1 00:00:00,440 --> 00:00:04,080 Speaker 1: Welcome to zero. I am Akshatrati this week one Big 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:19,280 Speaker 1: Beautiful Climate mess. On July third, the US Congress passed 3 00:00:19,280 --> 00:00:23,040 Speaker 1: President Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill, a huge package of 4 00:00:23,120 --> 00:00:28,200 Speaker 1: economic and tax legislation that's meant to reorganize American society. 5 00:00:28,400 --> 00:00:29,080 Speaker 2: The bill gave. 6 00:00:29,000 --> 00:00:32,720 Speaker 1: Tax breaks to corporations and to the richest Americans while 7 00:00:32,760 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 1: cutting into budgets for medical programs, food aid, and, most 8 00:00:35,920 --> 00:00:41,240 Speaker 1: importantly for this show, clean energy spending. The US Office 9 00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:45,040 Speaker 1: of Budget Responsibility estimates that the bill, which we'll call 10 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 1: O Triple B, will cut four hundred and eighty eight 11 00:00:48,360 --> 00:00:51,680 Speaker 1: billion dollars in clean energy spending over the next ten years. 12 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:55,600 Speaker 1: And that's only the government spending part. The four hundred 13 00:00:55,600 --> 00:00:57,800 Speaker 1: and eighty eight billion dollars were supposed to be matched 14 00:00:57,800 --> 00:01:01,560 Speaker 1: many times over by private and investment, which may not 15 00:01:01,640 --> 00:01:05,200 Speaker 1: happen now. As a result, it is a dire prognosis 16 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:07,800 Speaker 1: for the US, which only just started to take its 17 00:01:07,800 --> 00:01:12,039 Speaker 1: climate goals seriously. So has the US given up on 18 00:01:12,200 --> 00:01:14,720 Speaker 1: green tech? Jiggershaw doesn't think so. 19 00:01:15,120 --> 00:01:17,400 Speaker 3: The moment that we're in is the exact same moment 20 00:01:17,440 --> 00:01:19,880 Speaker 3: that the fracking industry was in in twenty fourteen. When 21 00:01:19,880 --> 00:01:23,760 Speaker 3: the Saudi Arabians decided to declare war against the fracking 22 00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:27,679 Speaker 3: industry in the United States, and the fracking industry didn't 23 00:01:27,680 --> 00:01:30,800 Speaker 3: cry in their beer. They came out of that stronger 24 00:01:30,840 --> 00:01:33,240 Speaker 3: than they went into that battle. But I think at 25 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:35,880 Speaker 3: the time all of the stock analysts and all of 26 00:01:35,920 --> 00:01:38,560 Speaker 3: the big newspapers were saying the fracking industry was dead. 27 00:01:39,280 --> 00:01:41,800 Speaker 1: Jiggershaw spent the last two decades in the clean energy 28 00:01:41,840 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: industry in the US, and most recently he was the 29 00:01:44,600 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 1: head of the Department of Energy's Loan Programs Office. He's 30 00:01:48,120 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: also a previous guest on Zero when he came on 31 00:01:50,560 --> 00:01:53,400 Speaker 1: to announce a nine billion dollar loan to Ford Motors 32 00:01:53,720 --> 00:01:57,200 Speaker 1: to help the company build out its electric vehicle battery manufacturing. 33 00:01:57,840 --> 00:02:00,080 Speaker 1: So I got to ask him, what does the passing 34 00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:03,000 Speaker 1: of the O Triple B mean for the US's climate goals, 35 00:02:03,480 --> 00:02:06,200 Speaker 1: whether US climate innovation is now dead in the water, 36 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:09,760 Speaker 1: and what does the bill's passing mean for US China 37 00:02:09,960 --> 00:02:15,720 Speaker 1: clean tech competition. Welcome back to the show, Jigger. 38 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 3: It's great to be back. It's always interesting times that 39 00:02:19,560 --> 00:02:20,000 Speaker 3: we live in. 40 00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:24,160 Speaker 1: Well, let's start with the headline, because President Trump's one big, 41 00:02:24,200 --> 00:02:27,880 Speaker 1: beautiful bill has now become an act, and according to 42 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:31,639 Speaker 1: the Office of Budget Responsibility, it means four hundred and 43 00:02:31,720 --> 00:02:35,480 Speaker 1: eighty eight billion dollars worth of clean energy spending that's gone. 44 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,600 Speaker 1: Much of it was linked to President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act. 45 00:02:38,760 --> 00:02:43,040 Speaker 1: And of course you served under the Biden administration. So 46 00:02:43,639 --> 00:02:45,359 Speaker 1: let's look at the big picture first and we'll come 47 00:02:45,400 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 1: to the nittigrity later. Biden set out a goal that 48 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,799 Speaker 1: the US will cut its emissions in half by the 49 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:53,760 Speaker 1: end of the decade relative to two thousand and five levels. 50 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:58,280 Speaker 1: Do you think the O Triple B has killed any 51 00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:01,040 Speaker 1: hope that the US will meet those goals. 52 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,960 Speaker 3: I think that the people who voted for the O 53 00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:10,000 Speaker 3: Triple B believe that they intended to kill those goals. 54 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:13,560 Speaker 3: I think that that we've seen this before, right, So 55 00:03:13,720 --> 00:03:15,440 Speaker 3: I'm not going to sugarcoat it. I mean, this is 56 00:03:15,480 --> 00:03:20,000 Speaker 3: obviously a huge setback for our industry, right, And you 57 00:03:20,040 --> 00:03:22,320 Speaker 3: would say that this is the first time that a 58 00:03:22,360 --> 00:03:26,000 Speaker 3: sitting president has gone to war with clean energy. But 59 00:03:26,120 --> 00:03:28,240 Speaker 3: I think at the same time, when you think about 60 00:03:28,240 --> 00:03:31,480 Speaker 3: where our industry was in twenty seventeen when Trump first 61 00:03:31,480 --> 00:03:34,160 Speaker 3: came into office, it was quite nascent, right. I mean 62 00:03:34,160 --> 00:03:38,560 Speaker 3: solar panels were not necessarily fully bankable, like battery storage 63 00:03:38,600 --> 00:03:41,920 Speaker 3: was a gleam in people's eye. Today, I would suggest 64 00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 3: that you know, we are now in a place where 65 00:03:44,480 --> 00:03:48,000 Speaker 3: Pakistan is deploying you know, twelve gigawatts of solar a year, right, 66 00:03:48,120 --> 00:03:50,120 Speaker 3: and you see many other countries doing the same thing 67 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:52,440 Speaker 3: around the world. I think you've got you know, folks 68 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:55,640 Speaker 3: who are installing balcony solar at record levels in Germany. 69 00:03:55,720 --> 00:03:55,880 Speaker 1: Right. 70 00:03:56,000 --> 00:03:59,840 Speaker 3: Battery storage has clearly saved the Texas grid every single day, 71 00:04:00,040 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 3: and as a result, like the O trouble, b has not. 72 00:04:03,320 --> 00:04:04,240 Speaker 2: Touched battery storage. 