1 00:00:01,200 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: The volume. The Colin Cowherd Podcast brought to you by 2 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:09,720 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. It's never been easier to play fantasy on 3 00:00:09,800 --> 00:00:13,000 Speaker 1: Fan Duel. Will they love basketball, golf, soccer or any 4 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:16,840 Speaker 1: fantasy sport. There is a contest for every fan Fan 5 00:00:16,960 --> 00:00:29,320 Speaker 1: Duel more ways to win, Hi, everybody. Chad Millman will 6 00:00:29,320 --> 00:00:31,720 Speaker 1: be joining us in ten minutes. First though, fake questions, 7 00:00:31,760 --> 00:00:34,519 Speaker 1: real answers. Things I want to talk about. But I 8 00:00:34,560 --> 00:00:36,320 Speaker 1: made up the questions, so I got to talk about 9 00:00:36,400 --> 00:00:38,239 Speaker 1: him and not wait for you to ask me him. 10 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:40,519 Speaker 1: Dear Colin, how the hell did all the reporters in 11 00:00:40,560 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: media in the Green Bay area not know that Aaron 12 00:00:42,760 --> 00:00:46,120 Speaker 1: Rodgers was unvaccinated? Well, it's a great question. Are you 13 00:00:46,159 --> 00:00:49,600 Speaker 1: doing journalism or advocacy? Are you there to report or 14 00:00:49,640 --> 00:00:52,199 Speaker 1: there to protect? How do people in the Green Bay 15 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,880 Speaker 1: media not one didn't know he had to miss some 16 00:00:55,960 --> 00:00:59,720 Speaker 1: quarterback meetings? Did they not find out he was following 17 00:00:59,760 --> 00:01:04,120 Speaker 1: pro to calls for unvaccinated players. The advantage to being 18 00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:08,800 Speaker 1: local media is access, right, That's the difference between local 19 00:01:08,800 --> 00:01:13,000 Speaker 1: and national. You're there every day. There's a certain responsibility 20 00:01:13,319 --> 00:01:18,320 Speaker 1: to have things get it right and be journalists not advocates. 21 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:22,120 Speaker 1: Years ago I was very critical of Aaron Rodgers based 22 00:01:22,160 --> 00:01:24,920 Speaker 1: on two to three sources that had played for them. 23 00:01:25,520 --> 00:01:28,720 Speaker 1: I got great pushback from the Green Bay and the 24 00:01:28,760 --> 00:01:33,199 Speaker 1: Wisconsin media. Have I not been right? The one thing 25 00:01:33,280 --> 00:01:37,399 Speaker 1: local media should always beat us on is these day 26 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,920 Speaker 1: to day stories where you have access because you're at practice, 27 00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:46,440 Speaker 1: because you have relationships with players. How did nobody know 28 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:51,480 Speaker 1: in the Green Bay media you're at every practice, you 29 00:01:51,600 --> 00:01:56,320 Speaker 1: have conversations with players daily. This is not always the 30 00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:03,440 Speaker 1: case in Philadelphia talk radio, local TV stations, the Philadelphia 31 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:08,080 Speaker 1: Inquirer are constantly breaking stories on the Eagles, positive and negative. 32 00:02:08,400 --> 00:02:11,400 Speaker 1: It's not the case in Dallas between the Dallas Morning 33 00:02:11,400 --> 00:02:14,839 Speaker 1: News and the Fort Worth Star Telegram. The local television 34 00:02:14,919 --> 00:02:20,480 Speaker 1: reporters in Dallas are sensational at breaking cowboy news. Sometimes 35 00:02:20,560 --> 00:02:24,600 Speaker 1: I think the smaller the market, the more collegiate the coverage, 36 00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:28,400 Speaker 1: and that reporters are afraid of losing a press pass 37 00:02:28,560 --> 00:02:32,840 Speaker 1: or access if they're negative. Let's get out of advocacy 38 00:02:32,880 --> 00:02:36,600 Speaker 1: and get back into reporting. Dear Colin, did you like 39 00:02:36,680 --> 00:02:39,840 Speaker 1: Odell Beckham Senior getting involved in his son's business by 40 00:02:39,840 --> 00:02:43,680 Speaker 1: posting those videos of his son being wide open? No? 41 00:02:44,040 --> 00:02:46,680 Speaker 1: I always think it's a problem when the family gets involved. 42 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:48,880 Speaker 1: I mean, let me ask you once the last time 43 00:02:48,880 --> 00:02:52,000 Speaker 1: a family member got involved and it really worked out well. 44 00:02:52,639 --> 00:02:56,639 Speaker 1: Aisha Curry, Steph's wife blaming the refs during the twenty 45 00:02:56,720 --> 00:03:01,280 Speaker 1: sixteen NBA Finals, LaVar Ball and the Lakers. Kolby Rasmus's 46 00:03:01,320 --> 00:03:04,720 Speaker 1: dad blasting Tony Larus and the Cardinals for trading him. Listen, 47 00:03:04,760 --> 00:03:07,880 Speaker 1: my wife's not on social media. There is a reason 48 00:03:08,040 --> 00:03:11,520 Speaker 1: my wife is not on social media. Patrick Mahomes family 49 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:17,640 Speaker 1: in recent weeks. It's a really bad look for Patrick Mahomes. 50 00:03:18,600 --> 00:03:21,880 Speaker 1: I don't like what Odell Beckham Senior did. I think 51 00:03:21,919 --> 00:03:24,720 Speaker 1: it was really poor judgment. And my guess is O 52 00:03:24,960 --> 00:03:28,560 Speaker 1: b J asked him to do it to force his 53 00:03:28,639 --> 00:03:32,880 Speaker 1: way out and the Browns didn't cave. Dear Colin Lebron 54 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:35,360 Speaker 1: is expected to miss a week with a slight injury. 55 00:03:35,720 --> 00:03:37,920 Speaker 1: Seems like he's getting hurt more and more often. How 56 00:03:37,960 --> 00:03:41,600 Speaker 1: concerned should the Lakers be? Listen, we all know the 57 00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,920 Speaker 1: Lakers championship with Lebron and a D. They got a 58 00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:50,600 Speaker 1: huge pandemic break brittle a D and old Lebron got 59 00:03:50,600 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: a nearly four month hiatus in the middle of a season. 60 00:03:55,760 --> 00:03:58,680 Speaker 1: If you look at the last four years of Anthony Davis, 61 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:02,080 Speaker 1: he can't make it through a season. He certainly can't 62 00:04:02,120 --> 00:04:04,320 Speaker 1: make it through a season, plus the playoffs and the 63 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:09,040 Speaker 1: intensity there. We also know Lebron is now well into 64 00:04:09,080 --> 00:04:14,280 Speaker 1: sixty thousand minutes of playing. Usually the point where athletes 65 00:04:14,320 --> 00:04:17,599 Speaker 1: start to get more injuries is forty to forty five 66 00:04:17,920 --> 00:04:22,320 Speaker 1: thousand minutes played. Lebron's at sixty thousand minutes. I don't 67 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:26,919 Speaker 1: believe Lebron in a D's championship days have any tarmac left. 68 00:04:27,880 --> 00:04:30,760 Speaker 1: I think they got a huge break during the pandemic 69 00:04:30,800 --> 00:04:33,559 Speaker 1: and the bubble and a big hiatus in the middle 70 00:04:33,600 --> 00:04:38,000 Speaker 1: of it. I think they'll be good. But folks, the 71 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:43,960 Speaker 1: resumes are clear Lebron's old ades brittle. Dear Colin, you're 72 00:04:44,000 --> 00:04:46,120 Speaker 1: getting a lot of pushback for saying you want one 73 00:04:46,200 --> 00:04:48,880 Speaker 1: loss Alabama in the playoffs, but you don't want unbeaten 74 00:04:48,960 --> 00:04:52,560 Speaker 1: Cincinnati getting in. What do people so wildly fail to 75 