1 00:00:00,280 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: The Big Bets on Campus Podcast podcast. 2 00:00:04,160 --> 00:00:05,720 Speaker 2: PODCA All right, here we go. 3 00:00:11,440 --> 00:00:12,200 Speaker 1: Right in the corner. 4 00:00:12,760 --> 00:00:15,640 Speaker 3: Then seconds of as so it just goes through un 5 00:00:15,720 --> 00:00:17,120 Speaker 3: the basket, under the basket. 6 00:00:17,400 --> 00:00:25,119 Speaker 1: That's the true for the wind God Racle, I just water. 7 00:00:26,400 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 3: That one from the parking lot. 8 00:00:30,600 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 2: What's up the generation? Welcome to the Big Bets on 9 00:00:32,520 --> 00:00:37,480 Speaker 2: Campus Podcast. This is the College Basketball NCAA Tournament Sweet 10 00:00:37,479 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 2: sixteen betting Preview Part two covering Friday games today. I'm 11 00:00:42,800 --> 00:00:47,160 Speaker 2: stucky in joining me or my fellow BBOC co host 12 00:00:47,680 --> 00:00:51,120 Speaker 2: Mike Calibreese, and the one and only Josh Non aka Duck. 13 00:00:52,000 --> 00:00:56,560 Speaker 2: We will go through each of the games on Friday. Myself, 14 00:00:57,240 --> 00:01:01,080 Speaker 2: Christian and Greg took care of Thursday days slate. That 15 00:01:01,160 --> 00:01:05,360 Speaker 2: episode is already out, so make sure you check that out. 16 00:01:05,360 --> 00:01:09,720 Speaker 2: Really fun episode. Mike and Doc also had a Sweet 17 00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:13,880 Speaker 2: sixth first weekend recap episode Early look at Sweet sixteen. 18 00:01:13,920 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 2: If you haven't checked that out, make sure you listen 19 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:22,000 Speaker 2: to that on the feed as well. Gentlemen, let's dive 20 00:01:22,040 --> 00:01:25,560 Speaker 2: right in. If you before we get into it, do 21 00:01:25,600 --> 00:01:28,880 Speaker 2: you have one future that you really want to hit? 22 00:01:29,040 --> 00:01:29,360 Speaker 4: Left? 23 00:01:30,200 --> 00:01:31,400 Speaker 2: Anything? You got anything? Doc? 24 00:01:32,080 --> 00:01:34,360 Speaker 3: I mean, I'm long on Houston I've got some Houston 25 00:01:34,400 --> 00:01:37,000 Speaker 3: futures that are pretty juicy. I took a Purdue future 26 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:40,680 Speaker 3: before the tournament started. I think that they have a 27 00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:41,720 Speaker 3: path to get to. 28 00:01:41,680 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 1: The final four. 29 00:01:43,240 --> 00:01:47,760 Speaker 3: So it's really those two Tennessee. I wouldn't be surprised 30 00:01:47,800 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 3: with the way they rebound the ball and the second 31 00:01:50,440 --> 00:01:53,080 Speaker 3: chance opportunities that they proke here. I wouldn't be surprised 32 00:01:53,080 --> 00:01:55,360 Speaker 3: to see them continue to be in close games late 33 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 3: and so I think the Volunteers can continue winning. But 34 00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:01,960 Speaker 3: as far as futures I hold in pocket, Houston and 35 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,000 Speaker 3: Purdue are the two teams I'm rooting hard for. 36 00:02:05,440 --> 00:02:10,000 Speaker 2: Yeah, I have Purdue final four futures, Tennessee final four futures, 37 00:02:10,360 --> 00:02:18,200 Speaker 2: and Illinois final four futures. I sadly Vandy went down 38 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,919 Speaker 2: in a road game because the bracket really broke right 39 00:02:22,080 --> 00:02:26,280 Speaker 2: after that game. But rip to Tyler Tanner and company. 40 00:02:26,280 --> 00:02:26,639 Speaker 2: How about you. 41 00:02:26,720 --> 00:02:30,440 Speaker 1: Calvary's seventeen to one on Houston, and I actually think 42 00:02:30,560 --> 00:02:33,320 Speaker 1: the hedge opportunity lines up perfect. I'm gonna take Illinois 43 00:02:33,320 --> 00:02:35,519 Speaker 1: plus three and a half. I think it is their 44 00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,760 Speaker 1: most difficult game unless they get to the national title game. 45 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: I feel good about them in every other matchup. This 46 00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:44,440 Speaker 1: Illinois team obviously can shoot the lights out things who 47 00:02:44,480 --> 00:02:48,040 Speaker 1: go south and Houston could essentially dig themselves like a 48 00:02:48,080 --> 00:02:49,920 Speaker 1: six to eight point hole, and I don't feel great 49 00:02:49,919 --> 00:02:52,240 Speaker 1: with them keeping pace. But there is a way for 50 00:02:52,280 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: me both to hit Illinois plus the points and Houston 51 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,919 Speaker 1: to continue on. As you mentioned, in that region, the 52 00:02:57,960 --> 00:02:59,520 Speaker 1: bracket kind of broke right for them if they can 53 00:02:59,520 --> 00:03:03,400 Speaker 1: get to the And also just from a pure entertainment standpoint, 54 00:03:03,480 --> 00:03:06,280 Speaker 1: like we are just absolutely spoiled here in the Sweet sixteen. 55 00:03:06,320 --> 00:03:08,120 Speaker 1: There are so many good games. I can't wait to 56 00:03:08,120 --> 00:03:09,480 Speaker 1: talk about all of them. We talked about some of 57 00:03:09,560 --> 00:03:12,280 Speaker 1: them on the recap show on Sunday night. This is 58 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:16,520 Speaker 1: our reward for losing the Cinderellas. You know, be sad 59 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:18,600 Speaker 1: about it, say that it's a sign of the times, 60 00:03:18,639 --> 00:03:21,200 Speaker 1: and that Cinderella's will never live again. That whole narrative 61 00:03:21,200 --> 00:03:23,360 Speaker 1: can wait until next year. Now, it's just time to enjoy. 62 00:03:23,760 --> 00:03:28,760 Speaker 1: I believe thirty like of the Sweet sixteen, the Ken Palm, 63 00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,280 Speaker 1: Top thirteen or fourteen are all involved, Like this is 64 00:03:31,320 --> 00:03:33,079 Speaker 1: one of the strongest Sweet sixteens ever. So let's just 65 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:33,720 Speaker 1: enjoy what we. 66 00:03:33,720 --> 00:03:38,200 Speaker 2: Have, all right, Let's get into those games, some great, 67 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:43,400 Speaker 2: great coaching matchups. I mean, look no further than the 68 00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:51,520 Speaker 2: games in DC. I mean we have Izzo, Hurley, Patino, 69 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:55,560 Speaker 2: and Shire. I mean, doesn't get much better than that. 70 00:03:55,640 --> 00:04:00,280 Speaker 2: Let's start there. Seven to ten Eastern on Friday night 71 00:04:00,400 --> 00:04:03,480 Speaker 2: in Washington, d C. Duke will take on Saint John's. 72 00:04:03,520 --> 00:04:05,440 Speaker 2: Duke is a six and a half point favorite total 73 00:04:06,160 --> 00:04:11,360 Speaker 2: sitting around one forty two ish. I will not Duke 74 00:04:11,440 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 2: did play in Capitol one Arena already this year against Michigan. 75 00:04:15,240 --> 00:04:20,119 Speaker 2: Maybe a tad bit of familiarity edge there, But with Duke, 76 00:04:20,279 --> 00:04:25,200 Speaker 2: you do have to mention injuries. What is their roster 77 00:04:25,279 --> 00:04:29,039 Speaker 2: going to look like? Gungba returned, He's just massive for 78 00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:31,919 Speaker 2: everything they want to do, especially on the defensive end 79 00:04:31,960 --> 00:04:35,039 Speaker 2: of the floor. Gives them so much more versatility, makes 80 00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,360 Speaker 2: their rim defense that much more league, which is important 81 00:04:37,360 --> 00:04:38,360 Speaker 2: Against Saint John's. 82 00:04:39,600 --> 00:04:41,080 Speaker 1: He was very rusty. 83 00:04:40,760 --> 00:04:46,040 Speaker 2: Early on, so you know, get an extra almost week here. 84 00:04:46,360 --> 00:04:48,800 Speaker 2: How much better does he look? How many more minutes 85 00:04:48,839 --> 00:04:53,720 Speaker 2: can he log? And then there's rumors about Foster potentially returning. 86 00:04:54,200 --> 00:04:56,800 Speaker 2: I don't know how much validity there is to that, 87 00:04:56,920 --> 00:05:00,240 Speaker 2: but getting Caleb Foster back would be massive just to have, 88 00:05:01,000 --> 00:05:04,960 Speaker 2: especially against this pressure. Saint John's they really decreased their 89 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:06,760 Speaker 2: press rates in the biggiest tournament towards the end of 90 00:05:06,760 --> 00:05:09,599 Speaker 2: the year, and then Patino's up them since in the 91 00:05:09,640 --> 00:05:12,760 Speaker 2: tournament they pressed twenty times against U and I fifteen 92 00:05:12,839 --> 00:05:15,040 Speaker 2: times against Kansas after going five to nine, eight and 93 00:05:15,120 --> 00:05:19,159 Speaker 2: six in the four games prior Duke had doesn't see 94 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:21,320 Speaker 2: a ton of press right, always see it against NC 95 00:05:21,440 --> 00:05:25,120 Speaker 2: State's horrendous defense, but they've really struggled against the Virginia 96 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:27,279 Speaker 2: press and the acc At tourney they scored point eight 97 00:05:27,320 --> 00:05:30,600 Speaker 2: two points per possession, which is very bad. If you 98 00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:34,600 Speaker 2: were like against the press, that would be like two 99 00:05:34,680 --> 00:05:38,520 Speaker 2: hundred and ninetieth ish three hundredth in the country. And 100 00:05:38,560 --> 00:05:41,680 Speaker 2: they didn't have Foster for that game, so like not 101 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:45,360 Speaker 2: having Foster having the ball in Cayden Boozer's hands against 102 00:05:45,360 --> 00:05:50,240 Speaker 2: the pressure, that could lead to some struggles. But it's 103 00:05:50,240 --> 00:05:51,760 Speaker 2: hard to see. And that was in what they got 104 00:05:51,760 --> 00:05:54,080 Speaker 2: pressed twenty eight times against Virginia in that game. I 105 00:05:54,120 --> 00:05:56,560 Speaker 2: would assume Tina's probably gonna up the press right here, 106 00:05:57,279 --> 00:06:00,599 Speaker 2: try to take Duke out of their offense. Got a 107 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:02,920 Speaker 2: lot of there's going to be a very good rim battle, 108 00:06:02,920 --> 00:06:05,400 Speaker 2: but it's hard to score on Duke. In transition, It's 109 00:06:05,400 --> 00:06:09,080 Speaker 2: hard to