73 00:04:04,760 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 3: And so I would suggest to you that one the 74 00:04:08,680 --> 00:04:11,680 Speaker 3: industry has to recognize that it has now gotten targeted, 75 00:04:12,160 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 3: and so it needs to invest the money required to 76 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:19,880 Speaker 3: actually defend itself. Right. So, today the clean energy industry 77 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:23,359 Speaker 3: the United States invests double the amount of CAPEX that 78 00:04:23,400 --> 00:04:25,440 Speaker 3: the oil and gas industry does each year. And that's 79 00:04:25,720 --> 00:04:28,239 Speaker 3: a big number because remember the US is the largest 80 00:04:28,279 --> 00:04:30,920 Speaker 3: producer of oil and gas in the world. So I'm 81 00:04:30,960 --> 00:04:34,880 Speaker 3: not referring to a small industry, but we're double the 82 00:04:34,880 --> 00:04:37,560 Speaker 3: amount of capax every year that the oil and gas 83 00:04:37,600 --> 00:04:40,800 Speaker 3: industry do, and we spend one twentieth of the amount 84 00:04:40,800 --> 00:04:43,840 Speaker 3: of money on influence and political power, and so as 85 00:04:43,839 --> 00:04:46,560 Speaker 3: a result, we have very little of it. And so 86 00:04:46,680 --> 00:04:48,760 Speaker 3: I think for a long time people thought, but we're 87 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:51,880 Speaker 3: cute and furry and beautiful to hold like no one 88 00:04:51,960 --> 00:04:55,880 Speaker 3: hates clean energy. Well, there are people who actually hate 89 00:04:55,920 --> 00:04:58,320 Speaker 3: clean energy, right, And so I think we all need 90 00:04:58,360 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 3: to acknowledge the humble nature of what's happened here and 91 00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:08,000 Speaker 3: recognize that this is all solvable. Right, that we can 92 00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:12,400 Speaker 3: build political power, we provide a huge amount of local benefits. 93 00:05:12,720 --> 00:05:14,320 Speaker 3: And you know, I would say, this is the first 94 00:05:14,320 --> 00:05:20,160 Speaker 3: time in my lifetime that so many elected officials deliberately 95 00:05:20,240 --> 00:05:23,680 Speaker 3: tried to sabotage their own constituents in service to a 96 00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:28,000 Speaker 3: party leader. So we'll see how durable this war against 97 00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:29,000 Speaker 3: clean energy really is. 98 00:05:29,400 --> 00:05:31,480 Speaker 1: So I spoke to one analyst and he basically put 99 00:05:31,520 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 1: it in the simplest way. He said, the clean energy 100 00:05:34,400 --> 00:05:38,000 Speaker 1: part of this bill is more about cultural issues than 101 00:05:38,200 --> 00:05:41,280 Speaker 1: economic ones. At a time, as you noted, rest of 102 00:05:41,320 --> 00:05:44,559 Speaker 1: the world is doubling down on clean energy, this bill 103 00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: will pull the US back from investing in it. His 104 00:05:48,000 --> 00:05:50,719 Speaker 1: read was that the US is actually acting like a 105 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:54,760 Speaker 1: petro state, not a country that wants to dominate on energy? 106 00:05:54,920 --> 00:05:55,719 Speaker 1: Is that a fair read? 107 00:05:56,279 --> 00:05:58,039 Speaker 3: You know, I find that people have a lot of 108 00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,080 Speaker 3: these hot takes, and I think it's important to start 109 00:06:01,080 --> 00:06:03,080 Speaker 3: with just saying what I did before, which is that 110 00:06:03,760 --> 00:06:06,120 Speaker 3: we were targeted as an industry and as a result, 111 00:06:06,120 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 3: and we were unprepared for that targeting and so we 112 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:13,000 Speaker 3: lost that. Being said, right, we have an affordability crisis 113 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:15,080 Speaker 3: in the United States. Right, what this bill has done 114 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:18,600 Speaker 3: is stripped seventeen million people have medicaid. If you look 115 00:06:18,600 --> 00:06:22,120 Speaker 3: at the way the president has operated our economy, we 116 00:06:22,240 --> 00:06:26,200 Speaker 3: started his administration with a two percent average tariff on 117 00:06:26,320 --> 00:06:29,400 Speaker 3: all incoming goods the United States. Today, our average triff 118 00:06:29,440 --> 00:06:32,960 Speaker 3: is fifteen percent, and with all the announcements happening as 119 00:06:33,000 --> 00:06:35,880 Speaker 3: we speak, that number might be twenty five percent. That 120 00:06:36,000 --> 00:06:38,680 Speaker 3: is generally on the back of poor people, right, And 121 00:06:38,720 --> 00:06:40,560 Speaker 3: so that means a bunch of people are going to 122 00:06:40,560 --> 00:06:44,240 Speaker 3: spend an extra eighteen hundred dollars five thousand dollars per 123 00:06:44,320 --> 00:06:47,520 Speaker 3: year on stuff, depending on what they're buying. And so 124 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 3: you could imagine how quickly this will change within a year. 125 00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:55,320 Speaker 3: That if a year from now, people's electricity bills are 126 00:06:55,400 --> 00:06:58,359 Speaker 3: up nine percent, because of all these bad decisions, you 127 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 3: could imagine them reversing them very quickly after the midterm elections, right, 128 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 3: And so I want to make sure that people recognize 129 00:07:06,080 --> 00:07:09,320 Speaker 3: this for what it is, which is a stunning defeat 130 00:07:09,520 --> 00:07:13,119 Speaker 3: of the clean energy industry and a wake up call 131 00:07:13,720 --> 00:07:17,360 Speaker 3: to the fact that yes, we have extraordinary solutions and 132 00:07:17,400 --> 00:07:20,360 Speaker 3: they are by far the easiest way to reach energy 133 00:07:20,400 --> 00:07:24,560 Speaker 3: dominance and to reach affordability for consumers. But we did 134 00:07:24,560 --> 00:07:28,200 Speaker 3: not do the work to make sure that everyone understood that. 135 00:07:28,600 --> 00:07:31,000 Speaker 1: So let's get into the details, and I'll just list 136 00:07:31,040 --> 00:07:33,800 Speaker 1: a few things because they're worthy of noting. We know 137 00:07:34,280 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: that ev tax credits that were taken off seven five 138 00:07:37,560 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: hundred dollars off the sticker price of a car, those 139 00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:43,480 Speaker 1: are going away later this year, a whole bunch of 140 00:07:43,600 --> 00:07:46,680 Speaker 1: incentives that would have made it cheaper for people to 141 00:07:46,720 --> 00:07:50,360 Speaker 1: electrify their home. But rooftop solar those are going away. 142 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:54,160 Speaker 1: But there are some tax credits for clean energy that 143 00:07:54,240 --> 00:07:57,120 Speaker 1: have been protected. So when you look at the bill, 144 00:07:57,240 --> 00:07:59,840 Speaker 1: is there any good news for climate tech in there? 