WEBVTT - K-Shaped Recovery and Government Stimulus 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.400 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carole Masser and I'm 0:00:04.440 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanabek. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.280 --> 0:00:09.799 you the latest news from the world of business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.600 plus technology, politics, economics, all harnessing the power of Business 0:00:13.640 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:19.599 analyst in more than one and twenty countries. You can 0:00:19.640 --> 0:00:23.200 download Bloomberg Business Week and iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:25.120 You can also listen to our radio show at two 0:00:25.160 --> 0:00:27.840 pm Eastern Time on Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 0:00:27.880 --> 0:00:34.479 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. So something Tim that we've 0:00:34.479 --> 0:00:36.159 definitely been talking about in the news room amount of 0:00:36.200 --> 0:00:38.440 know what you folks over at Quick Take, whether it's 0:00:38.479 --> 0:00:41.720 been on your mind this morning, But about Texas Governor 0:00:41.760 --> 0:00:44.360 Greg Abbott lifting the mask mandate Texas, I think actually 0:00:44.360 --> 0:00:46.279 you and I may be touched on it yesterday. Yeah, 0:00:46.400 --> 0:00:48.879 we did towards the late in the day yesterday, but 0:00:49.000 --> 0:00:51.120 it was the lead of our nine am show this morning, 0:00:51.200 --> 0:00:54.680 because look, this comes at a time where people definitely 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:56.400 do not feel like we're on the other side of 0:00:56.440 --> 0:00:59.040 the pandemic and healthcare professionals are saying, hey, it's a 0:00:59.040 --> 0:01:02.080 little early to be opening up. Yeah, and they're getting 0:01:02.080 --> 0:01:04.200 ready to allow businesses to operate at full capacity. I 0:01:04.240 --> 0:01:06.280 think it all begins next week, even though some of 0:01:06.319 --> 0:01:08.600 their city and county officials say, wait a minute, this 0:01:08.720 --> 0:01:11.840 is too fast. Basically, let's get into it, because we 0:01:11.880 --> 0:01:13.960 did get an update on the vaccine and the virus 0:01:14.040 --> 0:01:17.080 yesterday from President Biden talking about all Americans will have 0:01:17.240 --> 0:01:21.759 enough UH COVID vaccines by May, but working on getting 0:01:21.760 --> 0:01:24.880 the places and the vaccinators in place to give them out. 0:01:25.280 --> 0:01:27.400 Let's get to our guest. A. Lissa Wraps, she CEO 0:01:27.440 --> 0:01:30.880 of the healthcare solutions company Surgical Solutions. She's with us 0:01:30.920 --> 0:01:33.280 once again on the phone from Deerfield, Illinois. A. Lissa, 0:01:33.400 --> 0:01:36.480 nice to have you back here on Bloomberg. How are you. 0:01:37.319 --> 0:01:39.520 I'm well, Carol, Hi, Tim, Thanks for having me back. 0:01:39.560 --> 0:01:41.840 And I'm feeling a little bit more optimistic about the 0:01:41.840 --> 0:01:44.399 state of vaccine than I even was a few days ago. 0:01:44.520 --> 0:01:47.800 How come I think that now that J and J 0:01:48.080 --> 0:01:49.960 has had the shot approved and there's just going to 0:01:50.080 --> 0:01:52.960 be more vaccine in the market. You know, if if 0:01:52.960 --> 0:01:55.880 we're on a current average of one point nine million 0:01:55.920 --> 0:01:59.720 shots given per day at that page of American adults 0:01:59.760 --> 0:02:02.840 could be vaccinated by August and maybe we can accelerate 0:02:02.840 --> 0:02:06.360 that further, and that becomes that interesting almost tipping point 0:02:06.720 --> 0:02:09.160 for from a herd immunity standpoint with adults. Now the 0:02:09.200 --> 0:02:11.720 children are a different issue. I understand J and J 0:02:11.919 --> 0:02:14.640 vaccines plus has less efficacy than the other two, but 0:02:14.720 --> 0:02:18.880 at the same time, that's a much greater clip of vaccinations, 0:02:18.919 --> 0:02:21.200 which is I think possibly a light at the end 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:23.920 of the tunnel. Lissa, that's I mean, that's great, great 0:02:23.960 --> 0:02:26.440 to hear that the optimism has changed in just recent days. 0:02:26.440 --> 0:02:28.720 You have over two hundred employees on the front lines 0:02:28.960 --> 0:02:32.200 of the COVID nineteen crisis. They're working to provide services 0:02:32.240 --> 0:02:35.040 and equipment for hospitals. What are you hearing from them? 0:02:35.040 --> 0:02:37.079 What's it like for them on the front lines right now? 0:02:37.919 --> 0:02:40.600 So in the early days it was really well throughout, 0:02:40.600 --> 0:02:43.880 COVID has been extraordinary and clinician burnout and they're burnout 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:46.080 is very real. So that's a whole different conversation. But 0:02:46.120 --> 0:02:48.880 as it relates to the vaccine in the last few months, 0:02:48.960 --> 0:02:51.160 as their sites of service in the thirty five possibles 0:02:51.160 --> 0:02:54.680 where Surgical Solutions operates. As they've all been receiving the vaccine. 0:02:54.919 --> 0:02:56.920 There were still hiccups that we talked a little bit 0:02:56.919 --> 0:02:58.600 about that when I was last on how there were 0:02:58.639 --> 0:03:02.400 hiccups and delivery even that hospitals of all essential workers, 0:03:02.400 --> 0:03:05.320 which I found very frustrating due to regulatory requirements and 0:03:05.639 --> 0:03:09.240 tracking um through technology. But now I think some of 0:03:09.280 --> 0:03:12.280 that has been solved for and now we're seeing and 0:03:12.320 --> 0:03:16.200 the education of our staff through lots of mechanisms is high, 0:03:16.280 --> 0:03:19.160 so we are seeing a much greater clip of people 0:03:19.200 --> 0:03:21.800 getting the first shot and then a second. We've all 0:03:21.840 --> 0:03:24.880 been receiving maderna advisor to date, and I'm hopeful that 0:03:24.880 --> 0:03:27.040 when it when there's a one shot option, we'll see 0:03:27.040 --> 0:03:30.320 it increase even further. But at least the friction in 0:03:30.400 --> 0:03:33.680 terms of getting the vaccine as an essential worker seems 0:03:33.720 --> 0:03:36.600 to have been dramatically reduced, and now access to vaccines 0:03:36.640 --> 0:03:40.320 themselves sites of hospitals being out of vaccine seems to be. 0:03:40.360 --> 0:03:42.920 Replenishment seems to be going a little bit better. That's good. 0:03:42.960 --> 0:03:45.120 That's great to hear because you guys are seeing it directly. 0:03:45.360 --> 0:03:47.800 What about the one of the things that President Biden 0:03:47.800 --> 0:03:51.040 brought up is getting kind of the supersites out there 0:03:51.080 --> 0:03:53.480 so that people can actually get the vaccine and having 0:03:53.480 --> 0:03:56.440 the vaccinators in place. And I'm curious if that's where 0:03:56.560 --> 0:04:00.120 you know some of your employees and team members know 0:04:00.600 --> 0:04:02.960 really are seeing this firsthand. Are they being asked to 0:04:03.040 --> 0:04:06.040 work long our work more places to get those vaccines out. 0:04:06.960 --> 0:04:10.360 We haven't been a part of the actual vaccination team yet, 0:04:10.360 --> 0:04:13.080 although we're working longer hours and and doing all sorts 0:04:13.080 --> 0:04:16.719 of things to support minimally invasive surgeries, which is tangentially related. 0:04:16.760 --> 0:04:20.039 But I firmly believe that working with our existing big 0:04:20.080 --> 0:04:22.680 box retailers, and it almost doesn't matter which one we 0:04:22.720 --> 0:04:25.599 talk about, whether it's a Walgreens or CVS or a 0:04:25.600 --> 0:04:29.560 Walmart or Costco that has infrastructure for shot delivery. As 0:04:29.600 --> 0:04:31.960 you know, will Greens all ready have the food shot 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:34.840 as as this Costco, etcetera. That to me is the 0:04:35.240 --> 0:04:37.640 cleanest and simplest way to ensure that it's going to 0:04:37.720 --> 0:04:41.600 be mass rollout from a retail consumer facing perspective. I'm 0:04:41.600 --> 0:04:45.440 wondering how you're thinking about this year as the CEO 0:04:46.040 --> 0:04:49.560 of Surgical Solutions. What are you planning for in terms 0:04:49.640 --> 0:04:54.440 of how your employees will change their behavior once we 0:04:54.480 --> 0:04:56.520 are on the other side of this pandemic. How they're 0:04:56.560 --> 0:04:58.960 going to I mean, I gotta tell you, Uh, we 0:04:59.040 --> 0:05:02.680 are like planning for mass vacations at this point, and 0:05:02.720 --> 0:05:05.000 I'm wondering as as a leader, like how do you 0:05:05.040 --> 0:05:09.080 plan for that because people have some pent up demand 0:05:09.120 --> 0:05:11.040 to take a break, right, Like you all can't take 0:05:11.120 --> 0:05:14.960 August off? Sorry? Right? No, No, that certainly wouldn't work. Actually, 0:05:14.960 --> 0:05:17.720 scheduling a vacation time has become a very real priority 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:20.720 in team leaders could call our account supervisors or junior 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:23.520 account managers. Have to be very I have to be 0:05:23.600 --> 0:05:26.039 very dedicated and clear and how they're going to allow 0:05:26.120 --> 0:05:29.000 for staggered vacation time because people need it, We want 0:05:29.000 --> 0:05:30.920 them to have it. They've earned it, they should take it. 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:32.760 But you can't take it all at once, to your point, 0:05:32.880 --> 0:05:35.760 and so making sure we're intentional so there isn't a 0:05:35.880 --> 0:05:38.440 drop in coverage and being choiceful and how we planned 0:05:38.480 --> 0:05:40.760 for that's going to be important. And then also being 0:05:41.400 --> 0:05:44.280 being clear that in past years people have chosen not 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:46.280 to take vacation. It's like no, no, not only have 0:05:46.320 --> 0:05:48.240 you learned it, you should take it. We all need 0:05:48.279 --> 0:05:51.720 a break. It's exhausting. This has been exhausting on numerous levels, 0:05:52.160 --> 0:05:54.479 and taking the time off is really key. A couple 0:05:54.520 --> 0:05:58.120 of our one of our director of implementation, UM, we 0:05:58.160 --> 0:06:00.320 had and rotate for a few days off only, and 0:06:00.360 --> 0:06:02.719 he came back saying he was super rejuvenated and refreshed 0:06:02.760 --> 0:06:04.720 with his music. To my ears, that's what time off 0:06:04.800 --> 0:06:07.080 is supposed to do. So it's needed and we just 0:06:07.080 --> 0:06:09.320 need to be planning for it here, especially especially in 0:06:09.320 --> 0:06:11.560 this time when kind of the lines are blurred between 0:06:11.640 --> 0:06:15.320 work and home and all of that. UM Alyssa, always 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:18.320 great to uh talk with you. Alessa Wrap, CEO over 0:06:18.400 --> 0:06:21.599 Surgical Solutions, joining us on the phone from Deerfield, Illinois. 0:06:21.960 --> 0:06:25.279 What's the message, take a vacation. This is Bloomberg Business 0:06:25.320 --> 0:06:29.080 Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovich 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:33.159 from Bloomberg Radio. A lot of great stories being reported 0:06:33.200 --> 0:06:36.200 for Bloomberg Business Week. What about sick time during working 0:06:36.240 --> 0:06:37.680 from home? We're going to get to that a little 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:39.600 bit later on. Then there's a story that stayed at 0:06:39.600 --> 0:06:42.080 the top of the most read on the Bloomberg from 0:06:42.120 --> 0:06:44.160 most of yesterday about that four day work week. You 0:06:44.200 --> 0:06:46.640 can I talked about that. Yeah, sounds pretty nice. I 0:06:46.680 --> 0:06:48.440 think to a lot of people it was like, sign 0:06:48.560 --> 0:06:51.719 me up to everyone. Well. Stevan Nikola is the person 0:06:51.760 --> 0:06:54.680 who wrote that story. German business reporter on for Bloomberg 0:06:54.680 --> 0:06:57.240 News joining us on the phone from Berlin. Stevan, it's 0:06:57.279 --> 0:06:58.720 great to talk to you about this. I loved it 0:06:58.760 --> 0:07:01.280 when you joined us on quick Take yesterday. UM tell 0:07:01.360 --> 0:07:05.720 us about the company a when Yeah, thanks for having 0:07:05.760 --> 0:07:10.200 me so. ABAN is a Berlin based tech company that 0:07:10.880 --> 0:07:15.560 when it went into lockdown last year, it realized that 0:07:15.680 --> 0:07:20.520 its employees stuffered from stress, and it gave employees half 0:07:20.520 --> 0:07:23.800 of Friday off U two sort of ease into the weekend. 0:07:23.840 --> 0:07:28.160 And that experiment went so well sales, employee engagement, and 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:33.160 clients and satisfaction all rose that in January, ABN decided 0:07:33.200 --> 0:07:35.320 to go a step further and they rolled out a 0:07:35.440 --> 0:07:38.880 full day week for the entire company with no cuts 0:07:38.880 --> 0:07:42.160 and salaries of benefits, and the CEO says it's working 0:07:42.200 --> 0:07:46.200 really well. Toe Webber, I'm thinking, all right, sign me 0:07:46.280 --> 0:07:48.520 up Bloomberg Business Week nitor Toie Webber is here on 0:07:48.560 --> 0:07:51.000 the Access Land in Brooklyn. I feel like, as we're 0:07:51.040 --> 0:07:54.760 all thinking about Joel getting back to work post pandemic. 0:07:54.760 --> 0:07:56.880 We're trying to figure out is it a hybrid? Are 0:07:56.880 --> 0:07:58.559 we working from home? Are we going to the office? 0:07:58.600 --> 0:08:02.520 What is it? Yeah? You know, more importantly, like if 0:08:02.560 --> 0:08:04.280 you're going to do a four day work week, which 0:08:04.400 --> 0:08:08.000 which day do you exercise from that work week? You know, 0:08:08.640 --> 0:08:12.560 like Friday is the obvious choice, but like Monday, there's 0:08:12.800 --> 0:08:17.200 clearly strong case for that. Yeah, Like Wednesday was like 0:08:17.400 --> 0:08:20.440 the out of the box. When that a colleague said, like, 0:08:20.480 --> 0:08:23.160 what why bother with Wednesday? So I thought it was 0:08:23.160 --> 0:08:26.240 fitting that on a Wednesday we would talk about which 0:08:26.280 --> 0:08:30.080 one to get it up. But but seven, the thing 0:08:30.160 --> 0:08:32.079 that I thought was most interesting about this is like, 0:08:32.160 --> 0:08:34.520 even if you lop off a day, whichever day of 0:08:34.520 --> 0:08:37.080 the week it happens to be, it doesn't seem to 0:08:37.160 --> 0:08:41.960 affect productivity. What did we learn about that? Yeah, so 0:08:42.640 --> 0:08:46.960 there are studies out there that productivity isn't dropping in 0:08:47.040 --> 0:08:51.920 some cases, Um, we are seeing increased productivity even and 0:08:52.240 --> 0:08:55.400 the CEO of the company told me he saw the same. 0:08:56.920 --> 0:09:01.720 He said that employees find ways to work smarter and 0:09:01.800 --> 0:09:04.839 not less, but smarter and that just as productive and 0:09:04.840 --> 0:09:09.640 and just um, going back to the Monday, Wednesday, Friday discussion. 0:09:10.040 --> 0:09:13.280 He said that Friday's are the most popular days to 0:09:13.360 --> 0:09:16.719 take off, followed by Monday and then actually Wednesday, as 0:09:16.720 --> 0:09:20.120 you suggested, because it gives people a nice break in 0:09:20.160 --> 0:09:22.800 the middle of the week and they can restart recharged. 0:09:22.880 --> 0:09:24.960 I'm just gonna say Fridays I like because that's always 0:09:25.000 --> 0:09:27.200 sometimes have a wine guest and we can drink wine 0:09:27.200 --> 0:09:30.839 on here. So I'm not getting rid of Friday. Let's 0:09:30.840 --> 0:09:32.320 get rid of my money. Nobody says, give a case 0:09:32.320 --> 0:09:35.559 of the Fridays. You know what I'm wondering though, are 0:09:35.559 --> 0:09:37.920 we still productive these four days? Like we when they 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:41.640 cut it down? What did they find? Yeah, they did 0:09:41.720 --> 0:09:46.359 find that that productivity is basically the same or even improved. 0:09:47.000 --> 0:09:50.520 And Uh, it's that, you know, workers tend to be 0:09:50.559 --> 0:09:53.680 more focused during the four days, and they tend to 0:09:53.679 --> 0:09:57.400 put a lot of effort into those four days that 0:09:57.480 --> 0:10:01.480 they are either in the office or or king from home. Um. 0:10:01.520 --> 0:10:07.560 Interestingly enough, UM, the CEO of that company also expected 0:10:07.960 --> 0:10:12.040 you know, productivity to you know, uh suffer when he 0:10:12.160 --> 0:10:14.880 sent all of his employees at home, and he said 0:10:14.920 --> 0:10:18.320 clearly that didn't happen. Much of the country work has 0:10:18.320 --> 0:10:22.560 worked just as as well from home and uh, lopping 0:10:22.600 --> 0:10:27.000 off another day with the natural choice for him, and 0:10:27.040 --> 0:10:30.760 he said it really restored a work life balance that 0:10:31.000 --> 0:10:34.840 has you know, left him energized for the rest of 0:10:34.840 --> 0:10:37.640 the week. Hey, Stephan, I want to move to another 0:10:37.679 --> 0:10:41.160 story that you wrote, this one coming out today talking 0:10:41.160 --> 0:10:44.319 about Tesla speaking of the corporate world. You've got to 0:10:44.320 --> 0:10:46.720 get to those four days of work somehow. And it 0:10:46.760 --> 0:10:50.679 turns out the European corporate car market is huge. This 0:10:50.760 --> 0:10:54.120 was really surprising for me to see. Um, a lot 0:10:54.240 --> 0:10:58.880 of companies are a company's account for a large proportion 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:04.000 of cars so old, uh in Europe, right, Yeah, that's 0:11:04.080 --> 0:11:09.160 that's correct. Around around sixty percent of new cars sold 0:11:09.280 --> 0:11:12.360 in Europe are brought by corporate customers. So that is 0:11:12.400 --> 0:11:16.160 the huge market. And uh, it's worth about three hundred 0:11:16.280 --> 0:11:21.360 sixty billion dollars and it's a market the local automakers dominate. 0:11:22.040 --> 0:11:25.439 UM and of course Tesla has a hard time cracking 0:11:25.480 --> 0:11:30.599 that market, partly because it's lacking servicing stations. One company 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:34.240 told me that you know, it's it's workers would love 0:11:34.320 --> 0:11:38.480 to get Tesler's but the company is not comfortable offering 0:11:38.559 --> 0:11:42.560 those cars as a perk because they are afraid that 0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:46.760 these employees would take time off from work to to 0:11:46.840 --> 0:11:51.760 deal with repairs, and the likes from Mercedes, BMW and Volkswagen. 0:11:52.080 --> 0:11:55.720 They offer same day fixes nearby for these company cars 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:58.400 that that these workers get as a perk, and and 0:11:58.480 --> 0:12:02.880 that's why there's there's the favorite models for many companies. 0:12:03.480 --> 0:12:06.080 But if you're only working four days, you know that 0:12:06.320 --> 0:12:08.840 extra day seems like a day that you could like 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:13.280 your car. Just bringing it all together here with the bone. 0:12:14.679 --> 0:12:17.760 But how big of a deal is this really? For 0:12:18.120 --> 0:12:22.120 teslasting like they are? You know, clearly they have demand 0:12:22.160 --> 0:12:24.720 if it's many people want them, so so is this 0:12:24.800 --> 0:12:28.000 corporate um conundrum going to end up being a headache 0:12:28.040 --> 0:12:31.480 for them? And Stefan just got about thirty seconds. Yeah, 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:34.160 I look for now of course, Um, you know, the 0:12:34.200 --> 0:12:36.840 company is building a new plant in Berlin. It's going 0:12:36.920 --> 0:12:40.360 to be huge outputting as much as five from thousand carts, 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:43.319 so they need to sell those costs somewhere, and the 0:12:43.440 --> 0:12:46.160 corporate car market is just too big to ignore for them. 0:12:46.600 --> 0:12:48.360 So I think there's a third story that stuff I 0:12:48.440 --> 0:12:50.480 can do that ties it all together. I can find 0:12:50.520 --> 0:12:53.760 one the week. The week is not done yet, good 0:12:53.760 --> 0:12:56.400 stuff guys. Thank you so much. Jill Webber, Editor Bloomberg 0:12:56.400 --> 0:12:59.839 Business Week, Remote access from Brooklyn. Stuff on Nicola during 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:07.040 this reporter joining us from Bertlin, staying up for us. 0:13:07.080 --> 0:13:11.079 This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg 0:13:11.160 --> 0:13:16.199 Quick Takes. Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Are you are 0:13:16.240 --> 0:13:19.960 listening to Bloomberg Business Week and really looking forward to 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:22.920 our next guest? Because I feel like a top story 0:13:22.920 --> 0:13:25.079 at this hour. It's got to be, it continues to be, 0:13:25.480 --> 0:13:27.880 and that is the economy. We're counting down a Friday's 0:13:27.920 --> 0:13:30.839 monthly jobs report, watching the prospects for another round of 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:33.040 stimulus from d C. So I gotta say, great to 0:13:33.080 --> 0:13:35.319 have back with us. Peter Atwater. Yeah. Peter Atwater is 0:13:35.320 --> 0:13:38.000 an adjunct professor of economics that William and Mary joining 0:13:38.080 --> 0:13:41.240 us on the phone from Pennsylvania. Professor Atwater, Great to 0:13:41.240 --> 0:13:43.480 have you on the show. How are you doing. I'm 0:13:43.480 --> 0:13:46.880 doing well, Jim, Thank you good. Um. What do you 0:13:46.920 --> 0:13:48.640 think of the we've been We've been dying to have 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:50.160 you on and we're ucky I get so much time 0:13:50.200 --> 0:13:52.880 with you. How is the American economy doing right now? 0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:55.400 Because we are getting so many mixed signals. Right there's 0:13:55.400 --> 0:13:58.440 this optimism flashing in the bond market right now. The 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:02.080 stock market is just of of record highs in recent weeks. 0:14:02.320 --> 0:14:05.560 At the same time, though, ten million Americans out of work, 0:14:07.240 --> 0:14:11.360 so it continues to be the case shaped recovery. Um. 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:15.040 For those that were able to migrate to work from home, 0:14:15.640 --> 0:14:18.760 they are now counting down the hours to the reopening 0:14:18.760 --> 0:14:22.080 of the economy and getting back to life as normal. 0:14:22.800 --> 0:14:26.280 But as you said, there are ten million Americans unemployed, 0:14:26.400 --> 0:14:31.000 four point five million filing continuing claims, for whom the 0:14:31.040 --> 0:14:35.120 recovery is going to be very slow, even once it's reopened. 0:14:35.360 --> 0:14:37.480 What's kind of wacky is and we just did a 0:14:37.480 --> 0:14:40.480 conversation with one of our reporters. It's among our most 0:14:40.480 --> 0:14:42.480 read stories on the Bloomberg and it has to do 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:47.040 with um Peter, what's going on in states and state revenues. 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:48.640 I think we all thought, oh my god, the states 0:14:48.640 --> 0:14:51.160 are going to fall apart, municipalities are going to fall apart. 0:14:51.440 --> 0:14:55.400 Revenues actually aren't down that much, and this is kind 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:58.520 of going against They expected two hundred billion in state 0:14:58.560 --> 0:15:02.280 A that's that's expected to come from the COVID relief 0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:06.480 package from President Biden, what do you say to that? 0:15:07.320 --> 0:15:11.640 So I say that we're seeing similar unevenness that we're 0:15:11.640 --> 0:15:14.560 seeing with individuals that we're seeing with businesses, we're seeing 0:15:14.600 --> 0:15:18.040 it with states. And so the challenge now for the 0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:23.000 administration is how do you provide support for the states 0:15:23.000 --> 0:15:25.920 that are not doing well in the face of the 0:15:25.960 --> 0:15:30.840 economy about to reopen, and you know, without it being 0:15:31.240 --> 0:15:34.720 viewed as a bailout on the one hand, and also 0:15:34.760 --> 0:15:39.480 without it being viewed as incremental stimulus. That runs the 0:15:39.560 --> 0:15:42.800 risk of the economy running hot. And I think it's 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:45.920 going to be very difficult for the administration to get 0:15:45.960 --> 0:15:49.320 the current package that it's proposed on the States through 0:15:50.080 --> 0:15:53.320 because it, as as things stand right now, it gives 0:15:53.400 --> 0:15:56.680 everybody a reason not to like it. It's too much stimulus, 0:15:56.680 --> 0:15:59.320 it's too much relief, it's a bailout. Something is going 0:15:59.360 --> 0:16:03.400 to have to give there. Well, are you worried about inflation? 0:16:04.920 --> 0:16:10.080 I'm not. I I feel like the lone voice here. 0:16:10.560 --> 0:16:17.400 You know, last week, last week, we saw this intense capitulation, 0:16:17.440 --> 0:16:22.160 this intense climax on the reflation trade and bond yield. 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:25.000 You know, Carol, I I spent a lot of time 0:16:25.040 --> 0:16:28.480 looking at Google trends, and I do because it shows 0:16:28.520 --> 0:16:32.560 when the retail investors shows up and suddenly last week 0:16:32.920 --> 0:16:35.800 all they wanted to do was to search for reflation 0:16:36.320 --> 0:16:39.440 and bond yields. And that feels, you know, we may 0:16:39.480 --> 0:16:42.680 go a little higher, but that feels to me very 0:16:42.720 --> 0:16:46.800 sort of game stopp ish, where there was this intense 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:52.720 rory that then fizzled out. And I honestly think folks 0:16:52.720 --> 0:16:56.240 have gotten way ahead of themselves on the reopening. So 0:16:56.320 --> 0:16:57.720 do you think the move up, like we were talking 0:16:57.760 --> 0:16:59.520 about the tenure at one point five, we've gone as 0:16:59.560 --> 0:17:01.920 far as point six. I kind of see it as 0:17:01.920 --> 0:17:04.800 a little bit of a catchup from the equity bounce 0:17:04.880 --> 0:17:08.919 back of okay, where we can see a trajectory of 0:17:09.440 --> 0:17:12.680 things getting better, it's going to take a while. How 0:17:12.720 --> 0:17:15.320 did you see the move up though and yields? So 0:17:15.560 --> 0:17:18.560 I I saw it in some ways very much mirroring 0:17:18.640 --> 0:17:22.320 what we've seen in commodities and and so we've also 0:17:22.440 --> 0:17:26.679 seen everybody now worried about shortages and you know the 0:17:26.720 --> 0:17:29.720 supply chain being a problem. The White House had a 0:17:29.760 --> 0:17:33.399 group of folks in last week worrying about chips supply 0:17:34.119 --> 0:17:36.399 and so that to me is all indicative of the 0:17:36.520 --> 0:17:40.159 same kind of sentiment that there's that there are shortages, 0:17:40.320 --> 0:17:43.960 that inflation is built into the system, and that problems 0:17:43.960 --> 0:17:48.560 are coming ahead. But it all presupposes that when the 0:17:48.600 --> 0:17:54.840 economy quote unquote reopens, people now fantasize that they're going 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:56.879 to get back to what was, and we never do. 0:17:57.640 --> 0:17:59.520 I love this. I tweeted about this way. I just 0:17:59.520 --> 0:18:02.240 gotta jump because you say this whole idea of getting 0:18:02.280 --> 0:18:06.840 back to normal, right, the return to normal. I probably 0:18:06.840 --> 0:18:09.040 would be a really rich woman if I had a 0:18:09.160 --> 0:18:11.200 nickel for every time I said it or a guest 0:18:11.240 --> 0:18:13.560 said it. But you're saying that we don't. That's not 0:18:13.600 --> 0:18:20.600 what happens. No, we we carry our experiences, particularly traumatic experiences, 0:18:20.720 --> 0:18:25.440 with us, and I think that there's those that did 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:29.399 not experience trauma. They've been spending wildly on homes and 0:18:29.520 --> 0:18:33.840 other things um already. So I struggle other than with 0:18:34.080 --> 0:18:38.000 travel and some entertainment where those at the very top 0:18:38.040 --> 0:18:41.800 are now suddenly going to splurge. But I worry as 0:18:41.880 --> 0:18:46.680 we moved down the economic chain, there there are people 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:51.840 who have been traumatized by this financially and for whom 0:18:51.880 --> 0:18:57.200 I think we're going to see continued hoarding, continued reluctance 0:18:57.240 --> 0:19:00.800 to spend um. You know, I think about it in 0:19:00.880 --> 0:19:03.920 terms of what I call the pantry effect, where when 0:19:03.920 --> 0:19:06.080 you when you didn't have enough toilet paper, when you 0:19:06.119 --> 0:19:08.320 didn't have enough you know, whatever it was that you 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:11.680 were rushing to costco to bill a spring, Well, it's 0:19:11.680 --> 0:19:14.840 still in your house even though supplies have come back. 0:19:15.400 --> 0:19:17.800 For Peter, is there is there any silver lining to that? 0:19:17.840 --> 0:19:20.840 I know it doesn't have the stimulus effects that economists 0:19:20.880 --> 0:19:22.920 want to see, that the Biden administration wants to see. 0:19:22.920 --> 0:19:25.959 But is there any silver lining to hoarding cash and 0:19:26.119 --> 0:19:28.360 paying down debt for some of these people who you say, 0:19:28.359 --> 0:19:31.880 we're financially traumatized and when we have about thirty seconds left? Yeah, 0:19:31.960 --> 0:19:35.720 I do think that there is getting stable, you know, 0:19:35.920 --> 0:19:39.000 getting some certainty and control back to their their lives 0:19:39.080 --> 0:19:42.119 is important, and I think that's part of the stimulus effort. 0:19:42.680 --> 0:19:45.960 But I think to assume that they're going to now 0:19:46.000 --> 0:19:50.639 wildly spend is woefully optimistic. Listen, I've said it a 0:19:50.640 --> 0:19:53.679 million times. We love hearing from you. You first coined 0:19:53.680 --> 0:19:55.520 the term to describe the economic world that we have 0:19:55.600 --> 0:19:57.439 been in this K shaped recovery, and I have to 0:19:57.480 --> 0:19:59.840 say in the break and Tim maybe you come in 0:19:59.840 --> 0:20:02.399 on because we've been talking about the case recovery as 0:20:02.440 --> 0:20:05.520 it relates to the covered relief package. Yeah, and it's 0:20:05.520 --> 0:20:08.320 a conversation happening in Washington right now. Just today President 0:20:08.359 --> 0:20:11.439 Joe Biden agreeing to moderate Democrats demands to narrow that 0:20:11.520 --> 0:20:15.120 eligibility for those stimulus checks. So now individuals earning over 0:20:15.240 --> 0:20:18.879 eighty dollars would not qualify for those direct payments, compared 0:20:18.920 --> 0:20:20.720 with a hundred thousand dollar cap that was in the 0:20:20.760 --> 0:20:23.920 previously drafted legislation. The ceiling for couples will now be 0:20:23.920 --> 0:20:26.800 a hundred and sixty thousand UM as compared to two 0:20:26.840 --> 0:20:29.760 hundred thousand before. Professor Atwater, is that the right move? 0:20:29.840 --> 0:20:31.640 Is that the right way to address the k shaped 0:20:31.680 --> 0:20:34.679 recovery here? Yeah? I think it is. I think that 0:20:34.720 --> 0:20:39.120 there has been you know, the policymakers use fairly blunt tools, 0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:42.240 and I think initially there was a sense that everyone 0:20:42.280 --> 0:20:45.840 needed to be helped. There is much greater clarity today. 0:20:45.920 --> 0:20:48.680 I think where the pain really is as well as 0:20:48.760 --> 0:20:52.920 where those who have benefit really have have have fared. 0:20:53.000 --> 0:20:57.200 So I think that there is a need for greater 0:20:57.280 --> 0:21:01.919 precision and folks us on those whose whose lives have 0:21:02.040 --> 0:21:06.600 been upended versus those who are already on their trajectory 0:21:06.640 --> 0:21:10.400 to recovery. So I want to ask you. I kind 0:21:10.400 --> 0:21:14.560 of love your mix of you worked in financial services, 0:21:14.680 --> 0:21:17.959 you're in academia, Like you've seen a lot, you understand 0:21:18.160 --> 0:21:21.119 the intersection of a lot. Peter and I do wonder 0:21:21.160 --> 0:21:23.720 if we are at this juncture where we can really 0:21:23.760 --> 0:21:26.200 make some big changes in our economy, in our world 0:21:26.240 --> 0:21:29.120 and the inequities that are out there that are longer lasting. 0:21:29.160 --> 0:21:31.240 Like I've got cousin t J who's tweeting at me 0:21:31.280 --> 0:21:33.320 and I said, do you have a question for professor Atwater? 0:21:33.359 --> 0:21:36.640 He says, yeah, the economics of infrastructure and spectrum upgrades, 0:21:36.640 --> 0:21:39.040 the economic costs of not doing them, Like, there are 0:21:39.040 --> 0:21:40.879 things we need to be thinking about. How do you 0:21:40.920 --> 0:21:43.119 think about it in terms of let's do that long 0:21:43.240 --> 0:21:48.480 term plan for America. So, I think given the current mood, 0:21:49.200 --> 0:21:52.919 it's going to be difficult for us to tackle abstract 0:21:53.000 --> 0:21:58.240 ideas like climate change. Now having said that, I think 0:21:58.320 --> 0:22:03.480 there is enormous energy around addressing the problems that come 0:22:03.560 --> 0:22:08.000