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:57,520 Speaker 1: understand about college football? Here's what I always here, It's 76 00:04:57,560 --> 00:05:00,919 Speaker 1: not fair. Can I ask you a question, Is it 77 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,160 Speaker 1: fair that Cincinnati the Bearcats play on the road in 78 00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 1: front of thirty five thousand people and Alabama has to 79 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:09,000 Speaker 1: play on the road in front of eighty to one 80 00:05:09,080 --> 00:05:13,479 Speaker 1: hundred thousand people. Is it fair that Alabama goes on 81 00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:17,120 Speaker 1: the road in the SEC and regularly faces teams with 82 00:05:17,200 --> 00:05:20,479 Speaker 1: a dozen NFL players on the roster, and that Cincinnati 83 00:05:20,560 --> 00:05:24,920 Speaker 1: often faces teams with none. Is it fair that the 84 00:05:24,960 --> 00:05:28,560 Speaker 1: coaching staffs in the SEC are the highest paid and 85 00:05:28,720 --> 00:05:31,960 Speaker 1: you often get the very best coaching staffs as opponents 86 00:05:31,960 --> 00:05:35,280 Speaker 1: weaken in week out, And that it's very possible that 87 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: Luke Fickle is easily the best coach in the conference 88 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:42,520 Speaker 1: he's in, and not only that, they may never face 89 00:05:42,880 --> 00:05:46,120 Speaker 1: a coach in their conference that is good enough to 90 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:49,880 Speaker 1: be a head coach in the SEC. That's not fair either. 91 00:05:51,000 --> 00:05:53,800 Speaker 1: There are certain truths in America that people just don't 92 00:05:53,800 --> 00:05:57,159 Speaker 1: want to hear, like rich people are mostly smarter and 93 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:00,440 Speaker 1: work harder. You do realize they're not born into it. 94 00:06:00,800 --> 00:06:05,240 Speaker 1: Seventy nine percent millionaires did not inherit any money. Sixteen 95 00:06:05,279 --> 00:06:08,680 Speaker 1: percent inherited more than one hundred grand, but only three 96 00:06:08,720 --> 00:06:12,919 Speaker 1: percent received an inheritance above a million dollars. Smart and 97 00:06:13,040 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 1: hard work is generally how you get rich. People love 98 00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,760 Speaker 1: to defend mom and pop stores, but Amazon Starbucks are 99 00:06:20,760 --> 00:06:24,039 Speaker 1: simply more efficient at getting me a product at a 100 00:06:24,120 --> 00:06:27,719 Speaker 1: better price than a local bomb and pop store. Do 101 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:30,520 Speaker 1: you really think Cincinnati is one of the best four 102 00:06:30,560 --> 00:06:33,360 Speaker 1: teams in the country. Do you really think they would 103 00:06:33,360 --> 00:06:37,760 Speaker 1: beat Alabama head to head. It's not fair. They get 104 00:06:37,800 --> 00:06:45,440 Speaker 1: their schedule and Alabama has theirs. How's that for fairness? Okay, 105 00:06:45,520 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 1: Chad Millman, CCO Action Network. So I went three and 106 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,600 Speaker 1: two on my Blazing five last week. I had Buffalo, 107 00:06:51,640 --> 00:06:54,360 Speaker 1: I called the Patriots over the Chargers, and I had 108 00:06:54,440 --> 00:06:59,880 Speaker 1: the Saints giving Tom Brady once again he's their kryptonite troubles. 109 00:07:00,040 --> 00:07:02,320 Speaker 1: We had a good week and I thought I had 110 00:07:02,400 --> 00:07:04,279 Speaker 1: a great pick in the Colts over the Titans, but 111 00:07:04,520 --> 00:07:06,599 Speaker 1: a left handed pass from the end zone screwed me. 112 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:08,800 Speaker 1: And that's life, and that's Carson Wentz and he's reckless 113 00:07:08,800 --> 00:07:11,320 Speaker 1: and he basically torpedoed the season. But nonetheless, I'm in 114 00:07:11,360 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: a great mood, so let's let just that left handed 115 00:07:15,360 --> 00:07:18,000 Speaker 1: pass just and then in overtime he made an even 116 00:07:19,040 --> 00:07:22,200 Speaker 1: more regrettable throw, and I'm like, oh God, it's of 117 00:07:22,320 --> 00:07:24,920 Speaker 1: some of these players. He's darnled with more talent, You're 118 00:07:24,920 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: just going to get one of those throws. A weekend. 119 00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:28,400 Speaker 1: It's just the way it is when he goes back, 120 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:31,720 Speaker 1: because look, you were invested in the Colts. I was 121 00:07:31,760 --> 00:07:35,200 Speaker 1: invested in the Colts. Loved the Colts last weekend. A 122 00:07:35,200 --> 00:07:37,880 Speaker 1: couple of flute plays there, right, the guy getting the interception, 123 00:07:37,960 --> 00:07:40,400 Speaker 1: running it back, grabbing his hammy, falling to the ground. 124 00:07:40,640 --> 00:07:44,160 Speaker 1: The Titans get the ball back, they drive. It's fourteen fourteen. 125 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:48,640 Speaker 1: But in that overtime when Carson Wentz dropped back, I 126 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:52,880 Speaker 1: thought to myself, this terrible and as soon as he 127 00:07:52,960 --> 00:07:55,880 Speaker 1: did that it was picked. I'm like, that's it, and 128 00:07:55,920 --> 00:07:58,200 Speaker 1: that was probably, like, for me, one of my biggest 129 00:07:58,240 --> 00:08:00,559 Speaker 1: bets of the year. It hurts so much that everything 130 00:08:00,640 --> 00:08:04,040 Speaker 1: about that was lined upright, and even more than the Vikings, 131 00:08:04,040 --> 00:08:07,160 Speaker 1: which was also pretty painful. But you know what, Colin, 132 00:08:07,200 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: You live and learn and you move on to the 133 00:08:09,080 --> 00:08:13,520 Speaker 1: next week. We're professionals, so I like the Ravens minus 134 00:08:13,520 --> 00:08:16,600 Speaker 1: six this week. Here's why. My theory has always been 135 00:08:16,720 --> 00:08:20,559 Speaker 1: well coached, talented teams that get humiliated, especially at home, 136 00:08:21,240 --> 00:08:24,000 Speaker 1: play well. The next week. The Ravens got thumped by 137 00:08:24,000 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: the Bengals. They've been very focused in Minnesota. Let's be 138 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:34,960 Speaker 1: honest here, I think there's a little turmoil inside this organization. 139 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:40,120 Speaker 1: Mike Zimmer, I don't know if he's long for the job. 140 00:08:40,679 --> 00:08:44,080 Speaker 1: Kirk Cousins just got beat by Cooper Rush. I don't 141 00:08:44,120 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: know if there's buying in the locker room. The Ravens 142 00:08:47,320 --> 00:08:49,800 Speaker 1: Now are in a dog fight for the playoffs. Pittsburgh 143 00:08:49,800 --> 00:08:53,040 Speaker 1: playing better than we thought. Cincinnati just thumped him. I'm 144 00:08:53,080 --> 00:08:55,400 Speaker 1: going to take the Ravens with extra time to prep 145 00:08:55,440 --> 00:09:00,800 Speaker 1: to thump the Vikings square or sharp. It's it's completely 146 00:09:01,240 --> 00:09:04,240 Speaker 1: down the middle. And I don't like to equivocate on 147 00:09:04,280 --> 00:09:06,959 Speaker 1: these because I like to give you a direct answer. 