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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Ju us prow

2
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Speaker 1: read enough.

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Speaker 2: No, we're running again, so smoothe so sweet slidid sixteen

4
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Speaker 2: just glorious extecution. Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty

5
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Speaker 2: percent effort four thousand percent of the time. How shot

6
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Speaker 2: with that? Shop with mind and buddy, and that's why

7
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Speaker 2: you see your beautiful tiers. Look at his movements, the

8
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Speaker 2: most dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 3: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The love is left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 1: Drilled bibus. How on earth pick that happens? Hello everyone,

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Speaker 1: Welcome back to wondergl the soccer betting podcast from the

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Speaker 1: Action Network, presented to you by Bet three sixty five.

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Speaker 1: My name is Michael liebuff Me. As always for this

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Speaker 1: our Match Week eight episode are my co hosts and

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Speaker 1: friends Anthony Debundo and bj Cunningham. Together the three of

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Speaker 1: us are going to go on a handicapping adventure through

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Speaker 1: all ten matches in the Premier League. We'll touch on

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Speaker 1: the Bundesliga La Liga Siria League. Give out our three

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Speaker 1: leg underdog parlay this week is a whopper one hundred

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Speaker 1: and eighty two to one, and then give our favorite

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Speaker 1: bets for match Week eight of the Premier League, Coming

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Speaker 1: your wife Saturday and Sunday before the international break. Before

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Speaker 1: I bring those guys in, just a reminder that Wonder

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Speaker 1: Goal is proudly presented by Bet three six five and

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Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary. It believes that

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Speaker 1: every sport should be epic. Every tournament, every game, every point,

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Speaker 1: every play, from the moments that are legendary to the

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Speaker 1: ones that fly under the radar. See for yourself when

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Speaker 1: you sign up with Promo Code Action and you'll get

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Speaker 1: three hundred and sixty five dollars and bonus bets when

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Speaker 1: you bet just one dollar. Whatever the sport, whatever the moment,

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Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At Bet three six five, you must

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Speaker 1: be twenty one or older. You must also be present

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Speaker 1: in Colorado, Iowa, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia. And

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Speaker 1: if you or someone you know has a gambling problem

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Speaker 1: and wants help, please don't hesitate to call wennye hundred

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Speaker 1: gambler in Colorado, Kentucky, New Jersey, Ohio, and Virginia or

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Speaker 1: one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms and conditions apply.

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Speaker 1: BJ Anthony Fun week of Champions League soccer. We're all

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Speaker 1: over our boys from istanbul Galla Tassarai.

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Speaker 2: Welcome to Hell.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I was in Hell today, so a lot of

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Speaker 1: fun I'm calling for.

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Speaker 2: Last week I called for a ban on red cards.

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Speaker 2: Now I'm calling for a ban on stoppage time. Yeah.

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Speaker 1: I think we can make I feel as though. I

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Speaker 1: also would like the if we didn't, I'd also like

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Speaker 1: the Liverpool and Tottenham match to be replayed, like your

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Speaker 1: coop said.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, look, I'm okay with that the same price. Let

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Speaker 2: me bet Tottenham plus a half.

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Speaker 3: Get cooked for another sixty minutes.

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Speaker 1: All right, before we scare anyone away any new listeners.

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Speaker 1: By the way, thank you to everyone who keeps returning

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Speaker 1: and joining the fine. If you haven't, please rate, review

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Speaker 1: and subscribe. Five stars would be quite nice. We'll start

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Speaker 1: with the headliner Sunday morning, eleven thirty am Arsenal and

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Speaker 1: City at the Emirates Arsenal plus two hundred slight underdog

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Speaker 1: at home, City plus one thirty seven and the draws

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Speaker 1: plus two thirty City right of the ship a little

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Speaker 1: bit with the win over Leipzig. That was when we

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Speaker 1: got wrong there and City was I thought really good.

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Speaker 1: So tip your cap to PEPs mean for getting back

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Speaker 1: on track after losing two straight to Newcastle in the

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Speaker 1: EFL Cup and then Wolves Mighty Mighty Wolves BJ. You're

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Speaker 1: the Arsenal guy here, so we'll just start with you.

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Speaker 1: Anything you see from a betting standpoint here, No.

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Speaker 3: Really, As an Arsenal fan, I'll probably watching this from

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Speaker 3: behind the couch. So I think there's a couple interesting

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Speaker 3: things that Arsenal could have done if Saga and Martinelli

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Speaker 3: were healthy for this match. Now, I still think that

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Speaker 3: Arsenal ken put a makeshift starting eleven out there that

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Speaker 3: can compete with City here. And really what it comes

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Speaker 3: down to is they need to do successfully what they

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Speaker 3: were able to do to them in the Community Shield

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Speaker 3: when they went down a goal and came back. And

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Speaker 3: really what that is is they need to start creating

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Speaker 3: overloads in wide areas. So when they went behind against City,

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Speaker 3: City over the course of the match eventually got to

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Speaker 3: a box midfield started creating overloads there. So what Arsenal

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Speaker 3: did is when they usually build out in a three

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Speaker 3: two five Odagar just started completely pushing the soaka side.

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Speaker 3: Ben White moved up there, so they had this overload

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Speaker 3: on the right side of the pitch where Grealish and

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Speaker 3: Kovachich had to make decisions on whether they press or

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Speaker 3: who who they cover, and Arsenal was able to create

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Speaker 3: chances via that. Now I think now I'm guessing Sock

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Speaker 3: and Martin Lli are not going to play as of

91
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Speaker 3: right now. They both looked doubtful. What I would like

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Speaker 3: to see Arte to do Thomas Party is healthy, which

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Speaker 3: I think is very, very crucial for Arsenal in this match.

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Speaker 3: He played in that community shield alongside Declan Rice in

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Speaker 3: the middle of the pitch, which is massive for Arsenal

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Speaker 3: trying to stop City from going through the middle. So

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Speaker 3: I would like to see Kai Havevertz, then move out

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Speaker 3: to the right wing where he did play at Leverkusen

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Speaker 3: for a long time, move Gabriellejesus to the left, and

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Speaker 3: then bring the world's best striker adding Nikaya up top,

101
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Speaker 3: and there you have a decent front three with Rice

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Speaker 3: and Party next to each other, with Arsenal's usual back four.

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Speaker 3: So I think that they could set up pretty well there.

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Speaker 3: The problem is executing that against City. The City will

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Speaker 3: be without Rodri, which is a massive loss for them.

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Speaker 3: You saw that against Wolves. Kobachi's just is not as

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Speaker 3: good involved progression. He's not as good at winning duels

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Speaker 3: in the middle of the pitch as Rodriy is, so

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Speaker 3: City loses a lot of that there. From a betting perspective,

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Speaker 3: I think the price is about right here. I have

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Speaker 3: City projected at plus one thirty five toll a two

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Speaker 3: point seven, so I'm right in line with where the

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Speaker 3: market is. I don't think I can stomach a both

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Speaker 3: teams to score no here, which I think is a

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Speaker 3: decent price. So I think the match is going to

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Speaker 3: be played pretty slow, and whoever goes ahead it's really

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Speaker 3: going to value game control. So for me, I am passing.

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Speaker 3: I know it sucks to pass on the biggest match,

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Speaker 3: but if you if I were to play anything, it'd

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Speaker 3: be both teams to score now, which I think is

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Speaker 3: that plus one forty five or so right now?

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this one feels like a good bet

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Speaker 1: for the draw. A lot of times you'll see that

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Speaker 1: number tick up as we get closer to kickoff because

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Speaker 1: nobody wants to bet into it. And it's also terms,

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Speaker 1: like you said, in terms of game state or game approach,

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Speaker 1: both of these teams want to be on the ball.

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Speaker 1: I think it could be pretty lumbering. And we've seen

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Speaker 1: a lot of these Top six matches. There was a

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Speaker 1: reputation like three years ago that the matches amongst the

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Speaker 1: Top six were kind of drab and very cagey, and

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Speaker 1: then all of a sudden it shifted to them being,

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Speaker 1: you know, kind of bonkers. But these two teams, I

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Speaker 1: think profile is it being more towards that cage kind

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Speaker 1: of affair. It would be a draw bet for me here.

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Speaker 1: I think low event match, But I can also see

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Speaker 1: myself on the nil nil believe it or not. Anthony,

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Speaker 1: what about you?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, Look, we've had a good number of games of

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Speaker 2: Ourteta versus Guardiola now and we can kind of go

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Speaker 2: into what they've been and if you look at it,

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Speaker 2: you know, well, you know, Bja referenced the Community Shield match.

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Speaker 2: There were only fifteen shot attempts in that match, the

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Speaker 2: entire match, and that you know, was zero zero until

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Speaker 2: the seventy seventh minute. Arsenal had a bunch of late

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Speaker 2: chances in stoppage time and found the equalizer one on pens.

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Speaker 2: We can go back to last season's first meeting where

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Speaker 2: there were basically two free goals where you know, Arsenal

149
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Speaker 2: made a mistake to give Debrunna the inn, and then

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Speaker 2: Arsenal got a penalty, and really the flow of the

151
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Speaker 2: game was pointing toward the under as well, and that

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Speaker 2: game finished with less than two and a half non

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Speaker 2: penalty expected goals. And then you can go back to

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Speaker 2: last year's FA Cup meeting in January when Yes, City rotated,

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Speaker 2: but there were very few shot attempts in the game.

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Speaker 2: There were only eight shot attempts in that game, City

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Speaker 2: one one nil. The meeting that they had that BJ

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Speaker 2: has still been so excited about from New Year's Day

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Speaker 2: of the year before when Arsenal finally started their biggest

160
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Speaker 2: cent was not a particularly high event match either. The

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Speaker 2: only one that was, you know, a higher event style

162
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Speaker 2: was the Spring League meeting where I bet the under

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Speaker 2: and I think BJ bet the gunners and and it

164
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Speaker 2: was like four to one. The City. They kind of

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Speaker 2: poured it on late, and that was interesting because Pep

166
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Speaker 2: kind of spurged Arsenal like they they played off the

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Speaker 2: ball a lot. They used Dobruna and holland kind of

168
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Speaker 2: how Caine and so on playoff one another where one

169
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Speaker 2: comes short, one runs in behind. And it was actually

170
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Speaker 2: Holland coming short, Dobruna going in behind. But remember that

171
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Speaker 2: was uh and they brought them apart. I mean they

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Speaker 2: destroyed them in the match. That was a City team

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Speaker 2: with Dobruna and that was an Arsenal team without Saliba.

174
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Speaker 2: So there were some tactical differences there, and I think

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Speaker 2: Arteta has to be more pragmatic than he was in

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Speaker 2: that match in the spring. I think he'll learn from

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Speaker 2: that and realize that City play on the break is

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Speaker 2: even more dangerous than letting them have the ball, because

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Speaker 2: I think Pep is going to take this in a

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00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:09,760
Speaker 2: very conservative light, and we saw this in the Newcastle match.

181
00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:14,120
Speaker 2: We saw this even even against Leipzig today. City was

182
00:09:14,160 --> 00:09:17,640
Speaker 2: not particularly aggressive in possession. Most of their stuff came

183
00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:20,240
Speaker 2: in high turnovers where they were able to quickly break

184
00:09:20,240 --> 00:09:22,640
Speaker 2: off of those. But they are not going to commit

185
00:09:22,720 --> 00:09:26,320
Speaker 2: numbers forward in transition or even in settled possession. It's

186
00:09:26,320 --> 00:09:28,800
Speaker 2: going to be very pragmatic, and I think that's especially

187
00:09:28,880 --> 00:09:31,160
Speaker 2: true after they got you know, kind of cooked by

188
00:09:31,200 --> 00:09:34,079
Speaker 2: Wolves without Rudrey. So I like under two and a

189
00:09:34,080 --> 00:09:36,079
Speaker 2: half here. I like it even more if Socca doesn't play,

190
00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:39,080
Speaker 2: because I think that that's a huge loss. That's Arsenal's

191
00:09:39,120 --> 00:09:40,880
Speaker 2: best attacker. If you just look at XG plus x

192
00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:43,360
Speaker 2: A per ninety, he's been clearly their best attacker. So

193
00:09:43,960 --> 00:09:45,560
Speaker 2: I don't think he's going to play. I think Ourteta

194
00:09:45,600 --> 00:09:47,240
Speaker 2: needs to kind of take a step back here and

195
00:09:47,280 --> 00:09:50,240
Speaker 2: realize that like throwing him out there when he's not

196
00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:53,280
Speaker 2: fully fit like he did on Tuesday against Lawn like backfired,

197
00:09:53,360 --> 00:09:56,520
Speaker 2: and you know, hamstrings are not one to risk reinjury with.

198
00:09:56,640 --> 00:10:00,640
Speaker 2: So I'm expecting a conservative Arsenal and a deservative city

199
00:10:00,640 --> 00:10:02,880
Speaker 2: and in a low scoring affair like a one nil

200
00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:04,480
Speaker 2: one kind of game, I'm going under two and a

201
00:10:04,520 --> 00:10:05,160
Speaker 2: half for me.

202
00:10:05,559 --> 00:10:08,559
Speaker 1: Noil nil ten to one. I've listened to both of

203
00:10:08,600 --> 00:10:11,520
Speaker 1: you talk. Was my thinking going into it. I'm going

204
00:10:11,559 --> 00:10:14,840
Speaker 1: to be on that. Uh on to Brighton and Liverpool. Well,

205
00:10:14,840 --> 00:10:18,000
Speaker 1: we'll see who Liverpool plays this weekend. It might be Tattenham, Yeah,

206
00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:20,720
Speaker 1: it might be, It might be, it might be might see.