145 00:08:00,240 --> 00:08:02,840 Speaker 3: Yeah, So let's be very specific about what's in the bill, 146 00:08:02,920 --> 00:08:05,960 Speaker 3: because I think that people get very confused. We are 147 00:08:06,000 --> 00:08:08,920 Speaker 3: going to have a boom in residential solar this year 148 00:08:09,280 --> 00:08:12,640 Speaker 3: as people try to install solar before the twenty five 149 00:08:12,720 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 3: D tax credit expires at the end of the year. Right, So, 150 00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:17,840 Speaker 3: everybody I know of that I've talked to is fully 151 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:19,640 Speaker 3: sold out through the end of the year. Right there, 152 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:22,200 Speaker 3: they're working as hard as they can. For the large 153 00:08:22,200 --> 00:08:26,560 Speaker 3: scale projects or this is commercial and utility scale projects, 154 00:08:26,880 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 3: all of the companies who've already started construction of projects 155 00:08:30,400 --> 00:08:32,880 Speaker 3: will be given the ability to finish them, you know, 156 00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:37,160 Speaker 3: within twenty twenty seven without any additional foreign entities of 157 00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:40,680 Speaker 3: concern language, any of the other poison pills don't apply 158 00:08:40,800 --> 00:08:43,880 Speaker 3: if the project's already under construction, And so that takes 159 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 3: us all the way through twenty twenty seven, right So 160 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,400 Speaker 3: I just want to make sure that we're crystal clear 161 00:08:48,440 --> 00:08:51,079 Speaker 3: that like solar and wind are going to have bumper 162 00:08:51,200 --> 00:08:55,120 Speaker 3: years this year, next year, probably in twenty twenty seven 163 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:57,480 Speaker 3: as well. Then there's a drop off. And so this 164 00:08:57,559 --> 00:09:00,760 Speaker 3: is you know, what you call a cold water approach 165 00:09:00,880 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 3: to phasing out subsidies. Right now, you've got a lot 166 00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 3: of less mature sectors that have been given much more runway, 167 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:11,160 Speaker 3: and batteries are included in that so I think that's 168 00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:13,600 Speaker 3: a good new story. And the vast majority of the 169 00:09:13,679 --> 00:09:17,559 Speaker 3: battery developers are all solar and wind developers, those divisions 170 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 3: of their companies will grow while the other divisions of 171 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:22,760 Speaker 3: their companies might go slightly flat. Then you've got a 172 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:25,839 Speaker 3: huge pusher on nuclear, which I think has largely been 173 00:09:25,920 --> 00:09:29,120 Speaker 3: started by the Biden administration, and I think that currently 174 00:09:29,160 --> 00:09:31,960 Speaker 3: the Trump administration is sort of just using the work 175 00:09:31,960 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 3: that we did. I don't think they've actually done their 176 00:09:33,679 --> 00:09:36,439 Speaker 3: own work yet, but I'm hopeful that they will. Right 177 00:09:36,480 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 3: they have promised to streamline regulations and make it easier 178 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:42,560 Speaker 3: to do stuff, But when I talk to investors, their 179 00:09:42,559 --> 00:09:47,280 Speaker 3: spreadsheetsn't haven't resulted in any reductions and costs in the spreadsheets, 180 00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:49,800 Speaker 3: So we'll see whether that comes through. I think enhanced 181 00:09:49,760 --> 00:09:51,440 Speaker 3: gild thermal is on its way. I think that was 182 00:09:51,480 --> 00:09:54,480 Speaker 3: already on its way with the Geothermal Liftoff report that 183 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,360 Speaker 3: we wrote and all the other things that we've done. 184 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:58,480 Speaker 3: I think the oil and gas industry are very interested 185 00:09:58,480 --> 00:10:01,120 Speaker 3: in investing in that space. I would suggest that they're 186 00:10:01,120 --> 00:10:04,200 Speaker 3: actually not being ambitious enough in the enhance shield thermal 187 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:06,200 Speaker 3: based on the private sector side, I think that this 188 00:10:06,320 --> 00:10:09,600 Speaker 3: administration desperately wants to help them more, and they're not 189 00:10:09,920 --> 00:10:14,000 Speaker 3: being more vocal about how they might be able to 190 00:10:14,080 --> 00:10:17,000 Speaker 3: receive or utilize that help, right, So I think there's 191 00:10:17,280 --> 00:10:21,360 Speaker 3: some communication challenges there. There was a huge amount of 192 00:10:21,520 --> 00:10:24,560 Speaker 3: additional resources provide to hydro power, and we have thirty 193 00:10:24,559 --> 00:10:27,680 Speaker 3: seven thousand megawatts of old hydro that is going to 194 00:10:27,679 --> 00:10:30,440 Speaker 3: be retired over the next five to eight years, right, 195 00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:34,240 Speaker 3: So relicensing all that hydro, putting in next generation technology 196 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:37,079 Speaker 3: could get fifty percent more power output out of all 197 00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,680 Speaker 3: of those existing sites, right, So it's a huge source 198 00:10:39,720 --> 00:10:42,599 Speaker 3: of clean, firm power that could come forward. There was 199 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:44,959 Speaker 3: an extension of the fuel cell tax crits, which I'm 200 00:10:45,000 --> 00:10:48,040 Speaker 3: not quite sure is amazing, but it's great. There's some 201 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,240 Speaker 3: good stuff in there, right, and around the commercialization of technology. 202 00:10:51,600 --> 00:10:54,240 Speaker 3: But I do think that the intention of this, which 203 00:10:54,240 --> 00:10:57,520 Speaker 3: I think will remain to be clear, is a phase 204 00:10:57,559 --> 00:11:01,200 Speaker 3: out of tax credits for mature technologies and more of 205 00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 3: a focus on immature and commercializing technologies. 206 00:11:04,800 --> 00:11:08,280 Speaker 1: There's also some tax cards being given to bring in 207 00:11:08,559 --> 00:11:12,880 Speaker 1: biofuels into sustainable aviation fuels. Yeah, what do you make 208 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:13,240 Speaker 1: of those? 209 00:11:13,559 --> 00:11:15,120 Speaker 3: You know, we wrote a lift off report at my 210 00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 3: insistence that we published right before we left office, and 211 00:11:18,320 --> 00:11:21,800 Speaker 3: so to summarize it, basically says the EU refuses to 212 00:11:21,840 --> 00:11:25,640 Speaker 3: allow any crops to be used in their SAF production. Right, 213 00:11:25,679 --> 00:11:28,160 Speaker 3: so to the extent that you're making SAFF, you're making 214 00:11:28,200 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 3: it for the EU. They will not allow coren ethanol 215 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,599 Speaker 3: to be used in any of that SAFF. So I 216 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:35,560 Speaker 3: don't really understand why you would do it. I think 217 00:11:35,600 --> 00:11:38,880 Speaker 3: the Japanese program does allow for these sort of feedstocks 218 00:11:38,880 --> 00:11:41,000 Speaker 3: and so, but I think you could dwarf the Japanese 219 00:11:41,040 --> 00:11:44,160 Speaker 3: market pretty quickly by the existing plants that we've already 220 00:11:44,160 --> 00:11:46,880 Speaker 3: funded right out of the Loan Program's office. And so 221 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:51,839 Speaker 3: I'm a big fan of biomethanol for shipping. I do 222 00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:54,840 Speaker 3: think that clean hydrogen is largely going to go into ammonia, 223 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:57,559 Speaker 3: which is what we always predicted at the Loan Program's office. 224 00:11:57,760 --> 00:12:00,440 Speaker 3: So I think a lot of these clean fuels what 225 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:03,480 Speaker 3: do you call it fights that people were having the 226 00:12:03,520 --> 00:12:06,320 Speaker 3: last four years, are trying to resolve themselves as to 227 00:12:06,920 --> 00:12:10,640 Speaker 3: you know, like which feedstocks go into saff, which feedstocks 228 00:12:10,679 --> 00:12:13,560 Speaker 3: go into shipping? You know, which feedstocks go are the places? 229 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:15,160 Speaker 3: And so we're trying to figure all that stuff out. 230 00:12:15,160 --> 00:12:19,559 Speaker 3: In the US is clearly blessed with an extraordinary agriculture industry, 231 00:12:19,600 --> 00:12:22,400 Speaker 3: but I think, as you also know, agriculture is not 232 00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:27,160 Speaker 3: devoid of climate impacts. And so I do think that 233 00:12:27,280 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 3: from a climate perspective, we're going to all have to 234 00:12:29,520 --> 00:12:32,559 Speaker 3: be a lot more thoughtful about whether this is really 235 00:12:33,160 --> 00:12:35,240 Speaker 3: serving us well on the climate side, or whether this 236 00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:36,560 Speaker 3: is really just a push. 237 00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:39,040 Speaker 1: And speaking of the Loan Program's Office, last time you 238 00:12:39,080 --> 00:12:42,600 Speaker 1: were here on zero almost exactly two years ago, you 239 00:12:42,640 --> 00:12:45,080 Speaker 1: were talking about the nine point two billion dollar loan 240 00:12:45,160 --> 00:12:49,000 Speaker 1: to Ford to build batteries for electric cars. How much 241 00:12:49,040 --> 00:12:52,200 Speaker 1: of the progress you made at the LPO will be 242 00:12:52,320 --> 00:12:55,200 Speaker 1: undone by this bill or what has been done by 243 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:56,840 Speaker 1: the Trump administration so far. 244 00:12:57,400 --> 00:13:00,000 Speaker 3: I think it depends on what you mean by under 245 00:13:00,360 --> 00:13:03,440 Speaker 3: I would say that to date they have not undone anything. Right, 246 00:13:03,480 --> 00:13:05,640 Speaker 3: so all of the loans that we issued have been 247 00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:09,560 Speaker 3: honored to date, none of them have been unfairly rescinded 248 00:13:10,240 --> 00:13:12,679 Speaker 3: or whatever you would suggest. I do think they've been 249 00:13:12,679 --> 00:13:15,400 Speaker 3: slow to close the loans that I had laid for 250 00:13:15,520 --> 00:13:19,840 Speaker 3: them to close, and so I'm shocked at how long 251 00:13:19,920 --> 00:13:22,320 Speaker 3: it's taken for them to take the wins that we 252 00:13:22,920 --> 00:13:25,480 Speaker 3: gave them. If you look at the O Triple B, 253 00:13:26,240 --> 00:13:30,400 Speaker 3: it has more resources for loan Program's office. That's very specific, 254 00:13:30,559 --> 00:13:34,199 Speaker 3: right to relabeling the seventeen oh six program, which was 255 00:13:34,320 --> 00:13:38,000 Speaker 3: Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment Program into like the Energy Dominance Financing 256 00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:42,439 Speaker 3: or they've relabeled some other stuff. So so they have 257 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 3: a lot of resources, and so the resources that they 258 00:13:45,520 --> 00:13:49,320 Speaker 3: have remaining could match our production. So they could do 259 00:13:49,559 --> 00:13:53,320 Speaker 3: another one hundred and eight billion dollars worth of loans 260 00:13:53,360 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 3: over this next four years, presumably in their preferred sectors 261 00:13:57,200 --> 00:14:00,840 Speaker 3: like you know, nuclear or geothermol or or these other areas. 262 00:14:00,920 --> 00:14:03,880 Speaker 3: But you know, to date they have not shown that 263 00:14:03,960 --> 00:14:06,720 Speaker 3: they have a clear mandate around where to put that money. 264 00:14:07,120 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 1: You had about four hundred billion dollars count here and 265 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:12,760 Speaker 1: there when initially we talked about it. There has been 266 00:14:12,880 --> 00:14:15,439 Speaker 1: certain amount of rescinding happening, right, three point six billion 267 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:19,400 Speaker 1: dollars for the Title seventeen Loan Guarantee Program, three billion 268 00:14:19,440 --> 00:14:24,320 Speaker 1: dollars for the Advanced Technology Vehicles Manufacturing, five billion dollars 269 00:14:24,320 --> 00:14:28,280 Speaker 1: for the Energy Infrastructure Reinvestment Program. So current loans that 270 00:14:28,320 --> 00:14:30,320 Speaker 1: you have given out, those haven't been rescinded, But there 271 00:14:30,360 --> 00:14:32,240 Speaker 1: are future loans that could have been given out under 272 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:33,640 Speaker 1: those programs that are gone now. 273 00:14:33,960 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 3: Yeah, but I don't think it really matters all that much. 274 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:39,680 Speaker 3: I mean, this is all money that was set aside 275 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:41,720 Speaker 3: to do certain things. Right, it was very clear that 276 00:14:41,760 --> 00:14:43,960 Speaker 3: elections have consequences and they were not going to do 277 00:14:43,960 --> 00:14:46,640 Speaker 3: those certain things, and so having the money sit there 278 00:14:46,680 --> 00:14:48,160 Speaker 3: and them not putting it out the door, it doesn't 279 00:14:48,160 --> 00:14:50,800 Speaker 3: make any sense. And so they've rescinded it. Fine, and 280 00:14:50,840 --> 00:14:53,560 Speaker 3: they've provided an additional billion dollars of new money for 281 00:14:53,640 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 3: things that they do want to do. So they took 282 00:14:55,280 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 3: some away, they put some more back in, and they 283 00:14:57,280 --> 00:15:00,280 Speaker 3: can give us the Loan Programs Office more money in 284 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,400 Speaker 3: the funding bills that there will be passing later this year. Right, 285 00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:06,080 Speaker 3: So that part I'm not concerned about. I do think 286 00:15:06,120 --> 00:15:09,560 Speaker 3: that they have the resources to do the same amount 287 00:15:09,640 --> 00:15:12,720 Speaker 3: of loans that we did, but in their preferred sectors. 288 00:15:16,360 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 1: We'll be back with more of my conversation with Jiggashaw 289 00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:22,720 Speaker 1: after this break, and Hey, if you're finding this episode insightful, 290 00:15:23,040 --> 00:15:24,960 Speaker 1: please take a moment to rate and review the show 291 00:15:25,000 --> 00:15:28,560 Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Your feedback really matters and 292 00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:42,080 Speaker 1: helps new listeners discover the show. Thank you. Coming back 293 00:15:42,120 --> 00:15:44,560 Speaker 1: to the politics of it, and I think you put 294 00:15:44,600 --> 00:15:47,720 Speaker 1: it well, which is that, Look, the clean energy industry 295 00:15:47,720 --> 00:15:52,480 Speaker 1: in the US doesn't spend much, very small fraction one 296 00:15:52,560 --> 00:15:56,280 Speaker 1: twentieth of what the oil and gas industry spends on lobbying. 297 00:15:56,800 --> 00:16:00,960 Speaker 1: But in the thinking of the Inflation Act and of 298 00:16:01,000 --> 00:16:05,280 Speaker 1: the Biden administration, there was always this goal that if 299 00:16:05,320 --> 00:16:09,360 Speaker 1: you bring both red states, Republican led states, and Democrat 300 00:16:09,440 --> 00:16:13,000 Speaker 1: led states together and you provide these tax credits going 301 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:15,880 Speaker 1: to all states, and especially in the IRA much of 302 00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: it was going more than the majority was going to 303 00:16:17,960 --> 00:16:22,840 Speaker 1: the Republican side, that that is what will hold these 304 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:26,720 Speaker 1: politicians to account and they won't cause self harm by 305 00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:31,240 Speaker 1: rescinding these things. So where did that fail and what 306 00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:35,080 Speaker 1: lessons do you take from it for the clean energy industry? 307 00:16:35,680 --> 00:16:37,760 Speaker 3: I think there are two different questions, right, So I 308 00:16:37,840 --> 00:16:40,400 Speaker 3: think we need to be very careful about what we're 309 00:16:40,880 --> 00:16:44,120 Speaker 3: concluding in these data points, right. I mean, President Trump 310 00:16:44,160 --> 00:16:46,840 Speaker 3: is a very unique individual. Like when you think about 311 00:16:47,280 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 3: his poll numbers and his actual voting numbers, he really 312 00:16:51,280 --> 00:16:54,000 Speaker 3: won the working class in a very big way. But 313 00:16:54,160 --> 00:16:56,960 Speaker 3: more than that, since twenty seventeen, he has remade the 314 00:16:57,000 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 3: Republican Party so that he is the only dominant force 315 00:17:00,040 --> 00:17:02,480 Speaker 3: that everyone should fear him. When you have that much 316 00:17:02,680 --> 00:17:08,040 Speaker 3: power over individuals, then they do things that are blatantly 317 00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:12,400 Speaker 3: in disregard for their constituents. And so whether it's out 318 00:17:12,400 --> 00:17:15,520 Speaker 3: of fear right, fear for their family, fear for reelection, 319 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:19,720 Speaker 3: fear for whatever it is, that does not invalidate the 320 00:17:19,720 --> 00:17:22,679 Speaker 3: thesis behind the Inflation Reduction Act. When you think about 321 00:17:22,760 --> 00:17:25,040 Speaker 3: twenty plus people on the Republican side in the House 322 00:17:25,040 --> 00:17:27,440 Speaker 3: that signed the letter, plus you had four or five 323 00:17:27,480 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 3: Republican Senators that were genuinely looking to try to save 324 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:34,520 Speaker 3: all the incentives. And so when you think about where 325 00:17:34,560 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 3: this whole thing landed, right, it is terrible for the 326 00:17:39,080 --> 00:17:43,960 Speaker 3: clean energy industry, and it was so much better than 327 00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 3: it could have been, right, And so I don't think 328 00:17:47,240 --> 00:17:49,359 Speaker 3: that we should take from this that this is not 329 00:17:49,400 --> 00:17:50,200 Speaker 3: a durable solution. 330 00:17:50,840 --> 00:17:53,000 Speaker 2: In a million years, no one would. 331 00:17:52,880 --> 00:18:01,080 Speaker 3: Have suggested that elected officials would actively sabotage facturing facilities 332 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 3: in their community. No one would have guessed that, right, 333 00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:09,320 Speaker 3: this is the single largest assault on working class people 334 00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:13,040 Speaker 3: that we've had in I don't know, like since Ronald 335 00:18:13,119 --> 00:18:15,480 Speaker 3: Reagan was promising to do that in the nineteen eighties. 336 00:18:15,840 --> 00:18:19,320 Speaker 1: We're also in this period where the US and Europe 337 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:23,120 Speaker 1: and the Western world in general is seeing electricity consumption 338 00:18:23,280 --> 00:18:25,639 Speaker 1: rise at a level that it hasn't seen in decades. 339 00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:29,160 Speaker 1: Much of what would have happened under the IRA would 340 00:18:29,160 --> 00:18:32,760 Speaker 1: have enabled the rollout of clean energy, but crucially, it 341 00:18:32,800 --> 00:18:36,920 Speaker 1: would have rolled out cheap electricity to these data centers 342 00:18:36,920 --> 00:18:39,000 Speaker 1: that are consuming huge amounts of it. 343 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:41,160 Speaker 2: How do you. 344 00:18:41,119 --> 00:18:44,880 Speaker 1: Think ut triple B affects the scaling up of data 345 00:18:44,920 --> 00:18:46,520 Speaker 1: centers in the US. 346 00:18:47,000 --> 00:18:51,560 Speaker 3: I think that the economic development story in the United States, 347 00:18:51,960 --> 00:18:54,040 Speaker 3: right is something that's very strong, and it's one that 348 00:18:54,080 --> 00:18:58,240 Speaker 3: the utilities want to support. It's the governors want to 349 00:18:58,280 --> 00:19:02,679 Speaker 3: support their utilities in getting those things done. And you know, 350 00:19:02,920 --> 00:19:04,800 Speaker 3: I mean, at least in rhetoric, the President of the 351 00:19:04,880 --> 00:19:06,760 Speaker 3: United States also wants to make sure we win the 352 00:19:06,760 --> 00:19:08,920 Speaker 3: AI race and all that stuff, right, So I think 353 00:19:08,960 --> 00:19:10,640 Speaker 3: that we're going to win that race. I think what's 354 00:19:10,680 --> 00:19:13,680 Speaker 3: going to likely occur is we're going to move much 355 00:19:13,720 --> 00:19:18,320 Speaker 3: faster than even I imagined into the you know, distributed 356 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:22,199 Speaker 3: capacity procurement. You know that Spark Fund is doing in Minnesota, 357 00:19:22,359 --> 00:19:25,200 Speaker 3: the virtual power plant programs that are being done across 358 00:19:25,240 --> 00:19:27,399 Speaker 3: the country. I think what you will see in this 359 00:19:27,560 --> 00:19:32,439 Speaker 3: moment is an enormous deployment of demand flexibility enabled by 360 00:19:32,920 --> 00:19:38,720 Speaker 3: the batteries that you know got full subsidization within the ultriple. 361 00:19:38,240 --> 00:19:42,520 Speaker 1: B Well, the battery manufacturing supply chain though does not 362 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:44,720 Speaker 1: have the same credits left. 363 00:19:44,920 --> 00:19:45,520 Speaker 2: No they do. 364 00:19:45,600 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 3: They still get the. 365 00:19:46,280 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: Forty five x credit local content. 366 00:19:48,760 --> 00:19:50,879 Speaker 3: No local content, they don't, so they no longer have 367 00:19:50,920 --> 00:19:54,920 Speaker 3: to buy lithium or graph height or battery separators or 368 00:19:54,960 --> 00:20:00,399 Speaker 3: whatever from local companies. But there's a production credit. So 369 00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:03,399 Speaker 3: for every megawat hour of batteries that they made, they 370 00:20:03,480 --> 00:20:06,199 Speaker 3: got a payment. They still get those and most of 371 00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:09,520 Speaker 3: the existing battery manufacturing facilities in the US or EV 372 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 3: battery manufacturing facilities, so they will continue to be put 373 00:20:13,280 --> 00:20:16,760 Speaker 3: into evs. And then you know, I think some of 374 00:20:15,880 --> 00:20:19,800 Speaker 3: the battery manufacturing facilities that were built a little more 375 00:20:19,840 --> 00:20:24,760 Speaker 3: slowly are converting themselves into utility scale battery manufacturing facilities, 376 00:20:24,800 --> 00:20:28,880 Speaker 3: so making LFP batteries, making batteries that are for utility 377 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:31,880 Speaker 3: scale applications, and so that conversion is happening now. 378 00:20:32,359 --> 00:20:37,600 Speaker 1: So BLOOMAGAINIFS modeling shows that manufacturing capacity increase in battery 379 00:20:37,640 --> 00:20:40,119 Speaker 1: making in the US is going to be much lower 380 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:43,119 Speaker 1: because a lot of the electric vehicle battery manufacturing is 381 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:47,879 Speaker 1: not coming online. But overall, trying to actually build out 382 00:20:47,880 --> 00:20:51,160 Speaker 1: a supply chain in the US for batteries is going 383 00:20:51,200 --> 00:20:53,440 Speaker 1: to be a harder challenge than it was before the 384 00:20:53,560 --> 00:20:54,960 Speaker 1: U Triple B. Is that not right? 385 00:20:55,200 --> 00:20:58,040 Speaker 3: Yeah, that's right. So battery manufacturing was on track to 386 00:20:58,080 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 3: reaching four hundred gigo wa hours worth production in the US. 387 00:21:01,600 --> 00:21:03,520 Speaker 3: I still think we're going to reach that target, to 388 00:21:03,560 --> 00:21:05,959 Speaker 3: be clear, but I think what's happening is for the 389 00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:10,960 Speaker 3: plants that were were being built more slowly, they have 390 00:21:11,000 --> 00:21:14,400 Speaker 3: an opportunity today to convert them to serve the utility 391 00:21:14,440 --> 00:21:17,640 Speaker 3: scale battery market and not the electric vehicle market, and 392 00:21:17,760 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 3: all of those conversions are being made. So I think 393 00:21:21,160 --> 00:21:23,399 Speaker 3: we'll still get to four hundred gig what hours, but 394 00:21:23,480 --> 00:21:27,480 Speaker 3: it'll be a bigger mix between of utility scale versus 395 00:21:27,720 --> 00:21:30,160 Speaker 3: electric vehicle batteries. But the electric vehicle batteries will still 396 00:21:30,160 --> 00:21:32,520 Speaker 3: be I don't know, two hundred and seventy gig what 397 00:21:32,600 --> 00:21:34,720 Speaker 3: hours or so. So that's why I'm saying like, I 398 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:36,480 Speaker 3: don't think we know how this is going to play out. 399 00:21:36,520 --> 00:21:39,440 Speaker 3: I feel like the O Triple B was so randomly 400 00:21:39,600 --> 00:21:43,800 Speaker 3: constructed that you know that, I think people are still 401 00:21:43,800 --> 00:21:46,480 Speaker 3: trying to figure out exactly how they're going to implement 402 00:21:46,520 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 3: all these provisions. 403 00:21:48,080 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: So on evs. The projections before or Triple B was 404 00:21:53,359 --> 00:21:56,160 Speaker 1: that the US would have reached half of new sales 405 00:21:56,680 --> 00:21:59,800 Speaker 1: being EV's by twenty thirty. That's now dropping, according to 406 00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:04,600 Speaker 1: Borghini f estimates, to thirty seven percent. Fast forward fifteen years. 407 00:22:04,800 --> 00:22:08,280 Speaker 1: Let's not worry about what is going to happen tomorrow. 408 00:22:08,640 --> 00:22:12,239 Speaker 1: But given the rest of the world is speeding up 409 00:22:12,240 --> 00:22:15,840 Speaker 1: on EV transition, It's not just China, it's also India, 410 00:22:15,880 --> 00:22:20,200 Speaker 1: It's also Europe, even Africa. You're seeing two whelar electric 411 00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:23,400 Speaker 1: vehicles take off. Do we end up in this situation 412 00:22:23,440 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 1: where the US still remains the place where the gas 413 00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:29,879 Speaker 1: guzzler is king and everybody else is you know, zipping 414 00:22:29,920 --> 00:22:31,600 Speaker 1: around in EV's breathing clean air. 415 00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 2: We don't, no. 416 00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:35,000 Speaker 3: I mean, this is what I'm saying is that I 417 00:22:35,000 --> 00:22:38,080 Speaker 3: feel like all of these prognostications are done on models 418 00:22:38,080 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 3: that were built by you know, sort of human beings 419 00:22:41,920 --> 00:22:45,280 Speaker 3: who had assumptions. Right, The way that the US market 420 00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:47,760 Speaker 3: has been moving and will move is to plug in 421 00:22:47,800 --> 00:22:51,240 Speaker 3: hybrid vehicles. We were never going to be all electric vehicles. 422 00:22:51,280 --> 00:22:55,119 Speaker 3: Both my in laws and my parents just bought a 423 00:22:55,119 --> 00:22:58,520 Speaker 3: plug in hybrid vehicle. They're both the same exact one actually, 424 00:22:58,560 --> 00:23:01,800 Speaker 3: and it was thirty three like miles or thirty four 425 00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:05,320 Speaker 3: miles electric. Almost all new models are heading towards forty 426 00:23:05,359 --> 00:23:08,520 Speaker 3: forty five miles electric for these plug and hybrid vehicles, 427 00:23:08,560 --> 00:23:11,000 Speaker 3: and I think the vast majority of people, I think 428 00:23:11,000 --> 00:23:13,800 Speaker 3: are going to move to these thirty forty mile plug 429 00:23:13,800 --> 00:23:18,400 Speaker 3: and hybrid vehicle batteries. And my parents, I mean, they 430 00:23:18,440 --> 00:23:22,040 Speaker 3: get that light that shines that says your gas is 431 00:23:22,040 --> 00:23:25,120 Speaker 3: getting stale because you haven't used it in two months, right, 432 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:28,280 Speaker 3: So it meets one hundred percent of their needs. And 433 00:23:28,320 --> 00:23:30,119 Speaker 3: I put in a level too charger for them, but 434 00:23:30,160 --> 00:23:32,159 Speaker 3: they won't use it. So they'll they just plug it 435 00:23:32,160 --> 00:23:35,000 Speaker 3: into the wall using Level one because it's only one 436 00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:36,520 Speaker 3: of a thirty four mile range and they're like it 437 00:23:36,520 --> 00:23:39,160 Speaker 3: works fine, Like we don't need that. So I think 438 00:23:39,160 --> 00:23:43,040 Speaker 3: you will see that America because of the long distances 439 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,359 Speaker 3: that we drive. Like what you will find is the 440 00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,399 Speaker 3: vast majority of people will find comfort with a plug 441 00:23:48,400 --> 00:23:51,679 Speaker 3: in hybrid, and then they will solve their range anxiety 442 00:23:51,840 --> 00:23:54,920 Speaker 3: by just using gasoline when they go beyond that period, 443 00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:58,480 Speaker 3: and that will still result in ninety percent of that 444 00:23:58,960 --> 00:24:02,760 Speaker 3: family is vehicle miles traveled going to zero mission. 