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Speaker 1: Good luck for the most beautiful game.

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Speaker 2: Do us proud red a lot.

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Speaker 1: They're up running a game so smoothe so sweet, splendid sixteen,

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Speaker 1: just glorious execution. Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty

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Speaker 1: percent effort four thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that?

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Speaker 1: Shop with mind bod, buddy, and that's why you see

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Speaker 1: your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements the.

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Speaker 2: Most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 1: Nobody picts them. God shut up, I'm trying again. The

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Speaker 1: all it's left to one of the wide eyed drill diffused?

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Speaker 1: How old Earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 4: Hello, everybody, Welcome back to Wondergul, the red hot soccer

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Speaker 4: betting podcast from the Action Network. My name is Michael Eba.

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Speaker 4: I am your host, and joining me as always are

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Speaker 4: my friends and colleagues Anthony Dubundo and BJ Cunningham. Ten

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Speaker 4: more Premier League games to talk to, then we'll jump around.

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Speaker 4: You're up. Pick out our best bets in the other

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Speaker 4: major leagues, give out our favorite underdogs and our best

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Speaker 4: bet in the Premier League. But there's only one place

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Speaker 4: to start. A relegation six pointer between Manchester United and

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Speaker 4: Liverpool Monday night football three pm at Old Trafford the

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Speaker 4: Theater of Dreams. United plus four to twenty five at

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Speaker 4: home Liverpool minus one seventy the draws plus three thirty.

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Speaker 4: I alluded to it in our last episode. Sometimes a

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Speaker 4: plan just goes well. And before the season started I said,

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Speaker 4: if United really, you know, shits the bed against Brighton

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Speaker 4: and Brentford, which happened, you're going to get a great

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Speaker 4: price to go against the Liverpool team that I just

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Speaker 4: don't think or didn't think was going to be at

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Speaker 4: the races yet this season, and they haven't been. And

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Speaker 4: that's what's happened here Bja United at better than four

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Speaker 4: to one at home and I know they're playing Liverpool,

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Speaker 4: but this is not your older brother's Liverpool from the

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Speaker 4: past two seasons so far.

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Speaker 2: Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I mean, what's funny is if you're on social media

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Speaker 1: all today, like Manchester United has been interested I think

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Speaker 1: seventeen different guys in the last seven in the last

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Speaker 1: three days, which is kind of crazy. So clearly ten

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Speaker 1: hag or whoever is basically saying like, hey, I can't

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Speaker 1: play with the current guys that I have. I can't

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Speaker 1: run my system, so now it's up for you to

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Speaker 1: United being essentially scramble mode and overpay like drastically for

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Speaker 1: a lot of guys. I mean Casamiro is a big one.

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Speaker 1: They're going to double his salary. They're going to pay

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Speaker 1: fifty million pounds for a thirty year old central midfielder,

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Speaker 1: which is kind of crazy. But you saw against Brentford

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Speaker 1: they just they don't play well against teams that can

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Speaker 1: press them. I mean they don't have a ball controlling

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Speaker 1: center for midfield, like I've said I don't know three

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Speaker 1: or four times already, but they don't have it, Like

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Speaker 1: they don't have a guy who can playund pressure. Scott

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Speaker 1: Mactooney gave one away which ended up being a goal,

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Speaker 1: and all four goals against Prentford were essentially off of mistakes.

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Speaker 1: Like you look at the final xget it was pretty close.

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Speaker 1: I think it was one point six to one point one,

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Speaker 1: like not that big of a gap. United controlled a

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Speaker 1: ton of possession. A lot of that had to do

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Speaker 1: with game state. But now you go play Liverpool, who,

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Speaker 1: I'll be honest, I would go on the other way.

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Speaker 1: I would have said before, I'll be honest, before the

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Speaker 1: Liverpool Crystal Palace match happened, and even before you know

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Speaker 1: Thiago got injured. I was looking at taking Liverpool team

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Speaker 1: total over two and a half and you know plus

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Speaker 1: one twenty five plus one thirty. Well, things have kind

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Speaker 1: of changed now that Dorwin Nunia has got a red

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Speaker 1: card for mi No's questionable, so Joet is still injured.

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Speaker 1: Now you have questions like who's going to be up

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Speaker 1: top for Liverpool. Obviously they still have Diaz and they

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Speaker 1: still have Sala. But I told you about the splits

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Speaker 1: with Thiago. I mean it's it was still very relevant.

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Speaker 1: And the biggest thing about Liverpool is I know a

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Speaker 1: lot of people are saying, yes, they were really dominant

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Speaker 1: against Fulham Crystal Palace, were they Because no, and if

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Speaker 1: you look at the final XG, No, they actually weren't

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Speaker 1: very dominant. They were dominate in terms of possession, in

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Speaker 1: terms of shots, final XG against Crystal Palace is one

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Speaker 1: point seven to one point five. At the end of

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Speaker 1: the day, all that matters is the chances you create

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Speaker 1: at the end of the end of it. So in

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Speaker 1: theory they weren't. Yeah, possession wise, they were dominant, but

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Speaker 1: in terms of chances the actual quality of their chances created, No,

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Speaker 1: they actually weren't that dominant, so a one to one

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Speaker 1: draw was actually probably the right score. So I'm passing

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Speaker 1: on this one. There's no chance in hell I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: play United now or really ever this season unless they

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Speaker 1: bring in a ton of new players. So I mean

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Speaker 1: Liverpool is getting They just have too many injuries right now.

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Speaker 1: They've got ten guys on the injury list. You got

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Speaker 1: no Thiago, you have, like I already mentioned, you have

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Speaker 1: essentially three forwards that might be out. My teap's now hurt.

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Speaker 1: So you're getting a lot of guys who maybe wouldn't

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Speaker 1: have started for Liverpool at the beginning of the season,

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Speaker 1: but are still really good players. And can they roll

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Speaker 1: with the midfield of James Milner and Henderson and Harvey Elliott.

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Speaker 1: I don't know for a full season. In terms of

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Speaker 1: this matchup, I don't know what's gonna happen. This is

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Speaker 1: just gonna be chaos. I don't know which way it's

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Speaker 1: gonna go. Michael could go get you know, United could

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Speaker 1: win two to one and everybody could say, oh my gosh,

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Speaker 1: ten knugs got this thing turned around. Or Liverpool could

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Speaker 1: do what they did last year at the end of

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Speaker 1: the season and pace them was four nothing, So I

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Speaker 1: don't know. I'm just passing this. This game has just

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Speaker 1: chaos written all over it.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I think you kind of made my point for me,

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Speaker 4: which is.

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Speaker 1: Yes, But at the same time, there's no way in

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Speaker 1: hell I'm betting you in this current state of United.

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Speaker 1: There's no way.

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Speaker 4: But you're getting a good price to do it.

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Speaker 2: That's exactly when you want to buy.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, exactly, you're getting a great price to do it.

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Speaker 4: And you said something about their midfield, right, Like what

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Speaker 4: has everyone been saying about the United problem? The heart

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Speaker 4: of their issues is that they don't have a midfield. Well,

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Speaker 4: Liverpool doesn't have one right now either, so that significant

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Speaker 4: weakness for United is kind of muted. Like they're not

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Speaker 4: going up against Thiago right They're They're going to be

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Speaker 4: going up against James Milner. So I mean it's a

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Speaker 4: good number. That's all that matters, is that you're getting

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Speaker 4: a good number on a team that three weeks ago

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Speaker 4: was rated as the fifth or sixth best team in

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Speaker 4: the Premier League by the betting market. Anthony as our

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Speaker 4: Liverpool fan on the podcast, what do you have to say?

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Speaker 3: I'm going to push back on BJ's point about Liverpool

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Speaker 3: not being fine. You know, we look at the final

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Speaker 3: XG and that is true. You know, Crystal Palace, you know,

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Speaker 3: did end up creating one and a half expected goals.

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Speaker 2: A good amount of that came late after the red card.

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Speaker 3: Liverpool played one hundred and forty nine minutes at full

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Speaker 3: strength this year, they've created two point six want to

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Speaker 3: expect the goals per ninety that is the most in

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Speaker 3: the prem.

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Speaker 4: Against Fulham, against the newly promoted team at Crystal Palace.

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Speaker 2: Then well, yeah, yeah, yeah, I'm not, but I'm not.

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Speaker 2: But like, let's not say the sky is falling.

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Speaker 3: I mean they're plus one point three to two extra

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Speaker 3: difference per ninety when they've played teams at full strength,

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Speaker 3: and yes, that's that's still Fulham in Palace and they're not,

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Speaker 3: you know, two top teams, even though I think we're

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Speaker 3: all high on Palace and then we're pretty impressed by.

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Speaker 2: The per formance.

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Speaker 3: I think we're having a very different conversation if Liverpool

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Speaker 3: just scores first and wins the game. You know, we're saying, oh,

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Speaker 3: they had a weird result opening day, and they took

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Speaker 3: care of business at home against Palace and they were

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Speaker 3: totally dominant, and now I will agree with BJ's point

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Speaker 3: about the defense, and this is something that I've talked

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Speaker 3: about on this pod since we started it, and it

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Speaker 3: feels like maybe we're finally getting some of it. But

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Speaker 3: the defense is a little bit vulnerable without Thiago in

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Speaker 3: the lineup when they do play Nunez, he doesn't do

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Speaker 3: the kind of defensive work that they're forwards of the past,

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Speaker 3: like for me, Noo have done, and without you know,

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Speaker 3: a capable center back next to Virgil Vandyke when they're

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Speaker 3: required to start in at Phillips, that's a big weakness.

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Speaker 3: We've talked about Trent's defensive vulnerabilities. Harvey Elliott playing, he

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Speaker 3: doesn't do much defensive work for a midfielder. He's much

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Speaker 3: more of an attacking midfielder. So I think there's absolutely

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Speaker 3: truth to the fact that Liverpool in its current state

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Speaker 3: is going to be much weaker defensively than the numbers

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Speaker 3: we saw them put up last year. And of course

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Speaker 3: they've already conceded three goals, so I think I buy that,

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Speaker 3: But I'm not buying that Liverpool's attack is going to

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Speaker 3: be any worse now in this matchup, especially I am

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Speaker 3: passing because again mentioned too many injuries I would lean

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Speaker 3: tod United the current number based on my numbers, which

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Speaker 3: is insane because of how much you know, I've looked

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Speaker 3: to bet against United in the last in the first

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Speaker 3: two weeks, but I think now would be the time

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Speaker 3: if you were going to buy United, It's the time

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Speaker 3: to get in.

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Speaker 2: But again I'm going to pass.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, so real quick on that. I'm not saying that

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Speaker 1: Liverpool like the sky is falling, they would fall out

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Speaker 1: the top four. I'm saying that the sky is falling

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Speaker 1: is they're nowhere close to man City right now at

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Speaker 1: their current state, and this might be a runaway for City.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, in terms of projection, I'm with you.

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Speaker 1: I have Liverpool at minus one ninety two United at

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Speaker 1: plus five h nine, so I mean it's it's pretty

184
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Speaker 1: close to the market. Yeah, we're pretty close to what

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Speaker 1: the market has so especially the factor on the injuries

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Speaker 1: for Liverpool, so you know, wouldn't hate to look at

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Speaker 1: maybe an over at a high price.

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Speaker 4: United matches have treated me very well this season.

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Speaker 1: Five to like regression.

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Speaker 3: Two goals, we're just straight to Hay's regression. It is

191
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Speaker 3: regression and I think that's something we need to talk

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Speaker 3: about in being the season right because they were he

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Speaker 3: was up there almost close to Jose saw numbers. Now, granted,

194
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Speaker 3: the second goal was more just like he can't kick

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Speaker 3: the ball and that's like a longer term issue.

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Speaker 2: We could talk about it.

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Speaker 3: Later, but uh, yeah, it's unlikely to Hey is going

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Speaker 3: to just toss two balls into his own net.

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Speaker 4: Again. Yeah, it sounds like everybody here is in agreement

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Speaker 4: that United is the way. You guys are just not

201
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Speaker 4: brave enough to do it, Like if there's a lot

202
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Speaker 4: of bigs here that are telling you that the price

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Speaker 4: is too high. Anyways, that's enough on this relegation six pointer.

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Speaker 4: There's another relegation six pointer we'll get to in a

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Speaker 4: little bit. Uh seven thirty am kickoff on Saturday morning.

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Speaker 4: Spurs minus two seventy at home, both seven to one

207
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Speaker 4: on the road, draw plus four twenty five. It's a

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Speaker 4: little bit of a letdown spot for Tottenham coming off

209
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Speaker 4: of you know, the rousing Week one win and then

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Speaker 4: the crazy match against Chelsea to that ended two two,

211
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Speaker 4: and then Wolves are such a you know, sleepy team

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Speaker 4: so far this season that that kind of adds to

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Speaker 4: like the letdown spot potential, and you're getting a big

214
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Speaker 4: Price on Wolves. But this is a pretty easy pass

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Speaker 4: for me, uh in the early kickoff on Saturday, so

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Speaker 4: it would be Wolves or nothing. But I'm just gonna

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Speaker 4: pass and toss it to Anthony for his take on

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Speaker 4: his Spurs.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, you know, I thought Spurs were okay on Sunday,

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Speaker 3: and I think people overreacted to the first hour and

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Speaker 3: and I think Chelsea did some things tactically that really

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Speaker 3: made them, you know, out play Spurs. The midfield superiority,

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Speaker 3: Conte kind of turning back the clock looking like vintage

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Speaker 3: at Conte and looking like at his best. And Conte

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Speaker 3: made and Antonio Conte made some adjustments to you know,

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Speaker 3: what Tugle was doing, the free up Mason Mount, what

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Speaker 3: Touga was doing to overwhelm certain wide areas, and got

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Speaker 3: finally got you know, sewn free a little bit, and

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Speaker 3: you know, brought you know, changed up the midield a

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Speaker 3: little bit.

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Speaker 2: With Charleston, I thought was lively.

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Speaker 3: I thought Spurs were fine, and for the most part,

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Speaker 3: you know, they deserved the result, probably not the tools.

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Speaker 3: You could say that they probably didn't deserve it. But

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Speaker 3: over all, over the course of one hundred eighty minutes,

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Speaker 3: I've been kind of Luke warm on Spurs. I think

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Speaker 3: they were They were fine against Southampton. I think people

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Speaker 3: overreacted because of how good the finishing was in that game,

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Speaker 3: whereas the field tip was pretty even and now they

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Speaker 3: got you know, pretty well dominated in terms of field

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Speaker 3: tilt at Chelsea. Now you expect that the look here

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Speaker 3: for me would be toward a Wolves team total over

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Speaker 3: based on just Spurs looking a little bit leaky defensively

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Speaker 3: and I'm a little bit concerned about that and overall,

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Speaker 3: but the number wasn't good enough for me, so I'm

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Speaker 3: gonna be staying away here. The Wolves team total was

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Speaker 3: minus one thirty. If that got down coasure to minus

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Speaker 3: one ten one fifteen, I would bite. I do think

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Speaker 3: they can cause some problems for Spurs, but overall, gonna

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Speaker 3: be passing here.