148 00:09:07,800 --> 00:09:10,000 Speaker 1: But I have heard both sides of this, and the 149 00:09:10,040 --> 00:09:13,160 Speaker 1: way the number has moved has shown that it's on 150 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:15,600 Speaker 1: both sides. What's interesting about the NFL and now Colin, 151 00:09:15,800 --> 00:09:19,120 Speaker 1: is that the number six has become as much of 152 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:21,920 Speaker 1: a key number as the number seven. Remember it used 153 00:09:21,920 --> 00:09:24,520 Speaker 1: to be games they tend to land on three, seven, 154 00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:29,400 Speaker 1: and ten. Now they land on three, four, six, seven, 155 00:09:29,520 --> 00:09:33,120 Speaker 1: and ten because of the extra point, because of the 156 00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:35,720 Speaker 1: two point conversion, those things come into play much more often. 157 00:09:35,960 --> 00:09:38,760 Speaker 1: So six is where this number has been bouncing around. 158 00:09:39,160 --> 00:09:41,560 Speaker 1: It was at five and a half, it went up 159 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:43,439 Speaker 1: to six it went up to six and a half. 160 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,720 Speaker 1: The wise guys bet the Vikings at six and a half, 161 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,080 Speaker 1: they bet it down to six. Now it's back at six, 162 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:54,160 Speaker 1: and so everyone's been bouncing around. I'm with you on 163 00:09:54,200 --> 00:09:57,240 Speaker 1: the Ravens. I think for all the reasons you said, 164 00:09:57,720 --> 00:09:59,760 Speaker 1: the one thing that everyone says the Viking should be 165 00:09:59,800 --> 00:10:03,160 Speaker 1: able to do is defend against a running quarterback like 166 00:10:03,280 --> 00:10:06,800 Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson. But this is a team that everyone keeps 167 00:10:06,800 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 1: saying the Vikings should do X, the Vikings should be X, 168 00:10:11,400 --> 00:10:15,559 Speaker 1: and all we see them do is lose in really 169 00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:19,680 Speaker 1: really bad situations that are advantageous to them. That last 170 00:10:19,679 --> 00:10:22,760 Speaker 1: second loss to the Cardinals, that last second loss to 171 00:10:22,840 --> 00:10:26,240 Speaker 1: the Bengals, that lost this week to the Cowboys, Like 172 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 1: it's there's a pattern there where they're having a hard 173 00:10:29,280 --> 00:10:32,880 Speaker 1: time figuring out who they are and closing out games 174 00:10:32,920 --> 00:10:35,360 Speaker 1: on the road against the rested team that has something 175 00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:38,199 Speaker 1: to prove. I'm going to go with the Ravens. You're sharp, 176 00:10:38,559 --> 00:10:41,000 Speaker 1: I'm going to take and the number is three and 177 00:10:41,080 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 1: a half, and Christian McCaffrey is practicing, but I'm going 178 00:10:44,800 --> 00:10:47,120 Speaker 1: to take the Patriots minus three and a half. It's 179 00:10:47,160 --> 00:10:49,880 Speaker 1: not one of my favorite bets at all. But there's 180 00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:53,000 Speaker 1: something to remember. This is why I took the Patriots 181 00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:57,559 Speaker 1: over Justin Herbert how old is Darnald under twenty five? 182 00:10:58,040 --> 00:11:02,160 Speaker 1: In fact, he's like twenty three, and Belichick owns quarterbacks 183 00:11:02,240 --> 00:11:08,040 Speaker 1: under twenty five. McCaffrey may play, but here's an issue 184 00:11:08,040 --> 00:11:12,800 Speaker 1: with the Panthers. Carolina does not have a single receiver. 185 00:11:14,720 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 1: I talked to this recently with Greg Olsen. Robbie Anderson's fast. Okay, 186 00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:25,079 Speaker 1: they don't really have a receiver. They have to scheme 187 00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:29,559 Speaker 1: all of them open, and so it makes it difficult 188 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:32,320 Speaker 1: for Sam Darnold. This is not a team where people 189 00:11:32,360 --> 00:11:39,800 Speaker 1: are open. Sam last week was efficient, not spectacular. But 190 00:11:39,880 --> 00:11:42,319 Speaker 1: if you look at the four or five times Belichick 191 00:11:42,360 --> 00:11:45,959 Speaker 1: has faced Darnold, and I've told you cognitively, I think 192 00:11:45,960 --> 00:11:51,559 Speaker 1: the game moves too fast for Sam. New England is healthy, 193 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:55,240 Speaker 1: they're not making mistakes, they're winning time of possession. I 194 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:58,280 Speaker 1: do not trust Darnold. It's not a great play, but 195 00:11:58,360 --> 00:12:01,440 Speaker 1: I'm betting momentum in the Patriot and I'm betting against 196 00:12:01,600 --> 00:12:06,880 Speaker 1: Arnold in this space, and you're betting up like a square, 197 00:12:07,360 --> 00:12:11,240 Speaker 1: betting like a square. This is the game that every 198 00:12:11,600 --> 00:12:17,600 Speaker 1: single professional better is targeting. This is a really good defense. 199 00:12:18,120 --> 00:12:22,360 Speaker 1: The Patriots are taking advantage in the market. They are 200 00:12:22,640 --> 00:12:27,120 Speaker 1: inflated in the market because they beat a Chargers team 201 00:12:27,440 --> 00:12:32,040 Speaker 1: that has a really really really bad defense. They the 202 00:12:32,080 --> 00:12:35,439 Speaker 1: week before they beat a Jets team that has a really, 203 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:40,760 Speaker 1: really really bad defense. The teams they've lost to the Dolphins, 204 00:12:41,000 --> 00:12:44,360 Speaker 1: who still have a good defense, the Saints who have 205 00:12:44,480 --> 00:12:49,720 Speaker 1: a great defense, the Cowboys who have an opportunistic defense, 206 00:12:50,040 --> 00:12:54,520 Speaker 1: the Bucks who have an opportunistic front four. All right, 207 00:12:54,800 --> 00:12:58,600 Speaker 1: the Panthers are better than all of those defenses. And 208 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:01,000 Speaker 1: what the Panthers can do that a lot of other 209 00:13:01,040 --> 00:13:06,040 Speaker 1: teams can't do is they can rush the pasture without 210 00:13:06,080 --> 00:13:09,080 Speaker 1: having to blitz. And what that's been doing is making 211 00:13:09,120 --> 00:13:12,960 Speaker 1: their defensive backfield one of the best defensive backfields in 212 00:13:13,000 --> 00:13:15,079 Speaker 1: the league. And we saw it get even better was 213 00:13:15,320 --> 00:13:18,679 Speaker 1: to find Gilmour coming back last week. And by the way, 214 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:22,080 Speaker 1: I don't know that Darnold is going to play because 215 00:13:22,080 --> 00:13:26,120 Speaker 1: of the concussion protocols, and so you might get PJ. Walker. 216 00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:29,760 Speaker 1: If you get PJ Walker, I'm fine with that because 217 00:13:30,120 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 1: the Patriots linebackers are not very athletic, so you've got 218 00:13:33,400 --> 00:13:35,719 Speaker 1: an opportunity to get a running quarterback who can get 219 00:13:35,720 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 1: outside the pocket and probably find an edge against some 220 00:13:38,520 --> 00:13:41,160 Speaker 1: linebackers who can't keep up with him. One more thing, 221 00:13:41,440 --> 00:13:46,439 Speaker 1: Shack Thompson coming back, another legitimate weapon on defense. This 222 00:13:46,520 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 1: might be one of the most challenging fronts that Mac 223 00:13:48,559 --> 00:13:51,880 Speaker 1: Jones faces all season, that he's faced up to this 224 00:13:51,960 --> 00:13:55,760 Speaker 1: point in the season. I'm getting the Panthers at three 225 00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:59,079 Speaker 1: and a half, Like, come on, I'm getting a home 226 00:13:59,120 --> 00:14:03,640 Speaker 1: team and the hook and all the bets coming in 227 00:14:03,800 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: on the road team that is overinflated. Colin, you no better? Okay. 228 00:14:12,840 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 1: This week marks the halfway point to the NFL season. 