445 00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,919 Speaker 1: So if we split the energy transition into these mature 446 00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:10,680 Speaker 1: technologies and these maturing immature technologies, we looked at how 447 00:24:10,800 --> 00:24:12,840 Speaker 1: much of the tax rates for the mature technologies are 448 00:24:12,840 --> 00:24:16,040 Speaker 1: being taken away. On the maturing side, we talked through 449 00:24:16,359 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 1: nuclear geothermal, maybe some bio fuel for saff but those, 450 00:24:20,680 --> 00:24:23,639 Speaker 1: as you said, are not being done thoughtfully. There's no 451 00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:28,359 Speaker 1: real proactive nature to try and build those out. Sitting 452 00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:32,760 Speaker 1: here outside the US, it does feel like the US, 453 00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:36,160 Speaker 1: at least under Trump, will have given up on competing 454 00:24:36,200 --> 00:24:40,040 Speaker 1: with China on the mature technologies. Right, You're going to 455 00:24:40,080 --> 00:24:43,439 Speaker 1: have some solar and some batteries and they'll grow, but 456 00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:47,240 Speaker 1: really that supply chain is not going to get built 457 00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 1: in the US in the next four years. You're going 458 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:54,320 Speaker 1: to have to depend on foreign entities. Maybe you're welcome, Uckshut, 459 00:24:54,359 --> 00:24:55,120 Speaker 1: You're welcome. 460 00:24:55,840 --> 00:24:58,480 Speaker 3: For a long time, everybody was yelling at me for 461 00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 3: the IRA being too low and you're stealing all of 462 00:25:01,480 --> 00:25:04,360 Speaker 3: our companies and all of our opportunity. I have now 463 00:25:04,400 --> 00:25:08,480 Speaker 3: given it back to you. You must now continue the mission. 464 00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,239 Speaker 1: Do you think I mean from the US perspective, do 465 00:25:11,280 --> 00:25:14,400 Speaker 1: you think four years down the line, say another president 466 00:25:14,440 --> 00:25:17,080 Speaker 1: comes in and say it's a climate friendly one, We'll 467 00:25:17,119 --> 00:25:20,400 Speaker 1: look at what happened and say, yes, we can still 468 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:21,240 Speaker 1: compete with China. 469 00:25:21,720 --> 00:25:22,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, of course. 470 00:25:22,480 --> 00:25:25,360 Speaker 3: Look, I think that the thing that people got wrong before, 471 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:29,240 Speaker 3: and I think what they're getting wrong now is that 472 00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:33,800 Speaker 3: while I loved serving the last four years within the 473 00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:38,560 Speaker 3: Biden administration, we were always private sector led, government enabled. 474 00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:41,040 Speaker 3: I think people thought that that was a throwaway line, 475 00:25:41,080 --> 00:25:44,040 Speaker 3: but it really wasn't. Everything in the United States is 476 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:46,760 Speaker 3: driven by the private sector. And if you look at 477 00:25:46,800 --> 00:25:49,840 Speaker 3: this next week, there's a big conference in Detroit of 478 00:25:49,920 --> 00:25:52,640 Speaker 3: all the major venture capital funds and others who voted 479 00:25:52,680 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 3: for Trump, and they are all talking about putting up 480 00:25:57,160 --> 00:26:01,280 Speaker 3: tens of billions of dollars into reindustrialing our country. And 481 00:26:01,359 --> 00:26:03,480 Speaker 3: so they're looking to pick up all these projects and 482 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:06,400 Speaker 3: to continue to build them right. And so we'll see 483 00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,639 Speaker 3: which ones succeed in which ones don't succeed. In what 484 00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:10,320 Speaker 3: they decide to do and what they don't decide to do. 485 00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:13,840 Speaker 3: But that's the private sector leading. Trump is not going 486 00:26:13,880 --> 00:26:16,560 Speaker 3: to stop them from leading, right, Like, if they want 487 00:26:16,600 --> 00:26:18,639 Speaker 3: to build something here in the United States, because we 488 00:26:18,680 --> 00:26:20,720 Speaker 3: did ninety percent of the work under the last administration 489 00:26:20,760 --> 00:26:22,160 Speaker 3: and they want to take it the last ten percent 490 00:26:22,200 --> 00:26:24,879 Speaker 3: of the way, they're going to do that, right, And 491 00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:28,640 Speaker 3: so like, I just think that people thought that there 492 00:26:28,720 --> 00:26:32,360 Speaker 3: was this imperial presidency within the Biden administration and now 493 00:26:32,400 --> 00:26:36,800 Speaker 3: an imperial presidency within the Trump administration, and for these issues, 494 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 3: neither is true. 495 00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:38,680 Speaker 2: Now. 496 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:40,440 Speaker 3: You know, we could talk about immigration, or we could 497 00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:43,160 Speaker 3: talk about other issues, but like, for these issues, neither 498 00:26:43,320 --> 00:26:46,000 Speaker 3: was true. Right, This was always private sector led, and 499 00:26:46,040 --> 00:26:47,359 Speaker 3: those people continue to do it. 500 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:47,600 Speaker 2: Now. 501 00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 3: Have we taken a gut punch, like a you know, 502 00:26:50,400 --> 00:26:53,879 Speaker 3: a huge gut punch. Yes, Right after we thought that 503 00:26:53,960 --> 00:26:57,000 Speaker 3: we had align the interest of everyone in the political 504 00:26:57,000 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 3: spectrum around figuring out how to diversify supply chains from China, right, 505 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,639 Speaker 3: people are saying, well, we're going to say all the 506 00:27:04,680 --> 00:27:06,000 Speaker 3: right things, but we're not going to do all the 507 00:27:06,040 --> 00:27:08,919 Speaker 3: right things, and the ult triple be that sucks, But 508 00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,679 Speaker 3: hopefully it's a wake up call to our industry that look, 509 00:27:12,080 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 3: these technologies continue to be the way of the future. Right, 510 00:27:16,400 --> 00:27:18,040 Speaker 3: If you can't do it in the United States, you 511 00:27:18,080 --> 00:27:20,000 Speaker 3: can go to the UK, you can go to the EU, 512 00:27:20,080 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 3: you can go to Canada, go to Australia. They still 513 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:24,040 Speaker 3: have all their programs in place. They want you to 514 00:27:24,080 --> 00:27:27,360 Speaker 3: go there to do that work. And some folks are 515 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:29,440 Speaker 3: just you know, stubborn, So they're going to keep trying 516 00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:31,280 Speaker 3: to do it here in the United States and I'm 517 00:27:31,359 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 3: here for it. 518 00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,280 Speaker 1: What should the clean energy industry do? You said, increase 519 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:38,840 Speaker 1: political spending for lobbying, which you know, given how much 520 00:27:39,160 --> 00:27:44,400 Speaker 1: spending happens in US politics already, especially during the presidential elections, 521 00:27:44,960 --> 00:27:45,960 Speaker 1: you're calling for more. 522 00:27:46,160 --> 00:27:50,480 Speaker 2: Great, but strategically, although it's not spending that way, right, 523 00:27:50,520 --> 00:27:53,359 Speaker 2: it's more about the fact that we have projects in 524 00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 2: communities around the country and most of those communities don't 525 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:57,520 Speaker 2: even know that we're there. Right. 526 00:27:57,600 --> 00:27:59,520 Speaker 3: We need to fund the t ball team, we need 527 00:27:59,560 --> 00:28:01,560 Speaker 3: to fund the local high school, we need to do 528 00:28:01,640 --> 00:28:03,800 Speaker 3: all of the things that you have to do. But 529 00:28:03,920 --> 00:28:06,760 Speaker 3: remember the moment that we're in is the exact same 530 00:28:06,800 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 3: moment that the fracking industry was in in twenty fourteen 531 00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:13,000 Speaker 3: when the Saudi Arabians decided to declare war against the 532 00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:16,199 Speaker 3: fracking industry in the United States, right, and the fracking 533 00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:19,880 Speaker 3: industry didn't cry in their beer. They woke up and said, 534 00:28:19,880 --> 00:28:21,560 Speaker 3: all right, let's figure out how to right size our 535 00:28:21,600 --> 00:28:23,919 Speaker 3: supply chain. Let's figure out how to get all of 536 00:28:23,920 --> 00:28:26,080 Speaker 3: our suppliers to cut their costs, Let's figure out how 537 00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:28,200 Speaker 3: to do all these things to continue to stay alive. Right, 538 00:28:28,680 --> 00:28:32,000 Speaker 3: And they came out of that stronger than they went 539 00:28:32,040 --> 00:28:34,120 Speaker 3: into that battle. But I think at the time, all 540 00:28:34,160 --> 00:28:37,119 Speaker 3: of the stock analysts and all of the big newspapers 541 00:28:37,119 --> 00:28:41,200 Speaker 3: were saying the fracking industry was dead, right, And so 542 00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:43,560 Speaker 3: I think that when you think about all the times 543 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:45,280 Speaker 3: that I have been left for dead on the side 544 00:28:45,320 --> 00:28:48,040 Speaker 3: of the road, whether it was in two thousand and 545 00:28:48,320 --> 00:28:50,800 Speaker 3: eight after the global financial crisis, whether it was after 546 00:28:50,840 --> 00:28:54,720 Speaker 3: the Spanish program collapsed upon itself in twenty nine and 547 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:56,520 Speaker 3: twenty ten and people said people are never going to 548 00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:00,000 Speaker 3: invest in Spain ever again, right, whether it's in German 549 00:29:00,280 --> 00:29:03,360 Speaker 3: and the manufacturing collapse of the solar panel industry there, like, 550 00:29:03,400 --> 00:29:07,320 Speaker 3: there's lots of times that our industry has been left 551 00:29:07,320 --> 00:29:11,080 Speaker 3: for dead, and we have risen and being stronger for it. 552 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:15,080 Speaker 3: I think it's important to acknowledge, yes, the clean energy 553 00:29:15,080 --> 00:29:20,280 Speaker 3: industry is at war with this administration, and yes, the 554 00:29:20,320 --> 00:29:24,200 Speaker 3: clean energy industry has what it needs to thrive in 555 00:29:24,280 --> 00:29:27,760 Speaker 3: this moment. But you know, along the way, fifty percent 556 00:29:27,800 --> 00:29:30,800 Speaker 3: of our companies may go bankrupt, right the ones that 557 00:29:31,000 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 3: weren't well capitalized, the ones who weren't run well, et cetera, 558 00:29:34,720 --> 00:29:37,280 Speaker 3: may go bankrupt. And then the other fifty percent are 559 00:29:37,320 --> 00:29:39,360 Speaker 3: going to probably thrive out of this and take the 560 00:29:39,400 --> 00:29:41,680 Speaker 3: rest of the market share and continue to succeed. It 561 00:29:41,760 --> 00:29:43,920 Speaker 3: is still the case that our technologies are the best 562 00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:45,760 Speaker 3: in the world, and it is the only way we're 563 00:29:45,760 --> 00:29:47,760 Speaker 3: going to achieve energy dominance. It's the only way we're 564 00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:50,959 Speaker 3: going to unlock all these economic opportunities. But you know, 565 00:29:51,160 --> 00:29:53,400 Speaker 3: I think you can hold both of those ideas in 566 00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 3: your head at the same time. 567 00:29:54,640 --> 00:29:57,920 Speaker 1: Well, I assume the clean energy industry wants to listen 568 00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:01,200 Speaker 1: to this, because right now things do quite dire and 569 00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:05,960 Speaker 1: you are still bullish, bullish within the framework of what 570 00:30:06,280 --> 00:30:09,320 Speaker 1: is going to be a tough challenge. Thank you, Jager, 571 00:30:09,600 --> 00:30:17,600 Speaker 1: of course, thanks for having me, and thank you for 572 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:23,960 Speaker 1: listening to zero now for the sound of the week. 573 00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:33,760 Speaker 1: That's the sound of rock fall and the main climbing 574 00:30:33,800 --> 00:30:37,240 Speaker 1: route up mont Blanc. For the first time in recorded history, 575 00:30:37,560 --> 00:30:40,480 Speaker 1: during this European heat wave in June, the summit of 576 00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:44,760 Speaker 1: mont Blanc, at a height of four meters, remained above 577 00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:49,040 Speaker 1: freezing for a full twenty four hour period. Warmer temperatures 578 00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:52,040 Speaker 1: are leading to more rock fall across the Alps as 579 00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:55,760 Speaker 1: permafrost melts. If you liked this episode, please take a 580 00:30:55,760 --> 00:30:57,920 Speaker 1: moment to rate and review the show on Apple Podcasts 581 00:30:57,960 --> 00:31:00,800 Speaker 1: and Spotify. Share this episode with a friend or with 582 00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:04,479 Speaker 1: the lobbyist. This episode was produced by Oscar boyd Our. 583 00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,600 Speaker 1: Theme music is composed by Wonderly Special Thanks to Jessica 584 00:31:07,640 --> 00:31:13,200 Speaker 1: bec Samersati, Mosses Andam and Shawan Wagner. I'm Akshatrati back soon.