score against at the rim. Against the Blue Devils, 110 00:06:09,920 --> 00:06:12,480 Speaker 2: you really do need to make shots against Duke unless 111 00:06:12,480 --> 00:06:14,479 Speaker 2: they're going to be turning Duke over, which can be 112 00:06:14,480 --> 00:06:17,560 Speaker 2: a problematimes. We saw that with TCU. Saint John's is 113 00:06:17,560 --> 00:06:19,800 Speaker 2: going to have to make some shots and that can 114 00:06:19,839 --> 00:06:25,200 Speaker 2: be a very hit or miss proposition. I mean, maybe 115 00:06:25,240 --> 00:06:28,480 Speaker 2: Bryce Hopkins now is a deadly three point shooter. Not 116 00:06:28,520 --> 00:06:30,360 Speaker 2: sure if he can keep that up, but they could 117 00:06:30,440 --> 00:06:35,000 Speaker 2: use some outside buckets from him. I'm ultimately I'm close 118 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:37,800 Speaker 2: to the market here and I just was given the 119 00:06:37,920 --> 00:06:40,600 Speaker 2: injury uncertainty with Duke. I don't have anything yet on 120 00:06:40,640 --> 00:06:43,839 Speaker 2: this game, Calgary's what are you seeing here? Duke Johnny's. 121 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,120 Speaker 1: So let's start with injuries. As you mentioned, Gangba, I'm 122 00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:49,159 Speaker 1: gonna chalk up the first performance to rust. He had 123 00:06:49,200 --> 00:06:52,440 Speaker 1: as many points and rebounds as he did fouls and turnovers, 124 00:06:52,440 --> 00:06:55,120 Speaker 1: but that was to be expected. But the foster element, 125 00:06:55,200 --> 00:06:58,719 Speaker 1: let's really focus in here. If he comes back and plays, 126 00:06:58,839 --> 00:07:02,520 Speaker 1: it's a full month ahead of the shortest recovery time 127 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:06,040 Speaker 1: for foot surgery with an injury like this, So I think. 128 00:07:05,880 --> 00:07:08,440 Speaker 2: There was any chance to be back this weekend. 129 00:07:08,480 --> 00:07:11,040 Speaker 1: Right, I think it's just full gamesmanship, just to like 130 00:07:11,120 --> 00:07:13,480 Speaker 1: leave the door open, leak it to John Rostein, you know, 131 00:07:13,520 --> 00:07:15,720 Speaker 1: put it out there. At least put it, you know, 132 00:07:15,800 --> 00:07:18,240 Speaker 1: steal a little bit of time from Patino's assistance on 133 00:07:18,280 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: the defensive end to say, what do we have to 134 00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: do if Foster plays. I don't think it's a real possibility. 135 00:07:22,680 --> 00:07:25,120 Speaker 1: And when you drill down into what they have been 136 00:07:25,280 --> 00:07:29,640 Speaker 1: without Foster on the floor, the biggest issue for me is, 137 00:07:30,040 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: you know, their offensive efficiency slipped from sixth overall to 138 00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:36,360 Speaker 1: thirtieth without Foster running the show. And then when you 139 00:07:36,400 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 1: get into the ball handlers. Duck and I talked about 140 00:07:39,200 --> 00:07:42,160 Speaker 1: this on Sunday Night. Booster kind of slides into that 141 00:07:42,240 --> 00:07:45,200 Speaker 1: initiator at times, the same way Cooper Flagg did at 142 00:07:45,240 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 1: times last year. And while he can still generate, you know, 143 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:50,520 Speaker 1: space for himself and get shots in the paint went 144 00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:53,080 Speaker 1: dribbling from the top of the key, his turnover rate 145 00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:56,040 Speaker 1: has spiked with more usage. He's just like not well 146 00:07:56,120 --> 00:07:58,480 Speaker 1: suited for this role. It went from you know, a 147 00:07:58,600 --> 00:08:00,440 Speaker 1: rarity of him turning it over three times in the 148 00:08:00,480 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: game to his games without Foster on the floor, his 149 00:08:03,800 --> 00:08:06,520 Speaker 1: turnover eight four point four per game, and obviously we 150 00:08:06,600 --> 00:08:09,120 Speaker 1: know this is how the Johnnies have to win. You know, 151 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:11,120 Speaker 1: you look at the game against Kansas and they had 152 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:15,120 Speaker 1: Counsel Junior who's a steady ball handler, and Peterson. They 153 00:08:15,160 --> 00:08:17,800 Speaker 1: still force sixteen turnovers. So I think there's a path 154 00:08:17,840 --> 00:08:20,520 Speaker 1: forward for the Johnnies to create double digit, if not 155 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:23,240 Speaker 1: fifteen turnovers again. And if they do so, then I 156 00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 1: think it'll come down to Zubie and Boozer battling it 157 00:08:25,840 --> 00:08:28,400 Speaker 1: out on the low block. And listen, he didn't shut 158 00:08:28,440 --> 00:08:32,640 Speaker 1: down Terras, Reid or Badunga, but he certainly kept them 159 00:08:32,640 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 1: in check. They didn't have absolute monster games, So I 160 00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:38,120 Speaker 1: think there's an opportunity for him to, you know, and 161 00:08:38,280 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 1: this defensive staff to say, if the other four guys 162 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:42,760 Speaker 1: on the floor beat us, so be it. They still 163 00:08:42,760 --> 00:08:45,320 Speaker 1: have a short bench. I think there's you know, there's 164 00:08:45,320 --> 00:08:47,200 Speaker 1: going to be a little bit of fatigue potentially if 165 00:08:47,240 --> 00:08:49,480 Speaker 1: Boozer has to play thirty eight minutes against a high 166 00:08:49,559 --> 00:08:52,079 Speaker 1: energy defense. So I'm on them on. 167 00:08:52,040 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 2: The money line here. 168 00:08:52,880 --> 00:08:54,959 Speaker 1: I think there's an opportunity if they get enough shots 169 00:08:54,960 --> 00:08:57,440 Speaker 1: from the perimeter to fall to win a very similar 170 00:08:57,480 --> 00:08:59,440 Speaker 1: game to what it took to beat Kansas score in 171 00:08:59,480 --> 00:09:03,320 Speaker 1: the sixties. Really frustrate, you know, the opposing offense, you know, 172 00:09:03,520 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: force them to win with players outside of their star player, 173 00:09:06,480 --> 00:09:08,840 Speaker 1: and just try to win in that second chance, an 174 00:09:08,920 --> 00:09:12,400 Speaker 1: extra chance scoring opportunities. That's been the Johnny's calling card 175 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:14,280 Speaker 1: all year. They top five in the country plus five 176 00:09:14,320 --> 00:09:16,400 Speaker 1: point six when you put in the turnover margin and 177 00:09:16,440 --> 00:09:18,599 Speaker 1: the offensive rebounding margin, I think they're going to be 178 00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,120 Speaker 1: in a similar spot here. I think this is just 179 00:09:21,160 --> 00:09:23,679 Speaker 1: slightly mispriced. This is just a value here. I wouldn't 180 00:09:23,720 --> 00:09:25,880 Speaker 1: put it if I was hanging a number anywhere above 181 00:09:26,120 --> 00:09:28,200 Speaker 1: two to one. It's five to two in the market, 182 00:09:28,280 --> 00:09:30,720 Speaker 1: I'll go sgu Yeah. 183 00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:34,440 Speaker 2: My fear I same times is going to have to 184 00:09:34,440 --> 00:09:37,719 Speaker 2: turn Duke over because it's good part of their all. 185 00:09:37,800 --> 00:09:39,200 Speaker 2: Like their offense, you want to get to the rim. 186 00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:40,559 Speaker 2: They want to get out in position that's going to 187 00:09:40,559 --> 00:09:41,679 Speaker 2: be difficult to do. They want to get on the 188 00:09:41,679 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 2: offensive glass. Dat's gonna be hard to do against Duke, 189 00:09:43,840 --> 00:09:47,079 Speaker 2: especially with Gungla back an elite defensive rebounding team. They 190 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 2: want to get to the line. Duke never fouls, so 191 00:09:50,280 --> 00:09:52,240 Speaker 2: they either have to make some a lot of outside 192 00:09:52,240 --> 00:09:54,559 Speaker 2: shots or they're gonna have to turn Duke over and 193 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:56,560 Speaker 2: that's gonna be a lot easier if Foster is in 194 00:09:56,600 --> 00:09:59,839 Speaker 2: a go or isn't at full strength. I am also 195 00:10:00,160 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 2: looking forward to the coaching, just in game adjustments in 196 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:09,840 Speaker 2: this game that should be just basketball porn. We saw 197 00:10:10,080 --> 00:10:12,040 Speaker 2: I mean, Shire does a tremendous job on both and 198 00:10:12,040 --> 00:10:14,440 Speaker 2: support that. I mean, we saw him go zone against Siena, 199 00:10:14,480 --> 00:10:18,160 Speaker 2: which changed that game. Could see them go zone again 200 00:10:18,160 --> 00:10:21,120 Speaker 2: against Saint John's doesn't profile is a good zone offense, 201 00:10:21,160 --> 00:10:23,560 Speaker 2: but Patina's gonna have some tricks up his sleeve. This 202 00:10:23,559 --> 00:10:28,280 Speaker 2: will be a great in game adjusting watch from start 203 00:10:28,320 --> 00:10:30,480 Speaker 2: to finish. Douck, what he's saying here. 204 00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:33,480 Speaker 3: All that that you just described leads me to like 205 00:10:33,520 --> 00:10:36,080 Speaker 3: the under in this matchup at one forty two. I 206 00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:39,040 Speaker 3: definitely do not want to disregard a Rick Patino coach 207 00:10:39,120 --> 00:10:41,880 Speaker 3: team in the Sweet sixteen with plenty of time to 208 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:45,400 Speaker 3: drop a game plan defensively to limit the effectiveness of 209 00:10:45,440 --> 00:10:47,920 Speaker 3: what Duke wants to do. Zoobie and Dylan Mitchell on 210 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:49,840 Speaker 3: the block, I think they match up pretty well with 211 00:10:49,880 --> 00:10:52,080 Speaker 3: what Boozer wants to do in the paint, and they 212 00:10:52,120 --> 00:10:54,319 Speaker 3: should be able to make it a little bit tougher 213 00:10:54,760 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 3: for him to operate than what other teams were able 214 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:00,880 Speaker 3: to do. We've seen the Johnnies really ran up the 215 00:11:00,920 --> 00:11:04,560 