WEBVTT - 2026 NBA Draft Betting Preview 0:00:00.760 --> 0:00:04.360 What these young bloods have to understand at this game 0:00:05.160 --> 0:00:10.800 has always been it will always be about buckets. 0:00:11.039 --> 0:00:38.080 Have attacked the basket steps. 0:00:36.000 --> 0:00:37.000 Mild on. 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:41.600 The future is now welcome to Buckets. My name is 0:00:41.600 --> 0:00:43.920 Matt Moore. I'm the senior NBA writer for the Action Network, 0:00:43.960 --> 0:00:47.600 joined by Brandon Anderson. You know him as the Lionel 0:00:47.600 --> 0:00:51.000 Messis of r O I. You can catch uh. You 0:00:51.040 --> 0:00:53.640 can catch his coverage over at Wheaton Brando in the 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:57.440 Action Network out. This is your NBA Draft betting preview episode. 0:00:57.720 --> 0:01:00.240 We're gonna go through a number of things we're doing. 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:01.720 I wanted to take a little bit of a different 0:01:01.720 --> 0:01:05.480 approach this year for a number of reasons. We're going 0:01:05.560 --> 0:01:08.640 to get to some analysis of what we think about 0:01:08.640 --> 0:01:11.399 the draft, so this would be basketball talk. We will, 0:01:11.440 --> 0:01:13.160 of course, because it's a betting show, we'll have ways 0:01:13.160 --> 0:01:16.000 to bet it. We will also have philosophical questions about 0:01:16.000 --> 0:01:17.720 how to bet it. We will have best bets for you. 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:20.240 All of that more on today's show, and you can 0:01:20.319 --> 0:01:22.119 find everything we talk about in the award winning Action 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:24.160 Network app. There'll be an article version of this if 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:25.600 you want to check back and make sure that you 0:01:25.640 --> 0:01:26.959 got all the bets you'll be able to find that 0:01:27.000 --> 0:01:28.840 in the app. Make sure it should be on the 0:01:28.840 --> 0:01:31.319 lookout for that. We'll have a post draft episode on 0:01:31.400 --> 0:01:35.600 Wednesday before I depart for a mini vacation. Yes, I'm 0:01:35.640 --> 0:01:37.440 leaving for the second round of the NBA Draft because 0:01:37.480 --> 0:01:39.959 I don't care. And the reason I don't care is 0:01:40.000 --> 0:01:42.000 because none of those players matter until they turn it 0:01:42.000 --> 0:01:44.319 into Nikola Jokich. When they turn Intokohli Yokich, I'll be like, 0:01:44.319 --> 0:01:46.960 that's why the second round matters. But then I don't 0:01:47.480 --> 0:01:49.640 tend to do it. I don't know if we're gonna 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:51.200 get to the Yanat stuff today. Here's what I will 0:01:51.200 --> 0:01:52.960 tell you on the Yannaest stuff, because we got a 0:01:53.040 --> 0:01:56.360 question from Brian in the chat about it. If a 0:01:56.480 --> 0:01:59.480 Yannis trade happens, we'll do an episode like Brian for 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:02.040 SECAs chomping at the bit for it. Whichever way it goes, 0:02:02.560 --> 0:02:06.040 So we will have an emergency buckets episode. I will 0:02:06.040 --> 0:02:07.720 have to fit it around seventeen other things I'll have 0:02:07.760 --> 0:02:09.560 to do, but we will have a reaction to the 0:02:09.639 --> 0:02:11.600 honest episode. What I will tell you right now is like, 0:02:13.440 --> 0:02:15.200 is like I think I think he gets traded before 0:02:15.240 --> 0:02:17.880 the draft I'll I think he gets traded for the draft. 0:02:18.520 --> 0:02:22.720 I think Miami sixty sixty percent, the Celtics are thirty percent. 0:02:23.320 --> 0:02:27.120 Everything else is ten. So uh and yes, Brandon, we 0:02:27.160 --> 0:02:31.280 are live on YouTube dot com slash the Action Network, 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.240 which I did not tell you because I'm a bad host. 