1 00:00:15,276 --> 00:00:21,956 Speaker 1: Pushkin. I spend a lot of my life walking into 2 00:00:22,036 --> 00:00:25,436 Speaker 1: complicated situations and trying to figure out who really knows 3 00:00:25,476 --> 00:00:29,716 Speaker 1: what's going on, who the expert is. It's not always 4 00:00:29,716 --> 00:00:33,676 Speaker 1: easy to tell. But there was one time when it 5 00:00:33,796 --> 00:00:39,076 Speaker 1: was easy. This was back in two thousand and two. 6 00:00:39,556 --> 00:00:41,916 Speaker 1: I just decided to write a book about something truly 7 00:00:41,956 --> 00:00:45,676 Speaker 1: weird happening in professional baseball. People with a talent for 8 00:00:45,716 --> 00:00:49,396 Speaker 1: analyzing data were proving that people who ran baseball teams 9 00:00:50,036 --> 00:00:52,956 Speaker 1: didn't really know what they were doing. What was happening 10 00:00:52,956 --> 00:00:55,956 Speaker 1: in baseball was the first shot in an expert revolution. 11 00:00:56,836 --> 00:01:00,076 Speaker 1: We're still living in it. It goes by different names, 12 00:01:00,996 --> 00:01:06,316 Speaker 1: big data, analytics, moneyball. You may not look like a 13 00:01:06,316 --> 00:01:18,476 Speaker 1: winning team, but you are one. Back in two thousand 14 00:01:18,476 --> 00:01:20,956 Speaker 1: and two, it was instantly clear who the expert was. 15 00:01:21,556 --> 00:01:25,356 Speaker 1: His name was Bill James. He lived in Lawrence, Kansas, 16 00:01:25,956 --> 00:01:29,196 Speaker 1: and so to Lawrence, Kansas I flew, and I remember 17 00:01:29,196 --> 00:01:32,676 Speaker 1: two things about that encounter. The first was his manner. 18 00:01:32,716 --> 00:01:38,596 Speaker 1: How unlike a revolutionary he seemed. He was big, with 19 00:01:38,636 --> 00:01:41,076 Speaker 1: a beard like a bear, but a slow moving one 20 00:01:41,076 --> 00:01:45,796 Speaker 1: that only ate plants. He was slow, and deliberate and unassuming. 21 00:01:46,796 --> 00:01:49,596 Speaker 1: He had every reason to see himself as the world's 22 00:01:49,676 --> 00:01:53,596 Speaker 1: greatest expert in baseball. But that's not how he saw himself. 23 00:01:55,076 --> 00:01:56,916 Speaker 1: The other thing I remember was the picture on the 24 00:01:56,956 --> 00:02:00,396 Speaker 1: wall by his desk, a picture of a baseball diamond. 25 00:02:01,196 --> 00:02:04,876 Speaker 1: He pointed to it and said, that's a field of ignorance. 26 00:02:09,236 --> 00:02:12,116 Speaker 1: Bill James could have bassed in what he knew about baseball, 27 00:02:13,396 --> 00:02:17,036 Speaker 1: but he made a point to remind himself of what 28 00:02:17,076 --> 00:02:28,076 Speaker 1: he didn't know. I'm Michael Lewis. Welcome back to Against 29 00:02:28,116 --> 00:02:32,596 Speaker 1: the Rules, where we explore unfairness in American life by 30 00:02:32,636 --> 00:02:35,556 Speaker 1: looking at what's happened to various characters in American life. 31 00:02:36,436 --> 00:02:40,996 Speaker 1: This season is all about experts. Our first episodes looked 32 00:02:41,036 --> 00:02:44,796 Speaker 1: into the ways that people do or do not understand experts. 33 00:02:45,716 --> 00:02:48,516 Speaker 1: Now we're going to talk about how experts do and 34 00:02:48,676 --> 00:03:02,996 Speaker 1: do not understand themselves. Our entire society is like baseball 35 00:03:03,156 --> 00:03:05,196 Speaker 1: was when I wandered in to write a book about it. 36 00:03:05,916 --> 00:03:08,916 Speaker 1: We have this talent for generating new knowledge, which we 37 00:03:09,356 --> 00:03:13,796 Speaker 1: proceed to ignore. This was Bill James's experience for much 38 00:03:13,796 --> 00:03:17,396 Speaker 1: of his life. How and why did you get interested 39 00:03:17,396 --> 00:03:20,316 Speaker 1: in the game of baseball? I suppose I got interested 40 00:03:20,356 --> 00:03:22,636 Speaker 1: in baseball in the same way that many other people do. 41 00:03:24,316 --> 00:03:27,756 Speaker 1: The nineteen sixty one season was a fascinating season. And 42 00:03:27,956 --> 00:03:32,276 Speaker 1: I was eleven years old and discovered baseball cards that 43 00:03:32,396 --> 00:03:37,316 Speaker 1: spring and just got instantly hooked on them and never 44 00:03:37,396 --> 00:03:41,716 Speaker 1: quite grew out of it. Did you a play, Yes, 45 00:03:41,756 --> 00:03:44,796 Speaker 1: but not well enough to talk about I'm a very 46 00:03:44,836 --> 00:03:49,036 Speaker 1: I'm a very bad athlete. I'm not highly competitive. So 47 00:03:49,156 --> 00:03:51,556 Speaker 1: it was always your interest in baseball was always from 48 00:03:51,556 --> 00:03:55,476 Speaker 1: the point of view of a fan. Yes, the score 49 00:03:55,996 --> 00:03:59,796 Speaker 1: at the end of private Yankees too. He wasn't like 50 00:03:59,916 --> 00:04:03,196 Speaker 1: most kids. He didn't dream of playing baseball, of having 51 00:04:03,236 --> 00:04:06,676 Speaker 1: the experience, and he didn't grow out of his childhood obsession. 52 00:04:07,356 --> 00:04:11,596 Speaker 1: He grew into it. If I'd have grabbed you and said, Bill, 53 00:04:11,636 --> 00:04:14,956 Speaker 1: please explain to me, like why you're interested in this 54 00:04:15,156 --> 00:04:17,236 Speaker 1: to the extent you are, what would you have said 55 00:04:17,996 --> 00:04:21,956 Speaker 1: as to why I was interested in it? It filled 56 00:04:21,956 --> 00:04:25,796 Speaker 1: a hole in my soul somewhere. I'm not going to 57 00:04:25,876 --> 00:04:28,636 Speaker 1: push you too hard on this, but the hole in 58 00:04:28,716 --> 00:04:31,596 Speaker 1: the soul. What was the hole in the soul that 59 00:04:31,956 --> 00:04:44,076 Speaker 1: this stuff filled. I had a difficult childhood. My father 60 00:04:44,156 --> 00:04:49,196 Speaker 1: was a small town school janitor. I had no mother. Anyway, 61 00:04:49,196 --> 00:04:53,116 Speaker 1: it was very, very hard. Bill was the youngest of 62 00:04:53,196 --> 00:04:56,476 Speaker 1: six children. Their mother died of cancer when Bill was 63 00:04:56,516 --> 00:04:59,556 Speaker 1: four years old. Right after that, their father had a 64 00:04:59,636 --> 00:05:05,636 Speaker 1: nasty accident. It left him for a time paralyzed. Baseball. Well, 65 00:05:05,676 --> 00:05:09,196 Speaker 1: two things got me through it. What is baseball? And 66 00:05:09,276 --> 00:05:11,316 Speaker 1: the other is that I had a sister a year 67 00:05:11,356 --> 00:05:16,316 Speaker 1: older than me named Nell, and Nell and I really 68 00:05:16,316 --> 00:05:21,316 Speaker 1: thought of ourselves as one