Speaker 3: pressure defensively. The guards are pass ski and it just 216 00:11:04,600 --> 00:11:07,800 Speaker 3: feels like every game Darling and Ian Jackson are forcing 217 00:11:07,880 --> 00:11:11,600 Speaker 3: multiple steals. If it's not Caleb Foster handling the ball. 218 00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:14,040 Speaker 3: I really wonder about what this is going to look 219 00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 3: like for Duke. I think it's probably more of a 220 00:11:17,000 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 3: defensive battle than anticipated. You know, maybe Duke is able 221 00:11:22,360 --> 00:11:24,800 Speaker 3: to force Saint John's into the half court a little 222 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,880 Speaker 3: bit more than anticipated. Their transition defense is pretty good, 223 00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:29,960 Speaker 3: so I think there's a chance that we get this 224 00:11:30,040 --> 00:11:32,800 Speaker 3: game played straight up in the half court, particularly in 225 00:11:32,840 --> 00:11:36,320 Speaker 3: the second half year as the tempo traditionally starts to 226 00:11:36,320 --> 00:11:39,200 Speaker 3: trend to an under tempo. You know, you've got to 227 00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:41,440 Speaker 3: match up here with the best defense in the country 228 00:11:41,520 --> 00:11:44,439 Speaker 3: against the eighth most efficient defense in the country in 229 00:11:44,480 --> 00:11:47,920 Speaker 3: Saint John's. And you mentioned Gongba coming back. Maybe he 230 00:11:47,960 --> 00:11:51,840 Speaker 3: looks a little bit more comfortable defensively in the painted area, 231 00:11:51,960 --> 00:11:55,280 Speaker 3: providing a little more fortitude on defense. You've got two 232 00:11:55,320 --> 00:11:58,480 Speaker 3: exquisite three point defenses, two teams that can avoid sending 233 00:11:58,520 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 3: their opponent to the stripe. 234 00:12:00,480 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: It's just gonna be a game. 235 00:12:01,760 --> 00:12:04,880 Speaker 3: That requires a lot of shot making. And no Saint 236 00:12:05,000 --> 00:12:07,840 Speaker 3: John's games in the NCAA tournament have ever been this 237 00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:10,360 Speaker 3: high scoring under Rick Patino. It's only two years, but 238 00:12:11,280 --> 00:12:15,199 Speaker 3: they trend to be lower scoring tournament games as a team, 239 00:12:16,160 --> 00:12:17,960 Speaker 3: and this is one that I just think is going 240 00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:21,000 Speaker 3: to be a slower pace than projected. You're gonna have 241 00:12:21,080 --> 00:12:23,160 Speaker 3: to have exceptional shot making, and I don't know that 242 00:12:23,200 --> 00:12:26,160 Speaker 3: we see that here against these two elite defenses. 243 00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,160 Speaker 1: I like the under here. Insane stat. By the way, 244 00:12:29,280 --> 00:12:32,400 Speaker 1: Duke has never won a national championship without beating the Johnnies, 245 00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:35,360 Speaker 1: either in the regular season or in the NCAA tournament. 246 00:12:35,480 --> 00:12:37,480 Speaker 1: So we'll see if it's, you know, the sixth time 247 00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:39,600 Speaker 1: that they do on their way and say they get 248 00:12:39,600 --> 00:12:41,920 Speaker 1: Foster back for the final four and things are different. 249 00:12:41,960 --> 00:12:45,040 Speaker 1: But just an interesting factoid that got thrown out there. 250 00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 2: I love this route. I used to love these games 251 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:51,800 Speaker 2: in the early two thousands. All right, let's move on 252 00:12:51,880 --> 00:12:55,080 Speaker 2: to the other early game. It's Head of the United 253 00:12:55,160 --> 00:12:59,560 Speaker 2: Center in Chicago for Michigan. Alabama Michigan the top seed 254 00:13:00,040 --> 00:13:04,640 Speaker 2: taking on four seed Crimson Tide Michigan sitting around. It's 255 00:13:04,640 --> 00:13:09,240 Speaker 2: called consensus ten point favorite. Here total sky high one 256 00:13:09,400 --> 00:13:11,640 Speaker 2: seventy five. This is the largest spread and the largest 257 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:16,960 Speaker 2: total of all eight Sweet Sixteen games. I have a 258 00:13:17,679 --> 00:13:19,600 Speaker 2: very strong opinions on the final two games. I don't 259 00:13:19,640 --> 00:13:22,840 Speaker 2: have two strong opinions on these two early games, so 260 00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:26,800 Speaker 2: I'll lean on you guys. I will say, look, Alabama, 261 00:13:27,640 --> 00:13:30,040 Speaker 2: maybe maybe there's an argument to be made without Holloway. 262 00:13:30,040 --> 00:13:32,360 Speaker 2: They're a little tougher more physically, get the ball in 263 00:13:32,440 --> 00:13:35,800 Speaker 2: Filon's hands more. They're maybe a little bit better of 264 00:13:35,880 --> 00:13:39,280 Speaker 2: a rebounding team, which is going to be important because 265 00:13:39,280 --> 00:13:42,120 Speaker 2: their shot volume just clowns. They came with a negative 266 00:13:42,120 --> 00:13:45,000 Speaker 2: turnover margin, negative rebound differential. You never see those teams 267 00:13:45,040 --> 00:13:47,839 Speaker 2: make a run. They're probably going to get crushed though, 268 00:13:47,880 --> 00:13:51,079 Speaker 2: on the glass against Michigan. They're probably going to get 269 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:53,920 Speaker 2: crushed inside. They're not a great transition defense, which isn't 270 00:13:53,920 --> 00:13:57,600 Speaker 2: great against Michigan. So it's hard for me to see 271 00:13:57,640 --> 00:14:00,559 Speaker 2: Alabama winning this game. Unless look are number one and 272 00:14:00,600 --> 00:14:02,559 Speaker 2: three point great in the country. You can get three 273 00:14:02,600 --> 00:14:06,440 Speaker 2: point shots up against Michigan. Michigan, when they lost this year, 274 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 2: they shoot, they had poor shooting nights. They're basically unbeatable 275 00:14:09,400 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 2: when they shoot thirty five plus percent, if they shoot 276 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:16,679 Speaker 2: forty percent, like good night from three when if you 277 00:14:16,720 --> 00:14:18,960 Speaker 2: look at some of their losses this year, so like 278 00:14:19,000 --> 00:14:21,800 Speaker 2: you go back, there's there's not many. But against Wisconsin, 279 00:14:21,800 --> 00:14:24,920 Speaker 2: Wisconsin shot fifteen of thirty three from three and they 280 00:14:24,920 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 2: were eight of twenty five thirty two percent. They lost 281 00:14:28,160 --> 00:14:31,800 Speaker 2: to Duke and they were six of twenty five twenty 282 00:14:31,840 --> 00:14:37,080 Speaker 2: four percent, and then they lost to Purdue when they 283 00:14:37,080 --> 00:14:40,120 Speaker 2: were seven of twenty four twenty nine percent. So the 284 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:44,240 Speaker 2: first thing that Alabama needs is Michigan did not have 285 00:14:44,280 --> 00:14:47,400 Speaker 2: a great shooting night from the outside. The second thing 286 00:14:47,440 --> 00:14:48,560 Speaker 2: they need is they're gonna have to make a ton 287 00:14:48,560 --> 00:14:54,160 Speaker 2: of threes. And because one of Michigan's weaknesses is turnovers 288 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:58,440 Speaker 2: and Alabama never ever ever turned you over, which scares me. 289 00:14:58,480 --> 00:15:00,600 Speaker 2: And Michigan just has the second gear they can hit 290 00:15:00,640 --> 00:15:03,000 Speaker 2: at any time. So there's a lot of there's some 291 00:15:03,160 --> 00:15:05,200 Speaker 2: there's its Alabama. There's a lot of three point variants 292 00:15:05,200 --> 00:15:11,040 Speaker 2: in this game. But this does give me similar vibes 293 00:15:11,640 --> 00:15:15,840 Speaker 2: So Balabama hit nineteen threes in their last game against 294 00:15:15,880 --> 00:15:19,160 Speaker 2: Texas Tech. They had the third largest three point differential 295 00:15:19,240 --> 00:15:22,200 Speaker 2: in a game in tournament history against Texas Tech. We 296 00:15:22,240 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 2: couldn't hit anything from the outside. Last year, if you recall, 297 00:15:24,880 --> 00:15:27,880 Speaker 2: against BYU, Alabama set the tournament record and hit twenty 298 00:15:27,880 --> 00:15:31,080 Speaker 2: five threes. And in that game BYU went six of 299 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:35,640 Speaker 2: thirty twenty percent from three. So twenty five threes, the 300 00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:38,800 Speaker 2: other team goes six of thirty. Does that sound familiar? 301 00:15:38,800 --> 00:15:43,040 Speaker 2: Against Texas Tech? Alabama went nineteen or forty two and 302 00:15:43,120 --> 00:15:46,640 Speaker 2: Texas Tech went four of twenty five. I just couldn't 303 00:15:46,720 --> 00:15:49,800 Speaker 2: hit anything. So what happened in that next game? Last 304 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:53,880 Speaker 2: year Alabama faced a one seed and they got destroyed 305 00:15:53,920 --> 00:15:57,160 Speaker 2: by Duke that So there's similar vibes to that. I 306 00:15:57,200 --> 00:15:59,520 Speaker 2: but I'm pretty close to the number. There's a lot 307 00:15:59,560 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 2: of three points variants here. I don't have a full 308 00:16:01,720 --> 00:16:04,800 Speaker 2: handle on what this Alabama team is without Holloway because 309 00:16:04,840 --> 00:16:06,680 Speaker 2: it was like Hostra who's in the game till the 310 00:16:06,760 --> 00:16:12,560 Speaker 2: very end, and then Tech without topping. So it's hard 311 00:16:12,600 --> 00:16:15,040 Speaker 2: for me to see Alabama winning this game without extreme, 312 00:16:15,120 --> 00:16:17,080 Speaker 2: extreme three point variants. But I'm pretty close to the 313 00:16:17,160 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 2: number here both side in total, duck, what are you 314 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:22,560 Speaker 2: seeing Alabama Michigan very similar. 315 00:16:22,600 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 3: I don't have a play on this pre flop, but 316 00:16:24,200 --> 00:16:26,320 Speaker 3: I think there'll be some live betting opportunities for a 317 00:16:26,360 --> 00:16:29,000 Speaker 3: couple of reasons. First of all, if Alabama shoot the 318 00:16:29,040 --> 00:16:30,720 Speaker 3: ball as well as they did against Tech, they're going 319 00:16:30,760 --> 00:16:31,600 Speaker 3: to be in this game. 320 00:16:31,840 --> 00:16:32,920 Speaker 1: Sure, it's hard to. 321 00:16:34,520 --> 00:16:37,600 Speaker 3: It's hard to project nineteen made threes, but it's a 322 00:16:37,600 --> 00:16:38,760 Speaker 3: team that can get very. 323 00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:41,080 Speaker 2: Hot, and they're they're going. 