1 00:00:01,280 --> 00:00:05,279 Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Bedding Pros Podcast. 2 00:00:05,440 --> 00:00:08,959 Speaker 1: This Saturday is officially Derby Day, and that means it 3 00:00:09,000 --> 00:00:11,960 Speaker 1: is time for us to talk some Kentucky Derby. So 4 00:00:12,080 --> 00:00:14,920 Speaker 1: joining me today to do just that from the Racetrack 5 00:00:15,000 --> 00:00:17,799 Speaker 1: Network none other than Dan Silver. Dan, how are you 6 00:00:17,800 --> 00:00:18,280 Speaker 1: doing today? 7 00:00:18,400 --> 00:00:20,400 Speaker 2: I'm doing great, Tom, It's great to be on here. 8 00:00:20,440 --> 00:00:22,680 Speaker 2: It's Derby week, Man's this is one of the best 9 00:00:22,680 --> 00:00:24,960 Speaker 2: weeks of the year for US horse racing degenerates. 10 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:28,319 Speaker 1: That's right, you know, in honor of the Derby. I 11 00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:30,200 Speaker 1: feel like I have to pull it out today. I 12 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:32,280 Speaker 1: feel like I have to go with a little bit 13 00:00:32,440 --> 00:00:34,640 Speaker 1: of the top hat here, my friend. 14 00:00:35,080 --> 00:00:37,760 Speaker 2: Now, that's that is like a UK thing. If you 15 00:00:37,800 --> 00:00:40,320 Speaker 2: were over there and it's funny over there, they don't 16 00:00:40,360 --> 00:00:42,720 Speaker 2: call it the Derby. They call it the Derby. So 17 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:44,800 Speaker 2: the big race, the big race over there is the 18 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:49,040 Speaker 2: EPSOM Derby. So yeah, but you would fit in right 19 00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:51,760 Speaker 2: over there. Man, it's Royal Ascots, the big meat over there. 20 00:00:51,800 --> 00:00:54,800 Speaker 2: It's coming up in mid mid June, I think. So 21 00:00:55,000 --> 00:00:56,680 Speaker 2: you could head over there and you'd be the talk 22 00:00:56,680 --> 00:00:58,680 Speaker 2: of the town. You'd probably have to upgrade your shirt 23 00:00:58,720 --> 00:00:59,440 Speaker 2: a little bit, but. 24 00:00:59,640 --> 00:01:03,200 Speaker 1: Yes, for sure. The attire would have to definitely improved. 25 00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 1: I debated going all in on the bit with the 26 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:09,319 Speaker 1: full suit, but I decided, dah, you know what, We'll 27 00:01:09,400 --> 00:01:11,040 Speaker 1: leave it with just the hat. I had to pull 28 00:01:11,040 --> 00:01:14,120 Speaker 1: it out, and you know, I guarantee you the odds 29 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:16,360 Speaker 1: that during this interview I am going to pronounce at 30 00:01:16,400 --> 00:01:19,280 Speaker 1: Darby because I'm a big soccer guy and I am 31 00:01:19,319 --> 00:01:21,320 Speaker 1: just used to at this point reading that word and 32 00:01:21,360 --> 00:01:23,200 Speaker 1: pronouncing it that way. I guarantee you it's going to 33 00:01:23,280 --> 00:01:26,839 Speaker 1: happen at least once here. But let's get on into 34 00:01:26,880 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 1: it here. Starting what exactly is it that you do 35 00:01:29,480 --> 00:01:31,920 Speaker 1: over at Racetrack Network. What is your company all about? 36 00:01:31,920 --> 00:01:34,800 Speaker 1: Because you guys are a big reason why horse racing 37 00:01:35,400 --> 00:01:38,240 Speaker 1: is something you can even bet on in America. 38 00:01:38,319 --> 00:01:41,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, so we've got a business to business business and 39 00:01:41,800 --> 00:01:45,960 Speaker 2: then we've got a business to consumer and so Roberts 40 00:01:46,040 --> 00:01:50,040 Speaker 2: Communications Network is the kind of the parent company that 41 00:01:50,080 --> 00:01:52,920 Speaker 2: I work for. My boss, Todd Roberts, created this company 42 00:01:53,000 --> 00:01:56,640 Speaker 2: and basically what we do is we take the video 43 00:01:56,800 --> 00:02:02,000 Speaker 2: feeds from the racetracks, so you know Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, 44 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,560 Speaker 2: for example, they have an on site production team. They 45 00:02:04,600 --> 00:02:08,360 Speaker 2: put together the graphics for the racing with the odds 46 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,480 Speaker 2: on it. And then we have satellite dishes and fiber 47 00:02:11,560 --> 00:02:14,840 Speaker 2: circuits and internet circuits and all the racetracks basically around 48 00:02:14,880 --> 00:02:17,640 Speaker 2: the country, and so we take all those video feeds 49 00:02:18,040 --> 00:02:19,760 Speaker 2: and then we bring them back to our headquarters in 50 00:02:19,800 --> 00:02:23,200 Speaker 2: Las Vegas, and then we distribute them to like just 51 00:02:23,360 --> 00:02:27,240 Speaker 2: tons of locations. So any off track betting facility, any 52 00:02:27,360 --> 00:02:31,000 Speaker 2: racetrack we do North America, we do around the world, 53 00:02:31,680 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 2: any online betting platform that someone might be betting on. 54 00:02:35,600 --> 00:02:39,359 Speaker 2: Roberts Communications is delivering the video to all those sites. 55 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 2: We also deliver some of the wagering information and so 56 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,560 Speaker 2: basically we're we're the video provider for the horse racing 57 00:02:46,600 --> 00:02:51,119 Speaker 2: industry globally. And then we also have a really cool 58 00:02:51,120 --> 00:02:54,600 Speaker 2: part of our business that's called Racetrack Television Network. So 59 00:02:54,680 --> 00:02:59,160 Speaker 2: it's OURTN dot tv, really cool website. Anyone can go 60 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:03,280 Speaker 2: to check it out our TV and we sell video 61 00:03:03,400 --> 00:03:06,480 Speaker 2: packages for like as low as like five bucks a 62 00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:09,519 Speaker 2: month where people can basically subscribe and then they can 63 00:03:09,639 --> 00:03:12,960 Speaker 2: watch live video and race replays. Race replays are really 64 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:15,640 Speaker 2: important for handicapping and trying to figure out who you're 65 00:03:15,639 --> 00:03:18,040 Speaker 2: gonna bet on. You can subscribe to all those cool 66 00:03:18,080 --> 00:03:21,520 Speaker 2: features and packages at URTN dot tv, and then we've 67 00:03:21,560 --> 00:03:24,480 Speaker 2: got the HD video for basically all the racetracks out there. 68 00:03:24,560 --> 00:03:28,120 Speaker 2: So so yeah, so my company basically tons and tons 69 00:03:28,160 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 2: of video distribution and some wagering distribution, really cool stuff. 70 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:36,040 Speaker 1: And so you guys, basically, if you ever walk into 71 00:03:36,040 --> 00:03:38,360 Speaker 1: a sportsbook and you go over to the race section 72 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:41,080 Speaker 1: and you might be wondering where on earth are getting 73 00:03:41,120 --> 00:03:43,839 Speaker 1: they getting the feeds for all of these videos from 74 00:03:43,920 --> 00:03:48,240 Speaker 1: like all over for horse racing, that to you, guys. 75 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 2: Oh absolutely, And so that happens a lot. I'll be 76 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,720 Speaker 2: in a casino and talking to some buddies or whatever, 77 00:03:52,760 --> 00:03:54,480 Speaker 2: playing some poker, and people will be asking me what 78 00:03:54,520 --> 00:03:56,880 Speaker 2: I do. When I say I'm in horse racing video distribution, 79 00:03:57,000 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 2: They're like, what does that mean? And then I just 80 00:03:58,720 --> 00:04:01,640 Speaker 2: point over at the at the race book and they've 81 00:04:01,640 --> 00:04:04,080 Speaker 2: got all these cool HD video feeds coming in. It's 82 00:04:04,080 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 2: got the the RCN logo that's our company, the logo 83 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:09,720 Speaker 2: in the bottom corner of the screen, and I'm like, 84 00:04:09,960 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 2: you know, my company delivers all this video to these TVs, 85 00:04:12,680 --> 00:04:14,000 Speaker 2: and people like that's pretty cool. 86 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:17,800 Speaker 1: Now. You also mentioned that you guys deliver some wagering information. 