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Speaker 1: What's going on? Everybody, Welcome into Fantasy Pros. This is

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Speaker 1: the Fantasy Baseball Podcast. I'm your host, Joe Rico, joined

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Speaker 1: today by Kelly Kirby. She is our resident penguin here

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Speaker 1: at Fantasy Pros, and I would argue if your company

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Speaker 1: doesn't have a resident penguin, you're not a legitimate operation.

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Speaker 1: Not in the slightest Kelly, how are you doing? Great

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Speaker 1: to talk with you. We only do a couple shows

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Speaker 1: a year, so Ilway was really really look forward to

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Speaker 1: getting behind the mic with you.

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Speaker 2: I always look forward to talking to you, probably because

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Speaker 2: we don't have to do it much. I'm like, oh hey, look,

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Speaker 2: Erico and I are gonna get to chat.

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Speaker 1: No, I agree with you entirely.

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Speaker 2: I think a penguin should be at the top of

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Speaker 2: everyone's list. Everybody knows the penguins are more interested in

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Speaker 2: baseball in the winter anyway, and so yeah, I'm totally

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Speaker 2: stoked to do this with you.

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Speaker 1: Where I am right now, it feels like a penguin

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Speaker 1: could walk by at any moment. It's like negative fifteen celsius.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure what the conversion is to fahrenheit, but

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Speaker 1: it's probably like fifteen or twenty fahrenheit. It's bad, it's

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Speaker 1: rough out there. Penguin could come up at any moment.

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Speaker 1: But today we're talking about who we are taking in

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Speaker 1: the first round of our twenty twenty six Fantasy Baseball drafts.

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Speaker 1: We're ramping up our coverage here. We've already done a

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Speaker 1: bunch of podcasts and we are going to continue to

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Speaker 1: be ramping up the coverage. So make sure you guys

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Speaker 1: are subscribing to the channel. Commenting below, who are you

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Speaker 1: taking in the first round, Who are you avoiding? Who

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Speaker 1: are players that maybe you're going in the second round

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Speaker 1: that you think are first round players? Let us know

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Speaker 1: all that below in the comments. But we are going

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Speaker 1: to be going through the first round. We've broken it

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Speaker 1: up into kind of mini tiers within the rounds, and

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Speaker 1: we're going to start at the top, because where else

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Speaker 1: would we start with show Hey Otani and Aaron Judge.

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Speaker 1: Now we're looking at the nfbc's ADP for this. I

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Speaker 1: think it's probably the best place to look for ADP

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Speaker 1: this time of year. The major sites that a lot

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Speaker 1: of people play on, the Yahoos and espns aren't open yet,

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Speaker 1: and NFBC people are putting real money a lot of

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Speaker 1: the time, it's fifty one hundred and fifty two hundred

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Speaker 1: and fifty dollars leagues, So people are putting their money

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Speaker 1: where their mouth is in these fomats. At the top,

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Speaker 1: it's Otani and Judge. Otani goes slightly ahead, but the

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Speaker 1: ADP is one point two for Otani one point nine

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Speaker 1: for Judge. They're kind of alternating as the first pick,

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Speaker 1: Otani slightly more often. But Kelly, do you have a

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Speaker 1: strong preference here on who goes as the first pick

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six drafts? If you get the first pick?

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Speaker 1: Is it an easy decision for you?

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Speaker 2: It basically is for me. I don't know if it's

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Speaker 2: because I'm not a giant fan of Judge just in general,

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Speaker 2: but I would go Tani. I wouldn't think twice about

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Speaker 2: it as long as he's like one consider one player,

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Speaker 2: you know who? How do you put anyone else there?

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Speaker 2: But I get it with Judge, I just as he

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Speaker 2: gets older, It's like I can't quite shake how the

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Speaker 2: injuries might start to kind of pile up once you

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Speaker 2: get into this age bracket for him. Not that Otani's

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Speaker 2: not without his risks, but I mean, I think you

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Speaker 2: could still hit fifty homers even if his arm fell off.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, so I would go Atani. But it's like,

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Speaker 2: I don't be grudge anyone going judge at all.

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Speaker 1: So if you had, let's say you had ten first

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Speaker 1: overall picks and you knew that going in, what would

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Speaker 1: be the distribution? Would it be ten Otani? Or would

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Speaker 1: you maybe go eight and two, seven and three? Where

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Speaker 1: would your head be at there?

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Speaker 2: I would say eight and two. I'd be okay with

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Speaker 2: eighty percent exposure and having a little judge, you know,

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Speaker 2: I mean, that's not gonna be a bad thing. And

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Speaker 2: picking second, that's I mean, I feel like that would

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Speaker 2: be a also kind of a no brainer for me.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, to be the devil's advocate here, and to also

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Speaker 1: pose the question of Otani's pitching and how that enters

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Speaker 1: into it and is it a positive or a negative thing?

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Speaker 1: I think it could be perceived as either or because

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Speaker 1: if he is accruing pitching stats for you, especially in

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Speaker 1: a points league, I think it's ESPN where you just

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Speaker 1: get both stats on a daily basis, and he is

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Speaker 1: so far anway the number one there, it's not even close.

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Speaker 1: But it also leads to potentially more injury risk. Ariel

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Speaker 1: Cohen did a conference I want to say, three or

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Speaker 1: four years ago in Arizona about how Otawni pitching it

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Speaker 1: just doubles his injury risk, if not even more than

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Speaker 1: doubles it because pitchers get hurt more often than position players.

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Speaker 1: Otani is coming off of Tommy john a couple of

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Speaker 1: years ago. They ramped him back up at the end

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Speaker 1: of twenty twenty five. Is that a concern for you

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Speaker 1: at all, that if he gets hurt on the mound

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Speaker 1: and it's serious enough, it could cost him at bats

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Speaker 1: or is it something that you think is worth it.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean I have that concern. I think the

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Speaker 2: fact he plays for the Dodgers and the fact that

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Speaker 2: they have kind of cracked a code mostly because they

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Speaker 2: just go buy as much of pitching as they get

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Speaker 2: as they can get their hands on that I feel

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Speaker 2: like they wouldn't hesitate to expand you know, to a

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Speaker 2: six man rotation or skip him in the skip him

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Speaker 2: once or twice or whatever. The idea of him having

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Speaker 2: like a catastrophic injury. Then we just go back to

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Speaker 2: the idea that, like anyone can get injured at any time.

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Speaker 2: And as we continue through the first round. I'm going

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Speaker 2: to say that a lot, but it's very you know.

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Speaker 2: To me, it's like, yep, that's a risk and it's there.

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Speaker 2: But I also think the Dodgers are like one of

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Speaker 2: the few teams that will adjust around him and make

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Speaker 2: it so like he stays fresh as a batter.

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Speaker 1: They have the luxury to do that. They're not playing

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Speaker 1: for August in July games. They don't care they're going

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Speaker 1: to win one hundred games. They're in a worst case

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Speaker 1: scenario five games or so. They're going to October, and

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Speaker 1: they will slow play certain players. You might see that

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Speaker 1: a little bit with Yamamoto. He's going to pitch in

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Speaker 1: the WBC. The pitching is going to be an interesting

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Speaker 1: thing to discuss with the Dodgers throughout the offseason. They

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Speaker 1: have such a stack pitching staff, but they may go

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Speaker 1: with you six seven guys at certain points just to

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Speaker 1: keep everybody fresh for October. Something in O'tani's favor. If

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Speaker 1: you're playing in a weekly league, most of the time,

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Speaker 1: you are going to put him as a hitter. That's

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Speaker 1: where he will be most valuable. But if you end

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Speaker 1: up really needing a couple of starts from him down

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Speaker 1: the stretch, and you could argue that's when he's more

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Speaker 1: likely to be used by the Dodgers anyway. September, maybe

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Speaker 1: there's a couple of late seasons starts to get him

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Speaker 1: fresh with the postseason. Maybe you get a two start

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Speaker 1: O Tawni week in September and you slide him into

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Speaker 1: the pitching spots. He is just so valuable. I think

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Speaker 1: he is number one with a bullet for me. If

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Speaker 1: somebody wants to argue Aaron Judge, Aaron Judge was number

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Speaker 1: one this year. I can't really make a case against

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Speaker 1: him other than he is a little bit older. The

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Speaker 1: lineup around him isn't as good. But Aaron Judge and

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Speaker 1: Otani are clearly the first two picks off the board

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Speaker 1: and they should be moving into the next tier. It's

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Speaker 1: Bobby wit Junior at three point two, adp Mon Soto

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Speaker 1: four point one, Jose Ramirez five on the dot. They're

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Speaker 1: all neck and neck right there with each other. Is

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Speaker 1: there any argument, Kelly, to take any of these three

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Speaker 1: players over? For you, it would be Aaron Judge because

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Speaker 1: you have Otani first. Would there be any argument for

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Speaker 1: Bobby wit Junior or Soto or Ramirez over Aaron Judge

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Speaker 1: for you in twenty twenty six.

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Speaker 2: So here, here's what I'm going to say, And I

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Speaker 2: feel like I'm going to say this a lot in

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Speaker 2: all the podcasts, all articles that write everything. At some

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Speaker 2: point I'm going to admit that there would be maybe

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Speaker 2: some exposure. I would want to Jose Ramirez because a

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Speaker 2: it's like I never get him be like third base

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Speaker 2: to me is can be is going to be a

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Speaker 2: little iffy on a few things, and he's just like

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Speaker 2: there's the double double. There's like he's so consistent. So again,

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Speaker 2: it's like how much do I hate Aaron Judge or

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Speaker 2: how much do I hate the Yankees? Like that comes

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Speaker 2: into play, But I mean it's nothing compared to you.

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Speaker 2: So yeah, so I of that group, Jose would be

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Speaker 2: the one that I would I would maybe lean toward.

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Speaker 2: And that's only because shortstop I think is so deep.

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Speaker 2: But I don't I don't see Soto going because I

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Speaker 2: don't think that the stolen bases are going to be

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Speaker 2: there again next year.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, and that kind of leads to my second question here.

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Speaker 1: Juan Soto just had a ridiculous season. I think he

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Speaker 1: led the major leagues in stolen bases in the second

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Speaker 1: half of twenty twenty five, he ended up a thirty eight. Now,

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Speaker 1: if you're looking at early projections, Steamer has them for twenty.

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Speaker 1: If I set the over under on nineteen and a

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Speaker 1: half stolen bases, would you say the over where we're

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Speaker 1: going to see another twenty stolen based season from Soto.

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Speaker 1: His previous high was twelve, So I'm a little bit skeptical.

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Speaker 2: I'm a little skeptical too, but you know, I guess

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Speaker 2: I'm looking at it like do the Mets run more

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Speaker 2: the other teams that he's played for, Like has you know?

