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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up?

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Speaker 1: Straight Fire? Fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. It's straight fire.

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Speaker 1: It's Thursday, September nine, the beginning of the NFL season.

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Speaker 1: We got football. Gosh, I'm fired up. Buccaneers hosted the Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: We will dive deep into that with our guest, but

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Speaker 1: main man t A. If you guys have listened to

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Speaker 1: my radio show on Saturdays, which I no longer do.

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Speaker 1: By the way, T has been coming on probably about

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Speaker 1: four or five years. I'd bring him on. We chop

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Speaker 1: up our five picks for what we used to do,

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Speaker 1: the super contest, Now I'm doing a circuit contest. Uh.

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Speaker 1: He's a great guy. He's not really hiding, hiding in

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Speaker 1: plain sight if you will, because he has a real

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Speaker 1: job in finance. Super smart guy. Brings a different analytical

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Speaker 1: bent to some NFL stuff. So we have a great interview.

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Speaker 1: It's a little long, but if you like gambling week

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Speaker 1: one season long stuff, dig into it, have fun with it.

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Speaker 1: Before we get to the interview, news and notes number

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Speaker 1: one USA Soccer, What an amazing rally, just an incredible

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Speaker 1: uh second half down one nothing to Honduras. The sky

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Speaker 1: was literally falling. It was down. The sky was falling

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Speaker 1: in Honduras. Um. The USA was trailing. I was like,

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Speaker 1: oh my gosh, we're gonna miss the World Cup again.

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Speaker 1: Should we leave Burr Halter the coach in Honduras? And

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Speaker 1: they explode for four goals in the second half, and

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Speaker 1: remember three of them were after police went down. Policies

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Speaker 1: are best player after he went down with an injury,

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Speaker 1: and Honduras turned into well Honduras, which is not like

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Speaker 1: a soccer franchise. I think they've um made three World

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Speaker 1: Cups in their career, um, not their career, but their existence,

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Speaker 1: and they've scored a total of three goals. Um. It's

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Speaker 1: an uphill climb for Honduras. But for a half they

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Speaker 1: looked incredible. It's basically like you're facing a better team

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Speaker 1: and you go all out, expend all your energy in

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Speaker 1: the first half and your gas, and they looked at

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Speaker 1: the second after USA took over. The kid Peppy eighteen

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Speaker 1: years old and MLS player, I think for FC Dallas,

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Speaker 1: dude was awesome. I mean he had a great goal

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Speaker 1: to take the lead and he had an assist when

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Speaker 1: they went up three one. Just a great result for

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Speaker 1: one huge win. USA Soccer is back. Final note, and

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Speaker 1: this is selfish and you will not care whatsoever before

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Speaker 1: we get to t A. So I had played in

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Speaker 1: my usual pickup basketball game Wednesday and I was having

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Speaker 1: a good day. And you know, we lose the first game. Uh,

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Speaker 1: and we're winning the second game. And you guys know

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Speaker 1: my style as a guard. I like to play outside.

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Speaker 1: I don't like to go inside. I'm not one of

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Speaker 1: these guys rough housing. I'm not collecting a ton of

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Speaker 1: rebounds if I'm inside and somebody's gonna score if it

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Speaker 1: we're playing outdoors, I'm letting them score. I'm not doing

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Speaker 1: the hard foul. You know. I'm just not doing that.

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Speaker 1: And I don't like to mix it up inside. So

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Speaker 1: I got it by a guy who's a buddy of mine,

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Speaker 1: known him for a few years. Um. He's a former

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Speaker 1: quarterback in high school, played a lot of high school basketball,

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Speaker 1: like a really good athlete. Um. And I like guarding

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Speaker 1: because I'm quicker than them. So I get open threes.

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Speaker 1: A lot of the other guys they're hugging up on

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Speaker 1: me and you know, not giving me any airspace. Um.

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Speaker 1: And then put the problem is on the other side

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Speaker 1: of the court. He goes down and post up, and

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Speaker 1: I'm always like trying to get the switch with someone.

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Speaker 1: So he has a ball and I get my arm

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Speaker 1: in there to try to tie it up or pop

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Speaker 1: it loose. And as my memory has it, and I

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Speaker 1: may have a concussion at this point, I don't know,

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Speaker 1: I jar it loose and then the ball kind of

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Speaker 1: pops up and he whirls around to get it and

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Speaker 1: I catch an elbow right in the eye. Um and um.

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Speaker 1: Now his memory was he was felled by three guys

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Speaker 1: at the same time. But um that who cares whatever,

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Speaker 1: it doesn't really matter. Um. And instantly I just felt boom,

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Speaker 1: you know, and I go down. I don't hit my

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Speaker 1: head on the ground, but I knew instantly. I put

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Speaker 1: my hands in my face and as I put it away,

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Speaker 1: I could feel drops coming off my arm, Like, oh damn,

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Speaker 1: I'm bleeding. So I run inside grab some ice. Uh uh.

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Speaker 1: And you know, my initial read is all right, you know,

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Speaker 1: maybe it's just a cut. And then I look in

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Speaker 1: the mirror and I'm like, fudge, I need stitches. That's

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Speaker 1: definitely open. So I go outside and the guy's like,

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Speaker 1: to do you are you okay? What's going on. I

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Speaker 1: show one guy. He's like, oh, you might need glue

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Speaker 1: or stitches or both. Uh. So the wife calls up.

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Speaker 1: I didn't want to go to the er um just

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Speaker 1: because that can take forever. So we just called like

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Speaker 1: a local plastic surgeon who could quickly stitch it up

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Speaker 1: um six ditches later, and I'm fine. Just you know, Uh,

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Speaker 1: if I go on the herd Friday, which I think

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Speaker 1: I will, uh, you may see a little bit of

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Speaker 1: a shiner. I'll probably try to tell a cooler story,

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Speaker 1: like I thwarted a robbery and took someone out and

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Speaker 1: I caught an elbow in the process. But I'm fine.

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Speaker 1: You know, six stitches posted a little bit about it

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Speaker 1: on Instagram. You don't care. Let's get to the NFL

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Speaker 1: fun interview with my main man t A. You know,

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Speaker 1: guy Jason likes to think he knows everything when it

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Speaker 1: comes to sports. I know what sports dance want, but

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Speaker 1: for everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does.

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Speaker 1: Let's just say I know a guy who knows a

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Speaker 1: guy he knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into

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Speaker 1: straight fire. A guy I've known now via the Internet

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Speaker 1: and uh text message at social media for about I

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Speaker 1: don't know, five six years, and he's kind of a

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Speaker 1: man of mystery, um, but not really to me. UM.

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Speaker 1: And we've had these guys on the show who don't

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Speaker 1: want to really put their name out there because they've

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Speaker 1: got another life and stuff going on. And UM, this

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Speaker 1: guy you if you follow NFL gambling, you know him.

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Speaker 1: He I call him t A uh t A. How

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Speaker 1: are you man? Good? Jason? How are you say it's

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Speaker 1: only five six years? I think it's like ten years,

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Speaker 1: is it really? Yeah? Yeah, it's it's been you know,

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Speaker 1: I remember because I tell people you're kind of the

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Speaker 1: one who launched me, so I'm forever grateful. I think

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Speaker 1: it was it was about Twitter at the beginning of Twitter,

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Speaker 1: probably ten years ago, and I probably had thirty followers

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Speaker 1: at the time, just like people that I knew, and

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Speaker 1: I think you had you had thrown out you know,

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Speaker 1: your your own site, you're your old site. You said, hey,

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Speaker 1: anybody got some winning college football picks? And I think

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Speaker 1: I tossed out a couple. They all won. And then

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Speaker 1: he said he said the next day, any anybody got

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Speaker 1: you got any NFL picks? I said, yeah, here are

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Speaker 1: a few, And I think I went like five and

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Speaker 1: one and you're like, wow, you retweeted it and I

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Speaker 1: got a bunch of followers that day and just ever

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Speaker 1: since then, I think we've gone back and forth and

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Speaker 1: I've been on your show a bunch of times. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: that was like ten years ago. It's crazy. Wow that

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Speaker 1: that shows how quickly time goes. So I know, I

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Speaker 1: started the radio show I was Guessing five or six

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Speaker 1: years ago, and we did gambling back then, it wasn't

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Speaker 1: huge in mainstream. I don't know if there were a

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Speaker 1: that any gambling podcast were there like six years ago.

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Speaker 1: There was probably like the Bill Simmons maybe, but there

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Speaker 1: was like one or two really that that was gambling relatively. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you it's weird. I don't think of gambling Bill Simmons

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Speaker 1: at all in the least like is he is he

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Speaker 1: a gambler? Does he have good information like I've never

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Speaker 1: I don't know. It's it's more he he discussed it

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Speaker 1: mainstream where it wasn't really a discussed um. We talked

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Speaker 1: about some of his bets he made and kind of

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Speaker 1: did weekly bet you know, I guess the lines type

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Speaker 1: of stuff. So you know information or you know you

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Speaker 1: can you can argue whether it's good information out but

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Speaker 1: he did at least discuss it. But yeah, you're you're one.

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Speaker 1: You're definitely uh, one of the few who did a

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Speaker 1: few years ago. Yeah, and that would be better if

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Speaker 1: I could cash in the big million dollar contest in Vegas.

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Speaker 1: So t A. It used to come on my Saturday

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Speaker 1: radio show and we go through our picks for what

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Speaker 1: was then the Super Contest. Now the big one is

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Speaker 1: Circle where the pay out as four million dollars. So

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Speaker 1: I've entered this year, he has entered. I'm sifting through

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Speaker 1: my week one picks. We'll do those in a little bit.

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Speaker 1: But Teah, it just wanted quick. Like with the gambling,

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Speaker 1: there's so many people out there now who just claim,

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Speaker 1: oh I got I got the best information. I know this,

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Speaker 1: I'm a gambler, and they just post all this whatever

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Speaker 1: stuff and no it's not really verified. Uh, and anybody

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Speaker 1: can say, oh I hit, and it's like nobody really

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Speaker 1: looks to confirm anything. Everybody's just looking for the cloud.

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Speaker 1: But from what I saw in you, you had good

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Speaker 1: information that you weren't seeing everywhere else. If you see

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Speaker 1: someone say basically oh yeah, points per game and yards

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Speaker 1: per game it's like that was ten fifteen years ago,

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Speaker 1: and like that is a little silly. We're in the

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Speaker 1: advanced state though, Like d v o A matters. A

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Speaker 1: lot of the stuff you did with war and Sharp

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Speaker 1: over the last couple of years matters for your information

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Speaker 1: and process. Just talk us through like week one, like

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Speaker 1: how you approach, I don't know. You can take bucks

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Speaker 1: cowboys if you want. Yeah, I mean, I think there

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Speaker 1: is a lot of bad information out there. I think

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Speaker 1: with the good news is that you know, gamblers were

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Speaker 1: mainstream and people are talking about it, and you've got

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Speaker 1: NFL network I think is now scrolling odds the bottom

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Speaker 1: of their screening for the first time, so it's it's

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Speaker 1: talked about. But really there's some bad information. I mean

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Speaker 1: it's when I say bad, I mean nothing that matters.

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Speaker 1: It's it's kind of general, kind of vague and doesn't

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Speaker 1: really move the needle and doesn't really help you much.

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Speaker 1: I mean, you know, these lines are incorporated all that information.

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Speaker 1: And I think where I try to take a good

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Speaker 1: approach is, you know, trying to be as contrarian as possible,

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Speaker 1: because I think you win by being as contrarian and

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Speaker 1: um level headed as possible. UM, don't fall into recency bias,

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Speaker 1: don't you know that. You've got to know that the

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Speaker 1: books are almost always shading, um, the favorites a little

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Speaker 1: bit higher than they should, because they know that the

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Speaker 1: public likes to take the favorites and the overs and

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Speaker 1: so UM. You know, just be careful of those things,

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Speaker 1: those types of things, and be mindful of that. But really,

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Speaker 1: you know, for like a week one, there's not much

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Speaker 1: to go off of, right, Like, these teams change from

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Speaker 1: year to year, Personnel change, coaches change change, and so

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Speaker 1: try to pay attention to what's being said in the media,

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Speaker 1: how coaches have run maybe, um, if you've got a

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Speaker 1: new defensive coach or new offensive coach, how they run

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Speaker 1: things at the prior stops, um. But for week one too,

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Speaker 1: just what are some of the week one trends? I mean,

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Speaker 1: home dogs have always been a good trend on week one.