person. We weren't loners exactly, 69 00:05:21,396 --> 00:05:23,996 Speaker 1: but we disliked me in together, just the two of us, 70 00:05:24,476 --> 00:05:29,716 Speaker 1: we did everything together. Bill's sister Nell Ritchie. I remember 71 00:05:30,276 --> 00:05:34,796 Speaker 1: we didn't have kindergarten in our little town. We went 72 00:05:34,796 --> 00:05:37,316 Speaker 1: straight into first grade. So when I went into first grade, 73 00:05:37,796 --> 00:05:41,076 Speaker 1: I took him with me. I remember just dragging him 74 00:05:41,076 --> 00:05:43,116 Speaker 1: along to school with me, and he said on my 75 00:05:43,196 --> 00:05:46,396 Speaker 1: desk and he left it. At any point, did it 76 00:05:46,476 --> 00:05:50,596 Speaker 1: occur to you that he had an unusual view of 77 00:05:50,636 --> 00:05:57,756 Speaker 1: the world around him. Yes, you know, in the evenings 78 00:05:57,796 --> 00:05:59,996 Speaker 1: we didn't have television, so in the evenings we had 79 00:05:59,996 --> 00:06:03,636 Speaker 1: to amuse ourselves. And the way he amused himselfless. He 80 00:06:03,676 --> 00:06:07,436 Speaker 1: just had a big chief tablet and three two boxes 81 00:06:07,476 --> 00:06:12,236 Speaker 1: full of baseball cards, and he would des rite columns 82 00:06:12,796 --> 00:06:16,276 Speaker 1: of a player's name and then all these numbers out 83 00:06:16,276 --> 00:06:19,076 Speaker 1: to the side, and another name, and all these numbers 84 00:06:19,076 --> 00:06:22,436 Speaker 1: out to the side. And he did it night after 85 00:06:22,556 --> 00:06:26,396 Speaker 1: night after night. He'd have pages and pages of columns 86 00:06:26,436 --> 00:06:31,276 Speaker 1: of numbers and names. It was never just about numbers 87 00:06:31,276 --> 00:06:35,076 Speaker 1: for Bill James. He was a search for meaning. The 88 00:06:35,156 --> 00:06:37,436 Speaker 1: James family didn't have a religion, but now went out 89 00:06:37,436 --> 00:06:40,636 Speaker 1: and got one. And so in a way did Bill. 90 00:06:41,876 --> 00:06:46,556 Speaker 1: I don't know. You find one day, just the one day, 91 00:06:46,676 --> 00:06:49,236 Speaker 1: and the one thing for me is is Jesus, and 92 00:06:49,316 --> 00:06:52,276 Speaker 1: the one thing for Bill is baseball. You get the 93 00:06:52,356 --> 00:06:56,396 Speaker 1: idea to a young, effectively orphaned Bill James, Baseball was 94 00:06:56,436 --> 00:07:01,196 Speaker 1: never just baseball. When I was eleven, I was massively 95 00:07:01,236 --> 00:07:03,476 Speaker 1: confused about the nature of the universe and why it 96 00:07:03,556 --> 00:07:12,596 Speaker 1: hated me, and it became very important to me to 97 00:07:12,636 --> 00:07:16,076 Speaker 1: create an order to the universe. Baseball was the starting point. 98 00:07:16,116 --> 00:07:19,996 Speaker 1: It was It was the steak in the ground that 99 00:07:20,196 --> 00:07:24,476 Speaker 1: I used to try to make what sense I could 100 00:07:24,516 --> 00:07:33,116 Speaker 1: out of an overwhelmingly complicated universe. Why is it such 101 00:07:33,156 --> 00:07:37,716 Speaker 1: a particularly good place to do the kind of thinking 102 00:07:37,876 --> 00:07:43,356 Speaker 1: you did? Baseball is very very orderly. In baseball, the 103 00:07:43,356 --> 00:07:46,916 Speaker 1: players take turns, they stop at marked off points, point 104 00:07:46,956 --> 00:07:49,316 Speaker 1: one or point two point three, or they come home. 105 00:07:49,996 --> 00:07:53,316 Speaker 1: There are a number of outs. It's an extremely orderly 106 00:07:53,436 --> 00:07:55,676 Speaker 1: universe gaming the ball and just pushing a toy to 107 00:07:55,716 --> 00:08:00,276 Speaker 1: play with that bad arm throw the first not in time, 108 00:08:00,356 --> 00:08:06,836 Speaker 1: Johnny Law staving back, life could feel senseless, but baseball 109 00:08:06,916 --> 00:08:11,316 Speaker 1: could be fully understood and seemed to be understood. To 110 00:08:11,396 --> 00:08:14,396 Speaker 1: hear the insiders talk, you think the big things worth 111 00:08:14,436 --> 00:08:22,476 Speaker 1: knowing were already known. Year before last the nineteen sixty 112 00:08:22,516 --> 00:08:24,916 Speaker 1: three Sleeves and Washburn won five in a roll at 113 00:08:24,956 --> 00:08:29,876 Speaker 1: the start of the year. At what point in your 114 00:08:29,956 --> 00:08:34,556 Speaker 1: life do you first recall having thoughts about the game 115 00:08:35,076 --> 00:08:38,076 Speaker 1: that might be different from the thoughts that are coming 116 00:08:38,076 --> 00:08:40,516 Speaker 1: out of the mouths of announcers and sports writers and 117 00:08:41,476 --> 00:08:43,676 Speaker 1: the kind of people who talk publicly about the game. 118 00:08:45,076 --> 00:08:47,836 Speaker 1: In nineteen sixty six, there was an article in the 119 00:08:47,876 --> 00:08:52,716 Speaker 1: Sporting News saying that the Dodgers were thinking about whether 120 00:08:52,756 --> 00:08:57,716 Speaker 1: they could keep West Parker and the lineup. I don't 121 00:08:57,756 --> 00:09:00,116 Speaker 1: know who West Parker is either, but that's okay. West 122 00:09:00,156 --> 00:09:02,876 Speaker 1: Parker isn't the point here. The point is the young 123 00:09:02,956 --> 00:09:05,876 Speaker 1: Bill James and the way he mulled over what everyone 124 00:09:05,916 --> 00:09:08,956 Speaker 1: else was saying. West Parker was a very fine defense 125 00:09:09,236 --> 00:09:13,676 Speaker 1: first basement, but he didn't hit, and they were thinking 126 00:09:13,676 --> 00:09:16,036 Speaker 1: about whether they could afford to keep him in the lineup, 127 00:09:16,116 --> 00:09:19,076 Speaker 1: although they said he probably saved the Dodgers a hit 128 00:09:19,156 --> 00:09:23,676 Speaker 1: per game with his glove. It struck him that the 129 00:09:23,756 --> 00:09:26,116 Speaker 1: value of taking a hit away from the other team 130 00:09:26,516 --> 00:09:28,636 Speaker 1: was the same as getting a hit for your team. 131 00:09:29,396 --> 00:09:31,636 Speaker 1: If West Parker, in every game took a hit away 132 00:09:31,636 --> 00:09:34,516 Speaker 1: from the other team, then West Parker was in effect 133 00:09:34,556 --> 00:09:37,356 Speaker 1: a four seventy hitter. That would make him the best 134 00:09:37,436 --> 00:09:39,996 Speaker 1: hitter who ever lived. And if West Parker was the 135 00:09:39,996 --> 00:09:42,276 Speaker 1: best hitter who ever lived, you'd better keep him in 136 00:09:42,316 --> 00:09:44,836 Speaker 1: the lineup, no matter how bad he was it everything