207
00:10:20,960 --> 00:10:21,560
Speaker 1: We'll see what.

208
00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:26,720
Speaker 2: Wants to put that out there. Yeah, uh just one

209
00:10:26,800 --> 00:10:28,000
Speaker 2: ends nil nil. I may not.

210
00:10:28,040 --> 00:10:30,680
Speaker 1: I might have to quit the podcast, Okay, Yeah, we'll

211
00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:33,280
Speaker 1: see if we can find a replacement for you. When

212
00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,480
Speaker 1: it does. Brighton to two to one at home. Uh,

213
00:10:37,120 --> 00:10:39,959
Speaker 1: Liverpool a road favorite plus one twenty and the Jaws

214
00:10:40,320 --> 00:10:46,280
Speaker 1: plus too eighty. Pretty easy decision here. I don't know

215
00:10:46,320 --> 00:10:50,480
Speaker 1: how you don't bet Brighton as a home dog to

216
00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:53,760
Speaker 1: a team they've given so many problems too, even with

217
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Speaker 1: the SURBI over the past few years, and Is Anthony

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Speaker 1: and BJ have talked to a lot. The Liverpool defensive

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Speaker 1: numbers are not as good as they seem or as

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Speaker 1: sparkling as they seem when you look at the way

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Speaker 1: games are going and the way teams are building up

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Speaker 1: against them. I don't think that they've solved it yet.

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Speaker 1: Maybe a little bit improved from last season, but still

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Speaker 1: an issue. And I don't think you want to be

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Speaker 1: leaky against the team like Brighton, So Seagulls plus two

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Speaker 1: hundred couldn't have been easier for me once I saw

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Speaker 1: the number. DJ.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, Brighton plus a half minus one forty. So this

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Speaker 3: is very interesting. You mentioned, you know last year bright

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Speaker 3: Brighton pumped them three nothing at the MX and their

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Speaker 3: second Premier League meeting the first one. I believe it

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Speaker 3: was Deservey's first match in charge of Brighton and it

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Speaker 3: ended up being like a three to three thriller and

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Speaker 3: Brighton just continually was cooking Liverpool in transition. Well, what

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Speaker 3: ended up happening was is that second Premier League meeting

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Speaker 3: where Brighton won three nothing. Liverpool tried to press them high,

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Speaker 3: and they try, they took Deserbey's bait, and time and

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Speaker 3: time again, Brighton was able to get in behind and

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Speaker 3: trade chances and ended up creating close to two expected

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Speaker 3: goals in the match and now shot Liverpool sixteen to six,

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Speaker 3: seventy four percent field till really really dominant match. Then

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Speaker 3: they played fifteen days later in the FA Cup at

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Speaker 3: Brighton and Klop didn't take the bait. He said, we're

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Speaker 3: sitting off, we're not pressing high. We can't do it

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Speaker 3: against Brighton, and it ended up being a very kind

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Speaker 3: of slow like sloggy match for a long time. The

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Speaker 3: first goal didn't come. Excuse me, the first goal came

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Speaker 3: around the thirtieth minute. But Liverpool now is kind of

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Speaker 3: doing what they did in that FA Cup match. Klop

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Speaker 3: knows he can't press high anymore. So Liverpool has been

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Speaker 3: sitting off and off and off. And you know, I

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Speaker 3: went back and watched the first twenty minutes of the

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Speaker 3: Tottenham match just before the red card happened to see

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Speaker 3: what would Liverpool do to an elite build up team,

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Speaker 3: because if you look at the teams that they've played

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Speaker 3: so far this season, they haven't played an elite build

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Speaker 3: a team or someone like they're going to play against Brighton.

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Speaker 3: And what they kept doing is they were very aggressive

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Speaker 3: in trying to disrupt to and build a play and

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Speaker 3: Curtis Jones just keep him flying in like time and

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Speaker 3: time and time again from the midfield, just trying to

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Speaker 3: get the ball out of the goalkeeper's feet and not

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Speaker 3: allow Todden to play short passes. Well, he suspended for

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Speaker 3: this match, so that's not going to happen. So now

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Speaker 3: Liverpool is going to be back to what we've seen

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Speaker 3: through about the first five or six matches, which is

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Speaker 3: mcallisturn a makeshift six roll with Soba slide next to

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Speaker 3: him and Liverpool not really having a defensive ball stopper

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Speaker 3: in the middle of the pitch. So what they've been

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Speaker 3: doing is they've been trying to close off the middle

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Speaker 3: of the pitch. Teams have been able to get out

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Speaker 3: in wide areas against them. It looks like Trent Alexander

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Speaker 3: Arnold is going to be back for this match, which

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Speaker 3: him going against me. Toma is Oh boy, that's going

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Speaker 3: to be an advantage of Brighton. But what Brighton also

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Speaker 3: does is they like to bring an extra midfielder in

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Speaker 3: the middle of the pitch. Like they're one of the

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Speaker 3: best teams in the world at building out through the

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Speaker 3: middle of the pitch. But they don't just go through

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Speaker 3: the middle like they can create overloads in wide areas,

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Speaker 3: they can get guys in one on one situations like

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Speaker 3: they are we talk about so many times. They're just

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Speaker 3: unbelievably elite offense that Liverpool just can't control. And I'm

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Speaker 3: I'm really shocked to see Liverpool as a road favorite here. Like,

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Speaker 3: I just don't get it. I don't know what the

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Speaker 3: market really sees in them right now. I mean, maybe

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Speaker 3: it's just all of Brighton's defensive issues, which is a

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Speaker 3: concern here. But no gakpo, like I said, no Curtis Jones,

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Speaker 3: no diego Jota. So when Liverpool's got a match against

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Speaker 3: Onion St. Jelosi, which is owned by the same the

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Speaker 3: Brighton's owner also owns Union St. Jelosi, so might be

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Speaker 3: able to do some little some scouting or some test

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Speaker 3: some things out against Liverpool on Thursday. Who knows, but no,

294
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Speaker 3: this is this is a crazy price. There's no way,

295
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Speaker 3: there's no way Liverpool should be a road favorite here.

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Speaker 3: This is crazy. So Brighton plus a half minus one forty.

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Speaker 1: What do you think, Anthony?

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Speaker 2: I think you can largely just put what we just

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Speaker 2: said on last week's episode about Spurs and Liverpool and

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Speaker 2: then just kind of like yep, replay that almost into

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Speaker 2: the Saturday discussion, because like, it's the same price, Arsenal Simmie.

302
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Speaker 2: Spurs are a little bit shorter Liverpool. You know, it

303
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Speaker 2: was like plus one twenty here consensus against Brighton. They

304
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Speaker 2: were like plus one ten fifteen we recorded last week.

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Speaker 2: So it's the same price. And I still have Brighton.

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Speaker 2: We're gonna talk about Tottenham. I still have Brighton power

307
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Speaker 2: ad better than them by a marginal amount. I mean

308
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Speaker 2: it's pretty comparable. Brighten a little worse defensively, Brighten a

309
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Speaker 2: little better in attack. If you think about the Seagulls,

310
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Speaker 2: they will not have a Stupnon He's gonna be out

311
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Speaker 2: a while now, so that hurts. But they have kind

312
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Speaker 2: of some natural fits here. They can they can play

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Speaker 2: gross over there, they can kind of mix and match

314
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Speaker 2: what they want to do. Lampty could come in. I

315
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Speaker 2: know it's not his natural side, but he can play

316
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Speaker 2: in that role. I worry about the defensive midfield. But

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Speaker 2: like you said, BJ, like there are real injuries here

318
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Speaker 2: for and suspensions for Liverpool now with the you know,

319
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Speaker 2: the main guys they like to use in the center suspended.

320
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Speaker 2: The one thing that I don't love is that that

321
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Speaker 2: probably means Nunez starts, and I still think he's the

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Speaker 2: best guy for that role. So in a way that

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Speaker 2: might actually make Liverpool better to not start Gakpo or Jota.

324
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Speaker 2: But certainly from a death perspective, you know, Nunia's has

325
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Speaker 2: not been playing ninety minutes. Once he comes off the pitch,

326
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Speaker 2: who do they go to in that central role? So

327
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Speaker 2: I think you're looking at a real situation there, you know,

328
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Speaker 2: with Diaz and Salah you know, kind of carrying the

329
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Speaker 2: load and Nunia is not maybe being fully ready for

330
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Speaker 2: ninety who's the fourth guy? So that's a real question.

331
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Speaker 2: But then I think from the other side of it, Look,

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Speaker 2: we saw Brighton get housed in transition defense already this year.

333
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Speaker 2: They played west Ham, they lost three, they get up

334
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Speaker 2: three goals three extra year at home. What happened the

335
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Speaker 2: next week they were home. I thought we all agreed

336
00:16:40,120 --> 00:16:43,040
Speaker 2: they were undervalued. Against Newcastle they put in a great performance,

337
00:16:43,400 --> 00:16:46,080
Speaker 2: so now you know, at an even better price than

338
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Speaker 2: we got. Then we get them against Liverpool, who is

339
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Speaker 2: more flawed defensively. Okay, not as good an attack, but

340
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Speaker 2: more flawed defensively. I think Liverpool and Newcastle are relatively

341
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Speaker 2: comparable at the moment. I have Liverpool slightly better, but

342
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Speaker 2: again I'm going to take the dog plus a half here.

343
00:16:59,280 --> 00:17:01,480
Speaker 2: Both teams to score first half, which I joked about

344
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Speaker 2: last week and did cash again despite them being down

345
00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:06,800
Speaker 2: ten men is now below plus two hundred most books,

346
00:17:06,800 --> 00:17:09,960
Speaker 2: which is insane to think about in the Premier League.

347
00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:12,480
Speaker 2: But yeah, it just shows you how far the market's

348
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Speaker 2: gone on this. And both teams score first half. I

349
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Speaker 2: believe has cashed in all but one Liverpool game if

350
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Speaker 2: you go the only game we did not cash was

351
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Speaker 2: Fillo match where they kept a clean sheet. But if

352
00:17:23,680 --> 00:17:28,000
Speaker 2: you pull up the numbers, they've been very good in

353
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Speaker 2: that that regard scoring early, conceding early, going down and

354
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Speaker 2: coming back. Liverpool's like the best live betting team in

355
00:17:33,760 --> 00:17:36,719
Speaker 2: the world right now. Even there. Even in their Europa

356
00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:39,400
Speaker 2: League match against the against lask they were down one nail,

357
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,760
Speaker 2: came back to win. West Ham won to one. Leicester

358
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Speaker 2: City in the and the League Cup. You know, Spurs,

359
00:17:45,440 --> 00:17:47,680
Speaker 2: they get the gold equalize, should have been up one.

360
00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:51,080
Speaker 3: Nil, concede early, look like crap, turn it on and

361
00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:53,200
Speaker 3: win three to one. So Liverpool does before.

362
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Speaker 2: They don't do that this week?

363
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Speaker 1: Uh okay, so all of us leaning towards Brighton here,

364
00:17:58,960 --> 00:18:01,919
Speaker 1: I think all of us will be leaning in the

365
00:18:01,960 --> 00:18:05,320
Speaker 1: same direction on this one. Uh So we'll be betting

366
00:18:05,359 --> 00:18:09,119
Speaker 1: against Anthony's Liverpool against Brighton and will also be betting

367
00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:13,680
Speaker 1: against Anthony's Liverpool Spurs. Excuse me here? With Looton down,

368
00:18:14,119 --> 00:18:18,360
Speaker 1: who I thought looked alright against Burnley. If they beat Everton,

369
00:18:18,440 --> 00:18:20,000
Speaker 1: then they lose to Burnley and what I thought was

370
00:18:20,040 --> 00:18:22,800
Speaker 1: a decent effort on Tuesday while everybody else was watching

371
00:18:22,840 --> 00:18:27,520
Speaker 1: Champions League plus five fifty at home hosting Tottenham minus

372
00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:29,920
Speaker 1: two twenty five and the draw is plus three seventy five. Anthony,

373
00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,160
Speaker 1: is the question I wanted to pose to you if

374
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Speaker 1: this was matched week one or two, what would this

375
00:18:35,080 --> 00:18:35,679
Speaker 1: line look like?

376
00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:40,679
Speaker 2: Yeah? I think Spurs minus one sixty five. Yeah, roughly,

377
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:42,199
Speaker 2: I don't have that in front of me, but I

378
00:18:42,200 --> 00:18:44,720
Speaker 2: could actually probably pull that up. But yeah, one sixty

379
00:18:44,720 --> 00:18:45,720
Speaker 2: five scenes about right to me.