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Speaker 1: You know, the market just doesn't know enough and you're

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Speaker 1: going off of last year's data. UM, so taking you know,

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Speaker 1: teams that didn't make the playoffs versus teams that didn't

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Speaker 1: make the playoffs have historically done well. So those types

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Speaker 1: of things, I think, UM are impactful And for me,

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Speaker 1: where I think my value add and where I've seen

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Speaker 1: an edge that you don't see in the mainstream. Um

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Speaker 1: is I look at two things. One, I think when

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Speaker 1: looking at some of the numbers, some of the stats there,

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Speaker 1: you know, there are clear splits between how teams fare

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Speaker 1: against specific types of you know, offenses or defenses. You know, um,

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Speaker 1: what type of schedule have they played? You know, if

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Speaker 1: you're you know, one of the top five or ten defenses,

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Speaker 1: have you played an easy schedule? Like that matters? And

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Speaker 1: it's vice versas, so you've gotta be mindful of that.

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Speaker 1: And for me, the other thing is injuries. And it's

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Speaker 1: not just you know, who's the quarterback, who's the receiver,

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Speaker 1: it's being hurt like that's all. Everyone knows all that stuff, right,

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Speaker 1: That information is easy to find. It's digging into who

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Speaker 1: the left guard is, who is questionable? Right? And is

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Speaker 1: it a valuable player on the offensive line? Is a

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Speaker 1: cluster injuries that that are going to affect the teams.

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Speaker 1: You have multiple injuries in the secondary or um against

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Speaker 1: the you know, the offensive or defensive line, those types

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Speaker 1: of things which don't really move the needle, I think,

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Speaker 1: um in the mainstream, but those are things that really

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Speaker 1: really impact um to me an edge, whether you pick

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Speaker 1: you know, a side or a total. So it's funny

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Speaker 1: you mentioned injuries and secondary. The The thing is here,

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Speaker 1: a lot of people don't have the time or the

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Speaker 1: bandwidth or really the interest to look through and basically

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Speaker 1: read almost every team's injury report like Wednesday, Thursday, Friday.

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Speaker 1: You've got to do that, right, Like I saw that

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Speaker 1: Trey Willin's is not going to be playing for the Bengals,

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Speaker 1: uh in the opener against the Vikings. So I look

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Speaker 1: at the quarterback cornerback depth Chartisy, oh my gosh, Eli

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Speaker 1: Apple A Woozier, uh, Mike Hinton or Hilton and you

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Speaker 1: start looking, oh, who are they going against? Delon and Jefferson?

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Speaker 1: And I I had kind of wanted to take a

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Speaker 1: bite to the Bengals, like you said, home dog, but

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Speaker 1: I'm like, no way. The over really is the only

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Speaker 1: play for me in Vikings Bengals. And I know that's

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Speaker 1: not the gay people are gonna care about, but it

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Speaker 1: looks like the numbers starting to take up. This feels like, uh,

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Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe you disagree. Thirty seven thirty one.

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Speaker 1: We know the Bengals are gonna keep it close with Burrow. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: you know, I haven't dug into that game as much,

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Speaker 1: so I can't give us specific uh you know, recommendation

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Speaker 1: or whatnot. But yeah, and generally you're right. And it's

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Speaker 1: not even just you know who's out, it's who's behind

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Speaker 1: that person. So it might be just be kind of

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Speaker 1: a you know, a decent player, a decent cornerback, right,

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Speaker 1: a veteran who's kind of you know, right around that

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Speaker 1: you know, average mark. But then you look and oh,

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Speaker 1: their backup is an undrafted free agent you know, uh,

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Speaker 1: purely had any snaps, right, And then it's like, okay,

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Speaker 1: well the nickel corner is also dinged up, and so

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Speaker 1: now you've got to you know, two backups playing. It's

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Speaker 1: you know, it's the cumulative effect of um, you know,

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Speaker 1: working on you know what, how that's going to impact

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Speaker 1: the defense and how the the offense attacks. I mean,

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Speaker 1: it's not just you know, who is out for one side,

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Speaker 1: it's how can the other side take advantage? And do

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Speaker 1: they have the players? Do they have to match up

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Speaker 1: to do that? And do they have the coaching staff

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Speaker 1: was willing to do that? Um, you know that that

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Speaker 1: those are the things that I think are are important.

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Speaker 1: And like for me last year, I remember, I think

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Speaker 1: it was Week two or week three, the Raiders are

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Speaker 1: playing in New England, um, and I took New England

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Speaker 1: pretty heavy and for me, and one reason was because

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Speaker 1: the Raiders had multiple injuries on the offensive line. Uh

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Speaker 1: and the backup, I think it was for Richie Incognito,

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Speaker 1: who's you know, good offensive lineman. The backup was a

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Speaker 1: late round pick at a Clemson and he had played

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Speaker 1: the prior game maybe like twenty snaps thirty snaps against

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Speaker 1: the Saints, and he had given up like five or

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Speaker 1: six pressures, like he was completely and I think PFF

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Speaker 1: gave him like one of the worst grades that could

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Speaker 1: possibly give him. And to me, I was like WHOA,

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Speaker 1: Like that's a huge drop off from an all pro

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Speaker 1: type in in Cognito to a rookie you know who

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Speaker 1: has struggled. You know, those types of things matter, but

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Speaker 1: that's not reflected in the line. And so um, again

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Speaker 1: it's it's knowing who's out, knowing who's behind that player,

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Speaker 1: and then knowing can the other side really take advantage?

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Speaker 1: And so those things are key. Let me look at

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Speaker 1: a t a game that's kind of interesting I I

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Speaker 1: really like one side, but it doesn't look like the

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Speaker 1: lines going my way. Have you looked at Dolphins Patriots.

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Speaker 1: You've got the rookie starter in Mac Jones against a

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Speaker 1: good Miami Dolphins defense last year, especially in the secondary.

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Speaker 1: But as someone I know who likes to dig deeper,

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Speaker 1: I seem to remember us disagreeing on the Dolphins a

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Speaker 1: lot last year because they had been lucky with the turnovers,

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Speaker 1: with the special teams. And I mean, listen, this uh

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Speaker 1: Patriots offense is going to be versatile. Ta You know,

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Speaker 1: they got the two tight ends John H. Smith, Hunter Henry,

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Speaker 1: they got a rejuvenated ground game, and like, I know,

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Speaker 1: it's Mac Jones as a rookie, but this guy turns

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Speaker 1: twenty three this week. He's not like some twenty one

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Speaker 1: year old like Zach Wilson. Um. I don't know. I

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Speaker 1: really like the Patriots here, um U in the opener?

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Speaker 1: Am I crazy? No, it's tough to I don't have

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Speaker 1: a side on this one, but I mean it's tough to. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, it's not to back a rookie quarterback like

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Speaker 1: Mac Jones as a favorite. You know, to me, Miami's

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Speaker 1: an interest, such an interesting team this year maybe the

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Speaker 1: most interesting team because yeah, you're right. We we definitely

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Speaker 1: disagreed last year because all my numbers kept saying, like

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Speaker 1: the turnovers, you know, Miami's defense on the yards for

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Speaker 1: play basis there were twenty four in the NFL. Not good,

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Speaker 1: but they were top ten and all the the E

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Speaker 1: p A metrics and things like that, because they had

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Speaker 1: the highest number of t and over as if they

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Speaker 1: created um that turned into big plays in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: and those are things that you're just hard to replicate.

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Speaker 1: I mean, it's one thing to get a you know,

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Speaker 1: recover a fumble, another thing to take that fumble back

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Speaker 1: on a on a strip sack, you know, like they

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Speaker 1: did against Jared Golf in the Rams for a touchdown,

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Speaker 1: you know, taking pick six is back for a touchdown.

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Speaker 1: Like they were doing that continuously and so it was

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Speaker 1: masking really that their defense was below average. So you know,

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Speaker 1: can that continue? Like I don't think so, um, but

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Speaker 1: you know, I think the offensively they're gonna they're gonna

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Speaker 1: improve enough. I think too was gonna have I Well,

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Speaker 1: it's a leap of faith, but you always have to

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Speaker 1: make that leap of faith, right, Like if we knew too,

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Speaker 1: was gonna be really good. They wouldn't be three point underdogs,

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Speaker 1: right like they would be three or four point favorites.

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Speaker 1: So you have to take a leap of faith, like

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Speaker 1: this guy is still top five prospect coming out right.

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Speaker 1: He came off of a major injury UM and had

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Speaker 1: no offseason last year, went into an offense that had

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Speaker 1: I think it was a Chan Gailey. He was the

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Speaker 1: offensive coordinated the third offensive coordinator this year in three

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Speaker 1: years for yeah, and Chan Gailey is you know, he's

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Speaker 1: passed his prime. Like he's not a guy who you

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Speaker 1: know is really built for this um type of NFL.

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Speaker 1: He had Ryan, I mean he expected Ryan Fitzpatrick to

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Speaker 1: be his quarterback and Taylor an offense just for him.

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Speaker 1: Uh and two again, no offseason, off and injury, and

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Speaker 1: he had no weapons. That offensive line wasn't very good

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Speaker 1: and those you know, they had no weapons outside of

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Speaker 1: Davantae Parker. So it's a it was a tough set

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Speaker 1: up for him. So I think now that they got

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Speaker 1: Jalen Widdle here in the mix, I mean, Will Fuller

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Speaker 1: is gonna miss this game, but in general, I think

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Speaker 1: that's gonna add some big plays. Um. I think that

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Speaker 1: they've got, they've got a much easier schedule of opposing

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Speaker 1: past defenses, which is going to help him out. But

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Speaker 1: if you look at his e p A per drop

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Speaker 1: back from you know, advanced metric standpoint in the NFL,

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Speaker 1: not good. But historically, like compared to other rookies, he

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Speaker 1: was kind of middle of the pack. It just it

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Speaker 1: just looks worse because you're comparing him to Justin Herbert,

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Speaker 1: who had maybe the best season of all time. So

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Speaker 1: I think in general, like for me an angle, um

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Speaker 1: with the Dolphins early on, is gonna be take in

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Speaker 1: their overs. Um. I haven't really even this one yet,

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Speaker 1: but I think yeah, because the combination of if that

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Speaker 1: if I'm right, and that defense is not going to

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Speaker 1: force the same number of turnovers that they did last year,

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Speaker 1: they should give up a lot more points, right because

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Speaker 1: they're not gonna be able to to end drive on

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Speaker 1: those turnovers, So they should give up more points than

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Speaker 1: you would expect. And then offensively, if I think that

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Speaker 1: too is going to be you know, is gonna improve

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Speaker 1: and they've got more weapons and they've got a better

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Speaker 1: offensive staff, they should be able to score more points.

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Speaker 1: Like it's uh to me that that's an angle that

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Speaker 1: I'm looking at, So I think that look for some

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Speaker 1: more shootouts from the Dolphins early on this year. So

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Speaker 1: that's one. UM. I don't have a position on the

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Speaker 1: side against New England, but I would look at that total. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: The weird part about this Dolphins team, Um, there was

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Speaker 1: the COVID news this week. Austin Jackson, their left tackle

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Speaker 1: looks like he's in protocols and he's listed is out

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Speaker 1: for now. Obviously that could change if he gets the

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Speaker 1: negative tests. But the left side of their line, Austin Jackson,

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Speaker 1: if he's out here will be played by replaced by

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Speaker 1: Greg who played barely at all last year's second year

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Speaker 1: guy or third year guy not very good. And it's

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Speaker 1: their left guard is Solomon Kidney. Never heard of the guy.

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Speaker 1: And that's going up against the Patriots defense that gets like,

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Speaker 1: I think four starters back. They added Jude On coming

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Speaker 1: off the edge. We know Dietrich Weis is pretty good.

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Speaker 1: They stole van Noy from the Dolphins. This Patriots defense,

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Speaker 1: are we sleeping on them? I know a guy you

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Speaker 1: know well, Adam Turnoff, who loves your stuff. We had

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Speaker 1: him on the pod. He seems very bullish on the

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Speaker 1: Patriots this year, especially their defense. Yeah, I mean that's

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Speaker 1: it's tough because they've had so much turnover and you know,

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Speaker 1: typically when you go um shopping in free agency, it's

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Speaker 1: kind of fool's gold right in the NFL, So it's

401
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Speaker 1: hard to really rely on some of those moves. I mean, yeah,

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Speaker 1: they get guys that they're familiar with back like Dante

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Speaker 1: Hi Tower and like you mentioned Van Noy. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I think the Gilmore injury is huge. I mean no

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Speaker 1: more about the second I mean, look at their second

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Speaker 1: or Jalen Mills and j C. Jackson and you're starting corners.

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Speaker 1: I'm not really thrilled with a Jalen Mills hasn't been

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Speaker 1: good for a number of years. That that's a leap

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Speaker 1: of faith. Um. I don't think they have I mean

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Speaker 1: Matt Jude and I like, but I don't think they

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Speaker 1: have edge rushers that I'm really afraid of. Um. I

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Speaker 1: think they have a decent defensive line, but they were

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Speaker 1: one of the worst in the NFL uh stopping the

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Speaker 1: run last year, so you know they can be had again.