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:35.160 I did do a rundown today though, so you have 0:02:35.160 --> 0:02:36.680 to at least give me credit. I did a very 0:02:36.680 --> 0:02:40.320 detailed rundown for you to a day before rundown where 0:02:40.320 --> 0:02:42.600 we're in great shape today. I know I gave you 0:02:42.600 --> 0:02:44.840 this this like Monday. I gave you like Friday. 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:46.959 That's true, it wasn't even day before. Yeah, it's like 0:02:47.000 --> 0:02:49.640 a weekend before situation. I know. I want to just 0:02:49.680 --> 0:02:52.160 start just real quick off the top with so you 0:02:52.200 --> 0:02:54.160 mentioned like obviously we're gonna talk about the guys we like, 0:02:54.200 --> 0:02:56.040 the guys we don't like, the guys who think should 0:02:56.080 --> 0:02:58.320 go high, that we only should go high, and the 0:02:58.400 --> 0:03:01.560 bats for me. I just want to preface this with like, 0:03:01.600 --> 0:03:04.840 this draft stuff is hard, and it's like who cares 0:03:04.880 --> 0:03:07.200 what we think? Who cares what our evaluation is. We 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:08.600 don't know what the teams are, we don't know what 0:03:08.600 --> 0:03:12.800 they're thinking. These are extremely pizza bat bets today from 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:15.000 me at least, I'll let you comment on your process. 0:03:15.080 --> 0:03:18.440 But for me betting the draft, I am mostly looking 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:21.480 at betting against certainty and betting kind of against the 0:03:21.720 --> 0:03:23.840 the the big push intels that are out there, just 0:03:23.880 --> 0:03:25.880 because I'm like, I don't know, man, weird stuff happens 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:28.240 in the draft, and I take shots, but I'm going 0:03:28.360 --> 0:03:30.320 very light on these and it's kind of having fun 0:03:30.639 --> 0:03:33.520 extra reasons to pay attention during draft night. How do 0:03:33.560 --> 0:03:35.400 you bet the draft? What's your kind of mL. 0:03:36.040 --> 0:03:38.480 So, I mean, I'm doing pretty standard units on anything 0:03:38.480 --> 0:03:40.600 that I'm betting, unless it's like a really wild outcome, 0:03:40.680 --> 0:03:43.960 like I have some I have bet my opinion, So 0:03:44.320 --> 0:03:47.600 I would say I have the logic based bets are 0:03:48.280 --> 0:03:51.640 like a full unit because it's like betting a night 0:03:51.680 --> 0:03:54.840 of basketball for me, okay, like a full sixteen game. 0:03:54.880 --> 0:04:01.240 Sure the stuff, Like I have bet Booze one the 0:04:01.360 --> 0:04:08.200 Bonsa to Peterson three cam or with Caleb four. I 0:04:08.200 --> 0:04:12.160 have bet that at like thirty to one because I 0:04:12.160 --> 0:04:14.800 think that's the order it should be in, Like that's 0:04:14.800 --> 0:04:17.760 the order I think it should be in. So I've 0:04:17.760 --> 0:04:21.280 put pizza money on that. The everything else I've bet, like, Okay, 0:04:21.320 --> 0:04:23.920 I've been pretty particular with how I bet it the 0:04:24.400 --> 0:04:26.000 biggest thing I want to talk to you about today 0:04:26.000 --> 0:04:28.080 because I think this is like worth talking about. Okay, 0:04:28.480 --> 0:04:30.880 I've done Intel stuff on the Draft before, and we've 0:04:30.880 --> 0:04:32.320 had some massive hits on the show, and we've had 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:34.440 some massive misses. Like a great example of a massive 0:04:34.480 --> 0:04:37.000 hit was that I was able to hear very early 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:39.800 on the Scottie Barnes was like going to Toronto and 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:45.800 that was going to happen. I was going to, Like, 0:04:46.200 --> 0:04:48.560 I think that there's value in being able to find 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:50.200 when you hear about those kind of things. I wish 0:04:50.240 --> 0:04:52.359 I'd gotten in on Caleb Wilson earlier. I should have 0:04:52.520 --> 0:04:54.520 been more up on it. I was dealing with the finals, 0:04:54.920 --> 0:04:57.360 but