380
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:48,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think I think that's right, and it's just

381
00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:51,200
Speaker 1: so the question is, I think we know that Spurs

382
00:18:51,200 --> 00:18:53,520
Speaker 1: are better than what we thought coming into the year,

383
00:18:53,840 --> 00:18:58,840
Speaker 1: M five better, They're playing better. I think you can

384
00:18:58,920 --> 00:19:04,320
Speaker 1: just give it to them and Lutontown maybe a touch,

385
00:19:06,200 --> 00:19:08,800
Speaker 1: a touch worse or better. You can make an argument

386
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,320
Speaker 1: either way, a little worse, you think, so, Yeah, I

387
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:17,000
Speaker 1: don't think, I think whatever it is. But the question

388
00:19:17,080 --> 00:19:23,440
Speaker 1: is is that the reaction justified basically, and I would

389
00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:26,800
Speaker 1: say it's probably not. I think that Lutontown's probably worth

390
00:19:26,800 --> 00:19:29,560
Speaker 1: a bet here, not a fun one because this could

391
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:34,160
Speaker 1: be for nothing within thirty minutes. But if Luton Town

392
00:19:34,160 --> 00:19:37,919
Speaker 1: can get their dip teeth into this game, I don't know.

393
00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,280
Speaker 1: I don't think Spurs really just are going to throughout

394
00:19:40,280 --> 00:19:41,720
Speaker 1: this entire season. I just don't think they're going to

395
00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:43,879
Speaker 1: profile as well as a big favorite because of the

396
00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:47,480
Speaker 1: high risk, high rewards style that they play. So I'm

397
00:19:47,480 --> 00:19:49,840
Speaker 1: gonna be on the hatters here, and unfortunately I'm going

398
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:53,760
Speaker 1: to be on the hatters on the money line, Anthony,

399
00:19:54,320 --> 00:19:55,080
Speaker 1: what are your thoughts?

400
00:19:56,600 --> 00:20:01,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, so Tottenham has still been bad defensively, and I

401
00:20:01,040 --> 00:20:04,080
Speaker 2: think we need to not overlook that they played a

402
00:20:04,119 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 2: ten man Liverpool and then a nine man Liverpool and

403
00:20:07,040 --> 00:20:10,760
Speaker 2: still conceded over one expected goal in that match. The

404
00:20:10,840 --> 00:20:13,280
Speaker 2: high turnovers against Arsenal led to some real issues in

405
00:20:13,320 --> 00:20:17,120
Speaker 2: that match. They conceded, you know, in the match to Sheffield,

406
00:20:17,119 --> 00:20:19,240
Speaker 2: in the match to Burnley, con seated twice in that one.

407
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:23,480
Speaker 2: Burnley was really taking it to them early. The United

408
00:20:23,520 --> 00:20:25,600
Speaker 2: match they didn't concede, but like they were giving up

409
00:20:25,640 --> 00:20:27,359
Speaker 2: a bunch of chances. So if you just pull up,

410
00:20:27,440 --> 00:20:32,440
Speaker 2: like expect a goal differential, Tottham is plus point four,

411
00:20:32,480 --> 00:20:34,440
Speaker 2: which is about a top four contender. It's about what

412
00:20:34,440 --> 00:20:38,440
Speaker 2: you'd expect. But they have run really well both defensively

413
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:40,159
Speaker 2: and an attack. Now, the attacking thing we kind of

414
00:20:40,359 --> 00:20:42,240
Speaker 2: come to expect because of who takes the shots for them,

415
00:20:42,320 --> 00:20:46,199
Speaker 2: sawn In Madison career plus finishers. The defensive stuff, I mean,

416
00:20:46,240 --> 00:20:48,920
Speaker 2: Viccario has been really good. His shot stopping has been

417
00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,240
Speaker 2: a big key for Spurs. If you compare him to

418
00:20:51,280 --> 00:20:54,320
Speaker 2: like Larisse last year, it's a major upgrading goal. So

419
00:20:54,400 --> 00:20:55,679
Speaker 2: you know, you give them maybe a little bit of

420
00:20:55,680 --> 00:20:59,160
Speaker 2: a bump there, but this is still a defense that's

421
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:01,760
Speaker 2: giving up a lot of high turnovers and a team

422
00:21:01,800 --> 00:21:05,000
Speaker 2: that's going to be very aggressive in their possession situations,

423
00:21:05,040 --> 00:21:07,520
Speaker 2: so that's going to give Looton chances to turn them

424
00:21:07,560 --> 00:21:10,000
Speaker 2: over high. And I know Bja mentioned this on our

425
00:21:10,040 --> 00:21:12,440
Speaker 2: group chat the other day, just how much Lowton was

426
00:21:12,480 --> 00:21:15,560
Speaker 2: able to turn over Burnley high and not create anything

427
00:21:15,560 --> 00:21:17,480
Speaker 2: out of it. That happened a lot. They ended up

428
00:21:17,520 --> 00:21:20,040
Speaker 2: with more shots, more expected goals, more penalty box touches,

429
00:21:20,080 --> 00:21:22,920
Speaker 2: like they outplayed Burnley in that match at home. Now

430
00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:25,200
Speaker 2: we get Spurs and like a really bad spot early

431
00:21:25,280 --> 00:21:29,040
Speaker 2: kick off, their biggest win of the season, all the

432
00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 2: stuff that's been going on, You're at the peak of

433
00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:33,199
Speaker 2: the value on Tottenham right now, I think for the

434
00:21:33,240 --> 00:21:36,480
Speaker 2: season really, because their defense has gotten away with mistakes

435
00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:40,200
Speaker 2: and their attack has scored a bunch of late goals.

436
00:21:40,280 --> 00:21:42,680
Speaker 2: So everybody, you know, the vibes are amazing right now.

437
00:21:43,240 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go to my tried and true louton

438
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:47,879
Speaker 2: team toll over first half plus one seventy five. I

439
00:21:47,880 --> 00:21:50,240
Speaker 2: think they this is a potential sleep spot for Spurs

440
00:21:50,280 --> 00:21:52,720
Speaker 2: where they come out slow, they get packed into the game.

441
00:21:53,160 --> 00:21:54,679
Speaker 2: But I don't trust the defense enough to lay a

442
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,000
Speaker 2: goal in a quarter here. So I'm going to take

443
00:21:56,080 --> 00:21:59,440
Speaker 2: one point twenty five minus one fifteen on Luton as well.

444
00:21:59,560 --> 00:22:02,439
Speaker 2: I said get five this year on Lowton Town. This

445
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 2: is numero. You know. I'm going to bet them for

446
00:22:05,400 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 2: the first time all year, Loton Town. I'm also betting

447
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:10,840
Speaker 2: against Tottenham for the first time all year. It's like

448
00:22:11,640 --> 00:22:12,280
Speaker 2: under so.

449
00:22:12,400 --> 00:22:17,360
Speaker 1: It's like challenges in NFL or hockey. If you win

450
00:22:17,440 --> 00:22:20,000
Speaker 1: the bet, you get it back and you can make

451
00:22:20,040 --> 00:22:22,199
Speaker 1: five more for the rest of the year.

452
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:23,439
Speaker 3: Bottle like that.

453
00:22:23,480 --> 00:22:27,080
Speaker 2: But I think I like that losing just this much

454
00:22:27,080 --> 00:22:29,120
Speaker 2: on looton this year and no more.

455
00:22:29,080 --> 00:22:31,640
Speaker 1: So, I think actually, and the more and more we're

456
00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:34,360
Speaker 1: talking through this is why this podcast is so helpful,

457
00:22:34,440 --> 00:22:36,920
Speaker 1: not just for the listeners but for me as well as. Uh,

458
00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:38,600
Speaker 1: the more and more we're talking about this, the more

459
00:22:38,640 --> 00:22:42,000
Speaker 1: and more I'm I'm I'm liking the hatters here. B

460
00:22:42,200 --> 00:22:44,120
Speaker 1: J your thoughts.

461
00:22:44,440 --> 00:22:47,040
Speaker 3: Yeah, just for the record, I have unlimited bets on

462
00:22:47,080 --> 00:22:49,919
Speaker 3: Lootontown this season. I'm not loving myself to five. But

463
00:22:50,040 --> 00:22:52,880
Speaker 3: anthonythan Nell on the head that louton Town. What they

464
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:55,680
Speaker 3: like to do is they do like to press high.

465
00:22:55,800 --> 00:22:58,600
Speaker 3: They will keep quite a few guys back and they're

466
00:22:58,600 --> 00:23:02,200
Speaker 3: actually a decent transitional fence. But right now in the

467
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:04,760
Speaker 3: Premier League they have forced the fifth most high turnovers

468
00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:07,120
Speaker 3: and they are top seven and shots off of those

469
00:23:07,160 --> 00:23:09,120
Speaker 3: high turnovers, and if you just watch their matches, it's

470
00:23:09,200 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 3: very clear, you know, they want to get the ball

471
00:23:10,880 --> 00:23:13,640
Speaker 3: wide and swinging crosses. They even against Burnley they had

472
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,240
Speaker 3: a number of chances of crosses that the guys just

473
00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 3: couldn't get on the end of. So obviously it doesn't

474
00:23:17,960 --> 00:23:20,199
Speaker 3: count towards the next year or anything like that. So

475
00:23:21,200 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 3: they can definitely turn Tottenham over over high here. And

476
00:23:25,920 --> 00:23:29,000
Speaker 3: I mean, listen, you know Udogi's been a great defender

477
00:23:29,119 --> 00:23:32,760
Speaker 3: in wide areas poros not not great, so you know,

478
00:23:32,800 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 3: Lowtontown could get some some chances up the right wing here.

479
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 3: They've I mean, listen, they've been They've won the expected

480
00:23:39,920 --> 00:23:44,560
Speaker 3: goals battle in three of their last four matches with

481
00:23:44,600 --> 00:23:48,159
Speaker 3: the one they lost sorry Michaels to Everton. But you know,

482
00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:52,960
Speaker 3: they played west Ham evenly, They played Fulham incredibly evenly

483
00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:56,560
Speaker 3: at Craven Cottage and then, like we just mentioned, they

484
00:23:56,560 --> 00:23:59,080
Speaker 3: out played Burnley at home on Tuesday, So now you're

485
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,919
Speaker 3: getting them at home and you're getting essentially you know,

486
00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 3: it's a goal on quarter right now, if you want

487
00:24:03,320 --> 00:24:05,359
Speaker 3: to pay a little more, Juice's goal and a half

488
00:24:05,800 --> 00:24:08,120
Speaker 3: against like Anthony said, Tottenham at the peak of their

489
00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:11,520
Speaker 3: market values. So yeah, this is definitely another Luton Town spot.

490
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,120
Speaker 3: I keep betting on this team like a week in

491
00:24:13,119 --> 00:24:16,600
Speaker 3: and week out. It hasn't been very profitable yet, but

492
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:20,600
Speaker 3: I do think that their tactical plan, even though they

493
00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:23,480
Speaker 3: don't have a lot of talent, is starting to work

494
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:27,800
Speaker 3: here in the Premier League. I think this style of

495
00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:31,199
Speaker 3: them pressing high, not with reckless abandonment like they did

496
00:24:31,200 --> 00:24:33,800
Speaker 3: in the Championship, but with a little bit more structure

497
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:38,719
Speaker 3: can help them to stay up, which honestly, the battle

498
00:24:38,760 --> 00:24:41,480
Speaker 3: for top promoted team is fascinating right now because it

499
00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:43,040
Speaker 3: is completely up for grabs.

500
00:24:44,359 --> 00:24:46,359
Speaker 2: Here's the thing, right and we talk about this. Brighton

501
00:24:46,880 --> 00:24:50,040
Speaker 2: closed minus one and a half on opening day at

502
00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:53,600
Speaker 2: home against Luton. Now you're getting I mean it's ticked

503
00:24:53,640 --> 00:24:55,159
Speaker 2: up a little bit. You're getting almost one and a

504
00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:57,920
Speaker 2: half with Looton at home against Spurs. I mean just

505
00:24:57,960 --> 00:24:59,720
Speaker 2: talk about how Brighton and Spurs are kind of similar

506
00:24:59,760 --> 00:25:04,199
Speaker 2: pairs parallel in the market here. So the market has

507
00:25:04,240 --> 00:25:06,600
Speaker 2: taken down this Lootont team, and I'm boosted Tottenham more

508
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:07,640
Speaker 2: than more than I would have.

509
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,320
Speaker 3: Certainly, And I do think you'll see this closer on

510
00:25:10,359 --> 00:25:13,040
Speaker 3: mine's two hundred. By the time we get there, we'll

511
00:25:13,040 --> 00:25:15,000
Speaker 3: see it. Maybe tot of money comes in, and maybe

512
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:18,199
Speaker 3: I'll be wrong, but I think a lot of smart

513
00:25:18,200 --> 00:25:20,040
Speaker 3: money will come in and say, Okay, this is a

514
00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:21,320
Speaker 3: little too high for Tottenham.

515
00:25:22,160 --> 00:25:24,960
Speaker 1: Burnley and Chelsea. Now Burnley at home a four to

516
00:25:24,960 --> 00:25:28,160
Speaker 1: one underdog after their win on Tuesday against Luton Town,

517
00:25:28,520 --> 00:25:31,640
Speaker 1: Chelsea coming off a two nil win on Monday against Fulham.

518
00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,000
Speaker 1: It was right. We were right about the word. I

519
00:25:34,040 --> 00:25:37,160
Speaker 1: was right about that one, and we're all right. Everybody

520
00:25:37,240 --> 00:25:39,359
Speaker 1: was right under baby under.

521
00:25:40,440 --> 00:25:41,960
Speaker 3: Chelsea was great day.

522
00:25:42,119 --> 00:25:45,720
Speaker 2: Yeah, really big save. I'll be honest.

