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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene with

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Speaker 1: David Gura. Daily we bring you insight from the best

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Speaker 1: of economics, finance, investment, and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance

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Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, Bloomberg dot Com, and of course,

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Speaker 1: on the Bloomberg Gabrielle Santos, as I mentioned, is here

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Speaker 1: with this from GPM Funds. She's the chief global strategist

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Speaker 1: and we're happy to have her here. She's drinking hot

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Speaker 1: coffee because the Holy East Coast is free. I was

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Speaker 1: noticing that hockey season Tom Keene has wandered in the

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Speaker 1: studio and his Montreal Canadians jersey. Um, he's he's ready

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Speaker 1: for hockey season. Uh. When you look at uh, the

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Speaker 1: markets have been down, up, down, but not going rocketing

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Speaker 1: higher as they have been as we get deeper and

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Speaker 1: deeper into tax reform. Is that because people are holding

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Speaker 1: their breath at this point? Or has sentiment kind of turned?

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Speaker 1: This was a discussion that we were having on Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Television yesterday and what did you miss? Um? Has sentiment turned?

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Speaker 1: Are we now thinking maybe it won't pass until you've

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Speaker 1: got to start pricing that in or is it too early.

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Speaker 1: So I think that one of the first questions is

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Speaker 1: is corporate tax reform priceton already we would say I

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Speaker 1: not really know. Um that the rally we've seen so

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Speaker 1: far this year has been much more about the trends,

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Speaker 1: the good global trends we're seeing in terms of growth

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Speaker 1: and earnings as well as stability and energy as well

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Speaker 1: as the dollar, rather than some huge expectation of corporate

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Speaker 1: tax reform happening. So I don't think it's on an

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Speaker 1: unwind of expectations around tax or anything like that. It

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Speaker 1: could be something just innocuous, like investors wanting to take

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Speaker 1: a little bit of profit off the table, right, especially

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Speaker 1: receptors that how done super well this year, like technology,

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Speaker 1: which is the sector for example, that was down yesterday,

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Speaker 1: rather than something really really bad. I'm also when a

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Speaker 1: lot is going to get wrapped up in December, we

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Speaker 1: have tax reform will either pass or won't get could

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Speaker 1: get delayed. But you've got the possibility of a government shutdown,

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Speaker 1: and you get the dead ceiling which will be attached

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Speaker 1: to that even if it's not solved. And it's the

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Speaker 1: end of the year and it's been a heck of

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Speaker 1: a year. So are people actually going to invest in December?

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Speaker 1: Are we going to start seeing people get cautious and

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Speaker 1: say I'm gonna do that and I'm gonna take the

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Speaker 1: month off. I'm not sure. I think it depends on

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Speaker 1: where you've been so far this year. If if you've

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Speaker 1: been in the market the entire year, maybe you do

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Speaker 1: kind of trimmed down a little bit. Your your position

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Speaker 1: has probably gone a little bit too big. By now

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Speaker 1: right we're up fift percent. But for those investors that

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Speaker 1: still haven't participated in the market, and there are actually

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Speaker 1: a lot of them, maybe there is still a desire

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Speaker 1: to get in the market. And we talked about selling

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Speaker 1: May and go away, and Mike, your question is dead on.

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Speaker 1: I mean, sell you know, before Thanksgiving and run run.

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Speaker 1: Let's come back to that in a minute. Good morning.

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Speaker 1: If you want Bloomberg surveillance in institutions people that are behind,

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Speaker 1: is there a level of panic this year that I

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Speaker 1: need to catch up in six weeks. I've never bought

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Speaker 1: that song and dance, but it's always there to people

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Speaker 1: actually do that. For institutional clients, I would say, especially

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Speaker 1: when it comes to equities, that they've been pretty well

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Speaker 1: positioned going into the year. What makes me think much

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Speaker 1: more about people wanting to actually chase or participate in

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Speaker 1: this performance is much more in the individual level, where

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Speaker 1: so many investors for the last eight nine years have

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Speaker 1: still not participated in the rally. So I think there's

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Speaker 1: this sense of, oh my gosh, I'm not participating in

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Speaker 1: this enthusiasm rally. The way this works is as on

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Speaker 1: the West Side two nights ago, and I walked in

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Speaker 1: the Apple store because I walked by it and there

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Speaker 1: was the iPhone X and I held it my hand. Wow,

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Speaker 1: wow Wow. So do I come out the triple leverage

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Speaker 1: all cash fun and like you know, double margin Apple

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Speaker 1: to get myself to January to December? Idea? The problem

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Speaker 1: is is going to take every penny you made this

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Speaker 1: year to buy an iphoned Doug cass is going in

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Speaker 1: Florida top of market right there. Tom, We're starting to hear.

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Speaker 1: It's interesting because you're talking about all these people who

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Speaker 1: haven't participated, and of course the old saws once retail

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Speaker 1: comes in, it's over. But you're starting to see some

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Speaker 1: of the pros talk about not necessarily a correction or

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Speaker 1: anything like that, but that maybe we're gonna top out

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Speaker 1: for a little while. I noted, uh, and I have

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Speaker 1: the I brought the story in here somewhere, and I

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Speaker 1: can't find it right now. But people are looking at

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Speaker 1: high yield and how it's kind of rolled over, and

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Speaker 1: they say that's a sign that the stock market is

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Speaker 1: going to start coming to an end as well. Are

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Speaker 1: you seeing any of those tea leaves that you're starting

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Speaker 1: to say, hey, maybe there's something to look at here

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Speaker 1: coming to an end? No, I mean, it's always about

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Speaker 1: the kind of earnings growth we're seeing, which is still

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Speaker 1: incredibly solid even pre any sort of corporate tax reform implementation,

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Speaker 1: which is which is really a great sign um, and

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Speaker 1: that's really the fundamental driver of the market, right, So

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Speaker 1: as long as the economy keeps growing, earnings keep growing,

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Speaker 1: the market should continue to grind higher. But I do

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Speaker 1: think that we should be expecting some sort of correction,

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Speaker 1: absolutely right. The average going back to would be to

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Speaker 1: have a ten percent correction every single year, and the

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Speaker 1: maximum we've had this year has been three percent. So

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Speaker 1: definitely a correction would be very possible. Probabilities high, but

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Speaker 1: we don't think this is the end of what we

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Speaker 1: think is a much more secular ble market. Do you think,

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Speaker 1: because it's been so long that if we did get

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Speaker 1: a correction, it could be magnified by fear. You know,

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Speaker 1: people who've seen nothing but stocks go up for a

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Speaker 1: long time start to get nervous and and pull back

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Speaker 1: more than the otherwise would. Or the pro is going

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Speaker 1: to come in and save us and say O time

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Speaker 1: to buy. Well, we'll do our best. But I do

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Speaker 1: think that sentiment is has improved a lot this year.