229 00:14:15,559 --> 00:14:19,920 Speaker 1: There is a big Sunday afternoon matchup Packers Kansas City. 230 00:14:20,120 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: FanDuel sports Book about to make it even bigger. They're 231 00:14:23,560 --> 00:14:27,960 Speaker 1: giving new customers thirty to one odds on either team 232 00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 1: to win. You can win one hundred and fifty bucks 233 00:14:30,600 --> 00:14:33,120 Speaker 1: and a five dollars bet. The current line is Packers 234 00:14:33,120 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 1: plus seven and a half. 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Major distraction week for Cleveland. Cincinnati embarrassed losing 260 00:15:52,400 --> 00:15:57,360 Speaker 1: to the Jets. The Browns defense is I think underrated 261 00:15:57,440 --> 00:15:59,920 Speaker 1: still because we pay so much attention to the offense, 262 00:16:00,040 --> 00:16:03,760 Speaker 1: but they don't take the ball away. And I look 263 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:08,160 Speaker 1: at a very focused Bengals team. I think they have 264 00:16:08,240 --> 00:16:10,840 Speaker 1: an edge at quarterback. I think they have a significant 265 00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:17,920 Speaker 1: advantage at skill positions. And I think Cleveland's offense is broken. 266 00:16:19,440 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: I mean, ask yourself. They have a top five defense, 267 00:16:22,800 --> 00:16:25,800 Speaker 1: maybe the best offensive line, one of the top running games, 268 00:16:25,840 --> 00:16:29,600 Speaker 1: and they can't score. Their offense is broken. Cincinnati's not. 269 00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:32,400 Speaker 1: I like Cincinnati minus two and a half to win 270 00:16:32,480 --> 00:16:35,360 Speaker 1: by about a touchdown Sharper Square. Here's what's interesting about 271 00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:40,360 Speaker 1: sports betting. Every single week, there's probably six, seven, eight 272 00:16:40,440 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 1: games that everyone who knows anything about sports betting zeros 273 00:16:47,400 --> 00:16:50,200 Speaker 1: in on right. We just talked about a couple of them. 274 00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:52,800 Speaker 1: We talked about the Panthers. I bet We're going to 275 00:16:52,840 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 1: talk about a couple others later. This is one of 276 00:16:56,800 --> 00:17:00,360 Speaker 1: those games. And so as you know, when we do 277 00:17:00,400 --> 00:17:03,920 Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast with professional better Simon Hunter, we'll do 278 00:17:03,920 --> 00:17:06,680 Speaker 1: it on Tuesday, and then on Thursday we'll do the 279 00:17:06,760 --> 00:17:10,040 Speaker 1: segment called sharp Calls where I will say to Simon, Okay, 280 00:17:10,359 --> 00:17:12,280 Speaker 1: you got calls from your wise guy buddy this week 281 00:17:12,600 --> 00:17:14,199 Speaker 1: and all of his buddies. And by the way, like 282 00:17:14,359 --> 00:17:17,360 Speaker 1: he gets legit calls. Like if I mentioned the betters 283 00:17:17,400 --> 00:17:20,000 Speaker 1: that call him, you would know all of them. They are, 284 00:17:20,080 --> 00:17:23,440 Speaker 1: like and not because they're famous, they're because it's because 285 00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,160 Speaker 1: you're connected to Vegas. You would know who these guys are. 286 00:17:26,720 --> 00:17:29,360 Speaker 1: They're running big money. They always call them and say, 287 00:17:29,400 --> 00:17:31,200 Speaker 1: this is what you're getting right, this is what we think, 288 00:17:31,320 --> 00:17:34,080 Speaker 1: this is what we agree with. We love the Bengals, 289 00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:37,520 Speaker 1: Simon and I both it makes perfect sense. This was 290 00:17:37,560 --> 00:17:39,359 Speaker 1: the game that most people call them and said, we 291 00:17:39,440 --> 00:17:42,800 Speaker 1: love the Browns. I'm with you, I'm with you. This 292 00:17:42,880 --> 00:17:47,960 Speaker 1: makes perfect sense. A short home favorite that just came 293 00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:51,240 Speaker 1: off of a bad spot, that has the better quarterback, 294 00:17:51,520 --> 00:17:55,440 Speaker 1: that has more talent on the outside. It makes perfect sense. 295 00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:57,520 Speaker 1: The reason the wise guys, some of the wise guys 296 00:17:57,560 --> 00:17:59,840 Speaker 1: like the Browns is because they do like the pass rush, 297 00:17:59,920 --> 00:18:02,439 Speaker 1: and they do like the fact that Kevin Stefanski basically 298 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:05,480 Speaker 1: said Odell Beckham, We're done with you. You're not good 299 00:18:05,520 --> 00:18:07,280 Speaker 1: for the team. I don't care how talented you are. 300 00:18:07,600 --> 00:18:10,240 Speaker 1: And that gives a lot, that gives people confidence, But 301 00:18:10,480 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 1: it makes zero sense to me that you're betting on 302 00:18:13,600 --> 00:18:17,159 Speaker 1: a team that isn't as talented as the home team 303 00:18:17,240 --> 00:18:20,399 Speaker 1: that is getting less than a field goal. You're sharp, 304 00:18:20,720 --> 00:18:24,800 Speaker 1: I'm sharp, Simon sharp, all right. I like the Falcons 305 00:18:24,800 --> 00:18:28,720 Speaker 1: plus six at the Saints. It's a division rival. Michael 306 00:18:28,760 --> 00:18:33,040 Speaker 1: Thomas will not play now you're using now we've seen 307 00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:37,840 Speaker 1: video of Trevor Simeon Taysom Hill's coming off a concussion. 308 00:18:38,160 --> 00:18:40,680 Speaker 1: These guys, by the way, maybe sharing snaps. Neither is 309 00:18:40,720 --> 00:18:43,400 Speaker 1: good enough to share snaps. This is a pop gun 310 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:46,200 Speaker 1: offense and a great defense. I think it's a close game. 311 00:18:46,280 --> 00:18:48,200 Speaker 1: I think the Saints win, but I think six is 312 00:18:48,240 --> 00:18:51,680 Speaker 1: way too many points to give the better quarterback division game. 313 00:18:52,440 --> 00:18:54,680 Speaker 1: Now without Calvin Ridley, it's not the same offense. I 314 00:18:55,119 --> 00:18:57,199 Speaker 1: like the under on this, but six points in a 315 00:18:57,240 --> 00:18:59,720 Speaker 1: division rivalry with the competent quarterback feels like way too 316 00:18:59,760 --> 00:19:01,960 Speaker 1: many points here. Well, now, I just feel like I'm 317 00:19:02,000 --> 00:19:04,680 Speaker 1: talking to a wise guy. A couple of things. Number One, 318 00:19:05,560 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 1: the under this is a really low total. It's forty one, 319 00:19:08,680 --> 00:19:11,680 Speaker 1: and that doesn't correlate to having a number as high 320 00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:15,320 Speaker 1: as plus six, So it doesn't make any sense. The 321 00:19:15,320 --> 00:19:19,000 Speaker 