523
00:25:45,720 --> 00:25:47,240
Speaker 3: After the second goal, I turned off my TV. I

524
00:25:47,280 --> 00:25:49,720
Speaker 3: was like, I can't watch this whatever it was coming.

525
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 3: And then I checked in like the seventy fifth minute

526
00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:53,160
Speaker 3: and I was like, oh, we're still live, right, Let's

527
00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:54,760
Speaker 3: turn this back on. And he did make that huge

528
00:25:54,760 --> 00:25:56,119
Speaker 3: save on lugit right before the end.

529
00:25:56,480 --> 00:25:59,119
Speaker 1: Well, those Blues are odds on minus one forty three

530
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:01,720
Speaker 1: on the and the draw is three to one. I'm

531
00:26:01,760 --> 00:26:03,879
Speaker 1: on an island here. I like Burnley. I think that

532
00:26:04,320 --> 00:26:06,000
Speaker 1: you're gonna be able to pick your spots against this

533
00:26:06,080 --> 00:26:09,880
Speaker 1: Chelsea team that kind of feels the same as as United.

534
00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:13,920
Speaker 1: The way Burnley plays. It's all this you know, high

535
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,960
Speaker 1: event back and forth suicide ball that Vincent company wants

536
00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,840
Speaker 1: a newly promoted team to play, and as bj has

537
00:26:20,880 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 1: talked about, probably not the best strategy if you're just

538
00:26:23,560 --> 00:26:25,879
Speaker 1: trying to stay up and consolidate your spot in the

539
00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,800
Speaker 1: Premier League, but it makes it dangerous, especially against a

540
00:26:28,800 --> 00:26:30,639
Speaker 1: team that really struggles in front of goal. So I

541
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 1: think Burnley's worth a shot here, Anthony, any thoughts here

542
00:26:33,800 --> 00:26:36,160
Speaker 1: before we move on? I know you guys are past.

543
00:26:37,000 --> 00:26:38,280
Speaker 2: I mean, how much of a gap do you have

544
00:26:38,359 --> 00:26:39,680
Speaker 2: between Fulham and Burnley.

545
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:40,640
Speaker 1: At this point right now?

546
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:42,879
Speaker 2: Because we just saw the similar spot here right like Fulham.

547
00:26:42,960 --> 00:26:45,159
Speaker 2: So Chelsea plays Fulham plus one oh five plus one

548
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:47,000
Speaker 2: ten that closed as high as one to twenty at

549
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 2: some books with Jackson out. I mean, I like Nico Jackson.

550
00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:54,000
Speaker 2: I't think he's worth that much, so you know, it's

551
00:26:54,040 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 2: a big boost here that I don't really agree with.

552
00:26:57,000 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 2: So yeah, it would be Burnley or nothing for me

553
00:26:58,600 --> 00:27:02,199
Speaker 2: for sure. I mean there's no data that gets me

554
00:27:02,240 --> 00:27:04,679
Speaker 2: to Chelsea anywhere near minus one forty five. The thing is,

555
00:27:04,720 --> 00:27:08,480
Speaker 2: and we have talked about finishing regression forever on this

556
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:12,399
Speaker 2: team and it's true, but they just haven't created that

557
00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:14,199
Speaker 2: many chances. I mean, they've created a good number of

558
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:17,040
Speaker 2: big chances they've missed, but they haven't created This isn't

559
00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:20,840
Speaker 2: like a Liverpool Spurs Brighton City level attack. This is

560
00:27:20,880 --> 00:27:23,680
Speaker 2: clearly still worse than that. That needs to be considered,

561
00:27:24,240 --> 00:27:25,959
Speaker 2: you know when you look at this price, because we

562
00:27:25,960 --> 00:27:28,000
Speaker 2: were not that long ago where Tottenham was minus one

563
00:27:28,080 --> 00:27:31,280
Speaker 2: fifteen at Burnley, so for Chelsea to be considerably higher

564
00:27:31,280 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 2: than that, it is a little crazy to me.

565
00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:39,679
Speaker 3: So Yeahley fun stat though, Manchester City and Chelsea are

566
00:27:39,720 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 3: the only two teams in the Premier League to win

567
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 3: the XG battle in every single one of their matches

568
00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:47,320
Speaker 3: this season. And I would not have told you that

569
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 3: would be that Chelsea was going to be the team

570
00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:50,760
Speaker 3: alongside City doing that.

571
00:27:50,760 --> 00:27:53,720
Speaker 2: But Chelsea had It was like a tie with Liverpool,

572
00:27:53,760 --> 00:27:55,120
Speaker 2: right there was a even game.

573
00:27:55,200 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, all right on to Everdon. I'm genuinely just

574
00:28:01,960 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 1: sick of them minus one ten. They're so good though,

575
00:28:04,880 --> 00:28:06,440
Speaker 1: Michael against Bournemouth.

576
00:28:06,040 --> 00:28:07,560
Speaker 2: Should have laid the one last weekend.

577
00:28:09,359 --> 00:28:12,919
Speaker 1: I knew it. I'm so mad at you guys for

578
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:17,320
Speaker 1: being confident in Everdent and keeping me off of I'm

579
00:28:17,359 --> 00:28:20,560
Speaker 1: confident here, I know you are, and it's sickening stuff.

580
00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:22,199
Speaker 2: This is time. It's it's put up a shut up

581
00:28:22,200 --> 00:28:23,200
Speaker 2: time for me in Bournemouth.

582
00:28:23,280 --> 00:28:26,880
Speaker 1: Yep, yeah, I'm talking about to say about your iola.

583
00:28:27,520 --> 00:28:31,560
Speaker 2: Okay, so we're talking about this. Uses no more excuses anymore.

584
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:33,760
Speaker 2: This is the time. It's put up a shut up time.

585
00:28:33,880 --> 00:28:36,080
Speaker 2: Although now he gets a very good Everton team who's

586
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:40,360
Speaker 2: mid table, tough way match it is. It is Edton's

587
00:28:40,400 --> 00:28:44,360
Speaker 2: finishing regression is is sure to come here because Bourne

588
00:28:44,360 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 2: miss running like so bad.

589
00:28:48,840 --> 00:28:52,120
Speaker 1: Plus two eighty on the Cherry's low at Curtison Park,

590
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:56,160
Speaker 1: the draws plus two seventy five. I think every Evert

591
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,240
Speaker 1: in total is gonna end up being low. That's the

592
00:28:58,240 --> 00:29:02,640
Speaker 1: way that they play and shouldn't be. Yeah, it shouldn't be.

593
00:29:04,480 --> 00:29:09,160
Speaker 1: I'm sitting it out, uh I think that there's two

594
00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:12,440
Speaker 1: teams who are just begging for the international break to come.

595
00:29:13,880 --> 00:29:15,959
Speaker 1: One of them is Bournon myth and the other is

596
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:22,000
Speaker 1: Manchester United. And uh I what did Everdtten close? What

597
00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,800
Speaker 1: minus one sixty five last week against Lutontown minus one

598
00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:29,360
Speaker 1: ten now against warrenmth who are I think considerably better

599
00:29:29,400 --> 00:29:33,520
Speaker 1: than Pluton. But still it's a little a little scary here,

600
00:29:33,560 --> 00:29:36,360
Speaker 1: BJ So you can you can, you can talk to

601
00:29:36,400 --> 00:29:37,640
Speaker 1: all the people.

602
00:29:37,360 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 3: And yeah, both Everton minus one five and over two

603
00:29:41,640 --> 00:29:44,280
Speaker 3: and a half best price in minus one eighteen, which

604
00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:47,480
Speaker 3: is that bet three sixty five. I mean what Sean

605
00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:50,560
Speaker 3: Dyes has got cooking up here. I'm loving it what

606
00:29:50,640 --> 00:29:53,000
Speaker 3: he's doing with with Decore, playing him as like a

607
00:29:53,040 --> 00:29:57,600
Speaker 3: box invading, like kind of striker midfielder type guy. He's

608
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:01,600
Speaker 3: like doing what Ancelotti's doing with Bellingham over at Real Madrid,

609
00:30:01,640 --> 00:30:05,560
Speaker 3: like Decrey has been awesome. And what he also does

610
00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 3: is he provides an extra guy in the middle of

611
00:30:07,880 --> 00:30:10,840
Speaker 3: the pitch, so now it makes it harder for teams

612
00:30:10,880 --> 00:30:13,040
Speaker 3: to play through Everton's press through the middle of the pitch,

613
00:30:13,360 --> 00:30:15,160
Speaker 3: and when they want to send long balls up there,

614
00:30:15,200 --> 00:30:17,120
Speaker 3: they have three guys in and around the middle to

615
00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:19,520
Speaker 3: win them and get the ball moving forward, like that's

616
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,280
Speaker 3: what Dych wants to do. And then once obviously you

617
00:30:22,360 --> 00:30:24,000
Speaker 3: put that many guys in the middle of the pitch,

618
00:30:24,240 --> 00:30:26,640
Speaker 3: it forces the defense in and you create more space

619
00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:29,040
Speaker 3: out wide and Everton's obviously thrown in a ton of

620
00:30:29,080 --> 00:30:31,960
Speaker 3: crosses the season third most completed in the Premier League.

621
00:30:31,960 --> 00:30:35,920
Speaker 3: But Bourne, myth, I mean, ere Iola, you're doing the

622
00:30:35,920 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 3: same thing the company is doing right now. You are

623
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:41,560
Speaker 3: pressing with too much reckless abandonment and it's just not working.

624
00:30:41,920 --> 00:30:44,800
Speaker 3: And it's not like it's a man demand marking press

625
00:30:44,840 --> 00:30:46,000
Speaker 3: that it's like, you know, a lot of teams have

626
00:30:46,120 --> 00:30:49,920
Speaker 3: done pretty simply and effectively. It's just like very complex

627
00:30:50,360 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 3: hybrid pressing system that often leaves Philip Billing in the

628
00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:56,200
Speaker 3: middle of the pitch trying to defend two guys. So

629
00:30:56,240 --> 00:30:58,800
Speaker 3: when you face teams that can actually build out of

630
00:30:58,800 --> 00:31:01,200
Speaker 3: the back, they create overloads there and they have just

631
00:31:01,280 --> 00:31:04,520
Speaker 3: ripped them apart. And once they beat that first line

632
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:06,600
Speaker 3: of the press, because people will point and say, well

633
00:31:06,640 --> 00:31:08,920
Speaker 3: Bournemouth is seventh and pass per defensive action, Well they've

634
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 3: forced the eighth most tight turnovers. Well they're fourteenth and

635
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:15,840
Speaker 3: build up completion percentage allowed. They're dead last in final

636
00:31:15,880 --> 00:31:18,800
Speaker 3: third to box entry conversion rate forty five percent of

637
00:31:18,840 --> 00:31:20,840
Speaker 3: the time when teams get into the final third, they're

638
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:24,920
Speaker 3: getting in Bornemous box. That is incredibly concerning. So for

639
00:31:24,960 --> 00:31:28,240
Speaker 3: an Everton team that has now created the most big

640
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,880
Speaker 3: scoring chances in the Premier League after putting up four

641
00:31:31,000 --> 00:31:35,880
Speaker 3: against Loughtontown, they should just live in Bornemouth's final third

642
00:31:35,920 --> 00:31:37,800
Speaker 3: here and really get inside the box and create a

643
00:31:37,800 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 3: ton of chances. So, like, I projected three point four

644
00:31:40,640 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 3: goals for this match and I was like, wow, I'm

645
00:31:42,440 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 3: way higher than the market, and then I kind of

646
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:45,560
Speaker 3: looked into this, I'm like, I don't really know if

647
00:31:45,600 --> 00:31:48,000
Speaker 3: I am because bornem is now allowing close to two

648
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,959
Speaker 3: non penalty expected goals per ninety like, and it doesn't

649
00:31:51,040 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 3: look like there's much hope that's going to get much better.

650
00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:57,280
Speaker 3: So I think Everton's quite low to protected everything closer

651
00:31:57,280 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 3: to minus one fifty. So yeah, and even if you

652
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:02,440
Speaker 3: want to go Everton teams total too, if you just

653
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:06,160
Speaker 3: want to same game parlay all of this, Like, I

654
00:32:06,240 --> 00:32:08,479
Speaker 3: think this is one of those instances where you can

655
00:32:09,120 --> 00:32:12,120
Speaker 3: get a really really good price on an Everton just

656
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:15,000
Speaker 3: absolutely blowout win Michael, They're gonna blow them out.

657
00:32:15,320 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 1: I don't think so, No me neither.

658
00:32:19,440 --> 00:32:21,960
Speaker 2: It's just screams like two two or one to one

659
00:32:21,960 --> 00:32:23,440
Speaker 2: because I bet they over and it. They couldn't get

660
00:32:23,440 --> 00:32:26,160
Speaker 2: the third goal across. But yeah, I mean both of

661
00:32:26,160 --> 00:32:29,200
Speaker 2: these teams want to disrupt, they want to turn over high.

662
00:32:29,280 --> 00:32:30,880
Speaker 2: Neither of these teams are good at building out from

663
00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:33,560
Speaker 2: the back. I think it sets up decently well for

664
00:32:34,560 --> 00:32:36,400
Speaker 2: a bunch of high turnovers and a bunch of quick

665
00:32:36,400 --> 00:32:38,520
Speaker 2: strike chances at both ends of the pitch. You mentioned it.