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Speaker 4: All right, We'll move to the ten am kickoffs. The

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Speaker 4: other relegation six pointer Everton minus one oh five against

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Speaker 4: Notting Forced plus three twenty the draw plus two fifty

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Speaker 4: at Goodison Park. More transfer news from not Ing Forced

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Speaker 4: and Carently them and Everton are both going after soon

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Speaker 4: to be former Brighton striker Neil Mopi. Everton still scoring issues,

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Speaker 4: looks like that's going to be a running theme until

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Speaker 4: Calvert Lewin comes back. However, they did look much better

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Speaker 4: with ama Onana in the middle of the field for

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Speaker 4: those last fifteen minutes and Ron Don up top, which

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Speaker 4: is crazy just to even say. But now Anthony Gordon

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Speaker 4: and Delhi Ali might be on the way out, so

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Speaker 4: that that will just add to the scoring issues. From

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Speaker 4: a betting perspective, it looks like a play on Forrest.

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Speaker 4: Here is a way to go. You're getting a good

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Speaker 4: number to take on an Everton team that is just

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Speaker 4: in flux. So plus three twenty looks like a decent

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Speaker 4: number for a team that was very lucky to win

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Speaker 4: last week in Forrest. But I mean, it's just there's

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Speaker 4: right now, at this at this very moment, there's just

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Speaker 4: not that much between these two teams. So Forrests are

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Speaker 4: nothing for me. BJ What about you?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, I'm taking Ninning and Forest plus half

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Speaker 1: a goal and minus one ten. With all the injuries

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Speaker 1: that Everton's dealing with right now, I don't think they

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Speaker 1: should be this big of a favorite. You're gonna be

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Speaker 1: missing Calvert Lewin, Yurimina, Ben Godfried, andre Al Decore. Without

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Speaker 1: Calvert Lewin and Richardoson. Last year, Everton as one expected

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Speaker 1: goal per match. Last season, when Mino was in the lineup,

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Speaker 1: they only allowed one point one expected goals per match.

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Speaker 1: Without him it was one point five to eight. Now,

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Speaker 1: I understand last season they did an f center back death.

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Speaker 1: This year they have Tarkowski, they have Connor Cody, but

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Speaker 1: it still highlights a larger point that Everton is much

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Speaker 1: better when Yurimena is in the lineup, and I mean

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Speaker 1: without him against Aston and they let Austin Villa to

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Speaker 1: create one point seven expected goals, So I don't expect

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Speaker 1: this defense to just get drastically better without him in

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Speaker 1: the lineup. Not eam Forrest. I mean, listen, they were

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Speaker 1: bet a lot better in the second match than they

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Speaker 1: were in the first, but it was a really low

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Speaker 1: bar to climb. But if you take away the penalty

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Speaker 1: from west Ham, the expected goals battle was about even.

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Speaker 1: But offensively, you know, in ninium Forest did have twenty

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Speaker 1: four touches in a west Ham's penalty area. They did

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Speaker 1: have twelve box entries and seventeen shot creating actions. That's

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Speaker 1: much better than what happened at Newcastle. But defensively there

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Speaker 1: are still some pretty gaping problems. I mean, thirty two

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Speaker 1: touches in their own penalty area, thirty shot creating actions allowed.

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Speaker 1: It just it's it's going to be a struggle for

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Speaker 1: Notingham Forrest. But then again, they're not facing an offense

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Speaker 1: that has really great attackers right now. I mean I

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Speaker 1: saw him and Ron Don You can say whatever about him,

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Speaker 1: but I don't really see him creating that much in

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Speaker 1: this type of match. And I mean, is Everton really

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Speaker 1: gonna hold a ton of possession here? Are they gonna

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Speaker 1: be the more ball dominant side? I mean last season

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Speaker 1: they were dead last in the Premier League in average possession.

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Speaker 1: So if Forrest wants to set up very defensively looked counter,

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Speaker 1: I mean, can Everton beat his ball dominant side that

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Speaker 1: can break down a low block and create a ton

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Speaker 1: of chances? I don't think so. So I mean I've

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Speaker 1: Everton projected at plus one twenty one, so I think

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Speaker 1: there's a little bit of value on Forest plus half

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Speaker 1: a goal at minus one ten Antie, what.

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Speaker 4: Are your thoughts here Everton and Forest?

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I would actually lean toward the over a little

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Speaker 3: bit here, you know, I think what we saw in

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Speaker 3: the first couple of games from both of these defenses

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Speaker 3: was some major question marks. You know, Everton did a

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Speaker 3: good job in the first match of defending its own

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Speaker 3: penalty area against Chelsea, but I think that may, in hindsight,

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Speaker 3: after what we saw Chelsea do dispersed be more about

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Speaker 3: chill problems than it was Everton's great defending. And now

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Speaker 3: you take Jerry Meena out of that. Chelsea again against Spurs,

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Speaker 3: struggling to get that final ball to get that shot

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Speaker 3: off in the box from clear chances. Their defense conceding

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Speaker 3: a ton though, and I thought it was really evident

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Speaker 3: once any Bundia came on for Villa, how easy it

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Speaker 3: was for Villa to just walk right into the penalty area.

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Speaker 3: And so that was a pretty big concern. I understand,

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Speaker 3: you know, Everton did show some signs of life, you know,

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Speaker 3: with you know, immediately after conceding, but it was kind

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Speaker 3: of a fluky owned goal Villa had switched off. So

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Speaker 3: I don't I don't read a ton into that. I

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Speaker 3: read it a lot more into the fact that through

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Speaker 3: two matches they've conceded about two point three expected goals

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Speaker 3: for ninety that's a major concern for Everton, and defensively Forest.

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Speaker 2: I mean they talked about it.

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Speaker 3: I mean they had two separate plays that were barred down,

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Speaker 3: then they had a ball cleared off the line that

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Speaker 3: was actually should have been I thought a red card,

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Speaker 3: and then they got a penalty that they saved. So

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Speaker 3: you know, there was a good bit of fortune that

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Speaker 3: came into that Forest defense. And even going back to

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Speaker 3: the first match, they easily could have lost that by

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Speaker 3: more just how dominant Newcastle was. So I think Forrest,

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Speaker 3: especially away from home here, could have some defensive issues.

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Speaker 3: The biggest problem is who's scoring the goals for Everton,

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Speaker 3: right Bjay mentioned So that's the only thing that would

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Speaker 3: scare me a little bit, but a plus money over

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Speaker 3: two and a half would be the lean for me.

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Speaker 3: We'll see what the Everton lineup ends up looking like

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Speaker 3: come Saturday, and all the side I'm going to end

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Speaker 3: up being on that, all right.

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Speaker 4: We'll move to another relegation six pointer, Leicester City minus

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Speaker 4: one twenty taking on Southampton plus three ten to draw

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Speaker 4: up plus two ninety. This one's taking place at the

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Speaker 4: king Power and Leicester. It's a very similar market to

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Speaker 4: the one we just talked about between Everton and Forrest.

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Speaker 4: Southampton down to plus one fifty to be relegated, making

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Speaker 4: them the third favorite. These two defenses combined twelve goals

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Speaker 4: allowed already this season, six each, and then six point

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Speaker 4: six expected goals all combined between the two of them

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Speaker 4: in two games. I kind of like the Southampton here.

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Speaker 4: I think it's similar to what I'll SUGMD about with

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Speaker 4: Everton and Forrest, where yes, Saints are bad, right, we

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Speaker 4: know Southampton's bad, but Lester the difference just isn't wide

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Speaker 4: enough for Lester to be this big a favorite, even

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Speaker 4: though they're at home. With the way they've looked, with

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Speaker 4: their transfer issues, the fact that they haven't brought anyone

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Speaker 4: in yet, players could be leaving. So yeah, Southampton, they

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Speaker 4: are a tricky side to beat because of their press.

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Speaker 4: I just think Lester could have more trouble with them

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Speaker 4: than the market implies. So I'll be taking a shot

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Speaker 4: out on the Saints plus three ten here.

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Speaker 3: What do you have, Anthony, Yeah, I bet Southampton have

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Speaker 3: a lean toward the under. I think that I might

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Speaker 3: end up getting there. It's my first Lester under the season.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned it right, like, these defense have been bad

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Speaker 3: thus far, but they haven't been as bad as the

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Speaker 3: underlying or as the surface level numbers indicate. Lester conceding

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Speaker 3: four to Arsenal. Yeah, they got ripped open a couple

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Speaker 3: of times, but a lot of that was just Gabrielle

385
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Speaker 3: Jesus magic. He had to over to expect the goals himself.

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Speaker 3: And I, you know, Southampton doesn't have any attacker of

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Speaker 3: that quality and Saints, you know, we saw them get

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Speaker 3: run open a couple of times by Spurs, but overall

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Speaker 3: I thought they improved defensively against Leeds in the second matchup,

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Speaker 3: and they were at home. The thing about Lester, and

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Speaker 3: the concerning thing here is there's only two teams, three

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Speaker 3: teams in the league that have averaged less than one

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Speaker 3: expected goal per match thus far in attack, and we

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Speaker 3: have two of them playing here. And so for the

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Speaker 3: total to be as high as it is at three,

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Speaker 3: it's very hard for me to get to that number

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Speaker 3: given how little we've seen from the Lester attack and

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Speaker 3: how little we've seen from this Saints attack too.

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Speaker 2: So I lean.

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Speaker 3: Toward the under of course, you know, could we could

401
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Speaker 3: do this all year with Saints. We're gonna say that

402
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Speaker 3: they can see a ton of big scoring chances, and

403
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Speaker 3: that's a major issue, and Lester has set piece issues

404
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Speaker 3: that you can see it off off a set piece

405
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Speaker 3: already this year. But again, at a certain point, the

406
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Speaker 3: number just gets a little too high, and we're kind

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Speaker 3: of at that point here. I agree with your point,

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Speaker 3: Michael on the first thing, which is that there is

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Speaker 3: not enough of a difference between these two teams to

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Speaker 3: warrant Lester being this much of a home favorite. I

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Speaker 3: make Lester plus one fifteen, so willing to take the

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Speaker 3: Saints at even money plus a half.

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Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to the team of the podcast.

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Speaker 4: This is a Crystal Palace podcast, of course. Plus one

415
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Speaker 4: fifty five at home against Aston Villa plus one ninety

416
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Speaker 4: the draw here plus two thirty. I think this one

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Speaker 4: is pretty simple. Who's the better team right now between

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Speaker 4: these two teams. I think it's Palace, so you get

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Speaker 4: a good number on them at home plus one fifty

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Speaker 4: five against a Girard team right now at this second,

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Speaker 4: I think it is like, oh, I think in terms

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Speaker 4: of talent, you could probably say Villa on paper should

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Speaker 4: be the better team, but right now it's Palace and

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Speaker 4: you're getting a great defensive side at home where they

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Speaker 4: do their best work against a lumbering offensive side. Who

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Speaker 4: Sure they did show some signs of life against Everdence,

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Speaker 4: but that's not really saying much right now, as we

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Speaker 4: just talked about. So plus one fifty five on Palace,

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Speaker 4: I think is a great number coming off of two

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Speaker 4: really really good performances against Arsenal and Liverpool, especially defensively.

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Speaker 4: It's just I think they're the better side BJ. What

432
00:18:42,040 --> 00:18:42,440
Speaker 4: about you?

433
00:18:42,720 --> 00:18:44,920
Speaker 1: I agree? I mean tough schedule out of the gates

434
00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:48,240
Speaker 1: for Crystal Palace, Arsenal and Liverpool. Only a minus point

435
00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:50,159
Speaker 1: three expected gold the French all through those two matches,

436
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:53,160
Speaker 1: so pretty impressive stuff from Palace. And you know, Crystal Palace,

437
00:18:53,320 --> 00:18:55,480
Speaker 1: the reason they're going to constantly show value in the market,

438
00:18:55,480 --> 00:18:56,920
Speaker 1: whether they're playing a Big six side or not, is

439
00:18:56,920 --> 00:18:59,480
Speaker 1: because they profile so well both as an underdog. He

440
00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:01,600
Speaker 1: saw them based they defended for their lives against Liverpool,

441
00:19:01,920 --> 00:19:04,120
Speaker 1: but they're also great as a favorite, maybe being able

442
00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:08,000
Speaker 1: to control possession against smaller sides. So last season against

443
00:19:08,040 --> 00:19:11,200
Speaker 1: non Big six teams, Crystal Palace averaged one point three

444
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,480
Speaker 1: expected goals per ninety and only allowed point ninety four.

445
00:19:13,520 --> 00:19:16,600
Speaker 1: That's pretty good and they did a fad fantastic job

446
00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:19,480
Speaker 1: all season long of really controlling possession and build up play.

447
00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:21,640
Speaker 1: I mean they were top ten to ten plus pass

448
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:25,280
Speaker 1: sequences and sequence time. They were a top eight pressing

449
00:19:25,320 --> 00:19:28,919
Speaker 1: team by passes per defensive action, high turnovers and pressure

450
00:19:28,960 --> 00:19:31,800
Speaker 1: success rate. And that's big against aston Villa, who last

451
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,119
Speaker 1: season was seventeenth in offensive passes per defensive action. In

452
00:19:35,160 --> 00:19:37,760
Speaker 1: the first two weeks did not face good pressing teams

453
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:39,359
Speaker 1: in Bournemouth and Everton. So this is going to be

454
00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:42,119
Speaker 1: a different type of animal for aston Villa. And you know,

455
00:19:42,200 --> 00:19:43,760
Speaker 1: I've spoke about it two weeks in a row now,

456
00:19:43,760 --> 00:19:45,840
Speaker 1: but Aston Villa and or Gerrard one point two expected

457
00:19:45,880 --> 00:19:47,880
Speaker 1: gole was for ninety minutes they only had twenty They

458
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:49,680
Speaker 1: now I've only had twenty big scoring chances in twenty

459
00:19:49,760 --> 00:19:52,040
Speaker 1: nine matches with him in charge. That's not good. And

460
00:19:52,080 --> 00:19:53,320
Speaker 1: now we have to go up and face the top

461
00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:55,800
Speaker 1: five defense from last season who still looks just as

462
00:19:55,800 --> 00:19:57,160
Speaker 1: bit as good as they did last year. And also

463
00:19:57,160 --> 00:19:58,840
Speaker 1: these two teams face Towards the end of last season

464
00:19:59,080 --> 00:20:00,880
Speaker 1: it was a one to one drop Crystal Palace one

465
00:20:00,920 --> 00:20:03,960
Speaker 1: Unexpectables one point three to one at Villa Park. So

466
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:06,360
Speaker 1: and then of course you know we said a million times,

467
00:20:06,359 --> 00:20:09,640
Speaker 1: but Crystal Palace at Salehurst Park unbelievable plus ten point

468
00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:12,800
Speaker 1: two expected gold deferential last season. So I'm taking Palace.