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Speaker 2: Was he just given the green light? And he was like, Okay,

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Speaker 2: I guess I'm going, So I will. I will take

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Speaker 2: the over. Prepare to look dumb on it. But all

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Speaker 2: I know is only I'm not taking the over. No

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Speaker 2: number above that am I taking like the overrun Because

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Speaker 2: I just think unless it is a Mets thing where

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Speaker 2: he has a green light whenever he wants it again,

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Speaker 2: which could be the case, which is why twelve was

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Speaker 2: always you know there. But I don't think he'll get

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Speaker 2: more than twenty.

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Speaker 1: It's hard for me to believe that he will. He's

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Speaker 1: not the quickest guy. And now Josh Naylor kind of

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Speaker 1: proved it to us this year that it's not necessarily

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Speaker 1: a one to one. I think Josh Naylor was first

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Speaker 1: or second percentile in sprint speed and he's still I think,

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Speaker 1: what was it, thirty was around thirty stolen bases for him.

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Speaker 1: Sometimes it's not a one to one there, but Juan Soto,

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Speaker 1: I took him the previous four or five years combined

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Speaker 1: to get up the thirty eight stolen bases. I would

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Speaker 1: probably lean towards the under but I think that that's

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Speaker 1: roughly where we're going to see it because he's twenty

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Speaker 1: seven years old maybe, which is crazy to think that

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Speaker 1: he's done all thisted just he's forty two f war already.

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Speaker 1: At his age, it's crazy to think that he has

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Speaker 1: been so young to this point and so dominant. Maybe

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Speaker 1: he does think that he's just picked up on something

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Speaker 1: that lets him, you know, steel bases a little bit easier,

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Speaker 1: the rules are a little bit easier when he first

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Speaker 1: broke into the game. All that being said, though, I

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Speaker 1: think thirty eight was probably the hi high water mark

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Speaker 1: we're going to see from want Soto in his career.

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Speaker 1: Just to mention, Bobby Wood Junior because I mean, people

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Speaker 1: probably think that this was a bit of a down

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Speaker 1: year for him. His batting average went from three thirty

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Speaker 1: two to two ninety five, his home run total went down,

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Speaker 1: his run RBI total went down, but twenty three homers,

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Speaker 1: thirty eight steals, two ninety five batting average. He had

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Speaker 1: eight wins above replacement according to Fangrafts. Another guy who

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Speaker 1: is just on a complete Hall of Fame trajectory. And

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Speaker 1: I think the only thing that holds me back from

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Speaker 1: wanting to say I could take him over Judge is

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Speaker 1: just that scarcity in the outfield compared to shortstop. Shortstop

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Speaker 1: is so so deep this year, they're maybe fifteen sixteen

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Speaker 1: guys I'd be comfortable with the starters, And especially if

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Speaker 1: you're playing in a four or five outfielder league, getting

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Speaker 1: Judge there, it really gives you a positional advantage. Not

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Speaker 1: that I want to be bogged down in the first

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Speaker 1: round thinking about positional things, but it does go into

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Speaker 1: the back of your head a little.

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Speaker 2: Bit, especially in leagues where you need five of them, right, Like,

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Speaker 2: there's there's an advantage there to having a top top

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Speaker 2: one or top two on the which we leave your

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Speaker 2: your league mates with such a more scarce supply to

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Speaker 2: choose from. It can give you kind of that really

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Speaker 2: large edge in the position. But no, I'm with you.

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Speaker 2: It's yeah. I had the same thought when I looked

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Speaker 2: up all the stats right when the season ended, and

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Speaker 2: I was like, I thought Wit was just kind of

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Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, you kind of had like a quote

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Speaker 2: unquote good average year, Like if that makes it like

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Speaker 2: he's a good player and this is an average year

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Speaker 2: for him, But I'm like, those are stats we would

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Speaker 2: all love to have, so there's nothing against it, which

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Speaker 2: is why I think, you know, yeah, we don't want

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Speaker 2: to be married to positional scarcity in the first round.

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Speaker 2: But in that case, I think is like, no, we

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Speaker 2: can kind of take it into consideration here.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, we call this maybe a down year for

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Speaker 1: Bobby Wit junior, and he was the tenth overall player

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Speaker 1: according to fangraft, So if that's the floor, he's about

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Speaker 1: as safe as it gets. Now, is it? Are we

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Speaker 1: in agreement that these are the consensus top five? It's Otani,

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Speaker 1: it's Judge, it's Wit, it's Soto, and it's Ramirez. However

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Speaker 1: you want to arrange those last three, Is that the

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Speaker 1: top five.

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Speaker 2: That is my top five. Yeah, pretty easily.

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Speaker 1: Actually, so yeah, I think so too. I think we

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Speaker 1: do have a little bit of a gap, and we're

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Speaker 1: going to talk about that right after. A word from

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Speaker 1: Now we're gonna talk about a couple of pitchers that

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Speaker 1: are going in the first round if they do kind

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Speaker 1: of break up the first group of hitters, because you

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Speaker 1: do see Cherik Schouble with an ADP of seven, Paul

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Speaker 1: Schemes with an ADP of ten, and Garrett Crochet with

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Speaker 1: an ADP of eleven. There's a couple hitters we are

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Speaker 1: going to double back on. But because Scoble is going

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Speaker 1: regularly right after that first group of hitters, it felt

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Speaker 1: appropriate to just talk about those hitters. As are those

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Speaker 1: pictures as a group right here? So, Kelly, I'll start off,

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Speaker 1: is it a good year to take a picture in

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Speaker 1: the first round if you end up drawing the sixth, seventh,

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Speaker 1: eighth pick, is Trek Scouoble or Paul Skins or Garrett

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Speaker 1: Crochet in that you'd consider taking in that range?

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Speaker 2: No, not six, seven or eight or really probably even nine.

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Speaker 2: That next those next four I feel like you need

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Speaker 2: to establish you need to have a hitter that can

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Speaker 2: kind of hold down all five categories if you can

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Speaker 2: get it. Pictures are a much scarier proposition in the

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Speaker 2: first round, just because you know, I look at it

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Speaker 2: like as dumb as it sounds, like, here's a guy

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Speaker 2: he only plays once every five days versus like I

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Speaker 2: can accumulate stats from these other guys you know, pretty

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Speaker 2: much every day. And like you said, it's also I mean,

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Speaker 2: when you talk about injury risk, if we're saying that

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Speaker 2: the picture it's just strictly pictures, you know, Yeah, you're

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Speaker 2: taking on a little bit more of that, I think

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Speaker 2: because they're more likely to you know, have something that

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Speaker 2: gets them shut down for some of the year and

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Speaker 2: then you're looking at your first round pick really not contributing.

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Speaker 2: So for me, not in not in that next like

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Speaker 2: group before, I'm but what about you?

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Speaker 1: I think that I can be talked into it, but

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Speaker 1: I agree that I think I want it to be

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Speaker 1: maybe even just a couple of picks later, like if

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Speaker 1: it's between Scooble and you know, the Corbyn Carrol's Eli

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Speaker 1: Della Cruises, we're gonna talk about that group of hitters

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Speaker 1: coming up. But like you mentioned, we're getting every day

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Speaker 1: type of production. And yes, it's a different scale because

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Speaker 1: you're not getting every day production from any pitcher. But still,

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Speaker 1: if I'm taking a guy in the first round, I

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Speaker 1: kind of want that anchor of he's in there every

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Speaker 1: single day. There's not going to be like, you know,

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Speaker 1: a little bit of an arm strain. That means I

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Speaker 1: for two whole weeks I don't get anything, or three weeks,

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Speaker 1: maybe a month plus, I don't get anything from those pictures.

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Speaker 1: These pictures that we're talking about are all guys who

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Speaker 1: throw incredibly hard, who have logged a lot of innings

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Speaker 1: over the last couple of years, and that does kind

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Speaker 1: of put them in a bracket of are they going

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Speaker 1: to be able to do this again? Scooble's been the

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Speaker 1: number one pitcher two consecutive years. Off the top of

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Speaker 1: my head, I can't remember a pitcher being number one

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Speaker 1: for three consecutive seasons. In fantasy, there does tend to

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Speaker 1: be a little bit of variance. Maybe Kershaw did it.

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Speaker 2: I think Kershaw did it, like the twenty fourteenth, fifteen

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Speaker 2: sixteen that run, But I mean by the end he

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Speaker 2: wasn't worth the first round.

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Speaker 1: So yeah, it's really hard for me to say too

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Speaker 1: much against these guys because they were so dominant last

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Speaker 1: year they carried teams, but now the price is just

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Speaker 1: a little bit more expensive. Schooble and Schemes were going

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Speaker 1: in the first last year, but it was more end

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Speaker 1: of the first. Now it's more mid first. Crochet was

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Speaker 1: pretty firmly a second rounder. Now he is firmly a

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Speaker 1: first rounder. If you're picking on the turn, Kelly, like,

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Speaker 1: let's say you draw a pick at the end, whether

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Speaker 1: it's a twelve team or a fifteen teamer, one pitcher

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Speaker 1: and one hitter. Does that strategy make sense to you

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Speaker 1: this year? You think if you can go, you know,

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Speaker 1: Lindor and Crochet or something like that, would that be

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Speaker 1: something that piques your interest?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I think so. I think it changes twelve to

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Speaker 2: fifteen would change it just a little bit for me,

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Speaker 2: where I'd be way more interested in picking one of

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Speaker 2: these three guys. If I'm in the you know, thirteen,

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Speaker 2: fourteen or fifteenth pick slot, I would I'd be super

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Speaker 2: fine taking one and then you know, get grabbing the

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Speaker 2: hitter on the way back twelve team. I'm a little

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Speaker 2: bit more. You know, if Mike Mayor was here, he

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Speaker 2: would start drilling me on whether pocket aces would be

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Speaker 2: a good strategy, Like, what do you take two of them?

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Speaker 2: But I think that I could definitely justify one of

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Speaker 2: them if I had like an eleven or twelve.

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Speaker 1: Pick, Yeah, and a twelve teamer. I know it's said

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Speaker 1: a lot every year, but it's continues to be true

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Speaker 1: that the guys you're going to find on the waiver

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Speaker 1: wire are just of a higher quality than the guys

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Speaker 1: you're going to find in fifteen teamers. If you're in

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Speaker 1: a fifteen team lead into fifteen team league, excuse me,

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Speaker 1: and you're picking thirteenth, fourteenth, fifteenth, and you take two

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Speaker 1: of these guys, I'd kind of like to see how

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Speaker 1: that bill ends up. And once we start ramping up

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Speaker 1: the box drafts on the Channel, I'd probably end up

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Speaker 1: picking both of them just once or twice, just to

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Speaker 1: see if I could make it work. Because if you

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Speaker 1: do have schoobl and crochet or school schemes, however you

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Speaker 1: want to pair them that set you far and away

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Speaker 1: ahead in the pitching stats and then you can just

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Speaker 1: focus on hitting for the next eight or nine rounds.

