1 00:00:09,560 --> 00:00:12,920 Speaker 1: Hello, and welcome to another episode of the Odd Thoughts Podcast. 2 00:00:12,960 --> 00:00:17,080 Speaker 1: I'm Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Wisenthal. So, Joe, did 3 00:00:17,079 --> 00:00:20,960 Speaker 1: you know I went to Amsterdam this summer. I think 4 00:00:21,000 --> 00:00:26,720 Speaker 1: I recall seeing some instagrams that look pretty awesome. Okay, well, yes, 5 00:00:26,800 --> 00:00:30,800 Speaker 1: the instagrams were awesome because it's a really gorgeous city. Um, 6 00:00:30,800 --> 00:00:35,200 Speaker 1: but I gotta say they take flowers pretty seriously there. 7 00:00:35,760 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure that's one of the things too that 8 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,519 Speaker 1: I remember from your instagram, Like, and that's sort of 9 00:00:41,560 --> 00:00:44,680 Speaker 1: like they're sort of famous for that, like just gorgeous, 10 00:00:44,960 --> 00:00:52,560 Speaker 1: gorgeous horticulture, horticulture of all types. Yeah, but two lips 11 00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 1: is clearly a big part of that in Amsterdam. In 12 00:00:55,760 --> 00:00:59,560 Speaker 1: Holland is famous for growing varieties of tulips and an 13 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:02,280 Speaker 1: amster um. They even have a tulip museum that I 14 00:01:02,320 --> 00:01:05,119 Speaker 1: actually went to. I kind of think I know where 15 00:01:05,120 --> 00:01:08,320 Speaker 1: we're going with this, because we're still part of our 16 00:01:08,440 --> 00:01:12,560 Speaker 1: our Bubble series of episodes where we look at famous 17 00:01:12,600 --> 00:01:16,679 Speaker 1: bubbles throughout history, and of course you're talking about Amsterdam tulips. 18 00:01:17,360 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: That's right, And we actually already teased this one in 19 00:01:20,280 --> 00:01:23,199 Speaker 1: some of our previous episodes. I think I actually called 20 00:01:23,200 --> 00:01:28,600 Speaker 1: it the quintessential financial bubble, which isn't entirely correct, I 21 00:01:28,640 --> 00:01:32,240 Speaker 1: have to say, because although tulip Mania has a reputation 22 00:01:32,600 --> 00:01:36,160 Speaker 1: as one of the first ever financial asset bubbles, there 23 00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:39,080 Speaker 1: are a lot of people that take issue with that 24 00:01:39,160 --> 00:01:42,120 Speaker 1: description and actually say it wasn't a bubble at all. 25 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:46,800 Speaker 1: It was a rational investing behavior for the time. Yeah, 26 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:50,320 Speaker 1: it's very controversial because, first of all, it is in 27 00:01:50,320 --> 00:01:53,320 Speaker 1: in this sort of pop culture since probably the quintessential bubble. 28 00:01:53,320 --> 00:01:58,120 Speaker 1: Whenever you talk about another bubble, you always hear people say, oh, 29 00:01:58,160 --> 00:02:00,480 Speaker 1: this is Tulips all over again. So I when you know, 30 00:02:00,520 --> 00:02:03,520 Speaker 1: when we talked about the beanie baby bubble on an 31 00:02:03,520 --> 00:02:05,680 Speaker 1: episode long time ago, like oh, this is the new 32 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,640 Speaker 1: uh tulips whatever it is, people would just sort of 33 00:02:08,680 --> 00:02:13,320 Speaker 1: no tulips. But it is a very controversial episode throughout history. 34 00:02:13,360 --> 00:02:16,640 Speaker 1: Obviously it was prior to a lot of the financial press, 35 00:02:16,680 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 1: so there's still a lot of examination of what really happened. Yeah, 36 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:23,000 Speaker 1: and um, let me just lay the scene, I guess 37 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:27,000 Speaker 1: before we dig into it. So in the sixteen hundreds, 38 00:02:27,320 --> 00:02:30,400 Speaker 1: tulips became this massive thing in Holland. As we all know, 39 00:02:30,520 --> 00:02:34,800 Speaker 1: and there are these famous statistics about a single rare 40 00:02:35,000 --> 00:02:39,240 Speaker 1: bulb trading for the price of a whole house in Amsterdam, 41 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:43,520 Speaker 1: or one bulb being worth twelve acres of land, that 42 00:02:43,680 --> 00:02:46,640 Speaker 1: sort of thing. Um, And when we look at it retrospectively, 43 00:02:46,720 --> 00:02:49,200 Speaker 1: we think, why in the world where people paying that 44 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:53,160 Speaker 1: kind of money for what was basically an ephemeral thing. Right, 45 00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:55,040 Speaker 1: you have the tulip. It lasts for a little while, 46 00:02:55,120 --> 00:02:57,480 Speaker 1: but then eventually the flower dies and unless you grow 47 00:02:57,520 --> 00:03:00,080 Speaker 1: some more tulips out of it, it's this thing. It 48 00:03:00,160 --> 00:03:03,560 Speaker 1: just passes by really quickly. That's absolutely right. But you know, 49 00:03:03,639 --> 00:03:07,360 Speaker 1: like it's funny because obviously supposedly people paid all this 50 00:03:07,400 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 1: price for tulip bulbs. But they are really beautiful, so 51 00:03:10,320 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 1: sometimes I wonder if he is worth it. I mean, 52 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:14,600 Speaker 1: they're really nice, and you have to figure, like most 53 00:03:14,600 --> 00:03:17,680 Speaker 1: things didn't look very good back then, you know, everything 54 00:03:17,840 --> 00:03:20,639 Speaker 1: sort of grimy and life was dirty, like maybe it 55 00:03:20,720 --> 00:03:24,120 Speaker 1: was worth it. That's the romantic in YouTube. All right, 56 00:03:24,639 --> 00:03:27,080 Speaker 1: So we're actually going to look at the tulip bubble