1 00:00:00,240 --> 00:00:00,440 Speaker 1: Hi. 2 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:03,320 Speaker 2: I'm Sarah Holder. I'm a new host for The Big Take, 3 00:00:03,360 --> 00:00:05,040 Speaker 2: and I'm thrilled to be in your feed this week 4 00:00:05,080 --> 00:00:08,160 Speaker 2: along with Seleiah Mosen in Washington, d C. And wanh 5 00:00:08,400 --> 00:00:11,639 Speaker 2: in Hong Kong. Each day we'll share one big story 6 00:00:11,680 --> 00:00:15,080 Speaker 2: on money from all around the world. Without further ado, 7 00:00:15,320 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 2: here's today's episode. My colleague Sam Potter reports on markets 8 00:00:23,840 --> 00:00:26,759 Speaker 2: for Bloomberg. I called him at home in London and 9 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,160 Speaker 2: he told me that every year around October he gets 10 00:00:30,200 --> 00:00:32,240 Speaker 2: the feeling that something big is coming. 11 00:00:32,560 --> 00:00:34,920 Speaker 1: I always had this moment where I think, can I 12 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:36,480 Speaker 1: really go through this again this year? 13 00:00:36,920 --> 00:00:38,680 Speaker 3: Can I just palm it off to someone else? 14 00:00:39,080 --> 00:00:41,839 Speaker 2: What Sam has to go through is an exercise in 15 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:45,360 Speaker 2: predicting the future, or at least the version of the 16 00:00:45,400 --> 00:00:48,600 Speaker 2: future Wall Street is expecting. Sam, you've had a busy 17 00:00:48,680 --> 00:00:52,360 Speaker 2: couple of months reading the investment tea leaves. Tell us 18 00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:53,239 Speaker 2: what you've been up to. 19 00:00:53,600 --> 00:00:57,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, I have been reading just about everything that Wall 20 00:00:57,760 --> 00:01:02,640 Speaker 1: Street has written about about the year ahead. So the 21 00:01:02,640 --> 00:01:07,960 Speaker 1: major banks, the biggest asset manages, major advisors, anyone who 22 00:01:07,959 --> 00:01:10,720 Speaker 1: has put out an outlook for twenty twenty four, and 23 00:01:10,800 --> 00:01:14,560 Speaker 1: either the markets or the economy generally global stuff. 24 00:01:14,840 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 2: The tea leaves he realize on are called investment outlooks, 25 00:01:18,440 --> 00:01:21,560 Speaker 2: the reports that Wall Street's best and brightest released late 26 00:01:21,640 --> 00:01:25,160 Speaker 2: every fall, outlining what they expect to happen next year. 27 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:30,240 Speaker 1: It's an exercise in trying to appear smarter, better prepared, 28 00:01:30,760 --> 00:01:34,399 Speaker 1: better place to manage other people's money. And oftentimes what 29 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 1: firms will do will try to make it a bit 30 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:39,360 Speaker 1: more interesting by adding themes. You know, these are the 31 00:01:39,360 --> 00:01:42,280 Speaker 1: big themes that we see, trying to make it thematic. 32 00:01:42,800 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: But actually sometimes that just makes it much harder to read. 33 00:01:45,800 --> 00:01:48,960 Speaker 2: Sam has had a lot of practice reading and digesting 34 00:01:49,000 --> 00:01:52,080 Speaker 2: these reports over the last months of twenty twenty three. 35 00:01:52,360 --> 00:01:55,279 Speaker 2: Who's gone through more than six hundred and fifty of them? 36 00:01:55,480 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 1: I have been pouring through it, and it is amounted 37 00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: to dozens and dozens of outlooks and hundreds and hundreds 38 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:03,280 Speaker 1: and probably thousands of pages. 39 00:02:03,360 --> 00:02:05,720 Speaker 3: So I'm a little bit cross eyed at this point. 