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Speaker 1: Is there a clear order for these three? Kelly, I

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Speaker 1: personally have him Scuobale, Crochet just the hair ahead of Skins,

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Speaker 1: because I think that Skeens could potentially win seven games

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Speaker 1: even if he throws two hundred innings, Thank you, Pittsburgh.

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Speaker 1: Crochet just gives me that higher floor of win production

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Speaker 1: if you're not playing in a cat in the league

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Speaker 1: with wins. If it's a points league, then maybe it's

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Speaker 1: a little bit different. But if we're talking standard category here, Kelly,

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Speaker 1: is there a clear order for these three pitchers.

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Speaker 2: I would put them in the same order, and not

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Speaker 2: just because I have a very strong affliction for left

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Speaker 2: handed pitchers, but I think maybe Joe Piece of p

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Speaker 2: has gotten in my head a little bit about Paul Skeens.

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Speaker 2: You know, he throws so hard, and the risk of

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Speaker 2: Tommy John needing a Tommy John surgery for pitchers who throw

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Speaker 2: like that is pretty high. And so with Scuoble and Crochet,

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Speaker 2: I've even kind of already come back from there injuries

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Speaker 2: and are have settled in a little bit. I would

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Speaker 2: take one of those two plus the win equities just

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Speaker 2: not even that's you know, do you can you make

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Speaker 2: an argument that you would want someone like a Yamamoto

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Speaker 2: Overskins just in case like you're talking about they're so bad,

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Speaker 2: So I don't I don't know, but I would take

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Speaker 2: either of the lefties first.

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Speaker 1: From a talent perspective, I think Yamamoto probably should be

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Speaker 1: that fourth pitcher. But he threw so many innings last year.

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Speaker 1: He threw an additional about thirty plus innings. I mean

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Speaker 1: every time he threw in the playoffs it was nine innings.

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Speaker 1: Not something I'm ready to talk about yet. If sorry,

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Speaker 1: I haven't picked up on that. I'll probably never be

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Speaker 1: ready to talk about that though, So we have to

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Speaker 1: just get over it at some point. He was brilliant

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Speaker 1: in the playoffs, but that's a lot of extra innings.

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Speaker 1: He's going to the WBC. The Dodgers, like we mentioned earlier,

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Speaker 1: are not going to be a team that says, yep,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna throw two hundred and twenty innings this year,

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Speaker 1: because it doesn't make sense for them to do that.

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Speaker 1: I think I'm amoto fifth or sixth right now. That

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Speaker 1: just worries me a little bit about how many innings

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Speaker 1: we're going to see, is he gonna be able to

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Speaker 1: stay healthy. It kind of reminds me a little bit

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Speaker 1: of Zach Gallen a couple of years Ago, who was

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Speaker 1: considered a top ten pitcher, Arizona makes a deep run,

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Speaker 1: and then Zach Allen hasn't really been the same. Now,

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Speaker 1: I think Yamoto is a better pitcher, but that's kind

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Speaker 1: of generally where my brain goes after a season with

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Speaker 1: so so many innings, and Yamamoto is a guy that

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Speaker 1: I believe has been pretty close to the first round,

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Speaker 1: and in fact minimum pick is fourteen, and a lot

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Speaker 1: of these leagues are fifteen team leagues on the NFBC,

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Speaker 1: so there are times when people are willing to take

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Speaker 1: him in the first I can't really see it, though, Kelly,

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Speaker 1: I really can't.

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Speaker 4: No.

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Speaker 2: In my only comparison on it was just sort of

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Speaker 2: that idea of not you should never draft for wins.

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Speaker 2: But it's also been a rare day I think, where

430
00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:45,520
Speaker 2: we've had someone so clearly not going to get wins

431
00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:49,320
Speaker 2: as we are with schemes that, especially after this year,

432
00:19:49,359 --> 00:19:51,879
Speaker 2: it's like, like, I'm not suggesting you Almoto is a

433
00:19:51,880 --> 00:19:55,640
Speaker 2: better pitcher, but in terms of what you know, if

434
00:19:55,640 --> 00:19:58,520
Speaker 2: you look at it all around is motive in the conversation,

435
00:19:58,800 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 2: but that was all.

436
00:20:00,520 --> 00:20:05,440
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, Moto, Like talent wise, I think he's in

437
00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:10,080
Speaker 1: that vicinity for sure, but just the situation with the

438
00:20:10,119 --> 00:20:13,600
Speaker 1: Dodgers gives me a little bit of pause. Let's talk

439
00:20:13,720 --> 00:20:16,840
Speaker 1: about those hitters that were kind of mixed into this range.

440
00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:20,280
Speaker 1: Corbyn Carroll adp just shy of eight. It's at seven

441
00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:22,720
Speaker 1: point eight, Ellie de la Cruz at eight point eight,

442
00:20:23,359 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 1: Ronald Acuniet Junior nine point three. He'll be an interesting

443
00:20:26,840 --> 00:20:29,480
Speaker 1: topic of discussion, and then Julio Rodriguez nine point nine.

444
00:20:29,520 --> 00:20:32,119
Speaker 1: So these four players are separated by only two picks

445
00:20:32,160 --> 00:20:35,240
Speaker 1: on average. They really are getting mixed and matched. Let's

446
00:20:35,240 --> 00:20:38,240
Speaker 1: start with Akunya. We know what he is at his best.

447
00:20:38,640 --> 00:20:40,159
Speaker 1: Are we sure we're going to get that? And is

448
00:20:40,200 --> 00:20:42,640
Speaker 1: it worth the risk in the first round passing up

449
00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:45,960
Speaker 1: on other guys here who are all solidified first round

450
00:20:46,040 --> 00:20:48,480
Speaker 1: talents at this point, Kelly, is it worth the risk?

451
00:20:49,680 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 2: It's not for me. I wrote up his profile and

452
00:20:53,880 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 2: looked at all the numbers, and it was that whole

453
00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:59,399
Speaker 2: idea of Okay, if we're embracing the knowledge that anyone

454
00:20:59,440 --> 00:21:02,760
Speaker 2: can get hurt any time, then you know, if you're

455
00:21:02,800 --> 00:21:04,959
Speaker 2: able to let go of that idea, then sure, whatever.

456
00:21:05,760 --> 00:21:07,960
Speaker 2: I'm just I'm a little afraid in terms of like

457
00:21:08,080 --> 00:21:10,720
Speaker 2: his stolen bases or you know, are we going to

458
00:21:10,800 --> 00:21:14,000
Speaker 2: lose one of these things? And we for sure have

459
00:21:14,119 --> 00:21:17,520
Speaker 2: seen his best year, I believe. So for me, I

460
00:21:17,560 --> 00:21:19,639
Speaker 2: don't think we've seen Corbyn Carroll's best year. So I

461
00:21:19,640 --> 00:21:24,120
Speaker 2: would much rather have Carol than a Kunya. And yeah,

462
00:21:24,200 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 2: I think I would just look elsewhere just because of

463
00:21:27,280 --> 00:21:28,920
Speaker 2: the unknown. I don't want him in the first round.

464
00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:31,600
Speaker 2: If he were to somehow fall to the second round

465
00:21:31,600 --> 00:21:34,080
Speaker 2: like on a on the turn, if I have the

466
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:35,720
Speaker 2: last pick, then I would be more interested in.

467
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, he is so hard to figure out who he

468
00:21:40,240 --> 00:21:42,880
Speaker 1: is from a health standpoint, from a profile standpoint, because

469
00:21:42,880 --> 00:21:47,119
Speaker 1: that twenty twenty three season is such an outlier, the

470
00:21:47,160 --> 00:21:49,040
Speaker 1: one that the thing that really stands out, aside from

471
00:21:49,080 --> 00:21:52,200
Speaker 1: the seventy three steals is the eleven percent strikeout right,

472
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,720
Speaker 1: every other year of his career, he's been between twenty three,

473
00:21:55,000 --> 00:21:57,639
Speaker 1: twenty five, twenty six percent, and he goes down to

474
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,439
Speaker 1: eleven percent. He has one of the best fantasy seasons,

475
00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:03,280
Speaker 1: one of the best offensive seasons in history, but he's

476
00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:05,720
Speaker 1: kind of paid the price for it. Maybe I don't

477
00:22:05,720 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 1: know how much of the injuries to the knees you

478
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:10,520
Speaker 1: can attribute to how much he's ran, especially that year,

479
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:13,600
Speaker 1: but ninety five games in twenty twenty five he only

480
00:22:13,600 --> 00:22:16,679
Speaker 1: stole nine bases. Could he get back up into the

481
00:22:16,720 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 1: twenties and thirties. Steamer hasn't projected at twenty one steals

482
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,360
Speaker 1: in one hundred and forty three games, so they don't

483
00:22:22,359 --> 00:22:25,000
Speaker 1: think he'll be running at his peak, and projections are

484
00:22:25,000 --> 00:22:27,360
Speaker 1: generally more conservative. But I kind of have to agree

485
00:22:27,880 --> 00:22:30,560
Speaker 1: that you got to expect maybe twenty steals from him,

486
00:22:30,560 --> 00:22:33,440
Speaker 1: maybe twenty five. If things break right, then maybe you

487
00:22:33,520 --> 00:22:35,879
Speaker 1: get fifty from him, but you can't expect it. I

488
00:22:35,880 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 1: think you can expect good offensive production. But I have

489
00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:41,679
Speaker 1: to agree that his best season is probably in the

490
00:22:41,680 --> 00:22:42,639
Speaker 1: rear view Kelly.

491
00:22:43,600 --> 00:22:45,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's just where I'm looking at. I mean,

492
00:22:45,440 --> 00:22:47,760
Speaker 2: he's a dynamic player. I think I think he will

493
00:22:48,119 --> 00:22:52,560
Speaker 2: contribute in all five categories without any problem. But you know, again,

494
00:22:52,600 --> 00:22:55,280
Speaker 2: like we talked about that that kind of higher floor,

495
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,240
Speaker 2: but like I want my first round pick to be

496
00:22:58,080 --> 00:22:59,639
Speaker 2: I want to be as confident in that pick as

497
00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,199
Speaker 2: IPE possibly can be, and Akunya is not it for me.