today, 57 00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:29,079 Speaker 1: but we're going to look at it from a slightly 58 00:03:29,400 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: different angle. Um. Never let it be said that we 59 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:36,080 Speaker 1: don't bring you something, uh, something unique on the All 60 00:03:36,160 --> 00:03:38,920 Speaker 1: Thoughts podcast today, we're actually going to be looking at 61 00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:43,320 Speaker 1: the Tulip bubble from a sort of Austrian school of 62 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:47,480 Speaker 1: economics theory. This should be good. So we're taking one 63 00:03:47,480 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: of the most sort of controversial bubbles and we're going 64 00:03:50,360 --> 00:03:53,840 Speaker 1: to look at it through the lens of perhaps one 65 00:03:53,880 --> 00:03:57,920 Speaker 1: of the most polarizing schools of economics. So I feel 66 00:03:57,960 --> 00:04:00,120 Speaker 1: like that should be a that's a win combination and 67 00:04:00,200 --> 00:04:02,720 Speaker 1: right there. Yeah, And can I just say the Austrian 68 00:04:02,760 --> 00:04:05,320 Speaker 1: school of economics is the only one that my dad, 69 00:04:05,400 --> 00:04:09,600 Speaker 1: who is my barometer for all things sort of mainstream America, 70 00:04:09,680 --> 00:04:11,760 Speaker 1: has ever asked me about. He never asked me about 71 00:04:11,840 --> 00:04:15,720 Speaker 1: canes or monetarism or anything like that. Only the Austrian 72 00:04:15,720 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 1: school economics. I suspect to like this episode. Then, yeah, 73 00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,840 Speaker 1: all right with us to discuss the Tulip bubble is 74 00:04:23,080 --> 00:04:26,599 Speaker 1: Doug French. He is the author of a book called 75 00:04:26,680 --> 00:04:31,000 Speaker 1: Early Speculative Bubbles and Increases in the Money Supply. So 76 00:04:31,080 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 1: you can sense the Austrian school right there in the title. Doug, 77 00:04:45,520 --> 00:04:48,440 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us today. It's my pleasure. 78 00:04:48,520 --> 00:04:51,280 Speaker 1: Joe and Tracy. Let's start with you know, we were 79 00:04:51,360 --> 00:04:56,160 Speaker 1: describing the tulip bubble as the sort of classical market bubble. 80 00:04:56,520 --> 00:05:00,279 Speaker 1: Walk us through some of the mainstream theories behind mind 81 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:05,599 Speaker 1: why it actually happened. Well, the mainstream theory is typically 82 00:05:06,560 --> 00:05:10,640 Speaker 1: a gentleman by the name of the Gerber, who has 83 00:05:10,680 --> 00:05:14,240 Speaker 1: done a lot of work on to Lokmania, and his 84 00:05:14,360 --> 00:05:19,160 Speaker 1: view is that the rarer bulbs tended to trade higher 85 00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:23,159 Speaker 1: than the more common bulbs, and therefore, you know, it 86 00:05:23,279 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 1: was very rational that people would you know, trade up 87 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:31,520 Speaker 1: to a very high price these more rare bubbles. Her 88 00:05:31,760 --> 00:05:36,360 Speaker 1: these more rare bulbs, I should say. He also would 89 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:40,719 Speaker 1: throw in the idea that there was a plague and 90 00:05:40,839 --> 00:05:46,680 Speaker 1: that essentially this was it was kness, animal spirits in 91 00:05:46,720 --> 00:05:49,480 Speaker 1: a way that people were just throwing caution to the wind. 92 00:05:49,520 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: We're all going to die from the plague anyway, so 93 00:05:51,880 --> 00:05:56,479 Speaker 1: let's let's trade in trade in tulips. So that was 94 00:05:56,960 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 1: kind of Gerber's view. Another view is a woman by 95 00:06:01,720 --> 00:06:04,680 Speaker 1: the name of Van Bulgar. She wrote a book to 96 00:06:04,920 --> 00:06:09,320 Speaker 1: let Mania there's fairly recent two thousand and seven, and 97 00:06:09,400 --> 00:06:12,560 Speaker 1: she said this is very limited and there were only 98 00:06:12,600 --> 00:06:16,320 Speaker 1: really about four hundred families who were trading involves and 99 00:06:16,400 --> 00:06:23,279 Speaker 1: it was an extension of their art collections. Essentially, she 100 00:06:23,400 --> 00:06:26,760 Speaker 1: believed that it was really no big deal. A few 101 00:06:26,800 --> 00:06:30,800 Speaker 1: people were trading in these bulbs and no one was 102 00:06:30,880 --> 00:06:33,800 Speaker 1: hurt by it. There was no big financial crash that 103 00:06:34,000 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: we saw someone to say two thousand and two thousand nine, 104 00:06:37,400 --> 00:06:41,480 Speaker 1: and in the United States after the housing bubbles. So um, 105 00:06:41,800 --> 00:06:46,920 Speaker 1: those are generally the it's it's viewed as a curiosity. UM. 106 00:06:46,960 --> 00:06:52,200 Speaker 1: In fact, Charles kenner Barger, who who wrote on manias 107 00:06:52,320 --> 00:06:59,359 Speaker 1: and crashes, um, he he refers to the two let 108 00:06:59,440 --> 00:07:05,880 Speaker 1: Mania is really the first uh Mania, first speckled Mania. 