like, there was probably value back in the beginning 0:04:57.360 --> 0:04:59.760 to get Caleb Wilson number four and now it's too 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:02.440 far gone and we'll talk about some of the other 0:05:02.480 --> 0:05:05.200 things there. But I also think that a lot of 0:05:05.240 --> 0:05:08.440 the of the Intel is nonsense, and I think that 0:05:08.560 --> 0:05:11.479 it even when it's not nonsense, a team you could 0:05:11.480 --> 0:05:13.039 be like, I hear they really like this guy, yeah, 0:05:13.040 --> 0:05:15.640 but doesn't mean they're gonna take him because one guy 0:05:15.680 --> 0:05:17.560 in the room might really like a guy. The assistant 0:05:17.560 --> 0:05:20.320 GM might love a guy and be very high on him, 0:05:21.080 --> 0:05:23.360 or the agent might have really strong ties with this 0:05:23.400 --> 0:05:25.080 team and feel like, yeah, they're gonna take my guy. 0:05:26.160 --> 0:05:27.960 But that doesn't mean that the ultimate decision maker comes 0:05:28.000 --> 0:05:30.800 in and sometimes you're split and the owner comes in 0:05:30.839 --> 0:05:32.320 and it's just like, no, we're taking this other guy. 0:05:32.680 --> 0:05:35.560 We're gonna we're gonna grab that guy. And so I 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:37.440 think that's all I think part of the of the 0:05:37.440 --> 0:05:40.239 conversation here. The question I want to ask you, Brandon 0:05:40.360 --> 0:05:42.160 is not whether we should bet intel. I want to 0:05:42.160 --> 0:05:45.160 ask you the opposite. Is there a value? Is there 0:05:45.200 --> 0:05:49.480 a strategy to be found in purely fading the noise 0:05:49.680 --> 0:05:51.320 and intel about teams? 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:53.480 I mean, I think that largely is kind of how 0:05:53.520 --> 0:05:55.800 I bet the draft, even like you already came in 0:05:55.839 --> 0:05:59.360 with the Caleb Wilson intel at number four and he's 0:05:59.480 --> 0:06:01.560 up to like is eight hundred and nine hundred at 0:06:01.600 --> 0:06:03.560 some books, Like we all know, there's no way I'm 0:06:03.600 --> 0:06:06.520 betting a minus nine hundred on anything, let alone on 0:06:06.640 --> 0:06:10.160 Draft night. But spoiler, my best bet of the entire 0:06:10.240 --> 0:06:12.760 podcast day is going to be a call Wilson bet 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:15.280 and it's going to be not to go number four 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:17.719 like that literally is my best bet. I am coming 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:21.760 out swinging on to me like my whole future's mo 0:06:22.520 --> 0:06:25.760 in anything is. I know we all think this is 0:06:25.800 --> 0:06:28.280 the thing that has to happen, but what if it didn't, 0:06:28.360 --> 0:06:30.960 what if it's not that thing? So the draft is 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:32.960 the perfect spot for that to say. I know, the 0:06:32.960 --> 0:06:35.760 Intel says this is what's going to happen. And every 0:06:35.800 --> 0:06:38.040 time it goes the same way, Matt, the Intel comes out, 0:06:38.320 --> 0:06:40.240 we get Cavoni, we get wu, we get who I 0:06:40.240 --> 0:06:43.400 have Vasini, whatever the name is, and instantly everything gets 0:06:43.400 --> 0:06:46.880 steamed one direction, and now we have prediction markets and 0:06:46.920 --> 0:06:50.200 we can bet the opposite direction. And I am never 0:06:50.360 --> 0:06:54.320 ever going to be the person that follows the Intel steam. 0:06:54.520 --> 0:06:57.120 That's just to I'm not telling you that's the wrong 0:06:57.200 --> 0:06:59.040 thing to do. I'm just saying I'm not going to 0:06:59.080 --> 0:07:01.560 be that guy. I don't have enough connectivities. That's the 0:07:01.600 --> 0:07:04.040 wrong thing to do. I think it's the wrong thing 0:07:04.080 --> 0:07:07.240 to do. Unless I think it's possible, Matt, that it's 0:07:07.320 --> 0:07:09.640 the right thing for you to do. I think you 0:07:09.680 --> 0:07:11.760 are close enough to the Intel and to some of 0:07:11.800 --> 0:07:14.640 these sources that you might actually catch it early enough. 