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Speaker 1: I think whenever we got to pull back last year,

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Speaker 1: the year before even there was this feeling that maybe

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Speaker 1: there's a recession around the corner, maybe there's something I

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Speaker 1: should be worried about with emerging markets. So the pullbacks

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Speaker 1: felt very, very rapid and fearful. Uh. And where we

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Speaker 1: are today is much better comfort with the global economy

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Speaker 1: with stability, and so I actually think that sentiments is

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Speaker 1: a little bit better this time around going into any

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Speaker 1: sort of altility as I'm going to protect you from

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Speaker 1: the general Council. I know, Mr Diamond Hanks on everywhere

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Speaker 1: you say, can you buy the banks here? The financial

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Speaker 1: sector is one of our favorite sectors along with technology.

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Speaker 1: So there's a laundry list to tell me about the

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Speaker 1: Mike McKee wants to know about the yield curve. All right,

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Speaker 1: so we've got for the financial sector. We've got a

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Speaker 1: growing economy, so credit growth should continue being decently good.

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Speaker 1: Number two, we do believe that the yield curve is

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Speaker 1: going to stop flattening at this incessant rate we've been

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Speaker 1: seeing for the past couple of weeks, which has been

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Speaker 1: a little bit of a headwind here in the short

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Speaker 1: term UM. And then lastly, there is this underlying current

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Speaker 1: of smarter regulation that I don't know is getting necessarily

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Speaker 1: the due amount of air time, which help our pros.

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Speaker 1: Here two tends of vanilla curve. Which curve do you

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Speaker 1: look at to gauge financial forecasting? We look at the

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Speaker 1: two tens. You look at the two tends to decide

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Speaker 1: what Bank of America is doing, or bank or whatever.

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Speaker 1: We look at it as as an indication of what's

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Speaker 1: happening with the yield curve. UM, and what we have

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Speaker 1: been seeing for the past couple of weeks is a

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Speaker 1: very what to us seems like a very surprising flattening

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Speaker 1: of the yield curve. Now, we don't think that this

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Speaker 1: is all of a sudden going to go to a

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Speaker 1: completely flat or even inverted yield curve. As I was saying,

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Speaker 1: we do think that this is due for a pause

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Speaker 1: and a bit of a reversal here before we let

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Speaker 1: you go very quickly, new FED coming in next year,

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Speaker 1: causing you to think about anything differently. Not at the moment.

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Speaker 1: We do think we'll continue with the kind of pace

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Speaker 1: we've seen. This year should look pretty similar unless we

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Speaker 1: get some sort of overheating in the economy or big

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Speaker 1: tarn and inflation, which we don't expect. Um if we

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Speaker 1: don't three rate hikes, continuing to wind down the balance sheet.

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Speaker 1: I've got a wonderful email that just came in that

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Speaker 1: disagrees with you. And this is the debate over earnings

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Speaker 1: driven market versus valuation driving market. That's a great nuance.

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Speaker 1: You have to come back and we have to talk

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Speaker 1: about and this has been an earnings driven market though

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Speaker 1: this this year. This should be a great conversation, Michael.

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Speaker 1: We get gabriel As Santos with Douglas Cass, put us

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Speaker 1: a differing view, put it down for a couple of hours,

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Speaker 1: and we'll duck Cass and Gabriel a scientists together would

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Speaker 1: be smart, smart, smart they live in two different worlds.

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Speaker 1: Thank you Mr Cass for that observation, well researched. Joining

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Speaker 1: sound Stephen Ratner with will advise, that's what should point

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Speaker 1: out that he manages the four one k of Michael Bloomberg,

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Speaker 1: who has a modest amount to do with this seven

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Speaker 1: hundred dollars a year and as far oh one k. Well,

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Speaker 1: they wanted to they wanted to adjust that this is

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Speaker 1: a limited liability corporation. I guess the limited partnership. Well,

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Speaker 1: this is a subject of not inconsequential interest. We'll have

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Speaker 1: to see how the rights are, but it's not out

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Speaker 1: of the question. We don't want to talk about Michael's money,

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Speaker 1: but it does matter to a lot of people who

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Speaker 1: are not small businesses. Well, the whole thing is is

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Speaker 1: a little bit crazy because they're going to have to

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Speaker 1: try to write these rules and somehow distinguished between all

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Speaker 1: the hedge funds, all the private equity guys, all the

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Speaker 1: people UH present company included, perhaps who could just simply

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Speaker 1: turn ourselves into a pass through to be eat the system.

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Speaker 1: I want to back up, you were the cars are, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: I know you hate that phrase. I don't care. You

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Speaker 1: were the cars are, and you had to herd cats

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Speaker 1: across many institutions in Washington. If you were the texts are. Now,

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Speaker 1: given your tangible, real world experience in the trenches of

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Speaker 1: the Beltway, what would you do is texts are? Well?

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Speaker 1: For first of all, I was able to succeed is

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Speaker 1: cars are because I didn't have to deal with Congress.

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Speaker 1: Taxes you have to go to Congress. But let's assume,

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Speaker 1: let's assume you don't look. There's no doubt that the

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Speaker 1: tax code is riddled with problems. The corporate side of

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Speaker 1: the tax code creates all the wrong incentives, all kinds

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Speaker 1: of distancentives to invest here, to locate here. You would

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Speaker 1: certainly change that. Around the personal side, there's a certain

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Speaker 1: number of deductions, uh, certain of loophole's. You know, the

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Speaker 1: six Tax Act did a pretty good job, still amazingly enough,

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Speaker 1: of cleaning out the worst of the shelters. So I

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Speaker 1: would I would eliminate a bunch of individual deductions. I

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Speaker 1: would fix the corporate tax code. I would try to

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Speaker 1: lower rates, but I would do it on a deficit

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Speaker 1: neutral basis. And I knew I knew you were going

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Speaker 1: knew I was going to say, I've seen a single article,

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Speaker 1: Tax Policy Center, Joint Tax all the other experts on this.