666
00:32:38,560 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 2: I mean Everton might even talk about the finishing imgression

667
00:32:42,240 --> 00:32:44,280
Speaker 2: Bourne myth. I don't think. I mean, their defensive numbers

668
00:32:44,280 --> 00:32:46,200
Speaker 2: are really bad, but they haven't played any bad teams.

669
00:32:46,200 --> 00:32:48,240
Speaker 2: They've only played the best teams in the league. So

670
00:32:48,400 --> 00:32:52,560
Speaker 2: again it's like, what do they look like. I'm still

671
00:32:52,560 --> 00:32:55,160
Speaker 2: not totally sure how this plays as they go further

672
00:32:55,200 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 2: down the table and play worst teams. So I'm really

673
00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:01,560
Speaker 2: intrigued by it. I think that this total is low

674
00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 2: for sure. And I said this before Brentford and Everton,

675
00:33:03,680 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 2: and I was like, oh, like diisce, could you know

676
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:08,280
Speaker 2: close up shop a little bit reality is that like

677
00:33:08,920 --> 00:33:10,840
Speaker 2: the way Everton is playing right now, this market two

678
00:33:10,840 --> 00:33:13,520
Speaker 2: and a half we've keep continually seeing is just way

679
00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:17,200
Speaker 2: too low. So I'm on the over the side is

680
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,160
Speaker 2: right to me. I mean, I think Everton's a little better.

681
00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:21,520
Speaker 2: They're at home, so all right.

682
00:33:22,040 --> 00:33:26,160
Speaker 1: They don't they don't win at home anymore. They don't, yeah,

683
00:33:26,200 --> 00:33:28,840
Speaker 1: I mean they don't win really anymore. Anyways.

684
00:33:29,000 --> 00:33:30,720
Speaker 2: Sometimes you kick the ball and it doesn't go into

685
00:33:30,720 --> 00:33:31,040
Speaker 2: the net.

686
00:33:33,800 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 1: Manchester United, now I just want to fifty at home

687
00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:40,840
Speaker 1: hosting Brentford plus three seventy five at Bet three sixty

688
00:33:40,880 --> 00:33:45,040
Speaker 1: five the draw is plus three twenty. We've got on

689
00:33:45,200 --> 00:33:49,600
Speaker 1: pretty long here already. I think some teams are just

690
00:33:49,680 --> 00:33:54,040
Speaker 1: so simple to handicap, and you just you want to

691
00:33:54,920 --> 00:33:58,040
Speaker 1: circle those teams and stick to the strategy. And United

692
00:33:58,200 --> 00:34:01,680
Speaker 1: is that team right now in the Premiere League. They

693
00:34:01,720 --> 00:34:04,520
Speaker 1: could be dangerous as a big underdog, like when they're

694
00:34:04,520 --> 00:34:08,799
Speaker 1: playing City or Arsenal or Newcastle like they could they

695
00:34:08,840 --> 00:34:12,239
Speaker 1: could be dangerous. They've still got all world talent. They

696
00:34:12,239 --> 00:34:15,839
Speaker 1: can absolutely disrupt a team like that, But you just

697
00:34:15,880 --> 00:34:18,839
Speaker 1: don't want to light wood with them at all. Right now,

698
00:34:19,719 --> 00:34:22,000
Speaker 1: this team is begging for the International break. They just

699
00:34:22,000 --> 00:34:25,359
Speaker 1: lost a Galatasa ride. They lost a Crystal Palace. Those

700
00:34:25,400 --> 00:34:29,719
Speaker 1: were two five to one, and then Palace was around

701
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:33,279
Speaker 1: five to one. Galatasta ride was around six to one.

702
00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:36,520
Speaker 1: They were at home. Not only does this match not

703
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:38,760
Speaker 1: set up well for them, I don't think from stylistically,

704
00:34:39,719 --> 00:34:44,120
Speaker 1: even though Brentford has not been great results wise this season,

705
00:34:45,600 --> 00:34:49,359
Speaker 1: Old Trafford could just turn into an absolute nightmare. The

706
00:34:49,360 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 1: Theater of Dreams could turn into a nightmare on Saturday

707
00:34:52,480 --> 00:34:55,320
Speaker 1: if this doesn't go well for the first twenty minutes.

708
00:34:55,840 --> 00:35:00,400
Speaker 1: So I think there's a lot of science to to

709
00:35:00,440 --> 00:35:03,880
Speaker 1: the bees here, who I think deserve a little bit

710
00:35:03,920 --> 00:35:08,480
Speaker 1: more credit than maybe they're placing to the table will suggest.

711
00:35:08,640 --> 00:35:13,160
Speaker 1: So give me Brentford do it again. They've got United's

712
00:35:13,200 --> 00:35:16,440
Speaker 1: number it teams, so I'll take it. BJ I'm on

713
00:35:16,480 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: the money line.

714
00:35:17,040 --> 00:35:19,240
Speaker 3: We've already you know, talked about United so many times

715
00:35:19,239 --> 00:35:21,799
Speaker 3: and all their problems. But let's just identify one thing

716
00:35:22,480 --> 00:35:25,439
Speaker 3: that happened against Galatast right, that's really going to cause

717
00:35:25,480 --> 00:35:28,880
Speaker 3: probably the Brentford's gon't cause problems here. It's what you know,

718
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:34,440
Speaker 3: the tactical people like to call vertical compactness. Essentially, galatast

719
00:35:34,560 --> 00:35:37,960
Speaker 3: Ride was able to just play so many long balls

720
00:35:38,000 --> 00:35:41,279
Speaker 3: with just acres of space where they could just receive it,

721
00:35:41,320 --> 00:35:43,960
Speaker 3: and there was really no United player within the vicinity

722
00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:47,320
Speaker 3: to close them down. If we know one thing about Brentford,

723
00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:50,400
Speaker 3: they love long balls and they love vertical They love

724
00:35:50,440 --> 00:35:53,560
Speaker 3: to play the ball vertically. United is allowing a fifty

725
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:56,640
Speaker 3: seven pass completion rate on long balls this season. That's

726
00:35:56,680 --> 00:35:59,560
Speaker 3: fifth worst in the Premier League. So the Bees are

727
00:35:59,600 --> 00:36:01,239
Speaker 3: just gonna I had a ton of long balls up there,

728
00:36:01,239 --> 00:36:03,840
Speaker 3: a bunch of vertical passes, and with all the injuries

729
00:36:03,840 --> 00:36:06,680
Speaker 3: on the back line, there's just not a lot of

730
00:36:06,719 --> 00:36:12,400
Speaker 3: cohesion and communication going on between Linda Lolof with Vran Casamiro.

731
00:36:12,880 --> 00:36:14,680
Speaker 3: I mean, he's starting to look cooked right now, like

732
00:36:14,760 --> 00:36:16,879
Speaker 3: he really has been off his game quite a bit.

733
00:36:17,000 --> 00:36:21,560
Speaker 3: So if he's off his game, United really doesn't have

734
00:36:21,600 --> 00:36:23,839
Speaker 3: anybody else in the middle of the pitch and they

735
00:36:23,880 --> 00:36:26,600
Speaker 3: probably shouldn't be playing Amrabad at left back. But also

736
00:36:26,760 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 3: like who else are they going to play there? Like

737
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:31,200
Speaker 3: they literally don't have any options, So this is yeah,

738
00:36:31,239 --> 00:36:33,200
Speaker 3: this is a perfect spot here for Brentford. I know

739
00:36:33,200 --> 00:36:36,000
Speaker 3: they've had Brentford's had a lot of injuries to keep players,

740
00:36:36,120 --> 00:36:39,040
Speaker 3: but Buemo is still there, Wees is still up top,

741
00:36:39,800 --> 00:36:43,120
Speaker 3: and I mean it sets up perfectly for them to

742
00:36:43,200 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 3: do exactly what Galla tass Ride did to Manchester United.

743
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 3: So Brentford plus a half at plus one twenty five for.

744
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:52,000
Speaker 2: Me, I mean, who's fifty five with United?

745
00:36:52,239 --> 00:36:52,680
Speaker 3: I don't know.

746
00:36:52,880 --> 00:36:55,799
Speaker 2: I'm calling me, text me DM, do you what do.

747
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:56,920
Speaker 3: You think the closes here?

748
00:36:56,960 --> 00:37:03,560
Speaker 2: Anthony market has had consistent respect for United. They galatasar

749
00:37:03,800 --> 00:37:08,200
Speaker 2: did not move a muscle. The Palace line stayed exactly

750
00:37:08,239 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 2: the same, the Burnley line. There has been very little

751
00:37:10,040 --> 00:37:13,439
Speaker 2: market movement on man United despite these this run of form.

752
00:37:13,480 --> 00:37:15,919
Speaker 2: And look there's a couple there's two key things. One

753
00:37:16,600 --> 00:37:19,640
Speaker 2: you mentioned a BJ the long balls, losing the second

754
00:37:19,640 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 2: ball off of it. It's like a classic, like something's

755
00:37:22,560 --> 00:37:25,600
Speaker 2: off effort wise, the wearing down in the second half

756
00:37:25,600 --> 00:37:27,240
Speaker 2: of games has been a problem. That was clearly evident

757
00:37:27,280 --> 00:37:31,680
Speaker 2: against Galatastro. I thought and amaba Ad a left back.

758
00:37:31,680 --> 00:37:33,680
Speaker 2: If you saw the Cardi winner, he was not a

759
00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:35,279
Speaker 2: left back. He's not used to having to keep a

760
00:37:35,320 --> 00:37:37,759
Speaker 2: line and the reality of that is that he was

761
00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:40,200
Speaker 2: given like ten extra yards to a Guardia and the

762
00:37:40,200 --> 00:37:44,279
Speaker 2: third goal was hilarious Casamiro tracking back and committing a

763
00:37:44,320 --> 00:37:48,000
Speaker 2: dumb foul whatever. But United have conceded so many goals

764
00:37:48,000 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 2: this year because of the third man run at the

765
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:56,040
Speaker 2: top of the box, whether it's Casamiro or mcdomminay when

766
00:37:56,040 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 2: he played there, they have not tracked that late run

767
00:37:57,920 --> 00:37:59,719
Speaker 2: into the box. Brighton scored a bunch of goals off

768
00:37:59,719 --> 00:38:01,799
Speaker 2: of it, Spurs got a goal from it with pop

769
00:38:01,880 --> 00:38:04,480
Speaker 2: Sar making that late run. Like they have conceded all

770
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:06,960
Speaker 2: these chances from this, and what does Brentford do a

771
00:38:06,960 --> 00:38:09,279
Speaker 2: lot of It's okay, we're gonna have a two man

772
00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:13,160
Speaker 2: attack of Wisa and Waimu and then somebody makes that

773
00:38:13,200 --> 00:38:14,719
Speaker 2: third run and to the edge of the penalty area.

774
00:38:14,800 --> 00:38:16,160
Speaker 2: They do that a lot. It's a lot of what

775
00:38:16,200 --> 00:38:18,359
Speaker 2: they do because they're not going to commit a lot

776
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:21,719
Speaker 2: of numbers forward. So Hoylan looked good. I think he

777
00:38:21,960 --> 00:38:24,280
Speaker 2: played really well against Caletaser. I think that's an encouraging

778
00:38:24,320 --> 00:38:27,279
Speaker 2: sign long term because at this point, like in the

779
00:38:27,360 --> 00:38:32,239
Speaker 2: medium to short term, they're disaster. So I looked at

780
00:38:32,280 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 2: the underdog results and the best bets and the number

781
00:38:34,520 --> 00:38:36,319
Speaker 2: of times we've made money faiting this team has been

782
00:38:36,400 --> 00:38:37,160
Speaker 2: quite fun thus far.

783
00:38:38,080 --> 00:38:40,520
Speaker 1: Yeah, well, maybe we'll recap that when we get back

784
00:38:40,520 --> 00:38:44,200
Speaker 1: from the international break. The next match we'll talk about

785
00:38:44,280 --> 00:38:49,080
Speaker 1: is Fulham and Sheffield United. The Cottagers their odds on

786
00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:53,279
Speaker 1: here there minus one sixty three. I believe they are

787
00:38:54,320 --> 00:38:58,000
Speaker 1: the biggest favorite besides Spurs on the board. At the moment,

788
00:39:00,000 --> 00:39:02,640
Speaker 1: Sheffield United traveling is at five to one and the

789
00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:07,920
Speaker 1: draw is plus two eighty. No, don't trust Fulham, It

790
00:39:08,000 --> 00:39:11,240
Speaker 1: just Rice at all. So I'm going to be backing

791
00:39:11,440 --> 00:39:15,840
Speaker 1: the Blades once again. It went swimmingly so far this season.

792
00:39:16,160 --> 00:39:18,759
Speaker 1: Every time we bet them, I think, I think on

793
00:39:18,840 --> 00:39:22,719
Speaker 1: aggregate when I bet Sheffield United, I'm maybe like a

794
00:39:22,760 --> 00:39:26,560
Speaker 1: goal difference of minus twelve. So let's see if I

795
00:39:26,600 --> 00:39:30,759
Speaker 1: can fight my way back to respectability here. I'm on

796
00:39:30,800 --> 00:39:33,759
Speaker 1: an island, Anthony. I I know you. I feel like

797
00:39:33,760 --> 00:39:37,200
Speaker 1: you're a little bit higher at Fulham than the rest

798
00:39:37,200 --> 00:39:39,000
Speaker 1: of us. You can you can't make a case for

799
00:39:39,400 --> 00:39:39,960
Speaker 1: the Blades.