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Speaker 1: I think the Miami offensive line is definitely their achilles heel. Um,

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Speaker 1: So if they could get the ball out quickly and

417
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Speaker 1: get it to some of their playmakers, get it to

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Speaker 1: jail and waddle. I think that, you know, that would

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Speaker 1: serve them better. Um, So, I don't know. It'll be

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Speaker 1: interesting to see. I wasn't a fan of Miami not

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Speaker 1: really improving that offensive line as much is year as

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Speaker 1: they probably should have. But you know, I'm not sure

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Speaker 1: this New England defense is going to be as great

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Speaker 1: as some suspect I think. I mean, I think they

425
00:19:40,680 --> 00:19:42,359
Speaker 1: have solid pieces. I think they're kind of the middle

426
00:19:42,359 --> 00:19:44,760
Speaker 1: of the road defense, but I'm not I'm not looking

427
00:19:44,800 --> 00:19:47,080
Speaker 1: at them without Stefan Gilmore. I think they can be

428
00:19:47,080 --> 00:19:50,000
Speaker 1: added that secondary. So I don't think think maybe you

429
00:19:50,080 --> 00:19:52,800
Speaker 1: might think. Again, it's early in the week for the circle.

430
00:19:52,840 --> 00:19:54,520
Speaker 1: The pick don't have to be in Saturday, but one

431
00:19:54,560 --> 00:19:56,880
Speaker 1: that I have definitely circled. The line is going my way,

432
00:19:56,880 --> 00:20:00,280
Speaker 1: although uh probably too much so. The Seattle Seahaw Bucks.

433
00:20:00,320 --> 00:20:03,560
Speaker 1: I know it's a home dog in Indianapolis, but all

434
00:20:03,600 --> 00:20:06,040
Speaker 1: the Russell Wilson numbers in September the last two years

435
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:08,680
Speaker 1: they're not quite my homes, but they're really good. I

436
00:20:09,040 --> 00:20:11,920
Speaker 1: just love this passing game coordinator Waldron. They stole from

437
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:15,399
Speaker 1: the rams. I mean, if I'm assuming the creativity is

438
00:20:15,440 --> 00:20:17,880
Speaker 1: gonna be back in Seattle and their aerial attack will

439
00:20:17,920 --> 00:20:20,840
Speaker 1: be dominant. Obviously the defense stinks, but I'm looking at

440
00:20:20,840 --> 00:20:24,879
Speaker 1: the Seattle side and the over uh any interest um

441
00:20:25,000 --> 00:20:27,640
Speaker 1: on either of those, you know, I'm looking at Seattle

442
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:29,960
Speaker 1: hard hopefully. UM. I have not taken it yet. I

443
00:20:29,960 --> 00:20:33,280
Speaker 1: actually did. UM. I mean I took a lot of

444
00:20:33,400 --> 00:20:36,080
Speaker 1: Indie under ten and a half and ten from a

445
00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:38,919
Speaker 1: win total perspective. I posted that back in June. That

446
00:20:39,040 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 1: was all over kind of that is before some of

447
00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:43,119
Speaker 1: the injury stuff. I just think there's a ton of

448
00:20:43,119 --> 00:20:45,600
Speaker 1: regression coming on the cold side. Again. They had the

449
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:48,679
Speaker 1: easiest schedule in the NFL last year. Um, they've benefited

450
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:51,760
Speaker 1: from um turnovers on both sides of the ball. One.

451
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:53,600
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers didn't turn it over a lot, they didn't

452
00:20:53,600 --> 00:20:55,600
Speaker 1: fumble a lot, but they cause a lot of turnovers

453
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 1: on defense. Again, that will probably regressing me. Philip Rivers,

454
00:20:58,600 --> 00:21:00,639
Speaker 1: for as much as people talk about his arm like,

455
00:21:01,040 --> 00:21:03,560
Speaker 1: he's very very safe with the ball um where he

456
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 1: was last year. So um, you know, so I'm not

457
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 1: a huge believer and Carson Wentz to come come in.

458
00:21:08,800 --> 00:21:10,800
Speaker 1: This is a guy that led the NFL has led

459
00:21:10,840 --> 00:21:14,160
Speaker 1: the NFL in fumbles since two thousand and sixteen. Um,

460
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,040
Speaker 1: I think his you know, quote unquote m v P

461
00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,159
Speaker 1: season in two thousand and seventeen with Frank Wright that

462
00:21:18,200 --> 00:21:21,800
Speaker 1: everyone keeps harping on is like that Canny returned to glory. Um,

463
00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:23,960
Speaker 1: that was a mirage. I mean, he led the NFL

464
00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:27,439
Speaker 1: by a mile in efficiency on third and fourth downds.

465
00:21:27,440 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 1: But if you look at early downs, he was in

466
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 1: the twenties and he's he hasn't replicated that third and

467
00:21:31,840 --> 00:21:34,359
Speaker 1: fourth down efficiency since. I don't think he's done anything

468
00:21:34,440 --> 00:21:36,280
Speaker 1: better than kind of middle of pack. So to me,

469
00:21:36,320 --> 00:21:38,320
Speaker 1: at best, you're looking at kind of an average quarterback.

470
00:21:38,359 --> 00:21:41,320
Speaker 1: There's no t Y Hilton. Their left tackle is who

471
00:21:41,359 --> 00:21:43,400
Speaker 1: I mean, they're they're down to their third string left

472
00:21:43,400 --> 00:21:46,320
Speaker 1: tackle with Eric Fisher not ready to go, and Sam

473
00:21:46,440 --> 00:21:49,160
Speaker 1: Heavy their backup who's out for the for this game.

474
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:51,359
Speaker 1: So you know, I've got a lot of questions on

475
00:21:51,440 --> 00:21:54,600
Speaker 1: this indie offense. I think Seattle is It's one of

476
00:21:54,600 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 1: those things that Seattle keeps every game close, so it's

477
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:58,920
Speaker 1: never gonna be easy. I don't think they're gonna blow

478
00:21:58,920 --> 00:22:01,320
Speaker 1: about um. So if you can get under three, I

479
00:22:01,359 --> 00:22:03,480
Speaker 1: think that's the probably the way to go in Seattle. Again,

480
00:22:03,480 --> 00:22:05,080
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if I'm put in the contest yet.

481
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:06,800
Speaker 1: I know it would be a popular play, and we've

482
00:22:06,800 --> 00:22:08,920
Speaker 1: gotta go through game. You know, there's some game theory

483
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 1: involved with some of this contest stuff. But I definitely

484
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,159
Speaker 1: think the right side, if you're gonna pull the trigger,

485
00:22:14,280 --> 00:22:17,000
Speaker 1: is on Seattle. I will say with the offense, you

486
00:22:17,000 --> 00:22:19,520
Speaker 1: would hope they would continue to let rust throw the ball.

487
00:22:19,560 --> 00:22:21,520
Speaker 1: I mean, I think some of the quotes I saw

488
00:22:21,560 --> 00:22:23,520
Speaker 1: from Pete Carroll in the offseason about getting back to

489
00:22:23,560 --> 00:22:26,000
Speaker 1: the basics and wanting to run the ball scares me

490
00:22:26,040 --> 00:22:28,359
Speaker 1: a little bit. I have heard good things from Shane

491
00:22:28,400 --> 00:22:31,239
Speaker 1: to Shane Waldron Um, he's a Sean McVeigh disciple, and

492
00:22:31,320 --> 00:22:33,920
Speaker 1: I think they're gonna run some more up tempo from

493
00:22:33,920 --> 00:22:36,000
Speaker 1: what I've heard, but um, you know, you kind of

494
00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:38,240
Speaker 1: remains to be seen, and you know, with Pete Carroll,

495
00:22:38,280 --> 00:22:40,200
Speaker 1: I just don't trust that he's gonna let them era out.

496
00:22:40,240 --> 00:22:43,479
Speaker 1: I think dayne Eskridge is a kind of a uh

497
00:22:43,680 --> 00:22:46,080
Speaker 1: wild card for this team. His second round pick out

498
00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:50,040
Speaker 1: of Western Michigan, smaller receiver Ran out four three eight forty.

499
00:22:50,560 --> 00:22:52,920
Speaker 1: I think he led the NFL, are led college football

500
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:58,920
Speaker 1: last year in yards per yards after contact for receiver perspective.

501
00:22:58,960 --> 00:23:01,560
Speaker 1: So she broke a lot of tackles, had a lot

502
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,280
Speaker 1: of big plays at Western Michigan. So that's a guy

503
00:23:04,320 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 1: who if he can produce some of the same things

504
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:08,920
Speaker 1: as the third receiver some of the big plays, I

505
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 1: think that's gonna really stretch the field for this offense

506
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,679
Speaker 1: and make things even better. So Um, I think overall

507
00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:17,160
Speaker 1: I am high on Seattle's offense. If they allow Ruster

508
00:23:17,480 --> 00:23:20,000
Speaker 1: to throw. You just never know. With the Carol you

509
00:23:20,040 --> 00:23:22,880
Speaker 1: mentioned Indie unders for the season, any other season long

510
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 1: things that have jumped out at you or that you bet. Yeah,

511
00:23:26,600 --> 00:23:28,280
Speaker 1: So two teams. One, I'll give you one from the

512
00:23:28,280 --> 00:23:30,040
Speaker 1: a f C. One from the NFC that I'm higher

513
00:23:30,080 --> 00:23:33,080
Speaker 1: on than I think the market one the a f C. Denver.

514
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,760
Speaker 1: Um I've been over. Denver was the first win total

515
00:23:36,840 --> 00:23:38,679
Speaker 1: I took back in February. I took a bunch of

516
00:23:38,680 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: their futures. I think I think you might have jumped

517
00:23:40,760 --> 00:23:43,240
Speaker 1: on that with me, Um, I know we message back

518
00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:45,240
Speaker 1: and forth on that. That was mainly for me. I

519
00:23:45,280 --> 00:23:47,600
Speaker 1: saw the roster. I think there was a really good roster.

520
00:23:47,880 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 1: I saw that they had a ton of injuries. Um,

521
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:51,679
Speaker 1: they still competed in a lot of games. I think

522
00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,040
Speaker 1: Vic Fangio did a nice job with that defense. Um,

523
00:23:54,240 --> 00:23:56,800
Speaker 1: they had a ton of injuries and still competed. And

524
00:23:56,840 --> 00:23:59,680
Speaker 1: they had some good receivers. Um, that's some good weapons.

525
00:23:59,720 --> 00:24:01,439
Speaker 1: And I I thought that they would be a player

526
00:24:01,440 --> 00:24:04,320
Speaker 1: for Deshaun Watson at the time. This is before Watson's

527
00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:06,159
Speaker 1: all the off the field stuff. So I thought it

528
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 1: would be good timing to get in on Denver because

529
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:10,600
Speaker 1: I thought they that's all they really needed was a quarterback.

530
00:24:11,000 --> 00:24:12,880
Speaker 1: So I took some of their I took the seventy

531
00:24:12,880 --> 00:24:15,440
Speaker 1: to one to win the Super Bowl, I think the

532
00:24:15,480 --> 00:24:16,920
Speaker 1: one that win the f C, and then I had

533
00:24:16,960 --> 00:24:19,200
Speaker 1: over seven in their winter it's up the eight and

534
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:20,840
Speaker 1: a half. I would still take it. I think this

535
00:24:20,880 --> 00:24:22,920
Speaker 1: is a playoff team. I think you could also take

536
00:24:22,960 --> 00:24:24,800
Speaker 1: you know, a little bit on to make the playoffs

537
00:24:24,840 --> 00:24:28,400
Speaker 1: at plus money um close to plus two hundred UM.

538
00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:30,560
Speaker 1: I just think that between you know, they had one.