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Speaker 1: That's a pipe dream to be deficit neutral, right, Why

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Speaker 1: is that a pipe dree I'm asking you. I'm asking you. No, Look,

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Speaker 1: it's not a pipe dream. It's easy enough to do.

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Speaker 1: You just have to not cut some taxes as much.

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Speaker 1: And and the problem is that the deficit has been

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Speaker 1: going is going up at the moment on the order

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Speaker 1: of the say very round numbers a hundred billion dollars

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Speaker 1: a year. We're on the wrong end of the expansionary cycle.

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Speaker 1: This is not a time for a stimulative tax cut.

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Speaker 1: It's just not in here. Yeah, I want to follow

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Speaker 1: on that because obviously you spent all your time looking

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Speaker 1: at financial markets. What's the danger that we see interest

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Speaker 1: rates rise more than they should because you've raised the

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Speaker 1: deficits significantly, and then you run into a problem where

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Speaker 1: you're working against yourself. Well, well, by definition, interest rates

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Speaker 1: full rise more than the otherwise would have. It has to.

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Speaker 1: It's just math. But what the but what the sort

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Speaker 1: of uh conservatives for lack of a better word, want

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Speaker 1: you know want in fact is a tighter fed policy

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Speaker 1: and a lucio fiscal policy that that was the recipe

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Speaker 1: back in the Reagan years, and it's the recipe again today.

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Speaker 1: I don't particularly see the argument for piling on more

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Speaker 1: debt that we're going to leave to our kids. Okay,

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Speaker 1: but within that tandem to review, they want a bigger deficit.

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Speaker 1: What do you mean by tighter FED policy? They want

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Speaker 1: more rate hikes, they want a more restrictive monetary policy. Sure.

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Speaker 1: I mean, if you look at the tailor rule and

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Speaker 1: what low rate don it's low rate Janet, low rate Donald,

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Speaker 1: it's but Janet is leaving and Donald absolutely is a

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Speaker 1: low rate guy. But I didn't say I didn't say Donald.

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Speaker 1: I said the conservatives, the traditional sort of fairly hard

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Speaker 1: right conservatives. They hated the Quei. They want that gone

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Speaker 1: and done. They think rate should have gone up sooner,

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Speaker 1: keeven Kevin Warsh. They have power in Steve Ratner's Washington

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Speaker 1: to the conservatives of know. What's what's so interesting is

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Speaker 1: that the president made his choice and uh and I

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Speaker 1: wrote a p about it, one of the one much

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Speaker 1: to my happy surprise, he actually picked the right guy,

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Speaker 1: and he made it. He took a stand against Mike Pence,

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Speaker 1: who wanted John Taylor, against the traditional conservatives who wanted

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Speaker 1: uh John Kevin Worsher, John Taylor type, and he picked

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Speaker 1: someone who's, you know, not that different from Janet Yellen

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Speaker 1: and that's great. Well, where do they go from here?

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Speaker 1: Do you think? Do they continue with traditional um, well

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Speaker 1: known kinds of people or do they put a Trump

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Speaker 1: agenda in there into the Fed? I don't, I don't know.

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Speaker 1: You know, sometimes it becomes like Noah's Ark, where if

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Speaker 1: you give one faction somebody, then you have to give

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Speaker 1: the other faction somebody to exactly that's exactly you need

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Speaker 1: a Republican um. So we'll see where it goes. But

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Speaker 1: the chairman, as you know, uh, the last time a

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Speaker 1: chairman was outvoted was Bill Miller in seventy something or another.

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Speaker 1: I was actually covering it back then. So the chairman

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Speaker 1: wheel is enormous power, enormous influence. Don't you hate it? Tom?

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Speaker 1: And he knows more about reporting than we do. I

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Speaker 1: don't know more, but I did it for a good while.

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Speaker 1: William Miller is a lot of people. But this is

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Speaker 1: that brings up a good point, Steve. Right now, the

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Speaker 1: collective memory of Washington is about one election ago. They

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Speaker 1: really don't have a memory of vulgar. They don't have

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Speaker 1: a memory that nobody. They don't have a memory of

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Speaker 1: mckchesley Martin. I mean, there's there's really no historical memory

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Speaker 1: that is that that is true on tax reform, What

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Speaker 1: should we look for next? We've had the Senate trot

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Speaker 1: out what are you looking for into the weekend of

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Speaker 1: the Sunday talk shows and then into the holiday season.

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure too well. They certainly hope to pass

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Speaker 1: something in the holiday season. I look at what we're

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Speaker 1: obviously looking for is to see uh in individual senators

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Speaker 1: and then the Republicans who are in the bluer states

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Speaker 1: where there are state and local tax deduction issues there

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Speaker 1: that Peter called Peter King has made his position clear,

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Speaker 1: But to why watch these swing voters, because it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be like healthcare, We're gonna have to they're gonna have

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Speaker 1: to be counting votes, and they're gonna have to be

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Speaker 1: counting votes in the House this time as well as

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Speaker 1: the Senate. The House wasn't so hard for them last time.

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Speaker 1: But there are a number of Republicans. Some people say

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Speaker 1: it's twenty, some thirty, some thirty some forty. We don't

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Speaker 1: know who who could well be influenced by the salt issue.

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Speaker 1: And then on the Senate side, it's, you know, it's

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Speaker 1: a bit of a director set. You've got you've got

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Speaker 1: to you've got to assemble fifty and if you and

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Speaker 1: if one drops out, you've got to find another one

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Speaker 1: and put in their place. So the trade off between

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Speaker 1: the estate tax and the other kinds of things, Corker

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Speaker 1: and his deficit concerns, they're gonna have to try to

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Speaker 1: juggle all that and come up with fifty votes. And

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Speaker 1: that's what we're gonna be watching. Well, since you come

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Speaker 1: from both worlds political and financial, um, do you think

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Speaker 1: that this is uh going to be a situation where

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Speaker 1: Republicans are so desperate for a win it won't matter

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Speaker 1: what's in the bill, They'll just pass something. I think

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Speaker 1: if we're up to the White House, that would be

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Speaker 1: the case. And probably even the leadership they are desperate

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Speaker 1: for a bill because if they don't get this bill done,

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Speaker 1: and perhaps if they don't get this bill done this year,

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Speaker 1: then they could end up going to the eighteen elections

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Speaker 1: with nothing, and that is something that terrifies the leadership.