800
00:39:42,239 --> 00:39:43,640
Speaker 2: I mean I can, but I also bet in the

801
00:39:43,719 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 2: last two weeks and got crushed, So I'm kind of

802
00:39:45,640 --> 00:39:48,520
Speaker 2: like I want to go back to the same well

803
00:39:48,560 --> 00:39:51,279
Speaker 2: on that. You know, the Fulham attack was not good

804
00:39:51,280 --> 00:39:53,879
Speaker 2: against Chelsea it was. It has not been good since

805
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:56,480
Speaker 2: Metrovitch's left. They have certainly missed it. And they keep

806
00:39:56,480 --> 00:39:59,279
Speaker 2: playing roll him and as the first hour, just like

807
00:39:59,320 --> 00:40:01,560
Speaker 2: donating an eye of an attack and then bringing on

808
00:40:01,640 --> 00:40:05,799
Speaker 2: Venetius who has actually been decent but has not been

809
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:08,440
Speaker 2: good enough. I mean he's been better though than Jimenez.

810
00:40:08,440 --> 00:40:12,320
Speaker 2: So it is interesting to me if they are continuing

811
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,680
Speaker 2: to play mister Raoul up top, and I wonder how

812
00:40:15,680 --> 00:40:20,040
Speaker 2: long that experiment will continue given the situation changing at

813
00:40:20,040 --> 00:40:20,440
Speaker 2: the moment.

814
00:40:20,719 --> 00:40:22,759
Speaker 1: So this is why I like Sheffield United.

815
00:40:22,760 --> 00:40:25,359
Speaker 2: They're not good even I won't bet them right, so

816
00:40:25,400 --> 00:40:26,520
Speaker 2: that's how you know that it's stay.

817
00:40:26,520 --> 00:40:31,160
Speaker 1: They're not good, but Fulham struggles to defend, they struggle

818
00:40:31,200 --> 00:40:35,839
Speaker 1: to create goal scoring. They're not very good either. So

819
00:40:35,920 --> 00:40:38,839
Speaker 1: I will take a shot on the blades at five

820
00:40:38,880 --> 00:40:42,000
Speaker 1: to one on the road on to Palace and Forrest.

821
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 3: Now.

822
00:40:42,239 --> 00:40:44,799
Speaker 1: I think for me, this was the match that I

823
00:40:44,800 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 1: could have done without. Easiest pass on the board, Palace

824
00:40:48,120 --> 00:40:51,000
Speaker 1: at home as a favorite at plus one twenty on

825
00:40:51,040 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 1: the three way line, Forest plus two forty the draws

826
00:40:53,080 --> 00:40:55,319
Speaker 1: plus two thirty BJ, you're the only one with a

827
00:40:55,360 --> 00:40:55,799
Speaker 1: play here.

828
00:40:56,280 --> 00:40:58,400
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like both team to score now minus one fifteen.

829
00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:00,600
Speaker 3: You know who's really going to score for Palace in

830
00:41:00,640 --> 00:41:04,279
Speaker 3: this match because Esa and Edward are both out and

831
00:41:04,280 --> 00:41:06,280
Speaker 3: obviously a Lisa has been out for the entire season.

832
00:41:06,320 --> 00:41:09,839
Speaker 3: So far, Edward and ESA have accounted for four point

833
00:41:09,920 --> 00:41:12,960
Speaker 3: nine of their eight point one expected goals and forty

834
00:41:13,040 --> 00:41:16,359
Speaker 3: seven of their one hundred shots this season, So there

835
00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:19,560
Speaker 3: goes basically your two only offensive threats. Good luck trying

836
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:23,040
Speaker 3: to break down a little block of like Nottingham Forest

837
00:41:23,080 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 3: has because they have the best final third to box

838
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:27,960
Speaker 3: entry conversion rates so far the season in the Premier League.

839
00:41:28,080 --> 00:41:30,520
Speaker 3: Doing a great job of being compact. And if you

840
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:32,200
Speaker 3: really want a good example of what this match is

841
00:41:32,239 --> 00:41:34,200
Speaker 3: going to look like, you know the Chrystal Palace full

842
00:41:34,280 --> 00:41:36,200
Speaker 3: of match that was basically a complete snoozer for all

843
00:41:36,280 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 3: ninety minutes. You know there was only less than one

844
00:41:39,120 --> 00:41:41,560
Speaker 3: total expected goal created between the two teams. I think

845
00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:44,160
Speaker 3: you'll see something like that because Nottingham Forest is only

846
00:41:44,160 --> 00:41:48,279
Speaker 3: good in transitional moments and the last few matches they've

847
00:41:48,280 --> 00:41:52,040
Speaker 3: played against good transitional defenses like City, Chelsea and Brentford

848
00:41:52,040 --> 00:41:55,600
Speaker 3: they've failed to create over one expected goals. So Krystal

849
00:41:55,600 --> 00:41:57,240
Speaker 3: Palace is not team it's going to press you high.

850
00:41:57,360 --> 00:42:00,600
Speaker 3: They're very good in transition defense. So I think a

851
00:42:00,640 --> 00:42:03,080
Speaker 3: big time snoozer here, and I think both teams to score.

852
00:42:03,200 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 3: No is too low. I want this one fifteen.

853
00:42:06,120 --> 00:42:11,480
Speaker 1: Okay onto west Ham and Newcastle now west Ham plus

854
00:42:11,520 --> 00:42:14,279
Speaker 1: two twenty as a home underdog. Newcastle plus one ten

855
00:42:15,200 --> 00:42:17,640
Speaker 1: after an impressive win against PSG in the Champions League

856
00:42:17,640 --> 00:42:21,160
Speaker 1: and the draw is plus to eighty. Anthony, what are

857
00:42:21,160 --> 00:42:21,719
Speaker 1: you thinking here?

858
00:42:22,480 --> 00:42:26,399
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know this is a tough one. I want

859
00:42:26,400 --> 00:42:28,919
Speaker 2: to bet the under but Newcastle's been screwing me left

860
00:42:28,920 --> 00:42:32,399
Speaker 2: and right with these unders, and you know they're getting

861
00:42:32,400 --> 00:42:36,359
Speaker 2: attacking production from their secondary guys. Callum Wilson is likely

862
00:42:36,400 --> 00:42:38,960
Speaker 2: out here. It looks like to me and I think

863
00:42:39,000 --> 00:42:42,359
Speaker 2: we underrated. You know how good he's been for them

864
00:42:42,400 --> 00:42:47,880
Speaker 2: this year. You know Howse said it's going to be

865
00:42:47,920 --> 00:42:50,400
Speaker 2: close for today, so like maybe he's back for the weekend.

866
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,719
Speaker 2: But all of a sudden, like Newcastle's attacking players are

867
00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:57,680
Speaker 2: kind of short. You know, they've actually gotten decent numbers

868
00:42:57,680 --> 00:43:02,600
Speaker 2: from Joe Linton, he's an injured situation. Wilson's doubtful. Gordon

869
00:43:02,760 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 2: is now suspended and Harvey Barnes is out, So where

870
00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:08,640
Speaker 2: are the goals going to come from against a west

871
00:43:08,640 --> 00:43:10,160
Speaker 2: Ham defense that's gonna let them have the ball and

872
00:43:10,200 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 2: there then to break them down. It's the same thing

873
00:43:12,000 --> 00:43:14,879
Speaker 2: we've talked about with Newcastle forever. PSG kind of played

874
00:43:14,880 --> 00:43:16,239
Speaker 2: in their hands a little bit. I didn't think they

875
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,080
Speaker 2: had that much success turning them over high as they did.

876
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,480
Speaker 2: I thought PSG would be more resistant to the press.

877
00:43:21,600 --> 00:43:27,160
Speaker 2: They were not. So I will look toward the under

878
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:31,000
Speaker 2: and build the courage. The market keeps steaming these unders too,

879
00:43:31,040 --> 00:43:34,480
Speaker 2: that's the thing. Like the Sheffield Newcastle under took a

880
00:43:34,520 --> 00:43:37,359
Speaker 2: ton of money before post. The PSG Newcastle under took

881
00:43:37,360 --> 00:43:38,839
Speaker 2: a ton of money before post. Like, I feel like

882
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:43,640
Speaker 2: these openers have been high on Newcastle and then they

883
00:43:43,680 --> 00:43:48,640
Speaker 2: just go way over. So I'm kind of got to

884
00:43:48,640 --> 00:43:50,359
Speaker 2: build the courage here. It's a build the courage player

885
00:43:50,360 --> 00:43:50,920
Speaker 2: of the week.

886
00:43:51,760 --> 00:43:53,480
Speaker 1: A build the courage player of the week for you

887
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 1: at beaj A real quick on west Ham and Newcastle.

888
00:43:56,680 --> 00:43:58,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think the price on Newcastle here is a

889
00:43:58,280 --> 00:43:59,960
Speaker 3: little too short. I think the west Ham Lott block

890
00:44:00,080 --> 00:44:02,879
Speaker 3: really isn't that effective. They're dead last and pretty much

891
00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 3: every single defensive category. They're overperforming their expected goals. I

892
00:44:06,640 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 3: know Newcastle doesn't have a lot of attackers available, but

893
00:44:09,600 --> 00:44:11,160
Speaker 3: once that first goal goes in, it's going to be

894
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:13,879
Speaker 3: about all she wrote. So this was minus one twenty five.

895
00:44:13,960 --> 00:44:15,799
Speaker 3: I have a little bit of a different conversation, but

896
00:44:15,840 --> 00:44:18,799
Speaker 3: it's sitting up plus one fifteen, so I think the

897
00:44:18,800 --> 00:44:20,680
Speaker 3: price is just far too low on a team that

898
00:44:21,080 --> 00:44:25,000
Speaker 3: should be considered inside the top four in terms of

899
00:44:25,080 --> 00:44:25,800
Speaker 3: market respect.

900
00:44:27,560 --> 00:44:31,800
Speaker 1: Okay, we'll wrap up the Premier League with Wolverhampton and Aston.

901
00:44:31,920 --> 00:44:34,680
Speaker 1: Villa head to the Black Country where Wolves are plus

902
00:44:34,719 --> 00:44:38,439
Speaker 1: two fifty underdog at home, Villa plus one ten on

903
00:44:38,480 --> 00:44:42,440
Speaker 1: the road and the draw is plus two forty. Anthony,

904
00:44:43,120 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 1: you know you're a big Liverpool guy. You're obviously a

905
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 1: Spurs fan. Have you not have you bet every Wolves

906
00:44:49,200 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 1: match this season?

907
00:44:51,200 --> 00:44:54,000
Speaker 2: I we need to pull it up. I'm pretty close though.

908
00:44:55,160 --> 00:44:57,880
Speaker 1: Because I would also suggest you might have bet like

909
00:44:59,480 --> 00:45:02,640
Speaker 1: an over only majority of Wolves matches last year too,

910
00:45:02,719 --> 00:45:07,960
Speaker 1: and you're the only one with a play here as

911
00:45:08,000 --> 00:45:08,319
Speaker 1: so yeah.

912
00:45:08,320 --> 00:45:11,400
Speaker 2: I faded them in Week two to Brighton, which they lost,

913
00:45:11,520 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 2: and then both teams to score against Everton. That was

914
00:45:15,280 --> 00:45:18,960
Speaker 2: a fun one. Bet against them against Palace, and then

915
00:45:19,320 --> 00:45:22,799
Speaker 2: I bet on them against Liverpool, passed Luton and did

916
00:45:22,800 --> 00:45:25,480
Speaker 2: not bet the City match even though I mentioned the

917
00:45:25,520 --> 00:45:29,080
Speaker 2: team total over on this show. So that's where we're

918
00:45:29,120 --> 00:45:31,840
Speaker 2: at now. So yeah, just about two thirds of their matches.

919
00:45:31,960 --> 00:45:33,600
Speaker 1: Yeah, and you should have bet them against United and

920
00:45:33,600 --> 00:45:35,640
Speaker 1: it would have been a crushing loss in the opener too,

921
00:45:35,719 --> 00:45:37,440
Speaker 1: So anyways, it covered.

922
00:45:37,880 --> 00:45:42,279
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, on, you go on, I go Yeah. The

923
00:45:42,320 --> 00:45:44,080
Speaker 2: attack has started to slow down a little bit, but

924
00:45:44,080 --> 00:45:46,759
Speaker 2: there's like no market respect here for this attack, at

925
00:45:46,840 --> 00:45:49,080
Speaker 2: least with this team total over in the first half.

926
00:45:49,120 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 2: So I'm going to continue to back that. I think

927
00:45:51,280 --> 00:45:52,759
Speaker 2: that they come out they punched teams in the mouth

928
00:45:52,760 --> 00:45:55,359
Speaker 2: really quick, and then eventually as the game settles in,

929
00:45:55,360 --> 00:45:57,279
Speaker 2: their attack has kind of fallen off because they don't

930
00:45:57,320 --> 00:46:02,279
Speaker 2: have enough goods. So you know what happens is that

931
00:46:02,360 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 2: those attacking moves break down. Villa, though, is playing a

932
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:07,440
Speaker 2: pretty open style and so all it takes is one

933
00:46:07,440 --> 00:46:09,640
Speaker 2: ball over the top against his Villa defense, which is

934
00:46:09,640 --> 00:46:12,160
Speaker 2: conceding a lot more expected goals than a normal Emery team.