1: bookmakers are basically telling you they're over inflating on the 322 00:19:19,080 --> 00:19:21,320 Speaker 1: side because they really think this is going to be 323 00:19:21,359 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 1: a close game. And this is a massive, massive letdown 324 00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: spot for the Saints. Number one, you just mentioned it, 325 00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:31,360 Speaker 1: Taysom Hill, Trevor Simeon, Who's it going to be? Does 326 00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:35,240 Speaker 1: it really matter? Should the Saints with either third string 327 00:19:35,400 --> 00:19:39,560 Speaker 1: or four string quarterbacks be six point favorites to anybody 328 00:19:39,760 --> 00:19:43,879 Speaker 1: at this point? Probably not right, And so that's number one. 329 00:19:43,960 --> 00:19:49,520 Speaker 1: Number two, the Saints in these spots with Sean Payton 330 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:55,160 Speaker 1: are not very good all right. Over his career twenty 331 00:19:55,160 --> 00:19:59,120 Speaker 1: two thirty two and one against the spread in this 332 00:19:59,160 --> 00:20:03,000 Speaker 1: spot that's forty right. This is a team in New Orleans. 333 00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:07,800 Speaker 1: They closed it's five point favors against Seattle. They won 334 00:20:07,880 --> 00:20:10,320 Speaker 1: by just three against Carolina. They were favored by more 335 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:14,320 Speaker 1: than field goal and loss is the market overreacting to 336 00:20:14,440 --> 00:20:18,680 Speaker 1: Ridley being out and a really ugly loss to the Panthers. Possibly, 337 00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:22,880 Speaker 1: but to me, this is like power raidered at about four. 338 00:20:22,960 --> 00:20:27,040 Speaker 1: You're getting two points of value here, So yes, yes, 339 00:20:27,160 --> 00:20:33,600 Speaker 1: please the Falcons plus six. By the way, her about 340 00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:37,560 Speaker 1: that huge pros Joe's game. The public loves the Saints, 341 00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:40,960 Speaker 1: the pros love the Falcons. I'm going to take the 342 00:20:40,960 --> 00:20:45,400 Speaker 1: Bears plus six against the Steelers. Despite Pittsburgh's win at Cleveland. 343 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:48,919 Speaker 1: You come off a big emotional divisional rivalry game and 344 00:20:48,960 --> 00:20:52,119 Speaker 1: a big win for the Steelers, natural letdown. You go 345 00:20:52,200 --> 00:20:54,639 Speaker 1: home against the Chicago Bear team, and as Greg Kosell 346 00:20:54,720 --> 00:20:59,439 Speaker 1: told us this week, justin Fields is getting there. This 347 00:20:59,480 --> 00:21:03,280 Speaker 1: is a good defense. This remains an anemic Pittsburgh offense. 348 00:21:03,480 --> 00:21:05,560 Speaker 1: This is simply too many points. This game has a 349 00:21:05,560 --> 00:21:08,840 Speaker 1: twenty four, twenty, twenty three, twenty field to it. I 350 00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,359 Speaker 1: think there's value on the Bear's side. I think they're defense. 351 00:21:11,400 --> 00:21:15,120 Speaker 1: I think you have two excellent defenses and two offenses 352 00:21:15,840 --> 00:21:18,560 Speaker 1: struggling to find an identity. That's just too many points. 353 00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:21,280 Speaker 1: I like the Bears and the points. Yeah, this is 354 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,240 Speaker 1: a pass. Basically for everyone I spoke to about this game, 355 00:21:24,320 --> 00:21:26,720 Speaker 1: like there's no edge. If you like this game, it's 356 00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:30,800 Speaker 1: because you decided you're buying in on Justin Fields. As 357 00:21:30,800 --> 00:21:33,440 Speaker 1: a Bears fan. My one issue with this is that 358 00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,360 Speaker 1: I don't think the Bears coaches are very good play callers. 359 00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:38,119 Speaker 1: I don't think that they're going to put him in 360 00:21:38,160 --> 00:21:40,560 Speaker 1: a position to succeed. And I do think that the 361 00:21:40,640 --> 00:21:44,200 Speaker 1: one thing he has been terrible at is playing against 362 00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:46,760 Speaker 1: the pass rush, and that to me is the biggest 363 00:21:46,760 --> 00:21:49,040 Speaker 1: fear because the Steelers have a pretty fierce pass rush, 364 00:21:49,240 --> 00:21:52,400 Speaker 1: and when Justin Fields has people coming to his face, 365 00:21:52,760 --> 00:21:56,600 Speaker 1: he just has not been making good decisions. So for me, 366 00:21:57,040 --> 00:21:58,920 Speaker 1: and I think for the wise guys, there's no real 367 00:21:59,000 --> 00:22:00,639 Speaker 1: edge here. And even in the market, the way the 368 00:22:00,720 --> 00:22:03,359 Speaker 1: numbers are shaping up, you're not seeing anything. Literally, the 369 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:06,040 Speaker 1: bets are fifty fifty, so you're not seeing anything that 370 00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:10,320 Speaker 1: indicates one edge over the other. I like the Packers 371 00:22:10,359 --> 00:22:12,760 Speaker 1: FanDuel has it at seven and a half. At Kansas City, 372 00:22:13,320 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 1: nobody has seen Jordan Love. He is bigfoot. We have 373 00:22:17,359 --> 00:22:21,120 Speaker 1: grainy footage about a year ago, So Kansas City's got 374 00:22:21,119 --> 00:22:23,560 Speaker 1: a bad defense and has no idea what they're getting. 375 00:22:23,720 --> 00:22:27,880 Speaker 1: There could be RPO elements nobody knows except green Bay. 376 00:22:28,480 --> 00:22:31,720 Speaker 1: This is a very good running game. Davante Adams is 377 00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:36,640 Speaker 1: back to me. I think you have to be fairly tentative, 378 00:22:36,960 --> 00:22:40,840 Speaker 1: not aggressive when you face Jordan Love. This is a 379 00:22:40,880 --> 00:22:44,439 Speaker 1: wild card game. Green Bay missing eleven starters. I know 380 00:22:44,520 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 1: they had Aaron went to the desert and pushed around Arizona. 381 00:22:48,560 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 1: I think they went in the trenches. Seven and a 382 00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:53,480 Speaker 1: half is too much. I like green Bay Sharper squares, 383 00:22:53,600 --> 00:22:55,920 Speaker 1: sharp play right there, Colin. I think there's been an 384 00:22:55,920 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: overreaction in the market to Aaron Rodgers being out. What 385 00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:04,719 Speaker 1: you're seeing is basically a nine point swing in the 386 00:23:04,720 --> 00:23:08,480 Speaker 1: point spread. Quarterbacks are always going to be worth more 387 00:23:08,520 --> 00:23:11,560 Speaker 1: than anybody else. If you've got a player other than 388 00:23:11,600 --> 00:23:15,800 Speaker 1: a quarterback who's worth one one and a half points, 389 00:23:15,880 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 1: that is a massive move. You've got quarterbacks, You're gonna 390 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:23,280 Speaker 1: get Aaron Rodgers, You're gonna get Tom Brady. We saw 391 00:23:23,280 --> 00:23:26,280 Speaker 1: it with Russell Wilson and Gino Smith. The lines move 392 00:23:26,359 --> 00:23:31,040 Speaker 1: seven to ten points, So this is a nine point swing. 