40 00:02:06,160 --> 00:02:09,800 Speaker 2: As he reads, Sam looks for the clear takeaways, categorizes 41 00:02:09,840 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 2: the responses, and assembles each institution's key predictions in a 42 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 2: database on Bloomberg dot com. 43 00:02:15,400 --> 00:02:17,400 Speaker 1: So I like the ones that are kind of clear, 44 00:02:17,919 --> 00:02:22,280 Speaker 1: concise and hopefully making firm predictions for the year ahead, 45 00:02:22,280 --> 00:02:23,840 Speaker 1: because a lot of what they do as well is 46 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:28,000 Speaker 1: say very vague things like the path of inflation is 47 00:02:28,080 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: going to be important in the year ahead. 48 00:02:30,000 --> 00:02:32,240 Speaker 3: And I mean, anyone on. 49 00:02:32,200 --> 00:02:35,400 Speaker 2: Wall Street knows that the more reports Sam takes in, 50 00:02:35,480 --> 00:02:37,880 Speaker 2: the more he starts to see the big picture, the 51 00:02:37,919 --> 00:02:40,720 Speaker 2: consensus view on just about everything the financial world is 52 00:02:40,760 --> 00:02:44,280 Speaker 2: anticipating in the year to come. And that consensus view 53 00:02:44,400 --> 00:02:48,240 Speaker 2: matters because Sam isn't the only one reading these outlook reports. 54 00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:51,520 Speaker 2: All kinds of financial professionals are taking in the same 55 00:02:51,520 --> 00:02:55,200 Speaker 2: information and investing trillions of dollars based on what they 56 00:02:55,240 --> 00:02:58,560 Speaker 2: see today. On the show, what are the world's top 57 00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:01,840 Speaker 2: financial minds predicting for twenty twenty four? Are we heading 58 00:03:01,880 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 2: into a recession? Will be AI bubble burst? And how 59 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:09,120 Speaker 2: my elections around the world affect the markets. I'm your host, 60 00:03:09,200 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 2: Sarah Holder, and this is the big take from Bloomberg News. 61 00:03:15,360 --> 00:03:18,120 Speaker 2: Give it to me straight. What's the general sense? Are 62 00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:21,640 Speaker 2: we doomed or are investors seeing reasons to be hopeful 63 00:03:21,639 --> 00:03:22,560 Speaker 2: in twenty twenty four. 64 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,440 Speaker 3: I've been doing this for about five or six years now. 65 00:03:26,880 --> 00:03:28,840 Speaker 1: The thing that stood out to me this year was 66 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:34,040 Speaker 1: slightly broader consensus than normal, and it's not a very 67 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 1: exciting one, I have to. 68 00:03:35,280 --> 00:03:38,400 Speaker 3: Say, nor is it scary. 69 00:03:39,760 --> 00:03:43,440 Speaker 1: Basically, the consensus on Wall Street at the moment is 70 00:03:43,800 --> 00:03:46,040 Speaker 1: that the interest rate hikes that we've seen over the 71 00:03:46,120 --> 00:03:49,600 Speaker 1: last eighteen months to two years, they're finally going to 72 00:03:49,720 --> 00:03:52,839 Speaker 1: start to bite properly, finally going to start to put 73 00:03:52,880 --> 00:03:54,920 Speaker 1: the brakes on the economy. So we're going to see 74 00:03:55,440 --> 00:04:00,400 Speaker 1: some economic slowdown, but it's not going to be expected 75 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:03,400 Speaker 1: to be extreme. It's going to be mild benign. These 76 00:04:03,400 --> 00:04:06,400 Speaker 1: are the sort of words they're throwing around, a healthy. 77 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:11,000 Speaker 2: Slowdown, a mild benign or healthy slowdown. In other words, 78 00:04:11,160 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 2: Sam says Wall Street is for the most part expecting 79 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:15,640 Speaker 2: that the US will pull off what's been called a 80 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:16,480 Speaker 2: soft landing. 81 00:04:17,000 --> 00:04:20,919 Speaker 1: The Fed, policy makers around the world, central bankers, they 82 00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 1: are trying to walk a typewrote. They're trying to increase 83 00:04:24,120 --> 00:04:26,680 Speaker 1: those borrowing costs to cool the economy so it's not 84 00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: growing too fast, so prices aren't rising too quick. But 85 00:04:30,839 --> 00:04:33,760 Speaker 1: they want to do it gently and hence the soft 86 00:04:33,880 --> 00:04:36,520 Speaker 1: They want to do it in a way that companies 87 00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:40,160 Speaker 1: can still borrow. It's more expensive, but it doesn't put 88 00:04:40,160 --> 00:04:43,839 Speaker 1: the brakes on their operations. Consumers can still spend and 89 00:04:43,880 --> 00:04:46,880 Speaker 1: have confidence in their jobs. It's a cooling of the 90 00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,560 Speaker 1: economy and a slight slow down, but that isn't so 91 00:04:50,760 --> 00:04:53,080 Speaker 1: tough that people feel it too much. 92 00:04:55,040 --> 00:04:57,760 Speaker 2: An important thing to know is those hundreds of Outlook 93 00:04:57,800 --> 00:05:00,480 Speaker 2: reports Sam and others have been reading and also come 94 00:05:00,520 --> 00:05:01,400 Speaker 2: out in November. 95 00:05:01,560 --> 00:05:04,279 Speaker 1: That means that they were all written and published, often 96 00:05:04,360 --> 00:05:07,360 Speaker 1: well before the final FED meeting of twenty twenty three. 97 00:05:07,520 --> 00:05:11,359 Speaker 4: Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on 98 00:05:11,440 --> 00:05:15,480 Speaker 4: our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices 99 00:05:15,839 --> 00:05:16,920 Speaker 4: for the American people. 100 00:05:17,880 --> 00:05:21,240 Speaker 1: So we've already seen in that final FED meeting the 101 00:05:21,279 --> 00:05:25,880 Speaker 1: first hints of the FED preparing for a pivot next year. 102 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 4: Today we decided to leave our policy indust rate unchanged 103 00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,720 Speaker 4: and to continue to reduce our securities holdings. Given how 104 00:05:32,760 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 4: far we have come, along with the uncertainties and risks 105 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:38,320 Speaker 4: that we face, the committee is proceeding carefully. 106 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:42,120 Speaker 1: It's an indication that the rate height cycle is at 107 00:05:42,120 --> 00:05:45,280 Speaker 1: its peak now, that we're not expecting any more increases, 108 00:05:45,680 --> 00:05:48,000 Speaker 1: and that the next move Willbeit it may be a 109 00:05:48,040 --> 00:05:50,599 Speaker 1: long way off, but the next actual move in rates 110 00:05:50,720 --> 00:05:55,280 Speaker 1: might be a cut, so possibly the broad view is 111 00:05:55,320 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: that the Fed's aggressive hiking, and it was aggressive hiking 112 00:05:59,480 --> 00:06:02,839 Speaker 1: the Fed. It has successfully put the brake on to inflation. 113 00:06:03,560 --> 00:06:06,400 Speaker 1: It's still at at a higher level, still above target. 114 00:06:06,680 --> 00:06:11,400 Speaker 1: But most of these outlooks, the majority certainly are expecting 115 00:06:11,880 --> 00:06:17,479 Speaker 1: disinflation to continue gradually. Inflation will will decline. I would 116 00:06:17,480 --> 00:06:20,320 Speaker 1: say that not a lot of the outlooks are expecting 117 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:23,320 Speaker 1: inflation to fall to the two percent target, at least 118 00:06:23,360 --> 00:06:27,360 Speaker 1: not next year, but they do generally believe it fall 119 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:31,280 Speaker 1: enough to take the pressure off the FED and to 120 00:06:31,640 --> 00:06:36,000 Speaker 1: allow some moderate interest rate cuts that would help just 121 00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:39,000 Speaker 1: guard against a steeper economic decline. 