109 00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:10,920 Speaker 1: But he said that it lacked the the financial framework 110 00:07:11,040 --> 00:07:15,320 Speaker 1: that you normally would have. And of course that's when 111 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:20,240 Speaker 1: when I did my work onto let Mania, looking at 112 00:07:20,280 --> 00:07:24,080 Speaker 1: it through the Austrian lens, as you put it, UM, 113 00:07:24,200 --> 00:07:26,960 Speaker 1: I found out that there was a financial aspect to 114 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:33,520 Speaker 1: this and um, and that's where the Austrians picked this up. So, Doug, 115 00:07:33,600 --> 00:07:36,840 Speaker 1: I want to ask you, of course, what you see 116 00:07:36,840 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: as the seeds of to Lippmania. But before I do that, 117 00:07:41,800 --> 00:07:46,520 Speaker 1: for our listeners who are perhaps unfamiliar, give us the 118 00:07:46,680 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 1: sort of nineties second characterization of what what Austrian economics 119 00:07:51,600 --> 00:07:54,920 Speaker 1: is all about. So that when we talk about examining 120 00:07:55,000 --> 00:07:58,360 Speaker 1: to Lipmania from the Austrian perspective, what are the key 121 00:07:58,480 --> 00:08:03,840 Speaker 1: ideas and tools that you use to examine this historical episode. Well, 122 00:08:03,920 --> 00:08:07,320 Speaker 1: the key idea that I used from the Austrian school 123 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:11,440 Speaker 1: was the Austrian business cycle. And that's what the Austrian 124 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:15,200 Speaker 1: school is is most known for. That's what fa Hiak 125 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:21,560 Speaker 1: shared the Nobel Prize for nine four UM. He extended 126 00:08:21,680 --> 00:08:27,400 Speaker 1: Ludwig von Mesus work on the on the business cycle, 127 00:08:27,560 --> 00:08:31,520 Speaker 1: and that is that business cycles aren't something that just 128 00:08:31,640 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: come and go as most people think. They're like like nature, 129 00:08:36,160 --> 00:08:41,000 Speaker 1: like the seasons, things like that. It has to do 130 00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:46,680 Speaker 1: with the government intervention um in the money supply, and 131 00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 1: when in the modern debut of this, the Federal Reserve 132 00:08:51,880 --> 00:08:57,920 Speaker 1: lowers interest rates, expands the money supply, and uh malinvestments 133 00:08:57,960 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 1: are created. In other words, entrepreneurs are fooled by the 134 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:04,560 Speaker 1: low interest rates. They believe that there's a lot of 135 00:09:04,600 --> 00:09:09,160 Speaker 1: savings out there. They believe that there's tremendous need for 136 00:09:09,320 --> 00:09:15,840 Speaker 1: what the Austrians would call higher end UH investments, say land, 137 00:09:16,480 --> 00:09:22,280 Speaker 1: say housing subdivisions, say casinos, things like that, and therefore 138 00:09:22,440 --> 00:09:27,920 Speaker 1: you you get money rolling into uh uh those sorts 139 00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:35,160 Speaker 1: of investments and uh eventually the demand that the entrepreneurs 140 00:09:35,160 --> 00:09:39,680 Speaker 1: thought collectively was there ends up not being there. And 141 00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:44,240 Speaker 1: we see this, just this mass number of errors all 142 00:09:44,280 --> 00:09:47,520 Speaker 1: at once. You wouldn't see this in capitalism. You see 143 00:09:47,520 --> 00:09:52,480 Speaker 1: bankruptcies all the time when um, when entrepreneurs are not 144 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 1: are not good at what they're doing. But in a 145 00:09:56,720 --> 00:10:02,000 Speaker 1: boom and a bust, booms telling elevate those that aren't 146 00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:06,880 Speaker 1: very good um at at development, and it exposes them 147 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: when the crash comes. That's uh, I think what the 148 00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:17,520 Speaker 1: Austrian school is most most known for. And just as 149 00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:20,760 Speaker 1: a note, the book I wrote, the book that we 150 00:10:20,800 --> 00:10:25,840 Speaker 1: referred to earlier, I wrote under the direction of Murray Rothbard, 151 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:30,120 Speaker 1: who was a student of Ludwig van Mesas. So I'm 152 00:10:30,200 --> 00:10:36,320 Speaker 1: just carrying on um very long and u and famous tradition. 153 00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,960 Speaker 1: So walk us through. So that was a great overview, 154 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:44,320 Speaker 1: but walk us through how that framework informs your thinking 155 00:10:44,360 --> 00:10:49,000 Speaker 1: about the tulip bubble. Well, as I looked at as 156 00:10:49,040 --> 00:10:53,520 Speaker 1: I looked at tulip mania UM, and I looked at 157 00:10:53,600 --> 00:10:56,960 Speaker 1: obviously everyone's work, and you kind of start with a 158 00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:59,959 Speaker 1: book that a lot of people have heard of extraordinar 159 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:03,839 Speaker 1: are any popular delusions and the Madness of crowds. It's 160 00:11:03,840 --> 00:11:09,319 Speaker 1: an eight book by Charles Mackay, and people have been 161 00:11:09,360 --> 00:11:13,920 Speaker 1: reading this for, you know, for decades, and uh it 162 00:11:14,040 --> 00:11:18,280 Speaker 1: has a few pages in it about to LITMANI and 163 00:11:18,400 --> 00:11:22,440 Speaker 1: that's generally where people start. And the idea is that 164 00:11:22,720 --> 00:11:25,960 Speaker 1: suddenly people were trading into la bulbs, whether they be 165 00:11:26,080 --> 00:11:29,760 Speaker 1: chimney sweeps or whether they be government officials or whatever 166 00:11:29,800 --> 00:11:33,600 Speaker 1: they may be. And it just you start thinking, well, 167 00:11:33,800 --> 00:11:39,600 Speaker 1: is this is this uh animal spirits in the Keynesian view, 168 00:11:39,960 --> 00:11:45,080 Speaker 1: is it doesn't make sense? In the rational