else. 137 00:09:45,436 --> 00:09:48,276 Speaker 1: I wrote a twelve to fifteen page letter and sent 138 00:09:48,396 --> 00:09:51,276 Speaker 1: it to the Sporting News, which you can imagine what 139 00:09:51,356 --> 00:09:55,316 Speaker 1: their reaction to that was. Anyway, let us say they 140 00:09:55,316 --> 00:09:59,396 Speaker 1: did not publish it. So by nineteen sixty six I 141 00:09:59,476 --> 00:10:03,596 Speaker 1: was quite certainly having chains of thought about the game 142 00:10:03,636 --> 00:10:07,156 Speaker 1: that were different than what I was being told. You 143 00:10:07,156 --> 00:10:10,156 Speaker 1: you were already thinking this is worth arguing about. Yes. 144 00:10:11,476 --> 00:10:14,516 Speaker 1: Bill was only sixteen at the time. His sister Nell 145 00:10:14,676 --> 00:10:18,076 Speaker 1: soon left home and got married. Bill went to college 146 00:10:18,316 --> 00:10:21,996 Speaker 1: at the University of Kansas. He took classes in economics, 147 00:10:22,036 --> 00:10:24,356 Speaker 1: but only because he saw that he could apply economics 148 00:10:24,356 --> 00:10:29,396 Speaker 1: to baseball. From a distance, his life seemed almost normal. 149 00:10:30,476 --> 00:10:32,636 Speaker 1: Only his sister was close enough to see that. It 150 00:10:32,676 --> 00:10:38,476 Speaker 1: wasn't if I'd asked you as he gets a bit older, like, 151 00:10:38,556 --> 00:10:40,516 Speaker 1: what do you think is going to happen to your 152 00:10:40,556 --> 00:10:43,996 Speaker 1: brother when he grows up? What do you think you 153 00:10:44,076 --> 00:10:47,676 Speaker 1: might have said? What's he going to be? They went 154 00:10:47,716 --> 00:10:51,996 Speaker 1: to college, he got his degrees, and then he didn't 155 00:10:52,036 --> 00:10:55,076 Speaker 1: do anything with him. And I remember that, you know, 156 00:10:55,116 --> 00:10:57,436 Speaker 1: I was thrown obviously by then, and I was just 157 00:10:57,556 --> 00:11:01,516 Speaker 1: puzzled in the head because he you know, he spent 158 00:11:01,596 --> 00:11:05,396 Speaker 1: all that time and energy and money getting these degrees 159 00:11:05,396 --> 00:11:08,996 Speaker 1: and he's working as a night watchman in a working 160 00:11:09,236 --> 00:11:15,076 Speaker 1: bean factory. What is a heads going on? Bill James 161 00:11:15,076 --> 00:11:17,676 Speaker 1: guarded pork and beans, and not just any pork and beans, 162 00:11:17,876 --> 00:11:20,436 Speaker 1: Stokely Van Camp's pork and beans. They've been a part 163 00:11:20,476 --> 00:11:22,676 Speaker 1: of the family for over a century. I used to 164 00:11:22,676 --> 00:11:24,276 Speaker 1: eat those beans when I was a little kid, So 165 00:11:24,316 --> 00:11:27,636 Speaker 1: it's possible Bill James was guarding my beans. One of them. 166 00:11:27,676 --> 00:11:32,636 Speaker 1: Are those great simple pleasures? Anyway, guarding these beans gave 167 00:11:32,716 --> 00:11:34,916 Speaker 1: him time and space to do what he really wanted 168 00:11:34,956 --> 00:11:39,036 Speaker 1: to do, think even more about baseball. I was not 169 00:11:39,556 --> 00:11:43,596 Speaker 1: a self confident person. I was not a polite person, 170 00:11:43,676 --> 00:11:46,156 Speaker 1: to be blunt, and I was not the kind of 171 00:11:46,236 --> 00:11:48,716 Speaker 1: person who could put on a suit and go do 172 00:11:48,796 --> 00:11:50,996 Speaker 1: a job interview and get a good job. I just 173 00:11:51,116 --> 00:11:53,916 Speaker 1: wasn't made that way. You know. One of the things 174 00:11:53,956 --> 00:11:58,356 Speaker 1: that kind of was just there in our lives was 175 00:11:58,396 --> 00:12:00,276 Speaker 1: that you just accept people the way they are, and 176 00:12:00,356 --> 00:12:02,556 Speaker 1: that was the way he was. So as long as 177 00:12:02,596 --> 00:12:04,676 Speaker 1: they don't get in any trouble and they don't borrow 178 00:12:04,716 --> 00:12:07,396 Speaker 1: money from you, you're you know, and just leave him alone. 179 00:12:07,436 --> 00:12:12,036 Speaker 1: And so we just colleged him alone. The pork and 180 00:12:12,116 --> 00:12:16,476 Speaker 1: beans must have guarded themselves, because inside Stokely Van Camp's factory, 181 00:12:16,836 --> 00:12:20,956 Speaker 1: Bill James got busy cutting and pasting baseball statistics gleaned 182 00:12:20,996 --> 00:12:24,956 Speaker 1: from newspapers. Doing with computers and spreadsheets in the cloud 183 00:12:24,956 --> 00:12:27,676 Speaker 1: would one day make far easier, but doing it, of 184 00:12:27,676 --> 00:12:31,676 Speaker 1: course without those tools, Searching for patterns in the numbers, 185 00:12:32,676 --> 00:12:36,236 Speaker 1: digging for a better understanding of his small, orderly universe 186 00:12:36,796 --> 00:12:41,436 Speaker 1: so he could write a book. There was a community 187 00:12:41,436 --> 00:12:44,916 Speaker 1: of people here who played this local product called ballpark baseball. 188 00:12:45,476 --> 00:12:47,796 Speaker 1: But that community of people who were very much like me. 189 00:12:48,516 --> 00:12:54,516 Speaker 1: That community people was maybe seventy five or one hundred people. Right, Well, 190 00:12:54,516 --> 00:12:56,516 Speaker 1: if there are seventy five or one hundred people in 191 00:12:56,596 --> 00:12:59,036 Speaker 1: Laura's Kansas who have that interest, how aboudy are there 192 00:12:59,036 --> 00:13:02,036 Speaker 1: in the country. It was a very Bill James thing 193 00:13:02,076 --> 00:13:05,396 Speaker 1: to do. Look to data to measure his potential audience. 194 00:13:05,636 --> 00:13:07,236 Speaker 1: Do the math, you know, you come up with an 195 00:13:07,276 --> 00:13:10,436 Speaker 1: answer that's around what, yeah, two three millions something I 196 00:13:10,436 --> 00:13:13,636 Speaker 1: don't know, and I suppose, well, probably it isn't that large, 197 00:13:13,716 --> 00:13:17,636 Speaker 1: but it's got to be large enough. He never imagined 198 00:13:17,676 --> 00:13:20,556 Speaker 1: a real publisher would publish his book because there was 199 00:13:20,596 --> 00:13:23,356 Speaker 1: nothing like his book, and so he need to make 200 00:13:23,396 --> 00:13:26,756 Speaker 1: a photocopy for each and every reader. He was twenty 201 00:13:26,756 --> 00:13:30,116 Speaker 1: seven years old when he finished it. Nineteen seventy seven 202 00:13:30,196 --> 00:13:35,276 Speaker 1: Baseball Abstract, not even the nineteen seventy seven baseball abstract, 203 00:13:35,596 --> 00:13:41,036 Speaker 1: just nineteen seventy seven baseball Abstract. You opened the first 204 00:13:41,076 --> 00:13:44,236 Speaker 1: page of the nineteen seventy seven abstract, which I have 205 00:13:44,236 --> 00:13:47,356 Speaker 1: in my hands right now, and it's just it's like 206 00:13:47,916 --> 00:13:52,836 Speaker 1: it's month by month batting statistics of every of all 207 00:13:52,876 --> 00:13:54,956 Speaker 1: Major leaguers who appeared in one hundred and more games 208 00:13:54,956 --> 00:13:58,636 Speaker 1: in nineteen seventy six, And it goes on to thirty pages. 