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Speaker 1: The rank and file. They have to worry about their

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Speaker 1: own skins. They're not worried so much about the party

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Speaker 1: because I let me say one last thing. The Virginia

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Speaker 1: results and all the other results that happened that day

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Speaker 1: could be a watershed here because it was a message

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Speaker 1: and it may well influence a number of Republicans who

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Speaker 1: are on the edge as to whether vote for another

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Speaker 1: program that, by the time it's over, in my prediction,

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Speaker 1: will be as unpopular as their healthcare play. And Steve,

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Speaker 1: this is the distrust that Mike brought up on passers

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Speaker 1: at the beginning. Mike and Steve, have you got nothing

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Speaker 1: to do this weekend? Out in East Hampton South, there's

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Speaker 1: a thirty million dollar unit, and the headline here and

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Speaker 1: thirty million dollars is it's two thousand eight square feet,

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Speaker 1: uh two bedroom to bath. So the headline here is

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Speaker 1: it's on three point six acres, which is how you

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Speaker 1: get out to thirty million dollars. Rob Urban has a

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Speaker 1: phenomenal Bloomberg story how they're already game in the system.

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Speaker 1: They're gonna turn vacation homes into investment properties to get

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Speaker 1: around the legislation. Our audience believes the fancy guys like

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Speaker 1: you and others are going to gain the system. Why

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Speaker 1: will that not happen? Uh, it will happen, and it

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Speaker 1: always happens. And the problem with this tax bill is

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Speaker 1: that in some ways it makes it more complicated than

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Speaker 1: less because of the past. Through is because of all

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Speaker 1: these rules, and if you really genuinely wanted to reform

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Speaker 1: the tax code, you'd get rid of a lot of

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Speaker 1: this stuff that allows people to game the system. But

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Speaker 1: they're not doing that. Mike, this property says you. Actually

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Speaker 1: it's idyllic. It's an idyllic property. Well, I read that.

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Speaker 1: When I read the Senate bill last night. My first

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Speaker 1: thought was I should incorporate as a limited partnership or

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Speaker 1: limited liability corporation and buy a house through the corporation

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Speaker 1: because the state and local tax deduction remains for companies

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Speaker 1: even though individuals losing. So, I mean, you can see

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Speaker 1: the route to gaming this just laid out. We're trying

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Speaker 1: to give you perspective on some of these events, including

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Speaker 1: tax reform now, and really get away from the cliches

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Speaker 1: that are out there. You can do that with Stephen

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Speaker 1: Ratner will It Advisors, Michael, When you start us off, well,

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Speaker 1: I was going to ask him a non tax question

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Speaker 1: because I noted the story, and and you had Harvard

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Speaker 1: football coach on yesterday to Murphy, there's a possibility of

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Speaker 1: a seven way tie in the eight team IVY League

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Speaker 1: in football this year for first place. There's only one

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Speaker 1: team that's winless at the bottom of the conference that

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Speaker 1: cannot possibly tie Brown University. Now Brown University graduates. Stephen

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Speaker 1: Ratner is with you've done your homework. You know when

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Speaker 1: I was at Brown, we were pretty much winless. The

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Speaker 1: only team that was worse was Columbia, And so I

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Speaker 1: guess we're right back where we started from. Tom Tom,

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Speaker 1: and I well, Columbia three and two started from they

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Speaker 1: have they have turned things around. We were doing college

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Speaker 1: football today since we we thought we would. We get

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Speaker 1: your contribution in there. Thank you for sharing um the

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Speaker 1: the The distinguished journalist John Hartwood from The New York

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Speaker 1: Times and a competitor of ours, did an interview yesterday

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Speaker 1: with Gary Kohne in which Gary Cohne suggested that the

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Speaker 1: tax reform plan will be a perfect example of trickle

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Speaker 1: down economics. By helping the rich and businesses, it will

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Speaker 1: mean higher pay for the average worker. From what you've seen,

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Speaker 1: do you think there's any truth to that, well, you know, look,

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Speaker 1: there's a little bit of truth to it. But it's

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Speaker 1: now been hotly debated or relitigated within the economics community

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Speaker 1: for the last few weeks, as you guys have undoubtedly

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Speaker 1: followed and saw on it, and I think by far

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Speaker 1: the better argument is that the is that the share

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Speaker 1: of any kind of corporate tax cut that would actually

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Speaker 1: go to the workers versus go to the capitalists like

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Speaker 1: myself is very small. This idea that it's going to

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Speaker 1: raise family incomes by four thousand dollars, and all this,

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Speaker 1: I think has been has been thoroughly and completely proven

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Speaker 1: to be ridiculous. So does it Who gets something out

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Speaker 1: of this? Obviously there's a lot in there for Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump and his family, but who else? Owners of capital

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Speaker 1: get a lot out of this? And if you want

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Speaker 1: to know why the stock market is up seventeen percent

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Speaker 1: or wherever it is at the moment for the year,

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Speaker 1: a lot of this obviously, and part of why it's

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Speaker 1: been week the last few days as anticipation of a

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Speaker 1: significant corporate rate cut that would flow right down directly

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Speaker 1: to the EPs line, ray share prices and those of

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Speaker 1: us who own shares, which is a relatively small fraction

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Speaker 1: of the country would be a good bit better off.

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Speaker 1: The debate I find extraordinary, and it is to me

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Speaker 1: a debate of a plutocracy. Are we a national plutocracy?

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Speaker 1: It's interesting, I think, and this is gonna sound very partisan,

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Speaker 1: but I think the Republicans have managed to operate as

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Speaker 1: a plutocracy while pretending that they are something else that

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Speaker 1: there for the middle class, that they want to help

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Speaker 1: the average American, they want to help the forgotten Trump voter, whatever.