expectations view 169 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:49,760 Speaker 1: of a of a Gerber who is essentially g it 170 00:11:49,880 --> 00:11:54,920 Speaker 1: made perfect sense. Uh, supply and demand. There were less 171 00:11:54,920 --> 00:11:59,000 Speaker 1: supply of the of the bulbs that were rare. They 172 00:11:59,040 --> 00:12:02,720 Speaker 1: are more supplied other boats, and and those prices didn't 173 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:07,520 Speaker 1: go up. But I looked for another cause. And it 174 00:12:07,559 --> 00:12:12,880 Speaker 1: turns out that the money supply in Amsterdam during Tolmania 175 00:12:13,400 --> 00:12:18,280 Speaker 1: exploded and exploded for a good reason. It was the 176 00:12:18,320 --> 00:12:23,280 Speaker 1: Bank of Amsterdam was created, and not that it created 177 00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:27,560 Speaker 1: money out of nowhere like modern central banks do. It 178 00:12:27,720 --> 00:12:32,680 Speaker 1: actually offered something called free coinage and free coinage was 179 00:12:33,120 --> 00:12:38,120 Speaker 1: all money from Europe was flooding into Amsterdam because of 180 00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:42,920 Speaker 1: gold and silver discoveries in the New World. UH pirates 181 00:12:43,000 --> 00:12:48,520 Speaker 1: were collecting booty on the high seas. There were coins 182 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:53,880 Speaker 1: that had been debauched by various kings throughout Europe and 183 00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:58,360 Speaker 1: they were all flooding into Amsterdam because the Bank of 184 00:12:58,360 --> 00:13:02,800 Speaker 1: Amsterdam would in them for little or no fee. And 185 00:13:02,840 --> 00:13:08,440 Speaker 1: that was essentially a that was essentially what created a 186 00:13:08,600 --> 00:13:11,680 Speaker 1: huge boom and the money supply. And when I say 187 00:13:11,720 --> 00:13:15,880 Speaker 1: a huge boom, I mean increase in the supply of 188 00:13:15,960 --> 00:13:25,559 Speaker 1: money right before UH to Lootmania occurred the Dutch economy. 189 00:13:26,280 --> 00:13:32,720 Speaker 1: Obviously Amsterdam's very well located to Seaport, there was much 190 00:13:32,760 --> 00:13:37,240 Speaker 1: commerce going on there. It began to boom in one 191 00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:42,560 Speaker 1: and thirty two. And with all this money UH flowing 192 00:13:42,640 --> 00:13:49,000 Speaker 1: into the economy, it created a a ripe environment for 193 00:13:49,480 --> 00:13:54,960 Speaker 1: speculation UH from all types of people, whether they be 194 00:13:55,080 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 1: the gold guards, Mennonite art collectors, or whether they I'm 195 00:14:01,880 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 1: not sure there were necessarily chimneys, sweets that we're buying balls, 196 00:14:06,440 --> 00:14:10,400 Speaker 1: but all sorts of people UH as they want to 197 00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:14,319 Speaker 1: do when when things are going good, they want to 198 00:14:14,320 --> 00:14:28,120 Speaker 1: speculate and trade and make a profit. So, Doug, here 199 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:31,760 Speaker 1: is a question that I have and I've had this 200 00:14:31,920 --> 00:14:35,960 Speaker 1: thought in regards to sort of Austrian theories of bubbles 201 00:14:36,040 --> 00:14:39,560 Speaker 1: even more even more in the contemporary setting. So you 202 00:14:39,720 --> 00:14:44,480 Speaker 1: draw the line between the central Bank or in that case, 203 00:14:44,480 --> 00:14:47,560 Speaker 1: the Bank of Amsterdam creating some sort of ultra loose 204 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:51,680 Speaker 1: monetary conditions that brings in the conditions where people want 205 00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:57,440 Speaker 1: to speculate. But what I don't fully understand is why 206 00:14:57,560 --> 00:15:02,680 Speaker 1: does it go to these activities that appear so bubbly. 207 00:15:02,800 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: So it's one thing to say, Okay, that's going to 208 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:09,200 Speaker 1: create a lot of activity, but why couldn't it theoretically 209 00:15:09,560 --> 00:15:13,720 Speaker 1: go to um more conventional enterprises like opening up you know, 210 00:15:13,760 --> 00:15:17,760 Speaker 1: building new uh building new ships or sort of traditional channels. 211 00:15:17,800 --> 00:15:21,240 Speaker 1: Why does it go towards uh, you know, flipping these assets, 212 00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:28,680 Speaker 1: very speculative vehicles because more people can participate UM in 213 00:15:28,800 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: trading tula bolts, whereas it would have been more difficult too. 214 00:15:33,120 --> 00:15:36,840 Speaker 1: And I'm sure there was more money was funneled into 215 00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:40,440 Speaker 1: into shipping, but not not a lot of people. Could 216 00:15:42,040 --> 00:15:45,920 Speaker 1: you know, flip clipper ships, uh if you will at 217 00:15:45,920 --> 00:15:48,800 Speaker 1: the time, but you know, if you could get get 218 00:15:48,920 --> 00:15:52,840 Speaker 1: a hold of a tulip here there, Um you might 219 00:15:52,880 --> 00:15:56,800 Speaker 1: be able to um, you might be able to flip 220 00:15:56,840 --> 00:16:02,120 Speaker 1: it by the next the more popular tulip and trade 221 00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:06,200 Speaker 1: from there. These uh, these traits took place in taverns. 222 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:13,160 Speaker 1: They were called colleges. Interestingly enough, um, the Dutch were 223 00:16:13,240 --> 00:16:18,680 Speaker 1: already very astute in futures markets, in the grains and 224 00:16:18,760 --> 00:16:24,000 Speaker 1: so on, So futures market took hold very quickly. And 225 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:27,280 Speaker 1: as you can imagine, they weren't trading flowers. They were 226 00:16:27,320 --> 00:16:30,200 Speaker 1: trading the bulbs, and the bulbs were in the ground, 227 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:34,840 Speaker 1: so before ever anybody ever saw the flower, it was 228 00:16:34,920 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: being bought and sold many different times. And so I 229 00:16:38,640 --> 00:16:41,800 Speaker 1: think when when people think of Tulamania, they think, oh, 230 00:16:41,880 --> 00:16:45,040 Speaker 1: you know, they were trading these flowers that we're only 231 00:16:45,080 --> 00:16:47,200 Speaker 1: going to be in bloom for a week or whatever. 232 00:16:48,320 --> 00:16:51,240 Speaker 1: But no, they were trading the bulbs that were that 233 00:16:51,320 --> 00:16:55,400 Speaker 1: were in the ground, uh, you know, months before before 234 00:16:55,400 --> 00:16:57,040 Speaker 1: they would see them. And that's why it was a 235 00:16:57,120 --> 00:17:02,560 Speaker 1: fairly short short term. Episode went from essentially six thirty 236 00:17:02,600 --> 00:17:06,920 Speaker 1: four to February of thirty seven. But at the end 237 00:17:07,040 --> 00:17:10,080 Speaker 1: you had this huge blow off top where the wet 238 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:14,600 Speaker 1: wheat crew and bulb went up thirty five times in 239 00:17:14,680 --> 00:17:18,439 Speaker 1: the space of a month and then crashed, you know, 240 00:17:18,520 --> 00:17:23,159 Speaker 1: in one single day. But that's an answer to your question. Uh, 241 00:17:23,480 --> 00:17:28,600 Speaker 1: you know, the more people could participate um in a 242 00:17:28,640 --> 00:17:31,640 Speaker 1: trading instrument like a tulip bulb. Also two loops were 243 00:17:31,680 --> 00:17:36,160 Speaker 1: fairly new to Amsterdam, although you know, um, as Tracy said, 244 00:17:36,760 --> 00:17:41,200 Speaker 1: the town is is certainly known for it now. Um. 245 00:17:41,280 --> 00:17:46,800 Speaker 1: And you see pictures in the fields of tulips are extraordinary, 246 00:17:47,600 --> 00:17:51,080 Speaker 1: but they were actually shipped in from from Turkey, in 247 00:17:51,119 --> 00:17:54,080 Speaker 1: the Middle East and other places, so they're a fairly 248 00:17:54,160 --> 00:18:01,040 Speaker 1: new phenomenon um to to Amsterdam at the time. Yes, 249 00:18:01,160 --> 00:18:03,879 Speaker 1: and one thing I learned from the Amsterdam Tulip Museum 250 00:18:03,960 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: is that the tulips were highly associated with Orientalism at 251 00:18:07,840 --> 00:18:10,600 Speaker 1: the time, probably because they were coming through the Middle East. 252 00:18:10,640 --> 00:18:14,040 Speaker 1: So c Joe, I did learn something, Um, I've never 253 00:18:14,160 --> 00:18:19,040 Speaker 1: doubted that something, Uh, Doug, I wanted to ask you 254 00:18:19,480 --> 00:18:23,800 Speaker 1: or just press you on the association between the tulip 255 00:18:23,880 --> 00:18:27,920 Speaker 1: mania and the money supply because you know. One other 256 00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:31,240 Speaker 1: thing I also learned was that the Dutch at the 257 00:18:31,320 --> 00:18:35,240 Speaker 1: time they kind of described this tulip trading as wind handle, 258 00:18:35,400 --> 00:18:40,440 Speaker 1: which means wind trade in Dutch, because no bulbs or 259 00:18:40,520 --> 00:18:43,119 Speaker 1: not many bulbs were actually changing hands. People were just 260 00:18:43,280 --> 00:18:46,720 Speaker 1: kind of trading the futures contracts. So I'm just wondering 261 00:18:46,840 --> 00:18:50,920 Speaker 1: if you're if you're trading this thing, but you're not 262 00:18:51,080 --> 00:18:55,639 Speaker 1: actually trading the underlying what's the association with the money supply? 263 00:18:55,880 --> 00:18:59,360 Speaker 1: Does it track like one for one? No, I don't 264 00:18:59,400 --> 00:19:04,320 Speaker 1: think a track x one for one, but um, it 265 00:19:04,840 --> 00:19:11,399 Speaker 1: does um give people the confidence to um trade in 266 00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:16,800 Speaker 1: in a speculative fashion because there's more money runs into 267 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:22,160 Speaker 1: uh into an economy. Um, and people see their neighbors 268 00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:28,600 Speaker 1: getting rich and certainly uh they want to as well. Uh, 269 00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:32,119 Speaker 1: they're more apt to get involved in this sort of 270 00:19:33,359 --> 00:19:37,280 Speaker 1: sort of speculation. I mean, when you create money, um, 271 00:19:38,160 --> 00:19:42,080 Speaker 1: there's no telling where it would go and um so 272 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:46,320 Speaker 1: um whether it goes into goods and services or where 273 00:19:46,320 --> 00:19:49,720 Speaker 1: there goes into speculation. But then the next step in 274 00:19:49,840 --> 00:19:56,479 Speaker 1: this is that then leverages created people want to essentially borrow. 