209 00:13:58,716 --> 00:14:03,076 Speaker 1: It's it's just bought, it's just stats, right. But in 210 00:14:03,116 --> 00:14:05,076 Speaker 1: my mind, when I started writing the book, it was 211 00:14:05,156 --> 00:14:07,836 Speaker 1: most something much greater than that. But when I started writing, 212 00:14:07,836 --> 00:14:10,116 Speaker 1: I had no idea how difficult was to write a book. 213 00:14:10,556 --> 00:14:12,956 Speaker 1: When you're thinking someone's going to pick up this book 214 00:14:13,236 --> 00:14:16,956 Speaker 1: and be interested in it, what makes you think that 215 00:14:17,236 --> 00:14:20,996 Speaker 1: the first thirty pages, the numbers in these first thirty 216 00:14:20,996 --> 00:14:27,356 Speaker 1: pages are going to get it going. The fact that 217 00:14:27,396 --> 00:14:30,196 Speaker 1: I was slow to find my voice and my confidence 218 00:14:30,316 --> 00:14:37,116 Speaker 1: is critical to my having been successful, because I felt 219 00:14:37,716 --> 00:14:40,996 Speaker 1: strongly that no one is going to listen to me. 220 00:14:41,676 --> 00:14:44,596 Speaker 1: I always felt like in order for anyone to pay 221 00:14:44,596 --> 00:14:47,036 Speaker 1: attention to me, I had to have a specific fact 222 00:14:47,676 --> 00:14:51,076 Speaker 1: that I could point to. So you led with these facts, 223 00:14:51,436 --> 00:14:54,436 Speaker 1: which don't make for the most thrilling reading unless you're 224 00:14:54,436 --> 00:14:58,956 Speaker 1: really interested in those facts and they're your anchor. They, 225 00:14:58,956 --> 00:15:03,836 Speaker 1: I mean, they keep you honest. Yes, it took Bill 226 00:15:03,916 --> 00:15:06,996 Speaker 1: James thirty one pages of his first book before he 227 00:15:07,036 --> 00:15:10,836 Speaker 1: finally used some words, but once he did, you could 228 00:15:10,876 --> 00:15:13,756 Speaker 1: see him planting the seeds of a revolution that would 229 00:15:13,796 --> 00:15:28,916 Speaker 1: grow and upend all of baseball. Bill James baseball abstract 230 00:15:29,276 --> 00:15:32,916 Speaker 1: was not just about baseball. He was talking about the 231 00:15:32,916 --> 00:15:36,556 Speaker 1: way human beings valued other human beings. He thought the 232 00:15:36,596 --> 00:15:39,516 Speaker 1: experts of baseball were using the wrong statistics to judge 233 00:15:39,556 --> 00:15:44,836 Speaker 1: the players errors. For example, the statistic assigned to players 234 00:15:44,996 --> 00:15:49,476 Speaker 1: who made obvious mistakes on defense? What is an error? 235 00:15:50,436 --> 00:15:54,276 Speaker 1: That's Bill reading what he wrote. It is, without exception, 236 00:15:54,476 --> 00:15:57,796 Speaker 1: the only major statistic in sports, which is a record 237 00:15:57,796 --> 00:16:00,796 Speaker 1: of what an observer thinks should have been accomplished. Some 238 00:16:00,956 --> 00:16:04,916 Speaker 1: moral judgment, really in the peculiar, a quasi morality of 239 00:16:04,956 --> 00:16:09,036 Speaker 1: the locker room. That judgment was made by the official scorekeeper, 240 00:16:09,636 --> 00:16:13,436 Speaker 1: high up in some booth. That alone filled Bill James 241 00:16:13,476 --> 00:16:17,276 Speaker 1: with a righteous indignation. One has a play on a 242 00:16:17,316 --> 00:16:21,716 Speaker 1: baseball field whenever one has the anticipation, reflexes, and the 243 00:16:21,836 --> 00:16:24,436 Speaker 1: speed to get to where the play is. If one 244 00:16:24,476 --> 00:16:27,636 Speaker 1: does not have the in short talent to get to 245 00:16:27,676 --> 00:16:30,076 Speaker 1: the play, then one doesn't have a play and can't 246 00:16:30,076 --> 00:16:33,396 Speaker 1: be charged with an error. The official score doesn't charge 247 00:16:33,436 --> 00:16:36,236 Speaker 1: anybody with a lack of talent. You have to do 248 00:16:36,356 --> 00:16:38,956 Speaker 1: something right to get an error, even if the ball 249 00:16:39,036 --> 00:16:41,476 Speaker 1: is hit right to you and you were standing in 250 00:16:41,516 --> 00:16:47,436 Speaker 1: the right place to begin with. There was a lot 251 00:16:47,476 --> 00:16:49,516 Speaker 1: more of this sort of thing in Bill's first book, 252 00:16:49,876 --> 00:16:53,516 Speaker 1: a lot of its seemingly obvious yet original and startling. 253 00:16:54,156 --> 00:16:56,476 Speaker 1: But to let people know of his book's existence, Bill 254 00:16:56,476 --> 00:16:59,076 Speaker 1: could afford only a small ad in the Sporting News. 255 00:16:59,756 --> 00:17:01,836 Speaker 1: The ad even promised readers that they could have their 256 00:17:01,836 --> 00:17:04,956 Speaker 1: money back if they didn't like it. I mean by 257 00:17:04,956 --> 00:17:07,396 Speaker 1: a second edition of the book sold three hundred copies, 258 00:17:07,676 --> 00:17:11,196 Speaker 1: and I was like, wow, three hundred copies. I had 259 00:17:11,316 --> 00:17:14,676 Speaker 1: very low expectations that I was surprised that there were 260 00:17:14,756 --> 00:17:17,796 Speaker 1: so many people who were interested in this. And at 261 00:17:17,836 --> 00:17:22,036 Speaker 1: what point do you realize that, like, the key to 262 00:17:22,156 --> 00:17:26,196 Speaker 1: having to thinking about baseball in a new and interesting 263 00:17:26,236 --> 00:17:29,996 Speaker 1: way is going to involve a more sophisticated use of 264 00:17:29,996 --> 00:17:35,316 Speaker 1: statistics than most sports writers and broadcasters and so on 265 00:17:35,596 --> 00:17:38,876 Speaker 1: use them. What I realized was that a lot of 266 00:17:38,876 --> 00:17:43,876 Speaker 1: what people said to be true about baseball was mathematically impossible. 