87 00:04:18,120 --> 00:04:22,280 Speaker 1: One of the biggest things with horse racing that maybe 88 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:24,320 Speaker 1: takes some people a little bit of time to wrap 89 00:04:24,360 --> 00:04:26,480 Speaker 1: their heads around when they're just getting into it, because 90 00:04:26,520 --> 00:04:28,880 Speaker 1: it's a little different from normal sports betting, and that's 91 00:04:29,279 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: paramutual betting. Can you break down kind of the short 92 00:04:33,520 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 1: version of what exactly is paramutual betting and how does 93 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:38,760 Speaker 1: it work in horse racing? 94 00:04:39,080 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, and so it's totally different than what people think 95 00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 2: of is like sports betting, which is a lot of 96 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:48,000 Speaker 2: fixed odds betting. Paramutual is a French word and it's 97 00:04:48,040 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 2: not spelled mutual like mutual funds. It's m u t 98 00:04:52,120 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 2: u e l. It's actually it's a French word paramutual, 99 00:04:54,760 --> 00:04:58,239 Speaker 2: and it means amongst ourselves, which basically means that instead 100 00:04:58,279 --> 00:05:01,120 Speaker 2: of betting against the house, you are basically just betting 101 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,560 Speaker 2: against other people. So the way that it works is 102 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:09,480 Speaker 2: that all of let's let's take the Kentucky Derby right, like, 103 00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,920 Speaker 2: there's a morning line that's out so people can look 104 00:05:12,960 --> 00:05:15,479 Speaker 2: at like what the odds maybe are predicted to be, 105 00:05:15,800 --> 00:05:17,600 Speaker 2: but the way that the odds are actually going to 106 00:05:17,720 --> 00:05:19,360 Speaker 2: end up being when they go off it's going to 107 00:05:19,480 --> 00:05:21,960 Speaker 2: change up until post time, because how it works is 108 00:05:22,000 --> 00:05:25,400 Speaker 2: that all of the money be to win, for example, 109 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 2: on the Kentucky Derby for paramutual is going to go 110 00:05:28,600 --> 00:05:32,640 Speaker 2: into one huge pool, and then what happens is is 111 00:05:32,680 --> 00:05:36,440 Speaker 2: that the racetrack usually takes about twenty to twenty five 112 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 2: percent off the top of the pool. So then what 113 00:05:39,800 --> 00:05:42,039 Speaker 2: you've got remaining after that is seventy five percent of 114 00:05:42,040 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 2: the pool, and then that money is basically divided up 115 00:05:46,240 --> 00:05:49,120 Speaker 2: amongst all the people that bet on the winning horse. 116 00:05:50,000 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 2: And that's how it works there. So there's basically a 117 00:05:52,240 --> 00:05:54,120 Speaker 2: said amount of money that's taken out of the pool, 118 00:05:54,200 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 2: and then the rest of that pool goes to the 119 00:05:56,600 --> 00:05:59,200 Speaker 2: winning betters. It's totally different than if you go to 120 00:05:59,240 --> 00:06:01,240 Speaker 2: a casino and you want to be on a football game, 121 00:06:01,920 --> 00:06:04,200 Speaker 2: and let's say that the Eagles are favored by four 122 00:06:04,240 --> 00:06:06,520 Speaker 2: and a half points over the Cowboys or whatever, and 123 00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 2: you put your bet in. You're locked in at minus 124 00:06:09,360 --> 00:06:11,520 Speaker 2: four and a half, right, and then if enough people 125 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:13,840 Speaker 2: bet on it, okay, then maybe the line will change 126 00:06:14,120 --> 00:06:16,880 Speaker 2: to like whatever minus five or minus five and a half. 127 00:06:17,600 --> 00:06:20,000 Speaker 2: With horse racing, you can bet on a horse and 128 00:06:20,040 --> 00:06:22,280 Speaker 2: then the odds are going to keep changing. In the 129 00:06:22,320 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 2: paramutual system, they're going to keep changing up until the 130 00:06:24,839 --> 00:06:27,080 Speaker 2: race time, and it could go either way, right Like, 131 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,120 Speaker 2: you could bet on a horse that's three to one 132 00:06:29,400 --> 00:06:31,640 Speaker 2: with five minutes to post, and then it could go 133 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:33,680 Speaker 2: off at either four to one, so you're getting better 134 00:06:33,680 --> 00:06:35,560 Speaker 2: odds than your thought, or two to one and you're 135 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,040 Speaker 2: getting worse odgs than your thought. But so basically that's 136 00:06:38,080 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 2: how paramutual wagering works is that the house takes a 137 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:42,960 Speaker 2: percentage off the top and then the rest of the 138 00:06:43,000 --> 00:06:47,040 Speaker 2: money is split up amongst the remaining winning betters. 139 00:06:47,360 --> 00:06:49,320 Speaker 1: And the important thing for people to keep in mind 140 00:06:49,360 --> 00:06:52,680 Speaker 1: there the nuts and bolts difference is if you go 141 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:54,480 Speaker 1: into a sportsbook, like you said, and you bet on 142 00:06:54,520 --> 00:06:57,919 Speaker 1: the Eagles at four and a half, you have that line. 143 00:06:57,960 --> 00:07:00,560 Speaker 1: You have purchased a ticket at that line, and if 144 00:07:00,560 --> 00:07:02,919 Speaker 1: the bet if it moves to four, you still have 145 00:07:03,000 --> 00:07:06,080 Speaker 1: four and a half. With paramutual betting, it's a little 146 00:07:06,120 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 1: bit different. You buy the ticket, but then based on 147 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: how many other people buy tickets for that particular horse, 148 00:07:12,640 --> 00:07:15,880 Speaker 1: your odds can either go up or down, and you 149 00:07:15,920 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 1: don't have a ticket at a specific price. You have 150 00:07:18,040 --> 00:07:19,840 Speaker 1: a ticket at the price at the end, because like 151 00:07:19,880 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: you said, all of the money is pulled together, the 152 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:26,160 Speaker 1: track takes out their percentage. That's how tracks make money today, 153 00:07:26,480 --> 00:07:28,160 Speaker 1: and that's a big reason why the sport is able 154 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:31,320 Speaker 1: to survive is through this form of betting and then 155 00:07:32,080 --> 00:07:34,560 Speaker 1: all the money that's left whenever the horse wins, if 156 00:07:34,640 --> 00:07:37,000 Speaker 1: fewer people bet on that horse, you win more money. 