469
00:20:12,840 --> 00:20:14,840
Speaker 1: Jrono Beatt at minus one twenty five, I think there's

470
00:20:14,840 --> 00:20:16,400
Speaker 1: some good value in that. I'd played up to minus one.

471
00:20:16,400 --> 00:20:20,399
Speaker 4: Thirty, Anthony, what about your thoughts? Here are boys Crystal

472
00:20:20,400 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 4: Palace and Acid Villa.

473
00:20:21,880 --> 00:20:24,240
Speaker 3: Yeah, so I've got these two teams very comparable, so

474
00:20:24,320 --> 00:20:25,840
Speaker 3: I do have to show in a little bit of value

475
00:20:25,840 --> 00:20:28,600
Speaker 3: on Palace being at home as well. I hate to

476
00:20:28,600 --> 00:20:30,840
Speaker 3: bet against my Villa boys because I know we all

477
00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:32,960
Speaker 3: love Palace, but I most certainly do love Villa, and

478
00:20:33,000 --> 00:20:35,760
Speaker 3: I was extremely encouraged by the performance in the last

479
00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:38,760
Speaker 3: you know, the second half against Everton. I understand it

480
00:20:38,800 --> 00:20:40,720
Speaker 3: is Everton, it was at home, but I thought the

481
00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 3: way they were able to kind of finally show in

482
00:20:43,720 --> 00:20:45,879
Speaker 3: ability to get the ball into the final third and

483
00:20:45,960 --> 00:20:48,560
Speaker 3: create scoring chances off of it was extremely encouraging. With

484
00:20:48,640 --> 00:20:50,920
Speaker 3: that being said, like Beja mentioned, now they're on the road,

485
00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:54,080
Speaker 3: they're up against a Palace side who has been stellar defensively,

486
00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:57,320
Speaker 3: great with the ball, and so overall I think this

487
00:20:57,400 --> 00:20:59,520
Speaker 3: is gonna end up probably being a stay away from me.

488
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:00,680
Speaker 2: Interesting thing.

489
00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:02,480
Speaker 3: You know, last year we got two and a half

490
00:21:02,520 --> 00:21:04,760
Speaker 3: in this game. Now it's two and a quarter, so

491
00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:06,440
Speaker 3: you know, any value I would have looked toward the

492
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 3: under I bet the under when they played in the

493
00:21:07,960 --> 00:21:12,119
Speaker 3: spring that is gone unfortunately, so will not be playing

494
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,200
Speaker 3: the total in this match. If it does get any lower,

495
00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:17,200
Speaker 3: I will actually look to play the over in this match, dude,

496
00:21:17,480 --> 00:21:19,320
Speaker 3: like what I saw, like I said, from the Villa attack,

497
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:22,119
Speaker 3: and you know Pallace is attack much more lively at

498
00:21:22,119 --> 00:21:24,760
Speaker 3: home and it's been away from home this year, so overall,

499
00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:27,440
Speaker 3: I do find it interesting because you know Pallas has

500
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:29,840
Speaker 3: the ball, but that kind of is how Villa likes

501
00:21:29,840 --> 00:21:32,720
Speaker 3: to play sometimes with their ability to counter directly, so

502
00:21:33,080 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 3: it is an interesting kind of chess match and you

503
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:36,959
Speaker 3: know who who does want the ball and all that

504
00:21:37,040 --> 00:21:38,919
Speaker 3: kind of is why I like the under last year

505
00:21:38,920 --> 00:21:40,520
Speaker 3: when the two teams played. But now the number's gone,

506
00:21:40,520 --> 00:21:41,800
Speaker 3: so I'll probably end up passing here.

507
00:21:42,440 --> 00:21:45,400
Speaker 4: An interesting thing about Villa is they seem to get

508
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:49,240
Speaker 4: better when they took Philip Catino off and put amydon.

509
00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:50,199
Speaker 1: It was interesting.

510
00:21:50,359 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 4: Yes, absolutely, that's a that's an interesting call for Gerrard

511
00:21:53,080 --> 00:21:55,760
Speaker 4: tap to make all right, let's move to Fulham and Brentford. Now,

512
00:21:55,960 --> 00:21:58,800
Speaker 4: little London dar before you Fallhoam plus one forty five

513
00:21:58,800 --> 00:22:00,920
Speaker 4: at home Brentford two to one on the road plus

514
00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:03,000
Speaker 4: one ninety five the draw plus two forty five. Very

515
00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:05,760
Speaker 4: similar market to Palace and Villa and a similar thought.

516
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:08,560
Speaker 4: I think Brentford is the better team than Folloham here.

517
00:22:08,560 --> 00:22:11,040
Speaker 4: I know it shows with when you factor in home

518
00:22:11,080 --> 00:22:12,800
Speaker 4: Fiel advantage, but I think the gap is a little

519
00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:16,480
Speaker 4: wider than these odds suggest. The Bees only one point

520
00:22:16,520 --> 00:22:21,560
Speaker 4: four expectacles allowed so far against Leicester and Manchester United,

521
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,159
Speaker 4: one of which came on the road, so the defense

522
00:22:24,200 --> 00:22:26,720
Speaker 4: looks like it's humming along just fine. That's second best

523
00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,480
Speaker 4: ex g A, only behind Manchester City. And they should

524
00:22:30,480 --> 00:22:32,760
Speaker 4: also be able to handle Alexander Mitchrovic in the middle

525
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:36,120
Speaker 4: of that box. They have the personnel to do it,

526
00:22:36,800 --> 00:22:39,000
Speaker 4: and given Fulham's defensive issues, I just think this is

527
00:22:39,040 --> 00:22:42,959
Speaker 4: a good spot for Brentford's offense to continue trending up.

528
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 4: So give me our Bees baby plus one ninety five

529
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,720
Speaker 4: on the road at Craven Cottage, BJ. What do you have?

530
00:22:49,040 --> 00:22:51,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, not only a London Darby, but a West London

531
00:22:51,080 --> 00:22:53,239
Speaker 1: Derby between Fulham and Brentford. I mean, I think this

532
00:22:53,240 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 1: one could kind of turn into a little bit of

533
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,160
Speaker 1: a snoozer. I mean, we have what we've learned from

534
00:22:57,160 --> 00:22:59,720
Speaker 1: Marco Sola in the first two matches is that Fulham's

535
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:01,800
Speaker 1: can be just fine with playing without the ball. I

536
00:23:01,840 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: mean the amount of possession they were. You know, they

537
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,400
Speaker 1: had a ton of possession in the Championship, but through

538
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,919
Speaker 1: the first two matches they have the second lowest average

539
00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:12,400
Speaker 1: possession at thirty seven percent. But they do haven't even

540
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,320
Speaker 1: expected gold of frenchp with that little possession, which is

541
00:23:16,119 --> 00:23:18,800
Speaker 1: kind of impressive considering they posted Liverpool and went and

542
00:23:18,840 --> 00:23:22,359
Speaker 1: played Wolves on the road. Now, against Wolves, defensively they

543
00:23:22,400 --> 00:23:25,000
Speaker 1: were actually, I thought, really good. They held them to

544
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,359
Speaker 1: seven shots, thirteen touches in the penalty area and only

545
00:23:27,560 --> 00:23:30,280
Speaker 1: zero point seven x streets despite letting Wolves have about

546
00:23:30,320 --> 00:23:33,639
Speaker 1: fifty nine percent possession since they've had so little of

547
00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,199
Speaker 1: the ball. They do have the third most pressures in

548
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,280
Speaker 1: the Premier League, but their pass per defensive action is

549
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:42,000
Speaker 1: quite low and the pressure success rate is around what

550
00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,600
Speaker 1: the league average was last season. The thing about Brentford

551
00:23:44,760 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: is they will struggle if they play against teams that

552
00:23:47,080 --> 00:23:49,840
Speaker 1: can press them successfully. I mean they're eighteenth in pressure

553
00:23:49,840 --> 00:23:52,840
Speaker 1: success rate allowed in nineteenth and ball recoveries allowed. But

554
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:54,600
Speaker 1: that doesn't mean Brentford is just going to be able

555
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:56,680
Speaker 1: to play right through them or be able to dominate possession.

556
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: I mean the Bees they were fourteenth and in average

557
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:02,840
Speaker 1: POSSESSI last year fifteenth and average sequence time. And listen,

558
00:24:02,880 --> 00:24:05,240
Speaker 1: as much as I love Brentford, I mean last season

559
00:24:05,280 --> 00:24:06,959
Speaker 1: they were not an offensive chugger not. I mean they

560
00:24:06,960 --> 00:24:09,560
Speaker 1: were tenth in x G thirteenth and shots for ninety

561
00:24:09,560 --> 00:24:11,720
Speaker 1: and eighth and big scoring chances, so a pretty average

562
00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:14,200
Speaker 1: offense in the Premier League. So I'm gonna go both

563
00:24:14,240 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 1: teams to score no. At plus one fifteen. I think

564
00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:19,320
Speaker 1: it's a pretty decent price for a match that I'm

565
00:24:19,359 --> 00:24:21,320
Speaker 1: not sure who's gonna be able to control possession. I

566
00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:23,320
Speaker 1: think we have two pretty good defensive sides here. I

567
00:24:23,320 --> 00:24:25,199
Speaker 1: mean Fulham in the championship point a lot point eight

568
00:24:25,280 --> 00:24:27,680
Speaker 1: seven xctually for ninety minutes, which is really good. And

569
00:24:27,680 --> 00:24:30,880
Speaker 1: they've made some additions, especially their defense and to their

570
00:24:30,880 --> 00:24:34,000
Speaker 1: defensive midfield that actually I think improves them. So I'm

571
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:35,680
Speaker 1: going both team to score now at plus one fifteen

572
00:24:35,720 --> 00:24:37,000
Speaker 1: because I think it's a fantastic price.

573
00:24:37,240 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 3: I agree, I'm on the under Personally, two and a

574
00:24:39,320 --> 00:24:41,879
Speaker 3: half minus one ten minus one o five's are out

575
00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:44,879
Speaker 3: there as well. I don't really know why this is

576
00:24:44,960 --> 00:24:45,920
Speaker 3: up from two and a quarter.

577
00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:46,439
Speaker 2: I think it.

578
00:24:46,640 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 3: You know, obviously, Brentford goes out and scores four against

579
00:24:48,840 --> 00:24:50,520
Speaker 3: Man United, but we already talked about that game and

580
00:24:50,720 --> 00:24:52,560
Speaker 3: why a couple of those goals were a little bit fluky,

581
00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:54,360
Speaker 3: and how they kind of took advantage of the fact

582
00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:56,680
Speaker 3: that United played one defensive midfielder and it was Fred,

583
00:24:56,680 --> 00:24:58,399
Speaker 3: and Fred got caught out a position a bunch of

584
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:03,920
Speaker 3: times and was left really just left the whole tea. Yeah, right,

585
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,159
Speaker 3: And they had a couple of beautiful counters. But I

586
00:25:06,160 --> 00:25:08,080
Speaker 3: don't think Fulham is going to open themselves up in

587
00:25:08,160 --> 00:25:11,880
Speaker 3: that way. You mentioned the Bees they were an average

588
00:25:11,880 --> 00:25:14,680
Speaker 3: team despite dominance on set pieces. They were a very

589
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:18,440
Speaker 3: below average attacking side in open play, especially on the road,

590
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,240
Speaker 3: and so Fulham's ability to play without the ball. You

591
00:25:21,280 --> 00:25:24,080
Speaker 3: talked about it seven shots and about points seven XG

592
00:25:24,160 --> 00:25:26,080
Speaker 3: and their best chance came because the goalie ran into

593
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:27,600
Speaker 3: the defender and set up a tap.

594
00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:28,240
Speaker 2: In that Wolves missed.

595
00:25:28,280 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 3: So you take that out and it's like, okay, they

596
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:32,800
Speaker 3: really didn't create anything from open play or from set

597
00:25:32,800 --> 00:25:35,680
Speaker 3: pieces for that matter. So Fulham being good without the ball,

598
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,720
Speaker 3: Fulham being a potential early early season under team going

599
00:25:38,760 --> 00:25:42,880
Speaker 3: forward as they continue to be excellent as a defensive

600
00:25:42,920 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 3: team with Paulina and Pereira all encouraging signs. So would

601
00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:48,840
Speaker 3: I played the under two and a half here, surprised

602
00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 3: it was not two and a quarter.

603
00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,119
Speaker 4: All right, let's wrap up the Saturday matches with Bournemouth

604
00:25:53,200 --> 00:25:56,760
Speaker 4: plus seven fifty against Arsenal minus two sixty the draw

605
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:01,359
Speaker 4: plus three eighty. I got nothing here. If anything would

606
00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:04,320
Speaker 4: be Arsenal's like a parlay piece maybe with like Chelsea

607
00:26:04,440 --> 00:26:06,719
Speaker 4: or something. BJ What do you have?

608
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:09,680
Speaker 1: This season's gonna suck if arcel and just keeps getting

609
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,920
Speaker 1: overvalued like this. I mean, this is way too high

610
00:26:13,000 --> 00:26:14,960
Speaker 1: for Arsenal. I mean, yeah, they've been great through the

611
00:26:15,000 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 1: first two matches. I mean, I mean XU was pretty

612
00:26:17,960 --> 00:26:20,320
Speaker 1: close against Crystal Palace. I think we all went through

613
00:26:20,320 --> 00:26:22,320
Speaker 1: that that that match was a lot closer than expected,

614
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:24,879
Speaker 1: I mean lesser defensively. It is what it is, what

615
00:26:24,920 --> 00:26:26,800
Speaker 1: it is, But Bournemouth. I mean, I don't think they

616
00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,320
Speaker 1: were as bad as the final score line indicated against

617
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 1: Manchester City. I mean City only created zero point six

618
00:26:32,640 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 1: y eight expected goals, they didn't have a big scoring chance,

619
00:26:36,200 --> 00:26:38,520
Speaker 1: and they didn't allow City to have a shot in

620
00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:40,679
Speaker 1: their own six yard box. So like, it wasn't that

621
00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:43,919
Speaker 1: bad of a defensive performance from Bournemouth. And honestly, I

622
00:26:43,920 --> 00:26:46,880
Speaker 1: mean for a newly promoted side like that, they're actually

623
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: pretty decent defensively. And the only you know, they defended

624
00:26:50,680 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 1: with the lead against aston Villa only allowed them to

625
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,199
Speaker 1: create point nine expected goals in the first match. So

626
00:26:56,960 --> 00:26:59,879
Speaker 1: I'm expecting Scott Parker to once again just pack it

627
00:27:00,080 --> 00:27:03,159
Speaker 1: in and play ultra defensive and we'll see if Arsenal

628
00:27:03,200 --> 00:27:06,639
Speaker 1: can break down a low block. I mean the biggest

629
00:27:06,640 --> 00:27:08,679
Speaker 1: thing here. I mean I could, I could try and

630
00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:10,639
Speaker 1: say some bad things, but Arsenal, I mean, there's not

631
00:27:10,680 --> 00:27:13,439
Speaker 1: really much bad you can say through the first two matches.