267 00:17:44,436 --> 00:17:47,116 Speaker 1: And by the way, this is still true today that 268 00:17:47,636 --> 00:17:52,236 Speaker 1: people in broadcasting baseball games will routinely make statements which 269 00:17:52,236 --> 00:17:56,596 Speaker 1: are mathematically impossible. I always saw those again, not by 270 00:17:56,636 --> 00:18:03,356 Speaker 1: discipline or work, but just instinctively. Every year, for the 271 00:18:03,396 --> 00:18:06,636 Speaker 1: next five years, Bill wrote his baseball abstract and took 272 00:18:06,716 --> 00:18:09,916 Speaker 1: orders for it. He and his wife Susie, photocopy it 273 00:18:09,996 --> 00:18:14,236 Speaker 1: and mail it out, and his audience grew. A movement 274 00:18:14,236 --> 00:18:17,716 Speaker 1: of like minded souls gathered around him. He gave the 275 00:18:17,796 --> 00:18:22,676 Speaker 1: movement a name, saber Metrics. Saber was an acronym for 276 00:18:22,756 --> 00:18:28,076 Speaker 1: the Society for American Baseball Research. Metrics was well metrics. 277 00:18:32,596 --> 00:18:35,076 Speaker 1: Fans of saber Metrics all had one thing in common. 278 00:18:35,636 --> 00:18:39,956 Speaker 1: They were baseball outsiders. Baseball insiders. The players and managers 279 00:18:40,036 --> 00:18:42,356 Speaker 1: took zero interest in what Bill James had to say. 280 00:18:43,276 --> 00:18:46,036 Speaker 1: On the other hand, baseball fans applied what they learned 281 00:18:46,036 --> 00:18:48,876 Speaker 1: from Bill to build teams in their fantasy leagues, and 282 00:18:48,956 --> 00:18:52,996 Speaker 1: they were killing it. Then one day Bill James got 283 00:18:52,996 --> 00:18:56,956 Speaker 1: a phone call from the agent of a major league 284 00:18:56,996 --> 00:19:02,316 Speaker 1: player entering arbitration. Arbitration is a bizarre process in baseball. 285 00:19:02,756 --> 00:19:04,876 Speaker 1: The player and the team appear before a panel of 286 00:19:04,916 --> 00:19:08,196 Speaker 1: three judges to argue about his next year's salary. You 287 00:19:08,316 --> 00:19:11,996 Speaker 1: get into him arbitration case. What's the arbitrator want to know? 288 00:19:12,916 --> 00:19:14,916 Speaker 1: This side says his player is really good, and the 289 00:19:14,956 --> 00:19:17,116 Speaker 1: side says he's not so good. The side says he's 290 00:19:17,156 --> 00:19:19,196 Speaker 1: comparable to the set of players, But what are the 291 00:19:19,236 --> 00:19:22,356 Speaker 1: facts here? The player in this case, a pitcher, needed 292 00:19:22,396 --> 00:19:25,076 Speaker 1: an expert to help him counteract his team's argument that 293 00:19:25,156 --> 00:19:28,236 Speaker 1: he was worse than he claimed. His one loss record 294 00:19:28,276 --> 00:19:31,676 Speaker 1: was nine and sixteen, but his offense's support had been 295 00:19:31,756 --> 00:19:34,876 Speaker 1: very poor. In other words, my pitcher only seems to 296 00:19:34,916 --> 00:19:39,116 Speaker 1: suck because your team sucks, And we introduced an exhibit 297 00:19:39,476 --> 00:19:44,436 Speaker 1: showing that his offense suport had been normal. Is one 298 00:19:44,476 --> 00:19:51,036 Speaker 1: loss record probably been about fourteen and eleven. It wasn't 299 00:19:51,076 --> 00:19:54,876 Speaker 1: necessarily the pitcher's fault that his team had lost, anymore 300 00:19:54,916 --> 00:19:57,636 Speaker 1: than it was necessarily a mother's fault that her kids 301 00:19:57,636 --> 00:20:01,556 Speaker 1: had turned out badly. To evaluate any pitcher or any mom, 302 00:20:02,156 --> 00:20:04,836 Speaker 1: you had to think some more about it. Bill James. 303 00:20:04,836 --> 00:20:07,396 Speaker 1: Next exhibit in the pitcher's defense made the argument that 304 00:20:07,476 --> 00:20:10,316 Speaker 1: his one loss record was simply a byproduct of the 305 00:20:10,396 --> 00:20:12,756 Speaker 1: number of runs his team scored while he was pitching 306 00:20:13,196 --> 00:20:16,516 Speaker 1: and the number of runs they allowed. It's basic now, right, 307 00:20:17,116 --> 00:20:20,116 Speaker 1: something everybody knows. But at the time there's like, oh, 308 00:20:20,156 --> 00:20:22,276 Speaker 1: so that they had no response to that at all. 309 00:20:22,356 --> 00:20:27,036 Speaker 1: So it's kind of great. It's kind of great that 310 00:20:27,076 --> 00:20:30,956 Speaker 1: their ignorance is actually honest. That there is they actually 311 00:20:31,156 --> 00:20:33,996 Speaker 1: they aren't thinking the other side the end, the people 312 00:20:33,996 --> 00:20:36,996 Speaker 1: who are running the baseball team actually aren't thinking. That's right, 313 00:20:37,196 --> 00:20:40,156 Speaker 1: they weren't. But why were Why weren't they thinking? Michael? 314 00:20:40,276 --> 00:20:43,956 Speaker 1: They weren't thinking because they thought they knew. And that's 315 00:20:44,036 --> 00:20:48,316 Speaker 1: that's what destroys me and all of us keeps this 316 00:20:48,436 --> 00:20:51,836 Speaker 1: from doing the things we could do. Is they thinking 317 00:20:51,876 --> 00:20:55,396 Speaker 1: that we know things that we don't actually know. This 318 00:20:55,596 --> 00:20:58,916 Speaker 1: total outsider who was just trying to understand some little 319 00:20:58,916 --> 00:21:02,596 Speaker 1: corner of the universe was creating smarter ways to value 320 00:21:02,596 --> 00:21:07,716 Speaker 1: athletes just as athletes were becoming seriously valuable, just as 321 00:21:07,716 --> 00:21:10,956 Speaker 1: baseball salaries were going from tens of thousands of dollars 322 00:21:10,996 --> 00:21:15,436 Speaker 1: to millions of dollars. The insiders still ignored Bill James, 323 00:21:15,716 --> 00:21:19,276 Speaker 1: but the outsiders loved it, and in nineteen eighty two, 324 00:21:19,476 --> 00:21:24,276 Speaker 1: a real publisher offered him a book contract. Baseball is 325 00:21:24,396 --> 00:21:27,556 Speaker 1: drowning in records, and people think about them and talk 326 00:21:27,596 --> 00:21:30,516 Speaker 1: about them and write about them a great deal. Why 327 00:21:30,516 --> 00:21:34,476 Speaker 1: doesn't anybody use them? I really don't know, but that, 328 00:21:34,636 --> 00:21:38,756 Speaker 1: in essence is what I am about. Here Bill was 329 00:21:38,796 --> 00:21:43,036 Speaker 1: now publishing without a photocopy or staples. His audience grew 330 00:21:43,076 --> 00:21:47,596 Speaker 1: from thousands to hundreds of thousands, all baseball outsiders. He 331 00:21:47,676 --> 00:21:50,316 Speaker 1: saw no sign that anyone inside a major league front 332 00:21:50,316 --> 00:21:53,396 Speaker 1: office was listening to what he was saying until these 333 00:21:53,436 --> 00:21:59,836 Speaker 1: guys came along. Why have all this by dood, Bill odious, 334 00:21:59,916 --> 00:22:05,676 Speaker 1: by what he's Andretten start the celebration. The athleticscept on 335 00:22:05,916 --> 00:22:11,596 Speaker 1: my worst, the Oakland a people inside their front office 336 00:22:11,636 --> 00:22:15,836 Speaker 1: had been reading Bill James without telling anyone. They didn't 337 00:22:15,836 --> 00:22:17,996 Speaker 1: have as much money as the other teams, yet they 338 00:22:18,076 --> 00:22:20,956 Speaker 1: won more games. I went to see the team to 339 00:22:20,996 --> 00:22:23,396 Speaker 1: try to figure out how they did it. The answer 340 00:22:23,476 --> 00:22:25,796 Speaker 1: was simply that they were taking Bill James's thinking out 341 00:22:25,836 --> 00:22:29,436 Speaker 1: onto the field. The book I wrote about the Moneyball 342 00:22:29,836 --> 00:22:33,916 Speaker 1: wasn't just about baseball. It was about expertise. How this 343 00:22:34,076 --> 00:22:36,436 Speaker 1: new knowledge enabled you to run circles around the rest 344 00:22:36,476 --> 00:22:39,516 Speaker 1: of baseball. He gets on base alone, Rocco, Do I 345 00:22:39,636 --> 00:22:44,636 Speaker 1: care if it's a walk or hit? Pete? I do not. 346 00:22:45,956 --> 00:22:48,836 Speaker 1: My book popularized what Bill James had led the Oakland 347 00:22:48,876 --> 00:22:52,196 Speaker 1: A's to do. Then Brad Pitt popularized the book by 348 00:22:52,276 --> 00:22:54,876 Speaker 1: making a movie out of it. In that version, Bill 349 00:22:54,956 --> 00:22:57,596 Speaker 1: James wound up on the cutting room floor. In the movie, 350 00:22:57,636 --> 00:22:59,676 Speaker 1: he shows up in just a single photo and a 351 00:22:59,756 --> 00:23:05,996 Speaker 1: few lines. People are overlooked for a variety of biased 352 00:23:06,076 --> 00:23:12,836 Speaker 1: reasons and perceived flaws age, years, personality, Bill James and 353 00:23:13,036 --> 00:23:17,516 Speaker 1: Mathmax cut straight through that it wasn't that Bill James 354 00:23:17,636 --> 00:23:20,236 Speaker 1: was completely unknown. I mean a lot of people knew 355 00:23:20,236 --> 00:23:23,156 Speaker 1: who he was even before the movie came out. He'd 356 00:23:23,196 --> 00:23:26,516 Speaker 1: had a cameo on The Simpsons. I made baseball as 357 00:23:26,596 --> 00:23:31,716 Speaker 1: much fun as doing your Texans funny not true, opposite 358 00:23:31,756 --> 00:23:34,276 Speaker 1: of true. But like a lot of people who fire 359 00:23:34,356 --> 00:23:37,236 Speaker 1: the first shot, Bill was sort of left behind by 360 00:23:37,276 --> 00:23:40,996 Speaker 1: the revolution. He was eventually hired by the Boston Red Sox, 361 00:23:41,356 --> 00:23:45,076 Speaker 1: and he became woven into the game, and Moneyball became 362 00:23:45,116 --> 00:23:47,756 Speaker 1: a shorthand for a new way of doing things in 363 00:23:47,916 --> 00:23:51,556 Speaker 1: every corner of American life. It's being called moneyball for 364 00:23:51,676 --> 00:23:55,196 Speaker 1: the restaurant industry. Will show you how big data analytics 365 00:23:55,356 --> 00:23:59,116 Speaker 1: is transforming the way you experienced fine dining. Florida Senator 366 00:23:59,196 --> 00:24:02,756 Speaker 1: Marco Rubio announced his campaign yesterday, and fundraisers are already 367 00:24:02,796 --> 00:24:06,516 Speaker 1: calling him the Moneyball candidate. Tracking serial killers using math 368 00:24:06,596 --> 00:24:10,556 Speaker 1: and statistics. It's kind of like Moneyball from there we 369 00:24:10,636 --> 00:24:15,836 Speaker 1: got after you wrote Moneyball, then there was a Bill 370 00:24:15,916 --> 00:24:22,196 Speaker 1: James of everything there was. I mean, there was somebody 371 00:24:22,356 --> 00:24:26,476 Speaker 1: trying to apply my ways of thinking to every subject 372 00:24:26,556 --> 00:24:30,556 Speaker 1: on earth. Did you find some of that interesting or 373 00:24:30,596 --> 00:24:32,516 Speaker 1: did you think that it was a false analogy, that 374 00:24:32,596 --> 00:24:34,516 Speaker 1: there really wasn't a way to do what you did 375 00:24:34,596 --> 00:24:37,316 Speaker 1: with baseball, well, lots of other things. A lot of 376 00:24:37,356 --> 00:24:39,556 Speaker 1: it seemed interesting, but I was always frustrated that I 377 00:24:39,636 --> 00:24:42,196 Speaker 1: couldn't help with it. A lot of people would ask 378 00:24:42,276 --> 00:24:44,636 Speaker 1: me to help with serious problems about things, and I 379 00:24:45,276 --> 00:24:48,596 Speaker 1: know people people would ask what I thought about some 380 00:24:48,756 --> 00:24:52,396 Speaker 1: cancer research they were doing, literally, and it's very you know, 381 00:24:52,516 --> 00:24:54,556 Speaker 1: my parents die of cancer. I wish I could help here, 382 00:24:54,596 --> 00:24:56,876 Speaker 1: but I don't know what the hell you're talking about. 383 00:24:57,236 --> 00:25:00,196 Speaker 1: People wanted you to be an all purpose expert. Yes, 384 00:25:01,356 --> 00:25:05,716 Speaker 1: they figure you crack baseball, you can crack cancer, well right, 385 00:25:08,756 --> 00:25:10,876 Speaker 1: but he I didn't even crack baseball, at least to 386 00:25:10,956 --> 00:25:15,916 Speaker 1: his way of thinking. Even an orderly universe alluded perfect understanding. 387 00:25:17,116 --> 00:25:20,756 Speaker 1: For some reason, people couldn't accept that Bill's growing band 388 00:25:20,836 --> 00:25:23,436 Speaker 1: of followers wanted to believe that he'd settled more questions 389 00:25:23,516 --> 00:25:34,876 Speaker 1: than he actually had. I almost want to read you 390 00:25:34,956 --> 00:25:36,796 Speaker 1: some of it, but I assume you kind of remember it. 391 00:25:37,516 --> 00:25:39,156 Speaker 1: I sort of have to remember it. You sort of 392 00:25:39,196 --> 00:25:42,556 Speaker 1: have to remember it. But I'm gonna read a paragraph 393 00:25:42,716 --> 00:25:45,716 Speaker 1: just to get you back in the spirit. Okay, that's 394 00:25:45,836 --> 00:25:50,476 Speaker 1: me thumbing through nineteen eighty eight Baseball Abstract. The Bill 395 00:25:50,556 --> 00:25:53,596 Speaker 1: James of nineteen eighty eight is at his peak. He's 396 00:25:53,596 --> 00:25:56,636 Speaker 1: got a publisher and sells lots of books. He's become 397 00:25:56,676 --> 00:25:59,236 Speaker 1: a kind of guru, and he's about to tell his 398 00:25:59,356 --> 00:26:03,796 Speaker 1: readers to piss off. He's done writing for them. And 399 00:26:03,876 --> 00:26:06,476 Speaker 1: I only read one little passage because it's pretty great. 400 00:26:07,236 --> 00:26:10,236 Speaker 1: But whereas I used to write one year jackass letter 401 00:26:10,316 --> 00:26:13,076 Speaker 1: a year, I now write maybe thirty. I hate to 402 00:26:13,116 --> 00:26:14,636 Speaker 1: say it, and I hope you're not one of them. 403 00:26:14,956 --> 00:26:16,916 Speaker 1: But I am encountering more and more of my own 404 00:26:17,036 --> 00:26:20,036 Speaker 1: readers that I don't even like, nitwits, who gloam onto 405 00:26:20,116 --> 00:26:23,476 Speaker 1: something superficial in the book and misunderstand its underlying message. 406 00:26:24,196 --> 00:26:27,196 Speaker 1: And I don't remember writing that at all, but I 407 00:26:27,276 --> 00:26:32,996 Speaker 1: haven't read it since I wrote it, Breaking the wand 408 00:26:33,156 --> 00:26:37,076 Speaker 1: he called this long forgotten essay in it, Bill James 409 00:26:37,116 --> 00:26:40,796 Speaker 1: announced that he was retiring from magic. He hadn't lost 410 00:26:40,836 --> 00:26:44,076 Speaker 1: his interest in baseball. He lost his interest in the revolution. 411 00:26:45,956 --> 00:26:47,956 Speaker 1: And I don't want to steer the witness, but the 412 00:26:48,076 --> 00:26:51,076 Speaker 1: thing that I'm just interested in the way you might 413 00:26:51,156 --> 00:26:56,956 Speaker 1: have felt misused, misunderstood, like this thing that you started 414 00:26:56,996 --> 00:27:00,956 Speaker 1: had metastasized into something that you didn't quite like. Yes, 415 00:27:01,156 --> 00:27:03,276 Speaker 1: that was true at the time, and it still is. 416 00:27:03,556 --> 00:27:06,476 Speaker 1: A lot of modern sabord metrics is stuff that I 417 00:27:06,556 --> 00:27:09,716 Speaker 1: don't like and wish people would stop doing. Stop saying 418 00:27:10,076 --> 00:27:13,516 Speaker 1: that's quite true. What kind of saber metrics do you 419 00:27:13,556 --> 00:27:18,796 Speaker 1: wish people would stop doing? Okay, actually, I'll spare you 420 00:27:18,876 --> 00:27:22,396 Speaker 1: the details of the saber metrics. The gist of Bill's 421 00:27:22,436 --> 00:27:25,116 Speaker 1: complaint about his own followers was that they were using 422 00:27:25,236 --> 00:27:28,956 Speaker 1: numbers to persuade themselves and others that they knew more 423 00:27:29,036 --> 00:27:32,316 Speaker 1: than they actually knew, especially when it came to valuing 424 00:27:32,396 --> 00:27:36,316 Speaker 1: human beings. Very early in his career, he himself had 425 00:27:36,396 --> 00:27:41,076 Speaker 1: hinted at the problem the baseball abstract. For three years 426 00:27:41,516 --> 00:27:45,316 Speaker 1: has reverentially avoided rating people. It has been almost a 427 00:27:45,396 --> 00:27:47,516 Speaker 1: point of honor for a rating is a form of 428 00:27:47,596 --> 00:27:50,276 Speaker 1: an opinion. If it has growned out of a formula, 429 00:27:50,396 --> 00:27:54,996 Speaker 1: it becomes an opinion expressed in numbers. Bill himself had 430 00:27:55,076 --> 00:27:57,276 Speaker 1: planted the seeds for an idea of summing up a 431 00:27:57,316 --> 00:28:01,356 Speaker 1: player's value in a single number, but while he had 432 00:28:01,436 --> 00:28:05,676 Speaker 1: serious reservations about it, his followers did not. They ran 433 00:28:05,796 --> 00:28:09,436 Speaker 1: with it, creating a stat called war or wins above 434 00:28:09,516 --> 00:28:12,476 Speaker 1: replacement values. You and Bill James, she could break down 435 00:28:12,516 --> 00:28:17,396 Speaker 1: your little numbers. Take I'll take Bill James. Hey, let 436 00:28:17,476 --> 00:28:20,596 Speaker 1: me give you something dog. All right, objective methodology wins 437 00:28:20,636 --> 00:28:23,756 Speaker 1: above replacement. But never mind what that means. Forget about 438 00:28:23,796 --> 00:28:28,076 Speaker 1: baseball instead, think of all those numbers that substitute for 439 00:28:28,276 --> 00:28:34,996 Speaker 1: understanding all sorts of things, wines, universities, podcasts. We now 440 00:28:35,116 --> 00:28:38,276 Speaker 1: quantify and then move on as if there's nothing more 441 00:28:38,316 --> 00:28:41,276 Speaker 1: to say, when there's often a lot more to say. 442 00:28:42,036 --> 00:28:46,756 Speaker 1: Baseball has war, Wall Street has VAR. VAR or value 443 00:28:46,796 --> 00:28:49,276 Speaker 1: at risk, was a single number dreamed up by financial 444 00:28:49,356 --> 00:28:51,996 Speaker 1: quants in the late nineteen eighties so that a Wall 445 00:28:52,076 --> 00:28:55,836 Speaker 1: Street CEO could supposedly see how much money his traders 446 00:28:55,916 --> 00:28:59,676 Speaker 1: might make or lose in a single day. CEOs began 447 00:28:59,716 --> 00:29:02,516 Speaker 1: to trust VAR over the advice of their own traders. 448 00:29:03,036 --> 00:29:05,756 Speaker 1: After all, VAR was a number that claimed ninety nine 449 00:29:05,796 --> 00:29:09,396 Speaker 1: percent accuracy, a low VAR number met you were doing fine. 450 00:29:10,476 --> 00:29:13,396 Speaker 1: Var numbers were low for Wall Street firms right up 451 00:29:13,436 --> 00:29:16,276 Speaker 1: to two thousand and eight, and then the risks that 452 00:29:16,396 --> 00:29:20,396 Speaker 1: the traders took blew up the global financial system. The 453 00:29:20,556 --> 00:29:24,676 Speaker 1: problems nothing numbers, obviously, it's how people use them. The 454 00:29:24,836 --> 00:29:28,076 Speaker 1: numbers start out as tools for thinking, they wind up 455 00:29:28,156 --> 00:29:31,156 Speaker 1: replacing thought. What I was always trying to do is 456 00:29:31,236 --> 00:29:34,756 Speaker 1: open up the discussion to more ways of looking at 457 00:29:34,796 --> 00:29:40,956 Speaker 1: the problem, and war or any other absolute measure has 458 00:29:40,996 --> 00:29:44,636 Speaker 1: the opposite effect. It's not opening up the discussion. It's saying, Okay, 459 00:29:44,676 --> 00:29:48,476 Speaker 1: we're done. We're done. Bill watched as his followers found 460 00:29:48,516 --> 00:29:51,116 Speaker 1: what they supposed were the final answers to some question, 461 00:29:51,756 --> 00:29:54,676 Speaker 1: rather than the start of a new question, as they 462 00:29:54,716 --> 00:29:57,756 Speaker 1: forgot all over again how hard it is to really 463 00:29:57,916 --> 00:30:02,316 Speaker 1: know anything, even in a small, orderly universe like baseball. 464 00:30:03,636 --> 00:30:05,836 Speaker 1: When I came to see you in Lawrence, when I 465 00:30:05,876 --> 00:30:07,956 Speaker 1: was working on Moneyball, you had that picture on your 466 00:30:07,996 --> 00:30:11,236 Speaker 1: wall of a baseball field, and you said, that's a 467 00:30:11,316 --> 00:30:13,996 Speaker 1: field of ignorance. We think we know so much, but 468 00:30:14,116 --> 00:30:17,076 Speaker 1: actually what we know is about the size of the infield. 469 00:30:17,436 --> 00:30:18,956 Speaker 1: Do you still feel that way. Do you feel like 470 00:30:19,276 --> 00:30:21,756 Speaker 1: most of what there is to know about what goes 471 00:30:21,796 --> 00:30:23,516 Speaker 1: on in a baseball field and the people who play 472 00:30:23,556 --> 00:30:27,476 Speaker 1: the game is sort of known? I feel that way 473 00:30:27,516 --> 00:30:31,396 Speaker 1: more than now that I did. That baseball had been 474 00:30:31,436 --> 00:30:33,756 Speaker 1: a small part of the world in which Bill James 475 00:30:33,916 --> 00:30:36,996 Speaker 1: might seek understanding. It was that for him when he 476 00:30:37,116 --> 00:30:40,436 Speaker 1: was eleven years old. It was still that for him 477 00:30:40,636 --> 00:30:44,636 Speaker 1: after seventy. Every human being on earth is trying to 478 00:30:44,716 --> 00:30:47,636 Speaker 1: figure out how the world works all the time, and 479 00:30:47,796 --> 00:30:51,636 Speaker 1: that the moment you're born, you're pitched into this search 480 00:30:51,756 --> 00:30:55,276 Speaker 1: for understanding of the world, and that effort to understand 481 00:30:55,356 --> 00:31:00,396 Speaker 1: the world dominates your life every day. It's more pervasive 482 00:31:00,516 --> 00:31:03,516 Speaker 1: than the need for food, because once you eat, you 483 00:31:03,596 --> 00:31:06,556 Speaker 1: don't care about that. It's more pervasive than the desire 484 00:31:06,596 --> 00:31:10,116 Speaker 1: for sex. It's there all the time. You're always trying 485 00:31:10,196 --> 00:31:13,756 Speaker 1: to figure out the world. But the world is vastly 486 00:31:13,836 --> 00:31:17,036 Speaker 1: more complicated than the human mind, so you can never 487 00:31:17,356 --> 00:31:21,476 Speaker 1: do it. So in that environment where everybody is trying 488 00:31:21,516 --> 00:31:24,716 Speaker 1: all the time to figure out the world, but you 489 00:31:24,836 --> 00:31:29,236 Speaker 1: can't do it, what happens people latch on to explanations 490 00:31:29,316 --> 00:31:35,356 Speaker 1: for things that seem to work. Bill James created a movement. 491 00:31:36,076 --> 00:31:39,916 Speaker 1: That movement has replaced one expert with another. But the 492 00:31:39,996 --> 00:31:42,956 Speaker 1: point of the movement wasn't simply to replace the expert. 493 00:31:43,956 --> 00:31:45,996 Speaker 1: The point was to change the spirit in which the 494 00:31:46,076 --> 00:31:52,596 Speaker 1: expert operates, to unsettle their explanations. Whenever I've asked what's 495 00:31:52,676 --> 00:31:55,796 Speaker 1: going to happen? I always want to answer, although sometimes 496 00:31:55,876 --> 00:31:59,476 Speaker 1: I now remember not to, I always want to answer. 497 00:31:59,596 --> 00:32:02,436 Speaker 1: How can you possibly be stupid enough to ask that question? 498 00:32:02,556 --> 00:32:06,116 Speaker 1: I don't know what's going to happen? Idea It's just 499 00:32:06,316 --> 00:32:08,516 Speaker 1: not the nature of the world, but is the nature 500 00:32:08,556 --> 00:32:12,396 Speaker 1: of people that most of them will answer the question 501 00:32:12,476 --> 00:32:16,956 Speaker 1: even if they don't know the answer. Yes, A boy 502 00:32:17,076 --> 00:32:21,636 Speaker 1: wanders into a small and seemingly orderly universe, a universe 503 00:32:21,716 --> 00:32:24,996 Speaker 1: that can be understood, a universe in which no one's 504 00:32:25,036 --> 00:32:28,436 Speaker 1: mother has to die, a universe in which the experts 505 00:32:28,556 --> 00:32:32,276 Speaker 1: seem to know everything there is to know. The young 506 00:32:32,356 --> 00:32:34,476 Speaker 1: man teaches us that much of what the experts think 507 00:32:34,556 --> 00:32:39,356 Speaker 1: they know is wrong. That lesson is hard enough to absorb, 508 00:32:40,076 --> 00:32:42,956 Speaker 1: but there was a bigger one behind it, one that 509 00:32:43,036 --> 00:32:53,116 Speaker 1: we failed thus far to learn. Against the Rules is 510 00:32:53,156 --> 00:32:56,196 Speaker 1: written and hosted by me Michael Lewis and produced by 511 00:32:56,316 --> 00:33:00,636 Speaker 1: Catherine Gerardo and Lydia Jeanecott. Julia Barton is our editor, 512 00:33:00,916 --> 00:33:04,956 Speaker 1: with additional editing by Audrey Dilling. Beth Johnson is our 513 00:33:04,996 --> 00:33:09,396 Speaker 1: fact checker, and Mia Lobell executive produces. Our music is 514 00:33:09,436 --> 00:33:13,956 Speaker 1: created by John Evans and Matthias boss A Stellwagon Symphonette. 515 00:33:14,596 --> 00:33:18,596 Speaker 1: We record our show at Berkeley Advanced Media Studios, expertly 516 00:33:18,676 --> 00:33:23,756 Speaker 1: helmed by Tofa Ruth. Thanks also to Jacob Weisberg, Heather Fame, 517 00:33:24,196 --> 00:33:29,876 Speaker 1: John Snars, Carly Migliori, Christina Sullivan, Eric Sandler, Maggie Taylor, 518 00:33:30,276 --> 00:33:36,236 Speaker 1: Nicole Morrano, Royston Deserve, Daniella Lacan, Mary Beth Smith, and 519 00:33:36,476 --> 00:33:41,076 Speaker 1: Jason Gambrel. Against the Rules is a production of Pushkin Industries. 520 00:33:41,796 --> 00:33:44,956 Speaker 1: Keep in touch, sign up for Pushkin's newsletter at pushkin 521 00:33:45,036 --> 00:33:49,276 Speaker 1: dot Fm, or follow at Pushkin Pods. To find more 522 00:33:49,316 --> 00:33:54,156 Speaker 1: Pushkin podcasts, listen on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or 523 00:33:54,236 --> 00:34:02,916 Speaker 1: wherever you listen to podcasts. Don't you think, Michael, Don't 524 00:34:02,916 --> 00:34:08,076 Speaker 1: you think that young people always vastly underestimated how easy 525 00:34:08,116 --> 00:34:10,876 Speaker 1: it is to change the world. I think young people 526 00:34:10,876 --> 00:34:12,516 Speaker 1: will assume that the world is just what it is, 527 00:34:12,596 --> 00:34:15,556 Speaker 1: and they don't actually realize how easy it is to 528 00:34:15,916 --> 00:34:20,156 Speaker 1: change many things. It's almost the opposite of what most 529 00:34:20,196 --> 00:34:22,396 Speaker 1: people would say, because young people seem to be the 530 00:34:22,476 --> 00:34:25,236 Speaker 1: ones who are agitating to change the world. But I 531 00:34:25,356 --> 00:34:28,596 Speaker 1: think you might be right. I think so. What you're 532 00:34:28,636 --> 00:34:31,716 Speaker 1: saying is you underestimated the effect on the world you 533 00:34:31,796 --> 00:34:33,716 Speaker 1: might have very much. Yes,