275 00:19:57,200 --> 00:20:00,320 Speaker 1: And as you point out, these bulls were changing hands 276 00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:06,760 Speaker 1: without really changing hands, just the paper was was changing hands, 277 00:20:06,800 --> 00:20:12,440 Speaker 1: and that was essentially that's essentially the leverage that was involved, 278 00:20:12,560 --> 00:20:18,800 Speaker 1: and that happens in all all speculative bubbles. Um, the 279 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,280 Speaker 1: interest rates went down. When you look at the history 280 00:20:22,320 --> 00:20:27,680 Speaker 1: of interest rates by Homer and Encilla, Um, the Dutch 281 00:20:27,800 --> 00:20:31,800 Speaker 1: interest rates declined sharply. Um. There were a number of 282 00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:36,280 Speaker 1: bankruptcies after this. Uh. In my book, UM, you know, 283 00:20:36,440 --> 00:20:39,480 Speaker 1: if it was if people were just trading a few 284 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:43,359 Speaker 1: evolves and and uh G it didn't work out and 285 00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:46,040 Speaker 1: they all went on about their business, then why did 286 00:20:46,119 --> 00:20:51,120 Speaker 1: the number of bankruptcies in Amsterdam double from nine six 287 00:20:52,080 --> 00:20:57,960 Speaker 1: to sixteen thirty seven. So clearly people were putting a 288 00:20:58,119 --> 00:21:04,359 Speaker 1: lot of resources into speculating in these uh in these bubbles, 289 00:21:04,440 --> 00:21:07,440 Speaker 1: and it had a It had a huge effect on 290 00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:12,200 Speaker 1: the economy. And I will say your timing is excellent. 291 00:21:12,320 --> 00:21:13,920 Speaker 1: I don't know if you know this, but there is 292 00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:17,280 Speaker 1: a movie coming out called The Two Little Fever. I 293 00:21:17,280 --> 00:21:19,760 Speaker 1: would just going to say, I've actually seen that movie 294 00:21:19,800 --> 00:21:24,080 Speaker 1: because I saw a a screening for reviewers and I 295 00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,800 Speaker 1: have a review out actually, and so I wanted to 296 00:21:26,880 --> 00:21:29,359 Speaker 1: ask you something about the film, and you talked about 297 00:21:29,440 --> 00:21:30,840 Speaker 1: half of it, but to me was one of the 298 00:21:30,920 --> 00:21:34,760 Speaker 1: most interesting things in there. So as you mentioned, uh, 299 00:21:34,880 --> 00:21:38,360 Speaker 1: and this was depicted in the film. The trading took 300 00:21:38,400 --> 00:21:42,880 Speaker 1: place in taverns, the trading of these essentially tulip bulb futures. 301 00:21:43,280 --> 00:21:45,880 Speaker 1: These were a lot of you know, sort of drunken 302 00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:49,600 Speaker 1: people are very you know, they're they're taverns. However, the 303 00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:53,280 Speaker 1: actual bulbs themselves, and this is according to the film, 304 00:21:53,400 --> 00:21:55,480 Speaker 1: So if I'm wrong on this, please call me out. 305 00:21:56,000 --> 00:22:01,040 Speaker 1: The bulbs themselves were actually uh maintained by nuns in 306 00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:04,480 Speaker 1: an abbey. And so you really have this dichotomy between 307 00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:07,280 Speaker 1: where the finance takes place, which is this sort of 308 00:22:07,400 --> 00:22:13,680 Speaker 1: like dirty, debaucherous tavern, but then the actual product, essentially 309 00:22:13,880 --> 00:22:17,240 Speaker 1: in this house of God. It really showing the h 310 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:22,160 Speaker 1: the secret and the profane meeting together in this trade. Well, 311 00:22:22,280 --> 00:22:26,480 Speaker 1: I think the uh, either the movie make or or 312 00:22:28,040 --> 00:22:32,120 Speaker 1: MS Mogash took a little bit of license there, uh 313 00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:37,840 Speaker 1: where the with where the bulls were stored. I'm but 314 00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:43,879 Speaker 1: I have no uh direct knowledge to refute that. So 315 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:47,680 Speaker 1: possibly it's true, It's just but it is it is 316 00:22:47,720 --> 00:22:52,480 Speaker 1: a guest. But I've read the book. It's a wonderful book, 317 00:22:53,280 --> 00:22:57,800 Speaker 1: and Steven Spielberg had actually bought bought the rights back 318 00:22:57,840 --> 00:23:00,960 Speaker 1: in ninety nine before the book even came out out. Um, 319 00:23:01,080 --> 00:23:03,760 Speaker 1: and then I think it's changed hands similar to the 320 00:23:03,880 --> 00:23:06,920 Speaker 1: changing hands of a of a tula bulb, if you will. 321 00:23:07,440 --> 00:23:11,720 Speaker 1: And tulip Tulip fever has at a hard time getting 322 00:23:11,760 --> 00:23:13,760 Speaker 1: off the ground, if you will. But it has a 323 00:23:13,840 --> 00:23:19,520 Speaker 1: wonderful cast. And um, but I think what it depicts, 324 00:23:20,359 --> 00:23:23,280 Speaker 1: I hope it depicts. And and Joe, maybe you can 325 00:23:23,359 --> 00:23:26,959 Speaker 1: confirm this since you've seen the movie. But this artist 326 00:23:28,600 --> 00:23:32,080 Speaker 1: who has an extraordinary talent, and of course his subject 327 00:23:32,200 --> 00:23:36,000 Speaker 1: is the love of his life and um, and of 328 00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,880 Speaker 1: course that creates tensions since she's married to an old 329 00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:45,600 Speaker 1: evil guy. Um, but he drops his trade to trade 330 00:23:45,640 --> 00:23:47,960 Speaker 1: in tulips. He thinks they're going to get rich and 331 00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:52,360 Speaker 1: live happily ever after trading tulips. And that's what happens 332 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,720 Speaker 1: during booms and bus uh. And I'm sure it happened 333 00:23:55,760 --> 00:23:59,560 Speaker 1: during Tulamania. We saw this in Vegas when houses boomed 334 00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:04,160 Speaker 1: in the Men two thousand's, people who had perfectly reasonable 335 00:24:04,320 --> 00:24:09,640 Speaker 1: jobs suddenly became realtors or house flippers, were um door 336 00:24:10,240 --> 00:24:14,000 Speaker 1: or became mortgage agents. And that's what happens, uh in 337 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:17,400 Speaker 1: all boons. That not only there's not only the trading 338 00:24:17,440 --> 00:24:21,199 Speaker 1: of the bulbs or the