0:07:15.000 --> 0:07:17.680 By the time that I'm finding out anything, because I 0:07:17.720 --> 0:07:21.120 don't have sources, it's too late and whatever value might 0:07:21.160 --> 0:07:23.320 have been is gone and I should be going the 0:07:23.320 --> 0:07:26.960 other direction. So I think to most listeners who are 0:07:27.000 --> 0:07:29.760 now hearing it third and fourth party from through us 0:07:29.840 --> 0:07:32.320 or wherever, I think it's too late and your only 0:07:32.320 --> 0:07:34.720 real option is to either stay away because you missed it, 0:07:34.840 --> 0:07:37.360 or to go against it. And I prefer to go 0:07:37.440 --> 0:07:39.360 against certainty. And that's kind of my mo o on 0:07:39.480 --> 0:07:40.560 drafting or on betting. 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:44.480 Yeah, And I think that that's like I've often I've 0:07:44.480 --> 0:07:46.120 been thinking a lot of that Brandon's approach, and I 0:07:46.200 --> 0:07:47.760 keep coming back to like the Big Short and the 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:51.400 fact that those guys would the way they got started 0:07:51.440 --> 0:07:53.440 was they were just betting that out bad outcomes with 0:07:53.520 --> 0:07:54.960 a cur because no one ever thought bad outcomes with 0:07:55.000 --> 0:07:56.240 a curve because you don't want to think about it. 0:07:56.640 --> 0:07:59.400 And it's kind of the same kind of premise here. 0:07:59.600 --> 0:08:01.240 I know that I kind of wonder about that I'm 0:08:01.320 --> 0:08:03.800 curious on is just simply going so like here's a 0:08:03.800 --> 0:08:09.160 good example, Keaton Waggler has like no hype, none, there's 0:08:09.200 --> 0:08:11.440 no hype for Keaton Waggler, I don't get here. I 0:08:11.480 --> 0:08:16.880 hear about Mara, I hear about a ment, I hear 0:08:16.920 --> 0:08:20.240 about like I'm fading ament just as like as a 0:08:20.240 --> 0:08:22.520 as a prior, because like this is how I'm doing that. 0:08:22.840 --> 0:08:25.080 And I think that there are players that the hype 0:08:25.120 --> 0:08:29.200 is drawn from the player's side. I think that immense 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:32.040 people have been telling everyone you know who really loves him, 0:08:32.360 --> 0:08:36.720 it's Brooklyn, the other really loves him, the Kings Dallas 0:08:36.760 --> 0:08:38.480 could not get enough of a mint, And then that 0:08:38.520 --> 0:08:42.440 gets out unsourced, like unsided, and it's like, yeah, because 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:44.040 you heard it from a reliable source, which is like 0:08:44.080 --> 0:08:47.160 somebody they would know they were in those conversations, but 0:08:47.160 --> 0:08:49.360 that doesn't mean they're going to take them. And so 0:08:49.400 --> 0:08:51.120 I think there's probably a way to do that. Like 0:08:51.160 --> 0:08:53.320 there's all a lot of times when I have bet 0:08:53.360 --> 0:08:56.040 guys that's like I've heard this guy mentioned a lot, 0:08:57.840 --> 0:09:00.800 and so you bet the under on that guy, and 0:09:00.840 --> 0:09:02.480 then it's like this guy that you did that you 0:09:02.520 --> 0:09:06.280 heard nothing that was consistently mock pie, well thought of 0:09:06.320 --> 0:09:09.199 on the draft boards, but wasn't consistently talked about. That's 0:09:09.200 --> 0:09:11.240 the guy that ends up going higher because it's just like, yeah, 0:09:11.559 --> 0:09:14.000 his people were quieter about it, and the teams were 0:09:14.080 --> 0:09:16.839 quieter about it because they liked him. So I agree 0:09:16.880 --> 0:09:18.240 with you that there's a way to do this. That's 0:09:18.360 --> 0:09:21.480 that's pretty delicate. It's a tricky balance of trying to 0:09:21.480 --> 0:09:22.079 read through. 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:24.800 And it's as always, it's the number. If you have 0:09:24.840 --> 0:09:26.959 a piece of intel that you think you have reason 0:09:27.000 --> 0:09:29.760 to believe, and the intel is I can bet this 0:09:29.920 --> 0:09:32.920 outcome at thirty to one, Sure take a shot. That's great. 