393 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:36,080 Speaker 1: You gotta take the Packers here. It's too much of 394 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:39,480 Speaker 1: a move in the market, and I think the wise 395 00:23:39,520 --> 00:23:41,360 Speaker 1: guys are all going to look at this and they're 396 00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:44,520 Speaker 1: gonna say, I've gotta do it. We talked about it 397 00:23:44,560 --> 00:23:46,520 Speaker 1: today in the Favorites, like you're just gonna have to 398 00:23:46,560 --> 00:23:48,240 Speaker 1: take the packers. You're gonna have to hold your nose, 399 00:23:48,600 --> 00:23:52,000 Speaker 1: take the packers because that's where the value is. Everybody 400 00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:57,320 Speaker 1: has something that drives them crazy, right and you know, 401 00:23:57,520 --> 00:24:00,159 Speaker 1: like I could never date a woman that was a 402 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:02,040 Speaker 1: chain smoker, Like it just I can't do it. I 403 00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:05,399 Speaker 1: couldn't do those smoke. That's not a personality quirk. The 404 00:24:05,480 --> 00:24:08,560 Speaker 1: only personality quirk with guys that is a non starter 405 00:24:08,680 --> 00:24:14,560 Speaker 1: for me is needy or high maintenance guys. I can't 406 00:24:14,560 --> 00:24:17,840 Speaker 1: do it. You're a grown up. I can't. I'm not 407 00:24:17,920 --> 00:24:20,600 Speaker 1: here get a therapist. Like if you have a crisis, 408 00:24:20,640 --> 00:24:22,840 Speaker 1: I'm there for you, but you can't have one a week. 409 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:28,000 Speaker 1: Can we be honest about this. Aaron Rodgers is really 410 00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:33,040 Speaker 1: high maintenance. Jesus. Every week it's something. So this brings 411 00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:38,960 Speaker 1: it all together. Aaron Rodgers. The year began, they said 412 00:24:39,119 --> 00:24:44,680 Speaker 1: the media asked him, are you vaccinated? He said, I'm immunized. 413 00:24:45,800 --> 00:24:51,120 Speaker 1: Nobody pushed him on it, Nobody said are you vaccinated? 414 00:24:51,960 --> 00:24:54,520 Speaker 1: They just sort of let it go to this day. 415 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,919 Speaker 1: Is he vaccinated? Is he not vaccinated? What does it 416 00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:02,119 Speaker 1: mean to be immunized? I feel like that's a singular 417 00:25:02,240 --> 00:25:06,960 Speaker 1: question that got pushed under the rug because he felt 418 00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:10,040 Speaker 1: like he could play everybody, and nobody pushed him on it. 419 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:12,920 Speaker 1: And now we're looking at Aaron Rodgers, who's going to 420 00:25:12,960 --> 00:25:15,600 Speaker 1: be out for at least one game, possibly two games, 421 00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:19,439 Speaker 1: impacting his team, impacting people who bet the Packers to 422 00:25:19,520 --> 00:25:22,080 Speaker 1: have the best record, impacting people who bet the Packers 423 00:25:22,080 --> 00:25:26,720 Speaker 1: to go the NFC title game. There's like major ramifications here. Oh, huge, 424 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:32,040 Speaker 1: no idea? What the real story is there? Well, he 425 00:25:32,119 --> 00:25:35,480 Speaker 1: will come back at the earliest on Saturday before facing 426 00:25:35,480 --> 00:25:40,320 Speaker 1: the Seahawks. That's a tough ask. If they lose to 427 00:25:40,400 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 1: Kansas City and Seattle, this is the heart of their 428 00:25:43,720 --> 00:25:49,280 Speaker 1: toughest portion of their schedule, they could lose home field 429 00:25:49,320 --> 00:25:53,760 Speaker 1: advantage to the Rams, Arizona or Tampa. So I mean, 430 00:25:54,560 --> 00:25:59,240 Speaker 1: forget the momentum that has potentially been punctured, the idea 431 00:25:59,320 --> 00:26:03,320 Speaker 1: that you go from playing at Lambo in January to 432 00:26:03,560 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 1: playing in Tampa, a warm weather team having to go 433 00:26:08,760 --> 00:26:12,199 Speaker 1: Dome teams don't do well in January and Lambo, Arizona, 434 00:26:12,480 --> 00:26:18,360 Speaker 1: Los Angeles. Warm weather teams don't do well in Lambo Tampa. 435 00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:21,360 Speaker 1: You have three warm weather teams or dome teams would 436 00:26:21,400 --> 00:26:26,160 Speaker 1: have played in Lambeau. Are do we understand what happened here? 437 00:26:27,600 --> 00:26:32,080 Speaker 1: This is it's big by the way Dallas, mostly a 438 00:26:32,119 --> 00:26:35,920 Speaker 1: warm weather franchise, plays indoors go up to Lambo, though, 439 00:26:36,040 --> 00:26:40,480 Speaker 1: you couldn't have picked teams outside of maybe Atlanta that 440 00:26:40,560 --> 00:26:45,240 Speaker 1: would be less prepared to the weather disadvantage than they 441 00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:49,679 Speaker 1: possibly we're going to gain selfish, So I want to 442 00:26:49,680 --> 00:26:52,160 Speaker 1: take the Chargers minus one and a half at the Eagles. 443 00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 1: The Eagles are a wildly inconsistent team, whereas the Chargers 444 00:26:57,080 --> 00:27:01,560 Speaker 1: are actually fairly consistent but limited. We look at them 445 00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:03,440 Speaker 1: and we think, how they lost to the Cowboys, that's 446 00:27:03,480 --> 00:27:05,720 Speaker 1: pretty good team. Well else the Patriots, well that's a 447 00:27:05,720 --> 00:27:09,080 Speaker 1: pretty good team. I think the Chargers are a more 448 00:27:09,119 --> 00:27:13,119 Speaker 1: talented team, but they're a flawed team. I don't think Philadelphia. 449 00:27:13,240 --> 00:27:16,480 Speaker 1: One of the things to know about Philadelphia, opposing quarterbacks 450 00:27:17,119 --> 00:27:22,800 Speaker 1: are having really good Sundays and Thursdays and Mondays a 451 00:27:22,920 --> 00:27:25,800 Speaker 1: passer rating. One of the highest passer ratings in the 452 00:27:25,880 --> 00:27:30,680 Speaker 1: league are quarterbacks facing Philadelphia. So I think the Chargers 453 00:27:30,720 --> 00:27:33,080 Speaker 1: minus one and a half off a disappointing loss. Is 454 00:27:33,080 --> 00:27:36,639 Speaker 1: the play here, sharper square. I would have said sharp, 455 00:27:37,600 --> 00:27:45,159 Speaker 1: except there were some reports yesterday that Justin Herbert's hand 456 00:27:45,520 --> 00:27:51,399 Speaker 1: is injured. There were more reports today from inside the 457 00:27:51,960 --> 00:27:57,879 Speaker 1: wise Guy Whisper network that the injury is potentially more 458 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:02,639 Speaker 1: debilitating than is being reported, and so a lot of 459 00:28:02,680 --> 00:28:07,400 Speaker 1: wise guys started betting on the Eagles. Today the line 460 00:28:07,400 --> 00:28:10,720 Speaker 1: had gotten up to two and a half, and by 461 00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:14,240 Speaker 1: mid day it had been bet down to two. I'm 462 00:28:14,280 --> 00:28:17,000 Speaker 1: looking right now it's still and there are some places 463 00:28:17,040 --> 00:28:19,280 Speaker 1: now where it's down to one and a half. So 464 00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:23,040 Speaker 1: you're starting to see, even though there is a preponderance 465 00:28:23,080 --> 00:28:25,560 Speaker 1: of bets on the Chargers, almost eighty percent of the 466 00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:27,920 Speaker 1: bets are on the Chargers, you're seeing the line move 467 00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:32,200 Speaker 1: in the other direction. That tells me that the wise 468 00:28:32,240 --> 00:28:35,160 Speaker 1: guys are coming in on the Eagles, and that could 469 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:39,520 Speaker 1: be because there's some speculation or concern about Justin Herbert's hand. 470 00:28:40,760 --> 00:28:43,000 Speaker 1: All right, what's the game? I haven't mentioned that you 471 00:28:43,080 --> 00:28:46,480 Speaker 1: have a strong feel for. That's always a fun one, right. 