trading of the instrument. Uh. 339 00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:26,680 Speaker 1: But but people whose talents are best left for, um, 340 00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 1: other things, they become involved in this boom. And I 341 00:24:31,160 --> 00:24:34,040 Speaker 1: think it portrays that. That's a great point that was 342 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,359 Speaker 1: portrayed in the film, and that didn't click to me 343 00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:38,760 Speaker 1: at the time. But of course, as we've seen through 344 00:24:38,800 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 1: many bubbles in history, it does seem to be a 345 00:24:41,680 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 1: common phenomenon, whether it's day trading in the late nineties, 346 00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:50,680 Speaker 1: house flipping prior to the two thousand and eight financial crisis, 347 00:24:51,040 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 1: whatever it is, there are always stories of people leaving 348 00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:59,159 Speaker 1: their jobs essentially real resources, human resources being sucked out 349 00:24:59,160 --> 00:25:02,359 Speaker 1: of where the most to engage in speculation. And that 350 00:25:02,560 --> 00:25:05,040 Speaker 1: is indeed one of the points in the film. So 351 00:25:05,080 --> 00:25:08,320 Speaker 1: I'm glad you brought that up, because that specific facet 352 00:25:08,480 --> 00:25:13,959 Speaker 1: hadn't clicked. A misallocation of human and financial capital. Absolutely, 353 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:18,320 Speaker 1: they're both malinvestments. You had a malinvestment of of probably 354 00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,919 Speaker 1: too many two loops were planted, um too many two 355 00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:25,720 Speaker 1: loops were cultivated, and then you had the talent of 356 00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:31,280 Speaker 1: individuals being siphoned off into this spacoidive area. And as 357 00:25:31,359 --> 00:25:35,879 Speaker 1: Joe said, the same thing happens in all booms. Now, 358 00:25:36,040 --> 00:25:40,200 Speaker 1: before we go One of the common themes things that 359 00:25:40,320 --> 00:25:42,520 Speaker 1: we see with bubbles is that, you know, they can 360 00:25:42,760 --> 00:25:46,880 Speaker 1: be based on sound fundamentals and they often several years later, 361 00:25:47,040 --> 00:25:50,080 Speaker 1: can justify themselves. So obviously, you know the internet bubble 362 00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:53,240 Speaker 1: of the late nineties, we know the internet did in 363 00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:55,719 Speaker 1: fact turn out to be a big deal. The housing 364 00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:59,840 Speaker 1: bubble did create a large housing stock, and as trace 365 00:26:00,080 --> 00:26:04,880 Speaker 1: you mentioned in the introduction, Amsterdam today, you know it's 366 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:08,439 Speaker 1: still you know, there's a flow, a thriving, beautiful flower 367 00:26:08,520 --> 00:26:12,399 Speaker 1: market still in Amsterdam. So what is the aftermath? Okay, 368 00:26:12,440 --> 00:26:17,080 Speaker 1: then the bubble eventually crashed. You mentioned the bankruptcies. How 369 00:26:17,160 --> 00:26:23,879 Speaker 1: did things eventually stabilize? Well, uh, Amsterdam obviously was a 370 00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:31,840 Speaker 1: city that would eventually continue to thrive. The Bank of Amsterdam, however, changed. 371 00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:36,600 Speaker 1: It had a very hard money policy. As I mentioned, 372 00:26:36,800 --> 00:26:41,400 Speaker 1: free coinage. People would put their money in the bank, um, 373 00:26:41,920 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 1: and so it was a hundred percent in bank, to 374 00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:47,080 Speaker 1: which saw Austrians we we like that sort of thing 375 00:26:47,280 --> 00:26:51,960 Speaker 1: rather than fractionalized banking that we have today. Um. But 376 00:26:52,080 --> 00:26:57,600 Speaker 1: eventually the Bank of Amsterdam would begin to loan out 377 00:26:58,080 --> 00:27:02,320 Speaker 1: their deposits and engage age in fractionalized banking and Uh. 378 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,679 Speaker 1: That Uh, that gave an idea to a gentleman by 379 00:27:06,720 --> 00:27:09,560 Speaker 1: the name of John Law who would create a hundred 380 00:27:09,680 --> 00:27:13,360 Speaker 1: years later, or about a hundred years later, the Mississippi 381 00:27:13,400 --> 00:27:17,080 Speaker 1: Bubble that didn't spawned the south Sea Bubble. Uh. And 382 00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,880 Speaker 1: I'm not sure you've gotten to those episodes yet, but uh, 383 00:27:21,000 --> 00:27:24,920 Speaker 1: actually TULIPMANI in the Bank of Amsterdam is somewhat of 384 00:27:24,960 --> 00:27:28,520 Speaker 1: a genesis for a gentleman named John Law. Well, I 385 00:27:28,600 --> 00:27:32,000 Speaker 1: think that is a perfect way to end it. And Tracy, 386 00:27:32,119 --> 00:27:35,040 Speaker 1: I think we have definitely have an episode that we 387 00:27:35,200 --> 00:27:39,000 Speaker 1: have to do now. Yeah, so many bubbles, so little time. 388 00:27:39,200 --> 00:27:42,760 Speaker 1: Doug French uh, the author of early speculative bubbles and 389 00:27:42,880 --> 00:27:45,119 Speaker 1: increases in the money supply, thank you so much for 390 00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,400 Speaker 1: joining us. Well, thank you, it's been a real pleasure. 