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:36.439 I'm all for that. If your intel is, oh, here's 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:38.320 the exact top three order that I think is going 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:40.800 to happen because this report came out, but we're still 0:09:40.920 --> 0:09:43.679 thirty six hours from the draft. Don't bet that as 0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:46.480 a favorite as like a minus one point fifteen and 0:09:46.520 --> 0:09:49.160 you're chasing steam on these three exact things to happen 0:09:49.200 --> 0:09:51.960 with time to go. That's not the way to go. 0:09:52.080 --> 0:09:55.400 So again, it's always nuanced. It's always the number if 0:09:55.440 --> 0:09:58.000 you if you have an intel and it's a long number, 0:09:58.040 --> 0:09:59.800 sure take a shot. Maybe you're ahead of the game, 0:10:00.600 --> 0:10:03.000 and that's its long shots. Like that's that's the whole 0:10:03.000 --> 0:10:05.280 thing with betting that way. So I think, to me 0:10:05.400 --> 0:10:08.200 is just which direction is the number and how do 0:10:08.280 --> 0:10:11.720 I how do I beat against certainty in some of 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:14.240 these situations. So should we get into the guys at 0:10:14.240 --> 0:10:15.560 the top. Let's do it. 0:10:15.640 --> 0:10:17.320 Let's start with number one through three. We're gonna actually 0:10:17.320 --> 0:10:19.199 gonna talk about who we think should go number one 0:10:19.240 --> 0:10:22.760 through three. This is a fascinating draft. Washington Wizards with 0:10:22.760 --> 0:10:25.319 the number one, Utah Jazz the number two, in Memphis 0:10:25.360 --> 0:10:29.600 Grizzlies at the number three spot. There is still considerable interest. 0:10:29.640 --> 0:10:32.760 This is I think you can adequately say that the 0:10:32.800 --> 0:10:35.160 way this has talked about is in conversation. In the 0:10:35.280 --> 0:10:39.600 consensus is that it's a two. There's a tier at 0:10:39.600 --> 0:10:42.640 the top with Darren Peterson and aj Debontsa, and then 0:10:42.679 --> 0:10:45.199 there's a tier with Cameron Boozer, and then there's a drop. 0:10:45.240 --> 0:10:47.800 Brandon's gonna tell you why he disagrees with that, but 0:10:47.800 --> 0:10:49.760 that's like the consensus. I will go ahead and just 0:10:49.760 --> 0:10:51.959 tell you, like what I think should happen. Cameron Boozer 0:10:52.000 --> 0:10:55.199 should go number one. He leads the country in BPM 0:10:55.360 --> 0:10:58.079 by a massive margin. There's a number over at databaller 0:10:58.120 --> 0:11:01.120 dot com called BPM plus, which actually factors in strength 0:11:01.120 --> 0:11:06.000 of schedule and he is a plus seventeen like by far. Okay, 0:11:06.080 --> 0:11:08.160 I don't care about the metrics math. This is college fair. 0:11:08.480 --> 0:11:10.720 I watch Cameron Boozer. I've watched all of this tape 0:11:10.720 --> 0:11:12.200 on him, and what I continue to think is, this 0:11:12.200 --> 0:11:14.480 is a guy that's gonna help you win games. He's 0:11:14.520 --> 0:11:17.480 gonna be a connector. He can score, he can drive, 0:11:17.920 --> 0:11:20.560 he can pass, he can pass out of post ups 0:11:20.600 --> 0:11:24.199 versus smaller players, he can drive versus bigger ones. There 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:27.400 are questions about his viability as a four, given his 0:11:27.440 --> 0:11:29.600 frame and size, that he's not going to be big enough. 