498
00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think, you know, because I play in a

499
00:23:06,400 --> 00:23:08,960
Speaker 1: ton of leagues, there might be one or two times

500
00:23:08,960 --> 00:23:11,119
Speaker 1: where I do end up saying, you know what, I

501
00:23:11,160 --> 00:23:13,480
Speaker 1: want to take Ronald Acuni here. I'll take the chance

502
00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:16,040
Speaker 1: on him. One thing I can say about him is

503
00:23:16,080 --> 00:23:18,120
Speaker 1: I can see him being I think the first round

504
00:23:18,240 --> 00:23:21,360
Speaker 1: is fairly solidified in terms of who's going where. If

505
00:23:21,400 --> 00:23:24,399
Speaker 1: we get the spring training and Acunya steals six bases

506
00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:26,680
Speaker 1: in the first week of spring training, I could see

507
00:23:26,680 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 1: people pushing him into it. A group of three at

508
00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:32,880
Speaker 1: the top with Otani and with Judge, maybe jumping over

509
00:23:32,920 --> 00:23:35,720
Speaker 1: Bobby with If we get indications that he is running again,

510
00:23:36,320 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 1: I could see people getting really really excited. And already,

511
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:41,840
Speaker 1: because I mentioned the NFBC shows you the minimum pick

512
00:23:41,880 --> 00:23:44,119
Speaker 1: for a player, the highest they've been drafted, Akuni has

513
00:23:44,119 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 1: already been taken third overall by somebody, by some brave

514
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,920
Speaker 1: soul here in the winter months. Maybe it works out,

515
00:23:49,960 --> 00:23:51,920
Speaker 1: maybe it doesn't, but I could I could really see

516
00:23:51,920 --> 00:23:54,280
Speaker 1: some helium coming for him depending on what we see

517
00:23:54,280 --> 00:23:57,680
Speaker 1: in the spring. I wanted to talk about Julio Rodriguez

518
00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 1: because I feel like the narrative around him is that

519
00:24:00,480 --> 00:24:03,439
Speaker 1: he is kind of not as good as he really is.

520
00:24:03,480 --> 00:24:06,080
Speaker 1: Like Julio Rodriguez is a five win player every year

521
00:24:06,080 --> 00:24:08,400
Speaker 1: he's on a Hall of Fame trajectory. But I think

522
00:24:08,400 --> 00:24:12,399
Speaker 1: it's because he starts off slowly pretty regularly in his

523
00:24:12,440 --> 00:24:14,959
Speaker 1: career that people maybe who zone out at the end

524
00:24:14,960 --> 00:24:18,199
Speaker 1: of the year, maybe the more football oriented people will say, ah, Julio,

525
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,719
Speaker 1: he just never gets it done. Every year of his career.

526
00:24:21,840 --> 00:24:24,560
Speaker 1: It does seem to be drastic first half second half

527
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:28,000
Speaker 1: splits one fourteen WRC plus In the first half in

528
00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:31,080
Speaker 1: his career a seven thirty seven ops not terrible but

529
00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 1: not elite. In the second half a nine to zero

530
00:24:33,800 --> 00:24:36,720
Speaker 1: two OPS with a one p fifty four WRC plus.

531
00:24:36,760 --> 00:24:38,960
Speaker 1: Is this something that we care about at all? Speaking

532
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:41,159
Speaker 1: specifically to head to head players who maybe by the

533
00:24:41,160 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 1: time Julio heats up in a given year, they may

534
00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,360
Speaker 1: already be out of the race for the playoffs. It's

535
00:24:46,400 --> 00:24:48,040
Speaker 1: not something I really care about. But is this something

536
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:49,640
Speaker 1: that head to head drafters need to keep in mind?

537
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:51,879
Speaker 2: You think, Yeah, I was just going to say that

538
00:24:52,520 --> 00:24:54,560
Speaker 2: when I wrote his profile, and basically like, if you

539
00:24:54,560 --> 00:24:57,800
Speaker 2: play in a rotal league, don't hesitate like whatever, who

540
00:24:58,400 --> 00:25:04,080
Speaker 2: Rodriguez across the span noble. I kind of care about it,

541
00:25:04,280 --> 00:25:07,760
Speaker 2: just because, again, if we're picking him in the first round,

542
00:25:08,040 --> 00:25:12,080
Speaker 2: and he has such fluctuations. It's it's the idea of

543
00:25:12,240 --> 00:25:14,199
Speaker 2: anyone who has Julio. Like I think last year we

544
00:25:14,200 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 2: were like anyone who has Julio who made the playoffs

545
00:25:16,560 --> 00:25:20,280
Speaker 2: or are really doing well now? Right, but like did

546
00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 2: they make the playoffs? If your first rounder just does

547
00:25:23,680 --> 00:25:25,879
Speaker 2: this for the first three months of the season, it

548
00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:29,000
Speaker 2: makes it harder to I think, gain that type of

549
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:32,399
Speaker 2: that type of leverage that you want. So in a roto,

550
00:25:32,640 --> 00:25:34,520
Speaker 2: I would have no issue with him at all. In

551
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:36,760
Speaker 2: head to head kind of that same and I know

552
00:25:36,800 --> 00:25:38,240
Speaker 2: I just keep saying it, but I'm like, if he's

553
00:25:38,480 --> 00:25:43,400
Speaker 2: there at the turn, maybe, but like in headhead it's

554
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:45,520
Speaker 2: just difficult to say, yeah, I'm going to pump those

555
00:25:45,520 --> 00:25:48,320
Speaker 2: three months or sit and hate him and then love

556
00:25:48,400 --> 00:25:49,719
Speaker 2: him and then hate him for three months.

557
00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,320
Speaker 1: So he's a guy for me where if I draft him,

558
00:25:52,320 --> 00:25:54,280
Speaker 1: even if he's cold, I know the second he's on

559
00:25:54,320 --> 00:25:56,560
Speaker 1: the bench, that's a three homer, four steel week. So

560
00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:58,760
Speaker 1: it's just so hard on the talent is that high.

561
00:25:59,000 --> 00:26:00,480
Speaker 1: The divide for me is that I used to be

562
00:26:00,560 --> 00:26:02,639
Speaker 1: predominantly a head to head player when I first started

563
00:26:02,640 --> 00:26:05,640
Speaker 1: playing Fantasy wasn't really huge into ROTO. It was more

564
00:26:05,640 --> 00:26:09,439
Speaker 1: head to head points. Now it's almost exclusively ROTO with

565
00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:12,200
Speaker 1: a head to head home league, but I have more

566
00:26:12,200 --> 00:26:13,800
Speaker 1: of the ROTO brain. I remember a couple of years

567
00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: ago Trey Turner's first year in Philly and he was

568
00:26:16,560 --> 00:26:18,720
Speaker 1: gone awful for the first half of the year. They

569
00:26:18,720 --> 00:26:21,040
Speaker 1: did the whole standing ovation thing for him and he

570
00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:22,960
Speaker 1: turned it around. And I remember saying something in the

571
00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 1: off season along the lines of Trey Turner had a

572
00:26:24,960 --> 00:26:26,680
Speaker 1: great year, and I had a lot of head to

573
00:26:26,720 --> 00:26:29,520
Speaker 1: head players saying, no, he did not have a great year.

574
00:26:29,560 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 1: I missed the playoffs. He was my first round pick.

575
00:26:31,480 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 1: He had a horrible year. So there is kind of

576
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:36,119
Speaker 1: a divide between what format you're playing. If you're in

577
00:26:36,119 --> 00:26:38,399
Speaker 1: a ROTO league and somebody does have that mindset if oh,

578
00:26:38,480 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 1: the first half, you don't care if it all comes

579
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:43,439
Speaker 1: in April or August or June or whenever it comes,

580
00:26:43,840 --> 00:26:46,200
Speaker 1: because you know it's coming. With Julio every year, it's

581
00:26:46,359 --> 00:26:49,680
Speaker 1: essentially been a thirty thirty floor and the projections are

582
00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,920
Speaker 1: thirty homers twenty three steals from Steamer. Like I mentioned,

583
00:26:52,960 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 1: a little bit more on the conservative side, anything to

584
00:26:56,080 --> 00:27:01,040
Speaker 1: say about Ellie Dela Cruz Kelly. He was in the

585
00:27:01,080 --> 00:27:03,600
Speaker 1: second half of the sea. Yeah, now we've heard that

586
00:27:03,680 --> 00:27:06,480
Speaker 1: he was dealing with some kind of injury. I believe

587
00:27:06,480 --> 00:27:08,320
Speaker 1: it was to his shoulder. But my god, in the

588
00:27:08,359 --> 00:27:11,159
Speaker 1: second half of the year and eighty WRC plus he

589
00:27:11,200 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 1: was twenty percent worse than league average four second half homers.

590
00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 1: I personally don't really like him as a first round

591
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,879
Speaker 1: or just because the lower batting average floor. I'm not

592
00:27:19,960 --> 00:27:23,240
Speaker 1: really sure if he's a fully polished product yet He's

593
00:27:23,320 --> 00:27:24,800
Speaker 1: kind of a fade for me in the first round.

594
00:27:24,800 --> 00:27:27,440
Speaker 2: I got to be honest, Yeah, I did my first

595
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,680
Speaker 2: series of rankings, and I mean, rankings are what they are,

596
00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,240
Speaker 2: But I don't have him in the first round. In fact,

597
00:27:33,280 --> 00:27:35,800
Speaker 2: I think I had him closer to the third round.

598
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,800
Speaker 2: And it's because of that, Like he went from sixty

599
00:27:39,800 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 2: seven steals to thirty seven steals and that's kind of

600
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,160
Speaker 2: you know, you were thinking like thirty thirty or thirty

601
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:50,600
Speaker 2: fifty or twenty five, Like that number was never below

602
00:27:50,640 --> 00:27:52,919
Speaker 2: fifty in my brain for him stealing last year, So

603
00:27:53,000 --> 00:27:57,439
Speaker 2: like those thirty seven were so short in comparison, he

604
00:27:57,600 --> 00:28:00,200
Speaker 2: struck out less. But are we sure that that that's

605
00:28:00,240 --> 00:28:00,800
Speaker 2: going to stick.

606
00:28:02,240 --> 00:28:02,679
Speaker 1: I don't know.

607
00:28:02,800 --> 00:28:04,679
Speaker 2: I yeah, he was so bad, and if it's an

608
00:28:04,720 --> 00:28:08,639
Speaker 2: injury related thing, that's okay. But you know there's the opposite, right, like,

609
00:28:08,680 --> 00:28:11,240
Speaker 2: he gets you to the playoffs and then he just disappears.