391 00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:01,760 Speaker 1: So Joe, I thought that was really fascinating. And I thought, 392 00:28:02,200 --> 00:28:04,359 Speaker 1: you know, even though the Austrian school gets a lot 393 00:28:04,440 --> 00:28:08,080 Speaker 1: of bad press, it's clearly had, you know, something of 394 00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:11,640 Speaker 1: a revival or many people think it was vindicated after 395 00:28:11,720 --> 00:28:14,600 Speaker 1: the two tho financial crisis. So I think it's really 396 00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:18,800 Speaker 1: important to kind of consider some past bubbles, especially a 397 00:28:18,880 --> 00:28:22,800 Speaker 1: bubble as important as the Tulip Mania through that framework. No, 398 00:28:22,920 --> 00:28:25,960 Speaker 1: I totally agree. I I really enjoyed that. And it's interesting, Like, 399 00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:28,800 Speaker 1: I think there's no question that in sort of mainstream 400 00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:33,680 Speaker 1: economic discourse, Austrianism is considered to be crankish and all that, 401 00:28:34,119 --> 00:28:36,480 Speaker 1: But it does seem to be to me that there's 402 00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,440 Speaker 1: like a I would call it a soft Austrianism that 403 00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,160 Speaker 1: is fairly common. I mean, if you go back to 404 00:28:42,280 --> 00:28:46,760 Speaker 1: our episode two weeks ago with Scott Nations, he specifically 405 00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: identified low interest rates as being um something that was 406 00:28:51,960 --> 00:28:56,360 Speaker 1: characteristic of all of the major US stock market bubbles 407 00:28:56,480 --> 00:28:59,120 Speaker 1: and stock market crashes. And I don't think there are 408 00:28:59,200 --> 00:29:02,240 Speaker 1: many people. I think a lot of people who would 409 00:29:02,240 --> 00:29:08,920 Speaker 1: consider themselves mainstream would identify easy financial conditions as being 410 00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:13,160 Speaker 1: an important factor in the rise of many bubbles. Yeah, 411 00:29:13,320 --> 00:29:16,239 Speaker 1: there's a little bit of Austrianism in in all of us, um, 412 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 1: but especially me because I am actually half Austrian. UM. 413 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,720 Speaker 1: But in all honesty, I think that there's an emotional 414 00:29:23,200 --> 00:29:26,480 Speaker 1: allure to the theory, right, Like it kind of touches 415 00:29:26,560 --> 00:29:28,720 Speaker 1: on something that we've spoken about before, which is that 416 00:29:28,840 --> 00:29:31,560 Speaker 1: when you have a bubble, you have this period of 417 00:29:31,760 --> 00:29:35,800 Speaker 1: time where you can make a great fortune very quickly, 418 00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 1: or you can lose a lot of fortune very quickly, 419 00:29:38,480 --> 00:29:42,120 Speaker 1: And that kind of touches on this idea that it's 420 00:29:42,160 --> 00:29:47,480 Speaker 1: sort of all being controlled by expanding or diminishing money supplies. 421 00:29:47,480 --> 00:29:50,360 Speaker 1: So you can see how people would make that connection. 422 00:29:51,280 --> 00:29:53,960 Speaker 1: Totally one of my issues with it, and maybe I 423 00:29:54,000 --> 00:29:56,360 Speaker 1: should have brought up with Doug when he was here, 424 00:29:56,400 --> 00:30:00,160 Speaker 1: because I don't want to criticize the theory that giving 425 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:02,720 Speaker 1: him a chance to respond. I've often found that there's 426 00:30:02,760 --> 00:30:05,400 Speaker 1: a bit of um when all you have is a hammer. 427 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,600 Speaker 1: So you know, it's like there's this very distinct view 428 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:13,240 Speaker 1: that the sort of the errors and the male investments 429 00:30:13,280 --> 00:30:17,760 Speaker 1: in any economy are caused by easy monetary policy. And 430 00:30:17,920 --> 00:30:20,440 Speaker 1: so then there's like I've always thought there's perhaps a 431 00:30:20,480 --> 00:30:23,320 Speaker 1: bit of a you know, going back and sort of 432 00:30:23,440 --> 00:30:27,400 Speaker 1: always finding why it's a monetary policy phenomenon because that's 433 00:30:27,400 --> 00:30:31,040 Speaker 1: where your worldview is based, which you know, and so 434 00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:34,640 Speaker 1: everything sort of gets shoved into that. Nonetheless, I did 435 00:30:34,760 --> 00:30:38,520 Speaker 1: think his perspective is interesting, and either way, the tulip 436 00:30:38,560 --> 00:30:41,200 Speaker 1: bubble is a fun one to discuss. Yeah, and now 437 00:30:41,320 --> 00:30:43,680 Speaker 1: we're well, you've seen it already, but everyone else is 438 00:30:43,720 --> 00:30:46,160 Speaker 1: going to have to go and watch the movie, right, Yeah, 439 00:30:46,200 --> 00:30:49,880 Speaker 1: people should watch it. Look, it's the tulip Mania, it's 440 00:30:50,560 --> 00:30:53,000 Speaker 1: Is it the most amazing film? No? But I'll put 441 00:30:53,040 --> 00:30:55,120 Speaker 1: it this way, if you're an Odd Lots listener, you'll 442 00:30:55,160 --> 00:30:58,000 Speaker 1: probably enjoy it. That's a good way to put it. 443 00:30:58,600 --> 00:31:01,120 Speaker 1: All right, Uh, this is been another edition of the 444 00:31:01,240 --> 00:31:04,200 Speaker 1: Odd Looughts podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. You can follow me 445 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Tracy Alloway and I'm Joe Why Isn't All? 446 00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:11,160 Speaker 1: You can follow me on Twitter at the Stalwart And 447 00:31:11,280 --> 00:31:15,440 Speaker 1: you can follow our producer Sarah Patterson on Twitter at 448 00:31:15,600 --> 00:31:18,440 Speaker 1: Sarah pett With two teas. Thanks for listening.