122 00:06:39,200 --> 00:06:42,920 Speaker 2: Declining interest rates, the taming of inflation. Those are all 123 00:06:42,960 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 2: good things in the eyes of the market, and after 124 00:06:45,560 --> 00:06:48,240 Speaker 2: most of those outlooks were published, the stock market went 125 00:06:48,320 --> 00:06:50,919 Speaker 2: on a tear. You can hear how exciting it was 126 00:06:51,000 --> 00:06:52,520 Speaker 2: for finance journalists at the time. 127 00:06:52,760 --> 00:06:54,680 Speaker 3: Tech acts were certainly in the start of the show. 128 00:06:54,720 --> 00:06:57,280 Speaker 1: For most of twenty twenty three, the so called Magnificent 129 00:06:57,400 --> 00:06:59,040 Speaker 1: seven fuel devices. 130 00:06:58,800 --> 00:07:01,880 Speaker 5: Very strong years, a strong run that is, of course, 131 00:07:02,120 --> 00:07:04,120 Speaker 5: you can chalk that up to the boom of interest 132 00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:06,640 Speaker 5: in AI that has helped lead the charge for the 133 00:07:06,680 --> 00:07:09,040 Speaker 5: so called magnificence Amazing. 134 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:12,520 Speaker 1: The Nazak one hundred is setting up for its best 135 00:07:12,600 --> 00:07:16,200 Speaker 1: year going back to nineteen ninety nine, the Composite for 136 00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:18,440 Speaker 1: its best year since two thousand and three. 137 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:21,000 Speaker 2: The Nazaq one hundred went up by fifty percent at 138 00:07:21,040 --> 00:07:23,560 Speaker 2: the end of twenty twenty three. That's the biggest run 139 00:07:23,640 --> 00:07:28,480 Speaker 2: since the dot com boom. A lot of regular people 140 00:07:28,800 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 2: who are not writing these investment outlooks feel like the 141 00:07:31,520 --> 00:07:35,280 Speaker 2: economy is worse than it looks on paper or actually is. 142 00:07:35,280 --> 00:07:38,080 Speaker 2: Is there a sense that the national mood in the 143 00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:41,000 Speaker 2: US is going to change in the next year. 144 00:07:42,360 --> 00:07:43,040 Speaker 3: I think. 145 00:07:44,640 --> 00:07:47,120 Speaker 1: You probably have to allow for the fact that Wall 146 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:53,600 Speaker 1: Street is maybe not well attuned to Main Street always. 147 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,679 Speaker 1: But the thing that surprised Wall Street and that surprised 148 00:07:57,720 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 1: everyone really was the strength particular of the Americans. 149 00:08:01,400 --> 00:08:01,880 Speaker 3: Consumer. 150 00:08:02,160 --> 00:08:04,840 Speaker 2: Financial analysts around the world were caught off guard by 151 00:08:04,840 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 2: how much money American consumers spent through twenty twenty three. 152 00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:11,040 Speaker 2: A lot of that excess spending was later attributed to 153 00:08:11,120 --> 00:08:13,840 Speaker 2: Americans being able to save extra money during the pandemic 154 00:08:14,280 --> 00:08:18,160 Speaker 2: with help from stimulus checks and pandemic closures. Sam says 155 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:20,679 Speaker 2: the broad view is that consumers will keep on spending 156 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:23,520 Speaker 2: through the next year, but not all of the reports 157 00:08:23,520 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 2: he read agree with that prediction. 158 00:08:25,680 --> 00:08:28,320 Speaker 1: The bearish guys out there, the outliers, are saying, well, 159 00:08:28,360 --> 00:08:32,000 Speaker 1: I hang on. The consumer is running out of cash, 160 00:08:32,280 --> 00:08:36,240 Speaker 1: the pandemic savings, the pandemic dividend that some called it. 161 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: People don't have that money anymore, and they're starting to 162 00:08:39,480 --> 00:08:43,160 Speaker 1: get nervous, and borrowing has become harder and more expensive. 163 00:08:43,200 --> 00:08:45,760 Speaker 1: And so the question for the year ahead is going 164 00:08:45,800 --> 00:08:49,000 Speaker 1: to be how resilient is the consumer going to stay. 165 00:08:49,679 --> 00:08:52,720 Speaker 3: Can't speak to the people. 