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Speaker 1: But as we saw in healthcare, people didn't ultimately buy it.

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Speaker 1: And I think in the case of tax reform, as

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Speaker 1: this unfolds, as you get more and more dispassionate and

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Speaker 1: now you know nonpartisan analyses from Tax Policy Center and

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Speaker 1: Committee for Responsible Federal Budget and people like that, I

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Speaker 1: think that the public will figure out that there is

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Speaker 1: nothing in this tax plan for them of any consequence.

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Speaker 1: Greg Ville leads is the Zack Seos today with the

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Speaker 1: basic idea after Virginia that Republicans are in panic, and

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Speaker 1: there's levels of panic that I understand. Virginia's its own demographics.

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Speaker 1: Can you extrapolate political Virginia to the rest of the

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Speaker 1: Republican nation, Well, I think there's two. I think there's

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Speaker 1: two implications that I mentioned. First, as I said earlier,

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Speaker 1: I think they are in panic. I think Virginia is

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Speaker 1: not unique, it's a it's actually a purple state. It's

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Speaker 1: very reflective of the country, and I think this is

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Speaker 1: what happened there, I think is scary to many Republican legislators,

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Speaker 1: and I think it is going to lead them to

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Speaker 1: be more careful and how how blindly they simply follow

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Speaker 1: these silly policies. And then secondly, yes, the House of

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Speaker 1: Representatives is jerrymannerd. We all know that. But there have

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Speaker 1: been studies done that if the Democrats get say a

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Speaker 1: three percent higher votes share than the Republicans, they could

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Speaker 1: take the House. And right now, if you look at

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Speaker 1: the polls, the public is giving the Democrats a much

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Speaker 1: higher votes share than that. So I think there is

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Speaker 1: I think there's a better than fifty fifty chance at

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Speaker 1: the House flips, and if the House flips, the game changes.

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Speaker 1: When when as an investor do you start taking that

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Speaker 1: into account? Look, this is, this is you know, this

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Speaker 1: is we need an hour for this, and it's a

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Speaker 1: very complicated. It's very complicated work. It's very complicated. We've

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Speaker 1: studied this bullmarket endlessly and I could argue both sides

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Speaker 1: of it, but yeah, we take it into account. We're

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Speaker 1: being cautious, we're being careful. We're not plunging into into

430
00:22:47,840 --> 00:22:54,280
Speaker 1: deep water. Thank you guys, fun as always, great Mike,

431
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:55,720
Speaker 1: what did you take out of it? I mean, to me,

432
00:22:55,920 --> 00:22:58,520
Speaker 1: it's it's I don't know. I still don't understand how

433
00:22:58,520 --> 00:23:01,680
Speaker 1: they get this done before twelve three? You I just

434
00:23:01,800 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: can't get there, can you? Um? Well, I think the

435
00:23:04,280 --> 00:23:06,920
Speaker 1: argument is that they're so desperate to get something done

436
00:23:07,000 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 1: that they will make compromises they might not otherwise make.

437
00:23:10,040 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: The biggest one you gotta try to figure out how

438
00:23:12,320 --> 00:23:14,680
Speaker 1: they're gonna do is the state and local tax deduction.

439
00:23:14,720 --> 00:23:19,359
Speaker 1: Because the Republicans in the House in California, New Jersey,

440
00:23:19,440 --> 00:23:21,920
Speaker 1: New York states like that, they can't vote for it

441
00:23:22,240 --> 00:23:24,400
Speaker 1: or I mean, they're signing their own political death ward.

442
00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:26,920
Speaker 1: So how do you compromise on that and then make

443
00:23:27,000 --> 00:23:29,040
Speaker 1: up the differences of the money that you lose? How

444
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,320
Speaker 1: I go to Mr Rattlers comment on one point five

445
00:23:32,400 --> 00:23:35,880
Speaker 1: trillion dollar whole, and then you even go from there,

446
00:23:35,920 --> 00:23:37,840
Speaker 1: I mean, how do they how do they get there?

447
00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:39,680
Speaker 1: They've gotten there in the last twenty four hours. I

448
00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:43,399
Speaker 1: believe they modeled out something at one point four or

449
00:23:43,440 --> 00:23:46,359
Speaker 1: five trillion or something. Sure that will change by the

450
00:23:46,400 --> 00:23:59,840
Speaker 1: time we end the show today. Michael McKeon for David,

451
00:24:00,160 --> 00:24:04,360
Speaker 1: I'm Tim Keene and to be honest on a November, cold,

452
00:24:04,440 --> 00:24:06,960
Speaker 1: November morning, Michael, it's too late to be the book

453
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:10,160
Speaker 1: of the year, but this is without question the lead

454
00:24:10,280 --> 00:24:13,800
Speaker 1: candidate to be my book of next summer. How Global

455
00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:18,840
Speaker 1: Currencies Work, Past, Present, in future. A gentleman of named

456
00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,960
Speaker 1: Harold James at Princeton University just says this could be

457
00:24:22,080 --> 00:24:25,760
Speaker 1: the new standard. This is the book that everyone on

458
00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:29,440
Speaker 1: Global Wall Street will be reading in two thousand eighteen. Mike,

459
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,800
Speaker 1: you will go on an airplane and up in fancy class.

460
00:24:32,920 --> 00:24:35,840
Speaker 1: There will be one, two and three copies of this

461
00:24:36,320 --> 00:24:40,240
Speaker 1: for needed airplane reading. I can Green, mel and T

462
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:44,159
Speaker 1: two How Global Currencies Work Berry Iken Green joins us,

463
00:24:44,240 --> 00:24:47,960
Speaker 1: the esteemed historian from Berkeley Berry. How does this book

464
00:24:48,040 --> 00:24:51,280
Speaker 1: differ from exorbitant Privilege? How does it differ from your

465
00:24:51,359 --> 00:24:57,399
Speaker 1: classics Golden Fetters and globalizing capital? Uh? Thank you for

466
00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,440
Speaker 1: bringing it to your your audiences. Attempt and Tom it

467
00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:06,080
Speaker 1: differs in two ways. Number one, it is more systematic

468
00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:10,520
Speaker 1: about the evidence, so the book is full of facts

469
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:15,119
Speaker 1: and figures, new ones, both historic and current, about the

470
00:25:15,280 --> 00:25:19,120
Speaker 1: roles of the dollar and its rivals. And number two

471
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:23,679
Speaker 1: are views of the future have changed, so we're more

472
00:25:23,800 --> 00:25:27,280
Speaker 1: optimistic about the Euro. I think people have been too

473
00:25:27,400 --> 00:25:31,680
Speaker 1: pessimistic about the prospects of the Euro as a global currency.