610
00:28:12,119 --> 00:28:15,320
Speaker 2: So for me, don't I don't like him in the

611
00:28:15,320 --> 00:28:17,000
Speaker 2: first round, and I think, you know, it's kind of

612
00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,200
Speaker 2: back to that shortstop thing. There's a couple other shortsteps

613
00:28:19,200 --> 00:28:23,040
Speaker 2: I would definitely rather have than him, So I can't

614
00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 2: rake him in the first round and then be like, no,

615
00:28:24,560 --> 00:28:26,600
Speaker 2: there's here three other short steps I've heard of, So

616
00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:28,960
Speaker 2: you know it's a He's a tough one for me.

617
00:28:30,000 --> 00:28:32,640
Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean I look at the year to year

618
00:28:32,840 --> 00:28:35,520
Speaker 1: played discipline data, and the strikeout rate did go down,

619
00:28:36,040 --> 00:28:37,720
Speaker 1: which is noticeable. It's gone down in each of his

620
00:28:37,760 --> 00:28:39,760
Speaker 1: first couple of seasons, from thirty three to thirty one

621
00:28:39,760 --> 00:28:41,800
Speaker 1: to twenty five. But below the surface, there's not a

622
00:28:41,840 --> 00:28:45,040
Speaker 1: lot to support that. The zone contact rate is about

623
00:28:45,040 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 1: the same it was ninety four and change up to

624
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:51,680
Speaker 1: eighty one. Slight improvement but nothing significant, still below league average.

625
00:28:51,800 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: He chases at the same rate, his swinging strike rate

626
00:28:54,480 --> 00:28:57,120
Speaker 1: is the same, so I don't know that he is

627
00:28:57,280 --> 00:28:59,800
Speaker 1: necessarily the guy that we were thinking he was going

628
00:28:59,840 --> 00:29:02,000
Speaker 1: to be. Now, maybe part of its injury related, but

629
00:29:02,760 --> 00:29:04,960
Speaker 1: I think that there is something to say about him

630
00:29:04,960 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 1: being similar to o'neial Cruise not you know, I know,

631
00:29:07,720 --> 00:29:09,560
Speaker 1: it's kind of lazy. They got the same name whatever,

632
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:12,120
Speaker 1: but it's not that it's that they hit the crap

633
00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:14,680
Speaker 1: out of the ball, but they're ant killers. They hit

634
00:29:14,720 --> 00:29:18,160
Speaker 1: it into the ground constantly fifty one percent ground ball rate.

635
00:29:18,720 --> 00:29:20,560
Speaker 1: It doesn't really matter how hard you hit it. Welsh

636
00:29:20,600 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 1: and I talked a lot about O'Neal Cruz and some

637
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:24,760
Speaker 1: of the problems, and they're very similar. It doesn't matter

638
00:29:24,760 --> 00:29:26,600
Speaker 1: how hard you hit it. If it's on the ground

639
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:28,840
Speaker 1: more than half of the time. He might just be

640
00:29:28,960 --> 00:29:31,240
Speaker 1: a low twenties homer guy unless he can lift the ball,

641
00:29:31,280 --> 00:29:33,320
Speaker 1: and we haven't really seen an indication of that. In fact,

642
00:29:33,440 --> 00:29:36,480
Speaker 1: the launch angle went down a little bit this past year. Again,

643
00:29:36,480 --> 00:29:38,320
Speaker 1: it could be injury related, but when you also look

644
00:29:38,360 --> 00:29:40,600
Speaker 1: at the fact that everybody going around him as a

645
00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:43,920
Speaker 1: batting average boon, he is a guy who could hit

646
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 1: two thirty in a given year. So I think that

647
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,720
Speaker 1: he is of anybody going in the first round probably

648
00:29:48,800 --> 00:29:51,360
Speaker 1: the biggest fade for me. I know it's hard to

649
00:29:51,800 --> 00:29:53,520
Speaker 1: you know, win your draft in the first round, but

650
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:55,400
Speaker 1: you can kind of lose it a little bit if

651
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:59,680
Speaker 1: you really don't get that first round production you're expecting. Guys,

652
00:30:00,000 --> 00:30:02,840
Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros Draft Wizard is something you should be known about.

653
00:30:02,960 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 1: Championships are one at the draft, and that's where the

654
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:07,480
Speaker 1: Draft Wizard gives you the edge. You can sink your

655
00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 1: league in seconds and run realistic mock drafts using your

656
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:12,320
Speaker 1: exact settings. Our tools show you who you should take

657
00:30:12,400 --> 00:30:14,520
Speaker 1: next and the odds your favorite players will still be

658
00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:16,520
Speaker 1: on the board. If you're in a pinch, just ask

659
00:30:16,560 --> 00:30:19,040
Speaker 1: coach for real time advice Taylor to your draft. Plus,

660
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,680
Speaker 1: you can view player news projections and build your own

661
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:24,160
Speaker 1: tier cheat sheet, draft like a pro with the Fantasy

662
00:30:24,160 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 1: Pros MLB Draft Wizard at Fantasypros dot com slash MLB

663
00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,680
Speaker 1: Draft Wizard. Two more tiers to go through here, Kelly,

664
00:30:31,720 --> 00:30:35,000
Speaker 1: this one is an interesting one for me. It's a

665
00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:37,480
Speaker 1: group of guys that I'm not really targeting. I gotta

666
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,320
Speaker 1: be honest. It's the new Faces, it's Junior Camonaro, it's

667
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,360
Speaker 1: Nick Kurtz, and it's Cal Rawley, guys who had explosive

668
00:30:43,440 --> 00:30:46,360
Speaker 1: twenty twenty five seasons. It may be shocking to some people.

669
00:30:46,400 --> 00:30:48,160
Speaker 1: Maybe this is the first podcast you're listening to and

670
00:30:48,240 --> 00:30:51,400
Speaker 1: you're thinking Nick Kurtz is a first round pick. He

671
00:30:51,560 --> 00:30:54,240
Speaker 1: is some of the time. His ADP is right around seventeen,

672
00:30:54,560 --> 00:30:56,840
Speaker 1: but his minimum pick is eight. There are people who

673
00:30:56,920 --> 00:31:00,760
Speaker 1: are that bullish on him. Kelly. Let's are with a

674
00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:03,680
Speaker 1: general look, any of these players deserve to be firmly

675
00:31:03,720 --> 00:31:06,000
Speaker 1: first round targets for you.

676
00:31:06,040 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 2: No, not not firmly. I think you can just again, yeah,

677
00:31:10,400 --> 00:31:13,840
Speaker 2: you pay if you play in one hundred leagues. I wouldn't.

678
00:31:13,880 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 2: I could take Nick Nick Kurtz if it's a fifteen team,

679
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:19,000
Speaker 2: or I could take Nick Kurts in the first. I

680
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 2: I do not want cal Raley in the first I

681
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,480
Speaker 2: think we've seen you know, you don't want to draft

682
00:31:24,480 --> 00:31:27,680
Speaker 2: somebody at their peak and then watch the next year

683
00:31:27,680 --> 00:31:30,240
Speaker 2: go by and Cam and Arrow. I love Cam and Arrow,

684
00:31:30,400 --> 00:31:33,600
Speaker 2: but they're not playing in that park again, and so

685
00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:36,040
Speaker 2: you know when they're moving back to the to the

686
00:31:36,120 --> 00:31:41,200
Speaker 2: hitters U Wasteland. So it's kind of like, I feel

687
00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:43,600
Speaker 2: like that's the thing for me with him, whereas Kurts

688
00:31:43,640 --> 00:31:45,480
Speaker 2: gets to keep playing in the minor league park that

689
00:31:45,520 --> 00:31:48,240
Speaker 2: he can bunt out of. So it's you know, for

690
00:31:48,400 --> 00:31:51,720
Speaker 2: I like Kurts the best of the three, but no,

691
00:31:51,880 --> 00:31:54,000
Speaker 2: I don't think any of them are firm first rounders.

692
00:31:55,040 --> 00:31:57,600
Speaker 1: Yeah. I like Kurts a lot, but at the price

693
00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:01,440
Speaker 1: is just too expensive. There's a certain first baseman who

694
00:32:01,600 --> 00:32:03,960
Speaker 1: plays in Toronto that I'll talk about in a few

695
00:32:03,960 --> 00:32:06,600
Speaker 1: minutes that I think is I mean, just as good,

696
00:32:06,640 --> 00:32:08,280
Speaker 1: if not better than the Kurtz, and he's going ten

697
00:32:08,320 --> 00:32:12,600
Speaker 1: picks later, Cam and Narrow. The home and away splits

698
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 1: last year were quite drastic. He was about a league

699
00:32:15,880 --> 00:32:19,400
Speaker 1: average hitter away from home, and they're playing at George Steinbrennerfield,

700
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:21,360
Speaker 1: the minor league park that the Yankees play at. They

701
00:32:21,400 --> 00:32:24,160
Speaker 1: loaned them out because the trop was damaged. I think

702
00:32:24,160 --> 00:32:27,600
Speaker 1: it was a hurricane. So away from the minor league park,

703
00:32:27,640 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 1: it was a seven to forty three ops one hundred

704
00:32:29,880 --> 00:32:33,000
Speaker 1: WRC plus, exactly league average. At home, he was a

705
00:32:33,040 --> 00:32:38,160
Speaker 1: god nine to fifty four ops one sixty WRC plus. Now,

706
00:32:38,160 --> 00:32:42,080
Speaker 1: the home run distribution was fairly similar, twenty two at home,

707
00:32:42,120 --> 00:32:44,600
Speaker 1: twenty three away. But I really worry about what to

708
00:32:44,680 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 1: expect going back to a poor park. He hit two

709
00:32:47,480 --> 00:32:51,240
Speaker 1: eighteen away from home last year and his on base

710
00:32:51,280 --> 00:32:54,800
Speaker 1: percentage was two sixty six. That's that's bad stuff. Now.

711
00:32:54,920 --> 00:32:57,080
Speaker 1: I do think one last point about him is that

712
00:32:57,160 --> 00:32:59,320
Speaker 1: down the stretch, it did seem like he improved as

713
00:32:59,320 --> 00:33:02,560
Speaker 1: a hitter in August nine four ops nine to sixty

714
00:33:02,680 --> 00:33:06,280
Speaker 1: nine in September and October, and they were playing quite

715
00:33:06,280 --> 00:33:08,440
Speaker 1: a bit on the road by that point of the

716
00:33:08,440 --> 00:33:10,680
Speaker 1: season too, So I think that he did progress as

717
00:33:10,720 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 1: a hitter, But to the point where I want to

718
00:33:12,360 --> 00:33:14,720
Speaker 1: take him in the first round, I can't do it.