539
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 1: They were one of the most unlucky teams due to

540
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,280
Speaker 1: injuries last year. Remember Von Miller Before the season and

541
00:24:36,280 --> 00:24:38,719
Speaker 1: out for the year. Remember they played Kendall Hinton at

542
00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,040
Speaker 1: quarterback like they had a ton of injuries. They lost

543
00:24:41,080 --> 00:24:43,520
Speaker 1: Courtland Sutton in the second game of the year. They

544
00:24:43,560 --> 00:24:45,400
Speaker 1: get all those you know, they get those guys back

545
00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 1: that Teddy Bridgewater is not gonna win you a Super Bowl,

546
00:24:48,400 --> 00:24:50,960
Speaker 1: but he's a safe, steady hand at quarterback. He was

547
00:24:51,000 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 1: seventh in completion percentage over expected number one and adjusted

548
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:59,200
Speaker 1: completion percentage on short throws. Drew Lock was thirty uh

549
00:24:59,240 --> 00:25:01,520
Speaker 1: in e p A or drop back in dead last

550
00:25:01,600 --> 00:25:04,919
Speaker 1: and completion percentage over expectation. I mean he was thirty

551
00:25:04,920 --> 00:25:07,000
Speaker 1: third and making the short throws like which is what

552
00:25:07,040 --> 00:25:08,760
Speaker 1: Teddy excels in. So all he has to do is

553
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,359
Speaker 1: distribute to Jerry Judy and those guys kJ Hammler and

554
00:25:12,400 --> 00:25:13,800
Speaker 1: I think they'll be able to compete that one of

555
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,600
Speaker 1: the easiest schedules in the NFL. UM. I mean they

556
00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:18,760
Speaker 1: had just a lot of luck go against them. I

557
00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:22,320
Speaker 1: mean opposing field goal kickers made of field goal attempts

558
00:25:22,320 --> 00:25:24,560
Speaker 1: against them, second highest in the NFL. Those are the

559
00:25:24,560 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: types of things that typically regress UM and so I

560
00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:29,919
Speaker 1: think that they're in a good spot too to go

561
00:25:29,960 --> 00:25:31,520
Speaker 1: over the win total and make the playoffs. And I

562
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:33,919
Speaker 1: think the NFC, well wait, let me just drop your

563
00:25:34,080 --> 00:25:36,480
Speaker 1: Broncos real quick. So you mentioned e p A. I

564
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:39,439
Speaker 1: would guess that there's you know, of the audience like

565
00:25:39,480 --> 00:25:42,760
Speaker 1: e p A. They just hear that UM with without

566
00:25:43,000 --> 00:25:45,560
Speaker 1: you know, breaking out the dictionary definition. Is there an

567
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:49,320
Speaker 1: easy way to just spell that out for the audience? Yes?

568
00:25:49,400 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 1: So e p A is expected points added. So essentially

569
00:25:51,880 --> 00:25:56,639
Speaker 1: it's every single play UM can create a scoring opportunity

570
00:25:56,800 --> 00:26:01,040
Speaker 1: or you know, impact negatively a scoring opportunity for a

571
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:04,200
Speaker 1: team on per drive. Right, So, and it's all based

572
00:26:04,200 --> 00:26:07,120
Speaker 1: on where you are in the field, down, in distance, time, remaining,

573
00:26:07,160 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: all those sorts of things. So you know, if you

574
00:26:09,800 --> 00:26:12,080
Speaker 1: if you get eight yards on a third and twelve

575
00:26:12,160 --> 00:26:14,639
Speaker 1: for example, yeah, the eight yards looks good, but that

576
00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,199
Speaker 1: doesn't really help you in the scheme of things as

577
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:19,720
Speaker 1: you're punning on fourth down, whereas on fourth and one,

578
00:26:19,880 --> 00:26:22,439
Speaker 1: getting two yards way more valuable even though the two

579
00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:24,040
Speaker 1: yards is less than the eight yards on just kind

580
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:27,920
Speaker 1: of an absolute old counting staff basis, um, the two

581
00:26:27,960 --> 00:26:29,679
Speaker 1: yards are way more valuable because it got you a

582
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 1: first down, it extended a drive and increase your chances

583
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:34,600
Speaker 1: of scoring on that drive. So all e p A

584
00:26:34,680 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 1: does is take every single play of an entire season

585
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: and you accumulate it, and you can do it on

586
00:26:40,080 --> 00:26:43,040
Speaker 1: a per play basis and come up with you know,

587
00:26:43,080 --> 00:26:46,159
Speaker 1: how often were you helping your team? Um, you know,

588
00:26:46,400 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 1: improve your chances of scoring and obviously winning and vice versas.

589
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:52,240
Speaker 1: So and are you are you tracking all that or

590
00:26:52,280 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: is there a website that does work? In Folks find

591
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,520
Speaker 1: e p A if readily available if they want. Yes. So,

592
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 1: Bill ben Baldwin, who's very good to follow on Twitter,

593
00:27:01,480 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 1: are very good in analytics rights for the athletic. He's

594
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:06,720
Speaker 1: got a website that he created. Um, if you look

595
00:27:06,760 --> 00:27:10,240
Speaker 1: at r B S d M dot com. So r

596
00:27:10,320 --> 00:27:14,160
Speaker 1: B S d N running backs still do matter? Yeah?

597
00:27:14,280 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 1: Maybe I don't even Actually that's a good question. I'm

598
00:27:17,080 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 1: not even sure. Um, but he uh, he created that

599
00:27:20,359 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: site and you can go through he summarizes you know,

600
00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:26,240
Speaker 1: the offense, defense, quarterbacks, um, all those sorts of things,

601
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,480
Speaker 1: and you can look at you can filter for downs

602
00:27:28,520 --> 00:27:30,399
Speaker 1: and quarters and all those sorts of things going back

603
00:27:30,440 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 1: to So he does a really nice job posting that.

604
00:27:33,119 --> 00:27:36,119
Speaker 1: But um, some of the stuff I looked at in

605
00:27:36,200 --> 00:27:41,240
Speaker 1: terms of for the last season, I kind of downloaded myself, um,

606
00:27:41,280 --> 00:27:43,280
Speaker 1: you know, using some of the computer programs that are

607
00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:45,520
Speaker 1: out there, so it gets a little advanced. But the

608
00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 1: the E p A numbers are becoming more mainstream and

609
00:27:47,760 --> 00:27:50,320
Speaker 1: that that's a good website to kind of summarize everything.

610
00:27:51,000 --> 00:27:53,919
Speaker 1: Fox Sports Radio has the best sports talk lineup in

611
00:27:53,920 --> 00:27:56,919
Speaker 1: the nation. Catch all of our shows at Fox sports

612
00:27:57,040 --> 00:28:00,440
Speaker 1: Radio dot com and within the I Heart Radio search

613
00:28:00,640 --> 00:28:03,520
Speaker 1: f s R to listen live. Before we get back

614
00:28:03,520 --> 00:28:05,639
Speaker 1: to the season long stuff, Denver opens with the Giants.

615
00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:08,119
Speaker 1: That's another game I have circled now. The only thing

616
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:10,119
Speaker 1: that's got me a little nervous is the public is

617
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:13,800
Speaker 1: on Denver. Denver's on the road and they're favored. But

618
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:16,320
Speaker 1: if you look in the trenches, t A, I mean,

619
00:28:16,320 --> 00:28:20,159
Speaker 1: the Giants are terrible. They're just signing guys desperately right

620
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,520
Speaker 1: now to help out on the offensive line. I mean,

621
00:28:22,560 --> 00:28:25,439
Speaker 1: guys that nobody else wants. UM. And meanwhile, you know

622
00:28:25,480 --> 00:28:28,080
Speaker 1: the Broncos coming with probably a top five I feel

623
00:28:28,119 --> 00:28:31,440
Speaker 1: like their defense could have snd away Washington's did last year.

624
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,119
Speaker 1: When you get when you factor and they get healthy

625
00:28:33,119 --> 00:28:37,240
Speaker 1: guys back fuller. Uh, everybody loves Patrick Certain how to

626
00:28:37,240 --> 00:28:39,400
Speaker 1: pick six in the preseason. He looks like a player.

627
00:28:39,720 --> 00:28:42,200
Speaker 1: Linebackers are one of the better groups in the league,

628
00:28:42,200 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: Like this could be a really really good defense. I

629
00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:47,880
Speaker 1: think they kind of strangled Danny Dimes in this one. Yeah,

630
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:50,240
Speaker 1: I agree. I think it's a complete mismatch in the trenches.

631
00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 1: I think, you know, with Von Miller, Back, Bradley Chubb,

632
00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:56,520
Speaker 1: Um and de Kwon Jones, they they've got a really

633
00:28:56,600 --> 00:28:59,360
Speaker 1: nice front four. Now their linebackers are a little weak.

634
00:28:59,360 --> 00:29:01,800
Speaker 1: They're in great, but you know, linebackers, of all the

635
00:29:01,800 --> 00:29:03,920
Speaker 1: things on defense that you can afford to be average

636
00:29:03,960 --> 00:29:05,840
Speaker 1: or below average on, that's the position group. But it's

637
00:29:05,880 --> 00:29:08,120
Speaker 1: really you said, the secondary is just I think they're

638
00:29:08,120 --> 00:29:10,440
Speaker 1: the best secondary or maybe the second best in the NFL.

639
00:29:11,040 --> 00:29:14,840
Speaker 1: If Patrick Certain is just decent, I mean, that's that's spectacular.

640
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:18,720
Speaker 1: You have three cornerbacks, not you know, not Patrick Certain,

641
00:29:18,800 --> 00:29:21,080
Speaker 1: three other cornerbacks that were ranked in the top thirty

642
00:29:21,080 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 1: by PFF in terms of coverage last year, Ronald Darby,

643
00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:28,280
Speaker 1: Kendall Fuller, Um and uh and obviously certained to go

644
00:29:28,320 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 1: along with them. So I mean, you've got just a

645
00:29:30,360 --> 00:29:33,640
Speaker 1: tremendous Bryce Bryce Callahan. Sorry, he's the third one. He

646
00:29:33,680 --> 00:29:35,360
Speaker 1: was a stock corner, one of the best stock corners

647
00:29:35,360 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: in the NFL. And then you've got two really good safeties.

648
00:29:37,680 --> 00:29:39,840
Speaker 1: I mean Justin Justin Simmons is one of the most

649
00:29:39,880 --> 00:29:43,960
Speaker 1: underrated defensive players in the NFL, so, um you know that.

650
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 1: And Kareem Jackson as well. So they got real really

651
00:29:45,960 --> 00:29:48,640
Speaker 1: good secondary, really really deep. I don't know, you know,

652
00:29:48,680 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 1: without Kenny Golladay was most likely going to miss this game. Like,

653
00:29:51,440 --> 00:29:53,320
Speaker 1: where did the Giants go? They've got one of the

654
00:29:53,320 --> 00:29:56,240
Speaker 1: worst offensive lines in football. They're the second lowest on

655
00:29:56,320 --> 00:29:59,760
Speaker 1: a pass blocking efficiency metric by PF. They hadn't they

656
00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:02,000
Speaker 1: didn't nothing to really improve that side of the ball.

657
00:30:02,840 --> 00:30:05,920
Speaker 1: Evan Ingram either, It sounds like, yeah, probably no Evan Ingram.

658
00:30:06,080 --> 00:30:07,800
Speaker 1: So I'm not really sure where they go with the ball.

659
00:30:07,840 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: I'm sure Denver would love it if the Giants decided

660
00:30:10,560 --> 00:30:13,160
Speaker 1: to run it with se Kwon Barkley, and I think

661
00:30:13,160 --> 00:30:15,520
Speaker 1: that's what they're gonna do. I mean, look, yeah, Jason

662
00:30:15,560 --> 00:30:17,080
Speaker 1: Garrett on the other side of the ball, Like, that's

663
00:30:17,080 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 1: not a guy that I'm scared of. From a UM,

664
00:30:19,560 --> 00:30:22,760
Speaker 1: you know, scheme perspective. This isn't Kyle Shanahan taking you know,

665
00:30:22,920 --> 00:30:26,320
Speaker 1: backups and trying to scheme guys open like Jason Garrett

666
00:30:26,360 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 1: is one of the worst offensive coordinators in the NFL.

667
00:30:28,840 --> 00:30:31,160
Speaker 1: So to me, I think it's a total mismatch. I mean,

668
00:30:31,200 --> 00:30:34,480
Speaker 1: the Giants defense is okay, but you know, teddy Bridge

669
00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:37,120
Speaker 1: Roger did face the single toughest set of opposing past

670
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 1: defenses last year in Carolina. It's well prepared. He's twenty

671
00:30:40,840 --> 00:30:43,520
Speaker 1: one in three against the spread on the road in

672
00:30:43,600 --> 00:30:46,640
Speaker 1: his career. I mean, the guy is an absolute um

673
00:30:46,680 --> 00:30:50,520
Speaker 1: covering machine. I mean, this is you know, to me,

674
00:30:50,600 --> 00:30:52,640
Speaker 1: this is one of the Again, I think I'm over

675
00:30:52,680 --> 00:30:54,920
Speaker 1: the market when it comes to Denver for the season

676
00:30:54,920 --> 00:30:57,760
Speaker 1: win total. I've got the Giants as an under. It's

677
00:30:57,800 --> 00:31:00,640
Speaker 1: one of my best bets as well at seven. So

678
00:31:00,800 --> 00:31:02,720
Speaker 1: I think this is a you know, to me, a

679
00:31:02,800 --> 00:31:06,160
Speaker 1: good a good matchup for for Denver and very worse.

680
00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:07,560
Speaker 1: They're gonna be in it till the end. It's a

681
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:09,040
Speaker 1: matter of do they cover the you know, two and

682
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:11,520
Speaker 1: a half three points or you know, is it a

683
00:31:11,600 --> 00:31:13,280
Speaker 1: you know, is it a push? Like I just don't

684
00:31:13,280 --> 00:31:15,360
Speaker 1: see them getting blown out with the Giants very well.

685
00:31:15,360 --> 00:31:18,160
Speaker 1: Could get blown out based on this matchup. Yeah, all right,

686
00:31:18,200 --> 00:31:22,640
Speaker 1: back to your season long stuff in the NFC, um

687
00:31:22,960 --> 00:31:27,320
Speaker 1: anyone jump out of you there? Yeah? I like Carolina.

688
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:29,800
Speaker 1: That is my sleeper team. A sleeper when I say,

689
00:31:29,920 --> 00:31:33,040
Speaker 1: you know, sleeper to go from not expected to do anything,

690
00:31:33,080 --> 00:31:36,800
Speaker 1: to be as essentially a wild card, uh team. And

691
00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:38,640
Speaker 1: it's really a couple of reasons. One, you know, it's

692
00:31:38,640 --> 00:31:40,520
Speaker 1: not that I think Sam Donald is gonna be great.

693
00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:44,360
Speaker 1: He's obviously been really bad with the Jets, you know this, right,

694
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:47,600
Speaker 1: but he's he's been put in such a horrible position.

695
00:31:47,600 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 1: And I hate to make an excuse, but I mean,

696
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,480
Speaker 1: not only did he have zero talent on the outside

697
00:31:52,560 --> 00:31:55,200
Speaker 1: except for you know, essentially Robbie Anderson, which, by the way,

698
00:31:55,240 --> 00:31:57,920
Speaker 1: they went eleven and fourteen in games that Robbie Anderson

699
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,960
Speaker 1: and Donald started to an eleven that's a good stad

700
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:04,680
Speaker 1: hold on. They were eleven and foign games with Donald. Sorry,

701
00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: eleven and four So still she's still under better than

702
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 1: the two and eleven. And Adam Gays was a coach, which,

703
00:32:12,600 --> 00:32:14,520
Speaker 1: oh gosh, don'ty I don't want to be reminded of

704
00:32:14,520 --> 00:32:16,680
Speaker 1: that era. Yeah, so you didn't have a lot of

705
00:32:16,720 --> 00:32:18,760
Speaker 1: weapons you had one of the worst lines in football

706
00:32:18,800 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 1: every year, you didn't have a running game, and little

707
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: things like let me give an example of like why

708
00:32:22,760 --> 00:32:25,840
Speaker 1: play calling matters. Um, it seems pretty obvious. But you know,

709
00:32:25,960 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 1: Joe Brady here at Carolina, like one of the bright

710
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:31,720
Speaker 1: young minds, you know, when it was second and six

711
00:32:32,160 --> 00:32:34,280
Speaker 1: or more to go last year? Right, So second and

712
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,720
Speaker 1: long the Panthers through at the highest rate in the

713
00:32:36,800 --> 00:32:38,640
Speaker 1: NFL seventy nine percent at the time, right, Like, why

714
00:32:38,680 --> 00:32:40,920
Speaker 1: would you run it? You throw the ball in that situation,

715
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,440
Speaker 1: get some even if it's a checkdown, it's better than

716
00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: running it. Gays though through it at the lowest rate

717
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:51,520
Speaker 1: in the NFL. And what did he do. He produced

718
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,440
Speaker 1: the worst success rate in the NFL when he ran it,

719
00:32:54,800 --> 00:32:58,320
Speaker 1: sixtent success rate two point six yards per carry. So

720
00:32:58,360 --> 00:33:01,200
Speaker 1: he ran the ball the most times when it was

721
00:33:01,240 --> 00:33:03,800
Speaker 1: second and long. Okay, and he did it at the

722
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:06,760
Speaker 1: worst rate in the NFL. Like, how can you possibly

723
00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:09,400
Speaker 1: think that's you know? Effect? So now Donald was sitting

724
00:33:09,440 --> 00:33:12,200
Speaker 1: here on third and long almost every time. Um, and

725
00:33:12,240 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 1: he was a sitting duck. Like that's not Donald isn't

726
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:17,080
Speaker 1: good enough to He's not Tom Brady. So he's gonna

727
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,240
Speaker 1: be put in a better situation with that alone. And

728
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,080
Speaker 1: now you've got Christian McCaffrey. You've got three really good receivers.

729
00:33:22,160 --> 00:33:25,120
Speaker 1: I love Terrence Marshall Jr. This year as their number

730
00:33:25,160 --> 00:33:27,440
Speaker 1: three receiver, the rookie from l S H. And I

731
00:33:27,480 --> 00:33:29,200
Speaker 1: mentioned some of the stats with Robbie Anderson. I mean

732
00:33:29,240 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 1: Donald was way better on the yards per attempt, on

733
00:33:31,160 --> 00:33:34,440
Speaker 1: the yards per game QB rating all that with Anderson

734
00:33:34,520 --> 00:33:36,840
Speaker 1: in the lineup, like it was even close. So you've got,

735
00:33:36,880 --> 00:33:39,000
Speaker 1: I think, a better system for Donald. Just he just

736
00:33:39,040 --> 00:33:40,960
Speaker 1: has to be average, right. And then you know, you

737
00:33:40,960 --> 00:33:42,680
Speaker 1: look at last year and the Panthers were three and

738
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:44,520
Speaker 1: eight and one score of games, but they faced the

739
00:33:44,520 --> 00:33:46,840
Speaker 1: second toughest schedule in the NFL, so you should see

740
00:33:46,840 --> 00:33:49,200
Speaker 1: some regression there in the close games. Um, they've got

741
00:33:49,240 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 1: a much easier schedule. They've got only they're only facing

742
00:33:53,120 --> 00:33:55,240
Speaker 1: four teams that are even favored to make the playoffs,

743
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 1: so Tampa twice, Buffalo and Dallas. And then here's the

744
00:33:58,080 --> 00:34:00,000
Speaker 1: little thing, the little things. I don't think it's many

745
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 1: people pay attention to. So Carolina has what they call

746
00:34:03,800 --> 00:34:06,040
Speaker 1: a net rest advantage of plus twelve and it leads

747
00:34:06,080 --> 00:34:09,360
Speaker 1: the NFL. So what's the net rest advantage? That means,

748
00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:11,600
Speaker 1: Like when you're coming off of a Sunday game and

749
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:14,040
Speaker 1: your opponents coming off of a Monday game, You've got

750
00:34:14,080 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 1: one extra day of rest, right, simple, same thing. You know,

751
00:34:17,239 --> 00:34:20,160
Speaker 1: Thursday versus a Monday, or Thursday versus a Sunday, you

752
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:23,920
Speaker 1: get multiple days rest. Accumulate that throughout the season, and

753
00:34:23,960 --> 00:34:25,759
Speaker 1: you know it adds up and may not, you know,

754
00:34:25,840 --> 00:34:27,920
Speaker 1: be huge factor in a single game, but you know,

755
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:29,920
Speaker 1: over the course of a season, it matters. And the

756
00:34:29,920 --> 00:34:32,360
Speaker 1: Panthers lead the NFL in that This year one of

757
00:34:32,360 --> 00:34:34,880
Speaker 1: the highest we've seen since two thousand two, so that's big.

758
00:34:35,040 --> 00:34:36,960
Speaker 1: They don't face a single opponent coming off of a

759
00:34:37,000 --> 00:34:40,040
Speaker 1: by all season, right, so they don't have to deal

760
00:34:40,080 --> 00:34:42,600
Speaker 1: with that, and they get to face Tampa in Week eight.

761
00:34:42,600 --> 00:34:45,360
Speaker 1: Team Tampa might be you know, cruising, like in the

762
00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 1: number one seed and they're just gonna rest everybody. So

763
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,840
Speaker 1: that might be a freebee win. That is not factor

764
00:34:49,880 --> 00:34:52,280
Speaker 1: in this line. So all those things I think really

765
00:34:52,320 --> 00:34:55,279
Speaker 1: helped play into U. I think Carolina is is a

766
00:34:55,280 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 1: sleeper team. I think they got a nice young defense.

767
00:34:57,280 --> 00:35:00,799
Speaker 1: Brian Burns j C Horne, Jeremy Chins, some really good

768
00:35:00,840 --> 00:35:03,280
Speaker 1: young players on defense. I think this is an upcoming

769
00:35:03,280 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 1: team that if Donald just doesn't screw up, I think

770
00:35:05,480 --> 00:35:08,279
Speaker 1: they can win. It's a big if. It's funny. I

771
00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:11,600
Speaker 1: tweeted out Wednesday, like I'm thinking of starting Donald over

772
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:14,600
Speaker 1: justin Herbert week one in fantasy and all these people

773
00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:17,560
Speaker 1: are like, you're an idiot. Their offensive line stinks. He's

774
00:35:17,560 --> 00:35:19,279
Speaker 1: gonna get murdered. And I was like, have you guys

775
00:35:19,320 --> 00:35:22,640
Speaker 1: seen the Jets secondary? Like I watched him last year?

776
00:35:22,719 --> 00:35:25,400
Speaker 1: Derek Carr basically threw the ball up and Daryl Waller

777
00:35:25,440 --> 00:35:27,400
Speaker 1: caught everything and then you know, obviously what happened on

778
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:29,759
Speaker 1: the end of the game caused him Trevor Lawrence. But like,

779
00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:31,880
Speaker 1: Jet secondary was terrible. And if you look at I

780
00:35:31,920 --> 00:35:35,040
Speaker 1: think the first five games for Carolina, they're the past

781
00:35:35,040 --> 00:35:38,640
Speaker 1: defenses are facing are pretty terrible. And who's I mean,

782
00:35:38,680 --> 00:35:40,400
Speaker 1: can you name all right, you're a Jets fan, right,

783
00:35:40,400 --> 00:35:42,880
Speaker 1: can you name the starting secondary? Because I've got the

784
00:35:42,880 --> 00:35:46,560
Speaker 1: starting cornerback. I think Austin who has a great name. Right,

785
00:35:46,600 --> 00:35:49,360
Speaker 1: everybody knew this is sad. I have to actually go

786
00:35:49,440 --> 00:35:51,080
Speaker 1: to the tab and I have all the depth charts

787
00:35:51,120 --> 00:35:53,680
Speaker 1: like I have it on a favorite. So I'll go

788
00:35:53,719 --> 00:36:00,239
Speaker 1: through the secondary Jets, right you have to blindly oh boy,

789
00:36:00,440 --> 00:36:05,200
Speaker 1: uh rookie. Oh sorry, not tun but you have six

790
00:36:05,280 --> 00:36:08,320
Speaker 1: round rookie Brandon Eacles from Kentucky. Okay, six round rookie.

791
00:36:08,560 --> 00:36:10,960
Speaker 1: You've got two secondary guys, Bryce Hall was a fifth

792
00:36:11,000 --> 00:36:13,400
Speaker 1: round pick last year and Javelin Gindury, who was an

793
00:36:13,440 --> 00:36:16,120
Speaker 1: undrafted fee you've never heard of him. Yeah, Hall was

794
00:36:16,760 --> 00:36:19,680
Speaker 1: fifteen out of a well he was a quick word

795
00:36:19,680 --> 00:36:22,720
Speaker 1: on Hall, so he was I believe a five star guy. Um.

796
00:36:22,800 --> 00:36:25,440
Speaker 1: And then he had a couple back to back knee injuries,

797
00:36:25,480 --> 00:36:27,919
Speaker 1: so he's not what he once was. But the potentials there.

798
00:36:28,320 --> 00:36:30,440
Speaker 1: And again I know the Jet secondary is awful. I'm

799
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:33,759
Speaker 1: my hope is that Sala can scheme up something with

800
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:36,200
Speaker 1: that defensive line. Would have been easier with Lawson, but

801
00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:38,879
Speaker 1: with Rankins and Williams if they can get anything off

802
00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:41,239
Speaker 1: the edge with the guys in the middle. Um, by

803
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:44,080
Speaker 1: the way, they're starting a kid at linebacker. Um, the

804
00:36:44,239 --> 00:36:46,799
Speaker 1: kid Nissarel La Dean. I think I'm saying his name wrong.

805
00:36:47,160 --> 00:36:49,440
Speaker 1: He's a rookie out of f s U. Another guy

806
00:36:49,480 --> 00:36:53,080
Speaker 1: who was like a huge recruit but had an injury

807
00:36:53,320 --> 00:36:55,640
Speaker 1: and kind of meant like out of the bargain basement

808
00:36:55,640 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: bin bottom line, I'm going too deep on the jets

809
00:36:57,600 --> 00:37:00,719
Speaker 1: crappy defense. But uh, you're right, Darnald is going to

810
00:37:00,719 --> 00:37:04,200
Speaker 1: torch him um in in Week one. Yeah, I mean,

811
00:37:04,520 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 1: as you mentioned, there's two starting linebackers for the Jets.

812
00:37:07,040 --> 00:37:09,319
Speaker 1: I look, I'm looking at our lads. One's a fifth

813
00:37:09,400 --> 00:37:11,479
Speaker 1: round pick, one's a six round pick that's started. Okay,

814
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:14,759
Speaker 1: you've got a starting corner, Brandon Echoes a six round pick. Right,

815
00:37:15,000 --> 00:37:17,960
Speaker 1: You've got multiple guys. There are two backups in the corner.

816
00:37:18,000 --> 00:37:21,799
Speaker 1: In the secondary are also rookies. Like this is an

817
00:37:21,960 --> 00:37:25,680
Speaker 1: unproven secondary, say the least end linebacking corps and I

818
00:37:25,680 --> 00:37:27,279
Speaker 1: think you know you got the linebacking corpy, got a

819
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:29,400
Speaker 1: couple of rookies after the defend Christian McAffrey out of

820
00:37:29,400 --> 00:37:32,600
Speaker 1: the backfield, and you've got three stud receivers. I think

821
00:37:32,680 --> 00:37:35,759
Speaker 1: Terris Marshall Jr. Could really for DFS people out there.

822
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:38,919
Speaker 1: He's at the minimum on DraftKings, Like that's a guy

823
00:37:38,960 --> 00:37:40,319
Speaker 1: that I would take a shot at because I think

824
00:37:40,320 --> 00:37:42,640
Speaker 1: he's gonna be going it up against. You're a big

825
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 1: DFS guy, how do you juggle fantasy gambling in DFS? Well,

826
00:37:47,040 --> 00:37:48,880
Speaker 1: so you know, and we can talk about you know,

827
00:37:48,960 --> 00:37:51,200
Speaker 1: my site that I've got up now, but um, you know,

828
00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:53,160
Speaker 1: I think it all goes hand in hand. You just

829
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 1: have to be able to kind of separate yourself when

830
00:37:55,000 --> 00:37:57,320
Speaker 1: it comes to the gambling sometimes versus the DFS and

831
00:37:57,360 --> 00:37:59,960
Speaker 1: the fantasy Because I'm doing in game gambling too, I've

832
00:38:00,000 --> 00:38:02,279
Speaker 1: think you probably are as well. Right, you know, I

833
00:38:02,320 --> 00:38:04,719
Speaker 1: do like second half lines and in some in in

834
00:38:04,800 --> 00:38:08,479
Speaker 1: game stuff, but um you know, I'm not as deep

835
00:38:08,560 --> 00:38:10,960
Speaker 1: into the in game stuff as I think some other people,

836
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,000
Speaker 1: but that is definitely an area like to do more of.

837
00:38:13,120 --> 00:38:15,279
Speaker 1: But you know, I just because I try to find

838
00:38:15,320 --> 00:38:17,839
Speaker 1: matchups and again with the injury stuff, I think that's

839
00:38:17,880 --> 00:38:19,680
Speaker 1: very important when I look at some of the secondary

840
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,160
Speaker 1: um you know analysis, that helps me with you know,

841
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,880
Speaker 1: who I'm going to play at receiver. Um you know,

842
00:38:26,320 --> 00:38:28,640
Speaker 1: we can talk about the game tomorrow. But like the cornerback,

843
00:38:28,719 --> 00:38:31,960
Speaker 1: the quarterback situation for Tampa in the slot corner is

844
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: Sean Murphy Bunton Bunting, who's by far the weakest link

845
00:38:35,160 --> 00:38:37,560
Speaker 1: on that defense. One of the worst slot corners in

846
00:38:37,600 --> 00:38:39,759
Speaker 1: the NFL got torched last year to allow of the

847
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 1: second most touchdowns in the NFL from the slot. Seede

848
00:38:42,760 --> 00:38:45,600
Speaker 1: Lamb spent his slaps in the slot last year. Now

849
00:38:45,760 --> 00:38:47,319
Speaker 1: they may move them around more this year, but I'm

850
00:38:47,360 --> 00:38:50,640
Speaker 1: sure they're gonna take advantage and really highlight ceedee lamp.

851
00:38:50,719 --> 00:38:52,920
Speaker 1: So for me, that's like, okay, ding ding, let me

852
00:38:52,920 --> 00:38:54,960
Speaker 1: look at the prop, let me look at you know,

853
00:38:55,080 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 1: let me look at his DFS matchup, what's his price?

854
00:38:57,560 --> 00:38:59,120
Speaker 1: Like I those are the types of things I do.

855
00:38:59,160 --> 00:39:01,520
Speaker 1: I'm not perfect with and sometimes you know, you've gotta

856
00:39:01,520 --> 00:39:03,560
Speaker 1: you gotta deal with ownership percentage. You want to be

857
00:39:03,560 --> 00:39:06,160
Speaker 1: a little more contrarian. But you know, for me, it's like,

858
00:39:06,239 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 1: let me find the best matchups I can first and

859
00:39:09,040 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: then go from there so that that kind of all

860
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,480
Speaker 1: gets intertwined. So we'll do Dallas Tampa in a set.

861
00:39:13,560 --> 00:39:17,880
Speaker 1: But one last thing you mentioned the rest advantage for Carolina,

862
00:39:18,000 --> 00:39:21,799
Speaker 1: huge arrest advantage. I remember fondly last year Pittsburgh was

863
00:39:22,000 --> 00:39:25,799
Speaker 1: rolling along, some luck involved, and then COVID right around

864
00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:28,440
Speaker 1: I think it was the Thanksgiving game totally wrecked. They

865
00:39:28,560 --> 00:39:31,360
Speaker 1: ended up having not really having a buy if memory serves,

866
00:39:31,800 --> 00:39:36,320
Speaker 1: and then like the Baltimore Washington Pittsburgh Baltimore Washington Buffalo

867
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:37,799
Speaker 1: games back to back to back. We're played in like

868
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:41,480
Speaker 1: twelve days something I've scene, and they were favored t

869
00:39:41,719 --> 00:39:44,719
Speaker 1: A heading into that Buffalo game, I think briefly, and

870
00:39:44,719 --> 00:39:46,680
Speaker 1: then it went to Buffalo favor by one or two

871
00:39:46,719 --> 00:39:49,520
Speaker 1: or whatever, and they Buffalo covered but t A. In

872
00:39:49,600 --> 00:39:52,719
Speaker 1: Week one, Pittsburgh is a six and a half point dog,

873
00:39:53,160 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 1: and I'm just if from a funky line weirdness, I

874
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:58,680
Speaker 1: know Buffalo is gonna be good this year. Josh Allen

875
00:39:58,800 --> 00:40:02,560
Speaker 1: m v P blah blah blah. I'm really close to

876
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:04,920
Speaker 1: taking the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week one getting six and

877
00:40:04,960 --> 00:40:07,320
Speaker 1: a half. Is that insane? Talking me off the ledge.

878
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:09,640
Speaker 1: I like Pittsburgh too, I'm with you. One of my

879
00:40:09,680 --> 00:40:11,360
Speaker 1: favorites of the week is probably gonna be in my

880
00:40:11,400 --> 00:40:13,680
Speaker 1: circuit cards. So not to give everything away, but that's

881
00:40:13,719 --> 00:40:16,160
Speaker 1: definitely one I like. I think that, you know, and

882
00:40:16,280 --> 00:40:18,960
Speaker 1: doing some you know, preseason analysis, like I think that

883
00:40:19,200 --> 00:40:21,839
Speaker 1: I'm negative on Pittsburgh in general too. I think they're

884
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:24,760
Speaker 1: one stinks, but like they still have a top five defense,

885
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,920
Speaker 1: right they still have um, you know, Big Ben is

886
00:40:28,000 --> 00:40:30,960
Speaker 1: still good. Enough to to to distribute the ball with

887
00:40:31,040 --> 00:40:33,759
Speaker 1: good receivers. You know, whatever you want to say when

888
00:40:33,800 --> 00:40:36,480
Speaker 1: Naji Harris and drafting running back around one, like he's

889
00:40:36,480 --> 00:40:38,920
Speaker 1: still a good prospect and he can he can do

890
00:40:39,000 --> 00:40:41,919
Speaker 1: things for them, Like they've got things going for them.

891
00:40:41,920 --> 00:40:43,960
Speaker 1: And this is a perfect spot from Mike Tomlin. So

892
00:40:44,000 --> 00:40:46,879
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is thirty eight and twenty against the spread. That's

893
00:40:46,960 --> 00:40:49,920
Speaker 1: close to sixty six percent under Mike Tomlin as an

894
00:40:49,960 --> 00:40:53,400
Speaker 1: underdogar they are fourteen and three against the spread in

895
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:56,279
Speaker 1: their last seventeen as an underdog. Like, this is the

896
00:40:56,360 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 1: spot that he covets, right, and when he's a big favorite,

897
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:03,040
Speaker 1: you know, on the road against Jacksonville, that's a different story.

898
00:41:03,080 --> 00:41:05,440
Speaker 1: Like those are the games I think Dallas last year

899
00:41:05,480 --> 00:41:07,520
Speaker 1: when they were down their third string quarterback, they almost

900
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:09,000
Speaker 1: lost out right, Like those are the games you want

901
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,600
Speaker 1: to avoid Pittsburgh. But this is the spot that you

902
00:41:11,640 --> 00:41:14,200
Speaker 1: want to jump on the Steelers when everyone's negative on them,

903
00:41:14,520 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 1: when you know no one thinks that they can compete. Um,

904
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 1: you know, this is a good spot for them, and

905
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:22,600
Speaker 1: I like, look, they got a new offensive coordinator, Matt Canada,

906
00:41:22,840 --> 00:41:27,640
Speaker 1: who comes in UM the old philosophy was just so

907
00:41:27,719 --> 00:41:30,120
Speaker 1: outdated they do. They did very little to no pre

908
00:41:30,239 --> 00:41:34,279
Speaker 1: snap motion with their old offensive coordinator Randy Fickner. Um.

909
00:41:34,400 --> 00:41:37,040
Speaker 1: They had way more shotgun than than Ben should be

910
00:41:37,080 --> 00:41:39,759
Speaker 1: in they've gone and it was only one preseason game,

911
00:41:39,800 --> 00:41:43,280
Speaker 1: but Ben was in shotgun sixteen percent less, sixteen percent

912
00:41:43,360 --> 00:41:45,879
Speaker 1: less than he was last year, so that's good. They

913
00:41:45,880 --> 00:41:48,439
Speaker 1: were using a lot more pre snap motion, so guys

914
00:41:48,480 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 1: are moving around. They were handing the ball off the

915
00:41:50,520 --> 00:41:52,840
Speaker 1: clay pool on the end a rounds. Like, I think

916
00:41:53,120 --> 00:41:56,160
Speaker 1: from a first game perspective, it's gonna catch Buffalo off

917
00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:58,239
Speaker 1: guard a little bit um because they're not gonna be

918
00:41:58,320 --> 00:41:59,879
Speaker 1: used to it with the Steelers offense and they don't

919
00:41:59,880 --> 00:42:01,480
Speaker 1: know what's gonna be thrown at him. So I think

920
00:42:01,480 --> 00:42:03,479
Speaker 1: that's gonna help. And I just think, look, the Bills

921
00:42:03,480 --> 00:42:05,880
Speaker 1: are great. The Bills offense is great. But you know

922
00:42:06,080 --> 00:42:09,359
Speaker 1: they didn't blow the doors off the Steelers last year.

923
00:42:09,400 --> 00:42:12,200
Speaker 1: They scored a touch on pick six. They only put

924
00:42:12,280 --> 00:42:14,959
Speaker 1: up five point five yards per sorry, four point four

925
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:19,280
Speaker 1: yards per play. Uh. Josh Allen produced his second, sorry,

926
00:42:19,360 --> 00:42:21,600
Speaker 1: his lowest yards per attempt of the season in that

927
00:42:21,719 --> 00:42:24,560
Speaker 1: game at five point five, Like he wasn't great. So

928
00:42:24,760 --> 00:42:26,800
Speaker 1: you know, I think that they can they can slow

929
00:42:26,840 --> 00:42:29,759
Speaker 1: down this Buffalo Juggernaut offensive enough, and I think they

930
00:42:29,760 --> 00:42:32,120
Speaker 1: could score enough on offense with this new offensive coordinator.

931
00:42:32,320 --> 00:42:34,600
Speaker 1: And just again, back against the wall, I'll take Mike

932
00:42:34,680 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 1: Tomlin as an underdog any day. Fox Sports Radio has

933
00:42:38,000 --> 00:42:40,919
Speaker 1: the best sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all

934
00:42:40,960 --> 00:42:44,160
Speaker 1: of our shows at Fox Sports Radio dot com and

935
00:42:44,360 --> 00:42:46,920
Speaker 1: within the I Heart Radio app search f s R

936
00:42:47,040 --> 00:42:50,560
Speaker 1: to listen live. I'm not out here taking a cut

937
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:52,880
Speaker 1: of t a s site right SA started a site.

938
00:42:52,920 --> 00:42:56,200
Speaker 1: It's Cleve c lv analytics. Why is it Cleve because

939
00:42:56,239 --> 00:42:59,360
Speaker 1: he lives in Cleveland Analytics dot com. He's charging a

940
00:42:59,440 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 1: hundred seven five dollars for the season. Now, I know

941
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,440
Speaker 1: some people will be like, oh, that's way too much money.

942
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,720
Speaker 1: I just did the math on the old calculator. Hundred

943
00:43:05,760 --> 00:43:08,919
Speaker 1: seventy five divided by eight team weeks, nine dollars a week.

944
00:43:09,440 --> 00:43:12,719
Speaker 1: That's basically what two Starbucks drinks guys like. Seriously that

945
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:14,520
Speaker 1: I mean the guy start a website. You just heard

946
00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:17,239
Speaker 1: a lot of the good info. Um, I will be

947
00:43:17,280 --> 00:43:19,880
Speaker 1: signing up today. Obviously, I know t A. I'm not

948
00:43:19,880 --> 00:43:21,840
Speaker 1: gonna badger him, but via texts for his for his

949
00:43:21,880 --> 00:43:24,399
Speaker 1: circuit pis and we disagree sometimes, but I think it's

950
00:43:24,400 --> 00:43:27,120
Speaker 1: a value. And again, this is an eighteen week season.

951
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:30,279
Speaker 1: There's probably some fantasy colonels in there. Uh so t A.

952
00:43:30,400 --> 00:43:33,160
Speaker 1: I would recommend it to everybody. Now I've kept you

953
00:43:33,200 --> 00:43:37,880
Speaker 1: wait too long. But Dallas Tampa um the start of

954
00:43:37,880 --> 00:43:40,160
Speaker 1: the season. Everybody and their mom is on Tampa coming

955
00:43:40,200 --> 00:43:42,480
Speaker 1: off the Super Bowl win. The totals looks like, I

956
00:43:42,480 --> 00:43:44,319
Speaker 1: don't know, is it getting steamed up. It's tough not

957
00:43:44,360 --> 00:43:46,960
Speaker 1: to like the over here, but go ahead and give

958
00:43:47,040 --> 00:43:49,680
Speaker 1: us your thoughts. Well for I appreciate the shout on

959
00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:51,600
Speaker 1: the site. Yeah, this is not a tout site. By

960
00:43:51,600 --> 00:43:53,359
Speaker 1: the way, I hope no one thinks it'll come here

961
00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:55,600
Speaker 1: for picks and guarantee winners. No, none of that stuff

962
00:43:55,600 --> 00:43:59,360
Speaker 1: that doesn't exist, No, exactly. This is a content site

963
00:43:59,360 --> 00:44:02,400
Speaker 1: like I'm gonna I mean, Jason seen it. I've I

964
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:04,760
Speaker 1: used to write a Shark football like, I will post

965
00:44:04,840 --> 00:44:08,680
Speaker 1: a bunch of you know, juicy nuggets matchups again, key

966
00:44:08,719 --> 00:44:11,520
Speaker 1: injury reports like that stuff you're not gonna see anywhere else,

967
00:44:11,520 --> 00:44:14,799
Speaker 1: Like who the backup guard is for random team that's

968
00:44:14,840 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 1: that's missing their starter, Like, I'm gonna go through all

969
00:44:17,040 --> 00:44:19,280
Speaker 1: those things, and you know you can make your decision

970
00:44:19,280 --> 00:44:21,520
Speaker 1: whether you want to follow me or not or um,

971
00:44:21,560 --> 00:44:23,919
Speaker 1: you know, some of the matchups will help you make,

972
00:44:24,200 --> 00:44:27,359
Speaker 1: you know, DFS decisions, fantasy decisions whatever. I'll talk about

973
00:44:27,400 --> 00:44:29,440
Speaker 1: play call tendencies, all those sorts of things. So you

974
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:32,120
Speaker 1: take the content, you do what you think, um is

975
00:44:32,160 --> 00:44:35,520
Speaker 1: best in your regard. So in terms of the game tomorrow, Yeah,

976
00:44:35,560 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 1: I liked the over and I took it a fifty one. Um,

977
00:44:38,600 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 1: it's up to fifty two. Now, I think this is

978
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:42,839
Speaker 1: gonna be a shootout, like and it seems obvious, but

979
00:44:43,000 --> 00:44:45,319
Speaker 1: there really is no reason for me to go under here,

980
00:44:45,719 --> 00:44:47,560
Speaker 1: Like let me, let me toss out some nuggets for you.

981
00:44:47,680 --> 00:44:50,880
Speaker 1: So this is just in the five games that Dallas

982
00:44:50,920 --> 00:44:53,280
Speaker 1: had with with Doc last year, they averaged over thirty

983
00:44:53,280 --> 00:44:55,000
Speaker 1: two points per game. They were third in the NFL

984
00:44:55,040 --> 00:44:57,680
Speaker 1: and yards per play there were six and explosive pass

985
00:44:57,760 --> 00:45:00,480
Speaker 1: rate right like, they throw it all over the field. Uh,

986
00:45:00,600 --> 00:45:02,920
Speaker 1: what's a crazy about that number is they turned the

987
00:45:02,920 --> 00:45:05,920
Speaker 1: ball over eleven times in those games, most in the NFL.

988
00:45:06,280 --> 00:45:07,799
Speaker 1: They fumbled the ball. They put the ball in the

989
00:45:07,800 --> 00:45:10,480
Speaker 1: ground eight times. The second most in the NFL and

990
00:45:10,520 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 1: they only recovered one of those fumbles like that, that's

991
00:45:13,200 --> 00:45:16,719
Speaker 1: pretty pretty lucky to not unlucky to get not get

992
00:45:16,719 --> 00:45:18,920
Speaker 1: those fumbles at least half of them. And so when

993
00:45:18,960 --> 00:45:20,759
Speaker 1: you take out some of those turnovers, I mean, they

994
00:45:20,840 --> 00:45:23,439
Speaker 1: really really had some some nice efficiency. They were also

995
00:45:23,520 --> 00:45:25,439
Speaker 1: the fastest team in the NFL in terms of pace

996
00:45:25,960 --> 00:45:29,160
Speaker 1: um in close game situations. So whether it's a close

997
00:45:29,200 --> 00:45:30,920
Speaker 1: game or they're trailing a lot, like they're gonna be,

998
00:45:31,080 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 1: they're gonna be moving the ball, they're gonna throw the

999
00:45:32,640 --> 00:45:35,359
Speaker 1: ball a lot. And then you look, I mean they lost.

1000
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:37,680
Speaker 1: They were twenty eight and adjusted games lost due to

1001
00:45:37,680 --> 00:45:40,440
Speaker 1: injury last year in general. But then thirty one on

1002
00:45:40,480 --> 00:45:42,600
Speaker 1: the offensive line. Now we know that Zack Martin's out,

1003
00:45:43,160 --> 00:45:45,399
Speaker 1: but they get Tyron Smith, all pro left tackle back.

1004
00:45:45,480 --> 00:45:47,920
Speaker 1: They get lyall Collins, who's who's had a stain here,

1005
00:45:48,040 --> 00:45:51,920
Speaker 1: he's back. They've got Connor McGovern who's gonna take over

1006
00:45:51,960 --> 00:45:53,760
Speaker 1: for Zack Martin, who who played a lot of snaps,

1007
00:45:53,800 --> 00:45:56,319
Speaker 1: put over six hundred snaps last year. He's fine, Like

1008
00:45:56,400 --> 00:45:58,439
Speaker 1: he's not he's not great, he's not bad. He's fine.

1009
00:45:58,520 --> 00:46:00,520
Speaker 1: So they got good enough offensive line of attack them.

1010
00:46:00,840 --> 00:46:03,719
Speaker 1: Tampa fit in the NFL and defense when we look

1011
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:05,200
Speaker 1: at d v O R and some of the advanced

1012
00:46:05,200 --> 00:46:08,520
Speaker 1: metrics UH and past defense. But when they faced they

1013
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,560
Speaker 1: faced eight top third team past defenses last year. In

1014
00:46:11,600 --> 00:46:15,839
Speaker 1: those games, basses were completed over almost three yards per game,

1015
00:46:16,120 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 1: seven points, six yards per tempt, nineteen touchdowns, four interceptions.

1016
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 1: They allowed twenty seven points per game in those games.

1017
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,359
Speaker 1: Like this is the quality of offense they're gonna face.

1018
00:46:24,400 --> 00:46:26,319
Speaker 1: So there's no reason to believe that the Bucks are

1019
00:46:26,320 --> 00:46:29,120
Speaker 1: not gonna allow something similar as long as Dallas is

1020
00:46:29,160 --> 00:46:31,080
Speaker 1: throwing the ball, as long as Dak Prescott's healthy, Like

1021
00:46:31,120 --> 00:46:32,640
Speaker 1: that's the other thing I don't I can't tell you

1022
00:46:32,680 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 1: for sure that it's healthy, but I'm assuming that he's

1023
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:37,680
Speaker 1: ready to go. And the thing about Tampa is they

1024
00:46:37,719 --> 00:46:39,520
Speaker 1: have the number one run defense in the NFL. That

1025
00:46:39,640 --> 00:46:41,759
Speaker 1: they were awesome last year, they were awesome two years ago.

1026
00:46:42,040 --> 00:46:44,760
Speaker 1: So teams throw the ball at the highest rate against

1027
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:47,840
Speaker 1: them in the NFL last year at um in the

1028
00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:49,799
Speaker 1: first three quarters, like they had no choice because they

1029
00:46:49,960 --> 00:46:52,680
Speaker 1: were getting stuffed. So as long as Dallas understands this

1030
00:46:52,760 --> 00:46:55,400
Speaker 1: and they don't force the ball to Zeke Elliott up

1031
00:46:55,440 --> 00:46:57,200
Speaker 1: the middle. I think they're gonna throw the ball a lot.

1032
00:46:57,440 --> 00:46:59,040
Speaker 1: So all that being said, I mean, and then you

1033
00:46:59,080 --> 00:47:02,480
Speaker 1: add in dallas Is def which was atrocious last year. Um,

1034
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 1: they were one of the worst in the NFL, bottom ten.

1035
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:06,680
Speaker 1: And they did it against the twenty six ranked schedule

1036
00:47:06,680 --> 00:47:09,879
Speaker 1: of opposing quarterbacks. Right, they had seven games against Alex Smith,

1037
00:47:09,960 --> 00:47:14,080
Speaker 1: Kyle Allen, Brandon, Allen Carson, Wentz, Nick Collins, Daniel Jones twice.

1038
00:47:14,239 --> 00:47:17,080
Speaker 1: They only face two top ten pass offenses, the Browns

1039
00:47:17,080 --> 00:47:19,120
Speaker 1: in Seattle. They allowed thirty eight points per game in

1040
00:47:19,120 --> 00:47:23,319
Speaker 1: those in those games, Like this is I mean, but

1041
00:47:23,400 --> 00:47:25,680
Speaker 1: Dan Quinn's gonna dan Quinn and Michael Parsons are gonna

1042
00:47:25,719 --> 00:47:29,320
Speaker 1: fix everything every t a I have been here. Listen,

1043
00:47:29,440 --> 00:47:30,960
Speaker 1: you know I do these shows that when all these

1044
00:47:30,960 --> 00:47:32,680
Speaker 1: guys come in. Oh Damn Quinn, come on, you know

1045
00:47:32,719 --> 00:47:35,160
Speaker 1: he's so good back in the day. And Michael Parsons super.

1046
00:47:35,400 --> 00:47:38,040
Speaker 1: Michael Parsons didn't play a football game last year, like

1047
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:40,120
Speaker 1: he opted out. This guy hasn't played and his first

1048
00:47:40,160 --> 00:47:42,879
Speaker 1: game in the NFL's against Tom Brady. You don't think

1049
00:47:42,920 --> 00:47:45,120
Speaker 1: Brady's just gonna put him in action all the time.