472 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:49,320 Speaker 1: We talked about the Browns, we talked about the Chargers, Panthers, 473 00:28:49,320 --> 00:28:56,560 Speaker 1: Falcons San Francisco forty niners. How have we not talked 474 00:28:56,560 --> 00:28:59,520 Speaker 1: about the San Francisco forty nine ers. You know I 475 00:28:59,600 --> 00:29:03,520 Speaker 1: love Shanahan. I know you think highly of Kyle Shanahan 476 00:29:03,880 --> 00:29:07,560 Speaker 1: as a coach. Right now, the Arizona Cardinals still the 477 00:29:07,560 --> 00:29:09,840 Speaker 1: team that everyone thinks is the one to beat. But 478 00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:15,200 Speaker 1: don't forget, like Cliff Kingsbury as a coach generally falls 479 00:29:15,280 --> 00:29:18,959 Speaker 1: off the freaking cliff when it comes to November. He 480 00:29:19,000 --> 00:29:21,520 Speaker 1: did it when he had Patrick Mahomes as his coach 481 00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:24,280 Speaker 1: at Texas Tech. So now, all of a sudden, you've 482 00:29:24,320 --> 00:29:28,520 Speaker 1: got a Cardinals team where you've got DeAndre Hopkins who 483 00:29:29,520 --> 00:29:34,320 Speaker 1: is nursing a hamstring injury. You've got aj Green who's 484 00:29:34,320 --> 00:29:37,200 Speaker 1: in the COVID protocols. You've got Kyle Murray who's walking 485 00:29:37,200 --> 00:29:40,760 Speaker 1: around in a walking boot and has not practiced, has 486 00:29:40,760 --> 00:29:44,360 Speaker 1: not practiced. You've got George Kittle coming back. You've got 487 00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:47,080 Speaker 1: the forty nine ers as healthy as they have been 488 00:29:47,320 --> 00:29:51,040 Speaker 1: all season. You've got an Arizona run defense that is 489 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:53,680 Speaker 1: second worse than the NFL on yards per rush at 490 00:29:53,720 --> 00:29:56,720 Speaker 1: four point nine. JJ Watt was their best rush defender. 491 00:29:56,960 --> 00:30:02,320 Speaker 1: He's done this line and one it's been bet up 492 00:30:02,320 --> 00:30:05,080 Speaker 1: to one and a half. It's now in some places 493 00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:11,400 Speaker 1: the Niners are two point favorites and all of the 494 00:30:11,480 --> 00:30:14,400 Speaker 1: bets are coming in and the Cardinals. That tells you 495 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:18,320 Speaker 1: that the Niners are the right side from a sharp perspective. 496 00:30:18,800 --> 00:30:21,760 Speaker 1: For all the reasons I just listed. Now, you know 497 00:30:21,840 --> 00:30:24,400 Speaker 1: I don't like big favorites. But I took the Buccaneers 498 00:30:24,400 --> 00:30:26,600 Speaker 1: against the Bears. I was right. I took the Bills 499 00:30:26,640 --> 00:30:30,720 Speaker 1: against the Dolphins. I was right, albeit barely. The one 500 00:30:30,880 --> 00:30:33,920 Speaker 1: big number I was interested in this week is Dallas 501 00:30:33,960 --> 00:30:37,240 Speaker 1: minus nine and a half hosting Denver. Denver makes a 502 00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,840 Speaker 1: big trade. I think that has a negative effect on 503 00:30:39,840 --> 00:30:42,959 Speaker 1: the locker room. When the Texans moved off mark Ingram, 504 00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 1: Look how bad the Texans looked against the Rams. Part 505 00:30:47,040 --> 00:30:52,520 Speaker 1: of me thinks that von Miller move is a season's done. 506 00:30:53,400 --> 00:30:55,840 Speaker 1: I would take Dallas here minus nine and a half. 507 00:30:56,120 --> 00:30:58,680 Speaker 1: I know it's a big number, but I still think 508 00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,160 Speaker 1: they're under value to teams in the NFL. Last twenty 509 00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:05,960 Speaker 1: bets Chiefs or five and fifteen against the spread. They're overvalued. 510 00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:09,520 Speaker 1: We can't unsee their spectacular nature the last two years. 511 00:31:10,200 --> 00:31:13,400 Speaker 1: We also can't unsee Dallas disappointing us for fifteen to 512 00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,080 Speaker 1: twenty years, they've hit what are they seven and all 513 00:31:16,080 --> 00:31:19,560 Speaker 1: against the spread? I think Dallas blows them out. That's 514 00:31:19,640 --> 00:31:25,160 Speaker 1: probably the big game. I'd go with Sharper square. It's 515 00:31:25,200 --> 00:31:29,080 Speaker 1: really hard to get Sharps behind a big number. It's 516 00:31:29,120 --> 00:31:32,600 Speaker 1: really hard to get Sharps behind a Dallas Cowboys team 517 00:31:33,040 --> 00:31:36,240 Speaker 1: that has yet to lose against the spread. And by 518 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 1: the way, they didn't lose against the spread. When they 519 00:31:40,040 --> 00:31:43,720 Speaker 1: went from being about two and a half point favorites 520 00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:48,520 Speaker 1: to being three point underdocks like, they still covered against 521 00:31:48,520 --> 00:31:52,000 Speaker 1: the spread. This is a great staff for you. Since 522 00:31:52,360 --> 00:31:58,160 Speaker 1: nineteen ninety, there have been two teams that have started 523 00:31:58,720 --> 00:32:03,440 Speaker 1: the season eight no against the spread two thousand and seven, 524 00:32:03,520 --> 00:32:08,040 Speaker 1: New England Patriots twenty twenty one, Dallas Cowboys eight and no. 525 00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:12,040 Speaker 1: Kansas City twenty eighteen went seven or no. Tennessee two 526 00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:15,000 Speaker 1: thousand and eight went seven or no. So you have 527 00:32:15,040 --> 00:32:19,560 Speaker 1: to ask yourself, does Dallas continue to have these sort 528 00:32:19,600 --> 00:32:23,240 Speaker 1: of opportunistic moments or is there an aggression to the mean? 529 00:32:23,600 --> 00:32:27,080 Speaker 1: And really is there a regression on them continuing to 530 00:32:27,080 --> 00:32:30,560 Speaker 1: cover against the spread. If you're a good team, the 531 00:32:30,640 --> 00:32:33,720 Speaker 1: expectation as you go like ten and six this year, 532 00:32:33,800 --> 00:32:37,320 Speaker 1: eleven and six against the spread. The Cowboys are trending 533 00:32:37,360 --> 00:32:39,040 Speaker 1: so high against the spread that you almost have to 534 00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:41,840 Speaker 1: start bending against them just because there's going to be 535 00:32:41,920 --> 00:32:45,320 Speaker 1: that kind of regression. I know, but it's a different year. 536 00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:50,520 Speaker 1: It's a totally different year, and it's just these guys. 537 00:32:50,600 --> 00:32:54,440 Speaker 1: It's target practice out there for quarterbacks and receivers, and 538 00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:58,160 Speaker 1: the Cowboys actually are playing incredibly well on defense, and 539 00:32:58,200 --> 00:33:02,160 Speaker 1: so from a sort of chase the ball perspective, right 540 00:33:02,200 --> 00:33:05,920 Speaker 1: from a creating turnover's perspective, and even then, the Broncos 541 00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:11,239 Speaker 1: have been a nimic offensively, So I can't hate on it. 542 00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:17,320 Speaker 1: I'm just saying it's not like a sharp play that 543 00:33:17,360 --> 00:33:20,800 Speaker 1: was pretty good. These are fan duel numbers. By the way, 544 00:33:20,960 --> 00:33:22,560 Speaker 1: Am I supposed to say that or not? I don't 545 00:33:22,600 --> 00:33:25,440 Speaker 1: even know. I really don't know. Sometimes we got I 546 00:33:25,440 --> 00:33:27,120 Speaker 1: got got a lot of people, a lot of mouse 547 00:33:27,120 --> 00:33:33,280 Speaker 1: to feed. You do you do? That's what happens, you know? Today? Though, 548 00:33:33,440 --> 00:33:36,360 Speaker 1: I went, I got home, I worked out, and I 549 00:33:36,400 --> 00:33:39,280 Speaker 1: went and bought a dozen cigars. And I do this 550 00:33:39,320 --> 00:33:42,800 Speaker 1: about once a week, and I make myself once a 551 00:33:42,840 --> 00:33:48,240 Speaker 1: week smoke a cigar, contemplate life, and it'd be grateful 552 00:33:48,720 --> 00:33:52,080 Speaker 1: for my life. And it was today as I said 553 00:33:52,080 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 1: to myself, you had a winning blazing five week. Things 554 00:33:55,840 --> 00:34:00,800 Speaker 1: are going well, the stock markets up, and so I'm 555 00:34:00,920 --> 00:34:04,320 Speaker 1: very grateful. I will be more grateful if I have 556 00:34:04,400 --> 00:34:08,000 Speaker 1: another winning week on blazing five. But I got to 557 00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,680 Speaker 1: be honest with you right now. Despite the fact that 558 00:34:10,719 --> 00:34:15,719 Speaker 1: your son broke his leg in a weird way, that 559 00:34:15,800 --> 00:34:18,400 Speaker 1: means he may not have as much fun as a 560 00:34:18,400 --> 00:34:22,719 Speaker 1: freshman in college and you could be Actually the positive 561 00:34:22,719 --> 00:34:24,600 Speaker 1: spin on this is you may have gotten him out 562 00:34:24,600 --> 00:34:27,640 Speaker 1: of trouble. Listen, I don't know if it was possible 563 00:34:27,680 --> 00:34:29,919 Speaker 1: for anybody to be having more fun. I feel so 564 00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,640 Speaker 1: bad for the kid that like he's being taken out 565 00:34:32,680 --> 00:34:35,040 Speaker 1: of his social life for the next four or six, 566 00:34:35,160 --> 00:34:39,520 Speaker 1: eight weeks, whatever it is. But my question is, don't 567 00:34:39,520 --> 00:34:42,239 Speaker 1: you say to yourself every day how grateful you are? 568 00:34:42,480 --> 00:34:45,200 Speaker 1: Like today today I had to go to the doctor's office, 569 00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:47,959 Speaker 1: right and I had an appointment and she was taking 570 00:34:48,000 --> 00:34:52,120 Speaker 1: my blood pressure and she said, how you doing. I said, 571 00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:55,520 Speaker 1: I'm great, and like she goes, I go, how you doing? 572 00:34:55,600 --> 00:34:59,080 Speaker 1: She goes, I got a job, my car started. I 573 00:34:59,120 --> 00:35:01,960 Speaker 1: got a house. I'm like, it doesn't take that much 574 00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:04,640 Speaker 1: to be happy, Like, how could you not be grateful 575 00:35:04,680 --> 00:35:07,080 Speaker 1: every day? You should you should be doing this at 576 00:35:07,160 --> 00:35:09,840 Speaker 1: least once a day, not once a week. Well, it's funny. 577 00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:13,200 Speaker 1: This is you know, I've said this before. The media 578 00:35:13,280 --> 00:35:18,320 Speaker 1: covers plane crashes, not plane landings. So the media by 579 00:35:18,360 --> 00:35:23,440 Speaker 1: and large is pursuing and seeking bad news. Yep. And 580 00:35:23,520 --> 00:35:25,759 Speaker 1: I do think it's important. Sometimes I just shut my 581 00:35:25,760 --> 00:35:28,759 Speaker 1: phone off because and at the media is nobody cares 582 00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:32,320 Speaker 1: about plane landings. So I do think there is value 583 00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:37,600 Speaker 1: sometimes turning off the news and social media, and it 584 00:35:37,640 --> 00:35:39,680 Speaker 1: does make me happier. You ever lose your phone for 585 00:35:39,719 --> 00:35:44,520 Speaker 1: like six hours and you're like, oh, life was fine. 586 00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:47,840 Speaker 1: I really got through it. I had a cupcake, I napped, 587 00:35:47,880 --> 00:35:50,920 Speaker 1: and it's like, you know, I didn't look at Drudge 588 00:35:50,920 --> 00:35:53,840 Speaker 1: Report for six hours or Huffington Post. I'm good. Listen, 589 00:35:54,320 --> 00:35:56,800 Speaker 1: I could get I could go for hours on how 590 00:35:57,040 --> 00:36:01,400 Speaker 1: irresponsible I feel like the headlines have been. And I 591 00:36:01,440 --> 00:36:05,480 Speaker 1: am not a media basher in any way, but I 592 00:36:05,520 --> 00:36:09,640 Speaker 1: do think the coverage of COVID, the coverage of politics, 593 00:36:10,120 --> 00:36:14,920 Speaker 1: the coverage of just about anything that is not hard 594 00:36:15,040 --> 00:36:18,759 Speaker 1: news that isn't something that is a fact that is 595 00:36:18,840 --> 00:36:22,920 Speaker 1: verifiable and proven, right. But the way things are perceived 596 00:36:22,920 --> 00:36:26,640 Speaker 1: about COVID, the way things are perceived about politics. You 597 00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:31,400 Speaker 1: read a headline, it is specifically designed to incite you, 598 00:36:31,719 --> 00:36:33,640 Speaker 1: and I don't care if it's in the New York 599 00:36:33,640 --> 00:36:37,160 Speaker 1: Times or Fox News. They're both guilty of it, and 600 00:36:37,239 --> 00:36:39,920 Speaker 1: they both do it, and they both play to their audiences. 601 00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:42,520 Speaker 1: And I know they can say we're fair and balanced. 602 00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:44,879 Speaker 1: I know they can say, you know, that's not how 603 00:36:44,920 --> 00:36:47,040 Speaker 1: we play it. But you read the headline and then 604 00:36:47,040 --> 00:36:50,359 Speaker 1: you read the story, and that's what happens, and it's 605 00:36:50,560 --> 00:36:54,640 Speaker 1: it's astonishing to the point where I can't even read 606 00:36:54,640 --> 00:36:59,440 Speaker 1: the news anymore because it's so frustrating to see them 607 00:37:01,000 --> 00:37:03,600 Speaker 1: how everything is framed. All right, Buddy, good seeing you 608 00:37:03,600 --> 00:37:10,320 Speaker 1: see your brother. That's Chad Milman at the Volume Sports. 609 00:37:10,480 --> 00:37:13,520 Speaker 1: Please go to our YouTube page and subscribe. We really 610 00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:15,600 Speaker 1: appreciate it if you subscribe. There's a lot of good 611 00:37:15,600 --> 00:37:20,799 Speaker 1: stuff on there. Also Instagram, rate reviews, subscribe, follow us 612 00:37:20,840 --> 00:37:23,200 Speaker 1: on Twitter or two. I want to thank everybody who 613 00:37:23,239 --> 00:37:30,640 Speaker 1: supports The Volume, Jay Boy Jenkins and Jones, Chris Mannix, 614 00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:35,040 Speaker 1: John middlecough All, had record months. You don't care about that. 615 00:37:35,120 --> 00:37:38,799 Speaker 1: I do, but I do appreciate you following us. I 616 00:37:38,840 --> 00:37:41,840 Speaker 1: gotta tell you something. I'm gonna sleep on that Bengals 617 00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:46,399 Speaker 1: Brown's pick. I'm gonna sleep on that. I really love 618 00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:48,799 Speaker 1: the Bengals, and I think Milman just talked me out 619 00:37:48,840 --> 00:37:52,000 Speaker 1: of it. Gotta hate when he does that. Fuck soon 620 00:38:06,680 --> 00:38:07,360 Speaker 1: the volume