474
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:34,960
Speaker 1: On the other hand, were more guarded or cautious about

475
00:25:35,000 --> 00:25:37,520
Speaker 1: the Chinese. Friendly and b Your book has a cover

476
00:25:37,720 --> 00:25:41,399
Speaker 1: of an E. Howard watch company, Boston, Massachusetts. I'm going

477
00:25:41,480 --> 00:25:44,639
Speaker 1: to say an ancient movement of of a pocket watch.

478
00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:47,600
Speaker 1: Is it a well running Swiss watch system? Does the

479
00:25:47,680 --> 00:25:52,680
Speaker 1: system work well? The system is still ticking. Um, I

480
00:25:53,800 --> 00:25:58,720
Speaker 1: think uh, we have to worry about the stability of

481
00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:03,760
Speaker 1: the mechanism. Um. Things could go wrong to undermine confidence

482
00:26:03,920 --> 00:26:09,600
Speaker 1: in the dollar, from another debt ceiling embrolio to UH

483
00:26:09,840 --> 00:26:13,960
Speaker 1: foreign policy problems between the US and its allies. I

484
00:26:14,400 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 1: do think the Euro has put the worst behind it,

485
00:26:19,320 --> 00:26:21,879
Speaker 1: but the Chinese still have big challenges in terms of

486
00:26:21,920 --> 00:26:25,040
Speaker 1: currency internationalization that they have insolved, and how the world

487
00:26:25,119 --> 00:26:31,360
Speaker 1: will cope with three with multiple global currencies. Only time

488
00:26:31,400 --> 00:26:34,480
Speaker 1: will tell how being how has the world been coping

489
00:26:34,560 --> 00:26:37,440
Speaker 1: so far? I mean, the Chinese got into the to

490
00:26:37,880 --> 00:26:40,040
Speaker 1: the SDR basket at the i m F last year,

491
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,040
Speaker 1: doesn't seem to have made a whole lot of difference.

492
00:26:42,119 --> 00:26:44,800
Speaker 1: As near as I can tell. The amount of men

493
00:26:44,880 --> 00:26:49,200
Speaker 1: be traded UM has gone down over the last year.

494
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:53,280
Speaker 1: You're right, Michael, that it's still a dollar centered, dollar

495
00:26:53,359 --> 00:26:59,360
Speaker 1: centric world. That the Renman b has made negative progress,

496
00:26:59,800 --> 00:27:02,679
Speaker 1: if you will, not only in terms of foreign exchange trading,

497
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 1: but on every other metric of global currency nous. The

498
00:27:09,600 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 1: Chinese haven't yet built deep in liquid markets. Uh. The

499
00:27:15,720 --> 00:27:20,680
Speaker 1: overnight announcement about bank internationalization will help, but it won't

500
00:27:20,720 --> 00:27:24,119
Speaker 1: solve that problem at a stroke. And they have a

501
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: big problem in terms of stability. The market is volatile

502
00:27:28,760 --> 00:27:35,040
Speaker 1: and confidence that people inevitably have questions about contract enforcement

503
00:27:35,080 --> 00:27:37,160
Speaker 1: and rule of law in China. What do you think

504
00:27:37,200 --> 00:27:39,960
Speaker 1: of the decision today by the Chinese to open up

505
00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:43,440
Speaker 1: to the their financial system to outsiders. Is that going

506
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:48,120
Speaker 1: to materially change the use of their ENMNB or people

507
00:27:48,200 --> 00:27:53,000
Speaker 1: still gonna want to just um convert because capital controls.

508
00:27:53,240 --> 00:27:55,119
Speaker 1: You know, they can't trust the Chinese. You can put

509
00:27:55,160 --> 00:27:56,600
Speaker 1: bring your money in, but you might not be able

510
00:27:56,640 --> 00:27:59,360
Speaker 1: to bring it back out. I don't think it will

511
00:27:59,440 --> 00:28:02,200
Speaker 1: materially change anything in the short run. It will take

512
00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:08,040
Speaker 1: time for foreign banks to come in and purchase majority stakes.

513
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,160
Speaker 1: That fact will take more time to change the behavior

514
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:16,200
Speaker 1: of the banks and how they relate to the state

515
00:28:16,680 --> 00:28:21,600
Speaker 1: and to state owned enterprises. So the experience of other

516
00:28:21,640 --> 00:28:26,159
Speaker 1: countries has shown that foreign bank presence is a good thing.

517
00:28:26,280 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 1: It's a stabilizing thing that helps with market liquidity and stability.

518
00:28:31,200 --> 00:28:37,440
Speaker 1: But not overnight. Well then, um, how soon or you know,

519
00:28:37,960 --> 00:28:43,480
Speaker 1: do we at all see the Chinese currency gain enough

520
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:45,800
Speaker 1: market share that we talked about it seriously as a

521
00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:52,480
Speaker 1: third global reserve currency. If you asked me six or

522
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: seven years ago when I put out that booking sort

523
00:28:55,480 --> 00:28:59,320
Speaker 1: but and privilege, I would have probably hazarded the guests

524
00:28:59,560 --> 00:29:03,680
Speaker 1: within within a decade. I'm more guarded now. I think

525
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:07,680
Speaker 1: it will take a generation before the Renman b begins

526
00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:11,440
Speaker 1: to play the kind of global role that the dollar does.

527
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:13,960
Speaker 1: Arry I con agreed with us the professor of Berkeley,

528
00:29:14,160 --> 00:29:17,120
Speaker 1: right down the hall from Brad DeLong, how global currencies

529
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,640
Speaker 1: work past present in future. How often do you run

530
00:29:20,720 --> 00:29:23,520
Speaker 1: into Brad DeLong? Are you like two ships passing in

531
00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,120
Speaker 1: the night. Are you having coffee every morning arguing with

532
00:29:26,200 --> 00:29:29,160
Speaker 1: each other? No, we passed mainly in the hallway in

533
00:29:29,240 --> 00:29:33,240
Speaker 1: the seminar room, but um Brad ducks into my office.