632
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:17,120
Speaker 1: I mean, Jesus has looked awesome. You know, Saliba looks great,

633
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,440
Speaker 1: But if you look around another projection outs, I have

634
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,720
Speaker 1: Arsenal minus one twelve, which I know sounds crazy, but

635
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:23,880
Speaker 1: if you look at five thirty eight. They have Arsenal

636
00:27:24,000 --> 00:27:26,840
Speaker 1: minus one forty. Info goal has Arsenal minus one thirty.

637
00:27:26,920 --> 00:27:31,080
Speaker 1: So sitting at minus two sixty, they're just over valued.

638
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:35,280
Speaker 1: And so you know, it sucks, and but I have

639
00:27:35,320 --> 00:27:36,760
Speaker 1: to I have to take Burnmouth plus one and a

640
00:27:36,800 --> 00:27:39,520
Speaker 1: half at minus one forty because I am showing value

641
00:27:39,520 --> 00:27:42,040
Speaker 1: on it. So Bournemouth plus one and a half at

642
00:27:42,040 --> 00:27:43,719
Speaker 1: minus one forty and let's hope for an Arsenal one

643
00:27:43,760 --> 00:27:44,120
Speaker 1: zier win.

644
00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:46,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, I just have a little bit of an issue

645
00:27:46,560 --> 00:27:48,760
Speaker 4: trying to find where Bournemouth is is going to score here?

646
00:27:49,160 --> 00:27:52,080
Speaker 3: All right, Bournemouth point point three six expected goals per

647
00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:54,240
Speaker 3: match less and that's fine, and that's fine, really bad

648
00:27:55,359 --> 00:27:58,040
Speaker 3: the score and they did the two goals against Villa

649
00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 3: one off a set piece. You know how many set

650
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:02,520
Speaker 3: pieces they really getting against Arsenal. That's the thing, right,

651
00:28:02,520 --> 00:28:04,920
Speaker 3: The Dinners don't have the midfield, the kind of midfield

652
00:28:04,920 --> 00:28:07,800
Speaker 3: they can trouble Arsenal. But again, like you just said,

653
00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:09,720
Speaker 3: I agree. I mean I have Arsenal minus one fifty.

654
00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:11,400
Speaker 3: I can't get them to the number that they're at.

655
00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:13,480
Speaker 4: It does bring up like an interesting point, right, Like

656
00:28:13,960 --> 00:28:16,359
Speaker 4: so much in the early season is just it's so

657
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 4: much noise to kind of sort through what like anything's

658
00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,560
Speaker 4: any of the numbers are actually saying, And it comes

659
00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,600
Speaker 4: down to a lot of raw handicapping and just from

660
00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:25,840
Speaker 4: the matchup perspective, That's why I think Arsenal is actually

661
00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:27,720
Speaker 4: not a bad bet here if you're gonna lay the

662
00:28:27,760 --> 00:28:29,240
Speaker 4: goal in a half or put them in a parlay

663
00:28:29,280 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 4: because they're gonna score. And I just don't think bourn

664
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:36,520
Speaker 4: with is like it's what they've shown the past. Their

665
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,640
Speaker 4: first two games, they don't give any indication that they're

666
00:28:39,680 --> 00:28:42,440
Speaker 4: going to be able to put up any crooked numbers,

667
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 4: even though they did score against Villa twice in their opener.

668
00:28:46,000 --> 00:28:48,520
Speaker 4: It just it just this looks like a terrible, terrible

669
00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:52,000
Speaker 4: matchup for them to be able to hang with a

670
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:53,800
Speaker 4: team that looks like it is humming offensively.

671
00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:56,720
Speaker 3: Yeah, we realistically need five matches before we have any

672
00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:58,680
Speaker 3: kind of baseline on a team, especially given the early

673
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:01,600
Speaker 3: season schedule different and then ten matches when you can

674
00:29:01,640 --> 00:29:04,000
Speaker 3: say XG becomes a little bit more predictive going forward.

675
00:29:04,400 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 3: So the early season, you know, it's like we have, okay,

676
00:29:07,160 --> 00:29:08,960
Speaker 3: we have what we thought about this team coming into

677
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:11,040
Speaker 3: the season based on last year, and then we add

678
00:29:11,080 --> 00:29:13,520
Speaker 3: in like one data point, two data points and we

679
00:29:13,560 --> 00:29:16,160
Speaker 3: can't overreact, right like the market will in certain spots,

680
00:29:16,680 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 3: but we can't you know, overreact to just one or

681
00:29:18,760 --> 00:29:20,880
Speaker 3: two games. And I think that's very true for Arsenal,

682
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 3: you know, I mean, think about what we would have

683
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,400
Speaker 3: said about Arsenal. We did say about Arsenal last year

684
00:29:24,440 --> 00:29:26,320
Speaker 3: at this time when they lost to Brentford, got pasted

685
00:29:26,360 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 3: by Chelsea and pasted by City and they you know,

686
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:30,200
Speaker 3: we were laughing at them at the bottom of the table.

687
00:29:30,200 --> 00:29:31,800
Speaker 2: They almost got top four, you know who.

688
00:29:31,840 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 4: That reminds me of Manchester United.

689
00:29:33,600 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 1: That's rights team at some point. It's happened to Liverpool,

690
00:29:39,000 --> 00:29:42,040
Speaker 1: it's hadding to Tottenham. It's happens now to United, it's

691
00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:45,000
Speaker 1: happened to Arsenal, I mean, and it's you know, I

692
00:29:45,000 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 1: mean Chelsea at one point you know they were they

693
00:29:47,160 --> 00:29:49,120
Speaker 1: finished eighth one year after winning one of the titles.

694
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 1: So it happens pretty much every team except for man

695
00:29:51,360 --> 00:29:52,680
Speaker 1: City because they have too much money.

696
00:29:53,000 --> 00:29:56,960
Speaker 4: It helps when you're owned by a nation state. All right,

697
00:29:57,040 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 4: let's move to Sunday. Now, Leeds United five to one

698
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:03,320
Speaker 4: at home hosting Chelsea minus one ninety. The draw here

699
00:30:03,320 --> 00:30:05,960
Speaker 4: is plus three forty. This is a massive step up

700
00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:10,120
Speaker 4: for Leeds, who got pummeled by the Big Six last season,

701
00:30:10,320 --> 00:30:14,400
Speaker 4: including three games under Jesse Marsh City Arsenal and Chelsea

702
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,600
Speaker 4: beat them eight to one in that crazy run that

703
00:30:17,760 --> 00:30:20,239
Speaker 4: put them into the drop zone, and Chelsea beat him

704
00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,800
Speaker 4: three dale in that run. That was a couple months

705
00:30:23,840 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 4: after March took over a couple of weeks at least,

706
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:28,040
Speaker 4: so we do have some idea of how they play

707
00:30:28,040 --> 00:30:30,680
Speaker 4: when they have to punch up. It's not particularly pretty,

708
00:30:30,840 --> 00:30:32,920
Speaker 4: and I'm pretty impressed with what we've seen at Chelsea

709
00:30:33,440 --> 00:30:37,040
Speaker 4: so far this season. So I like Chelsea might as

710
00:30:37,040 --> 00:30:38,720
Speaker 4: wanted a half plus one forty five here because I

711
00:30:38,720 --> 00:30:41,080
Speaker 4: think if Chelsea does win, and the market's telling you

712
00:30:41,120 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 4: that they should, it probably will come by multiple goals

713
00:30:43,920 --> 00:30:48,360
Speaker 4: considering what Leads has been showing defensively. So I either

714
00:30:48,400 --> 00:30:49,960
Speaker 4: like you know, like I alluded to with Arsenal, I

715
00:30:49,960 --> 00:30:52,200
Speaker 4: think an Arsenal Chelsea moneyline parlay if you want to

716
00:30:52,240 --> 00:30:55,480
Speaker 4: square out, is fine, But I also like Chelsea laying

717
00:30:55,480 --> 00:30:57,320
Speaker 4: a goal and a half at plus one forty five.

718
00:30:57,360 --> 00:30:59,880
Speaker 4: Good price there, Anthony, What do you have for us

719
00:31:00,040 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 4: eats and Chelsea.

720
00:31:01,080 --> 00:31:03,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, you know that game back when they played in

721
00:31:03,880 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 3: the spring was a little bit tricky because there was

722
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:08,120
Speaker 3: a red card in the twentieth minute to Daniel James.

723
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 3: Leeds were off to a slow start, but they were

724
00:31:11,520 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 3: I thought they were growing into the game at that point.

725
00:31:13,240 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 3: And it was that run where they got the red

726
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,480
Speaker 3: card against Arsenal the red card against Chelsea and really

727
00:31:17,600 --> 00:31:19,320
Speaker 3: never had a chance to get a result in either.

728
00:31:20,400 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 3: And they actually you know, held Chelsea to one point

729
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:26,120
Speaker 3: five expected goals and just one expected goal for the

730
00:31:26,200 --> 00:31:28,479
Speaker 3: seventy minutes that they played down a man. So I

731
00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:30,680
Speaker 3: do think that there is a world where Chelsea does

732
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:32,520
Speaker 3: win this match. But we have seen this time and

733
00:31:32,560 --> 00:31:35,280
Speaker 3: time again with these tuoqul sides. They look to grind

734
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:38,600
Speaker 3: out results, especially away from home, and until they show

735
00:31:38,680 --> 00:31:42,880
Speaker 3: me an ability to create separation and create consistent scoring chances,

736
00:31:43,280 --> 00:31:46,360
Speaker 3: I'm just not going to really buy into it. Remember,

737
00:31:46,640 --> 00:31:50,960
Speaker 3: Chelsea closed minus one fifty against Everton just two weeks ago,

738
00:31:51,480 --> 00:31:53,120
Speaker 3: and I think Leeds is a better team than Everton.

739
00:31:53,120 --> 00:31:55,040
Speaker 3: I've got them projected as a better team than Everton

740
00:31:55,680 --> 00:31:57,560
Speaker 3: and so I show value here on Leeds and I

741
00:31:57,560 --> 00:31:59,600
Speaker 3: think Chelsea should only be about minus one forty five.

742
00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:03,600
Speaker 3: So that's even after upgrading Chelsea off of those two

743
00:32:03,600 --> 00:32:06,560
Speaker 3: performances where I thought they were pretty good. So overall,

744
00:32:07,000 --> 00:32:08,880
Speaker 3: even though I now again have Chelsea as the third

745
00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,760
Speaker 3: best team in the prem you mentioned it, Leeds also

746
00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:14,240
Speaker 3: gets a bump because they've played really well, created over

747
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 3: two expected goals against Southampton. We're clearly the better side

748
00:32:17,880 --> 00:32:21,520
Speaker 3: on the opening weekend as well against Wolves. So their

749
00:32:21,560 --> 00:32:23,520
Speaker 3: ability to kind of play without the ball, let the

750
00:32:23,560 --> 00:32:26,479
Speaker 3: opponent have the ball and then wait for their moments

751
00:32:26,520 --> 00:32:28,640
Speaker 3: to press, I think plays pretty well here in this

752
00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:31,560
Speaker 3: game against Chelsea. I do expect Chelsea to dominate the possession.

753
00:32:31,600 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 3: But again, Golo Conte going off with a potential injury

754
00:32:34,960 --> 00:32:37,640
Speaker 3: against Spurs as a concern, and I'm going to take

755
00:32:37,680 --> 00:32:38,280
Speaker 3: leads to plus one.

756
00:32:38,800 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 4: All right, let's move on to the other nine am

757
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,000
Speaker 4: start on Sunday. That's west Ham plus one to twenty

758
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 4: five at home against Brighton plus two to fifteen, the

759
00:32:45,280 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 4: draws plus two forty. I'm pretty sure how this conversation

760
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:48,920
Speaker 4: is going to go. So beja, They'll let you kick

761
00:32:48,920 --> 00:32:49,240
Speaker 4: it off.

762
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:51,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean you could say I'm in west Ham.

763
00:32:51,200 --> 00:32:55,880
Speaker 1: They were pretty kind of unlucky to lose to Nottingham

764
00:32:55,880 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: Forest last weekend. But this is going to be a

765
00:32:58,400 --> 00:33:00,680
Speaker 1: much different type of a p I mean, they were

766
00:33:00,720 --> 00:33:03,200
Speaker 1: able to control possession against Ntingham forcet. They're not gonna

767
00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:05,120
Speaker 1: be able to do that here against Brighton. I mean defensively,

768
00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,000
Speaker 1: I still have a lot of question marks about west Ham.

