gets 668 00:33:03,560 --> 00:33:06,200 Speaker 2: over that, I think it's probably just a straight pass. 669 00:33:06,680 --> 00:33:08,880 Speaker 2: Definitely do not bet on Bowling Green though, coming off 670 00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:12,000 Speaker 2: that upset win, because they will assuredly not look as 671 00:33:12,040 --> 00:33:14,640 Speaker 2: good heading into a pissed off Mississippi State team. 672 00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:18,240 Speaker 1: Now, last one up here, how about Tulsa headed down 673 00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:21,680 Speaker 1: to play Ole Miss Ole Miss laying nineteen and a 674 00:33:21,720 --> 00:33:25,520 Speaker 1: half points in this one. And I don't hate Tulsa. 675 00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:28,720 Speaker 1: I actually debated taking their taking their win total over, 676 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:32,320 Speaker 1: but what nineteen and a half points? 677 00:33:32,360 --> 00:33:36,680 Speaker 2: That feels light? It is like, yeah, the markets is 678 00:33:36,800 --> 00:33:39,480 Speaker 2: still a bullish on Tulsa. And I don't really get 679 00:33:39,560 --> 00:33:42,479 Speaker 2: why they lost to Wyoming in the opener. They barely 680 00:33:42,560 --> 00:33:45,520 Speaker 2: beat Northern Illinois at the game after that. Northern Illinois 681 00:33:45,560 --> 00:33:47,720 Speaker 2: is not good this year. And then last week Tulsa 682 00:33:47,760 --> 00:33:50,840 Speaker 2: blew out n FCS team Ole Miss. I was I 683 00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,520 Speaker 2: was waiting on Old Miss to see which Old Miss 684 00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:56,400 Speaker 2: team are we getting, you know, like or what are 685 00:33:56,440 --> 00:33:58,840 Speaker 2: they going to be? Right? Like? They had lost so 686 00:33:58,920 --> 00:34:01,920 Speaker 2: much in the offseason, but Lane Kiffin had signed what 687 00:34:02,120 --> 00:34:04,400 Speaker 2: the metrics say was the second best transfer portal class. 688 00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:06,840 Speaker 2: The only one that was better was USC, which is 689 00:34:07,440 --> 00:34:10,120 Speaker 2: kind of cheating because Lincoln Riley just took some of 690 00:34:10,160 --> 00:34:13,640 Speaker 2: the players he wanted from Oklahoma with him. But you 691 00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:15,920 Speaker 2: didn't know what this Mississippi team was going to look 692 00:34:16,040 --> 00:34:17,960 Speaker 2: like because of that. They the new quarterback, they had 693 00:34:18,000 --> 00:34:20,480 Speaker 2: new running back room, they had new receivers there, the 694 00:34:20,640 --> 00:34:23,279 Speaker 2: new tight end that they took from USC. You know, 695 00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:25,799 Speaker 2: a whole bunch like all over the place. Last week 696 00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:28,719 Speaker 2: was finally like, okay, this is what this team could be, 697 00:34:30,480 --> 00:34:33,400 Speaker 2: you know, in terms of the performance. So I'm starting 698 00:34:33,400 --> 00:34:35,000 Speaker 2: to get a little bit more bullish on them. They 699 00:34:35,800 --> 00:34:38,440 Speaker 2: granted it's Georgia Tech, but they went to Atlanta and 700 00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:42,000 Speaker 2: beat them forty two to nothing, way more impressive looking. 701 00:34:42,040 --> 00:34:44,560 Speaker 2: For instance, in the Clemson game, right like, they they 702 00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:47,520 Speaker 2: held the Georgia Tech offense down way more on Clemson 703 00:34:47,560 --> 00:34:49,480 Speaker 2: that and they would do it, of course a lot 704 00:34:49,560 --> 00:34:52,360 Speaker 2: more on offense. I do think this game that the 705 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:54,640 Speaker 2: line is a little bit light. My line on it 706 00:34:54,920 --> 00:34:57,799 Speaker 2: is Ole miss minus twenty three point seven. So I'm 707 00:34:57,800 --> 00:35:00,880 Speaker 2: showing about for you know, little over four points of 708 00:35:00,920 --> 00:35:03,680 Speaker 2: line value on the Rebels, and I think now you 709 00:35:03,760 --> 00:35:06,440 Speaker 2: can be a little bit more