166 00:08:52,440 --> 00:08:54,920 Speaker 1: On main street, but certainly the bears are worried that 167 00:08:55,160 --> 00:08:58,040 Speaker 1: consumers are running out of cash, and if they're right, 168 00:08:58,120 --> 00:09:01,320 Speaker 1: then it could be a harder landing than consensus thinks. 169 00:09:01,640 --> 00:09:04,839 Speaker 2: If twenty twenty four unfold like the outlooks say it will, 170 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:09,040 Speaker 2: how will the year feel for consumers around the world. 171 00:09:09,559 --> 00:09:14,240 Speaker 1: The outlooks pretty gloomy in terms of Europe, in terms 172 00:09:14,280 --> 00:09:18,720 Speaker 1: of the UK, those economies are not expected to be 173 00:09:18,800 --> 00:09:21,400 Speaker 1: firing on all cylinders anytime soon. 174 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 3: You know, China has been struggling with some own domestic issues. 175 00:09:24,640 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 1: It's not coming to rescue the world with sort of 176 00:09:26,600 --> 00:09:31,280 Speaker 1: powerhouse expansion or policies. Everyone's very domestically focused at the moment. 177 00:09:31,640 --> 00:09:35,040 Speaker 1: Europe is still trying to tame inflation. So there'll be 178 00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 1: no great demand surge, is the general view. It's going 179 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:41,640 Speaker 1: to be a kind of messy picture, and I don't 180 00:09:41,640 --> 00:09:44,400 Speaker 1: think that. I don't think that necessarily bodes brilliantly for 181 00:09:44,480 --> 00:09:48,319 Speaker 1: the consumer, because there's going to be no big boom. 182 00:09:48,480 --> 00:09:51,120 Speaker 2: Sam has been writing these outlooks for years, and he 183 00:09:51,160 --> 00:09:53,720 Speaker 2: says it's important to take these predictions with a grain 184 00:09:53,760 --> 00:09:54,120 Speaker 2: of salt. 185 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:56,920 Speaker 1: The truth is that probably three out of the last 186 00:09:56,960 --> 00:10:00,480 Speaker 1: four or five years have been very and to how 187 00:10:00,600 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: Wall Street expected. There seems to be we've been in 188 00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,679 Speaker 1: this period where something comes out of the blue to 189 00:10:08,679 --> 00:10:13,280 Speaker 1: disrupt everyone's kind of thesis. So in twenty twenty we 190 00:10:13,400 --> 00:10:18,479 Speaker 1: had the pandemic, which by March was debrailing economies worldwide. 191 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:23,960 Speaker 1: Changed the picture for everyone. In twenty twenty two, also 192 00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:28,480 Speaker 1: it was late February when Russia invaded Ukraine. Now the 193 00:10:28,480 --> 00:10:31,640 Speaker 1: impact of that was on energy priceis which feeds into 194 00:10:32,200 --> 00:10:36,160 Speaker 1: everything in the economy, so that tore up expectations there. 195 00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:39,720 Speaker 1: And then last year a lot of Wall Street expected 196 00:10:40,600 --> 00:10:43,800 Speaker 1: quite serious recession, or at least the recession to hear 197 00:10:44,320 --> 00:10:47,600 Speaker 1: because the FED was aggressively raising interest rates, making it 198 00:10:47,640 --> 00:10:51,360 Speaker 1: more expensive to borrow. We know from history that that's 199 00:10:51,440 --> 00:10:55,800 Speaker 1: going to hit the economy. So the last few years 200 00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,280 Speaker 1: have not been great for Wall Street's track record and 201 00:10:59,280 --> 00:11:04,160 Speaker 1: predicting the few But in their defense, there've been some 202 00:11:04,400 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 1: very unexpected things. 203 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:06,280 Speaker 3: That have gone on. 204 00:11:08,080 --> 00:11:11,680 Speaker 2: Those disruptive forces can also take the form of unexpected growth, 205 00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 2: like the surprising strength of the consumer and the explosive 206 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:19,120 Speaker 2: rise of AI related stocks. In twenty twenty three, Sam 207 00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:22,080 Speaker 2: says all the uncertainty and wrong predictions of the last 208 00:11:22,160 --> 00:11:24,640 Speaker 2: few years are likely part of what's behind this year's 209 00:11:24,960 --> 00:11:26,720 Speaker 2: middle of the road consensus view. 210 00:11:27,080 --> 00:11:30,320 Speaker 1: Perhaps that's a reaction to what has gone before. No 211 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:32,319 Speaker 1: one wants to make a really big call right if 212 00:11:32,320 --> 00:11:33,800 Speaker 1: you've improved wrong a. 213 00:11:33,720 --> 00:11:34,600 Speaker 3: Few years in a row. 214 00:11:34,880 --> 00:11:37,400 Speaker 2: There are a lot of unknowns on the horizon in 215 00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,120 Speaker 2: twenty twenty four. One of the big ones is whether 216 00:11:40,160 --> 00:11:43,640 Speaker 2: the AI frenzy can be expected to hold. Do experts 217 00:11:43,679 --> 00:11:46,280 Speaker 2: have a sense of whether that bubble will burst? 218 00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:52,920 Speaker 1: The outlook for twenty twenty four is actually pretty good 219 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:54,360 Speaker 1: regarding AI. 220 00:11:54,880 --> 00:11:58,120 Speaker 3: I think Wall Street doesn't see this as a sort 221 00:11:58,160 --> 00:11:59,240 Speaker 3: of flash in the pan. 222 00:12:00,600 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 1: It sees AI as a thematic shift or an evolution. 223 00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:09,000 Speaker 3: That isn't finished yet. 224 00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm sure a lot of people listening to 225 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:15,480 Speaker 1: this they will have used AI tools, and they'll know 226 00:12:15,600 --> 00:12:19,760 Speaker 1: that the benefits and limitations from what I can tell 227 00:12:19,760 --> 00:12:21,840 Speaker 1: from the outlooks, But a lot of them lay out 228 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: AI as an investment theme, not just for twenty twenty four, 229 00:12:24,760 --> 00:12:25,199 Speaker 1: but for the. 230 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:26,080 Speaker 3: Next couple of years. 231 00:12:26,240 --> 00:12:30,000 Speaker 2: Elections are another big unknown. In twenty twenty four, voters 232 00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:33,280 Speaker 2: could change the political leadership of nearly half the global economy. 233 00:12:33,520 --> 00:12:36,840 Speaker 2: We've got elections coming up in Taiwan, the UK, India, 234 00:12:36,920 --> 00:12:40,840 Speaker 2: the US. How are investment outlooks grappling with those specific 235 00:12:41,080 --> 00:12:42,080 Speaker 2: political unknowns. 236 00:12:42,320 --> 00:12:46,800 Speaker 1: The biggest issue probably is the US election. The US 237 00:12:46,880 --> 00:12:50,800 Speaker 1: is the biggest economy, it leads the world. Whoever wins 238 00:12:50,800 --> 00:12:54,160 Speaker 1: the election will set the term for foreign policy, economic policy, 239 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:57,800 Speaker 1: and that feeds into all the other economies and markets 240 00:12:57,800 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 1: in the world. And yet there is no clear front 241 00:13:01,360 --> 00:13:05,400 Speaker 1: runner for the election in the US yet, and so 242 00:13:05,559 --> 00:13:08,760 Speaker 1: most of the outlooks they're not ready to make a 243 00:13:08,800 --> 00:13:10,720 Speaker 1: call on that yet. 244 00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,240 Speaker 3: Or they'll say something that will h their best assisting. 245 00:13:13,760 --> 00:13:17,000 Speaker 1: Just prepare for volatility, be ready, and it will get 246 00:13:17,040 --> 00:13:17,800 Speaker 1: worse as we get. 247 00:13:17,720 --> 00:13:18,560 Speaker 3: Closer to the addction. 248 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:21,360 Speaker 2: So much of what will affect markets in twenty twenty 249 00:13:21,400 --> 00:13:25,160 Speaker 2: four is nearly impossible to predict. So what's the value 250 00:13:25,280 --> 00:13:30,360 Speaker 2: of all these outlooks that's coming up? With so many unknowns, 251 00:13:30,440 --> 00:13:33,000 Speaker 2: it is always possible that the consensus view will prove 252 00:13:33,040 --> 00:13:35,960 Speaker 2: to be wrong one outlook, Sam Read called it a 253 00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:39,160 Speaker 2: fairy tale. That means it's also possible one of the 254 00:13:39,200 --> 00:13:43,120 Speaker 2: outliers will be right. So what are they saying on 255 00:13:43,160 --> 00:13:46,680 Speaker 2: the whole? SAMs reporting shows that they're mostly negative. BCA 256 00:13:46,720 --> 00:13:49,640 Speaker 2: Research says the macro picture is more troubling now than 257 00:13:49,679 --> 00:13:52,560 Speaker 2: it was twelve months ago. Deutsche Bank is bracing for 258 00:13:52,600 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 2: a hard US landing, But there are also some who 259 00:13:55,760 --> 00:13:59,800 Speaker 2: take a more optimistic view. UBS Asset Management says Global 260 00:13:59,800 --> 00:14:02,040 Speaker 2: ex what he could reach an all time high, and 261 00:14:02,160 --> 00:14:05,839 Speaker 2: Commonwealth Financial Network expects a Goldilocks economy to offer an 262 00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:10,040 Speaker 2: ideal state for financial markets. Given all this, I put 263 00:14:10,040 --> 00:14:13,800 Speaker 2: it to Sam, how much trust are you placing in 264 00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:15,400 Speaker 2: this year's market outlook? 265 00:14:17,120 --> 00:14:20,760 Speaker 1: Well, I've been covering markets and Wall Street long enough 266 00:14:21,160 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: to know that at the end of the day, nobody 267 00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:28,000 Speaker 1: knows anything because you see the biggest experts humbled by 268 00:14:28,240 --> 00:14:32,560 Speaker 1: unexpected things, and you see people get lucky all the 269 00:14:32,560 --> 00:14:36,200 Speaker 1: time or very unlucky. It is a thankless task for 270 00:14:36,240 --> 00:14:40,480 Speaker 1: these guys doing this every year, knowing because it's like 271 00:14:40,520 --> 00:14:41,400 Speaker 1: an expected thing. 272 00:14:41,480 --> 00:14:43,120 Speaker 3: You tell me what's going to happen next year. 273 00:14:43,680 --> 00:14:47,120 Speaker 1: Everyone knows that the world could be very different in 274 00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:49,320 Speaker 1: a few weeks, never mind a few months. 275 00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:51,120 Speaker 3: So but they show. 276 00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:52,960 Speaker 1: Up, they keep doing it, and I like to look 277 00:14:53,000 --> 00:14:56,280 Speaker 1: at it for ideas and to see who's reasoning it 278 00:14:56,320 --> 00:14:58,880 Speaker 1: out and why they think this, what the rationale is 279 00:14:59,720 --> 00:15:01,960 Speaker 1: in a way to inform some of the reporting that 280 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,200 Speaker 1: we do in the year ahead, you know, because we'll 281 00:15:04,240 --> 00:15:06,800 Speaker 1: be looking in certain areas and looking for certain things. 282 00:15:07,320 --> 00:15:09,400 Speaker 3: So it's just a fascinating project for me. 283 00:15:10,120 --> 00:15:12,200 Speaker 2: Thank you so much, Sam, really appreciate it. 284 00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 3: My pleasure. Thanks for having me. 285 00:15:16,720 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Big Take from Bloomberg News. 286 00:15:19,400 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 2: I'm Sarah Holder. This episode was produced by David Fox. 287 00:15:23,200 --> 00:15:25,800 Speaker 2: It was edited by Jilda Di Carly and William Selway. 288 00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:28,920 Speaker 2: It was fact checked by Tiffany Choi. It was mixed 289 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 2: by Alex Sugura. Sage Bauman is our executive producer and 290 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:36,720 Speaker 2: head of Podcasts. Thanks for tuning in, We'll be back tomorrow.