157 00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:40,120 Speaker 1: It's almost a little bit more like a lottery system 158 00:07:40,280 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 1: than a than a betting system. But the flip side 159 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:47,760 Speaker 1: there is also there still are fixed odds that you 160 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:50,240 Speaker 1: that you can get. Some books will be out there 161 00:07:50,320 --> 00:07:53,280 Speaker 1: offering those prices, and like you said, we have a 162 00:07:53,320 --> 00:07:55,440 Speaker 1: morning line that we can reference right now, but those 163 00:07:55,520 --> 00:07:58,680 Speaker 1: numbers will change drastically, whereas if you buy a fixed 164 00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:02,040 Speaker 1: price ticket at a sportsbook, that ticket is going to 165 00:08:02,080 --> 00:08:04,080 Speaker 1: stay the same price. And we'll discuss a little bit 166 00:08:04,120 --> 00:08:08,080 Speaker 1: of both of those lines today. Guys, real quick, remember 167 00:08:08,080 --> 00:08:10,560 Speaker 1: when you're looking for free picks and sports betting advice, 168 00:08:10,600 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 1: bettingpros dot com has you covered with tips from over 169 00:08:13,600 --> 00:08:16,120 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty experts to make it easy for 170 00:08:16,160 --> 00:08:18,760 Speaker 1: you to cash out. 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Now, Dan, let's talk about some of these 177 00:08:41,559 --> 00:08:45,600 Speaker 1: horses themselves, specifically some of the favorites here, because we 178 00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:48,720 Speaker 1: only have three horses right now in the single digits. 179 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:51,800 Speaker 1: Morning Line has Epicenter at seven to two, Messa at 180 00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:54,680 Speaker 1: eight to one, and Zending down at three to one. 181 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:58,679 Speaker 1: Is this a wide open Derby field? Or is one 182 00:08:58,720 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 1: of these horses a clear runaway favorite where everybody's kind 183 00:09:02,280 --> 00:09:04,520 Speaker 1: of saying they have a massive inside track. 184 00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:07,920 Speaker 2: So to me and the Kentucky Derby, it's a twenty 185 00:09:07,920 --> 00:09:10,360 Speaker 2: horse field. You've got a bunch of horses coming in 186 00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 2: from different races. It's hard to kind of gauge them 187 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:15,760 Speaker 2: against one another. So for me, the Kentucky Derby is 188 00:09:15,760 --> 00:09:18,400 Speaker 2: almost always like a pretty wide open race unless there's 189 00:09:18,440 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 2: some just flat out dominant horse based on the speed 190 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:22,439 Speaker 2: figures and. 191 00:09:22,480 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 1: They don't have like a Medina Spirit or American Pharaoh 192 00:09:26,280 --> 00:09:26,640 Speaker 1: this year. 193 00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:29,440 Speaker 2: Yeah exactly. I mean Medeina Spirit actually went off at 194 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:31,240 Speaker 2: like eight to one, so he wasn't even like that 195 00:09:31,280 --> 00:09:34,600 Speaker 2: big of a favorite. American Pharaoh was, you know, a 196 00:09:34,640 --> 00:09:39,160 Speaker 2: projected pretty big favorite of the race. But yeah, so 197 00:09:39,360 --> 00:09:43,280 Speaker 2: to me, it's a fairly wide open race, and there's 198 00:09:43,360 --> 00:09:45,960 Speaker 2: question marks about the two favorites. For me, there are 199 00:09:46,080 --> 00:09:49,000 Speaker 2: question marks about so Zanden is the morning line favorite 200 00:09:49,040 --> 00:09:53,400 Speaker 2: at three to one, great trainer Chad Brown, but he's 201 00:09:53,440 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 2: a closer, which means that he likes to go to 202 00:09:56,080 --> 00:09:57,760 Speaker 2: the back of the pack at the beginning of the 203 00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:00,240 Speaker 2: race and then kind of make a big rally at 204 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 2: the end. And for me, that's kind of like the 205 00:10:02,040 --> 00:10:05,240 Speaker 2: most exciting running style, right, like seeing this horse galloping 206 00:10:05,320 --> 00:10:07,280 Speaker 2: down the stretch and making up a lot of ground. 207 00:10:07,760 --> 00:10:10,000 Speaker 2: But when you're dealing with a twenty horse race, that 208 00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:13,600 Speaker 2: can be a problem. Like it's different trying to come 209 00:10:13,640 --> 00:10:17,439 Speaker 2: from last place against five horses than against eighteen or 210 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:20,199 Speaker 2: nineteen horses, because if you're go only going up against 211 00:10:20,200 --> 00:10:22,360 Speaker 2: five or six horses, it's a little easier to weave 212 00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:26,040 Speaker 2: in and out of traffic, whereas Zanden is probably going 213 00:10:26,080 --> 00:10:29,000 Speaker 2: to be in seventeenth or eighteenth place early on in 214 00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:31,040 Speaker 2: the race, and then he's gonna have to weave his 215 00:10:31,120 --> 00:10:34,880 Speaker 2: way through all these different horses. And so even if 216 00:10:34,880 --> 00:10:36,480 Speaker 2: you want to say he's the best horse in the race, 217 00:10:36,480 --> 00:10:38,600 Speaker 2: which I don't even think I would say that, but 218 00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:41,599 Speaker 2: if you did think that, you'd also have to acknowledge 219 00:10:41,600 --> 00:10:42,800 Speaker 2: that he's going to have to have a little bit 220 00:10:42,800 --> 00:10:45,240 Speaker 2: of racing luck. So for me, that's not the kind 221 00:10:45,240 --> 00:10:46,920 Speaker 2: of horse you want to bet on as a favorite. 222 00:10:47,120 --> 00:10:51,280 Speaker 2: At the Center has run some good races. He's two 223 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,160 Speaker 2: races in a row. He's run very well with decent 224 00:10:54,200 --> 00:10:58,200 Speaker 2: speed figures, but he's gotten perfect trips, meaning like he 225 00:10:58,240 --> 00:10:59,720 Speaker 2: went to the lead in one of the races and 226 00:10:59,720 --> 00:11:01,559 Speaker 2: no one challenged him and he won, and then the 227 00:11:01,600 --> 00:11:03,600 Speaker 2: other race he was kind of able to just sit 228 00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:06,520 Speaker 2: right behind the leaders and make a move. Again, this 229 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:09,760 Speaker 2: is a twenty horse feel, and I don't think Epicenter 230 00:11:09,800 --> 00:11:12,280 Speaker 2: has shown me enough to make me think that like 231 00:11:12,360 --> 00:11:14,679 Speaker 2: betting him at four to one or something like that 232 00:11:14,800 --> 00:11:17,640 Speaker 2: is good value. The other thing about him right now 233 00:11:17,679 --> 00:11:20,040 Speaker 2: is that he's got a great trainer, Steve Asmussen, but 234 00:11:20,120 --> 00:11:22,040 Speaker 2: he's kind of struggling at the moment. He has not 235 00:11:22,080 --> 00:11:24,720 Speaker 2: been winning a lot of races recently, and so I 236 00:11:24,760 --> 00:11:26,920 Speaker 2: want to see him start kind of like winning winning 237 00:11:27,000 --> 00:11:30,800 Speaker 2: races because it's streaky, like jockeys get streaky, trainers get streaky, 238 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:34,520 Speaker 2: just like in baseball, hitters get streaky, right, So I 239 00:11:34,600 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 2: kind of want to see how he performs. I do 240 00:11:37,160 --> 00:11:40,079 Speaker 2: like Messier. He's one of those horses that used to 241 00:11:40,120 --> 00:11:42,840 Speaker 2: be with Bob Baffort and is not anymore because Baffort 242 00:11:42,880 --> 00:11:47,040 Speaker 2: is not allowed to compete in Kentucky. And I think 243 00:11:47,040 --> 00:11:49,000 Speaker 2: that Messia is coming out of one of the strongest 244 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:52,040 Speaker 2: prep races, which was the one in California, but he 245 00:11:52,120 --> 00:11:55,600 Speaker 2: lost that race. He lost that race to Tiba, who's 246 00:11:55,720 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 2: one of his stablemates. Actually, Tim Yak team is now 247 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:01,320 Speaker 2: training these horses that Bob baff used to have, and 248 00:12:02,320 --> 00:12:05,319 Speaker 2: I think that Taiba might be more talented horse than Messier. 249 00:12:05,400 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 2: So I do like Messier at eight to one, But 250 00:12:09,280 --> 00:12:10,960 Speaker 2: there's some other horses I like a little bit more 251 00:12:10,960 --> 00:12:11,160 Speaker 2: than it. 252 00:12:11,840 --> 00:12:16,680 Speaker 1: Talking specifically about Bob Baffort and obviously not allowed to 253 00:12:16,720 --> 00:12:20,640 Speaker 1: compete in Kentucky, but these horses are still to a 254 00:12:20,679 --> 00:12:24,640 Speaker 1: degree Bafford horses. Tim Yakin training them now, but back 255 00:12:25,320 --> 00:12:28,680 Speaker 1: before then they were Bafford horses. Do you think that 256 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:32,320 Speaker 1: they're going to still be bet like we often see 257 00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:35,440 Speaker 1: Bob Baffort horses get bet in these races where the 258 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:38,959 Speaker 1: public tends to flock to them or are Do you 259 00:12:39,000 --> 00:12:41,080 Speaker 1: think the public might stay away a little bit more? 260 00:12:41,840 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't think they're gonna get bet like they 261 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,000 Speaker 2: would have if they were trained by Bob Bafford, Right, 262 00:12:47,120 --> 00:12:49,440 Speaker 2: like Taiba is I think twelve to one on the 263 00:12:49,440 --> 00:12:52,480 Speaker 2: morning line. If Tiba was trained by Bob Baffort, he 264 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 2: would not be twelve to one on the morning line. 265 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:57,240 Speaker 2: He is probably the most talented horse in the race. 266 00:12:57,280 --> 00:13:00,440 Speaker 2: He's only run twice, which is a kind of scaring 267 00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 2: some people off. But yeah, if Messia and Tyber were 268 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:07,960 Speaker 2: trained by Bob Bafford, I think that they would be 269 00:13:08,040 --> 00:13:10,200 Speaker 2: getting bet more than they will be getting bet. 270 00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:15,000 Speaker 1: Now, let's talk about some of those more long shot horses. 271 00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:16,920 Speaker 1: Like you said, this field is going to be very 272 00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:21,200 Speaker 1: wide open. Specifically, there's a Japanese horse in Crown Pride 273 00:13:21,520 --> 00:13:23,720 Speaker 1: that is getting a lot of buzz right now. Crown 274 00:13:23,720 --> 00:13:26,720 Speaker 1: Pride twenty to one on the morning line at the moment, 275 00:13:27,240 --> 00:13:29,520 Speaker 1: just had a really good practice run. It looks like 276 00:13:29,520 --> 00:13:33,280 Speaker 1: I've been seeing on Twitter here, But do you think 277 00:13:33,320 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 1: that Crown Pride could be a sneaky live play just 278 00:13:36,400 --> 00:13:40,480 Speaker 1: won the UAE Derby. Foreign horses don't typically do that 279 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:43,760 Speaker 1: well in the Kentucky Derby, though, Could he be the 280 00:13:43,800 --> 00:13:45,360 Speaker 1: one to change that because there's been a lot going 281 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:46,360 Speaker 1: on with Japanese horses. 282 00:13:46,360 --> 00:13:50,880 Speaker 2: I'm correct, Yeah, it's really interesting, so foreign horses, You're 283 00:13:50,880 --> 00:13:53,480 Speaker 2: absolutely correct. I have not had a lot of success in 284 00:13:53,520 --> 00:13:56,040 Speaker 2: the Kentucky Derby, and most of the foreign horses that 285 00:13:56,120 --> 00:14:00,120 Speaker 2: run in it precede that race by running in a 286 00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,400 Speaker 2: race called the UAE Derby, which is held in Dubai, 287 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:05,840 Speaker 2: and there hasn't been a whole lot of success with 288 00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,320 Speaker 2: horses coming from that race to the US for the 289 00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:12,920 Speaker 2: Kentucky Derby. However, the Japanese horses specifically have been having 290 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 2: a lot of success recently over the course of the 291 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:18,680 Speaker 2: last year. Last fall, at the Breeders' Cup, which is 292 00:14:18,720 --> 00:14:22,400 Speaker 2: a huge horse racing event with races on the grass, 293 00:14:22,400 --> 00:14:25,360 Speaker 2: on the dirt, for older horses, for younger horses at 294 00:14:25,400 --> 00:14:28,680 Speaker 2: all distances, the Japanese won two of those races, and 295 00:14:28,800 --> 00:14:31,160 Speaker 2: one of them they won a turf race which the 296 00:14:31,160 --> 00:14:33,480 Speaker 2: horse was kind of one of the favorites, but they 297 00:14:33,520 --> 00:14:35,840 Speaker 2: want a dirt race with a horse came called Marsha 298 00:14:35,880 --> 00:14:38,280 Speaker 2: Lorraine and she was like a huge long shot in 299 00:14:38,280 --> 00:14:40,920 Speaker 2: that race, and it kind of opens some people's eyes. 300 00:14:41,440 --> 00:14:44,400 Speaker 2: And not only that, but then earlier this year in 301 00:14:44,440 --> 00:14:49,840 Speaker 2: Saudi Arabia and Dubai, the Japanese runners had unprecedented success 302 00:14:50,440 --> 00:14:52,280 Speaker 2: and so a lot of people are wondering, like, what's 303 00:14:52,320 --> 00:14:56,200 Speaker 2: going on with these Japanese horses, Like they have they 304 00:14:56,200 --> 00:14:58,640 Speaker 2: figured out how to train them a little bit differently 305 00:14:58,680 --> 00:15:00,640 Speaker 2: so that they're better able to handle the rigors of 306 00:15:00,680 --> 00:15:04,280 Speaker 2: international travel or something like that, Like what is going 307 00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,440 Speaker 2: on with these horses, whatever's going on, they're running really well, 308 00:15:07,480 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 2: and so you have to respect the Japanese horses around 309 00:15:11,040 --> 00:15:13,160 Speaker 2: the world, and that includes this horse. And he won 310 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:17,800 Speaker 2: the UAE Derby in his last race. He's been training 311 00:15:18,040 --> 00:15:21,840 Speaker 2: very well at Kentucky at Churchill Downs. As you mentioned, 312 00:15:23,240 --> 00:15:25,760 Speaker 2: he doesn't look as fast on paper as some of 313 00:15:25,800 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 2: these other horses, but to me, the Japanese horses have 314 00:15:29,560 --> 00:15:32,800 Speaker 2: been running so well that you ignore him at your 315 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:35,320 Speaker 2: own peril. In this race, you said he's twenty to 316 00:15:35,320 --> 00:15:37,640 Speaker 2: one morning line. Because of what I'm talking about, I 317 00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:39,640 Speaker 2: think he might get bet down a little bit, maybe 318 00:15:39,720 --> 00:15:42,200 Speaker 2: to like fourteen to one. But I'm the kind of 319 00:15:42,200 --> 00:15:44,840 Speaker 2: person who I bet like multiple race wagers, so I 320 00:15:44,920 --> 00:15:46,560 Speaker 2: might bet like a pick five where I got to 321 00:15:46,560 --> 00:15:49,600 Speaker 2: pick the winners of five straight races. And I'm definitely 322 00:15:49,600 --> 00:15:52,040 Speaker 2: going to use the Japanese horse because I can't let 323 00:15:52,160 --> 00:15:55,960 Speaker 2: him beat me. The way that these Japanese horses are running, and. 324 00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: They're not just having success abroad. You mentioned that they 325 00:16:00,280 --> 00:16:02,840 Speaker 1: have also been winning in the Breeders' Cup here in America. 326 00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,280 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, they won two Breeders' Cup races last year 327 00:16:06,280 --> 00:16:10,400 Speaker 2: in America. So it's not only you know in Asia 328 00:16:10,440 --> 00:16:12,960 Speaker 2: that they're winning. They've come over to the United States 329 00:16:12,960 --> 00:16:15,080 Speaker 2: and they are running better than they ever have before. 330 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:18,200 Speaker 2: And it's only a matter of time before a Japanese 331 00:16:18,240 --> 00:16:20,920 Speaker 2: horse wins one of these Triple Crown races. And I 332 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 2: won't be surprised if this is it. 333 00:16:23,440 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 1: Another long shot here is Summer is tomorrow. He is 334 00:16:27,480 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: thirty to one, and he could be potentially another guy, 335 00:16:32,040 --> 00:16:34,400 Speaker 1: another horse that people are looking at. He came in 336 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:36,680 Speaker 1: second in that UAE Darby, Is that correct? 337 00:16:37,320 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 2: Yeah? So summers Tomorrow, to me, doesn't really have a 338 00:16:41,160 --> 00:16:44,600 Speaker 2: good shot to win. But however, he is going to 339 00:16:44,720 --> 00:16:49,360 Speaker 2: impact this race greatly because the running style that summers 340 00:16:49,360 --> 00:16:52,200 Speaker 2: Tomorrow has is he goes right to the front. He's 341 00:16:52,240 --> 00:16:55,440 Speaker 2: a fast horse. They call it a sprinter, So he's 342 00:16:55,480 --> 00:16:57,800 Speaker 2: a sprinter. So he's going to go right out there 343 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:01,760 Speaker 2: at the beginning of a race, and they call it pace, 344 00:17:02,280 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 2: and they say pace makes the race. And so basically 345 00:17:06,320 --> 00:17:08,920 Speaker 2: what that means is that, let's say there's a race 346 00:17:08,960 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 2: with ten horses, right, and only one of them likes 347 00:17:12,320 --> 00:17:14,760 Speaker 2: going to the front and the other nine like being 348 00:17:14,760 --> 00:17:16,879 Speaker 2: at the back of the pack. Well, the one in 349 00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:19,240 Speaker 2: the front is going to have the advantage, right because 350 00:17:19,240 --> 00:17:21,520 Speaker 2: he's just going to be able to coast along at 351 00:17:21,560 --> 00:17:23,359 Speaker 2: the front of the race and just chill up there 352 00:17:23,400 --> 00:17:26,879 Speaker 2: and do his thing. Or if there's nine horses that 353 00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:29,480 Speaker 2: like being on the front and one horse that likes 354 00:17:29,480 --> 00:17:32,359 Speaker 2: being in the back, it's greatly advantageous for the horse 355 00:17:32,400 --> 00:17:34,280 Speaker 2: that's like being at the back, because the horses in 356 00:17:34,320 --> 00:17:36,360 Speaker 2: the front, they're going to tie each other out, they're 357 00:17:36,400 --> 00:17:38,240 Speaker 2: going to go too fast, and then the horse in 358 00:17:38,280 --> 00:17:40,160 Speaker 2: the back is going to run past all of them. 359 00:17:40,280 --> 00:17:43,200 Speaker 2: Now that's an extreme way of kind of providing those examples. 360 00:17:43,760 --> 00:17:47,679 Speaker 2: But summers Tomorrow is going to add a lot of 361 00:17:47,760 --> 00:17:49,520 Speaker 2: pace to the front of this race. And there's some 362 00:17:49,640 --> 00:17:54,320 Speaker 2: other horses classic Causeway Messier who like being towards the 363 00:17:54,359 --> 00:17:57,080 Speaker 2: front and it's going to cause them problems that summers 364 00:17:57,119 --> 00:17:59,520 Speaker 2: Tomorrow is in there. So I would not be betting 365 00:17:59,520 --> 00:18:02,720 Speaker 2: on Summer's Tomorrow to win to place. I think he's 366 00:18:02,800 --> 00:18:05,760 Speaker 2: the favorite to finish last quite honestly in this race, 367 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,240 Speaker 2: but he's going to impact the race because of his style. 368 00:18:10,400 --> 00:18:14,080 Speaker 1: And you talk about that with style and various attributes 369 00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:16,480 Speaker 1: front running as a sprinter or be in the back 370 00:18:16,520 --> 00:18:19,600 Speaker 1: of the pack horse in a crowded field like the 371 00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 1: Kentucky Derby. Like you talked about, it's a twenty horse race. 372 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,760 Speaker 1: Most races in America are eight to not seven to 373 00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:29,800 Speaker 1: eight horses. What attributes really do you take a look 374 00:18:29,840 --> 00:18:32,240 Speaker 1: at in the Derby versus some other horse races that 375 00:18:32,280 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 1: make you say this is a horse that I would 376 00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:36,760 Speaker 1: like to be betting on here? What are the things 377 00:18:36,800 --> 00:18:38,439 Speaker 1: you look at? Is it that you like to be 378 00:18:38,480 --> 00:18:43,119 Speaker 1: betting sprinters or is it simply that based on each field? 379 00:18:43,160 --> 00:18:45,399 Speaker 1: And if so, what are the attributes you're looking for 380 00:18:45,440 --> 00:18:46,160 Speaker 1: in this field. 381 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:48,399 Speaker 2: Yeah, so, you know, and it's kind of what I 382 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,080 Speaker 2: was talking about with Zanden earlier on where he might 383 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:52,439 Speaker 2: be one of the best horses in the race, but 384 00:18:52,480 --> 00:18:54,320 Speaker 2: he's a closer and he's gonna have to go around 385 00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:56,280 Speaker 2: a lot of horses and that leaves a lot up 386 00:18:56,280 --> 00:18:59,240 Speaker 2: to luck, up to the race and gods. So typically 387 00:18:59,280 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 2: in the Kentucky you prefer to have a horse that 388 00:19:02,680 --> 00:19:05,720 Speaker 2: what they call is handy or versatile, meaning that he 389 00:19:05,800 --> 00:19:08,520 Speaker 2: can kind of go up to the front towards the 390 00:19:08,520 --> 00:19:11,880 Speaker 2: front if he wants to right like early in the race, 391 00:19:11,920 --> 00:19:15,240 Speaker 2: so you can get positioning. So if you think about 392 00:19:15,640 --> 00:19:18,720 Speaker 2: four different kinds of running styles in horse racing, there's 393 00:19:19,040 --> 00:19:22,760 Speaker 2: front runners, there's stalkers who are right behind the front runners, 394 00:19:22,880 --> 00:19:28,320 Speaker 2: there's midpack runners, and there's closers. And traditionally the stalkers 395 00:19:28,480 --> 00:19:30,400 Speaker 2: are the ones in the Kentucky Derby that have done 396 00:19:30,400 --> 00:19:32,639 Speaker 2: the best because it's very hard to win the Kentucky 397 00:19:32,680 --> 00:19:35,640 Speaker 2: Derby going wire to wire. Medina Spirit did it last 398 00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:39,400 Speaker 2: year and it has happened. But typically there's a bunch 399 00:19:39,440 --> 00:19:40,960 Speaker 2: of horses that want to get to the front and 400 00:19:40,960 --> 00:19:43,440 Speaker 2: they tie each other out, and then it's that next 401 00:19:43,480 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 2: group of horses, the stalkers, who can sit there and 402 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,360 Speaker 2: then pounce and then hold off the closers, a lot 403 00:19:50,359 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 2: of who might be coming into traffic trouble, and so 404 00:19:53,680 --> 00:19:56,280 Speaker 2: typically while any of those styles can win the race, 405 00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,119 Speaker 2: the stalkers typically that's where you want to be. You 406 00:20:00,160 --> 00:20:04,399 Speaker 2: want to be in that second flight of horses around 407 00:20:04,400 --> 00:20:06,879 Speaker 2: the track. So that's where I think you want to be. 408 00:20:07,200 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 2: And you know, a couple of horses that I like 409 00:20:09,640 --> 00:20:11,920 Speaker 2: this year are sort of stalkers. I mean, I think 410 00:20:11,960 --> 00:20:14,199 Speaker 2: Messier is going to get a good stalking trip. I 411 00:20:14,240 --> 00:20:17,359 Speaker 2: think that Taiba could get a decent stalking trip charge 412 00:20:17,359 --> 00:20:19,080 Speaker 2: It is one of the long shots I like, and 413 00:20:19,080 --> 00:20:20,840 Speaker 2: I think he's going to get a good stalking trip. 414 00:20:22,640 --> 00:20:25,080 Speaker 2: Cyber Knife is a horse horse that's another long shot 415 00:20:25,119 --> 00:20:26,280 Speaker 2: that I kind of think is going to get a 416 00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:28,679 Speaker 2: good stalking trip. So those are the kinds of horses 417 00:20:28,680 --> 00:20:29,840 Speaker 2: that I prefer in a race like this. 418 00:20:30,880 --> 00:20:33,240 Speaker 1: Guys, real quick, I want to talk to you about Sleeper. 419 00:20:33,359 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 1: It's the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players. 420 00:20:37,080 --> 00:20:39,240 Speaker 1: You probably already have a Fantasy league on there. I 421 00:20:39,359 --> 00:20:42,000 Speaker 1: use it for mine it's a game changing product unlike 422 00:20:42,040 --> 00:20:44,520 Speaker 1: anything else in the industry, and now you could win 423 00:20:44,600 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 1: on Sleeper by playing their new over undergame. It's super simple. First, 424 00:20:49,359 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 1: just choose any sport. 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My pick for this weekend janis Anteta 444 00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:45,240 Speaker 1: Kumpo over twenty nine and a half points. Terms and 445 00:21:45,280 --> 00:21:49,119 Speaker 1: conditions apply. See Sleeper dot com for details. Now, another 446 00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,679 Speaker 1: thing is the fact that it is very tough to 447 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:56,160 Speaker 1: compare these horses. It's almost like last year in the NHL, 448 00:21:56,640 --> 00:22:00,199 Speaker 1: how every team just played their own divisions and so 449 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,639 Speaker 1: you didn't see anyone versus anyone else. That's kind of 450 00:22:02,640 --> 00:22:04,639 Speaker 1: how it always is in horse racing, because it's not 451 00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:07,320 Speaker 1: like all of these horses are racing each other. You're 452 00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:10,800 Speaker 1: making comparisons that are almost apples to oranges. But one 453 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:12,800 Speaker 1: of the ways that we can look at and make 454 00:22:12,880 --> 00:22:16,000 Speaker 1: some of these comparisons is through prep races, the races 455 00:22:16,040 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 1: that these horses are racing in before the derby to 456 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:22,320 Speaker 1: get them ready. What are some of the horses that 457 00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:24,840 Speaker 1: have been performing really well in these prep races, and 458 00:22:24,880 --> 00:22:28,439 Speaker 1: what are the stronger prep races that you've been looking at. 459 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,399 Speaker 1: Which ones are you weighing the field more heavily versus others. 460 00:22:31,800 --> 00:22:33,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, So that's one of the things that makes the 461 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:35,560 Speaker 2: Kentucky Derby so interesting is there's twenty horses in it, 462 00:22:35,960 --> 00:22:37,920 Speaker 2: but very few of them have run against each other 463 00:22:38,359 --> 00:22:40,919 Speaker 2: because there's all these prep races, like you mentioned, and 464 00:22:40,920 --> 00:22:43,600 Speaker 2: those races are all about four to six weeks before 465 00:22:43,640 --> 00:22:46,600 Speaker 2: the derby. There's the one in Dubai I mentioned, there's 466 00:22:46,640 --> 00:22:49,520 Speaker 2: one in Florida, there's one in New York, there's one 467 00:22:49,600 --> 00:22:52,919 Speaker 2: in California, there's one in Kentucky, there's one in Arkansas, 468 00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:56,400 Speaker 2: there's one in Louisiana. So there's all these prep races, 469 00:22:56,960 --> 00:23:01,720 Speaker 2: and there's people in horse racing who very smart people 470 00:23:01,720 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 2: who put together what they call speed figures, which is 471 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:08,240 Speaker 2: kind of a way of equalizing the times of the 472 00:23:08,240 --> 00:23:11,320 Speaker 2: different track to actually put a one number on how 473 00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:13,880 Speaker 2: fast a horse ran, and you'd hope to be able 474 00:23:13,880 --> 00:23:16,560 Speaker 2: to compare it to the other races, because, as you said, 475 00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 2: these horses are running against each other. But this year 476 00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:21,920 Speaker 2: a lot of the prep race has had similar kind 477 00:23:21,960 --> 00:23:25,119 Speaker 2: of speed numbers, so it's a lot of it's a 478 00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:29,159 Speaker 2: crapshoot for me. The California race, which is called the 479 00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:31,399 Speaker 2: sand nein a Derby I thought was a very strong 480 00:23:31,480 --> 00:23:35,080 Speaker 2: race this year. That's the one with Taiba and Messier, 481 00:23:36,040 --> 00:23:38,200 Speaker 2: and the Florida Derby, which is a race that a 482 00:23:38,240 --> 00:23:40,560 Speaker 2: lot of people don't really think was a strong prep. 483 00:23:41,320 --> 00:23:43,119 Speaker 2: I actually like some of the horses coming out of 484 00:23:43,119 --> 00:23:45,680 Speaker 2: the Florida Derby. Charge It was coming out of that race. 485 00:23:46,359 --> 00:23:49,000 Speaker 2: White up Ario won that race. His trainer has not 486 00:23:49,080 --> 00:23:52,600 Speaker 2: done very well outside of Kentucky traditionally Saffy Joseph, so 487 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,120 Speaker 2: there's some question marks there, but Charge It's trainer Todd 488 00:23:55,160 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 2: Pletcher has so for me, the sand in A Derby 489 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:03,280 Speaker 2: and the Florida Derby were two of the stronger preps, 490 00:24:04,240 --> 00:24:06,200 Speaker 2: the races that epicenters come out of, a lot of 491 00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,680 Speaker 2: people really like those races, but I'm not sure about 492 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:12,879 Speaker 2: the quality of those races. The New York Race is okay, 493 00:24:13,280 --> 00:24:17,080 Speaker 2: I didn't think it was spectacular, and the Kentucky prep race, 494 00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:20,760 Speaker 2: you know, was okay. But for me, the California Race 495 00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:22,720 Speaker 2: was the best prep race, and that's the race that 496 00:24:22,720 --> 00:24:25,200 Speaker 2: I'm kind of concentrating on horses coming out of that. 497 00:24:26,040 --> 00:24:29,879 Speaker 1: Another big factor can be weather, and it's looking in 498 00:24:29,920 --> 00:24:31,800 Speaker 1: the weather forecast right now like it's going to be 499 00:24:31,800 --> 00:24:34,840 Speaker 1: pretty rainy up to Derby Day. Do you think that 500 00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:36,800 Speaker 1: there's some horses that are gonna fare better on a 501 00:24:36,840 --> 00:24:39,320 Speaker 1: muddier track versus some horses that we maybe want to 502 00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:41,879 Speaker 1: look at late if the track ends up being a 503 00:24:41,920 --> 00:24:43,400 Speaker 1: little firmer and a little more dry. 504 00:24:44,160 --> 00:24:47,280 Speaker 2: So it has been raining a lot in Louisville. It 505 00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:52,159 Speaker 2: rained yesterday, today's dry, but Thursday and Friday it's supposed 506 00:24:52,160 --> 00:24:54,640 Speaker 2: to get more rain, so there will be some moisture 507 00:24:54,640 --> 00:24:56,720 Speaker 2: in the track. Now that the track team there does 508 00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:00,600 Speaker 2: a great job and buy Kentucky Derby Day, I'm guessing 509 00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:04,520 Speaker 2: it's going to be a dry track. But it's very 510 00:25:04,520 --> 00:25:07,800 Speaker 2: hard to predict which horses are going to like mud 511 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,639 Speaker 2: in the track, because a horse could like a muddy 512 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,520 Speaker 2: surface in New York, but maybe that surface is different 513 00:25:13,520 --> 00:25:18,480 Speaker 2: than the muddy surface in Louisville Churchill Downs, So it 514 00:25:18,560 --> 00:25:20,600 Speaker 2: is very hard to predict. You can when you look 515 00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:22,760 Speaker 2: at the past performances for these races, and you can 516 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:25,000 Speaker 2: get them at like drf dot com, which is the 517 00:25:25,080 --> 00:25:28,119 Speaker 2: daily racing form. It will show you the conditions for 518 00:25:28,200 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 2: the horses from the past races like Zanden. For example, 519 00:25:33,000 --> 00:25:37,119 Speaker 2: his win in Kentucky at Keenland Racecourse right before the 520 00:25:37,119 --> 00:25:39,399 Speaker 2: Derby was on kind of a wet racetrack, so that 521 00:25:39,440 --> 00:25:42,199 Speaker 2: would lead you to believe that he would probably like, 522 00:25:42,480 --> 00:25:44,120 Speaker 2: you know, a little bit of wetness in the track. 523 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:46,800 Speaker 2: But as I look through these past performances, not a 524 00:25:46,840 --> 00:25:49,480 Speaker 2: lot of these horses have experience on a wet racetrack, 525 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:52,640 Speaker 2: and so it's kind of it's it's hard to figure out, 526 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:55,280 Speaker 2: you know, what would happen on a wet racetrack. It's 527 00:25:55,359 --> 00:25:59,480 Speaker 2: it's just another variable. It's another reason why it's hard 528 00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:02,399 Speaker 2: to bet on a horse at a low price in 529 00:26:02,440 --> 00:26:06,440 Speaker 2: the Kentucky Derby because there's so many variables. So it's 530 00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,920 Speaker 2: why I kind of try and concentrate more on longer, 531 00:26:09,240 --> 00:26:10,360 Speaker 2: longer priced horses. 532 00:26:10,920 --> 00:26:12,960 Speaker 1: Want to track all of your wagers in one place, 533 00:26:13,240 --> 00:26:16,560 Speaker 1: check out the Betting prospicktracker at bettingpros dot com slash 534 00:26:16,640 --> 00:26:19,199 Speaker 1: pick tracking. It syncs up with your sports books to 535 00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:22,199 Speaker 1: tally which picks hit, which miss, and gives you a 536 00:26:22,240 --> 00:26:24,560 Speaker 1: live look at what the public is doing. So you 537 00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,240 Speaker 1: can use real time tracking to determine which place to 538 00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,280 Speaker 1: make and which to fade. Get on the leaderboard and 539 00:26:30,320 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 1: quickly become a sharp by using the free advice we 540 00:26:32,800 --> 00:26:37,399 Speaker 1: offer at bettingpros dot com slash Picktracking. Now, my last 541 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 1: question for you here, what are some of the mistakes 542 00:26:41,640 --> 00:26:46,080 Speaker 1: that first time horse racing betters, that casual horse racing 543 00:26:46,119 --> 00:26:48,359 Speaker 1: betters might be making going into a race like this, 544 00:26:48,520 --> 00:26:53,320 Speaker 1: things that they're overvaluing or undervaluing when picking a horse. Obviously, 545 00:26:54,000 --> 00:26:56,480 Speaker 1: this is an event. Some people are just gonna come 546 00:26:56,480 --> 00:26:59,440 Speaker 1: in and go, I like that horse's name, that's my pick. 547 00:26:59,520 --> 00:27:02,240 Speaker 1: Like that. It's a time honored tradition at the racetrack, 548 00:27:02,440 --> 00:27:06,360 Speaker 1: and by all means there's no bashing of that. Absolutely, 549 00:27:06,400 --> 00:27:08,120 Speaker 1: go and make a bet based on that if you want. 550 00:27:08,119 --> 00:27:10,879 Speaker 1: We're here to have fun. But some of the people 551 00:27:10,880 --> 00:27:14,040 Speaker 1: that may be trying to take it a little more seriously, 552 00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:15,679 Speaker 1: what are some of the things that they might be 553 00:27:15,680 --> 00:27:17,320 Speaker 1: doing wrong when they're making their picks. 554 00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:19,840 Speaker 2: So one of the things I like doing the most, 555 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 2: and again this is like I mentioned, we've got our 556 00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:25,480 Speaker 2: website RTN dot tv where you can buy race replay packages. 557 00:27:26,480 --> 00:27:29,960 Speaker 2: The way that I handicap personally is I like watching 558 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:33,160 Speaker 2: replays because I think that if you watch the last 559 00:27:33,200 --> 00:27:35,800 Speaker 2: few races that a horse had, it really gives you 560 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,320 Speaker 2: an idea of what kind of talent they have, right, 561 00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:39,919 Speaker 2: And if people just want to go and have a 562 00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:41,879 Speaker 2: good time and bet, you know, ten bucks on a 563 00:27:41,920 --> 00:27:44,520 Speaker 2: horse to win. That's awesome, like pick the name or whatever. 564 00:27:44,560 --> 00:27:48,720 Speaker 2: But if you're really serious about handicapping races and winning 565 00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:52,120 Speaker 2: money at horse racing, I think that watching the replays 566 00:27:52,440 --> 00:27:55,639 Speaker 2: is very important because then you can see, hey, you 567 00:27:55,640 --> 00:27:57,480 Speaker 2: know what, this horse tried to make a move early 568 00:27:57,520 --> 00:27:59,639 Speaker 2: in the race and he got blocked off right, and 569 00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:02,439 Speaker 2: maybe that's a reason why he ran third instead of 570 00:28:02,440 --> 00:28:04,520 Speaker 2: why he might have won the race if he hadn't 571 00:28:04,520 --> 00:28:07,800 Speaker 2: have gotten blocked off right. So I think that watching 572 00:28:07,840 --> 00:28:11,280 Speaker 2: the races is very important. Something else that people talk 573 00:28:11,320 --> 00:28:15,159 Speaker 2: about is there's a difference between handicapping and betting. So 574 00:28:15,520 --> 00:28:18,639 Speaker 2: someone could be the best handicapper in the world, but 575 00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:21,760 Speaker 2: if they don't know how to then translate what they've 576 00:28:21,800 --> 00:28:25,720 Speaker 2: determined into specific bets, they're not going to be making money. 577 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:28,239 Speaker 2: Because there's so many different bets you can make. Right, 578 00:28:28,280 --> 00:28:30,359 Speaker 2: you can bet to win, you can bet to place, 579 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,720 Speaker 2: you can bet to show, you can bet trifectas, you 580 00:28:33,760 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 2: can bet pick fives. You know, trifecta's the top three 581 00:28:37,040 --> 00:28:40,080 Speaker 2: horses in one race. Pick five is the winner of 582 00:28:40,080 --> 00:28:42,560 Speaker 2: five straight races. So there's all these different kinds of 583 00:28:43,040 --> 00:28:46,120 Speaker 2: bets you can do. I think that you people need 584 00:28:46,200 --> 00:28:50,280 Speaker 2: to focus on what their strengths are. So some people like, 585 00:28:50,320 --> 00:28:54,160 Speaker 2: I'm pretty good at bett handicapping races on the grass, right, 586 00:28:54,360 --> 00:28:57,320 Speaker 2: so theoretically I should be betting more of my bank 587 00:28:57,440 --> 00:29:01,760 Speaker 2: role on races on the grass. And just like any 588 00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:05,960 Speaker 2: form of gambling, the key to making money is being 589 00:29:06,000 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 2: disciplined and waiting for good opportunities. And so we're talking 590 00:29:09,440 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 2: about the Derby, and everyone's gonna bet on the Derby. 591 00:29:12,360 --> 00:29:14,960 Speaker 2: It's not always the best race to bet on because 592 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:17,400 Speaker 2: there's so many variables. It's one of the best races 593 00:29:17,400 --> 00:29:19,760 Speaker 2: to bet on because the money that you can win 594 00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:22,320 Speaker 2: is so big. You could hit a super fecta in 595 00:29:22,360 --> 00:29:25,680 Speaker 2: the Derby and pay off your house, like we're talking 596 00:29:25,920 --> 00:29:30,400 Speaker 2: big time money, right, But it's just very unpredictable. Like 597 00:29:30,640 --> 00:29:32,800 Speaker 2: you could do the best job in the world at 598 00:29:32,840 --> 00:29:35,280 Speaker 2: handicapping the race. You could figure out that there's a 599 00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:38,760 Speaker 2: forty to one horse who's gonna win, and you're convinced 600 00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:42,040 Speaker 2: of it, and that horse might then get blocked three 601 00:29:42,080 --> 00:29:44,800 Speaker 2: different times in the race and you don't win, you know, 602 00:29:45,360 --> 00:29:48,280 Speaker 2: and hey, you know what's it's just kind of horse 603 00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:48,880 Speaker 2: racing luck. 604 00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:50,960 Speaker 1: So it's the unpredictability of it all. 605 00:29:51,000 --> 00:29:53,120 Speaker 2: But I would tell people if they really want to 606 00:29:53,160 --> 00:29:55,959 Speaker 2: be serious about you know, is go and watch it, 607 00:29:56,360 --> 00:29:59,120 Speaker 2: you know, go and watch the prep races that these 608 00:29:59,160 --> 00:30:01,880 Speaker 2: horses ran in and make your own decisions on which 609 00:30:01,880 --> 00:30:03,120 Speaker 2: horses you think are the best. 610 00:30:03,960 --> 00:30:06,080 Speaker 1: Now, before I let you go here, Dan, you have 611 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:08,520 Speaker 1: to tell me who is winning the derby. 612 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:15,120 Speaker 2: So I think that Tiba is the most talented horse 613 00:30:15,160 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 2: in the race. And if you put a gun to 614 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,400 Speaker 2: my head and said who's gonna win, I would go 615 00:30:20,440 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 2: with Tiba. It's a question that I don't love because 616 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:27,080 Speaker 2: the way that I bet is, you know, I'll probably 617 00:30:27,120 --> 00:30:29,960 Speaker 2: be hopefully be alive to five or six horses to 618 00:30:30,120 --> 00:30:34,920 Speaker 2: close out a big pick five or pick six, and 619 00:30:35,000 --> 00:30:37,840 Speaker 2: so again in a twenty horse race, I can't guarantee 620 00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:41,720 Speaker 2: you who's gonna win, but exactly it's but I would 621 00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:44,479 Speaker 2: say Tiba would be my top pick. And then I 622 00:30:44,520 --> 00:30:48,479 Speaker 2: think that charge It and Crown Pride and Messier and 623 00:30:48,480 --> 00:30:50,640 Speaker 2: Cybernife for horses that people should look at too. 624 00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,200 Speaker 1: And that's an important thing there. You're gonna have a 625 00:30:53,240 --> 00:30:56,760 Speaker 1: diverse portfolio going to this race. You're gonna have ways 626 00:30:56,760 --> 00:30:58,720 Speaker 1: that you're gonna be able to lock in a profit 627 00:30:59,120 --> 00:31:02,400 Speaker 1: based on five or six horses coming out on top here, 628 00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:04,880 Speaker 1: I have to ask you who's gonna win because that Yeah, yeah, 629 00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:07,520 Speaker 1: of course, of course, so I'm gonna go with type. 630 00:31:08,280 --> 00:31:10,920 Speaker 1: All right, Well, there you have it, guys, Dan, thank 631 00:31:10,920 --> 00:31:13,600 Speaker 1: you so much for joining me here today. Where can 632 00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,720 Speaker 1: people find you and all the great work that you're doing. 633 00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:19,680 Speaker 2: Yeah, so folks can follow me on Twitter at D 634 00:31:19,920 --> 00:31:23,840 Speaker 2: Silver eighty eight and I mainly tweet about horse racing 635 00:31:24,120 --> 00:31:27,240 Speaker 2: and hockey. I'm a big Flyers fan and a little 636 00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:29,200 Speaker 2: bit of poker, so those are kind of like my 637 00:31:29,400 --> 00:31:32,120 Speaker 2: loves there, my sports loves, horse racing, hockey, and poker. 638 00:31:32,200 --> 00:31:35,400 Speaker 2: So if you want to follow me at D Silver 639 00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:38,200 Speaker 2: eighty eight and Thomas really great to be on the show. 640 00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:40,400 Speaker 2: It's a great show. I really appreciate you having me off. 641 00:31:41,160 --> 00:31:43,200 Speaker 1: Thank you so much for joining us today. I really 642 00:31:43,240 --> 00:31:46,320 Speaker 1: appreciate the time. And best of luck on the Derby 643 00:31:46,360 --> 00:31:49,080 Speaker 1: this weekend. And guys, best of luck to you all 644 00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:51,440 Speaker 1: on the Derby, Best of luck with all of your bets. 645 00:31:51,640 --> 00:31:54,960 Speaker 1: We will be back here tomorrow. I'm gonna be talking 646 00:31:55,000 --> 00:31:58,720 Speaker 1: some UFC with Lou Finichiaro. Gonna be another great show, 647 00:31:58,760 --> 00:32:00,720 Speaker 1: so be sure to tune back in for that. In 648 00:32:00,760 --> 00:32:03,400 Speaker 1: the meantime, you can follow Dan on Twitter at d 649 00:32:03,560 --> 00:32:06,560 Speaker 1: silver eighty eight. Like you said, follow me at TV 650 00:32:06,720 --> 00:32:09,640 Speaker 1: at work, and as always, let's cash some tickets, guys,