324 00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:42,960 Speaker 3: To get them up to probably forty three shot in 325 00:16:42,960 --> 00:16:45,160 Speaker 3: this game. I look at Michigan late in the year. 326 00:16:45,280 --> 00:16:47,840 Speaker 3: Remember they played with their food a lot close wins 327 00:16:47,880 --> 00:16:51,120 Speaker 3: over Minnesota Iowa MSU. They were down by twelve in 328 00:16:51,120 --> 00:16:54,360 Speaker 3: the second half against Northwestern, never pulled away until about 329 00:16:54,400 --> 00:16:56,640 Speaker 3: a minute a half left in that one. Yeah, and 330 00:16:56,720 --> 00:17:00,560 Speaker 3: routinely Michigan has just found themselves down eight to ten 331 00:17:00,600 --> 00:17:03,200 Speaker 3: points before turning it on. I really like the way 332 00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:07,480 Speaker 3: Michigan has been playing offensively. Lende Borg has been a force. 333 00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:10,160 Speaker 3: Mara has made a ton of highlight plays and has 334 00:17:10,200 --> 00:17:13,320 Speaker 3: really been good in the post. Elliott Caddou can get 335 00:17:13,400 --> 00:17:15,600 Speaker 3: hot and start burying the three ball. He can create 336 00:17:15,640 --> 00:17:17,760 Speaker 3: off the bounce and get to the ten. I think 337 00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,159 Speaker 3: if you like Michigan, maybe just wait. I kind of 338 00:17:21,160 --> 00:17:23,680 Speaker 3: have a feeling there's going to be a spot where 339 00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:26,560 Speaker 3: the team is down six or eight and you can 340 00:17:26,600 --> 00:17:28,440 Speaker 3: get them lay in five and a half or less 341 00:17:28,480 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 3: at some point. I also might want to look in 342 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:32,920 Speaker 3: a live under. We saw it against Saint Louis where 343 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:34,919 Speaker 3: the total came out one sixty two and a half 344 00:17:35,560 --> 00:17:37,639 Speaker 3: in game. That total at one point was all the 345 00:17:37,680 --> 00:17:39,800 Speaker 3: way up to one seventy nine and a half, and 346 00:17:39,840 --> 00:17:41,959 Speaker 3: you knew there was one way action on that total. 347 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,920 Speaker 3: Saint Louis Michigan. The game had a ton of pace, 348 00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:48,359 Speaker 3: people were hitting shots. It was only one way action 349 00:17:48,440 --> 00:17:50,560 Speaker 3: on the over. Well, what happened in the second half 350 00:17:50,560 --> 00:17:53,679 Speaker 3: that Michigan defense came around, started forcing some stops. You 351 00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:58,080 Speaker 3: saw Michigan's offense slow the tempo down significantly. The original 352 00:17:58,119 --> 00:18:02,480 Speaker 3: total barely snuck over it. All those live totals failed 353 00:18:02,520 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 3: to cash in. So I think that could be a 354 00:18:04,119 --> 00:18:06,959 Speaker 3: similar trend here. This is a high total already at 355 00:18:06,960 --> 00:18:08,680 Speaker 3: one seventy four and a half one seventy five and 356 00:18:08,720 --> 00:18:11,119 Speaker 3: a half, But if we see something live in the 357 00:18:11,200 --> 00:18:13,560 Speaker 3: high one eighties, I'm going to hit the under and 358 00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:17,960 Speaker 3: just know that the truncated pace is coming. Michigan's defense 359 00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,359 Speaker 3: will step up and find some in game solutions to 360 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:22,760 Speaker 3: what Alabama is doing. So I want to look live 361 00:18:22,880 --> 00:18:26,080 Speaker 3: under if we can get ten or twelve points of value, 362 00:18:26,119 --> 00:18:29,000 Speaker 3: and in Michigan games we see that trend happen. So 363 00:18:29,359 --> 00:18:30,880 Speaker 3: I'm going to look live under and I think we'll 364 00:18:30,880 --> 00:18:33,760 Speaker 3: see a spot where we can get Michigan laying less 365 00:18:33,760 --> 00:18:35,040 Speaker 3: than ten here live in game. 366 00:18:36,040 --> 00:18:39,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, make sure you follow along on the Action Network 367 00:18:39,359 --> 00:18:43,440 Speaker 2: app for any live that's throughout the weekend. Yeah. In Michigan, though, 368 00:18:43,440 --> 00:18:45,520 Speaker 2: though you can get threes up against them, you're going 369 00:18:45,560 --> 00:18:47,560 Speaker 2: to need to make threes. Their pick and roll defense 370 00:18:47,600 --> 00:18:51,439 Speaker 2: has been vulnerable. Curious to see how often Yaks gets 371 00:18:51,480 --> 00:18:56,359 Speaker 2: the file on assignment. That should be interesting. Calbary's what 372 00:18:56,400 --> 00:18:57,040 Speaker 2: are you seeing here? 373 00:18:57,840 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 1: I'm going to go in a different direction here. I'm 374 00:18:59,320 --> 00:19:01,439 Speaker 1: going to go with the worlds team total to hit 375 00:19:01,480 --> 00:19:03,400 Speaker 1: one hundred points, so over ninety nine and a half 376 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:05,920 Speaker 1: it's plus two forty three. They hit triple dig just 377 00:19:06,040 --> 00:19:08,280 Speaker 1: nine times this year. There's sixth and ken Palm offense 378 00:19:08,320 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 1: slightly dipped obviously because of the loss of case On, 379 00:19:10,880 --> 00:19:13,080 Speaker 1: but McKenny looked pretty good off the bench so far 380 00:19:13,119 --> 00:19:15,000 Speaker 1: through two games in the tournament, picking up a little 381 00:19:15,000 --> 00:19:17,159 Speaker 1: bit of that slack. And obviously the pace is going 382 00:19:17,200 --> 00:19:19,480 Speaker 1: to make this possible with Alabama pushing it at the 383 00:19:19,480 --> 00:19:22,000 Speaker 1: fourth quickest pace in the sport. They give up one 384 00:19:22,040 --> 00:19:24,840 Speaker 1: hundred points to Florida, ninety five in regulation to Arkansas 385 00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:28,200 Speaker 1: before they landed on one point fifteen in doublet ninety 386 00:19:28,200 --> 00:19:30,600 Speaker 1: eight to Georgia, ninety two to Auburn, ninety seven to 387 00:19:30,640 --> 00:19:32,680 Speaker 1: A and M. This all happened in the past seven weeks, 388 00:19:32,720 --> 00:19:34,040 Speaker 1: so a lot of teams have been knocking on the 389 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:37,160 Speaker 1: door and Michigan has that fifth gear to blow past them. 390 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:39,960 Speaker 1: Every possession is going to be a scoring opportunity for 391 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:42,719 Speaker 1: Michigan because Bama doesn't turn anybody over three hundred and 392 00:19:42,720 --> 00:19:45,280 Speaker 1: fifty eighth in turnover creation in the country, which is 393 00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:48,080 Speaker 1: just pathetic, and they're all full on the defensive class, 394 00:19:48,240 --> 00:19:51,400 Speaker 1: so I think, really there's going to be very few 395 00:19:51,440 --> 00:19:54,400 Speaker 1: empty possessions, and really the only way I see them 396 00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: going into a funk is if they get lulled into 397 00:19:56,960 --> 00:20:00,639 Speaker 1: a three point shooting competition with the Crimson. But I 398 00:20:00,640 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 1: think there's just going to be opportunities for them to 399 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:05,400 Speaker 1: spread them out, drive to the whole dish, hitcutters get 400 00:20:05,480 --> 00:20:08,160 Speaker 1: high percentage shots at the rim because Bama just gives 401 00:20:08,240 --> 00:20:11,320 Speaker 1: them up in waves. So this number is right for me. 402 00:20:11,359 --> 00:20:13,919 Speaker 1: I liked it anywhere above two to one, at almost 403 00:20:13,920 --> 00:20:15,800 Speaker 1: at five to two. I think it's too good to 404 00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:18,160 Speaker 1: pass up for a Michigan team that we just saw 405 00:20:18,160 --> 00:20:20,760 Speaker 1: it against Saint Louis. I agree with Duck that I 406 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:24,639 Speaker 1: think from a game flow perspective, they could maybe come 407 00:20:24,680 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 1: out of the gates a little bit slow and you 408 00:20:26,359 --> 00:20:28,399 Speaker 1: could grab a better number. And I don't think that's 409 00:20:28,440 --> 00:20:30,600 Speaker 1: a bad strategy at all. But you saw what they 410 00:20:30,600 --> 00:20:33,399 Speaker 1: did against Slough, Like when they had an opportunity to 411 00:20:33,440 --> 00:20:36,240 Speaker 1: go for the jugular, they did not stop until they 412 00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,040 Speaker 1: were up by twenty points in that game. So I 413 00:20:39,080 --> 00:20:41,719 Speaker 1: think this team, you don't see it all then their 414 00:20:41,760 --> 00:20:43,960 Speaker 1: starters into like the final minute in that game. Right, 415 00:20:44,040 --> 00:20:47,760 Speaker 1: It's like, I think there's a bit of gamesmanship and 416 00:20:47,800 --> 00:20:50,960 Speaker 1: psychology at play with Dusty May and it's almost beneficial 417 00:20:51,320 --> 00:20:53,239 Speaker 1: that they didn't run through the tape at the end 418 00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,639 Speaker 1: of the regular season and play their best basketball in 419 00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,719 Speaker 1: the Big ten tournament. I think he has their attention. 420 00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 1: You don't see this very often in college hoops, but 421 00:21:00,440 --> 00:21:03,080 Speaker 1: I think this is them flipping the switch situation. This 422 00:21:03,160 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: is one of the highest rated teams in the history 423 00:21:04,720 --> 00:21:07,679 Speaker 1: of Ken Palm's database for much of this season. Now 424 00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:09,480 Speaker 1: I think they're starting to play like it. So let 425 00:21:09,560 --> 00:21:11,560 Speaker 1: me go ahead and bank on them just going you know, 426 00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:13,520 Speaker 1: BTA on Alabama. 