Speaker 1: Check it on Man No Down Man. Thursday, January fourteen
Speaker 1: one is the Beating the Book Mega pod for Divisional
Speaker 1: round playoffs in the National Football League. It's Gill Alexander. Uh.
Speaker 1: This is a special one because we have more than
Speaker 1: one rotating guests. Uh. The staples of the show here
Speaker 1: as always Mike Palm, Derek Stephen's conciliary here at Circus Sports.
Speaker 1: How you doing, Mike? Wonderful? Wonderful? Can we announce your
Speaker 1: show that's coming up real quick? We cannot talk about time, okay,
Speaker 1: because the visa and people didn't tell the people who
Speaker 1: would affects when they're gonna tell a person he's going
Speaker 1: from days to swing that they might want to tell
Speaker 1: him before the day before. Should I have not brought
Speaker 1: that up? It's okay, you could say it's not the
Speaker 1: time slide. Okay, Well you'll have your own show. We'll
Speaker 1: have a show with the Mall Shaw you will go
Speaker 1: that will air Monday through. What is it called? Well,
Speaker 1: I'll tell you right now. The working title is the
Speaker 1: Nuts in U t Z I like it? Uh poker
Speaker 1: reference it is um Derek wanted odds odds on with
Speaker 1: Mike and am All, but Bill said, you can't protect
Speaker 1: that anything with odds in it. Yeah, Bill wanted the playbook,
Speaker 1: but I think that ignores them all. My personal favorite
Speaker 1: is the Mayor and the Mumbai. But they said it's
Speaker 1: a little risk, gay little risk. That's a really interesting
Speaker 1: choice you got there for co host My kind of interesting.
Speaker 1: Oh that that voice is the other stable of the show,
Speaker 1: Todd wishneb who feels as though he got snubbed. Did
Speaker 1: Hashem get you again? Todd? Is this a Schem's fault?
Speaker 1: By the way, For the gentiles listening again, Hashem what
Speaker 1: what renounced? Orthodox Jews like Todd referred to as God?
Speaker 1: My parents who are Israelian, do not use that. I
Speaker 1: cannot say God. Isn't it yahweh? Oh? No? No? What
Speaker 1: is yahweh? We say Yawei? I know that's something. Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's though. It's something Hashim the name, by the way,
Speaker 1: literally Zella what our rotatings. As Aaron Schott said when
Speaker 1: he famously came on this program, he goes, it's gonna
Speaker 1: take me a little while to get used to the
Speaker 1: rhythm of the rhythm of the show. Right, it's for
Speaker 1: our offensive lineman who, for the better part of a decade,
Speaker 1: played for five different teams in the National Football League. Uh,
Speaker 1: and he's been kind enough to come on a Numbers
Speaker 1: game now on the megapod. Played for Panthers, Vikings, Chiefs, Giants,
Speaker 1: and Lions. Brother Mitchell plays with Kansas City Chiefs. Is
Speaker 1: Jeff Schwartz. Everybody, how you doing, Jeff? I am good.
Speaker 1: I feel like I fitted right away. Another another Jew
Speaker 1: on the podcast, and we're very close to him, Minion.
Speaker 1: So it's good to go. You are a true member
Speaker 1: of the leaflet. You are. This is the first time
Speaker 1: we've ever had a legit guy on the leaflet. By
Speaker 1: the way, Jeff also has UH. He works for Serious
Speaker 1: Does Things with Fox Sports. Has two podcasts. Uh. Jeff
Speaker 1: Schwartz is smarter than you Apple. Name one of them. Jeff,
Speaker 1: have you ever heard the Young Kipper massacre story? Okay, Todd,
Speaker 1: I'm giving the intro. Can we wait for that for
Speaker 1: a second? One more. He's also has a podcast called
Speaker 1: Minus three with Check and Schwartz with former NFL network
Speaker 1: personality Dave Damaet cousin salso was on there. What did
Speaker 1: I miss? Jeff? What else did I leave? Uh? That's
Speaker 1: about enough. Some one office every now and then, But
Speaker 1: I want to know about the young keep massacres, one
Speaker 1: of the great gambling stories. First, my first appearance on
Speaker 1: the Guilt uh Numbers game show at Visa, I told
Speaker 1: the Young Kipper massacre story, which is a story that
Speaker 1: it can't be made up, but it has to do
Speaker 1: with Jews and gambling, and you will love it. I'll
Speaker 1: tell you after the after today's show. You don't want
Speaker 1: to tell it, let's tell you go through the whole thing. Yes,
Speaker 1: but can we introduced Las Vegas Chris first, and then
Speaker 1: we'll do the Young peopor Massacre. Okay, ladies and gentlemen.
Speaker 1: He finished second and fifth in this year's circumillions. He
Speaker 1: also finished with his two entries in the top like
Speaker 1: thirty six last year. He's one contest in Las Vegas
Speaker 1: over the last decade at the Palms at the Win
Speaker 1: he won college football last man standing at stations in
Speaker 1: uh Big Mocher. By the way, it's Las Vegas Chris. Everybody,
Speaker 1: Hey doing Chris, I'm doing well doing. We bring running
Speaker 1: late this morning. But one over a quarter of a
Speaker 1: million dollars altogether in terms of his two entries, his
Speaker 1: his quarterly prize and a hedge on that final game.
Speaker 1: And more impressive than all of that were was you
Speaker 1: coming on a numbers game and telling the telling the
Speaker 1: story about the mistake that you made in week sixteen,
Speaker 1: which was very transparent, honest, and more and even more
Speaker 1: than that. And I've run this the last couple of
Speaker 1: days on the radio side. You you tweeted out all
Speaker 1: of your picks beyond just the contest, all the football
Speaker 1: picks you've made this year, and you crushed it. There
Speaker 1: were only like picks, only nineteen of which were you
Speaker 1: negative closing line value on and you were seventeen and
Speaker 1: two in those. Dude, that's unbelievable. Nineteen And you're going
Speaker 1: to do a study on previous years for you to
Speaker 1: see if that's like something you've been doing. I actually
Speaker 1: got to it last night a little bit and it's
Speaker 1: not looking the same. So but you you figured it
Speaker 1: wouldn't look the same, right I was. I was hoping
Speaker 1: that it would. East Lean. I'm about a third through
Speaker 1: the last season and it's uh, um about fifty fifty
Speaker 1: and those that I get the worst of the line.
Speaker 1: Look at look at this, Mikey, look at this. Seventeen
Speaker 1: and two. Those are the only games he didn't have
Speaker 1: positive closing line value on. Dude, is that's the greatest
Speaker 1: season ever? Look at that? Do you remember those two
Speaker 1: you lost? Green Bay my November one, Pittsburgh December seven.
Speaker 1: That's it. That's the list that he lost on those,
Speaker 1: but nineteen total. Good for you, man, congratulations, just grinding,
Speaker 1: just grinding. You're you're the best, man, You're the best
Speaker 1: in the biz. Um. All right, before we do the
Speaker 1: divisional round, let's the show is only going to get
Speaker 1: worse after this. The Yom Kippor massacre from Todd wishnev
Speaker 1: one of the great gambling stories of baltime. Have you
Speaker 1: heard this before? Oh, it's the greatest story. Go ahead, Toddy, Jeff.
Speaker 1: The only reason because you say you're a Jew and
Speaker 1: you played in the National Football League. Which that's why
Speaker 1: this story is gonna make is going to be even
Speaker 1: greater for you. And that's why I feel like which
Speaker 1: should be told. So here's what happened, Todd. Stop, what
Speaker 1: do you mean he says he's a Jew? What do
Speaker 1: you mean by that that you doubt that he's a Jew?
Speaker 1: That he's pretending to be a jew? Jeff? If that
Speaker 1: is your day, that's right, you changed it to Schwartz.
Speaker 1: In the In the gambling world, you deal with a
Speaker 1: lot of people that are not necessarily who they say
Speaker 1: they are, so I have to be very careful, you
Speaker 1: know what I mean. You never know. Here's a Wikipedia
Speaker 1: page he played in the least hitting around bes right
Speaker 1: put on anyway. So here here's what happened, Jeff. It
Speaker 1: was back in two thousand and fourteen. I was betting
Speaker 1: way more money than I should have been betting on
Speaker 1: a particular game relative to my bank roll, and I
Speaker 1: absolutely needed to win this game. First of all, it
Speaker 1: happened to be yonme Kipper on the day, okay ki,
Speaker 1: I think it was like October fourth, two thousand fourteen.
Speaker 1: I was living in Los Angeles, and because I am
Speaker 1: a renounced Jew, I do not go to temple on
Speaker 1: yoham Kipper. I don't do any of that nonsense. I
Speaker 1: know it's a Saturday college football. It's a holiday. Because
Speaker 1: there's only about fourteen college football saturdays, you have to
Speaker 1: watch football. I don't care what day it is. So
Speaker 1: I go over my friend's house, who's like a phaghazy Jew,
Speaker 1: and uh watching the Uh we're watching the college and
Speaker 1: I have a huge bet. This is about three thirty.
Speaker 1: I have a huge under thirty four and a half
Speaker 1: in the second half of the Arizona State USC game. Okay,
Speaker 1: under thirty four now, so I'm just hoping no points,
Speaker 1: no points, no points. Right, it's late in the afternoon
Speaker 1: and USC and in Arizona State only scored thirteen points.
Speaker 1: There's like five minutes to go. There's no way I'm
Speaker 1: losing this game. This is about as easy and I
Speaker 1: need to win this game. I have a lot of
Speaker 1: money on this game. There's no way I'm losing this game.
Speaker 1: So I said to my friend the Phaghazzy Jew, who
Speaker 1: was fasting even though he's sitting there watching ledge football,
Speaker 1: and you choose fast. And since he's a the gaisy Jew,
Speaker 1: who wasn't actually the temple, he was just sitting there
Speaker 1: in college football with me. So I said to him, look,
Speaker 1: it's getting dark, you kipper, ends it dark. You know,
Speaker 1: I'll go around the corner and get you a sandwich.
Speaker 1: Because there's no way I'm gonna lose this game. That's
Speaker 1: how confident I am. I'm winning this game. I go
Speaker 1: around the corner, I get him a sandwich. I come
Speaker 1: back everything's fine. All of a sudden, with about like
Speaker 1: three minutes to go, touchdown on site's kick, recovery, touchdown,
Speaker 1: another touchdown, all these touchdowns, and I'm like starting to
Speaker 1: get very very nervous. But I'm still fine. I'm still
Speaker 1: absolutely fine. There's there's one play left. Arizona State is
Speaker 1: at the forty eight yard line of USC. They're gonna
Speaker 1: throw a hail Mary into the end zone. They'll knock
Speaker 1: it down, game over. It'll be thirty four instead of
Speaker 1: thirty four and a half. Everything will be fine. So
Speaker 1: the quarterback for Arizona State, Mike Berkovici, goes back to pass,
Speaker 1: throws it up into the air at the Los Angeles
Speaker 1: Memorial Coliseum. All the USC fans are expecting him to
Speaker 1: knock the ball down. I believe it was Jalen Samuel's
Speaker 1: maybe jumps in the air at the two yard line
Speaker 1: in front of a pack of people, catches the ball
Speaker 1: falls in the end zone. The colosseum is dead quiet.
Speaker 1: They can't believe what just happened. This insane win for
Speaker 1: air zone stage. But I'm even more crazy because I
Speaker 1: can't even believe that I lost this bet. My friend
Speaker 1: just looks at me, dumbfounded. We can't even believe what
Speaker 1: just happened. We can't even speak. It's just so incredible, right, Okay, fine,
Speaker 1: so that's just a bad beat story. Right, So, Jeff,
Speaker 1: you're gonna say that's what's so great about that story.
Speaker 1: It's just a stupid, bad beat story. Right. Well, here's
Speaker 1: where it gets interesting. Two weeks later, my friends at
Speaker 1: the coffee shop in Beverly Hills. He goes, you gotta
Speaker 1: come over here, you gotta come over here, you gotta
Speaker 1: meet somebody. I'm like, okay, whatever, First he sends me
Speaker 1: before he I'm sorry, I've screwed up. First, he sends
Speaker 1: me an email with a picture of a college football player.
Speaker 1: He's never sent me a picture of a college football
Speaker 1: player in his entire life. He doesn't know anything about football.
Speaker 1: It's a picture of somebody, and I say, do you
Speaker 1: know who that is? He goes, no, I said, that's
Speaker 1: the guy who through the Young Kipper massacre pass. That's
Speaker 1: Mike Bercovici. He goes, well, I his grandfather's here at
Speaker 1: the coffee shop. That's why I sent you the picture.
Speaker 1: I'm like, his grandfather is at the coffee shop. He's like, yeah,
Speaker 1: you gotta come over here and tell him what happened.
Speaker 1: Blah blah blah. So I go over the coffee shop.
Speaker 1: This guy named his name is like Ruben. He's like
Speaker 1: from Romania, very very thick accent. And we're talking and
Speaker 1: and we're talking about the game. And I said, oh,
Speaker 1: you know, your grand your grandson cost me a fortune
Speaker 1: a couple of weeks ago. And he's like, oh, yeah,
Speaker 1: the the what did he call it that? He doesn't
Speaker 1: call it? He goes, the Holy Moly. You're talking about
Speaker 1: the Holy Moly. I said, no, no, no, the Hail Mary.
Speaker 1: He goes, no, the Holy Mole. He calls it the
Speaker 1: Holy Moly. I go, yeah, the Holy Moli really cost
Speaker 1: me the Hail Mary touchdown pass. So we're talking and
Speaker 1: I'm like, wow, that was just one of the worst
Speaker 1: situations of all time. He's like, I said, were you
Speaker 1: at the game? You know, because the guy lives in
Speaker 1: Los Angeles, The grandfather lives in Los Angeles. I said.
Speaker 1: He goes, oh, yeah, I go to all those games,
Speaker 1: but I wasn't at that game. I go, you weren't
Speaker 1: at the game. You go to every game and they're
Speaker 1: playing in l A. And now you know that he
Speaker 1: goes to Arizona to go to the games, right, He's
Speaker 1: not going to go to the game at the Colosseum.
Speaker 1: He goes, oh, yeah, it was yourm Kipper. I go,
Speaker 1: it was young Kipper. What he You're Jewish? He goes, yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: of course I'm Jewish. I don't go to the game
Speaker 1: on your home Kipper. So I go, wait a second,
Speaker 1: is your your your daughter's Jewish? You're okay? So it
Speaker 1: turns out, you know the way the Orthodox Jews goes,
Speaker 1: It goes to the mom. Right, if the mom is Jewish,
Speaker 1: you're Jewish. Very clear, I am very Jewish. I understand this, Yes, okay. Anyways, anyways,
Speaker 1: so it turns out that Mike Bercovici is Jewish. So,
Speaker 1: now what happened here is of all the people in
Speaker 1: the world that my friend meets, he doesn't meet any
Speaker 1: college football grandfather's ever in his whole life, he never
Speaker 1: has met he meets the grandfather of the guy who
Speaker 1: threw throws the home Kipper massacre pass. And the guy
Speaker 1: is Jewish. Now, how many Jewish football players are there, Jeff,
Speaker 1: besides you and maybe Goldberg from the Atlanta Falcons. I
Speaker 1: can't think of too many, not many. I mean the
Speaker 1: moll story here is don't bat, don't put a second
Speaker 1: half under in a pack, twelve games anything, Rika co
Speaker 1: and Eddie Goldman. I mean, the Bears are full of
Speaker 1: the Jews. You know what I didn't believe. I didn't tell.
Speaker 1: I didn't tell the story as good as I did
Speaker 1: when I was on Girls because I've forgotten some of
Speaker 1: the details. But the point, the point is is there
Speaker 1: so few Jews in Division one college football. The guy,
Speaker 1: the guy who throws the yom Kipper massacre pass is Jewish.
Speaker 1: It's it's unfathomable. It's hash and telling you don't bet
Speaker 1: on That's what some people would say. Mike, you wanted
Speaker 1: to say something reminds me of the great episode from
Speaker 1: All in the Family. But Archie Bunker is talking about
Speaker 1: the Jews this and that, and Sally Strutler says, but
Speaker 1: Daddy Jesus was a Jew, and Carol O'Connor said, yeah,
Speaker 1: but only on his mother's side. That that, to me
Speaker 1: is one of the great gambling stories ever. I might
Speaker 1: have I might have bought it for you when I
Speaker 1: said schmore BERKOVICI so I might have botched that for you.
Speaker 1: I didn't tell it as well as as I usually
Speaker 1: do because I haven't told it at a long time.
Speaker 1: But basically the point is for people who don't understand
Speaker 1: the significance of the story, there are no Jews in football.
Speaker 1: I mean there are very very few. There might be
Speaker 1: one on the screen currently, but in general, there are
Speaker 1: no Jews in football. So of all the guys that
Speaker 1: you're ever going to meet their grandfather, first of all,
Speaker 1: you're not gonna meet too many grandfather's a Division one
Speaker 1: quarterbacks in your whole life. And two weeks after that
Speaker 1: they throw the young Kipper massacre story. It's probably even
Speaker 1: less likely. But on top of that, on top of
Speaker 1: all that unlikeliness, the guy's Jewish. It's crazy perform There
Speaker 1: more Jewish owners in the NFL than Jewish players. I had.
Speaker 1: I had a trainer on a team, tell me all
Speaker 1: the time. I used, like shorts, you should be owning
Speaker 1: the team, not playing for it. Baseball. There's still time, Jeff,
Speaker 1: there's still time. There's still time, all right, Chris, aren't
Speaker 1: you You showed up? You showed up for this, you know.
Speaker 1: I listened to podcasts all day long, and I kind
Speaker 1: of went off a little bit and I go, wait
Speaker 1: a minute, I'm in this one. I take some time
Speaker 1: to get used to the rhythm of this podcast. All right,
Speaker 1: let's start. Let's start. I told you, I would have
Speaker 1: told you after you No, I don't know. I loved it.
Speaker 1: I think it was worth it. People will enjoy that. Um,
Speaker 1: all right, let's start with the first game. We won't
Speaker 1: even do We'll just do them game by game because
Speaker 1: people are gonna have thoughts on each We won't do
Speaker 1: the three best bets. The standards. Well it's okay, oy one, okay.
Speaker 1: So basically, they don't want to talk about the fact
Speaker 1: that I crushed them in the playoffs two oh and
Speaker 1: one and both of them went oh and three. And
Speaker 1: let me just say one thing. I want to say
Speaker 1: something sad about the Pittsburgh Steelers. Why aren't the Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: Steelers still playing? Because I love betting against them, even
Speaker 1: though I'm sad they lose. There's such an easy bet
Speaker 1: against the Browns plus six. Baby. Listen between Tomlin going
Speaker 1: for one instead of two down, hunting with the first
Speaker 1: player on the first play of the fourth quarter, fourth
Speaker 1: and short got into punt formation, sent forty five guys
Speaker 1: in motion like he was gonna like he's gonna fool
Speaker 1: somebody I was in the defense. That was Tomlin's candidacy
Speaker 1: for the worst end game coaching moves of the week. Uh,
Speaker 1: Carol had about four gaps in a five minute span,
Speaker 1: challenging the Jared Golf over the line of scrimmage. Um,
Speaker 1: you know there was that. There was the whole his defense,
Speaker 1: you know, jumps off sides, first and goal at the
Speaker 1: tend with just over two minutes left. What was the
Speaker 1: other Carol stuff? Oh, they kicked the field goal fourth
Speaker 1: in one, uh twice a short fourth in two wine. Oh,
Speaker 1: and then there was the other thing that dk Metcalf
Speaker 1: was whining. So what do you do? You you forced
Speaker 1: feed the winding wide receiver pick six the game I did? Okay,
Speaker 1: that was his candidacy. Who were forgetting Rayble fourth and
Speaker 1: take right Rayble fourth and two, which, by the way,
Speaker 1: a pro football perspective went back, there has never been
Speaker 1: another instance in the playoffs in that situation database where
Speaker 1: someone did that with that little time left in the game,
Speaker 1: down four points, fourth and two and plus territory. And
Speaker 1: then uh yeah, Reich with the fourth and goal at
Speaker 1: the four going for it at the end of the
Speaker 1: second quarter, and then and Josh Allen matriculates the ball
Speaker 1: down the field. I mean, what was what was worse?
Speaker 1: Do you ever remember that many on a playoff weekend.
Speaker 1: Here's what I love about Chris. Chris is like, I
Speaker 1: don't watch any of this stuff. I don't have to
Speaker 1: deal with the ups and downs. I just just have
Speaker 1: my pick and then I see the result. I watched
Speaker 1: very little bit. I will give Reich this, I thought
Speaker 1: right called a good game. Though even when they were down,
Speaker 1: he still used the run. He knew he could run
Speaker 1: the ball, and that's what kicked off those drives that
Speaker 1: got them back into the game. Was actually the running
Speaker 1: game that set Philip Rivers into positive field position, and
Speaker 1: they were able they were able to drive them. So
Speaker 1: from a play calling perspective, I thought Rick had a
Speaker 1: good game. But from a game management perspective, the fourth
Speaker 1: and for whatever goal with a non mobile quarterback going
Speaker 1: for two because off on the off sides on the
Speaker 1: extra point and chasing those points was poor. But from
Speaker 1: a play calling perspective, I thought he had a good afternoon.
Speaker 1: You're the You're the refeieve said last week the Bill's
Speaker 1: defense thinks, and I was right about that. But the
Speaker 1: third down, the third down play, by the way, was
Speaker 1: more of a great play by Buffalo than a poor
Speaker 1: play by the Colts. The Buffalo Bills broke a tendency.
Speaker 1: I broke it down to my Twitter at Jeff Schwartz.
Speaker 1: The Colts motioning guy cross thinking was a man coverage,
Speaker 1: which it was, But the Bills didn't rotate their guys.
Speaker 1: They just kind of rotated safeties and there was an
Speaker 1: unblocked guy and Frank Writeson afterwards. We didn't expect them
Speaker 1: to be there. We game plan that he would run.
Speaker 1: So I don't really mind being aggressive because we saw
Speaker 1: what Tomlin wasn't aggressive. Raybow wasn't aggressive, and you lose
Speaker 1: games not being aggressive. I was fine with them going
Speaker 1: for you. I was open Pittman. He missed them on
Speaker 1: fourth down, like Rivers has just gotta be better. Missed
Speaker 1: them because Rivers is not a Hall of Fame quarterback. Jeff,
Speaker 1: you can you can make a good throw. You can
Speaker 1: make a good throw if you're not a Hall of
Speaker 1: Fame quarterback. But I mean, like he still had he
Speaker 1: still had a guy open, he should have. I'd rather
Speaker 1: be aggressive than not, and they made back the two
Speaker 1: point conversion later anyway, So like I think we've seen
Speaker 1: the NFL that when you play almost not to lose
Speaker 1: when you lose, and so I'm fine with coaches being aggressive.
Speaker 1: And the coult should have won that game right, four
Speaker 1: and fifty yards, no no turnovers, first team NFL history
Speaker 1: to lose a game in the playoffs with those stats,
Speaker 1: they should have won the game. That's why I like
Speaker 1: Baltimore this weekend. We'll get to that later, but I
Speaker 1: just think that, like they the Colts, we're okay to
Speaker 1: be aggressive, execute it happens. This is why I like
Speaker 1: having Jeff on the show, because he actually played the
Speaker 1: game and knows exactly what happened. The rest of us
Speaker 1: are just pretending like we know what happened without you know,
Speaker 1: uh the I we had this thing where I was
Speaker 1: on a numbers game and I said Phil Rivers is
Speaker 1: not a Hall of Fame quarterback with Lombardi and already
Speaker 1: went crazy that Phil Rivers is a Hall of Fame quarterback.
Speaker 1: There's only been twenty six Hall of Fame quarterbacks and
Speaker 1: he's not one. And the reason he's not one is
Speaker 1: because he missed that fourth down pass. Now granted, any
Speaker 1: of course you can make the fourth down pass. But
Speaker 1: whenever it's a big, big, big, big big spot, Mr
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers blows it every time. Baby, you could blows
Speaker 1: it it three time. Last thing about the last week,
Speaker 1: as I want to get to these divisional round games,
Speaker 1: but you're the you're the referee expert. First of all,
Speaker 1: we talked about all the bad things. Sean McDermott tried
Speaker 1: to save his team twice and I got this all
Speaker 1: these uh, these owners are meeting with the prospective coaches.
Speaker 1: I would I don't know how I would do this,
Speaker 1: but I would try to ascertain, like who's gonna be
Speaker 1: my best guy? In the moment, Sean McDermott called the
Speaker 1: time out to force the review on that Pittman fumble
Speaker 1: didn't go his way um, and then they gave him
Speaker 1: back the time out because they were like, hey, you
Speaker 1: know what, it was really the replay booth that initiated
Speaker 1: or whatever, right, and then the clock wound, the Colts
Speaker 1: didn't snap it, and then he used that time out.
Speaker 1: He just got back. In effect like a basketball game
Speaker 1: where they have a foul to get of and they
Speaker 1: make you have to restart the play, so from nineteen
Speaker 1: to fourteen seconds that he quickly called the time out
Speaker 1: right before Rivers could snap it. And that was a
Speaker 1: massive five seconds. What happened there with the clock? First
Speaker 1: of all, Brady Allen fuck the clock up twice? Yeah, okay, no, no, no, no, Jeff?
Speaker 1: How can they stop the clock when they ruled it
Speaker 1: on the wait? Wait? Can I ask the question speak?
Speaker 1: How can he stop the clock at thirty nine seconds
Speaker 1: when they ruled them down by contact? What stops the
Speaker 1: clock for twelve seconds at that point? That that that
Speaker 1: era I didn't see, but the one everyone's talking about.
Speaker 1: Pittman fumbled the ball out of bounds that the broadcast
Speaker 1: did not cover it. He fumbled the ball out of bounds,
Speaker 1: so the clock stops, They retrieved the ball, they put
Speaker 1: the ball back, then they run nobody that's correct. Broadcast
Speaker 1: even even mentioned it all right, that it was a football,
Speaker 1: Like I don't think so. The referees, everyone was killing
Speaker 1: him on the internet, Like, I didn't see their problem
Speaker 1: with that because that and and the question about why
Speaker 1: the clock they have a ten second run off to
Speaker 1: review in that instance, right, because the Colts had no
Speaker 1: time outs, so when there's a review with no time out,
Speaker 1: which I don't like this rule. Really, they docked the
Speaker 1: team with ten seconds. That's why the clock, that's why
Speaker 1: we're from thirty. But the McDermott using that at fourteen,
Speaker 1: that was like at five seconds that disappeared because he
Speaker 1: used it right before the staff it was. I thought
Speaker 1: it was awesome if that play goes off and then
Speaker 1: goes off as they played it right. He called it right.
Speaker 1: I mean they tackle him in bounds. I don't know
Speaker 1: if they can get another if they can spike the
Speaker 1: ball in time there. But the whole, the whole thing
Speaker 1: at the end was I just disagreed with why they
Speaker 1: stopped the clock at thirty nine when you ruled it
Speaker 1: down by contact. It shouldn't have stopped there. It should
Speaker 1: have kept running. And then the Colts have to scramble
Speaker 1: and it's an eighteen yard pass. It's gonna take him
Speaker 1: time to get to the line and run another play.
Speaker 1: But they got the actually thirty nine. Brad Allen stopped
Speaker 1: the clock at thirty nine while they decided he was
Speaker 1: down by contact, but the ruling on the field was
Speaker 1: down by contacts. They stopped it and then they moved
Speaker 1: it ten seconds right for the for the runoff, and
Speaker 1: they ran it. Then Pittman fumbled, which that was a
Speaker 1: terrible played fumbled. Then the clock kept running and then
Speaker 1: Philip Er completed that pass, but mcgerman called time out. Right,
Speaker 1: So it's a about sixteen seconds is to cut off
Speaker 1: the one. You can run up and spike the ball
Speaker 1: if you run a normal play, if you game plan
Speaker 1: for like, Okay, we're gonna throw the ball right to
Speaker 1: the middle of the field and we're gonna immediately fall
Speaker 1: down to clarselves down, you keep doing in like fourteen seconds,
Speaker 1: that's about the time you can get you can get
Speaker 1: a spike off. That's like kind of about where it's at. All. Right, here, Jeff,
Speaker 1: here where your seven picks from last week. We have
Speaker 1: them on the screen. We went four and three on them,
Speaker 1: and as we were talking about yesterday on the numbers
Speaker 1: game on Visa kind of got unlucky on on one
Speaker 1: of the three, which was not unlucky, but you know,
Speaker 1: the baker Mayfield one took on a life of its
Speaker 1: own because that game was how it was. But here
Speaker 1: are all the correct ones. Indianapolis plus six and a
Speaker 1: half Bears team total under which was never a problem.
Speaker 1: Eighteen and a half, Lamar over sixty eight and a
Speaker 1: half rushing no problem. Baltimore minus three came home. Uh
Speaker 1: and the only ones that didn't get there under Ramseeahawks
Speaker 1: forty two and a half under Tampa Washington first half
Speaker 1: twenty two and a half because you got Taylor heinekeed
Speaker 1: and then the Baker Mayfield under passing right, which again
Speaker 1: I don't know how much you can read into that game,
Speaker 1: but that was a nice job on those Let's do games, Yeah,
Speaker 1: let's do game by game. Number one in terms of
Speaker 1: chronological order, the Rams are at the Packers. This is
Speaker 1: the first of the two games on Saturday, Packers number
Speaker 1: one seed, the Rams coming off their win against Seattle.
Speaker 1: This has gone down through the seven to the Packers
Speaker 1: minus six and a half. And I couldn't win, man.
Speaker 1: When the Rams are winning that game, all I kept
Speaker 1: saying to myself was New Orleans get it done tomorrow.
Speaker 1: I want to see Jared goffin cold weather. Now, it's
Speaker 1: only supposed to be twenty eight degrees not you know,
Speaker 1: mild dish for Green Bay, Wisconsin, but it's six and
Speaker 1: a half. Jeff will start with you were you surprised
Speaker 1: this went down through the seven and how do you
Speaker 1: feel about this? You know, because a lot of people
Speaker 1: just saw the Rams play, right, so they're gonna bet
Speaker 1: on the Rams just being the Seahawks and Jared Gofflin
Speaker 1: he was Night of nineteen. He wasn't that good, but
Speaker 1: he played well enough for them to win the game.
Speaker 1: They stacked Russell Wilson, then they hit him nineteen times,
Speaker 1: but they sacked him five times. But he's saying about
Speaker 1: cold weather, so he's only played two games under thirty
Speaker 1: five degrees. He completes forty seven sevens passes passer rating
Speaker 1: even if you go a little bit warmer weather from
Speaker 1: thirty degrees, completing passes like, he's not good in cold
Speaker 1: weather and he might not even play this weekend. They're
Speaker 1: they're they're talking about Walford playing still, Like I don't
Speaker 1: I don't get I don't get the Rams offense. I
Speaker 1: like the Packers here for many reasons, but mostly because
Speaker 1: I think the Rams offense is not going to score
Speaker 1: points in this game. Like, I know people crushed the
Speaker 1: Green Bay defense, but they've got better watching look at
Speaker 1: the last five weeks this season, they've got a lot better.
Speaker 1: They can stop the run. If you make Golf throw
Speaker 1: the ball, they're not gonna win. They're not gonna win
Speaker 1: the game with Golf thrown the football. It's amazing what
Speaker 1: we're even talking about. A guy with a nine figure
Speaker 1: contract and then a guy who started one game here.
Speaker 1: It's like, we don't know who who they're going with here,
Speaker 1: Chris zinook Las Vegas, Chris, what you got? I'm I
Speaker 1: was very surprised that the line came down. I was
Speaker 1: I thought it was kind of a pump fake, uh,
Speaker 1: that everybody went down to six and a half and
Speaker 1: they were gonna just pound it back up. I still
Speaker 1: think it's gonna go back up. But it's really hard
Speaker 1: to stomach the rams. Uh, Like Jeff said, how are
Speaker 1: the hell are they gonna score any points? The way
Speaker 1: Golf throws the ball with his hand, it's sort of
Speaker 1: like a jump ball. He feels like he's just lofting
Speaker 1: the ball and and and it has like a club
Speaker 1: hand or something. So, but uh, my metrics on this
Speaker 1: uh uh seemed to actually be in line with a
Speaker 1: lot of other people. Uh, they we're getting the extra value. Um,
Speaker 1: I think this line should be around three and a half. UM.
Speaker 1: But the Rams are are so solid on defense. They
Speaker 1: they cover everything. They're gonna really put the pressure on Rogers. Uh. Obviously,
Speaker 1: Uh the be able to cover Adams and they're gonna
Speaker 1: be able to run some defensive schemes that should be
Speaker 1: able to confuse. Uh, They're going to put pressure on Rogers.
Speaker 1: And and uh they had five sacks last week against
Speaker 1: more mobile Wilson, So uh that's a hell of a
Speaker 1: lot of pressure. And a lot of people don't realize
Speaker 1: Green Bay played a very weak schedule. I think it
Speaker 1: was the thirty first rank schedule in the NFL. So, uh,
Speaker 1: you know when you're playing Minnesota, Chicago and Detroit twice
Speaker 1: and uh, it's just like last year. Again. They they
Speaker 1: had a really nice trip. We we don't know how
Speaker 1: good this team really is, but but my metrics say,
Speaker 1: uh the Rams should cover this. Um My brain says,
Speaker 1: how the hell are they going to score? I mean, uh,
Speaker 1: they gotta win three nothing, you know, lose three nothing
Speaker 1: to cover or something. Um. But what usually wins in
Speaker 1: your brain versus metrics competition, Well, I find that the
Speaker 1: more painful wage or usually the the better it is.
Speaker 1: I mean I I get very scared when I like
Speaker 1: aside a lot. So the harder it is to place
Speaker 1: the wage, I think, the better off um I am
Speaker 1: in the result. So Ram supposed the point you made
Speaker 1: that bad. I I did take the plus seven. Okay, yeah,
Speaker 1: I took the green Bay. I took green Bay minus
Speaker 1: six and a half. And I have green Bay and
Speaker 1: Teaser legs because I have them with Baltimore, which we'll
Speaker 1: get to on its own, and the Teaser and I
Speaker 1: also have them going back to Alabama. Never teach college football,
Speaker 1: but in this case I did with Bama, so that
Speaker 1: one's already in. But I hate being on the opposite
Speaker 1: side of you on the A T S. Mikey. The
Speaker 1: only I think break the Rams Catchers that they get
Speaker 1: the early game and it's gonna be twenty eight degrees
Speaker 1: at three thirty in green Bay instead of if the
Speaker 1: kickoff was at seven thirty, and you might be the
Speaker 1: game dropping down, you know, closer to twenty degrees. But
Speaker 1: if I play the game, I'm probably just gonna tease
Speaker 1: green Bay down because I just don't unders stand how
Speaker 1: glof is going to be able to move the ball
Speaker 1: unless they're really effective running the ball on group against
Speaker 1: Green Bay, and I don't see that happening. Rogers has
Speaker 1: been so good effort, just just so good, and he's
Speaker 1: so in control of the game and pace of the game,
Speaker 1: and that the line of scrimmage. It's just it's hard
Speaker 1: for me to envision a scenario where the Rams win
Speaker 1: this game. And I don't, and I would see to
Speaker 1: Jeff on this, but I was talking to Jeff about
Speaker 1: this on a Numbers game yesterday. Jalen Ramsey, great, you
Speaker 1: can look at the stats. He checks the the opposing
Speaker 1: guide receiver number one, he's held them all less than
Speaker 1: a hundred yards. But the Rogers DeVante telepathic connection this
Speaker 1: year is just phenomenal. And I don't see Jalen Ramsey
Speaker 1: being able to hold that down, do you, Jeff Um,
Speaker 1: I think he can if if they leave Davanta Adams
Speaker 1: kind of in one place where they move them around.
Speaker 1: Here's one one area I found it's kind of interesting
Speaker 1: in play action pass. So the Rams allow the most
Speaker 1: separation of any defense against play action passed four and
Speaker 1: a half yards almost separation on play action pass. And
Speaker 1: we know Rogers this year, it's almost up to of
Speaker 1: his attempts are plaques passers. That's really one specific area
Speaker 1: where Davante Adams might have a little bit of a
Speaker 1: go against this Rams defense is getting hit on those
Speaker 1: play action passes. You run the ball a couple of times,
Speaker 1: you hit that play action pass, and maybe Davanta Adams
Speaker 1: able to get off from the slot, especially because Ramsey
Speaker 1: doesn't always travel on the slot. I think snaps during
Speaker 1: the slot. But I'm curious to see how the Packers
Speaker 1: move around Adams to find ways to not have him
Speaker 1: on Ramsey. One last thing too, Robert Tanyan, their tight
Speaker 1: end has eleven touchdowns on fifty nine targets. All right,
Speaker 1: if you can play him for a touchdown this weekend,
Speaker 1: it's a pretty interesting bet because the Rams only allows seven.
Speaker 1: They've only allowed seven touchdowns all year to wide receivers,
Speaker 1: that's it. So the tight end might be a spot
Speaker 1: here where you can get some value on a big
Speaker 1: plus number to get a touchdown this game. I'm writing
Speaker 1: touchdown levin touchdowns targets? Was that the number? Jeff Yeah?
Speaker 1: This season? Yes? And now from his mom's work atk
Speaker 1: in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Todd wishnev everybody, Um, First of all,
Speaker 1: you can check out my Twitter at at t wishnev and, um,
Speaker 1: if you like college basketball, you might really like it.
Speaker 1: I'm I'm currently two hundred and hundred and fifty two
Speaker 1: for a cool six in college basketball this year on
Speaker 1: my in game plays, So you might really like that.
Speaker 1: Two and two is quite a few units up. Why
Speaker 1: are you giggling? Hope Speterson games over five hundred? Yeah,
Speaker 1: but there's a difference between Mett. Yeah, and I'm also
Speaker 1: I'm also giving the real line. That's another difference. Um
Speaker 1: so um. Anyways, at WISH, you might like it. Sometimes
Speaker 1: we even sing um made up songs like Hell to
Speaker 1: the Heineke. That was one of our songs last week,
Speaker 1: Hell Victory, Hell to Taylor Heineke. The over Cash is
Speaker 1: for Me. That was a fantastic song from last week
Speaker 1: when Heineck put us over on the in game over
Speaker 1: in the Washington game. By the way, did that game
Speaker 1: not look like the other team was not really trying somewhat?
Speaker 1: I mean, Jeff, maybe you can tell us is there
Speaker 1: shenanigans going on in football? It does somebody want the
Speaker 1: games closer for the networks? I mean, it's just what
Speaker 1: is going on in pro football. Sometimes none of that
Speaker 1: is happening in pro football, Like, like, what about let
Speaker 1: me ask you this, Jeff. If a game is like
Speaker 1: a blowout, does it seem like the refs sometimes are
Speaker 1: trying to keep it a little closer or would you
Speaker 1: think that's just total ball da dash, that's total bullshit.
Speaker 1: There's no No one's trying to keep a game close.
Speaker 1: They didn't get paid to keep a game close, like
Speaker 1: they just call what they say. I think the referee sometimes,
Speaker 1: you know, I think trying to find penalties too often.
Speaker 1: But um, no, no one's doing anything of that sort.
Speaker 1: That's why I wanted to ask you because you know,
Speaker 1: a lot of times you watch these games and they're
Speaker 1: just so tight and it seems like, you know, I
Speaker 1: don't know anyways, I'm reason why the reason why there
Speaker 1: are a lot of one score games because it's hard
Speaker 1: to win in the NFL, and they're like everyone's a
Speaker 1: pro and everyone's out, everyone's playing hard and everyone's trying
Speaker 1: to make their money, and you don't want to be
Speaker 1: blown out, especially on national television. It's embarrassing to get
Speaker 1: blown out. Everyone talks about you. And here's the thing
Speaker 1: about it is is playing football in the NFL. It's tough, right,
Speaker 1: Like it's it's mentally draining, physically draining, and everyone the
Speaker 1: facility is there for one purpose, to win, and when
Speaker 1: you don't win, everyone's depressed. Everybody, the whole facility, the
Speaker 1: marketing people, that advertising people, because their job is worse
Speaker 1: if you don't win either. So the only thing that
Speaker 1: makes it fun is winning. So everyone's out here trying
Speaker 1: to win football games on Sunday. Now, you might take
Speaker 1: Monday through Saturday with your personnel moves, that's from above
Speaker 1: my pay grade obviously, but on Sunday, everyone's playing to
Speaker 1: win because it doesn't cost in the fourth quarter. Right.
Speaker 1: This is why I always say when people go, oh,
Speaker 1: this team doesn't need the game, this team is not
Speaker 1: trying for this, And I'm like, what are you talking about.
Speaker 1: All these guys and professionals and want to make their money,
Speaker 1: they're all trying. And I'm glad you said that. And
Speaker 1: that's why I brought it up because you you say
Speaker 1: that on Twitter and everyone goes, oh, yeah, for sure,
Speaker 1: that's true, and I'm like, I'm not saying it's true.
Speaker 1: I'm saying I don't know what's going on, but I
Speaker 1: would love to ask a real NFL player, because to me,
Speaker 1: it seems like everyone's trying for their money. There, I'm
Speaker 1: gonna go off topic, you want to, I just want
Speaker 1: to off shoot to that. So I lost the survivor
Speaker 1: because the Rams lost out right to the Jets. What
Speaker 1: what would you attribute that to, Jeff? I would like
Speaker 1: an autopsy on that game, if you would. I think.
Speaker 1: I mean again, like the Jets are playing hard each Sunday,
Speaker 1: they might lose the game because of poor you know
Speaker 1: of Greg, Greg Williams, you know, calling zero coverage and
Speaker 1: it's a stupid situation, but all those guys want to win,
Speaker 1: Like you know, Sam Donald doesn't care whether or not
Speaker 1: they draft justin fields next season, or he's worried about
Speaker 1: him and he actually winning football games when saved him
Speaker 1: from having to know from his job being lost next year.
Speaker 1: Players don't I was going back to their left tackle.
Speaker 1: He doesn't keece of work. He doesn't care about four
Speaker 1: years from now. He's worried about, worried about now what
Speaker 1: do you now? I was more about the Ram side,
Speaker 1: like how does Aaron Donald not make a mark in
Speaker 1: that game? Though I think there's book. I think throughout
Speaker 1: the weeks, you just don't get up for every game,
Speaker 1: Like it's kind of just human nature. I think. I
Speaker 1: think even we can look back to this weekend, the
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh Steelers defensive line got dominated by the Browns right
Speaker 1: and even had Michael Dunn playing left guard right Jewish
Speaker 1: kid by the way, jewis kid playing left guard for
Speaker 1: the Browns. He played really well. And you look at like,
Speaker 1: how can the Steelers defensive line not play well? And
Speaker 1: my whole theory about that was all weeks they were
Speaker 1: told the fancy is not gonna be there, left guard
Speaker 1: is not gonna be there, the officivee coach is not
Speaker 1: gonna be there, and they just didn't kind of just
Speaker 1: aren't is up for the game. I think the rams
Speaker 1: that situation just weren't ready to play that weekend. Yeah,
Speaker 1: but one other thing I wanted to ask you, because
Speaker 1: we don't get to talk to too many x NFL players. Um,
Speaker 1: you know, if you watch these NFL games, you love
Speaker 1: watching the talking heads go, well, the right tackles out
Speaker 1: this week and that's a disaster, and the defensive back
Speaker 1: is out and that's a disaster. But they never talk
Speaker 1: about the fact the guy has a backup Now if
Speaker 1: the backup is also stinky stinks, then okay, maybe it's something,
Speaker 1: but not every backup stinks. Some backups are almost as
Speaker 1: good as the starter, right. It depends the position, Like
Speaker 1: there's not many like backup offensive alignment, and they were
Speaker 1: hanging out if they were that good to be playing
Speaker 1: somewhere like that's that's part of a two, right is
Speaker 1: there's typically if you're a backup, your backup for a reason.
Speaker 1: You're a starter for a reason. And so are are
Speaker 1: certain positions where you can get by with a backup.
Speaker 1: You know, like in a wide receiver if you're missing
Speaker 1: one guy, you have multiple other guys. But you know,
Speaker 1: offensive line for example, if you're missing one, sometimes it's
Speaker 1: tough to play because you're a unit. Have to play
Speaker 1: as a unit, right, So I I think there are
Speaker 1: reasons why injuries do play a role in how you
Speaker 1: view games on the weekends. Jeff, can I ask you
Speaker 1: an off topic question? Yeah, what is the effect of
Speaker 1: moving the umpire two behind the offensive line been on
Speaker 1: the NFL game? Um? Well, you FL? I mean this
Speaker 1: year has just said they're not gonna call holding, right,
Speaker 1: I mean they can kind of pick and choose how
Speaker 1: they're gonna do it. Um. You know what it has
Speaker 1: affected a little bit is there's you know, the defensive
Speaker 1: holding doesn't get called on the defensive line. They hold
Speaker 1: the ship of us sometimes, um, and just makes it
Speaker 1: easier for them to call holding because they're right there.
Speaker 1: They see our hands and see where we're at. You know,
Speaker 1: when the umpires in the middle, he kind of just
Speaker 1: has the inside three guys. You can get distracted by
Speaker 1: your bodies flying around the place. But look, the NFL
Speaker 1: has made a concerned effort this year not called holding.
Speaker 1: It's very simple. I mean you can tell you you
Speaker 1: can see by the numbers that holdings are down and
Speaker 1: maybe that's why scoring is up sometimes. Um. But I
Speaker 1: don't like that. I don't like that you could just say, hey,
Speaker 1: don't call this. My whole theory with with officiating is simple.
Speaker 1: If you see it, call it, like, don't go out
Speaker 1: there looking to call a penalty there. I feel like
Speaker 1: sometimes they look to call op I too much, like, oh,
Speaker 1: that's a pick play. We're calling that just cold as
Speaker 1: you see it if it's a pickpoint. If it is,
Speaker 1: if it's not, they don't call it that sneat pick
Speaker 1: play with something else this past weekend. Uh, Todd, did
Speaker 1: you give your pick? No, I'd like to give my pick.
Speaker 1: I'd like to take I take the under. We're just
Speaker 1: talking about the stage. I think this is an under game. Obviously,
Speaker 1: you guys have talked about why the Rams stink um.
Speaker 1: The Rams are gonna have a real tough time scoring,
Speaker 1: and obviously defensively they could probably hang in. Plus, you know,
Speaker 1: the Packers have had a lot of games where they
Speaker 1: go on these long drives and hold the ball. I
Speaker 1: can remember a number of games where the Packers are
Speaker 1: on like an eight minute drive to start the game.
Speaker 1: The Atlanta game comes to mind early in the season. Um,
Speaker 1: So to me, this is gonna have to be. The
Speaker 1: Rams are gonna have to also try to run the
Speaker 1: ball and keep the score low. They know they've got
Speaker 1: to keep it low. They're not gonna stay with the Packers.
Speaker 1: So I like the under, and you know, probably the
Speaker 1: team total. Um. Here in Pennsylvania you have team total
Speaker 1: in games, so the options are limitless here. But if
Speaker 1: I had to bet it before the game, I'd probably
Speaker 1: take the under nineteen and a half with the team
Speaker 1: total with the Rams because I don't see how they're
Speaker 1: gonna score the ball obviously, like everybody else has said,
Speaker 1: it's not that you know, it's not rocket science Jared Goff.
Speaker 1: You know everyone's giving the statistics of what's Jared Goff?
Speaker 1: And in degrees? What's he in for the six degrees?
Speaker 1: What's he in regular degrees? He's not good in regular degrees.
Speaker 1: I don't care what you he stinks in regular degree.
Speaker 1: Game two on Saturday, Uh, we go to the a
Speaker 1: f C. Baltimore at Buffalo. This has been an interesting
Speaker 1: line because a lot of Baltimore money early on in
Speaker 1: this dip to all the way to too even saw
Speaker 1: some one and a halfs here in favor of the Bills,
Speaker 1: and then it went the other way. Now it's Buffalo
Speaker 1: minus two and a half extra juice, so we may
Speaker 1: see three yet again between the Bills, who beat the
Speaker 1: Colts this past week by a field goal and Baltimore
Speaker 1: vanquished the Tennessee Titans. I'm telling you man that Baltimore
Speaker 1: game that when they were down ten to nothing and
Speaker 1: it was third and long for Lamar Jackson. If I
Speaker 1: can't prove this, but if he doesn't throw the seventeen
Speaker 1: yard played Andrews where he gets flushed out of the pocket.
Speaker 1: Who knows how that game goes from that point for
Speaker 1: we'll never know. Um, Jeff, we start with you. What
Speaker 1: do you like here? So I like the Ravens just
Speaker 1: money line, I'll take I'll be a tack to two
Speaker 1: and a half. But my favorite playing this game is
Speaker 1: is Lamar Jackson over rushing. I think it's like sixty
Speaker 1: and a half and guys, the Bills rushed defense. This
Speaker 1: is one I think that Ravens will win this game.
Speaker 1: There twenty three according to EPA or yards per tempt
Speaker 1: and the ranked thirty one by Pro Football Focus. If
Speaker 1: just watched the games they play, they played four close
Speaker 1: games in the last three months, the Chiefs, the Cardinals
Speaker 1: which they lost, the Patriots who they beat by three.
Speaker 1: Remember Camp was driving down to win that game and
Speaker 1: they fumbled. And last weekend. What's the common theme. The
Speaker 1: opponent rushes the ball very well, hundred eighty yards, two yards,
Speaker 1: two or twenty five yards. What do the Ravens do.
Speaker 1: They rushed the ball extremely well. The Bills don't stop
Speaker 1: the run. It's it's not what they do. And they
Speaker 1: have a Ravens team who feeling themselves after finally winning
Speaker 1: a playoff game. I think they go into Buffalo and
Speaker 1: rush for over three hundred yards. Like I just think
Speaker 1: they dominate on the ground. And the one concern I
Speaker 1: have though, is that Josh Allen is really good against pressure,
Speaker 1: like really good, and the Baltimore defense brings a ton
Speaker 1: of pressure number in the NFL and blitz right, But
Speaker 1: we saw the end of the Colts game, Josh Allen
Speaker 1: still has that Yolo in him where he still just
Speaker 1: makes those stupid ass plays where he fumbled the ball
Speaker 1: at the end of the game. I'm telling you, man,
Speaker 1: you could sense it coming. You could see it coming
Speaker 1: and end of that game. If this game is close
Speaker 1: at the end, I think that they will force him
Speaker 1: into one of those stupid players again. But my favorite
Speaker 1: play of the weekend is Lamar Jackson over at sixty yards.
Speaker 1: I think like that to me feels like it's way, way,
Speaker 1: way too low. He averages over eleven yards when he
Speaker 1: keeps the ball on his own read That's incredible. That
Speaker 1: feels way too low for me. That's my favorite play
Speaker 1: in this game. But I'll take Baltimore anyways. You know
Speaker 1: what I love about the Lamar Jackson prop over rushing
Speaker 1: is I don't see a game script or game flow
Speaker 1: where that doesn't happen, whether they're up or down. I
Speaker 1: think that happens because you can make a case for
Speaker 1: four and a half though it's up to seventy four
Speaker 1: and a half. That well, I I got it like
Speaker 1: Draftings at seventy four and a half over Wow, I
Speaker 1: gotta like six. I gotta like sixty y earlier this
Speaker 1: week on my one of my I think on my
Speaker 1: Fox stuff. But that's crazy. Yeah, So I mean seventy
Speaker 1: four half is much different than sixty obviously, um wow, yeah,
Speaker 1: that's still that's a lot. But I think he does.
Speaker 1: Maybe Fandel has something different. That's what DraftKings has, Vandel has.
Speaker 1: Let's see if they have it up Lamar Jackson rushing
Speaker 1: seventy I mean Fox Fox Bet has it at sixty
Speaker 1: two and a half. I was last night. Wow, someone
Speaker 1: looks it was yesterday, Jeff. Someone listened to us on
Speaker 1: a numbers if they did someone, So I think even
Speaker 1: at seventy five, I don't know. I haven't I didn't
Speaker 1: do research on now. I think that's still not that babby.
Speaker 1: He's their offense, like if they if they move the ball,
Speaker 1: it's because of Lamar Jackson. All right, Chris, don't go
Speaker 1: appo here oppo, I have to go appo. What's really
Speaker 1: interesting about this is last week I bet Baltimore or
Speaker 1: indian or Indianapolis and Baltimore. This week, I'm switching. I
Speaker 1: did her You like Buffalo? I like Buffalo. I uh
Speaker 1: they I like Baltimore a lot. I think they're a
Speaker 1: great team. You know, they went through their slump. They
Speaker 1: had a ton of injuries during the middle of the season.
Speaker 1: They tried the pocket passer Jackson experiment for a bunch
Speaker 1: of games, and uh, that didn't work. So uh, you know,
Speaker 1: we we saw it all coming weeks and weeks ahead
Speaker 1: of time because they had a soft scheduled and and
Speaker 1: and everybody knew it. So they've been beating up on
Speaker 1: teams like Cincinnati, the Giants, the Jaguars, Dallas. Uh. They
Speaker 1: the miracle win against Cleveland, which was very stressful since
Speaker 1: I wasn't watching. I was watching on Twitter, and I
Speaker 1: couldn't tell exactly what was going on, so through me
Speaker 1: not so it was a big wager for me too,
Speaker 1: So it was stressful. Uh. And then last week, and
Speaker 1: how do you only scored twenty points against Tennessee. I
Speaker 1: mean suspect defense. Yeah, I mean it's it's every Tennessee.
Speaker 1: Everybody scored more than twenty points except New England, who
Speaker 1: has no offense. And uh, um, I forget who the
Speaker 1: other team was, but only another horrible offensive team. So
Speaker 1: I think that that's kind of uh, you know, telling
Speaker 1: that they couldn't put points up on the board against Tennessee.
Speaker 1: And my trailing six weeks, I'd like to see how
Speaker 1: teams are doing over the previous six weeks, and Baltimore
Speaker 1: has improved slightly, but his only game three quarters of
Speaker 1: a point of value in my in my metrics. And
Speaker 1: Buffalo quietly, they've gained almost seven points of value over
Speaker 1: the last six weeks. And uh, you know, they've only
Speaker 1: lost that one Hail Murray game. Uh in their last
Speaker 1: eleven games, their ten and one. Uh, they're my highest
Speaker 1: rated a FC team. Uh. Their number one in offense,
Speaker 1: number ten in defense, and number ten and defense is
Speaker 1: pretty good because they were wallowing in the mid twenties.
Speaker 1: I couldn't believe how bad their defense was, you know,
Speaker 1: at the half point of the season. So um, I
Speaker 1: like both teams, but I I see the value. I
Speaker 1: took Buffalo on the money line should land on three.
Speaker 1: So I hope we both went because I got Baltimore
Speaker 1: in the teaser, like we can both win this. It's
Speaker 1: like e text that he goes, well, one person's listening
Speaker 1: to a numbers game. All He's like, well, one person
Speaker 1: picked Buffalo, for God's sakes, because Baltimore became very trendy
Speaker 1: this week. Um. By the way, By the way, Denver
Speaker 1: was the other team that did not score against Tennessee
Speaker 1: opening game. They only scored I think like sixteen or
Speaker 1: fourteen somewhere in there the field gold That's rights game, Mikey.
Speaker 1: I liked the game over. I think Baltimore is able
Speaker 1: to run the ball here, and I think Josh Allen
Speaker 1: makes some big plays against the blitz against Don Martindale's
Speaker 1: blitz is I think he'll be able to, you know,
Speaker 1: if they can pick up the blitz and he's gonna
Speaker 1: have some opportunities to big plays. And I think this
Speaker 1: will be a very competitive game. But I think the
Speaker 1: game plays into the upper twenties or thirties. I think
Speaker 1: both teams offenses will will be flattered by the defensive
Speaker 1: matchup that they have, so it's tough to pick this game.
Speaker 1: I would if I tease, I tease Baltimore up, I don't.
Speaker 1: I don't think this game lands more than a touchdown
Speaker 1: either way. But the overs might play is where that
Speaker 1: is right now? Todd, you said you like Buffalo. Yeah
Speaker 1: this Uh, Chris said exactly what I was gonna say,
Speaker 1: which is Tennessee defense is not even a defense. And me,
Speaker 1: you and Mike could play better defense than Tennessee against
Speaker 1: most NFL teams and they could only get twenty points
Speaker 1: against Tennessee. That's not good. And here's the thing you
Speaker 1: heard me say last week. I didn't like the Bills
Speaker 1: defense because when they played anybody good, they gave up
Speaker 1: points just like they did against the Colts, which is
Speaker 1: what we thought was gonna happen. But the Tennessee is
Speaker 1: not a good defensive team and Baltimore can't score on them.
Speaker 1: So if Baltimore can't score on Tennessee's defense, what are
Speaker 1: they gonna do against the Bills defe which is maybe
Speaker 1: a little bit better than Tennessee's. So I don't see
Speaker 1: Baltimore scoring big here. And the Bill's offense is the
Speaker 1: elite offense behind Kansas City in a FC. So while
Speaker 1: the Ravens are good on defense, I don't see them
Speaker 1: stopping the Bills cold. I mean, you only have to
Speaker 1: win the game by two and a half points. Even
Speaker 1: if it's a tight game, you know, if it comes
Speaker 1: comes down to the end, you want Lamar Jackson driving
Speaker 1: down for you having to throw the ball, or you
Speaker 1: want Josh Allen having to throw the ball to me.
Speaker 1: I want Josh Allen in a late game situation. I
Speaker 1: do not want Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson, that's all he
Speaker 1: can do is run. He still can't throw the football,
Speaker 1: So give me the Bills. I just want to bring
Speaker 1: up what I brought up last week on the show,
Speaker 1: and I think on a numbers game, also, the Pro
Speaker 1: Football focused that Josh Allen the most, the most turnover
Speaker 1: worthy plays, the guy who's been the most fortunate on
Speaker 1: those that it hasn't gone against him. So it's just
Speaker 1: they're just there's an accident waiting to happen out there
Speaker 1: at some point. I don't know when, but we'll see
Speaker 1: if it's this week or not. What other way, one
Speaker 1: other thing didn't the vault More Ravens defense give up
Speaker 1: forty two points in a very big Monday night football
Speaker 1: game to another team like Buffalo that can move the ball.
Speaker 1: Cleveland scored forty two on this defense. You don't think
Speaker 1: the Bills can move the ball? Bill's baby Bill? Okay, Well,
Speaker 1: as long as you said it like that. Uh. Sunday,
Speaker 1: Kansas City starts things off the Chiefs uh ten point
Speaker 1: favorites against the Brownies. That's a three oh five. Remember
Speaker 1: these are staggered a little earlier on Sunday Saturday. It's
Speaker 1: four thirty five Eastern than eight fifteen Eastern into the night. Sunday,
Speaker 1: it starts at three oh five Eastern with Kansas City
Speaker 1: ten point favorites hosting the Cleveland Browns. Total fifty seven.
Speaker 1: Mr Schwartz, I'm not touching the ten. I have no
Speaker 1: I'm a Chiefs fan, so I try to stay away
Speaker 1: from like taking their game just because I'm kind of
Speaker 1: irrational times with them. UM and they haven't covered in
Speaker 1: what like nine weeks. I said, come crazy number like that? UM,
Speaker 1: I do like two things here. So their team total,
Speaker 1: what we talked about yesterday on the show is thirty three.
Speaker 1: Is that what it's at right now? Okay, So they've
Speaker 1: they've played six games with Andy Reni and Pathomes. After
Speaker 1: by they scored forty five and thirty five, and those
Speaker 1: thirty one games were against the Niners and the Colts.
Speaker 1: Way back in. The Colts out a good defense that year.
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna score a ton of points in
Speaker 1: this game. Pat Mahomes talked about how him and Travis
Speaker 1: Kelsey spent the weekend going over early the week the
Speaker 1: previous week, going over every defensive could possibly face in
Speaker 1: the next round, and writing out game plans for them
Speaker 1: before they even got to this weekend. Their offense has
Speaker 1: not played well recently, but the Browns defense is pass
Speaker 1: down passes to the tight end um. I actually like
Speaker 1: Travis Kelsey over I got eighty and a half. I
Speaker 1: don't know what what what you guys have. He's been
Speaker 1: really good after By two, averaging about niney yards a game.
Speaker 1: I think Chiefs just scored ton of points. But my worry,
Speaker 1: of course, is that the brown scored ton of points
Speaker 1: as well. I think the Chiefs go off on offense
Speaker 1: like they've been waiting for the all you have. Talk
Speaker 1: to those guys there, They're like, we're waiting for the
Speaker 1: playoffs to be great, which worries me. A little bit.
Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie about that, but I think that
Speaker 1: they're gonna score just all games, just continually score. I
Speaker 1: don't think can cover though the tense. I'm gon stay
Speaker 1: away from that. We should be listening to Jeff, particularly
Speaker 1: keenly when he's talking about the Chiefs with familial ties there.
Speaker 1: That's interesting. Uh, Las Vegas, Chris sir getting back before
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Chris goes. Travis Kelsey is eighty six and
Speaker 1: a half on the receiving yards, Thank you, thank you.
Speaker 1: I actually getting back to Todd's point of um with
Speaker 1: Kansas City having the number one offense, I actually had
Speaker 1: them number two behind Buffalo, So I think Buffalo is
Speaker 1: that strong. But I've ridiculed and made fun of the
Speaker 1: Browns the entire season, and they were highly ranked in
Speaker 1: some of the glamour categories early on, and we're getting
Speaker 1: a lot of attention, but I look at a lot
Speaker 1: of the other little things that are you know, are
Speaker 1: not glamour stats, and and uh, you know, they may
Speaker 1: have finished eleven and five, but they had the second
Speaker 1: worsting against the spread record, So they made me money
Speaker 1: all year long. Yeah, And uh, I got off of
Speaker 1: them at the perfect time and uh, um to give
Speaker 1: them credit that they they've actually uh on the metrics,
Speaker 1: done a very good job of improving throughout the course
Speaker 1: of the season. UH. And Mayfield, you know, he's I'm
Speaker 1: not sure he's getting any of the credit just because
Speaker 1: his reputation of I don't think people want to give
Speaker 1: him credit. But he's got nine out of ten games
Speaker 1: without a turnover. So UH, that's very that's very important.
Speaker 1: But you know, the the only thing that I can
Speaker 1: look at in this game is is the the total,
Speaker 1: which is the over. Because the point spread, anything can happen. Now,
Speaker 1: there's just no way you can touch it. It doesn't
Speaker 1: matter where you put the number. You can put it
Speaker 1: at seven, you can put it at thirteen. I don't
Speaker 1: want anything to do with the game. So but the
Speaker 1: did the over. Uh. Cleveland's offensive stats would be much
Speaker 1: better if they hadn't played the weather games. They had
Speaker 1: a handful of cluster games that don't show up in
Speaker 1: the metrics that you have to factor in. UM. And
Speaker 1: it also improved their defensive stats. So UM, they're much
Speaker 1: worse than they're showing on defense. UH and UH eleven
Speaker 1: and five and they were outscored. How do. How do
Speaker 1: you get outscored for the entire season? The Atlanta The
Speaker 1: Atlanta Falcons went into week seventeen five and ten and
Speaker 1: head out had outscored their opponents so high. Yeah, so
Speaker 1: it just goes to show you, you know, anything can
Speaker 1: go on, you know, with these Browns games, and they
Speaker 1: put up forty points two games in a row, they're
Speaker 1: they're firing on offense. Um, and Kansas City is going
Speaker 1: to certainly be able to have their way with their defense.
Speaker 1: So the open is the only look I can do.
Speaker 1: Seven is what it is. The Pythagorean theorem record should
Speaker 1: have been eight and eight based on their point differential.
Speaker 1: For those who enjoy baseball metrics converted to football, Mike Palm,
Speaker 1: no play, no play, Todd wish Neev By the way, Um, Jeff,
Speaker 1: great job with the Lamar because I checked Fox. Bet
Speaker 1: there it's seventy five too. So when you're getting better
Speaker 1: than the line, you did a fantastic job with that one.
Speaker 1: You don't see that crazy. I might need to tell
Speaker 1: my producer for a show that because we got to
Speaker 1: talk about this in like an hour and it's still
Speaker 1: at sixty two. So maybe not on Fox. It's not okay, good,
Speaker 1: it's seventy five on Fox Bet now yeah, we gotta yeah, well,
Speaker 1: I gotta make that change. Good, Thank you for telling me. Anyways, Um,
Speaker 1: I like the I actually like an hour. I like
Speaker 1: the under. In the Kansas City under fifty seven under
Speaker 1: fifty seven and a half, they're steaming it like crazy
Speaker 1: to the over. Um to me, I think Stefanski is
Speaker 1: not a dumbbell, and I think Stefanski knows that he
Speaker 1: better give a steady, steady, steady diet of those hammering
Speaker 1: running backs to run to slow this game down, because
Speaker 1: the only chance you have in hell of being the
Speaker 1: Chiefs is a slowdown game. If you want to start,
Speaker 1: you know, scoring with them, forget about it. So I
Speaker 1: think they're gonna be smart enough to know that we've
Speaker 1: got to run the ball here a lot with Chubby
Speaker 1: and Kareem Hunt and all that. So I think they're
Speaker 1: gonna try to slow the game down. And um, Kansas City,
Speaker 1: you know, Kansas City, they're they're fantastic, obviously, but and
Speaker 1: it looks almost like they're not trying half the time.
Speaker 1: And in the playoffs, you know, we saw what they
Speaker 1: could do last year when they were down seven in
Speaker 1: the first half against one of the great NFL coaches
Speaker 1: of all time, Bill O'Brien, and then they were able
Speaker 1: to just incredibly come over the top with it with
Speaker 1: insane amount of points. So obviously Kansas City could score.
Speaker 1: I just think fifty seven is a tremendously high number. Um,
Speaker 1: So I'd like to take the under here because I
Speaker 1: think Cleveland's gonna have to try to slow the game
Speaker 1: down with the running game, because I mean, who goes
Speaker 1: into a Kansas City game going okay, yeah, let's try
Speaker 1: to score outscore them Rowden Jon Growdon did and he
Speaker 1: beat them. That's the I just want to say, I'm
Speaker 1: glad you brought that up, because I think the idea
Speaker 1: of running the football is great against Kansas City, but
Speaker 1: those have to end in seven points. You can't run
Speaker 1: the football end in field goals. And what happens when
Speaker 1: you're down? Are you still run the football like that?
Speaker 1: And that's conundr about running the ball, right. The Titians
Speaker 1: last year supposed to run the ball, Well, they're down,
Speaker 1: and I run the ball. The more the Niners supposed
Speaker 1: to run the football, they were actually winning the game,
Speaker 1: and the chief shut them down at the end in
Speaker 1: the rushing game. So the idea of running the football
Speaker 1: is great only if it ends in seven points. If
Speaker 1: ants in three, it means nothing. It does not help
Speaker 1: you win the game, okay, Jeff. So then let's go
Speaker 1: under first half. That's a great point. That's a great
Speaker 1: point where you're saying let's go under first half then,
Speaker 1: because the first half is gonna probably be over twenty
Speaker 1: eight and a half or something ridiculous, right, So in
Speaker 1: the there definitely could come out early and run the
Speaker 1: ball and try that. Right, they're gonna try to slow
Speaker 1: it down, I'll agree with you. In the second half
Speaker 1: they're not gonna be able to if they're down too much,
Speaker 1: but in the first half they're certainly going to try
Speaker 1: to slow it down. So let's go under first half.
Speaker 1: We get a big long drive on the first drive
Speaker 1: ends in the field goal, you're in great shape. Under
Speaker 1: twenty eight is a twenty eight and a half, Gilly,
Speaker 1: I'm sure you could find a twenty eight and a
Speaker 1: half because they're steaming the hell out of this game
Speaker 1: to the upside. So if you can get under twenty
Speaker 1: eight and a half first half, I would take that,
Speaker 1: And that's a great point by Jeff. In the second half,
Speaker 1: they probably won't be able to do that, but I
Speaker 1: think they'll be able to try it in the in
Speaker 1: the first half, I agree with. I just sensed that
Speaker 1: one or both of these teams are going to get
Speaker 1: off to one of these slow starts and uh, you know,
Speaker 1: kick a field goal or something's gonna slow it down
Speaker 1: or lie. Alright, Actually might be Kansas City who starts slow.
Speaker 1: We've seen them even off these boys. They scored ton
Speaker 1: of points, but they kind of do start slow early on.
Speaker 1: But I think this Brown's defense, though, is just so
Speaker 1: we'll see how how slowly. The last year, by the way, Jeff,
Speaker 1: last year, they were down seven in the first quarter
Speaker 1: against the Hall of Fame coach Bill Bryan. You know,
Speaker 1: I mean, I think it was actually nothing, which twenty
Speaker 1: one nothing, and Brian didn't go fourth and inches, called
Speaker 1: the time out and then said he didn't have a
Speaker 1: good fourth down play and kicked the field goal to
Speaker 1: up nothing. You know what he was great at though,
Speaker 1: you know what, it was great at being a GM
Speaker 1: though that's better. It was better as a coach. You know,
Speaker 1: nobody mentioned I thought there was only one NFL coach
Speaker 1: of all time. It was better than him, and that
Speaker 1: was Mike Tys of the Minnesota Vikings Circuit something. By
Speaker 1: the way, last thing about that, Jeff, I thought you
Speaker 1: gave the best single bit of advice betting wise last week,
Speaker 1: which we never got a chance to even get into,
Speaker 1: which was stef Stefanski's absence being you know, wouldn't matter
Speaker 1: the first fifteen plays, and then after that it would
Speaker 1: And that game was such a runout from the beginning
Speaker 1: that we never got a chance to make that actionable.
Speaker 1: It was just unbelievable. Well, I but I, but I
Speaker 1: did think we see We saw though in the third
Speaker 1: and fourth quarter when things got really tight, it's a
Speaker 1: Steelers starts sing. They went three and out, three and out.
Speaker 1: It was like, and then I had gone four in
Speaker 1: the fourth down, maybe it would have been different. But
Speaker 1: the first the first half of that game, they were
Speaker 1: all in the red zone. They just ran the ball
Speaker 1: rand the ball ran. It wasn't much thinking to do
Speaker 1: from from you know, from the play color that was.
Speaker 1: That was Doug Williams and Washington's quarter number two in
Speaker 1: nineteen Super Bowl twenty two. Who could forget thirty five
Speaker 1: thirty five un answered? Remember it like it was yesterday. Alright,
Speaker 1: final game, Tampa Bay, New Orleans. Yeah, it's three, although
Speaker 1: I'm seeing some two and a half some some spots. Now,
Speaker 1: hold on, hold on, it's going the other way, Gil.
Speaker 1: It's two and a half now right, No, I haven't
Speaker 1: going three minus fifteen, three minus twenty. I am looking
Speaker 1: at bookmaker right now. Oh sure it's two and a
Speaker 1: half and uh four responsive responses. So I don't know.
Speaker 1: I mean, you can find this in all kinds of
Speaker 1: places right now. But you're right, Todd, I'm looking. Consensus
Speaker 1: is three, but there is a two and a half
Speaker 1: out there. Um are you sure you're not looking at
Speaker 1: like um steale line, because I don't first half? You're
Speaker 1: on first half still? Oh you're right, I was on
Speaker 1: first half still, thank you, Chris. Chris is not not
Speaker 1: even looking at my computer and knew exactly where was
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, No, I thought i'd have the lock of
Speaker 1: the century coming in. The line was moving against me.
Speaker 1: So that's right. No, it's three. I'm sorry. I'm ridiculous
Speaker 1: it's minus three minus one. I want no part of
Speaker 1: this game. I think it's probably a field goal either way. Jeff,
Speaker 1: let's start with you here. Yeah, I had to write
Speaker 1: about this game, and I was, like I said, my
Speaker 1: first line is, admittedly I have no feel for this game.
Speaker 1: I have no idea what's gonna happen. I think the
Speaker 1: under if I were to take a play would be
Speaker 1: under fifty two. The last I saw the number. I
Speaker 1: don't know what's at now we have to we have
Speaker 1: two really good defenses, and this line has moved up
Speaker 1: now three points as well from we have two really
Speaker 1: good defenses. And there's a reason why the Sames defense
Speaker 1: has played well against Tampa this year. Now, Tampa's offense
Speaker 1: is different out they've changed. But Marshall Montimore in his
Speaker 1: time against Mike Evans since since is only about of
Speaker 1: nine catches total. That's it. And all the games they
Speaker 1: played against each like, they kind of have Tampa Bay's number.
Speaker 1: And there's a reason why teams typically win the third
Speaker 1: game in this rematch because they're just a better football team.
Speaker 1: But I don't really trust the Saints offense right now
Speaker 1: in the last four playoff games, whatever reason they don't
Speaker 1: score from points, I don't I don't really. I just
Speaker 1: hate this game. I under the only thing I'd play
Speaker 1: this game, um either team can win. I have no idea.
Speaker 1: I wish you could do more. Just it's funny you
Speaker 1: brought that up, because you just jogged something in my head.
Speaker 1: I asked Aaron Shots, creator Football Outsiders before this last season,
Speaker 1: when he made his Pro Football Guide before the season started.
Speaker 1: I said, what was the most surprising thing, even to
Speaker 1: you when you did all your research, give me one
Speaker 1: stat that just leap leapt off the page. And he goes,
Speaker 1: you know, it's funny you asked that. In in the
Speaker 1: saints last three playoff losses, Michael Thomas caught three passes
Speaker 1: total on third downs. He said, that was the one
Speaker 1: that jumped off the page. He's like, that's why they
Speaker 1: got Emmanuel Sanders. That's at least the theory behind it.
Speaker 1: But that was the single thing that surprised him the most.
Speaker 1: That Michael Thomas just disappeared on high leverage blaze in
Speaker 1: the playoffs games that they lost. Interesting. Um, Chris, Well,
Speaker 1: they didn't look all that impressive last week, and and
Speaker 1: I put them in the same category. I should have
Speaker 1: mentioned this. I've been talking about Buffalo. I fully expected
Speaker 1: Buffalo to be rusty and and just start off that
Speaker 1: last game, just because all the pressure was on them
Speaker 1: and they were kind of walking on eggshells, and Indie
Speaker 1: just gave them all the breaks they needed to change
Speaker 1: that game. But I expected the same thing from New Orleans. Also,
Speaker 1: why did they need to show anything? Uh that you
Speaker 1: know this is they played ten quarters the entire season
Speaker 1: with there with the big three on the offense, so
Speaker 1: you had the acclamation of of getting them all working together.
Speaker 1: And you know they're trying different things. They you know,
Speaker 1: they have to you know, integrate proper. Really. I mean
Speaker 1: every time you introduce new new players, it takes a
Speaker 1: little bit of an adjustment. So, um, I this is
Speaker 1: do or die for for the Saints. The front office
Speaker 1: is gonna get rated, breeze is gonna be gone. You
Speaker 1: don't know what's gonna go on with the camp issues.
Speaker 1: Uh so there's there's gonna be a sense of urgency
Speaker 1: with the Saints. I think, um, this is it, and
Speaker 1: I think that there's value here. Also because a lot
Speaker 1: of people follow the d v A d v A
Speaker 1: O stats Stevo A yeah, and you do not, No, no,
Speaker 1: I don't. But I know where you're going with this.
Speaker 1: That they have Tampa rated at number two and that's
Speaker 1: simply not even remotely true. Yeah, it's it's not remotely true.
Speaker 1: They've chronically over rated them all year. Well, and that's
Speaker 1: how I was able to take the game's last week
Speaker 1: because Tennessee was rated too high in Indianapolis was rated
Speaker 1: way too low. They had Indianapolis at tenth, which is absurd. Um.
Speaker 1: And that's how I is he able to find value
Speaker 1: in games last week and then switched to the complete
Speaker 1: opposite side the following week. You know, if people are
Speaker 1: gonna follow data that's wrong, Um, you're gonna get the
Speaker 1: skewed lines and you're gonna get the support that that
Speaker 1: brings this line down. I'm surprised this line is a
Speaker 1: flat three. Uh it should be higher. Um. But like
Speaker 1: like previously referenced, the Saints crushed Tampa twice already this
Speaker 1: year by double digits, and uh they have their number.
Speaker 1: They match up well, and people think, well, Okay, Tampa's
Speaker 1: a different team than they were in the middle of
Speaker 1: the season. Uh they're they're doing much better and u
Speaker 1: um they're on a roll. But who did they beat?
Speaker 1: They struggled with Washington, they beat Atlanta twice. Uh, they
Speaker 1: played Detroit, minnes Soda, They got the miracle cover against
Speaker 1: Kansas City. That game wasn't that close. So I like
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. I mean, you know, this is a problem
Speaker 1: when you get to the playoffs. You get a teams
Speaker 1: that you like betting on, uh that match up, and
Speaker 1: you gotta pick, you know, one or the other. So
Speaker 1: I definitely lean the Saints here. I think the the
Speaker 1: value the wagered in. Okay, Mike, I already laid three
Speaker 1: with the Saints. Ah, this is my strongest player of
Speaker 1: the weekend. Really yeah, for many reasons. I think they
Speaker 1: match up well with them. I think the Saints are
Speaker 1: the best team in football fully healthy. I think they're
Speaker 1: better interest, they're balanced, their balanced, The defense is nasty.
Speaker 1: I don't think Brady is I don't think Brady is
Speaker 1: an elite quarterback at this point. I mean, he made
Speaker 1: some throws, He's got some weapons this year, and that's
Speaker 1: what that's what that that gives him an ability to
Speaker 1: be more productive. But I think he's gonna have real
Speaker 1: trouble in this game. And the Tampa defense. We're all
Speaker 1: still remember how they played against Rogers. They haven't played
Speaker 1: to that level since they blitzed Creek Rogers in the
Speaker 1: second quarter. That game. They haven't played well. To Chris,
Speaker 1: they haven't played a high level. Atlanta went up and
Speaker 1: down the field, and in the first half of that
Speaker 1: game in Atlanta, okay that they dominated that first Dave
Speaker 1: and then they rallied. But I don't think this is
Speaker 1: close in terms of a talent level of these two teams.
Speaker 1: And I personally make this number six. So I laid three,
Speaker 1: all right. I think I think there's a coaching issue
Speaker 1: that's gonna I think is important also because there's a
Speaker 1: lot of things about both of these teams that make
Speaker 1: them pretty similar on the surface. And uh, it's very well,
Speaker 1: well may come down to coaching and who are you
Speaker 1: going to trust Peyton versus Arians Left which um offensively
Speaker 1: you know on that side, Tampa only one only beat
Speaker 1: one team over five hundred the whole season, one in
Speaker 1: five against teams with a winning record. You know, do
Speaker 1: you like any of those coaching matchups one side to
Speaker 1: the other? Jeff are I have a quest? So how
Speaker 1: much do you guys like? And then maybe it's just
Speaker 1: like the former player to me where I kind of
Speaker 1: look at like how a team plays in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: like you guys factor that at all into like the
Speaker 1: Saints just seemed to like just something about the playoffs
Speaker 1: are just not as good as you guys ever think
Speaker 1: about that. It just it doesn't. It's just every year
Speaker 1: is different, Every years different. Yeah, interesting, would you would?
Speaker 1: But let me ask you back, do you think there
Speaker 1: is something to that? Well, they definitely played not as
Speaker 1: well in the postseason, is at least offensively the last
Speaker 1: four games, like whatever it is. Look they have they've
Speaker 1: only won They've only won two playoff games in the
Speaker 1: single seasons. It's two thousand nine to get them on
Speaker 1: the super Bowl. They haven't won more than two in
Speaker 1: any of that time. And they've had four eleven one
Speaker 1: seasons in a row now, like they have not one
Speaker 1: a lot of playoffs. They lost last year against Minnesota
Speaker 1: is almost a touchdown a favorite. They lost the year
Speaker 1: before at home against the Rams. Yeah, I get the interception,
Speaker 1: but they also had the ball first and overtime and
Speaker 1: allowed an interception, Like they had a chance to win
Speaker 1: that game multiple times, didn't do it gets the Bears.
Speaker 1: The Bears defense is good, but they're not like that good.
Speaker 1: And the Saints kind of just look me again, and
Speaker 1: so I just I just feel like in the in
Speaker 1: the postseason for whatever reason, and I can't put my finger.
Speaker 1: I don't know what it is. I don't think as
Speaker 1: Drew Brees getting older, maybe his arm is not as
Speaker 1: good in the postseason. There's like not as good an offense.
Speaker 1: How do you feel about the Tasom Hill miss you
Speaker 1: guss when it happens, I cannot. I swear, I swear
Speaker 1: that guy has like has like nude picture to Shaan
Speaker 1: Kaine on the said, don't get it. I don't get it, Okay.
Speaker 1: I talked to a defensive coach in the NFL. He said,
Speaker 1: the reason why they do it is to make defenses prepare.
Speaker 1: For sure. That's very valid, right, so the defense have
Speaker 1: to spend an extra ten fifteen minutes a day of
Speaker 1: practice working on the Taysom Hill plays. All fair, it's
Speaker 1: all fair. But the problem is that when you put
Speaker 1: him in the game, you typically do it after Drew
Speaker 1: Brees has have like three good plays in a row.
Speaker 1: I don't get it. He's playing like between it fascinatus.
Speaker 1: Here it comes Tasom Hill and then he just give us,
Speaker 1: you know, and then he just hitches eight times in
Speaker 1: the pocket and throws interceptions like, I don't see the
Speaker 1: value in playing him like this. Who who takes out
Speaker 1: of Hall Dame quarterback to put in a thirty year
Speaker 1: old tight end. I don't get him, man, I do
Speaker 1: not understand it. It makes no sense to me. What
Speaker 1: I feel so much better because every time it happens,
Speaker 1: a little part of me dies inside. I'm like, he's
Speaker 1: not as good as Breeze of throwing, he's not as
Speaker 1: good as came running, he's not as good as Thomas Catch.
Speaker 1: Like everything he does seems like a down grade. I
Speaker 1: just feel like Sean Payton is feeding his own headlines
Speaker 1: with that. Sometimes he wants to be smarter than everyone else.
Speaker 1: That's what it is. Here's another guy wants to be
Speaker 1: smarter than everybody else, Todd wishing of everybody. I was
Speaker 1: waiting for you to try that perfect seg. That's real nice.
Speaker 1: The difference between me and him is one actually is
Speaker 1: smart as what has a better resume? Yes, exactly him
Speaker 1: get invited to the court addict. Um, okay, I'm just
Speaker 1: trying to get on the under here in the team
Speaker 1: total and they cal Bears against Colorado Buffaloes. Cal Bears
Speaker 1: under fifty seven and a half team total folks get it. Well,
Speaker 1: it's hot anyways. Uh. The thing I wanted to say,
Speaker 1: you know, Chris brought up a great point and this
Speaker 1: is this is one that I'm always on the crusade about,
Speaker 1: and that is the models are not enough. You cannot,
Speaker 1: especially in football. You cannot just be statistical oriented in football.
Speaker 1: You have to understand the game. The Pittsburgh Steelers data
Speaker 1: from the Cleveland Browns game is completely the gazzy folks.
Speaker 1: They did not. All that offense was against prevent defense.
Speaker 1: Every single bit of that offense was not against the
Speaker 1: Cleveland Browns defense that was trying until maybe it was
Speaker 1: so all that offense you could just throw it in
Speaker 1: the garbage. Okay, So all this this this modeling nonsense,
Speaker 1: and I love modeling, I'm all for it, but you
Speaker 1: have to realize that it's polluted, and it gets polluted
Speaker 1: because of games like Pittsburgh Cleveland last week, which was
Speaker 1: absolutely not the real statistics. I mean, Ben, good modelers
Speaker 1: to your point, we'll we'll have to manually go in
Speaker 1: and remove dirty data like that where the game. Okay,
Speaker 1: let's Jeff's got another show here, let's throw I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: you know, the buster forever. So okay. Anyways, the uh
Speaker 1: the other thing I was gonna say is this is
Speaker 1: I always say the NFL in game is the way
Speaker 1: to go. You shouldn't play these games pre game. You
Speaker 1: might as well go in game. This game, of all
Speaker 1: the games, is an in game because if the Saints
Speaker 1: are putting pressure on t B twelve, lights out for
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. If the Saints are not putting pressure on
Speaker 1: t B twelve, then maybe it's gonna be a tight game.
Speaker 1: So this is the kind of game where I'm gonna see,
Speaker 1: are the Saints giving him a hard time? You gotta
Speaker 1: get on the Saints. So, um, you know Tampa Bay's defense,
Speaker 1: I'm not. I don't see what's so great about Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay's defense. Hey, Niki moved on them, The Giants moved
Speaker 1: on him. Tons of teams move on Tampa Bay. So
Speaker 1: I'll be surprised if New Orleans, even if they have
Speaker 1: Taysom Hill in the game, is not able to move
Speaker 1: the ball on Tampa Bay. I think they'll be able
Speaker 1: to move the ball into the big So to me,
Speaker 1: this game just comes down to one thing. Are the
Speaker 1: Saints pressuring tea BEA twelve? Are they not pressuring him.
Speaker 1: If they are, it's all Saints all the time. If
Speaker 1: they're not, maybe it's a close game. All right, we've
Speaker 1: done all we can do. We're real quick. The best
Speaker 1: bet for everybody, Jeff, your single best bet was I'll
Speaker 1: go I'll stay with Lamar Jackson over rushing yards. Chris.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go against the team playing their fourth road
Speaker 1: game in five weeks, and that would be Saints against
Speaker 1: the Saints. Yeah. No, against the team playing against the Bucks.
Speaker 1: The Bucks are playing Florida, So Saints minus three is
Speaker 1: your favorite Stus three Ravens Packers teaser for me? Um,
Speaker 1: I'll take the Bills those minus two and a half. Uh.
Speaker 1: Jeff Schwartz, thank you so much. We've kept you long
Speaker 1: and we appreciated. Jeff Schwartz again. The name of the podcast,
Speaker 1: Jeff Schwartz is Smarter than you. The gambling related podcast
Speaker 1: once again is called um, I'm not let me get
Speaker 1: it right, I want to make it right. Minus three
Speaker 1: with in the Schwartz hold on Todd after the sentence,
Speaker 1: Minus three with Check and Schwartz with Dave, Damna, Check
Speaker 1: and cousin Sal makes appearances as well. It is Jeff
Speaker 1: Schwartz g e O f F s c h A
Speaker 1: r t z uh s c h w A r
Speaker 1: t z pardon me, Um, I couldn't thank you enough. Jeff,
Speaker 1: I know you have another show to do. We appreciate it. Man,
Speaker 1: thank you so much. You're glad to be here. Take
Speaker 1: care of everyone you too, last years Christ Mike Paul
Speaker 1: alone not on on Thursday, but still we appreciate it.
Speaker 1: And Todd Wishev thanks everybody for listening. Good luck with
Speaker 1: everything Divisional round weekend from all of us on the
Speaker 1: megapod right here live from the d Bar, Canada, Bark, Canada,
Speaker 1: right here in last pegas