1050
00:47:45,560 --> 00:47:48,800
Speaker 1: I mean, o. J. Howard's back, Gronk Antonio Brown, like

1051
00:47:48,840 --> 00:47:52,640
Speaker 1: they're gonna get so many advantageous matchups, Like I don't

1052
00:47:52,680 --> 00:47:56,360
Speaker 1: know how this Dallas even stops anybody early. Yeah, and

1053
00:47:56,440 --> 00:47:59,680
Speaker 1: look and you mentioned, um, you know Michael Parsons like

1054
00:48:00,080 --> 00:48:02,719
Speaker 1: backer in general, just it's hard to really affect a

1055
00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,480
Speaker 1: game often linebacker these days. And we even saw in

1056
00:48:05,560 --> 00:48:07,600
Speaker 1: hard knocks like he got burned by a fullback on

1057
00:48:07,600 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 1: a wheel route. Like you don't think that they're gonna

1058
00:48:09,680 --> 00:48:11,960
Speaker 1: you don't think Tom Brady's gonna send Joe Bernard and

1059
00:48:13,440 --> 00:48:16,040
Speaker 1: you know, so yeah he might. He might help from

1060
00:48:16,080 --> 00:48:18,840
Speaker 1: a pass rush perspective, but from from a past defense,

1061
00:48:18,880 --> 00:48:20,960
Speaker 1: he's not gonna help at all. Dan Quinn and that

1062
00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:22,799
Speaker 1: that is so funny. So I was looking it up

1063
00:48:22,800 --> 00:48:25,239
Speaker 1: because I'm like, it felt like he kept having to

1064
00:48:25,280 --> 00:48:28,400
Speaker 1: relinquish play calling duties with in Atlanta because things were

1065
00:48:28,400 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 1: going bad. And I looked it up. So in two

1066
00:48:29,520 --> 00:48:33,080
Speaker 1: thousand nineteen, he uh fired the defensive coordinator. Heading into

1067
00:48:33,080 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 1: the nineteen season, fired the d C. He took over

1068
00:48:35,640 --> 00:48:38,000
Speaker 1: play calling. He said, this is gonna be my defense. Right.

1069
00:48:38,480 --> 00:48:40,920
Speaker 1: What happened? They started this season one and seven, and

1070
00:48:40,960 --> 00:48:43,600
Speaker 1: they were second worse than the NFL and defense, So

1071
00:48:43,640 --> 00:48:45,279
Speaker 1: in order to save his job, he was asked to

1072
00:48:45,680 --> 00:48:49,360
Speaker 1: relinquish the play calling. What happens, Atlanta finishes six and

1073
00:48:49,360 --> 00:48:51,799
Speaker 1: two and then the fourth best defense in the NFL.

1074
00:48:51,920 --> 00:48:56,759
Speaker 1: Once he did that. Yeah, so last year he did

1075
00:48:56,760 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 1: the same thing. It started out the season third, and

1076
00:48:59,280 --> 00:49:01,720
Speaker 1: I think they split play callings thirtieth in the NFL

1077
00:49:01,760 --> 00:49:03,960
Speaker 1: and e p A in the first five games. Then

1078
00:49:04,040 --> 00:49:06,520
Speaker 1: was fired. What happened the rest of the year. The

1079
00:49:06,520 --> 00:49:09,920
Speaker 1: defense finished fifteenth in the NFL when he was gone, Like,

1080
00:49:11,000 --> 00:49:12,799
Speaker 1: you can't tell me that he's going to add that

1081
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:14,799
Speaker 1: much value when he couldn't do it his own team

1082
00:49:14,800 --> 00:49:16,760
Speaker 1: for the last handful of years. So you know, maybe

1083
00:49:16,800 --> 00:49:20,319
Speaker 1: he's a minimal impact over what Tall has had last year,

1084
00:49:20,360 --> 00:49:21,960
Speaker 1: but you know, to the calumn the Savior, Like, I

1085
00:49:21,960 --> 00:49:24,080
Speaker 1: think it's ridiculous. So I think this is gonna be

1086
00:49:24,120 --> 00:49:26,920
Speaker 1: a shootout in the last nugget And this again, this

1087
00:49:27,000 --> 00:49:33,240
Speaker 1: could be um completely um you know, may not have validity,

1088
00:49:33,239 --> 00:49:34,640
Speaker 1: but I thought it was interesting, Like it's gonna be

1089
00:49:34,680 --> 00:49:37,120
Speaker 1: the upper eighties and Tampo right at kickoff since two

1090
00:49:37,160 --> 00:49:39,319
Speaker 1: thousand eleven, Okay, and this is and I picked. Two

1091
00:49:39,320 --> 00:49:41,319
Speaker 1: thousand eleven is a date because that's when the cb

1092
00:49:41,480 --> 00:49:43,880
Speaker 1: A was changed, so players in the off season and

1093
00:49:43,880 --> 00:49:46,160
Speaker 1: training camp were it's a lot easier. There were no

1094
00:49:46,239 --> 00:49:49,359
Speaker 1: more two days, right, Like, it's a lot different back

1095
00:49:49,360 --> 00:49:52,280
Speaker 1: then than it is now. Um, since two thousand eleven,

1096
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:56,320
Speaker 1: overs have hitt of games with temperatures over eighty degrees

1097
00:49:56,360 --> 00:49:59,840
Speaker 1: in Week one in Florida, just in September alone in Florida,

1098
00:49:59,840 --> 00:50:02,400
Speaker 1: where it's the hottest, Wolvers have hitten fifteen in the

1099
00:50:02,480 --> 00:50:08,959
Speaker 1: last twenty one games with temperatures over they get guests.

1100
00:50:09,160 --> 00:50:11,960
Speaker 1: And now this year, where teams played their their starters

1101
00:50:12,080 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 1: less and less, like, I think the second half could

1102
00:50:14,600 --> 00:50:17,040
Speaker 1: lead to some you know, even more scoring because these

1103
00:50:17,040 --> 00:50:19,080
Speaker 1: defenses are just completely worn out. So just a little

1104
00:50:19,120 --> 00:50:21,200
Speaker 1: nugget that we'll see what happens. But I think that's

1105
00:50:21,200 --> 00:50:23,800
Speaker 1: an interesting Uh, it's that I don't really hear anything.

1106
00:50:24,000 --> 00:50:26,560
Speaker 1: It's funny. I'll wrap on this because I'm sure everybody

1107
00:50:26,560 --> 00:50:29,480
Speaker 1: saw some some random guy hit a fourteen team parlay

1108
00:50:29,480 --> 00:50:33,120
Speaker 1: in college football. Fourteen unders turned ten dollars into eighty

1109
00:50:33,120 --> 00:50:35,920
Speaker 1: thousand dollars. So as a joke, I was texting people, Oh,

1110
00:50:35,920 --> 00:50:38,360
Speaker 1: we should take twelve NFL unders in week one and

1111
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:40,000
Speaker 1: then you start looking and you're like, oh my gosh,

1112
00:50:40,000 --> 00:50:42,640
Speaker 1: I can't take any of these. Uh. And it last

1113
00:50:42,719 --> 00:50:44,640
Speaker 1: year early with no fans in the stands, there was

1114
00:50:44,680 --> 00:50:47,480
Speaker 1: a lot of unders of memory serves, um, do you

1115
00:50:47,520 --> 00:50:49,319
Speaker 1: have that? Do you think that continues? Do you think

1116
00:50:49,320 --> 00:50:51,440
Speaker 1: it flips to overs this year? Well, to me, I

1117
00:50:51,719 --> 00:50:53,400
Speaker 1: just go, I go game by game. I try not

1118
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:55,680
Speaker 1: to look at over argent thing. Now, I will say

1119
00:50:56,040 --> 00:50:58,440
Speaker 1: I was adamant. I was one of the few I

1120
00:50:58,480 --> 00:51:00,160
Speaker 1: remember because I did it on Twitter, and I did

1121
00:51:00,200 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 1: it on our podcast We Should Do, and I wrote

1122
00:51:02,080 --> 00:51:04,560
Speaker 1: it on the site multiple times. I said, this is

1123
00:51:04,560 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 1: gonna be the first couple of weeks are gonna be heavy,

1124
00:51:06,680 --> 00:51:09,279
Speaker 1: heavy overs. And I thought at the time, I didn't

1125
00:51:09,280 --> 00:51:11,720
Speaker 1: even use the no fans is really a huge reason

1126
00:51:11,719 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 1: why it was more. With no tackling, um, no preseason

1127
00:51:16,080 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 1: like no scrimmages, I thought the tackling would really struggle

1128
00:51:18,640 --> 00:51:20,239
Speaker 1: because the last time we saw that was with the

1129
00:51:21,120 --> 00:51:23,520
Speaker 1: lockout year of two thousand and eleven and the overs

1130
00:51:23,600 --> 00:51:25,880
Speaker 1: hit at an incredible crip clip. The first couple of

1131
00:51:25,920 --> 00:51:27,920
Speaker 1: years or the first couple of weeks of that season

1132
00:51:28,640 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 1: because of the bad tackling. I thought that would carry over.

1133
00:51:31,120 --> 00:51:33,759
Speaker 1: Similarly last year when we saw I think overs hit

1134
00:51:33,880 --> 00:51:36,480
Speaker 1: like all but two games in Week one, UM, and

1135
00:51:36,480 --> 00:51:37,960
Speaker 1: I think some of that was the noise, and some

1136
00:51:38,000 --> 00:51:39,880
Speaker 1: of that was some of the tackling issues. And we

1137
00:51:39,960 --> 00:51:42,640
Speaker 1: also saw, you know, penalties weren't being called. All those

1138
00:51:42,640 --> 00:51:45,000
Speaker 1: sorts of things. I think the league really wanted with

1139
00:51:45,120 --> 00:51:46,680
Speaker 1: you know, the COVID issue and no fans. I think

1140
00:51:46,719 --> 00:51:48,560
Speaker 1: they wanted some high scoring games and they got it.

1141
00:51:49,680 --> 00:51:53,120
Speaker 1: I'm not looking at this week like that. I mean,

1142
00:51:53,200 --> 00:51:54,840
Speaker 1: I do like two overs. I mean I do like

1143
00:51:54,840 --> 00:51:58,480
Speaker 1: tomorrow is over, and I like um, I do like

1144
00:51:58,520 --> 00:52:01,759
Speaker 1: Arizona Tennessee over just because is to the top three

1145
00:52:01,800 --> 00:52:05,840
Speaker 1: fastest paced teams in the NFL. Um terrible defense in Tennessee.

1146
00:52:06,520 --> 00:52:08,759
Speaker 1: Arizona secondary is a mass like I think they're gonna

1147
00:52:08,880 --> 00:52:11,239
Speaker 1: with Julio Jones, you know, on board. I think it

1148
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:13,839
Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of points there, but an overriding

1149
00:52:13,880 --> 00:52:16,200
Speaker 1: theme I wouldn't get too caught up in, you know,

1150
00:52:16,280 --> 00:52:17,759
Speaker 1: let me take a bunch of overs or a bunch

1151
00:52:17,800 --> 00:52:19,680
Speaker 1: of unders, just just go game by game like I

1152
00:52:19,680 --> 00:52:21,560
Speaker 1: think that's the best way to approach it. All right,

1153
00:52:21,600 --> 00:52:23,439
Speaker 1: we chewed up way too much time. I told ah,

1154
00:52:23,480 --> 00:52:25,160
Speaker 1: let's we'll do twenty minutes because we used to do

1155
00:52:25,160 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 1: in like ten fifteen on the radio show. All right,

1156
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:29,560
Speaker 1: forty five minutes later. But it's so good, I mean

1157
00:52:30,200 --> 00:52:33,440
Speaker 1: great to have your congrats on starting your own shop. Obviously,

1158
00:52:33,480 --> 00:52:36,960
Speaker 1: I can't recommend it enough. Um, I'll I will be

1159
00:52:37,000 --> 00:52:38,719
Speaker 1: buying it. And listen, I'm not gonna go out and

1160
00:52:38,760 --> 00:52:40,839
Speaker 1: give out all your great info on on Twitter because

1161
00:52:40,880 --> 00:52:43,680
Speaker 1: he's a good follow also, but listen, folks, NFL's here,

1162
00:52:43,760 --> 00:52:45,960
Speaker 1: like the season is gonna be fun. Uh, don't don't

1163
00:52:46,000 --> 00:52:48,120
Speaker 1: fire all your money in week one. As as exciting

1164
00:52:48,160 --> 00:52:49,600
Speaker 1: as it is, these lines have been up for what

1165
00:52:49,760 --> 00:52:52,880
Speaker 1: three months? Oh yeah, at least at least so all right,

1166
00:52:52,920 --> 00:52:55,000
Speaker 1: t keep up the good work and we'll talk to

1167
00:52:55,000 --> 00:52:56,839
Speaker 1: you soon. Man. Awesome, Jason thinks,