427 00:21:13,000 --> 00:21:15,399 Speaker 2: Here, All right, good stuff there. Before we move on 428 00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,200 Speaker 2: to the late games, I'll throw it to myself for 429 00:21:18,400 --> 00:21:24,200 Speaker 2: a word from Robinhood. What if sports were traded like markets? 430 00:21:24,600 --> 00:21:27,720 Speaker 2: Now you can put your sports IQ to work in 431 00:21:27,760 --> 00:21:32,240 Speaker 2: real time with Robinhood Prediction Markets. It's not you against 432 00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:36,080 Speaker 2: the house, it's you participating in a live market. You 433 00:21:36,119 --> 00:21:39,600 Speaker 2: can buy or sell your positions live all game long, 434 00:21:39,880 --> 00:21:42,680 Speaker 2: use your sports knowledge in the moments that matter. 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Download the 442 00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:12,200 Speaker 2: robin Hood app now to begin futures and cleared swaps. 443 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:16,120 Speaker 2: Trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. 444 00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:20,080 Speaker 2: Event contracts are offered by Robinhood Derivatives, LLC, a registered 445 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 2: Futures Commission merchant and swap firm. All right, let's hit 446 00:22:25,200 --> 00:22:31,040 Speaker 2: the late games. Let's go back to the nation's capital 447 00:22:31,640 --> 00:22:36,879 Speaker 2: for Michigan State, Yukon. This is the two three matchup 448 00:22:37,040 --> 00:22:41,040 Speaker 2: in the East Regional Yukon, sitting around a one and 449 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:45,600 Speaker 2: a half point favor total. We'll call it one thirty 450 00:22:45,640 --> 00:22:50,840 Speaker 2: six consensus. Very intriguing game here. I played some Yukon. 451 00:22:52,040 --> 00:22:53,720 Speaker 2: I'll get into my reasons why I don't. I didn't. 452 00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:54,600 Speaker 1: I don't I like. 453 00:22:54,640 --> 00:22:56,800 Speaker 2: I prefer to do these blind, so I don't know. 454 00:22:56,840 --> 00:22:58,439 Speaker 2: I don't even look at the docks. I have no 455 00:22:58,480 --> 00:22:59,959 Speaker 2: idea what you guys like. I think it's better that way. 456 00:23:01,440 --> 00:23:04,880 Speaker 2: So I'll Calbury's curiosity, which side do you like here? 457 00:23:05,560 --> 00:23:07,960 Speaker 1: So I'm going with a player prop because I kind 458 00:23:07,960 --> 00:23:10,479 Speaker 1: of talked myself into and out of both sides of this, 459 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:14,879 Speaker 1: but zeroing in on tris Reed Junior his combo for 460 00:23:14,920 --> 00:23:17,680 Speaker 1: points and rebounds twenty two and a half. He surpassed 461 00:23:17,680 --> 00:23:20,040 Speaker 1: this number in five of six. They're giving him every 462 00:23:20,080 --> 00:23:22,320 Speaker 1: opportunity to score points in the paint in terms of 463 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:25,160 Speaker 1: you know, post touches, and he's said double digit SIOD 464 00:23:25,160 --> 00:23:27,560 Speaker 1: attempts in eight of his last thirteen games. Like we 465 00:23:27,680 --> 00:23:32,760 Speaker 1: all have essentially chronicled Yukon's offensive struggles, it's been you know, 466 00:23:32,840 --> 00:23:35,240 Speaker 1: their guards have been able to knock down shots when 467 00:23:35,280 --> 00:23:37,520 Speaker 1: it's crunch time. They give him the opportunity. So I 468 00:23:37,520 --> 00:23:40,199 Speaker 1: think he's a shoe in for ten plus shot attempts 469 00:23:40,200 --> 00:23:42,920 Speaker 1: in this game, assuming that he doesn't get himself into 470 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,000 Speaker 1: foul trouble. And I think this is sitting in the 471 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,480 Speaker 1: low twenties because Michigan State is the best rebounding team 472 00:23:47,520 --> 00:23:49,560 Speaker 1: remaining in this field now that Florida has been ounsted. 473 00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:53,159 Speaker 1: But like, let's look for direct comps. Michigan's Yaxel and 474 00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:56,080 Speaker 1: Morez Johnson Junior both went over this combo. Eric Daily 475 00:23:56,119 --> 00:24:00,400 Speaker 1: for UCLA went over against Michigan State. David Murkovic for 476 00:24:00,600 --> 00:24:05,480 Speaker 1: Illinois as well. I think the super talented guys, it's 477 00:24:05,640 --> 00:24:08,080 Speaker 1: even though they're a very good rebounding team, I think 478 00:24:08,119 --> 00:24:10,040 Speaker 1: it's just difficult to keep a guy like this off 479 00:24:10,080 --> 00:24:13,000 Speaker 1: the glass, and the offense is going to funnel through him. 480 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:15,119 Speaker 1: And really it just comes down to foul trouble. You know, 481 00:24:15,200 --> 00:24:17,159 Speaker 1: is Michigan State a team that draws a ton of 482 00:24:17,160 --> 00:24:19,440 Speaker 1: fouls just looking at the resume, No, they don't get 483 00:24:19,480 --> 00:24:22,760 Speaker 1: to the line an incredibly you know, high volume, but 484 00:24:23,240 --> 00:24:25,800 Speaker 1: you know, whistle goes one way or the other. It's always. 485 00:24:26,080 --> 00:24:27,880 Speaker 1: I mean, we talked to doctor Nick and Sean Kerner 486 00:24:27,880 --> 00:24:29,960 Speaker 1: about this with the player props. When you get into 487 00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:32,720 Speaker 1: bed with you know, a power forward or a center 488 00:24:32,760 --> 00:24:35,119 Speaker 1: in college, hoops two fouls in the first half, it 489 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:38,399 Speaker 1: sinks any over. But I think if he stays on 490 00:24:38,440 --> 00:24:41,240 Speaker 1: the floor and plays thirty minutes, this one's going to fall. 491 00:24:41,400 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 1: So I'll go over twenty two and a half on 492 00:24:42,760 --> 00:24:43,159 Speaker 1: the combo. 493 00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:45,560 Speaker 2: What are you seeing here, Eileen? 494 00:24:45,640 --> 00:24:47,760 Speaker 3: Under the total, you've got Izzo and Hurley. In an 495 00:24:47,840 --> 00:24:50,440 Speaker 3: NCAA tournament neutral setting, the pace should be slow. Here 496 00:24:50,520 --> 00:24:53,919 Speaker 3: Yukon is three hundred and twenty second in offensive operating tempo, 497 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 3: and no games played in the Big East Tournament or 498 00:24:57,200 --> 00:24:59,960 Speaker 3: the NCAA Tournament have a cliped sixty five total possession. 499 00:25:00,520 --> 00:25:02,399 Speaker 3: We've got a match up here between the eleventh and 500 00:25:02,440 --> 00:25:06,280 Speaker 3: thirteenth most effective defenses in the entire country. I think 501 00:25:06,320 --> 00:25:09,000 Speaker 3: both these defenses keep this game in the half court here. 502 00:25:09,040 --> 00:25:13,119 Speaker 3: I think the transition opportunities and the ability to create 503 00:25:13,240 --> 00:25:16,600 Speaker 3: offense off of turnovers in the fast break should be 504 00:25:16,640 --> 00:25:19,399 Speaker 3: fairly limited. I look at Yukon offensively. They're not a 505 00:25:19,440 --> 00:25:22,000 Speaker 3: team to just flippantly throw up a ton of bad 506 00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:25,200 Speaker 3: three point shots. I think we'll see really methodical work 507 00:25:25,200 --> 00:25:27,320 Speaker 3: from them to get the ball where they want it 508 00:25:27,359 --> 00:25:30,080 Speaker 3: in the paint, play the high low game here. I 509 00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,600 Speaker 3: just expect long positions from Yukon. But this is a 510 00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:34,560 Speaker 3: game where the whistle is really going to be important 511 00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,760 Speaker 3: here because Yukon does foul quite often and if fears 512 00:25:37,840 --> 00:25:41,560 Speaker 3: car and cooler are getting to the stripe, this total 513 00:25:41,560 --> 00:25:44,000 Speaker 3: could go haywire after the under eight time out in 514 00:25:44,040 --> 00:25:46,919 Speaker 3: the second half, but as is, I lean under the 515 00:25:46,920 --> 00:25:48,200 Speaker 3: post total one thirty six. 516 00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:52,400 Speaker 2: All right, I like Yukon here. Now it's scared they're 517 00:25:52,400 --> 00:25:54,960 Speaker 2: going to need someone to make some shots. So it's 518 00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:59,520 Speaker 2: very scary because solo ball, like what has happened to 519 00:25:59,560 --> 00:26:01,639 Speaker 2: him under thirty percent of the year. Now he only 520 00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:05,920 Speaker 2: played thirteen minutes against UCLA they did get Silas back, 521 00:26:05,960 --> 00:26:08,000 Speaker 2: but Mullins they I mean, they just have a bunch 522 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:11,920 Speaker 2: of guys that seemingly don't have much confidence from the outside. 523 00:26:12,080 --> 00:26:14,119 Speaker 2: Now I do like that Ross is getting more minutes 524 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,159 Speaker 2: and they're just overdue to make some shots. And if 525 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:20,200 Speaker 2: they make a couple early, then I think Yukon wins 526 00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:23,639 Speaker 2: this game semi easily. And meanwhile, Michigan State over their 527 00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:27,200 Speaker 2: past three games is shooting thirty two of sixty nine 528 00:26:27,240 --> 00:26:30,880 Speaker 2: from three, like Cohen Carr making threes. You're getting Trey 529 00:26:31,040 --> 00:26:35,719 Speaker 2: fort hitting threes, you know, four threes as he's falling 530 00:26:35,760 --> 00:26:38,760 Speaker 2: down like Steph Curry on all of them. Some major 531 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,359 Speaker 2: potential shooting regression for Sparti coming. But the main reason 532 00:26:42,400 --> 00:26:44,879 Speaker 2: I like Yukon here, Number one, I'm getting early, just 533 00:26:44,960 --> 00:26:47,800 Speaker 2: laying I played some money on. I'm winning a game 534 00:26:48,040 --> 00:26:50,040 Speaker 2: on a neutral court in the tournament. This is a 535 00:26:50,080 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 2: guy who's what fifteen to one against the spread over 536 00:26:53,880 --> 00:26:57,320 Speaker 2: his past sixteen tournament games. But here's some of the 537 00:26:57,320 --> 00:26:59,680 Speaker 2: things I like. Both these teams are excellent two way 538 00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:02,120 Speaker 2: rebus teams. I don't think either is going to completely 539 00:27:02,160 --> 00:27:05,280 Speaker 2: dominate the glass. I think there's kind of going to 540 00:27:05,359 --> 00:27:09,000 Speaker 2: neutralize each other in that aspect. The Read Cooper matchup 541 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:13,040 Speaker 2: in the interior, that's pretty fast, and that'll be like 542 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:15,199 Speaker 2: who can stay out a foul trouble, who can go? 543 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:18,760 Speaker 2: Can Cooper really contain him one on one? That'll be 544 00:27:18,840 --> 00:27:23,840 Speaker 2: must see TV. But here's the thing, you can Connecticut 545 00:27:23,840 --> 00:27:27,000 Speaker 2: has turnover issues. Michigan State never turned you over, so 546 00:27:27,440 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 2: they don't have to worry as much about their turnover issues. 