0:11:30.160 --> 0:11:33.079 I feel that he is strong enough, polish enough, developed 0:11:33.160 --> 0:11:36.280 enough to be a hugely impactful player. I think my 0:11:36.480 --> 0:11:39.320 question is always, are you going to help your team win? 0:11:39.720 --> 0:11:42.760 Darren Peterson's gonna get buckets. AJ Debans is gonna have 0:11:42.800 --> 0:11:45.600 great highlights. I think Cameron Boozer is going to help 0:11:45.640 --> 0:11:50.040 you win games. I want Cameron Boozer number one. My 0:11:50.160 --> 0:11:54.480 second would be Aj debansa because he's a monster, and 0:11:54.520 --> 0:11:56.920 he's athletic, and he's able to score, and he's got 0:11:57.000 --> 0:11:59.960 three level scoring capability and the defensive link this great 0:12:00.080 --> 0:12:03.720 and all those type of things. My third is Caleb Wilson, 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:08.240 incredible motor, able to play at a high level. Would 0:12:08.280 --> 0:12:10.320 love to see him next to Edie and Cedric Coward. 0:12:10.640 --> 0:12:12.920 And then my fourth is Darren Peterson. You are not 0:12:12.960 --> 0:12:17.000 gonna get me on board with a Kansas guard who 0:12:17.040 --> 0:12:20.880 averages one point five assists per game. This goes against 0:12:20.920 --> 0:12:23.680 everything I think. I don't care about the Createen stuff. 0:12:23.679 --> 0:12:25.320 I don't care about him having to sick games. I 0:12:25.320 --> 0:12:27.440 don't care about any of that stuff. Bad stuff happens, 0:12:27.440 --> 0:12:29.960 bad luck happens, whatever. This is a kid that won't 0:12:30.000 --> 0:12:32.040 work out for other teams because he thinks he's above it, 0:12:32.840 --> 0:12:34.360 and that's not his fault. A lot of times the 0:12:34.360 --> 0:12:36.679 representation kind of just impacts the kid. It's not even 0:12:36.760 --> 0:12:41.120 Darren's fault, it's just within the representation. It's he sounds 0:12:41.120 --> 0:12:44.000 like a headache rapped with a player that doesn't make 0:12:44.000 --> 0:12:46.600 anybody better, who gets buckets. Not my kind of guy. 0:12:46.880 --> 0:12:50.920 So I have Darren Peterson four, what's your one through three? 0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:52.400 And then fourth Brandon? 0:12:52.720 --> 0:12:57.080 Yeah. So actually we came out we have different process 0:12:57.120 --> 0:12:59.640 to get there, but we come out actually relatively similar 0:13:00.120 --> 0:13:03.440 similar here, So I end up with for now aj 0:13:03.559 --> 0:13:06.400 debansa number one on my board, which is very uncomfortable 0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:08.959 to me because there's times where early in the season 0:13:09.000 --> 0:13:10.880 I was texting Joe and Jim about this and I 0:13:10.920 --> 0:13:13.640 was like, Andrew Wiggins, call my shot, Andrew Wiggins, get 0:13:13.679 --> 0:13:15.280 him out of here. I'm not in on this guy. 0:13:15.679 --> 0:13:18.679 And some games you watch and you see the Wiggins thing, 0:13:18.720 --> 0:13:21.600 you see the Ingram thing where it's like, thirteen minutes 0:13:21.679 --> 0:13:23.720 just went by, where was he at? Did you get 0:13:23.760 --> 0:13:24.280 a shot up? 0:13:24.320 --> 0:13:24.480 Bro? 0:13:24.640 --> 0:13:26.440 Like, what are you doing out here? Did you impact 0:13:26.480 --> 0:13:29.200 the game at all? Four turnovers in six minutes? The 0:13:29.200 --> 0:13:32.199 next game and the next game, it's like he played 0:13:32.200 --> 0:13:34.880 a I think Clemson in like December, and you're watching 0:13:34.880 --> 0:13:36.679 the game and they kind of just stuck in mud 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:38.520 and then come out on the second half and they're 0:13:38.559 --> 0:13:41.520 behind by like twenty or something and he drops. He 0:13:41.640 --> 0:13:44.600 like outscored the entire Clemson side and led the comeback. 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:48.760 This is a guy who has the scoring upside as 0:13:48.800 --> 0:13:50.920 a jumbo size wing that I think is going to 0:13:50.960 --> 0:13:53.480 be able to play the four very easily. I think 0:13:53.520 --> 0:13:58.280 he has legitimate upside to possibly score thirty a game 0:13:58.400 --> 0:14:00.680 if he actually peaks at what he can, and to 0:14:00.840 --> 0:14:04.560 lead the league in scoring multiple times and that is 0:14:05.080 --> 0:14:07.640 I'm not the guy to hyperbole on guys, but I 0:14:07.679 --> 0:14:11.320 think that is the upside, that it is a Wiggins downside, 0:14:11.360 --> 0:14:13.640 like it might just be I don't Matt, you and 