534
00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:37,960
Speaker 1: That's not an argument. But it's so long, uh discussions.

535
00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,280
Speaker 1: So that's really one of the pleasures of being academic.

536
00:29:41,360 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 1: We have time and we have those colleagues. Interesting. Interesting

537
00:29:45,400 --> 00:29:48,120
Speaker 1: Barry with the question that Mike head there on on

538
00:29:48,360 --> 00:29:50,840
Speaker 1: what we're doing with the dollar? Where do we stand

539
00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:54,240
Speaker 1: on our fiscal moment in this United States? You know

540
00:29:54,880 --> 00:30:00,480
Speaker 1: Reagan deficit GDP. Now we're out paste depends you measure

541
00:30:00,520 --> 00:30:02,960
Speaker 1: in folks, But we've piled on a lot of debt.

542
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:07,200
Speaker 1: Does that give pause to bury Ion Green? It gives

543
00:30:07,240 --> 00:30:09,680
Speaker 1: me great pause. I'm not a believer that there is

544
00:30:09,800 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: some threshold level of debt like GDP, after which you

545
00:30:14,920 --> 00:30:18,520
Speaker 1: you reach a tipping point. But I do think we

546
00:30:18,640 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 1: need to be worried about the longer term fiscal projections

547
00:30:22,200 --> 00:30:26,560
Speaker 1: put out by the CBO and others, about social security liabilities,

548
00:30:26,720 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 1: about state and local pension liabilities. So given that, given

549
00:30:32,440 --> 00:30:35,160
Speaker 1: that we're in a near full employment economy, now is

550
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:39,160
Speaker 1: not the time to be cutting taxes and incurring another

551
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:43,560
Speaker 1: one five killion dollars of debt. There's a an argument

552
00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:48,480
Speaker 1: made that that level um came by the book. This

553
00:30:48,600 --> 00:30:53,920
Speaker 1: time it's different by Ken Rogoff and Company, that the

554
00:30:54,120 --> 00:30:57,480
Speaker 1: US is serve exempt from that. We're we're the exception

555
00:30:58,120 --> 00:31:01,840
Speaker 1: to the rule because there's economy like US and we

556
00:31:02,040 --> 00:31:05,040
Speaker 1: have the world's reserve currency. Do you do you put

557
00:31:05,120 --> 00:31:06,680
Speaker 1: much credence in that? Is that part of the reason

558
00:31:06,760 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: you are less worried. I think we do have more

559
00:31:10,160 --> 00:31:13,520
Speaker 1: room to run because we have this additional source of

560
00:31:13,640 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: demand for our treasury bonds, which is foreign central banks

561
00:31:18,600 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 1: and global investors, until we get to the point where

562
00:31:22,520 --> 00:31:26,080
Speaker 1: that fan drives up in a confidence crisis. So we're

563
00:31:26,120 --> 00:31:29,440
Speaker 1: not exempt from the eventual confidence crisis if if we

564
00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:32,880
Speaker 1: court it. Very I can read with us as we celebrate,

565
00:31:33,240 --> 00:31:36,480
Speaker 1: as he mentioned, a detailed book, a dense book, and

566
00:31:36,560 --> 00:31:39,600
Speaker 1: I mean that in a good way, how global currencies

567
00:31:39,640 --> 00:31:41,800
Speaker 1: work past president in future. To give you the idea

568
00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:44,320
Speaker 1: of the scope and scale, Professor I Can Green and

569
00:31:44,400 --> 00:31:49,080
Speaker 1: his team open with Angus Madison and Mr Kindleberger Charles

570
00:31:49,200 --> 00:31:52,200
Speaker 1: Kindleberger of m I T, two of the giants of

571
00:31:52,280 --> 00:31:55,600
Speaker 1: the history of all the stuff we talk about UH,

572
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: and it's really just an immediate read as he goes

573
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: from currency to currency prospects for the Renminbi, the role

574
00:32:03,280 --> 00:32:05,720
Speaker 1: of currencies in foreign trade, which maybe Mike is something

575
00:32:05,800 --> 00:32:08,200
Speaker 1: we can talk about. We are with very Green and

576
00:32:08,280 --> 00:32:13,040
Speaker 1: Berkeley truly in celebration of our global currencies work, past, present,

577
00:32:13,200 --> 00:32:17,920
Speaker 1: in future. Very unquantitative tightening your lecturing at Berkeley right now,

578
00:32:18,400 --> 00:32:21,800
Speaker 1: what does that phrase mean? If we have a move

579
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 1: from QA, are we going to something like quantitative tightening?

580
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:31,640
Speaker 1: If we were about to see the FED and other

581
00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:37,320
Speaker 1: central banks actively shrinking their balance sheets and selling securities

582
00:32:37,440 --> 00:32:41,040
Speaker 1: they hold into the markets, then yes, I think we

583
00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:46,400
Speaker 1: would worry about quantitative tidening, tightening and big negative impacts

584
00:32:46,600 --> 00:32:49,120
Speaker 1: on securities markets. But the fact of the matter is

585
00:32:49,280 --> 00:32:53,800
Speaker 1: there simply allowing UH securities to roll over, their roll

586
00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:59,000
Speaker 1: off their portfolios as they mature, and they're not actively

587
00:32:59,080 --> 00:33:02,520
Speaker 1: selling into the market. So I wouldn't I wouldn't at

588
00:33:02,600 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 1: this point, And guess what Ben Bernanke says, Yeah, Um,

589
00:33:07,080 --> 00:33:10,920
Speaker 1: there is still some concern though about you know, we

590
00:33:11,160 --> 00:33:15,720
Speaker 1: saw rates come down when the FED was buying security,

591
00:33:15,840 --> 00:33:18,840
Speaker 1: so why shouldn't rates go up? When they are no

592
00:33:18,960 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 1: longer buying them, and to a certain extent probably uh

593
00:33:23,960 --> 00:33:29,080
Speaker 1: selling them. Well, the FEDS stopped buying quite some time ago.