935
00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:16,480
Speaker 2: It's a really interesting as he transitioned. You know, we've

936
00:46:16,520 --> 00:46:21,360
Speaker 2: seen Emory do this mostly in Spain with his successive Ereal. Defensively,

937
00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:24,560
Speaker 2: we have not seen them be as effective in the

938
00:46:24,600 --> 00:46:26,520
Speaker 2: prem and one of Arsenal's problems when he was there,

939
00:46:26,520 --> 00:46:29,799
Speaker 2: and one of Villa's problems has been, you know, the

940
00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:32,080
Speaker 2: balls over the top. So I think that you know,

941
00:46:32,080 --> 00:46:33,840
Speaker 2: you're seeing the limitations of what Villa has from a

942
00:46:33,840 --> 00:46:37,600
Speaker 2: personnel point defensively. Even in the win where they scored

943
00:46:37,640 --> 00:46:41,400
Speaker 2: six against Brighton, Brighton did create almost two x g

944
00:46:42,680 --> 00:46:47,200
Speaker 2: at Villa, So Villa's attack is still good and Diabi

945
00:46:47,280 --> 00:46:50,200
Speaker 2: and and they're getting a lot of auxiliary production from

946
00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:52,400
Speaker 2: around guys. It's not just Allie Watkins, which is what

947
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:57,240
Speaker 2: it was last year. But the Wolves attack is undervalued

948
00:46:57,239 --> 00:47:00,239
Speaker 2: here for me, so targeting them. If Villa drifted like

949
00:47:00,239 --> 00:47:02,840
Speaker 2: minus one ten, then I'd come back on Wolves plus

950
00:47:02,840 --> 00:47:04,239
Speaker 2: a half. But I'm not going to lay the minus

951
00:47:04,280 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 2: one thirty price won thirty five. It's a little too

952
00:47:06,960 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 2: high for me on Wolves plus a half, but I

953
00:47:09,280 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 2: do certainly lean that way as well.

954
00:47:11,880 --> 00:47:14,879
Speaker 1: Okay, that's the Premier League done and dusted. We'll talk

955
00:47:14,960 --> 00:47:17,600
Speaker 1: more about it in our Underdog segment and then best

956
00:47:17,640 --> 00:47:20,520
Speaker 1: Bets at the very end of the show. Now onto Bundesliga.

957
00:47:21,200 --> 00:47:24,440
Speaker 1: You two have placed here, Anthony, you can go first.

958
00:47:24,640 --> 00:47:26,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, glad Back got their first win of the season,

959
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:30,440
Speaker 2: and I think they're overvalued here against Mines. Has been

960
00:47:30,480 --> 00:47:33,759
Speaker 2: the worst team if you just bet them against the

961
00:47:33,800 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 2: spread this season, just like Asian handicap lines, they have

962
00:47:37,719 --> 00:47:40,480
Speaker 2: been the biggest underperformer in all of Europe's top five leagues,

963
00:47:40,520 --> 00:47:44,080
Speaker 2: just relative x G to XGA. They did get Ludovic

964
00:47:44,120 --> 00:47:47,959
Speaker 2: Ajork back against Osburg and he scored in that match,

965
00:47:48,000 --> 00:47:50,960
Speaker 2: and he makes their attack more formidable because without him

966
00:47:51,000 --> 00:47:56,400
Speaker 2: they were kind of offensively challenged. But Ajork his ability

967
00:47:56,400 --> 00:47:58,880
Speaker 2: to win balls and they player off him really well.

968
00:47:58,960 --> 00:48:01,400
Speaker 2: He's good in the air too. He's been good for

969
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:06,200
Speaker 2: them and improve their attack and this Glodbo defense. The

970
00:48:06,239 --> 00:48:08,400
Speaker 2: attack is starting to get healthier and they've they've found

971
00:48:08,400 --> 00:48:10,800
Speaker 2: some things out here, but the defense is really really

972
00:48:10,840 --> 00:48:14,040
Speaker 2: poor at Gladbach and Suani has not really changed that

973
00:48:14,560 --> 00:48:16,759
Speaker 2: since coming in this year in the personnel and what

974
00:48:16,800 --> 00:48:18,520
Speaker 2: they've lost has kind of not been made up for.

975
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 2: So with with Gladbach at home right around even money,

976
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:25,680
Speaker 2: I'm going to go against them with Minds plus half Bjay.

977
00:48:27,719 --> 00:48:31,520
Speaker 3: Yeah. If Minds has been the worst team. Then Cologne's

978
00:48:31,520 --> 00:48:35,040
Speaker 3: been the second worst team and I'm going to back

979
00:48:35,080 --> 00:48:38,040
Speaker 3: them against you know what seems like the best team

980
00:48:38,040 --> 00:48:42,239
Speaker 3: in the world now in Leverkusen. Really no data point

981
00:48:42,280 --> 00:48:44,879
Speaker 3: that I can point to hear that gives Cologne any

982
00:48:44,920 --> 00:48:47,200
Speaker 3: type advantages. But we are at the peak of the

983
00:48:47,200 --> 00:48:50,320
Speaker 3: market value with Leverkusen right now, who has pretty drastically

984
00:48:50,320 --> 00:48:53,560
Speaker 3: overformed their expected goals about nineteen goals about fourteen expected

985
00:48:53,600 --> 00:48:55,759
Speaker 3: so far. They got to go for a Thursday trip

986
00:48:55,800 --> 00:49:01,920
Speaker 3: to Norway in the Europa Conference League, so excuse me,

987
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:06,799
Speaker 3: the Europa League. So really just a simple projection as

988
00:49:06,840 --> 00:49:08,600
Speaker 3: a Colone team that was around and even expected goal

989
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:11,799
Speaker 3: differential last season just has not won a match yet

990
00:49:11,840 --> 00:49:16,279
Speaker 3: this season, just to pure overvalue in the market by Leverkusen. Here,

991
00:49:16,320 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 3: so Cologne plus one plus one and a half for.

992
00:49:18,520 --> 00:49:21,279
Speaker 1: Me La Liga BJ.

993
00:49:22,320 --> 00:49:25,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, Girona Cadiz over two and a half goals. Roona

994
00:49:26,000 --> 00:49:27,279
Speaker 3: was at the top of the table for a little

995
00:49:27,320 --> 00:49:30,280
Speaker 3: bit in La Liga there and they are just completely

996
00:49:30,320 --> 00:49:32,680
Speaker 3: scoring goals for very open style of play, a team

997
00:49:32,719 --> 00:49:35,000
Speaker 3: that likes to get up in your face, disrupt build

998
00:49:35,040 --> 00:49:37,640
Speaker 3: up play, very good at turning you over high Cadiz.

999
00:49:38,200 --> 00:49:39,840
Speaker 3: I mean, we know the story about them. I've been

1000
00:49:39,880 --> 00:49:42,759
Speaker 3: fading them quite a bit all season long. Hasn't gone

1001
00:49:42,880 --> 00:49:45,200
Speaker 3: very well. Worst defensive team in Spain last season. I

1002
00:49:45,280 --> 00:49:47,279
Speaker 3: played a little bit better this year. But I think

1003
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:50,080
Speaker 3: the total here is a little too low for Girona

1004
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:52,320
Speaker 3: offense that has been creating a lot of high scoring

1005
00:49:52,360 --> 00:49:55,800
Speaker 3: event type matches. So over two and a half Girona

1006
00:49:56,160 --> 00:49:57,160
Speaker 3: and Cadiz.

1007
00:49:58,200 --> 00:50:02,319
Speaker 1: Anthony, you got no surprise here trying to take on

1008
00:50:02,400 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 1: Diego SIMIONI had that work out for you this week.

1009
00:50:04,800 --> 00:50:08,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, look the fine art created over two and a

1010
00:50:08,000 --> 00:50:11,840
Speaker 2: half expected goal. They completely dominated the match and O

1011
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 2: Blacker is awesome. That's football, it happens sometimes. I look

1012
00:50:17,080 --> 00:50:19,799
Speaker 2: forward to the rematch into Kape in a couple couple

1013
00:50:19,840 --> 00:50:21,520
Speaker 2: of weeks. Here, I guess you get a little bit

1014
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:23,479
Speaker 2: of time. We got about a month and a half,

1015
00:50:23,520 --> 00:50:26,399
Speaker 2: so we got some time. Nord will be fully armed

1016
00:50:26,400 --> 00:50:29,799
Speaker 2: and ready to take down this fraud at Letti team.

1017
00:50:30,120 --> 00:50:33,040
Speaker 2: But first I think I have the better team here

1018
00:50:33,080 --> 00:50:35,600
Speaker 2: catching a half a goal. I'm willing to say that

1019
00:50:35,640 --> 00:50:40,200
Speaker 2: La Real, now fully healthy and armed with the best

1020
00:50:40,239 --> 00:50:46,160
Speaker 2: defense in this match, should be about a Nizzmidge better

1021
00:50:46,400 --> 00:50:49,080
Speaker 2: than let you on a neutral and so once I

1022
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:51,560
Speaker 2: you know, factor in home field idle he should be favored,

1023
00:50:51,600 --> 00:50:53,239
Speaker 2: of course, but not by the full half goal that

1024
00:50:53,280 --> 00:50:55,520
Speaker 2: the market is giving them here. So I will take

1025
00:50:55,600 --> 00:50:58,040
Speaker 2: La Real so see dot plus a half on the

1026
00:50:58,120 --> 00:51:02,040
Speaker 2: road and hopefully to Fusakubo is back and ready to

1027
00:51:03,080 --> 00:51:07,680
Speaker 2: cook a very mediocre and regressing defense.

1028
00:51:09,200 --> 00:51:14,200
Speaker 1: That will end up winning the Champions League BJ not

1029
00:51:14,360 --> 00:51:14,880
Speaker 1: to Syria.

1030
00:51:14,920 --> 00:51:21,120
Speaker 3: Ah yeah, Jose Mourinho's Roma minus one fifteen on the

1031
00:51:21,200 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 3: road on the island. Excuse me against Cagliari. Cagiliari, you

1032
00:51:26,480 --> 00:51:28,719
Speaker 3: know I mentioned this coming into the season, but they

1033
00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:31,360
Speaker 3: were only around like an even expected goldifrenchial about the

1034
00:51:31,400 --> 00:51:34,200
Speaker 3: all all of last year in the second division. Claudio

1035
00:51:34,360 --> 00:51:37,520
Speaker 3: Vinieri at the helm obviously you know former Leicster manager

1036
00:51:37,600 --> 00:51:41,200
Speaker 3: won the title with them. So far this season Cagliari

1037
00:51:41,360 --> 00:51:44,840
Speaker 3: has already conceded ten expected goals in seven matches, barely

1038
00:51:44,880 --> 00:51:47,719
Speaker 3: creating over five. So really a bad team here, and

1039
00:51:47,880 --> 00:51:51,000
Speaker 3: I know that Roma is playing a Europa League match

1040
00:51:51,080 --> 00:51:53,360
Speaker 3: on Thursday. They have not been a good form in

1041
00:51:53,400 --> 00:51:56,080
Speaker 3: Syria A, but they have been underperforming. Romo Coaker looks

1042
00:51:56,080 --> 00:51:58,759
Speaker 3: in good form, so they have a capable striker. I

1043
00:51:58,760 --> 00:52:01,439
Speaker 3: think the price is just far too on this Roma team.

1044
00:52:01,560 --> 00:52:05,040
Speaker 3: So Roma minus one ten on the road or on

1045
00:52:05,080 --> 00:52:07,200
Speaker 3: the island against Kaciari.

1046
00:52:07,880 --> 00:52:13,239
Speaker 1: And nothing from us for legal. So there's just a.

1047
00:52:13,160 --> 00:52:14,600
Speaker 3: Lot of matches that I want to play that I

1048
00:52:14,640 --> 00:52:17,080
Speaker 3: know I'm going to lose, per how I feel right

1049
00:52:17,080 --> 00:52:17,680
Speaker 3: now in France.

1050
00:52:18,080 --> 00:52:20,200
Speaker 1: So that means we can talk following.

1051
00:52:19,920 --> 00:52:21,760
Speaker 3: The app if you want to lose some bets in France.

1052
00:52:21,880 --> 00:52:27,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, we could talk our favorite underdogs three like underdog Parlay,

1053
00:52:27,400 --> 00:52:30,359
Speaker 1: our favorite part of every show. I had a late

1054
00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 1: switch and so we're not at one hundred and eighty

1055
00:52:32,719 --> 00:52:35,120
Speaker 1: two to one anymore. We're actually at one hundred and

1056
00:52:35,239 --> 00:52:35,799
Speaker 1: ninety seven.

1057
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have a feeling. I know what team came

1058
00:52:38,480 --> 00:52:39,359
Speaker 2: into the pod here.

1059
00:52:39,840 --> 00:52:41,719
Speaker 1: Yeah, you want to do you could do both if

1060
00:52:41,719 --> 00:52:43,640
Speaker 1: you want, you can do yours and mine go right.

1061
00:52:44,280 --> 00:52:45,320
Speaker 2: Is your team Loutontown?

1062
00:52:45,600 --> 00:52:46,520
Speaker 1: Oh it's Lootontown.