0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:16.120 I never liked the ingrams of the world of like 0:14:16.440 --> 0:14:19.800 the kind of empty bucket wing dude that I don't 0:14:20.520 --> 0:14:24.040 really see him super elevating teammates. I think his passing 0:14:24.080 --> 0:14:26.200 needs work, I think his handle needs work. His defense 0:14:26.520 --> 0:14:28.400 was not great, even though his bodies should be good 0:14:28.400 --> 0:14:31.400 for it. But the passing or sorry, the scoring ability 0:14:32.080 --> 0:14:35.600 and always NBA teams needing a wing. I just couldn't 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:37.480 get past that number one. I will say this too, 0:14:38.360 --> 0:14:40.880 my top tier would be empty, like not to dump 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.520 on the parade, but last year Cooper Flag Dylan Harper 0:14:43.560 --> 0:14:45.400 would have been higher than anyone I have in this 0:14:45.480 --> 0:14:48.520 year class, and so I kind of have a well, 0:14:48.520 --> 0:14:50.320 I have to have someone at number one. So that's 0:14:50.320 --> 0:14:53.680 the BONSA. I agree, I have Cam Boozer. Second, I 0:14:53.720 --> 0:14:57.000 agree with virtually everything that you said about him. My 0:14:57.160 --> 0:15:01.000 problem is that I have doubts of out what his 0:15:01.080 --> 0:15:04.720 game does translating to the NBA. He plays so below 0:15:04.840 --> 0:15:08.560 the rim and he relies so much on bullyball in 0:15:08.600 --> 0:15:11.560 the post for his scoring, and I'm not convinced that 0:15:11.600 --> 0:15:14.040 his scoring is going to translate well to the NBA. 0:15:14.560 --> 0:15:16.720 And I'm not convinced he's going to be able to 0:15:16.760 --> 0:15:19.360 defend that well. He cannot really protect the rim at all. 0:15:19.760 --> 0:15:22.000 He's going to need. I think a key thing people 0:15:22.040 --> 0:15:25.600 overlook is Patrick Gungba, who was the center who I 0:15:25.800 --> 0:15:28.760 really like, actually was supposed to be a lottery pick 0:15:28.760 --> 0:15:31.360 and decided to go back to school at Duke. When 0:15:31.400 --> 0:15:34.160 he was missing and not in the lineup, Bozer was 0:15:34.240 --> 0:15:37.640 way worse on offense and on defense. His offense was 0:15:37.680 --> 0:15:40.160 worse because he didn't have this vertical rim threat pulling 0:15:40.200 --> 0:15:42.800 in and his defense did not have Numba behind him, 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:47.400 and it was completely different Duke team and Boozer team 0:15:47.760 --> 0:15:50.840 and the magical. Oh, he just wins. Well, he wins 0:15:50.880 --> 0:15:53.040 against the ACC that kind of sucked this year, and 0:15:53.080 --> 0:15:54.800 he didn't really win all that well in the tournament. 0:15:54.840 --> 0:15:57.160 They didn't even make the final four. They beat Sienna 0:15:57.280 --> 0:15:59.480 by like six in the first round. Like that, he 0:15:59.600 --> 0:16:01.840 just wins. Thing we hear about dudes every year, and 0:16:01.880 --> 0:16:06.880 I can't buy just that. It stinks because all the 0:16:06.920 --> 0:16:10.000 stuff you said Matt. I want to love about Boozer, 0:16:10.160 --> 0:16:13.160 like all the makes teammates better and all the little 0:16:13.160 --> 0:16:15.320 things I see. I see all those things about him, 0:16:15.600 --> 0:16:18.160 and I want to get there, And I just say, Okay, 0:16:18.920 --> 0:16:21.440 if you're Kevin Love, ask if that's what you are 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:24.280 in this modern ear. If you are, I think maybe 0:16:24.520 --> 0:16:27.360 power forward to Bonus or Shane Gun. Are you an 0:16:27.360 --> 0:16:29.800 analytics darling that's going to have the big stats and 0:16:29.920 --> 0:16:32.520 the good bpms, but be the best player on like 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:36.520 forty three win team, Like I just fear we're going 0:16:36.560 --> 0:16:38.280 to get some version of that, and so I kind 0:16:38.280 --> 0:16:40.880 of end up on this high floor if I don't 0:16:40.880 --> 0:16:44.680 know about the ceiling. Caleb Wilson's my third guy. I 0:16:44.760 --> 0:16:47.360 love Caleb Wilson, and I probably should have some stones 0:16:47.360 --> 0:16:49.800 and put them first. But I'm a little disappointed. Once 0:16:49.800 --> 0:16:53.680 I dug into the age, the size, the combine profile 0:16:54.040 --> 0:16:58.200 all a little disappointing. He's raw. He's really raw, and 0:16:58.280 --> 0:17:01.440 I was hoping that it's like, oh, it's fine, he's 0:17:01.480 --> 0:17:04.520 like a year younger, he's gonna develop, it's fine. He's big, 0:17:04.560 --> 0:17:08.000 he's huge, he's super twitchy and athletic. Well, some of 0:17:08.040 --> 0:17:10.480 the combine stuff not quite as good as you hope good, 0:17:10.680 --> 0:17:13.600 but not like super hyper elite. He looks like this incredible, 0:17:13.640 --> 0:17:16.800 incredible athlete. He looks and again I try to not 0:17:16.880 --> 0:17:20.240 do hyperbole on this stuff. If I watch highlights of 0:17:20.400 --> 0:17:24.960 Caleb Wilson, I see possible Kevin Garnett, I see possible 0:17:25.000 --> 0:17:29.000 Giannics onto the Koompo. I see kind of weirdly skinny Zion. 0:17:29.240 --> 0:17:31.399 Maybe the way that he attacks the rim, that the 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:35.719 pogo jump just quick jump, insane energy, freak athlete. And 0:17:35.760 --> 0:17:38.520 there's a lot that's missing that, the feel for the game, 0:17:38.560 --> 0:17:41.960 the stuff I want in prospects, it's not quite there. 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:44.919 The shot is not good. But the thing I like 0:17:45.040 --> 0:17:47.760 best about him of these three and the guys at 0:17:47.760 --> 0:17:50.720 the top is I don't necessarily think any of these 0:17:50.720 --> 0:17:52.920 guys are the star of a title team. I think 0:17:52.920 --> 0:17:55.840 they're probably second or third guys. I like how Caleb 0:17:55.880 --> 0:17:59.120 Wilson fits into that team as the second or third 0:17:59.160 --> 0:18:01.520 guy better then I like the other guys. So that's 0:18:01.600 --> 0:18:04.679 my top three. I actually have Darren Peterson fifth on 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:08.080 my board. I have a clear tear drop below. I 0:18:08.119 --> 0:18:10.240 agree with the stuff you said about the questions on 0:18:10.560 --> 0:18:13.320 the character and the team fit and just the body language, 0:18:13.320 --> 0:18:15.919 watching how guys are reacting to him, and even if 0:18:15.960 --> 0:18:19.000 he's the thing he's supposed to be talent wise, if 0:18:19.000 --> 0:18:21.200 you've listened to me for any point, I've been a writer, 0:18:21.320 --> 0:18:23.680 like that is the least archetype thing that I want 0:18:23.720 --> 0:18:26.600 in the NBA. Like the ball chucker who doesn't make 0:18:26.640 --> 0:18:29.840 his teammates better is a bucket. That is not my guy. 0:18:29.920 --> 0:18:32.280 That's not my team building thing. So if I don't 0:18:32.320 --> 0:18:35.080 even like that much the positive outcome that you are, 0:18:35.119 --> 0:18:36.960 you're gonna get overpaid because you score a lot of 0:18:37.000 --> 0:18:40.040 points and you're not really helping your team. Just not 0:18:40.119 --> 0:18:42.880 my guy. I would not want to attach my wagonto him. 0:18:42.880 --> 0:18:44.560 So that's my thoughts on the top guys. 0:18:44.960 --> 0:18:48.720 So every big board has Boozer one, most of them. 0:18:48.720 --> 0:18:51.479 Most of the big boards have Boozer one. And this 0:18:51.520 --> 0:18:53.320 is from even some of the guys that do consulting work. 0:18:54.400 --> 0:18:57.120 And yet every mock draft has Peterson or aj one, 0:18:57.280 --> 0:18:59.000 and I continue, these are the ones that always stress 0:18:59.040 --> 0:19:02.760 me out where I'm like, okay, I trust to a 0:19:02.760 --> 0:19:08.440 certain degree the consensus systems. Why is every smart analyst 0:19:08.560 --> 0:19:12.560 like Boozer should go one and every mock draft, like, well, 0:19:12.560 --> 0:19:14.680 it's gonna be aj or Peterson. When I will tell 0:19:14.720 --> 0:19:17.679 you like, I don't think the Wizards are leaking the 0:19:17.720 --> 0:19:20.359