comfortable backing the Rebels 710 00:35:06,880 --> 00:35:10,239 Speaker 2: after you saw them just absolutely slap around Georgia Tech 711 00:35:10,280 --> 00:35:12,680 Speaker 2: as opposed to they had sort of slept walk through 712 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,200 Speaker 2: the win over Troy, you know, for instance, earlier in 713 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,360 Speaker 2: the season. But now you got and they also have 714 00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:19,560 Speaker 2: health in the quarterback room, you know, and and also 715 00:35:19,840 --> 00:35:22,800 Speaker 2: more clarity there with the direction that they want to 716 00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:25,160 Speaker 2: go going forward. So I would back the Rebels in 717 00:35:25,200 --> 00:35:25,480 Speaker 2: that one. 718 00:35:26,400 --> 00:35:29,200 Speaker 1: Well, for that is going to do it for us here. Actually, 719 00:35:29,200 --> 00:35:30,680 Speaker 1: I'm gonna open up the floor to you real quick. 720 00:35:30,760 --> 00:35:32,200 Speaker 1: Is there any game that we've missed that you want 721 00:35:32,239 --> 00:35:34,400 Speaker 1: to get a quick word in before we bounce? 722 00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,600 Speaker 2: Well, I'm I'm looking over my my my bets really 723 00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:40,280 Speaker 2: quick that I had made earlier that we didn't talk about. 724 00:35:41,000 --> 00:35:45,239 Speaker 2: I took Coastal Carolina minus two and a half. I 725 00:35:45,320 --> 00:35:47,880 Speaker 2: took Boise State minus oh we talked about the Boise 726 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:52,239 Speaker 2: State one Oregon minus six. That that's an interesting thing, 727 00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:54,600 Speaker 2: you know, because it's a it's another one of those 728 00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:58,319 Speaker 2: where it's a perception against reality. Washington State, you see 729 00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:01,440 Speaker 2: them that you know they upset Wasisconsin last week. They 730 00:36:01,520 --> 00:36:05,000 Speaker 2: blew out a really crappy Colorado State team. They're undefeated, 731 00:36:05,400 --> 00:36:09,000 Speaker 2: right whereas Oregon. Everybody watched. Oregon just absolutely gets slapped 732 00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,319 Speaker 2: around by Georgia and they got super duper downgraded by 733 00:36:12,400 --> 00:36:15,400 Speaker 2: the market, which is why I was really interested to 734 00:36:15,480 --> 00:36:20,040 Speaker 2: watch Oregon's last game on Saturday, put you know, again 735 00:36:20,160 --> 00:36:23,880 Speaker 2: playing a legitimate opponent, and they looked absolutely awesome in 736 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:27,200 Speaker 2: annihilating Byu, beating them forty one to twenty. Now Byu 737 00:36:27,360 --> 00:36:30,000 Speaker 2: was out both their starting receivers in that game, Gunner 738 00:36:30,360 --> 00:36:33,840 Speaker 2: Romney and then Puka Nakua, so you do have to 739 00:36:33,880 --> 00:36:36,960 Speaker 2: add that context in. But Oregon looked happ I'm sorry 740 00:36:37,040 --> 00:36:40,080 Speaker 2: Byu looked tapless on offense going up against Oregon's defense. 741 00:36:40,760 --> 00:36:43,320 Speaker 2: I think you gotta put Oregon back where maybe you 742 00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,760 Speaker 2: thought they were gonna be sort of heading into this season, 743 00:36:46,280 --> 00:36:49,160 Speaker 2: and not downgrade them as much for getting slapped around 744 00:36:49,200 --> 00:36:52,000 Speaker 2: by Georgia. Everyone's gonna get slapped around by Georgia until 745 00:36:52,040 --> 00:36:54,279 Speaker 2: Georgia plays in the SEC title game. Just the way 746 00:36:54,320 --> 00:36:56,440 Speaker 2: it's going, they're gonna go undfeed in the regular season, 747 00:36:56,719 --> 00:36:59,760 Speaker 2: so you can't you know, all season, you can't just downgrade, 748 00:37:00,360 --> 00:37:02,520 Speaker 2: and it seems like that's what the market is still 749 00:37:02,640 --> 00:37:05,000 Speaker 2: kind of doing that they're not giving them the credit 750 00:37:05,120 --> 00:37:07,680 Speaker 2: for what they saw on Saturday blowing out what is 751 00:37:08,040 --> 00:37:11,480 Speaker 2: really solid BYU team b YU the week before without 752 00:37:11,520 --> 00:37:14,920 Speaker 2: both those receivers as well beat Baylor and Baylor as 753 00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:17,680 Speaker 2: an okay shot to win the Big Twelve that they 754 00:37:17,719 --> 00:37:20,120 Speaker 2: were one of the three major players for the Big 755 00:37:20,160 --> 00:37:23,239 Speaker 2: Twelve title. So that one, I like, I think that 756 00:37:23,400 --> 00:37:28,880 Speaker 2: line is too low. Oregon going to going to the 757 00:37:28,960 --> 00:37:31,520 Speaker 2: Polouse and play in Washington State. I got that line 758 00:37:31,560 --> 00:37:35,040 Speaker 2: at six live. You know, if it's still around there 759 00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:38,000 Speaker 2: or it's still under seven, I think you can absolutely 760 00:37:39,000 --> 00:37:41,439 Speaker 2: bet on the Ducks with confidence in that one because 761 00:37:41,480 --> 00:37:42,440 Speaker 2: that line's just too low. 762 00:37:43,680 --> 00:37:45,520 Speaker 1: All right, Well, now that's going to do it for 763 00:37:45,800 --> 00:37:48,360 Speaker 1: us here for if people want to catch you and 764 00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,520 Speaker 1: all of the great work you're doing, of course they're 765 00:37:50,560 --> 00:37:52,439 Speaker 1: going to be able to check out the Wednesday show 766 00:37:52,520 --> 00:37:56,760 Speaker 1: with you and Scott Bogman, and don't forget Saturday morning 767 00:37:56,880 --> 00:38:00,600 Speaker 1: before games kickoff, bright and early, you and Mike Farrell 768 00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:03,120 Speaker 1: are given out your best bets and plays for the 769 00:38:03,239 --> 00:38:06,799 Speaker 1: day of college football action. But right now and where 770 00:38:06,880 --> 00:38:07,719 Speaker 1: else can they find you. 771 00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:10,200 Speaker 2: You can find me on Twitter at thor Ku, and 772 00:38:10,280 --> 00:38:12,440 Speaker 2: you can find my written work at Betting Pros. And 773 00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:14,840 Speaker 2: you know, we we have the Power Rankings out tomorrow 774 00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:16,719 Speaker 2: on Monday or maybe today if you're listening to this 775 00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:19,880 Speaker 2: on a Monday, have the Power Rankings out. Have what 776 00:38:20,040 --> 00:38:22,160 Speaker 2: is going to be this week a pack column full 777 00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:26,440 Speaker 2: of notes. Usually it's mostly focusing on injuries that are 778 00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:29,200 Speaker 2: tangibly affecting a line one way or the other. This 779 00:38:29,320 --> 00:38:31,000 Speaker 2: week we are also going to have a series of 780 00:38:31,080 --> 00:38:34,399 Speaker 2: coaching notes, you know, between Arizona State, between Nebraska Fire 781 00:38:34,440 --> 00:38:37,360 Speaker 2: and their defensive coordinator. Well, Sunday's not done yet, so 782 00:38:37,360 --> 00:38:39,840 Speaker 2: we'll see if there's any more coach firings. But you know, 783 00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:43,239 Speaker 2: definitely check that out because you know this outside news, 784 00:38:43,520 --> 00:38:45,439 Speaker 2: it's very hard to keep track of the entire college 785 00:38:45,440 --> 00:38:48,320 Speaker 2: football universe, but it all affects the spread in a 786 00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:51,200 Speaker 2: way that we could end up potentially profiting from. And 787 00:38:51,280 --> 00:38:53,719 Speaker 2: then of course my my Thursday Best Beat column as well, 788 00:38:53,800 --> 00:38:54,520 Speaker 2: So check that out. 789 00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:57,759 Speaker 1: All right, guys, that's going to do it for us 790 00:38:57,920 --> 00:39:03,080 Speaker 1: here for thorn Icetromola saying good luck this week, get 791 00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:06,200 Speaker 1: those bets in and of course let's cash some tickets. 792 00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:07,400 Speaker 1: We'll see you next time, folks,