1063
00:52:47,200 --> 00:52:50,359
Speaker 2: Yeah, I had a feeling. Well, we already talked about

1064
00:52:50,360 --> 00:52:52,279
Speaker 2: that game for like five minutes, so we'll save the

1065
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:56,000
Speaker 2: further analysis. But yeah, I mean Loutontown. You're buying at

1066
00:52:56,000 --> 00:52:58,160
Speaker 2: the you're selling Spurs at the peak of their value.

1067
00:52:58,200 --> 00:53:02,320
Speaker 2: After they get this dramatic late victory for the second

1068
00:53:02,320 --> 00:53:05,360
Speaker 2: time in three weeks. They've had two Huge League matches

1069
00:53:05,360 --> 00:53:07,240
Speaker 2: in a row. Now they have a sleepy away morning

1070
00:53:07,280 --> 00:53:11,520
Speaker 2: spot noonkick against slowly Luton, who has played better than

1071
00:53:11,520 --> 00:53:14,760
Speaker 2: their numbers and their results thus far. So yeah, Luton

1072
00:53:14,800 --> 00:53:19,480
Speaker 2: at home underdogs. We are down five units this year,

1073
00:53:19,520 --> 00:53:21,759
Speaker 2: actually are I am? I am hurting the team. You

1074
00:53:21,760 --> 00:53:24,560
Speaker 2: guys are up slightly and I'm down for underdog. So

1075
00:53:24,560 --> 00:53:26,600
Speaker 2: I need to get cooking here and I'm going to

1076
00:53:26,680 --> 00:53:30,280
Speaker 2: try to find a winner, and that winner is Brentford

1077
00:53:30,400 --> 00:53:31,759
Speaker 2: four to one. I'm gonna do what you guys do,

1078
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:35,480
Speaker 2: just bet against United and passion. I'm doing for one

1079
00:53:35,480 --> 00:53:36,920
Speaker 2: of those. You guys have been doing it all year

1080
00:53:36,960 --> 00:53:39,200
Speaker 2: and I haven't. I've let you guys take the United

1081
00:53:39,239 --> 00:53:43,040
Speaker 2: fade underdog money lines and so sure Brentford money line

1082
00:53:43,080 --> 00:53:43,480
Speaker 2: four to one.

1083
00:53:44,280 --> 00:53:46,960
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's easy. So that's Looton down, that's Brentford and

1084
00:53:47,080 --> 00:53:50,880
Speaker 1: BJ This is another underdog fake has just found its

1085
00:53:50,920 --> 00:53:53,600
Speaker 1: way into this segment way too many times.

1086
00:53:54,840 --> 00:53:56,839
Speaker 3: I mean we're eight matches in the season. This team

1087
00:53:56,880 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 3: has found their way into my heart just too many times.

1088
00:53:59,480 --> 00:54:02,799
Speaker 3: But lost Palmas on the road plus five to ten

1089
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:07,280
Speaker 3: against Virel. Viral is in a very very bad place

1090
00:54:07,400 --> 00:54:11,520
Speaker 3: right now. They're currently sitting with a minus three expected

1091
00:54:11,520 --> 00:54:13,480
Speaker 3: gold the French all eight matches into the season. They've

1092
00:54:13,520 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 3: already fired their manager. Now they're switching a formation to

1093
00:54:16,239 --> 00:54:18,400
Speaker 3: a four to four to two. They were this possession

1094
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:20,640
Speaker 3: dominant team. Well now they're trying to play transitionally. It's

1095
00:54:20,680 --> 00:54:23,400
Speaker 3: just all very very chaotic and weird. And last Pomas

1096
00:54:23,440 --> 00:54:26,600
Speaker 3: is a very interesting statistical profile. Like defensively they've been

1097
00:54:26,680 --> 00:54:30,319
Speaker 3: very very good second lowest expected threat of anybody in

1098
00:54:30,400 --> 00:54:33,040
Speaker 3: La Liga this season. They've forced you know, their top

1099
00:54:33,080 --> 00:54:35,799
Speaker 3: five and forced high turnovers top five and pass per

1100
00:54:35,840 --> 00:54:38,920
Speaker 3: defensive action. Just a very very fun team that I

1101
00:54:39,040 --> 00:54:41,799
Speaker 3: like to continue backing. So let's hope they can give

1102
00:54:41,880 --> 00:54:44,000
Speaker 3: us a decent performance here on the road of Ariel.

1103
00:54:44,800 --> 00:54:47,200
Speaker 2: Last Pomus another reason why stoppage time should be banned

1104
00:54:47,200 --> 00:54:50,680
Speaker 2: after they beat Vegas all day now in stoppage time

1105
00:54:50,760 --> 00:54:52,640
Speaker 2: ninety seventh mint or something ridiculous.

1106
00:54:52,719 --> 00:54:54,880
Speaker 3: Yeah, fun, Yeah, deservingly won the match.

1107
00:54:54,800 --> 00:54:57,040
Speaker 2: Up and stoppage time they did not deserve shit.

1108
00:55:00,160 --> 00:55:03,560
Speaker 1: Last Palmus Lowtontown, Like I said, they were a late

1109
00:55:03,680 --> 00:55:05,520
Speaker 1: entry for me. I was originally going to go with

1110
00:55:05,560 --> 00:55:08,160
Speaker 1: Sheffield United. I'm still gonna bench God of course, you

1111
00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:13,759
Speaker 1: know what a chance of winning and uh Brentford for

1112
00:55:13,880 --> 00:55:18,120
Speaker 1: Anthony the customary Manchester United fate in our underdog segment.

1113
00:55:18,120 --> 00:55:20,400
Speaker 1: Like I said, it comes out one hundred and ninety

1114
00:55:20,400 --> 00:55:25,680
Speaker 1: seven to one. On to Best Bets, now bj your

1115
00:55:25,719 --> 00:55:28,480
Speaker 1: favorite bet for match Week eight in the Premier League.

1116
00:55:28,719 --> 00:55:31,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, I like a snoozer twelve thirty pm Eastern Time

1117
00:55:31,680 --> 00:55:34,440
Speaker 3: on Saturday, Chrystal Palace versus Nodingham Forrest. Like both team

1118
00:55:34,480 --> 00:55:37,479
Speaker 3: to score no at minus one fifteen. Asa and Edward

1119
00:55:37,520 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 3: are both going to miss this match for Crystal Palace,

1120
00:55:39,120 --> 00:55:42,000
Speaker 3: which basically goes all of their offensive output trying to

1121
00:55:42,040 --> 00:55:44,080
Speaker 3: break down and Noddingham Forest low block that has actually

1122
00:55:44,120 --> 00:55:46,640
Speaker 3: been very effective this season first and final third to

1123
00:55:46,719 --> 00:55:50,600
Speaker 3: box entry conversion rate, noting in Forrest offensively really only

1124
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 3: good and transitional moments. Chriystal Palace not gonna press you high,

1125
00:55:53,280 --> 00:55:55,879
Speaker 3: very very good in transition transition defense check the Cora

1126
00:55:56,000 --> 00:55:58,439
Speaker 3: one of the best transitional defenders in the Premier League.

1127
00:55:58,520 --> 00:55:59,840
Speaker 3: So if you want to get a picture of what

1128
00:55:59,840 --> 00:56:01,160
Speaker 3: the match is going to look like, look at the

1129
00:56:01,160 --> 00:56:03,399
Speaker 3: Crystal Palace full of match from a few weeks ago.

1130
00:56:03,760 --> 00:56:07,040
Speaker 3: Should be a very very snoozy type match. You know,

1131
00:56:07,040 --> 00:56:09,319
Speaker 3: if you wanna play some zero zero draws, I think

1132
00:56:09,320 --> 00:56:11,040
Speaker 3: that's definitely live here. So both team to score now

1133
00:56:11,120 --> 00:56:11,960
Speaker 3: minus one fifteen.

1134
00:56:12,360 --> 00:56:14,520
Speaker 1: Boy, there are so many bad teams that I'm going

1135
00:56:14,560 --> 00:56:18,400
Speaker 1: to be betting this week Bett Burnley. I'm going to be

1136
00:56:18,400 --> 00:56:22,560
Speaker 1: betting Sheffield United, betting Lowton Town. But I'm actually going

1137
00:56:22,560 --> 00:56:24,520
Speaker 1: to back a team I think is pretty solid against

1138
00:56:24,560 --> 00:56:29,520
Speaker 1: a team that is in a terrible, terrible spot. That's

1139
00:56:29,560 --> 00:56:32,719
Speaker 1: Manchester United. And I'm going to be using Brentford on

1140
00:56:32,760 --> 00:56:34,359
Speaker 1: the money line as my favorite bet for this week

1141
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:36,600
Speaker 1: four to one. Anthony talked about them in the underdog section.

1142
00:56:36,640 --> 00:56:39,920
Speaker 1: We aren't going to keep me from highlighting the bees

1143
00:56:39,960 --> 00:56:43,040
Speaker 1: in the spot. United has treated me so so, so

1144
00:56:43,040 --> 00:56:45,760
Speaker 1: so well this season. I think the only time that

1145
00:56:45,800 --> 00:56:47,480
Speaker 1: they trip me up was when I bet on them

1146
00:56:47,520 --> 00:56:50,080
Speaker 1: against Fyron Munich. I'll keep going against them when they're big,

1147
00:56:50,920 --> 00:56:53,520
Speaker 1: when they're big favorites, even at home. I think Old

1148
00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:55,440
Speaker 1: Trafford has a chance to turn from the theater of

1149
00:56:55,520 --> 00:56:59,319
Speaker 1: dreams to the theater of nightmares if Brentford can give

1150
00:56:59,400 --> 00:57:01,319
Speaker 1: United a game even if they struggle, if it's nil

1151
00:57:01,400 --> 00:57:03,600
Speaker 1: nail after like twenty five minutes and United just looks

1152
00:57:03,640 --> 00:57:07,080
Speaker 1: a drab, this thing could turn toxic. And we talk

1153
00:57:07,120 --> 00:57:09,000
Speaker 1: about we already spent a lot of time talking about

1154
00:57:09,000 --> 00:57:11,800
Speaker 1: how Brentford just profile as well stylistically. I guess the

1155
00:57:11,880 --> 00:57:16,120
Speaker 1: United team that really struggles defensively, especially against direct long balls.

1156
00:57:16,120 --> 00:57:20,320
Speaker 1: So the Bees baby back on the Bees another team.

1157
00:57:20,520 --> 00:57:23,000
Speaker 1: United's treated me so well in one way. Brentford's treated

1158
00:57:23,000 --> 00:57:24,600
Speaker 1: me so well over the years in a different way.

1159
00:57:25,120 --> 00:57:28,240
Speaker 1: So I'm always happy to back Thomas Frank and Buzz

1160
00:57:28,240 --> 00:57:31,080
Speaker 1: Buzz the Bees, Anthony bring us home.

1161
00:57:32,000 --> 00:57:33,920
Speaker 2: Arsenal City under two and a half. First match we

1162
00:57:33,960 --> 00:57:36,280
Speaker 2: talked about. I just think that we're going to see

1163
00:57:36,360 --> 00:57:39,320
Speaker 2: very conservative approaches from Guardiola and Arteta. That has been

1164
00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:43,080
Speaker 2: the majority of their matchups against one another. Arsenal tried

1165
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:44,680
Speaker 2: to be a little more on the front foot in

1166
00:57:44,760 --> 00:57:46,760
Speaker 2: that last meeting in the league and spring and they

1167
00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:51,440
Speaker 2: pretty much got cooked repeatedly by the same moves in transition.

1168
00:57:51,600 --> 00:57:55,600
Speaker 2: So I think we brought out you know, that kind

1169
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:57,920
Speaker 2: of hurts City's ability to do that same thing. Not

1170
00:57:58,040 --> 00:58:00,360
Speaker 2: that Alvarez and Foden haven't clearly stepped up and made

1171
00:58:00,400 --> 00:58:04,640
Speaker 2: up for the production. But I think that soccer being

1172
00:58:04,680 --> 00:58:08,360
Speaker 2: out is the big key here because if City gets ahead,

1173
00:58:08,480 --> 00:58:11,880
Speaker 2: they are going to sit on this lead and Arsenal's

1174
00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:13,840
Speaker 2: best attacker being out wi hurt their chances to play

1175
00:58:13,880 --> 00:58:15,760
Speaker 2: back into it. So un or two and a half

1176
00:58:15,800 --> 00:58:16,760
Speaker 2: even money.

1177
00:58:17,520 --> 00:58:20,640
Speaker 1: Okay, that is it for us today. That is it

1178
00:58:20,680 --> 00:58:21,880
Speaker 1: for us for a couple of weeks. We head into

1179
00:58:21,920 --> 00:58:26,480
Speaker 1: an international break. We'll see you guys again two weeks

1180
00:58:26,800 --> 00:58:30,880
Speaker 1: from today. Enjoy the soccer until it goes away for

1181
00:58:30,920 --> 00:58:34,000
Speaker 1: the break for Bija Cunningham, Anthony Dubundo, our sponsor's bet

1182
00:58:34,040 --> 00:58:36,360
Speaker 1: three six five our producer Noah. This is Michael leeb Up,

1183
00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:39,200
Speaker 1: wishing you the best of luck with all your best.

1184
00:58:47,000 --> 00:58:51,520
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1185
00:58:51,560 --> 00:58:54,360
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1186
00:58:54,360 --> 00:58:57,520
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler