1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,320 Speaker 1: They keep telling you that stock's art record highs, but 2 00:00:02,800 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: that's the illusion. In reality, they're down eighty four percent. Now, 3 00:00:06,760 --> 00:00:10,200 Speaker 1: I know that sounds impossible, that's exactly what happens when 4 00:00:10,200 --> 00:00:13,800 Speaker 1: the system starts breaking, because what you're seeing isn't real growth. 5 00:00:14,000 --> 00:00:16,880 Speaker 1: It's just the dollar melting. The numbers go up, but 6 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:20,599 Speaker 1: your purchasing power goes down. And this exact pattern, the 7 00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:24,880 Speaker 1: same signature, has shown up before every major currency collapse 8 00:00:24,960 --> 00:00:28,600 Speaker 1: in history. Rome sawed wymar Germany saw it, Argentines are 9 00:00:28,600 --> 00:00:31,640 Speaker 1: living through it right now, and we're seeing it again today, 10 00:00:31,680 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 1: only this time it's global. 11 00:00:33,800 --> 00:00:33,959 Speaker 2: Now. 12 00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:36,400 Speaker 1: Most people they don't realize it yet because they're still 13 00:00:36,440 --> 00:00:39,519 Speaker 1: measuring their wealth in the wrong yard stick. But when 14 00:00:39,560 --> 00:00:42,400 Speaker 1: you change the unit of account, when you measure in 15 00:00:42,479 --> 00:00:45,600 Speaker 1: real money, the truth jumps off the page. And that's 16 00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:47,680 Speaker 1: what we're going to break down in this video. I'm 17 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:50,680 Speaker 1: going to show you how stocks, homes, and even your 18 00:00:50,720 --> 00:00:53,519 Speaker 1: savings have already collapsed in real terms, and what this 19 00:00:53,640 --> 00:00:56,480 Speaker 1: means for the next stage of the global financial system. 20 00:00:56,600 --> 00:00:58,000 Speaker 2: Now, I've built and I've sold. 21 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:01,600 Speaker 1: Multiple tech companies. I'm a partner a lead bitcoin venture fund. 22 00:01:01,760 --> 00:01:04,840 Speaker 1: I've been studying and teaching macroeconomics for a decade, and 23 00:01:04,920 --> 00:01:07,959 Speaker 1: I'm telling you this data is real. By the end 24 00:01:08,000 --> 00:01:10,080 Speaker 1: of this video, you're going to see exactly why the 25 00:01:10,120 --> 00:01:14,200 Speaker 1: markets look like they're soaring, but in reality, they're already collapsing, 26 00:01:14,560 --> 00:01:18,280 Speaker 1: and more specifically, what that means for every dollar, every stock. 27 00:01:18,040 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 2: And home that you own. So let's go all right, 28 00:01:21,760 --> 00:01:23,520 Speaker 2: you've probably seen it everywhere lately. 29 00:01:23,600 --> 00:01:23,800 Speaker 1: Right. 30 00:01:24,040 --> 00:01:25,240 Speaker 2: Stocks are at record. 31 00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:28,559 Speaker 1: Highs, the economy is super strong, the wealth effect is back. 32 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:31,520 Speaker 1: You got CNBC, you got Bloomberg, you got Reuters. They're 33 00:01:31,520 --> 00:01:34,840 Speaker 1: all running victory laps. Now on the surface, they're all right. 34 00:01:35,319 --> 00:01:37,960 Speaker 1: If you look at the numbers in dollars, it's pretty 35 00:01:37,959 --> 00:01:38,559 Speaker 1: hard to argue. 36 00:01:38,640 --> 00:01:38,840 Speaker 2: Right. 37 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,080 Speaker 1: Since early twenty twenty, the S and P five hundred 38 00:01:42,120 --> 00:01:45,319 Speaker 1: has climbed from around thirty two hundred points to nearly 39 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:48,920 Speaker 1: sixty nine hundred today. That's more than one hundred percent 40 00:01:48,960 --> 00:01:52,280 Speaker 1: gain in just five years. Home prices they're doing pretty 41 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:54,960 Speaker 1: good too, They're up about fifty percent over the same 42 00:01:55,080 --> 00:01:58,560 Speaker 1: time period according to case Shiller Index. So yeah, in 43 00:01:58,680 --> 00:02:01,840 Speaker 1: dollar terms, it looks like a golden age for investors, right, 44 00:02:01,880 --> 00:02:02,640 Speaker 1: everyone's richer. 45 00:02:03,200 --> 00:02:04,240 Speaker 2: But here's the problem. 46 00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 1: If that were really true, why doesn't it feel like it, 47 00:02:07,640 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 1: Because while your four one K may look bigger on paper, 48 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 1: everything you actually need, you know, like food, insurance, housing, 49 00:02:14,560 --> 00:02:16,600 Speaker 1: it's eating away at it faster than ever. 50 00:02:16,840 --> 00:02:17,000 Speaker 2: Right. 51 00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:18,880 Speaker 1: You feel it every time you fill up at the 52 00:02:18,919 --> 00:02:22,000 Speaker 1: gas pump, every time you buy groceries. And that's not 53 00:02:22,160 --> 00:02:23,880 Speaker 1: just in your head, it's. 54 00:02:23,680 --> 00:02:24,720 Speaker 2: Baked into the data. 55 00:02:24,880 --> 00:02:28,160 Speaker 1: Now, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the BLS, they show 56 00:02:28,280 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 1: real wages, that's that are wages that are just for inflation. 57 00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:34,760 Speaker 1: They've barely moved in the last five years. They're up 58 00:02:34,800 --> 00:02:37,280 Speaker 1: about one percent year over a year. But the cost 59 00:02:37,320 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: of living, it's exploded. 60 00:02:39,280 --> 00:02:40,960 Speaker 2: So the boom. 61 00:02:40,919 --> 00:02:43,800 Speaker 1: That you're seeing, the boom in the financial markets, is 62 00:02:43,840 --> 00:02:45,760 Speaker 1: not matching your daily reality. 63 00:02:46,040 --> 00:02:46,640 Speaker 2: So what is it? 64 00:02:46,919 --> 00:02:49,520 Speaker 1: Something's off right, And of course you can't help but 65 00:02:49,560 --> 00:02:53,240 Speaker 1: notice that this is all disconnected. Right. The headlines tell 66 00:02:53,240 --> 00:02:56,840 Speaker 1: you the economies never been stronger, but somehow everyone you 67 00:02:57,000 --> 00:03:00,000 Speaker 1: know is struggling to keep up. People are working harder, 68 00:03:00,200 --> 00:03:03,800 Speaker 1: earning more dollars, yet they're feeling poor. Right, that's not 69 00:03:03,880 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 1: just a feeling, it's a signal. Because the last time 70 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,400 Speaker 1: we saw this kind of mismatch between nominal wealth and 71 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 1: the real living standards when the chart that boom, but 72 00:03:13,080 --> 00:03:16,160 Speaker 1: life felt more like a bust. That was during every 73 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:19,880 Speaker 1: major currency shift in history. So the question that we 74 00:03:19,960 --> 00:03:23,240 Speaker 1: need to ask isn't our stocks at record highs? The 75 00:03:23,400 --> 00:03:27,560 Speaker 1: right question is record highs measured in what? Because when 76 00:03:27,560 --> 00:03:30,160 Speaker 1: you change what you measure in, when you stop assuming 77 00:03:30,160 --> 00:03:34,000 Speaker 1: the dollar stable, that entire story looks very different. And 78 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:36,800 Speaker 1: I want to show you what's really happening behind those 79 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,880 Speaker 1: record highs and why the same signature is showing up 80 00:03:39,880 --> 00:03:44,080 Speaker 1: today that we've seen before every major currency collapse in history. 81 00:03:44,160 --> 00:03:47,200 Speaker 1: All Right, you know, everything we measure right, our income, 82 00:03:47,400 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 1: our investments, the prices of our goods that we buy, 83 00:03:50,200 --> 00:03:53,280 Speaker 1: it all comes down to one simple thing. It's the 84 00:03:53,400 --> 00:03:55,920 Speaker 1: yard stick, the measuring stick, the ruler that we use, 85 00:03:56,440 --> 00:03:57,720 Speaker 1: and that yard stick. 86 00:03:57,760 --> 00:03:58,320 Speaker 2: Is the dollar. 87 00:03:58,800 --> 00:04:02,840 Speaker 1: Now, the Federal Reserve finds money as having three basic jobs. 88 00:04:03,200 --> 00:04:06,640 Speaker 1: A medium of exchange, a store of value, and a 89 00:04:06,840 --> 00:04:10,280 Speaker 1: unit of account or the way that we measure value 90 00:04:10,320 --> 00:04:14,480 Speaker 1: in economic transactions. But that measurement only works if the yard. 91 00:04:14,240 --> 00:04:16,560 Speaker 2: Stick itself stays stable. 92 00:04:17,120 --> 00:04:20,640 Speaker 1: If the inch changes every day, the blueprint all falls apart. 93 00:04:20,839 --> 00:04:23,800 Speaker 1: Since twenty twenty, the inch the measuring stick. It's been 94 00:04:23,839 --> 00:04:27,360 Speaker 1: dhrinking really fast. According to data from the Saint Louis 95 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:30,880 Speaker 1: FED the US money supply, the M two grew almost 96 00:04:31,040 --> 00:04:34,920 Speaker 1: twenty seven percent year over year in February of twenty 97 00:04:34,960 --> 00:04:39,719 Speaker 1: twenty one. That's the fastest monetary expansion in monetary records. Now, 98 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,520 Speaker 1: to put that into perspective, it's bigger than anything we 99 00:04:42,520 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: saw in the nineteen seventies inflation. It's bigger than the 100 00:04:45,240 --> 00:04:47,000 Speaker 1: QB programs of two thousand and eight. 101 00:04:47,640 --> 00:04:49,520 Speaker 2: Think of it like this. If I owned a. 102 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:52,040 Speaker 1: Company worth, say a million dollars, and I asked you 103 00:04:52,080 --> 00:04:54,640 Speaker 1: to invest, let's say invest one hundred thousand, and I'll 104 00:04:54,640 --> 00:04:56,839 Speaker 1: give you ten percent ownership, right, And then I grew 105 00:04:56,880 --> 00:05:00,640 Speaker 1: the business from one million to ten million dollars, your 106 00:05:00,680 --> 00:05:03,120 Speaker 1: ten percent ownership would have grown from one hundred thousand 107 00:05:03,160 --> 00:05:07,200 Speaker 1: dollars to now being worth a million dollars. It's awesome, right, Well, 108 00:05:07,200 --> 00:05:09,400 Speaker 1: it is unless I diluted you. 109 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:09,839 Speaker 2: Right. 110 00:05:10,000 --> 00:05:12,840 Speaker 1: If I went and raised more money and I increased 111 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,320 Speaker 1: the amount of shares. This happens all the time, by 112 00:05:15,320 --> 00:05:18,200 Speaker 1: the way, when companies are growing, they're raising money, right. 113 00:05:18,560 --> 00:05:21,600 Speaker 2: This is exactly what's happening to you when you measure 114 00:05:21,640 --> 00:05:22,600 Speaker 2: things in dollars. 115 00:05:22,800 --> 00:05:25,320 Speaker 1: And of course, when you create that much new money 116 00:05:25,560 --> 00:05:28,680 Speaker 1: that quickly, you don't get more real wealth, You just 117 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:32,840 Speaker 1: get more units chasing the same goods and services. Now 118 00:05:32,839 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 1: we can see it right in the data, the Consumer 119 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:39,200 Speaker 1: Price Index, the CPI, how the government tracks prices. I 120 00:05:39,279 --> 00:05:41,839 Speaker 1: like to call it CPI, but going off of their data, 121 00:05:41,920 --> 00:05:44,760 Speaker 1: it shows that it's climbed roughly twenty five to thirty 122 00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:49,160 Speaker 1: percent just since twenty twenty. That means the same grocery basket, 123 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:52,760 Speaker 1: the same rent payment that cost one hundred dollars five 124 00:05:52,839 --> 00:05:55,560 Speaker 1: years ago now costs about one hundred and thirty dollars. 125 00:05:56,040 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: That's the yardstick. 126 00:05:57,360 --> 00:05:58,080 Speaker 2: It's shrinking. 127 00:05:58,480 --> 00:06:01,359 Speaker 1: So when the media says stack hit new highs or 128 00:06:02,000 --> 00:06:04,839 Speaker 1: home prices keep going up, they're soaring, what they're really 129 00:06:04,880 --> 00:06:09,520 Speaker 1: describing is the denominator breaking down. The measuring stick is 130 00:06:09,560 --> 00:06:12,320 Speaker 1: getting shorter, so then everything that you measure with it 131 00:06:12,360 --> 00:06:16,400 Speaker 1: looks taller. History's full of examples of this right, and 132 00:06:16,520 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 1: the examples of what happens next. In ancient Rome, the 133 00:06:20,279 --> 00:06:23,440 Speaker 1: silver content in their coins dropped from nearly one hundred 134 00:06:23,440 --> 00:06:26,560 Speaker 1: percent silver to less than twenty percent silver as the 135 00:06:26,600 --> 00:06:30,160 Speaker 1: empire debased its currency to pay its debts. Now, people 136 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:31,599 Speaker 1: back then thought the same thing. 137 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 2: They thought they were getting richer. 138 00:06:33,160 --> 00:06:35,800 Speaker 1: They thought they had more coins in their hands, but 139 00:06:35,839 --> 00:06:39,680 Speaker 1: the coins themselves were worth less and less and less. 140 00:06:39,920 --> 00:06:46,279 Speaker 1: During Wymar's Germany hyperinflation, stock prices nominal wages also exploded higher, 141 00:06:46,640 --> 00:06:51,080 Speaker 1: but in real purchasing power they collapsed. People carried wheelbarrows 142 00:06:51,080 --> 00:06:54,640 Speaker 1: of marks just to buy bread, while charts on paper 143 00:06:54,800 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 1: showed that they were growing, showed they were getting rich. 144 00:06:58,120 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 1: And today you can see the same dynamic in Argentina. 145 00:07:00,960 --> 00:07:05,200 Speaker 1: Last year inflation ran over two hundred percent, prices tripled, 146 00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:09,400 Speaker 1: salaries double, and yet somehow everybody still ends up poor. 147 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:13,240 Speaker 1: That's what a falling yardstick looks like in real time. 148 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:16,120 Speaker 1: So when you see record high markets in dollars but 149 00:07:16,320 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: stagnant wages and crushing costs of living, it's not a paradox. 150 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 2: It's the textbook example. 151 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,840 Speaker 1: It's the sign of a yardstick that's losing integrity. So 152 00:07:25,880 --> 00:07:28,760 Speaker 1: the question now isn't whether the dollar is weakened. Right 153 00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:30,920 Speaker 1: the data already tells is that I already proved that out. 154 00:07:31,360 --> 00:07:34,160 Speaker 1: The real question is what happens when you start measuring 155 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:36,080 Speaker 1: in something that isn't melting? 156 00:07:36,480 --> 00:07:37,679 Speaker 2: What happens if we get. 157 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:42,240 Speaker 1: Another yard stick. All right, that's where the illusion completely breaks. Now, 158 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:44,680 Speaker 1: before we get into that, have you ever wondered how 159 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:47,960 Speaker 1: the US can run trillion dollar deficits every single year, 160 00:07:48,360 --> 00:07:51,600 Speaker 1: you know, spend more than it earns, print money like crazy, 161 00:07:51,760 --> 00:07:53,960 Speaker 1: and yet somehow the dollar never. 162 00:07:53,880 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 2: Seems to collapse. 163 00:07:55,480 --> 00:07:58,440 Speaker 1: Well, it's because the system isn't built on productivity anymore. 164 00:07:58,800 --> 00:08:02,240 Speaker 1: It's built on something else, something I call the imperial 165 00:08:02,360 --> 00:08:05,480 Speaker 1: carry trade. Here's how it works. For over eighty years, 166 00:08:05,520 --> 00:08:08,840 Speaker 1: the US has issued the world's reserve currency, the dollar. 167 00:08:09,000 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 2: Right. 168 00:08:09,320 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 1: That means everyone around the world, governments, corporations, banks, they 169 00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,080 Speaker 1: need dollars to trade, to borrow, to save, and that 170 00:08:17,240 --> 00:08:21,200 Speaker 1: privilege it gives the US an almost unlimited credit card. Now, 171 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,720 Speaker 1: according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, last year, America 172 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:27,840 Speaker 1: ran a current account deficit of about one point one 173 00:08:28,160 --> 00:08:32,400 Speaker 1: three trillion dollars, nearly four percent of GDP. That's money 174 00:08:32,400 --> 00:08:35,160 Speaker 1: flowing out of the country to pay for imports, for 175 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:38,680 Speaker 1: military bases, for foreign investments, and interest on the debt. 176 00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:43,040 Speaker 1: But because the world uses those dollars, those dollars they 177 00:08:43,080 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 1: come right back in. Foreigners recycle them by buying US 178 00:08:47,120 --> 00:08:50,760 Speaker 1: assets by buying US treasury bonds, by stocks, by buying 179 00:08:50,880 --> 00:08:54,720 Speaker 1: real estate. Now, today foreigners hold a record nine point 180 00:08:54,760 --> 00:08:58,720 Speaker 1: one trillion in treasuries. Japan alone owns more than one 181 00:08:58,760 --> 00:09:02,240 Speaker 1: point one trillion. The UK recently passed China as the 182 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:06,400 Speaker 1: second largest holder. So while the US runs these massive trade, 183 00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:10,599 Speaker 1: these massive budget deficits, it also attracts the world savings 184 00:09:10,720 --> 00:09:12,920 Speaker 1: to fund all of it. Right, That's what we call 185 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:16,559 Speaker 1: the carry, and it shows up on the balance sheet. Now, 186 00:09:16,559 --> 00:09:19,480 Speaker 1: if you add up everything the US owns abroad versus 187 00:09:19,760 --> 00:09:23,760 Speaker 1: what foreigners own here, the US is now negative by 188 00:09:23,880 --> 00:09:28,840 Speaker 1: twenty six trillion dollars. That's the net international investment position. 189 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:33,400 Speaker 1: Think about that, the world owns twenty six trillion more 190 00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:37,160 Speaker 1: of America than America owns of the world. And yet 191 00:09:37,200 --> 00:09:40,520 Speaker 1: the system it still runs because the rest of the 192 00:09:40,520 --> 00:09:44,760 Speaker 1: world wants those dollar assets. That's the power of having 193 00:09:44,800 --> 00:09:48,760 Speaker 1: the reserve currency. But now here's where the imperial part 194 00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:52,600 Speaker 1: comes in. When the FED cuts rates or launches QE, 195 00:09:52,920 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 1: which is coming, it pumps liquidity into the markets, Asset 196 00:09:57,280 --> 00:10:01,880 Speaker 1: prices rise, stocks, homes, bonds. All that creates what economists 197 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:04,880 Speaker 1: at the New York FED call the quote wealth effect. 198 00:10:05,120 --> 00:10:06,720 Speaker 2: Right, now they've studied this for decades. 199 00:10:07,200 --> 00:10:10,720 Speaker 1: For every dollar of stock market wealth, Americans spend about 200 00:10:10,720 --> 00:10:14,960 Speaker 1: two or three cents more. That extra spending boosts GDP. 201 00:10:15,520 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 1: It makes the economy look really strong, and it attracts 202 00:10:18,320 --> 00:10:23,000 Speaker 1: even more global capital that's chasing those rising nominal returns. 203 00:10:23,240 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 1: It's basically one giant feedback loop. Policy creates acid inflation. 204 00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:33,000 Speaker 1: Acid inflation creates consumption. Consumption attracts capital, and that capital 205 00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:37,240 Speaker 1: funds the next deficit. Round and round and round the 206 00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:40,280 Speaker 1: flywheel goes. But every carry trade it has a hidden 207 00:10:40,360 --> 00:10:43,760 Speaker 1: risk because all those foreign investors, you know, the ones 208 00:10:43,800 --> 00:10:47,560 Speaker 1: that are holding US bonds and holding stocks, they're taking 209 00:10:47,679 --> 00:10:48,440 Speaker 1: currency risk. 210 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:50,839 Speaker 2: If the dollar weekends. 211 00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 1: Or inflation runs hot, they're the ones that are going 212 00:10:53,480 --> 00:10:55,880 Speaker 1: to eat the loss in real terms. Right, the US 213 00:10:55,880 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: gets to inflate away part of its debt burden, but 214 00:10:58,400 --> 00:11:01,240 Speaker 1: the foreign holders, they lose purchasing power. That's why I 215 00:11:01,280 --> 00:11:03,480 Speaker 1: call it the imperial carry trade. 216 00:11:03,559 --> 00:11:03,719 Speaker 2: Right. 217 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,760 Speaker 1: It's the modern version of what every single empire does 218 00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:10,960 Speaker 1: in its final phase. It uses currency privilege to siphon 219 00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:16,120 Speaker 1: the world's wealth, inflate domestically, inflate asset prices, and quietly 220 00:11:16,280 --> 00:11:20,400 Speaker 1: export the losses abroad. It's elegant, it's great, but it's 221 00:11:20,440 --> 00:11:24,120 Speaker 1: temporary because no empire can keep this carry trade going forever. 222 00:11:24,600 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 1: And when that carry unwinds, when the world no longer 223 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:30,679 Speaker 1: wants to hold melting dollar claims. 224 00:11:30,240 --> 00:11:31,920 Speaker 2: Well, the illusion starts to break. 225 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:35,440 Speaker 1: That's when the real scoreboard starts to matter. And when 226 00:11:35,440 --> 00:11:38,720 Speaker 1: we switch to something else, a different scoreboard, we measure 227 00:11:38,720 --> 00:11:41,720 Speaker 1: something else other than dollars. Let's say we measure it 228 00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:44,560 Speaker 1: in gold, we measured it in bitcoin. That you'll see 229 00:11:44,720 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 1: how far the system has already fallen. Okay, So now 230 00:11:48,840 --> 00:11:51,880 Speaker 1: to really see this, to really understand this, let's measure 231 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:55,160 Speaker 1: the markets using three different yardsticks. We'll measure it in 232 00:11:55,160 --> 00:11:57,640 Speaker 1: the dollar, we'll measure it in gold, and then we'll measure. 233 00:11:57,360 --> 00:11:57,959 Speaker 2: It in bitcoin. 234 00:11:58,160 --> 00:12:00,240 Speaker 1: And that way we can see the story that each 235 00:12:00,360 --> 00:12:03,000 Speaker 1: one of these yardsticks tell us. So let's look at first. 236 00:12:03,040 --> 00:12:06,560 Speaker 1: We'll look at the dollar. We'll call it the comfortable illusion. 237 00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,800 Speaker 1: Let's start with the dollar is what every headline uses, 238 00:12:09,840 --> 00:12:12,400 Speaker 1: it's what most of the world uses. At the start 239 00:12:12,400 --> 00:12:14,600 Speaker 1: of twenty twenty, the S and P five hundred sat 240 00:12:14,600 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 1: at around thirty two seventy eight. Today, it's roughly sixty 241 00:12:18,240 --> 00:12:20,280 Speaker 1: eight seventy five, So that's a gain of about one 242 00:12:20,360 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: hundred and ten percent. Now, the case Shiller Home Price Index, 243 00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:27,839 Speaker 1: which tracks the US housing it was around two twelve 244 00:12:27,920 --> 00:12:30,679 Speaker 1: back then. Now it's around three thirty, so that's about 245 00:12:30,800 --> 00:12:33,599 Speaker 1: fifty six percent. Now, those are the charts that you 246 00:12:33,679 --> 00:12:36,040 Speaker 1: see on TV. Right, those are the ones that people 247 00:12:36,080 --> 00:12:39,720 Speaker 1: make that make you feel rich. Right, stocks at record highs. 248 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:42,760 Speaker 1: Home values are soaring. But remember what we talked about earlier. 249 00:12:43,080 --> 00:12:46,320 Speaker 1: Those highs are only due to the nominal dollars, right, 250 00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:48,840 Speaker 1: those dollars have been inflated at record speeds. So the 251 00:12:48,880 --> 00:12:51,960 Speaker 1: real question isn't how much the prices went up, it's 252 00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,559 Speaker 1: how much the measuring stick went down. 253 00:12:54,679 --> 00:12:57,400 Speaker 2: So let's use something different. Let's use gold. 254 00:12:57,760 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: If we switch that yard stick over to goal, then 255 00:13:00,760 --> 00:13:03,680 Speaker 1: we see something different. Now why gold, Well, because for 256 00:13:03,760 --> 00:13:06,959 Speaker 1: thousands of years, gold has been the baseline. Gold has 257 00:13:07,000 --> 00:13:09,640 Speaker 1: been the unit of account. Right, it's the oldest, most 258 00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:12,520 Speaker 1: trusted form of money. It's a real test of purchasing power. 259 00:13:12,800 --> 00:13:14,520 Speaker 1: So if we price the S and P five hundred 260 00:13:14,600 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: and gold, we get something completely different. Back in early 261 00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:21,079 Speaker 1: twenty twenty, gold was about fifteen to twenty per ounce, 262 00:13:21,360 --> 00:13:23,800 Speaker 1: and the SMP five hundred was thirty two seventy eight, 263 00:13:23,840 --> 00:13:26,839 Speaker 1: so that means the index was worth roughly two point 264 00:13:26,840 --> 00:13:30,000 Speaker 1: one six ounces of gold. Fast forward, today, the S 265 00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 1: and P five hundred is up around sixty eight seventy five, 266 00:13:32,559 --> 00:13:35,199 Speaker 1: and now gold's up over four thousand dollars an ounce. 267 00:13:35,640 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 1: That means that the S and P five hundred is 268 00:13:38,040 --> 00:13:40,840 Speaker 1: only about one point seven ounces of gold. So, in 269 00:13:40,840 --> 00:13:44,240 Speaker 1: other words, after all the inflation, after all the stimulus, 270 00:13:44,320 --> 00:13:48,199 Speaker 1: after all the AI, all the booming headlines, the market's 271 00:13:48,240 --> 00:13:50,119 Speaker 1: down when you measured in gold. 272 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:54,040 Speaker 2: Not up down five years, and it's down now. The 273 00:13:54,559 --> 00:13:55,560 Speaker 2: same is true for housing. 274 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,280 Speaker 1: Your home might have gone up by fifty six percent 275 00:13:58,320 --> 00:14:02,720 Speaker 1: in dollar terms. Again, gold's gone up to four thousand, right, 276 00:14:02,800 --> 00:14:07,120 Speaker 1: so in gold terms, real home values are down again. 277 00:14:07,320 --> 00:14:10,480 Speaker 1: Everything is going down. That's the first crack in the illusion. 278 00:14:10,880 --> 00:14:13,960 Speaker 1: Even under a traditional hard money standard, the gold standard, 279 00:14:14,160 --> 00:14:18,360 Speaker 1: supposed wealth boom completely disappears. Now let's switch to bitcoin, 280 00:14:18,760 --> 00:14:22,680 Speaker 1: arguably the hardest denominator we have today. In twenty twenty one, 281 00:14:22,680 --> 00:14:26,000 Speaker 1: bitcoin traded for about seven thousand dollars, and Bitcoin it's 282 00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,080 Speaker 1: been falling. It's fallen off of it's high of about 283 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,880 Speaker 1: one hundred and twenty six thousand. Today it's around ninety 284 00:14:31,000 --> 00:14:34,760 Speaker 1: ninety two thousand, but it's still roughly a thirteen times increase. 285 00:14:35,080 --> 00:14:37,560 Speaker 1: So if we reprice the S and P five hundred 286 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:40,080 Speaker 1: and bitcoin back then, one unit of the index was 287 00:14:40,120 --> 00:14:43,360 Speaker 1: worth about zero point four to seven bitcoin, but today 288 00:14:43,480 --> 00:14:46,760 Speaker 1: it's about point zero seven bitcoin. That means that's a 289 00:14:46,880 --> 00:14:50,160 Speaker 1: drop in real terms of roughly eighty four to eighty 290 00:14:50,200 --> 00:14:52,680 Speaker 1: five percent. Now, when we do the same for housing, 291 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 1: a fifty six percent moving dollars over the period, but 292 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:59,200 Speaker 1: against a thirteen times bitcoin rise, the result is a 293 00:14:59,240 --> 00:15:03,280 Speaker 1: decline in bitcoin terms in the eighty to ninety percent range. 294 00:15:03,440 --> 00:15:06,760 Speaker 1: Even gold, which doubled in dollars terms, has lost the 295 00:15:06,880 --> 00:15:09,760 Speaker 1: vast majority of its value when measured in bitcoin. 296 00:15:10,240 --> 00:15:11,240 Speaker 2: So in just five. 297 00:15:11,120 --> 00:15:13,800 Speaker 1: Years, bitcoin has completely flipped the scoreboard. 298 00:15:14,200 --> 00:15:16,120 Speaker 2: In dollars assets are going. 299 00:15:16,440 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 1: In gold, they're stagnant, but in bitcoin they're absolutely collapsing. 300 00:15:21,240 --> 00:15:23,520 Speaker 1: That's what Luke Grammin calls the scarf layer. It's a 301 00:15:23,560 --> 00:15:26,880 Speaker 1: living record of a dying denominator. Because what you're looking 302 00:15:26,920 --> 00:15:29,040 Speaker 1: at right now isn't just a bull market, it's not 303 00:15:29,080 --> 00:15:31,880 Speaker 1: just a bubble. It's the first stage of a global 304 00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:35,240 Speaker 1: unit of account fracture, a slow transition away from the 305 00:15:35,280 --> 00:15:38,520 Speaker 1: old measuring stick, the dollar, toward a new one. That's 306 00:15:38,560 --> 00:15:40,840 Speaker 1: why the world feels so off. 307 00:15:41,280 --> 00:15:43,080 Speaker 2: Is why wages don't match prices. 308 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:46,040 Speaker 1: It's why the economy looks strong on paper, but it 309 00:15:46,040 --> 00:15:49,040 Speaker 1: feels weaker in reality. We're measuring our world with a 310 00:15:49,160 --> 00:15:51,800 Speaker 1: broken ruler, and when you finally switch to one that 311 00:15:51,880 --> 00:15:54,720 Speaker 1: doesn't change, the truth comes into focus. 312 00:15:55,480 --> 00:15:57,120 Speaker 2: So now let's you understand that. 313 00:15:57,240 --> 00:15:59,960 Speaker 1: The next question is why the US keeps doing this, 314 00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:04,360 Speaker 1: why policy makers keep inflating assets and exporting risk abroad. 315 00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:08,400 Speaker 1: Because it's not random, right, It's a strategy. It's the 316 00:16:08,440 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 1: play the US is run before. It's what I call again. 317 00:16:11,280 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 2: The imperial carry trade. 318 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:16,120 Speaker 1: It's the hidden engine that's been keeping all of this alive. 319 00:16:16,360 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 1: Every empire's currency goes through the same process. First it dominates, 320 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:24,240 Speaker 1: then it defends, and then finally it dilutes. And when 321 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 1: you reach that last stage, the smartest players they quietly 322 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:32,000 Speaker 1: start shifting out of paper promises and into hard collateral. 323 00:16:32,280 --> 00:16:33,160 Speaker 1: That's exactly what. 324 00:16:33,120 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 2: We're seeing right now. 325 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:38,000 Speaker 1: According to the World Gold Council, central banks bought over 326 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:40,800 Speaker 1: one thousand tons of gold in both twenty twenty two 327 00:16:40,960 --> 00:16:44,320 Speaker 1: and twenty twenty three, the two biggest years on record. 328 00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:48,480 Speaker 1: In twenty twenty five, they're still buying. Just in August alone, 329 00:16:48,520 --> 00:16:51,840 Speaker 1: they added another nineteen tons to their reserves. Now this 330 00:16:51,880 --> 00:16:55,880 Speaker 1: isn't about a profit, this is about insurance. They're swapping 331 00:16:55,920 --> 00:16:59,720 Speaker 1: all those fiat IOUs for real settlement assets. Because when 332 00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:02,720 Speaker 1: you trust in the unit of account that starts breaking down, 333 00:17:03,200 --> 00:17:07,440 Speaker 1: gold becomes the neutral reserve choice. It's not someone else's liability. 334 00:17:07,920 --> 00:17:10,919 Speaker 1: That's the entire point. Now, the dollar still dominates. It's 335 00:17:11,000 --> 00:17:14,320 Speaker 1: roughly about fifty seven percent of global reserves once you 336 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:17,280 Speaker 1: adjust for exchange rates, but a decade ago that number 337 00:17:17,359 --> 00:17:20,720 Speaker 1: was close to sixty five percent. So the change is slow, 338 00:17:21,000 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: but it's persistent. Right, it's a creep While a lot 339 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:26,720 Speaker 1: of people are thinking there's a crash coming, it's crashing 340 00:17:27,040 --> 00:17:30,120 Speaker 1: just a little bit slower than what most people expect. 341 00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:33,320 Speaker 1: But at the same time, we're watching dozens of small 342 00:17:33,359 --> 00:17:35,080 Speaker 1: bypasses starting to open up. 343 00:17:35,160 --> 00:17:39,840 Speaker 2: Right, India and the UAE, they're now testing rupee trade. 344 00:17:40,119 --> 00:17:43,160 Speaker 1: Brazil and China, they've launched a twenty seven billion dollar 345 00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:46,920 Speaker 1: currency swap line. Iron ore contracts they're settling in Yuwan. 346 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 1: Now these things they sound small, they don't look really big. 347 00:17:51,200 --> 00:17:52,520 Speaker 2: Yet they are right. 348 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,320 Speaker 1: They're small, but they're important because they start to chip 349 00:17:55,359 --> 00:17:57,880 Speaker 1: away at the monopoly of one settlement rail. 350 00:17:58,280 --> 00:18:00,600 Speaker 2: That's how a unit of account fractus spreads. 351 00:18:00,720 --> 00:18:02,800 Speaker 1: It's not through a single event like most people think, 352 00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 1: but through one thousand quiet experiments. And while governments are 353 00:18:06,560 --> 00:18:10,080 Speaker 1: trying to build alternative rails, the market already has. It's 354 00:18:10,080 --> 00:18:13,320 Speaker 1: already built them. Stable coins, private dollar denominated tokens are 355 00:18:13,320 --> 00:18:17,359 Speaker 1: now settling over twenty seven trillion dollars a year. I 356 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:20,040 Speaker 1: mean to put that into perspective, that's more than visa. 357 00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:24,560 Speaker 1: These digital dollars move peer to peer, across borders, without banks, 358 00:18:24,560 --> 00:18:29,080 Speaker 1: without swift. That's the market quietly building its own financial plumbing, 359 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:34,000 Speaker 1: one that doesn't need permission, a unit of account agnostic 360 00:18:34,160 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: system that can clear dollars today, bitcoin tomorrow, or whatever 361 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:41,080 Speaker 1: comes next. And on the other end of the spectrum, 362 00:18:41,200 --> 00:18:43,919 Speaker 1: the institutions, they've also arrived. In the first year of 363 00:18:44,040 --> 00:18:47,400 Speaker 1: US spot Bitcoin ETFs, we saw thirty eight billion net inflows, 364 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,600 Speaker 1: a record for any new asset class. Blackrocks IBID alone 365 00:18:51,640 --> 00:18:55,240 Speaker 1: now holds over eight hundred thousand bitcoin nearly four percent 366 00:18:55,240 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 1: of the total supply. What this means is that what 367 00:18:57,520 --> 00:18:59,959 Speaker 1: used to be considered a risk asset on the fringe 368 00:19:00,359 --> 00:19:05,400 Speaker 1: is now sitting inside retirement accounts, inside corporate treasuries, sovereign 369 00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:06,159 Speaker 1: balance sheets. 370 00:19:07,000 --> 00:19:07,880 Speaker 2: So what does all this mean. 371 00:19:08,240 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 1: It means the scoreboard is already changing, even if the 372 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:15,480 Speaker 1: referees keep pretending it's the same game. Central banks they're 373 00:19:15,520 --> 00:19:18,560 Speaker 1: hoarding gold, right, trade partners are using their own currencies. 374 00:19:18,720 --> 00:19:22,240 Speaker 1: Stable coins have built a complete shadow payment network bigger 375 00:19:22,280 --> 00:19:22,960 Speaker 1: than visa. 376 00:19:23,040 --> 00:19:24,200 Speaker 2: Bitcoin has become. 377 00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:28,040 Speaker 1: A parallel reserve ledger recognized by Wall Street. We're not 378 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:31,240 Speaker 1: watching theory anymore, right, We're watching a transition. This is 379 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:34,200 Speaker 1: what a unit of account shift looks like from the inside. 380 00:19:34,240 --> 00:19:38,280 Speaker 1: It's slow, it's uneven, and yes it's messy, but it's 381 00:19:38,320 --> 00:19:41,159 Speaker 1: happening right now. And that brings us to the real question. 382 00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:45,080 Speaker 1: What do you do in a world where the measuring 383 00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 1: stick itself is breaking? 384 00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:48,960 Speaker 2: How do you position? How do you plan? 385 00:19:49,040 --> 00:19:51,680 Speaker 1: How do you protect yourself when the scoreboard is being 386 00:19:51,720 --> 00:19:55,159 Speaker 1: rewritten in real time? Well, as they say, awareness and 387 00:19:55,440 --> 00:19:58,320 Speaker 1: admitting the problem is the first step. So now that 388 00:19:58,400 --> 00:20:01,480 Speaker 1: you see that the scoreboards chained, the question is what 389 00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:05,360 Speaker 1: do you do with that information? Because this isn't about trading, right, 390 00:20:05,359 --> 00:20:08,320 Speaker 1: It's not about chasing headlines. It's about awareness. It's about 391 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:12,400 Speaker 1: knowing what game you're playing. It's about knowing what rules 392 00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:13,640 Speaker 1: are quietly being. 393 00:20:13,440 --> 00:20:14,440 Speaker 2: Rewritten underneath it. 394 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,040 Speaker 1: Now, the first step is simple, right, measure your wealth 395 00:20:17,320 --> 00:20:19,919 Speaker 1: in more than one yardstick. Now, most people only look 396 00:20:19,960 --> 00:20:22,439 Speaker 1: at their net worth in dollars, right, that's mistake number one. 397 00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:25,720 Speaker 1: Start tracking it in gold, Start tracking in bitcoin terms. 398 00:20:25,960 --> 00:20:28,520 Speaker 1: Just divide your total net worth by the price of 399 00:20:28,560 --> 00:20:29,359 Speaker 1: gold or by. 400 00:20:29,280 --> 00:20:30,200 Speaker 2: Bitcoin once a month. 401 00:20:30,480 --> 00:20:32,359 Speaker 1: Now, when you do that, you'll start to see what 402 00:20:32,440 --> 00:20:36,760 Speaker 1: central banks already know that the dollar is not constant. Next, 403 00:20:36,960 --> 00:20:40,120 Speaker 1: understand your positioning, right, This isn't about financial advice. It's 404 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:44,560 Speaker 1: about building a framework that survives transitions. Every empire's currency 405 00:20:44,560 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: cycle ends the same way. 406 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:47,800 Speaker 2: Right, the paper gets inflated. 407 00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:52,040 Speaker 1: But productive assets and scarce stores of value they carry forward. 408 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:52,919 Speaker 2: They keep going. 409 00:20:53,280 --> 00:20:56,280 Speaker 1: That's why institutional research from the World Gold Council shows 410 00:20:56,280 --> 00:20:59,920 Speaker 1: gold held it's purchasing power across centuries. Okay, and then 411 00:21:00,200 --> 00:21:03,639 Speaker 1: comes the process because behavior beats brilliance. Now, history shows 412 00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:07,359 Speaker 1: that lump sum investors tend to outperform about two thirds 413 00:21:07,359 --> 00:21:10,600 Speaker 1: of the time, simply because markets just tend to always 414 00:21:10,680 --> 00:21:14,000 Speaker 1: drift upwards. But dollar cost averaging reduces regret, it keeps 415 00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,639 Speaker 1: you consistent, and it protects you from emotion. Now, the 416 00:21:16,640 --> 00:21:20,360 Speaker 1: best system is the one that you'll actually stick with. Now, 417 00:21:20,359 --> 00:21:22,600 Speaker 1: that's really what this whole video has been about. Right, 418 00:21:22,640 --> 00:21:25,639 Speaker 1: It's all been about awareness, but it's specifically it's about 419 00:21:25,640 --> 00:21:28,960 Speaker 1: taking action now that you're aware of the problem, because 420 00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:32,320 Speaker 1: once you start measuring wealth correctly, you're going to start 421 00:21:32,400 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 1: seeing it correctly. You'll start to see what central banks 422 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:37,040 Speaker 1: are doing when they buy gold, You'll see what operators 423 00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:39,960 Speaker 1: are doing when they start adopting bitcoin. You'll see the 424 00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:43,080 Speaker 1: new system forming under your very feet. And the more 425 00:21:43,119 --> 00:21:46,399 Speaker 1: people that see it, the faster this transition unfolds. Like 426 00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:50,200 Speaker 1: we're literally living through a monetary transition that only happens 427 00:21:50,240 --> 00:21:53,159 Speaker 1: once in a generation. So don't watch it, just happen. 428 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:56,679 Speaker 1: Understand it, prepare for it, use it for your advantage, 429 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,399 Speaker 1: because once you see the truth behind the numbers, you'll 430 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:01,960 Speaker 1: never measure your wealth the same way again. And if 431 00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:05,240 Speaker 1: you want to see the time frame that I predict 432 00:22:05,440 --> 00:22:08,120 Speaker 1: all of this to happen over how it all unfolds, 433 00:22:08,160 --> 00:22:11,119 Speaker 1: you should probably go watch this video right here, and 434 00:22:11,200 --> 00:22:12,000 Speaker 1: i'll see you over there.