547 00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:33,320 Speaker 2: And Michigan State can't defend off the ball. I mean 548 00:27:33,320 --> 00:27:38,439 Speaker 2: you're talking one of this beautiful motion Yukon offense that 549 00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:43,640 Speaker 2: runs everything off screens, multiple screens, different layers. You're talking 550 00:27:43,640 --> 00:27:45,639 Speaker 2: about a Michigan State defense that ranks in the second 551 00:27:45,680 --> 00:27:50,200 Speaker 2: percentile defending off ball screens. That is very troubling. They've 552 00:27:50,320 --> 00:27:55,359 Speaker 2: struggled defending off drible off handoffs. I mean, there's some 553 00:27:55,600 --> 00:28:00,760 Speaker 2: very worrying metrics for this Michigan State defense. And Yukon 554 00:28:01,080 --> 00:28:03,919 Speaker 2: also is an elite transition defense. So I mean, if 555 00:28:03,960 --> 00:28:08,800 Speaker 2: you can limit Michigan State in transition and you have 556 00:28:08,880 --> 00:28:12,240 Speaker 2: the offense to beat them with all their off ball stuff, 557 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,840 Speaker 2: I think that spells trouble for Michigan State, especially at 558 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:21,959 Speaker 2: the outside shots dry up. Yukon is basically Minnesota on 559 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:25,120 Speaker 2: steroids with all of the actions they run and their 560 00:28:25,160 --> 00:28:29,520 Speaker 2: ability to limit transition, and we saw Michigan State struggle 561 00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:33,520 Speaker 2: with Minnesota, so I think there's paths if Yukon just 562 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,760 Speaker 2: gets any shooting from the outside and then Michigan State 563 00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:41,280 Speaker 2: doesn't continue this toward recent pace. I think Yukon wins 564 00:28:41,280 --> 00:28:43,600 Speaker 2: this game. I'm gonna trust early in company to get 565 00:28:43,640 --> 00:28:51,160 Speaker 2: it done and in another great, great coaching matchup anything that, gentlemen, no, I. 566 00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:54,640 Speaker 1: Think this is But like everyone's assessment on the game, 567 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:57,480 Speaker 1: I think it really does come down to if Yukon 568 00:28:57,840 --> 00:29:01,280 Speaker 1: can get some confidence from their shooters. I think this 569 00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,040 Speaker 1: is there to lose. I don't really see how Michigan 570 00:29:04,040 --> 00:29:05,920 Speaker 1: State is going to be better than them in multiple 571 00:29:05,960 --> 00:29:07,920 Speaker 1: facets of the game to make up for that. But 572 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:11,120 Speaker 1: it's a little bit scary because they have shown that 573 00:29:11,160 --> 00:29:13,640 Speaker 1: they can go ice cold multiple times really in the 574 00:29:13,640 --> 00:29:16,200 Speaker 1: past three weeks. So that's why I'm keeping my money 575 00:29:16,200 --> 00:29:18,520 Speaker 1: on the sideline. But it's it's a clear path to 576 00:29:18,600 --> 00:29:22,480 Speaker 1: victory with an excellent tournament coach. So at some point 577 00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:24,800 Speaker 1: you think someone's got to give these guys a lot 578 00:29:24,840 --> 00:29:27,880 Speaker 1: of them are career thirty five plus percent shooters from deep. 579 00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:29,000 Speaker 1: It's not for them to turn it on. 580 00:29:29,800 --> 00:29:31,520 Speaker 3: Yeah, you have to feel good if your Yukon too. 581 00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:34,600 Speaker 3: I think if you've last five games, you've had poor 582 00:29:34,600 --> 00:29:37,280 Speaker 3: shooting efforts from nearly everybody, and so you've shot the 583 00:29:37,280 --> 00:29:40,280 Speaker 3: ball poorly. The defense has kept you in games. You 584 00:29:40,320 --> 00:29:42,400 Speaker 3: know what you can run, and these guys can turn 585 00:29:42,400 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 3: it on. I think you have to feel somewhat confident 586 00:29:44,400 --> 00:29:47,960 Speaker 3: if you're Yukon that you're going to see better positive 587 00:29:48,000 --> 00:29:50,200 Speaker 3: shooting regression towards that mean at some point. 588 00:29:51,120 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 2: Yeah. Yeah, and Michigan, I mean Michigan State. Look, they're 589 00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:58,440 Speaker 2: a half court offense, can get stuck in the mud. 590 00:29:58,520 --> 00:30:02,360 Speaker 2: They're best hats to offen offensive rebounding, which is going 591 00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:04,600 Speaker 2: to be tough against Yukon. A very good defensive rent team. 592 00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,400 Speaker 2: And then in transition they're elite eighty second percentile frequency, 593 00:30:07,520 --> 00:30:12,160 Speaker 2: ninety first percentile efficiency. It's a tom Izzo team. They're 594 00:30:12,240 --> 00:30:17,680 Speaker 2: great in transition well Connecticut twenty nine percent frequency, ninety 595 00:30:17,720 --> 00:30:21,880 Speaker 2: first percentile efficiencies. They're really really good transition defense, and 596 00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:27,640 Speaker 2: they're very good on the defensive boards. And they're also 597 00:30:27,760 --> 00:30:31,480 Speaker 2: ninety eighth percentile defending at the rim. So like Ken 598 00:30:31,520 --> 00:30:34,720 Speaker 2: Michigan State keep hitting shots, I'll bet that they can't. 599 00:30:34,720 --> 00:30:37,719 Speaker 2: And someone on someone on yukon the solo ball, he's 600 00:30:38,160 --> 00:30:40,360 Speaker 2: I need you to make your first three. I mean 601 00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:44,200 Speaker 2: it was very telling against Furman. He was him and 602 00:30:44,320 --> 00:30:47,000 Speaker 2: Mullins went one and fourteen I think combined, and Hurley 603 00:30:47,120 --> 00:30:48,680 Speaker 2: like went out of his way to like fist pump 604 00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:50,480 Speaker 2: him at half court, like ran out of the court 605 00:30:50,480 --> 00:30:53,360 Speaker 2: because he made one. Like so you know that his 606 00:30:53,480 --> 00:30:57,240 Speaker 2: confidence is definitely shaken. So I can't wait for that 607 00:30:57,280 --> 00:31:00,920 Speaker 2: one ninety five Eastern on Saturday, and then the super 608 00:31:01,000 --> 00:31:06,000 Speaker 2: late game ten ten Eastern between Tennessee and Iowa State 609 00:31:06,240 --> 00:31:12,520 Speaker 2: in Chicago. Iowa State four, let's call it again, let's 610 00:31:12,520 --> 00:31:14,520 Speaker 2: call it four and a half. Maybe do some fours 611 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:18,400 Speaker 2: out there as well. Point favor total one thirty eight 612 00:31:18,400 --> 00:31:24,120 Speaker 2: and a half. The big news here is Jefferson. His status. 613 00:31:24,240 --> 00:31:26,480 Speaker 2: Is he going to play? Is he not? How healthy 614 00:31:26,520 --> 00:31:29,840 Speaker 2: is he is he going to be? I was dead 615 00:31:29,840 --> 00:31:32,920 Speaker 2: wrong on Kentucky. They just couldn't handle the Iowa State pressure. 616 00:31:33,640 --> 00:31:37,600 Speaker 2: I don't think that Jefferson is going to play. And 617 00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,000 Speaker 2: if that's the case, I mean That's why I've got 618 00:31:40,000 --> 00:31:41,920 Speaker 2: Tennessee plus four and a half. That this number is 619 00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:44,760 Speaker 2: way way way too high for me. Jefferson will be 620 00:31:45,040 --> 00:31:47,920 Speaker 2: He's their best defensive rebounder two and that is now 621 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,600 Speaker 2: there is questions ken Tennessee handle the pressure. Turnovers have 622 00:31:50,640 --> 00:31:53,240 Speaker 2: been an issue for them. That is the big question here, 623 00:31:53,360 --> 00:31:54,840 Speaker 2: because if as long as they can get into their 624 00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,440 Speaker 2: half court offense, if Jefferson isn't there, they can do 625 00:31:58,520 --> 00:32:00,600 Speaker 2: some damage at the women on the offense of glass, 626 00:32:01,520 --> 00:32:04,720 Speaker 2: and then I mean, I just I trust Gillespie to 627 00:32:04,800 --> 00:32:07,160 Speaker 2: keep them in this. I thought Boswell was great in 628 00:32:07,200 --> 00:32:10,480 Speaker 2: their last game. He's gaining confidence. This will be a war. 629 00:32:10,560 --> 00:32:12,920 Speaker 2: And if Jefferson doesn't play, I mean, I'm close to 630 00:32:13,000 --> 00:32:15,000 Speaker 2: like one on this game. I have to play four 631 00:32:15,000 --> 00:32:18,440 Speaker 2: and a half. A lot of respect for Atts and 632 00:32:18,480 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 2: there was kind of like a ewing theory against Kentucky. 633 00:32:20,640 --> 00:32:24,840 Speaker 2: Right without Jefferson, everyone else stepped up. And but Tennessee's 634 00:32:24,880 --> 00:32:29,160 Speaker 2: much better than Kentucky and on the glass, Jefferson could 635 00:32:29,200 --> 00:32:33,120 Speaker 2: be sorely missed. So I like Tennessee or plus four 636 00:32:33,160 --> 00:32:34,600 Speaker 2: and half. I think this goes right down on the wire. 637 00:32:35,080 --> 00:32:35,840 Speaker 2: Calvary's what are you. 638 00:32:35,760 --> 00:32:37,960 Speaker 1: Saying, well, he set me up right for what I 639 00:32:38,040 --> 00:32:39,880 Speaker 1: want to talk about, because Barnes, I don't know if 640 00:32:39,880 --> 00:32:41,760 Speaker 1: you caught it. In the post game, he was talking 641 00:32:41,800 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 1: about like if he was a college football coach, he'd 642 00:32:43,880 --> 00:32:46,680 Speaker 1: run a single wing or wing t offense, and his 643 00:32:46,760 --> 00:32:48,920 Speaker 1: direct quote was, I don't mind shooting threes with the 644 00:32:48,960 --> 00:32:51,720 Speaker 1: right guys shooting it, but I believe playing inside out. 645 00:32:51,760 --> 00:32:53,840 Speaker 1: I still believe there's great value on putting teams and 646 00:32:53,880 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 1: felt trouble trying to get people to the bench by 647 00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:56,480 Speaker 1: doing that. 648 00:32:56,960 --> 00:32:57,760 Speaker 2: What I think that. 649 00:32:57,640 --> 00:33:01,120 Speaker 1: Indicates is this is a Nate a met game going 650 00:33:01,200 --> 00:33:03,440 Speaker 1: to go combos. I think this one is low by 651 00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,280 Speaker 1: about three. It's twenty and a half on points and rebounds. 652 00:33:06,480 --> 00:33:07,920 Speaker 1: If you take out the game at the end of 653 00:33:07,960 --> 00:33:10,320 Speaker 1: the regular season where he got injured against Bama, he 654 00:33:10,360 --> 00:33:12,440 Speaker 1: went above this number six times. To close out the 655 00:33:12,480 --> 00:33:15,239 Speaker 1: regular season, they drill Miami, Ohio. They didn't need him, 656 00:33:15,280 --> 00:33:17,160 Speaker 1: didn't get the minutes, didn't get the touches. Then he 657 00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:19,600 Speaker 1: lands on twenty in this combo against Virginia. I think 658 00:33:19,600 --> 00:33:22,320 Speaker 1: that's suppressing this number. But he has this skill set 659 00:33:22,360 --> 00:33:25,720 Speaker 1: to obliterate this thing because he's naturally called upon in 660 00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:29,120 Speaker 1: this offense to take fifteen shots, and without Jefferson in 661 00:33:29,160 --> 00:33:31,960 Speaker 1: the middle, you get Blake Buchanan who's a foul machine. 662 00:33:32,080 --> 00:33:34,160 Speaker 1: You get Mam Chilovich who you can out muscle on 663 00:33:34,200 --> 00:33:37,320 Speaker 1: the glass, or you get Piazza Pizza who struggles with 664 00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,080 Speaker 1: fouls as well. Mens is a super skilled player in 665 00:33:40,160 --> 00:33:41,320 Speaker 1: terms of getting to the line. 666 00:33:41,360 --> 00:33:42,360 Speaker 2: He's rated a. 667 00:33:42,520 --> 00:33:45,080 Speaker 1: Plus by Evan Miha in scoring volume, which puts in 668 00:33:45,160 --> 00:33:48,320 Speaker 1: of the ninety nine percentile. Barnes is going to give 669 00:33:48,400 --> 00:33:51,760 Speaker 1: him every opportunity to break this Cyclone team in the 670 00:33:51,800 --> 00:33:54,160 Speaker 1: half court. Can they get there to all these half 671 00:33:54,240 --> 00:33:56,840 Speaker 1: court possessions without turning it over? That's the only rub. 672 00:33:57,040 --> 00:33:59,640 Speaker 1: But if they are able to control turnovers and keep 673 00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:02,160 Speaker 1: them once call up below twelve or thirteen, I think 674 00:34:02,160 --> 00:34:04,040 Speaker 1: he's going to get closer to twenty five or thirty 675 00:34:04,080 --> 00:34:06,320 Speaker 1: on this combo and not where it's currently sitting at 676 00:34:06,360 --> 00:34:08,440 Speaker 1: twenty and a half. The loss of Jefferson can't be 677 00:34:08,480 --> 00:34:11,080 Speaker 1: overstated because the front court for the Clones are just 678 00:34:11,239 --> 00:34:14,000 Speaker 1: no one can fill his shoes on the glass or 679 00:34:14,040 --> 00:34:16,880 Speaker 1: defensively as a combination of the two. So I'm going 680 00:34:16,920 --> 00:34:19,000 Speaker 1: to go with a men here who I think remains 681 00:34:19,000 --> 00:34:21,040 Speaker 1: one of the most underrated freshmen in this class. 682 00:34:21,480 --> 00:34:23,799 Speaker 2: I also will say something worth noting. Yeah, I think 683 00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:27,759 Speaker 2: a man can have a big game here. There's if 684 00:34:27,800 --> 00:34:30,239 Speaker 2: you're betting this live, this doesn't happen often, but it's 685 00:34:30,239 --> 00:34:35,400 Speaker 2: happened a couple of games this year. Gillaspie cannot cannot, 686 00:34:36,040 --> 00:34:40,160 Speaker 2: under any circumstances get in foul trouble like that cannot happen. 687 00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:42,560 Speaker 2: There's been a couple games where he has gotten in 688 00:34:42,560 --> 00:34:45,439 Speaker 2: foul trouble. He had four against Auburn and Georgia, found 689 00:34:45,440 --> 00:34:50,000 Speaker 2: out against Texas A and m to Illinois, Kansas Houston. 690 00:34:50,160 --> 00:34:52,160 Speaker 2: Against some of these more physical teams, he's gotten to 691 00:34:52,239 --> 00:34:58,399 Speaker 2: four fouls. They you can't have Boswell and ethan Berg 692 00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:03,240 Speaker 2: trying to to bring the ball up against Iowa State. 693 00:35:03,840 --> 00:35:08,480 Speaker 2: They it is mandatory that Gillespie stays out of foul trouble. 694 00:35:08,560 --> 00:35:10,400 Speaker 2: And if you're live betting in Tennessee's up and he 695 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:12,640 Speaker 2: gets invoultrable, I would be looking prior with state, especially 696 00:35:13,000 --> 00:35:17,040 Speaker 2: high some Tennessee futures. That is something that might not 697 00:35:17,160 --> 00:35:19,359 Speaker 2: it's a little under the radar, but might not get 698 00:35:19,360 --> 00:35:21,719 Speaker 2: talked a lot about. But if he goes out of 699 00:35:21,719 --> 00:35:25,800 Speaker 2: this game for any long stretch, it's gonna be messy 700 00:35:25,840 --> 00:35:30,600 Speaker 2: for the Tennessee offense. Duck what he's seeing here very similar. 701 00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:32,839 Speaker 3: I mean, the health of Joshua jeff Person is huge here, 702 00:35:32,880 --> 00:35:35,759 Speaker 3: so monitor his status closely. I don't know that he's 703 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:36,560 Speaker 3: gonna play with the type. 704 00:35:36,560 --> 00:35:39,040 Speaker 2: I don't think he's gonna APay that's my boy. 705 00:35:39,040 --> 00:35:42,680 Speaker 3: It gets worse as more time goes by, so he'll 706 00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:44,759 Speaker 3: really be in some pain this week. It would be 707 00:35:44,800 --> 00:35:47,759 Speaker 3: stunning if he goes. I really think Tennessee can hang here. 708 00:35:47,760 --> 00:35:49,560 Speaker 3: I mean, you look at the best offensive rebounding team 709 00:35:49,560 --> 00:35:53,240 Speaker 3: in the country. They're rebounding offensive rebounding forty five percent 710 00:35:53,280 --> 00:35:56,200 Speaker 3: of their misses. And when you stack together the second 711 00:35:56,320 --> 00:35:59,680 Speaker 3: chance opportunities and you win the shot volume metric, it's 712 00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:01,319 Speaker 3: gonna be huge here in a game like this. 713 00:36:02,360 --> 00:36:03,760 Speaker 1: And Tennessee's been doing. 714 00:36:03,560 --> 00:36:06,600 Speaker 3: This without Nate Ament really playing his best basketball. It's 715 00:36:06,640 --> 00:36:10,239 Speaker 3: been Jalen Carey and JP Astrella that have really stepped up. 716 00:36:10,560 --> 00:36:12,799 Speaker 3: But I go back to how Tennessee made Virginia look 717 00:36:12,840 --> 00:36:15,840 Speaker 3: like jumps. Uva had such an exquisite rim protecting defense, 718 00:36:16,320 --> 00:36:22,000 Speaker 3: and Grumlow and Ugana were just completely neutralized defensively against Tennessee, 719 00:36:22,960 --> 00:36:24,680 Speaker 3: and Tennessee. 720 00:36:24,239 --> 00:36:27,680 Speaker 1: Does very good. They're very efficient in varying their temple. 721 00:36:27,760 --> 00:36:30,480 Speaker 3: They don't really seek to run, but they'll run when 722 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:32,839 Speaker 3: they have a significant advantage. And Rick Barnes has really 723 00:36:32,880 --> 00:36:35,960 Speaker 3: done well throttling down the tempo, like you had said, 724 00:36:36,000 --> 00:36:37,360 Speaker 3: playing inside out. 725 00:36:37,520 --> 00:36:38,720 Speaker 1: Really pounding the paint. 726 00:36:39,400 --> 00:36:42,680 Speaker 3: And it's just tough to prepare for and it's going 727 00:36:42,719 --> 00:36:45,520 Speaker 3: to be really tough without Jefferson. I think it's a 728 00:36:45,560 --> 00:36:47,600 Speaker 3: tough go for Iowa State here. I think Tennessee has 729 00:36:47,600 --> 00:36:49,319 Speaker 3: the goods to win this game. I think the way 730 00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:52,799 Speaker 3: that they play defense is really going to frustrate Iowa State. 731 00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:55,520 Speaker 3: And I think when you have a team that has 732 00:36:55,600 --> 00:36:58,960 Speaker 3: three guys with the significant height advantage, they pound the post, 733 00:36:59,040 --> 00:37:02,080 Speaker 3: they can offense, rebound everything, probably get some trips to 734 00:37:02,160 --> 00:37:05,160 Speaker 3: the foul line that Iowa State wouldn't have necessarily expected. 735 00:37:06,000 --> 00:37:08,319 Speaker 3: This game is going to be razor tight late, and 736 00:37:08,360 --> 00:37:10,120 Speaker 3: I think Tennessee has a real chance to win it. 737 00:37:10,960 --> 00:37:13,600 Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I agree, I completely agree there. I'll be 738 00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:15,200 Speaker 2: on the balls. Don't mind a little money on there 739 00:37:15,200 --> 00:37:19,880 Speaker 2: if you don't have any futures exposure. Curious gentlemen, before 740 00:37:19,920 --> 00:37:23,439 Speaker 2: we go through just favorite bets recap. You have any 741 00:37:23,640 --> 00:37:29,040 Speaker 2: thing you love or like on Thursday, call grease anything 742 00:37:29,080 --> 00:37:29,880 Speaker 2: you want to mention. 743 00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:31,960 Speaker 1: Let me, let me go back in the way back 744 00:37:32,000 --> 00:37:36,600 Speaker 1: machine here take a look at the Thursday slates. I mean, 745 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:38,719 Speaker 1: I really like Purdue. If you can get six and 746 00:37:38,719 --> 00:37:40,879 Speaker 1: a half, I think the floor is going to fall 747 00:37:40,880 --> 00:37:43,160 Speaker 1: out for Texas. We mentioned it on the recap show 748 00:37:43,200 --> 00:37:46,200 Speaker 1: on Sunday night. Prdue has four different guys that can 749 00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:48,520 Speaker 1: lead them on the offensive ends. And the fact that 750 00:37:48,560 --> 00:37:50,640 Speaker 1: Lawyer got a lot of confidence win in a sales 751 00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,160 Speaker 1: shot eight for twelve from three in the first two rounds. 752 00:37:53,160 --> 00:37:54,840 Speaker 1: I think he needed a little bit of that, and 753 00:37:54,960 --> 00:37:57,320 Speaker 1: Kluff having done so much in the Big Ten tournament, 754 00:37:57,320 --> 00:37:59,600 Speaker 1: they didn't need him through those first two games. I 755 00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:02,680 Speaker 1: think this is opportunity to be really impactful in so 756 00:38:02,719 --> 00:38:05,600 Speaker 1: many different ways. The other piece of it, like I said, 757 00:38:05,640 --> 00:38:09,280 Speaker 1: I'm going to be on Illinois plus the points against Houston. 758 00:38:09,640 --> 00:38:13,640 Speaker 1: I just think that the range of outcomes and their 759 00:38:13,680 --> 00:38:17,040 Speaker 1: ability to storm back with their perimeter shooting. There's a 760 00:38:17,040 --> 00:38:18,920 Speaker 1: lot of teams that if you get down six or 761 00:38:18,960 --> 00:38:21,480 Speaker 1: seven to Houston, it feels more like twelve or fifteen 762 00:38:21,880 --> 00:38:23,279 Speaker 1: they are one of the few teams in the entire 763 00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,799 Speaker 1: country that the ammunition. So I don't think at any 764 00:38:25,800 --> 00:38:28,160 Speaker 1: point you're going to be drawing dead catching points with 765 00:38:28,200 --> 00:38:30,400 Speaker 1: the fighting line. I so, but if I had a 766 00:38:30,440 --> 00:38:32,319 Speaker 1: stack it, I would say Purdue at the top of 767 00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:33,600 Speaker 1: the list. If you can get six and a half 768 00:38:33,680 --> 00:38:35,440 Speaker 1: or seven, and then Illinois plus the. 769 00:38:35,360 --> 00:38:38,799 Speaker 2: Points, doc you anything you want have for Thursday. 770 00:38:38,880 --> 00:38:39,680 Speaker 1: Yeah, I like Purdue. 771 00:38:39,719 --> 00:38:41,840 Speaker 3: I mean, if we walk through Texas's path, there's a 772 00:38:41,920 --> 00:38:44,360 Speaker 3: chance they're a bit over their skis here really fortunate 773 00:38:44,360 --> 00:38:46,840 Speaker 3: to face an NC State team that has so many holes. 774 00:38:46,880 --> 00:38:49,080 Speaker 3: We saw it all season down the stretch for the 775 00:38:49,120 --> 00:38:52,560 Speaker 3: wolf Pack, but then they catch Byu who was banged 776 00:38:52,640 --> 00:38:55,480 Speaker 3: up no Richie Saunders, and that team really suffered badly 777 00:38:55,560 --> 00:38:57,240 Speaker 3: as a result on both ends of the floor. 778 00:38:57,440 --> 00:38:58,880 Speaker 1: And even Gonzaga was banged up. 779 00:38:58,880 --> 00:39:01,200 Speaker 3: I mean, braydon Huff we know out, but even Braden 780 00:39:01,239 --> 00:39:03,879 Speaker 3: Smith was injured against Santa Clara played just two minutes 781 00:39:03,920 --> 00:39:07,239 Speaker 3: against Kennesaw and was in effective the entire tournament. In 782 00:39:07,320 --> 00:39:11,000 Speaker 3: Assante went down and was ineffective after be tweaking an injury, 783 00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:13,480 Speaker 3: And so I just feel like Texas has had some 784 00:39:13,800 --> 00:39:16,800 Speaker 3: fortuitous breaks go their way with their opponents in the personnel. 785 00:39:17,320 --> 00:39:20,640 Speaker 2: But yeah, and Kazager's Uyu were overseated because Gonzagie's is 786 00:39:20,680 --> 00:39:22,839 Speaker 2: not the same team without huff Eyu's not the same 787 00:39:22,880 --> 00:39:23,960 Speaker 2: team without Saunders. 788 00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:27,720 Speaker 3: Yeah, and there's a real chance Purdues offense can torch 789 00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:31,160 Speaker 3: these guys defensively. I think when you look at what 790 00:39:31,280 --> 00:39:33,600 Speaker 3: Purdue's problem was, they went through a little bit of 791 00:39:33,600 --> 00:39:35,640 Speaker 3: a mid season loll and it was their offense not 792 00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:38,120 Speaker 3: making shots. But when you look at Smith and you 793 00:39:38,120 --> 00:39:40,040 Speaker 3: look at Tray Coffman, Renn and how he's been playing 794 00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:43,160 Speaker 3: during this tournament, Fletcher Lawyer has been baring the long ball, 795 00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:46,120 Speaker 3: It's like this Purdue offense is just such a well 796 00:39:46,160 --> 00:39:48,239 Speaker 3: oiled machine right now. I think it's really going to 797 00:39:48,280 --> 00:39:50,839 Speaker 3: be tough for Texas to match that. And I think 798 00:39:50,880 --> 00:39:53,640 Speaker 3: Purdue's defensive skill set can take away what Texas wants 799 00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:56,719 Speaker 3: to do operating out of the post. So I like 800 00:39:56,800 --> 00:39:58,640 Speaker 3: the look laying six and a half with Purdue here. 801 00:39:59,520 --> 00:40:07,719 Speaker 2: Yeah, coverage against Purdue and Smith is not ideal. All right, 802 00:40:07,800 --> 00:40:13,880 Speaker 2: let's recap Friday Sweet sixteen action. Just say what you like. 803 00:40:14,320 --> 00:40:19,320 Speaker 2: You can go in any order. Calbury's you can recap props, total, 804 00:40:19,360 --> 00:40:20,440 Speaker 2: switch sides whatever you like. 805 00:40:21,160 --> 00:40:23,880 Speaker 1: Saint John's money line five to two over Duke. I 806 00:40:23,960 --> 00:40:25,960 Speaker 1: like the terrorist read you know over twenty two and 807 00:40:26,000 --> 00:40:27,920 Speaker 1: a half. As of recording, you're gonna have to lay 808 00:40:27,960 --> 00:40:29,960 Speaker 1: little juice minus one twenty five. I think it's worth 809 00:40:29,960 --> 00:40:32,280 Speaker 1: it as opposed to playing it at you know, plus 810 00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:35,640 Speaker 1: one hundred at twenty four. The Wolverines hit triple digits 811 00:40:35,680 --> 00:40:39,000 Speaker 1: against Alabama, that's almost five to two, So make sure 812 00:40:39,040 --> 00:40:41,480 Speaker 1: to shop around there get the best number. If Alabama 813 00:40:41,600 --> 00:40:43,719 Speaker 1: has to speed them up to try to play their 814 00:40:43,760 --> 00:40:45,640 Speaker 1: their brand of basketball, I think that just plays right 815 00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:48,920 Speaker 1: into Michigan's hands. And then finally Aments over twenty and 816 00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:51,360 Speaker 1: a half points and rebounds. I also just logged in 817 00:40:51,360 --> 00:40:54,160 Speaker 1: the Action Network gap A remindered everybody subscribed to Action 818 00:40:54,280 --> 00:40:55,920 Speaker 1: pro because you're gonna get the best bets at the 819 00:40:55,960 --> 00:40:58,239 Speaker 1: best number. I like Tennessee plus the four and a 820 00:40:58,280 --> 00:41:01,800 Speaker 1: half and then parlay it with Aments over on that combo. 821 00:41:02,120 --> 00:41:04,879 Speaker 2: I'm going to check the payout on that. 822 00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:08,920 Speaker 1: It is plus two to seventy five. So I think 823 00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:11,160 Speaker 1: if he has a big game and they're catching those points, 824 00:41:11,160 --> 00:41:13,560 Speaker 1: I think that's a correlated event. So I'm happy that 825 00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:15,360 Speaker 1: you can get that out in the in the market 826 00:41:15,400 --> 00:41:15,920 Speaker 1: at that number. 827 00:41:16,400 --> 00:41:17,399 Speaker 2: Duck quickly goat. 828 00:41:17,480 --> 00:41:19,560 Speaker 3: Yeah, Saint John's duke under one forty two and a 829 00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:22,120 Speaker 3: half is a play. I'm going to look live in 830 00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:24,319 Speaker 3: the Michigan game to try to pluck Michigan lay in 831 00:41:24,320 --> 00:41:27,160 Speaker 3: a little less there or potentially a live under. I 832 00:41:27,280 --> 00:41:29,359 Speaker 3: like the under in Michigan state Yukon at one thirty 833 00:41:29,400 --> 00:41:31,680 Speaker 3: six and a half and Tennessee plus four and a 834 00:41:31,719 --> 00:41:34,319 Speaker 3: half is very very close, and we'll see that come 835 00:41:34,360 --> 00:41:36,120 Speaker 3: across here later on this week. 836 00:41:36,920 --> 00:41:40,480 Speaker 2: Yeah, my favorite two bets are Yukon front cheap money 837 00:41:40,560 --> 00:41:42,879 Speaker 2: line one one and a half is fine, and then 838 00:41:42,960 --> 00:41:45,279 Speaker 2: Tennessee plus four and a half. I don't mind. If 839 00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:47,160 Speaker 2: I had to bet that duke Saint John's game right now, 840 00:41:47,160 --> 00:41:50,160 Speaker 2: I would side with you. Duck in the under Michigan 841 00:41:50,200 --> 00:41:52,759 Speaker 2: Alban I don't have anything pregame. I will be also 842 00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:57,080 Speaker 2: looking live there, so good stuff there. We'll be live show. 843 00:41:57,080 --> 00:41:59,080 Speaker 2: By the way, we'll cover the Elite eight Saturday, ten 844 00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:02,480 Speaker 2: thirty am Eastern. Make sure you check that out. As 845 00:42:02,480 --> 00:42:07,279 Speaker 2: I mentioned before, Greg Christian and myself already did the 846 00:42:07,360 --> 00:42:09,560 Speaker 2: Thursday slate, So go listen to that if you haven't, 847 00:42:09,600 --> 00:42:12,880 Speaker 2: appreciate Duck and Mike for joining me. Thanks to our 848 00:42:12,920 --> 00:42:16,600 Speaker 2: producers on the back end, shout out David. Most importantly, 849 00:42:16,600 --> 00:42:18,399 Speaker 2: thanks to all of you for tuning in. Make sure 850 00:42:18,400 --> 00:42:20,360 Speaker 2: you subscribe on Subscribe, Subscribe tel friend on Enemy Know 851 00:42:20,400 --> 00:42:22,120 Speaker 2: the Drill. Leave a five star review if you have 852 00:42:22,680 --> 00:42:24,919 Speaker 2: a chance. Follow all of our bets on the award 853 00:42:24,920 --> 00:42:27,560 Speaker 2: winning Action Network app. Have tons of coverage there as 854 00:42:27,600 --> 00:42:30,480 Speaker 2: well as far as write ups for the game. I'll 855 00:42:30,520 --> 00:42:33,239 Speaker 2: be doing mine right after this. Thanks again for tuning in. 856 00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:36,439 Speaker 2: Good luck on all of your wagers. Hopefully these next 857 00:42:36,440 --> 00:42:39,560 Speaker 2: two days go by fast for you, then they will 858 00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:42,879 Speaker 2: for me. This is a painful tortures wait but can't 859 00:42:42,880 --> 00:42:46,120 Speaker 2: wait for the games and we'll see you later this week. 860 00:42:46,239 --> 00:43:03,680 Speaker 4: Cheers. 861 00:43:04,360 --> 00:43:08,880 Speaker 1: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or 862 00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:11,680 Speaker 1: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is 863 00:43:11,719 --> 00:43:14,840 Speaker 1: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred Gambler