719
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:18,640
Speaker 2: No, even with third base being like I think he's

720
00:33:18,800 --> 00:33:20,880
Speaker 2: I think he's a solid second rounder that I'd be

721
00:33:20,920 --> 00:33:23,120
Speaker 2: willing to go with, Like I feel like, yep, I

722
00:33:23,120 --> 00:33:25,160
Speaker 2: think you should be the second third basement off the board.

723
00:33:25,720 --> 00:33:27,560
Speaker 2: I don't have any I have no issue with any

724
00:33:27,640 --> 00:33:29,320
Speaker 2: of that, But I'm just not going to do it

725
00:33:29,360 --> 00:33:31,560
Speaker 2: in the first round, even even in the fifteen teamer.

726
00:33:32,160 --> 00:33:34,000
Speaker 2: Of the three, he's the one that I would take

727
00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:37,320
Speaker 2: the last because of those numbers were so kind of

728
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:39,520
Speaker 2: iffy and we just don't know for sure what we're

729
00:33:39,520 --> 00:33:41,920
Speaker 2: going to get with him. But yeah, with the third

730
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,200
Speaker 2: base I would that bumps him in the second round.

731
00:33:44,280 --> 00:33:45,960
Speaker 2: No problem for me at all.

732
00:33:46,560 --> 00:33:48,719
Speaker 1: Kyle Rawley is also an interesting one, and it kind

733
00:33:48,760 --> 00:33:50,480
Speaker 1: of depends on your format. If you're playing in a

734
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:52,760
Speaker 1: one catcher league, then the price will be a little

735
00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,360
Speaker 1: bit lower than this. The NFBC, it is a two catcher.

736
00:33:55,400 --> 00:33:58,200
Speaker 1: You start two catchers, so think of it almost like

737
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,560
Speaker 1: a super flex Fantasy Football one quarterback league, so you

738
00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,560
Speaker 1: can take your pick later on when you need two

739
00:34:04,600 --> 00:34:07,840
Speaker 1: of them. People start to get aggressive. Cal Rawley could

740
00:34:07,920 --> 00:34:10,000
Speaker 1: have a thirty home run year where he drives in

741
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 1: ninety runs and hits two forty, and it'd be a

742
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,759
Speaker 1: great season, and it'd be a thorough disappointment in the

743
00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:16,480
Speaker 1: first round. If you look exactly what he did in

744
00:34:16,480 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four or twenty twenty three, really good seasons.

745
00:34:19,280 --> 00:34:21,040
Speaker 1: That's probably what you should expect. Is he gonna hit

746
00:34:21,080 --> 00:34:23,080
Speaker 1: sixty again? It's safeg I always call it safe go.

747
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,279
Speaker 1: It's not safe go anymore. It's tea mobile. Is he

748
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:29,319
Speaker 1: gonna hit sixty home runs there? Again? I probably would

749
00:34:29,360 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 1: say not, And I think most people play in one

750
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 1: catcher leagues. If you play in two catcher leagues, it's

751
00:34:35,520 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 1: really tricky because you can end up with Bo Naylor

752
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:40,480
Speaker 1: as your first catcher if you're not careful. But most

753
00:34:40,480 --> 00:34:42,319
Speaker 1: people are playing in one catcher leagues and I think

754
00:34:42,320 --> 00:34:44,640
Speaker 1: you can punt there pretty easily and you don't need

755
00:34:44,680 --> 00:34:46,760
Speaker 1: to take a second round rally or in some cases

756
00:34:46,760 --> 00:34:48,360
Speaker 1: even a first round. Or he is going in the

757
00:34:48,360 --> 00:34:51,160
Speaker 1: first round occasionally. I want nothing to do with it.

758
00:34:52,000 --> 00:34:54,840
Speaker 2: No, I mean I got burned. I got burned so

759
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:58,800
Speaker 2: hard on Gary Sanchez the year after his giant year,

760
00:34:58,960 --> 00:35:01,520
Speaker 2: and I took him I think first pick, second round,

761
00:35:01,640 --> 00:35:04,440
Speaker 2: Like I was on the turn and I was like, yes,

762
00:35:04,520 --> 00:35:09,120
Speaker 2: I'm gonna shore up catcher like they're done right. No,

763
00:35:09,400 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 2: I'm never drafting catchers high again. Just like anytime, anytime

764
00:35:14,239 --> 00:35:16,040
Speaker 2: I even kind of draft one high, I feel like

765
00:35:16,080 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 2: they fall apart. And and Kel is a terrible example.

766
00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:20,560
Speaker 2: I mean, I have him in a lot of keeper

767
00:35:20,640 --> 00:35:22,399
Speaker 2: leagues just because I did. I was like, I'll take

768
00:35:22,400 --> 00:35:24,719
Speaker 2: the thirty homers and I'll figure out badd an average leader.

769
00:35:25,719 --> 00:35:27,320
Speaker 2: But I feel like that's what we're going to go

770
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:30,520
Speaker 2: back to is exactly who he was prior to now,

771
00:35:30,520 --> 00:35:33,840
Speaker 2: which is a great catcher. But I want nothing to

772
00:35:33,920 --> 00:35:35,440
Speaker 2: do with him in the first round. I don't really

773
00:35:35,480 --> 00:35:36,719
Speaker 2: want anything to do with him in the second round,

774
00:35:37,760 --> 00:35:40,200
Speaker 2: so it's it's not worth it, like even in a

775
00:35:40,239 --> 00:35:41,799
Speaker 2: two catcher league for me, if you have to pick

776
00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:44,680
Speaker 2: him that high, I'm like, there, there's a different set

777
00:35:44,760 --> 00:35:47,080
Speaker 2: I would go after than him and someone else.

778
00:35:47,960 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, buying low and selling high is always, you know,

779
00:35:50,640 --> 00:35:52,960
Speaker 1: framed as an in season trading thing, but it also

780
00:35:53,040 --> 00:35:55,840
Speaker 1: applies to drafts a little bit. You know, you're buying

781
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 1: high on these players after a big year. You want

782
00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 1: to be looking in drafts players who maybe had a

783
00:36:00,960 --> 00:36:03,759
Speaker 1: little bit of a disappointing season last year by the

784
00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:07,360
Speaker 1: dip on them when you're buying high. Especially for the

785
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,800
Speaker 1: two guys Kurtz and Camanaro, who both essentially was It

786
00:36:10,880 --> 00:36:13,000
Speaker 1: wasn't technically Cameron Arrow's rookie year, but it might as

787
00:36:13,040 --> 00:36:16,279
Speaker 1: well have been. There's no track record to fall back on.

788
00:36:16,360 --> 00:36:18,480
Speaker 1: At least with Rawley, you can say, okay, I'm getting

789
00:36:18,520 --> 00:36:20,839
Speaker 1: thirty homers here. I know that the raw power, even

790
00:36:20,880 --> 00:36:24,360
Speaker 1: in a bad park, I'm getting thirty homers. Maybe Nick Kurtz,

791
00:36:24,800 --> 00:36:27,239
Speaker 1: you know, hits twenty four homers next year and hits

792
00:36:27,280 --> 00:36:29,439
Speaker 1: two forty even in a good park. We just don't

793
00:36:29,520 --> 00:36:33,719
Speaker 1: have an established baseline of what he really is. You know,

794
00:36:33,840 --> 00:36:35,919
Speaker 1: look at Zach Geloff. After his first year, we thought

795
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:37,719
Speaker 1: he was going to be like a thirty thirty guy,

796
00:36:38,440 --> 00:36:40,920
Speaker 1: and now he's a you know, triple a fodder. Essentially,

797
00:36:41,200 --> 00:36:44,640
Speaker 1: you just never know after a big first year. So

798
00:36:45,280 --> 00:36:47,879
Speaker 1: I think that they're all generally fades. Cam and Arrow

799
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:51,600
Speaker 1: picked fourteen, Kurtz and Raleigh are both going around pick seventeen.

800
00:36:52,480 --> 00:36:53,960
Speaker 1: The last group. We're going to look at his guys

801
00:36:53,960 --> 00:36:57,120
Speaker 1: who are kind of borderline first and second rounders if

802
00:36:57,160 --> 00:36:59,400
Speaker 1: you're looking at their minimum selection. A lot of the

803
00:36:59,440 --> 00:37:02,080
Speaker 1: time they have gone in the first, they're not always

804
00:37:02,120 --> 00:37:03,880
Speaker 1: they're kind of you know, you never really know in

805
00:37:03,920 --> 00:37:05,560
Speaker 1: a given room where they're going to go. It's Gunner

806
00:37:05,600 --> 00:37:09,440
Speaker 1: Henderson ADP of seventeen, Kyle Tucker and ADP of eighteen

807
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:13,440
Speaker 1: and a half, Jackson Curio nineteen point nine, and Vladimir

808
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:17,120
Speaker 1: Guerrero at twenty on the dot, Kelly, are any of

809
00:37:17,200 --> 00:37:20,080
Speaker 1: these guys first rounders for you according to your evaluations

810
00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:20,600
Speaker 1: and rankings.

811
00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 2: I really like Gunnar Henderson for a back, for like

812
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:27,840
Speaker 2: a bounce back year, so I don't think you have

813
00:37:28,040 --> 00:37:30,320
Speaker 2: to take him in the first but he's one of

814
00:37:30,440 --> 00:37:32,680
Speaker 2: the shortstops I would list ahead of La for me

815
00:37:33,719 --> 00:37:36,000
Speaker 2: where I feel like his I feel like his floor

816
00:37:36,080 --> 00:37:39,160
Speaker 2: is safer. I feel like he had that injury last

817
00:37:39,239 --> 00:37:41,880
Speaker 2: year that really kind of kicked off his season poorly,

818
00:37:42,239 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 2: and it took him a very long time to come

819
00:37:44,360 --> 00:37:46,319
Speaker 2: back around. And I just think as long as he's

820
00:37:46,360 --> 00:37:48,520
Speaker 2: healthy that we're going to get a huge bounce back

821
00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:51,279
Speaker 2: year from him. So I'm I'm interested in him again.

822
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:53,120
Speaker 2: I think he's fine in the second round. You don't

823
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:56,520
Speaker 2: have to overpay because I feel like people, you know

824
00:37:56,600 --> 00:37:58,080
Speaker 2: are also going to look at his numbers and kind

825
00:37:58,080 --> 00:38:01,120
Speaker 2: of be like, nah, whatever. And of course the Kyle

826
00:38:01,200 --> 00:38:03,279
Speaker 2: Tucker question is you know where's he going to be

827
00:38:04,600 --> 00:38:06,320
Speaker 2: and how much does that influence Do you think his

828
00:38:06,520 --> 00:38:09,960
Speaker 2: ady people go up when he signed, like if he

829
00:38:10,040 --> 00:38:12,600
Speaker 2: signed somewhere friendly, or or do you think it won't

830
00:38:12,600 --> 00:38:13,040
Speaker 2: matter at all?

831
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:17,520
Speaker 1: I think it's just the nature of fantasy players for

832
00:38:17,600 --> 00:38:19,800
Speaker 1: some reason, in the back of the head when a

833
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:22,000
Speaker 1: player is not signed, even when it's a great player.

834
00:38:22,360 --> 00:38:24,640
Speaker 1: I think, even with Kyle Tucker, it's gonna sound ridiculous,

835
00:38:24,640 --> 00:38:27,320
Speaker 1: but like maybe he'll never sign. Maybe, And when you

836
00:38:27,400 --> 00:38:29,120
Speaker 1: don't know when you see free agent next to a

837
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 1: name we see every year with great players, And it's

838
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,560
Speaker 1: not gonna be a drastic jump because he's already borderline

839
00:38:34,600 --> 00:38:36,759
Speaker 1: for a second rounder. But I think he'll be a

840
00:38:36,840 --> 00:38:38,719
Speaker 1: firm first rounder. And I hope you're listening to this

841
00:38:38,840 --> 00:38:40,640
Speaker 1: in February saying, Joe, what are you talking about? Kyle

842
00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:42,400
Speaker 1: Tucker signed with the Blue Jay six weeks ago? What

843
00:38:42,520 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 1: you as of today? He's a free agent, but I

844
00:38:45,080 --> 00:38:47,799
Speaker 1: think wherever he signs, optimistic blue Jay fan here thinking

845
00:38:47,840 --> 00:38:50,320
Speaker 1: he'll be in Toronto, but what are the other options?

846
00:38:50,440 --> 00:38:53,000
Speaker 1: The Mats, the Dodgers, maybe the Yankees, Like he's not

847
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:58,640
Speaker 1: going to Pittsburgh or you know, to Minnesota or something.

848
00:38:58,760 --> 00:39:01,279
Speaker 1: No shade to Minnesota, but he's not going to a

849
00:39:01,360 --> 00:39:04,040
Speaker 1: team where it's like a poor ish lineup around him.

850
00:39:04,560 --> 00:39:08,120
Speaker 1: He's going to a top five or seven lineup in

851
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:11,279
Speaker 1: the league. So wherever he signs, I think he's going

852
00:39:11,320 --> 00:39:13,120
Speaker 1: to go up a couple picks. I took him in

853
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:15,960
Speaker 1: my first draft. I was picking fourteenth, I think thirteenth,

854
00:39:16,280 --> 00:39:18,799
Speaker 1: and I paired Tucker and Lindor. I don't know how

855
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:20,400
Speaker 1: many times I'm going to be able to do that

856
00:39:20,600 --> 00:39:23,359
Speaker 1: going forward, I think we're righting the window now where

857
00:39:23,440 --> 00:39:26,120
Speaker 1: Kyle Tucker signed, or excuse me, where Wan Soto and

858
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,800
Speaker 1: and Shoho Tani signed, like a couple of weeks into December.

859
00:39:30,239 --> 00:39:32,200
Speaker 1: We'll probably no sooner than later. And if you're getting

860
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:34,000
Speaker 1: him in the second round now, I don't expect that

861
00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:38,680
Speaker 1: to continue. Did you have a preference between Tucker and Gunner?

862
00:39:40,600 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 2: Well, so, I'm a Cubs fan, right, so we I

863
00:39:43,239 --> 00:39:46,799
Speaker 2: had Tucker to cheer or four last year and he's

864
00:39:47,080 --> 00:39:50,839
Speaker 2: he is, he's so good, but you know, his health

865
00:39:50,920 --> 00:39:54,680
Speaker 2: has been an issue a little bit, and even coming

866
00:39:54,719 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 2: over from Houston. Yeah, it's it's this. I don't know

867
00:39:57,760 --> 00:40:00,120
Speaker 2: if he doesn't report it or like, because it's that

868
00:40:00,200 --> 00:40:02,440
Speaker 2: he played with a brooken pinky for a couple of months.

869
00:40:03,400 --> 00:40:06,080
Speaker 2: I yeah, so I think I would still lean Henderson.

870
00:40:07,280 --> 00:40:11,200
Speaker 2: But if I don't like Henderson over Lindor, so like

871
00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:14,919
Speaker 2: that's another one of Lindor's also for me ahead of Ellie.

872
00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:19,320
Speaker 2: Just again consistency, So I would I would go with

873
00:40:19,440 --> 00:40:22,160
Speaker 2: one of those two over Tucker as of right down.

874
00:40:22,239 --> 00:40:24,640
Speaker 2: Now he lands in Toronto, then you know, I think

875
00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 2: you should draft him with your first overall pick. But

876
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,880
Speaker 2: I yeah, for for right now, no, I think I

877
00:40:29,920 --> 00:40:32,640
Speaker 2: would go with one of those two shortstops over him.

878
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:38,640
Speaker 1: Short stop is just so so incredibly deep outfield being

879
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:42,400
Speaker 1: rather scarce in a five outfield or format, especially if

880
00:40:42,440 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 1: it's a three outfielder twelve team league, then it's fine,

881
00:40:45,520 --> 00:40:47,759
Speaker 1: you don't need to be pushing outfielders up so much there.

882
00:40:47,840 --> 00:40:50,319
Speaker 1: But if you're in like a fifteen team, five outfielder league,

883
00:40:50,360 --> 00:40:52,800
Speaker 1: that's a lot of my formats. They go quick and

884
00:40:52,920 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 1: you're starting some pretty ugly names pretty quickly. So Jackson

885
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:58,960
Speaker 1: Surio becomes pretty appealing as a guy who I mean,

886
00:40:59,480 --> 00:41:02,520
Speaker 1: right off the coming up to the major leagues was

887
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 1: not overmatched in any way as a twenty year old.

888
00:41:05,200 --> 00:41:07,280
Speaker 1: He may have even been nineteen when he first debuted.

889
00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:09,040
Speaker 1: But this past season, in one hundred and thirty one

890
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:11,760
Speaker 1: games twenty one and twenty one, he hit two seventy.

891
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:14,120
Speaker 1: He feels like a guy we could be talking about

892
00:41:14,160 --> 00:41:16,600
Speaker 1: in a year as a top six or seven pick.

893
00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:19,240
Speaker 1: He could go thirty five, thirty five, and I wouldn't

894
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:21,680
Speaker 1: be surprised by it. Yeah I was.

895
00:41:21,960 --> 00:41:24,239
Speaker 2: I laughed when I wrote his again, I wrote the

896
00:41:24,239 --> 00:41:26,480
Speaker 2: outfielder profiles, so I've got them all like sitting there

897
00:41:26,560 --> 00:41:28,920
Speaker 2: and yep, he went one and twenty one last year.

898
00:41:28,960 --> 00:41:32,440
Speaker 2: He went twenty one and twenty two in twenty twenty four, Like,

899
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:36,360
Speaker 2: the numbers were scary similar, and he did take a

900
00:41:36,400 --> 00:41:38,880
Speaker 2: little bit of a step back slash. He slashed a

901
00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:42,080
Speaker 2: little bit lower, but his slugging was still one point off.

902
00:41:42,239 --> 00:41:44,919
Speaker 2: So if it continues to grow, I think that, yeah,

903
00:41:44,920 --> 00:41:46,960
Speaker 2: absolutely for sure. I think we get a twenty five

904
00:41:46,960 --> 00:41:50,239
Speaker 2: to twenty five season this year. I would thirty thirty

905
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:54,160
Speaker 2: I think is perfectly possible as well. It just really

906
00:41:54,640 --> 00:41:56,640
Speaker 2: it was so interesting to see those numbers were just

907
00:41:56,760 --> 00:41:59,759
Speaker 2: so completely close. And he played seventeen fewer games last

908
00:41:59,800 --> 00:42:02,160
Speaker 2: year in the year before, so you know he should

909
00:42:02,160 --> 00:42:04,680
Speaker 2: have had more. He just he just wasn't in the

910
00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:07,240
Speaker 2: lineup for as much. But yeah, I think he's easily

911
00:42:07,880 --> 00:42:10,000
Speaker 2: the next outfielder off the board. But I would I

912
00:42:10,040 --> 00:42:11,920
Speaker 2: would pick Tucker over him. If we're going like, if

913
00:42:11,920 --> 00:42:14,120
Speaker 2: we're doing this whole like who would you rather have game? Yeah,

914
00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:15,959
Speaker 2: I would pick Tucker over Tario.

915
00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:18,560
Speaker 1: I think I would go Tucker. And you mentioned the

916
00:42:18,600 --> 00:42:21,640
Speaker 1: injury stuff with Tucker. I don't know what to expect.

917
00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:26,560
Speaker 1: I think that it's fluky stuff. They didn't find a fracture,

918
00:42:26,719 --> 00:42:29,000
Speaker 1: something they missed a fracture, and then the Astros the

919
00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:32,319
Speaker 1: year prior. I don't even remember what exactly was the case,

920
00:42:32,360 --> 00:42:34,040
Speaker 1: but he was expected to be day to day. It

921
00:42:34,080 --> 00:42:35,800
Speaker 1: was like a bone bruise, I think. And he missed

922
00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:38,440
Speaker 1: four months after that. So he's had a bit of

923
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:40,319
Speaker 1: a tough run of luck, which is probably why he's

924
00:42:40,360 --> 00:42:43,120
Speaker 1: in the second round. But another guy who could go

925
00:42:43,480 --> 00:42:45,880
Speaker 1: thirty thirty and I would really be surprised by it.

926
00:42:45,920 --> 00:42:49,600
Speaker 1: I think he's slightly over Jackson Curio, but their their

927
00:42:49,680 --> 00:42:52,200
Speaker 1: neck and neck for a reason. We'll end off with

928
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:55,279
Speaker 1: somebody from my neck of the woods, Vladimiguerrel Junior, with

929
00:42:55,320 --> 00:42:59,080
Speaker 1: his ADP of twenty. Now he is going behind Nick

930
00:42:59,160 --> 00:43:04,080
Speaker 1: Kurtz pretty consistently. Nick Kurtz's ADP is it's getting closer

931
00:43:04,120 --> 00:43:07,240
Speaker 1: actually if you look at all drafts seventeen compared to twenty.

932
00:43:07,400 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 1: But generally speaking Kurtz goes off the board first. I

933
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 1: say that is nonsense because Vladimir Guerrero Junior, after what

934
00:43:14,160 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 1: we saw in the playoffs especially, I think he's going

935
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 1: to be expected to carry things over, maybe not to

936
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 1: that same degree. Where he's hitting a home run every

937
00:43:21,640 --> 00:43:23,839
Speaker 1: other at bat. But even if you just look at

938
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,800
Speaker 1: the Steamer projections, Latimer Guerrero Junior is projected ahead of

939
00:43:26,880 --> 00:43:29,920
Speaker 1: Nick Kurtz in all five of the standard categories, with

940
00:43:30,000 --> 00:43:32,800
Speaker 1: a forty point bump in batting average as well, a

941
00:43:32,960 --> 00:43:35,600
Speaker 1: very hard category to come by later in drafts, I

942
00:43:35,719 --> 00:43:37,600
Speaker 1: might be called a homer. I probably will be. But

943
00:43:37,680 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 1: Vlati will be my number one first baseman entering twenty

944
00:43:40,160 --> 00:43:40,640
Speaker 1: twenty six.

945
00:43:41,560 --> 00:43:43,760
Speaker 2: Yeah, he's my number one first baseman by a fair amount,

946
00:43:43,880 --> 00:43:46,800
Speaker 2: I think. And it's the batting average really kind of

947
00:43:46,840 --> 00:43:50,840
Speaker 2: kicks that over. Just he's again he's hit that stride

948
00:43:50,880 --> 00:43:53,080
Speaker 2: in his career. I drafted him a lot of places

949
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:54,680
Speaker 2: last year, hoping he was going to like do the

950
00:43:54,960 --> 00:43:57,400
Speaker 2: like I'm going to play unbelievable for my contract, And

951
00:43:57,400 --> 00:43:59,640
Speaker 2: then they gave him the contract in April, and then

952
00:43:59,640 --> 00:44:01,200
Speaker 2: he had a power outage for a couple months, and

953
00:44:01,239 --> 00:44:04,320
Speaker 2: I was like, well, that didn't work out perfectly, But

954
00:44:04,520 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 2: his final numbers and the way he played for the

955
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:08,360
Speaker 2: rest of the year, I was just like, yeah, this

956
00:44:08,560 --> 00:44:12,600
Speaker 2: is I think with Freeman kind of starting to decline,

957
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:16,719
Speaker 2: and I just Kurts doesn't have enough of a he

958
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 2: doesn't have enough of a resume yet that I would

959
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:21,560
Speaker 2: feel like, yeah, I'm for sure taking him. I would

960
00:44:21,600 --> 00:44:24,640
Speaker 2: rather have Laddie, and I'm not a homer, so I

961
00:44:24,680 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 2: guess we're in agreement on that.

962
00:44:26,400 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 1: I could maybe even be talked into taking Pete Alonzo

963
00:44:29,120 --> 00:44:32,239
Speaker 1: over Kurtz at this point. I think it's close. It's

964
00:44:32,320 --> 00:44:35,480
Speaker 1: closer than the ADP would suggest, with like a fifteen

965
00:44:35,600 --> 00:44:39,160
Speaker 1: pick difference between them. Kelly, have we missed anybody? I

966
00:44:39,200 --> 00:44:41,360
Speaker 1: think we've covered pretty much everybody who goes in the

967
00:44:41,400 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 1: first round. Have we missed anybody that you wanted to

968
00:44:43,239 --> 00:44:43,680
Speaker 1: chime in on?

969
00:44:44,640 --> 00:44:46,640
Speaker 2: No, that was That's pretty much. That's pretty much the

970
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:49,359
Speaker 2: list and exactly kind of how I broke it down.

971
00:44:49,400 --> 00:44:51,200
Speaker 2: I feel like you and I are in a lot

972
00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:54,400
Speaker 2: of agreement, which makes for a super interesting podcast. I

973
00:44:54,400 --> 00:44:55,960
Speaker 2: should have argued with you and yelled at you more,

974
00:44:56,040 --> 00:44:58,800
Speaker 2: but no, I mean, I think the biggest question is

975
00:44:58,800 --> 00:45:00,120
Speaker 2: what do you want to do with the pictures? And

976
00:45:00,480 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 2: what do you want to do with the shortstops? Those

977
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,640
Speaker 2: are your you know, who are you? Who are you

978
00:45:05,680 --> 00:45:07,560
Speaker 2: willing to take? And who are you sacrificing as a

979
00:45:07,719 --> 00:45:08,160
Speaker 2: result of it?

980
00:45:08,880 --> 00:45:11,279
Speaker 1: I will put it in my calendar for November of

981
00:45:11,320 --> 00:45:13,880
Speaker 1: twenty twenty sixth. Remember to argue with Kelly on our

982
00:45:13,920 --> 00:45:16,080
Speaker 1: next podcast. I hope we get to do one again

983
00:45:16,560 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 1: sooner than that. I want to leave you with one

984
00:45:18,719 --> 00:45:21,640
Speaker 1: final question. Do you have a favorite spot to pick?

985
00:45:21,760 --> 00:45:23,560
Speaker 1: If you have a league where you can choose your

986
00:45:23,719 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 1: draft order? Is it the year where you just want

987
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:27,360
Speaker 1: to pick first and ghetto tawny pick at the end

988
00:45:27,440 --> 00:45:29,719
Speaker 1: and get two of these borderline first round players? Do

989
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:30,560
Speaker 1: you have a preference.

990
00:45:31,440 --> 00:45:33,279
Speaker 2: It's so funny because I played. I played in my

991
00:45:33,360 --> 00:45:36,080
Speaker 2: home league only for a pretty long time, and I'm

992
00:45:36,120 --> 00:45:38,840
Speaker 2: the commissioner of that league, and so I got so

993
00:45:39,160 --> 00:45:41,799
Speaker 2: used to I always we choose our draft pick based

994
00:45:41,800 --> 00:45:43,440
Speaker 2: on how we finished the last year, so like, if

995
00:45:43,480 --> 00:45:44,799
Speaker 2: you finish the last year, get to pick your draft

996
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 2: pick first. And I would always if I could pick

997
00:45:48,560 --> 00:45:52,080
Speaker 2: the last pick of the first round. And at first

998
00:45:52,120 --> 00:45:53,719
Speaker 2: I thought I was doing it because I was commissioner,

999
00:45:53,719 --> 00:45:55,080
Speaker 2: so it was easier for me to do the other

1000
00:45:55,160 --> 00:45:57,480
Speaker 2: things I was doing during the draft because I had

1001
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:01,239
Speaker 2: that long gap in between. But I think at this point,

1002
00:46:01,400 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 2: especially in the first round, I'm like, yeah, give me

1003
00:46:03,239 --> 00:46:06,080
Speaker 2: the I want the twelfth and thirteenth best players off

1004
00:46:06,120 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 2: the board, and I feel like someone always falls to

1005
00:46:10,200 --> 00:46:12,120
Speaker 2: like that area, and then it's like you really kind

1006
00:46:12,160 --> 00:46:15,160
Speaker 2: of almost get two first round picks. So yeah, I'm

1007
00:46:15,480 --> 00:46:16,880
Speaker 2: if you give me the choice, I want to be

1008
00:46:17,000 --> 00:46:17,479
Speaker 2: on the turn.

1009
00:46:18,040 --> 00:46:18,319
Speaker 1: I don't.

1010
00:46:18,880 --> 00:46:21,200
Speaker 2: I'll be first either too. That's fine. I'll take go Tonny,

1011
00:46:21,280 --> 00:46:23,720
Speaker 2: but get me out of that sixth and seventh spot.

1012
00:46:23,760 --> 00:46:26,040
Speaker 2: I hate those. So where do you fall?

1013
00:46:26,440 --> 00:46:28,640
Speaker 1: Well, my first draft, I drew the thirteenth pick, and

1014
00:46:28,760 --> 00:46:30,799
Speaker 1: I thought, oh my god, really like this is where

1015
00:46:30,840 --> 00:46:33,480
Speaker 1: I'm starting off the year. But the more I think

1016
00:46:33,520 --> 00:46:35,440
Speaker 1: about it, and that's that's in a fifteen team league,

1017
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 1: the more I think about it, I kind of like

1018
00:46:37,080 --> 00:46:39,760
Speaker 1: it for that same reason. Maybe you get a Kunya

1019
00:46:39,960 --> 00:46:42,520
Speaker 1: and like Kyle Tucker to start your draft, which I

1020
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 1: feal w could be really really good even if you

1021
00:46:45,520 --> 00:46:48,000
Speaker 1: don't really love Ellie and the low batting average. Maybe

1022
00:46:48,040 --> 00:46:49,719
Speaker 1: you take Ellie and Flattie and then you get the

1023
00:46:49,800 --> 00:46:52,560
Speaker 1: batting average and the stolen bases, kind of taking care

1024
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:55,520
Speaker 1: of an evened oubt. Like there's a lot of cool combinations.

1025
00:46:55,560 --> 00:46:56,920
Speaker 1: At the end of the first I said, I did

1026
00:46:57,000 --> 00:46:59,480
Speaker 1: Lindor and Tucker, but you could do Lindor and Tattoos,

1027
00:46:59,520 --> 00:47:02,600
Speaker 1: so you could do Crochet and Gunner Henderson. There are

1028
00:47:02,640 --> 00:47:05,840
Speaker 1: so many cool combinations and there's a high probability of

1029
00:47:05,920 --> 00:47:09,479
Speaker 1: landing on two first rounders at the end. There, guys,

1030
00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:10,840
Speaker 1: this has been a lot of fun. Make sure you

1031
00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:13,000
Speaker 1: are subscribing to the channel. Let us know below. Who

1032
00:47:13,040 --> 00:47:15,160
Speaker 1: are you taking in the first round? Who are you fading?

1033
00:47:15,400 --> 00:47:17,879
Speaker 1: Who are guys that you think are going way out

1034
00:47:17,880 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 1: of the first round that you think could maybe end

1035
00:47:19,480 --> 00:47:22,759
Speaker 1: up there in twenty twenty seven drafts. That's the way

1036
00:47:22,800 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 1: you gotta look at it, right. Who's gonna perform this year?

1037
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:26,920
Speaker 1: Who are we gonna be taken early next year? But

1038
00:47:27,160 --> 00:47:29,200
Speaker 1: for Kelly Kirby, I'm Joel Rico. We'll talk to you

1039
00:47:29,360 --> 00:47:32,240
Speaker 1: next time right here on the Fantasy Pros Baseball Podcast.

1040
00:47:32,320 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 1: Thank everybody.

1041
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:36,520
Speaker 4: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball Podcast.

1042
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 4: If you love the show, the best freeway to support

1043
00:47:39,239 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 4: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts

1044
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:45,880
Speaker 4: or Spotify, Follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at

1045
00:47:45,920 --> 00:47:48,880
Speaker 4: Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube

1046
00:47:48,880 --> 00:47:51,080
Speaker 4: dot com. Slash Fantasy Pros mlb