594
00:33:29,520 --> 00:33:33,920
Speaker 1: Now they're you know, they're talking about balance sheet reduction. Uh.

595
00:33:34,120 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: And the issue is are they going to do it

596
00:33:36,160 --> 00:33:41,160
Speaker 1: actively or passively? And for all intents and purposes, the

597
00:33:41,240 --> 00:33:47,000
Speaker 1: answer is passively, so you're not worried about rates moving

598
00:33:47,080 --> 00:33:51,280
Speaker 1: higher or in a destabilizing manner. I don't think the

599
00:33:51,360 --> 00:33:55,200
Speaker 1: FED would be the trigger for them moving higher. If

600
00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:59,600
Speaker 1: there was news about the labor market, for example, in

601
00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:01,720
Speaker 1: wage just began to take off, that would be a

602
00:34:01,760 --> 00:34:04,840
Speaker 1: different story. But the FED would not be the trigger

603
00:34:04,920 --> 00:34:07,960
Speaker 1: for them. Professor, we have models that we've all learned,

604
00:34:08,000 --> 00:34:10,680
Speaker 1: and some like you have learned them better than and

605
00:34:10,840 --> 00:34:13,279
Speaker 1: most everyone else. I'll go back to Hicks I s

606
00:34:13,440 --> 00:34:17,280
Speaker 1: LM model just as one classic economic system maybe marshal

607
00:34:17,320 --> 00:34:22,840
Speaker 1: of years ago. Did those models work now? Or is

608
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:28,480
Speaker 1: Barry Ike and Green's international system become so supple, so rapid,

609
00:34:28,800 --> 00:34:35,040
Speaker 1: so fast that the traditional models just don't work. We

610
00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:37,759
Speaker 1: really had a wake up call in two thousand seven,

611
00:34:37,840 --> 00:34:42,920
Speaker 1: two and eight that the models work imperfectly. I would

612
00:34:43,560 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: defend those old school models. Is pretty pretty much still

613
00:34:47,760 --> 00:34:51,800
Speaker 1: the best thing going, but I would be reluctant to

614
00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 1: hang my hat on them. I think progress is being

615
00:34:55,640 --> 00:35:02,480
Speaker 1: made through big data and computation and applying microeconomic data

616
00:35:02,560 --> 00:35:05,480
Speaker 1: to macro economic questions. So that's a different kind of modeling.

617
00:35:06,560 --> 00:35:10,720
Speaker 1: I'm wondering, Um, we were we were just talking about

618
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:14,200
Speaker 1: we were kidding, well kidding, but we're talking about Shohaio Tani,

619
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:16,680
Speaker 1: the Japanese baseball player. But I'm wondering it has been

620
00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:19,560
Speaker 1: wondering about the end at this point. The President was

621
00:35:19,640 --> 00:35:22,400
Speaker 1: just over there and he's talking with Shinzo Abi, and

622
00:35:22,920 --> 00:35:26,239
Speaker 1: you know, it just seems like Japan is treading water. Um,

623
00:35:26,880 --> 00:35:29,440
Speaker 1: they don't get any better, they don't get any worse. Uh,

624
00:35:30,040 --> 00:35:33,520
Speaker 1: their personal you know, their per capita GDP gets a

625
00:35:33,520 --> 00:35:38,120
Speaker 1: little bit better, so people remain relatively happy. And yet um,

626
00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:42,360
Speaker 1: the end still is one of the most used currencies

627
00:35:42,400 --> 00:35:44,960
Speaker 1: in the world, and is everybody's out of the dollar

628
00:35:45,000 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 1: favorite haven. Does that continue over the long term we

629
00:35:48,880 --> 00:35:50,399
Speaker 1: were talking about, you know what happens with the red

630
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,320
Speaker 1: nd B. Does the end continue to be play the

631
00:35:53,400 --> 00:35:58,560
Speaker 1: role that it has played? If there ultimately is the

632
00:35:59,239 --> 00:36:03,359
Speaker 1: um the Japanese debt crisis that some people have been

633
00:36:03,960 --> 00:36:06,640
Speaker 1: betting on in that we don't make or trade for

634
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 1: decades now, then the end falls out of favor. But

635
00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:13,840
Speaker 1: I think if Japan continues to cruise along under the

636
00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:21,800
Speaker 1: radar where they wrote decently given their demographics, where the

637
00:36:21,880 --> 00:36:25,799
Speaker 1: central bank does begin to bring inflation up towards two,

638
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:29,800
Speaker 1: then I think the yen remains where it is not

639
00:36:29,960 --> 00:36:33,000
Speaker 1: the leading global currency but one of the players. Very

640
00:36:33,080 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 1: thank you so much, Professor Green. Folks out with the

641
00:36:35,960 --> 00:36:38,560
Speaker 1: jewel with ar Nold, Bill and Olivia should do how

642
00:36:39,080 --> 00:36:42,919
Speaker 1: global currencies work past present in future. There's two kind

643
00:36:42,960 --> 00:36:46,279
Speaker 1: of Iken Green books. There's sort of a thicker wandering book,

644
00:36:46,880 --> 00:36:50,160
Speaker 1: which are fabulous, they're all great books. And then there

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Speaker 1: this is a new addition to that series of shorter

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Speaker 1: dnser two hundred page jewels with an emphasis on the

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Speaker 1: word denser and the reason. But read these if you

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Speaker 1: learn something every three pages. It's written that tightly, and

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Speaker 1: you see that. Michael mckeeon how global Currencies work. I

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Speaker 1: hate Michael Barry, hate Berry. I can Green because instead

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Speaker 1: of watching Lions Browns, I have to read How Global

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Speaker 1: Currencies Work this weekend. Well, you can read the book

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Speaker 1: because all you need is like a quarter just to

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Speaker 1: see the lions. Did see the lions? And I can

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Speaker 1: watch it with a sound off. Maybe I'll get through it.

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Speaker 1: Berry Green, thank you so much how global currencies work.

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Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and

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Speaker 1: listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud, or whichever podcast

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Speaker 1: platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at Tom Keene. David

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Speaker 1: Gura is at David Gura. Before the podcast, you can

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Speaker 1: always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio