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Speaker 2: Eli Lilly, it.
Speaker 3: Had a salespaper. Shares are taken ahead, Yeah, Lily shares
Speaker 3: it down about fourteen percent. There is something overshadowing that.
Speaker 3: For that, we're going to bring in Damien Gardett's Bloomberg
Speaker 3: News health reporter. Damian, thanks for joining us here in
Speaker 3: the studio. So it looks like this experiment, this drug experiment,
Speaker 3: the weight loss pill, and that's the thing here. It
Speaker 3: didn't do as well in the study as Wall Street had.
Speaker 4: Expected exactly so it met its goals and it helped
Speaker 4: people lose weight, which was the whole point of it.
Speaker 4: This was enrolling people with obesity, but that weight loss
Speaker 4: was about eleven percent of body weight, and Wall Street
Speaker 4: was hoping to see something more kin to fourteen to
Speaker 4: fifteen percent, which would match what's seen with the injectible
Speaker 4: GLP one weight loss medicines like with GOVI from rival
Speaker 4: Novo Nordisk. So despite the trial being a success, and
Speaker 4: despite this pill seemingly on the path to winning FDA
Speaker 4: approval and hitting the market as early as next year,
Speaker 4: the reaction, as you mentioned, was dramatically negative formulaly because these,
Speaker 4: you know, single digit percentage differences are perceived to be
Speaker 4: massively important to the ultimate financial future. It's medicine.
Speaker 5: Here's the thing for me knowing someone that does this
Speaker 5: GLP one thing, whatever it is. You gotta reduce the
Speaker 5: side effects of the nausea, and this one didn't. And
Speaker 5: that was the I know people that use it and
Speaker 5: use the injection or saying, boy, when the oral one
Speaker 5: comes out, I'm told that the side effects will be
Speaker 5: dramatically less, which is a huge selling point, and I
Speaker 5: guess that's not what they saw here.
Speaker 4: Basically, in this study, they saw gastro intestinal side effects
Speaker 4: that were comparable to the injectible one, which your point
Speaker 4: could be viewed as a negative. There was a I
Speaker 4: think there was a home run scenario where Lily's pill
Speaker 4: would both lead to a greater percentage of body weight
Speaker 4: loss and as you mentioned, have fewer of the nausea
Speaker 4: vomiting field.
Speaker 5: Plus that were we being the pharmaceutical biotech, and we're
Speaker 5: in the early innings of this GLP type obesity thing.
Speaker 5: I can't imagine why it's not going to get better
Speaker 5: and better and better and better, or I don't know
Speaker 5: the science. Maybe we're already at that limit. We are
Speaker 5: at the limit of this whatever this thing is.
Speaker 4: I don't think so. I mean, in granted, you know
Speaker 4: clinical trials need to play out. Science biology famously unpredictable,
Speaker 4: but I would say the space is moving in two directions.
Speaker 4: One combination medicines that add GLP one to other things
Speaker 4: that can lead to more dramatic weight loss, and then
Speaker 4: two more convenient things like pills that you can take
Speaker 4: that maybe don't have the same effect on body weight,
Speaker 4: but that would be cheaper to manufacture, presumably cheaper to
Speaker 4: acquire for patients because these injectables have list prices of
Speaker 4: inexcess of one thousand dollars a month. So in the
Speaker 4: best case scenario, let's say five years from now, there
Speaker 4: will be an armamentarium of weight loss medicines. If you
Speaker 4: an armamentarium, which I think I stumbled over a whole
Speaker 4: bunch of them, like in an armory. Let's say so
Speaker 4: a physician yes, a physician, could you know, diagnose a
Speaker 4: patient and say, for some people you will need an
Speaker 4: injectable that you can lose twenty five percent of your
Speaker 4: body weight on. For some people you may be good
Speaker 4: with an oral medicine where you lose a single digit
Speaker 4: or even ten percent of your body weight, or mixing
Speaker 4: and matching using one for maintenance and the upside being
Speaker 4: theoretically this will one become a massive one hundred billion
Speaker 4: dollar market for the pharmaceutical industry, but two have knock
Speaker 4: on beneficial effects for people's health.
Speaker 3: So where do we stand with the pills? I mean,
Speaker 3: what other competition is out there? Who else is working
Speaker 3: on one that we should keep an eye on as well.
Speaker 4: So Novo Nordisk has an oral version of the injectable
Speaker 4: week govy. It is not as convenient or I would
Speaker 4: say innovative frankly, as Lily's pill, because it's basically just
Speaker 4: a bunch of wgovy shoved into a tablet that you
Speaker 4: eat and it sits in your gut and administers the
Speaker 4: drug there. And that it comes with restriction. You can't
Speaker 4: take it with food, you have to do it in
Speaker 4: the morning. It's not really as attractive a commercial product,
Speaker 4: I think it's fair to say as Lilies, but there
Speaker 4: are other oral options from smaller biotech companies that we
Speaker 4: may see them progress to the market. There's also a
Speaker 4: lot of m and a speculation around these firms that
Speaker 4: a company like Pfizer, for example, which kind of crashed
Speaker 4: and burned with its first attempt to make a GLP
Speaker 4: one pill, might acquire them. So this is very much
Speaker 4: a space to watch. I would say a year from now,
Speaker 4: it's quite likely that it will look demonstrably different than
Speaker 4: it looks right now.
Speaker 5: So as I look at the PGeo table, which kind
Speaker 5: of breaks down where the revenue comes from Lily, where
Speaker 5: is the cardio metabolic health is at the sector again,
Speaker 5: now that's that sector is sixty five percent of total revenue.
Speaker 5: So that's a big deal for Lily.
Speaker 4: And that's not inclusive of this oral drug which isn't
Speaker 4: even approved yet. So I mean, as you mentioned these
Speaker 4: data overshadowing, Lily had like a blowout quarter. They're approved
Speaker 4: medicine for obesity and the same thing is sold for diabetes.
Speaker 4: Both of them beat estimates, they raised revenue guide and
Speaker 4: profit guidance. They're doing very very well, but I think
Speaker 4: the stock reaction today is sort of an illustration of
Speaker 4: just how much is baked into the potential of these medicines.
Speaker 4: Lily has flirted with being a trillion dollar valuation company.
Speaker 4: They're not there anymore, but that's strictly a reflection of
Speaker 4: what people believe will come of this class of medicine.
Speaker 3: So, speaking of the potential, then, so why is the
Speaker 3: science behind these pills? Why is it such a challenge.
Speaker 4: I mean, getting what you can do in an injectable medicine,
Speaker 4: getting that down into a pill has been deviled the
Speaker 4: drug industry for many, many years because there are safety concerns,
Speaker 4: there are dosing concerns. The ideal product is like a
Speaker 4: superpill that prolongs your life and et cetera. But there's
Speaker 4: a reason we have so few of those, and it's
Speaker 4: basically just the trial and error and the unpredictability of biology.
Speaker 4: And I think these companies are always trying to bend
Speaker 4: the curves of failures. But like it remains true that
Speaker 4: roughly one in ten medicines actually makes it from the
Speaker 4: lab to the pharmacy.
Speaker 5: My freshman year college chemistry lab partner went on to
Speaker 5: become like this crazy smart dude played a wide receiver
Speaker 5: in the NFL. Then he became a signist an astronaut
Speaker 5: space shuttle crazy and I was like, I was like, dude,
Speaker 5: can you carry me in this chemistry classic because I'm
Speaker 5: not really into it? And he was super smart. So
Speaker 5: and then that he didn't peak there, he didn't He
Speaker 5: didn't peak in the NFL. I guess he peaked the
Speaker 5: flying around in space.
Speaker 1: So good.
Speaker 5: There. What's the next thing that you're looking for in
Speaker 5: a pharmer's space here? What's the next big mover here
Speaker 5: on a company level that you're looking.
Speaker 4: At for weight loss specifically or just more broadly.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think everything.
Speaker 4: Actually MRK is working on. Speaking of pills, they're working
Speaker 4: on a pill version that would be basically a superstat
Speaker 4: It would lower bad cholesterol to a level that cannot
Speaker 4: be done with oral medicines that exists right now, and
Speaker 4: that it kind of follows this same trajectory that I
Speaker 4: think we're seeing big pharma company years ago after statinshe
Speaker 4: generic kind of moved away from primary care medicines because
Speaker 4: it's difficult, you have to run big trials, it's expensive.
Speaker 4: If they fail, you lose a lot of money. And
Speaker 4: move toward oncology and rare diseases. I feel like we're
Speaker 4: seeing and I think GLP one was sort of the
Speaker 4: trojan horse in some ways of this. We're seeing the
Speaker 4: major drug companies move back toward primary care, trying to
Speaker 4: invent medicines that would be taken by millions of people
Speaker 4: and they would actually address the number one killer of Americans,
Speaker 4: which is heart disease. So I think that's a trend
Speaker 4: that I'm following, and we'll get data from that murk pill,
Speaker 4: I believe by the end of the year.
Speaker 5: All Right, I mean you and Sam Fizzelli, you guys,
Speaker 5: do whatever you do in that healthcare thing. Just tell
Speaker 5: us when something important is happening. Damien Gardelli, a healthcare
Speaker 5: reporter for Bloomberg News, joinings life here in our Bloomberg
Speaker 5: Interactive Broker studio. You know, back in my trading days, man,
Speaker 5: I'd go to my healthcare guy, I say, hey, can
Speaker 5: I buy Lily today? It's down fifteen percent. I mean,
Speaker 5: it feels like an entry point to me, and hopefully
Speaker 5: Mianas will have a good idea what's going on space.
Speaker 3: I mean, you hear the GLP ones are supposed to
Speaker 3: lower cholesterol, but then you have other He was just
Speaker 3: talking about another cholesterol, yes, and coming out.
Speaker 5: But I mean these GLP things have been I see
Speaker 5: a new story every day. How they help this, they
Speaker 5: cure this, they lowered the risk of this. It's not
Speaker 5: just so I don't know what's going. Healthcare space is
Speaker 5: a tough, tough one to invest in. I think that's
Speaker 5: why there's mds and PhDs all over the place in
Speaker 5: investment firms investing in that space.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
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Speaker 5: Almost the last time you went to a movie at
Speaker 5: a movie theater, oh, it was a.
Speaker 3: Tough We were supposed to go to the other weekend
Speaker 3: and see like Superman, but that didn't happen. I watch
Speaker 3: a lot of them, like I stream them, like for example, Minecraft,
Speaker 3: like I saw at home and then I didn't go
Speaker 3: to the theater to see it. Right, that's what like
Speaker 3: Warner Brothers is dealing.
Speaker 5: Yeah, exactly right, So but I'm Warner Brothers Discovery they
Speaker 5: put out results. I don't know. I mean, my expectations
Speaker 5: are really low for this company, but they I thought
Speaker 5: they were pretty decent stocks. Trading off a little bit here,
Speaker 5: let's get the latest on what's happening at One Brother's
Speaker 5: Discovery and even maybe a little bit on our friends
Speaker 5: at Peloton. Jen Sherman's my buddy there. She's a person
Speaker 5: I drink with. Of course, either wrong anah in us.
Speaker 5: I'm not gonna do it with some dude. I mean,
Speaker 5: you know, why would you do that. She's your friend
Speaker 5: in your head exactly exactly where friends so githerrang and nothing.
Speaker 5: She actually is the analyst on all this media stuff.
Speaker 5: She's down there in our Princeton University sprawling campus. Hey, Gaeta,
Speaker 5: talk to us about Warner Brothers Discovery, because there are
Speaker 5: like a lot of traditional media comedies trying to make
Speaker 5: that transition from the good old days of linear television,
Speaker 5: cable television, all that kind of stuff to the streaming world.
Speaker 5: What did you learn from Warner Brother's Discovery.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so, Paul, what we really saw was, you know,
Speaker 2: a continuation of the same. So the streaming business is
Speaker 2: doing really well. The studio business is doing extremely well.
Speaker 2: But TV Networks, which is really eighty percent off their ibadah,
Speaker 2: is still struggling, and we saw a twenty five percent
Speaker 2: slump in their TV Networks ibadah. So you know, that
Speaker 2: continues to be a pain point. And while there was
Speaker 2: initially some you know, obviously some excitement about the turnaround
Speaker 2: and both the streaming and the studio businesses, the fact
Speaker 2: that there is absolutely no respite inside for TV is
Speaker 2: extremely distressing and that's.
Speaker 3: Why their shares are down like seven percent. Okay, So
Speaker 3: talk to me about the companies in the process of
Speaker 3: splitting itself into two separate entities, right, So where do
Speaker 3: we stand with that? What are the pros and cons
Speaker 3: that go along with that?
Speaker 2: Yeah, so this is you know, one of the best
Speaker 2: ways for them, or at least you know, the fact
Speaker 2: that they've kind of decided to do this really follows
Speaker 2: a pattern in most of the media landscape where they're selling.
Speaker 2: They're kind of separating the low growth assets from the
Speaker 2: slightly higher growth assets. The low growth or the low
Speaker 2: growth assets being the TV business. That for Warner Brothers,
Speaker 2: that split will happen in the middle of next year,
Speaker 2: and really the strategy here is to unlock shareholder value
Speaker 2: because you know that, you know, they combine their Warner
Speaker 2: Brothers business with a Discovery you know networks. Of course
Speaker 2: that really hasn't gone anywhere. And so finally everybody in
Speaker 2: the in the in the media world is doing this
Speaker 2: where they're kind of separating out the secularly challenged TV networks.
Speaker 6: Uh.
Speaker 2: The only problem here is that we still really don't
Speaker 2: have a very clear strategy. So they have to really
Speaker 2: outline that, and I think that is part of the
Speaker 2: reason why we're also kind of seeing this the decline
Speaker 2: and shares this morning.
Speaker 5: All Right, they had the studio had a good quarter here,
Speaker 5: a couple in some some hits like Sinners, a Minecraft movie,
Speaker 5: Final Destination, Bloodlines and things like that. Talk to us
Speaker 5: about the studio and maybe it's kind of it's forward slate.
Speaker 5: How does that look for the company?
Speaker 2: The forward say it, Actually, it looks really good, Paul.
Speaker 2: You know, they just had their major DC reboot with Superman. Uh,
Speaker 2: and they're what they're really trying to do now going forward.
Speaker 2: I mean, they didn't have a Superman movie for years.
Speaker 2: Their DC strategy was in a mess. You know, it
Speaker 2: was a mess. They had so many movies out there,
Speaker 2: it was all confusing lines. But I think finally they've
Speaker 2: kind of they're going to write that ship. So they've
Speaker 2: committed to a pretty strong slate of about twelve to
Speaker 2: fourteen movies going forward. The big thing for them is
Speaker 2: to really get Studio EBITDA to about three billion dollars,
Speaker 2: and they seem to be well on their way. I mean,
Speaker 2: last year was a complete mess. This year definitely much
Speaker 2: much better. They're actually if you just look at box
Speaker 2: office performance overall, they already have about a twenty five
Speaker 2: twenty six percent share of the domestic box office, so
Speaker 2: they're only very slightly behind Disney. So they're definitely doing
Speaker 2: well and their strategy is working. They have a pretty
Speaker 2: good content pipeline.
Speaker 3: All right, let's switch over at Peloton. How is this
Speaker 3: company doing? I mean, is there subscribers? Are they continuing
Speaker 3: to come in? Are people still using this equipment as
Speaker 3: much as they used to?
Speaker 2: So for Peloton, really and the story has not been
Speaker 2: so much on subscribers, unfortunately. It has really been more
Speaker 2: about trimming the fat literally at the company and kind
Speaker 2: of getting profits into full focus. And if you just
Speaker 2: saw this quarter's results and what they reported for the
Speaker 2: full year. For fiscal twenty twenty five, I mean, the
Speaker 2: progress that they've made in terms of profitability has been
Speaker 2: absolutely outstanding. So they reported adjusted IBADAH that came in
Speaker 2: about nineteen twenty percent higher than guidance and consensus their
Speaker 2: forward guidance, So fiscal twenty twenty six suggested EBITDA guidance
Speaker 2: is also was also way above consensus. So the way
Speaker 2: that they're kind of optimizing their operating expenses has been
Speaker 2: absolutely stellar. You know, just everything in terms of workforce reduction,
Speaker 2: in terms of inventory management, you know, op X costs,
Speaker 2: marketing expenses, everything has been absolutely top notch. The only
Speaker 2: problem for them is reintegrating demand. And that's where you know,
Speaker 2: we're kind of really kind of seeing this disconnect because
Speaker 2: the financial metrics are really good, but the subscriber metrics,
Speaker 2: unfortunately are not.
Speaker 5: Is there a credible plan there to reignite growth there?
Speaker 5: I just kind of it feels like, you know, everybody
Speaker 5: who's got one's got one. How did they think talk
Speaker 5: about that part of the story.
Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's really going to be a little bit hard.
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, on the margin, I think they can
Speaker 2: do some things to kind of reignite a little bit
Speaker 2: of the hardware sales, but in terms of a sustainable
Speaker 2: go forward strategy that is really still pretty unclear. Paul, So,
Speaker 2: I think right now, what they're really trying to do
Speaker 2: is again really get you know, more costs out of
Speaker 2: the system, maybe increase subscription prices a little bit, so
Speaker 2: kind of pad that top line a little bit. But
Speaker 2: in terms of you know, the overall subscription growth story,
Speaker 2: I'm not so sure that's really going to be a
Speaker 2: volume story. I think it's it's going to you know,
Speaker 2: focus more on kind of rates and price and improving
Speaker 2: pricing and either how much.
Speaker 3: Of that, you know, cutting costs includes cutting jobs.
Speaker 2: Yeah, they did actually you know, announce a six percent
Speaker 2: workforce reduction as well, so a lot of it is
Speaker 2: going to come down to cutting jobs.
Speaker 5: All right, Just one quick thing on Warner Brothers Discovery.
Speaker 5: What's the timing of this separation it's.
Speaker 2: Going to So they announced the formal plan in June.
Speaker 2: It's going to happen by Midge twenty twenty six, so
Speaker 2: by middle of next year.
Speaker 5: Okay, all right, we'll keep an eye on that. Gith
Speaker 5: Throng and at and she covers all the media stuff
Speaker 5: for Bloomberg intelligence down there for them to display.
Speaker 3: I mean, you see Comcasts do it right.
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think it is simply because you hope that
Speaker 5: the two parts have more total value than they do together,
Speaker 5: and so you're concerned that the high growth business is
Speaker 5: being pulled down by the slower growth cable networks. So
Speaker 5: you split them out and see how far this, you know,
Speaker 5: the streaming business in the studio can fly, I guess
Speaker 5: is kind of the thought there. So we see it
Speaker 5: all the time and lots of different industries, and there
Speaker 5: was a time, you know, when all these assets made
Speaker 5: sense to be together. But the fortunes, the economic fortunes
Speaker 5: of the cable network and broadcast network business have been
Speaker 5: permanently damaged, and it gets worse every year. So you know,
Speaker 5: you just got to cut those out and see how
Speaker 5: they trade on a standalone basis. Maybe ultimately they get acquired,
Speaker 5: or maybe some of these networks maybe get together the
Speaker 5: Comcast stuff. Maybe we'll get together with the Warner brother
Speaker 5: stuff and just become bigger and get some cross energy.
Speaker 5: So we'll see how that plays out. But we're seeing
Speaker 5: that across the media space.
Speaker 6: Here.
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Speaker 5: Intel coming into the crosshairs of President Trump day, particularly
Speaker 5: the CEO saying he's got to go. I mean, I
Speaker 5: have no idea where that came from. I'm guessing Man
Speaker 5: Deep Sing is read up on this. If nothing else,
Speaker 5: Man Deep seeing senior tech analyst from Bloomberg Intelligence, President
Speaker 5: Trump calling for this CEO of Intel to quit not
Speaker 5: He says he's conflicted. Can you give us the backstory
Speaker 5: what's going on here? As far as you know?
Speaker 6: I mean, most likely it has to do with the
Speaker 6: minority investments that the Intel CEO has in companies within China,
Speaker 6: and they may have some ties to the Chinese government
Speaker 6: in some way. And look, he used to be a VC,
Speaker 6: so this guy has had multiple roles. He used to
Speaker 6: be the CEO of Cadence, then he was a VC
Speaker 6: with you know, multiple investments in startups across the globe.
Speaker 6: So I'm guessing the board Intel board before they appointed
Speaker 6: him as the CEO, did their due diligence in terms
Speaker 6: of looking at all these aspects, and to my mind,
Speaker 6: I mean, it obviously is a surprise that, you know,
Speaker 6: I mean, his credentials are being questioned here given the
Speaker 6: reputation he has in the valley.
Speaker 7: Is the American citizen I'm not sure, probably, but I mean,
Speaker 7: those are the type of things he would expect the
Speaker 7: board to do their due diligence on.
Speaker 6: For a company like Intel, which has had multiple CEOs
Speaker 6: and clearly is looking for a big turnaround, A lot
Speaker 6: of people felt this guy had the credentials, you know,
Speaker 6: in terms of having the experience to turn around a
Speaker 6: big ship like Intel. And I mean, so far, it's
Speaker 6: too early to call out how good of a job
Speaker 6: he was doing. Still early days with his strategy, but
Speaker 6: clearly he has plans to keep the foundry business and
Speaker 6: turn around the core chip design business, and he has
Speaker 6: raised a lot of cash. So I would say still
Speaker 6: early days with his strategy. But this clearly puts, you know,
Speaker 6: a wrench in terms of his strategy.
Speaker 5: Just as per Wiki Wikipedia, it says that he is
Speaker 5: a Malaysian born American business executive. So that's all I got.
Speaker 3: Well, something you brought up that they probably you know,
Speaker 3: people already knew about this. You know, this is no secret.
Speaker 3: My question is why now? Why bring this up?
Speaker 2: Now?
Speaker 3: Why the timing now? And the company has been struggling, right,
Speaker 3: it's chairs now or down what they're down three percent
Speaker 3: this morning? But why do you think this has taking
Speaker 3: place now?
Speaker 6: I think it's because Senator Tom Cotton, he wrote a
Speaker 6: letter to the Intel board. They obviously found out some
Speaker 6: things that he the Senator highlighted, you know, the links
Speaker 6: to some of the Chinese companies, small companies that had
Speaker 6: ties to the Chinese government. And I think the board
Speaker 6: probably has to come up with an answer in terms
Speaker 6: of the you know, the concerns that were raised by
Speaker 6: a senator.
Speaker 5: Has the company responded at all to the senator or
Speaker 5: the president?
Speaker 6: I mean they have in terms of the initial response,
Speaker 6: But to the best of my knowledge, I think the
Speaker 6: board clearly is defending uh, you know, the credentials of
Speaker 6: their CEO and uh there's nothing here that would put
Speaker 6: a question mark around the future of libbutan in terms
Speaker 6: of running Intel at least for now.
Speaker 2: Well, that's what I say.
Speaker 3: Do you think he would would step down? How long
Speaker 3: has he been in a position?
Speaker 6: Not few months?
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly? Yea.
Speaker 5: So how is the Intel call here? I mean the
Speaker 5: stock obviously underperforming, under underperforming pretty dramatically here. It's you know,
Speaker 5: flat year to date, but you know, relative to Tech
Speaker 5: that's just losing ground.
Speaker 6: Germanic they are. And this brings back, you know, some
Speaker 6: of the discussions we were having a few months back
Speaker 6: before Libbutan was appointed as a CEO that Intel may
Speaker 6: be broken down, Qualcom may be looking to buy parts
Speaker 6: of Intel, and then the foundry business would be separated.
Speaker 6: I feel if for some reason this CEO has to
Speaker 6: step down and you know, so someone else is appointed,
Speaker 6: then it brings all those discussions back into play, because
Speaker 6: so far, what lib Bhutan had maintained was he wants
Speaker 6: to keep the foundry business. He wants to turn around
Speaker 6: through a strategy that involved keeping the chip design and
Speaker 6: the foundry business together. But if that wasn't to be
Speaker 6: the case, and if there's somebody new, then I would
Speaker 6: say that whole aspect around breaking up Intel comes back
Speaker 6: into play.
Speaker 7: All right.
Speaker 5: Stock is down three percent today, so it is feeling
Speaker 5: the impact of that many i've seen. Thank you so
Speaker 5: much for joining us, Senior techanost for Bloomberg Intelligence. Joining
Speaker 5: us here in our studio again. The headline Trump urges
Speaker 5: quote conflicted Intel CEO ten to resign immediately.
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