769
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:10,160
Speaker 1: A Gerde still recovering from mankele surgery. Obona's questionable. They've

770
00:33:10,160 --> 00:33:13,480
Speaker 1: sold the up, so who's is we be going to

771
00:33:13,600 --> 00:33:16,520
Speaker 1: roll with Craig Dawson and Kurt Zuma again because that

772
00:33:16,520 --> 00:33:18,920
Speaker 1: didn't work last year. I mean they allowed it together

773
00:33:19,000 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 1: when they played they allowed one point four to five

774
00:33:20,800 --> 00:33:24,240
Speaker 1: actually for ninety minutes. So with Obona actually in the lineup,

775
00:33:24,280 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 1: it's one point one to five expected goals for per

776
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,560
Speaker 1: ninety minutes, so he does make a big difference. What

777
00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:32,040
Speaker 1: I'm worried about is what west Ham is going to

778
00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 1: be able to do to create anything offensively against and

779
00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,120
Speaker 1: they haven't which they haven't been able to do against

780
00:33:37,120 --> 00:33:38,880
Speaker 1: some of the top defenses in the Premier League. So

781
00:33:39,000 --> 00:33:42,200
Speaker 1: last season against the top six defenses by non penalty

782
00:33:42,200 --> 00:33:45,880
Speaker 1: expected goals, Brighton was sixth. West Ham created one point

783
00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 1: one expected goals per ninety minutes. Against the rest of

784
00:33:48,000 --> 00:33:50,880
Speaker 1: the Premier Premier League they averaged one point four expected

785
00:33:50,880 --> 00:33:53,640
Speaker 1: goal per ninety minutes. Additionally, they just played Brighton on

786
00:33:53,680 --> 00:33:55,640
Speaker 1: the final day of the season last year and Brighton

787
00:33:55,680 --> 00:33:57,280
Speaker 1: paced it in three to one and one On next

788
00:33:57,280 --> 00:33:59,959
Speaker 1: g one point seven to point three. And you know

789
00:34:00,080 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 1: west Ham what they do well offensively, Brighton is able

790
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:05,360
Speaker 1: to count that. So you look last year west Ham

791
00:34:05,600 --> 00:34:07,959
Speaker 1: number one team in the Premier League and Crosses completed

792
00:34:07,960 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: the paneled area. Brighton was fourth defensively, west Ham fifth

793
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,640
Speaker 1: and big scoring chances created, Brighton fourth and big scoring

794
00:34:14,719 --> 00:34:17,560
Speaker 1: chances allowed. And also west Ham's got to play a

795
00:34:17,600 --> 00:34:21,960
Speaker 1: Europa Conference League qualification playoff against Viborg on Thursday, so

796
00:34:22,520 --> 00:34:25,200
Speaker 1: it's the first leg, so i'd imagine that some of

797
00:34:25,200 --> 00:34:26,839
Speaker 1: the starters are probably going to play in that one.

798
00:34:26,960 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 1: So h yeah, I love Brighton. Here I only west

799
00:34:30,000 --> 00:34:31,840
Speaker 1: Ham projected at plus one fifty four, so I like

800
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 1: broad Brighton drawn o Bett at plus one twenty eight.

801
00:34:35,120 --> 00:34:38,080
Speaker 4: We're of course huge, huge viboy.

802
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:39,960
Speaker 1: Of course we're huge fans.

803
00:34:40,760 --> 00:34:44,160
Speaker 4: Action Network's parent company, Better Collective are part owners of

804
00:34:44,239 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 4: five Work, So.

805
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:48,080
Speaker 1: There are seventy percent owners, so are they are the

806
00:34:48,200 --> 00:34:51,560
Speaker 1: owners of Viborg pretty much owners up ten to one

807
00:34:51,600 --> 00:34:52,800
Speaker 1: on that ten to one on Thursday.

808
00:34:52,800 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 4: By the way, get in on it, Anthony, anything here

809
00:34:55,680 --> 00:34:57,160
Speaker 4: Brighton and west Ham.

810
00:34:57,239 --> 00:35:00,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'll mak it three for three Brighton in my

811
00:35:00,080 --> 00:35:01,080
Speaker 3: projections as a pick them.

812
00:35:01,080 --> 00:35:02,719
Speaker 2: I've bet this match every.

813
00:35:02,480 --> 00:35:04,799
Speaker 3: Time they've played in the last two years. I bet

814
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:07,040
Speaker 3: Brighton against west Ham at the end of twenty twenty one.

815
00:35:07,080 --> 00:35:09,040
Speaker 3: I bet Brighton in both meetings last year. They cash

816
00:35:09,040 --> 00:35:11,759
Speaker 3: tickets for me both times. And the market continues to

817
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:13,400
Speaker 3: be too high on the Hammers and too low on

818
00:35:13,400 --> 00:35:15,800
Speaker 3: the Seagulls, and this matchup especially. I agree with Bjay

819
00:35:16,200 --> 00:35:19,440
Speaker 3: that Brighton has actually improved considerably in defensive transition in

820
00:35:19,480 --> 00:35:21,200
Speaker 3: the last year, and that was actually I thought the

821
00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:24,399
Speaker 3: biggest improvement they made under Potter last year was their

822
00:35:24,440 --> 00:35:27,200
Speaker 3: ability to prevent those kind of transition moments from really

823
00:35:27,200 --> 00:35:29,919
Speaker 3: getting them. And I think they've come from more time

824
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:32,560
Speaker 3: in this system and more structure under Potter, and I

825
00:35:32,560 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 3: think that is taking away what west Ham relies so

826
00:35:35,680 --> 00:35:39,040
Speaker 3: heavily on for scoring. Skamaka has not impressed thus far.

827
00:35:39,560 --> 00:35:42,320
Speaker 3: Antonio continues to look more like, you know the mcaal

828
00:35:42,320 --> 00:35:45,240
Speaker 3: Antonio before the breakout that he had in twenty twenty.

829
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:48,799
Speaker 3: So I'm gonna take the Seagulls. I took them plus

830
00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:50,600
Speaker 3: a quarter at minus one ten. I also liked them

831
00:35:50,600 --> 00:35:52,439
Speaker 3: on the drawn no bet line at plus one twenty five.

832
00:35:52,840 --> 00:35:55,200
Speaker 3: I project Brighton at plus one oh five on the

833
00:35:55,239 --> 00:35:57,080
Speaker 3: drawn no bet line. So I've got this pretty much

834
00:35:57,120 --> 00:35:59,799
Speaker 3: a toss up, and I think at plus one twenty

835
00:35:59,800 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 3: five or if you want to take the quarter of

836
00:36:01,200 --> 00:36:03,400
Speaker 3: a goal, because Brighton loves a draw, you'll still win

837
00:36:03,440 --> 00:36:03,919
Speaker 3: half your bet.

838
00:36:04,280 --> 00:36:05,239
Speaker 2: I love the Sea goals here.

839
00:36:05,320 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm on the money line plus two fifteen Brighton.

840
00:36:08,360 --> 00:36:10,400
Speaker 4: They're the better team in the matchup right now, at

841
00:36:10,400 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 4: this very moment. They are better than west Ham. The

842
00:36:13,080 --> 00:36:16,720
Speaker 4: eleven thirty matchup on Sundays. You know, I guess City's

843
00:36:17,120 --> 00:36:20,919
Speaker 4: first significant test of the season, considering what west Ham

844
00:36:21,160 --> 00:36:24,799
Speaker 4: rolled out against them in Week one. They're going to

845
00:36:24,840 --> 00:36:27,839
Speaker 4: the Northeast to take on Newcastle the Magpies plus seven

846
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,680
Speaker 4: fifty at home, City minus do seventy five on the

847
00:36:30,760 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 4: road of the draws plus four hundred. We talk a

848
00:36:33,040 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 4: lot last season about City unders, about how just with

849
00:36:36,880 --> 00:36:38,920
Speaker 4: good teams. The over is always going to be a

850
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 4: little inflated because people will see Kevin de Bruyne, Earling Holland,

851
00:36:43,719 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 4: Phil Foden, perhaps Bernardo Silva if he sticks around, Rhian Maras, etc.

852
00:36:48,760 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 4: Go down the list and they just think, you know,

853
00:36:51,040 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 4: they're going to be goals in the city side. City

854
00:36:53,520 --> 00:36:57,279
Speaker 4: can cover three and over under three in the first

855
00:36:57,360 --> 00:36:59,319
Speaker 4: twenty five minutes of a game if they really wanted to,

856
00:37:00,000 --> 00:37:01,840
Speaker 4: and that usually puts some value on the under. I

857
00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:05,120
Speaker 4: think it's a good bet here because of how patient

858
00:37:05,200 --> 00:37:09,400
Speaker 4: Manchester City is, like they just they are kind of lumbering.

859
00:37:09,440 --> 00:37:11,040
Speaker 4: They'll put you to sleep and then they'll find the

860
00:37:11,120 --> 00:37:13,960
Speaker 4: right path. That's how pet wants them to play. And

861
00:37:14,480 --> 00:37:17,439
Speaker 4: I just don't think Newcastle is the team that's going

862
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:19,799
Speaker 4: to bring them out of that shell, even at home.

863
00:37:19,840 --> 00:37:23,280
Speaker 4: So I like to underhere at three minus point fifteen.

864
00:37:24,040 --> 00:37:26,120
Speaker 4: Other than that, like, I don't have anything to say

865
00:37:26,120 --> 00:37:27,640
Speaker 4: about the money line. I think the price is still

866
00:37:27,640 --> 00:37:30,959
Speaker 4: a little too low on Newcastle to'll be interesting. BJ.

867
00:37:31,360 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 4: What do you have here?

868
00:37:32,840 --> 00:37:36,360
Speaker 1: Yeah, something similar both team to score no even money.

869
00:37:36,400 --> 00:37:40,359
Speaker 1: I mean City rightfully so massive favored again. First two

870
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:44,839
Speaker 1: matches they've looked fantastic, especially defensively. I mean point five

871
00:37:44,920 --> 00:37:47,960
Speaker 1: total ext you allowed nine shots and seventeen touches in

872
00:37:47,960 --> 00:37:51,360
Speaker 1: their own penalty here. Those are dominant dominant type numbers,

873
00:37:51,560 --> 00:37:53,520
Speaker 1: and I mean this is just continuation of last season

874
00:37:53,520 --> 00:37:56,440
Speaker 1: when they only allowed zero point sixty four non penalty

875
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,480
Speaker 1: expect goals for matching. We're number one in pretty much

876
00:37:58,480 --> 00:38:02,480
Speaker 1: every single defensive metrics. And I mean listen, Newcastle, they

877
00:38:02,480 --> 00:38:06,200
Speaker 1: were bad offensively against Brighton. I mean they created point

878
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,319
Speaker 1: two expected goals, four shots and fourteen touches in the

879
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:11,319
Speaker 1: penalty area. So what do you think they're gonna do

880
00:38:11,320 --> 00:38:13,880
Speaker 1: against City? I mean We've talked about it many times,

881
00:38:13,880 --> 00:38:18,439
Speaker 1: but Newcastle after the January transfer window only averaged one

882
00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 1: point two expected goals per ninety minutes. I mean their

883
00:38:21,800 --> 00:38:24,560
Speaker 1: last ten matches of the season, they only created five

884
00:38:24,600 --> 00:38:27,640
Speaker 1: big scoring chances. So I mean they got paceted by

885
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,840
Speaker 1: City five nothing towards the end of last season. And

886
00:38:29,920 --> 00:38:33,600
Speaker 1: City's probably gonna hold sixty five to seventy five percent

887
00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 1: possession because Newcastle has shown that when they do play

888
00:38:36,320 --> 00:38:39,080
Speaker 1: bigger sides, they tend to sit in defensively and they

889
00:38:39,080 --> 00:38:44,040
Speaker 1: basically just send Allen Saint maximum and Gamarees and Callum

890
00:38:44,040 --> 00:38:46,759
Speaker 1: Wilson just out on Island's encounters to hope that they

891
00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:49,040
Speaker 1: can create something, which that's just not going to work

892
00:38:49,040 --> 00:38:52,560
Speaker 1: against City because in the other spectrum, I mean Newcastle,

893
00:38:53,040 --> 00:38:55,560
Speaker 1: even after the January trans window, they were dead last

894
00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:57,800
Speaker 1: in offensive pass for defensive action. They were the worst

895
00:38:57,800 --> 00:39:00,000
Speaker 1: team at playing for pressure. Well City was number one

896
00:39:00,160 --> 00:39:02,880
Speaker 1: and passes for defensive action and they just smother you

897
00:39:03,160 --> 00:39:05,800
Speaker 1: in your own final third. So I don't see Newcastle

898
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 1: coming out and being able to create anything of value.

899
00:39:07,680 --> 00:39:10,759
Speaker 1: They faced five big six sides after the January trans winterer,

900
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:13,239
Speaker 1: they only created over one expectable once. It was against

901
00:39:13,320 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: Arsenal in the second to last game of the season.

902
00:39:15,160 --> 00:39:18,640
Speaker 1: So I'm playing Bolting to score No. At plus one hundred.

903
00:39:18,640 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: I have projected the minus one thirty, so I think

904
00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:23,360
Speaker 1: you're gonna get some good value on City getting a

905
00:39:23,360 --> 00:39:25,600
Speaker 1: clean sheet or you know, if a red card happens

906
00:39:25,640 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 1: and then there could be some craziness, so this could

907
00:39:27,640 --> 00:39:30,239
Speaker 1: be ends up being zero zero. So yeah, bolting to

908
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,560
Speaker 1: score No. At minus one o five for me.

909
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:36,400
Speaker 3: And it's the classic example of not wanting to overreact

910
00:39:36,400 --> 00:39:36,959
Speaker 3: to one game.

911
00:39:37,160 --> 00:39:38,080
Speaker 2: And you know, we.

912
00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:42,000
Speaker 3: Talked, I read off the stats. I said, Wow, Newcastle

913
00:39:42,080 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 3: was super dominant in the first matchup at home against

914
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:46,800
Speaker 3: Notingam Forest. We maybe we need to reassess what we

915
00:39:46,800 --> 00:39:48,400
Speaker 3: think of Forest. Maybe we need to reassess we think

916
00:39:48,400 --> 00:39:50,839
Speaker 3: of Newcastle, But probably not, because reality is that they

917
00:39:50,840 --> 00:39:53,400
Speaker 3: probably just had a great game. And I think we

918
00:39:53,440 --> 00:39:55,640
Speaker 3: talk on this podcast a good amount about teams who

919
00:39:55,680 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 3: are bad favorites and good underdogs, you know, like the

920
00:39:57,719 --> 00:39:59,560
Speaker 3: Palace and the Brightons of the world that we like

921
00:39:59,600 --> 00:40:02,359
Speaker 3: to bet because they're you know, they struggle a little bit. Well,

922
00:40:02,400 --> 00:40:04,359
Speaker 3: I think Newcastle might kind of be the opposite, right.

923
00:40:04,840 --> 00:40:06,799
Speaker 3: They've raised the floor of their team enough to the

924
00:40:06,800 --> 00:40:09,560
Speaker 3: point where when they play these weaker midfields, these weaker teams,

925
00:40:09,800 --> 00:40:11,600
Speaker 3: they are able to control the possession and maybe they

926
00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:13,880
Speaker 3: don't create a ton of chances, but they dominate to

927
00:40:13,920 --> 00:40:16,840
Speaker 3: flow and then they go up against the bigger sides,

928
00:40:16,840 --> 00:40:19,279
Speaker 3: like bj just mentioned the stats, and they are getting

929
00:40:19,320 --> 00:40:21,480
Speaker 3: absolutely trucked. I mean, the field tilt in the match

930
00:40:21,520 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 3: against Brighton was sixty five percent for the Seagulls, thirty

931
00:40:24,200 --> 00:40:27,239
Speaker 3: five percent for Newcastle, only point two expected goals, point

932
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:30,200
Speaker 3: eight expected threat. I mean, it's really concerning stuff for

933
00:40:30,360 --> 00:40:33,400
Speaker 3: Newcastle going up against these top sides because of how

934
00:40:33,400 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 3: bad they looked against Liverpool in City last year as well.

935
00:40:36,600 --> 00:40:39,279
Speaker 3: Joe Linton Dimras, I like them, but you know, they

936
00:40:39,280 --> 00:40:40,680
Speaker 3: looked a little bit out of their depth in the

937
00:40:40,719 --> 00:40:43,360
Speaker 3: last you know, matches against the bigger sides, So I

938
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:46,719
Speaker 3: would lean toward towards City actually in this matchup, but

939
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:48,800
Speaker 3: I'm passing here. They are a little bit infloyed.

940
00:40:49,120 --> 00:40:51,640
Speaker 4: Yeah. I think a funny thing happened with that City

941
00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:55,000
Speaker 4: Newcastle match last season because Liverpool was just on this

942
00:40:55,040 --> 00:40:57,520
Speaker 4: crazy run and everyone was trying to find out where's

943
00:40:57,560 --> 00:41:00,239
Speaker 4: the kind of hurdle that that city's going to all

944
00:41:00,239 --> 00:41:03,279
Speaker 4: over and everyone pointed to the Newcastle match and they

945
00:41:03,280 --> 00:41:05,960
Speaker 4: were able to just handle it with a plump like

946
00:41:06,000 --> 00:41:09,480
Speaker 4: they always do. So, yeah, the under for me is

947
00:41:10,080 --> 00:41:12,239
Speaker 4: the way to go. That wraps up the Premier League

948
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:15,400
Speaker 4: for this week. And let's move to the Bundesliga. Anthony.

949
00:41:15,440 --> 00:41:17,439
Speaker 4: Let's start with you, because you and I are kind

950
00:41:17,440 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 4: of on similar pages here.

951
00:41:18,719 --> 00:41:20,240
Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna buy Mines again.

952
00:41:20,480 --> 00:41:23,279
Speaker 3: Augsburg burned me last week with an impressive, you know,

953
00:41:23,480 --> 00:41:26,799
Speaker 3: road win at Levercus and pretty undeserved, but I'm really

954
00:41:26,840 --> 00:41:29,840
Speaker 3: just tired of Osburg as a team that they continue

955
00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:32,919
Speaker 3: to score goals from nowhere. I mean, they sold their

956
00:41:32,960 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 3: top striker and yet have continued to produce enough chances

957
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:41,320
Speaker 3: to you know, get a result. And you look across

958
00:41:41,320 --> 00:41:44,920
Speaker 3: the board and we look at the last twenty one games,

959
00:41:45,239 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 3: so that's from right before the Christmas break last year

960
00:41:48,320 --> 00:41:51,839
Speaker 3: in the Bundesliga to including the first two games where

961
00:41:51,840 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 3: they did beat levercuzs and on the road. They were

962
00:41:54,560 --> 00:41:57,560
Speaker 3: the second worst team except for Armenia Bilfeld who is

963
00:41:57,600 --> 00:42:01,920
Speaker 3: no longer in the Bundesliga, and my the Buneselegga team

964
00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:05,719
Speaker 3: of the podcast continued to have strong performances. They didn't

965
00:42:05,719 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 3: beat Unjon Berlin. It was a pretty dead game. It

966
00:42:08,040 --> 00:42:10,440
Speaker 3: was almost nothing happened in the match. But those are

967
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:14,000
Speaker 3: two top six, top seven teams who are stellar defensively,

968
00:42:14,280 --> 00:42:16,719
Speaker 3: and I don't expect Osburg to have the same kind

969
00:42:16,719 --> 00:42:21,120
Speaker 3: of counterattacking success they're so relyingt on in this matchup

970
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 3: against Mines, there's plus one twenty out there. I make

971
00:42:24,600 --> 00:42:27,000
Speaker 3: Mines odds on at minus one ten, so I would

972
00:42:27,000 --> 00:42:29,200
Speaker 3: take them at anything plus money in this match.

973
00:42:29,560 --> 00:42:32,640
Speaker 4: Yeah, I like Mines again this weekend. Big surprise, but

974
00:42:32,680 --> 00:42:35,720
Speaker 4: I'm going to parlay event with the team that burned

975
00:42:35,800 --> 00:42:39,840
Speaker 4: us last weekend. Buyer Leverkusen a parlay plus two thirty

976
00:42:39,840 --> 00:42:42,520
Speaker 4: seven on the money line. You made the case for mines,

977
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:44,600
Speaker 4: I'm with you one hundred percent. And then Leverkusen's taken

978
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:48,360
Speaker 4: on Happenheim, a very high event team. Lever Cusin's defense

979
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:50,960
Speaker 4: rated out top four last year in the Bundesliga, so

980
00:42:51,080 --> 00:42:54,120
Speaker 4: should be able to handle the offense from Hoppenheim. On

981
00:42:54,160 --> 00:42:56,919
Speaker 4: the other end, the opposite is kind of not true

982
00:42:56,960 --> 00:43:00,279
Speaker 4: for Hoppenheim, who struggled defensively or just mediocre last year,

983
00:43:00,320 --> 00:43:04,120
Speaker 4: and this Leverkusen offense was grated out as a top

984
00:43:04,200 --> 00:43:07,160
Speaker 4: six side in the Bundesliga, So that parlay to me

985
00:43:07,239 --> 00:43:09,759
Speaker 4: looks pretty interesting at plus two thirty seven.

986
00:43:10,760 --> 00:43:14,280
Speaker 3: Both of those numbers came down considerably after the last results,

987
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:16,279
Speaker 3: which I thought was interesting. In Osburg winning moved the

988
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,960
Speaker 3: market about fifteen cents on mines and Leverkusen was minus

989
00:43:20,000 --> 00:43:22,040
Speaker 3: one eight either nine oine of minus one fifty on

990
00:43:22,120 --> 00:43:23,879
Speaker 3: the money line, so you're you're buying low on both

991
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:25,319
Speaker 3: of those kind of in selling high in.

992
00:43:25,239 --> 00:43:26,720
Speaker 2: The situation off of the Fluke result.

993
00:43:26,920 --> 00:43:29,839
Speaker 4: It's just good betting hygiene, that's what that is. That's

994
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:33,000
Speaker 4: the good betting hygiene par moneyline parlay in the Bundesliga BJ.

995
00:43:33,120 --> 00:43:34,080
Speaker 4: What do you have in Germany?

996
00:43:34,239 --> 00:43:36,839
Speaker 1: Well, I also love mines, and if you believe in

997
00:43:36,840 --> 00:43:39,800
Speaker 1: expected goals in advanced metrics, you have to take mines

998
00:43:39,960 --> 00:43:42,600
Speaker 1: this weekend. But I'm gonna go with Wolfsburg minus one

999
00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:44,040
Speaker 1: ten is my best bet. I think it's had a

1000
00:43:44,040 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 1: little low here against the newly promoted side in Shaalka.

1001
00:43:47,239 --> 00:43:49,759
Speaker 1: I mean, Wolfsburg was nothing special last year. They were

1002
00:43:49,800 --> 00:43:53,640
Speaker 1: between tenth or twelfth and pretty much every single offensive metric,

1003
00:43:53,719 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 1: but they did play thirteen matches without their best attacker,

1004
00:43:56,200 --> 00:43:59,279
Speaker 1: Lucas Metcha. With him on the pitch, their expected gold

1005
00:43:59,280 --> 00:44:01,840
Speaker 1: the frenchal per ninety minutes goes up point four, so

1006
00:44:01,960 --> 00:44:04,520
Speaker 1: he's makes quite a big difference, and he's finally healthy

1007
00:44:04,560 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 1: this season. Their first two matches they drew with Werder Bremen,

1008
00:44:07,719 --> 00:44:09,800
Speaker 1: another newly promoted side too too, but they wanted to

1009
00:44:09,840 --> 00:44:12,080
Speaker 1: expected goals one two point seven, and then they lost

1010
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:14,560
Speaker 1: to Bayern last week to nothing, but they did create

1011
00:44:14,600 --> 00:44:17,040
Speaker 1: one expected goal and only allowed byron one point eight

1012
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:20,080
Speaker 1: expected goals. On the flip side, Shallca. You know, their

1013
00:44:20,080 --> 00:44:22,040
Speaker 1: first match against Cologne they did get a red card,

1014
00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:24,160
Speaker 1: so you can't really put too much into it because

1015
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:27,120
Speaker 1: they did allow three point nine expected goals. Then last

1016
00:44:27,120 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 1: week and they drew with Glodboc two too, they had

1017
00:44:29,000 --> 00:44:31,640
Speaker 1: a penalty in stoppage time. When you take away that penalty,

1018
00:44:31,640 --> 00:44:34,000
Speaker 1: they only created a point eight non penalty expected goals.

1019
00:44:34,280 --> 00:44:38,320
Speaker 1: And Shauka really wasn't that dominant in the second division

1020
00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:40,040
Speaker 1: last year. I mean they had a point four to

1021
00:44:40,080 --> 00:44:43,600
Speaker 1: seven xtgal per ninety minutes allowed actually differential per ninety minutes,

1022
00:44:43,960 --> 00:44:47,279
Speaker 1: and they allowed around one point five expected goals per

1023
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:50,319
Speaker 1: match in the second division. You know, teams coming up

1024
00:44:50,400 --> 00:44:52,879
Speaker 1: from the bond from the second Division to the Bundesliga

1025
00:44:53,160 --> 00:44:56,520
Speaker 1: see about a twenty nine percent increase and their expected

1026
00:44:56,560 --> 00:44:58,080
Speaker 1: goals allowed. So I mean Shallca is going to be

1027
00:44:58,120 --> 00:45:01,440
Speaker 1: around to a one point nine one point nin expectable

1028
00:45:01,480 --> 00:45:04,080
Speaker 1: per ninety a loud defense that would put them near

1029
00:45:04,120 --> 00:45:06,520
Speaker 1: the bottom. So I think this is a good price.

1030
00:45:06,520 --> 00:45:08,960
Speaker 1: In Wolfsburg here, I've been projected at minus one thirty nine,

1031
00:45:09,040 --> 00:45:10,759
Speaker 1: so love mit minus one ten would played up to

1032
00:45:10,800 --> 00:45:11,640
Speaker 1: minus one twenty two.

1033
00:45:11,960 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 4: All right, now into Spain, Anthony, you and I are

1034
00:45:14,440 --> 00:45:16,680
Speaker 4: once again on the same page. I'll let you kick

1035
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:17,800
Speaker 4: this one off in Spain.

1036
00:45:18,000 --> 00:45:20,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take Virial plus a half a goal

1037
00:45:20,440 --> 00:45:25,520
Speaker 3: at Atletico Madrid. And Letico had a good opening weekend result.

1038
00:45:25,560 --> 00:45:28,080
Speaker 3: Bja shaking his head and know it me because he

1039
00:45:28,239 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 3: probably loves.

1040
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:30,520
Speaker 2: His Diego Simone boys.

1041
00:45:30,800 --> 00:45:33,800
Speaker 3: But well, I guess we're gonna disagree.

1042
00:45:34,160 --> 00:45:35,560
Speaker 2: But Virial, you know.

1043
00:45:35,520 --> 00:45:37,520
Speaker 3: In the second half of last season and we bet

1044
00:45:37,520 --> 00:45:40,279
Speaker 3: them a lot down the stretch was one of was

1045
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:42,840
Speaker 3: the third best team in Spain for the majority of

1046
00:45:42,880 --> 00:45:46,120
Speaker 3: the second half of the season. And Atletico Madrid once

1047
00:45:46,160 --> 00:45:49,000
Speaker 3: again an excellent opening three zero win on the road

1048
00:45:49,040 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 3: at Gaitafe. But you look at the underlying metrics and

1049
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 3: they did it on about one and one point one

1050
00:45:54,640 --> 00:45:58,120
Speaker 3: expected goals. Alvaro Morata, the greatest finish of the world

1051
00:45:58,160 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 3: has ever seen, is back the goals.

1052
00:46:00,760 --> 00:46:00,880
Speaker 4: Uh.

1053
00:46:01,480 --> 00:46:03,640
Speaker 3: I do not expect that to continue forever.

1054
00:46:03,680 --> 00:46:04,680
Speaker 2: He will not run that well.

1055
00:46:05,000 --> 00:46:06,960
Speaker 3: But I do think Atletico did get a little bit

1056
00:46:07,000 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 3: overvalued here. Bj and I are clearly in very disagreement

1057
00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:13,400
Speaker 3: because I have ad LETTI odds or excuse me, for

1058
00:46:13,560 --> 00:46:15,400
Speaker 3: real odds on to get a point here. So I

1059
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:18,040
Speaker 3: do like the Yellow Submarine our.

1060
00:46:17,960 --> 00:46:19,160
Speaker 2: Favorite team in Spain.

1061
00:46:19,200 --> 00:46:20,799
Speaker 3: Maybe I don't know who is our favorite team in Spain?

1062
00:46:20,800 --> 00:46:21,239
Speaker 1: Do we have one?

1063
00:46:21,560 --> 00:46:24,680
Speaker 4: I mean it was it was Real Associate Dad, then it.

1064
00:46:24,640 --> 00:46:26,399
Speaker 2: Was until the spring when they Yeah, then.

1065
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 4: It was.

1066
00:46:28,480 --> 00:46:30,080
Speaker 1: You know just Ate.

1067
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, we love them well, but I'm with you. I

1068
00:46:32,640 --> 00:46:34,640
Speaker 4: like I like the money line. I'd be a real

1069
00:46:34,719 --> 00:46:37,800
Speaker 4: like a good offensive team could who could give Diego

1070
00:46:37,880 --> 00:46:39,799
Speaker 4: Simoni a run for his money. But I will tell

1071
00:46:39,800 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 4: you that once the champions that he comes around, I'll

1072
00:46:41,760 --> 00:46:45,680
Speaker 4: be all over at Letty once again. Uh bj anything

1073
00:46:45,680 --> 00:46:46,360
Speaker 4: for you in Spain?

1074
00:46:46,680 --> 00:46:50,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I love a snoozer an Athletic bill bo and

1075
00:46:50,960 --> 00:46:53,680
Speaker 1: Valencia both teams to score no and minus one fifteen,

1076
00:46:53,880 --> 00:46:56,480
Speaker 1: So you know, Beboo was pretty dominant against my Orca

1077
00:46:56,480 --> 00:46:58,680
Speaker 1: in their first match one point six two point four

1078
00:46:58,760 --> 00:47:01,919
Speaker 1: on xt G zero's Yearo draw. Last season, we talked

1079
00:47:01,920 --> 00:47:04,880
Speaker 1: about a lot fantastic defensive team fifth and expectacles allowed,

1080
00:47:04,880 --> 00:47:07,560
Speaker 1: third and big scoring chances allowed, and in matches that

1081
00:47:07,600 --> 00:47:11,640
Speaker 1: they didn't face Real Madrid, Barcelona or Athletic Madrid, they

1082
00:47:11,680 --> 00:47:14,160
Speaker 1: only allowed their opponents to create over one expected goal

1083
00:47:14,320 --> 00:47:18,280
Speaker 1: nine times in thirty two matches. That's pretty impressive. Valencia

1084
00:47:18,600 --> 00:47:22,120
Speaker 1: was horrific offensively last season, created point eighty five non

1085
00:47:22,160 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 1: penalty expected goals per match, ten point four shots per

1086
00:47:24,840 --> 00:47:27,719
Speaker 1: ninety and had the fewest ten plus pass sequences in

1087
00:47:27,800 --> 00:47:30,279
Speaker 1: La Liga by quite a large margin. They got a

1088
00:47:30,280 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 1: new manager, Gatuo, who previously managed AC Milan and Napoli.

1089
00:47:34,960 --> 00:47:36,560
Speaker 1: He'll bring them out of a four to four to two.

1090
00:47:36,640 --> 00:47:38,440
Speaker 1: He'll play some version of a four three three or

1091
00:47:38,440 --> 00:47:39,800
Speaker 1: a four to two three one, so they'd be a

1092
00:47:39,880 --> 00:47:42,680
Speaker 1: little bit more threatening, a little bit more aggressive. But

1093
00:47:43,440 --> 00:47:45,840
Speaker 1: I mean they just sold their best attacking player Greatest

1094
00:47:45,880 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 1: to Wolves, who had eleven goals and six assist late

1095
00:47:48,640 --> 00:47:52,120
Speaker 1: for them last season. So Valencia, I mean they were

1096
00:47:52,239 --> 00:47:54,680
Speaker 1: they were pretty conservative. They were a decent defensive team.

1097
00:47:54,840 --> 00:47:58,200
Speaker 1: In eleven of their thirty eight matches last year, one

1098
00:47:58,280 --> 00:48:02,200
Speaker 1: side failed to create at least one expected goal. And

1099
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:04,160
Speaker 1: you know, the two times they faced Athletic bill Bao

1100
00:48:04,400 --> 00:48:06,799
Speaker 1: last season, they only combined for point nine expected goals.

1101
00:48:06,800 --> 00:48:09,000
Speaker 1: So at a price of minus one fifteen for both

1102
00:48:09,000 --> 00:48:10,520
Speaker 1: team to score, now I have a projected at minus

1103
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:12,600
Speaker 1: one sixty one, so I like the value on that

1104
00:48:13,800 --> 00:48:14,200
Speaker 1: all right.

1105
00:48:14,200 --> 00:48:16,480
Speaker 4: Let's move on to Syria. I will go right back

1106
00:48:16,480 --> 00:48:17,799
Speaker 4: to you BJ Yeah.

1107
00:48:17,840 --> 00:48:20,280
Speaker 1: I mean, this is another spot that I've had circled

1108
00:48:20,280 --> 00:48:23,120
Speaker 1: for quite a long time. Torino plus half a goal

1109
00:48:23,120 --> 00:48:25,520
Speaker 1: minus won forty five or drawn, no bett at anything,

1110
00:48:25,520 --> 00:48:29,720
Speaker 1: plus money against Lotzio Toarno, a team we loved last season,

1111
00:48:29,719 --> 00:48:32,440
Speaker 1: one of the more underrated teams in Syria A. They

1112
00:48:32,520 --> 00:48:35,560
Speaker 1: finished tenth with a plus nine point one expected goal differential.

1113
00:48:36,040 --> 00:48:38,800
Speaker 1: That was better than Loatzio, who finished three spots ahead

1114
00:48:38,800 --> 00:48:42,879
Speaker 1: of them with a plus seven point six expected goal diffrenchial. Torino, Yes,

1115
00:48:42,920 --> 00:48:46,000
Speaker 1: they lost their best defender, Janielsen Bremmer, but they delivered

1116
00:48:46,000 --> 00:48:48,479
Speaker 1: a typical type Turino performance in their first match, beat

1117
00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 1: monz At two to one two point six x GW

1118
00:48:50,560 --> 00:48:53,160
Speaker 1: to one point six. I mean defensively, last season they

1119
00:48:53,160 --> 00:48:55,600
Speaker 1: were third in expected goles allowed, shots per ninety, loud

1120
00:48:55,600 --> 00:48:58,719
Speaker 1: and big scoring chances allowed. That last six big scoring

1121
00:48:58,800 --> 00:49:01,200
Speaker 1: third and big scoring chances allowed is key when you're

1122
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:05,040
Speaker 1: facing Lotzio, because they are the biggest boom or bust

1123
00:49:05,080 --> 00:49:08,360
Speaker 1: offense across the Europe. They were second in big scoring

1124
00:49:08,440 --> 00:49:11,759
Speaker 1: chances last season, but thirteenth in shots per ninety and

1125
00:49:12,000 --> 00:49:15,080
Speaker 1: I'm just going to keep cursing zero Amobile's name until

1126
00:49:15,080 --> 00:49:18,680
Speaker 1: he stops finishing at this stupid, crazy rate. Lazio seventy

1127
00:49:18,680 --> 00:49:22,840
Speaker 1: seven goals off of fifty five expected last season. That's insane.

1128
00:49:23,040 --> 00:49:25,440
Speaker 1: It has to stop. They scored two goals off ever

1129
00:49:25,520 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 1: going to six expected in the first match against Bologna

1130
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 1: despite having ten men. Their goalkeeper got a red cards.

1131
00:49:31,520 --> 00:49:34,160
Speaker 1: They have the second choice goalkeeper. This is dumb. This

1132
00:49:34,239 --> 00:49:36,680
Speaker 1: has to stop. So Torino plus half a goal at

1133
00:49:36,719 --> 00:49:37,759
Speaker 1: minus one forty.

1134
00:49:37,480 --> 00:49:39,880
Speaker 2: Five, I will be joining BJ on Torino. But it

1135
00:49:39,960 --> 00:49:40,480
Speaker 2: was funny.

1136
00:49:41,040 --> 00:49:43,880
Speaker 3: BJ texted me right after Latzo equalized to make it

1137
00:49:43,920 --> 00:49:45,320
Speaker 3: one to one. Remember they were playing.

1138
00:49:45,080 --> 00:49:45,600
Speaker 2: Down a man.

1139
00:49:45,719 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 1: It happens every time.

1140
00:49:46,960 --> 00:49:47,640
Speaker 2: So then I think it.

1141
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:50,640
Speaker 3: Went to ten on ten and he texted me eighty

1142
00:49:50,640 --> 00:49:53,040
Speaker 3: seventh minute, Chiro MOBILEI winner is going to break me.

1143
00:49:53,080 --> 00:49:55,000
Speaker 3: And then I think it was the seventy ninth that

1144
00:49:55,200 --> 00:49:57,799
Speaker 3: of course I got the goaler Tierro Mobile two to

1145
00:49:57,800 --> 00:49:58,400
Speaker 3: one Latsio.

1146
00:49:58,480 --> 00:50:00,480
Speaker 1: It's happen every time, and it's so if.

1147
00:50:00,239 --> 00:50:02,480
Speaker 3: You pulled because if you pull up the Siria table

1148
00:50:02,560 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 3: on the on the FB REF, it's like everything's green

1149
00:50:06,000 --> 00:50:08,040
Speaker 3: and then you just have that one sore thumb, and

1150
00:50:08,040 --> 00:50:10,360
Speaker 3: it's Bologna's dominant performance with no points.

1151
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:11,719
Speaker 2: So it's pretty funny.

1152
00:50:11,440 --> 00:50:13,960
Speaker 3: To look at. But we will, we will be all

1153
00:50:14,000 --> 00:50:16,320
Speaker 3: fitting Lazio at least b J and I will I

1154
00:50:16,360 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 3: will be betting at Alanta at home this match. Last

1155
00:50:19,080 --> 00:50:21,879
Speaker 3: year I remember because I bet Atlanta and lost. They

1156
00:50:21,880 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 3: were an even money home favorite. Now they're a home

1157
00:50:24,760 --> 00:50:28,080
Speaker 3: underdog at plus one seventy. I think that's a.

1158
00:50:27,840 --> 00:50:29,279
Speaker 2: Big overreaction to Oh.

1159
00:50:29,320 --> 00:50:31,719
Speaker 3: I mean, granted, Milan one league, right, but in the

1160
00:50:31,760 --> 00:50:34,719
Speaker 3: second half of the season, Milan ran really well and

1161
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:38,080
Speaker 3: at Alanta, you know, everybody decided it was the end

1162
00:50:38,120 --> 00:50:41,359
Speaker 3: of Atlanta, and it may well be. But I still

1163
00:50:41,400 --> 00:50:43,120
Speaker 3: think we until we get more evident of that, I'm

1164
00:50:43,160 --> 00:50:45,000
Speaker 3: not going to bet against that. They had a plus

1165
00:50:45,080 --> 00:50:47,640
Speaker 3: ten expected gold difference at home last year. Their actual

1166
00:50:47,680 --> 00:50:50,440
Speaker 3: goal difference at home at Atlanta's plus two. So they

1167
00:50:50,520 --> 00:50:52,440
Speaker 3: ran pretty poorly in terms of variance at the g

1168
00:50:52,520 --> 00:50:55,799
Speaker 3: Whist and in Bergamo, and so I think this number

1169
00:50:55,840 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 3: is just a little bit out of control. I think

1170
00:50:57,000 --> 00:50:58,640
Speaker 3: I don't want to still be a favorite there not,

1171
00:50:58,840 --> 00:51:01,320
Speaker 3: so I took them plus one on the drawn to bedline,

1172
00:51:01,800 --> 00:51:02,400
Speaker 3: all right.

1173
00:51:02,480 --> 00:51:06,000
Speaker 4: We'll wrap up with league. Oh BJ, it's all you Yeah.

1174
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:07,800
Speaker 1: Let's just jump in front of a train. LIL plus

1175
00:51:07,840 --> 00:51:11,600
Speaker 1: one plus one twenty against PSG. I mean, LIL has

1176
00:51:11,600 --> 00:51:13,520
Speaker 1: had a lot of changes over the past year, a

1177
00:51:13,520 --> 00:51:15,440
Speaker 1: lot of players have left, they have a new manager,

1178
00:51:15,960 --> 00:51:19,239
Speaker 1: but this is still the team that was second and

1179
00:51:19,280 --> 00:51:22,279
Speaker 1: expected goals allowed and the number one team across all

1180
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:25,239
Speaker 1: five of Europe's top five leagues in big scoring chances allowed.

1181
00:51:25,239 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 1: They allowed seventeen big scoring chances in thirty eight matches

1182
00:51:28,280 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 1: and then at one point last season they went on

1183
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:32,959
Speaker 1: a thirteen match stretch without allowing a big scoring chance.

1184
00:51:33,000 --> 00:51:36,640
Speaker 1: That is so impressive, it's it's crazy. And you know,

1185
00:51:36,719 --> 00:51:38,879
Speaker 1: LIL has kind of been a thorn and PSG side

1186
00:51:38,920 --> 00:51:41,400
Speaker 1: over the past two seasons. They obviously beat them by

1187
00:51:41,440 --> 00:51:44,279
Speaker 1: a point to win the league two seasons ago. Three

1188
00:51:44,320 --> 00:51:46,160
Speaker 1: out of the four meetings over the last two seasons

1189
00:51:46,200 --> 00:51:49,400
Speaker 1: it's been within half of an expected goal. The meeting

1190
00:51:49,480 --> 00:51:51,440
Speaker 1: was not, yeah, you know, the five to one was not,

1191
00:51:51,600 --> 00:51:54,040
Speaker 1: but still, you know, I mean they at home LITL

1192
00:51:54,120 --> 00:51:55,840
Speaker 1: had a plus ten point five expected goal of the

1193
00:51:55,840 --> 00:51:58,120
Speaker 1: French will they only allowed point nine to three actually

1194
00:51:58,160 --> 00:52:01,520
Speaker 1: per match, so they it's still I believe a good

1195
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:04,400
Speaker 1: team that should be somewhere near the top six or

1196
00:52:04,440 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 1: seven in LEE. And I mean I can try and

1197
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:09,400
Speaker 1: poke holes and PSG all I want, but I mean

1198
00:52:09,400 --> 00:52:13,200
Speaker 1: there's they're way way too dominant here in league on

1199
00:52:13,360 --> 00:52:15,520
Speaker 1: But you know there's some infighting going on, you know,

1200
00:52:16,080 --> 00:52:18,680
Speaker 1: Nymar and PSG or fighting with each other, nam aar

1201
00:52:18,760 --> 00:52:21,440
Speaker 1: and killing and bape or fighting with each other. Sergio

1202
00:52:21,520 --> 00:52:25,520
Speaker 1: Ramos is having to play, having to play the what

1203
00:52:25,560 --> 00:52:28,080
Speaker 1: do you call it intermediary, intermediary in between the peace

1204
00:52:28,160 --> 00:52:30,400
Speaker 1: keeper and peace keeper. Yeah, that's a good word for it.

1205
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:33,919
Speaker 1: So you know, where's the focus for PSG right now?

1206
00:52:34,000 --> 00:52:35,600
Speaker 1: Is it really on the field and trying to win

1207
00:52:35,680 --> 00:52:38,440
Speaker 1: the hon or? Do they just care about the Champions League?

1208
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:41,400
Speaker 1: And then who there's Imbappi or Neymar? Just who cares

1209
00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:44,799
Speaker 1: more about who's scoring the goals? So I'll take Little

1210
00:52:44,800 --> 00:52:46,719
Speaker 1: plus one and plus one twenty. I have PSG at

1211
00:52:46,719 --> 00:52:48,520
Speaker 1: minus one forty four. I'll jump in front of the train.

1212
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:50,839
Speaker 1: But I think there's some value on Little here at home.

1213
00:52:51,200 --> 00:52:53,239
Speaker 4: And with that we'll move on to our favorite part

1214
00:52:53,280 --> 00:52:56,520
Speaker 4: but the podcast, our underdog parlay Man.

1215
00:52:56,600 --> 00:52:57,240
Speaker 2: Were we close?

1216
00:52:57,360 --> 00:52:57,839
Speaker 1: We were close?

1217
00:52:57,880 --> 00:53:00,680
Speaker 4: Again last week, which is you know, kind of just what.

1218
00:53:00,600 --> 00:53:03,200
Speaker 2: Metrovitch missed penalty and power Man.

1219
00:53:03,040 --> 00:53:06,160
Speaker 4: Exactly the tune we sing every every weekend.

1220
00:53:06,280 --> 00:53:07,240
Speaker 1: Fifty people.

1221
00:53:07,520 --> 00:53:08,799
Speaker 4: Yeah, it was one hundred.

1222
00:53:08,880 --> 00:53:10,640
Speaker 3: I mean once Metrovich missed, I was like, all right,

1223
00:53:10,640 --> 00:53:12,360
Speaker 3: they're not going to score, but they almost did score.

1224
00:53:12,800 --> 00:53:14,640
Speaker 3: And then Palace when on one nih and I slacked.

1225
00:53:14,640 --> 00:53:17,080
Speaker 3: You guys fing Mitrovitch and then you guys got mad

1226
00:53:17,120 --> 00:53:18,279
Speaker 3: at me. But that was just because I was still

1227
00:53:18,320 --> 00:53:20,960
Speaker 3: mad about learn Yeah, that's nothing to do with nothing

1228
00:53:20,960 --> 00:53:22,120
Speaker 3: to do with Palace leading.

1229
00:53:22,280 --> 00:53:24,680
Speaker 4: No, that's that's mushing it. But you mushed it, You've

1230
00:53:24,920 --> 00:53:28,440
Speaker 4: you're learned from that, and you're still young, so you'll

1231
00:53:28,520 --> 00:53:30,440
Speaker 4: learn not to do it this week when we're knocking

1232
00:53:30,480 --> 00:53:32,880
Speaker 4: on the door Monday, because I'm starting it with Monday

1233
00:53:32,920 --> 00:53:37,320
Speaker 4: Night football. Manchester United plus four twenty five at home

1234
00:53:37,920 --> 00:53:41,239
Speaker 4: against Liverpool. This is just a severe overreaction for a

1235
00:53:41,280 --> 00:53:43,560
Speaker 4: team that was rated as the fifth or sixth best

1236
00:53:43,600 --> 00:53:46,040
Speaker 4: team in the Premier League coming into the year. They've

1237
00:53:46,040 --> 00:53:49,440
Speaker 4: been terrible. Everything's going wrong for Manchester United to the

1238
00:53:49,520 --> 00:53:52,239
Speaker 4: first two weeks in terrible losses to Brighton at home

1239
00:53:52,640 --> 00:53:55,279
Speaker 4: away to Brentford when they lost four nil, but we

1240
00:53:55,320 --> 00:53:57,360
Speaker 4: all know that they are a better team than what

1241
00:53:57,400 --> 00:53:59,799
Speaker 4: they just showed. And who better to bring them out

1242
00:54:00,080 --> 00:54:04,520
Speaker 4: of their kind of woes, their dreariness than their eternal

1243
00:54:04,640 --> 00:54:09,799
Speaker 4: rival Liverpool, who are dealing with several injuries, including some

1244
00:54:09,840 --> 00:54:12,240
Speaker 4: important ones in the midfield, which is the best place,

1245
00:54:12,960 --> 00:54:15,640
Speaker 4: which is where Manchester United's biggest weaknesses, right in the

1246
00:54:15,680 --> 00:54:17,680
Speaker 4: middle of the field. So I actually think this is

1247
00:54:17,800 --> 00:54:20,600
Speaker 4: the best time for Manchester United to be playing Liverpool,

1248
00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:23,600
Speaker 4: as weird as that sounds, both teams will be looking

1249
00:54:23,640 --> 00:54:26,279
Speaker 4: their wounds. One of them is plus four to twenty five,

1250
00:54:26,320 --> 00:54:29,080
Speaker 4: the other one is minus won seventy, prohibitive road favorite.

1251
00:54:29,080 --> 00:54:31,200
Speaker 4: So give me the one at better than four to one.

1252
00:54:31,239 --> 00:54:32,399
Speaker 4: I think you can get them as high as plus

1253
00:54:32,440 --> 00:54:34,920
Speaker 4: four seventy. Still, I think that's a FanDuel. But I'll

1254
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:37,879
Speaker 4: go with the consensus for twenty five because that's where

1255
00:54:37,880 --> 00:54:40,080
Speaker 4: I'm assuming it's going to end up as we get

1256
00:54:40,080 --> 00:54:43,120
Speaker 4: closer to kickoff on Monday, BJ what about you.

1257
00:54:43,280 --> 00:54:45,440
Speaker 1: I'm going with Cologne plus two twenty five on the

1258
00:54:45,520 --> 00:54:47,880
Speaker 1: road at Frankfurt. This line doesn't make a whole lot

1259
00:54:47,920 --> 00:54:51,280
Speaker 1: of sense to me. I mean, Frankfurt last season the Bundesliga. Yes,

1260
00:54:51,440 --> 00:54:54,640
Speaker 1: they won Europa League and that's cool, but they were

1261
00:54:54,760 --> 00:54:58,359
Speaker 1: minus seven point four expected gold the Frentshill. In the Bundesliga,

1262
00:54:58,400 --> 00:55:01,840
Speaker 1: they were twelve in to goals four, they were thirteenth

1263
00:55:01,880 --> 00:55:06,399
Speaker 1: and big scoring chances, they were ninth defensively and expectacles lowed.

1264
00:55:06,400 --> 00:55:09,399
Speaker 1: This was not a good team. And I understand that.

1265
00:55:09,640 --> 00:55:12,000
Speaker 1: You know, Anthony Odesta has moved on to Dortmound. He

1266
00:55:12,120 --> 00:55:15,840
Speaker 1: was a massive, massive part of Cologne's offense. But I

1267
00:55:15,880 --> 00:55:17,640
Speaker 1: mean Colone last season. I mean they were the number

1268
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:20,279
Speaker 1: one pressing team in the Bundesliga nuber one and by

1269
00:55:20,280 --> 00:55:23,560
Speaker 1: passes per defensive action Frankfurt sixteenth and precious success rate

1270
00:55:23,600 --> 00:55:27,279
Speaker 1: allowed eighteenth and ball recoveries allowed. Colone offensively also was

1271
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:29,279
Speaker 1: third and shots for ninety's. Now does that go down

1272
00:55:29,320 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 1: a little bit because Modesta's gone, Yeah, sure, But I

1273
00:55:32,160 --> 00:55:34,480
Speaker 1: mean I have Colone projected as a slight favorite on

1274
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:36,960
Speaker 1: the road here and Frankfurt just sold one of their

1275
00:55:36,960 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 1: best attackers, Fleet Kostitch to Juventus. So where's the offense

1276
00:55:42,000 --> 00:55:45,120
Speaker 1: in the creative midfielder that's going to create some stuff

1277
00:55:45,120 --> 00:55:48,040
Speaker 1: for their front man gonna come from? I don't know,

1278
00:55:48,080 --> 00:55:50,719
Speaker 1: because he had nine assists last season, so it just

1279
00:55:50,760 --> 00:55:52,400
Speaker 1: doesn't really make much sense to me that frankfort is

1280
00:55:52,400 --> 00:55:54,080
Speaker 1: an even money favorite at home. So I'll take Colone

1281
00:55:54,080 --> 00:55:55,080
Speaker 1: plus two twenty five.

1282
00:55:55,360 --> 00:55:56,600
Speaker 2: Ghost of Mario Gotza.

1283
00:55:58,080 --> 00:56:00,480
Speaker 4: Anthony, what do you have for us to wrap up

1284
00:56:00,480 --> 00:56:03,080
Speaker 4: this three leg parlay that you'll eventually mush.

1285
00:56:03,160 --> 00:56:05,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, we're going to the island, Myorca at home against

1286
00:56:05,760 --> 00:56:08,359
Speaker 3: Reale Bettists. Batis had a very impressive three to zero win,

1287
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:10,279
Speaker 3: but it was aided by a red card against the

1288
00:56:10,320 --> 00:56:13,720
Speaker 3: team that we all believe is pretty terrible in LJA.

1289
00:56:13,800 --> 00:56:17,880
Speaker 3: And so you know, now we get to sell Betist

1290
00:56:17,960 --> 00:56:20,920
Speaker 3: after that big win and we get to buy Majorca

1291
00:56:20,960 --> 00:56:22,799
Speaker 3: on the island where they had a plus point two

1292
00:56:22,800 --> 00:56:25,120
Speaker 3: actually difference per ninety last year. They were a top

1293
00:56:25,120 --> 00:56:27,560
Speaker 3: half team at home. It's a tough place to play,

1294
00:56:27,800 --> 00:56:29,439
Speaker 3: so plus two hundred, I'm willing to take a shot

1295
00:56:29,480 --> 00:56:31,240
Speaker 3: on the boys on the island.

1296
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:34,040
Speaker 4: And now we'll move on to our final segment of

1297
00:56:34,520 --> 00:56:37,080
Speaker 4: our podcast, Our favorite bets in the Premier League for

1298
00:56:37,280 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 4: match week three, Anthony, let's go right back to you.

1299
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:42,399
Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm gonna take Brighton plus a quarter of goal

1300
00:56:42,480 --> 00:56:45,160
Speaker 3: minus one ten. I talked about this earlier when I

1301
00:56:45,160 --> 00:56:49,200
Speaker 3: bet the match. Brighton last season dominated west Ham in

1302
00:56:49,239 --> 00:56:50,960
Speaker 3: the second match of the season, which was actually the

1303
00:56:51,000 --> 00:56:53,560
Speaker 3: final match of the year, in a three to one victory.

1304
00:56:53,840 --> 00:56:56,319
Speaker 3: They also played even with the Hammers, and I think

1305
00:56:56,320 --> 00:56:58,399
Speaker 3: the biggest improvement we've seen from Brighton in the last

1306
00:56:58,480 --> 00:57:01,120
Speaker 3: year has been in defensive transition, and those are areas

1307
00:57:01,160 --> 00:57:04,640
Speaker 3: where west Ham needs to thrive to get big scoring chances.

1308
00:57:04,680 --> 00:57:07,480
Speaker 3: We have not seen much from Skamaka thus far. Antonio

1309
00:57:07,520 --> 00:57:10,080
Speaker 3: does not look like himself either, and this attack has

1310
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:13,239
Speaker 3: really struggled to create clear scoring chances. I know they

1311
00:57:13,239 --> 00:57:15,480
Speaker 3: did well against for Us and didn't quite come off

1312
00:57:15,520 --> 00:57:19,000
Speaker 3: in terms of goals, but this market suggests that they

1313
00:57:19,040 --> 00:57:21,000
Speaker 3: are even or better than Brighton and I do not

1314
00:57:21,120 --> 00:57:24,240
Speaker 3: believe that. So I'm given I have this line as

1315
00:57:24,280 --> 00:57:26,520
Speaker 3: about to pick them. I will take the plus quarter

1316
00:57:26,560 --> 00:57:27,920
Speaker 3: goal in this matchup.

1317
00:57:28,120 --> 00:57:30,480
Speaker 4: I'm going to go with Crystal Palace, the team of

1318
00:57:30,480 --> 00:57:33,520
Speaker 4: the podcast right now, plus one fifty five against aston

1319
00:57:33,600 --> 00:57:36,920
Speaker 4: Villa at Selhurst Park, where they were really, really good

1320
00:57:37,000 --> 00:57:39,720
Speaker 4: last year. Palace was the top six defensive team and

1321
00:57:39,800 --> 00:57:42,920
Speaker 4: basically every predictive metric last year they finished with a

1322
00:57:42,960 --> 00:57:46,200
Speaker 4: better expected goal differential compared to Aston Villa, and yet

1323
00:57:46,240 --> 00:57:48,160
Speaker 4: the market is telling us that Phila might be the

1324
00:57:48,160 --> 00:57:50,680
Speaker 4: better team. Maybe on paper the talent's there, but right

1325
00:57:50,680 --> 00:57:53,280
Speaker 4: now Crystal Palace is a better team than Ascevilla, who

1326
00:57:53,280 --> 00:57:57,680
Speaker 4: should and have struggled to create offense against good defensive sides.

1327
00:57:57,720 --> 00:57:59,520
Speaker 4: So I'm going to back the Palace defense at home

1328
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:02,560
Speaker 4: plus one five fifty five continue to buy the Eagles.

1329
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:04,960
Speaker 4: The market hasn't caught up yet, BJ. What about you?

1330
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:07,960
Speaker 1: I'm going Newcastle Manchester City both teams to score no

1331
00:58:08,640 --> 00:58:11,920
Speaker 1: at even money. Manchester City over the last two seasons

1332
00:58:11,960 --> 00:58:14,680
Speaker 1: of shown notes that they are just a very possession dominant,

1333
00:58:15,000 --> 00:58:17,240
Speaker 1: slow build up type of team, and I expect them

1334
00:58:17,240 --> 00:58:20,400
Speaker 1: to hold between sixty five and seventy five percent possession

1335
00:58:20,440 --> 00:58:23,520
Speaker 1: here against Newcastle who Yes, they looked great against Nottingham

1336
00:58:23,520 --> 00:58:25,920
Speaker 1: Forrest in Week one, but then when they played a

1337
00:58:25,920 --> 00:58:29,120
Speaker 1: team like Brighton, who is able to control possession, who's

1338
00:58:29,120 --> 00:58:33,200
Speaker 1: good defensively, they really struggled. Only point two expected goals,

1339
00:58:33,240 --> 00:58:36,720
Speaker 1: only four shots and only seventeen touches in the penalty area.

1340
00:58:36,800 --> 00:58:38,520
Speaker 1: So what do you think they're going to do against

1341
00:58:38,560 --> 00:58:42,440
Speaker 1: the best defensive side in England? In Manchester City. I mean,

1342
00:58:42,640 --> 00:58:45,720
Speaker 1: you know Newcastle they faced after the January transfer window,

1343
00:58:45,760 --> 00:58:48,880
Speaker 1: the five Big six sides and they only create over

1344
00:58:48,920 --> 00:58:51,160
Speaker 1: one expected goal one time and it was against Arsenal

1345
00:58:51,160 --> 00:58:53,120
Speaker 1: in the second to last game of the season. City

1346
00:58:53,160 --> 00:58:55,640
Speaker 1: paced them towards the end of last season. Five nothing.

1347
00:58:55,960 --> 00:58:59,360
Speaker 1: I don't see Newcastle scoring or creating anything of value

1348
00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:01,440
Speaker 1: in this match, like both teams to score now at

1349
00:59:01,520 --> 00:59:02,320
Speaker 1: even money.

1350
00:59:02,240 --> 00:59:04,240
Speaker 4: And there you have it. Another episode of Wonder Goal

1351
00:59:04,320 --> 00:59:07,400
Speaker 4: is in the books. For Anthony Debundo for bj Coneham.

1352
00:59:07,600 --> 00:59:10,280
Speaker 4: Wish you the best of luck all your bets in

1353
00:59:10,360 --> 00:59:12,560
Speaker 4: match week three of the Premier League and we will

1354
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:17,680
Speaker 4: see you on the other side of the weekend.